Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Battle Mage]

hi guys. ill read through now, and get back to you with my thoughts asap.
if there are any pressing issues that require my attention, let me know

[Battle Mage]

ooh i just saw, im about to be lynched lol.
can someone unvote me whilst i reread. also some reasons for the votes would be helpful.
BM

[Battle Mage]

Our decision just got easier, people.

what exactly does that mean?

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

Mgm, please show Dutch consolidarity by voting for Battle Mage.

if its all the same, can you hold on a little while.
Im compiling a case that will hopefully be of some interest to the town-whether i am lynched or not.
BM

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

i believe Stoofer has yet to re-impose the deadline.
and dont worry, im still here, and still completing my full analysis of the game so far.
BM

[Battle Mage]

Thesp hold your horses please. im writing a long analysis of the game, which will hopefully win it for the town. i reccommend in the meantime, you keep your vote where it is. besides, wtf is everyone panicking about a non-existant deadline?

[Battle Mage]

BM's Awesome Game Analysis (BAGA)

CDB randomish votes CES, for a jokey reason, when there is little or no pressure. Possible premature distancing.
After 3 consecutive votes on CES, CDB hastily joins the other significant wagon-on protown AndrewS.
CES is reluctant to concede that CDB could be scum on Page 7.
Sucks up to Thesp-Who is probably protown.
Bandwagons SV-who was (surprise surprise) protown.
Lots of communication between Glork and CES. Im not sure what that means, as I doubt those 2 as scum would be so openly like scumbuddies. Could suggest that Glork is protown.
FoS’s CDB, but only as an afterthought.
Doesn’t cast doubt on SV’s Vig claim. Claims that it can be proven, when CES is experienced enough to realise that this is not necessarily the case. Instead joins the largest bandwagon. Notice that again Glork does exactly the same-Also trying to direct the vig to another protown player (IH this time)
Thesp recommends vigging CDB.
Glork again compliments CES, also declaring another protown player for a Vigging.
Page 17, Thesp makes an effort to show agreement with CES.
Glork hammer Andrews.
In an interesting turn around, CES votes Glork. No pressure on either at the time, so could well be distancing.
Thesp directs suspicion onto CDB.
CDB comments that Glork is scummy. Is very non-committal about CES, adding Fritz to the LoS just to take the pressure of his scumbuddy.
Page 23
CES leaves wagon on Glork, when it looks like Glork might become a lynch candidate.
CES desperately tries to revive a dying wagon on Thesp.
MGM notices that CES shows a strong reluctance to vote for Glork. Page 26.
CES criticises those pushing the Thesp wagon-however Glorks name is suspiciously exempt from this criticism.
Thesp continues to be confident that CDB and Patrick are scum.
Patrick defends Glork from MgM
Glork bickers with CDB about jack-all.
Glork is reluctant to describe Patrick, CES, or MBL as scum. Especially odd that he defends CES, as I hadn’t considered Glork to be reluctant to OMGUS…
CES requests Deadline
Thesp FoS’s CES, and Glork follows suit.
Thesp attacks CDB again, and Glork defends him.
Glork expresses his willingness to kill Thesp rather than No Lynch.
CES claims that the town should lynch as many people as possible, in an effort to help a potential Roleblocker…
CES tries hard to dissuade Zindaras from voting MgM, then when questioned, backtracks.
Thesp switches from CDB to Adele. No reason given.
Adele claims cop, and has innocent on MgM.
CES and Patrick have a protown reaction to the claim.
Glork decides to wagon on Thesp.
CES undermines Thesps case on CDB.
Nobody hammer Thesp. It should be noted that Patrick, Nightfall and Ether all had opportunity to do so, with the latter even stating that she intended to hammer!
Adele’s claim is proven. Note that in contrast to the card, the rules state that all cops are sane, thus MgM is proven town.
Page 35. CES votes Thesp. Thesp votes CDB. Glork criticises Ethers lack of hammer.
Glork also states his willingness to kill Zindaras.
CDB OMGUSes Thesp.
MgM votes Patrick.
Glork picks up on CES’s scumminess, but decides to stick with an FOS. Votes Zindaras.
Fritzler seems certain that Thesp is town. Fritz is NKed the following night, thus it follows that Thesp was one of his confirmed innocents. If anything, this reflects badly on him and MgM, as 50% of the scum now come up protown to cops, and so there is a greater chance of 1 of them being scum than a player who hasn’t been investigated.
CES continues to discuss a non-existant RB. I really don’t understand why he keeps pushing this…
Glork switches to Ether.
More banter between CES and Glork.
Glorks analysis reveals that he is suspicious of CDB and Zindaras now. He claims Thesp is likely protown. Yet amazingly, he consciously keeps his vote on someone he considers less likely scum. His suspicion of CES which again goes without a vote, is suspicious.
Thesp undermines CES.
39. Glork joins Thesp on CDB wagon.
Patrick does a LoS. Says that Glork looks very protown, but doesn’t comment much either way on CES or Thesp.
MgM defends CDB.
MBL joins CDB wagon for a reason which he doesn’t divulge. I haven’t spotted it, so I cant say whether it exists or not for sure…
Glork unvotes CDB. Its hard to see Glork-scum doing that I have to say…
CDB claims RoleBlocker. Now this is REALLY interesting. Look back at how regularly CES commented on the possibility of a RoleBlocker. Its quite possible that it was intention to plant the seeds of thought, so that CDB would be more likely to survive.
As a safeguard, CES maintains a neutral position towards CDB-saying that he could be scum, but needs more convincing.
Glork seems confident about a CDB lynch. Doesn’t even question CDB being scum. I find this quite suspicious, as the only way he could be THAT confident is if he was the last protown power role (which he wasn’t). he strongly suggests that he has a power role, and I am therefore surprised that he wasn’t killed by the scum already.
CES refuses to comment on CDB until after he is dead
Also comments that Glork is probably protown.
Glork reacts angrily when Zindy suggests that Glork and CDB are linked (remember this is before CDB was lynched). This could well imply that Glork is cross that all his hard work bussing has not saved him from public suspicion.
Patrick also denies connection between Glork and CDB.
CES attacks Zindy on Glorks behalf.
MgM tries hard to save CDB from a lynch. Also reverts back to lynching Thesp, which failed the day before.
CES tries to set up Thesp as the next days lynch. Decides not to vote CDB, with the intention of hammering him. This is also quite scummy, as it reeks of bussing.
44. MgM continues to pressure Thesp, claiming he was the lynch yesterday. Possibly trying to destabilise the CDB wagon.
Glork undermines the possibility of a Thesp-CDB scumpair. Possible scum-trio revealed.
Seems pretty confident CDB is scum “100% certain”.
CDB makes a possible distancing attempt with Thesp.
CES gets fidgety, and is keen to push a CDB lynch hard!
CES decides that Thesp must be GF. Votes for him.
Glork responds by voting for CES.
Patrick defends Ether.
MBL and Thesp both FOS CES, but neither vote.
MgM pressure votes Patrick.
CES withdraws his vote on Thesp, having faced lots of criticism.
48. Glork takes his vote off CES, and changes to Ether.
Thesp notices that CES has taken his vote off him, and votes him-probably with the intention of avoiding OMGUS.
CES’s appeal to emotion. MBL votes CES.
Ether analyses the remaining players. Claims Nightfall is scum, but doesn’t give ANY reasons. Also claims that CES and Glork (possibly the 2 scummiest players) are protownish looking. Rofl.
Glork pressure votes Zindaras.
Site goes down, and lots of posts are lost. Apparently Ether produces a case on Nightfall.
Nightfall suggests Glork and Fritz might have been masons. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Glork suggests that Zindy, Nightfall and CES could be scum. The former 2 are definitely not, and Glork is always the first one to promote his brilliant scumcatching ability. I find it hard to believe that he could be playing so badly here…
Ether again defends CES.
MgM makes a townish post regarding Zindaras.
Glork pushes a Nightfall lynch, and then votes.
53. CES joins the wagon-admitting that he needs a reread.
Thesp pushes further for a CES lynch, yet ironically, changes his vote to Zindy.
Strangely this reminds me of his actions when CDB was alive-suspecting him, but voting for others occasionally.
Glork asks Thesp to join the Nightfall wagon.
MBL makes a good analysis of the players.
Thesp changes from Zindaras to CES. Patrick quickly puts another vote on Nightfall, putting him at L-1. quickly unvotes when deadline is rescinded.
Page 56. Nightfall makes a stupid comment in response to general scumminess by Ether.
MBL suggests that Glork is lynch-happy, and Glork responds with a somewhat OMGUS vote.
CES continues to latch onto Glork. Glork seems to be tiring of this.
Zindaras is Modkilled. Patrick seems shocked, though it seems a bit false.
MBL votes CES. Glork reacts violently, even offering to die today instead of CES.
When MBL points out further inconsistencies with Glork, Glork once again begs to be lynched. Makes about 3 posts, with the specific intention of derailing the CES wagon.
MBL takes the bait, and votes for Glork.
CES retaliates by immediately voting for MBL.
Page 58. CES continues to blindly follow Glork. The possibility of them being scumbuddies seems a little TOO obvious, but the fact that nobody has even suggested it yet, makes me consider it an inherent possibility.
Thesp keeps his vote on CES. Glork FOS’s him. Lol
CES joins Nightfall wagon, with no explanation. Seems par for the course with his play so far. Asks Glork and Patrick to follow suit. Glork does so unquestioningly.
CTD replaces Ether, and I replace Nightfall.
Glork tells me to search for reasons for votes on me. Guess what-im still searching. Lol
I don’t like CES’s post 1484. I was made aware when replacing into this game that with such experienced, reputable players, it was going to be tough-going. This post by CES seems to imply exactly that: ‘Experienced Nightfall’ has been replaced by ‘Less-Experienced, Popular Lynch Candidate, Generally Fails at Persuasion Battle Mage’.
When questioned on this, he only replies with an inane grin. Goes on to beg MgM to vote for me.
CTD unvotes. This strikes me as a protown thing to do, as there would be no reason for scum to take their vote off a hot wagon.
Glork also begs Thesp to lynch me. Getting hilarious now. :p
CTD begins his analysis, much of which I don’t agree with, but nothing greatly scummy there.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, to conclude from this, I must say, I could see many of you as scum!
I could see a great number of potential scumpairs, including the obvious CES-Glork, Glork-Thesp. I don’t think CES and Thesp could be scumbuddies. Patrick strikes me as town, as does MgM. Id say MBL was the most protown looking player here. Somewhat neutral on Ether/CTD. Ill only really be suspicious if CTD continues along the same path as his predecessor, which could indicate scum.
I find Thesp fairly scummy, but really it’s a choice between Glork and CES for todays lynch. I could easily see both as scum, but although I can see Glork-scum with more combinations, id rather stick with a CES lynch, as based on his play, I am more confident of him being scum individually.
hence my vote stands.
BM

[Battle Mage]

Unvote: CES, Vote: Battle Mage.

I can't believe I missed the big red letters re: Post 595. Flamingly scummy.

im guessing this would be a reaction to my less than positive read of you?
could you please comment on my analysis, seeing as not only did it take along time to write, but it also points out alot of scummy behaviour that wasnt noticed at the time.

BM

[Battle Mage]

to some extent, i can see it might appear that way. however, that is not the mindset with which i carried out the investigations, rather it was confusion as to the suspicious behaviour of Glork and CES, since my arrival. having said that, seeing as im quite likely to die today, im trying to ensure that the town has a good case to work from, and lynch the correct person today. this isnt the time for OMGUS. oh and btw, your theory stutters alot, when you consider that Thesp (who had previously been defending Nightfall, is also one of my top suspects-far ahead of CTD.
The only reason i commented that it would be suspicioud for CTD to vote for me, is because i would find it rather a coincidence for him to replicate the views of his predecessor. yes, its possible, but id be inclined to think that there was a hidden agenda, that had to be adhered to (BM getting lynched). if you want my views on players, the analysis sums most of it up. Generally the players that get alot of mention are the ones with the scummiest behaviour, whilst the players who are rarely mentioned, dont do anything especially incriminating.
Im unsure about Thesps attacks on CDB. for one thing, he was very confident, very early on, about CDB being scum. imo, there wasnt overwhelming evidence to support this at the time, and so perhaps he was distancing. this is supported by CDB's persistant attacking of Thesp, when it becomes inevitable that he will be lynched. on the other hand, i think there is a fair chance that he genuinely caught CDB scum. it makes little sense for him to push so hard, so early. id say its slightly scummy, but overall not enough to warrant an FOS, let alone a vote.

ah that other comment of mine, was something i thought of when i was reading. my analysis is pretty much a collection of my thoughts when reading through. at the time, i remember rereading it, and realising it didnt quite make mathematical sense, but i guess i forgot to delete it. just ignore it anyway, as its wrong. lol

now, Patrick, a question for you: didnt you find the fact that CDB claimed

Roleblocker

scummy?- in light of the fact that, prior to the claim, CES had mentioned on several occassions that there could be a roleblocker, while there was actually no evidence to back this up-indeed it was a rather unlikely possibility

Also, Glork is lurking. WHY?

<<quote [Post 1519] deleted>>

[Battle Mage]

now, Patrick, a question for you: didnt you find the fact that CDB claimed Roleblocker scummy?

Yes, see my comments around that time. His behaviour after the claim was also scummy.

thats not what i meant lol.
i mean, did you find it scummy that CDB claimed RB, when prior to the claim, CES had been ranting persistently about helping an RB?

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

was there any mention of an RB before post 747?
i dont think so.
besides, seeing as that was Day 2, with all scum still alive, i think it makes sense that CES would want to open up the towns mind to having an RB, in case one of them had to claim. either that, or CES just got over-excited and let it slip.

However, rather than persuade you of who is scum, lets try a difference tack.
can anyone please explain why there is a wagon on me?
ive yet to see a good reason thus far....
BM

[Battle Mage]

vote count

err...
im pretty sure more votes than that have been cast.

[Battle Mage]

And the fact he was lurker extreme. If you promise to hammer someone and fail to do so, you deprave the town from lynch information. I find it scummy, you apparently don't. You get information from a bandwagon that results in no lynch and you get info from the night death, but these don't quite measure up.

God this annoys me no end. You're looking at it generally and not even applying the fact that Thesp is very likely protown, which massively changes things and means not hammering him was actually a good thing. Please step up about 50 gears if you are protown and stop saying stuff like this.

i disagree that Thesp is 'likely protown'. Of the 2 'confirmed' innocents, id say he is significantly the scummiest. i think it is possible that whilst he is a bad play for today, if we dont find the GF soon, he might be a good play.
BM

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

Battle Mage, for your information, the first mention of a roleblocker is post 2 under Clarifications. There's also a link in the first post.

oh, so with 7 choices there, and only 3 actually existing, you really think that an RB was likely enough to base your entire gameplay around?

[Battle Mage]

so MgM, are you saying that you would willingly join a Glork wagon?

[Battle Mage]

so MgM, are you saying that you would willingly join a Glork wagon?

No, but I might be willing to join the BM wagon if more incriminating evidence against him surfaces.

thats a change of tune, considering in your previous post, you said that i was one of the least scummy people. strange...

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

could you addres your particular concern with post 595. as far as i can see, it reflects upon Nightfall as protownish, as Nightfall-scum would obviously be making an effort to distance himself from CDB, whereas in reality, he actually agreed with CDB openly. thats either incredibly stupid scum, or rather naive townie.
I cant see how that makes anything near a case however.
BM

[Battle Mage]

hmm, let me put it another way. perhaps you are right, that Nightfall felt no pressure to distance from CDB. However, would he really buddy up to him that much? the answer is obviously no, unless you think that Nightfall is the worst anti-town player in the world, who has no idea of how to play the game.

I think your analysis is the wrong way around. if Nightfall wanted to protect CDB, he'd be as likely (if not more so) to protect him within his LoS (as that is what most players concentrate on).

95% sure? on what? rofl. the fact that Nightfall

may or may not

have been supporting CDB, which was

possibly

a genuine attempt to protect a scumbuddy.
Im going to laugh so hard if you come up town.

In response to your criticisms of my analysis, ill reiterate that it was literally, my thoughts as i read through the thread. inevitably some of it is wrong, and yet its good as it allows the town to track my thoughts as i read through. it also makes it easy to see why CES is the play for today.
Until someone points out what Nightfall has actually done, its hard for me to respond to suspicions, as it seems that most of the posts about him were lost in the crash.

its posts like these that make me so sure that you and CES are scumbuddies. not only have you appeared to be joined at the hip for this game, but you have also neglected to try and lynch him, even though

he has spent the majority of the duration of the game at the top of your suspects list.

HoS: Glork

BM

<<quote [1549] deleted>>

[Battle Mage]

I just noticed this.

Lots of communication between Glork and CES. Im not sure what that means, as I doubt those 2 as scum would be so openly like scumbuddies. Could suggest that Glork is protown.

He's already decided I'm scum 6 lines into his analysis. This is typical scum going after a target (as opposed to town looking for scum). I even make sense as a target(I'm probably the easiest lynch here(apart from BM), ceteris paribus.

dont be ridiculous. do you see anyone here other than me who wants to lynch you? i sure as hell dont. stop playing for the sympathy vote.
as for me asserting you could be scum, its called testing a hypothesis. ive got nothing to gain by getting you lynched as town. my analysis was to whether you were scum, or whether there was a better lynch.

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

What is there to claim?
there is only townies and scum left as far as im aware.
and yep, you guessed it. im a genuine townie.

[Battle Mage]

it should also be noted my suspicions have changed slightly now. its sort of good that im dying, as there are so many scummy looking people, tomorrow is gonna be damn hard for the town.
still, at least ive made some contribution to the game.
BM

[Battle Mage]

The CDB-wagon started with Thesp-Glork-MBL. And yet Thesp and Glork are two of BM's top three suspects:

I could see a great number of potential scumpairs, including the obvious CES-Glork, Glork-Thesp. I don’t think CES and Thesp could be scumbuddies.

Somehow, I very much doubt that the first two people to put CDB on the hotseat were both of his scumpartners, lol. When scum gets lynched, town uses the lynch info as one of the primary pieces of evidence for determining alignments. It doesn't appear that BM factored that in. Nightfall did and chose to find Glork suspect and Thesp innocent.

In fact, in the same post where BM slipped and said Mgm was proven innocent by an investigation, he lists Thesp as a top suspect. I don't see how any of this reflects a read of the thread with genuine curiosity. It's more likely that he knows the alignments and is tailoring his analysis to them.

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?
dont be silly. this is a game with experienced players. the skill at which the scum is playing is evident in the fact that 2 of them are still alive, with all power roles dead. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if Glork/Thesp bussed their buddy.
forgive me if im wrong here, but being on the wagon when scum is lynched, DOES NOT CONFIRM YOU PROTOWN. If thats your mentality, you might as well go home now. :p

oh and btw, can people stop referring to bits of my analysis which are wrong as 'slips'. ive already explained (and its evident to anyone reading it) that those were my thoughts at the time. My first thought was, "ah, MgM must have come up protown then". the gf bit became obvious later, and whilst it is true that MgM isnt 'confirmed' town, as i had said, there is little way in which that mistake could be construed as scummy.

ive probably said before, that its hard to make good judgements, when i could see the vast majority of you as opportunistic scum. I really doubt that the town will win this game. My personal suspicions: Thesp is a probable Godfather, with CES/Glork as the goon. if Thesp is scum, Glork is the most likely to be his buddy. if Thesp isnt scum, CES is a safer bet for the next day.

BM

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?
dont be silly. this is a game with experienced players. the skill at which the scum is playing is evident in the fact that 2 of them are still alive, with all power roles dead. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if Glork/Thesp bussed their buddy.
forgive me if im wrong here, but being on the wagon when scum is lynched, DOES NOT CONFIRM YOU PROTOWN. If thats your mentality, you might as well go home now. :p

This is probably what's called a strawman, though that's maybe only for when you subtly change what someone said. Nobody is saying that being on a scum lynch confirms a player as protown. What people are saying is that starting a wagon on confirmed scum tends to be be a town tell. The tone and manner in which Glork/Thesp went about it did not feel like busing.

IN YOUR OPINION.
I agree that in some cases, starting a wagon on scum is a town tell. On the other hand, the conviction with which Thesp went after CDB is suspicious in itself. Bussing is pretty common, and in a game with experienced players such as this, you have to realise that scum will bus to boost their town protection.

oh and btw, can people stop referring to bits of my analysis which are wrong as 'slips'. ive already explained (and its evident to anyone reading it) that those were my thoughts at the time. My first thought was, "ah, MgM must have come up protown then". the gf bit became obvious later, and whilst it is true that MgM isnt 'confirmed' town, as i had said, there is little way in which that mistake could be construed as scummy.

I think the point being made was the vast difference between your assessments of MgM and your assessment of Thesp, the two investigated players.

the fact is that MgM has not acted nearly as scummy throughout the game as Thesp. If 1 of those 2 is the Godfather, id choose Thesp every time, due to his play throughout the game.

BM

[Battle Mage]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

What I'm actually asking is HOW DO PEOPLE EXAMINE A WAGON? Town looks at it to try and see whose suspicions were genuine and who manufactured something to tag along. Common sense tells town that the first two people on a successful scumwagon probably aren't both scum. I'll be very surprised if Thesp and Glork both turn out to be scum considering how that lynch played out, and therefore BM seeing them as a scumpair is indicative of a different kind of read of the lynch.

Scum reads a lynch for anything they can use to sow doubt. That appears to be what's happening here.

what you say is true of typical games, but im sure you aware that there are exceptions to such rules. often, scum can go unnoticed for much of the game, and thus the fact that Thesp spotted CDB so early on is suspicious in itself. It seems quite possible that Glork noticed this bussing attempt, and joined in early, so that the rest of the town would share the same view as you: They cannot be scum.
Of course, if Thesp isnt scum, its still concievable that Glork is. Glorks could have seen a townie latching onto his scumbuddy, and when it looked like some sort of reaction would have to be made, he decided to cut his losses and bus.

i dont understand your last comment. is that a confession?

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

Battle Mage:

Also, mind explaining why MBL looks like the "most protown looking player here"?

if i remember correctly, his analyses of the gameplay coincided alot with mine. he didnt do anything especially scummy either.
BM

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

i hate being left at L-1.

Vote: BM

still, at least in my time here i made some contribution to the game. Hopefully when you realise that i am not scum, you might wake up and pay attention to what im saying.

Good luck town. Please kill CES/Glork/Thesp tomorrow.


BM

[Battle Mage]

wow good work guys! A great result!
I'm only disappointed that i only got to play for 1 day. I don't think i played badly-i feel i provided some good analysis, and i was correct with my number 1 suspicion (CES). On the other hand, MBL was way off my scumdar, so well done to him.

BM

[Battle Mage]

yeh i think Patrick has a point about the setup. we were ok here because the Mafia were all competent players (although actually, so was virtually everyone) and they managed to survive really well. However if you ran this setup again, you might want to give the town less power roles, or the scum an additional member.

BM