AndrewS's explanation is pure BS. I was more willing to believe his first suggestion about the nolynch..... and then he changed it to "I just wanted to see some reactions". Dude, I'm so totally serial.
-3
Way to Wifom out the wazoo.Andrew wrote:Explain why my little plan wouldn't work, and/or is a scummy idea. I've played in a good number of games on this site, and I've never seen the mafia successfully go no lynch in any of the games that I've been in. For that matter, I've never actually seen the mafia attempt to go no lynch(except in newbie games). Ergo, why would I actually attempt it, other than the idea that I have presented? As for what information I gathered, I was hoping to see who was lynch-hungry. As it is, several were. The only of those that I feel were particularly scummy was Adele - it's quite common for a mafia to vote, and then to state a rule, nothing else. As for her reasoning that I should have thought of something that wouldn't hurt the town if it was taken up, with this group of players, it's rather obvious that the town would NOT take me up on it. Therefore, I think that the town's best move at this point is:
I don't like this either. It looks like a scumbuddy trying to defend kind of noncomittaly.Adele wrote:The wifom argument is fallacious, but I don't think use of it is necessarily scummy; I think that it's a fallacy that a lot pf players are easily prone to, and not indicative of scummyness. All it does is invalidate the argument. So, I don't think AndrewS is scum because he used it, but I do distrust him quite a lot (enough for a vote) for what he did do and I don't consider his defence good enough to merit an unvote.
You don't think that this town would be good enough to see some crap logic and jump on it?Patrick wrote:The way the wagon built up, I'd be more inclined towards thinking Andrew is town. I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.
He knows that now. He didn't know that when he proposed it. How does this make him more town? Same with the speed of the wagon. How does that make him more town?Patrick wrote:I don't really understand what you're saying here. I said that obviously Andrew wouldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch because it's a bad idea.
First, a little bit of a fallacy here. "You agree it's wifom, you you don't think it's lynch-worth". No middle ground.MGM wrote:I don't get you, Zindaras.
You agree it's WIFOM, yet you don't think it's lynch-worthy.
I've seen a lot of scum, who attempted something just because scum wouldn't do that so they could use that argument. (I even did it myself over in DragonPhoenix Mafia on the GL)
If you're not going to vote someone for WIFOM, then do you have a better idea? The only reason I'm not voting yet is because I don't like fast lynches. But I'm all ready to pile up.
Unvote:Cogito Ergo Sum
I still don't get it. I'm pretty sure it was apparent that Glork wasn't being serious. In later posts you still don't seem to accept it. I thought you did, after this post though.MGM in response to Glork wanting to know who thought he was serious about a no lynch wrote:I do. Because you actually voted no lynch when we were discussing how bad a no lynch would be for the town following Andrew's bandwagon. If you're pro-town, surely you have a better place to put your vote than on a no lynch you know won't happen. It is a waste of voting power.
apparently not, as in your next post thoughMGM wrote:Oops, I guess I was the one not paying attention. I thought his post 117 was in response to my post 116. I didn't notice he responded to an SV quote.AndrewS wrote:MGM, read the game - he was parodying me....
From some of his posts I see him trying to make Glork look scummy because he voted for a no lynch.MGM wrote:Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself, but just in case someone wants to hear it.
AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.
Granted, you might get a few scum on your bandwagon, but not because they're opportunists, it will be because you called the wagon on yourself and it's logical to punish scummy actions or take action against anti-town play. Scum want to mix in, so if the town wagons you, they'll join (regardless of whether you're their buddy or a townie). It's not rocket science.
You didn't hop on until Glork's dice. That means Glork's dice was a deciding factor in your jumping on, or did your internal hop clock go off?CES wrote:Glrok's early vote might've been random, but that doesn't make the bandwagon random. Fritzler called it long before. FoS: IH for mischaracterising the wagon.
I found this faulty, because there has been cases where scum suggest no lynch and such.SV wrote:unvote, vote CES
I've never ever seen scum suggest no lynch, especially a non-newbie scum. Also, it's pretty obvious that no one here will support it, since this is an invitational. Like Patrick, I think the people using this as a reason to attack are scum.
I don't like the logic of saying that the AndrewS wagon was scummy. I maintain that it was there for a valid reason. Then, she says she see's an "Emo scumtell" but no vote at all, even though she unvotes.SV wrote:*nods*MGM wrote:Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself, but just in case someone wants to hear it.
AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.
Then again,
= Emo scum-tell.AndrewS wrote:When I'm lynched and turn up town, you all might want to do some serious reconsideration of a few people.
Apologies, I've been sick.
unvote
Sigh.
Still no vote, seems noncomittal.SV wrote:I need to admit that with so many people around, I'm getting a little confused.
I'm not taking specific post notes now at page 9, but the person who's bothering me most right now is IH, with that clear reach. I've read through again, and I'm still swinging here and there over Andrews VS Mgm issue.
Unprompted. Uses the same logic as newbies do (We have a greater chance of hitting town today than scum since it'll be random) I still think that he was serious when he said this by the wording of this.Andrews wrote:Alright...Looking at it like this - it's been several days now and we're not out of the random vote stage. I know that with this strong of a group of players, nobody is going to make an idiodic mistake and make a scum tell this early. Ergo, our lynch will practically be random. This gives us a 1 in 5 chance of killing mafia. 4 in 5 of lynching town. Not the greatest odds. Perhaps we should Unvote, vote: No Lynch for now, and look at the game fresh in the morning, unless anyone has any more constructive ideas.
Patrick answered with this. Not quite sure what he meant by it...Patrick wrote:A mysterious suggestion. I'm sure the game will get under way just as every other game does.
Yeah. You know. The second page.AndrewS wrote:Very well. Unvote
I suppose that I just thought that since we'd been playing a while and still were randomly voting that we weren't getting anywhere. If the town thinks that we can lynch mafia today, though, I'm all for it.
Not paying attention count-5Patrick wrote:This does not mean that he did. It was a serious suggestion, or I believed so by the wording, as previously stated.MBL wrote: :Goodposting obv:
AndrewS is leet right? I don't think his suggestion makes it more likely he's scum. I doubt he would seriously expect to convince us all to go no lynch, especially when we don't even have an even number.
I repeat. It was unprompted, and had only been two days in onto the second page.AndrewS wrote:I'm not a newbie. I was just getting frustrated with the fact that it had been 2 full days and we were no closer to finding anything out than normal. Yes, I understand that random votes are a normal part of the game, but I also understand that it occurs until someone slips up and says something stupid. In an invitational, I assumed that nobody would be so stupid to do such. Apparently I was wrong.
= )Thesp wrote:Interesting. The last time I made that suggestion about someone who had experience and was suggesting No Lynch, I was wrong. My vote's been justified.Thesp wrote:I don't think his suggestion makes it more likely he's scum.
Wasn't Ether pushing for my lynch because I also went after AndrewS?Ether wrote:vote: AndrewS I don't really care about a no-lynch vote; it's too blatant for me to care particularly. That it seems you weren't expecting FoSes for it concerns me a bit more. Er, I'm confused about that post I just quoted.
(On a fluffy note, let's see what I can spark.
Damn I'm face-to-face!)
I hate this reason. As I've stated before (and will again) I always suspect anyone who does something "just to get reactions". This is a ticket out of any thing they've done, and I personally believe it is scummy.AndrewS wrote:Alright, alright...Guess I'll explain. I voted no lynch and said that in order to get peoples' reactions. Many times, by doing or saying something unexpected, you can learn a lot from simple reactions...And while I haven't gotten anything concrete from it, I do believe that I have sort of a feel for who to watch for. Not enough for a vote, mind you, just sort of a feeling for it.
The benefits for Andrew.Patrick wrote:I'm still just pretty much neutral on Andrew. I don't see particularly what benefit he could have hoped to gain from doing this as a 'scummy gambit'. It's not like we would be persuaded to no lynch. In a town full of new players maybe, but not here.
1.Town takes him up on it. no lynch.
2.Town doesn't take him up on it. Some find him scummy, others call them scummy, he's credited for "starting discussion"
Even worse is if he is scum, he'd have had a chance to converse with his buddies. If they came to what at least SOME of the town would do (vote Andrew), is it not implausible that they could have already come up with a way to throw suspicion on someone else?
Like MGM's first post.MGM wrote:Vote: CES for being way too talkative.
scum.
The best he had at this point was a weak metagaming point.mgm wrote:No, from what I've seen from CES, he's usually relatively silent and only becomes really active when he's scum. Granted, part of that is based on a face-to-face game in real life, but it's the best I've got.
For what it's worth: I didn't notice the game started.
scumscum
Which CES counters effectively.
CES wrote:I play differently in real life games. I didn't rack up my post count by only being active when I'm scum.I'm going to break down this post, little by little.AndrewS wrote:Explain why my little plan wouldn't work, and/or is a scummy idea. I've played in a good number of games on this site, and I've never seen the mafia successfully go no lynch in any of the games that I've been in. For that matter, I've never actually seen the mafia attempt to go no lynch(except in newbie games). Ergo, why would I actually attempt it, other than the idea that I have presented? As for what information I gathered, I was hoping to see who was lynch-hungry. As it is, several were. The only of those that I feel were particularly scummy was Adele - it's quite common for a mafia to vote, and then to state a rule, nothing else. As for her reasoning that I should have thought of something that wouldn't hurt the town if it was taken up, with this group of players, it's rather obvious that the town would NOT take me up on it. Therefore, I think that the town's best move at this point is:
Unvote, Vote: Adele
AndrewS Has effectively "Cleared" himself., as he tries to do here. Since no scum have ever done it, and he did it, he must not be scum!AndrewS wrote:Explain why my little plan wouldn't work, and/or is a scummy idea. I've played in a good number of games on this site, and I've never seen the mafia successfully go no lynch in any of the games that I've been in. For that matter, I've never actually seen the mafia attempt to go no lynch(except in newbie games). Ergo, why would I actually attempt it, other than the idea that I have presented?
Can you see the logical fallacy here?
Even though voting for a nolynch is usually considered scummy, he does it to see who's lynch happy. Therefore, anyone who voted him for what most would consider a scummy move is scum because they're lynch happy.AndrewS part 2 wrote:As for what information I gathered, I was hoping to see who was lynch-hungry. As it is, several were. The only of those that I feel were particularly scummy was Adele - it's quite common for a mafia to vote, and then to state a rule, nothing else. As for her reasoning that I should have thought of something that wouldn't hurt the town if it was taken up, with this group of players, it's rather obvious that the town would NOT take me up on it. Therefore, I think that the town's best move at this point is:
Unvote, Vote: Adele
= |
I believe CES is the most town at this point, especially with his arguments.
The exchange between him and Andrew in posts 93-96 are filled with CES goodness.
Some fun Wifomy logic! "If I were to do this as a godfather, that would be silly, so I must not be one! But Adele is still scum"AndrewS wrote:FOS: CES You don't care about my intention? That seems rather interesting to me. If I were to use this as a godfather, that would be an incredibly silly move. As for the reactions that I've gotten, it has sparked discussion and led me to suspect Adele. I was hoping for more, but I can only work on what I am given after making the move.
She thought it was originally a null tell, but earlier she voted him for it? Please correct me if I'm wrong butEther wrote:unvote; vote: IH. Watching Adele and Mgm; I'm not really focused on IH in particular.
I don't know if I'd believe Andrew if I came in to see his reaction before anyone else posted. I do know that I really dislike the responses to him. I thought the original vote was a null tell. Where's the WIFOM? Just what are you people arguing?
Voidie, you've acknowledged this without really touching it: posts 53 and 57. Thoughts?
FoS:Ether
Patrick I never understood why you thought Andrew was more town because of the way the wagon built up.Patrick wrote:The way the wagon built up, I'd be more inclined towards thinking Andrew is town. I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.
Posts 109-111 suddenly nails CES with three votes after he says "But he mentioned no lynch, and it'll be fun!"
I especially don't like SV's post 111.
Did you not understand the Wifom Logical fallacy that was pointed out? Why did you think they were suspect for voting based on a nolynch/WIFOM fallacy tell?Patrick wrote:I think the ppl who just shouted Wifom are suspect. Like Ether, there are several ppl I could vote.
:GoodPosting:Thesp wrote:In my experience, scum tend to suggest "no lynch" more than town do, perhaps because it eliminates an early voting record (sometimes it's hard to go after a non-scum in a game where you're scum), or for who knows what reason. Regardless of justification, it tends to be somethings scum do more frequently (yes, town does it too, but not as often, I believe).
I really don't like all of these things from Andrew Jumping out at me. His Nolynch suggestion, his bad defense full of logical fallacy, the appeals to emotion...... = (AndrewS wrote:Think what you will....It's your decision. As for Thesp's question, no, I couldn't tell as easily who was willing to jump quickly. Random voting patterns are impossible to discern information from. This was simply my attempt to bring out information on day 1 rather than lynching randomly. If I'm lynched for it, then so be it.
Not paying attention count-1MGM wrote:Hmm, I could've sworn I unvoted you. I think I'm messing up my games.
Unvote: CES
Vote: Glork
There's only one situation in which no lynch on day 1 is a viable choice. Now isn't one of them and Glork is experienced enough to know it.
I seriously think there's some kind of fallacy in here. It's just like.... you don't see any case on Andrew, because of the way his wagon built up and he couldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch, so it's just as good as if he didn't....Patrick wrote:I don't really understand what you're saying here. I said that obviously Andrew wouldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch because it's a bad idea.
CES says he only had 400 something posts. Going with a long Hiatus from who knows how long, and I don't know, but I'm pretty sure I've never played with him before the last month or so...Patrick wrote:Andrew knows the ppl he is playing with, and he is semi experienced. I doubt he thought he could push a no lynch agenda through. As for the wagon, I made it clear that I thought there was oppotunistic scum on it. It felt more like going for an easy lynch than bussing a scumbuddy.
Also, if you'll notice, Patrick apparently doesn't think that any town were on the Andrew wagon. His two options are Opportunistic scum and Bussing. What about Town hopping on?
Thesp's post 151 is good.
So you say. This cannot be proven to us though.AndrewS wrote:Thesp - considering that I know that I am town beyond the shadow of a doubt, is that not a logical suggestion for me to make? While it may not be that convincing if I am not a given, I am simply trying to explain my thought processes.
Post 160 is also good by Thesp.
Not paying attention count-2.MGM wrote:Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself, but just in case someone wants to hear it.
AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.
Granted, you might get a few scum on your bandwagon, but not because they're opportunists, it will be because you called the wagon on yourself and it's logical to punish scummy actions or take action against anti-town play. Scum want to mix in, so if the town wagons you, they'll join (regardless of whether you're their buddy or a townie). It's not rocket science.I don't see a post per day or so. = |Nightfall wrote:I am able to post once or twice per game per real life day.
So far this game has been running for 3 days (not including today).
I have only not posted in the last two days because I have been trying to take in everything that has been said.
I will FOS: AndrewS though.
I would say more, I had actually planned to, but then I read Thesp's latest comment and just like MGM thought "Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself". So yeah, as odd as it sounds, and as hard as it feals to say.... I currently agree with Thesp.....
If you'll excuse me, I've now got to go and wash my mouth out with some soap...
More appeals to emotion.Andrew wrote:If anyone has any questions that I can answer, I would be more than willing to. Otherwise, I have posted my story, everything that I know to post. When I'm lynched and turn up town, you all might want to do some serious reconsideration of a few people.I'm going to sum up Andrew's reasoning.Andrew wrote:Certainly. CES, Adele and Thesp.
CES for being CES-y and joking around for saying "lets lynch"
Adele for his fallable argument of anyone voting him for doing a scummy thing is probably scum because they're lynch happy.
Thesp for all that omgus-ee goodness.So... you don't think that Andrew was scummy because town wouldn't go for a nolynch?Ether wrote:The initial attack on AndrewS was that a no-lynch would hurt the town. It's been pointed out that a no-lynch wouldn't actually happen. So, yeah. The reason that scum would be more likely than town to vote no-lynch seems gone. Now what? (I don't mind Thesp's statistics argument, incidentally, and it even rings a bell, but I don't feel it's good enough for a lynch.)
I know we know what we're doing.... but you cannot convince me that it was not serious. Since it's an invitational, it makes me even more convinced. There's no newbies to suggest it. How would experienced players take it coming fromEther wrote:Um, IH? Despite it containing Ether, this is an invitational. We know what we're doing (or in my case, we know who to bribe and/or blackmail and/or sleep with). Off the top of my head, I don't remember even newbie games on 'Scum where an unoptimal no-lynch agenda actually got through. It in no way made Andrew more town; just, I didn't find it scummy. (Now, his own behavior after the vote...well, if his wagon didn't go ridiculous, I'd probably still be on it.)
another experienced player? Andrew didn't know that....."Can you explain how a vote for a nolynch equates to an actual nolynch? Seems Harmless"Ether wrote:Many of the people who placed votes on him did so for bullshit reasons. IH, can you explain how a vote for no-lynch equates to an actual no-lynch? Seems pretty harmless to me. Where specifically was the WIFOM you were talking about?
"Can you expain how a vote for a confirmed innocent lynch eqautes to an actual confirmed innocent lynch? Seems harmless"
That's exactly how I see your argument.
not paying attention count-3MGM wrote:I do. Because you actually voted no lynch when we were discussing how bad a no lynch would be for the town following Andrew's bandwagon. If you're pro-town, surely you have a better place to put your vote than on a no lynch you know won't happen. It is a waste of voting power.Glork wrote:Alright, let's take an informal poll?MGM wrote:AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.
Who here thinks I was *actually* serious about my No-Lynch suggestion?
Though he was on both of them I believe.....MGM wrote:I actually see the attack of both Andrew's and Glork's bandwagoners as more opportunistic than the actual bandwagoning. We have to start somewhere and voting someone suggesting a no lynch on day 1 is pretty standard.
I was sucking up to Thesp... for agreeing with his reasoning? Bullshit. There's not much curiosity to be had when I see something scummy my friend. Sorry that I'm "opportunistic scum" for voting for/going after someone who is scummy to me.Patrick wrote:I'm not really feeling the CES wagon.
Unvote, Vote: IH
He just seems to be cruising along too easily on this AndrewS thing, and I don't like his reasons. I don't see much curiosity from him. Also, the sucking up to Thesp... I've seen that before.
MGM wrote:
I actually see the attack of both Andrew's and Glork's bandwagoners as more opportunistic than the actual bandwagoning. We have to start somewhere and voting someone suggesting a no lynch on day 1 is pretty standard.
This caught my interest. Are you saying that Andrew bandwagoners have made themselves into easy targets for oppotunistic scum? Are you going to look at IH's play with a straight face and tell me that he isn't oppotunistic scum? >_>
What did you think of my play by the way? You kind of ignored Patrick's question.MGM wrote:I'm not going to say anything about IH's play before checking his posts.
As for the quote. I don't say the bandwagoners made themeselves into eassy targets. That would imply the wrong causal relationship. I'm saying they're not opportunistic for bandwagoning, but that the people attacking them for their bandwagoning are the opportunistic scum.
Truth. Truth.Thesp wrote:I think you are missing the whole point of the argument, as this is entirely mis-stated. The question is not, "Could this affect the lynch for the day?", it's "Why is he voting No Lynch?" His motivations are not necessarily equivalent with the expected outcome.TRUTH
mmmm. You assume we know that you're not lying scum worming their way out.AndrewS wrote:Thesp: You have a problem in your logic: You assume that my intentions follow my vote, and that I intended for the town to go no lynch. I did not. I did want to see reactions. As such, we have more information now than we would have normally for a day 1 lynch. It won't be entirely random. That was my goal, really. But, no, I never truly intended the town to go no lynch.
Not paying attention count-4MGM wrote:Glork doing the same when he knew it was a stupid move is scummier.Err, actually there is, and the argument's been out on the table. Which means we still do notAndrewS wrote:Thesp, I could say the same about you. If I was scum, and I knew that I wouldn't be able to convince town to go no lynch, what would I profit from suggesting it? If you accept the fact that I did not expect the town to go no lynch, you must logically assume that I had another reason for voting it. What do you suppose that reason was? Saying it is because I am mafia makes no sense, because if I do not expect the town to go no lynch, and it does not, it merely makes me a target. Saying it was to attract attention to myself then clear myself is absolutely ludicrous. There is no defensible way that you can say that you thought that I didn't believe the town would go no lynch yet am still mafia.knowof your true intention until you are confirmed innocent, which won't happen until we're down to one scum and a cop claims, or you're dead.This was stupid on my part. I most definitely Misread Thesp's posts at the time.IH wrote:igmeoy:Thesp... Even though you're strongly supporting an Andrew lynch, I don't like how you're kind of... turning it into something else.
I still maintain that with this being invitational only, Andrew didn't know how a nolynch suggestion would go. I mostly believe this because of the scummy defense which... doesn't look to good for him.err..... how couldn't you?Patrick wrote:Mod whenever you get back can you prod MBL for us please?
I agree with what Thesp said about Nightfalls last post. I could see a link between the two of them because Nightfall attacks him on several points then only FoSes him, then votes Ether. Misrepresents her too. Looking at Ether's last post I didn't get the vibe of "AndrewS can do no wrong".Eh, I'm still not convinced on this.Glork wrote:Not really, IH. Scum will staunchly defend townies at time to make themselves look good. In fact, if Ether turns up scum, at this point, I'd be more inclined to believe that AndrewS is pro-town.
I'm kind of neutral on MBL's post 206.
[quote="MGM"[I am reading the game, but that doesn't mean I'm not fallible. Just like anyone else I'm prone to forgetting and overlooking stuff. If you can't agree to that, I could say you're not reading the thread too. I had to repeat a question in post 191 because you failed the answer it earlier. Either you didn't read it, or you purposely choose not to answer a question directed at you. Neither is a particular townish reaction.
We disagree about each other's actions. That doesn't mean that the posts of either of us is less intelligent than the other. We're in an invitational, so we can assume we're both good enough players. What you said is a logical fallacy according to the MafiaWiki http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... the_Person
....So... one person's reason invalidates the whole argument?Ether wrote:That's what Mgm at least attacked as WIFOM, and he was the first. I in no way believe that an attempt to get people arguing prevents the instigator from being scum--but a serious push for a no-lynch is as unlikely as Andrew said it was, and this is what was attacked.MGM wrote:You're sidestepping the question. Why would I seriously claim it, other than what I stated?
Speaking of which, Mgm's posts give off a vibe of overwhelming stupid and I don't actually find them scummy. Hey, Thesp--what was your alternate theory?
AndrewS wrote:SV: Placing the last vote would be bad for me regardless: If the lynched was scum, it would look like bussing. If the lynched was town, it would be me trying to get rid of townies. I just want to make sure that we do lynch someone before the deadline.
LAWLThesp wrote:Which is awesome when several people do that. In fact, it makes it hard for someone to get to the point of hammertization when people hold back their votes. I'm adding this to the "list of crap spewed forth from the mouth of AndrewS this game" tally.
When I look at this post all I can think is.... "protecting scum buddy by randomising with townies"Adele wrote:Perhaps even literally.
My ideal vigging scenario (I know you're all on tenterhooks ) would be if SV took town input, picked out about 3 solid targets (and told us who, possibly) and random.org'd between them. Randomisation is a valid methodology in Game Theory precisely because of WIFOM issues (although the textbooks don't call it that), and I'm always uncomfortable playing stone-paper-scissors if I don't even know who the opponent is.
I'll try to pick a better target for my vote today - if not, I'll try to present a valid reason for failing. I may well be unable to post over the weekend, so please excuse that, but I'll certainly be back Monday. I'm not lurking.
QFTCES wrote:Um, Adele, I don't see how picking 3 targets rather than 1 would in any way be a boon to the town. It's not like she's a cop, her target is hardly influence the scum's nightkill. Picking 3 targets would only make the pool of possible investigations smaller.
Not with a deadline. If you want to, you can do a meta on me, as this is one thing I almost ALWAYS do at a deadline announcement is to vote for the highest wagon.Patrick wrote:I still find this worrying. On a dice roll you go along and ask someone to claim. It seems strange that you'd be 'putting together' a case only after she's virtually confirmed. I would have thought you need a case before you vote.
Unprompted. Uses the same logic as newbies do (We have a greater chance of hitting town today than scum since it'll be random) I still think that he was serious when he said this by the wording of this.Andrews wrote:Alright...Looking at it like this - it's been several days now and we're not out of the random vote stage. I know that with this strong of a group of players, nobody is going to make an idiodic mistake and make a scum tell this early. Ergo, our lynch will practically be random. This gives us a 1 in 5 chance of killing mafia. 4 in 5 of lynching town. Not the greatest odds. Perhaps we should Unvote, vote: No Lynch for now, and look at the game fresh in the morning, unless anyone has any more constructive ideas.
Patrick answered with this. Not quite sure what he meant by it...Patrick wrote:A mysterious suggestion. I'm sure the game will get under way just as every other game does.
Yeah. You know. The second page.AndrewS wrote:Very well. Unvote
I suppose that I just thought that since we'd been playing a while and still were randomly voting that we weren't getting anywhere. If the town thinks that we can lynch mafia today, though, I'm all for it.
This does not mean that he did. It was a serious suggestion, or I believed so by the wording, as previously stated.Patrick wrote:
:Goodposting obv:
AndrewS is leet right? I don't think his suggestion makes it more likely he's scum. I doubt he would seriously expect to convince us all to go no lynch, especially when we don't even have an even number.
I repeat. It was unprompted, and had only been two days in onto the second page.AndrewS wrote:I'm not a newbie. I was just getting frustrated with the fact that it had been 2 full days and we were no closer to finding anything out than normal. Yes, I understand that random votes are a normal part of the game, but I also understand that it occurs until someone slips up and says something stupid. In an invitational, I assumed that nobody would be so stupid to do such. Apparently I was wrong.
= )Thesp wrote:Interesting. The last time I made that suggestion about someone who had experience and was suggesting No Lynch, I was wrong. My vote's been justified.Thesp wrote:I don't think his suggestion makes it more likely he's scum.
Wasn't Ether pushing for my lynch because I also went after AndrewS?Ether wrote:vote: AndrewS I don't really care about a no-lynch vote; it's too blatant for me to care particularly. That it seems you weren't expecting FoSes for it concerns me a bit more. Er, I'm confused about that post I just quoted.
(On a fluffy note, let's see what I can spark.
Damn I'm face-to-face!)
I hate this reason. As I've stated before (and will again) I always suspect anyone who does something "just to get reactions". This is a ticket out of any thing they've done, and I personally believe it is scummy.AndrewS wrote:Alright, alright...Guess I'll explain. I voted no lynch and said that in order to get peoples' reactions. Many times, by doing or saying something unexpected, you can learn a lot from simple reactions...And while I haven't gotten anything concrete from it, I do believe that I have sort of a feel for who to watch for. Not enough for a vote, mind you, just sort of a feeling for it.
The benefits for Andrew.Patrick wrote:I'm still just pretty much neutral on Andrew. I don't see particularly what benefit he could have hoped to gain from doing this as a 'scummy gambit'. It's not like we would be persuaded to no lynch. In a town full of new players maybe, but not here.
Like MGM's first post.MGM wrote:Vote: CES for being way too talkative.
The best he had at this point was a weak metagaming point.mgm wrote:No, from what I've seen from CES, he's usually relatively silent and only becomes really active when he's scum. Granted, part of that is based on a face-to-face game in real life, but it's the best I've got.
For what it's worth: I didn't notice the game started.
CES wrote:I play differently in real life games. I didn't rack up my post count by only being active when I'm scum.
I'm going to break down this post, little by little.AndrewS wrote:Explain why my little plan wouldn't work, and/or is a scummy idea. I've played in a good number of games on this site, and I've never seen the mafia successfully go no lynch in any of the games that I've been in. For that matter, I've never actually seen the mafia attempt to go no lynch(except in newbie games). Ergo, why would I actually attempt it, other than the idea that I have presented? As for what information I gathered, I was hoping to see who was lynch-hungry. As it is, several were. The only of those that I feel were particularly scummy was Adele - it's quite common for a mafia to vote, and then to state a rule, nothing else. As for her reasoning that I should have thought of something that wouldn't hurt the town if it was taken up, with this group of players, it's rather obvious that the town would NOT take me up on it. Therefore, I think that the town's best move at this point is:
Unvote, Vote: Adele
AndrewS Has effectively "Cleared" himself., as he tries to do here. Since no scum have ever done it, and he did it, he must not be scum!AndrewS wrote:Explain why my little plan wouldn't work, and/or is a scummy idea. I've played in a good number of games on this site, and I've never seen the mafia successfully go no lynch in any of the games that I've been in. For that matter, I've never actually seen the mafia attempt to go no lynch(except in newbie games). Ergo, why would I actually attempt it, other than the idea that I have presented?
Even though voting for a nolynch is usually considered scummy, he does it to see who's lynch happy. Therefore, anyone who voted him for what most would consider a scummy move is scum because they're lynch happy.AndrewS part 2 wrote:As for what information I gathered, I was hoping to see who was lynch-hungry. As it is, several were. The only of those that I feel were particularly scummy was Adele - it's quite common for a mafia to vote, and then to state a rule, nothing else. As for her reasoning that I should have thought of something that wouldn't hurt the town if it was taken up, with this group of players, it's rather obvious that the town would NOT take me up on it. Therefore, I think that the town's best move at this point is:
Unvote, Vote: Adele
Some fun Wifomy logic! "If I were to do this as a godfather, that would be silly, so I must not be one! But Adele is still scum"AndrewS wrote:FOS: CES You don't care about my intention? That seems rather interesting to me. If I were to use this as a godfather, that would be an incredibly silly move. As for the reactions that I've gotten, it has sparked discussion and led me to suspect Adele. I was hoping for more, but I can only work on what I am given after making the move.
She thought it was originally a null tell, but earlier she voted him for it? Please correct me if I'm wrong butEther wrote:unvote; vote: IH. Watching Adele and Mgm; I'm not really focused on IH in particular.
I don't know if I'd believe Andrew if I came in to see his reaction before anyone else posted. I do know that I really dislike the responses to him. I thought the original vote was a null tell. Where's the WIFOM? Just what are you people arguing?
Voidie, you've acknowledged this without really touching it: posts 53 and 57. Thoughts?
Patrick I never understood why you thought Andrew was more town because of the way the wagon built up.Patrick wrote:The way the wagon built up, I'd be more inclined towards thinking Andrew is town. I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.
Did you not understand the Wifom Logical fallacy that was pointed out? Why did you think they were suspect for voting based on a nolynch/WIFOM fallacy tell?Patrick wrote:I think the ppl who just shouted Wifom are suspect. Like Ether, there are several ppl I could vote.
:GoodPosting:Thesp wrote:In my experience, scum tend to suggest "no lynch" more than town do, perhaps because it eliminates an early voting record (sometimes it's hard to go after a non-scum in a game where you're scum), or for who knows what reason. Regardless of justification, it tends to be somethings scum do more frequently (yes, town does it too, but not as often, I believe).
I really don't like all of these things from Andrew Jumping out at me. His Nolynch suggestion, his bad defense full of logical fallacy, the appeals to emotion...... = (AndrewS wrote:Think what you will....It's your decision. As for Thesp's question, no, I couldn't tell as easily who was willing to jump quickly. Random voting patterns are impossible to discern information from. This was simply my attempt to bring out information on day 1 rather than lynching randomly. If I'm lynched for it, then so be it.
Not paying attention count-1MGM wrote:Hmm, I could've sworn I unvoted you. I think I'm messing up my games.
Unvote: CES
Vote: Glork
There's only one situation in which no lynch on day 1 is a viable choice. Now isn't one of them and Glork is experienced enough to know it.
I seriously think there's some kind of fallacy in here. It's just like.... you don't see any case on Andrew, because of the way his wagon built up and he couldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch, so it's just as good as if he didn't....Patrick wrote:I don't really understand what you're saying here. I said that obviously Andrew wouldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch because it's a bad idea.
CES says he only had 400 something posts. Going with a long Hiatus from who knows how long, and I don't know, but I'm pretty sure I've never played with him before the last month or so...Patrick wrote:Andrew knows the ppl he is playing with, and he is semi experienced. I doubt he thought he could push a no lynch agenda through. As for the wagon, I made it clear that I thought there was oppotunistic scum on it. It felt more like going for an easy lynch than bussing a scumbuddy.
So you say. This cannot be proven to us though.AndrewS wrote:Thesp - considering that I know that I am town beyond the shadow of a doubt, is that not a logical suggestion for me to make? While it may not be that convincing if I am not a given, I am simply trying to explain my thought processes.
Not paying attention count-2.MGM wrote:Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself, but just in case someone wants to hear it.
AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.
Granted, you might get a few scum on your bandwagon, but not because they're opportunists, it will be because you called the wagon on yourself and it's logical to punish scummy actions or take action against anti-town play. Scum want to mix in, so if the town wagons you, they'll join (regardless of whether you're their buddy or a townie). It's not rocket science.
I don't see a post per day or so. = |Nightfall wrote:I am able to post once or twice per game per real life day.
So far this game has been running for 3 days (not including today).
I have only not posted in the last two days because I have been trying to take in everything that has been said.
I will FOS: AndrewS though.
I would say more, I had actually planned to, but then I read Thesp's latest comment and just like MGM thought "Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself". So yeah, as odd as it sounds, and as hard as it feals to say.... I currently agree with Thesp.....
If you'll excuse me, I've now got to go and wash my mouth out with some soap...
More appeals to emotion.Andrew wrote:If anyone has any questions that I can answer, I would be more than willing to. Otherwise, I have posted my story, everything that I know to post. When I'm lynched and turn up town, you all might want to do some serious reconsideration of a few people.
I'm going to sum up Andrew's reasoning.Andrew wrote:Certainly. CES, Adele and Thesp.
So... you don't think that Andrew was scummy because town wouldn't go for a nolynch?Ether wrote:The initial attack on AndrewS was that a no-lynch would hurt the town. It's been pointed out that a no-lynch wouldn't actually happen. So, yeah. The reason that scum would be more likely than town to vote no-lynch seems gone. Now what? (I don't mind Thesp's statistics argument, incidentally, and it even rings a bell, but I don't feel it's good enough for a lynch.)
I know we know what we're doing.... but you cannot convince me that it was not serious. Since it's an invitational, it makes me even more convinced. There's no newbies to suggest it. How would experienced players take it coming fromEther wrote:Um, IH? Despite it containing Ether, this is an invitational. We know what we're doing (or in my case, we know who to bribe and/or blackmail and/or sleep with). Off the top of my head, I don't remember even newbie games on 'Scum where an unoptimal no-lynch agenda actually got through. It in no way made Andrew more town; just, I didn't find it scummy. (Now, his own behavior after the vote...well, if his wagon didn't go ridiculous, I'd probably still be on it.)
...."Can you explain how a vote for a nolynch equates to an actual nolynch? Seems Harmless"Ether wrote:Many of the people who placed votes on him did so for bullshit reasons. IH, can you explain how a vote for no-lynch equates to an actual no-lynch? Seems pretty harmless to me. Where specifically was the WIFOM you were talking about?
not paying attention count-3MGM wrote:I do. Because you actually voted no lynch when we were discussing how bad a no lynch would be for the town following Andrew's bandwagon. If you're pro-town, surely you have a better place to put your vote than on a no lynch you know won't happen. It is a waste of voting power.Glork wrote:Alright, let's take an informal poll?MGM wrote:AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.
Who here thinks I was *actually* serious about my No-Lynch suggestion?
Though he was on both of them I believe.....MGM wrote:I actually see the attack of both Andrew's and Glork's bandwagoners as more opportunistic than the actual bandwagoning. We have to start somewhere and voting someone suggesting a no lynch on day 1 is pretty standard.
I was sucking up to Thesp... for agreeing with his reasoning? Bullshit. There's not much curiosity to be had when I see something scummy my friend. Sorry that I'm "opportunistic scum" for voting for/going after someone who is scummy to me.Patrick wrote:I'm not really feeling the CES wagon.
Unvote, Vote: IH
He just seems to be cruising along too easily on this AndrewS thing, and I don't like his reasons. I don't see much curiosity from him. Also, the sucking up to Thesp... I've seen that before.
MGM wrote:
I actually see the attack of both Andrew's and Glork's bandwagoners as more opportunistic than the actual bandwagoning. We have to start somewhere and voting someone suggesting a no lynch on day 1 is pretty standard.
This caught my interest. Are you saying that Andrew bandwagoners have made themselves into easy targets for oppotunistic scum? Are you going to look at IH's play with a straight face and tell me that he isn't oppotunistic scum? >_>
What did you think of my play by the way? You kind of ignored Patrick's question.MGM wrote:I'm not going to say anything about IH's play before checking his posts.
As for the quote. I don't say the bandwagoners made themeselves into eassy targets. That would imply the wrong causal relationship. I'm saying they're not opportunistic for bandwagoning, but that the people attacking them for their bandwagoning are the opportunistic scum.
Truth. Truth.Thesp wrote:I think you are missing the whole point of the argument, as this is entirely mis-stated. The question is not, "Could this affect the lynch for the day?", it's "Why is he voting No Lynch?" His motivations are not necessarily equivalent with the expected outcome.
mmmm. You assume we know that you're not lying scum worming their way out.AndrewS wrote:Thesp: You have a problem in your logic: You assume that my intentions follow my vote, and that I intended for the town to go no lynch. I did not. I did want to see reactions. As such, we have more information now than we would have normally for a day 1 lynch. It won't be entirely random. That was my goal, really. But, no, I never truly intended the town to go no lynch.
Not paying attention count-4MGM wrote:Glork doing the same when he knew it was a stupid move is scummier.
Err, actually there is, and the argument's been out on the table. Which means we still do notAndrewS wrote:Thesp, I could say the same about you. If I was scum, and I knew that I wouldn't be able to convince town to go no lynch, what would I profit from suggesting it? If you accept the fact that I did not expect the town to go no lynch, you must logically assume that I had another reason for voting it. What do you suppose that reason was? Saying it is because I am mafia makes no sense, because if I do not expect the town to go no lynch, and it does not, it merely makes me a target. Saying it was to attract attention to myself then clear myself is absolutely ludicrous. There is no defensible way that you can say that you thought that I didn't believe the town would go no lynch yet am still mafia.
This was stupid on my part. I most definitely Misread Thesp's posts at the time.IH wrote:igmeoy:Thesp... Even though you're strongly supporting an Andrew lynch, I don't like how you're kind of... turning it into something else.
I still maintain that with this being invitational only, Andrew didn't know how a nolynch suggestion would go. I mostly believe this because of the scummy defense which... doesn't look to good for him.
err..... how couldn't you?Patrick wrote:Mod whenever you get back can you prod MBL for us please?
I agree with what Thesp said about Nightfalls last post. I could see a link between the two of them because Nightfall attacks him on several points then only FoSes him, then votes Ether. Misrepresents her too. Looking at Ether's last post I didn't get the vibe of "AndrewS can do no wrong".
Eh, I'm still not convinced on this.Glork wrote:Not really, IH. Scum will staunchly defend townies at time to make themselves look good. In fact, if Ether turns up scum, at this point, I'd be more inclined to believe that AndrewS is pro-town.
Not paying attention count-5MGM wrote:I am reading the game, but that doesn't mean I'm not fallible. Just like anyone else I'm prone to forgetting and overlooking stuff. If you can't agree to that, I could say you're not reading the thread too. I had to repeat a question in post 191 because you failed the answer it earlier. Either you didn't read it, or you purposely choose not to answer a question directed at you. Neither is a particular townish reaction.
We disagree about each other's actions. That doesn't mean that the posts of either of us is less intelligent than the other. We're in an invitational, so we can assume we're both good enough players. What you said is a logical fallacy according to the MafiaWiki http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... the_Person
....So... one person's reason invalidates the whole argument?Ether wrote:That's what Mgm at least attacked as WIFOM, and he was the first. I in no way believe that an attempt to get people arguing prevents the instigator from being scum--but a serious push for a no-lynch is as unlikely as Andrew said it was, and this is what was attacked.MGM wrote:You're sidestepping the question. Why would I seriously claim it, other than what I stated?
Speaking of which, Mgm's posts give off a vibe of overwhelming stupid and I don't actually find them scummy. Hey, Thesp--what was your alternate theory?
AndrewS wrote:SV: Placing the last vote would be bad for me regardless: If the lynched was scum, it would look like bussing. If the lynched was town, it would be me trying to get rid of townies. I just want to make sure that we do lynch someone before the deadline.
LAWLThesp wrote:Which is awesome when several people do that. In fact, it makes it hard for someone to get to the point of hammertization when people hold back their votes. I'm adding this to the "list of crap spewed forth from the mouth of AndrewS this game" tally.
When I look at this post all I can think is.... "protecting scum buddy by randomising with townies"Adele wrote:Perhaps even literally.
My ideal vigging scenario (I know you're all on tenterhooks ) would be if SV took town input, picked out about 3 solid targets (and told us who, possibly) and random.org'd between them. Randomisation is a valid methodology in Game Theory precisely because of WIFOM issues (although the textbooks don't call it that), and I'm always uncomfortable playing stone-paper-scissors if I don't even know who the opponent is.
I'll try to pick a better target for my vote today - if not, I'll try to present a valid reason for failing. I may well be unable to post over the weekend, so please excuse that, but I'll certainly be back Monday. I'm not lurking.
QFTCES wrote:Um, Adele, I don't see how picking 3 targets rather than 1 would in any way be a boon to the town. It's not like she's a cop, her target is hardly influence the scum's nightkill. Picking 3 targets would only make the pool of possible investigations smaller.
Not with a deadline. If you want to, you can do a meta on me, as this is one thing I almost ALWAYS do at a deadline announcement is to vote for the highest wagon.Patrick wrote:I still find this worrying. On a dice roll you go along and ask someone to claim. It seems strange that you'd be 'putting together' a case only after she's virtually confirmed. I would have thought you need a case before you vote.