NY 161: Overly-Posh Mafia (POSH WIN - NIGHT X)

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: mozamis

I like the mozamis wagon a touch more than the Bitmap one. mozamis, would you say you generally form town reads quickly?

Aj The Epic, what do you make of TheReverend's explanation for his quickly shifting votes? p-edit: Lord Mhork, what did you think of the explanation?

[penguin_alien]

Didn't you already explain this, TheReverend?

[penguin_alien]

There is actually enough shit going on that questions to "stir discussion" aren't really needed. yet, those are the type Penguin asked.

So you're saying sufficient discussion is going on that I shouldn't attempt to get answers that I think are relevant to my reads? That's patently absurd. mozamis came out with some firm opinions early on that didn't have a lot to back them up that I could see; I wanted to know if this was how he usually approached things in his opinion. Yes, I could go look at his games, but I'd rather hear him tell me how he views that play, as I think that's more informative.

To my way of thinking, TheReverend had quite adequately explained the multiple votes he'd placed. So I wanted to see how Aj The Epic would react to his explanation specifically. That Lord Mhork still felt the need to call TheReverend out on said votes while caught up when TheReverend had provided an explanation was even more peculiar to me; like he was trying to score points without listening to the full story.

I think the Bitmap wagon is absurd, although it should be interesting to examine how people are choosing to jump on and off willy-nilly. Especially PeregrineV's posting about the Bitmap-Om of the Nom interaction. I thought it was very clear what Bitmap meant, and that PeregrineV chose to misinterpret it so drastically doesn't sit well with me.

I actually liked mozamis's response to my question, but he negated that and then some with his sheeping vote. I can buy that he's in agreement about the case, but unless he really thinks it's an iron-clad scum case, I'd think he'd have some questions to pose on his own. That he doesn't bother looks rather opportunistic.

He's asking for self-meta from moazmis. That's just stupid. If he's town, he'd take the effort to go do it himself (unless he's Majiffy in disguise). If he cares, he would look for the good meta, not ask for useless self-meta.

He's testing the waters on Bitmap, mozamis, and Rev. He doesn't commit to any of these wagons or even offer a solid read on any of them. He could point back to this post as evidence of reads forming on any of those three players and it would look at least semi-convincing. In reality, though, there's no substance to this post.

I don't have a lot of faith in my ability to read games of someone I've never played with and get a good meta read on them. If I've played through a game with someone, that changes. I didn't mean my statement about the mozamis vs. Bitmap wagon to mean that I particularly liked the Bitmap wagon; I just thought that the mozamis one was the only one worth pursuing at all. And I think I've addressed my take on TheReverend, so.

Less immediately relevant: I'm a she; being called 'he' in such a large game is going to get tedious right quick.

[penguin_alien]

Majiffy, who's Archive?

mozamis reacting positively to someone (pirate mollie) for whom he voted for serious reasons at one point reading him as town seems off. mozamis, what has pirate mollie done that makes her someone whose opinion you care about? I realize that you decided that sheeping votes on me would be the best use of your vote, but nothing you posted around the time of your vote change indicated that you didn't have a scum read on pirate mollie any more. And if she is scum in your opinion, why would her believing you to be town be of any import? You say that you think she's town because she reads you as town, if I'm understanding correctly--that's not a very strong argument to my way of thinking.

I somewhat agree with those people calling out Lord Mhork. He says he's voting pirate mollie for jumping between wagons, once I believe. But he doesn't buy TheReverend's explanation for jumping votes multiple times, yet doesn't vote him over pirate mollie. Lord Mhork, you say:

On my wagon for a couple hours, then gets bored and jumps on someone else. I don't know how I feel about this. Wagon jumping is usually sketch, right?

Do you actually think wagon jumping is sketch, or are you finding a popularly accepted reason to vote someone? If you do, why specifically is it suspicious in the early stages of the game?

[penguin_alien]

Politicians?

[penguin_alien]

MattP, my post was under 300 words. And I prefer clay to mud. Although I suppose it's true that my avatar's in a suit...

[penguin_alien]

Posting only about things that do not concern you

Asking questions of people I find scummy doesn't concern me? What, pray tell, should concern me? If I was ignoring questions posed to me, sure, I'd buy that this is a problem, but as it stands, to my recollection the only people showing interest in me beyond my style of posting are PeregrineV, who's V/LA, and mozamis, who's sheeping and doesn't seem to want any information from me in particular.

And MattP, I'm nearly always as polite as possible, regardless of alignment. Or at least I try to be. And somehow I feel that Overly-Posh Mafia isn't the place to change that attitude. Regardless, I want answers to my questions to mozamis and Lord Mhork to determine whether mozamis or Lord Mhork is scummier before I go supporting the Lord Mhork lynch.

Thanks for the clarification, Om of the Nom.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry mozamis, somehow I confused your early reference to pirate_mollie with a vote. But I appreciate you addressing the question anyways.

UNVOTE: mozamis
VOTE: Lord Mhork

[penguin_alien]

MattP, what about Lord Mhork's posts made you "less comfortable advocating for his lynch today"? And I'm not following your case against I Am Innocent, nor do I see why pirate mollie's 'me too!' post is oh-so-wonderful.

[penguin_alien]

MattP, why do you think anyone should be persuaded by your vote on I Am Innocent without an explanation? Except apparently JacobSavage who is sheeping for no apparent reason. The end of page 37 was really scummy.

UNVOTE: Lord Mhork
VOTE: JacobSavage

I don't love Lord Mhork feeling the need to get affirmation on his belief that wagon jumping is sketchy, but his rationale tracks, so.

[penguin_alien]

EBWOP: and chkflip and zabriel as far as I can see, although chkflip sees meta reasons and zabriel...apparently buys MattP percentages? Which, last time I saw someone overly invested in percentages they were town, so it's just marginally better than JacobSavage's sheeping galore.

[penguin_alien]

JacobSavage, why do you trust MattP enough to sheep him? Why are you asking mozamis (#1058) about his choice of lynches if you plan to sheep MattP, who isn't voting mozamis?

[penguin_alien]

I hate ArcAngel9's post. This is not a no-lynch situation, and if there weren't more consistently scummy people, I'd want to rake that stance over the coals.

As it stands, Majiffy's summation of the case is persuasive. I don't want to dismiss JacobSavage, as that wall of reads is horrible when coupled with the fact that he was questioning mozamis to get a read on him, yet the best JacobSavage came up with is null. But TheUnderachivers looks pretty scummy, and I don't think we're going to get a better lynch or much more material to chew over relative to the worth of the bankable deadline, so:

UNVOTE: JacobSavage
VOTE: TheUnderachivers

By my count this is L-1.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: JacobSavage

Still hasn't provided any content with documented reasons beyond sheeping and conveniently doesn't have chkflip on his last reads post at all.

[penguin_alien]

His choice of activity here, i.e. sheeping with no opinions, is still scummy. And cult strikes me as a different type of scum than we're likely to see here, which makes a comparison of his attitudes less relevant to me.

[penguin_alien]

pirate mollie's last post is the towniest she's sounded this game to me, although she was more indeterminate than scum to me before.

I find it weird that UberNinja would seem to object to a derp-lynch at this stage rather than on the 'final day' as he outlines in #1642. Shouldn't it be the other way around? If he means 'final day' as in LyLo, isn't that the last time you want to policy lynch?

UberNinja, can you cite any games where scum-Vifam was unusually grammatically correct in contrast to haphazard typing as town-Vifam?

Still waiting for JacobSavage to express an opinion that isn't sheeping. And I for one didn't interpret the chkflip-loss of time penalty as a town indicator; maybe I'm naive, but I figured that a time crunch might be detrimental to scum in that they'd be more likely to slip in making cases under increased time pressure and/or fail to whittle our numbers via lynching with shorter time frames to work with. A moot point now, but given that Maestro didn't seem to react immediately implied that he'd thought through the ramifications of his penalty choice.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja's willingness to cop to misinterpreting Vifam's grammar thing makes me think the former is town, although I don't see that I was unreasonable in asking UberNinja to back up his original statement. If he'd come back telling me to check out any/all of Vifam's games to see such a tell in action, I'd have tracked it/them down, but given that Vifam seems to have around 50 games, and I'd think if some straightforward tell had existed in all of them he'd have adjusted accordingly, I don't think it was unreasonable to ask UberNinja to back up the point originally.

Other reads, pirate mollie (oddly enough, responding to actual questions does take precedent over testosterone spewing): even with TheUnderachivers' flip and the twilight interactions, I think Majiffy is town; I don't concur with ArcAngel9's portrayal of his 'convincing' her to hammer TheUnderachivers as scummy. In many cases I'd find her posting outright scummy, but having seen her make some rash decisions in other games, it doesn't seem unusual for her town game. I looked over the scum game Lord Mhork cited, and I didn't see anything there that wasn't evident in her town games, so I'm not sure what scum meta tells he has on her.

The I Am Innocent wagon has never made sense to me; his questions seem town-motivated, and when people voting for him are pressed for reasons, they don't seem to come up with much. zabriel in particular seems to have the main reason why he liked the I Am Innocent wagon in the first place as too large a null read list. I've seen town-zabriel fly low, but I feel like such instances had him providing more relevant content in the posts he made, so I'd put him as leaning scum.

Vifam, I feel like I should have a better read on him after 200+ posts, but the best I can say is that he's town enough to me that I wouldn't support a lynch on him. mozamis gets townier to me as the game goes on. MattP on the other hand has gotten less persuasive with more posts, where it seems like he should have more material to use as evidence in his cases, yet he's good to spend more time griping that people aren't sheeping him than giving people reason to follow his lead. Bitmap read as townish to me, and AngryPidgeon hasn't done anything to change that.

The thing with JacobSavage is, I feel like I've seen him being involved in a recently completed Micro game where he was town in a way that he's not at all here, so I don't feel badly for expecting a bit more from him here.

[penguin_alien]

On the way out the door, but in the interest of completeness, may I add Open 468: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=24196 as what exists for my meta for SK, FWIW.

[penguin_alien]

Wow, drive through a blizzard, settle in to eight pages of zaniness.

My question to those who are positing that I Am Innocent's quick cop claim was scummy: what was the alternative? We're on a bankable deadline, so we don't necessarily have time for a wagon to run up and then get a claim. Regardless, a claim was expected promptly. If he'd refused to answer, he'd have been run up in all likelihood. For I Am Innocent to claim anything other than his (presumed) role would have risked outing another PR and left him stuck claiming truthfully anyways after having been caught out lying. Which wouldn't have helped his eventually being believed anyways. Yes, he could have waited out MattP to see if he was gambiting, but unless they set this up ahead of time and counted on no cop CCing I Am Innocent, again it's a waste of time. There was no reason for MattP to relent on his gambit until he got a result.

Look at that: my conclusion after ten minutes including the time to catch up on the thread. It's not that complicated, and it's not even me in I Am Innocent's position, who presumably has been considering his PR since the game started.

I don't know about MattP, but this doesn't decrease my lousy feelings about those who jumped on the I Am Innocent wagon. Again, I come back to zabriel here. And since JacobSavage seems to have flown the coop for now and Lord Mhork is to be confirmed-town:

VOTE: zabriel

[penguin_alien]

Based on?

[penguin_alien]

Dreams of Grandeur, why is zabriel a town read for you?

[penguin_alien]

Majiffy - 1: ArcAngel9
I Am Innocent - 2: zabriel, JacobSavage
JacobSavage 4: mozamis, I Am Innocent, UberNinja, Vifam
UberNinja - 2: MattP, PeregrineV
MattP - 3: AJ the epic, pirate mollie, AngryPidgeon
ArcAngel9 - 4: Lord Mhork, Dreams of Grandeur, borkjerfkin, TheReverend
mozamis- 1: Majiffy
zabriel - 1: penguin_alien

is the VC I come up with.

Dreams of Grandeur, I disagree with you on how zabriel's playing based on how I've seen him play, but I don't think that lynch is going anywhere anyways.

I don't like lynching someone on V/LA, so I'm good to put JacobSavage off for now. MattP or ArcAngel9 seem like decent choices, given that we're closing in on a week's worth of bankable time.

UNVOTE: zabriel

I'm torn between supporting the ArcAngel9 lynch or the MattP one. MattP's gambit seems to have zero expected payoff, given that if I Am Innocent had been scum and fake-claimed, it would have necessitated a town PR CC in all likelihood, but ArcAngel9 has been pretty unproductive, and I can see her coasting on the 'only town would have quickhammered!' thing for a while.

VOTE: ArcAngel9

[penguin_alien]

Eight votes as far as I can tell.

[penguin_alien]

MattP, I'm still trying to understand the thought process behind your reaction test of I Am Innocent last day phase. You say that if he'd been a VT, he'd have 1v1'd you, calling out your fake claim. Which is all well and good, but given that if you'd been right about him being scum he'd most likely have claimed a PR that would have been truthfully CC'd, and if he had a PR with or without a gun he'd probably have been forced to claim truthfully to avoid being strung up under LaL(iars). So either we get a one for one trade for scum vs. PR (which might be acceptable?) or we out a PR based on your hunch that you couldn't get anyone to follow?

I get more of a town vibe from your posts this day phase, and I'm more suspicious of people like zabriel and JacobSavage who happily traipsed along after your proposed wagon, but my vote on ArcAngel9 over you last day phase wasn't a slam-dunk, no matter how well it worked out, and I don't think her flip invalidates the suspicion on you.

zabriel's ISO shows a lack of commitment to anything that isn't hopping on wagons and he's projecting a studied air of indifference to game events with all the references to being stoned. JacobSavage still reads scummy to me for his lackadaisical sheeping Day One, and his two read lists, one with zero reasoning shown and one that copied the OP (?!?) don't improve on that.

I don't know if having pirate mollie directing our kills to avoid outing the last mason is optimal. I get that a mason pair is very useful, and the IC isn't too shabby, but if there are other PRs out there, saying who's getting investigated gives scum a to-be-conf-town target that has a non-zero chance of having an active power that would mess with scum plans. This whole line of logic only follows anyways if we're expecting a role claim from the investigation target. Why not just make it acceptable for said last mason to claim VT if pressed, and if pirate mollie is NK'd and scum tries to claim mason, it's a 1v1 situation where we only risk losing a non-active PR? I'd think the odds of I Am Innocent picking the last mason are low enough that the lack of info for scum is a better advantage.

I don't think The Reverend is scummy for not falling in love with the 'pirate mollie directs our cop to protect a passive PR' plan. I'd agree that Vifam pushed ArcAngel9 enough to be dismissed as a scum suspect, given that JK seems like a scum role worth protecting on their team. borkjerfkin saying the ArcAngel9 vote was a compromise rather than going for town credit with the vote makes me think he wasn't in the know about her being scum.

zabriel, do you have a scum read on anyone?

[penguin_alien]

Blergh, meant investigations. Apologies for driving you crazy.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry mozamis, somehow I confused your early reference to pirate_mollie with a vote.

Majiffy, this was where I made a factual mistake earlier in the thread.

[penguin_alien]

AngryPidgeon, I've seen zabriel lurk as town, and he seemed to be less inclined to throw in excuses and extraneous content then. There's enough to read that's relevant in this 100+ page game without going through posts talking about how stoned he is.

I was thinking about how things would work with pirate mollie giving us two investigation targets, with the unchosen one being held over for the next day to reduce the PoE in scum finding the last mason on their end. I don't know if giving the scum a ballpark to work in offsets not making the last mason conf-town for them though.

I don't love the part in borkjerfkin's ISO where he goes from thinking the only scummy thing I've done is not write off UberNinja's Vifam-grammar theory (here) and has me as one of his top lynch choices a couple pages later (here). And then goes to voting I Am Innocent here. I guess I'm willing to see where this goes.

VOTE: borkjerfkin

[penguin_alien]

What part of MattP's argument persuaded you? Because he didn't have much luck with most of the game. And given that you were willing to lynch your compromises, I don't see a huge difference in effect there.

[penguin_alien]

(OT: I never figured out how that Q+ thing worked either; thanks!)

pirate mollie, what from me do you think is scummy, as I'm not sure I agree that ArcAngel9 wouldn't have been lynched without my assistance, given her weak reaction to being run up, and I'd rather hash this out early in the day.

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying I don't think I was vital to the lynch, where pirate mollie does. Not my best sentence construction; the point was that I want to address pirate mollie's scum read on me.

[penguin_alien]

...you doubt the mod-confirmed IC?!?

[penguin_alien]

If I'm wrong about this I'll eat a fucking screwdriver

That was a bona fide scum slip

what about penguin's

penguin's what? scum slip?

Here's what she's talking about:

I don't know if having pirate mollie directing our

kills

to avoid outing the last mason is optimal. I get that a mason pair is very useful, and the IC isn't too shabby, but if there are other PRs out there, saying who's getting investigated gives scum a to-be-conf-town target that has a non-zero chance of having an active power that would mess with scum plans. This whole line of logic only follows anyways if we're expecting a role claim from the investigation target. Why not just make it acceptable for said last mason to claim VT if pressed, and if pirate mollie is NK'd and scum tries to claim mason, it's a 1v1 situation where we only risk losing a non-active PR? I'd think the odds of I Am Innocent picking the last mason are low enough that the lack of info for scum is a better advantage.

Emphasis added.

[penguin_alien]

JS-scum because AA defends him isn't doing it for me. This smells like a cheap-shot at somebody who has been MIA from the site. Not a fan.

So what is your read on JacobSavage? As someone recently pointed out, even if he's been MIA lately, he was posting before.

11-20 Pages…

Boner list of town is been increased, but haven’t specified reads for it.. but out of nowhere he votes OM and Vifam follows him. That wonders me who is buddying up whom, it’s too easy to see both of them are scum mates, but one of the could be scum… IGMEON Vifam and Boner
Surprisingly Bitmap is slowed down , not sure if he is running away from the attention… And he ends up asking for Day Vig, that was weird but he is being him again which is crazy and confusing all the time.
Peregrine reads town
TheReverend read town
Herobrine leans slight scum
Zabriel is null so far..
Majiffy is pretty much null, not sure if that’s how he normally plays so he is neutral
Mozamis seems bit aggressive in responding

What do you make of the difference between how she treats her nulls? She leaves herself license to change her mind on her read of me and fills her read of Majiffy full of weasel-words and bullshit about ignorance of his meta.

Reposting the full reads list because what I actually find most interesting about this is that she included zabriel at all. Most of the people on the list were either significant topics of discussion or contributing a lot of content up to that point, and I see that least from zabriel. Why bother including him, especially just to say that he's a null read without any elaboration? It doesn't seem worth it to set him up, which makes me think he's a partner and she's forcing including a read on him.

Coupled with his ISO having a lot of throwing things against the wall to see what sticks, like:

This is something that is making me wonder right now. Is Om hiding his partner in plain sight? Or is he setting us up?

where 'his partner' is Bitmap, but zabriel declines to give an opinion.

zabriel hammering ArcAngel9 would be more persuasive if that lynch hadn't been pretty inevitable by that point.

I'm not getting any town vibes from zabriel, and I think he's a better lynch than borkjerfkin. It remains to be seen whether he's a better lynch than JacobSavage, depending on what/if JacobSavage posts after V/LA.

UNVOTE: borkjerfkin

VOTE: zabriel

[penguin_alien]

pirate_mollie, I didn't think you thought my ArcAngel9 vote was scummy; I was saying you gave me too much town cred for it.

Regarding the kill thing, it was once; please point out a second instance (my iso's relatively short). The other error I recall is misremembering a statement from mozamis. It's also in my iso. As for the scum-looking mistake, I was thinking about the ramifications of pointing out investigation targets to scum, namely that they'd be more likely to be killed, rendering them less useful. I can throw out any number of arguments about why it was an honest mistake from town rather than a scum slip, but it comes down to your read of my play overall: did I make a meaningless derp mistake or am I diabolical scum who tripped up?

[penguin_alien]

OK, pretend I'd typed 'investigations' instead of kills; what do you think about the arguments against feeding the scum our investigation target, at least as one and one pick only?

[penguin_alien]

FYI, mozamis is dead.

[penguin_alien]

I strongly prefer a zabriel lynch over Majiffy. I'm not on a device that I can select text with, making quoting a huge pain, but zabriel keeps asking either/or questions without coming down on a side (see: post of questions about buldermar #3451) but when people start making noises about it being him or Majiffy, suddenly Majiffy is clear scum. And out of 350+ posts from Majiffy, one comment about zabriel is what he uses for a scum read?

[penguin_alien]

Why aren't we lynching zabriel? As sorry as I am to hear of his computer misfortunes, nothing he posted before or after the peak of his wagon gave me a town read. If someone else reversed their read on him, please explain, because I'm not seeing it.

[penguin_alien]

My two cents: if the mason is a serious target, outting would let us stop wasting time there. Otherwise a fake mason claim boils down to 1 vs. 1, which is only problematic at LyLo situations.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: MattP

This is L-1 I believe.

[penguin_alien]

I'm not sure what the optimal play is here. I don't think there was much choice other than lynching MattP yesterday barring a PR claim, and I'm assuming that if anyone had PR-derived information to demonstrate that I Am Innocent isn't on the up-and-up they'd have come forward by now. A framer or bus driver or redirector isn't out of the question, but since a framer or redirector would have had to know that I Am Innocent would target Action Dan, that seems less likely; the only reasonable explanation is that scum figured I Am Innocent would investigate a scum team member and so switched said member with known-to-them townie Action Dan via bus driver.

Sorry if that's all repetitive; I'm trying to work it out in my own head right now.

I'm assuming we have no third-party killing roles unless said role is trolling or incredibly unlucky. That means that with a lynch today we're at 10 alive tomorrow, and if scum started out five strong, we're suddenly at MyLo if we don't choose correctly today. Heck, if they started at 6/21, we're at MyLo here. And without an answer as to whether our cop is legit, about all we can count on is scum killing another conf-town tonight.

We have well over a week to work on figuring this out, so I'm not inclined to rush into anything. If we are at MyLo, banking all the time in the world won't help if we choose poorly.

[penguin_alien]

With one scum team in play, a scum bus driver seems pretty useful--they can switch one of their number with anyone else; not only is there a decent shot of messing with the cop's investigation, if they get the cop claiming guilty on one of the three masons, they force the masons (or at least one other) to claim at that time, countering the power of a possible undetected town bloc marching through the game.

[penguin_alien]

Checked the wiki page. Framer is normal, bus driver and redirector are explicitly not normal and not allowed. The 'two not-normal roles' thing covers original and variant roles, not forbidden roles. So, given that the odds of a framer targeting Action Dan are basically nil, either he or IAI is scum, period.

[penguin_alien]

Edit: I think this is what AP meant, but it was vague enough that I had to go clarify. Sorry for the filler!

[penguin_alien]

If IAI is town and AD is caught scum, case closed obviously. But let's say IAI is scum. Isn't there a decent shot he's giving us a scum buddy to optimize the team's chances? If we lynch AD and he's scum we believe IAI for most of the game. If we go with IAI as scum, we write AD off as another attempt from IAI to set up a townie and he slides through.

VOTE: ActionDan

[penguin_alien]

I'm more inclined to believe IAI with his not being CC'd and his crumb over your posting. It's not awful, but it's not towny enough to make me back you over IAI. And yes, I get that we need a good lynch today...as opposed to other days? And yes, scum-IAI might get lynched eventually, but with conf-town to kill at night, it's conceivable that scum would leave a shady PR around in favor of other kills, especially if they only need 1-2 more mislynches.

[penguin_alien]

I addressed the difference in the first part, where if IAI is town you're scum.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: ActionDan

Not sure if we're actually near hammer as someone implied, and I'm not sure enough to see the day end in either lynch yet.

[penguin_alien]

Missed the vote count reading on mobile device; thanks AJ.

UberNinja, do you think there's time to lynch both? Is it feasible that we started with six scum and so are at MyLo, barring fortuitous night actions?

[penguin_alien]

My current take on things:

Known town to all (in the interest of not skipping anything)
pirate mollie
Lord Mhork

Others:
Majiffy: leaning scum
ActionDan: scum
I Am Innocent: scum
AngryPidgeon: leaning town
Aj the Epic: leaning scum
borkjerfkin: null
TheReverend: leaning town
penguin_alien: town
UberNinja: town
Vifam: I don't even know

I just have the feeling that it's not an either/or thing with ActionDan and I Am Innocent unless there was a Framer. If I Am Innocent is scum and we're not at MyLo, it seems like he gets more mileage out of setting up a scum buddy. If he was scum who screwed over MattP yesterday, he'd have to figure there's a huge chance of him getting lynched today, which means that by being truthful about an 'investigation' result leaves a cleared townie behind. Calling a buddy scum means that his lynch leaves us thinking he was setting someone up for a fall, and that buddy being lynched restores our faith in IAI. I realize that this leaves me in the position of wanting both of them dead eventually, but lynching ActionDan first forces IAI to provide another investigation result.

I don't know where the vote count is, but given that there was discussion of a hammer, am I correct that no one's asked ActionDan for a claim?

[penguin_alien]

I assume everyone will be claiming Vanilla.

Who's everyone? I was only checking about ActionDan.

Thanks for the vote count update. I'm more interested in resolving the ActionDan-IAI situation than lynching Majiffy. Even if I'm not 100% sure what resolution I favor. Lynching Majiffy gives us another day of IAI being forced to come up with an investigation, but I think everyone agrees there's guaranteed scum between IAI and ActionDan.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja, I follow your logic on TheReverend-AJ the Epic, but I have a niggling slight town read on TheReverend so I'm far less interested in stringing him up. It's not particularly well-supported, so if we end up nailing scum in AJ down the line I'd revisit, particularly depending on how AJ comes off in the intervening days.

[penguin_alien]

I suppose I can be best friends with anyone for 24 hours. Assuming Maestro doesn't kill you in the meantime. Given that the conf-townies are split, that's not useful.

AngryPidgeon, how likely do you think it is that a) we're at MyLo and b) if IAI is scum he's throwing us one of his buddies?

[penguin_alien]

So much for Posh Mafia. Although I suppose that ship sailed Day One.

AngryPidgeon, since everyone seems to agree that we'll get one more chance to lynch I think we get the most utility out of lynching ActionDan. Either of them flipping scum fails to exonerate the other in my mind, but the claimed cop at least has to give us another investigation result if he lives through the night. Given that no one's come forward with a night result that supports or denies IAI's claim, i.e. tracker, in terms of set-up having a town cop and multiple confirmable townies plus a bodyguard balances a framer and jailkeeper (and the vig goes somewhere in there). For that matter, no one's come forward with any kind of (truthful) investigative role claim. If that's all we have, by my count we're assuming scum JK, framer, three goons; town cop, bodyguard, vig, IC, three masons, thirteen VTs.

What do you consider the most compelling argument to lynch IAI? I'd say the incorrect result on MattP is the worst, we've seen from him, followed far behind by the timing in posting about the ActionDan result. Although it was his first post of the day made less than two hours after the day phase started. I do thunk that if he isn't lynched and lives through the night, we should collectively agree that no one posts anything in the new day phase before he gives us his investigation result.

[penguin_alien]

I was referring to MattP's gunsmith claim in the context of people volunteering claims that would cast doubt on IAI's claim.

[penguin_alien]

Yes: MattP made a false claim that forced IAI to claim. There was no voluntary claim involved there by my standards, as it didn't leave IAI a choice whether he was being honest or having to fall back on his crumb. I'd be shocked if there wasn't some type of investigative role around, and my point was no one's said, "wait, I have an investigative role that seems to overlap too much with IAI's claim"

[penguin_alien]

TheReverend, scum had a JK. The only role we've had on our side that would be worth JKing is the bodyguard, maybe the vig if scum's really afraid the vig will hit them more than town. A JK versus a cop actually makes sense.

I realize that IAI's crumb could have been scum planning ahead. But given that we're within one or two lynches of defeat, I think we have to take a chance. I'll be voting for ActionDan within a few hours unless there's new information.

And with only one scum faction, five scum make them less than 20% of the player list. I still have a hard time swallowing that we're not at MyLo.

[penguin_alien]

No, I unvoted a while ago. And we're not voting Majiffy because there's near-guaranteed scum in IAI-AD, and ignoring it won't resolve the situation.

[penguin_alien]

Because no one else thinks we are and I have no experience in balancing a set-up. pirate mollie, does it make more sense to you that Majiffy is scum with IAI or AD? ArcAngel9's attack on Majiffy Day 2 makes me think they we're buddies. Actually, we could go with Majiffy to make the cop give us more results. What's the strongest evidence against Majiffy in your mind?

[penguin_alien]

Edited to add, I assume?

And what's making you scratch your head?

[penguin_alien]

Must...not...make...non-posh joke...

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, I think lynching ActionDan is our best shot.

VOTE: ActionDan

I believe *cough* this is L-1.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: I Am Innocent

[penguin_alien]

Mass claim with Lord Mhork calling the order, Y/N?

[penguin_alien]

My claim turn, I believe. VT.

UberNinja, show me a game where I killed someone as scum for having a scum read on me. Can't link on mobile device, but my scum games are Newbie 1304 (tried and egregiously failed to kill outed PRs), Open 459 (aimed for those with town reads on me and/or PRs and/or universal town reads), and Open 468 (aimed for the likely vig with a town read on me and a scum read of mine). So you trying to make the pirate mollie kill point at me is ridiculous, all the more so for her being confirmed town.

My inclination is to lynch Majiffy, but I want to make absolutely sure we don't miss anything with the mass claim and make sure I can see for myself what everyone's been saying about him being scum.

And UberNinja saying he has it on good authority that I'm scum makes me think he's scum along with Majiffy. But that's to be expected, so.

[penguin_alien]

EBWOP: Open 468 was an SK game, hence my aiming for scum reads as scum.

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying that his post reads like soft-claiming to have an incriminating result on me, which I know isn't possible. So from my perspective that would make him scum, but I don't expect anyone to think I'd think differently.

Will be back within five hours.

[penguin_alien]

No, hence my aiming for MY scum reads as a different scum group.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja, show me a game where I'm trying to ruffle anyone's feathers as town. Actually, show me a game where I get in anyone's virtual face beyond what's called for by the nature of making accusations. You keep coming up with these things you say scum-me would do when there is zero evidence to back up the idea that I behave that way as scum and not town. I get that there's a school of thought that scum stay cool more readily because they're less offended by being accused, or it's easier to put up a rational front when one knows the game layout. But it seems pretty ridiculous to me to get antagonistic as any alignment when one does have to work with the other players, even more so when one is part of the town majority. YMMV of course; that's my philosophy.

Yes, pirate mollie found me shady. As far as I can tell, it stemmed from her taking a while to read me as scum in a previous game and the much-quoted alleged scum slip where I said 'kill' instead of 'investigation'--funny how no one was interested in pursuing any of that despite both pirate mollie and me explaining what she was talking about ad nauseum until we're at MyLo and it seems like a good thing to dredge up for an easy mislynch. I mean, seriously, Majiffy kept asking her what she was talking about, she or I would tell him, and he'd say he wasn't reading it. Yet now he's happy voting me with nothing more than a Bohemian Rhapsody lyric to accompany it.

Between Majiffy's jump and ArcAngel9's eagerness to blame him for 'leading her astray into hammering' that read as very poor distancing to me, he goes in my scum pile.

UberNinja, you say that I bussed ArcAngel9 for town cred. I maintain that that lynch was going through regardless of my participation. Show me where I tried to use it for town cred, ever.

Which leaves Aj the Epic, borkjerfkin, TheReverend, UberNinja, and Vifam. Now from my perspective, I knew I wasn't going to be able to post for a while. Both UberNinja and Majiffy have votes on me. Everyone else who isn't conf-town has posted between when I said I'd be away and right now. Which means that if three scum weren't voting me, they had ample opportunity to do so when I was away from internet access. For that matter, all four of the not-voting people were online nearly simultaneously, long enough to decide they could risk the quick-lynch. That makes at least one of UberNinja and Majiffy scum. I tend to think they decided to go for broke and take different stances, one pushing the wagon heavily, one drive-by voting.

Aj the Epic, you've pulled six vote counts. Not exactly rigorous. Even looking at what you pulled, three are from Day One. Not to mention you've biased the results by making UberNinja town where you don't even make yourself town as one would expect. Insofar as having three flipped townies on my wagon early on, who else there has three flipped townies on her wagon? Oh, right, pirate mollie. A flipped townie. I have to agree with Vifam that your VCA is pretty unimpressive. I don't love the implications of the idea that you're trying to get others to consider me scum while holding back your vote. With such inflammatory language as 'secretly sitting on every major wagon' like I'm being deceptive...by voting? And where was all this insight into my play was where when you were calling me probtown here?

TheReverend as a whole feels town. borkjerfkin looks about how he did in other games I've played with him as town. Vifam has put himself in a position to make it hard for him to jump on my wagon with anything other than a stealth quick-hammer. I'm ranking my scum picks as Majiffy > Aj the Epic > UberNinja. The coloring UberNinja green from Aj the Epic does make me hesitant to put them on the same team, as I find it more likely that a scum-Aj the Epic forgot that town-UberNinja hadn't flipped yet than that he was trying to prop up his buddy where he didn't do so for himself. And before someone says he might have messed up the coding, it's there in all six vote counts where UberNinja is the voter or votee.

I think Vifam and Penguin need to hydra sometime and never sign their posts.

^ made me laugh. Thank you. (Although I think Vifam would reach across the internet and bash me about the head with his keyboard in sheer annoyance after about one day phase of being saddled with me in a QT.)

[penguin_alien]

Where did I say that I didn't think he was alive? I missed the post before where you decided to make UberNinja conf-town in your vote count where you didn't consider yourself conf-town for your own vote analysis. Going on that, then, at least I can go ahead with having you and UberNinja as simultaneous scum reads.

[penguin_alien]

Oh, and since we're shooting the breeze, Aj the Epic, do you really think there are 3.5 scum in a 21 player game (since the Mafia wiki has a traitor counting as .5 scum)? That actually puts the mason group at the same size as the scum for night-talk purposes.

[penguin_alien]

you're still bringing setup speculation into things?

what the fuck makes you think anyone is falling for your

bullshit

borkjerfkin asked for Aj the Epic's opinion, Aj answered, and I think his answer is rather naive at best, setting up for a stance that we can afford another lynch worry-free at worst.

[penguin_alien]

Majiffy and Aj the Epic

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, I'm going with Majiffy.

VOTE: Majiffy

/in before desperate bussing accusations

[penguin_alien]

So you'd rather help string up someone else for a town loss than argue a case? At MyLo? That's the stance a town player has. Oh, wait...

[penguin_alien]

As faras I can tell from Majiffy's ISO, he thinks the scum team is theReverend, Vifam, and borkjerfkin, although I'm not sure about the last one. If this is the case, he would have expected them to pile on my lynch. That they didn't means he should either be putting me as a top three scum suspect or assuming a scum was already on the wagon, namely UberNinja. So what gives?

[penguin_alien]

OK, so one of them can't be scum from your perspective, yes? I don't expect you to know which one isn't; only that something in your reads needs to be reevaluated. Unless you do expect to know because you're scum who's known what's what all along. Even if you're assuming I am scum, given that the Mafia has indicated they'll kill off nconfirmed townies over conf-town, you should be trying to leave the town in the best possible position for the next day in the event of your death.

[penguin_alien]

No, if you think I'm scum enough to risk the game on my lynch, you should be thinking ahead about how your reads will readjust on my presumed scum flip. That you're not interested in doing so supports the idea that you know lynching me will end in a scum victory, end of story.

[penguin_alien]

If you were town you wouldn't know which scum read to downgrade but you'd think one would need to be. If you're scum, you know I'm town, so with my lynch scum victory follows. Not seing what's so complicated.

Off to throw birdbaths.

[penguin_alien]

Well played to scum, and thanks to Maestro for modding!

[penguin_alien]

yeah I'm honestly kinda surprised the floodgates opened from the dead people in the topic like this. Ive never really seen that happen.

Yeah, normally I wait for the mod to post the final flip if I know the game's over (especially since one never knows for certain when it's not an open game at LyLo) but since there were about 100 posts by the time I got back, that horse had kind of left the barn.

For a posh game of Mafia, I feel like if we'd had a swear jar going, we could throw a pizza party off the proceeds from this game!

[penguin_alien]

Subtle? Where?!?

[penguin_alien]

Vifam and UberNinja totally rate cumulonimbus soundclouds. Some of us, on the other hand, are more of the cirrus soundclouds to our shame.