New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[DarthYoshi]

I investigated Thor (who apparently is now Jon) last night because I recalled him making comments in passing about a SK in the setup even before he said he believed my claim. Not a serial killer, though.

But with three straight one-flips, I'm pretty sure my role at this point is a red herring anyways. Bleh.

Alice, Jason, out your results plz.

Vote: Jason.

[DarthYoshi]

Also, DY, would you be agreeable to investigate Red tomorrow night?

Yes.

Also, V/LA for the weekend.

I'll be back Sunday evening or Monday.

[DarthYoshi]

I'm back and will post substance when I get home from work.

Quickly, to Alice's point above, my case on DV did indeed rely on a lack of commitment and opportunism, but his balking at being tracked raised a lot of eyebrows as well, IIRC.

[DarthYoshi]

nope, i am at 5.

I caught DV making a kill... I am confirmed as a watcher by Alice.

Voting/Hammering me would be uberscummy.

Also no, no second person will be named. I still believe them to be town power role of some sort, and it is someone who claimed VT. With the amount of claimed town roles, it is better YET ANOTHER ONE is not outted, at least in my eyes.

This is a very test-able claim, for obvious reasons. Between DV and Jason, we have to have at LEAST one scum. So, I'll bite.

Unvote. Vote: DeasVail. This is L-2.

With the caveat that what Alice said is absolutely true--Jason may be watcher, but that doesn't mean he's automatically town. But if he's bussing his buddy, I'll happily take the assist. Besides, if anyone remembers the pre-crash game, I would have gleefully lynched DV then, too.

FTR--I am also thinking that if DV flips scum, he is probably being bussed by someone, but I am not sure yet by who. His wagon formed pretty quickly after not moving AT ALL in the pre-crash thread, despite my increasingly desperate pleas.

[DarthYoshi]

Quickly, to Alice's point above, my case on DV did indeed rely on a lack of commitment and opportunism, but his balking at being tracked raised a lot of eyebrows as well, IIRC.

IIRC you were linking Deas and Kamrun together in your suspicion of Deas. Is this correct?

That is correct, I saw a connection between the two. It involved inconsistency from DV that turned into an out-of-nowhere defense of Kamrun, while Kamrun basically avoided any substantive interaction with DV--which for me is a D1 associative scumtell.

But if

he's bussing his buddy

, I'll happily take the assist. Besides, if anyone remembers the pre-crash game, I would have gleefully lynched DV then, too

Here is my huge problem with the bolded – why as the FBI Agent aren’t you considering that Jason might be selling out the Serial Killer? If you think Jason is a scum watcher that should be the first line of thought for you if your role is what you claim it is.

I already said this--because after three consecutive one-flips, I actually am seriously doubting that there is a serial killer, and am thinking that my role is simply a red herring.

[DarthYoshi]

I admit jason has played a crap game and is on as thin of ice as a player can be but Deasvail is not far behind IMO. And like I said in my post 83 and post 84, if I am going to get it wrong...I'm much more in favor of getting rid of scummy town while CONFIRMING we have scum in jason then I am in possibly mislynching a town watcher. And as I brought up...if we do lynch DV and he flips town. We know jason is scum...we (at least I) can feel more confident with Alice's claim...and we have the option of keeping jason on a leash to help us find the sk that DarthYoshi's claim

and some of the NK flavors would point to existing in this game

. Plus the sk (assuming he actually is out there) would be forced to consider killing jason instead of any of the other claimed PRs or VTs.

I fail to see how opting for a "I thought about fakeclaiming/please don't track me" Deasvail lynch is a bad thing.

More DV votes please.

Emphasis mine. Could you clarify this, please?

The way DV is acting, I am so very, very down for giving him rope. I think Ghostlin is absolutely right that a DV scumflip does not help Jason in the slightest--they could well be in cahoots.

@MOI: I honestly have no idea about normalcy rules for red herring roles. The only game I was in I can recall off the top of my head that had a red herring role was a theme game.

[DarthYoshi]

DY, who did you investigate, and what was the result?

DeasVail, for reasons that should be obvious.

Again, not a serial killer.

Srsly, I really do think my role is a red herring. We'd have had a two-flip by now.

Jason's flip doesn't exonerate DV to me.

As an aside, is anyone else surprised that MOI is still alive? I know it's a weak argument, but really, there are a bare handful of players for whom being alive this long in a game would be any sort of a scumtell, but he's in that bare handful. I mean, for fuck's sake, his title is "...was killed N1."

[DarthYoshi]

It's nothing I can put my finger on right this second, and I'd have to read Alice & jason in iso together, but I could see her actions as very hard bussing.

I'll look into this later. I'd like to see night results first, though.

Damn, I must be an awesome busser for suggesting Jason lynch from D2 and accusing IAI D1.

NS, do you believe I am tracker? If so, it doesn't really make sense that scum has tracker and watcher...

I actually tracked DY, as I was getting a bit nervous over not having 2 kills, and he did indeed visit DV. So he's telling the truth about that. Hmm. I really would have liked to know Kamrun's JK target. It might have even been DV? Either way, there is still a possibility that DV/DY could be scum.

DY, I was not surprised by MOI not being dead, especially when there are a couple PRs that would be easier targets.

So you can confirm I visited DV, and he's still alive (which means me being SK is almost impossible--DV would have had to be protected, because if I were jailed, you would have gotten a different result by tracking me), AND we've already had a maf investigative role flipped. Given those circumstances, how exactly would FBI agent be a fakeclaim coming from scum, be it maf or SK?

@DV: This question goes for you too. If you don't think Alice's result clears me as town, I want to know why.

[DarthYoshi]

Actually, Alice, it DID occur to me that you could be faking Tracker. I do have to go back and read to see if that holds any water at all (which reading won't happen for a couple RL days).

So, uh, I outed Jason and pushed his lynch for funsies, and I tracked Jon/Thor accurately all while faking it? Hmmm. I don't even understand where this idea comes from =_____=

Also, MoI is almost totally scum by dint of still being alive. If there's four mafia, no SK (meaning DY is in fact a RH), then it could be Alice MoI.

I think this reasoning is wrong again! Why NK someone as good as VT when there are PRs to kill?

Also, MOI, weren't you weak doc? You targeted me on N2, which means I'm not scum if you accept MOI-town premise. Who did you target on N1?

Hmm... interesting. I could see a RedFF/DY team right now. I think that for 18 players, 4 scum is fairly likely.

Also, for Jon's sake, my suspicion from DY stems also from a couple prior events
- really, really weak breadcrumb for FBI
- a post that assumed the existence of 4 mafia, which I thought was a slip. In retrospect, it seems to be even more incriminating, given that an FBI agent would have suspected a multiball situation with 3 maf and 1 SK, rather than 4 mafia......

VOTE: DarthYoshi

Oh my G-d. This post is full of all sorts of fail, it is staggering. Yes, Alice is still town, but holy fuck, this post is horrendously thought-out (or just not thought out at all).

Okay. First, your reasoning for MOI being alive is "hey, why kill a VT when you could kill a PR?"

Then, IN THE VERY NEXT PARAGRAPH, YOU SAY, "HEY, MOI, WEREN'T YOU A PR????"

So, let's try again: Why would MOI as an outed PR still be alive on DAY FREAKING FIVE?

Second, you're suspecting me for thinking that four mafia exist. Fine.

IN THIS POST, YOU SAY THAT YOU THINK FOUR MAFIA EXIST.

But more to the point, a 13:4:1 setup with 18 players is actually way more likely, IMO, than 14:3:1--scum are too underpowered in the latter scenario, especially when at least one of them is a goon, and especially since including a second killing anti-town faction generally weakens the mafia in a typical setup. With or without an SK, 4 mafia is kinda obvious.

As for the crumb...I don't know what to tell ya. I got NKed in previous games for making my PR crumbs too obvious, so I went the other direction here.

And if that is why you're voting me, that is a terrible vote, especially coming from you and your result on me. You and DV are having to jump through all sorts of hoops to make me-as-scum work in your warped minds..."He's a rolecop!" "DV was jailed!" How about...DY is actually who he says he is??? DV I think may be blowing smoke because he's scummy, but you...you should be able to do better than this.

Ugh.

[DarthYoshi]

Hey, bro, do you know what MOI claimed? 2-shot doctor who has used his ability twice. He is effectively a VT. Maybe you should have paid closer attention to the thread.

Then please explain this quote from you:

Also, MOI, weren't you weak doc? You targeted me on N2, which means I'm not scum if you accept MOI-town premise.

Onward...

I think it's just 14:4. No SK. You telling the truth about your target means nothing. You know there is a tracker in the game, so there isn't motivation to lie. But your post is strangely angry. Hmm.

So, we agree on the 14:4 setup. I've said repeatedly that I think my role is a red herring, and that 4 scum makes the most sense w/ 18 players regardless of there being an SK or not. So why again is it scummy for me to think this, but not you?

And yes, my tone was hella frustrated. Your result should clear me as town, but instead you're coming up with a hyper-specific hypothetical to push my lynch. Without that hypothetical, I HAVE to be town, regardless of whether you like my crumb or not. YOU ARE PUSHING MY LYNCH BASED ON SOMETHING THAT IS COMPLETE, 100% SPECULATION. So you bet your boots I'm not happy about it.

My thoughts on DY:

I really thought he was scummy pre-crash, and his scumread of me also makes me think he is scum. I don't think he would have it as town, and I really doubt he'd be so consistent with it. He's familiar with my meta and I'd expect him not to be completely wrong about me. He even says "the way DV is acting, I am so very, very down for giving him rope"- This comes after my fakeclaim comment and I think town-DY would consider me more likely town after my response to Jason's claim rather than more likely scum.

He also doesn't consider my arguments

.

Does the bolded make me scummy, or you just sound butthurt?

To your point, you've done things that I can't imagine town-DV doing, from your erratic behavior vis-a-vis Kamrun (who, now that I know they were town, really makes it look like you were trying to white knight them pre-crash) to your "DON'T TRACK ME, BRO!!!" cries. I've simply never seen you do either such thing as town.

Why didn’t you investigate redFF as Ghostlin requested and you agreed to?

This is embarrassing. I forgot about that until you posted that. I investigated DV because of the speculation from you and others about him as an SK candidate and had forgotten that Ghosty wanted to direct my action.

Let’s discuss this. I really want to see you reason this through in public. Please agree or disagree with the following statements –

1. I received significant suspicion Day 1 (and Day 2) due to my decision to hang back (preserving my ability to get both protects off) that I would be viewed as a viable mislynch to scum.
2. That strictly on Power Role claims that were made public during the full-claim (or prior) I was far from a priority target for scum.

Once you’ve addressed those we can happily discuss. Because the “Why is you alive” is an unanswerable question on my end. The only response I could possibly have regardless of my alignment is “because I am not a priority threat to scum at this point”.

Finally one more question for you – did you attack me Day 1 for questioning Jason’s early claim? I believe that is the case but without archives I can’t be certain.

1. Agree, but that wasn't the only reason you received suspicion. It is a true statement, but an incomplete one. Following D2, you have basically ceased to be any kind of a mislynch target.

2. I can't comment definitively. If the "Why are you alive" question is unanswerable on your end, then "Why did the scum target X or Y" is equally unanswerable from my end. If we are going to play that game, though, camn dying N1 should be a finger in your direction because she pushed for your lynch at least as hard as I did, if not harder.

I honestly can't say for certain that I attacked you on D1 regarding Jason's claim. I want that you are correct there, but I'm not 100% positive.

Pedit: I'll agree w/ red. Assuming he isn't today's lynch, I'll actually remember to investigate him tonight.

[DarthYoshi]

Scumreads would be DV and redFF...and DY a stand-by at 3rd if neither of them flip SK

It's impossible, in any universe unless DY's role is not sane, for DV to be a SK. I can explain the logic to you if you like.

Pretty sure sanity is guaranteed for investigative roles in Normal games (notwithstanding roles like Godfather that return false negatives).

Also, Ghosty's #178 is actually sensible, on second thought.

I'll have more later.

[DarthYoshi]

Alice: Thanks for pointing out Fitz's ridiculous (which I'm having a hard time seeing as anything but scummy right now), but why haven't you answered my question?

DY is really scummy, but I don't know what to do with him.

Top scumreads: Fitz and DY I guess.

I agree with Ghostlin about MoI and RedFF, but I am thinking it not so unlikely that both are town.

MoI's interactions with me anyway are not any different from what I'd expect from him as town and his play is the same. However, there's nothing about him that screams town to me. The most scummy thing is his claimed role. A two-shot doc seems like a strange role to have in this set-up considering no other X-shots and generally quite alternative roles. How early/late in the claiming order did MoI claim? One thing possibly in his favour and not in RedFF's if MoI claimed early is that the 2-shot doc claim is more risky than the bodyguard claim.

After looking at things, I'm seeing RedFF as probable town because he claimed to have been protecting muffin after Alice claimed not to have tracked him and without knowing that Kamrun jailkept him (unless Jason watched him and managed to communicate it). I don't see why RedFF would have claimed this as scum, and think it more likely he's town.

What I really want to know is what others think of my thoughts.

Bolded emphasis mine. This doesn't make sense. If one of MOI/RedFF are scum, then are you saying that both Fitz and I are also scum and that one of us is the SK, otherwise one of us is town.

Between MOI and redFF, I'd rather lynch MOI. If we're going to try Ghostlin's hypothesis (again, I think he makes a reasonable point with it), then:

Vote: MOI.

Darth – I recall you mentioning the possibility of there being 4 scum…but I assumed you were referring to mafia and not including the potential SK your role would suggest. Did you ever voice the opinion that we were in a 14:4 set up and can you provide where you have mentioned repeatedly that your role is a red herring (at least prior to me bringing it up earlier today). I’ll ISO you after I make this post to check your post–crash commentary but I can’t recall you saying you thought your role was a red herring (i.e. essentially useless).

No, in D1 I do not recall explicitly hypothesizing a 14:4 setup. I simply assumed there was likely to be 4 scum regardless of whether there is an SK or not. Now that we have four straight one-flips, I think it is more likely that we are in a 14:4 setup than a 13:4:1. IIRC, I mentioned on D4 (pre-crash) that I thought my role might be a red herring due to three one-flips, but I'm not 100% positive that I did. I do know that I have been very explicit about that belief post-crash.

-------------
Yeah, snake's vote is bad, but I have to think that if he were scum, he'd try at least a little harder with dressing up the bandwagon vote. It actually feels more like apathetic town than scum to me, tbh.
-------------

Top two scumreads:
MOI
DV

I would be ok with a red lynch, but I think out of the claimed PRs, MOI is a better lynch.
-------------

This quote is an example why the bolded above doesn’t sit well with me at all. Your entire line of suspicion today is basically 100% speculation –

1. Why is MoI alive look at his title.
2. Camn’s death points 100% to you.

Camn’s death points to that she was perceived as a threat by her killers. Your argument here dismissed any other players who were on her radar (which we unfortunately can’t really review, funny how that works huh) or the fact that muffin himself was a much bigger pusher of MoI than camn was Day 1. But certainly dismiss those elements in crafting your suspicion.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too chief. You don’t get to ascribe Nightkill WIFOM logic in a way that damns me re: camn and then turn around and dismiss the fact that me being alive doesn’t make sense (in that active power-roles are bigger targets).

As to #1: You're being reductive. There's a reason why you have that particular title. FTR, the ONLY other time I've ever used the "they're still alive" argument as a scumtell was on Vi in a mini normal some time ago, and I was right.

As to #2: Muffin may have pushed more, but I recall camn being more persuasive at building that wagon than either me or muffin.

This isn't me having my cake and eating it too. I said I couldn't speak to it, and that IF--IF you wanted to play the NK motivation WIFOM game, it doesn't look good for you.

So you are saying that you just completely forgot that you agreed to a redFF scan (the only player, at that stage given the claims we have, that made any sense as a Serial Killer) and got distracted by end of Day talk?

There’s a level of, for lack of a better word, inherent incompetence in this explanation I am not sure I buy. I know you aren’t incompetent.

You're right, it was an egregious mistake for a player with my experience. It was incompetent. It was completely out of character for me.

That doesn't mean I'm scum.

DarthYoshi’s

MOI's role sticks out like a sore thumb at this point given we already have

two

one confirmed Town

information

protective roles

plus one claimed protective role

.

FTFY.

More to the point, though, why did you put your vote on Snake instead of red? If Ghosty is right, then to TownYou, red should be obvscum.

The more I think about it, the more I think Ghosty is right and that one of MOI or red needs to be today's lynch (even though I also see DV as scummy).

[DarthYoshi]

Something is very off with his claim.
- weak bread crumb
- seemingly prior knowledge of setup that contradicts his professed claim
- no hint of two NKs over 4 nights
- passing off his role as a potential red herring before he has even investigated good SK suspects

I think it is highly likely that DY is scum, and at this moment, he is the only acceptable lynch target for me today. We delayed Jason's lynch for days. I will not have another obvscum slip through the cracks again.

Sigh.

Pray tell, what about ANY of my targets have been bad SK suspects? Here they are again, in full:
N1: Fitz. I investigated him because of his reticence and his brevity--seemed like he was trying to coast through the day.
N2: NS. I investigated him because his immediate reaction to my L-3 claim was to put me at L-2.
N3: Thor/Jon. I investigated him because Thor had hinted at an SK's existence in earlier posts (saying things along the lines of "SK, if you want towncred, off this person."
N4: DV. Granted, I fucked up by forgetting my agreement with Ghostlin, but that doesn't make DV a BAD candidate--MOI (among others) was OPENLY speculating about DV being the SK. It was a mistake for me to not to investigate Red, but that doesn't inherently make DV a bad suspect.

All your other points are hackneyed re-statements of previous suspicions, and I seriously am so over them. When I flip town, you'll see how seriously you fucked up playing your role today.

PS: Fitz is right--people, remember what DV's claimed role his--he's claimed VT. What SK or scum role, aside from goon (or another killing role like hitman) would visit a claimed VT? DV, MOI--you guys have been openly speculating on what maf PR I could be. Which of those makes sense, except goon? The only way me as scum works is if Kamrun jailed DV last night, something that there is zero indication that they did. Use your heads.

[DarthYoshi]

/prod dodge. Sorry I dropped off the earth the last couple of days--RL got in the way. I'll catch up and have content later today.

[DarthYoshi]

All your other points are hackneyed re-statements of previous suspicions, and I seriously am so over them. When I flip town, you'll see how seriously you fucked up playing your role today.

PS: Fitz is right--people, remember what DV's claimed role his--he's claimed VT. What SK or scum role, aside from goon (or another killing role like hitman) would visit a claimed VT? DV, MOI--you guys have been openly speculating on what maf PR I could be. Which of those makes sense, except goon? The only way me as scum works is if Kamrun jailed DV last night, something that there is zero indication that they did. Use your heads.

1. How quaint an Appeal to Emotion - "when I flip Town you'll be sorry!"
2. This argument that you could only be a Goon and thus your role if proven is pretty farsical.

Fact 1 - Deas has been obliquely hinting that he might be a hidden power-role. Enough so that it might make sense as a Scum Roleblocker / Rolecop / Modified Framer (to frame him to Alice's track) for you to target him.

Fact 2 - Kamrun didn't hint anywhere (including per Ghostlin the Neighborhood QT they were in) as to what he was doing with their Jail. Dismissing Deas as a possible Jail target while simultaneously saying "There was lots of speculation about him being a Serial Killer" doesn't synch.

As to you being 'over' the discussion of what was perceived as slips on your Part Day 2 that doesn't mean everyone else who is scum hunting are. You've yet to explain why you assume a 4 person scum team still with your role being a 'Red Herring'. 5 scum is just as viable as 4 yet you haven't shown any indication that you have even considered it.

Yes, it is an AtE. I'm frustrated with how badly Alice is misinterpreting her results. It isn't that she is still wary I am scum, she is simply no longer capable of thinking that I am town, and I think for poor reasons. So, yes, it is AtE.

And no, it isn't farsical. I'm not dismissing DV as a jail target--of course he might have been jailed--but that it is still required for you to believe that Kamrun jailed him in order for me to be scum, and, as you said, Karmun didn't hint anywhere as to who they'd jail. So, again, for me to be scum, you have to buy into a completely unsubstantiated hypothetical.

that NS contradiction bandwagon hop is actually too much, vote:ns

Why did you need to think about it? You had already noticed it, why not vote NS right then?

Deas is by far a less likely scum-bag than either redFF or DarthYoshi. I thought I made that clear - the manner in which he was made the alternate wagon to Jason yesterday means he's pretty much unlikely to Mafia.

I don't actually think it is clear at all. The way DV behaved on D1 vis-a-vis Jason read as purposely noncommittal so that he could bus him if he needed to, but didn't want to seem connected to him at all--I remember this distinctly because that was part of my original case on DV. So once the writing on the wall became clear, it would be easier to bus. Do you think that Jason WASN'T bussed?

@jon: Can you rank your suspicions of DV, NS, and me?

redFF, you do realize that NS is probably not the lynch for today?

Why are you encouraging a compromise wagon when deadline is still nearly two weeks away?

Given recent evidence, I just feel that Darth is our lynch for today.

What "recent evidence" is this? The only *new* argument that Alice is making is that my investigation targets sucked, but I refuted it and she didn't bother to argue the point, and MOI and (especially) DV at this point are basically piggybacking off of Alice.

[DarthYoshi]

My case on you doesn't require DV to have been jailed. My case on you revolves around the fact that you hinted at knowing how many people were on the scum team, which no town should have known. And this knowledge is in direct contradiction with your claim.

Your case doesn't require that DV be jailed but me being scum does. Although MOI gets around that by suggesting that I'm, say, a rolecop (even though with a maf investigative role already flipped, and a powerful role at that, it would seem unlikely).

I'm not saying your case requires DV to have been jailed. I'm saying that my alignment almost assuredly does, and that you're ignoring that crucial piece of evidence. Even if you think I'm scum based on my "knowing" how many maf there are, when contradicting evidence arises, you need to be able to recognize it accordingly.

[DarthYoshi]

Mafia roleblock is a possibility.

DY, you still have failed to address the contradictions in your claim. Why did you say that the scumteam had 4 people as an FBI agent?

BECAUSE NO OTHER POSSIBILITY MADE SENSE WITH AN SK.

12:5:1 is very scum-sided.

14:3:1 is very town-sided.

13:2:2:1 is a town-sided clusterfuck.

Barring some extraordinary PRs, none of those setups would likely have gotten approved for balance.

Oy.

[DarthYoshi]

PS: So, basically, I'm a maf RB or I'm town? Doesn't one seem a little more likely than the other? I mean, when you're having to resort to blindly guessing IN A CLOSED SETUP someone's PR in order for them to be scum, shouldn't that tell you that you're grasping for straws?

[DarthYoshi]

What does that even mean?

Hey, NS, how 'bout you answer my question, pleeze?

However, it seems that you genuinely did not define SK as scumteam. O__O

Well...yeah. An SK is NOT on the same "team" as the scum/mafia, ergo while an SK is, like the maf, anti-town, s/he is NOT part of the "scumteam." An SK is not on the same side as the maf.

Good grief.

[DarthYoshi]

Recent evidence being that stuff that Alice said.

And, you know, the high probability that you're actually the SK and faked the role to throw us off.

My vote stays.

You mean the stuff that Alice said and I refuted? Or the fact that she has since backed off and unvoted?

And yeah--def a high probability that I am the SK with 4 straight one-flips.

Sigh.

[DarthYoshi]

And I have my doubts about the viability of a 4 personal Mafia team without a Serial Killer set-up wise anyway. 4 / 18 is below the general 25% threshold that balance generally indicates. It's possible if the scum team is a bit power-heavy given the flips we have seen from Town (in which case a Roleblocker for scum is pretty much required for balance reasons).

None of this matters. In a 13-player mini, the standard 3-person scumteam is below the 25% threshold too.

Plus, if anything, a SK would actually weaken the mafia because it opens up the possibility of crosskills.

I feel like you should know better...and that you probably do. While I'm fine lynching red or DV (NS I'm a little less sure about, his flip-flop on me is too careless to come from him--I've gotten a decent look at his scumgame in a couple of games, and scumHim is usually more deliberate, whereas I've seen townNS be careless), this post reminded me that my vote is still where it should be.

[DarthYoshi]

Also, V/LA Thursday through Sunday.

That be Maundy Thursday, Good Friday, and Easter Sunday. Super busy time in my line of work.

[DarthYoshi]

DY, havingfitz, Snake's slot, Jon

Can you all please change your votes?

Who on earth asks this of someone they claim is scum? This isn't:

"DY's MOI vote is scummy," it's,

"Hey, DY, please change your vote."

Doesn't one sound like something you'd say to town much more often than scum?

-----

(FTR, I'll vote redFF, but MOI is still scummier and we're still over a week to deadline. If nothing shifts in a few days, I'll switch from MOI to red.)

None of this matter? No, not at all. It goes to the heart of your crediblity. Your sole basis for your Day 2 posts where you kept saying "It's 4 scum" was your 'knowledge' that there was a Serial Killer. Now that you have gone to the "Oops, my role is a Red Herring" well I would think Town would have discarded the absolute stance of "Only 4 scum" to consider other possibilities. But nope - you haven't. I'm back to my point from Day 2 ... you inadvertantly gave out your inside knowledge about the scum-team size.

So 3-13 is under the 25% barrier. True. As you SHOULD know smaller games (aka Minis) are shorter given the lesser number of players and thus there is less room for error. In Large game (like this) the days tend to last much longer so scum strength needs to be adjusted as such.

For you to suggest I'm scum for 'knowing better' when you are using an Apples to Oranges comparision is totes funny. It's flailing and it's hilarious.

That first part is overly reductive and a misrep and you know it. I dare you to find ANY time I take the "absolute" stance of there being only 4 scum ever since I began saying my role was a red herring (basically, at the start of this new, post-crash thread). I say in my #146 that it is way more likely than a 14:3:1 setup, and I agree with Alice in my #157 that 14:4 is the most likely setup. Neither stances could remotely be construed as absolute.

What evidence is there that large games have "much" longer days than 13-player minis? I think you're just making this up.

If I really were flailing scum, you'd be voting me right now because Snake is getting replaced, nobody else is voting him, and I'm one of only three viable wagons right now. Get real.

[DarthYoshi]

I'm back from V/LA and am beginning to catch up. Content to come tonight or tomorrow morning.

[DarthYoshi]

Okay. First things first.

Unvote. Vote: redFF.

I promised I would after going on V/LA, and nobody else seems interested in lynching MOI.

BUT--it worries me that the red wagon has essentially disintegrated when between him and MOI, we are very likely to have AT LEAST one scum.

MOREOVER, I am worried that it seems to have disintegrated, at least in part, for an NS wagon.

Look.

NS's play right now is craptastic. He's actually guessing that I'm a maf watcher when that role has already flipped.

Thing is--that sort of carelessness actually is, for me at least, a MASSIVE towntell for NS.

I've had two games with TownNS (quadz's large normal and Pine's mini normal, sadly the latter has been lost to the tiger crash) and two games with ScumNS (amrun's happy sunshine hospital and CDB's West Wing Mafia). In both town games, NS's play was poor, careless, or both, and extremely so (I remember him even apologizing after quadz's game for how poorly he played). In both scum games, his play was FAR more meticulous and thought out, and at least in Amrun's game, he had me BADLY fooled.

I realize that I am basing this townread on nothing more than meta right now, but his play over the last few pages makes me think that lynching him is 100% NOT the play today.

So I'll vote Tammy at deadline to avoid a no lynch (can someone please explain the wagon on her to me? She's spewed all over this thread, but I'm having a hard time distilling this scumminess seen in her down to an actual case. Not saying she isn't scummy (like I am w/ NS), but that I just am not seeing it right now. I kinda get why Magua thinks she's the SK, but as for everyone else...??? So, help, please) but I continue to maintain that Ghostlin's original proposal of MOI or red is still optimal.

Er... Tammy seems like town to me.

Except I'm not sure at all.

It's like you're begging us to lynch you.

Also, what, pray tell, was the point of your #421?

As explained to death prior to this, Snake was away for, like, ever, and there's never been more than one kill per night.

Ipso facto, you're it.

Absence in the daythread doesn't prove by itself absence from night play. Strategic lurking is strategic lurking is strategic lurking.

Can you also explain, in just a few sentences, why exactly you don't believe my claim at this point in time, especially if you're suggesting (as I think you are here) that tammy is the SK? (PREFERABLY IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T MAKE ME AN ALREADY FLIPPED ROLE)

@Tammy: I listed my investigation targets some time ago--ISO me to find 'em. Fitz, NS, Thor/Jon, and DV. All not serial killers.

Fitz's play is interesting. He's definitely stepped up his focus and attention to detail, but a lot more of his play seems to be focused on setup speculation, which I'm not sure is *actually* all that helpful. I mean, if there's a two-flip, there's a two-flip, and we can deal with it then. For the moment, why don't we simply focus on lynching scum?

[DarthYoshi]

BUT--it worries me that the red wagon has essentially disintegrated when between him and MOI, we are very likely to have AT LEAST one scum.

So I'll vote Tammy at deadline to avoid a no lynch (can someone please explain the wagon on her to me? She's spewed all over this thread, but I'm having a hard time distilling this scumminess seen in her down to an actual case. Not saying she isn't scummy (like I am w/ NS), but that I just am not seeing it right now. I kinda get why Magua thinks she's the SK, but as for everyone else...??? So, help, please) but I continue to maintain that Ghostlin's original proposal of MOI or red is still optimal.

@Tammy: I listed my investigation targets some time ago--ISO me to find 'em. Fitz, NS, Thor/Jon, and DV. All not serial killers.

Thanks. I found most of it when I reread the first part of the thread yesterday. I think the only one I was missing was HF.

Do you remember what the reasons for Ghostlin proposing MoI were? If they're in this thread, I'll find it as I'm making my way through the thread again, but I don't remember it from my first read.

What you are reasons for suspecting MoI that are independent of his still being alive?

Ghostlin basically suggested that three protective roles (one confirmed JK, a claimed two-shot doc, and a claimed bodyguard) are highly unlikely in a 18-player setup, and that either MOI or red was likely fakeclaiming. You can ISO him to find what he said verbatim.

I've basically suspected MOI all game. His D1 play was lurkertastic and felt much more like scum trying to pretend to scumhunt than actually being useful.

Ok.

No. We're not lynching redFF. I'm 95% sure that in the pool of (redFF, MagnaofIllusion), and I'm 85% sure that the scum in that pool is redFF. But, killing redFF means Alice dies tonight. Letting redFF live means Alice lives, *or* redFF gets lynched.

So...you're pretty damn sure that red is scum and you DON'T want to lynch him because that means we lose a PR? Shouldn't the town almost ALWAYS be willing to trade a PR for a scum?

I've got a better idea: we lynch red today and I investigate MOI tonight, then you get to know if both players are SK as opposed to just one.

Also, plz 'splain your townread on DV.

[DarthYoshi]

I've got a better idea: we lynch red today and I investigate MOI tonight, then you get to know if both players are SK as opposed to just one.

I believe, with every single core of my body, that redFF is not the SK. If he's scum, he's mafia.

Why do I believe this? Because redFF is not living until endgame. His claim has guaranteed that he is not living until endgame. Why would an SK...even someone like redFF...make a claim that would guarantee that they lose? As scum, claiming bodyguard makes sense if the alternative is to be lynched. Hell, it's even great in multiscum because why would another scumteam/SK shoot you? But eventually you're going to die.

Good mafia claim. Bad SK claim.

Not lynching redFF.

Seriously, Yoshi. These are the basics. If he is town, it's obviously better to leave him alive. If he is mafia, he either has to *not kill Alice*, which is good, or, worst case, he kills Alice anyways and gets lynched tomorrow...in which case we lost nothing compared to lynching him today (in both cases both he and someone else get lynched, just with a different order). Absolute worst case scenario is that he is, in fact, the SK, and oh shit, he kills someone so there's two deaths tonight, in which case not only is it bloody obvious there's an SK, but we still don't lose a lynch because we're currently operating on an even number of people.

Really, if you think redFF is SK, I'm already not listening to you, and if you think he's Mafia, I want you to tell me who you think his partner is.

Also, plz 'splain your townread on DV.

He's not SK because you say he's not, and I don't think he's Mafia because of his interactions with Jason.

So at what point do we cross that bridge re: lynching redFF? We're at an even number, and unless there is a two-flip on the horizon, that means we have a potential MyLo scenario. If we mislynch today, that means tomorrow is likely the day before MyLo, and at that point, I think we pretty much have to policy lynch redFF. Are you saying that Alice's result for tonight is worth keeping scum alive?

Re: DV--funny, I think he's mafia in part because of his interactions with Jason. So...again, plz 'splain.

------
MOI's vote of me is incredibly anti-town. At the time of his vote, he moved from the leading wagon (Tammy) to a person with only ONE other vote (me) when the deadline was only three days away. It looks like an effort to divide the town than any genuine attempt to catch scum.

In any case, the unofficial tally means that there are only two votes left on Tammy--Magua's and Alice's, and the leading wagon (NS) has only three votes on it. Deadline is in a little over 48 hours from this post.

I will ONLY vote NS to avoid a no-lynch. I'll vote Tammy if no other viable counterwagon on MOI develops in the next day or two. And if we don't lynch scum today, red is absolutely, without a doubt, tomorrow's lynch.

Unvote. Vote: MOI.

[DarthYoshi]

MOI's vote of me is incredibly anti-town. At the time of his vote, he moved from the leading wagon (Tammy) to a person with only ONE other vote (me) when the deadline was only three days away. It looks like an effort to divide the town than any genuine attempt to catch scum.

Oh so you mean the vote move to one of my Top scum suspects. Made right after Magua did the same thing - voting for a top suspect after Tammy's Serial Killer status was cleared up by the Mod.

But one peep here about Magua making an Anti-Town vote? Nope, not a peep. Cognitive Dissonance in full effect!

My vote is well placed.

Darth is scum.

--

@Alice

- As you can see his reasoning is pretty damn terrible.

--

Quite funny (and by that I means scummy) that suddenly in the course of a few hours a wagon on me has sprung up out of the blue so close to deadline with craptacular reasons supporting in.

Magua indicated a willingness when he switched votes to join a different wagon to avoid a no-lynch. He gave reasons for his vote. You did neither.

That last bit from you also just reads like flailing scum. How is the quickness of your wagon scummy, exactly, from YOUR perspective? I've suspected you all game, I don't think your vote has ever been on NS (certainly not post-crash), and you've treated Alice as obvtown.

[DarthYoshi]

One day from deadline, and literally the ONLY two wagons are...me...and the player I just said I didn't want lynched today. Blerg.

Unvote. Vote: NS. This is L-1.

I would say nobody should hammer without giving NS the chance to post final thoughts, but he clearly can't tell up from down in this game anymore, so whatever.

Unrelated, Fitz blatantly admitting he wants to get rid of the SK sooner rather than later is scummy. Of course scum want the SK out of the way, the potential for crosskills lowers the chances of any individual scum faction winning the game. Obviously, he's not today's lynch, but still,

FOS Fitz.

Yes, your assumption that I would not move my vote to avoid a No-lynch is both invalid and pointless in the course of directing why I am 'scum'. You made a incorrect assumption that benefited your stance and ran with it.

Dude, listen to what you're saying--I should assume that you would do something pro-town when I think you're scum and when you didn't actually say you would do said thing? You're asking me to be psychic here.

As to flailing scum - a typical rhetoric attack. I can point to you any number of flash wagons on Town that appeared right at deadline driven by scum. Your attempt to paint that observation as scummy is noted.

But for the record - if I was scum 'worried and flailing' I would have hopped on the next closest viable wagon. I'm not because I'm voting my top suspect and actually scum-hunting.

Or you could have done it to divide the town so close to deadline, which, based on the most recent VC, seemed to work like a charm.

[DarthYoshi]

I'm feeling less good about voting for NS after his recent posts. I'm beginning to think that what I thought was a tone that was too afraid to go against public opinion because he was scum, might be personality based and therefore not alignment indicative.

There's something about Jon's placating tone that sets me a little on edge too.

unvote: NS
vote: Jon

Fine.

Unvote. Vote: Jon.

3 votes down, 3 to go.

[DarthYoshi]

Also checking in to see the deadline was extended.

I wonder who DY's going to vote...

You.

Unvote. Vote: DeasVail. This is L-2.

You're a stronger scumread than Jon, and two of my strongest townreads (Alice and NS) are on your wagon.

(Note: If I followed the VC correctly, whichever wagon I was on--Jon or DV--would be at L-2 with my vote.)

This seems very hypocritical to call me out for wanting to vote someone I suspect more than anyone else...then against your ~will [hypocrisy]you vote someone you don't want to vote![/hypocrisy] WTF?

If there aren't two kills tonight you'll make a big jump up my suspect list.

Unbelievable. And while hitting either the ~SK or mafia would be nice today, which I state in one of my recent posts BTW...if I had my choice I'd rather hit the SK and avoid 2 kills tonight. And IMO redFF could be either scum OR SK but based on the two single NKs when he was most likely blocked....everything points to him as a SK. Scummy either way, but my frontrunner for SK. Some nerve you have calling me out when I'm standing by my convictions while you are hopping all over the place and voting people you do not want to. Cry me a river. Unbelievable. FOS back atcha DY

This is an awfully strong reaction to a FOS, and the bolded in particular as a veiled threat is just goofy--why not two kills on ANY OTHER OF THE PREVIOUS FOUR NIGHTS?

Srsly, am beginning to think I may have struck paydirt with this FOS. Fitz becomes my #4 suspect, after MOI, DV, and red.

On that note...and a Pre-view edit...I see MOI protected Alice N2. I think this lends credence to his [MOI's] doc claim as I could very well see an SK targeting the tracker.

And not, say, the SK targeting the FBI agent? How does this lend credence to MOI's claim again?

So your premise this late in the game with scum 2 members down that it’s scummy to want to eliminate as potential second kill (which we still aren’t sure about) and shows scum intent? If we do have a Serial Killer the Mafia and SK aren’t going to be looking to cross-kill. They’ll be eliminating confirmed Town PRs. So eliminating them at this stage minimizes the possible Nightkills and keeps as many confirmed Town alive for as long as possible. This statement doesn’t compute.

My premise is that either:
(a) There is no SK, and it is scummy because it is leading town on a wild goose chase, or
(b) There is an SK, and it is scummy because the SK would be 1 player in 10, rather than *scum*, which would (presumably) be 3 players in 10, unnecessarily limiting our options for lynching a not-town player.

And what confirmed town PRs are left? Just Alice. Yours and red's roles are not confirmed. So...yeah, I think that if there is an SK, crosskills are a possibility between now and LyLo.

No, I’m not asking you to by Psychic. You are trying to assert scum intent by suggesting that I would not do something because I didn’t EXPLICITLY say I would. I didn’t explicitly say I wouldn’t either. I'm not some Mafia newb ... I understand that No Lynching isn't positive in the game-state we have. So you are simply mudslinging with that attack

LOL, mudslinging? What is this, a political campaign?

I think that strategic lurking could be a possibility. With a town in disarray this close to the deadline, I know as scum I would be happy to watch them lynch themselves into oblivion. And since I think you're scum, I can see you doing exactly that unless you promise that you won't. This isn't court, you aren't innocent until proven guilty in mafia.

Remind me again – what was your Thor and jon read before deadline came calling?

Null-leaning-scum--hence why I investigated Thor earlier in the game. I think I was pretty clear that I wanted to vote almost anyone other than NS, and when that opportunity presented itself, I took it. And now that a wagon is on someone who I think is scummier (DV), I took that, too.

[DarthYoshi]

@Fitz: It was pretty obvious that my putting NS at L-2 was simply to avoid a no-lynch--the ONLY other player at the time with more than one vote on them was me, and that was also before the minor extension we were given by zach.

PS: I so did not mislead the votecount. Good job not saying a word about Tammy posting a CORRECT unofficial VC.

BTW--redFF has been posting all over the site, but has not posted in this game in three days--which just so happened to be the last three before deadline, and his vote is currently parked uselessly on NS. This looks 100% like strategic lurking to me. If he's not dead tonight, I will incessantly demand his lynch tomorrow.

[DarthYoshi]

I KNEW MOI WAS SCUM.

I KNEW IT I KNEW IT I KNEW I KNEW IT.

A clutch LyLo vote, Tammy, very nice.

GG, fellow townies. I apologize for my brain fart of investigating DV instead of red, which would have caught the SK.

Nice job modding, Zach. Thanks for all your patience especially post-crash.