Mafia 104 - Revenge of the Crimson King - Game!

[Tarhalindur]

First.

Wait, BOTH of those two are here...

Vote: Riceballtail
FoS: Snow_Bunny

You guys know why.

[Tarhalindur]

Man, you guys take the RVS way further than anything I've seen before.

... And there's the first slip of the game.

Unvote: Riceballtail, Vote: Cyberbob

[Tarhalindur]

It's pretty obvious what Tar is referring to. People are RVSing it up, and usually the person that tries to show themselves as serious and waiting for RVS to be up is very likely to be scum.

Ahahahahahahahno. Trying to get people out of the RVS is protown, especially given the rather short deadline in this specific game. Nice try though!

I fail to see how this post constitutes "trying to get people out of the random stage":

Man, you guys take the RVS way further than anything I've seen before.

I don't see a vote, I don't see any questions designed to force responses - frankly, all I see is a completely useless post that looks like it's saying something relevant but isn't. Hell, it's not even a (pointless) random stage joke!

In other words, I see the post version of IIoA... and that's something I'm perfectly willing to vote for during random stage.

[Tarhalindur]

@wicked: yes! wait I mean no...oh god I always get these questions wrong

Man, you guys take the RVS way further than anything I've seen before.

... And there's the first slip of the game.

Unvote: Riceballtail, Vote: Cyberbob

Tar, I have a lot of respect for you and imma let you finish, but can you explain what you are talking about here?

I think this is the scummiest post here. It's pretty obvious what Tar is referring to. People are RVSing it up, and usually the person that tries to show themselves as serious and waiting for RVS to be up is very likely to be scum.

I think its silly to ask Tar to clarify, and shows a subtle connection between you and Cyberbob.

Vote: RayFrost

There's a difference between doing a protown move to get us out of the RVS and commenting on how the RVS sucks and not contributing. Cyber distinctly did the

former

.

RayFrost's overdefensiveness is noted, and his defense of "this is my style, get over it" is not good town play. We're the judge of his play. If you are aware of your actions, why are you intentionally doing something scummy? Speaks of scum trying to get away with being scummy.

And yes, it was obvious what Tar was doing, and RayFrost's defense of Cyber is noted as a subtle connection

Intuition says you're either an alt or newbscum. Possibly both.

Unvote, Vote: swimmer4lyfe

[Tarhalindur]

1)

I am moderately V/LA until Tuesday due to multiple upcoming tests. I should be able to post, but I cannot guarantee frequent posting.

2) For those of you asking for my reason for voting swimmer: I stated that reason in my original post. My intuitive response to the quoted posts was that they did not come from an inexperienced townie. Usually I'd back this up with meta evidence from completed swimmer4lyfe games, but this is not possible given that swimmer has no completed games at all.

The closest I can figure out to *why* that was my response to the quoted swimmer posts was because swimmer, an apparently raw newbie, was justifying his/her RayFrost vote by referencing Mafia theory concepts:

@wicked: yes! wait I mean no...oh god I always get these questions wrong

Man, you guys take the RVS way further than anything I've seen before.

... And there's the first slip of the game.

Unvote: Riceballtail, Vote: Cyberbob

Tar, I have a lot of respect for you and imma let you finish, but can you explain what you are talking about here?

I think this is the scummiest post here. It's pretty obvious what Tar is referring to.

People are RVSing it up, and usually the person that tries to show themselves as serious and waiting for RVS to be up is very likely to be scum.

I think its silly to ask Tar to clarify, and shows a subtle connection between you and Cyberbob.

Vote: RayFrost

There's a difference between doing a protown move to get us out of the RVS and commenting on how the RVS sucks and not contributing. Cyber distinctly did the

former

.

RayFrost's overdefensiveness is noted

, and his defense of "this is my style, get over it" is not good town play.

We're the judge of his play. If you are aware of your actions, why are you intentionally doing something scummy?

Speaks of scum trying to get away with being scummy.

And yes, it was obvious what Tar was doing, and RayFrost's defense of Cyber is noted as a subtle connection

The three underlined sentences don't really make sense to me coming from a relatively raw newbie.

Moreover, the first underlined sentence reads IIoA (again, intuitive response), the overdefensiveness argument is craplogic (no such thing, and defense is a null tell), and the third sentence... why is it coming out of a newbie, again?

That said, there is one big, fairly universal tell in these two posts that I didn't actually notice the first time around:

@wicked: yes! wait I mean no...oh god I always get these questions wrong

For reference, the question:

swimmer4lyfe - Are you scum?

Joking is a general scumtell. Joking about being scum doubly so.

Now, as for Swimmer's more recent posts:

Rehashing what you said before doesn't make it any more valid.

Since your defense was basically going more indepth to what you did, my "rehashing" is just going into more depth of what I did. An explanation.

RayFrost's overdefensiveness is noted, and his defense of "this is my style, get over it" is not good town play. We're the judge of his play. If you are aware of your actions, why are you intentionally doing something scummy? Speaks of scum trying to get away with being scummy.

Swimmer, I have a scenario for you which I would like you to respond to.

Suppose Player X is protown.
Suppose Player Y attacks Player X. Player Y's alignment in this case is irrelevant.

Is it scummy for a Player X to try to prevent other players from suspecting him by responding to Player Y's attack?

No, it's not scummy to defend yourself. It is scummy to say "this is how I roll, just deal with it" when that "way that he rolls" is scummy.

Intuition says you're either an alt or newbscum. Possibly both.

Unvote, Vote: swimmer4lyfe

Wow, that's an interesting observation. Either I'm veteran town, veteran scum, or newb scum. I very keenly observe that you are able to discern this is worth a vote.

What makes you think cyber is scum instead of lazy town? Also, what do you think of monkeyman?

It's like this: Everyone knows there is a RVS stage, and then someone says something stupid or whatever and everyone goes crazy and that person is in the spotlight.

Cyber's comment looks like someone who is aware of the spotlight and doesn't want to be in it, but also wants to appear concerned about getting on with the game without getting involved. I find this scummy because why would a townie care about the spotlight? Townies worry about one thing, scum hunting. This commenting on the RVS without participating in the RVS is a way I have found the scum to act so they do not get involved in any of the spotlight but appear to be contributing.

It's definitely a scummy move.

I agree with monkeyman about the overdefensive aspects of Ray's defense. I have also pointed out the parts of Ray's defense that are not town play. I have not paid attention to monkeyman outside of his overdefensive comment though.

On "we are the judge of your play": swimmer, I would like to know where you were first introduced to this line of reasoning. (It reminds me of lines I used to use as a newb, before I concluded that there were few, if any, universal scumtells, but IIRC it took longer for me to start using them.) The reason I called you either an alt or newbscum is because I have difficulty seeing these lines come from a player with NO completed games and only two uncompleted ones.

I'll withhold my response to your attack on Cyberbob for the time being - there's a Cyberbob meta tell I want to follow up on before I reveal what it is.

Not paying attention to MonkeyMan: Why not?

Also just want to make an additional comment. With as much attention and flak I'm getting for pointing out something I have found scummy, I'm pretty sure I hit gold. I doubt I'll be changing my vote for awhile.

Don't like this post... especially not the "happy with my vote" part at the end.

overdefensiveness is a scum tell only when you can tell the difference between it and defending yourself

your "Scum tell" on me is asking Tar for clarification because I didn't understand.

That's why it is a crap case.

I know the difference between overdefensiveness and defending oneself. Yours felt over the top.

My "scum tell" is Cyber's attempt to stay out of the spotlight, which I've already explained. Your subtle defense of him is noted, and I don't believe you when you say you don't understand. I found it to be obvious.

Tar has also stated pretty much exactly what I have said in that regards...why no suspicion on him?

- What is this "personal scumtell", exactly, and how is it applicable to both myself and Ray? I mean inductive logic is terrible at the best of times, but you're taking it one step further here.
- The reasons for your case being bad have already been covered. I don't feel like repeating what other people have said on the very same page.

How am I putting words in your mouth?

I've already explained what the personal scumtell is. Maybe you should read the thread.

This is putting words into my mouth:

You've got a serious self-fulfilling prophecy going on here, my friend. I'd bet a lot of money that if you'd been ignored you'd be going on about "omg scum coverup I'M ONTO SOMETHING HERE" instead

Why the unwillingness to consider the possibility that you might be wrong? Why the hostility towards another player raising that possibility?

Does anyone else think this bandwagoning on me is scummy at WORST?

Three people have voted me with little to no reasoning and/or horrible reasoning. In fact I think I'm close to lynch.

I have used logic and reasoning to defend my actions and I get voted for it? Do you seriously think this is good townie action?

And just when I think that you're showing too much knowledge of Mafia theory to be inexperienced... you drop a classic newb tell.

Moreover, you already showed knowledge of the obvious newb counterargument ("we'll be the judge of whether you've used good logic and reasoning to defend yourself") in your attack on RayFrost. Hypocrisy much? (Hypocrisy is another of the few general tells, especially coming from a player with no real meta to look at.)

No, it's not scummy to defend yourself. It is scummy to say "this is how I roll, just deal with it" when that "way that he rolls" is scummy.

That doesn't make any sense. "The way that he rolls" is to defend himself when attacked. You just called that both not-scummy and scummy in the same post.

Unvote, Vote: Swimmer

telling people that your town play is scummy is not a defense. It's a weak excuse to behave scummily.

No, it's an indicator that, for RayFrost, the behavior you considered scummy *isn't* a scumtell.

Best thing I can see in your favor right now is that tunnel vision (which you are clearly falling victim to) is a newb town tell. That's not reassuring me.

-----

Short notes on other matters:
- I've been working on total reads of the players in the game (reading through a player's posts in isolation in 10-50 completed games, looking for patterns as scum and as town). This is a time-intensive process, and I've been short on time lately with real life issues and modding Legacy of the Ancients, hence the lack of posts so far.
- Merkabah vs. Exalt: Knock it off. Now. That goes double for you, Merkabah: total read on Exalt's past games indicates to me that he's very probably town (the main reason for doubt here is that Exalt has been scum in exactly one completed game, and that was some time ago).
- I have my opinions on Merkabah, but I am not going to say what those opinions are at this time - I want to see more posting from Merkabah before I make a firm conclusion on him. For now, suffice it to say that I may have found a meta tell on one of the hydra heads, but I need more time to make sure that it's applicable.
- I need to finish a total read on MonkeyMan, but given what I've read so far I'm uneasy about him; in particular, his play here so far generally reminds me of his play as scum in just-completed Gurren Lagann.
- There's a few players I consider fairly or strongly town other than Exalt, but I'm not sure whether I should reveal them at this time.

[Tarhalindur]

Exalt analysis:

- I was wrong about my earlier read on Exalt. However, there are two good reasons: Exalt has been scum in only one game before this one, and...
- Exalt flipped Jupiter Mafia, and his case against Merkabah looked like scumhunting to me. I'm pretty sure that, even if there is only one Mafia (extremely unlikely given that a faction name was provided in a Normal - I'd put ~90% odds on 2 factions), we can be damn sure that the Jupiter Mafia is assuming two factions and hunting for their counterpart.

First rule of multiscum: Many of what I consider single-faction tells do not apply during multiscum (since they are predicated on scum knowing which players are group scum, which is invalid in multiscum).

Specific Exalt posts:

for blatant lies.

I just reread and realized you did post already. Good for you glork.

Your name is still annoying to me, for some reason.

Also, do you always OMGUS vote people that vote you when you are scum, or are you just upset that I don't like your name?

I've found that scum, especially newb scum, are somewhat more likely to vote for a partner than a townie (used to be more prevalent than it is now). It's not damning, especially on its own... but Glork's early shift to swimmer after the early Exalt exchange doesn't sit well with me. Neither does Glork's failure to at least FoS Exalt during his more recent questioning (the comments after switching his vote to swimmer/Kise) despite doing so for Empking/Kise early on.

I don't find it conclusive by any means (want more information and a closer read on Glork's playstyle - the latter is problematic given how rarely Glork has been scum in multiscum), but

IGMEOY: Glork

. If he is scum, he's probably Jupiter Mafia).

Glork had posted. This was probably an intentional mistake to make your case look bigger. Convince me otherwise.

Since it was obviously such a momentous case on my RV, I would like to say that I do not care enough to convince you of anything, because I am always right! (and I also didn't notice that Glork posted when I picked out a name on the list to RV, so yes it helped my case so I thought) The fact that it is making such a stir makes me believe I am on to something. Only scum freak out over a RVS vote, and only scum would defend a player based on them freaking out over a RVS vote.

So, you are saying both me and Glork are scum? I didn't think Glork was overreacting, so could you please show me where and how, and why you think it makes him look like scum?

I'm saying that I voted Glork as a RVS vote, and so OBVIOUSLY it wasn't a serious case. If you read the thread, you would have noticed it was my first post of the game. It is also why I refused to give you a serious response, because this should be common sense.

You possibly could be scum based on your clear overreaction to an RVS vote. I voted Glork in RVS and you and merkahbah jumped on me for that REAL fast. I am assuming you are the only one taking this seriously, so I am still wondering... why? What made you jump to defend Glork from a single RVS vote so strongly and then CONTINUE to defend him past RVS? I thought Glork was reacting fine in RVS, but now you are attaching to his leg like a leech.

Where is my question Wickedestjr? You have said that you are now ending your RVS questions and getting down to business, so why am I left out here?

I had already posted something for you to respond to here;

I find something really annoying about his name. He also hasn't posted, so he is obv lurking scum.

Glork had posted. This was probably an intentional mistake to make your case look bigger. Convince me otherwise.

I already did answer this question, but you must not have paid attention. My first post of the game was an RVS vote, and I picked Glork. I didn't see his post, and so I said he didn't post. Either way, it was an RVS vote. The name Glork stood out to me as annoying, and so I picked it.

The question that I was looking for was something unrelated to an RVS vote. You are still stuck on it, and you seem to be the only one taking it seriously. This doesn't look very townie to me, since you attached to Glork/Merkabah's argument very quickly without your own reservations or thought process. Why is that?

Wickedestjr: Are you scum?

No. How about you?

No. How do I know you aren't lying to me scum? Convince me otherwise. (does that sound familiar?

MonkeyMan has made bad attacks like this before in the last game I played with him, but he seems to be doing it more this game.

What was his alignment the last game you played with him?

I am quite confident that Monkey/Swim are scum together.

Can you please explain exactly what it is you find scummy about each of them? Do not copy paste someone else's arguments either. If you agree with them, say so, but say why.





Now my thoughts:

Rayfrost's "overdefensiveness" is a null tell IMO. He played exactly the same the last game I was in with him, and he was an endgamed townie. He was less confident than he seems now, but that is to be expected. I actually see him as more town than most right now.

I find it suspicious that some of you latch onto absolutely nothing and try to make it into a great scum hunting case. (MonkeyMan576, swimmer4life: Wickedestjr)

I also hate agreeing with the people who are voting them.

My opinions are that swimmer4life is by far more scummy than Monkeyman. They would both have to be newbscum to have the same bad arguments on the same player at the same time. I fail to believe this, so I think swimmer just jumped with the first case he/she saw and ran with it. With it being such a bad case, I would say he/she is possible newbscum.

UNVOTE

VOTE: swimmer4life

That being said, I want to hear more of an extensive analysis from the people actually jumping on the monkey/swimmer bandwagon. All of you have used very weak reasoning in your votes, and this is suspicious to me as well.

Intuition says you're either an alt or newbscum. Possibly both.

Unvote, Vote: swimmer4lyfe

I'm glad your intuition says this, but care to explain to the rest of the world what your intuition is telling you in more detail? God might speak to you as well, but it doesn't help anyone if you don't tell us what he says.

I'm not suspicious of swimmer. His posts give me town vibes, and also, I like his attack of cyberbob. The only thing that really bothers me is how he avoided saying anything about MonkeyMan, but I still think he is town.

I hate when people say "town vibes" or "scum vibes" but fail to mention any specific posts. Please do so. I disagree with your "town vibe" and so I would like to know what makes you think this way.

Here.

You are useless.

Unvote

Vote: Swimmer

I had a reason

but I've forgotten it.

really really useless.

Wicked, swimmer, and Empking probably aren't Jupiter Mafia*. However, note the defense for RayFrost and especially the decision to vote MonkeyMan over swimmer (including that he admits MM is scummy but doesn't do anything about it).

@Ray: it's distracting.

MMan and Exalt are pretty clearly scum together. Exalt, most of your 96 gives me terrible vibes (especially the semi-defense/semi-bussing of MMan) and the quick counterwagon to MMan doesn't make me warm and fuzzy either. I clearly made my intention clear that we thought you were scummy and I had an opportunity to check in and vote. To ignore that and then OMGUS me also screams scum.

Vote stays on Exalt for now, but MMan deserves to swing right here and right now. His continued vague and self-undermining of his own attacks are pretty clearly scum attacks as well. Swimmer seems town from the people that are against her.

-A

So let me get this straight... you get scum vibes from me because I think swimmer4life jumped on MM's weak case and pushed it hard, all the while he was buddying MM... while in the meantime MM tries pushing swim far away? Really?

Usually buddying is from one town and one scum leeching off that town to "look" town if that player flips... You almost NEVER see two scum buddying like this... ever.... ever ever ever.... But you definitely see a lot of the "leech" buddying that I was talking about...

so I am voting the leecher... and this gives you a scum vibe? Maybe you need to read up on past mafia games and try proving me wrong, cuz I'm not

I didn't realize I had the power to start a soft bandwagon, but whatever floats your boat here. I have one vote and my opinions, which I will speak Everyone else's votes are their own.

What I do not like is your chainsaw defense for swimmer here. What posts give you a town vibe from swimmer over MM? I think the opposite. Swim is using the exact bad case MM had and tried to attach to his hip with it, and you think swim is town and MM is scum? How do you figure?

You are looking like scum trying to protect your buddy.


Oh yes, and I OMGUS voted you because you OMGUS voted me after I called you scum earlier. I did it to piss you off, which seems to have worked just fine It quite clearly wasn't a serious nor final vote, but alas, anyone with any common sense could have figured that one out. I will actually make a case against you if I decide to lynchvote your scummy ass. Are you still going on about that RVS vote with Wicked now?

Also, if you think MM is scum, why are you voting me? Are you hoping someone will get lynched and you will have no blame for the wagon? Your vote on me reads more like an excuse not to vote on a wagon more than anything. Why are you playing so safe? Scum much?

1) Merkabah is fairly obviously not Jupiter Mafia. Unrevealed faction, however, is a distinct possibility.

With benefit of hindsight - REALLY not liking Exalt's defense here.

- He's trying to link swimmer to MonkeyMan, and the wording here really doesn't sit well (specifically arguing that swimmer is trying to buddy up to MM and the other is resisting - I don't see how MM was "resisting", and frankly suspect a classic attempt to tie a scum and a townie together)
- He argues that you almost never see two scum buddy together... without mentioning the first corollary, namely that if you think scum never buddy then you have an EXCELLENT reason for two scum to buddy together (if one flips scum and the town buys the argument, then they'll falseclear the other). Also, WIFOM.
- Accuses Merkabah of Chainsaw Defense of swimmer. BZZT. There's only one situation in which I still consider Chainsaw a usable tell, namely the one where a dead scum defended a living player by attacking his attacker.

Of course, speaking of that... Exalt is dead scum, and defended MonkeyMan by attacking Merkabah... it's not perfect, especially since you could argue that Exalt was defending himself more than MM (not to mention that Chainsaw is weak anyways), but it's something to keep in mind.

MMan and Exalt are pretty clearly scum together.

Also, if MMan flipped town, does that make me town too? If MMan does not flip town, does that make me scum too? What if one of us were scum and the other was town? Which is which?

In the same respects, since you are defending swim and attacking MM (the opposite of what I'm doing), does this mean that if swim is scum, you are also scum, or if swim is town you are town, or one of you are scum?

You are talking in absolutes, so I'm just playing along while wondering why? Based on your (Amished) past play, you quite clearly aren't this shortsighted and dumb... so I'm guessing I'm speaking to the shortbus person out of the two? Is this like a dr jeckle mr hyde thing or what?

You find me scum for disagreeing with you and going the other direction. If swim flips scum, this should mean you are scum as well, right? This can be the only logical choice based on your thought process with me.

Oh wait, that takes away one of the big objections to calling in Chainsaw - Exalt admits that he was Chainsawing MonkeyMan (remember, the one situation where it's usable is when the Chainsawer has already flipped scum)

Also, remember how Exalt admitted that MonkeyMan's play was scummy earlier? And now he's Chainsawing on behalf of MonkeyMan?

I'm convinced. MonkeMan is Jupiter Mafia.

Unvote, Vote: MonkeyMan576

I might be missing something here, but it looks like you're accusing Merkabah of kissing up to me during the RVS, and trying to make it stick on Page 8. I'm also wondering, if you were still making "RVS Posts," why you're accusing Merk of being "obviously buddies with Glork." There doesn't seem to be any real basis behind that statement, so I'm trying to get a feel for your thought process.

I'm more accusing Merkabah of being biased toward you in the way he focuses on how everything I do is wrong, and everything you do is right. He obviously knows you better, which is fine, but he is refusing to look at both sides of the coin.

I'm not saying you are scum buddies or in game buddies beyond the fact that he has a bias when it comes to you. He simply likes you more, if that makes sense. He isn't using content at that point, but more of a "I know Glork better than Exalt, so Glork is clearly right" type attitude. I don't really know why he is doing it, but it's pretty clear that it's happening.

My view on you right now Glork is that you are town. I haven't seen any scumtells from you that stand out, so I'm pretty neutral with it. What I have seen is Merkabah trying very hard to distract from swimmer and move it over to me and him. I don't like his chainsaw at all, but he keeps doing it. He brings you up, so I have to respond to it. Simple as that.

Swimmer is definitely not Jupiter Mafia.

Intuition doesn't like the tone of the Glork post (reads distancing from a partner), but with the caveat that I remember from old games that Glork does use a question-heavy style as town... still keeping an eye on him.

This being such a large game, I am starting to wonder about the players that are blatantly lurking and staying under the radar. There are a lot of them, and I am positive they aren't all town.

Quite a few players are not posting any worthwhile content whatsoever, and they are getting away with it. 10 pages in should be enough time for them to do SOMETHING, but they aren't. I'm sure everyone can figure out who, but if you want a list I can give one.

I daresay that most of Jupiter Mafia is active - I've omitted three other posts so far (two from before the Merkabah arguments, one immediately before this post) where Exalt has been suspicious of the lurkers.

On other other hand, I'll bet the talk about being positive that some of the lurkers aren't town is a slip - there should be at least one member of the Jupiter Mafia among them.

Alright, let's get on with the MonkeyMan lynching.

[Tarhalindur]

I've found that scum, especially newb scum, are somewhat more likely to vote for a partner than a townie (used to be more prevalent than it is now).

*looks at the phrase "newb scum"*
*looks at his own join date*
*looks at his past Scummies won*

*very legit confsued*

I thought I made it clear that I was referring to Exalt's vote for you in random stage. Exalt *was* newb scum (albeit at the edge of being experienced), especially given that he was scum in exactly ONE of his completed games.

It's not damning, especially on its own... but Glork's early shift to swimmer after the early Exalt exchange doesn't sit well with me. Neither does Glork's failure to at least FoS Exalt during his more recent questioning (the comments after switching his vote to swimmer/Kise)

despite doing so for Empking/Kise early on.

Please read the post count of the Kise/EmpKing post and then rethink this entire paragraph/argument. You're better than this, Tar, and we both know it.


kthxbai

Yes, the Kise and Empking posts were very early. Unless you're saying that you don't FoS after random voting stage (in which case why not just say that? I'd already considered the possibility - it's been a while since my last games with you, and I didn't finish enough of the total read to remember if that's one of your tendencies), I don't see how that's relevant.

Looking over your posts again, I have one overriding question for you: Why vote swimmer over Exalt (who you had been previously voting for) AND MonkeyMan (who you expressed suspicion of)?

Also, "you're better than this" is a CRAP argument (and a personal pet peeve).

[Tarhalindur]

@Tarhalindur: I agreed with your initial post reasoning that swimmer was an alt (in which case alignment wouldn't be taken into account) or newbscum. I felt it was more an alt than anything; but with that "50/50" chance of being alt/newbscum, what primarily *at that time* make you lean towards the latter/make you feel the need to vote for swimmer?

1) At the time I considered him the scummiest player.
2) If swimmer WAS an alt he could just say so, and then I could move my vote (or else keep it on him for different reasons).

[Tarhalindur]

Prodded.

1) I have less time than I expected, and two major projects due this week.

Mod: V/LA until Thursday.

Note that I'm also a bit behind, so I'll need to do a little catching up.

2) Not 100% buying the MonkeyMan claim (especially given the timing), but it's not something to deal with right now. Given that the claim is confirmable, I suspect that MM is at least telling the truth about being a tracker... but Mafia Tracker is a possibility.

Speaking of that, if MM is scum I'll bet RBT is his partner given these posts:

I see the case on swimmer, but Exalt being on his wagon makes me leery. I guess I could get behind a wagon on his replacment, but there wouldn't be much fire to it.

Reminder, odds are there are two scum factions. There's no reason to discredit scum hunting scum.

I like the case brought up by Merk. I still believe MM to be scum, and highly likely for Wysp as well, due to Swimmer's actions.

Unvote; Vote:Cyberbob
HoS:Monkey

I suspect the Monkey situation will be sorted tonight (suspecting a possible Mafia Watcher, hinting at two factions. Note MM really hasn't stated anything about it yet.)

That second post looks fishy in particular... why did RBT leap from "MM claimed Tracker" to "suspecting a Mafia Watcher"? That REEKS of inside information to me.

3) Let's see:

To be honest about something, I've yet to actually read this thread in full, I've only read some pages here and there. I'm not sure when I'll get around to give this game a full read myself.

From what I have read, Merk seems very town, and I know that VP and Amished are both competent players, so I'm fully willing to simply follow Merk on his Cyberbob read. Same thing for Glork to an extent too, though my town read isn't quite as good as mine is on Merk. Following these two on the Cyber wagon is probably better than any vote I would make on my own right now.

Of what I have seen of Cyberbob here, his reaction to his wagon these last few pages doesn't sit too well with me. His play doesn't feel to me like its coming from town who feels he's being falsely accused, he's just been playing apathetic and defeated. I'm not sure how well I could explain why Cyber's play here bother's me, but it really feels to me like we've got scum here.

About these quick votes on him that seem to be getting people so worked up over for some reason, even if you felt they were scummy(I don't), I don't see how this is any sign of Cyber being town. I think its just as likely, if not more so, that scum would opportunistically jump early on a wagon that they know is on scum(i.e. busing) in order to distance and make themselves look better after the lynch, then they would a wagon they thought was on town. And even if you disagree with me on that, these "scummy" people could easily just be part of Cyber's opposing scum faction.

Wow. In four paragraphs, Vaya manages to give out almost NO information on what he's actually thinking. He's perfectly willing to summarize but doesn't draw any firm conclusions from it (except for a few players he thinks are town).

It's wishy-washiness and IIoA in one easy-to-read package! (Caveat: IIoA doesn't work as well in multiscum as in singlescum.)

4) Other players:

- Cyberbob reads poorly (he's starting to remind me of the way he played in 87, and Merkabah is right in calling his recent play IIoA... er, "contentless"), despite reading fairly town early on. I need to read some of his completed games again, but don't have time right now.
- RayFrost is bugging me, but I need to total read him before I make any decisions.
- Raivann is very under the radar and hasn't said anything.
- Empking's in this game? DAMMIT, I WANT A DAYKILL NOW.
- SnowBunny reads very weakly town given this post:

Well, I'm reading MM in iso, and I'm finding him scummy.

-Attacks Ray for "over-defensive" looks scum so early in the game.
-He says he's not pushing for a RF lynch, just voting for him (this is, he's creating an excuse for a mislynch).
-Votes for Swimmer for he thinks Swimmer has inside information.
-Trying to buddy with town to gain points
-Keeps attacks on RF over nonsenses
-Under pressure, tries to diminish his attacks saying they weren't the big thing

He later claims tracker, which, well, would be a shame to lose if he's actually saying the truth. And as tracker is easily confirmed, I suggest we leave him be for now. If anything, he can be a good D2 lynch.

I'm getting some suspicions on RBT, Tar and Cyber, nothing great, but something.

Unvote.

There's enough reasoning behind the MM summary for me to suspect that there was actual scumhunting/interpretation going on there.

- Kise may still be scum, though he's not a top priority. His early play reminds me of Mastin in Mafia 92 (and jokes are scummy even in early stage, especially when you're joking about being scum with another player). Also, see the rolefishing here:

I can get behind this^

Believing MM's claim, I will also consider that there is Watcher around here. If that person exist and is open to suggestions, I'd target MM just in case he's roleblocked, or worst.

Scum reads = Wickedjester, Cyberbob, & swimmer

So, that's a lot of scummy players. Give me a bit to decide who's the scummiest.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP:

Unvote

.

[Tarhalindur]

Anywho, here are my thoughts starting from the bottom of Page 12/top of Page 13.

- Post 300 kinda looks like Kise trying to slip in a sneaky little "opportunism" attack on me. I'll admit to only being alerted to the post I voted him for by Glork, but prior to today I really truly haven't been paying as much attention to the game as I really needed to be if I wanted to stay focused. Mea culpa, but I won't apologise for it - I did as well as I could given that it was in the middle of my exam period.
- Post 307 is a good post with regards to the "replacements > policy lynch" deal - at least in this situation. I do support policy lynches for certain other things.
- Post 315 from SolemnJ seems like a pretty lazy vote. He's basically taken everything people have been saying about MonkeyMan, condensed it into a few words, offered up nothing of his own, and stuck a vote in at the end.
- To be honest I don't really follow Pads' attack on me in Post 353. Scum don't always buddy up to their partners - in fact I would say they're almost more likely to buddy up to

town

players. He throws in a few iterations of the "oh that's

just

X enough to be inconspicuous - scum?????" attack, which really only strikes me as confirmation bias.
- WTF @ Monkey's roleclaim?
- Re: Wicked's question in Post 369: I was half-kidding. I was (and still am) always going to go into proper detail about my swimmer vote even if Merk didn't recant, I was just looking to get a little snark in.

I'll end this post with the scum reads requested by Socrates:

Right now I'm still liking my Kise vote. I don't think his counterattack is at all genuine; I think he's slipping in a bit of the old OMGUS. Apart from that, I'd say SolemnJ would be second in line and after that probably Raivann for not even being able to recognise the fact that Swimmer got replaced.

MonkeyMan could be up there too, but he hasn't really posted all that much in the pages included in today's read apart from that awful claim. I'll do some more reading tomorrow morning.

Well, apparently I won't need time to decide who's scummiest after all. If there's one thing I've learned how to spot, it's a scum PBPA. Notice how Cyberbob summarizes what players are doing but doesn't draw any firm conclusions from it (i.e, whether they are town or scum)? That's CLASSIC scum behavior right there - it's outed more than one scumbag for me in the past.

Vote: Cyberbob

[Tarhalindur]

Ray, there are people who still haven't posted in the thread entirely, but you're focusing on Vaya? Sounds like "easy chainsaw" mentality.

Today, Cyber; tomorrow, Ray (if he flips scum for obvious chainsaw, which is going to happen).

Craplogic. Chainsaw is a null tell until the person defended flips scum.

If not for the continued existence of Cyberbob (who probably isn't in your scumgroup), I would be voting you right now. However...

MFoS: Riceballtail

On the other hand... *reads Cyberbob as scum in Commie Mafia more carefully*... while Cyberbob wasn't as emotional there as he is here, dear gods his summary posts there are JUST like his ones here. (Including one very early this game where my first read was a town PBPA. Oops.)

[Tarhalindur]

Back, rereading (focusing on a different game, in part because there are so many scummy players here that I'm having trouble figuring out which ones are actually scum).

1) Cyberbob... not sure. Gut says that most scum is unlikely to claim vanilla D1, but that just leads to Worlds of WIFOM. His PBPAs are scummy, and he's done little if any scumhunting. The total read I just finished isn't helping either - he's aggressive enough for me to be uncomfortable calling him scum (by my read, Cyberscum tends to be more passive than Cybertown), but he's not in-depth enough for me to be comfortable calling him town.

On balance... I'm still leaning Cyberscum, though it's not as firm a read as I'd like. The evidence of scumhunting can be explained easily enough by multiscum, since scum in multiscum tend to hunt for the other faction. Besides, worst case scenario is that we lynch a vanilla and I get a little more information to work with.

That said, the way the wagon's developed... even if Cyberbob is scum, I'll bet most of whichever faction he's not a part of is on the wagon. See in particular Vaya and Pads.

(Side note: After finishing the total read, I'm not nearly as confident in calling Cyberbob's PBPAs scum PBPAs as I was)

2) Observe this post:

Another filler post from muh w/ no content. Which is even doubly suspicious after his earlier posts...

still raeading. You guys post alot of content. I dont post alot. I might post a paragraph usually less

but i post something of content

Muh is obvscum and I'm thinking maybe even scum PR with the way swimmer was being defended.

so not posting content is a scumtell. I think not. And I think that maybe Merk vs Exalt was done on purpose because people would not suspect Merk. but it does seem like Exalt's nerves popped out on page 12 so I think I should eliminate that. So im gonna continue reading. Hope I'll be done in 3 days. The game is pretty interesting. And why was swimmer replaced by wysp? what did he do? And shouldnt the day have ended at EXalts kill?

Wait... what?

Funny how he claims that not posting content isn't a scumtell, when it's served me well enough in the past for me to give an acronym for it (IIoA). Also funny how this post is such a perfect example of the tell itself.

3) This game is NOT adding up. Part of the problem is just me, I'm sure (I know damn well that I'm generally a weak player in the early game), and part of the problem is that I can't see the multiscum dynamics playing out yet... but this game is still not making sense to me.

I'm pretty sure that two players are town, and while I'm not so sure about Devestation we should worry about him later, but the rest of this game is just a big morass of scummy and there's too much of it for it all to be town.

Merkabah, Vaya, RBT, Snow_Bunny, Wicked, Pads, MonkeyMan, Glork, SensFan:

If Cyberbob flips scum, a) Do you think he will flip Jupiter Mafia or from an unrevealed group? and b) Who do you think his most likely partner is?

Yes, these questions are important.

Personal answers (since I'm asking everyone on the Cyberbob wagon): Cyberbob is more likely to be Jupiter Mafia (would be much more sure about this if not for Cyberbob going V/LA and falling behind immediately after the Exalt modkill, which might on its own explain the change in his play I'm seeing at that time); on balance, xRECKONERx looks most likely to be a Cyberbob partner.

[Tarhalindur]

SensFan,

Town Tracker

, was shot in the head night 1.
Snow_Bunny,

Town Villager

, was brutally murdered night 1.

It is now day 2.

You are a Town Tracker

You win when all anti-town threats are eliminated.

Abilities:

Track: During the night, you may choose one player to track that night. You will learn who all the players that the player targeted during the night were.

You are a Town Villager

You win when all anti-town threats are eliminated.

Abilities:

You have no abilities besides your reason, your voice, and your vote.

Well, I have a limitation on my role, so maybe SensFan had a limiatation also? And my claim wasn't "out of nowhere".

Bullshit.

I was weighing the possibility of the setup having two trackers until MM made this post - but he just made it clear he's lying scum.

Vote: MonkeyMan
LOCK ON: MonkeyMan

If theres one, theres no reason why there isn't another one... maybe its just the way the game is set up (we have trackers instead of cops or something).

And it's also guessable that we have a mafia and either a serial killer or a cult, judging by the theme behind the kills.

Given these posts and the way you acted last night, Devestation, I think I'm going to claim this part of my role now.

Devestation is my unconfirmed mason partner. That's not the only aspect of my role, but it's the one that's most important right now.

Important word here is UNCONFIRMED - I don't trust him one bit right now. (He was a) not talking much and b) talking about using a shared aspect of our role in a manner I consider very antitown in what is likely a multiscum setup - both behaviors I would associate with a scum mason.)

[Tarhalindur]

Ray Frost is obviously lying. There's not 3 Trackers for sure. I didn't target SensFan, any scum could make up that claim.

Unvote:
Vote: RayFrost

I love the smell of cornered scum in the morning. (I mean, seriously - that's textbook newb scum response to a counterclaim; see also killa7 in Random Mafia 3.)

Let's get it done, folks.

[Tarhalindur]

Note to self: RF may be scum himself, though I doubt it.

Doesn't change the fact that MM is dead scum walking, though.

[Tarhalindur]

I tracked Merk - no result.

I did so because my gut told me it was a good idea...

and Merk's play yesterday felt odd (not scummy, just odd).

I can believe that - Prison Guards (or rather, me, since Devestation still didn't have much to say) decided that Mafia was more likely to kill you than our other candidates (Glork, Merkabah) last night and jailed you.

I can also account for at least one of the missing vig kills (SOP as jailkeeper is to jail the strongest analyst who you think is town).

Whoa! I missed you guys let day 2 go on without most of the players. And great job on the kill yesterday. But how many mafia members could there be. We already have two down. Could there be three member in the Jupiter mafia.

If not for the fact that the Jupiter Mafia jumped on your predecessor's wagon D1 and "brutally murdered" sounds like an SK kill method, I'd be happy to lynch you for this post alone - it's so newbscum it hurts.

I mean, seriously... talking about how well or poorly something went for town then going straight into setup speculation without scumhunting at ALL? It's hard to get scummier than that.

In other news, I need to take a closer look at Pads and Riceballtail in that order.

[Tarhalindur]

Oh right, should probably declare this:

V/LA until Friday (finals week)

.

We shoulda lynched Muh D1.
I wouldn't say a Muh lynch would provide no info either.

Over, say, MonkeyMan or Cyberbob? Despite the fact that Exalt (known scum) was on an early swimmer(Muh) bandwagon with one or two other suspicious players (MonkeyMan, Cyberbob) were on his wagon?

*raises eyebrow*

Unless we can prove that there is a second Mafia, given that at least TWO Jupiter Mafiosos were on the early swimmer wagon I have trouble believing that muh is actually scum in spite how damn scummy his play is. (And by "damn scummy" I mean "if I had a dayvig you'd be a cooling corpse on the ground.)

On the other hand, I have... *checks Raivann ISO*... absolutely ZERO trouble believing that you're either Jupiter Mafia (trying to force a mislynch) or Lyncher (with muh as lynchee), probably the former. In fact...

I did infact call Glork's vote on me OMGUS. As I stated, when I RVS voted Glork, I did not see his posts anywhere. I simply made it known that he was scum. He voted me for that, and said I was a blatant liar. He did in fact post once. I made the mistake, but alas, he overreacted, thus it is still OMGUS.

Quick question. Do you actually put any weight into this? Because I assumed that you were joking.

Not really. I keep saying it's RVS, but Merkabah doesn't listen, so I have to talk about it.

Why does it matter when it was posted?

What is your read on Glork ATM?

Does anybody else see the problem with this post?

Can we get rid of the Jupiter Mafioso now?

Vote: Raivann

[Tarhalindur]

Prodded (was planning to post tonight anyways, other games have been a priority).

Let's see, who could the scum be... here's a few good candidates:

1) Raivann:

If theres one, theres no reason why there isn't another one... maybe its just the way the game is set up (we have trackers instead of cops or something).

And it's also guessable that we have a mafia and either a serial killer or a cult, judging by the theme behind the kills.

Given these posts and the way you acted last night, Devestation, I think I'm going to claim this part of my role now.

Devestation is my unconfirmed mason partner. That's not the only aspect of my role, but it's the one that's most important right now.

Important word here is UNCONFIRMED - I don't trust him one bit right now. (He was a) not talking much and b) talking about using a shared aspect of our role in a manner I consider very antitown in what is likely a multiscum setup - both behaviors I would associate with a scum mason.)

What was scummy about Devs posts you quoted?
In first Devestation quote I think that it makes sense.
I could see 2 town trackers and 2 town Jail guards only if there is no cops.
Or it could also be that
Town tracker= Sensfan / Scum tracker= RF
Town Jail Guard= Devestation / Scum Jail Guard = Tar
Are Jail Guards normally of same alignment?
You out and setup your fellow Jail Guardsman for not talking then you bring up the multiscum setup as a reason.

Unless we can prove that there is a second Mafia, given that at least TWO Jupiter Mafiosos were on the early swimmer wagon I have trouble believing that muh is actually scum in spite how damn scummy his play is. (And by "damn scummy" I mean "if I had a dayvig you'd be a cooling corpse on the ground.)

Not so worried about multiscum setup here.

1) Clearly you're unfamiliar with the Information Instead of Analysis tell - a player who posts mostly game state summaries/Mafia theory discussions/setup speculation/out of game commentary/etc. to the EXCLUSION of scumhunting is VERY likely to be scum, since that means that the player isn't scumhunting (it's strongest in games with a single scumgroup, where scum probably KNOW that there aren't other group scum to hunt, but applicable even if the game proves to be multiscum).

2) Nice craplogic. In case you hadn't noticed, there was a night between the first and second posts you quoted where there was no change in kill method, and the two kill methods seen probably include an SK. With just one night of two kills, it's possible that the second group's scumkill just got blocked (coughPrisonGuardscough) so the logical assumption given a named Mafia faction flip is multiscum; with two that's less likely, so the possibility that the named Mafia faction is a red herring increases considerably.

I just had a great idea about how to end the Muh debate...

Vote:Muh

Let's lynch him!

With all the attacking and definding of Muh I think a plethora of info would be gained. I know it will help me with my reads on all y'all who are so sure that he's newbtown in spite of swimmers posts, wysps non posts, Muhs posts and super lurking. If im wrong I'll help Merkabah eat Devestation's hats.

Hey look, Annachie's not the only person pushing for a muh lynch on information grounds! It's as scummy coming from you as it is coming from him.

As an aside, I'm starting to think that muh is one of those rare cases where a Mafia group decides that a player is a guaranteed mislynch/scum from another group and completely falls apart attacking that player (see: Random Mafia 3 (Tarhalindur), Medieval Mafia (zwetschenwasser). I can easily buy Annachie and Raivann being the surviving members of the Jupiter Mafia.

This Annachie wagon kinda reminds of the Cyberbob wagon.
I'm just not seeing how Annachie's posts are scummy.
So he's scummy for saying Muh is scum?
To avoid suspicion in this town just post like Muh or Empking , I guess.

vote annachie

Say Muh is town, are we then going to be scum because we defended a townie? Or are we town and just had a read on them/correctly interpreted scum actions?

If Muh flips town, I'll get onboard with the 1 scumteam school of of thought.

Raivann, Say you can't get your precious Muh lynch today, who do you vote?

Idk, probly Empking.

Okay, I don't care WHAT alignment Annachie is, Raivann is probably Jupiter Mafia given this post.

If Annarchie is Jupiter Mafia, Raivann is defending his buddy.

If Annarchie is NOT Jupiter Mafia, Raivann is Jupiter Mafia who knows that Annarchie is not Jupiter Mafia and is opposing the wagon for townie points.

Seriously - I doubt I'm going to be alive tomorrow, so make sure you lynch Raivann for me at some point, okay?

Also, @xRECKONERx:

Does anybody else see the problem with this post?

No?

Then go back and ISO Raivann.

Raivann's interactions with Exalt look like classic scum coaching/distancing (see also: Random Mafia 3 (UnofficialRulerofEveryone), and almost ALL other interactions Raivann has had during the game have been either perfunctory (hopping on/hammering MM D2 after it was obvious he was scum) or pushing a swimmer/Wysp/muh lynch in some way, shape or form.

This is town play how, exactly.

2) Annachie:


Post 1. Asking about the hydra. Fair question at that point. (+)

Post 2. Didn't see CB's RVS comment as scummy, FOS Swimmer/Muh Opinion, but good opinions. (+)

Post 3. Fair Q to Swimmer/Muh. (+)

Post 4. Good Q to Exalt. Esp given Exalt being scum. Was seeking info on Glork though. (N)

Post 5. Pointless and contentless. But it was when Exalt was really mouthing off. (-N)

Post 6. More sillyness. Pointless and Contentless. But again in Exalt. (- N)

Post 7. Attack swimmer for lieing, antagonistic and not answering. No Swimmer lie though. Maybe swimmer missrep or BSing.
Quotes to support is 50:50
Quotes self.
Some content, more non-content. (N)

Post 8. Fair Q to Wicked & Merk. (+)

Post 9. Fair comment (+)

Post 10. Contentless, but fair enough. (N)

Post 11. Facitious comment (at best) and a silly question. (You should know what an accidental hammer is by now) (-)

Post 12. Facitious again. (-) Post 11 and 12 are borderline scummy imo.

Post 13. Newb Q that I would have thought Rav should be past needing to ask. (-N)

Post 14. Tunnel Vision, though believed CB's VT claim. (+N)

Post 15. (N)

Post 16. (+)

Post 17. Opinion. But good opinion. (+)

Post 18. Hammer vote on someone he believed to be town. Right vote though. (+)

Post 19. Opinion, but agree 100% (+)

Post 20. Tunnel Muh. (+N)

Post 21. Answered Q about who Muh replaced. (N)

Post 22. Fair comment. (+)

Post 23. (N)

Overall positive town feel, though a rather nasty tunnel vission on Swimmer/Muh. Some newbieness showing when un-expected judging by his join date.

Tar, I disagree with Raivann being mafia. With the newb type questions and the severe tunnel vission, I think your lyncher option is the correct one for him.

I really despise pretty much everything Devestation has posted in this game, and if he's not scum I'd eat his many many hats.
-VPB

Do you want sauce with that?
VPB, how do your thoughts or feelings about Devestation posts change with his role being revealed?


#900 EBWOP.
Please. [/quote]

Oh look, a scum PBPA. Note the use of "scum/town points" (classic scumtell!) and how much of the PBPA is summary (yes, there's stuff that shows some of Annachie's conclusions, but Annachie doesn't explain WHY he finds the specific posts scummy or townie). IIoA in a PBPA does not a townie make.

Oh Zor. Don't you love the mis-representation.

I believe I said that the main indicator of Muh being scum is Merk's way over the top defense of Muh and attack on me after I asked for the Muh PBPA be extended to Swimmer.

I never attacked him, and I don't believe I ever did say that I did.
His guilt is serious lack of content and, and let me stress this, someone elses actions towards him.

The Muh lynch answers Muh's alignment, but, and let me stress this, it also answers questions about Merkabah and goes a long way towards Kise as well.

Why Muh. It's achievable. Other people are suspicious of him for their own reasons.

and more importantly, he still hasn't posted content.

BTW, what is it. I'm scum because I ask lots of questions. I'm scum because after I get answers, or a no answers which is itself an answer, I offer analasys.

Scum twisting (I take severe issue with calling Merkabah's play today "over the top"), trying to claim that he's not attacking muh when he is (CLASSIC scumtell), pushing an information lynch (aka mislynch or "not my group" lynch), derisive response to attack... yeah, I can totally see the Annarchie wagon.

Hey Pads, how's that new chainsaw you got there?

Thanks for reminding me that you/Kise/Dev were scummy. Your posts selected ignore other parts that vitally explain the strategy that I've been using in order to weed out the scum (example: I perpetually insisted that Monkey/Swimmer were scumbuddies; however removing that fact, it would make me look scummy). You have also forgotten to mention the times of which I've argued with your scumbuddy Rec there (and maybe scumbuddy Tar? Or Merk even? I've posted suspicions there too!). This case looks like instead of actually reading me, you just went and looked at all my votes/fos/hos and made a case out of that.

I'll also point out that you went through all the effort to build a case on me, then put your vote on... the currently biggest wagon?

This is scum behavior.

There's nobody that I would defend as being town, so I won't call anyone town. Since we are likely dealing with two scum groups, it's inherent that we remember that someone who looks town may be the second group. Between the strawmans, the misrep, and the general out-of-nowhere case you built on me, I'm more than confident enough to:

VOTE:Pads

Hi RBT-scum (note the sudden raise in the length of RBT's posts and how he immediately goes into full OMGUS mode with crappy logic - that's a HUGE scumtell coming from RBT, though unfortunately the best evidence is currently ongoing). We'll need to lynch you at some point, though probably after Raivann.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP:

Mod, can you fix the quote tags fail in 991?

[ No, because I don't know where the tags should go. -Mod ]

Also, while I weakly prefer a Raivann lynch to an Annachie lynch (think they're both scum, but more sure of Raivann), since I'm pretty much alone on that right now and there's five days to deadline:

Unvote, Vote: Annachie

(RBT is third on the scumminess chart - if you see three kills tonight (which would imply two factions + SK, since the vig is dead), he's pretty much sure to be scum with muh.)

[Tarhalindur]

Annachie, you are at L-2 with 16 players alive and little time remaining before deadline. Claim or die.

[Tarhalindur]

I'll have time to post properly tomorrow, but for now:

Mod: Please prod/replace Slicey, preferably the latter. He hasn't posted in over a month.

[Tarhalindur]

Setup:

- I'm pretty sure "shot" is a Mafia kill at this point, given the players who have been killed by it (strong town analysts). I'd bet quite a lot that I blocked the N3 shot kill with the protect aspect of the jailkeeper, given who I protected... not sure if I should claim who that player is, though.
- The "murdered" kill, on the other hand, looks like whoever is using it was trying to set up a Vig claim until Glork died (and then took a potshot at RayFrost). That's a strong point in favor of our second killer being an SK instead of a second Mafia.
- With 2x Trackers, a Vig, and a modified Jailkeeper dead and the other modified Jailkeeper outed, we need to consider massclaim. I'm leaning towards massclaiming today myself, mainly on the grounds that I'm not sure I'll survive to tomorrow.
- If we do massclaim, I would like to be the last to claim.

Players:
- Muh COMPLETELY depends on whether the second kill comes from a second Mafia or an SK. If there's a second Mafia (a possibility supported by the revealed Mafia having a factional name), he's in it. If the second killer is an SK (which would make sense with the "brutally murdered" kill method and choice of players to kill with it - Vig is a traditional SK claim), muh is town. No middle ground here.
- Raivann is blatantly obviously Jupiter Mafia; he's been tunneled on muh beyond belief since Day 1 (in such a way that I'm pretty sure he's Mafia who's convinced muh is part of a second faction, though it's possible he just thinks muh is a guaranteed mislynch and is trying to force it to happen) and his interactions with Exalt D1 are blatantly obvious newbscum coaching.
- Riceballtail is scum (he subconsciously claimed as much in 974), though I'm not sure what kind (leaning Jupiter, since his behavior towards MM D1 looks like a bus to me). Unfortunately, the best evidence is from a currently "ongoing" game (more accurately, it's finished but the mod has gone completely absent), so you'll have to wait a bit for it.
- Vaya hasn't shown any thought or initiative of his own for the entire game. That's CLASSIC IIoA - Vaya needs to die, especially if an SK flips (IIoA is strongest in single-scum games). I'll bet he's Jupiter Mafia given his behavior, but either faction is plausible.
- Little nagging internal voice says Merkabah is SK/unrevealed faction, but the grounds for that pretty much boil down to "scum this way, no basis!" (read: I have a gut read that he's scum but have no idea why).
- Need to reread Pads (AGAIN); last read he looked town, but I have my doubts (I'm starting to suspect my nasty habit of buying scum defenses may be involved.
- Socrates needs a MUCH closer look. He's wishy-washy as hell (he's consistently couching his claims in "but it might be the other way around") and he's just dropped information I don't think he could have as town without asking the mod (and he gave us no indication that he asked the mod whether a player killed by multiple kills would show all the kill methods involved or just one; I've seen the latter used in normals before).
- zoraster, care to explain why you switched from the "stay away from muh" side of things yesterday to the "get rid of muh" side today?

Summary:
- Massclaim is worth considering, though it won't be absolutely necessary for 1-2 days.
- Muh lynch has a few major possible benefits; it's a decent test of whether the setup has multiple Mafia factions, it makes sure that we're not counting on muh to make a decision at endgame (given his apparent lack of will to play pro-town, that might be worth considering), and it would get several extremely prolific people pushing a muh lynch to SHUT THE FUCK UP about him. That last point is probably the best point to lynching muh - I don't see the setup advancing until he's dealt with, either by replacement or by lynch (he's not likely to get NKed). Percy in particularly should recognize what I'm afraid will happen if we leave muh alive.

On the other hand... despite his horribly scummy play, muh is not Jupiter Mafia (two Jupiter Mafiosos both pushed for his predecessor's lynch in a fashion that STRONGLY suggests they weren't bussing, and my top candidate for surviving Jupiter Mafia has been doing the same for three days). Nor is he SK; I don't think he's smart enough to have made either set of kills on his own. The only way he's scum is if he's from an unrevealed faction, and there are several other players (Raivann, Vaya, and Riceballtail all come to mind) who I think are considerably more likely to be scum than muh (since they could be Jupiter Mafia).

I'll make this clear - without a dead scum from a second faction, the only grounds I see for a muh lynch are policy lynch grounds. Those may actually be strong enough to lynch (I'm thinking about what muh would do to endgame, and it's not making me a happy *camper*), especially given that our vig is dead, but I'm not going to commit to such a path without thinking it over first - especially when there's several other players that need to die as well.

Case in point: Raivann

Vote: Raivann

[Tarhalindur]

@Raivann

Raivann wrote:

unvote, Vote:Cyberbob

===[]

[]===




Could you explain this post to me, specifically the penis duel that seems to be going on here?

You denounce the Cyberbob wagon a ten iso posts earlier Here, and say that you believe his claim four iso posts earlier here. And then you vote him?

And yesterday, you declare that Cyberbob wasn't scummy when explaining to Tar why we should have lynched muh Day 1, instead of Cyberbob.

Uh.. what?

Why in the world would you vote for someone you didn't find scummy? The last few games of mafia that I've played have really blurred the line between 'Information' lynches and 'pro-scum, guilt-free' lynches for me. And stuff like this is why.

I can't believe I'm getting flak for hammering Cyber. Those are hammers not penis's btw.
It was a couple hours or so till deadline if I remember correctly. Would you have preferred a no lynch? Yes it's true i didn't believe Cyber was scummy but there was no way of being sure.

Just give me my precious muh lynch today. You guys got your Anniechie lynch yesterday.

Here's a couple quotes from Glork before Tar outted his town partner. Both of whom are dead btw.

By the way, Tal, that post you just made put you way up on my list of People Who Need To Die. I will expand during D2, assuming I live that long. If not, the rest of the town will just have to figure out why you might be a dirty ol' scumbaggo.

Also, "you're better than this" is a CRAP argument (and a personal pet peeve).

It's not an argument. It's me telling you that I'm annoyed with you.

YAWN, I swear I've seen this post before... oh, right, DPSS (different player same shit):

SK is unightkillable generaly right?
And Tar you are full of shit you leave breadcrumbs to suggest you are a power role but I do believe you are sk now.\
Why do you believe that dahill1 should also go, I thought you had some sort of role information about him, but you said it didn't mean he was scum.
You are falling apart on this so I think my theory is right.

While different players made these posts, they have the same tone () and the same OMGUS without good reasons (I mean, seriously - I can't be responsible for both the Glork kill and the Devestation kill because they HAPPENED ON THE SAME NIGHT, for starters). Moreover, Raivann only pushes the idea that I'm scum when I attack him (when I'm not doing so he just lurks or pushes for a muh lynch); while OMGUS is a nulltell, Raivann's behavior indicates to me that he either doesn't genuinely think I'm scum or has mistakenly concluded that I am scum using information that he doesn't think he can claim in thread - and EITHER of those means he's scum. (Wouldn't be too surprised by the latter - TVOD honestly thought I was scum in Random 3 due to a failed kill).

There's also the fact that Raivann has been tunneled on swimmer/muh since Day 1 and that his only meaningful interactions for a good three days were pushing a muh lynch (the main exceptions being the Cyberbob hammer and what looks suspiciously like coaching towards a KNOWN SCUM).

However... I'd still like other players' opinions on massclaim. Until I hear those, I'm just going to sit on something like Peeves floating above the Fat Lady. (Hint: I'm almost certain I know where that missing shot kill went - doubly so if Raivann flips scum.)

[Tarhalindur]

Quick notes on setup (that IS one of my specialties): Plausible setups are 17-5-1 (moderate Mafia power), 18-4-1 (heavy Mafia power), 17-3-3 (outside shot, requires heavy Mafia power), and 15-4-4 (low to moderate Mafia power).

We're fine with massclaim. Actually, this would be a damn good time before the scum can coordinate too much as it's been going pretty well for them lately (ever since MMan, anyways) that I doubt that they'd really think about a coordinated claiming strategy.

Tar, you're about as close as confirmed as we can get; what do you think, popcorn or chosen? I generally shy away from chosen unless there's a sane cop investigation and GF dead.

Depends heavily on exactly how much you trust me. If you're sure I'm town, Tar-chosen is best (Amished: remember Inventor Mafia?). Otherwise, either random order (picked by in-thread dice rolls; random.org doesn't work for massclaim order) or popcorn is workable, though I weakly prefer the former.

[Tarhalindur]

Everyone who calls for muh lynch ends up getting killed.
And I'm saying don't blindly follow Tar just because he's Tar,because he's been off alot this game.
How bout precious muh lynch then you have precious Raivann lynch.

So Tar if I didn't get lynched today would you stay tunneled on me tomorrow ?
How's that diff. from what I'm doing with muh ?

Let's see... EVERYONE who calls for a muh lynch, you say? xRECKONERx is still alive. Empking's player slot is still alive, albeit replaced. Hell, if you count the players who pushed for a swimmer lynch before the double replacements then I'M still alive (though I bailed shortly after Exalt flipped).

Moreover, you have the gall to claim I'm tunnel-visioning? That takes real chutzpah there - I've been taking a good look at several other players (Riceballtail, Vaya, Merk all come to mind) AND I'm the guy who brought up massclaim. That's blatantly obvious proof that I'm not tunneling on you (since tunneling requires focusing on one player to the exclusion of considering almost everything else). The reason why I'm focusing on you right now is because I'm pretty damn sure you're scum of some kind - and I'm more sure about you being scum than I am about any other surviving player. If that changes (say, stupid scum claim during massclaim, a player doing something blatantly scummy, or confirmation of a second scumgroup via a crosskill or similar*), I'll switch - until then, I'll keep pushing for your death.

As for "off alot": I know damn well I'm usually a fairly weak player in early game compared to lategame (though I'm probably fairly skilled by objective standards - I'd have to do a detailed study to know for certain, though). A game where I catch the entire scum team D1 (i.e, Inventor Mafia) is an extremely good game for me.

-----

@Merk - The only thing I've seen against Muh from Jupiter mafia is before Exalt died, and afterwards when MM just gives him a FOS but doesn't press hard for it. I'd call it distancing if anything. Like I said, Muh could have been the D1 scapegoat.

I'm cool with a massclaim.

Bussing? When two KNOWN Jupiter Mafiosos (Exalt, MonkeyMan) piled onto swimmer (blindly following yours truly) along with a player (Raivann) I consider extremely likely to be Jupiter Mafia as well? And there was no clear reason for a bus and a strong competing wagon on a known Jupiter Mafioso?

I don't fucking think so. Muh can be part of an unrevealed faction should it exists (which looks doubtful to me at the moment), but I'm pretty damn sure he's not Jupiter. Hell, I'm tempted to call you Jupiter Mafia based on this post alone.

-----

I've not been paying too close attention to this game lately honestly, I really don't have any significant scum reads. I need to give this game a closer read sometime.

Hey look, more IIoA from Vaya!

Only the existence of Raivann is keeping me from wanting your head on a noose ASAP.

-----

Massclaim:

After thinking it over, I'm proposing the following:

Raivann claims first (largest wagon, I want him to claim), I claim last (halfclaimed already and semi-confirmed town). If majority of other players want it, force muh to claim second (I abstain from the issue). For other players, follow the randomized list generated below (when Slicey's turn comes up, consider skipping him to second-to-last depending on whether there's any sign of a replacement):

(removing 13. Tarhalindur and 14. Raivann)

1. Vaya
2. zoraster
3. xRECKONERx
4. Riceballtail
5. Socrates
6. Wickedestjr
7. muh316
8. Kise
9. Trumpet of Doom
10. Merkabah
11. Pads
12. Slicey

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d11

1 11-Sided Dice: (11) = 11

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d7

1 7-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Tarhalindur]

Let's see... that would give us the following order (procedure: count dice result number down on the list of players, remove that player from the list, repeat until all spaces assigned):

starting list

1. Vaya
2. zoraster
3. xRECKONERx
4. Riceballtail
5. Socrates
6. Wickedestjr
7. muh316
8. Kise
9. Trumpet of Doom
10. Merkabah
11. Pads
12. Slicey

claim order

14. Raivann
10. Merkabah
12. Slicey
7. muh316
1. Vaya
3. xRECKONERx
2. zoraster
5. Socrates
11. Pads
4. Riceballtail
6. Wickedestjr
8. Kise
9. Trumpet of Doom
13. Tarhalindur

[Tarhalindur]

Though I really wish Rai had gotten a later spot.

Is there a non-role-related reason for this?

[Tarhalindur]

Though I really wish Rai had gotten a later spot.

Is there a non-role-related reason for this?

Wait, I don't know why I said that. I honestly have no clue. I've been drunk for about 48 hours straight celebrating my 21st birthday, so there's no telling what would have been going through my mind.

Expecting a VT claim from Rai, but we'll see what happens.

Major, MAJOR scumpoints for you right here - that post is reading as BLATANT scumbuddy coaching to me.

In fact, given that you ALSO made that "wish Rai had gotten a later spot" comment just a little bit ago... pending a reread, you've just convinced me that you're Jupiter Mafia. Right now, I'd be nearly as happy to lynch you as I would be to lynch Raivann.

HoS: xRECKONERx

Merk, your claim is next.

[Tarhalindur]

Slicey's a lost cause and we'll probably have to lynch him for it. Problem is, muh is next on the list and suddenly MIA (if he stays off the thread for >12 hours, I'd say move on and put him firmly back on the list of players that need lynching). Vaya comes immediately after that (if we have to skip him, HE goes on the autolynch list as well).

After that, the next person to claim is you, xRECKOMERx... so if we really need to speed up the massclaim, you're up next. (Mind you, given your behavior towards Raivann and BS excuse for it I'd be pretty happy to see an earlier xRECKONERx claim...)

[Tarhalindur]

Kay.

I'm a

Bulletproof Townie

, and to my knowledge, I have not been shot yet. The Role PM doesn't state whether or not I'll be notified if I'm shot.

Bulletproof Townie is an autolynch claim (I'm pretty sure you're not lying about being bulletproof - that would be stupid - but bulletproof townie claims usually come from bulletproof Mafiosos).

Unvote, Vote: xRECKONERx

I am Town Jack of all Trades
and should I mention my investigateion yet.

I don't think you understand the meaning of the word "massclaim". You need to claim which 1-shots you have, and definitely any results.

[Tarhalindur]

1143 = coaching?

I'll hold judgment on this until muh finishes fullclaiming.

[Tarhalindur]

Uhh... you guys have no basis to not believe my claim.

Uh, yes we do - Bulletproof Townie claims usually come from NK-immune Mafiosos instead of actual Bulletproof Townies.

Moreover, your insistence that we are supposed to believe your claim unless something says otherwise is scummy beyond belief - I'd lynch you for that sentence ALONE.

The Godfather is already dead - there wouldn't be two un-NK-able mafiosos.

Sorry, but no. Last I checked, the Jupiter Mafia Godfather wasn't NK-immune (unless, of course, you're claiming that *your faction's* godfather is NK immune...). Moreover, even if Exalt HAD been NK immune you could still be SK (UNK SK is fairly common).

I'm BP townie - if you don't believe me, have muh use his investigation on me.

Muh has been indicating that he's already used his investigation.

Congrats, you've just moved firmly above your probable buddy Raivann on my "needs to die" list.

[Tarhalindur]

Merk, you forgot a few: 4) Muh and xRECKONERx are scum partners and Muh is bailing out his buddy; 5) xRECKONERx is investigation-immune SK with a single NK immunity. That said, double Tracker and Exalt's flip make anything with Muh getting a false result on xRECKONERx EXTREMELY unlikely - either xRECKONERx is town or muh is scum.

I should note that Muh STILL hasn't claimed exactly what his one-shots are and what his night actions were; I WILL want muh's head on a platter with a noose around its neck if he continues to stall on claiming those (JoaT's a little too common of a scum claim for me to trust completely).

----

Remaining claim list:

*Slicey* (when replacement first reads thread)
Vaya? (given his lurking, consider skipping ala Slicey)
zoraster
Socrates
Pads
Riceballtail
Wickedestjr
Kise
Trumpet of Doom
13. Tarhalindur

[Tarhalindur]

Ruh-roh, that muh post had better not be what I think it is...

Two other questions for muh, just in case:
1) Does your investigation tell you alignment (Town/Mafia/Neutral/etc.) or just whether or not your target is Mafia or not? (The latter means xRECKONERx is NOT cleared.)
2) Could you have used your 1-shot doc to self-protect?

[Tarhalindur]

Remaining list is Socrates/Pads/Wicked/Kise/Trumpet/Tarhalindur... I'd say at this point, with the exception of myself*, just claim when you next see the thread.

Still want muh to clarify whether his one-shot doc could self-protect (though PGO as a claimed 1-shot is a point in his favor - that's a rare ability to see anywhere, and I'm not sure why muh would claim it like that if he didn't have it).

Speaking of that PGO - I'd like to hear the kill flavor on it.

* - I'm halfclaimed anyways (Town Prison Guard; Prison Guards targeted Glork N1, RayFrost N2, and [REDACTED] N3). The [REDACTED] is the important part - given who I sent it at, I'm pretty sure I blocked the N3 Shot kill.

[Tarhalindur]

PS, Raivann's claim is still b/s, and he's scum.

Tar, do you plan on revealing the redacted target after the massclaim?

Yes, obviously. (That redacted target is a significant part of the reason WHY I pushed for massclaim.)

[Tarhalindur]

Slicey and Tar are the only ones left.

Tar, I'd go ahead, since we're still waiting on a Slicey replacement.

I concur... and here's the bombshell. Specifically, I noticed something off about the Prison Guard ability (now publically listed in the thread from the D3 morning reveals) after Devestation's flip:

Glork,

Town Vigilante

, was shot in the head night 2.
Devestation,

Town Prison Guard

, was brutally murdered night 2.

It is now day 3.

You are a Town Vigilante

You win when all anti-town threats are eliminated.

Abilities:

Vigilante Kill: During the night, you may choose to target one player. This player, barring external influences, will be killed that night. Your kill flavor is "sliced open".

You are a Town Prison Guard

Your fellow prison guard is XXXXXX. You do not know this player’s alignment.

You win when all anti-town threats are eliminated.

Abilities:

Neighbor: During the night, you may talk with player XXXXXX.

Shared Jailkeeper: Also during the night, you and your neighbor are allowed to choose one person for one of you to target. You must decide who does the targeting and who the target is. If your ability resolves, the person you targeted will be both protected and roleblocked that night.

Precidence: If two different targets are submitted, the last one I receive will be the one that resolves.

I realized during the middle of D2 that, by the literal wording of the role PM, there was nothing preventing the Prison Guards from jailing one of their own. I fired a question by Xyl, expecting that there was some kind of screwup involved and that self-protecting wasn't allowed... and was royally startled when he responded back saying that as far as HE could tell there was nothing preventing the Prison Guards from self-protecting.

That made the choice for last night obvious. The player I considered most likely to be killed and the strongest surviving likely (from my perspective certainly) town analyst* were the same player - myself. I self-protected.

My self-protect last night is the reason I'm so sure that Raivann's post earlier today was a scum slip - I think he KNOWS that his Mafia's kill (shot) targeted me last night, and genuinely thought I was scum because it failed. I've seen that scum psychology before - remember that TVOD post from Random Mafia 3 quoted earlier? In Random 3 I was a Jailkeeper who got protected from the N1 Mafia kill... two successive Mafiosos, including TVOD, proceeded to claim rolebased on me under pressure, presumably under the assumption that I was UNK SK.

Now, in case somebody's wondering: Why not protect a Prison Guard earlier? 1): Because I didn't notice that aspect of the role until D3, after Devestation was dead. 2): Even if I had noticed the self-protect function earlier, I at least wouldn't have used it before last night - I didn't think either Prison Guard was in severe danger of NK until last night (mistakenly in the case of N2, as it turns out), I mistrusted my partner, and there were several good candidates for jailing outside the Prison Guards (Glork, RayFrost... Merk was on that list N1 but dropped off later).

* - Remember, I've had misgivings about Merk for a while now; he's fairly low on my jailing list as a result (don't want to block a crosskill...). If I hadn't been able to self-protect last night, I'd probably have protected zoraster (fairly good analyst, seemed reasonably pro-town).

[Tarhalindur]

1) Why push for massclaim? I figured (correctly, it would seem) that we were nearly out of unrevealed power roles, and I was hoping somebody (probably scum late in the order) would screw up and claim a protective ability on me (drawing a Tarhalindur semi-counterclaim). Unfortunately, I made it a little too obvious that I thought I had blocked the kill, and muh claimed a 1-shot protective role.

2) On setup: Muh's role sounds believable to me. It's the kind of role I'd put in the game (a bunch of 1-shots of ability types otherwise not in the game).

xRECKONERx: Given the sheer number of kills and lack of other abilities, bulletproof sounds like an SK ability to me... doubly so since this setup keeps reminding me of Mafia 87.

Other than that, I'll bet we're looking at either 17-5-1 (Jupiter Mafia consisting of a godfather and 4 goons) or 15-4-4 (each Mafia consisting of a Godfather and three goons). In the former case, xRECKONERx is likely SK; in the latter, xRECKONERx is likely town.

Other than that, there's no player whose alignment is obvious from the claims... I see no reason to lynch anyone over Raivann right now (xRECKONERx *would* be except muh is clearing him).

Unvote, Vote: Raivann

[Tarhalindur]

Raivann wagon: Yes, please.*

Vote: Raivann

No points for guessing who I protected last night! (Hint: I still don't see a good reason not to self-protect.)

* - that new kill method is a concern (multiscum is back into play), but I can't rule out that it's from Jupiter Mafia sending a new player to kill.

[Tarhalindur]

You know, I'd managed to forget that RayFrost tracked MonkeyMan to SensFan N1.

Damn. That means we CAN all-but-rule out Jupiter Mafia changing its kill method last night (MM HAS to have made the N1 kill, shot appeared N1 and N2, and MM can't have made the N2 kill), and therefore THAT is the final piece of evidence needed to prove the game state - we ARE dealing with multiscum. Specifically, multiscum AND SK, the worst-case scenario.

VOTE:Tar

New kill flavor? I'm convinced of a second scum faction now. My guess is Tar is highly interested in self-protection for being the last Jupiter. This may be way out on a limb, but I refuse to dismiss the idea just because Tar may very well know there's a second team and can fake it.

1) I fail to see how you could possibly consider this vote justified. If your argument is that only scum would self-protect, that's blatantly wrong: a) there are NO players other than myself that I consider worthy of jailing (Merkabah was near the top of my "SK or second scum faction" list even BEFORE a third faction was revealed, xRECKONERx is my top choice for SK and has bulletproof kill shields at any rate, others are vanilla and/or don't read as particularly strong analysts), b) jailing any player other than myself risks blocking a crosskill (important at this stage), c) I'm a fairly obvious kill target for any scum for the rest of the game, and d) I'm at my best in an endgame situation.

You're trying to attack me for a null tell. That's not good town play there.

2) More importantly, I'm pretty sure you just made a HUGE slip there.

Everybody, take a close look at what's implied in RBT's reasoning.

- RBT specifically thinks I'm Jupiter Mafia. Not unrevealed faction (the conclusion I would expect from a townie, considering that my D3 play could be considered Selective Scumhunting), but rather Jupiter Mafia. In fact, RBT doesn't even CONSIDER the possibility that I'm unrevealed faction.

Why? Because he's unrevealed faction and KNOWS that I'm not unrevealed faction.

- Moreover, RBT claims that I could be the "last Jupiter". That implies that he's concluded that there's three members of the Jupiter Mafia, discarding the alternate possibilities of two four-man teams(admittedly a fairly unlikely occurrence given at least one Mafia Godfather that there's an SK as well, but not unheard of - assume that xRECKONERx is town, and two four-man teams is comparable to Mafia 86) or teams of uneven size (while Jupiter would probably be the smaller team given a Godfather, that is by no means a certainty).

Besides... while it's possible that RBT could have made a reasoned judgment call that there had to be three Mafiosos per faction, he shows no sign of doing so. Indeed, he doesn't even MENTION the possibility that there is more than one surviving Jupiter Mafioso. Why?

I'll bet it's because RBT's own scum faction (unrevealed, as per above) has three members, and he's assumed that the other faction has three members as well.

----

Biggest issue of the moment: the confirmed existence of a third faction throws a potential monkey wrench in the Raivann lynch. I'm pretty sure Raivann is Jupiter Mafia... and Jupiter Mafia is currently the smaller of two factions.

Worst-case scenario would be four members of each Mafia faction and Raivann somehow being town, in which case lynching Jupiter Mafia potentially results in unrevealed faction winning overnight (3x separate successful kills on non-unrevealed players). Guaranteeing that this doesn't happen would require me to successfully find and block one of the scum kill targets and/or the SK - an outcome by no means guaranteed.

I'm not currently sure whether this is something to worry about (probably not given that I'm pretty sure RBT is scum), but it's something to keep in mind.

Current thoughts on who's what:
Raivann - Jupiter Mafia
RBT - Unrevealed
Merkabah - Unrevealed/SK. Leaning the latter based on this post:

<snip>

For that matter, how do you know he was actually killed for acting scummy? The only people who would actually know is/are the one/ones who killed him.

OMG, you are so good at scum hunting. You caught me. I killed Devestation. His hats just looked too delicious to pass up.

<snip>

I should probably have noticed the possible sarcastic confession (see for example: Kaleidoscope, Mafia 67) a LOT sooner than I did. ("Brutally murdered" just about has to be the SK kill, and Devestation was "brutally murdered").

[Tarhalindur]

How do you know it's 4:3:1:16? Why not possibly 3:3:1 or 4:4:1 for scum?

Tar is specifically Jupiter Mafia because Tar only wants to hunt Jupiters, but is incessantly focused on Rai, who is probably scum, but not Jupiter IMO. The Jupiters probably tried to kill Reck last night, testing the claim. Tar was the primary pusher against Reck being just a BP townie. I suspect that town is probably equal or outnumbered by now, so those of you who haven't need to put your game faces on.

Also, way to follow like a sheep Reck. You're probably unrevealed GF btw.

A) Let's take a look at the craplogic here, people:

1) Look at the logic here. "Tarhalindur only wants to hunt Jupiters, therefore he is Jupiter Mafia" (sure, RBT explains it by claiming that he doesn't think Raivann - a player that I believe is Jupiter Mafia - is Jupiter Mafia; that doesn't change the fact that RBT specifically believes that I'm Jupiter Mafia). Now let's set aside the fact that I consider the premise bullshit for a minute* and take a look at the internal logic of RBT's argument. Or, rather, internal craplogic, because RBT uses this argument to conclude I'm Jupiter Mafia when the logical conclusion of the argument that RBT is using should be that I'm

unrevealed faction

.

Why? Take a look at the premise ("Tarhalindur only wants to hunt Jupiters"). RBT is accusing me of Selective Scumhunting (a Standard Tell, though the definition is a bit out of date).

"players who focus on a specific scum faction or factions in a game with multiple known scum factions are likely to be scum themselves".

The problem here is simple. In a multiscum game, each scum faction has strong incentive to try to get scum from the OTHER faction lynched. Therefore the logical conclusion for someone who believes that I've been focusing on the Jupiter Mafia to such a degree as to constitute Selective Scumhunting is that I am from the unrevealed faction.

However, RBT doesn't even MENTION the possibility that I'm unrevealed faction (the most thought he gives it is a curt dismissal on the grounds that I think Raivann is Jupiter Mafia when he's concluded otherwise). This makes NO SENSE for a town RBT.

Indeed, the only reason I can see for RBT not considering the possibility of me being unrevealed faction is if RBT KNOWS that I'm not unrevealed faction. And

the only way I can see why RBT would know that I'm not unrevealed faction is if RBT is a member of the unrevealed faction himself, and thus knows that I'm not one of his scumbuddies

.

(* - I find the claim that I've been exclusively focusing on the Jupiter Mafia questionable at best, since I've been pointing out several players as "if there's an unrevealed faction, he/she's in it" since shortly after the Exalt flip. I've been loathe to act on it before today because a) multiscum tends to out itself given time/crosskills and b) lynching a player you're sure isn't part of a revealed Mafia faction because you think he might be part of an unrevealed faction is STUPID unless you absolutely need to test for the existence of multiscum and have mislynches to spare, because if there ISN'T a second scum faction you're almost certainly mislynching.)

2) Claiming that xRECKONERx was a likely Jupiter kill last night is, again, craplogic. First, why the hell would a Mafia faction - ESPECIALLY the faction that's almost certainly smaller and needs crosskill - choose to possibly waste a kill on a claimed bulletproof who's investigated innocent when it could be trying to crosskill a member of the second faction? Second... there's two missing kills N3, and unless I see an edit indicating that RayFrost was killed by multiple levels that means that it's 90% likely that xRECKONERx's kill shield has been burned out since N3.

See, I fired off a question to Xyl shortly after day started, asking whether my protection could stop multiple kills. Xyl concluded yes... but the reasoning he gave me and the phrasing he used STRONGLY suggest that he hadn't actually had to deal with that until now. If he hasn't had to deal with the possibility of me getting multikilled until I asked about it today, then that means that I only got targeted with one kill N3... and the only other place a kill could have been blocked that night (barring an UNK scumbag who didn't claim UNK, a faction failing to kill, or similar) is xRECKONERx.

Since xRECKONERx probably ate a kill N3 and I don't see a reason why the Jupiter Mafia would potentially waste a kill by targeting a claimed BP who's unlikely to be unrevealed when they could be trying to kill a player likely to be unrevealed or townie, that means your conclusion that xRECKONERx probably ate a kill last night is total bullshit.

B) Remember what I said about Selective Scumhunting, people? A player who specifically hunts for one faction is likely to be scum, and probably from the rival faction?

Now surely it hasn't escaped anyone's attention that RBT - a player who's been completely convinced of multiscum for some time - thinks that I'm Jupiter and that Raivann is scum from a different faction (ergo unrevealed)... and is pushing a Tar wagon over the Raivann wagon? Without offering explanation for that choice?

As if we needed further evidence that Riceballtail is, in fact, a member of the unrevealed faction himself.

I've been holding off on voting RBT because I was considering whether we might be better served getting rid of the Jupiter Mafia kill by lynching Raivann (since RBT's faction is likely to have three scum in it, and assuming symmetrical factions that would mean one surviving Jupiter Mafioso). After thinking it over - not worth it.

Unvote, Vote: Riceballtail

While I'm here, might as well ask this question publically:

Mod: What is your policy on using public information (posts/death-revealed alignment) from games that should be finished but are instead ongoing due to effective mod abandonment? (There's a technically ongoing game I was in that's been in twilight with three players alive for over three weeks now but where the end scene hasn't been posted due to the mod vanishing for over two weeks, and I'd really like to haul it out as evidence sooner rather than later.)

[Tarhalindur]

Perhaps you could have waited until, you know, we had had some discussion today....just a thought for next time.

Socrates unvoted RBT, so I think we're at L-1 still.

For those too lazy to go back and look at my earlier claim, targets so far:

N1: Glork
N2: RayFrost
N3: Tarhalindur
N4: Tarhalindur

Considering that Glork is a kill magnet (see: N2) and RayFrost had claimed Tracker by N2, I think it's perfectly possible that I stopped the unrevealed kill N1 and N2.

Pads: We know from kill methods ("shot", specifically) that factions have specific factional kill methods. Nobody's claimed a way for a new kill method to appear, and stranger things have happened re: missing kills.

It has been PROVEN by GAME STATE (3x kill methods that can't be accounted for via claims + we know that all members of the same faction have the same kill method via "shot" kill method and N1 RayFrost track) that there is a second Mafia faction. The fact that you're still denying this is a MASSIVE point against you.

[Tarhalindur]

swimmer4lyfe(5)

- Tarhalindur, Empking, Exalt, MonkeyMan576, RayFrost

What do you know? Two of these guys are mafia, and one was a tracker! What about the rest of them? This group seems to be positively rife with special roles. I think we should look carefully at Tarhalindur and Empking (Now Trumpet of Doom). Especially Tarhalindur.

Craplogic indicative of a scum mindset, and rolefishing to boot. if not for the part of this comment about special roles, it would be a decent point, but as it is you're a) BLATANTLY rolefishing (hunting for special roles? Gee, I wonder why a scum would do so - especially a Mafioso of the unrevealed faction trying to out power roles and other factions), and b) trying to accuse me of being scum for what is by YOUR OWN PREMISE a null tell (I claimed Prison Guard a while back, pay attention scumbag).

Also note that you completely ignore that the existence of a second scumgroup has been all-but-proven... why thanks for claiming unrevealed faction!

Tarhalindur has always voted with either Empking/Trumpet of Doom or MonkeyMan. After reading the entire thread, I can't find any reason not to and can find plenty of reasons to

vote: Tarhalindur

1) Uh, this isn't just craplogic, it's an outright LIE. I voted MonkeyMan D1 (shortly after the Exalt modkill) on the grounds that he was an extremely likely partner of Exalt (a conclusion which, I should note, proved to be absolutely correct); while I unvoted MM after his tracker claim, I was very quick to hop on his wagon again after the D2 morning scene and MM's subsequent breakdown. Neither MonkeyMan nor Empking EVER voted MM.

Likewise, I voted for Annachie D3 (partly as a deadline lynch as my preferred lynch wasn't going to happen, partly because I thought he was scum); MM was dead at the time, and Empking did not join that wagon.

Of the wagons I did share with one or more of {MM, Empking}, one was a deadline wagon (joining is a null tell) and another was a wagon I started and was then barned by multiple Jupiter Mafiosos (and Empking). I fail to see how either of those provide good grounds for calling me scum.

2) Even setting aside the fact that you're lying out your ass and trying to call null tells scum tells, this is STILL craplogic. You're accusing me of being scum for voting with a living player whose alignment is unrevealed and whose player slot I am fairly sure is town. Do I even need to explain why that's complete and total bullshit?

3) I don't see how simple vote correlation consists "plenty of reasons" to vote a player. Especially when I just proved that claim of "correlation" is bullshit.

Oh yeah, one other important fact: Assuming only one surviving Jupiter Mafioso, then if you are scum you MUST be from the unrevealed faction.

I'll need to think it over to be sure, but I'm seriously considering voting you over RBT - because there's no way you're town, and you're even more likely than RBT to be from the unrevealed faction.

Question to the other players: If I were to call the unrevealed faction as {RBT, Pads, dana, maybe someody else}, how accurate do you think I'd be?

Pretty close, I think. The main possible error I can see is that Merkabah or Wicked (or Socrates as an outside shot, though I'll admit that's based mainly on gut ATM) might be unrevealed scum instead of Pads. (If four scum in the unrevealed faction, then I'd guess both Wicked and Pads are in it and Merk is the SK.)

Speaking of Wicked:

Wait a second. Hasn't Pads shown that xRx is confirmed town? Some players seem to still believe that he is SK. I'm confused.

As for the setup, I've been thinking of another possibility. What if the other kill is due to a cult group. Don't cult recruiters have the choice to either recruit or kill during the night. Maybe they chose to recruit the first three nights and now don't want to take any more risks of accidentally picking scum during the night so have decided to kill. I don't know how common cults are in large normals, but the situation seems to point towards that possibility. Thoughts?

Wicked, if it wasn't for the existence of a few other players (RBT, Raivann, and now dana), I would vote you for this post ALONE.

Let's see how bad it is:

- IIoA (no attempt to hunt for who might be in such a hypothetical cult)
- Fearmongering about a possible new scumgroup (STRONG unrevealed tell)
- Fearmongering about a role that is PATENTLY not normal (as FIRMLY evidenced by Mafia 92) in a Normal game (so trying to stir up concern about a possibility that CANNOT EXIST).

That combination up there? It's LYNCHWORTHY. And your head is going to meet the noose on a future day if I have anything to say about it.

We don't know that at all.

I've seen kill flavors distributed in three different ways.

a) Each individual who is a member of a mafia has their own kill flavor.
b) Within a given mafia, each member has the same kill flavor.
c) Within a given mafia, each different role has its own kill flavor.

Uh, Pads... yes we do.

Option A can be discarded for reasons even you admit. Option c) can be discarded because this is a Normal game and that is not a Normal mechanic by any means (as in "I will complain directly to EmpTiger postgame if this is the case")

That leaves B. B implies multiple factions.

Have a nice day.

[Tarhalindur]

Unless I missed something, Raivann just hammered.

And by "hammered" I mean "claimed scum".

[Tarhalindur]

Setup conclusion: The largest remaining Mafia faction has at most three surviving members.

SK: If you are in danger of being lynched, it is STRONGLY in your best interests to claim your actual role (since we CANNOT afford to lynch a member of a smaller faction). You should even consider claiming NOW - while that action risks crosskill (unless your name is xRECKONERx), it also increases your chances of winning the game (since it increases our chances of lynching from whichever group has three members left; 3 surviving members is implied by both of the most plausible setup possibilities (16-3-3-1, 17-5-1)).

In other news, Raivann literally claimed scum with that hammer yesterday - I'm 90% sure he's from the larger group now given that the larger faction had the stronger motivation to quickhammer, but I'm not yet sure I'm willing to stake the game on that conclusion.

HoS with intent to vote: Raivann

[Tarhalindur]

I don't like Tar's 1219, where he says he thinks Raivann is Jupiter, while RBT & Merk are unrevealed.

Given both of RBT & Merk's flips, either he was just

way

off-base, or he's scum

.

I'd also like to point out that RBT was the only one to question Tar's alignment based on his Prison Guard claim. While I'm also partially guilty in the RBT lynch, Tar pushed for it pretty hard.

I think he's likely scum, but we can leave him be for now, because he HAS to be lynched since he'll just keep self-protecting as Prison Guard. But that can be dealt with tomorrow or the next day.

Are you seriously attacking me for what you just fucking admitted is a null tell?

Well, I guess we know who the terrible scumhunters are. ANYONE who said they were convinced I was scum! I was one of four people not to vote for the lynched townie Riceballtail and the only one to actively vote with Riceballtail. The only reason I wasn't NK'ed was because the Mafia figured I'd be lynched today anyway.

1) Hey look at the obvious Mafioso who stayed away from the lynch wagon yesterday just so he could say "I told you so" (since he would have known that RBT wasn't part of his faction).
2) Hey look at the guy claiming that he's so right that he'd be a NK target... when the player the probable SK killed was a player that's been on my unrevealed radar for several days now and the player killed by the second kill method was a strong player who I'm pretty sure was onto at least one and probably two members of the larger faction. Yeah, that's just craplogic.

On the other hand... I don't think we should deal with you today.

The fact of the matter is that RAIVANN QUICKHAMMERED YESTERDAY. Remember the following three posts?

Vote:Tarhalindur

"Change we can believe in."

I know i havent been posting much but I just finished with my fantasy football season and I'm a little rusty.
Tars writing novels and anyone writing that much must have something to prove.
Obviousy he's trying to appear "townie".
Evil walks amongst us and his name is Tar.

unvote, Vote:Rbt

Even setting aside the fact that his "case" on me is craplogic (I'm scum because I post too long? When my normal playstyle includes making fairly long posts and I'm pretty sure I tend to post longer as town? WTF?)... Raivann makes it clear that he thinks I am most likely to be scum, then hammers a different player with no reasoning given WITHIN A MINUTE OF MAKING A POST EXPLAINING WHY HE THINKS I AM SCUM.

There is literally NO REASON for Raivann to do that as town - if he thought that I'm more likely to be scum than RBT, he SHOULDN'T HAVE HAMMERED RBT.

Moreover, there is literally NO REASON for Raivann to do that unless he thinks his scum faction will win the game through that quickhammer (either through getting three kills overnight or through drawing attention away from his buddies). Hammering like that is SUICIDAL as a lone scum (SK, or Jupiter Mafia if the setup is multiscum).

Ergo, Raivann is almost certain to be a member of the scum faction with the most surviving members (the only possible exception I see involves two surviving Jupiter Mafiosos and three surviving unrevealed faction members). If he is Jupiter Mafia, there probably isn't a second faction (yes, I consider that a possibility at this point; if there's only Jupiter Mafia, Pads is in it); otherwise, he's unrevealed.

I could still go with a dana lynch - I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point, and given his predecessor's inactivity he shouldn't be from a faction with one member surviving. But I'm more sure about Raivann.

Vote: Raivann

[Tarhalindur]

The reason I hammered was to prove a point.
How many townie's have you forced a mislynch on in a row now?
Tar is obvscum trying to dazzle us with his bullshit.

Vote:Tarhalindur

This post is beyond craplogic.

1) If this was Raivann's actual reasoning, why didn't he mention this at the time that he hammered? Or at any point before I started pressing him on it today? For that matter, why did he lurk until I started pressing the case on him instead of, you know,

scumhunting

?

2) He's trying to claim that I've "forced mislynches" on players? BULLSHIT. I've been the driving force behind at most two of the lynch wagons - RBT (for reasons explained yesterday) and MonkeyMan (who, I should note, turned out to be scum). No other players whose lynch I have pushed strongly at ANY point have been lynched (muh was modkilled, and I'd concluded that he was town shortly before the modkill came; Cyberbob was a deadline lynch based on Merk's push and the fact that my previous top suspect (MM) had claimed Tracker; Annachie was a deadline lynch based solely on the fact that I couldn't get you lynched; Merk was SK-killed).

3) Think about what he's claiming. If you assume that Raivann is town and take his words at face value, he was willing to hammer a player he thought was town in order to "prove" a claim (that isn't even true) despite the fact that lynching a town player carried a strong risk of CAUSING TOWN (and thus Raivann, were he actually town) TO LOSE THE GAME.

That would be stupidity on a titanic scale - a muh-sized scale, even.

But it wasn't stupidity from Raivann's perspective, because Raivann is scum who thought that he could either win the game overnight or bullshit his way out of getting lynched for the hammer today.

[Tarhalindur]

Tar - what lynches have you supported/trumpeted that WEREN'T on townies?

Counting only players whose alignment has been revealed - MonkeyMan alone. (I'll freely admit that I misread Exalt early.) All of the others flipped town (RBT, Cyberbob, Devestation, Annachie, muh*, Merk) or have not yet flipped (Raivann, danakillsu, and to a lesser extent Pads, zoraster, and Wicked).

Of ALL the players whose wagons I've supported, I'd say that I've only trumpeted four lynches at most: swimmer/muh (admittedly town, but a case I eventually abandoned), MonkeyMan (scum), Raivann (has not flipped), RBT (town). Annachie and Cyberbob were deadline wagons trumpeted by Merk, Devestation and Merk were secondary cases which drew SK kills rather than lynches. The rest are secondary cases who haven't flipped yet (though I'll note I'm nearly as suspicious of dana as I am of Raivann).

I'm not seeing how the wagons I've supported are supposed to constitute anything more than a null tell, considering that town can make mistakes (and certainly has in this game, as I distinctly remember a known townie (Merk) trumpeting two of our mislynches) and that my primary suspect for over HALF THE GAME (Raivann) has still not flipped (nobody would follow the wagon D3, muh got himself modkilled D4, I thought Raivann was in the smaller faction D5). In fact, I'm starting to wonder why the hell this line of argument is continuing when it is so obviously crap.

* - note: If not for the muh modkill, I would have firmly placed him in the town category following the massclaim.

[Tarhalindur]

1) All (especially you, Pads): The reason why I consider the Raivann case actionable today is because Raivann quickhammered yesterday (and BLATANTLY so, given that he had shown no suspicion of RBT prior to that vote). I don't see ANY good reason for a lone scum to make such a hammer; he risks losing the game (if there are four members remaining in either group) by doing so, and is likely to get lynched for the quickhammer (thus losing the game) regardless.

Raivann would have had a very good reason for quickhammering RBT, however, if he were of the largest faction - he had a shot at winning the game if he did so.

As such, I've discarded my belief that Raivann must be Jupiter Mafia. Up until yesterday, I believed that he was... but the balance of evidence now argues that he is from the unrevealed faction (unless there's only one Mafia faction after all, in which case he is in fact Jupiter), and thus failing to lynch Raivann is a stupid idea.

AT ALL NON-UNREVEALED PLAYERS: IF I CONSIDER MY PRIOR CONCLUSION (THAT RAIVANN MUST BE JUPITER) DEBUNKED BY MORE RECENT EVIDENCE, WHY THE

FUCK

ARE YOU STILL BLINDLY ACCEPTING IT? DO YOU

WANT

TO LOSE THE GAME?

------

On setup arguments that there can't be two town Prison Guards:

1) I've believed ever since D3 that the ability to self-protect was an oversight on Seraphim's part.

2) Assume that both myself and Reckoner are town. If we do, we have one of the following scenarios:

- 1x Mafia A Goon, 1x Mafia A Godfather, 1x Mafia A Goon or Minor Power Role
- 1x Mafia B Goon, 1x Mafia B Godfather, 1x Mafia B Goon or Minor Power Role
- 1x Serial Killer

- 2x Tracker
- 2x Prison Guards (functionally a jailkeeper and backup jailkeeper with slight buffing; self-protect may or may not have been intended)
- 1x Vig
- 1x JoaT
- 1x Bulletproof Townie (unknown shots)
- 9x Vanilla Townie

OR:

- 1x Mafia Godfather, 1x Unknown Mafia Power Role (Tracker-framer?)*, 3x Mafia Goon
- 1x Serial Killer

- 2x Tracker
- 2x Prison Guards (functionally a jailkeeper and backup jailkeeper with slight buffing; self-protect may or may not have been intended)
- 1x Vig
- 1x JoaT
- 1x Bulletproof Townie (unknown shots)
- 10x Vanilla Townie

* - to explain the new kill method; though it pains me to say it, Pads' conjecture about kill methods based on role type might have been right after all.

Compare to some other setups:

Webcomic Wars (now finished by word of Gorrad, though he hasn't updated its front post), with 25 players:

- 1x UNK Mafia A Godfather, 1x Mafia A 2-shot Roleblocker, 1x Mafia A Goon
- 1x UNK Mafia B Godfather, 1x Mafia B 2-shot Strongman (unstoppable kill), 1x Mafia B Goon
- 2x Neutral Hitman Team (have NK, need only eliminate 4 players to win)

- 3x Town Cop (faction-specific, comparable to Trackers)
- 1x Town Doctor
- 1x Town Roleblocker
- 1x Town Mason Recruiter (can recruit the Doctor, Roleblocker, and Vig)
- 1x Town Vig
- 1x Town Hider
- 1x Town Supersaint
- 8x Vanilla Townies

While the Mafias in Webcomic Wars were somewhat more powerful than any likely faction in this game, keep in mind that Webcomic Wars had 2 more players (a net of one additional town player) and significantly more town power than we've seen here - THREE town roles that can stop kills (on the same night, even!), THREE investigative roles on a power level similar to that of the tracker, a Vig, and enough miscellaneous town power roles to make more than 50% of the Town power roles.

Now, consider case study 2: Mafia 86 (24 players)

4x Mafia A Goons
4x Mafia B Goons
1x Serial Killer
1x Cult Leader

1x Town Cop (Sane)
1x Town Tracker
1x Town Watcher
1x Town Vig
1x Town Doctor
1x Town Roleblocker
8x Vanilla Townies

Again, a similar level of town power (Cop is considerably more powerful than Tracker, there's a Tracker and a Watcher, plus the Vig, Doctor, and Roleblocker). The Mafia is larger, but it lacks any kind of power roles whatsoever - Godfather might be worth the loss of a goon.

If we assume that Seraphim either missed the self-protect function of the Prison Guards or decided that the sharing of control over the jailing made it balanced (or even just decided that jailing wasn't very strong in a setup with multiple factions), either of these setups is balanced roughly the same as this one seems to be. For an example of a similar single-faction game, look at Mafia 76 (23? players):

1x Mafia Godfather, 1x Mafia Roleblocker, 2x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Traitor
1x Serial Killer

1x Town Cop (Sane)
1x Town Doctor
1x Town Vig (1-shot)
1x Town Tracker
1x Town Bodyguard
1x Town Miller
11x Vanilla Townie

While it doesn't have quite as many power roles as this game seems to, the ones it does have are comparable in strength (Cop-Doc combo is very, very strong).

The point is, the setup is reasonably balanced even if both myself and Reck are town, especially if you suspect (as I do) that the self-protection function of the Prison Guards was either an oversight or considered balanced out by something else in the roles. As such, Pads's claim that one of {Tar, Reck} must be scum is bupkis.

In fact, by standard balancing me being scum is incredibly unlikely given what we've seen; a scum Prison Guard would tilt the balance of this game significantly towards the scum factions (and unless the faction without the Prison Guard started with more players - which would further imbalance the game against the town - it would also imbalance the game in favor of the faction with the Prison Guard). It doesn't fit with what's so far been a symmetric design.

------

Now, another look at the numbers.

In a best-case scenario (1 faction), four of you are scum of some kind. In the worst case, I'm one of two townies surviving (though this is doubtful since we know Jupiter had a Godfather); I still suspect five scum overall myself.

As such, perhaps the more fruitful question to ask is "who's town?".

From where I'm sitting, I'm town. Reckoner is probably also town, and isn't scum at any rate. Who's number three?

I'd say one of Socrates/Wicked/Pads. Wicked's not Jupiter given his early play, Percy's play here looked a lot like his play in Webcomic Wars* (where he was town), and he seems fairly town. Socrates's confusion looks genuine and his willingness to consider other viewpoints strikes me as town; he's probably not from a faction, at any rate. Pads is the least likely of these three to be town: his choice of targets feels off (I know I'm town, and I've been leaning SK or last Jupiter on zoraster for a while... though his latest posts have been making me reconsider), ToD heavily suspected him of being unrevealed faction yesterday (not a strong point, but something to consider), and there's another factor involved that I'd like to see a few more Pads posts to be sure of.

So, who does that leave as scum?

- Raivann. Almost certainly from the larger faction given the quickhammer yesterday. It's also easy enough to explain why he would have survived even if he's unrevealed faction: if he's unrevealed faction and all other killing factions thought he was Jupiter or SK, then they would have a strong reason not to kill him.
- danakillsu. I'm nearly certain he's scum given his behavior yesterday, and if he's scum he HAS to be from the largest faction (except in the unlikely case of a 4 Jupiter - 3 unrevealed - 1 SK - 15 Town setup) because his predecessor was apparently absent during multiple days where Brutally Murdered/Shot kills occured. (There's an outside shot of him being Jupiter, but only if Slicey was active enough to send in a kill N2.)
- zoraster. He's been lurky as hell of late (usually a single-scum tell)... but I want to see a few more posts from him to be sure. That "why the hesitancy in voting Raivann?" post early today (D6) is giving me pause about Raivann actually being scum...

* - take this with a grain of salt, my correlation-fu has been off lately.

Hmm.

Unvote, HoS: Raivann

to be on the safe side.

Mod: Are "Shot" and "Died of Blood Loss" the same kill method?

[Tarhalindur]

zoraster is at L-1. Somebody needs to unvote. Once that has happened, zoraster needs to tell us if he is SK or not.

More accurately, if zoraster is the only surviving member of his faction, he needs to claim that now.

More later, short on time. (In fact,

V/LA until Sunday

.)

[Tarhalindur]

Back.

For those of you not paying attention: dana just did the SAME thing that Raivann did yesterday (except that he didn't count correctly). We need to lynch one of them today.

In fact, considering the numbers, I find it IMPOSSIBLE that they are not both scum from the largest faction - dana's been Chainsaw Defending Raivann (see: Tar vote yesterday)

In other news:

- zoraster is SK at worst (leaning town, but not sure, mainly because of point 2)
- Pads is probably the third member of the largest faction (mind you, he *could* just be town/SK/last Jupiter whose scumdar is nearly terminally broken... but his choice of people to attack and the ToD kill last night strongly argue towards largest faction to me). I'm not confident enough to lynch him today, however, especially given my next thought...
- Socrates has moved onto my scumdar on the last page or two... the extreme zeal he showed in wanting a zoraster lynch (while possible from a townie) is bugging me, he concluded Raivann was SK instead of Mafia (doesn't sit well with me - Mafioso trying to sneak his scummy-as-hell buddy through the day?), and he's trying to direct the jailkeeper. (Unless, of course, he's from the largest faction and wants to direct the jailkeeper away from the guy the largest faction is killing... in which case he should keep trying to direct me so we can nail him for it later.) I'll judge if/when the point comes for me to use my jailkeep on a player not named Tarhalindur, thank you very much.
- Leaning towards Wicked town at the moment.

Vote: danakillsu

- though if there's a Raivann wagon (you know, on that obvious, obvious scumbag who's only posted since the muh modkill in order to OMGUS me?) in the cards I'll join it in a heartbeat.

[Tarhalindur]

I agree with Socrates about Dana pretty much claiming scum.

Unvote,Vote:danakillsu

A bus?

No matter, I don't want to see ANYONE at L-1 until we're absolutely certain we're lynching them. I'll hop back to dana when we're sure it's time to lynch him.

Unvote, Vote: Raivann
UnHoS, HoS: danakillsu

[Tarhalindur]

Back.

For those of you not paying attention: dana just did the SAME thing that Raivann did yesterday (except that he didn't count correctly). We need to lynch one of them today.

In fact, considering the numbers, I find it IMPOSSIBLE that they are not both scum from the largest faction - dana's been Chainsaw Defending Raivann (see: Tar vote yesterday)

In other news:

- zoraster is SK at worst (leaning town, but not sure, mainly because of point 2)
- Pads is probably the third member of the largest faction (mind you, he *could* just be town/SK/last Jupiter whose scumdar is nearly terminally broken... but his choice of people to attack and the ToD kill last night strongly argue towards largest faction to me). I'm not confident enough to lynch him today, however, especially given my next thought...
- Socrates has moved onto my scumdar on the last page or two... the extreme zeal he showed in wanting a zoraster lynch (while possible from a townie) is bugging me, he concluded Raivann was SK instead of Mafia (doesn't sit well with me - Mafioso trying to sneak his scummy-as-hell buddy through the day?), and he's trying to direct the jailkeeper. (Unless, of course, he's from the largest faction and wants to direct the jailkeeper away from the guy the largest faction is killing... in which case he should keep trying to direct me so we can nail him for it later.) I'll judge if/when the point comes for me to use my jailkeep on a player not named Tarhalindur, thank you very much.
- Leaning towards Wicked town at the moment.

Vote: danakillsu

- though if there's a Raivann wagon (you know, on that obvious, obvious scumbag who's only posted since the muh modkill in order to OMGUS me?) in the cards I'll join it in a heartbeat.

God dammit Tar, you will never stop a mafia kill like that! Directing the Jailkeeper is pro-town when he is so painfully misusing the role. You have completely neutralized yourself as a powerrole since the scum can just ignore you.

If you are going to protect yourself, whatever, but don't fucking announce it in thread! At least leave SOME ambiguity about who you are going to protect.

Tar, are you scum? Because you are certainly acting in a way that helps them.

Socrates, either you haven't run the numbers or you're scum. (And for good or ill, you're an idiot either way, because there's a few factors you don't seem to be considering. The possibility of blocking an SK crosskill on a Mafioso isn't even the most important of them.)

I will NOT elaborate.

[Tarhalindur]

1a) Any NK-immune SK can now claim Serial Killer and force the town into Kingmaker.

I'm still not the SK. If xRECKONERx doesn't claim SK, he's almost certainly not SK either. (And if he *is* SK I'd gladly choose him over the Mafia in the Kingmaker endgame.)

1b) Any SK who is NOT NK-immune is now in a Kingmaker position, since he cannot avoid the Mafia's kill tonight barring the Mafia no-killing (any other players are either functionally NK-immune or Mafiosos). Such an SK can either work with Town to kill off the Jupiter Mafia (by voting for one of whichever two of {Raivann, Socrates, wicked} is not the SK), or can work with the Jupiter Mafia to finish the Town (by voting one of {Tarhalindur, xRECKONERx}).

2) Unless Reck claims SK, I'm pretty sure that the dana flip (wtf?) and the zoraster flip lock alignments EXACTLY:

There is one scum faction. Its surviving members are Socrates and Raivann. There is also a serial killer, and his name is wicked. (Multiple factions can be discarded due to RayFrost's track on MonkeyMan N1.)

[Tarhalindur]

Bah, forgot to vote.

Vote: Socrates

Wicked, the game is in your hands. Town or Mafia, your choice.

[Tarhalindur]

Ugh. I saw that comming from a mile away.

I guess the only worry I have at this point is whether or not Tar is mafia. If tar is town, then lynching me is fine cause then the scum can cross kill tonight and town wins! yay! But, as I site here and actually think about potential scum groups, I realize that that is actually very unlikely. I mean, 2-1-1 at this point is unlikely because that would mean the initial setup of the game had a 4 person scum group, which is just too small to make any sense.

If the setup is 2-2-1 right now, and if Raivann is the SK like I think he is, then Tar HAS to be mafia, from my point of view, but it seemed weird to me that Pad's would bus him yesterday. Then again, a wagon on Tar would have been unlikely to go anywhere so he would have been a safe bus (did Pad's ever actually vote Tar?), and Wickedest never supported a Tar lynch though he kept his options open, which is pretty standard play for a scum to act towards their buddy.

Wickedest is going to claim SK in his next post, as per Tar's coaching, and I imagine that he will vote me.

Hey, Tar, why vote me over Raivann?

1) I consider you a stronger player than Raivann and would prefer the better of the two Mafiosos lynched first.

2) You voted Wicked (a player I find VERY unlikely to be Mafia, given how hard he attacked MonkeyMan D1) in your first post of the day without claiming SK... and the reasoning you used logically requires that you are either wrong about Raivann, wrong about me, wrong about Reck, or scum yourself. (1 surviving Mafioso is impossible, IMO.) One of those possibilities can be discarded from my perspective (I know I'm town), the second can be ignored because if Reck is SK we're screwed anyways, and the last two both imply that you're Mafia, albeit to varying degrees (obv reason for calling Raivann SK is to try to sneak your buddy into endgame, you being scum yourself should be obvious). The last two aren't mutually exclusive, either.

3) Remember this Pads post from yesterday?

As unpopular of a sentiment as this might be (atleast with scumTar), I think Socrates' behavior today is highly indicative of him being town.

If we are at:

4 townies
1 SK
3 scum

...which I believe we are, the scum aren't out of the woods with a mislynch today. They need to survive the SK shot. And 'defending' (and I use the term loosely here) Raivann is not an action designed to endear one to the masses, which is what makes me think he's town speaking his mind. I really don't see him saying that unless he's town, or Raivann's buddy.

And, loathe as I am to admit it, I think he may be right about SK Raivann. Granted, that would be the move for Raivann's scumbuddy, too. But I still like my townSocrates read.

Look at all that juicy Socrates defense coming from a known Mafioso. Hmm, I wonder why he would do that? Couldn't possibly be because you're his buddy and he wanted you alive...

4) Right now, Raivann has a slightly better chance of being SK than you. Slightly.