Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX, go look at Frog Mafia and do an iso read of ckd. Specifically look for loaded questions and accusations of "backtracking". Look familiar? This is ckd's scum playbook.

[Xylthixlm]

Ckd, NO I was not saying he must be vermillion. I was saying that I don't think he's as likely to be cerulean therefore he's less likely to be scum AT ALL. This is plain as day. YOU are adding the assumption that I think Lowell is some sort of scum despite it being DIRECTLY CONTRADICTED BY THE POST.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not gonna meta. Not my style yo'.

However, I do want an answer. What is the connection?

If you're not going to meta, just look for misrepresentations, loaded questions, and trying to paint changes of opinion as "backtracking", together with shouting "he's so obv scum!" for reasons backed by the first three.

[Xylthixlm]

please try to avoid terms like "more likely"..I want a concrete answer today.

You're not going to get it. I approach the game in terms of probabilities and likelihoods. I never rule scenarios out, I just change my estimates. So, if you ask what I was thinking, you're going to get a lot of "more likely" and "probably", because

that's what I was thinking

.

When did you think Lowell was scum?
When did you stop thinking Lowell is scum and why?
What brand (ver or Cer) did you think he was and when.

I thought Lowell had a decent (around 50%) chance of being scum when I started the wagon on him. When the wagon reached L-1, and Lowell claimed, I unvoted then took a hard think and realized that Lowell didn't really make sense for

either

kind of scum. So I didn't revote.

I am historically pretty bad at guessing scumteams, but since you asked so sweetly and nicely I'll do some. I was guessing that we had 1 Cerulean and 2 Vermillion left. In that scenario, Lowell would be unlikely to be Cerulean; that would give the scumteams a power role imbalance. So if he was scum, he was probably Vermillion. After the wagon formed, and

every single other player I thought likely to be scum

was on Lowell, I decided that Lowell as Vermillion was unlikely too; it's a stupid place to bus. Thus, he was probably town. Since then, the 1 Cerulean and 3 Vermillion scenario, which I was considering fairly unlikely, has gotten (relatively) more likely. In that scenario Lowell is probably Cerulean, with three Cerulean power roles balancing four Vermillion goons.

one last issue I have a problem with...the back track on stance....When I read "maybe town" "maybe not town", I took that as a scum/town list

It wasn't a scum/town list. It was a town/unsure/scum list with

nobody in the scum category

. The first group is the people who I was reasonably sure were town ("town"). The second group is the people who I was

not

reasonably sure were town ("maybe not town"). There was nobody who I was reasonably sure was scum, thus, no third group. Really, I am utterly failing to see why you are having trouble with this.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm giving you the chance to pick the game which will demonstrate your point the best. If you don't want to, I'll just pick one randomly.

Hey Xyl don’t yell at people for not meta-ing if you are not going to do it, any reason you are not checking up on my games like you said you were? Again, you are trying to discredit me by pushing lies, but you never really checked did you?

I was trying to be totally fair to you by waiting for your answer to my question about which game I should look at. I guess the answer is Mafia 86, looking now.

[Xylthixlm]

First thing I notice, immediately, is that the person you are attacking in those quotes of yours ("Empking") is town. So, after two games of accusing someone of being scummy for "backtracking" and having them come up town, you haven't learned anything? Noted.

[Xylthixlm]

I dont want to misquote you or assume you are saying something you are not

Funny, I'm not seeing that attitude here. You just assume I'm saying something I'm not and immediately start attacking over it. Why the difference?

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm. I'm past the bit where the fight with Empking is. I was looking for loaded questions but didn't really see any, the closest I found was this:

so there is a blatant connection between Stef and BA....Stef (like you) attacked me yesterday for my hammer, without knowing Pop's alignment. BA throws up shitty logic in attempt to "partially clear" Stef today...but you think I AM more worthy of a vote than BA?

care to explain why?

But the person he's questioning

did

just change vote to CKD, so there's no question about the truth of the premise.

Compare to this game:

you are back tracking and contradicting to the extreme yourself to avoid this lynch, why?

This is the logical fallacy of the loaded question: a question which can't be answered without implicitly accepting a false premise.

Now compare to Frogs Mafia, where curiouskarmadog was scum:

keep trying buddy...or are you going back to the "it wasnt 100% fool proof" back pedal?

do you usually misrepresent facts in other games?

CKD seems to be very fond of using loaded questions when he's scum.

CKD, care to explain your use of loaded questions here? Or better yet, find a case of your using this particular logical fallacy as town, so we can compare.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote: Xyl

The last page, I have gotten a scum read on him.

And

this

, ladies and gentlemen, is why I try to ignore attacks on me if I can. Too many people view the simple act of defense as scummy and don't even realize they're doing so.

[Xylthixlm]

will answer Xyl posts then....but have a feeling he will keep avoiding my points by bringing up old games...once I demostrate that I do something as town, he tries to find something else...Xyl, when i demostrate that I always ask what you call "loaded" questions as town or scum, what are you going to say?...(oh know, another "loaded" question you will avoid).. Xyl you cant avoid the truth of the question by calling it loaded...

Ahem.

LOADED QUESTIONS ARE A LOGICAL FALLACY. CHECK WIKIPEDIA.

If you feel the need to use a logical fallacy to support your case, you must not feel your case is good enough to stand on its own without them, eh?

But sure, find me an example of a loaded question you used as town. I'm waiting.

[Xylthixlm]

Current working hypothesis: SerialClergyman and Faraday are Vermillion together. I'm unsure whether curiouskarmadog is Cerulean, or whether Lowell is Cerulean and curiouskarmadog is Vermillion. In either case Lowell is not the best lynch.

I doubt he's Cerulean, he pushed for the Mastin lynch day one even after Mastin claimed.

So he's probably not Cerulean, and probably not Vermillion. What does that make him?

First thing I notice, immediately, is that the person you are attacking in those quotes of yours ("Empking") is town. So, after two games of accusing someone of being scummy for "backtracking" and having them come up town, you haven't learned anything? Noted.

How is this game different from the fourth or fifth game that CKD has done this?

I'm just pointing out that curiouskarmadog is making a case using a "scumtell" that he should know is invalid. I know CKD's case is bullshit here, the only question is if it's bullshit because CKD doesn't know any better than to use bogus scumtells and logical fallacies, or if it's bullshit because CKD is scum and using them deliberately.

[Xylthixlm]

However, I think we'll be just as likely to hit scum and we'll have more information if we lynch Lowell. If we lynch Xyl and he flips scum, it's possible he was just buddying Lowell and trying to ditch the responsibility of leading the town astray. But if we lynch Lowell and hit scum (Vermillon) then I think we can definitely understand this derailing that Xyl is doing.

Wait wait wait wait. This is totally backwards. There are four possibilities: Both me and Lowell are scum, only I am scum, only Lowell is scum, and neither of us is scum. You say that Lowell is more likely to be scum than me, which means that you must think "only Lowell is scum" is more likely than "Only I am scum"*. But then you play up the possibility of "Only Xyl is scum" and dismiss the possibility of "Only Lowell" is scum.

This doesn't make logical sense

.

I think you are setting up to lynch Lowell, and then if he flips town, you're going to say I was just buddying up to him and turn around and try to lynch me.

So, right now, pick one. Either I am more likely to be scum than Lowell, or it's more likely that Lowell is scum without me than vice versa. Choose.

*
Chance that Lowell is scum = chance we're both scum + chance only Lowell is scum
Chance that I'm scum = chance we're both scum + chance only I am scum

Chance Lowell is scum > Chance that I'm scum -->
Chance we're both scum + chance only Lowell is scum > chance we're both scum + chance only I am scum -->
Chance only Lowell is scum > chance only I am scum

[Xylthixlm]

Your cases are weak and your defences are weaker.

Mmmhmmm.

Tell me, do you think that pointing out that the person attacking you is using a logical fallacy is a weak defense?

[Xylthixlm]

So, right now, pick one. Either I am more likely to be scum than Lowell, or it's more likely that Lowell is scum without me than vice versa. Choose.

I think, therefore, that I'd prefer the second scenario, because I think I would be more sure about you being scum on a Lowell scumflip than Lowell being scum on a Xyl scumflip.

If you would be more sure about me being scum on a Lowell scumflip than vice versa, then you think it's more likely I am scum without Lowell than vice versa. That is

not

the second scenario. It's the first. You think I'm more likely to be scum than Lowell is.

So vote me.

Tell me, do you think that pointing out that the person attacking you is using a logical fallacy is a weak defense?

Yes, I do.

Really.

Do you think that fallacious arguments are still valid?

[Xylthixlm]

You find a part of the argument that's a logical fallacy and then dismiss everything about it without tryign to get to the gist of the argument.

I've invited curiouskarmadog to rephrase his questions without the fallacy, and I'll answer them. I'm still waiting there.

[Xylthixlm]

curiouskarmadog, you too. If you believe your case, vote me. Come on.

[Xylthixlm]

This statemtent isn't logically true. You are mixing up the stages.

Say A has 60% chance of being scum. (totally arbitrary percentage, I don't work in percentages)
Say B has 60% chance of being scum.

At the moment, there is no difference between A and B in terms of who to lynch.

Now say, if you knew A was scum, you think B moves to a 70% chance of being scum with A.
But if you knew B was scum, you think A has a 90% chance of being scum with B.

That means that now, if you lynch B, you will be able to confirm scum more powerfully, making B's lynch better now.

Obviously you don't work in percentages, since you've gotten the math totally wrong.

Let's say A and B have the same chance of being scum. Some portion of that is the chance that both are scum, which is the same for both of them, for obvious reasons. That means the remaining part, the chance that each of them is scum without the other, must

also

be the same. It's totally symmetrical. If you know that one is scum, the chance of the other one being scum based on that knowledge must be the same in either case.

Work it in the other direction. If A being scum means that B is very likely to be scum, that means that the chance of A being scum without B is low relative to the chance of both being scum. If B being scum doesn't mean that A is very likely to be scum, then the chance of B being scum without A is not low relative to the chance of both being scum. But the chance of both being scum is the same in either case; so the chance of B being scum without A must be high relative to the chance of A being scum without B. Which means that B must be more likely scum than A.

So, since you say "I would be more sure about you being scum on a Lowell scumflip than Lowell being scum on a Xyl scumflip.", logically I must be more likely to be scum than Lowell from your point of view. Vote me.

In math.

Let X be the case that A is scum, and Y be the case that B is scum.

"It's more likely that B is scum given A is scum than it's likely A is scum given B is scum".
P(Y|X) > P(X|Y) [Given]
P(Y & X) / P(X) > P(Y & X) / P(Y) [Definition of conditional probability]
P(X) / P(Y & X) < P(Y) / P(Y & X) [Invert both sides]
P(X) < P(Y) [Multiply through by P(Y & X)]
"It's less likely that A is scum than that B is scum."

[Xylthixlm]

So if you're telling me that you read his question and didn't get that surge of frustration at being wrongly accused and didn't want to go out and prove him wrong when he says you were backpeddalling and contradicting yourself and instead just thought well the question is phrased in an invalid way so I'll pretty much ignore the issue entirely, then yeah, that's dead scummy to me.

What if I pointed to a game where I did

exactly

this as town? Would that change your opinion on the scumminess?

[Xylthixlm]

Damnit Xyl don't break the golden rule because I think you're town and I'd REALLY rather lynch not you for this mess.

Shhh, let SerialClergyman answer.

[Xylthixlm]

I'd appreciate it if no one hammers at least until SerialClergyman and curiouskarmadog can answer why they're attacking me but voting Lowell.

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm. Now you're misrepresenting my arguments. Fixing:

rofl, remember when you thought I was scum in some other game? (this was not an argument, it was an attempt to jog roflcopter's memory)
ckd, I notice every time you asked a loaded question to someone, you've been scum. (therefore ckd is likely to be scum now as well)
I've done that as town before (therefore it doesn't prove I'm scum)

Funny, those aren't bad logic.

If you gave me a link of you doing it as town then I'd consider it less scummy

I already gave you a link to the game: Frogs Mafia. In it, the exchange basically goes like this:

CKD makes an attack on me that contains a bunch of loaded questions.
I ignore the questions.
CKD complains that I ignored his questions.
Much excitement over whether ignoring questions is scummy.

Now, there are

two

, count them, two important points here.

First,

I was town in Frogs Mafia

. Therefore this is part of my town meta, and more importantly, CKD

knows

it is part of my town meta, a fact which he is conveniently ignoring. Does this prove I'm town? No, but the fact that I'm behaving the same way this game sure as hell doesn't prove I'm scum. The fact that he is ignoring meta information that he knows also suggests that CKD is arguing in bad faith, therefore scum.

Second,

CKD was scum in Frogs Mafia

. And he is doing all the same things in this game that he did as scum in that game. Does that prove he's scum in this game? No, but it's damn suggestive.

Xyl - if I followed your logic correctly, and God knows there was a lot of it, I think you're trying to separate the chance that either of you is scum from the chance of further scum finding tomorrow.

No. Nothing of the sort. I did not use "today" or "tomorrow" anywhere. I will repeat

just the conclusion

in bold letters so you cannot missunderstand it. (On the theory that bold letters help understanding, I guess.)

If you think that Lowell being scum implies my being scum, but Lowell being town does not imply my being town, then I am more likely scum than Lowell.

Quite simple.

Now, you can think that maybe I'm scum and making up bullshit here. But if I am, you should vote me. If I'm not, then my logic is correct (really - I was a math major and I'm very good with probability). My logic means that, if you really believe that Lowell being scum would imply my being scum but not vice versa, you should vote

me

and not Lowell. Is this totally clear?

No, it's not, because you don't want to vote me. Why not? Because Lowell is at L-1, and you want to get him lynched today, because you know he's not part of your scumteam. But you want to insist that even if he comes up town, I could still be scum, so that you can get a mislynch tomorrow. You aren't willing to give up either of those, because they go against your goals as scum, even though they're logically contradictory.

Prove me wrong. Vote me.

[Xylthixlm]

And if you're going to ask for a specific post where I ignored a question, well, that's going to be a tough request because

ignoring a question doesn't result in a post

. But this post shows some of the resulting argument, and should make it pretty clear that I don't answer some kinds of question when I'm town.


Note for SpyreX: I'll be happy to debate you for why ignoring loading questions is not scummy on theoretical grounds, if you'd like. I can also go into why

asking

loaded questions is a scumtell. Although I bet you can figure that one out yourself.

[Xylthixlm]

Also, please add "bad logic" and "strawman" to the list of reasons I'm voting SerialClergyman. Although he and CKD are doing a damn good job convincing me they're both scum.

Faraday hasn't done anything to make himself scummier lately, though. Where is he?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not asking to be lynched. I'm just pointing out that SerialClergyman's claimed beliefs are logically inconsistent, and therefore unlikely to be genuine.

Again, for reference, the three statements that were logically inconsistent (all in the same paragraph no less!) are:

However, I think we'll be just as likely to hit scum and we'll have more information if we lynch Lowell. If we lynch Xyl and he flips scum, it's possible he was just buddying Lowell and trying to ditch the responsibility of leading the town astray. But if we lynch Lowell and hit scum (Vermillon) then I think we can definitely understand this derailing that Xyl is doing.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm also waiting for SerialClergyman's explaination for why I would bus a scumbuddy to L-1 and then try to derail the lynch.

For extra points, explain how this could be consistent with my "no bussing" meta.

[Xylthixlm]

I'll be damned if I let one of my top suspects tell me who to lynch

So... you won't vote me because you think I'm scum.

I can dissect the rest if anyone (other than SerialClergyman and curiouskarmadog) cares, but I think that right there is enough to prove that SerialClergyman is spouting bullshit.

[Xylthixlm]

Hey SpyreX, could you unvote Lowell and vote SerialClergyman? Thanks.

[Xylthixlm]

lowell is most probable scum**

Second & third most probable are?

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman: Ah, but I know I'm town. I just have to hope that the rest of the town is competent.

Anyways, keep on with your plan to get Lowell lynched. He's at L-1, just a push away, why give up a sure thing? Oops, I guess SpyreX unvoted. Well, you still have a chance there, you only need two more votes. You must be too afraid to lynch me first because when I come up town people will think maybe I was right. So keep on insisting that we're both scum, and then if Lowell gets lynched and he comes up town (or maybe Cerulean) you can turn around and say that hey, Xyl is still scum, let's lynch him next. It'll still work as long as no one believes me! So keep on trying.

[Xylthixlm]

No, I am voting you because of all your weak attacks of CKD during pages 80 and 81.

Which attacks are you calling "weak"?

I don't see how a townie would benefit from randomly choosing evidence to use.

That's why I gave him a chance to pick.

[Xylthixlm]

If it's what I think, let me just summarize the case again, and you can tell me if it's weak.

• CKD's attacks on me in this game contain loaded questions, which according to Wikipedia is a
  logical fallacy
  .
  
• CKD has definitely used similar attacks, including loaded questions, in a previous game where he was scum.
  
• CKD has not shown any cases of him using similar attacks in any previous game where he was town.

Now, what stronger evidence do you want than that? A confession?

[Xylthixlm]

Looking through every game CKD has played as town would be a poor use of my time, and if CKD doesn't pick I have no reason to pick any one game over another. So I'd just pick one. ("Random" here doesn't mean selected by chance, it means selected arbitrarily.)

I asked CKD to provide a town example and he hasn't. I'm assuming that's because he can't.

[Xylthixlm]

Looking through ckd's posts for quotes for Wickedestjr. Just found this about roflcopter:

I have been down this EXACT same road with him before (exept maybe he posted more). I attacked him for spouting that "X is obv town"....I felt that it was scum motivated...I was wrong...his play is scummy to be sure, but for him, it is a null tell.

Interesting. So CKD, by this logic my avoiding questions is a null tell - you attacked me for it in Frogs Mafia and were wrong. Do you agree that it is a null tell?

[Xylthixlm]

I think it's a null tell. I have seen townies ask pretty stupid questions. I have asked some pretty stupid questions when I was town. Give me the three worst questions that CKD has asked in this game in your opinion, and that may change my mind.

Your wish is my command.

KK, why are you in a rush to get the day over?

you are back tracking and contradicting to the extreme yourself to avoid this lynch, why?

If you think he is scum of any variety, why is it a bad lynch? How is it protown to lead people away from a lynch of someone YOU THINK IS SCUM?

Again, compare those with this quote from a game where he was town.

I dont want to misquote you or assume you are saying something you are not

Does that seem like it's from the same player who is making wild assumptions and misrepresentations about what I said, and then immediately accusing me of contradictions without even trying to get clarification?

[Xylthixlm]

Anyone who hasn't read CKD's play in Frogs Mafia needs to go do that now. Seriously.

[Xylthixlm]

also, your attack of loaded questions is sad....it is a way for you to avoid answering my questions by attacking the question itself.

Do you disagree that they're loaded questions?

How many games of my have you looked at when I have been town...please name the games.

I've looked at every game you've asked me to look at. Namely, Mafia 86.

[Xylthixlm]

CKD, more easy questions for you to answer:

In your view, did you ask loaded questions in Frogs Mafia?

In your view, did you attack me for not answering questions in Frogs Mafia?

[Xylthixlm]

If you can find one game where you ask loaded questions as town, I'll be pretty surprised and might have to rethink things.

[Xylthixlm]

For reference the wikipedia definition of a loaded question is

It is committed when someone asks a question that presupposes something that has not been proven or accepted by all the people involved.

[Xylthixlm]

Do you disagree that they're loaded questions?

short answer...I attack the same way as scum or town. Do I think they are loaded?..no

Okay. So going by the definition I just posted, you are saying that everything presupposed by this quote has been proven or accepted by all the people involved? Is that correct?

you are back tracking and contradicting to the extreme yourself to avoid this lynch, why?

[Xylthixlm]

3: Has he said that he won't provide examples? I think that if you are going to pick a game randomly, then you should wait for him to say that he won't be posting any examples.

Uh. I

did

wait. What I said was that

if he didn't pick a game

I would pick one randomly. He picked one, so I used that. Pay attention.

[Xylthixlm]

When was this question asked? What post? Who was it directed at? I don't know much about it.

1. Go to the bottom of the page, where it says "Display posts from previous:".
2. Click the "All users" dropdown and select curiouskarmadog.
3. Hit the "Go" button.
4. Search the resulting page for that quote. (Ctrl-f searches the page in many browsers.)

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think this question is so bad. If he was just mis-repping somebody, then they could clarify. (Instead of ignoring the question.)
I believe this question was directed at you. If yo really are town, then you must of had a reason to direct the lynch away from Lowell, even though you think he is scum. What is that reason?

"just mis-repping somebody" is

what a loaded question is

. Why would a townie have any reason to be misrepresenting somebody? In the game CKD provided where he was town, he actually went to trouble to

avoid

misrepresenting anyone. In this game he seems to be misrepresenting people deliberately. You don't think that's scummy? Really? Seriously? I don't even need meta here to say that misrepresenting someone is scummy.

I have said repeatedly that the reason I want to direct the lynch away from Lowell is that I

don't

think he's scum! Or to be precise, that I think he's less likely to be scum than SerialClergyman. The fact that you think otherwise proves that curiouskarmadog's loaded question has done its job of confusing you.

That

is why loaded questions are so scummy: they confuse people about the truth.

[Xylthixlm]

Wicked, I've had Xyl gunning for me ever since his white-light moment backflip about Lowell and he's been practically daring me to vote him for days, but I keep coming back to Lowell, his really suspicious behaviour on the bandwagon yesterday and that neighbor crumb. Lowell has done absolutely nothing to try to quell any of that suspicion, and Xyl's defence of him only makes me more convinced that if they're scum together, Lowell is the more important one to lynch - we've already seen a roleblocker and a doctor, I'm sure there are other scum power roles out there and I imagine Lowell is one of them.

Given all of this, what makes you want to vote Xyl over Lowell?

How scummy would you say Lowell was if I wasn't defending him?

[Xylthixlm]

post and questions answered tomorrow.

since I have to go through my old cases....questions Xyl, have you ever attacked someone as scum using a meta you manipulated to serve your purpose? Will be checking....

No. That would be stupid, anyone could just check the meta themselves, like I keep encouraging people to do in this case.

Has anyone read Frogs Mafia yet? Anyone?

[Xylthixlm]

CKD, while you're at it, please answer 2077 and 2083.

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman, where does "Xyl is scum and Lowell is town" fit into that ranking of possibilities?

[Xylthixlm]

Sum to 300% = I was guessing 3 scum left, each with a 100% chance of being somebody.

On iPhone, will respond with quotes later.

Saying something I'm not? Just look at your "you invited Lowell even though you said he's scum". I said that I thought he was

less scummy

and that's why I unvoted him. Is your reading comprehension really that poor? I don't think so.

"Attack the same as scum as town"... Yeah right. I'm sure you try to the best of your ability. So does everyone. No one succeeds. Stop trying to claim you have no meta.

Maybe I'm not scum... Wait, so now I might not be misrepresenting your meta? Didn't you say I was?

Please answer the question about asking loaded questions in frogs mafia. Yes or no. I'll even take "yes but" or "no but".

Nope, I haven't pushed lurker lynches - the only person lurking who I don't have reason to think is town is Faraday. You'll notice he's on my list of scum.

What did you learn about my town meta on answering questions from frogs mafia?

[Xylthixlm]

Mini 655 post 67, I felt Raider had been back tracking and was being scummy.

“Why are you back tracking now?”

My Post 58, Mini 688, I felt EA was scummy and stretching to push a case..I stated such.

“EA, why are you stretching so much?”

My Post 42 in California trilogy.

“seems to me that you are warping what really happened yesterday...why?”

Mmmh. Well, they do seem to be loaded. On the other hand it seems like there's a difference between "You are backtracking" and "You are stretching" on one hand, and "You are backtracking and contradicting yourself to the extreme to avoid this lynch" on the other. You're much more

charitable

in those quotes. Do you disagree?

[Xylthixlm]

you and semantics again....let everyone read it..

If Lowell is the last Cerulean

, and is a neighbor, that would give the Ceruleans three power roles (doctor, roleblocker, neighbor). That's not impossible, but

it's a little unlikely

.

That lowers my estimate of the likelihood that Lowell is scum enough to make me want to look elsewhere today.

/vote:Lowell

Sorry Lowell, ut I'm convinced that you are scum.

Even if you're convinced he's scum, if he is

he's almost certainly Cerulean

.

If that's the case then lynching him today is

bad

.

Not as bad as lynching a townie, but still bad.

.

for the record, is lowell "unlikely to be cerulean" or "almost certianly Cerulean" In both posts, you feel that Lowell is not a good lynch...so please dont act like you didnt say it

funny how you dont post your quote with you semantics defense. I will do it again for you,

first quote bolded.

first post you say that it is "unlikely" that Lowell is Cer, and "that lowers my estimate that Lowell is scum". If he is not Cer, he fucking must be Ver....and that lowers your estimate that he is scum., thus you dont want to lynch him. I am not misreresenting anything....are you trying to say now, that you werent trying to indicate that Lowell is ver in this post?

Let's read that first quote again.

If Lowell is the last Cerulean, and is a neighbor, that would give the Ceruleans three power roles (doctor, roleblocker, neighbor). That's not impossible, but it's a little unlikely. That lowers my estimate of the likelihood that Lowell is scum enough to make me want to look elsewhere today.

What do I say about Lowell's scumminess in this post? I say that

I don't want to lynch him because I don't think he's scum

. Nowhere do I say that he's likely to be Vermillion, and in fact that idea contradicts what I've said in previous posts. You are

making up a position for me that contradicts what I've actually said

and then accusing me of contradicting myself! That is incredibly scummy and you know it.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh yes, forgot this: When I point out that curiouskarmadog is accusing me of saying something I never said, he says that I'm arguing "semantics".

[Xylthixlm]

Lowell feels like frustrated town here.

Lowell: Take a closer look at Farady for the last Cerulean. He's lurking, which is a pretty good strategy if you're the last member of one scumteam and the other scumteam is caught in the spotlight.

Although honestly I can't say SpyreX isn't lurking.

He also gets points for being by far the most dynamic player in the past 10 pages or so, at times single-handedly pushing the discussion.

And all the time hoping for another townie to jump in and help. Grrrr.

[Xylthixlm]

I want a lynch of either SerialClergyman or curiouskarmadog. I'll take either one. I will

not

support a lynch of anyone else.

[Xylthixlm]

Faraday, any guesses for which scumteam Lowell would be on?

[Xylthixlm]

Lowell's posting gets better and better. <3

[Xylthixlm]

Go find that breadcrumb. What page is it on?

[Xylthixlm]

Maybe the reason I'm not finding the breadcrumb compelling evidence is that I'm the one who found it, and the way I did that is start at page 1 and look for anything that looked like a breadcrumb by anyone. The chance of a false positive doing that is not negligible.

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman, did you think Wicked was scummy at any point? Why or why not? I don't see a lot of interaction between you and him before the claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Lowell's posts reek of convinience. When Wicked was unclaimed, Lowell found everything he did scummy. Now, not so much.

I found this very interesting, because I had the same reaction to Wicked that SerialClergyman is accusing Lowell of. I thought he was totally obv scum, and then he claimed, and now I don't. So I looked to see what SerialClergyman said about Wicked to see if he had the same reaction and ... nothing. Serial didn't say much about Wicked, and what he did say gave the impression that he was just assuming Wicked is town.

So I asked. SC's response is at least consistent with his interactions before.

[Xylthixlm]

@Xylthixlm: in post 1952 you condemn the Lowell bandwagon and SerialClergyman and Faraday in particular for "ringing your scumdar", yet you ignore that SpyreX jumped in between those two. Why?

I didn't like it because people who were ringing my scumdar jumped on the wagon. Jumping on the wagon was not why they were ringing my scumdar.

[Xylthixlm]

Let me color that vote count with

Maybe not town

,

Town

and

Kublai Khan

. It may clarify why I was suspicious of the people on the wagon.

-=Vote Count #54=-

Lowell (5) -

Xylthixlm

,

curiouskarmadog

,

SerialClergyman

,

SpyreX

,

Faraday

SpyreX (1) -

Wickedestjr

SerialClergyman (1) -

Kmd4390

Not Voting (3) -

Hayker

,

Kublai Khan

,

Lowell

6 to lynch.

I do not like the people on that Lowell wagon. SerialClergyman and Faraday are both ringing my scumdar. This wagon grew too fast on too little evidence - and yes, I know I started the wagon.

I'm not sure why Kmd thinks Serial specifically is scummiest, but I see a nice case of IIoA. Let's run with it.

vote: SerialClergyman

[Xylthixlm]

Correction: "It may clarify why I was suspicious of the wagon itself on account of the people who were on it"

[Xylthixlm]

The case on the people in red is

I didn't have any reason to think they're town

. Very simple process of elimination. Try it sometime. I don't need scum reads if I have enough town reads.

Hayker and Kmd could be on the "for" list and it wouldn't matter: the problem was that every single person who I thought likely to be scum was voting Lowell except for Lowell himself. That made it kind of unlikely that he is Vermillion. I already thought he probably wasn't Cerulean, so I decided he probably wasn't scum at all.

[Xylthixlm]

Ok, I'm makingsure I've got this right.

You don't have any scumtells on a group of people, but

they are the only people you

don't have

any particular

a strong

reason to think they are town

either

. Then you make a case against someone you presumably think is

likely

scum. Then you are convinced to leave this case completely when

some (all except kk)

all

of the

other

people you feel are

likely

scum

by default

join the wagon.

Is that a fair summary?

No. Fixed.

[Xylthixlm]

Town

Xylthixlm: I know I'm town.
Hayker: Mason. Also lurker. Mason covers many sins.
Wickedestjr: Mason. Play ranges from misguided to downright bizarre, but still, mason.
SpyreX: I've played with SpyreX before and I'm pretty sure I can read him when he's town. Which he is.
Kmd4390: His play reads as very protown. He has gut reads and is playing by them. Town.

Probably Town

Kublai Khan: Miller claim, day 1 play seem townish. Not 100% convinced here.

Unsure

Lowell: Was lurking hard. Has made a few townish posts recently, but not conclusive. "Breadcrumb" on page 31/Lowell post 11 is suggestive but not a slam dunk.

Probably Scum

Faraday: Lurker. Avoiding taking positions.
SerialClergyman: Few scumtells, but no reliable towntells either - any moderately good player could play this way as scum. Play feels closed, hard to read. Suffering highly convenient failures of logic.
curiouskarmadog: Playing almost exactly like he did in the one game I've played where he was scum. Attacking with loaded questions, which are more useful for generating suspicion than for actual scumhunting. Doing nothing I haven't seen him do before as scum.

[Xylthixlm]

a vague gut/meta read

Love the loaded language. See SerialClergyman's "summary" for more gems like this.

[Xylthixlm]

Kmd4390: His play reads as very protown.

He has gut reads and is playing by them.

Town.

Is this "anything more concrete than gut or meta"?

[Xylthixlm]

Also, why would you think having gut reads and playing by them makes you town?

Experience. Gut reads are hard to fake convincingly as scum.

Quotes? As far as I'm aware, KMD has been voting based off the wagon analysis he did a long time ago. Where do you see him going by gut reads.

Are you asking me to build a case on Nam? All I have right now is gut/VC analysis

Apparently you remember the wagon analysis part but completely ignore the gut part?

[Xylthixlm]

Good gravy I'm starting to go around the horn to thinking both of you are town and this is an amazing case of "worlds greatest townfights"

The thought has crossed my mind here actually

unvote, vote curiouskarmadog

[Xylthixlm]

Well that was unexpected.

I do change my opinions in light of new evidence sometimes. I believe curiouskarmadog calls it "scummy backtracking".

[Xylthixlm]

If SerialClergyman is town, Kmd will look a

lot

worse here for just sitting the whole thing out.

Faraday looks bad regardless.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, and SpyreX is totally town here. Just in case I needed more evidence.

[Xylthixlm]

At this point I'm almost certain ckd is scum, and the other two(?) scum are almost certainly in SC/faraday/kmd/Lowell but I'm not sure which two. I would be happiest with a ckd lynch by far.

[Xylthixlm]

Serial, Xyl's argument is that with all of his suspects voting Lowell, if he is right about his suspicions, Lowell has no scumbuddies unless they are bussing him. I don't think Xyl thinks anyone is bussing, therefore, Lowell is town or Cerulean. If I'm correct, Xyl wants to lynch Vermilion which is why he unvoted. Xyl, am I following this correctly?

Almost. I don't think he's particularly likely to be Cerulean either - a big part of the case against him rests on the "breadcrumb", and I don't think he's a Cerulean neighbor.

[Xylthixlm]

Serial, Xyl's argument is that with all of his suspects voting Lowell, if he is right about his suspicions, Lowell has no scumbuddies unless they are bussing him. I don't think Xyl thinks anyone is bussing, therefore, Lowell is town or Cerulean. If I'm correct, Xyl wants to lynch Vermilion which is why he unvoted. Xyl, am I following this correctly?

Almost. I don't think he's particularly likely to be Cerulean either - a big part of the case against him rests on the "breadcrumb", and I don't think he's a Cerulean neighbor.

What if he's Cerulean but not a neighbor? TBH, I don't see how alt=neighbor.

Without the "breadcrumb" I really don't see Lowell as scummy enough to be a good lynch - he's between Kublai Khan and Faraday.

[Xylthixlm]

Lowell didn't refuse to claim.

[Xylthixlm]

But he did claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Actually you may have just bought yourself another night.

If its every two nights unless you did something VERY weird you can hide tonight.

Hide behind a mason. Either one, dont care, dont say.

You die and no masons die, masons are scum pulling the awesomest gambit.

You die and a mason dies the other is confirmed.

A mason dies and you dont... well, we deal with that if it happens.

Its late enough that even the other side can't let you live much longer.

So, back around for the fifth time.

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

Xyl I know you're not down with this lynch but we need it to happen.

SC, you too.

I'm having trouble believing the claim, but the hide-behind-a-mason plan is good.

Mmmmh.

Don't like "why didn't anyone ask me to claim" at

all

.

Possibilities...
* ckd is a hider.
* ckd is scum.
* ckd is a scum hider.

Why did ckd only hide once?

If ckd is telling the truth he should have breadcrumbed his hide behind kublai_khan.

I don't know if ckd plays town after the hammer. I'm not going to assume he doesn't.

Thinking.

[Xylthixlm]

-=Unofficial vote count=-

curiouskarmadog (2) - Xylthixlm, Lowell
Lowell (5) - Faraday, Hayker, curiouskarmadog, SpyreX, SerialClergyman
Kmd4390 (1) - Wickedestjr

Not Voting (2) - Kublai Khan, Kmd4390

6 to lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't see a breadcrumb from ckd. Claim is dubious at best.

Gut says curiouskarmadog and Kmd are both scum. Probably different teams.

SpyreX is going to be flabbergasted. Kmd is Cerulean, curiouskarmadog and Faraday are Vermillion. I think.

[Xylthixlm]

You guys are immense chumps. The "every other day hider" claim makes no sense. Still it's verifiable, so whatever.

Here's an idea. Let me live. Have him hide behind me.

unvote, vote kmd

. Someone other than me, please. I'm finally starting to pay attention to this and you'll need me.

Huh. Lowell is the last Cerulean.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm almost tempted to let this go no lynch so Lowell can take a shot at the Vermillions.

[Xylthixlm]

Vermillion might just leave Lowell alive because if the town will have to get rid of Lowell at some point and if we leave it for another day then that's another day that we aren't hunting Vermillion. Vermillion can just keep picking off the most pro-town roles.

The issue isn't if Vermillion will kill Lowell (probably no), but if Lowell would kill a Vermillion.

It really comes down to whether there's 2 or 3 Vermillion left. If there's 3 and we lynch Lowell, we'll be at 5-3 tomorrow, and that will be very hard to win.

[Xylthixlm]

I, Xylthixlm, do wish it to be known in the event that I die tonight, that curiouskarmadog has pushed a case against me for things he knows I do as town; that he has made that case using the same tactics and false arguments that he uses as scum; and that his arguments are scummy and his justifications unbelievable. Let no one doubt the truth of these statements.

[Xylthixlm]

You guys are saying he is scum and debating on whether or not to lynch him.

Vote Lowell

Yes, we were.

[Xylthixlm]

BTW In Twillight Faraday said he was scum. Just member that.

Wait what?

[Xylthixlm]

Slaughtered AND murdered.

Wow.

Look somehow I claimed scum again. Fantastic.

That took skill.

So, can we lynch curiouskarmadog now?

[Xylthixlm]

If someone lies (alignment unknown) in game, should they be lynched?

There would need to be a pretty compelling reason not to. Catching people in lies is one of the town's best weapons.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't see a breadcrumb from ckd. Claim is dubious at best.

Gut says curiouskarmadog and Kmd are both scum. Probably different teams.

SpyreX is going to be flabbergasted. Kmd is Cerulean, curiouskarmadog and Faraday are Vermillion. I think.

This is my working theory.

Pretty sure Kublai Khan is town due to his reaction at the end of yesterday (among other reasons).
Still pretty sure SpyreX is town.
Wickedestjr is definitely town.
I know I'm town.

That leaves 3 scum in (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman). So... figure out who's towniest and lynch one of the others. Another mislynch here would be really bad.

Right now I think SerialClergyman is towniest. Working theory is intact.

---

SerialClergyman, what do you think of the Lowell flip?

Wickedestjr, what do you think of the Lowell flip?

curiouskarmadog, did you breadcrumb your first hide target anywhere?

Kublai Khan, out of (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman), who do you think is town?

SpyreX, out of (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman), who do you think is town?

[Xylthixlm]

I am confused how Lowell being town would make you

more

worried about me. Elaborate.

[Xylthixlm]

What's the KK-CKD connection?

[Xylthixlm]

Oh right, he claimed he hid with Kublai.

You realize that KK can be town and CKD scum, right?

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman, I didn't really look at your case carefully because I already think Faraday is scum. You don't need to convince me.

[Xylthixlm]

to partly answer Xyl question about a breadcrumb....I am pretty sure you know the answer to that (maybe not, since you came in today wanting to lynch me). Yes I did....to say anything else, would only help scum.

Bullshit. If you breadcrumbed who your hide target was the night you hid with Kublai Khan, point it out.

[Xylthixlm]

why do you want to know so bad?

trying to figure out what night I hid?

why?

Stop bullshitting and claim it.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: curiouskarmadog

Not moving for any reason until he claims his breadcrumb.

[Xylthixlm]

not going to answer my questions?

or are they loaded?

Why do you want to know what night I hid so badly?

how is it protown to know what night I hid?

Because it's the only thing that will possibly make you not consider you confirmed scum.

[Xylthixlm]

not going to answer my questions?

or are they loaded?

Why do you want to know what night I hid so badly?

how is it protown to know what night I hid?

Because it's the only thing that will possibly make me not consider you confirmed scum.

EBWOP

[Xylthixlm]

BTW: I have found overconcern over not releasing info which could possibly help scum, despite the fact that the info could be useful to the town, to be a scumtell.

[Xylthixlm]

Fine, if we're massclaiming let's get on with it, please? Popcorn style, Wickedestjr chooses first to claim.

[Xylthixlm]

If this drags out for weeks I'm going to start forgetting reasons and impressions and other important-but-hard-to-verbalize information. In my experience, the town does better when things go faster, at least up to a limit which this game is nowhere near reaching.

[Xylthixlm]

are you curious about faraday's thoughts before the claim?

Not really. He's had plenty of chances to contribute. I guess it won't kill me to give him 72h from the start of day, but I'm not expecting anything.

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX, don't be a moron and don't claim out of order.

Fine, if we're massclaiming let's get on with it, please? Popcorn style, Wickedestjr chooses first to claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyone who has already fullclaimed can start it. Wickedestjr would be best because he's confirmed town, but it doesn't matter that much. What matters is that we go popcorn so scum can't choose their spot in the claim.

[Xylthixlm]

i only trust Wick and KK to start.

Meh, fair enough.

[Xylthixlm]

You forgot ckd in your claim order. Anyways, popcorn.

[Xylthixlm]

Fine, whatever. I'm vanilla, curiouskarmadog is next.

Achilles

SpyreX - Vanilla

cateraction

curiouskarmadog -

Hider, targets ???

dvdkid13

Kmd4390 - Vanilla

fallen angel

Xylthixlm - Vanilla
Faraday - Vanilla
Kublai Khan - Miller

reveillark

SerialClergyman - Vanilla
Wickedestjr -

Mason

[Xylthixlm]

I gave my scum list before you asked

[Xylthixlm]

Totally, totally not buying ckd's "breadcrumb".

Standard hider tactics is to leave a super-obvious-in-hindsight breadcrumb the night BEFORE you hide. That way if you turn up dead, people look for the breadcrumb and see who you hid behind, and they know that person is scum.

ckd is claiming that his "obvious" breadcrumb is a switch from saying KK is scum to saying KK is town... something that he has to point out. Worse, he only "breadcrumbs" the day

after

his hide. If KK had been scum and ckd had died and come up hider, we would have had nothing to go on. Would ckd really be totally unconcerned about leaving the town a hint as to who is 100% confirmed scum if he dies?

Nope. Not buying it in the slightest. Someone please hammer.

[Xylthixlm]

Oops, 5 to lynch.

Someone L-1 and then someone hammer.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl was on point...just hit the wrong scum first.

he should have seen that I wasnt part of a group...I had no friends in this town...

You know when I said I'm horrible at guessing who is on which scumteam? That was true. Honestly, I'd be better off throwing darts at a dartboard.

Also, I'd like to whine about the Lowell lynch. If I say someone is town

don't lynch them

. My scum reads are unreliable, but my town reads are almost always right. When I win it's by finding the town players and lynching everyone else.

[Xylthixlm]

So you got me, but couldn't get much momentum. I guess that's the problem with wagon analysis - it might be really convincing to you, but you ahven't got the scumtells and suspicious behaviour that other people need to commit.

Scumtells are seriously overrated.

[Xylthixlm]

-=Vote Count #67: The End of Day Four Vote Count=-

Lowell (6) - Faraday, Hayker, curiouskarmadog, SpyreX, SerialClergyman, Kmd4390

Kmd4390 (2) - Wickedestjr, Lowell
curiouskarmadog (1) - Xylthixlm

Not Voting (1) - Kublai Khan

6 to lynch.

Hey look I was the only person voting scum in this vote count.

Meh. Maybe I could have done better - although Kublai Khan and SerialClergyman got enough townies thinking they were town that I wouldn't have been able to get a lynch even if I had them pegged as scum - but the game was almost totally lost when Lowell was lynched. I was doing my best to stop it.

Also, the town was somewhat underpowered for the scum setup, mainly because of the mason/neighbor bastardry. The neighbors were practically vanilla townies, so the only real town power was two masons, a jailkeeper, a cop, and a vig... not nearly enough to counterbalance the scum.

[Xylthixlm]

SC, I was totally right about your motivation for not voting me. Your whole "well maybe he has a scum power role" excuse was so incredibly bogus; there's no possible reason I'd try to take a fall for a scumbuddy there, except as some sort of bizarre WIFOM.

Anyways, you were quite good at getting me to doubt my initial read on you. Well played.

[Xylthixlm]

I was expecting you to switch your vote if you were town, absolutely.

[Xylthixlm]

Code: Select all

num town = 17
num mafia a = 3
num mafia b = 4

kill town a = 17 / (24 - 3) = 0.81
kill scum a = 1 - 0.81 = 0.19
kill town b = 17 / (24 - 4) = 0.85
kill scum b = 1 - 0.85 = 0.15

town nightkills = 1.66
scum nightkills = 0.34

So... if the town can lynch scum 68% of the time, the number of scum is totally reasonable (average of 2 dead town per dead scum, which is roughly the ratio of town to scum at the beginning).

I don't care what conventional wisdom says, this town needed more power.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't care what conventional wisdom says, this town needed more power.

Five out of seventeen power, plus the neighbours. What did you want, a 24 player game with only four VT?

If it's going to have 7 scum in 24 players, plus the useless neighbors? Yeah, only four VT sounds about right.

[Xylthixlm]

To put it another way: town lynched five times, hit scum twice, and lost anyways.

[Xylthixlm]

Meh. I'm known for being power-role happy as a mod, at least compared to conventional wisdom. Then again, I recall an analysis of large themes showed that scum were winning significantly more than 50%, so "conventional wisdom" results in an underpowered town.

Part of it is lots of exposure to the IRC bot, which has an autobalancer that continually adjusts the meta to keep the town win rate at 50%. The meta it's settled on has

way

more power roles than any human would use, including me. But it gets the games to 50%.

[Xylthixlm]

To put it another way: town lynched five times, hit scum twice, and lost anyways.

Because they hit THE SAME scumgroup both times. Lynching CKD in that situation was the worst thing you could do- worse than mislynching. No one even considered the possibility of him being cerulean that last day.

All three scum killed by town were the same group. That's just unlucky. The vermillions deserved to win, because they got to the sixth night without a single one of their group lynched. Hell, if town had no lynched, there was a near-certainty of double crosskill there.

You consistently point out that town scumhunted with a decent success rate, and ignore the fact that they had no success whatsoever in hunting the group that was the greater threat. Hell, Faraday basically active lurked through, and pretty much no one called him on it at all.

We've already established that I have no ability whatsoever to selectively hunt for one scumgroup. This might explain why I consider a setup that requires selectively hunting for one scumgroup to be unfair.

[Xylthixlm]

Meh. You're probably right.

[Xylthixlm]

I wonder what the bot thinks is right for a 24-player game with 2 scumteams...

Code: Select all

[mild] mafia: Godfather, Mafioso, Sibling; mafia2: Godfather, Roleblocker, Mafioso; town: Vigilante, Double Voter, Cop, Retired Wolf Hunter, Sibling, Townie (x13)
[mild] mafia: Godfather, Roleblocker, Mafioso (x2); mafia2: Roleblocker, Mafioso (x3); survivor: Survivor; town: Mason (x2), Vigilante, Redirecter, Doctor (x2), Nurse, Townie (x8)
[mild] mafia: Redirecter, Godfather, Mafioso (x2); mafia2: Godfather, Doctor, Mafioso (x2); sk: Serial Killer; town: Mason (x2), Psychiatrist, Vigilante, Cop, Doctor, Roleblocker (x5), Super-Saint, Townie (x3)

... okay, you're right.

[Xylthixlm]

I think it's not just about the reads.. Xyl's reads were excellent, and simply stunning in hindsight, especially looking at Valhalla. But even after identifying those reads Lowell, a mason and CKD were the ones who ended up on the chopping block, and that counts for something.

The trouble is, the way I get reads, I may be right but I can't convince anyone else - I don't find the scumtells and stuff that most people expect you to use to "build a case".

The only solution is for more people to blindly follow whatever I say.

[Xylthixlm]

Do you think there's a case for using PoE to determine the scum then using a 'confirmartion bias-y' case to get them lynched?

That would get

me

lynched.

[Xylthixlm]

Which reminds me, I think we should add 'unreasonable burden of proof' to the logical fallacies section of the wiki. Like when Rofl was trying to get Xyl here to provide reasons why he would never possibly do the things he was doing as scum.

That drove me nuts. I knew roflcopter was town, so I tried to actually explain my way out instead of just ignoring him like I do with most attacks. That just made me look scummier to him.