Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[populartajo]

Im here.

Im going to be terribly busy today.

Will post tonigjht or tomorrow

[populartajo]

Sorry guys, if my V/LA doesnt get better in the following two days, I'd likely ask for a replacement.

Dont worry yet.

[populartajo]

Promisse to post tomorrow. I just got tired rerading another game that needed my presence.

[populartajo]

Famous tajo scumlist alert. (now with comments to compensate my absence in the first 10 pages.

Prob town

ThAdmiral - nice entrance at the game. decent analysis of the game. OGB defender. Votes Mufasa. Question : whats the difference between ogb and mufasa? So far, prob town.

iamausername - as usual, iaun is solid. 12 is good posting. 93 is a good catch even though the joat is an example in page 1. We need more of his analysys.

Korts - like his agressive stance regarding seraphim. Shows efforts of scumhunting. So far, some of his thoughts are polemic that are a town tell in my book.

charter - obv town. nice agressive stance regarding all the situation of the game. Again, polemic thougts.

inHimshallibe - i get a "i vote whoever i feel like to" vibe from his posts. Slightly townie here. Would be good to hear more from him.

Mixologist - relaxed tone and some agression makes me think that this guy is prob town.

So has everyone else. What are your thoughts on the rest of the game outside of those three?

SpyreX - I somehow like his analysis of the OGB-Mufasa situation. Do you think that OGB is scum? In probabilites, how much?

Neutral

Caboose - Somehow defensive of OGB and Mufasa. I dont get his alvinz hate. Really. However, not too bad as many seem to imply.

Mufasa - ok, we know this guy has lied before as town and he is a useless prick. The point that his claim doesnt make sense (two roleblocking abilities?) really doesnt mean anything here since we know he has lied before as town. The point is that if he is scum using this mascarade to win the game. Really torn here, leaning for the option of let this guy live and let scum to take care of him, specially when he claims to have some powerful abilites.

skitzer - weak logic.

If Mufasa isn't really a Jack-Of-All-Trades and is scum, then scum won't kill him, obviously. We should lynch Mufasa.

WTF? Can you clarify what you wanted to say here? But oOverall I get a weak logic townie read here.

ekiM - good analyzer. Im a little bit biased to be extra careful with him since he just came up scum in a game where I pegeed him as obv town. 230 is good posting. But I dont understand his position regarding Mufasa. Clarify.

roflcopter - started good but I find interesting his defense of Mufasa when I expected him to be over him. Would rolftown defend Mufasa as much as he did? Hyperagressive as usual.

alvinz95 - crap poster. OGB pusher. What do you think of Mufasa? Why did you prefer OGB than the others? . Alvinz-Caboose realtionship is noted.

Seraphim - seems more agressive and active than usual. I get a "this is why I lurk" townie read from his posts but Im not too sure yet. Gut tells me this guy is town but I hate this:

Unvote Don't like the speed of this wagon at all. Mufasa is definitely still my #1 suspect but pressuring him with votes isn't going to do any good.

Mufasa is scum or the people wagoning him are scum? Why do you think rolf is town?

X - seems a good analyzer. I dont like this:

Okay, this is getting less and less believable. This was a strategy for reactions? I'm pretty sure that you've hurt the Town more than hurt it, if you indeed are Town. So if this was your ingenious master plan, what have you learned? Unvote: OGB, Vote: Mufasa.

Do you think Mufasa is town or not?

OozingGolfBall - I dont get the hate OGB is getting for asking to guess his alt. Damn, it was random stage. I can buy some of the agressive players here will be over him, though. This lynch is not as optymal as you imply to be. How is he different than other "quality" posters? Ill analyse his wagon later.

tubby216 - bleh, two posts with weak content. Usual self. Not much to analyze. One question, how is OGB different than Mufasa? More tubby content, plz.

darkdude - again a poster with weak content. Havent played with him before. Thinks OGB and Mufasa are both town. Who is scum then? More content, plz.

Prob Scum

Axelrod - big pusher of the Mufasa situation. Too concentrated on him. If Mufasa flips town, (as Im leaning to believe) this guy should be interesting to look at. Please comment on everyone else or die.

HowardRoark - weak poster. His thoughts just dont make sense. His FOS and votes are terrible.

FoS charter for throwing shit to see what sticks.

unvote vote Korts
For his contrived case against Seraphim.

Can you explain why Seraphim is probtown?

Starbuck - dont like this guy. Agreeing with rolf, charter and mike about ogb. Then, he has a weird stance regarding Mufasa. First he is quikcly to put Mufasa in the town territory. Too much for my taste.

Onto Mufasa, I don't understand why someone would claim on Day 1. It just makes no sense.

It just made him a Mafia target.

But then, he votes for him when the pressure starts to increase.

I am also in agreement on Mufasa. Something just doesn't seem right.
Vote: Mufasa

This is a good vote.

Vote: Starbuck

[populartajo]

Unvote

Having gone back and re-read a bit, I really think you guys may be right about Mufasa.

Can you explain why? Who are "you guys"?

You're behind, yet willing to "shamelessly bandwagon"?
Unvote, vote inHimshallibe

You think he is scum for that? Anything else?

Unvote

Vote: inHimshallibe

He's so scum, it hurts. If I had more time, I'd post more but I have to get ready to leave...later!

Waiting for this explanation.

I didn't say probtown. I'm just saying that I've seen him twice as town and this is not any different.

Which means that Seraph is prob town, neutral or prob scum?

You seem really quick to jump on my bandwagon. Rather than just asking me the question below. Are you trying to protect yourself and your scum buddies populartajo and Mufasa?

WTF? You just posted that maybe "we" were right about Mufasa. Why is Admiral scum? Even more, why I am scum?

ogb
skitzer
caboose
seraphim
axelrod
x
howardroark

Can I get a little explanation about these reads?
And what do you think of Starbuck?

[populartajo]

1.

Vote : Seraphim.

2. Agree with Neighborhood claiming.

Will make my own analysis later. So far, rolf posting is something everyone should analize.

[populartajo]

I just have a question. Im no master in balancing setups and such so thats why I ask.

Whats the expected number of scum and mafia groups in this game?

[populartajo]

Knowing that, I will analyse ala rolf and come up with at least one obv scum after that.

[populartajo]

Analysis of the flipped scum:

OGB:

As some have noticed, treating this game as a "guess my real account" game in

random stage

is for obvious reasons not the scumtell rolf and company wanted to show to the world. I agree he deserved the votes (good enough for random stage) and the posterior pressing that developed in posterior zero contribution to the thread and a scummy final post that sealed his fate.

The guy was scum, russian. As usual, his wagon is reliable source of information:

OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

Pretty sure there is at least one Russian in the wagon and more even probable there is an Italian here. (considering also that two Italians are off the wagon)

I'd love to hear some reasons why I'm scum besides you pile of wifom that is your misrep of my first post.

This was to rolf. Rolf is probably not Russian.

Nice ad hom. Unvote; Vote: Mufasa
Too much jumpiness in your posts.

Mufasa is not Russian.

ThAdmiral:

His first post is a soft defense of OGB and Mufasa.

caboose defends mufasa. noted.

Im thinking that no scumpartner will fixate in this. But this is weird because ThAd was kinda doing the same thing.

Mufasa seems inexperienced.
Seraphim says something about the "tone" in which mufasa claimed which is just a very poor and completely subjective way to keep his vote on someone who may very well be a town power role.
It could be a scum claim but it would be a risky one.

So I agree that this ThAd-Caboose relationship feels forced.

darkdude comes out of nowhere are says ogb and mufasa are town. No reasons given.

darkdude is prob not Italian. No scumpartner will fixate in this.

ekim brings up the distraction argument against ogb... I was beginning to like him

I dont like this. Prob distancing.

Skitzer makes some interesting (read: scummy) posts in which he only looks at one side of the mufasa issue, states that we will have to lynch him eventually, and perhaps subtly implies he knows he is town in 173, although I am willing to let that one off with just odd wording.
In any case Skitzer has gone up in my scum rankings.

Skitzer is not Italian.

Good pick up there. It seems she's hinting at the fact that she knows mufasa is town in that first post.
in fact unvote, vote: starbuck

Which makes me think that Starbuck is also not Italian.

Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Starbuck, Skitzer, darkdude

InhimIshallbe

This would be interesting since Inhim was very liberal with his votes.

vote: Caboose
I'll be back maybe tomorrow, but I'm checking in and putting my vote on the most likely scum that I see.

He along Ad, fixated with Caboose early. But inhim didnt develop his suspicions on him. Again, a forced relationship.

unvote
vote: Seraphim
What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway? I don't like how you've backed off his lynch train.

Mmm, I would dare to say that Seraph is also not Italian. InHim revoted him after some posts. Also this:

First off, "inHim" will help you out on reducing all the typing.

If Seraph had already contacted with inHim in night 0 he would already have found a way to reduce his name.

In other news, HowardRoark and Korts are probably the same faction.

There has to be something hidden here.

I've switched my vote in 5 of 5 posts, correct. But most of the time I've been in catchup mode from the rest of the day's posting. Meh, I change my mind a lot.

Charter is also obv not italian.

2 FOS in a row warrant a vote. unvote vote: skitzer

Along with ThAd, they fixated against skitzer but in a more agressive way. Skitzer is also obv not Italian.

Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Seraphim, skitzer, charter.

Bonus:
Analysis of the Mufasa case:

We know this guy is scummy as fuck. But lets assume for a second he is town and analyze his wagons:
Interesting wagons:

Mufasa (7): charter, Starbuck, skitzer, OozingGolfBall, X, ThAdmiral, inHimshallibe

I agree with the assumption that also makes Mufasa unlikely Russian and Italian. I asked how many mafia groups would be in this game. Since the answer is 2 (can i trust skitzer? yes I can) it makes Mufasa either third party or, more prob and by a wide margin, town.

A normal game should have at least one Mafia faction, and no more than two.

Mufasa (5): charter, iamausername, Mixologist, Starbuck, skitzer

I would bet there is at least one scum in this group.

[populartajo]

Conclusion :

I dont think Seraphim is as optymal as I thought before. Some arguments point him to being likely Italian but inhim, flipped Italian, attacked him in a way that doesnt seem like bussing (twice). Im really interested in pressing someone like Caboose which is posting in mishmash and not here.

Unvote Vote : Caboose.

Im also up for lynching Starbuck but I dont think he is Italian. He is either Russian(more likely) or third party.

[populartajo]

Well, Korts if you continued reading you will realize how I explain others to get to that conclusion.

[populartajo]

I agree with the assumption that also makes Mufasa unlikely Russian and Italian. I asked how many mafia groups would be in this game. Since the answer is 2 (can i trust skitzer? yes I can) it makes Mufasa either third party or, more prob and by a wide margin, town.

So read the thread or GTFO YOU.

[populartajo]

Rereading some alvinz stuff I came up with this interesting quote:

This town is full of fucking idiots who will follow anyone. Hell I bet someone will claim jester right now and everyone will believe him/her. If ANY town follows Axelrod's advice, then they are pretty much fucked as that you ALWAYS NEED TO TAKE THE BEST OPTION-THERE IS NEVER ROOM FOR ERROR. I clearly was not the best option available and the town blew it. NONE OF YOU EVEN ANSWERED MY QUESTIONS BEFORE YOUR HAMMER, THIS IS HOW FAIL THE WAGON IS.

HowardRoark, you just majorly screwed yourself over by saying that I was BUDDYING WITH YOU. Good job winning dammit.

I feel sorry for you real scum hunters that use actual evidence rather than sketchy role information. Good luck controlling your town. I'm going to say there's going to be AT LEAST 3 SCUM on my wagon. There was no good reason to start a wagon on me besides Caboose's random statement that I was scum. X, good luck winning the game with that kind of playing, hammering me without everybody reading what I said.

I'm leaving mafiascum for good anyway, so farewell everyone. I'm going out with a bang. Good luck you epic fail town (excluding the actual good players), you will never win if you continue to play like that. NOW GO BWN SOME SCUM.

Obv hard bussing with some WIFOM salsa.

HowarRock isnt also the most protown person on the game, a quick check of your posts will tell you that :

Vote : HowarRock.

We are still in a healthy position. Now, basically we wait for Caboose results (we know he is a cop but I am still pondering if we should call him confirmed town) and all the nighborhoods SHOULD claim in the following posts. The masonry SHOULDNT claim.

I need to read again knowing these all results. Wait for an updated analysis tonight.

[populartajo]

Charter, I fail to see how having a confirmed town helps us today when its painfully obvious he will be nightkilled tonight.

Having a confirmed town when we are a reduced number is 100% more useful than today.

The mason(s) shouldnt claim.

[populartajo]

I see it this way.

Assuming 3 masons:

If we have bad luck and one of our masons dies today and if scum claim third mason he will obviously be counterclaimed and we have all the information both rolf and the other mason gave us before dying. It will be painfully obvious if he is telling the truth or not, knowing rolf.

Assuming 2 masons:

If we have bad luck and second mason dies today and if scum claims third mason we have all the information both rolf and the other mason gave us before dying. It will be less obvious if he is telling the truth or not, knowing rolf, but we would definitely have a way to catch him lying.


I really see little benefit with claiming today. However, if the mason(s) are intelligent enough to get to endgame or near it, then its basically gg for scum in a future massclaim scenario.

Also, about the neighbors, I think this is a pretty decent assumption:

Also, if there was anyone else in the Upper Roccisi Neighborhood I think he/she should claim it, as there's been a Russian and an Italian in that neighborhood already. It doesn't totally clear said person(s), but I think it looks pretty good.

[populartajo]

Dont waste time on tubby. I dont see him as scum claiming that freely when he knows he will be counterclaimed. Only a counterclaim can change my mind about him being town. But Im posting this right now so everyboidy see this:

If you are the real rolfpartner mason, CLAIM NOW. If you claim later, you will hurt the town.

Tubby, if you for some reason "forgot" that your masonry is of three players, I think TODAY is the time to say it. Dont say who he is but please tell us if there are indeed three players in your masonry. If you are only two, then confirm please.

Okay, with that said, now can we go back to lynch HowardRock?

[populartajo]

OK then. I'm assuming tubby is telling the truth, with the proviso that he is lying then he

really

should be counter-claimed, unless the remaining mason is a multitasker-vigilante-cop or something.

Congrats tubby, you are playing as confirmed town! Make the most of it...

@SpyreX: From page one: "

Masonry: All members are confirmed to be pro-town and share the regular town victory condition.

"
@all: would like more opinions on the merits of neighborhood claiming.

I dont see any reason why they shouldnt claim, specially the one that already had two mafiates on it.

[populartajo]

What do we lose?

[populartajo]

I dont know. Im sucker for massclaim and Im really pondering if with the amount of dead scum and the amount of interaction between roles and the additional information that neighbors could provide, we are approaching the line where massclaim can lead us to win this game as a puzzle.

[populartajo]

Just an example:

Bullshit. You can't calculate likeliness of either scenario, since you don't know the town's power roles. I have role-based information that at least one kill more was attempted N0 than went through.

This is just a piece of a puzzle that massclaim can solve if done correctly.

But as I said, maybe today is not the optymal day. My reread will confirm or deny my theory.

[populartajo]

im back reading all I missed.

post tomorrow

[populartajo]

Korts is right. Im gradually coming back to my games, giving preference to the ones where I have missed +20 pages and such.

I havent read all I missed yet but darkdude is at L-1. I think a claim is in order.

Can someone point me to the case against him?

Also, why is HowardRock not dead yet? Am I the only one seeing the Howard-Alvinz forced connection?

[populartajo]

why is howard prob town?

[populartajo]

Blerg, this game shouldnt be too hard. We have 4 scum dead already, some prob townies and tons of interactions.

Give me some time and Ill come up with some conclusions tonight.

[populartajo]

Tubby, please explain clearly why HowardRock is town.

[populartajo]

Of everyone else, I like the lurkiest people the least - which is HowardRoark and populartajo.

Except I wasnt lurking. I was busy.
What do you think of HR?

[populartajo]

Ive seen alvinz scum once. He was lynched early for a silly mistake. The important thing here is that he is the kind of scum that doesnt ignore his scumpartners.

Ha, I found the pot of gold. Despite my claim that Caboose was town because I thought he was joking, Caboose is still lingering on lynching me with little basis except that I'm not posting which is what I do in all my games... But now I see HowardRoark following Caboose's vote. It seems this is all under the plan to pick on the non-contributor which is what I do in all games and everyone knows. Caboose most likely did this to deflect attention off OozingGolfBall. Now HowardRoark follow and HowardRoark did not vote OGB either.

Scum = Caboose, HowardRoark.

Vote: Caboose

"Vote:town, FOS:scumpartner" scumtell.

HowardRoark, you just majorly screwed yourself over by saying that I was BUDDYING WITH YOU. Good job winning dammit

This last quote smells wrong in so many directions.

I dont find any reason why this guy should be alive. Anyone?

[populartajo]

Well, I reviewed Darkdude and he's quite literally said nothing this entire game that gives me a "town" feeling. Not every post is screaming "SCUM" either, but this far into a game, I'd expect

something

to come across as genuine - even bad players who are scum will occasionally say townie-sounding things. But I got nothing. The most I can say for him is that some of his posts raise big WIFOM banners - i.e., would he

really

say that if he was scum....

This is pretty much what I thought when I reread darkdude this morning. I agree that lynching him today is one of the good plays for today but rushing the day when we have already some decent information in the thread doesnt make me feel good. I just have this feeling that we can win this one today.

[populartajo]

What up, happy people? Lowell is here. All will soon be revealed.

I'm impressed with the hilariously productive town we've got here so far. Not that you really need me, but at some point I'll read through and post my thoughts, making all things clear. Give me a couple of days.

Anyway you can do this faster, considering we're sitting on the brink of a lynch right now?

Axelrod, I asked for your opinions of HR.

Who do you suspect?

[populartajo]

ok well i playu basically off of gut and meta,

I know howard and alvinz have a history of not seeing eye to eye.
he has been active even through his v/la something he does as town almost exclusively ( he too complusive to let stuff just sit)


at least thats just how i see it but i could be wrong its been known to happen

what does howard and alvinz have a history of not seeing eye to eye mean? and he has been active where?

[populartajo]

First, I need to make a correction concerning my case on populartajo. He rated both Russian members (alvinz95 and OozingGolfBall) as neutral -- a good place to rate your partners

If they had been in the town places, you would have said the same, omg he put them at townies.
If they had been in the scum places, you would have said the same, omg bussing.

Second, why no response/reaction to my case? Hoping that others will forget that I have you pegged like I had your partner alvinz95 from the beginning of that day?

Your case is based on my bad reads yesterday and OMGUS. You didnt even know I existed before I attacked you, right?

Third, some additions to my case by going back to your original player summary. You had iamusername, Mixologist, and SpyreX as prob scum and you have yet to have any interaction with them. You have also had no interaction with X, whom you listed as neutral. What are your thoughts on them now?

When the hell did I post that iamusername, Mixo and Spyrex were prob scum?

Fourth, other than my lack of activity and the ridiculously contrived alvinz95 linkage . . . why are you screaming for my lynch? Seeing as how a darkdude lynch has become probable, are you attempting to draw people away from him?

Im not the only one thinking you are prob scum. Why the hate against only me? And Im not attempting to draw people awy from darkdude. Did you miss the part where I said he is one of the good plays today?
Do you at least accept that is weird that alvinz had an strange fiuxation with you?. Why do you think he made this attack against you?

HowardRoark, you just majorly screwed yourself over by saying that I was BUDDYING WITH YOU. Good job winning dammit

Did you even respond to this?

[populartajo]

Im sick and for that reason V/LA until tomorrow.

[populartajo]

Still sick but I managed to make a post with some of my thougths.

Guys, Im going to make a big assumption here but I think its the most reasonable one. I doubt we are facing another Russian (I dont find the balance in 4 russians with 2 1-shot vigilantes). Im no expert in balance and such but I feel 6 scum is the right number here: 3 Italians and 3 Russians. Also, look at TDC and his love for order/perfection. I dont think he would put 4 Russians or 2 Italians.

Anyway, if you disagree withe me, then you wont disagree with the idea that its more likely that there is one more Italian than one more Russian.

So I think the focus today is to find the very likely last Italian instead of a hypotehycal Russian.

When I made my post 421 I concluded that some people couldnt be Italians.
Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Starbuck, Skitzer, darkdude
Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Seraphim, skitzer, charter.

Really when I see the list of players alive I think we are facing a very skilled scum. I get a majority of townie/neutral reads here:

05. ekiM - last post feels protown, still neutral, will have to reread him more.
09. populartajo - awesome town
10. Seraphim - prob town
12. Korts - neutral, will need to reread him more.
14. X - neutral leaning townie, will need to reread him
15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.
17. HowardRoark - scummy. very unlikely russian but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since big part of my case against him was his alvinz relationship
19. charter - obv town
20. SpyreX - prob town
21. Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

Also, with the assumptions I made, my suspicions of HowardRock dont fly anymore. I think the guy is scummy as fuck but really my case was mostly his relation as scum with Russian alvinz and as I explained before, I dont think we have another Russian.

Finallly, thoughts of massclaim people. I really think we are very close (if not there) to solve this game seeing it as a puzzle as another weapon for scumhunting.

[populartajo]

i just found out that caboose was breadcrumbing very heavily that he had a guilty result on alvinz early day 1. And by very heavily I talk about words like :

caboose, why would you rather policy vote/lynch alvinz than pursue what you agree is a legitimate argument in favor of voting ogb?

Not a policy vote.
You'll see....

So it is a policy vote then? Please make up your mind.

No, it's not a policy vote. It's a pressure vote. But it's failing since no one is wagoning.More alvinz wagon.
Trust me, it'll be worth it.

Still keeping my vote, and encouraging more.

me thinks a town cop would at least want to be less obvious about his guilty result even in day 1, like you know, trying to not get night killed by the mafia partners of the guilty result you have or like, you know, trying to get another result.

its even worse when you check that the most likely Italian coming from an anaysis of inhim and admiral is this same very player. Ad attacked Caboose for defending Mufasa when he did the same in the very same post. Inhim along Ad, fixated with Caboose early. But inhim didnt develop his suspicions on him. Forced relationships.

the best part is that it fits with rolf's suggestions that the italians for some reason didnt protect their godfather inhim night one. They didnt protect a heavy suspected target that night, they protected a very likely russian night kill target.

The answers : Caboose.

vote:caboose.

[populartajo]

His (Caboose) alignment is probably town

Why?

[populartajo]

His (Caboose) alignment is probably town

Why?

Because Cops usually are. That's the meta.

facepalm.

can you say the same about doctors and vigilantes?

[populartajo]

Why didnt you see what I was referring to before?

HowardRoark could potentially be a Russian Godfather, which would fit with the whole TDC liking symmetry, but I Am discredited the possibility that HowardRoark was not linked to alvinz95.

Can you clarify this? I dont get it.

[populartajo]

QFT. As for why he isn't dead yet, tajo, that's a pretty stupid question. Tubby was protecting him up until now. Any intention to lynch Caboose right now, especially the way you're trying to twist things in 689, is likely scum doing some damage control before it's too late.

Im not twisting anything. I see some things that fit and share.

Bleh, totally forgot about tubby claiming bodyguard protecting Caboose. Its likely he protected him last night also.

But still, and lets be clear, you think Caboose is prob town/neutral/prob scum?

He wasn't really that obvious--I've seen people with the same amount of conviction and nothing at all to back it up plenty of times.

Ive seen that too but its not a commom behavior. Really if you read Caboose and what he breadcrumbed is pretty obvious. What would you do, Korts, if you were a town cop with a guilty result on someone day 1?

Also, you explain the lack of an Italian doctor on their GF by saying that Caboose would've been a Russian target, even though he only claimed cop Day 2, and there were far more pro-town players than him around. What would've made him a prime Russian target after Day 1?

Well, if I were nonalvinz Russian and I see Caboose heavily pushing for the lynch of my scum partner the first thing that would come to my mind is that the guy obviously has a guilty result on me.
Im pretty sure that if Caboose is an Italian, this is also the first thing that inhim and admiral thought.

Finally, what do you think of massclaim?

[populartajo]

Guys, I agree with some voices (mike and some, i guess) that its very likely that we are facing max two scum left. My spidey senses tell me that its only one last Italian.

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

Mike, why the Lowell vote?

[populartajo]

him* is Caboose.

[populartajo]

Reasons for SpyreX?

Read my posts please. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's Russian.

4 Russians, Korst?
Why?

[populartajo]

me thinks a town cop would at least want to be less obvious about his guilty result even in day 1, like you know, trying to not get night killed by the mafia partners of the guilty result you have or like, you know, trying to get another result.

I was trying to get more results, but I wanted to breadcrumb aggressively enough to where alvinz would get lynched if I got NKed N1.
I'm not sorry if it didn't meet your standards.

Caboose, do you usually get nked N1?

[populartajo]

Korts, what do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

8 scum in a 23 players game, which include 3 unknown roles, 1 mafia doctor, 1 multitasker, 2 1-shot vigs, 1 godfather seems balanced to you?

[populartajo]

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

I don't follow.

The explanation is that we have confirmation that he is a cop. Even if he is scum, he is a source of very easy to verify information.

[populartajo]

Korts, what do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

8 scum in a 23 players game, which include 3 unknown roles, 1 mafia doctor, 1 multitasker, 2 1-shot vigs, 1 godfather seems balanced to you?

Without knowing all the town power roles, there's no way to judge, and you should know that. It's not unlikely at all that it is balanced.

Why are you so intent on forcing me to hunt Italians specifically?

Ok, Im no expert in balancing things but all the scum we have seen so far have been power roles. 8 scum seems just too much.

About me forcing you to hunt Italians...

I just want you to realize that all the effort you are putting in hunting an hypothetical Russian could be used more optimally in hunting a very likely Italian.

The situation radicates in the aswner to this question: What do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

[populartajo]

Basically Im still here.

Really when I see the list of players alive I think we are facing a very skilled scum. I get a majority of townie/neutral reads here:

05. ekiM - last post feels protown, still neutral, will have to reread him more.
09. populartajo - awesome town
10. Seraphim - prob town
12. Korts - neutral, will need to reread him more.
14. X - neutral leaning townie, will need to reread him
15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.
17. HowardRoark - scummy. very unlikely russian but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since big part of my case against him was his alvinz relationship
19. charter - obv town
20. SpyreX - prob town
21. Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

With the only difference that Im considering leaving Caboose alive for information reasons when massclaim finally reaches.

What about you, Korts?

[populartajo]

Ill catch up this night.

[populartajo]

Hrm. I think I'll have to stop hounding for a Russian lynch. Balancewise it's not that probable, and no-one seems to agree with me that SpyreX is very much implied as a Russian.

vote: tajo

for previously expressed suspicions.

Which ones?

[populartajo]

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, if anyone cares.

Name of the masonry.

Why do you think he is not town?

Also, charter please confirm, deny.

[populartajo]

I missed some posts of the last page.

Seaside neighborhood. Can we have a transcription of what you both spoke?

Also, I think Seraph has something to give us, right?

[populartajo]

720's- tajo claiming he's not suspicious of Caboose but leaving his vote on there. Also, he's doing more pointless setup speculation rather than giving us who he is suspicious of now. tajo is scum. unvote, vote tajo

First, I never said I was not suspicous of Caboose.
Second, setup speculation is never pointless since it is giving us the way to play the game. Its more probable to find a Italian than to find a Russian. Setup speculation ftw.
And finally Im not scum.

What I said regarding Caboose is that we know he is a cop. Do we know he is town? Fuck no. Lynching him today, even if the guy is scummy as fuck, its not optymal.

But yeah

unvote.

[populartajo]

Still here.

Basically Im still here.

Really when I see the list of players alive I think we are facing a very skilled scum. I get a majority of townie/neutral reads here:

05. ekiM - last post feels protown, still neutral, will have to reread him more.
09. populartajo - awesome town
10. Seraphim - prob town
12. Korts - neutral, will need to reread him more.
14. X - neutral leaning townie, will need to reread him
15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.
17. HowardRoark - scummy. very unlikely russian but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since big part of my case against him was his alvinz relationship
19. charter - obv town
20. SpyreX - prob town
21. Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

With the only difference that Im considering leaving Caboose alive for information reasons when massclaim finally reaches.

I dont support the charter hate, even though his last vote for me is terrible, and I still think Mixo/lowell is prob town. Claim still needs some explaining, though.

What does everyone think of Korts?

[populartajo]

Which ones?

The ones that I detail in my earlier posts. So go read them if you don't know what I mean.

Korts, your attacks against me are spread like AIDS. Can you present a concise case against me or link me to the most relevant posts?

What does everyone think of Korts?

This question reeks of scum. Are you looking for possible footholds because you feel threatened?

[/quote]
Threatened by who? If you analyse my player list, theh you will realize that I have a lot of people in the prob town territory and some people (that includes you) in the neutral side. Making a case on someone I think is prob town is retarded so I thought I would start with my neutral reads.

Korts and charter, just curious, you think Im Italian/Russian or simply scum?

[populartajo]

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, if anyone cares.

Name of the masonry.

Why do you think he is not town?

Also, charter please confirm, deny.

This guy is scum.

Charter, dont tunnel.

I think you are town so stop. Why does that post make you think I am scum?

[populartajo]

720's- tajo claiming he's not suspicious of Caboose but leaving his vote on there. Also, he's doing more pointless setup speculation rather than giving us who he is suspicious of now. tajo is scum. unvote, vote tajo

First, I never said I was not suspicous of Caboose.
Second, setup speculation is never pointless since it is giving us the way to play the game. Its more probable to find a Italian than to find a Russian. Setup speculation ftw.
And finally Im not scum.

What I said regarding Caboose is that we know he is a cop. Do we know he is town? Fuck no. Lynching him today, even if the guy is scummy as fuck, its not optymal.

But yeah

unvote.

Caboose has given me more reason to think he's town than most of the other players in this game.

Why?

[populartajo]

working on the idea that charter is probably town,

unvote, vote populartajo

. The case on him sounds fine.

Dude, what case?

[populartajo]

05. ekiM --> last post in Mon Jun 29, 2009 11:38 am
09. populartajo --> last post today
10. Seraphim --> last post in Sun Jun 28, 2009 7:35 am
12. Korts -- last post in Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:20 pm
14. X --> last post in Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:36 pm
15. Mixologist Lowell --> last post today
17. HowardRoark --> Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:28 pm
19. charter --> last post yesterday
20. SpyreX --> last post Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:17 pm
21. Caboose --> last post Sat Jun 27, 2009 10:02 am

Request mass prod and deadline extension.

[populartajo]

You know why? Because my two suspects are not optymal lynches.

HowardRock is unlikely Russian, even if he is scummy as hell. Im not looking for a unlikely Russian. Im looking for a very likely Italian.

Amazingly enough, Caboose is the one that makes more sense as an Italian. But he is a cop. Some of you think that he is obv town. I disagree but his lynch is not optymal. Tomorrow will be a good day with a fresh investigation. And massclaim. Really, we need it.

[populartajo]

Charter, I said stop tunneling.

What is your case against me?

[populartajo]

Dude, I answered some of these attacks in the last page.

Tajo's first read of everyone had both ThAd and inHim as prob town.

Bad reads. Its not like I didnt explain why I though that at the time.

For whatever reason, was devoid in lynching Alvinz.

When did you realize Alvinz was scum?

720's- tajo claiming he's not suspicious of Caboose but leaving his vote on there.

I never said I was not suspicous of Caboose. Can you point me to where I said this?

Also, he's doing more pointless setup speculation rather than giving us who he is suspicious of now.

Second, setup speculation is never pointless since it is giving us the way to play the game. Its more probable to find a Italian than to find a Russian. Setup speculation ftw.

733- I don't like how tajo is arguing with Korts. Korts is making a lot of sense these past few days, there isn't much to argue with him about.

Korts is attacking me. What do you want me to do? Accept everything he says?

and the post where you question Lowell about why he thinks I'm not town, when he clearly said he did.

Reading is tech:

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

Charter, STOP tunneling. Im town, you are too, so stop.

[populartajo]

Vote: tajo

What this game needs a lynch, and then a mass-claim tomorrow. I think there's a high likelyhood of breaking this game wide open but we need a lynch today, preferably a scum one.

So you dont think I am scum?

[populartajo]

So I am at L-2.

Very likely Im going to be hammered to avoid no lynch.

Ill give you guys something to evaluate.

I am a backup cop.

Discuss.

[populartajo]

If we assume game symmetry, at least one of Charter/Lowell is scum.

Right now, I'm more inclined to vote Lowell...if it comes to deadline, I'll vote for Lowell.

And why would we assume "game symmetry"?

I think tajo is scum. Why would he try to lynch the cop if he's the backup cop?

Because I get to be the cop? And I know my alignment?

Nyeh. Well, sort of.

More importantly, Caboose is scummy as hell. Interactions with dead Italian are damning and the cop is far from being confirmed town. Thats a common mistake in these 2 mafia families games, specially this one where we already have a mafia doctor and mafia vigilantes. But whatever, Im not trying to lynch him anymore. Even if he is scum, his lynch is not optymal today.

These levels of tunneling are starting to worry me, charter. You are not even responding to my answers of your accusation.

Charter, why do you think Lowell is town?

Also, if we are looking at simmetry, how does the Seaside Neighborhood fit in Lower-Rocissi and Upper-Rocissi Neighborhood?

[populartajo]

Why dont we just massclaimn?

I bet that the scum(s) today is(are) not prepared for this.

Tomorrow, well. You get the idea.

[populartajo]

Good. Spyrex is town.

Also, I was thinking in the same thing. Why Lowell over Charter? Lowell is the one that is not sure about charter towniness. Charter apparently is.

Maybe I have understimated him. Rereading him now.

Korts, you want to complete your claim?

[populartajo]

One kill means we have just one kill left as I suspected. We are hunting a Italian.

Kison, result plz. If its Spyrex Im going to be mad at you.

Spyrex dying when there are better targets (cough, Kison) and when he was heavily suspected strongly implies that he was killed by someone he attacked.

We should proceed ending the massclaim.

[populartajo]

See, charter?

huh?

[populartajo]

I got an innocent on populartajo.

As for claiming, I think Korts and ekiM are the only two who haven't done so yet.

Mmm, why exactly did you investigate me?

[populartajo]

I got an innocent on populartajo.

As for claiming, I think Korts and ekiM are the only two who haven't done so yet.

Mmm, why exactly did you investigate me?

Because I found both you and Spyrex to be scummier by a significantly larger margin than the other players in the game. Ultimately, though, either I would have received a guilty on you and known you were scum, which is good news in itself, or an innocent, which, because you claimed backup cop, would be far more beneficial to be made known than in the case of Spyrex.

Why do you think you are alive?

[populartajo]

Im catchin up tonight. Had a very busy weekend

[populartajo]

Wait, wait, wait.

Why exactly are you all preferring Lowell instead of charter?

Kison, do you realize that one of the optymal plays yesterday was to investigate Spyrex? Why did you choose me?

And do you think we have competent or incompetent scum?

[populartajo]

Howard Rock, what are you talking about?

[populartajo]

Kison, do you realize that one of the optymal plays yesterday was to investigate Spyrex?

Obviously not, otherwise I wouldn't have investigated you. Perhaps you can clue me in on what exactly I am missing here, because I am not see it.

Why did you choose me?

My reason hasn't exactly changed since the last time you asked me this, you know...

And do you think we have competent or incompetent scum?

Probably incompetent.

Spyrex was a very optymal investigation target. He was the top suspect yesterday and the idea that he wouldnt be nked was a very decent assumption to make.

What do you make of him being killed?

[populartajo]

Why do you think you are alive?

Since we're likely going after an Italian, and the Italian godfather is already dead, my guess is that the last two claims will shed some light on why I'm not dead. I find it unlikely I wouldn't be targeted.

Any lights on it?

[populartajo]

Fair enough.

There is only one single reason why I dont like you. Why the hell are you alive?

Who is scum?

[populartajo]

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

[populartajo]

Mike, what do you think of he claiming masons instead of neighbors?

Who are your other suspects?

[populartajo]

I meant to do this tons of years ago:

Analysis of the flipped Italians V. 2.0 (now only with people alive)

Admiral

iso 1
iso 1 has some comments of the top subjects of day1 : ogb and mufasa. Ad shows an interesting fixation with Seraphim.

The oh-so-important random phase is "interrupted" by ogb claiming he is an alt. For some reason this makes him obvscum according to seraphim and rofl and others. I tend to disagree.

Mufasa claims joat really early. Why? Charter and seraphim then vote for mufasa. Even more why?

Seraphim says something about the "tone" in which mufasa claimed which is just a very poor and completely subjective way to keep his vote on someone who may very well be a town power role.

This overfixation with Seraph makes me think that Seraph is not an Italian and Ad was setting ground for future suspicions. Seraph -2

caboose defends mufasa. noted.

Now this attack is very strange. Ad thought Mufasa could be a power role. Why was it important that caboose defended mufasa? This attack smells so early bussing its not funny. Caboose +1

iso 2

ekim actually has some good points to say about the ogb situation. Here they are: snip
he also brings up a telling point against mufasa in that he doesn't have a vig, which could be used to test the role.

Adscum is less likely to support points brought by a scumpartner. So, this gives Mike less chances of being Italian. Mike -1

ekim brings up the distraction argument against ogb...
I was beginning to like him

At first glance, I didnt like this attack. But now that I think about it, I dont think Adscum would bring unnecessary attention to Mikescum after he agreed with some arguments in the same very post. Its a possible distancing but not very likely. Mike -1

iso 3

Caboose continues to defend mufasa. If mufasa comes up scum caboose has to be next. I normally don't like chain lynching but this one seems like a gimme.

Ok, if we assume Ad is scum with Caboose, then he should have known that there were 2 scumgroups. In the scenario Mufasa had been a Russian, I dont think this was a very good attack against a scumpartner. This attack, as Ad himself admits, is very strange for him. Caboose -1

Howard Roark votes korts "for his contrived case against seraphim". Another example of a completely subjective reason to vote someone, furthermore a reason I don't agree with at all. He doesn't use any points to back it up either.

Unncessay attention. Less chances of HR being Italian. HR -1

iso 4.
Ad says Mike that his question is a bit loaded. Mike -1.
Charter and Ad have a sincere discussion regarding OGB.

You aren't the only one who has said it, so don't think I am trying to focus on you. But since you responded:

What kind of scum says his partner "dont think I am trying to focus on you".
Charter -1

iso 5 are answers to Mike and Charter. Overall vibe is that its not a scum-scum conversation. No points here since there is nothing very indicative of alignment.

Posterior isos are related to people already dead and one post where he supports my starbuck hate.

Conclusion:

More negative points are people less likely to be Italians.

Seraphim -2
Mike -2
charter -1
Howard -1
Caboose (Kison) 0
Others np

[populartajo]

Yo ekiM, please don't misquote. I never told people to get off the Lowell wagon, that was tajo.

Nevermind, you corrected it

As for the reasoning for my suspicions, it's basically by process of elimination. Seaside Neigbourhood sounds the least likely, and Vanilla Townie is a conveniently easy fakeclaim.

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

Because I literally recieved no result.

And what result would you get if Seraph hadnt done anything that night?

[populartajo]

Inhim

iso 0

vote: Caboose

I'll be back maybe tomorrow, but I'm checking in and putting my vote on the most likely scum that I see. Mostly the doublespeak on voting OGB and reactions to Mufasa is my reasoning.

First vote and unnecessary attention. Caboose -1

iso 1

unvote
vote: Seraphim

What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway? I don't like how you've backed off his lynch train.

Sincere back and forth accusation with Seraphim. Seraphim -1

iso 2 contains some answers to Seraphim.

Doublespeak, to clarify, would be Caboose's alvinz spiel, which I more or less see as fencesitting (one of my favorite words in my mafia vernacular).

More or less, yes. I like to vote productively, and had I realized Caboose was sitting on no votes, I would have mentioned him, but probably would have wound up voting one of Mufasa or OGB.

Those two posts slightly lean to Caboose not being scum with inhim. Inhim wouldnt have called doublespeak on Caboose's alvinz spiel. He would have thought alvinz was a guilty result. -1

iso 4

I agree with Korts that Mufasa is helpful to the town alive rather than dead, but I'm not so keen on pushing votes on charter or ekiM, who I think are just headstrong town at the moment.

Charter and Mike. -1

Looking back at some of the wagon patterns on Mufasa, I'm returning to my Seraphim vote.
unvote
vote: Seraphim

Another vote for Seraphim. Seraphim -1

Conclusion.

More negative points are people less likely to be Italians.
Seraphim -2
Caboose -2
Charter -1
Mike -1

[populartajo]

I've already explained why. Mixologist wasn't posting in our quicktopic, and I'm pretty sure that if he was scum, and had just checked his scum quicktopic, he'd hop on over to ours and try and figure out what I'm thinking. His lack of participation I think means he wasn't interested, which I think makes him much more likely to be town.

That's a pretty weak tell in my opinion.

Seraphim: Did you inform X of your NK immunity before N0 was over? If not, when did you tell him? We might be able to account for a lost kill depending on your answer--we had a surprising lack of kills on N0 in retrospect.

He told me during N2.

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

No, no he's not.

Yet this continued into day two, after several scum were killed. If Caboose was Italian, he'd have been down a doctor by that point, thus putting himself in a very vulnerable position. It's obvious that I am/he was a legit cop based on the accuracy of our results - why, then would he be more likely to draw attention to himself as scum cop over town cop? The way he acted makes more sense as town, because there is no kill to use to go after those guilty results; the only way to get those investigations out there is through this thread. If he was scum, he could have just kept his mouth shut and taken care of any guilty result at night.

I missed this before. Why would he draw attention to himself as Scum Cop? Because it's given him/you semi-confirmed status.

Not worth risking drawing the cross-kill though.

But I don't think it would be crazy of him to have assumed there was a Doctor, whether he was Scum or Town.

If we have 2 scum left, I'm thinking that they might be Lowell and charter based on their unbased gung-ho defense of each other.

Why do you think we have 2 scum left?

[populartajo]

Yo ekiM, please don't misquote. I never told people to get off the Lowell wagon, that was tajo.

Nevermind, you corrected it

As for the reasoning for my suspicions, it's basically by process of elimination. Seaside Neigbourhood sounds the least likely, and Vanilla Townie is a conveniently easy fakeclaim.

Korts, in post 363 you say "Re: my being blocked, I confirm that it's likely I was blocked." You've claimed that N1 you tracked Seraphim and receieved no result. Why did that make it likely that you were blocked?

Because I literally recieved no result.

And what result would you get if Seraph hadnt done anything that night?

Ask Kison, he was the one who got the result of a Vanilla Townie's tracks.

Korts, why did you assume you were roleblocked rather than you tracked someone with no action?

[populartajo]

Conclusions based in analysis of flipped Italians Admiral and inhim.

People not likely to be Italians, therefore not scum.
05. ekiM
10. Seraphim
19. charter
21. Kison

Neutral but possibly Italian.
12. Korts
14. X
15. Mixologist
17. HowardRoark

People likely to be Italians, therefore scum.

Seems both Ad and inhim made a good job not being too obvious with their respective scumpartners. Day 1 and not much posting from both is prob the reason.

There are some things that are important to notice. Why didnt Italians protect their Godfather night 1? This heavily implies that Italians protected a heavy suspected player, a power role more important than godfather or a very likely Russian mafia kill.

[populartajo]

I just thought something.

Someone can use two active abilities the same night?

[populartajo]

As usual, got a very busy and alcoholic weekend. Ill post tonight when I get out of my lovely office.

[populartajo]

Errr, I dont get something.

The general consensus was that both Seraph and X were town because none of them killed for the other, right?

What exactly do we get by lynching X?

[populartajo]

Oh, I get it now.

Need to reread some things before deciding.

[populartajo]

That X lynch was totally unexpected. And the result even more.

With a SK in the setup and just a kill yesterday, its very likely the only scum left we are facing is indeed just one more Italian. I dont see 4 Italians- 4 Russians - 1 Sk against our dead and claimed roles.

Kisons, result.

Assuming that my analysis of Italians is accurate enough, we can reduce the pool of suspects to some people and still be in good shape.

[populartajo]

Waiting for Kisons result.

[populartajo]

So.

This is between Mike and Kison.

charter, seraph, howard and me are all very likely town.

I dont really want to lynch Mike but maybe its the best play today, we let Kison investigate someone of charter and serpah and lynch accordingly.

Anyone has a better idea?

[populartajo]

Yeah, that too.

There is something that still bugs me intensely.

Why the hell do scum think that its a good idea to let Kison alive and keep confirming people?

[populartajo]

So the last scum is between Mike/charter and Kison. Interesting to notice is that my analysis concludes that charter and ekim dont make sense as Italians for relations with flipped Admiral and inhim, so my gut tells me that Kison is scum but I guess optymal play is to let him alive for one more investigation in case he is indeed the cop and one of charter/ekim tricked me well.

Also why is everyone asking if Korts gave amnesiac to someone?. He explictely said yesterday that he used his amnesiac with Kison.

[populartajo]

vote ekiM

I believe that lynching ekiM is the way to go for today.

The no lynch option increases our odds of winning by 10% if we are seeking one scum; the increase is 7% if we are looking for two scum. Both of those statistics are based upon random lynches.

Kison can investigate Seraphim as he is NK immune and we won't have the same situation as we did with last nights actions crossing.

Thoughts?

Er, why are you voting for an option that doesnt increas our odss?

[populartajo]

Vote: no lynch.

[populartajo]

Did I tell you that Caboose/Kison was scum?

Yes I did.

GG all. Scum unluckily lost the game in night 1. Good effort at the end, Kison. At some point you made me rethink my read of you. Bad luck for you is that we had strong townies left.

Thx TDC for modding. Loved the PM formatting. its almost like flavor in the roles.

[populartajo]

Mufasa twice submitted an invalid choice (players that are not actually in the game..), so did nothing.

LOL WTF?

Korts invents Tracker for populartajo.

And yes, I was the one that got Tracker from Korts invention. Guess I was too obvious in faking not paying attention to Korts PM, Kison? Or did you kill me for other reason?