Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[Xylthixlm]

Hello. Who's scum?

[Xylthixlm]

Hello. Who's scum?

hayker. probably mastin, but he claimed roleblocker or something. keep in mind i've barely been reading the thread. regardless, i'm still right.

vote: hakyer

Mindless bandwagon vote until I've formed an opinion of my own.

[Xylthixlm]

You suspected me?

Doing iso-read on ckool... this pops out. ckool is town.

[Xylthixlm]

For some reason

everybody

looks scummy in my eyes except for Faraday and molestargazer. I've learned my lesson about Faraday, since I kept repeated that I thought he was town in my first game even though he was scum. molestargazer doesn't look scummy because, well, he just replaced in.

Downgrade to leaning-town.

Yeah Faraday... But your posts in general seem so town, that it's hard to find you scummy... If that's not redundant..... I guess what it really is is that there's nothing in your posts that can be considered scummy, as far as I can tell.... Hmm.... Does that make you scummy?

Whoa, MafiaMann's at L-1?... To hammer or not to hammer, that is the question.... 3 Days and seven hours left... If nothing is done before that deadline clock hits two and zero, then I'm-a-gonna-hammah!

Downgrade to neutral.

[Xylthixlm]

Hayker: Your only hope is to convince roflcopter that someone else is scummier than you are.

speaking of lists of who i'm willing to lynch:
mastin
fallen angel
hayker
mafiamann

lets make it happen

So roflcopter, how are you doing on that list?

[Xylthixlm]

An observation. I know, kill speculation, kinda bad/possibly rolefishing, but this is interesting info.
Sotty7, Emerald Townie - Slaughtered Night Zero
elvis_knits, Emerald Jailkeeper - Murdered Night Zero
Konowa, Cerulean Mafia Doctor - Annihilated Night Zero
MafiaMann, Emerald Townie - Lynched Day One
Seryna Kise, Emerald Townie - Slaughtered Night One
nadroj15 ZazieR, Vermillion Mafia Goon - Murdered Night One
Mufasa, Emerald Neighbour - Annihilated Night One

There's three possibilities here:
1) Cerulean = murdered, vermillion = annihilated, ??? = slaughtered
2) Cerulean = murdered, vermillion = slaughtered, ??? = annihilated
3) Cerulean = slaughtered, vermillion = annihilated, ??? = murdered

The idea of a 4th killer is pretty farfetched.

I'm not even going to take a guess at which of those three possibilities is right.

[Xylthixlm]

My actions are a coin. Intention-wise, it's either anti-town or pro-town.
Doesn't give you my role or alignment. Making it null.
Neither pro-town in role, nor pro-scum in role.

My bullshit detector just redlined.

unvote, vote Mastin

[Xylthixlm]

can we lynch mastin now? he's just going to continue trying to use his fake rb claim to spin farfetched theories and try to score mislynches with them.

Rofl, how is mastin playing compared to Lynch all Lurkers?

All I remember about Mastin in Lynch All Lurkers is that he replaced a lurker, lurked, and got lynched for lurking. And came up scum.

Reading his posts it looks like he did some nightkill speculation, posted the standard "replacing in, here are my thoughts" posts, and then vanished for 72h followed by a flurry of trying not to get lynched (unsuccessfully).

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not even going to take a guess at which of those three possibilities is right.

How come?

Insufficient data.

[Xylthixlm]

can we lynch mastin now? he's just going to continue trying to use his fake rb claim to spin farfetched theories and try to score mislynches with them.

So first you are voting Hayker, then you suddenly switch your vote over to Mastin, and now you are extremely eager to lynch him without even hearing a response from him?

FoS: rofl

That's pretty normal for roflcopter.

Possible Wickedestjr/Mastin scumbuddy tell here.

[Xylthixlm]

Phail.

Vote: VP Baltar

Still phail, you typoed "VP Baltar" for "Mastin".

[Xylthixlm]

So far this fits roflcopter's town play.

[Xylthixlm]

Hayker, that too.

Xyl, people keep saying that. I don't understand why this is town play though. How is it different from his scum play?

Based on what I recall from going over a few of his scum games, he tends to explain what he's doing more when he's scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, people keep saying that. I don't understand why this is town play though. How is it different from his scum play?

it is not (pro)town play....I have never played with him as scum....

It's an extreme gut-based playstyle. It's not unreadable, you just need to read it differently.

[Xylthixlm]

Based on what I recall from going over a few of his scum games, he tends to explain what he's doing more when he's scum.

QED'd, bitches! Sorry, but that's not exactly hugely comforting evidence. How would you read him if he was scum?

If he was scum and

not

explaining what he's doing? I'd look for a few things. You need a high tolerance for suspicion to pull off that playstyle, so I'd look for evidence that he cares if people find his playstyle scummy. I'd also look for signs that he's holding back opinions or lurking more than normal. And I normally have

some

idea what he's thinking, so I'd get worried if I didn't have any.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl and Namtam, what are you opinions on ckool?

Haven't read ckool yet. This post is to remind myself to do so when I have time.

[Xylthixlm]

i'm still paranoid about people attempting to save mastin. however, i'm virtually positive baltar is town so his attempt to get the alternative wagon going isn't as unsettling as kmd's.

^ this is town-roflcopter to my eye

[Xylthixlm]

Wicked, I already answered all of the things you mentioned.

Link/post #?

[Xylthixlm]

But the

town

scum

perspective is that you don't want to "clear"

scum

town

, so you do everything you can to question someone being confirmed before you treat them as such.

Fixed.

[Xylthixlm]

molestargazer, do you think Mastin is scummy? Why or why not?

[Xylthixlm]

This could just be a lost in translation thing, but I dont' like the relationship between Xyl and rofl. It looks like Xyl could clear anything based on an ill-defined meta read.

Try reading some of roflcopter's town games to see how he usually plays as town.

[Xylthixlm]

molestargazer, do you think Mastin is scummy? Why or why not?

I will get back to you as soon as I've caught up.
If I don't, remind me, I'll have forgotten.

So... you voted roflcopter for his attack on Mastin without bothering to actually decide if Mastin is scummy?

I need to take a closer look at molestargazer.

[Xylthixlm]

...I'm seriously crying right now...

I have no idea what arguements to answer, since none of them make a lick of sense to me.

unvote, vote ckool5000

[Xylthixlm]

His playstyle so far, I think, is scummy. Right now, I think it's worthy of my vote.

At least you're aware that you're voting him for his playstyle.

[Xylthixlm]

Could you please elaborate? Explain (even if just shortly) what you're reading which makes you think he isn't scum?

I'm not sure he isn't scum, but I do think his suspicions are genuine. The fact that there are multiple scumgroups makes him harder to read because he could be on one group and thinks he's found someone on the other. Anyways, his play really reads like he's got an honest belief that Mastin is scum, even if he can't explain why, and he's trying to get Mastin lynched and doesn't care if that makes him look scummy doing so.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm having trouble believing that a mafia would kill Konowa.

Konowa, when he/she signed up for this game, hadn't played a single game of mafia yet! He/she signed up for one, but never actually played one. Would a newbie's likeliness to be lynched make the mafia want to kill them?... Probably not.

Does this make MafiaMann innocent?... I have no idea.

unvote

Thinking.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote, vote: mastin

ckool: if mastin flips scum you should kill kmd tonight, if he flips town you should kill me

Wait what?

[Xylthixlm]

Confusing the mafia is good, but not confusing the town is even better.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote, vote: mastin

ckool: if mastin flips scum you should kill kmd tonight, if he flips town you should kill me

Wait what?

i'm going to end up getting lynched anyway, better to vig me and let the town move on

Who are you and what have you done with roflcopter

[Xylthixlm]

Votes being used as pressure seems rather commen here. I don't see what's wrong with it. Not every vote needs to be merely to lynch someone, it limits your options too much.

If you

admit

that it's just a pressure vote and you don't really want to lynch then target, then it doesn't actually apply any pressure. Duh.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: Mastin

I like this bandwagon.

[Xylthixlm]

I move that we don't vote for Mastin any more until he comes in and speaks. His lurking is getting ridiculous at this point. Of course, it's also reminiscent of the scum meta he provided.

He posted in Little Italy 5 minutes ago.

[Xylthixlm]

Yeah, he's been posting plenty since his last time here, so it is definitely intentional. We have plenty of time to deadline however, and I'm sure if he continues along this route he will have a massive prod coming his way.

Heck no. Lynch him. Intentional lurkers deserve to die.

[Xylthixlm]

Yea, yea, was V/LA; just now got back. It's going to take time to catch up.

I count 20 posts by Mastin in other threads in the 24 hours before this post.

Lynch all liars, please.

[Xylthixlm]

can we lynch mastin now? he's just going to continue trying to use his fake rb claim to spin farfetched theories and try to score mislynches with them.

So first you are voting Hayker, then you suddenly switch your vote over to Mastin, and now you are extremely eager to lynch him without even hearing a response from him?

FoS: rofl

That's pretty normal for roflcopter.

Possible Wickedestjr/Mastin scumbuddy tell here.

vote: Wickedestjr

[Xylthixlm]

Also, Emp's neighbor flip is surprising. I didn't see anything to connect him to Mufasa.

Emp makes a lousy unconfirmed mason, he plays it like townie

I was trying to lynch you BEFORE you were right. Oh, and it's still possible that either you bussed or are on the other scumteam.

And you're still trying to lynch him? Bad Kmd.

xyl, who do you think is vermillion mafia

I thought Mastin was vermillion mafia. I need to do some reading.

You're right. If you are scum, there are probably 4. Thanks.

You're crazy.

having just skimmed namtamm in iso, kmd may get a reprieve. i'm pretty sure 3 members per team is all that makes sense, and namtamm is literally

screaming

mastin-scumpartner.

and kmd, if you think baltar had a guilty on mastin, why would he vote someone other than mastin when the mastin wagon reignited at the end of yesterday?

I'd be willing to go for Namttam. His posts bothered me yesterday, I'll take a look and see if I can remember why.

i think there are three members of each team, meaning only one cerulean left. i also think that the vermillion mafia currently want to look like they're hunting for mastin's scumpartner, but they also want to be wrong so they can continue hunting for mastin' scumpartner in the future and continue ignoring the vermillion mafia. trying to lynch me on the basis of thinking i'm mastin's scumpartner fits this framework. also, i already thought hayker was scummy, and if kmd (or namtamm) are the last cerulean, that only leaves vermillion for hayker to be.

This sounds correct.

1. xyl (he's targeting you as cerulean, ignoring vermillion altogether, thus my earlier q to him of "who's vermillion").

[Xylthixlm]

Konowa, Cerulean Mafia Doctor - Annihilated Night Zero -

Killed by ckool

Mufasa, Emerald Neighbour - Annihilated Night One -

Killed by ckool

Empking's Alt, Emerald Neighbour - Annihilated Night Two -

Killed by ckool

Sotty7, Emerald Townie - Slaughtered Night Zero -

Killed by vermillion

Seryna Kise, Emerald Townie - Slaughtered Night One -

Killed by vermillion

ckool5000, Emerald Vigilante - Slaughtered Night Two -

Killed by vermillion

elvis_knits, Emerald Jailkeeper - Murdered Night Zero -

Killed by cerulean

nadroj15

ZazieR, Vermillion Mafia Goon - Murdered Night One -

Killed by cerulean

Johnny Rotten

VP Baltar, Emerald Cop - Murdered Night Two -

Killed by cerulean

[Xylthixlm]

You don't think he could have bussed or that he could be Vermillion?

Bus, unlikely. I'd say very unlikely except for his vig-me-if-I'm-wrong antics. Vermillion, possible. This could either be rofl-town or rofl-hunting-other-scumteam. But I don't see any evidence that he's not playing town.

[Xylthixlm]

I still think townies could have accused you of this. I doubt mafia would deliberately try and get rid of somebody for a bad reason that they even think is bad.

Humans are amazing at lying to themselves. It's called "cognitive dissonance". It's a great scumtell if you can spot it.

[Xylthixlm]

I still think townies could have accused you of this. I doubt mafia would deliberately try and get rid of somebody for a bad reason that they even think is bad.

Humans are amazing at lying to themselves. It's called "cognitive dissonance". It's a great scumtell if you can spot it.

And this is only done by scum?

Nothing is

only

done by scum.

[Xylthixlm]

@Hayker: Stop making posts like 185 & 186. It's bad enough that ZazieR and Mastin post mostly nonsense posts. Don't emulate them.

I saw Zazie comment on this quote as well, but unfortunately I could not find where the actual post was. But anyway, I don't really like this comment. First of all: Hayker didn't make post 186, so your only real evidence for this complaint is post 185 unless you made a mistake and can identify the real post you were talking about. Second of all: It has already been discussed that Mastin and Zaz have been contributing to the scum hunting. While they may post a lot of nonsense, I find that a majority of the content in their posts is helping the game roll along. Third of all: What do you find to be nonsense in Hayker's posts?


I agree that I don't think JR's vote for Mastin is a pretty great one. It doesn't have a very good reason, and like I said before, a majority of the content in Mastin's posts contain scum hunting contribution.

Seems like Wickedestjr is the last Cerulean, or completely bonkers.

Still hunting Vermillion. Namttam looks promising.

[Xylthixlm]

Like I said, I feel that I was one of the few players that attacked Mastin the most. I don't think you replied to that.

What changed your mind from day 1, when you said he was "contributing to the scum hunting" and "helping the game roll along"?

Why do you think Namttam is Vermillion?

If Namttam is scum and you're Cerulean, that would make Namttam Vermillion. Duh.

[Xylthixlm]

i don't like wicked for cerulean

Vermillion, then?

[Xylthixlm]

I think I should just hunt scum and leave the cerulean/vermillion speculation to other people.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote, vote: mastin

ckool: if mastin flips scum you should kill kmd tonight, if he flips town you should kill me

Works for me even at the risk that Mastin actually is scum. It's just one more way that my top suspect can be eliminated.

Unvote, Vote Mastin

I think we can rule out Kmd as Cerulean scum here.

Still - Kmd, why did you think Mastin was so town that you would agree to be vigged if he wasn't?

[Xylthixlm]

Could you summarize your case on roflcopter again in light of Mastin's flip?

[Xylthixlm]

Reasons I think roflcopter is town:
1) Defense of Kublai Khan
2) Attempts to get Mastin lynched
3) Attack on me (misguided)
4) Doing whatever it takes to kill scum

Reasons I'm not sure roflcopter is town:
1) Willingness to be vigged as a distraction

[Xylthixlm]

Kmd, you don't think Mastin's flip affects your case at all?

[Xylthixlm]

Could you summarize your case on roflcopter again

in light of Mastin's flip?

Re-pasting your case from yesterday does not answer this

[Xylthixlm]

To be clear, do you mean this is a scumpoint against him OR do you mean that you aren't using this as reasoning why he is town.

Scumpoint against him.

Rofl, more organized version of my case that I found by viewing my own posts:
-lurked
-only went after easy targets
-predetermined who was votable a little early
-Declared Khan town on next to nothing, very early in the game
-buddies to Khan by giving him and award for "knowing what to do".
-Wrong on Mastin's vote. He called it OMGUS, not a policy miller vote.
-Takes the easy Mastin vote, apparently knowing his meta
-Comment on the NK
-threatened to vote MM over asking for reasons for your vote

I count 4 of the 8 points here are attacking roflcopter for thinking Kublai Khan was town (apparently correct) and Mastin was scum (definitely correct). And you think this doesn't have any effect on your case?

[Xylthixlm]

Crossposted yay.

[Xylthixlm]

To be clear, do you mean this is a scumpoint against him OR do you mean that you aren't using this as reasoning why he is town.

Scumpoint against him.

Why? As Mastin's buddy, he leaves himself alone as the last scum on his team facing 2 opposing scum, assuming 3 on each side. As Vermilion, he can't be THAT confident in Mastin's alignment and ends up fucking himself if Mastin is town.

It was more I couldn't make sense of it from rofl-town, and roflcopter worries me when I can't figure out what he's up to. Faraday has convinced me that it was reasonable from rofl-town's POV.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, we agree that rofl is probably town then?

Yes.

[Xylthixlm]

WickedestJr looks worse and worse the more he posts.

molestargazer and SerialClergyman look town.

No, I'm not scum, thanks for asking.

[Xylthixlm]

One of the reasons that I think my idea could make sense, is the fact that all games have mind games within them. Mafia is a particularily good example of a game where mind games come in all the time. In fact, mafia is one giant cluster**** of a mind game. Mind games can be done in many, many different ways. One particular mind game, is for a "good" player, doing a "bad" move. This often makes a once terrible move, into a glorious Solar idea(cookie for referance). I play witht the assumption that mind games will come into play from many different angles, because mind games tend toi be very effective. Well, if done correctly anyways. Some times they crash and burn, but hey, every mind game has a downside.

Either Hayker has gone down the rabbit hole and is having tea with the Mad Hatter, or this is brilliant bullshit. I'm not sure which.

[Xylthixlm]

I have this feeling like a few people aren't posting:
Achilles
Lowell
curiouskarmadog
Faraday

This post is a note to myself that they're the ones to look at if I want a lurker hunt.

[Xylthixlm]

The lack of support for lynching Wickedestjr makes me

[Xylthixlm]

I am unsure on Hayker. Wickedestjr seems scummier, but it's quite possible they're both scum.

[Xylthixlm]

if hayker flips scum i'm looking at xylscum partner. kmd is just being too blatant.

namtamm-molestargazer is another pair i have my eye on.

faraday and ckd are both town

Think back to lynch all

lookers

lurkers and zwet vs Tajo

If hayker is scum and wicked isn't you might have a case

[Xylthixlm]

sounds like its time for you to go back and either figure out where and why you decided he was town or reevaluate your position

Nah. I trust my read and I don't see a convincing case.

Now do that for a whole game and you'll have roflcopter's playstyle.

[Xylthixlm]

Muhhhhhh.

We're supposed to force a partner claim here, I think.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm pretty sure that the theoretically correct move here is to force the mason partner claim, but it's so obvious that it's Kmd4390 that I don't think we need to bother.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, why do you think that? Because I've defended him so hard?

Because it's the best explanation for your hypocritical "It's a gut read, no I don't remember why, no I'm not going to look, yes I'm still going to defend him" thing.

[Xylthixlm]

WickedestJr looks worse and worse the more he posts.

Care to elaborate? Your only reason for voting me so far was that you thought me and Mastin were scumbuddies. Sounds like scum going for an easy lynch.

Every post of yours is scummy. Anyone who views you in iso should see it.

[Xylthixlm]

I like the fact that Wickedestjr simultaneously claims that there is no case on him, but attacking him is going for an easy lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

Is anyone willing to read Wickedestjr's posts in iso and go on record as saying they are

not

scummy?

[Xylthixlm]

Kmd, I think you messed that up, Vermillion would be the ones who want to be wrong according to roflcopter.

You aren't Hayker's masonbuddy? Drat.

[Xylthixlm]

xyl would not have bussed mastin. he's vermillion or he's town.

he's vermillion.

2 out of 3 right

[Xylthixlm]

unvote

[Xylthixlm]

btw, now that wicked is confirmed town, xyl's little "everyone should see why wicked is so scummy" song and dance looks even worse.

pile on those votes guys.

Are you even considering the possibility that I might be town

[Xylthixlm]

hey xyl, who's more likely to be vermillion mafia, namtamm or kmd?

I stopped trying to figure out who is in which mafia a while back

[Xylthixlm]

But to answer the question, I have a feeling Kmd is town, which would make it more likely namttam

[Xylthixlm]

I think people who are deciding which class of scum to lynch are really pushing their own ability to find scum. Either that or they're just a hell of a lot better than me at it. If I was sure that the person I was targeting was scum I'd lynch them, regardless of which faction they belong to.

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

Wickedestjr needs to confirm or deny the mason claim before

anything else happens

.

[Xylthixlm]

First we need to have Wickedestjr come in and confirm/deny the masonry.

Please hold all discussion

until after that happens. If Wickedestjr is town it won't change anything, and if he is scum I don't want to give him any extra information to help him decide his claim.

[Xylthixlm]

if there is a 4th neighbor, now would actually be a great time for that person to come forward and confirm mole's story.

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

roflcopter- given that my scumhunting style is mostly based on behavioral tells rather than partnering tells, why do you think I would have

any

ability to figure out what scumteam someone belongs to before lynching them? Based on historical data you'd be better off flipping a coin than asking me.

[Xylthixlm]

lynch xyl now kthx

No seriously, explain why you think this is inconsistent with my town play.

[Xylthixlm]

lynch xyl now kthx

No seriously, explain why you think this is inconsistent with my town play.

not necessary. i've already laid out what makes you scum. you have presented no rebuttal, so i don't need to prove any further how this is inconsistent with your play as town.

You've explained why you think my play makes sense with me as scum, but you haven't explained why you don't think it makes sense with me as town. If my play is what I would do in either case, it isn't a scumtell and you know it.

[Xylthixlm]

Your case is bullshit because you aren't even considering the possibility that I might be town as an option.

There, I responded to your case.

[Xylthixlm]

I agree to a degree about Xyl, but the points that get me more than the emoticon defence or selective scumhunting are the logical issues, especially the logic that went 'Namttam is scummy with Mastin therefore he's Vermillion scum' - 'Mastin wasn't Vermillion' - 'Yeah but if Wicked is Cerulean, Namttam must be Vermillon'. That whole logical progression was rubbish.

I am guilty of not actually caring which scumteam people I find scummy are on. I answered the question based on the first thing that popped into my mind when roflcopter asked.

[Xylthixlm]

So let's see if I understand this

I brought up a possible partner-based tell on Wickedestjr. Because I linked him to Mastin, and therefore thought he's Cerulean, roflcopter accused me of selective scumhunting. Mastin came up Vermillion, and now roflcopter is pressing the case that ... I am selectively scumhunting for Ceruleans by linking people to Vermillions?

If you believe that I have a bridge in brooklyn to sell you

[Xylthixlm]

Your case is bullshit because you aren't even considering the possibility that I might be town as an option.

There, I responded to your case.

the possibility was considered, but i find the probability that you're scum to be much greater, and i find you to be the scummiest player period.

saying that i am not considering that you could be town is bullshit and you know it. this is how scumhunting works.

Then you should be able to say why you don't think I could be town, but you're avoiding the question instead

[Xylthixlm]

roflcopter, I don't believe for a second that your bullshit argument about selective scumhunting is your only reason you think I'm scum. Please fill in the rest of the town on your real reasons

[Xylthixlm]

So let's see if I understand this

I brought up a possible partner-based tell on Wickedestjr. Because I linked him to Mastin, and therefore thought he's Cerulean, roflcopter accused me of selective scumhunting. Mastin came up Vermillion, and now roflcopter is pressing the case that ... I am selectively scumhunting for Ceruleans by linking people to Vermillions?

If you believe that I have a bridge in brooklyn to sell you

Wait, Mastin

was

Cerulean

shit, I need to do this when I'm awake

[Xylthixlm]

Anyways, roflcopter is making a case of selective scumhunting based on one single data point. I guess the single data point does fit the case, it's just a really weak case. If roflcopter honestly believes based on that one thing that I'm the scummiest player in the game I don't think it's possible to convince him otherwise

[Xylthixlm]

Argh. The mason claims don't fit. If there are six neighbors & masons, there are as many neighbors & masons as there are scum, unless the scumteams are larger than 3 people each...

I think I agree with roflcopter on not test-lynching a mason today and instead hoping that the scum kill one of them. I'm still not convinced they're town though

I'm still thinking that roflcopter is town, he has a history of suspecting me when I'm town in other games (War in Heaven II really pops out, but he was also suspicious in Lynch All Lurkers)

The comment was meant to indicate that Zazie seems to be thinking similar to me on a number of issues, I believe if people are thinking similar to me, or asking similar questions then it makes them more likely to be town, as they're scumhunting.

Faraday, got anything to add to this now?

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, you're strawmanning my case against you. you've ignored the whole part about how your push against wicked was scummy.

Uh, that part is so self-evidently bullshit I didn't think it needed a response.

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, you're strawmanning my case against you. you've ignored the whole part about how your push against wicked was scummy.

Uh, that part is so self-evidently bullshit I didn't think it needed a response.

I should qualify this

If rofl is saying that

how

he pushed wicked was scummy he is ignoring that this is how I usually push people

If rofl is saying that pushing wicked

at all

was scummy then he's smoking something

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, your apparent disdain for my suspicion of you notwithstanding, the wagon speaks for itself

You, wicked, Lowell, and curiouskarmadog. I expect the curse of Xyl to kick in any moment now

[Xylthixlm]

Vote: Xyl

-He tried to lynch a player without even giving reasons.
-He is being lazy.
-He hasn't posted many opinions on other players.

rofl, do you think these points against me are correct?

[Xylthixlm]

so roflcopter - did you think wickedestjr was scummy before the claim, or not?

[Xylthixlm]

This post seems to be a cornerstone of roflcopter's case so I'll just reconstruct what I was thinking when I wrote it

Is anyone willing to read Wickedestjr's posts in iso and go on record as saying they are

not

scummy?

I was riding the bus on the way to work, and thinking about my (gut) case on Wickedestjr. Obviously since I was not giving much in the way of reasons he had no way of defending himself, and there was of course a possibility I was totally wrong. I was playing through the inevitable conversation - "How am I supposed to defend myself" "Just find someone who's willing to tell me I'm wrong about you being scummy" - and realized that I didn't need to wait for wickedestjr to bring it up, I could just ask for the reality check myself. I figured that if he's scum, his scumbuddies would be hesitant to go on record defending him, and if they did it would be something to link them later. And if I really was just crazy, some townie should come out and say so. I get a check on my read, and help build connections if he turns out to be scum. Win-win.

[Xylthixlm]

so roflcopter - did you think wickedestjr was scummy before the claim, or not?

not particularly. i found him less scummy because you were voting him, actually

So wait

You found him less scummy because you thought I was scum and I was voting him

You found me scummy because I was voting him and you didn't think he was scum

Do I have the logic right there?

[Xylthixlm]

So your real assumption here is that I care which sort of scum I lynch, and therefore the fact that I was voting someone who I should think is Cerulean is the wrong move

First, your assumption that I care which scum I lynch is wrong

Second, even if I can tie someone to one scumteam or another, we want to lynch Cerulean first and eliminate them to reduce the number of nightkills. If we got Cerulean today that would put us in a very good position for the rest of the game (assuming 3 scum per team)

Once you've got that out of the way, you're basically voting me for voting someone based mostly on gut, which you know very well is part of my normal town play

[Xylthixlm]

Actually scratch that second point, lynching Vermillion is better. I always get the relative power of 1st and 2nd mafia on a team confused

[Xylthixlm]

Of course, as said before, I'd be perfectly happy lynching either one

[Xylthixlm]

I am an Emerald Neighbour. My neighbour was Empking's Alt - and only him. This evidently means that there is another neighbour pairing in Mufasa and someone else.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote, vote mastin

. I am mufasa's alt.

Hmmmmmm.

[Xylthixlm]

If the power role density in the remaining protown players is anything like the density in the dead protown players, 4 members in each mafia is a distinct (and scary) possibility.

[Xylthixlm]

I went back to look at this, thinking wicked's "result" might have been a mason breadcrumb if it was on hayker, but no it wasn't. It's still really strange. It totally looks like a backpedal. This was a big reason for my attack on wicked.

I got an innocent result from Kmd last night too. I was just interested in hearing what others thought about him. I am not worried about Kmd being suspicious of me. He said it was only gut any way.

Oh, I read Kmd in iso last night. And I got a town read on him. Sorry that I worded that strangely.

Wicked, can you reconstruct the thought process that caused you to word "I got a town read" as "I got an innocent result"?

[Xylthixlm]

Wicked, can you reconstruct the thought process that caused you to word "I got a town read" as "I got an innocent result"?

If this is one of the reasons for why you wanted me lynch, then why did you not say it until now?

I usually start bandwagons without giving all (or any) of my reasons. It helps figure out who is actually scumhunting.

Also, when I said I got an innocent result, I meant the result from my iso reading of him. I am sure I have said this somewhere else.

I know that's what you said. I want to know if you can explain what would lead you to make that mistake in the first place.

[Xylthixlm]

VC = vote count

"Neighbour" is another name for unconfirmed mason

Strawman is the classical logical fallacy where you misrepresent your opponent's argument then attack the misrepresentation

[Xylthixlm]

Do you know the difference between a "read" and a "result"?

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm, wicked is assuming that the scumgroups are symmetrical.

[Xylthixlm]

I have a feeling Hayker will be with us day 3.

Breadcrumb?

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman, I'm a bit concerned about that one post because I think roflcopter misinterpreted it - I really honestly wanted someone to come forward and say "no, you're wrong" if there was someone. I'll leave it alone from here on, but since I'm the only one who knows what I was thinking when I wrote it, I added that to the discussion.

Nice "overly defensive" attack. I'm trying to bludgeon roflcopter back to his senses. I can't tell yet whether it's working. My bludgeoning on Kmd worked, so I have hope.

(For the record, that 4 minutes included checking the formula for mafia power in the IRC bot:

Code: Select all

$power += $num->{$team} * 3.00 - 1.60;

so the second member of a given mafia is more than twice as dangerous as the first. I frequently remember it backwards and have to check.)


I'm still trying to convince myself of Wickedestjr's alignment one way or another. Part of my problem here is that I'm having trouble finding good suspects - my best one just claimed mason, I have a gut read on namttam but no evidence, and nobody else seems particularly scummy. I've been doing iso reads trying to find stuff, but nothing jumps out yet. (This is why you keep seeing me dredge up random quotes from previous days.)

[Xylthixlm]

Hayker, what do you make of the neighbor claims?

[Xylthixlm]

Lowell, your thoughts on every player in the game.

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm, wicked is assuming that the scumgroups are symmetrical.

I'm assuming the neighbour groups are symmetrical.

Not a great assumption IMO.

Breadcrumb?

Well, I wouldn't have said it if we weren't masons.

This makes me believe your claim a lot more.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: Lowell

[Xylthixlm]

Same player slot, not same person.

[Xylthixlm]

Funny how Spy is right about everyone who has

already flipped

.

This is the fundamental reason why I don't put too much weight on opinions in replacement/catching-up posts.

That applies to Lowell too.

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX's megatown/leaning town list matches up with mine, at least. (Well, I'd put myself megatown, but only because I know my own alignment.)

[Xylthixlm]

Hey roflcopter, who would you rather lynch, namttam or lowell? Or do you want to just continue tilting at me for a while?

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX - one correction to your list. I'd put even money on Lowell being the mafia neighbor, not a goon.

[Xylthixlm]

So... you think we have six town masons/neighbors and six scum? Seriously?

[Xylthixlm]

I meant roflcopter, who listed 3 scum (for a total of 6 with the dead scum) including none of the claimed masons/neighbors.

[Xylthixlm]

You didn't have 6

town

masons/neighbors.

[Xylthixlm]

The day's going pretty quick but since one of the two wagon's is on me(who is town) and the other is on someone I find likely to be scum, I will

unvote, vote Namttam

[Xylthixlm]

I'm an Emerald Townie. No magic role to save me unfortunately. I still would like to hear reasons for everyone's votes on me, please don't hammer before that. I have nothing to respond to. So that means SC, Kmd, SpyreX, Xyl, and KK. Could I get reasons for your votes? (Not so much Xyl since I already understand your reason) I think all the scum are already on my wagon so the remaining town don't hammer until we hear some reasons.

You're not one of the people I think are town (which is pretty much the same as SpyreX's list - this gives me a good feeling about SpyreX). There is a bandwagon on you, driven largely by people I think are town. Right now I don't feel like trying to divert the bandwagon from you to Lowell. And yes, I would like to avoid being lynched today and lynch a scum instead, preferably Vermillion because that will return roflcopter to productive scumhunting.

[Xylthixlm]

Namttam has been posting a lot of words but avoiding taking strong positions on issues. I think that's the biggest reason for my gut read on him.

[Xylthixlm]

Nobody takes anything I say at face value any more...

His running dialogue of catching up is horrible. In my case, I'm reading through while staring at a list of dead players and their roles. He's trying to look town by doing it "blind" and seeming like he doesn't have anything or anyone to protect.

4) People who look REALLY bad:

wicked

I thought you were trying to look town by doing it "blind". Odd.

[Xylthixlm]

July 20

not sure that I agree with rofl that xyl is scummy though, the only scummy thing I have seen Xyl do it follow/buddy up with rofl. going to read again.

July 21

vote xyl

, rofl was right about mastin

[Xylthixlm]

No I was trying to give honest assesments as I saw them of LIVING players. You'll notice the already-dead don't appear in my town or scumlists. Unlike Spy, who wants us all to see how town he thinks ckool is.

But you're still contradicting later information. So is SpyreX. I don't see the difference.

[Xylthixlm]

hey roflcopter, remember War In Heaven II?

[Xylthixlm]

Also, answer this:

Possible, but not probable.

I'd put heavy money on if we lynched up my list the game would end before we got anywhere near Xyl.

i'd put heavy money on the following being the scum:
xyl - vermillion mafia doctor
kmd - vermillion mafia roleblocker
nam - cerulean mafia goon

So... you think we have six town masons/neighbors and six scum? Seriously?

[Xylthixlm]

hey xyl, referring to a game where you were town doesn't make you town in this game

Do you remember why you thought I was scum in WIH2?

[Xylthixlm]

Also, answer this:

Possible, but not probable.

I'd put heavy money on if we lynched up my list the game would end before we got anywhere near Xyl.

i'd put heavy money on the following being the scum:
xyl - vermillion mafia doctor
kmd - vermillion mafia roleblocker
nam - cerulean mafia goon

So... you think we have six town masons/neighbors and six scum? Seriously?

yes

Are you completely insane?

[Xylthixlm]

I thought I had addressed your case against me

It started with something about me being scum because I was selectively scumhunting because I wanted to lynch Wickedestjr instead of Hayker, as I recall

[Xylthixlm]

Refresh my memory?

[Xylthixlm]

BTW roflcopter, if by "disprove your argument" you mean show that I would never act like I have if I was scum, you should know perfectly well that's impossible... because if I can explain why I wouldn't do something as scum, then I would know that as scum too, and so might have done it to look town. My only possible defense is pointing out that everything I've done makes sense for me to do as town, but you totally refuse to consider that argument.

[Xylthixlm]

the only basis provided for voting wicked is a "possible wicked/mastin scumbuddy tell." no denying that this is selective scumhunting at its finest.

Not the only basis, just the only one I provided.

xyl, who do you think is vermillion mafia

I thought Mastin was vermillion mafia. I need to do some reading.

stalling when called out to actually look for vermillion mafia instead of mastin's scumpartner

Have I not been rereading?

but apparently willing to follow me on someone i find to be a likely mastin scumparner. let me just say again - selective scumhunting

Hmm.

the emoticon defense - i am unmoved. this may or may not qualify as an appeal to emotion. it certainly qualifies as xyl not actually defending himself against the point i made.

I'm defending myself about 10x as much as I usually do

still not providing a real reason for his wicked vote, rather he gives us a version of the classic "he's either scum or he's stupid," which is a classic in the sense that scum have been using that to pre-emptively excuse their mislynches since the dawn of time.
and xyl is also still stalling on the vermillion front

My real reason was that he's scummy as hell. Seriously. How many people need to say wicked was scummy as hell before you'll believe wicked was actually scummy as hell. SpyreX? Lowell?

Wicked himself?

As for hunting vermillion vs cerulean, I've decided to refuse to guess which scumteam someone is on because I'm usually wrong.

so far, the only reason xyl has voiced for even suspecting namtamm is agreement with my proposal that namtamm looks connected to mastin (cerulean), yet here he flips namtamm to his vermillion column without ever explaining anything else that makes nam scummy, simply because he's confirmation-biasing wicked as absolutely cerulean.

Namttam is scummy. I don't remember why.

As for "flipping to vermillion column",

I AM NOT SCUMHUNTING BY PUTTING PEOPLE IN TOWN VS VERMILLION VS CERULEAN COLUMNS, I AM SCUMHUNTING BY PUTTING PEOPLE IN TOWN VS NOT-TOWN AND THEN PULLING OUT RANDOM ASSED GUESSES IF SOMEONE ASKS ME WHAT SORT OF SCUM I THINK SOMEONE IS.

i don't like wicked for cerulean

Vermillion, then?

no, nice try

See above

by now it seems xyl has realized he can't convincingly hunt vermillion, so he makes a lame excuse to continue his selective scumhunting ways. xyl is an

extremely

experienced mafia player, so he should know as well as anyone that hunting for vermillion ought to be as simple as reading for connections with zazie, but instead he's playing stupid.

I'll give you a hint: most IRC games are 5-9 players, and have at most two mafia and an SK. You don't look for connections to link people to specific scumteams because

there's only one multiple-player scumteam in 99.9% of games

. Congratulations, you've found a scumhunting technique which I have no experience in using.

note to self - emoticons = appeal to emotion
up to this point xyl has still given zero reason beyond a vague possibility of connection to mastin for a wicked wagon.

You know I often vote with little or no reason, so the only reason you find this scummy is you disagree on Wicked. Fine.

Every post of yours is scummy. Anyone who views you in iso should see it.

this is a clever way of saying "if you don't agree with me you're stupid. you're not stupid are you?"

This is a clever way of saying "read wicked's posts and tell me I'm wrong"

Is anyone willing to read Wickedestjr's posts in iso and go on record as saying they are

not

scummy?

this is the same thing but worse

And this is saying it directly

Believe it or not, I realize that sometimes I'm wrong. Disagreeing with me does not make you stupid except when I'm right.

have you even considered the possibility of actually defending yourself?

Normally I avoid it, because people start saying things like "too defensive" and "squirming".

your excuses, they just don't cut it

I don't have a better reason because it's true

Out of time, more later

[Xylthixlm]

You're probably right about the selectively targeting Mastin interactions thing, though. It might have something to do with the fact that

Zazie was already dead when I replaced in, so the only interactions I actually saw were with Mastin

.

[Xylthixlm]

Rofl says defend, then one of his points against me is defending via self-meta. The only other sort of defense I know is pointing out that what I've done makes just as much sense for town as for scum, but you refuse to even consider that. If your goal is to get a lynch on me regardless of my alignment you're doing a fine job, but you obviously have no intention of paying attention to anything I say. I'm done responding to you until you show some sign of listening.

[Xylthixlm]

Better yet, instead of saying why my play is consistent with me being scum, which can never be disproved if I'm as good as you think, tell me why it's INCONSISTENT with me being town. That I can disprove.

[Xylthixlm]

I had just woken up and hadn't had any caffeine yet, so yes.

[Xylthixlm]

Pacific. And yes, I generally wake up late. Feel free to check when my first post of the day usually is

[Xylthixlm]

Nam talks about Mastin a lot. A real lot. A huge chunk of his posts.

He talks over, under, between and around Mastin.

But never, ever, ever TO Mastin.

Incredibly, incredibly scummy if true.

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX's point against Namttam checks out.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm at L-2. Wickedestjr unvoted me, then revoted.

[Xylthixlm]

For that matter, I don't believe scum would defend their partner so heavily.

WIFOM. If you don't think scum would defend their partner heavily, then you

would

defend your partner heavily, since you would think people wouldn't expect you to do that.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyone who didn't understand why I made any of those votes please speak up

[Xylthixlm]

Is anyone else getting a weird feeling from Namttam's posts recently? He's defending like scum, but attacking like town. I'm thinking it's because he's Cerulean and actually believes rofl's case that I'm Vermillion.

[Xylthixlm]

Reading the first post is scummy??

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman: I presume you mean posts before SpyreX's iso post 11, which is the point at which he's all caught up.

Here they are, all together:

Sup, replacement in the house (not even sure who I replaced yet).

I'll be playing catchup now.
-
Up to page 28 and I swear if you haven't killed Mastin the "OHH GOD I AM SO SCUM IT IS OOZING FROM MY PORES" I will kill a kitten.

There are others.
-
Another note:

Seriously. Follow me here.

Megaposts are like chocolate. They are nice every once in a while.

Instead, we have a bunch of fat babies who probably can't roll over anymore. My lord almighty. GET ON A TREADMILL
-
@Rofl, Lowell, Faraday, Empkings Alt, Mufasa via 34-35:

WHAT IN THE HELL?

Not all 5 of you can be scum. No way.

What in the hell was that. Seriously.
-
Ohh Zaz was scum what a surprise there

We hath a pro-town killing role as well. Guaranteed.
-
I swear to god if ckool is the lynch kittens on the other side of the UNIVERSE will tremble in preparation for the kicks coming.
-
Ohh hay look at that he's the vig. MORE SURPRISES 'in ON IN
-
:O Well I'll be damned I thought for sure Mastin/Zaz were going to be the same group.

That doesn't change TOO much but kills my "swarm tactics theory" a little.
-
I'm still catching up you silly goose(geese). I'm on 61.

I have SHOCKING REVELATIONS when I'm done.

No kidding those shouldn't be huge piles of super information - they are just the most obvious notes as I'm going along.
-
... Wicked is the mason partner?

God damnit.

(note this means I believe Hayker and THROWS OUT a ton of my ideas)
-
... TWO neighbor sets and masons?

The secret 4th neighbor is scum. Hands down.

The first thing I notice here is that he's not saying his opinions as he forms them. He only comments when he's either smug at being correct ("Ohh hay look at that") or surprised at being incorrect ("I'll be damned").

It's a stretch to say that he was "typing his 'thoughts' while re-reading"; he was clearly holding most of his opinions back. He's definitely not trying to appear "100% correct on every issue", since he claims to be

wrong

on some of them!

[Xylthixlm]

Right about now roflcopter should be deciding that SpyreX is my scumpartner rather than Kmd.

5... 4... 3... 2...

[Xylthixlm]

SC: I don't read that as intending to be a post-as-you-read. YMMV.

[Xylthixlm]

The first thing I notice here is that

he's not saying his opinions as he forms them.

He only comments when he's either smug at being correct ("Ohh hay look at that") or surprised at being incorrect ("I'll be damned").

Really. I don't see any evidence that SpyreX intends for

anyone

to think that he's giving all of his opinions as he reads. It's blatantly obvious that he's not doing that. He's not making any attempt to hide it.

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX: Key word

all

.

[Xylthixlm]

EBWOP

SpyreX

SerialClergyman: Key word

all

.

[Xylthixlm]

You didn't think to lynch Mastin when he

claimed scum

? Seriously?

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl - if the first post obviously intends to be viewed as 'post as you go', then surely the next ones would as well? Unless your point is the first one was made at page 28 but the rest were made after looking at what has happened?

Either way that argument is a red herring - Spy posted above saying that he was indeed posting as he go and he did indeed just get it right.

Er, let's see if I can make this more clear.

There's two styles of catching up. One is to make frequent posts as you read summarizing your opinions so far. The other is to save your opinions until you've read everything, then make one post with all of them. SpyreX was clearly doing mostly the second style. The only opinions he actually claimed

before

he got to the point where it was proven/disproven were on Mastin and ckool. So your "100% correct" is really 2 out of 2 - not that impressive, actually.

As for whether those opinions are reasonable, maybe you think they aren't. But Mastin was playing super-scummy. You gave him a pass on "meta", but that's your problem. I would have lynched him the moment he claimed scum. As for ckool, I don't have trouble believing that SpyreX spotted vig tells.

[Xylthixlm]

BTW, let me make a theoretical tangent here. Some players adopt a consistently scummy playstyle so that people can't read them when they're scum. If you don't lynch them eventually, they'll just win if they're scum; and if you have to lynch someone eventually it's better to do that early rather than late. In theory it might be a good idea to keep a good scumhunter around, but in practice good scumhunters never fall into this category.

Thus, I follow this rule:

Any player who is playing in a way deliberately designed to obscure scumtells should be lynched immediately, regardless of meta.

[Xylthixlm]

tl;dr: Yes you should lynch people who are obfuscating, even if they're within meta.

[Xylthixlm]

Spy claims to have just nailed every major issue for the first couple of days on a re-read that couldn't have been thorough

There were only two major issues for the first couple of days? Really? You're stretching. He didn't take any position at all on MafiaMann, for example.

[Xylthixlm]

Whether he read the first post before reading is almost irrelevant - all his points save Mastin and ckool

were

made with the benefit of hindsight, and clearly indicate it.

Don't worry Namttam, I haven't forgotten you.

[Xylthixlm]

I think that's a fair rule to apply to people like Empking or whatever who contribute zero to the game, but Mastin seemed to be pointing out tells and attacking people, (despite doing so in a clusterfuck of crap) and that seemed to be a poor choice of lynch target round 1.

Mastin is

never

a poor choice of lynch target.

[Xylthixlm]

Which is to say, if I have no clue at all about Mastin's alignment, I will still believe that lynching him raises the town's odds of winning.

[Xylthixlm]

I would have gotten two or three of those assumptions right. He got all

six

two

right.

Fixed.

[Xylthixlm]

Why has Namttam not been lynched yet?

[Xylthixlm]

Xylthixlm

: I think 1755 is where he states his reasons...

Also 1754 and 1804.

[Xylthixlm]

roflcopter - killed by Vermillion
molestargazer - killed by Cerulean

Hmmmm. Why would Vermillion kill roflcopter?

[Xylthixlm]

Town

Achilles

SpyreX

dvdkid13

Kmd4390

fallen angel

Xylthixlm
Hayker
Wickedestjr

Maybe Not Town

BloodCovenent

Lowell

cateraction

curiouskarmadog
Faraday
Kublai Khan

reveillark

SerialClergyman

The list of people who I don't think are town is getting shorter. Let's try to lynch a scum today, mmm?

[Xylthixlm]

Still reminding myself what happened yesterday.

I see molestargazer came up neighbor. This gives a pretty high probability that the last neighbor is scum. And there is no way you are going to convince me that this was not a breadcrumb.

vote: Lowell

[Xylthixlm]

I have seen enough activity from KMD and SpyreX to make me fairly confident in my town read of them. I don't have a confident town read on Kublai, but based on his claim I think he's probably town.

Hayker's guess that Lowell is cerulean is bizarre. There are two dead cerulean and both of them were power roles. I would not expect a third power role in the same scumteam.

[Xylthixlm]

Sorry. Previous post should be 'Faraday' not 'Hayker'. My apologies.

[Xylthixlm]

Given a choice of having the game stall until Sunday, or just lynching Lowell, I'd pick the second.

[Xylthixlm]

As for Lowell, I don't think him saying I am Mufasa's Alt is a breadcrumb.

noted, what do you think it meant then?


also Lowell's lack of claim is bullshit.

I thought it was simply a joke.

Jokes are great places to hide breadcrumbs. After all, the point of a breadcrumb is that it should only be obvious if you know what you're looking for.

[Xylthixlm]

Maybe Not Town

Kublai Khan

I don't have a confident town read on Kublai, but based on his claim I think he's probably town.

Umm... Contradiction?

I fail to see any contradiction between "maybe not town" and "probably town". "Maybe not town" means exactly what it says.

[Xylthixlm]

They're not equivalent, but they're not exclusive either. It means I think he's probably town but maybe not.

[Xylthixlm]

Given the question "do you think Kublai Khan is more likely to be town or scum" I would say he is probably town.

Given the question "do you think Kublai Khan is definitely town or maybe not town" I would say he is maybe not town.

I'm not sure how this is unclear.

[Xylthixlm]

Well, possibly because you rank spyrex and kmd in the 'certainly' town category. So that means you think they are more likely to be town than kk, which is odd in and of itself, but also that you can't even say maybe to the question of whether they are scum or not.

I'm fairly confident that SpyreX and Kmd are town. I'm not confident that Kublai is town. Why is this odd?

[Xylthixlm]

Your rankings we can disagree on, but youre playing a pretty silly game with semantics. You thnk kk is probaby town, not definitely. Sure. But then you say that Kmd and spy, while being in the definitely towncategory are people you are fairly confident of.

If the top group isn't definite, why not put kk up there if you think he's probably town?

I'm not playing silly games with semantics, I am trying to express a very real distinction in the confidence of my reads. It's sort of like the difference between "preponderance of the evidence" and "beyond a reasonable doubt".

[Xylthixlm]

I find it interesting that Xyl thinks Kmd and SpyreX are certainly town, because the three people I'm most suspicious of just happen to be Xyl, SpyreX, and Kmd.

I reserve the right to act smug after the game when you turn out to be totally wrong.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote

thinking

[Xylthixlm]

-=Vote Count #54=-

Lowell (5) - Xylthixlm, curiouskarmadog, SerialClergyman, SpyreX, Faraday
SpyreX (1) - Wickedestjr
SerialClergyman (1) - Kmd4390

Not Voting (3) - Hayker, Kublai Khan, Lowell

6 to lynch.

I do not like the people on that Lowell wagon. SerialClergyman and Faraday are both ringing my scumdar. This wagon grew too fast on too little evidence - and yes, I know I started the wagon.

I'm not sure why Kmd thinks Serial specifically is scummiest, but I see a nice case of IIoA. Let's run with it.

vote: SerialClergyman

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think any of the people who were

not

voting Lowell is scum, which would imply that if Lowell has a scumbuddy they were bussing him. That would be a really dumb time to bus, so I don't think he has a scumbuddy, which means he's probably not Vermillion. And I don't think he can be Cerulean either, because that would give the Ceruleans three power roles.

I am overwhelmed by the quality and quantity of the case against me.

I bet you were overwhelmed by the quality and quantity of the case against Lowell, too.

[Xylthixlm]

Your lack of vote seems to hinge on the idea that he couldn't possibly be being bussed AND that none of the people who haven't voted him could be scum, both of which I think are far-reaching assumptions.

Please read the quote in my signature, then apply it to the question of whether my unvote means I must think the things you mention are impossible.

_________________
#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net

"We should strive to make an informed decision based on the best evidence, and then act accordingly, even though the best evidence will never guarantee certainty."

[Xylthixlm]

Actually, you just have to be more likely to be scum than Lowell is. And right now I'd say you have around a 75% chance of being scum.

Congratulations.

[Xylthixlm]

FTR I'm assuming 3 scum and breaking down the probabilities roughly like this:

SerialClergyman 75%
Faraday 65%
curiouskarmadog 50%
Lowell 40%
Any other one player 50%
Any other two players 10% (x2 = 20%)
----
Total 300%

These numbers are impressions. But at least they add up to the right total. Terms and conditions apply. I am not a lawyer. Do not take with grapefruit juice.

[Xylthixlm]

What are the cases against SerialClergyman and Faraday?

Mostly gut and process of elimination. SerialClergyman also has a strong case of

IIoA

, which is a very good scumtell - I would lynch someone on IIoA alone. I haven't looked at Faraday closely but I've definitely been getting some scumdar pings there, too.

[Xylthixlm]

Er

IIoA

Basically, it means talking a lot but avoiding confrontation and accusations. It looks active but it doesn't really help the town find scum. It's one of the tells that applies to someone's gameplay as a whole, so do an iso read.

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman, I think your play speaks for itself.

Hmm, where is this attack on Faraday? Looking... your iso posts 6 & 7 mention Faraday but also a bunch of other people, and you don't follow up... no more mentions of him until post 81, where you dismiss him as "irrelevant" in the middle of a list of scum/town opinions - what?! - then post 82 you make a light attack about "scummy fence-sit" but don't follow it up.

Faraday is your scumbuddy, right? That's obviously distancing, you're not actually trying to draw attention to him, just trying to say he's scummy so that you can point to it later.

[Xylthixlm]

curiouskarmadog: You could be asking

why

I picked those %ages, or just filing them away so you can see if I change my views later. Instead you dismiss them as "useless". Information about what another player is thinking, or claims to be thinking, is never useless to a townie.

There is a slight possibility that Lowell is the last Cerulean, and SerialClergyMan, Faraday, and curiouskarmadog are all Vermillion.

[Xylthixlm]

... how can

anyone

be irrelevant to the game? "Irrelevant" is a word you use to talk about something that can be safely ignored, but town doesn't have the luxury of ignoring - anyone could be scum. The fact that you dismiss him as "irrelevant" is

damning

.

[Xylthixlm]

How does irrelevent mean safe to ignore? It means he's had no relevance, no strong impact on the game. My post, far from saying he should be ignored, was calling him out as scummy for not doing anything to advance the game! How could you possibly interpret my post pointing out that he never took a position after hayker claimed as me suggesting he should be ignored??

You called him out as scummy, you say. How scummy? Scummy enough to vote? Scummy enough to put real pressure on? Apparently not.

And if your argument is so damning, why do you only try it on AFTER your IIoA point crashes and burns?

I hadn't searched your iso read for all mentions of Faraday until after you mentioned your "attack" on him.

I'm not abandoning the IIoA point, either, just leaving it on the back burner for now.

Is this about me, or is this about derailng the Lowell wagon?

Both.

[Xylthixlm]

Now don't get me wrong - I'm all for the SC lynch.

However, in a game with two scumgroups justification for moving off a lynch by finding others ON the lynch scummy doesn't float as hot - especially when process of elimination suggests that Lowell could be the last member of a group.

I.E. - Lowell is still a very good lynch that doesn't clear ANYONE else on it.

If Lowell is the last Cerulean, and is a neighbor, that would give the Ceruleans three power roles (doctor, roleblocker, neighbor). That's not impossible, but it's a little unlikely. That lowers my estimate of the likelihood that Lowell is scum enough to make me want to look elsewhere today.

I'm not saying I think Lowell is town - I'd still give him an above-average chance of being scum - but I don't think he's the best lynch either.

[Xylthixlm]

Let's say it's 3/4 ... probably Lowell as the last Cerulean, and curiouskarmadog/Faraday/SerialClergyman as the Vermillion.

Lynch Cerulean today -> we go to 5 town vs 3 Vermillion. Town absolutely has to lynch correctly three times in a row.

Lynch Vermillion today -> we go to 4 town vs 2 Vermillion vs 1 Cerulean, OR 5 vs 2, OR 5 vs 1 vs, OR EVEN 6 vs 1. But assume it's the first. If we lynch the Cerulean then, it goes to 3 vs 2, and we need 2 correct lynches in a row. If we lynch a Vermillion again we'll need a scum crosskill.

Overall, I'm pretty sure lynching Vermillion today is better. We're at an even number so the possibility of losing one extra townie tonight isn't bad, and the possibility of a scum crosskill is really good.

[Xylthixlm]

/vote:Lowell

Sorry Lowell, ut I'm convinced that you are scum.

Even if you're convinced he's scum, if he is he's almost certainly Cerulean. If that's the case then lynching him today is

bad

. Not as bad as lynching a townie, but still bad.

[Xylthixlm]

Well if you think he's a neighbour, Lowell that is, then he's clearly some form of scum, no? I mean what other reason was there not to come out when Mole claimed. And the thing w/ Mufasa's alt is far more likely to be an early neighbour breadcrumb than anything else.

I'm very well aware of the case on Lowell. I'm the one who found the "breadcrumb" and started the wagon! Don't act like I don't understand my own case.

[Xylthixlm]

So you don't think this makes him more likely to be scum than anyone else in the game? Which was the reason you switched your vote change. Or are you now saying you're more concenrned trying to find a specific scum group.

SerialClergyman is more likely to be scum

and

more likely to be the right scum to lynch if they're both scum.

[Xylthixlm]

curiouskarmadog: Lowell went from probably-Vermillion-if-he's-scum to probably-Cerulean-if-he's-scum when you, SerialClergyman, and Faraday all jumped onto his wagon. My reasoning here is not hard to understand if you try.

[Xylthixlm]

Where did I say we shouldn't lynch Lowell because he was unlikely to be Cerulean?

[Xylthixlm]

also good job on avoiding my questions.

If you ask me a question - "why did you do X?" - that I haven't already answered, isn't something you could easily find the answer to yourself, and isn't a loaded question, I will usually answer it.

See if you can figure out which of those categories of question I won't answer you used.

If you actually want to learn something, rather than just making a rhetorical point, feel free to rephrase the questions.

[Xylthixlm]

Ugh. This curiouskarmadog play feels familiar, but I'm not sure where, or what his alignment was that game.

[Xylthixlm]

Ah yes, it was Frogs Mafia, where curiouskarmadog was scum and I was town. He accused me of backpedaling, and asked lots of loaded questions and then tried to paint me as scummy for not answering them. See for example this post.

jesus fucking christ...how you avoid direct points and scoot around your actions when someone calls you out....you also keep trying to distract with useless info.

curiouskarmadog, can you find a game where you behave similarly

as town

?

[Xylthixlm]

Current working hypothesis: SerialClergyman and Faraday are Vermillion together. I'm unsure whether curiouskarmadog is Cerulean, or whether Lowell is Cerulean and curiouskarmadog is Vermillion. In either case Lowell is not the best lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

are you saying you didnt?

If I did, quote it.

PREVIEW EDIT: Congratulations. You found a quote of me saying Lowell is not a good lynch because he's

less likely to be scum

. Which is nothing at all like "he is VER SO WE SHOULDNT LYNCH HIM". You are blatantly misrepresenting my position.

check out my wiki page

I'm giving you the chance to pick the game which will demonstrate your point the best. If you don't want to, I'll just pick one randomly.

now that I am calling you on shit...you are attempting to discredit me....

Yeah, you don't get much credit. After all, you know from Frogs Mafia that I this is how I play as town, but you're still attacking me for it, and attacking the same way you attacked me when you were scum.

[Xylthixlm]

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair

Substitute "win condition" for "salary" and you have a perfect explanation for curiouskarmadog's amazing failure of reading comprehension. He did this in Frogs Mafia, too.

I'd be up for a curiouskarmadog lynch if anyone wants one.