Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[SpyreX]

You know what. I'm actually down with this.

Vote OGB

[SpyreX]

Well, let me be clearer.

(Policy, yea yea)

If OGB AND Mufasa are both town I will eat my hat.
If they are both town and are left alive we will lose.

One hangs, one hopefully dies. OGB first just because mufasa claimed, poorly, a role.

[SpyreX]

He's functionally retarded, but thats ok for now.

OGB on the other hand.

[SpyreX]

I'm doing my part. God I am doing my part.

[SpyreX]

I could see a few scum-maneuvers for the pants-on-head retardation we've seen from Mufasa that would be BRILLIANT. Thus, I doubt its there. So, he IS probably town.

However, are you ready for this, the fact he's claimed JOAT without the vig REALLY makes me think we have a separate vig around. If you shot him I wouldn't shed a tear.

That said.

I'm fairly confident in OGB being scum. Furthermore, if he is, like I think... at least one of those early votes is scum. I will be doing a more detailed analysis, but it would be too creamy to not jump on and jump on fast if your partner decided to go dangle over the ledge just asking for a push.

I would like to get him lynched BEFORE I do the full analysis but initial reads look poorly on Sera and X (to a degree).

Caboose, despite the twitching, looks alright as of now.

[SpyreX]

Maybe if we all hold hands and pray I can get a multi-daykill and fix this mess. Because holy hell in a handbasket.

OGB - dead man walking.
Mufasa - your ass better find a way to fix your mess or get killed. Either or works for me (HINT VIG THIS IS ME DIRECTING YOU).
Caboose - what the hell is your fixation with an alvins wagon?
Sera - IF (OGB = scum && Mufasa = town) THEN (Seraphim = dead)
Additionally:
(Darkdude / HowardRoark / skitzer)
Chance of at least 1 scum* in this grouping: 85%

*Something about the way this whole mess is going down + size of game makes me :tinfoil: on two scum groups / sk / other roles that do not win with the town.

There's some obvtowns around. YOU DONT GET TO KNOW WHO UNTIL ALL NAMES ABOVE HATH BEEN ELIMINATED.

It is written.
It is done.

[SpyreX]

The other two, totally, but I'm missing what's putting Howard in such esteemed company.

His one post is a vote for Korts under the grounds of a "contrived case" against Seraphim and a FoS on charter for spaghetti.

On Seraphim. One post. Defensive. Not even explaining the contrived.

Thats enough for me.

i would like to see all of the people voting any of ogb, skitzer and seraphim decide on a consensus candidate and pile all of the votes that are spread between these three onto one of them. much better way of doing business.

i'm still for ogb getting the noose.

By god I love you rofl.

See the above. This. Do this. (Pick OGB)

As an aside: Axel is really rubbing me the wrong way. That is for far later down the road.

[SpyreX]

....

Ok, I could accept you are just retarded.

I can not accept "for reactions" for this mess.

God...so many people, not enough votes guns.

[SpyreX]

Wow, thats some severe lack of reading all the words right there mix.

Mufasa is the town's best candidate for a lynch today.

He claimed when not under pressure. He can't keep his claim straight. He's clearly not a JOAT. When someone lies about their role, they are scum. If they are town and lying about it, they are helping the scum by risking a counterclaim by a real townie. His lynch would give mediocre information, but we're not lynching him for information. We're lynching him to win. No idea how likely it is we have a vig. I'm not interested in letting him live tonight and hoping we have a vig and hoping the vig kills him.

Mind you, I disagree and would much rather see OGB "there's no motive for this but scum" get hung versus "I am a pants-on-head tard" today.

That doesn't excuse this business though.

[SpyreX]

I've got a quick minute, so I want to clarify something and make it clear.

Mufasa is not the correct lynch today. Or, maybe ever. The way this has went down DOES bespeak a more than decent chance of him being town.

However, ready for this, that doesn't change the fact I would want him vig'd. Sooner than later. For a couple reasons which I can't believe I'm going to actually explain:

1.) The elimination of mufasa on a night where the is another kill lends credence to a vig (or at the very least a pro-town sk woot).
--- This is because, get this, this clusterfuck is going to be a talking point for scum to hide amongst forever - and a valid one because

town

are going to do it to.

2.) As much as I'd love to hit scum, worthless townies are a bronze medal. Even with the power role, he sits firmly in this camp.

3.) Not only are the roles unconfirmable but in this instance its like giving a baby a bazooka - guaranteed, if I'm right, they will do more harm than good.

So, if I'm right and he's town - shoot him for the above.
I'f I'm wrong and he's scum - well, the shot nabs us a scum.

All that said, lynch OGB, kthx

[SpyreX]

Charter is the "town" in my "town and scum will push for this retard every day" equation.

[SpyreX]

I'd give if we machinegun lynched that list above a 75% chance of the game immediately ending. I have to assume ONE scum isn't that awesome.

[SpyreX]

But the problem with Mufasa's claim is how he claimed it. he claimed under no pressure, and clearly didn't have a good hold of what his role actulaly was, so he ended up tweaking it a few times. yes, the final role he has finally decided on is plausible, but the method he took to get there isn't really truthful.

And every step of the way was stupider and stupider. True. That doesn't make it less truthful - in fact, the sheer volume of stupid (not to be confused with scummy) lends to bad town versus bad scum.

Not that it changes the fact a bullet would do his cortex wonders in this game.

[SpyreX]

Starbuck for SK! This just in!

[SpyreX]

I concur but reading his post at face value

[SpyreX]

Probably because I want him dead.

There's some definite parsing to do with 3 scum flips already. I hope to get to it tonight.

I will give you this to start:

OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

I 100% guarantee you there is at least ONE Russian on this list. Probably 2.
Additionally I think there is an Italian on there as well.

I've got a little :tinfoil: that there might be a third scum group, not a SK/Vig - and at least one of those three exist or something really weird is going on.

You'll get more soon.

[SpyreX]

Time to grease this pig, old school.

*Most of this analysis is based on the assumption that the scum can kill normally and that is not tied to the 1-shot vig in some way.

So, to the facts:

- OozingGolfBall, 1-Shot Vigilante, Member of The Russian Mafia:
- inHimshallibe, Godfather, Member of Upper Roccisi Neighborhood, Member of the Italian Mafia:
- ThAdmiral, Doctor, Member of The Italian Mafia

-- OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

* Assumption 2: Scum did communicate before the game to the point they knew what abilities they were working with.

OGB, being a vig (even if one shot) is an incredibly useful scum role. Thus, he is NOT an early candidate for bussing.

(Note: Yes this changes my stance from before about early votes being suspect. It isn't worth lynching a vig if you have other avenues)

So, I would remove from my list of

obvious

Russian candidates: charter, korts, rofl.

On the flip side, the first person to come to OGB's defense in any fashion is: Caboose.

Now, we're going to play ebb and flow. The interplay between the Mufasa wagon and the OGB wagon will catch us at LEAST a scum.

OozingGolfBall (3): roflcopter, X, SpyreX
Mufasa (3): charter, Seraphim, iamausername

Mufasa (4): charter, iamausername, Mixologist, Starbuck
OozingGolfBall (4): roflcopter, X, SpyreX, ekiM

Mufasa (5): charter, iamausername, Mixologist, Starbuck, skitzer
OozingGolfBall (4): roflcopter, X, SpyreX, ekiM

Mufasa (4): charter, Mixologist, Starbuck, skitzer
OozingGolfBall (4): roflcopter, X, SpyreX, ekiM

OozingGolfBall (6): roflcopter, X, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist,

inHimshallibe

Mufasa (4): charter, Starbuck, skitzer, OozingGolfBall

Mufasa (7): charter, Starbuck, skitzer, OozingGolfBall, X,

ThAdmiral

,

inHimshallibe

OozingGolfBall (5): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95

OozingGolfBall (5): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95
Mufasa (3): charter, OozingGolfBall, ThAdmiral

OozingGolfBall (6): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername
Mufasa (2): charter, OozingGolfBall

OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

So, a few things.

People that stuck to OGB like glue (aka, not Russians):
Rofl, SpyreX, ekiM.

People that, aren't Italians if the Italians are smart at all:
charter, Starbuck, skitzer.

People that jumped wagons (and this gets interesting):
Mixologist, Starbuck, iaun.

^^^

In that group above I'm fairly certain we have another Russian. Someone who jumped when it was obvious they weren't going to get their mislynch and wanted to try and get some townie cred.

They'd be, most likely, a point-of-no return vote. After there was no way of salvaging it you'd want to try and blend on the wagon.

And, of course, I know who it is. Do you?

Vote: Starbuck

---------------------------------------------------

Part Two:

Now, this is important. There was, with high probability, three kill attempts last night.

1.) The Russians - one of the Italians
2.) The Italians - Blocked / ?
3.) ? - one of the Italians.

#2 -could- be explained by Korts being blocked. Or, depending on the resolution timing, the fact the other mafioso's got killed. This I'm not sure about.

#3 though worries me. If its a vig, which I doubt more and more, they -REALLY- shot from the hip. An SK makes more sense as those are low-profile targets that have a definite chance of getting away with clean. Or, another freakin mafia group.

----------

I've got more random notes I'll try to compile later. This is plenty for now.

Starbuck is probably a Russian. I would, really, rather hit an Italian today but I'll take whats standing there.

I would also happily lynch: darkdude, caboose, axelrod, tubby, howard, skitzer.

Mufasa could still use that bullet.

[SpyreX]

Good lord I'm taking a nap before I delve into this.

@Korts: Apparently your page 1 vote for OGB, which was right in the mix of charters real vote / rofls real vote wasn't real or you dont remember it. Either way, thats fine and definitely removes you from your list.

@Rofl: I was catching up and my major concern with Sera is the pressure he's got from other scummy players. It doesn't speak right for a bus setup.

And I didn't ignore Korts OR Axel. Korts's early vote made me find a bus unlikely and I'd lynch Axel. Just wasn't a bandwagon jumper in the classic sense.

[SpyreX]

And I'm not doubting the existance of a vig. Far from it. The fact that mufasa doesn't have that role in his Joat makes me think all the more there IS a vig.

I am saying that I do not think last nights mysterious kill was a vig.

[SpyreX]

Ok, so maybe that nap went a little long and then madness.

However, back to the fray:

because no, he should not be shot, he is a town power role and thats even more evident today than it was yesterday

i suddenly understand why spyrex is on tubby's shortlist

spyrex also notably left charter off of the list of people who jumped wagons when he is the most blatant wagon jumper, being gung ho for an ogb lynch until mufasa comes along and is suddenly ZOMG THE ONLY PERSON WE CAN LYNCH BCUZ HES SO DUMB

I'll freely admit he's town.
I also raise you that I freely admit I do not want him here at endgame.
However, the lynch shouldn't be wasted on him.

As for charter. I understand the "kill the idiot" mentality. That doesn't change he was the first to jump on OGB and it wasn't ever an issue of "OGB is cool now." it was "Kill this one, THEN kill this one."

Which I dig.

spy, why do you feel the need to cast doubt on a vig claim that hasn't even happened yet? the fact that this third kill source did not take out the target you and charter tried to convince him/her/them to does not mean they're anti town. there was a significant level of legitimate suspicion leveled at inhim yesterday, and i can completely understand a thorough vig evaluating admiral during the night and deciding to ice him, so neither of those kills is really "shooting from the hip" just because they're not the kill you wanted made.

You are 100% correct. After rereading and sleeping again its pretty obvious both of those were decent shots. So.

I don't follow this train of thought. I was a late addition to the wagon, I could be a hypothetical partner bussing. Also, if you don't think bussing is likely, why aren't early additions to this wagon on your list of unlikely Russians? ekiM, for instance. You mention him a few paragraphs later, but why not in this list?

I get the feeling you're just trying to appeal to the most aggressive scumhunters here.

Again, why is my early defense of OGB ignored?

SpyreX, you make no mention of Seraphim. Do you think he's not scummy at all?

Now, I dont get "WHY DONT YOU FIND ME SCUMMY" when you were an early vote and are forgetting it. Which is fine.

However, "appealing to the aggressive scum hunters"? Really.

It should come as no shock that due to play rofl and charter feel town through and through. You, however, are on my list of "probably not Russian" due to positioning only. Definitely not play.

As for Sera:

two scumgroups means it doesn't have to be a bus, it could just be russian mafia happy to lynch non russian. i would think you would have realized this. go take your nap and come back.

I couldn't see the trees for the forest.

Everything else aside.

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim.

Most of your case consists solely of ThAdmiral making mentions to me. However, up until now, I don't think I've ever mentioned Admiral in ANY of my posts. ThAd was most likely, like you say in regards to darkdude, laying groundwork for future mislynches.

Also, you seem to be missing something rather obvious...the OTHER member of the Italian Mafia killed last night. You say it looks like distancing, but I have been attacking him since he started posting. If he hadn't died last night, I would been voting for him today.

Your entire case provides absolutely no real proof that I am scum. All your evidence is circumstantial and hinges on the fact that I am Italian Mafia. What if I'm Russian Mafia? What if I'm town? What if I'm an SK?

As for buddying up, yes, in larger games, I do have a tendency to buddy up with players I have a town read on and feel are experienced, both of which I feel from you. I did this in WIH. You know that.

I feel like partially claiming... So, I will. I am a member of the Lower Roccisi Neighborhood. My neighbor doesn't need to claim and confirm me if he doesn't want to out himself. Discuss.

This is bad.

1.) One way connections are going to be more prevalent in early game scum than two-way. Especially an over correction - see your "I didn't EVER mention ThAd" which is just as off.

2.) What does A have to do with B? You ignored one partner and bussed the other knowing full well there was a snowballs chance in hell of it being a lynch yesterday.

3.) Why, lord, why would you put a mafia ahead of town. Or even put that at all.

4.) Meta is awesome.

5.) You claimed the part of your role that means, get this, absolutely nothing considering the flips. Like, somehow, this will exonerate you.

Starbuck tomorrow. This for now.

[SpyreX]

Bolding properly is tech

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim

[SpyreX]

I would bet there is at least one scum in this group.

Yep, and its starbuck.

@Sera:

I just happened to not bold when I called BS on your defense to begin with. Claiming your neighborhood under the grounds of scum wont be in each neighborhood isn't worth the paper its written on.

[SpyreX]

I'm strong in my convictions because I'm right.

As for saving my own ass... what? From who?

[SpyreX]

Ohh see thats a different business all together.

Unvote, Vote: Alvinz

[SpyreX]

Ok... this is complete BS.

Claim vanilla.

Caboose says he has information without a claim and EVERYONE believes him despite his ridiculously scummy behavior? What reason do we have to believe Caboose? How do we know Caboose is a pro-town role information role? What have I done besides -not do anything- which IS MY META, that is scummy? How am I the 'best' option today? Are you guys saying that all your other suspects have weak cases? If we are even believing Caboose, how is skitzer a worse option than me? From what I've read, there's is more evidence supporting a skitzer lynch.

This is a very unbased lynch full of a bunch of wagoners. There are many holes in this wagon that have not been answered yet. I sense a speed-lynch. Answer those questions and I'll accept the town's mistake, if you don't you guys are just plain stupid.

Caboose has been scummy. Yes.

However, this is nowhere near lylo and Caboose has, inherently, offered himself up for the wolves if you are scum. Moreso, the chances of this being a bus considering he has said he has TWO scum hits is just too much to not take up.

You, of your own accord, have done very little. You are a litmus test that, one way or another, should bag scum.

Especially considering you're vanilla this is about as win-win as you can get.

(But, I'll give you that this has been a pretty unabashed list of wagoners - ultimately no one is getting 'cred' for this wagon. This is simply testing a PR)

[SpyreX]

Ok, ok. After Alvin et Skitzer take the rope can we PLEASE lynch Starbuck? Please?

[SpyreX]

No reason yo' I mean I'm bad at mafia afterall rite.

Bad enough I'd make a group stating how bad I am.

[SpyreX]

I'm tired and its early and we're talking about MASONS JOY...but, one question:

1.) The hell does this confirm anyone? I dont see in that role any notification that they are confirmed to each other.

Now, chances are high this is true, but the game of out the "mason" win a prize when the prize could be ants covered in bears isn't too hot.

[SpyreX]

Thanks for the clarification Ek, barring CC which I doubt tubby be town yo'.

Vote: Darkdude.

Also would happily, again, lynch Sera.

[SpyreX]

The hell did you claim a "killing" role for at this point? Sigh.

And yes, there is a noticeable contextual difference between neighbor and neighbors.

Additionally, if you do not KNOW your partner is town AND there is evidence that at least some neighbors have powers - how does trying to out your partner equate to a scum move (*especially when the person says they think you're lying about being in a neighboorhood to begin with).

But, finally, why lord would you do this when mr.dude has put on his kamikaze hat and is rarin to die.

[SpyreX]

... the HELL do you want to know who he's going to investigate? Really?

If you're planning on taking a shot (which is about the ONLY town reason I can think of for asking such a ridiculous question) then accept the ramifications that you might shoot wrong.

As it is, well, if you don't claim an actual for reallies killin' role then you're dead. Period. There is no other reason to make that statement.

(OHH SHI SPYREX ROLEFISHING ENTER BLATHER HERE)

[SpyreX]

I have a gun, alright? I just can't use it yet. If Caboose is a gunsmith(which is still possible), then I will come up guilty. This is the sole reason I wanted to know who he was targeting. I suppose I didn't need to know who he was targeting and should've simply made the statement.

We're gonna be real clear about this:

Are you going to be able to shoot tonight? Yes/No.

This question is for answering.

He questions my claim, but he still votes. Bussing?

I questioned it a little as well but, ultimately, throwing yourself out like that with not one but TWO scum hits is win-win for town even if you don't believe 100%.

Rolefish
+scumpoints for ekiM

Stating the obvious != rolefishing. The existence of a Godfather DOES, normally, imply the existence of investigative roles. This does nothing to try to get them to oust themselves.

I agree.
+scumpoints for Howard

Yes.

+lots of russian mafia points for darkdude

Yes.

I believe Seraphim's claim.

I can see a myriad of reasons for scum to make this statement and few for a town to leave it at that.

[SpyreX]

...

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim

If you can't kill tonight then there was absolutely no reason aside from self-preservation to ask the damn cop if he was going to, in essence, investigate you.

I would still lynch dark as well but holy hell.

[SpyreX]

I'm not gonna lie it better be damn good.

[SpyreX]

This cements the fact you're claiming today. I dont care about the neighbor.

[SpyreX]

IF you're not scum, after the game I'll be happy to elaborate on why that feels like a gigantic pile of mess.

[SpyreX]

Why must it wait? It's supposed to be something incriminating, right? If you cannot reveal it you cannot say it is a point against me.

I just see no reason why me saying that I believe seraphim's claim is scummy. I knew why I had votes before due to lurking and not doing much, but this is something I don't understand.

Just because YOU can't see it doesn't mean its there. Additionally, a minor point like that IS classic wiggling room to escape a lynch. Not happening unless, after the game, I know your inquiry is honest.

The neighbor would help issues, but regardless something needs to be done asap.

[SpyreX]

God thank you X. X is tech. Do NOT let Sera control your damn kill as it sits.
And, the whole "gunsmith" thing considering the group of you has a gun and not one of you sits even odder but:

Unvote, Vote: Darkdude.

[SpyreX]

I'm not saying anything as you as a player(believe me I dont dig that).

I'm saying simply that the play is questionable enough that I wouldn't trust you with a bullet at the mo'.

[SpyreX]

I'm down with insane. It makes things better some days.

[SpyreX]

Sera thoguht I was attacking THEM as a person/player. I clarified I wasn't. We then held hands a little bit and made up because Sera is fine by me.

It doesn't change anything in regards to the game as whole, just a reminder we're playing with human beings.

[SpyreX]

It does as long as you dont just give open ended statements.

You are town, give all the reasoning you can with the understanding that players are taking it without the normal grain of salt that it is some kind of scum machinations pushing it.

[SpyreX]

Hehe, don't take direction from me. I'm just saying that as confirmed you have a bit more weight. Use it.

[SpyreX]

Right now, nope.

[SpyreX]

eK is tech.

Darkdude today, then down that list. Howard, Mix, Tajo.

I do like how I forgot Howard was in the game but like beetlejuice THERE HE IS.

[SpyreX]

^ I agree with this(these) sentiment(s)

[SpyreX]

I would also like convincing (i.e. not-meta) reasons to think Howard is town. Because I'm not seeing them.

[SpyreX]

Its a lazy way of saying "I agree with your sentiment and find it to be town in nature."

[SpyreX]

.... Wow. If that is an accurate paraphrase it just reeks of scum.

[SpyreX]

How bout me? I think you, sera and dark are having a scum olympics.

WHO WILL GET THE GOLD

[SpyreX]

Sera's side. I'll explain it when I ahve some real time.

[SpyreX]

@Dark:

I am totally serious. You're going to be lynched. IF you are town (which I doubt), just read along and when its done I (and others I'd imagine) would be more than happy to explain what is up.

[SpyreX]

I'm surprised by IAUN's flip.

I'm also more than a little surprised howard is "town".

I do agree with a lot of Kort's post - the problem is we have one who is confirmed and I'm just not feelin the mojo from Ek or X.

Guess its time to play look at IAUN

[SpyreX]

SpyreX's opinions haven't changed much since post 196. That piques my suspicion a bit, because in the game that I was Mafia, I wrote a suspicion list early in the game, and referred back to it before writing posts. SpyreX is still suspicious of HowardRoark and Seraphim, albeit for more developed reasons. SpyreX, what do you think of Korts and Lowell?

I like Kort's last set of posts, a lot - sans the fact MY name keeps getting brought up of course.

Lowell is skating still.

I see what tajo is saying, but I have a really hard time stomaching killing a claimed cop. I need to think about that a bit more.

[SpyreX]

And I answered right above?

[SpyreX]

I wish I did. IAUN flipping scum and an invest on HR coming up innocent really have messed up my reads.

[SpyreX]

I'm not diggin' the Caboose hunt.

However I can and do follow Kort's logic behind Caboose fairly well - except for the fact its almost Shrodinger's NK: by stating it SHOULD happen, it now most likely will not.

I'll freely admit I'm still having a hard time getting back into the swing of things this game. I still have a high-level of distrust for Lowell and the real absence of anything concrete and useful.

[SpyreX]

- alvinz ISO 10: he mentions rofl and SpyreX as the exceptions to the statement that everyone on his wagon has "either wagonned, done little, or [has] acted scummy". In contrast, SpyreX's reason is no better than a lot of the people who voted alvinz simply because of Caboose's results; there is also no prior suspicion from SpyreX regarding alvinz, in fact the only mention of alvinz from SpyreX is

This is true. Alvinz really had no reason to single me out in that instance unless he was trying to push me off the wagon (or, well, do exactly what he did here).

- in SpyreX ISO 5, where he tries to derail Caboose's early fixation with alvinz.

Not

derail

persay, but more simply

understand

- looking at Caboose's day 1 alvinz play only makes sense with the knowledge that he is a cop. Without it, it appears like either a cop out from talking about the actual cases going on OR a very poorly done bus.

So, I asked him why he was fixated because he was fixated.

- in alvinz' final outbreak post, he claims that there are at least 3 scum on his wagon; superimposing the dead players' list on the alvinz-voters' list, that leaves 3 out of 4. Even considering that there can't be 3 more Russian scum I doubt alvinz was completely bluffing; in addition I doubt that at that point (cop guilty on alvinz) Russians would have tried anything else but fervent bussing; therefore the assumption is that if there are any Russians left, which I suspect to be true, they're likely among the four living alvinz-voters. One of them is SpyreX.

This is still built around the premise of another existing Russian, but it DOES make sense considering the natural inclination to spread suspicion. However, I think he used it as the flip-side of the WIFOM jungle: to try and get a mislynch down the road.

- no relevant mention of SpyreX from iamausername, despite the fact that they were both active users.

More of the above manipulations by scum. I'm not sure why IAUN didn't mention me much - the flipside is I didn't mention him much because I thought he was town. Almost as sure as I was of Rofl.

The fact that he was on OGB's wagon pretty early could easily have been pre-planned for town cred, or otherwise an early realization that he was a useless weight on the Russian mafia's shoulders.

Ohh hell yes if I was scum I would have been on that wagon early. Thus why even I think at least one of the earlier votes are scum. When you add in the existance of a second group there's probably scum all over that wagon - low risk lynches day 1 are tech.

Ultimately, I follow this. There's really no misrepresentations of whats happened - just incorrect conclusions on WHY its happened.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again - my play has been sub-par. For whatever reason I just can't "bite" into this. If I'm going to get strung up give me enough time to do a full analysis and we can go from there.

[SpyreX]

I was referring to the OGB lynch, not the Alvinz investigation-driven lynch.

[SpyreX]

In my rereading I'm getting a whole new set of concerns. Especially around charter who has been fairly absent as of yet. Expect something tonight.

[SpyreX]

I sat and reread this entire game. More than once.

And I actually came to a few realizations, as well as probably the rest of the Italian Mafia.

So, to start this is what we've been looking at:

Russians:
OozingGolfBall, 1-Shot Vigilante, Russian Mafia
alvinz95, Multitasker, Upper Roccisi Neighborhood, Russian Mafia
iamausername, 1-Shot Vigilante, Russian Mafia

Italians:
inHimshallibe, Godfather, Upper Roccisi Neighborhood, Italian Mafia
ThAdmiral, Doctor, Italian Mafia

So, I'm going to go on record and say that I bet the Russians are dead. So, last night we had a Russian Kill / Italian Kill / ? Kill

My reasoning for this is simple: Balance. Having an extra shot, albeit it even one, is one of the most powerful tools a scum team could have. The Russians have had two.

However, I'm going to also go on record with this: This setup isn't symmetrical. With what we've seen from the Italians I'm not buying into a 4:4 setup. Its 3:4 or even perhaps 3:5 (I personally lean 3:4). The Italians are a more conventional (if not strong) mafia: they had a doctor to protect against the myriad of kills, a godfather to mess with investigations (which helps affirm caboose since there has been no CC) and I'd imagine the other two are PR's as well.

So, with that said, who do I think they are?

Charter & Mixologist (Lowell)

Lets take a look back at our compatriots:

Charter was fairly, to me, pro-town day 1. However, there's a few problems. Charter was fairly adamant in his scumcalls early:

unvote, vote OGB
No one cares. You're only trying to fire up wild goose chases instead of hunt scum or take a stance on anything in the RVS.

I think Caboose, Seraphim, and OGB are all scumbuddies.

Caboose is scum too by the way.

AHAHAHAHAHA
Prolly copied from the front page. Good catch. Lynch Mufasa, then lynch Caboose.

Yep, Howard is scum too. All of this is just there to sound good, more not adding anything to the stew. Once again, no conclusions drawn other than his vague baseless assertation of my play being "questionable", whatever that is supposed to mean.

but THEN (in the same post as above) we get:

FOS Mixologist for 221. That post was a huge pile of fitting in with the crowd.

Now, thats the first FOS this game, and after the above fire it really stands out. Lets continue:

Absolutely. Not all games have a doc. I'd probably want to lynch this person.

It seems like quite the preparation for an inevitable doc claim coming from someone.

I'd also like to say, that Mufasa later said he couldn't vig. Something the mafia cannot fake easily. Just increases his scumminess tenfold.

Again, considering what happened this seems even MORE funny. Part of me thinks the last MIGHT have been an Italian vig. Double-plus bonus if Charter is said vig.

Then, of course:

FOS inHim.

I am running out of FOS's. SpyreX, help me!

Another FOS. On a flipped Italian. Hmmmm. He does rectify this in his next post (saying he's an outright scumbag) but then we move to:

I don't think I've ever seen scum try and claim vig. They're more than welcome to try though, but I bet it won't work.

Again. Seriously.

Then the late vote on OGB (which fits my Italian / Russian idea).

This is up to post 23ish of his 44 (all Day 1)

Then, after lynch right back on Mufasa. Not the vote, but its back there. A decent amount of back-and-forth about Sera.

A couple that stand out:

post 356- I don't think there is anything to get from ThAd. I agreed with a bunch of what he said, which makes me think he probably didn't say anything about his mafia partners (or innoculous things or just very little)
I do see why you think Caboose and ThAd could be partners, but early on it looked like Caboose and OGB could be partners, so Caboose could be a great lynch regardless.
I think you're reading too much into what ThAd posted, I don't think he left that many blatent links to buddies.

Which is interesting when you consider ThAdmirals very relaxed attitude around Charter (especially considering the "lynch the doc" business / ThAd being a doc).

So we come out to Day 3:

THANK YOU WHOEVER KILLED MUFASA. Now I can return to catching scumbags full time.

vote darkdude for his last ditch attempt to save alvinz.
If Caboose has a better lynch candidate, I'm all ears.

Should rofl's mason buddy claim? I think he should.

Mufasa was a crutch for the 5 fairly low content day 2 posts.

Then the business with the mason claim (which DOES make sense for scum to do - its nice to know who the confirmed town IS so you dont approach them in the incorrect way).

Then we get this today:

Currently thinking ekim or tajo is scum. Tajo's first read of everyone had both ThAd and inHim as prob town. For whatever reason, was devoid in lynching Alvinz.

ekim, his darkdude vote, 484, I feel like that was a giant pile of trying to fit in. He never mentioned inHim. He had this wierd addition to my back and forth with ThAd day one.

vote ekim
Think he's more likely to be scum.

The italics really is a setoff post. That IS what Charter has done with Mix thus far...

and to end:

That paraphrase Seraphim/X. Don't forget it. Also, both of you need to do it, in your own words. I don't want a hammer before this.

I really don't care if Mixologist posts or not, there's really little room for him to be scum in this game.

Yea.

Also, and I feel a bit dirty about this modfom: Mixologist IS a Power Role OR Scum (or both). Why else would you PM a mod during night? However, with what we've seen from the town roles....

Additionally, Lowell has provided little actual "content". Oddly enough his list gives charter a townvibe but he somehow doesn't make his list of pro-town players...

I feel pretty damn confident about this. Far more than I do with whats been happening today so far.

Unvote, Vote: Charter

[SpyreX]

...

I hate masons. Why, if you're masons, have you purposefully avoided each other like the plague? It doesn't make any sense.

And as for my wanting to kill Caboose:

I see what tajo is saying, but I have a really hard time stomaching killing a claimed cop. I need to think about that a bit more.

If they're both town I'll eat my hat. Vote stays.

[SpyreX]

No way we're getting a deadline extension. This game is covered in apathy. Yea, my last post was Sun and that was all of not even a page ago.

Like I said, I'm not buying it. I'd much rather lynch Charter than Lowell but I'm fine with either.

@charter: the post you said was me wanting to "kill the cop" was the same post I quoted that statement from.

2 days till deadline and deadline is a holiday. Lets get something done.

[SpyreX]

Don't like how Spyrex originally seemed to parrot off tajo with his 'having a hard time stomaching killing the cop' but didn't commit one way or the other. I don't see how you could possibly waiver on this issue. It also looks like he was waiting to see what everyone decided before acting (which is confirmed with his latest, one of Lowell and charter has to be scum, which is moronic if you read our posts).

I have made one whole line (which you have quoted and tried to misuse once already) in reference to what tajo is saying about caboose.

I can see where he is coming from; i.e. follow the thought process. However, I have a hard time stomaching lynching a claimed, un-cc'd cop who has given correct investigations. (My personal hypothesis would be that he is, if scum, a rolecop of some sort but I digress).

And I was waiting for others to act in regards to voting you? Really?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=750

And, almost immediately afterwards with two votes in rapid succession:

Woah I got votes. Not cool. Someone tell me what I've done wrong.

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, if anyone cares.

As for looking at your -posts- I did. You two have avoided each other like the plague.

Now, for the paraphrase:

me- hey
mix- hey
me- (claim my role)
mix- (claims role)
me- pretty sure Starbuck is scum. Lots of obvtowns.
mix- suspicious of starbuck, caboose, darkdude. Ask's me what to do if mufasa isn't vigged.
me- Don't give him a great chance at being scum, but he's hurting the town too much to live. I'm not sold on darkdude being scum, acted similar in a marathon game. Axelrod and Starbuck look scummy. Ask him about his calling out of me, tell him I'm not going to pursue it in thread anymore.

me- game is going down in history

Lowell- hello
me- I think you're town.

What is the night timeframe for this?

Why, if night 1 you thought darkdude wasn't scum, does anything you say reflect this.. ever?

Why is this game going down in history?

So, no, not buying it. At all. Lowell's latest vote also helps this.

[SpyreX]

I avoided my mason buddy entirely the last time I was mason with kmd, you forgotten that? Hard to believe.

Night 0 is our role claims and before.
Night 1 is after that and up to my long post
Night 2 is me saying the game is going down in history
Night 3 is the rest.

Why would I not say I didn't think darkdude was scum? I wasn't going to stick my neck out to try and save him when he was being entirely unhelpful. Why should I try and save him when I'm not sure he's town? Your question is a massive grasp at nothing.

Why is this game going down in history? Duh. Is this a serious question? Town is doing amazing.

I haven't forgot. I simply don't care. Meta, especially that kind of meta, is retarded.

So, during the night you say to your unconfirmed partner that you think darkdude is probably not scum. You then actively tell him to not pursue a line of discussion (his calling you out) in the game thread.

Day starts and you out of the gate do:

THANK YOU WHOEVER KILLED MUFASA. Now I can return to catching scumbags full time.

vote darkdude for his last ditch attempt to save alvinz.
If Caboose has a better lynch candidate, I'm all ears.

Should rofl's mason buddy claim? I think he should.

So, you said all of the above to him that night and immediately 180 and vote for the person you don't think is scum under the same grounds for riding the Mufasa wagon (and using it as an excuse for your play in said above post).

Its not a matter of 'saving' him. You went "I dont think he's scum" to your partner and then immediately voted him out of the block -

and he didn't say anything.

Yet when a minute amount of pressure is applied to both of you he freely admits the masonry link and the non-confirmedness...but doesn't want to give the neighborhood? Why is that?

Anywho lets continue:

Actually, thinking about it, if there's no support for a ekiM lynch, I say we lynch Charter. Confirming that neighbor claim, especially one that smells so bad, should be a priority.

Vote: charter

Le sigh. Its not about confirming a neighbor claim (which doesn't matter because neighbors can be scum so wooo). Its a matter of scum.

Lynching me to confirm a neighbor claim WHICH LOWELL ALREADY FUCKING CONFIRMED is too retarded to comprehend. Spyrex doesn't have a case for why I'm scum. He just mentions some stuff that I didn't do (don't see why I should either) and declares me scum.

I'm sorry Seraphim, but your reads this game have been all wrong, this one included, I wouldn't put any stock in them. Caboose is town, I'm town, Lowell is town, unfortunately, it seems you are too, Howard is, I think I'm forgetting one or two.

It's either tajo or Spyrex or both. We need to be lynching them.

I dont have a case? I guess I can put it in super bullet form.

1.) An adamancy in your scumcalls early minus Mix (who you fos for fitting in with the crowd and then never mention again).
2.) Pre-justification of a doc lynch that matches with my theory of you and mix being italians for bussing purposes.
3.) Your other FoS, not vote or even lets lynch, on inHim.
4.) The justification of doing very little on Mufasa still being alive.
5.) Voting for ekim for doing what you only FoS'd your partner for before (and what parallels your behavior in regards to him).
6.) Saying you dont care about Mixologist posting, because he can't be scum in this game...
7.) The modfom regarding Mix and what the mod said.

So yea, I mentioned some stuff that you did (or didn't do) because its scummy. You've rebutted me with *meta* for this at this point and a bit of shooing under the rug.

Even funnier is the fact your reply to Sera is "You were wrong before, therefore you are wrong now." I dont think I need to say much about that besides laying it out in a nice clean fashion.

And now you are saying the deadline scramble should be me based on...?

[SpyreX]

You know what.

I'm down with this.

100%

I'll even be that guy and start it off.

I'm the vanillaest of vanillas. No active / passive / groups. Just a guy.

And at everyone going charter/lowell vote:lowell.... why lowell over charter?

[SpyreX]

So you're just "backup cop" tajo without any scum partners I mean masonry/neighborhood links?

And theres a simple litmus test to remember tomorrow:

If (person posts on site) AND (person doesn't post in here) THEN (person is scum).

Real easy.

[SpyreX]

Also the fact that they really haven't done anything scummy.

Close, but lets fix it:

Also the fact that they really haven't done anything.

There, thats better.

And he misses nights with you and PM's the mod and thats totally sweeet?

Yea, I'm down with this.

[SpyreX]

Vote Count fixed.
Prodding Mixologist* and HowardRoark

*He PMed me during the night, I accepted that as picking up his prod from D1, because obviously, he couldn't reply to it in-thread at the time.

That's the modfom side of it.

[SpyreX]

Claim now plox.

Also and this is a very important note (as this is enough to switch to Lowell):

IF Lowell comes up as a vanilla mason (i.e. no active abilities) tomorrow lynch Charter.

[SpyreX]

I have never cared a whit about mason/neighbor. If you're going to say I have show examples.

However, and I am blaming this on being tired, I 100% misspoke earlier and I'm not sure how I did it... I meant to say:

If Lowell flips powered mason, lynch charter due to the "Ohh looks bad for him." instead of having an obvious reason for believing he would PM him.

However because a.) I think they are both scum and b.) they have now both claimed vanilla it is moot.

I will be voting Lowell. If Lowell is scum I will be voting charter. If Lowell is town I will be confused as all hell.

[SpyreX]

...Hence my saying I misspoke earlier and honestly didn't know why I did sans the fact I shouldn't be posting when I'm this tired.

I think I've made it abundantly clear I think both you and lowell are scum together. And, thus, when he flips scum you are dead gangbusters style.

Plus there's the fact that you now all of a sudden are fine with calling him a mason, but when he misspoke earlier it was the end of world.

Care to address this one though? As in, cite examples.

[SpyreX]

The claim ISN'T that shitty. Hell, for all I know you could actually BE part of the seaside masonry. However, when one of you is getting suspicion and then the other gets called out for a weird level of connectivity the whole game one of the FEW things you're gonna be able to do is claim masons together - which is even nicer when its neighbors and not masons.

And, as we've already seen two sets of them it doesn't even stand out from that sense.

I think you are scum together because of your play. Its that simple. You did nothing past day 1 in essence and blamed in on Mufasa with a very weird discrepancy in how you treated Italian mafia that have flipped / Mix/Lowell.

Lowell replaced in for a power lurker and hasn't given any real content AND there is the mod issue as a cherry.

I'm fine with either because I firmly expect both of you to flip scum (and probably end the game at that point).

There's no meta or wifom or any other mystic terms around this. Just simple play.

Bedtime for me before I stuff foot farther in mouth.

[SpyreX]

....

I'm missing in the above anything resembling a case on me.

Which with the moving towards deadline in a rapid fashion really, really bothers me.

And as for Charter/Lowell. I'm fine with either because I think the whole mason business is moot and they have behaved as scum would not as masons.

[SpyreX]

I am flabbergasted at this page now.

1.) Kison throws down for me with no reason.
2.) Seraphim manages to give even less reasoning.
3.) Korts, who had valid reasons earlier albeit wrong, feels the need to throw on his vote under the guise of "I'm not on a wagon" when I've made it clear that I WILL be voting for Lowell and simply haven't yet because a.) I'd rather see charter and b.) I wanted everyone to clam
--- Hint: Who hasn't fully claimed yet?

I don't see how you can think me and Lowell are scumbuddies when there's already five scum dead. I'm sorry, but there is not seven or eight scum in this game. For that many you need ~30 players, and that's without them all having power roles and so far, all of our scum have ridiculously good roles.

Spyrex is grasping to try and set up the charter/Lowell chainlynch. I bet he's the last scum trying to figure out how he's going to win this game.

A group of 3 and a group of 4? Yea, in this setup that doesn't phase me a bit.

I'm not grasping. See, part of me is a-ok if I end up taking the noose today because 1.) it'll show that ohh hay I'm not a scum making this up and 2.) It'll shine a fat old light on this awesome wagon.

So,

unvote, vote Lowell

I'd love to see an explanation for.. well.

[SpyreX]

This is going to be quite the apathetic lynch. Yee-haw

[SpyreX]

And I come back to absolutely nothing said. Awesome.