Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Game Over!

[Adel]

'sup tubby, how are you doing?

[Adel]

hi Adel. Should i just go quietly to the gallows now and save you the trouble of building a case and the endless pages of debates, useless defenses and witty banter? or would you rather we just play this out?

well since you pretty much just admitted that you are scum I think we should skip the banter and go off straight to the gallows with you!

vote: tubby216

I suspect that you are a demoralized purple goon and let that slip out due to overwhelming pessimism.

[Adel]

dude, did you just update your sig to say

need replacements for games i is in
mafia 88 pm the fonz

?!?
you are quitting?

[Adel]

so you are still participating just until The Fonz finds a replacement for you?

[Adel]

oh. nevermind then. I was all like WTF!

anyhow, I haven't read the game yet, and I still think you are purple.

[Adel]

lol, thanks!

I haven't read the game, that will take a week or so, but once I have I will start typing up a storm.

[Adel]

is anyone familiar with the "unrecruited mafia traitor" role? how do you suppose it works?

[Adel]

ok so there are 8 people left alive, its my guess that are 3 scum left

why 3? How many scum groups do you think we have?

I still haven't read the entire game yet, but could someone help me by answering:

• 1. did Der Hammer claim "miller" after it was revealed by the mod that there are two cops in the setup?
  How is a claimed miller still alive?
  Are we looking for 3 player or 4 player scum groups?

[Adel]

diddn't der hammer claime miller way back forever ago?

yes.

I have formed the opinion that lynching me actually is a good option for the town. Here is my reason. I am a Miller.

Regardless of whether I suddenly got very active in this game someone would still suspect me for my start, which is bound to lead to confusion. Like I said, I am a Miller, so clearly sooner or later I am going to be incorrectly lynched and I don't want a scenario where a cop comes out to get me lynched on the basis of a false investigation......it is therefore that I dishonourably disarge myself and now endorse a Der Hammer lynch.

Vote:Der Hammer

then he self voted, then he unvoted himself to vote for you, of all people.

[Adel]

EBWOQ:

then he self voted, then he unvoted himself to vote for

you, of all people.

Seraphim

I misread, sorry.

[Adel]

Both Ectomancer and Adel seem to be getting a serious case of selective scumhunting.

I haven't even read the game yet, as I've stated twice. What is your deal? Are you just feeling jealous because I'm doing more scumhunting than you are?

[Adel]

xyl was unrecruited. meaning he belonged to neither,
the only reason xyl thought me scum was do to my preformance in his game xyl's relative chaos where i was scum.



but here is a question,
if you lynch me today and i am townwill that put us a lylo tomorrow?

In my opinion, unlikely.

unvote

why did you think that lylo was "unlikely"?

[Adel]

be careful what you wish for.

It is taking a lot longer than expected: I haven't played in a game with more than 12 players for a long time, and I forgot how the complexity of the game's relationships increases geometrically with the number of players.

[Adel]

I'm starting to think that there is valuable information that can be extracted from the kill flavor.

who knows what "defenestration" means?

wikipedia article

Defenestration is the act of throwing someone or something out of a window. The term was coined around the time of an incident in Prague Castle in the year of 1618. The word comes from the Latin de (from; out of) and fenestra (window or opening).[1]
Although defenestrations can be fatal depending on the height of the window through which a person is thrown (see Falling), or lacerations from broken glass, the

act of defenestration need not carry the intent or result of death.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestration

15.

Hoopla,

Paramedic (One-Shot Doctor)

, died appropriately, Night 3.
20. Elmo,

Townie,

died fruitily, Night 3.
16. Skitzer,

Miller,

died medievally, Night 3.

5.

SensFan,

Vanilla Townie,

lynched day 4.

17.

xyzzy

Xtoxm,

Colombian Cartel Goon,

had his throat cut Night four.

19.

GeorgeCarlin

Incognito

Xylthixlm,

Unrecruited Mafia Traitor

, garrotted Night 4.

18.

Panda Stomper 85

vollkan,

Vanilla Townie,

defenestrated Night 4.

"fruitily" makes me think of Miami
"medievally" makes me think of Colombia

wikipedia article

A Colombian necktie, also known as the Italian necktie, Sicilian necktie, Cuban necktie, and less frequently, Mexican necktie, is a method of execution where the victim's throat is slashed (with a knife or other sharp object) and their tongue is pulled out through the open wound. It was a popular method of killing during the Colombian history period called La Violencia that started in 1948 after the leader Jorge Eliecer Gaitan was murdered.
The Colombian Necktie is sometimes erroneously credited as having been invented by drug kingpin Pablo Escobar, but this infamous method of killing was already present since 1950, during La Violencia in Colombia's civil war, it was performed on enemies as psychological warfare meant to scare and intimidate those who later encountered the body.[1][2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_necktie

Xtoxm wasn't killed by his own side...

I think our scum crosskilled last night (my hunch is that that Xyl could have won with either scum team, a remote possibility is that there is a some type of limited cult mechanic in play) and we may have a vig and not an sk left in the game due to flavor. I also think that both scumteams have a living powerrole, and a massclaim is a bad idea. My analysis of the setup leads me to believe that we are still facing:
2 red scum (1 is probably a powerrole)
1 purple scum (probable powerrole)
1 or 0 players who share Xyl's role pm (Der Hammer?)
1 or 0 Sk

So out of eight alive, either 3 or 4 or 5 are scum.

~~~

Er, no OGML. It's not an ad homiem because I am not using that argument to discard your case against me.

Yos2: There's a reason I want OGML to reply me today, because I think there is a decent chance of me being NKed and OGML being given a free pass for his behaviour tomorrow.

this post was never answered, and Sir T was apparently killed by more than one scum group.

I think a critical question is "why was Sir T the only one killed night 1?"

I found this exchange to be interesting:

Why are you not surprised that SirT was killed?

Why do I feel like you were planning on laying the blame for Sir T´s death at my feet long before you made this post?

Please answer the question. Why are you not surprised that SirT was killed?

Multiple people were vocally suspicious of him, making him a plausible pro town kill.

His death throws obvious suspicion onto me, as you so underhandedly pointed out, making him a plausible scum kill.

So either way I'm not surprised he took a bullet.

Oh

.

Good point. Carry on.

Is this a scumtell against OGML or a town-tell?

DH was one of the top two lynch candidates yesterday. Why shouldn't we keep looking at him today?

exactly i wanted him gone i was on his wagon, but i consider the rehashing the der hammer case day after day to be very anit town especially when he hasn't posted today yet ( that i know of) either we lynch him now or we don't thats it.

continue this line of misdirection and you will earn my vote, i am trying to finish the scum reads on you first before i make my decsion

Why hasn't Der Hammer been lynched or nk'd?

[Adel]

also, what are the odds that Xyl knew some or all of the names of the various mafia members?

[Adel]

does anyone have a list of The Fonz's previously modded games?

links would be great.

the only one I can find is Mini 508- Trouble in New Catania

link to roles and role PMs: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 822#984822

2 mafia goons
1 mafia doctor (could either protect or commit the kill each night)
1 Bulletproof townie
1 vig
1 doctor
1 tracker
5 townies

~~~

I'm not wrapping my head around this mafia traitor role very well.

brainstorming:
1. a survivor who wins only if he survives and a mafia team wins at the end.
2. a neutral player who gets a mafia win condition if he gets recruited by either the Miami or Colombian mafias.
3. a player aligned with a specific mafia faction (a third scum group like the Italian mafia?) who has to get recruited by them to be able to commit the nk or talk with them at night.

we've asumed that the extra kill came from a vig or a sk, but could it be from a cult that could either kill or recruit each night?

the cop who was killed then wasn't supposed to have died mod error thing -- could it have been the result of a cult team sending in both a kill as well as a recruit order? or the doctor sending in the protect to one mod and not the other? is there a major clue relating to this that I am not aware of?

[Adel]

There's a bunch of people we need to hear from; I don't know why so many people are going quiet in such a critical situation, but I don't like it.

this totally reminds me of Mr. Flay's Lost Boys Mafia. My hunch: they are all scum, and don't want to draw a cross kill.

~~~

@tuby, I'm thinking that you are town. I normally wouldn't tell you, but I think that there are only a few of us left, and we need to work together.

[Adel]

@tuby, I'm thinking that you are town. I normally wouldn't tell you, but I think that there are only a few of us left, and we need to work together.

ok i am giving you some latitude , but you know what that looks like right?


also i would like your thoughts on yos and ogml please

ogml is totally lynchable.
If I had to pick one person right now it would mostly be off of intuition, and would be either OGML or Ecto.

I think Yos is going to die tonight regardless, of his alignment.

[Adel]

based off of the posts at http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#321990 I've concluded that Der Hammer is an alt used to escape meta analysis. He was in several active games under the Der Hammer name, and the rest have ended except for this one. I think he joined his new games under a different alt so that the scumtells he dropped in this game would not be used against him in his other games.

[Adel]

ok well i am up for a ogml lynch, but do you feel that he is better than der hammer and if so why,

I don't think that he is a better lynch than Der Hammer at this time, especially since I've looked into his current meta a little more deeply since my post where I siad that he was "totally lynchable".

[Adel]

@ CarnCarn and Der Hammer:

what do you make of the information found at http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... mausername

?

[Adel]

vote: CarnCarn

[Adel]

in post 1526

[Adel]

vote: CarnCarn

So, what were you referring to, then?

your probable alignment

[Adel]

mod

are you currently seeking replacements for any players? (I don't see a request in the replacements thread in the Queue forum.) If you are, can we advertise for replacements in our signature lines?

[Adel]

FYI, there is a new thread at http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10649 and JDodge is doing a much better job of keeping the OP updated. Currently it shows that there are not any Large Normal Games that need replacements.

[Adel]

um, a claimed miller has been lurking, and has a convenient excuse to continue lurking right up to the fucking deadline, and nobody is challenging him.

[Adel]

would our lurkers please explain why we shouldn't lynch Der Hammer, and if they think we shouldn't

please tell us who we should lynch instead and why!

[Adel]

do you have anything to say carn carn?

[Adel]

vote:Carn Carn

[Adel]

Howdy, y'all! I am replacing Ectomancer. Let me do a quick re-read. Are we against a deadline?

yes. each day, after the first, has a 30 day deadline

[Adel]

Unvote
Vote: Yosarian2

Adel, what do want me to say - I've got nothing to respond to and Y2's vote for me is pretty scummy.

As opposed to tubby, I don't have a good town feel on Y2 for pushing the lurker lynches of me and DH when IAAUN is also completely gone. Scumbuddies much?

your post would've been a hell of a lot more convincing had you voted for iamausername.

I think lynching red us suboptimal to lynching purple, given a choice between the two.

Lynching the active red partner is subhoptimal to lynching the lurking scum partner, given a choice between the two.

I'm calling Carn Carn as the purple scum.

[Adel]

We'll get back to OGML in a bit. Why Ectomancer (me)?

a player specific tell I have against ecto... but he replaced out, which indicates to me that out of game events are probably the real cause.

Why do you believe that Yosarian2 will be NK tonight?

scum are killing off active players. (except for xtoxm)

What did you find in 10 hours about OGML's meta that made you change your mind?

my player specific tell against him was out of date. his playstyle had changed.

I would like to know why you believe that CarnCarn is purple Columbian scum.

I smell violets when I read his posts.

[Adel]

I give him props as a player and a person for making a real effort though.

HR -- how many times have you replaced into a game before?

[Adel]

~ 4 days to deadline...

[Adel]

well what the hell happened to carn carn? seriously he gained pressure responded then howard game in and no he is ghost?? wtf??

the answers you seek are located at: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... r=CarnCarn

[Adel]

Right. Attention forces with nightkills - please make sure HowardRoark does not live to see the next dawn.

Somebody else please step up before the deadline and make sure we don't end up with a no lynch.

add Der Hammer to that list.

I want Der Hamer, Carn Carn and HR dead by tomorrow.

[Adel]

I actually prefer the Der Hammer lynch to Carn Carn.

becareful adel the ice pack you are standing on is getting thinner

lol.
or what? you'll threaten to go "MMA" on me again like you did in mini 703? I recall that not working out for you very well.

[Adel]

@yos & tubby? Want to switch to Der Hammer with me?

[Adel]

all righty then, lets mess up the votecount before The Fonz finishes!

unvote, vote: Der Hammer

[Adel]

Why am I not on this list, Adel?

Also, general question to everyone, why on earth have you let me off the hook so much today? Seriously.

the same reason I nk'd you in mini 650 -- i think you are hard to fool as town in end game.

you were let off the hook because the lurkers outnumbered the active players

[Adel]

Carn is a much better lynch than der hammer

based upon wagon performance, I now think that Carn is more likely to be red than Der Hammer, and I still think both are highly likely to be scum

[Adel]

seriously, Der Hammer is a claimed miller, and I think there is a greater % chance of him being scum, of either color. I think he is the safer lynch, and prolly more likely to be purple to boot.

[Adel]

unvote, vote:CarnCarn

you guys have 24 hours.

[Adel]

competing wagons force lurkers to take a position.

read mini 703 to see me debating this with skilled and skeptical townie players, and winning the game for town.

[Adel]

Votecount:
Yosarian2 (1): CarnCarn
CarnCarn (4): Yosarian2, OhGodMyLife, Adel, Tubby
Der Hammer (2): HowardRoark, iamausername

I forgot that OGML had committed to CarnCarn.

unvote, vote: Der Hammer

Votecount:
Yosarian2 (1): CarnCarn
CarnCarn (3): Yosarian2, OhGodMyLife, Tubby
Der Hammer (3): HowardRoark, iamausername, Adel

[Adel]

*and Ecto has not been replaced yet.
~~~
CarnCarn please vote for Der Hammer so that he can be hammered.

[Adel]

Vote:Carncarn

lynching me at this point would be counterproductive.

fwiw, this was der hammer's first post on this site in 15 days.

[Adel]

unvote, vote:CarnCarn

for the hammer, i think, unless I still can't count.

[Adel]

OGML is an idiot for not killing Der Hammer.

I'm ok with a massclaim.

[Adel]

Could Der Hammer be a mafia goon in a mafia that has a living doctor in it?

That would explain why OGML didn't kill Der Hammer -- he had already failed in the past. I suspect that The Fonz didn't use symmetrical scum teams in this game.

I haven't done a read of OGML's posts yet. But that is something I'm looking for: evidence of a failed kill. Please tell me if you find it first.

[Adel]

Yeah, massclaim now. Does anyone care about an order, or should we just go whenever?

popcorn with Der Hammer picking who goes next.

I suspect that The Fonz didn't use symmetrical scum teams in this game.

Is there any reason for this besides it working as an explanation for why OGML never killed Der Hammer?

Xyl's role still seems weird to me, since none of the Purple roles indicate the ability to recruit. The vig totally should have killed the claimed & lurking Miller.

With two cops, it seems likely that godfather = inv-immune, though. And I'm pretty sure it wouldn't mean inv-immune AND nk-immune, considering how frequently I've seen The Fonz bitching about how unfair it is to give both to SKs.

I totally agree with this. He talked me out of using a dual-immune Sk in a game that he reviewed for me.

Adel, why did you hammer CarnCarn after Der Hammer had just proved that he had not flaked, and was in fact continuing to shamelessly lurk, as he has throughout the entire game?

I was expecting a vig-kill or SK-pretending-to-be-a-vig-kill to take Der Hammer out. I also thought that CarnCarn was a really acceptable lynch.

[Adel]

why not Iamusername-Der Hammer?

[Adel]

Still, I think the lynch today is either Iamusername or Tubby; I have trouble coming up with a probable scum group that dosn't inclue one of them.

I'm having trouble imagining a scum group that doesn't include Der Hammer.

[Adel]

tubby -- if you are town and I were scum I would lynch you at lylo. I would engineer a "choose one: tubby or Adel" choice for the other players, and I would beat you by being more active and more experienced at lylo.


~~~~~~~

@Der Hammer's Replacement:

First, thanks for replacing in.

We are currently stalled out and waiting for a massclaim.

We will claim in popcorn order, with each person to claim naming the next person to claim.

We need you to claim as soon as possible

.

Thanks, and welcome again to the game.

[Adel]

do you want to name who claims next now, or later?

[Adel]

Who has claimed thus far?

since this post:

iamausername made zero other posts elsewhere on this site.
tubby made two posts elsewhere on the site.
yos2 made five posts elsewhere on the site.

~~~

there are no other claims that I am aware of.

@tubby and yos2: why did you choose to not answer Seraphim's question?

[Adel]

How would you go about engineering that choice, exactly?

PBPA, active posting, continuous attacks. All part of building a plausible sounding case, sticking with it, and picking apart each of his responses with cold and crystalline logick.

~~~

Speaking of plausible cases, what were OGML's vig choices each night?

Would he have targeted Der Hammer N1? Could he have targeted Der Hammer on any of the following nights?

[Adel]

Vote: Militant

Claus kill isn't unexpected, though I was hoping for some doc saving action.

Shanba kill is a surprise though.

Two scumgroups it is. I stand corrected.

I've got out next scum though.

Vote: iamausername

I've been vascillating on xyl being scum for the last two days, but I'm pretty sure now that he and username make way too much sense as a scumpair. Just look at sobeahero (who iaun replaced) defending the everliving fuck out of george carlin (who xyl replaced), and littering his posts with false dilemmas so bad that even username had to call them out when he replaced.

*sings* I'm paranoid I'm paranoid and everybody's coming to get me

Anyway, agree that DH is still town despite skitzer being a miller (two cops after all)

Like I said, vascillating on xyl. He's a slippery mofo and I'm still having trouble pinning him down. But I think username is scummy in addition to the xyl connection.

So it turns out I mixed up which of xyl and iaun was doing the defending and between all those replacements, and its not the lock I thought it was. However, I still find username scummy on his own.

On a seperate note, I think that its likely we're dealing with three more scum - two florida and one cartel. This means there is the potential for florida mafia to win after today if there is both a non-florida lynch and three non-florida deaths in the night. Which means its probably time for a massclaim.

I have another theory as to how xyl's role could have worked. If the setup is two mafia groups of three, then the mafia traitor could have been a role which was recruitable by either mafia group (which would mean xyl had no knowledge about who was in any scum group).

This seems like a pretty elegant role mechanic, and also means that if I'm right we know xyl was not killed by either the florida or cartel group, because that would have resulted in recruitment rather than death.

purple scum - carncarn

red scum - ecto/howardroark and either iamausername (more likely) or yosarian2 (less likely)

town - everybody else

Unvote, Vote: CarnCarn

~~~

I propose that OGML killed:
N1: Sir T
N2: Militant
N3: Hoopla
N4: Xylthixlm
N5: HowardRoark

and never targeted Der Hammer.

~~~

@Seraphim: which possibility do you think is more likely?
1. OGML was killed to setup iamausername
2. OGML was killed by a scumgrup that includes iamausername

How obvious do you think it was that OGML was an obvious vig?

On which day do you think the scum should've figured out that he was scum?

[Adel]

EBOWP:
On which day do you think the scum should've figured out that he was

scum

a vig?

[Adel]

please read this page and try again: there are several questions you could answer.

[Adel]

@Seraphim: are you ready to name the next person to claim?

I see that you've made 15 posts on this site since your last post in this game. Are you stalling?

[Adel]

vanilla townie.

I want tubby to claim next.

[Adel]

I'd much rather lynch Seraphim. His continued greater level of activity in other games just re-enforces the scumminess of Der Hammer's lurking and miller claim.

[Adel]

My gut still says that if I just agree with Yos2 I should be able to slip by.

fixed.

[Adel]

are you sure this is lynch or lose?

i mean sure its possible but there were still two kills last nite, so to me there is probably two killing elements left

This post is uber-scummy. Yes, we should assume LYOL because there is a scumteam out there with two likely living members(Florida Mafia) and five living players in the town as a whole, scum can win if we do not hit scum today.

And the second kill was probably OGML's kill, tubby. Are you trying to confuse the town and achieve a mislynch?

I like this post. My question was intentionally loaded (actually it contained a false choice) and to answer an earlier question: it is not obvious to me that yos would be Seraphim's buddy. Seraphim's play seems a little too transparent for that.

[Adel]

really he seems pretty active in this since its a lurkfest

what are the names of the lurkers?

[Adel]

a new system for reducing scum influence in lylo:

• 1. players assign points in three rounds.
  2. each round each players assigns three points to scummy players. Points can not be saved for later use.
  3. each player can only assign, at most, two points per player per round.
  4. the first person to assign points in the first round is determined by a dice roll (randomly).
  5. after assigning points each player rolls a die to determine who assigns points next.
  6. since there are a total of 30 points, 16 points represents a true majority.

I suspect that the faster we start this process, the less likely it will be that the scum will figure out how to roll with it.

As soon as three of us post

support point plan

someone should post this:

Code: Select all

[dice]1d5[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. tubby
5. Yos2

to determine who goes first, and we will be off.

~~~

as an example, if the result of that first dice roll were tubby, he would either assign two points to Player X and one point to Player Y, or one point each to Players X, Y, and Z.
He would then post:

Code: Select all

[dice]1d4[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. Yos2

to determine who goes next.

Supposing that I was the last player to go in round one, I would assign my points, and post

Code: Select all

[dice]1d5[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. tubby
5. Yos2

to determine who goes first in round 2.

~~~

so yeah, that is the plan, and as soon as two more of you post

support point plan

we can get started.

[Adel]

try reading it again. the post is rather explicit.


~~~

Code: Select all

[dice]1d8[/dice]

within code tags keeps the dice from being rolled, otherwise you would just see:

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Adel]

tubby are you actually working at getting me to vote for you? Are you scum with Seraphim and trying to set up an iamausername mislynch?

[Adel]

So...is this supposed to determine who we lynch, Adel? How does points instead of votes reduce scum influince?

lylo:
one townie votes, two scum can hammer.

this method produces more information in the event of a successful lynch, and greatly reduces the risk of a scum quickhammer.

[Adel]

How does points instead of votes reduce scum

influence

?

the random order, and being forced to split points amoung two or more players each round.

[Adel]

do you finally feel like looking over the last two pages and catching up on the questions you have not answered?

[Adel]

also, do you support the plan?

[Adel]

6. since there are a total of 30 points, 16 points represents a true majority.

5 players * 3 points * 3 rounds = 45 points in total, not 30, no?

oops. It was 2 points per player/round, then I thought about it and upped it to three.

23 points to lynch then.

[Adel]

ok, that is three, so here goes:

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. tubby
5. Yos2

[Adel]

yos2 goes first

you can just cut and paste this:

Code: Select all

[dice]1d4[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. tubby

to the next person after you have assigned your points.

[Adel]

EBWOP:
to pick the next person after you have assigned your points.

[Adel]

Seraphim is next.

here is a code block to cut & paste:

Code: Select all

[dice]1d3[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. tubby 

current tally:
iamausername: 2
tubby: 1

with 45 points, 23 will lynch.

[Adel]

2 points Seraphim, 1 point tubby

Original Roll String: 1d1

1 1-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

1. tubby

[Adel]

ok so now what ??

you assign your three points and post

Code: Select all

[dice]1d5[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. tubby
5. Yos2 

to start the second round.

[Adel]

thanks.

2 points tubby
1 point Seraphim

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

1. iamausername
2. Seraphim
3. Yos2

[Adel]

does everyone else have these totals?
tubby: 11
Seraphim: 11
iamausername: 8
Yos: 2

[Adel]

now I get the same numbers as you. thanks.

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

1. iamausername
2. tubby
3. Yos2

2 points Seraphim, 1 point iamausername


round 1:

• 1. Yos2: 2 iamusername, 1 tubby
  2. Seraphim: 2 tubby, 1 iamausername
  3. iamausername: 2 Yos2, 1 Seraphim
  4. Adel: 2 Seraphim, 1 tubby
  5. tubby: 2 Seraphim, 1 iamausername

round 2:

• 1. tubby: 2 Seraphim, 1 iamausername
  2. Adel: 2 tubby, 1 Seraphim
  3. Seraphim: 2 tubby, 1 iamausername
  4. iamausername: 2 Seraphim, 1 tubby
  5. Yos2: 2 iamusername, 1 point tubby

round 3

• 1. Seraphim: 2 tubby, 1 iamusername
  2. Adel: 2 Seraphim, 1 amausername

which should make:
tubby: 12
Seraphim: 12
iamausername: 10
Yos2: 2
Adel: 0

[Adel]

with 45 possible points, 23 would be a majority. We aren't going to meet that thresh-hold, but I suggest that we finish the final round and then determine our next step.

[Adel]

actually the plan was designed to fail its explicit purpose: no lynch was supposed to occur.
This was in information-gathering gambit.

Now we have more information (of a useful nature, I hope) to deduce partners.

My first impressions are that tubby received more points than I expected, and iamausername abandoned his Yos2 wagon more easily than I expected.

[Adel]

I expect the most fruitful line of analysis to be based upon "who was protecting whom" and "whose point assignments do not jive with earlier suspicions".

[Adel]

Had I realised the existence of the point threshhold at that time,

weren't you the one that pointed out my math error?

6. since there are a total of 30 points, 16 points represents a true majority.

5 players * 3 points * 3 rounds = 45 points in total, not 30, no?

oh yeah, you were.

vote:iamausername

[Adel]

I have my reasons. I am more interested in what reasons ohter people have in joining his wagon.

[Adel]

this is all very interesting.

[Adel]

i'm calling the iamausername+Yos2 scum team.

nice bus fellas.

[Adel]

tubby, here are Seraphim's totals, which I think are correct:

tubby: 13
Seraphim: 14
iamusername: 13
Yos2: 4
Adel: 1

I forgot about the 23 point threshold, I thought it was just whoever gets the most points that was important. If I'd remembered that, I probably wouldn't have given that one point to tubby last time. Oh well.

2 points Yos, 1 point Adel.

If the point I gave to tubby went to Yos instead, that comes back to my original planned distribution of points, before it became clear that nobody else was going to give anything to Yos or Adel.

iamausername abandoned his Yos2 wagon more easily than I expected.

In the second round, I thought we were going to lynch whoever came out of it with the most points. When the time came for me to give my points in that round, it was obvious that there was zero chance that that was going to be Yos or Adel, so giving points to either would simply be throwing away my influence on the vote. I gave two to Seraphim, one to tubby, because I suspect Seraphim more than I suspect tubby, and I suspect tubby more than I suspect myself, and we were the only three lynches on the table.

Had I realised the existence of the point threshhold at that time, I'd have given 2 to Seraphim and 1 to Yos, making my final totals 5 to Yos, 3 to Seraphim, 1 to Adel. 5/3/1 to my top three suspects seemed like the best way to distribute points to represent my opinions.

But one thing this exercise has shown is that if the scumteam is Yos/Adel, town is screwed. That's a pretty big concern right now.

this is all bullshit. he was thinking carefully about it, weighting options, but forgot everything else about it... I don't buy it. Look at him buss Yos2 -- constantly pointing blame at Yos2 without actually doing anything to lynch Yos2. He just rolls over and is willing to lynch Seraphim.

[Adel]

I have to go.

unvote

[Adel]

I'm not about to walk away from my computer with a vote that I am that uncertain of. So I unvoted. I theory has you and iamausername settling on Seraphim or tubby for today's lynch for the win.

[Adel]

This actually made me laugh though I can't say it's a valid argument.

I suppose what he's saying is that if Adel was scum, she would be attacking him like crazy, which may have some validity to it.

while you are contradicting yourself, tubby is right. Unless I am scum with him, I would probably do onto him as I did onto SensFan in mini 650 (my most recent game as scum) -- check my wiki page for a link.

[Adel]

also, iamausername was in that game, and saw me replace in and lynch SensFan (before lylo) with a shit-ton of words & work for stuff Sensfan did before I replaced in.

Adel wasn't even in the game on D1, though.

this seems especially weak to me.

[Adel]

i'm calling the iamausername+Yos2 scum team.

nice bus fellas.

That's weak, Adel. Why would scum want to bus in lynch or lose?

I think every time I've been scum in 5p lylo, I've attacked my partner. If Adel's done any looking into my past games at all, I'm sure she's noticed this trend.

lol, thanks guys.

[Adel]

Adel replaced in on N4, so we're only looking at yesterday here. I'm looking through it, and I don't see anybody chomping at the bit to get a tubby wagon going. Adel did, in fact, vote you, before she'd read the thread and apparently in a semi-joking manner. Ectomancer voted you. No one else showed any interest in a tubby lynch. I'm not seeing how that constitutes "tubby wagon was ready and waiting, and just needed a little push from Adel to tip it over the edge".

how would you describe the process by which I lynched SensFan?
How hard would it have been for me to lynch tubby?

@tuby, I'm thinking that you are town. I normally wouldn't tell you, but I think that there are only a few of us left, and we need to work together.

When and why did you change your mind about this, Adel?

tubby's playstyle is changing. He is evolving into a general lurker. I still think he is town, but I am less confident than I was when I first replaced in.

~~~

@Seraphim & tubby: do you guys agree with my Yos2+iamausername pairing?

Is there another pairing that makes more sense to you?

[Adel]

i'm calling the iamausername+Yos2 scum team.

nice bus fellas.

That's weak, Adel. Why would scum want to bus in lynch or lose?

I think every time I've been scum in 5p lylo, I've attacked my partner. If Adel's done any looking into my past games at all, I'm sure she's noticed this trend.

lol, thanks guys.

oh, and just to be clear, I have not compiled a meta on iamausername yet. I just noticed that this post gives the impression that I had.

[Adel]

That's weak, Adel. Why would scum want to bus in lynch or lose?

Same reason they'd want to bus any other time. To throw the town off their scent.

I think every time I've been scum in 5p lylo, I've attacked my partner. If Adel's done any looking into my past games at all, I'm sure she's noticed this trend.

Anyone else read this as "Hey, I'm scum and I think I'm going to get lynched today; let me see if I can link myself to Yos here so my real partner can manipulate Adel into voting for Yos tommorow"?

WIFOM gives me life.

[Adel]

tubby's playstyle is changing. He is evolving into a general lurker. I still think he is town, but I am less confident than I was when I first replaced in.

That's delightfully vague. And if you still think he is town, why did he get more points from you than anyone but Seraphim?

To see how strong his wagon could get. I consider him to be the easiest person in the game to lynch, and I was curious who else was willing to place points on him. You bit.

I have not compiled a meta on iamausername yet.

the same reason I nk'd you in mini 650 -- i think you are hard to fool as town in end game.

What gave you the impression that I am "hard to fool as town in end game", if not meta analysis?

The meta I built on you for 650 that game was for you as town in endgame, and powerrole tells. I knew you weren't scum (since I was) so I looked at your town games.

@Adel:

If you think he's my partner, would you be willing to vote Yos today?

sorry, missed it. Not especially, but I am willing for someone other than you to sell me on the idea.

[Adel]

...Interesting, Iamusername. Why the unvote?

IT'S A TRAP!

Yeah.

yeah.

vote: iamausername

he is at lynch -1

[Adel]

fuck fuck fuck...

[Adel]

goddamn it why did you hammer? gg if you are scum, I was watching the fact that Yos2 was in New York, and I was testing to see if he would unvote

[Adel]

I wasn't ready to lynch him yet. Did you just win? He is clearly lynched.

[Adel]

he is at lynch -1

Not for long, I imagine.

seriously, are you scum? Is the game over?

[Adel]

tubby + yos2, are you guys scum together?

[Adel]

waiting on fonz then.

[Adel]

sorry guys, the way the night kills worked out just made this easy for us.

I replaced in & identified Xtoxm as purple so we nk'd him, then we lynched purple, then yos identified OGML as vig (obvious after he pointed it out, I was looking for a SK) & so there we were in lylo as the two least suspicious players.

I don't want to share our QT thread for my own secret reasons. If you are ever scum with me in a future game you will likely appreciate my discretion.

Thanks for modding Fonz. I enjoyed this game.

[Adel]

overkill

[Adel]

also, it wasn't bullshit. That was one good way to additional information from players in LYLO without risking a scum quick-hammer.

[Adel]

Well, yeah. But you lost AT MOST one day of Claus.

and got one day of mod-confirmed Claus in the game. An active and motivated and skilled player like Claus being mod-confirmed can be a powerful force in a game.

[Adel]

I just noticed that this was my 10th game as mafia -- I have a 70% win rate as mafia now.

[Adel]

They should have been forced to spend a kill on me, just like they would if the mod error didn't happen.

whose kill would you have taken away? The FL or the Colombian?

What is the better solution you would have used in his place?

[Adel]

town apathy is probably most most valuable asset a scum team can enjoy.

[Adel]

They should have been forced to spend a kill on me, just like they would if the mod error didn't happen.

whose kill would you have taken away? The FL or the Colombian?

Whoever targetted me. They would have lost their kill to the doc the first time anyway.

so they killed Claus, only for him to be stumped instead, and then would lose their kill on the next night -- all through no fault of their own. That would be seen as hella unfair by the scum team. You could've had successful investigation results from the previous night to reveal, Fonz didn't know. 7/16 other players were scum at point in the game -- almost 50-50.


You easily could've gotten Yos2 lynched if you had tried hard enough, even without faking a result. You were a mod-confirmed cop. As it worked out, scum got lynched on day 3 anyway, leaving (2 vs 2)+1 vs 9, with one vig and one 1-shot doc (and two millers) left on the town side, which seems about balanced to me.

I think OGML's horrible aim (except for killing Xyl, good job there) and townie apathy (and the Colombians not getting a cross-kill in) had far more to do with the town's loss then mod error did... dual-scum games are always going to be swingy.

~~~

on the other hand, I think that if OGML killed you, taking away his kill on the following night probably would've been a good solution.

[Adel]

actually, taking away OGML's kill on the following night + stumping you might have been a better solution regardless.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[Adel]

On, and Fonz, you are right about the replacing thing. It is just frustrating to see a team which was already controlling the game having that position consolidated by having Adel added to it.

the cops were dead, and the Colombians had a nk-immune player with the vig still on the loose, whereas our godfather was investigation immune. Our numbers were even. If anything, they should've had the advantage.

I identified Xtoxm as probable scum, and the CarnCarn lynch was not a predictable result -- I walked in expecting to lynch Tubby or Der Hammer.

[Adel]

I liked you as vig in this game