Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Game Over!

[Yosarian2]

IGMEOY:Hoopla

Because I hate the "I'm going to do something scummy so I can jump on the first person who calls me on it to "encourage conversatin"" gambit. I've seen town people do it too often lately to really consider it a scumtell anymore, so I'm notgoing to vote you for it, but it never accomplishes anything and just makes day 1 muddy.

[Yosarian2]

Also,

FOS:Seraphim

for falling into BM's trap.

Seriously, he voted for a legitimate reason, and then backtracked just to stop from getting FOS'd by BM?

[Yosarian2]

Also,

FOS:Seraphim

for falling into BM's trap.

Seriously, he voted for a legitimate reason, and then backtracked just to stop from getting FOS'd by BM?

The reason was not legitimate. If you think it was, i suggest you read the first 2 pages again. You're better than this.

FoS: Yos

BM

Looked like he was voting Hoopla because of Hoopla's vote on George Carlin; specifically, because he thought Hoopla was trying to stop George Carlin from talking about the no-lynch thing. Is that why Hoopla was voting? Eh, probably not, although he didn't give any details. But that's irrelevent; Seraphim made a non-random vote for an actual reason, then backed down after a tiny amount of pressure, basically just one FOS from you.

[Yosarian2]

Large post but a few issues Ecto:

1. You claim that content has been ignored. Yet, you do not deign to state what this content is. If you choose to do so, it might give your comments some credibility, and heaven forbid, give me the chance to respond!

Umm...yeah, he did...

What his point is as I read it, is that Hoopla made a move that revealed no alignment information.
That point is correct.

[Yosarian2]

But as you just admitted yourself, the reason was not legitimate, because Hoopla did not make any discernible attempt to kill conversation about his move. He merely responded in the way any townie would when confronted with scummy play.

BM

I still need you to explan how George Carlin's play there was scummy, btw.

But to the point, I probably shouldn't have used the word "legitimate" there, since that's irrelevent; just take out the word legitimate and replace it with "non-random", the effect is the same.

[Yosarian2]

Voting No lynch doesn't seem all that controversial to me

FYI: No lynching on day 1 is generally considered a Very Bad Idea (tm), so voting no lynch is usually a good way to get a few people to vote for you.

And thats a good summary, if GC isn't scum, one of the ones voting for him probably is. Though most likely it would be the one who lead teh assault against him, since anyone the town is willing to listen to could prove to be bad for the Mafia if he rallys them behind that person. Basically Scum already have a reason to want him dead. :p

I don't really think that's valid. For one I don't really thing people were following him as much as reacting the same way on their own. Besides which, I don't think "voting X while some other people are following X" can really be considered an inherent scumtell.

[Yosarian2]

If the 'ploy' fails, then it's just one wasted post.

No; if you are pro-town, then your ploy fails if it just leads to pro-town people fighting with each other all day. Which, in my experence, is usually what happens.

[Yosarian2]

If the 'ploy' fails, then it's just one wasted post.

No; if you are pro-town, then your ploy fails if it just leads to pro-town people fighting with each other all day. Which, in my experence, is usually what happens.

So, at this stage you believe it's very possible everyone involved in this debate is pro-town, under the premise mafia wouldn't bother getting involved?

Eh, I don't think any ofit is indicitive of alignment. I've seen the pattern many times, and I don't think scum are any more or less likely to vote no-lynch, or to vote someone for voting no lynch, or to vote someone for voting someone for voting no-lynch. Any step of that, some town people will do it and think they're doing the right thing.

[Yosarian2]

As such, scum are less likely to do something that is often seen as scummy, and will put them under scrutiny early on (such as vote No Lynch) and are more likely to do something seen as protown, that might stand in their favour later on (such as promoting good practices, like NOT No-lynching day 1).

Ok...but, by the same token, town are also likely to want to "promote good practices". So I tend to consider it a null-tell, all around.

You are probably right that. if Hooper knew it would attract him negitive attention, it would probably be a small town tell (unless he also knew we would see it as one..lol). I still hate the reflexive vote he made on GC, though, especally since GC's reasons were logical, at least in a first-iteneration kind of way. It's not especally strong, but I don't expect strong arguments that early.

[Yosarian2]

While I agreed that it might be a small pro-town tell, I'm confused as to why BM seems to be trying so hard to convince us that Hoopla is a 100% confirmed innocent...

[Yosarian2]

My comment to CKD was referring to the way in which you and Yosarian are pretty indistinguishable atm. It's very disconcerting when 2 of the most respected players in the game aren't meeting those expectations, and instead, seem to want to buddy up as much as possible.

:eyebrow:

How am I "not meeting expectations"? Just because I don't agree with you on everything?

And how are we "buddying up"? Just because we do agree on some things?

[Yosarian2]

My comment to CKD was referring to the way in which you and Yosarian are pretty indistinguishable atm. It's very disconcerting when 2 of the most respected players in the game aren't meeting those expectations, and instead, seem to want to buddy up as much as possible.

:eyebrow:

How am I "not meeting expectations"? Just because I don't agree with you on everything?

And how are we "buddying up"? Just because we do agree on some things?

From where i'm sat, you've kind of rolled into 1 player. It's got to the stage where i cant tell you apart without checking the username every 5 minutes...
I cant even say who's to blame overall, although on this page, it seems to be him blindly tagging onto you.

BM

(shrug) I don't generally consider someone agreeing with me to be a scumtell...

[Yosarian2]

Ya know what. To hell with it!

Unvote, Vote: Sensfan

BM

...why? I mean, I understand the point you were trying to make about how you think a random vote is no more useful information wise then a no-lynch vote, you may or may not be correct, but I don't understand how that leads you to deciding to vote for Sensfan here. Now, if you wanted to vote Sensfan because he still hasn't read the whole thread, that I would understand...

On another note, I like OGML's vote for Sir T, and am interested to see how Sir T responds.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, hurry up and put your money where your mouth is before you start looking scummy.

Put my "money where my mouth is"? You talking about Sir T? Because if I wanted my vote on him right now, then that's where it would be.

[Yosarian2]

It doesn't have to be Sir T if he doesn't think Sir T warrants a vote, but I get a bad feeling when someone sits back and doesn't vote at all.

Just because I'm not voting anyone right now, it hardly means I'm "sitting back".

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, as I said before, I don't really think that any side of this debate is especally scummy, so I'm going to start pressuring lurkers.

Lurker List:

Killa seven: Only two posts, no content at all.

hey guys.

and

i need a read

Natirasha: Has only posted once, and that was a self vote. Apparently had some kind of real life problem, but his sig now claims that he is "slowly getting access back". We need to hear from him soon.

Millitant: Three posts, no content. His last post said that:

Sorry about the recent inactivity on my part, a relative of mine fell ill, I have otherwise been preoccupied with visiting her. I will re read tomorrow and offer my opinions and thoughts then.

I certanly understand real life stuff getting in the way, but you made this post back on the 10th, promising you'd re-read "tommorow". Have you had a chance to do that yet?

Puta Puta: Has been more active the last few days. I'm curious to hear if he has any reasoning for why he said "let's all vote for Sensfan", but then didn't vote for sensfan himself.

ZTR: Lurker. Hasn't posted since November 8th.

xyzzy: Lurker. Posted once to apologize for not confirming, way back on november 8th. Has not posted since.

Panda Stomper 85: Has not posted at all this game.

George Carlin: Even though he started all this debate, he hasn't posted since November 7th.

Tubby216: Has not posted at all this game.

Mod, could you please prod ZTR, xyzzy, Panda Stomper 85, George Carlin, and Tubby216?

Out of the lurkers, some might have just forgotten about the game; the ones that look scummiest are Killa Seven (who clearly hasn't forgotten about the game, but hasn't said anything yet) and xyzzy (who I expect more then this from from).

vote:Killa Seven

[Yosarian2]

i am supremely disturbed by yos' lurkerhunt

I'm disturbed more people aren't paying attention to who is lurking and who isn't. I'm tried of always having to be the only guy who even bothers to figure out who's been lurking, and then inevitably being attacked for it, even though it's clearly in the best interests of the town.

In fact, now that I think of it, didn't YOU say:

Also, lurking will not be tolerated for much longer.

So why are you trying to protect the lurkers now?

[Yosarian2]

@ yos
i have posted i have been reading i have nothing of substance to post, untill something pops up that i need to adress i prefer to stay out of the way

You know who wants to "stay out of the way"? Scum do.

If you're town, then comment on stuff. The game has been 10 pages. You must agree or disagree with SOMETHING someone said, or you must have SOME kind of idea about certain people's alignment.

nope still don't,,, there is nothing of substance to be had anywhere,,

Hey, if you really think there's "nothing of substance" in the game, then clearly the right thing to do is to refuse to post or vote or do anything until something with "substance" appears. Hey, how about we all do that?

so yah lynch me if you want its ok by me

Ok.

Vote:Tubby

[/quote]
although i would sugest looking elsewhere[/quote]

Sure. Where? If you think we should lynch someone who's not you, then who would you suggest? Who do you find suspicious?

Yos, are you sarcasm-intolerant ro something? my last post "let's all vote SensFan" was OBVIOUSLY a joke, sheesh...OH HAI THAR ECTO, u in my other game,

Well, it wasn't obveous to me. Ok, if you don't think Sensfan is a good lynch, then why is it he's not a good lynch?

The thing is, when I thought your SensFan comment was serious, at least that was one real piece of content from you. If that didn't mean anything, then you've basically done nothing so far this game. Who do you think is scummy?

[Yosarian2]

A vote is a tool, and, as town, there is no reason not to use it to the greatest extent possible - even if you are not certain someone is scum, you can use it for pressure, you can vote to see how people respond. A vote is too important

not

to be used.

But there are times when the best way to use a vote is to not cast it right away, when the implied threat of a possible vote is more likely to get useful reactions then an actual vote would.

Speaking of which, I still do want to hear from Sir T, and see what he thinks about the wagon on him (even if that wagon's gone away now).

@Yos: Lurkerhunt? I know it's your style, but egh. I can't get enthusiastic about lurker hunts till at least day 2.

When day 1 can last as long as a month, letting someone get away with lurking the whole time without even noting it seems like a bad idea. It's more effective to stay on top of it and keep people active the whole time, instead of waiting until day 2 and then expecting them to catch all the way up or be replaced.

Letting people lurk for all of day 1,leting them get by without commenting on any day one wagons at all, just seems bad for the town.

[Yosarian2]

BM: Lol...yeah, I can see how that would happen; took me a couple of days to write my lurker list up as well, I actually started it on Friday.

[Yosarian2]

(As a sidenote - Sensfan, I simply don't understand how that is even possible. I could see the transition period from random voting to real game being fruitful... but I don't see how you could catch scum in the random voting stage. It's too... well, random.)

I've caught scum in the part of the game some people call the "random voting stage". Scum tend to think they can say whever they want then, and that no one is really paying attention, and sometimes they give themslelves away through carelessness there.

Then, there's the way BM seems to invoke a boogeyman when arguing with sobeahero. I really *hate* the way he says "But what if I'm a power role?" It's incredibly heavy handed, and frankly, just scummy.

That did bug me too, yeah; I just decided I didn't want to bring attention to it, heh.

On lurker hunts, in general: I feel they're kinda a waste of time. A lot of lurkers will drop off the face of the earth entirely. Others will start contributing. Some will be legitimately trying to slip under the radar - those are the ones to watch for (

FoS Der Hammer

) but any wide scale lurker hunt is a distraction from focusing on the meat of the game - that is, the content, timing, tone etc. of players' posts.

Eh...in my experence, a large fraction of lurkers are people who are following the game, but aren't saying anything for whatever reason. (Nervous, confused, can't think of anything to say, or want to fly under the radar). If you call them by name, though, if you take note of their lurking, they'll often come back and respond. (Look how many of the people on my lurker list responded within a few days). If you can get them to do that, before they drift away from the game entirely, it seems like it helps, you can at least get some reactions and stuff. Plus, I've found scum before based on how people respond when they're called out for lurking.

But it's Sir T I want to lynch. Well, want to wagon, anyway. The more I read his posts, the scummier he seems.

Yeah, I don't get a good vibe from him either. I was hoping to get a response from him on OGML's vote for him before I did anything else, but the longer he waits on that, the more likely I am to just vote him.

BM: Keep posting, please. The problem isn't that you're posting too much, it's that a lot of other people aren't posting enough.

[Yosarian2]

Consider me V/LA from this game until i get prodded.

BM: If you do that, then whatever Shanba thinks, I'll vote you for lurking, just so you know.

[Yosarian2]

Also, Shanba, while I'm not going to let BM get away with lurking, I also am wondering why you were pushing him in that direction. I don't buy the whole "BM posting means we get less info about everyone else" bit; if anything, I think BM's activity and agressivness has pushed everyone else to be more active and to post more then they would in a "normal" mafiascum game.

[Yosarian2]

In my experience, it's much more difficult to contribute to a game which is dominated by one player or one argument. You know those situations where two players are going at it hammer and tongs, posting ever longer lists of refutations and accusations at each other? Those make it very difficult for other players, as there's a tendency to sit back and watch the show.

That's true, but that's not what's happened here. What has happened was BM attacking and commenting on lots of things by lots of different people, and lots of people responding to his comments,and people responding to the comments made by those people.

Similarly, BM's posting dominating the thread makes it hard for other players to rise to the forefront. I believe his discussions about Hoopla, for example, have reduced the amount of information we would have received should Hoople have had to present the information his/herself.

Well, we may have gotten a little less information on Hoopla himself, but BM's attacks on people over the issue directly caused many people to either agree or disagree with him about those specific people, and that's exactally the kind of reactions that will be useful in the future.

Furthermore, it hurts the game going forwards, too - the larger the weight of information, the harder it is for players to catch up, to replace in or to reread the thread.

Well, you're right, more information in the thread makes it harder for people to catch up, but it also makes it easier to catch scum. As for the problem with catchign up and re-reading, I think the key to that is to keep everyone active as much as possible so they don't have a chance to forget what's going on.

And besides, when there's all this extraneous information about one player, other stuff about other players may get lost in the mass of BM's posts.

(shrug) I guess I just don't see this as being an issue.

Again, I don't think all the BM posts just give us information about BM; they, and especally people's reacitons to them, give us information about everyone else.

You say that people are contributing more than normal. Look at your list of lurkers above. That seems larger than normal. Other players are not contributing much - I fall into that category, as sobeahero pointed out below, as does Der Hammer.

Eh...I think that's about a normal amount of lurkers for a large game, at least in the fairly tight way I define lurkers.

I wasn't saying that BM posting a lot makes people who would have been lurkers active, but I think it does make people who would already have been active more active and give them more things to respond to. There's like half a dozen different useful threads of discussion going on here between everyone in the game, and many of them were started by BM.

[Yosarian2]

Consider me V/LA from this game until i get prodded.

BM: If you do that, then whatever Shanba thinks, I'll vote you for lurking, just so you know.

Ironic really. Maybe i forgot about the game?

Basically, any time anyone says "I am going to lurk now" and then actually does it and stops posting, I think it's vote-worthy. And if you say "I'm going to lurk now" and then do, it's pretty clearly not "forgetting about the game". it's lurking stratigically for whatever reason, and that's just not something the town can allow.

Sorry, just the incessant bickering about non-game related stuff is grating on me. You guys sort it out amongst yourselves.

:eyebrow: What "non-game related stuff"?

BM[/quote]

[Yosarian2]

Hey, Volkan. Welcome to the game.

I do have a question for everybody who is on the Tubby wagon, however: Are you prepared to take it to lynch if he doesn't post --

Yes.

I wouldn't be happy about lynching him based just on what he's posted so far, but yes, I would be willing to do it. Pressure wagons don't work unless there is a real threat, an actual risk that if they player dosn't give in to the pressure and start acting in a more pro-town way, that he might be lynched.

Besides, based on his posting right now, I consider Tubby to be somewhat less likely then random to be town, and if he is town much less likely then random to be helpful town. Which adds up to "not a bad day 1 lynch", at least unless he starts posting some content that might change my mind about that, or unless a better wagon comes along.

[Yosarian2]

Hey, welcome to the game.

[Yosarian2]

Is there any reason in particular why you think Tubby scummier-than-average, rather than just arsehole town?

I guess I would just say that he hasn't given me any reason to think he's pro-town, he hasn't really done any useful or helpful pro-town actions yet (of course, he's not alone there...). I also consider refusing to comment on anything scummy (in the narrow sense, at least; something scum would like to do if they thought they could get away with it while not being something town should do.)

Obveously, my read on him right now is based on very little information, and is certanly subject to change if he starts actually playing the game. But, if someone has only said a few things all game, and one of them is somewat scummy, I consider that enough reason for a vote.

[Yosarian2]

Puta Puta is obviously the best lynch today.

BM

ORLY??!

I'm not opposed to a Puta Puta lynch. Frankly, I can't imagine why anyone would be opposed to one at the moment.

[Yosarian2]

...no, because you refuse to comment on anything game-related.

Seriously, have you and Puta-Puta decided to make a wager on which one of you can get lynched first?

[Yosarian2]

You know, this kind of cryptic stuff really just makes me want to lynch you more. Seriously, I was like half an inch away from switching to Puta Puta before you started this.

Do you have some kind of magiacal role restriction that forbids you from being at all useful? Whatever it is you think you want to "reveal prior to your lynch", there's absolutly nothing stopping you from, like, playing the game, trying to find scum, contributing to the discussion and stuff, before that point.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Post 225 The problem I have with this post is that Yos mentions his like for OGML vote on Sir T and see where it goes. When pressured more about his lack of vote he lurker hunts.

As I later mentioned, I had actually started to make the list of lurkers on Friday, before OGML's post. The lurker list was the correct move, the move that needed to be done for the good of the town at the time and the move that was most likely to find scum at the time; it had nothing to do with OGML's post.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote:Tubby

Thank you, some actual analysis.

vote:Puta Puta

[Yosarian2]

My view is that anyone who is self-voting must fall into one of three categories:
(1) Scum

Ok... just curious, why would scum want to self vote again?

Generally, because they think it'll get people to unvote them out of sympathy or somthing.

Bah. I'm torn on Puta Puta. Game theory suggests we shouldn't lynch him today, but I really, really hate to unvote him while he's still not saying anything. Puta, if you had to guess who the scum was right now, if you absolutly had to pick someone to vote for as if your life depended on it (hint: it might), who would you vote for?

[Yosarian2]

unvote

[Yosarian2]

Sir T: I'm still not getting how you seem to be saying that there's some kind of option where you can just choose to act town, and you just decided not to take that option this game. Why would anyone do that?

[Yosarian2]

vote:Tubby

Smells like frustrated scum to me.

[Yosarian2]

Yos,, nevermind i read through and you have been on me the entire game..i found in your previous posts i assume your revoting me stems from the case you made earlier right??

No, not at all.

I really hate you OGML OMGUS vote here. This post is especally scummy:

because you are doing more flip flops than a fish out of water

flip flops+opertunistic wagon jumping+ irrational thought= scum

you sir are scum,, enjoy the gallows

Flip flops? OGML has suspected you and Sir T for a very long time now. How is he "flip flop"ing? And how is "flip flopping" supposed to be scummy anyway?

I don't see anything oppurtunistic about his votes. Also, the whole concept of an "oppurtunistic vote" on day 1 is pretty much bogus anyway; good guys are supposed to join large, strong bandwagons in order to put pressure on people and move to a concensuss.

And there was nothing irrational about his thought, either; your "I have something magical to say right before I get lynched" thing was pretty scummy, and there's nothing irrational about him calling you out on it.


Also, I think this is incredibly scummy:

what if i have a power role what then?? does that make you a scum hunter or a role fisher??

Hinting you have a power role in order to try to scare OGML into unvoting you...ugh.

Especally since you are now saying:

and I will not claim, i will go to the gallows nice and quiet and with out a claim

even though earlier, you were saying

no but i assure you yos all will be revealed soon

and combined with your "I-might-be-a-power-role" hint, is just so scummy. There are times when refusign to claim is a good idea, but hinting you have a power role but aren't going to claim it to spite the town is just such a scum tactic.

And, finally, this:

so if i shut up and say nothing i get wagoned, then i speak up try to help ,, present a case and i still get voted ,, i love this ,,,this game is awesome

is what I was talking about when I said you sound like frustrated scum.

[Yosarian2]

Interesting point, BM, but I think you're reading too much into it; especally since the mod made clear it would have been modkilled no matter if it was real or fake. I'd make the same kind of post as mod as Fonz's origional post, either way, so no one else would do the same thing and then be surprised if they got modkilled.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote Vote: Yos.
I have read some of Natirasha's other games. Terse and angry seems pretty normal.

Huh? I didn't say anything about Natirasha's other games. Do you have me confused with someone else, or what?

[Yosarian2]

How can I distract from the issue when I have no idea why Shanba is voting me?

[Yosarian2]

Firstly is the fact that I strongly disagree (in parts) with his analysis of tubby's play. Particularly, I disagree that this reaction:

so if i shut up and say nothing i get wagoned, then i speak up try to help ,, present a case and i still get voted ,, i love this ,,,this game is awesome

sounds like frustrated scum: it just sounds frustrated to me. I don't really get what's scummy about it.

Well, I have a hard time explaining in any more detail then that; sort of a partly gut thing of my own, I guess. I guess it seems scummy to me because the vibe I get is that he seems almost entierly focused on not getting lynched; it makes me think that when he was making cases, he was perhaps only doing so to try to get the pressure off of him and is frustrated it didn't work.

Then there's the fact that his vote feels off to me, timing wise. Can't really place it. I think it just looks a touch opportunistic: Yos' vote was on the crest (or just before) of the wagon, if you will.

This is like the 4th time in as many games I've been called opportunistic, and I have yet to have anyone explain to me even exactally what that means or how it is supposed to be a scumtell. It's like people think there's something inherently wrong with joining wagons, or something.

And then there's the fact that his play towards BM and his play towards tubby seem somewhat inconsistent: BM's power role hint-threat, despite coming from a vastly more experienced player who knows the ins and outs, who should be better than that, whereas tubby's comes from a newbie who seems almost incoherent at times...

Eh...nothing BM's done seems to be too far outside his normal pro-town meta for me to get too worried about it yet.

And then there's just the fact that I think tubby's attempts to scumhunt have, at least, looked fairly town which Yos just seems to ignore.

Well, I actually did unvote Tubby after his first real scumhunting-appearing-post. That being said, his attacks on Oh God My Life just seem really scummy to me, as I explained. Do you really think that make him "look fairly town" to you?

[Yosarian2]

Sounds good enough for me.

Vote: Der Hammer

(oh yeah, I'm back, lol. I'm catching up now but as I read the post above me, claiming miller and voting for oneself is bad play)

Clarify what you mean here. Do you think he's scum?

[Yosarian2]

Sounds good enough for me.

Vote: Der Hammer

(oh yeah, I'm back, lol. I'm catching up now but as I read the post above me, claiming miller and voting for oneself is bad play)

Clarify what you mean here. Do you think he's scum?

from those one/two posts? Hell yes.

Ok. Could you explain why you think a scum would be especally likely to claim miller, self vote, and then ask the town to lynch him?

[Yosarian2]

Something like this.

If there was a guilty cop result on someone, you would lynch them even if they claim miller.

If someone claims miller early, then you know that any cop inspect on them

will

be guilty. That means that there is no difference in information about the miller's alignment whether or not the cop uses an inspection. (The cop knows, too, and will never actually inspect the miller). So a claimed miller is logically equivalent to an inspected miller.

Since you would lynch an inspected miller, and a claimed miller is logically equivalent to an inspected miller, you should lynch a claimed miller.

I will say that I don't necessarally disagree with this logic. I'm usually in favor of lynching claimed millers, and Der Hammer is both a claimed miller, a self-voter, and he lurked for much of the game. He's basically the ultimate day 1 safe lynch.

Only problem is, I don't really think he's scum. Saying "I'm a miller, I should therefore die, vote:self" clear out of the blue like that would be a pretty crazy gambit for a scum to pull out of the air, especally since all he had on him at the time were a few lurker votes. I mean, I can't think of many mafia player who would ever even think of trying a bizzare gambit like that, let alone actually do it.

I still need Seraphim to explain why he thinks der hammer is scum, because I'm not buying his explination at the moment.

[Yosarian2]

There is no giving 'townie credit' here. Here and now we make our decision as town. What we won't have is leaving this up in the air, and here is why:

1: If we don't believe him, he is scum, we lynch him here today after we are content with the discussion.

2: If we believe him, we make a pact as town here and now not to lynch him...at all. That pact forces scum to deal with him. They cant afford to go into endgame with what we are essentially deciding is a confirmed townie. It also presents the possibility of blocking a NK somewhere along the way, or, our boy gets into endgame. Also, making the pact means we wont have to worry about our power roles going crosspurposes, Doc/Vig being a simple example (no, not saying we have them). We cant waver on this. Once the decision is made, we stand solid on it.

Um...that's...insane, Ecto.

Mafia is not a binary game; it's not a matter of "either we 100% totally and completly believe him, or we 100% totally and completly disbelieve him". There's always a chance someone is lying. At the moment, I don't really think der hammer is all that likely to be lying; I'd probably put the odds of him lying low enough so I think he's a worse then a random lynch at this point. That being said, I intend to continue to watch him, and if other evidence makes me more suspicious of him later, I reserve the right to change my mind. That's, you know, how pro-town people should always approach everything, IMHO. Declaring someone totally cleared when there's no actual reason to think they are is a good way for towns to lose.

Also, but what if we need to pressure him again later to start posting? Pressuring him to be more active worked today, but it wouldn't have if everyone had "made a pact to never ever lynch him no matter what" or whatever.

[Yosarian2]

Also, Der Hammer, why are you randomally cult speculating based on no evidence? I would normally consider that a scumtell, but oddly, in this case, the cult speculation only seems to hurt him, so I donno, it's just weird.

[Yosarian2]

Der Hammer is active lurking. He appears to be saying just enough to avoid proddage, yet it has little substance. Conclusion: Probably the best lynch at the moment, with tubby's claim and Puta being replaced.

Um...there's a lot of things wrong with Der Hammer's play, but, how is what he saing have "little substance"? He's posted about once a day since last Friday or so, and in that time, he has claimed, voted himself and pressed for his own lynch, unvoted himself, attacked someoen else, analyzed part of the game, speculated on cults.

If you want to say his play is bad, or anti-town, or whatever, I'd be fine with that. But active lurker? Huh? He's posted more content in the past 4-5 days then you have all month.

[Yosarian2]

You chopped my post Yosarian. The "DH is town" statement is an If Then Else statement, not binary at all. If we cant reach a consensus to never lynch him, thus forcing scum to deal with him, then we vote him here and now, today and get him out of here because what that says to me is that people still suspect he is scum, and if you suspect someone is scum, then you lynch them, period.

Yeah...that still dosn't make any sense to me. Unless someone is actually cleared one way or another, everyone is under some level of suspicion, right?

I don't think he's likely to be scum, at the moment, just because I don't think it's likely he would have done his recent actions as scum, but that's not the same as "he should have a free pass for the rest of the game and no one should be allowed to ever suspect him of anything ever from now on"; I've been wrong before, and I've changed my mind before, and I reserve the right to do so again if new evidence comes up.

I mean; what would you do if you took your "I'm never ever going to lynch Der Hammer no matter what!" vow but then tommorow a tracker claims says "Hey, I just watched Der Hammer target the guy that got nightkilled". Do you still vow to never lynch him?

I mean, there's no one in the game right now who I would vow to "never lynch no matter what"; you saying "we should lynch him right now unless we are all absolutly 100% positive we would never ever lynch him no matter what" seems like a pretty absurdly high bar.

[Yosarian2]

you saying "we should lynch him right now unless we are all absolutly 100% positive we would never ever lynch him no matter what" seems like a pretty absurdly high bar.

Which is why I said I see why there is a policy lynch to claimed millers. And of course if he is proven scum by a tracker then you would lynch him.
I don't think we have that many gamblers in this crowd anyhow.

Ok.

But...why?

If he claims miller, that's a strike against him, sure, since at the very best that means he's one step less useful to the town then a vanillia townie. But...why not just have the cop not investigate him, and do our best to figure out, from his posts, if he's scum or town? I mean, it's not like we can investigate everyone anyway.

If you really think there's a high chance that his posts today came from a scum, then you should lynch him based on that, and I'd be interested to hear your logic for that. But lynching him because he claimed miller, even if you think he's probably town, just seems like a bad idea.

[Yosarian2]

It's the doubt isn't it? If I'm going to lynch someone because I'm afraid they are scum, I'd prefer to do it sooner than later.

Ok. So why are you "afraid he is scum"?

[Yosarian2]

Claiming miller helps scum, so the balance of WIFOM demands that claiming miller be inherently scummy.

How does claiming miller help scum?

Logically, if you actually are a miller, the not claiming might help scum, since if you claim you at least don't waste a cop investigation.

[Yosarian2]

Right.

If he's lying scum, there are advantages to claiming miller day 1 out of the blue(although they're probably smaller then the cost, which is "claimed millers usually get lynched").

Also, if he's telling the truth and is town, there are advantages to the town of him claiming miller now before a cop investigates him (although, again, they may or may not be bigger then the cost).

If any action makes sense coming from either scum or from town, then I can't agree that it's "inherently scummy". In this case, in the circumstances he made the claim and the way he made the claim, I think it actually makes a little more sense coming from a pro-town miller then it would coming from a lying scum.

[Yosarian2]

Ecto:
1- I find that abstract theory discussion to be harmful to the town, if not to the mafia game in general. Why argue if lynching millers in general is a good or bad idea, when we have our own personal miller, with his personal characteristics (not posting, then volunteering to die, then posting content when asked).

In short - Non specific theory discussion - cop out for scum. Specific discussion about players - good.

Well, that's kind of a non-specific mafia-theory discussion point of your own, isn't it Except you're just discussing, using mafia theory, about if it's more useful to discuss theory in a mafia game or not.

I certanly think it's worthwhile discussing mafia theory in a game, especally when it's directly related to a question of a choice the town has to make right now. Like, "should the town always lynch claimed millers, or should they only do so sometimes"; that's pretty clearly key to the game right now.

Page 4:
Yos keeps up with no-relevance, on the wall posts (75,76). He backs down (78) when Hoopla asks him on 77 if his posts means he thinks people on the initial wagons are townies. WIFOM-fest on post 85. I don't like this "play with your cards close to your chest" style on day 1.

"No relevence"? 75 was me shooting down Sobeahero's garbage argument that "either Gc is scum or one of the people voting him is". How is that "not relevent"? Everyone else was trying to lynch someone based on the stupid "X voted no lynch" "Y voted X for voting no lynch" "Z voted Y for voting X for no lynch" chain, and I think that's foolish and pointless. How the heck is that "not relevent" to the game?

And I did not "back down" in 78, I clarified, explaining that I didn't think that whole thing meant anything at all.

And why are you attacking me for a "WIFOM-fest", exactally, while not attacking BM for the post I responded to? I was just shooting down BM's WIFOM logic, which was:

As such, scum are less likely to do something that is often seen as scummy, and will put them under scrutiny early on (such as vote No Lynch) and are more likely to do something seen as protown, that might stand in their favour later on (such as promoting good practices, like NOT No-lynching day 1).

My post was just explaining that that was bad logic, since town are also obviously going to be interested in "promoting good practices". So why would you attack my post as "WIFOM" while ignoring BM's? (Whole thing is foolish anyway; there's nothing scummy with properly used logic even if it has a WIFOM component to it)

I think Yos and Farside would be good alternative lynches, though, because they had posted so much by then, without actually giving out any content. I'd be willing to lynch them.

FoS: Yos and Farside

No content??? Excuse me??

[Yosarian2]

So is this how games were like in the old day? Long tl;dr posts over stuff that isn't even important(I think, as I said, I tl;dred).

Well, not to this extent. This game is getting a little silly, with how long day 1 is taking.

I want to hear the rest of Claus's thoughts, but once he's caught up, I'd be willing to end the day. At this point, I'd be fine with lynching either Sir T or tubby.

[Yosarian2]

@xyl

ok what is the case on TI?? i must have missed it,

as far as der hammer,, i would support that lynch i know he is a claimed miller but i do not understand why its in the best interest of the town to keep him around, cause we will show up as scum if investigated, so that would be a wasted investigation, but if we lkynch him that would also be a wasted lynch,and the scum get a kill , so by lynching der hammer it would be like if we voted not lynch at this point right?,, so thats the quandry as i understand it is that correct??

Well, no.

If he is lying scum, then we need to lynch him at some point or we lose. If he is a pro-town miller, then we obv don't want to lynch him at all.

The fact that he can't be cop investigated (no matter if he's telling the truth or lying, he should come up guilty) makes him slightly less useful to the town, but not by that much; it's not like we can investigate everyone.

So basically we should be lynching him if we think he's scum, and not if we think he's town; you know, just like anyone else.

[Yosarian2]

First of all,. I hope everything gets better for you with school, Sir T.

Also, if I am going to be lynched, I want Shanba and YoS to put their reasons for suspecting me on the record right now.

Well...you've consistantly been a secondary suspect of mine for most of the day. A lot of it in the early day comes down to some vaugly scummy vibes.

You later said something about how you were "trying to look delibratly ambiguas" about if you were town or scum to avoid being nightkilled, and that comment really struck me the wrong way. I responded to it, and you never responded back; it just seemed like a really easy excuse to say "well, if I look scummy, it's because I was trying to".

There was a third reason, which was that it seemed to me like whenever a bandwagon on your started to form you kind of lurked until it went away, but now that you've asked to be replaced I tend to think your lurking probably was honestly due to lack of time, so I'm disreguarding that as a scum tell.

You've never really been my main suspect today, sir T, but I've always been somewhat suspicious of you. I don't have that many concrete reasons to suspect you, honestly, but then again I don't have much data to work from since you haven't posted all that much, and I naturally tend to be more suspicious of someone who posts 10 times and 1 of their posts seems off then of someone who posts 40 times and 4 of their posts seems off. I still think Tubby is more likely to be scum then you, but you would be my second choice for a lynch.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) If we get to deadline and it's needed in order to prevent a no-lynch, I'd vote Seraphim. I thought he was a little scummy early in the game, I wasn't especally impressed by his reasons for voting Der Hammer either, and he's only posted 4 times in the entire month of december.

[Yosarian2]

On a side-note are you still seeking replacement or sticking it out now?

Had I not asked to be replaced out already, I wouldn't want to right now; but I understand many of you may have unvoted me/changed your opinion on me due to me asking to replace out, and it would be in bad taste to stay, so I am still being replaced out when The Fonz manages to find replacements, and he has to find replacements for 3 players, so it is very unlikely I would have got replaced out on D1 even if I hadn't been posting so much. Obviously, BM and Xyzzy who aren't posting should get replaced out first.

Sir T: If you can keep playing, there's no reason for you to replace out just because you said you were going to. Especally if you're going to continue to be this active.

[Yosarian2]

Obviously everyone is going to be busy between today and tomorrow because of new years, but I will make a final reflection post on the day in case I am lynched. This should come in the next few days.

Still waiting for this, der hammer.

At this point, I still don't really think much of the case against him, but the way he's just stopped talking lately does not made me especally inclined to defend him.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...4 days left, Elmo? Ok, we've got to get moving.

I said earlier that I prefered the Seraphim case to the Der Hammer case, if that was our only two options, but I hate to let Der Hammer get away with lurking like this

Der Hammer, are we going to hear from you before deadline?

[Yosarian2]

Bleh, Sir T still needs to die, but I´ve got to start being realistic with how this day is going to end.

unvote

OGML

I am not going to participate in this game any longer as long as OGML continues to ignore my response to his case and the rest of you don't care anything about it. Have a good day.

Um...you're almost certanly not going to be lynched today, Sir T. Why don't you comment on the two wagons that might actually happen instead of worring about OGML?

[Yosarian2]

Um...you're almost certanly not going to be lynched today, Sir T. Why don't you comment on the two wagons that might actually happen instead of worring about OGML?

I am not going to participate in this game any longer as long as OGML continues to ignore my response to his case and the rest of you don't care anything about it. Have a good day.

But...there's no reason for you to do that, Sir T. The reason no one is too worried about OGML's case on you right now is because it dosn't really have anything to do with the only issue pro-town people should be worried about now, which is "who do we lynch today before deadline?".

If you don't replace out, since you just said you want to keep playing, then we'll talk about it tommorow. Right now we don't have time to waste on side issues like that.

[Yosarian2]

It's about having some basic sense of decency to respond to someone who is trying to respond to your accusations of him being scum. If the town doesn't care about OGML not having it, then I don't care about what happens in this game anymore. Do whatever you like.

I know how annoying it is when someone dosn't respond to something you say, especally if it's a defense you're making, but it's also a normal part of the game. If you think it makes him scummy and want to vote him for it (tommorow, when there is time) and make a case on him because of it, feel free. Until you do, you shouldn't really expect the rest of the town to get all excited it about it.

Do you really think OGML is going to get lynched today? If not, then don't expect the rest of the town to go after him for it today. It's a game, sir T, and we're just trying to win.

[Yosarian2]

[
i don't know. i kinda say we keep him at least for one more day.

I'm confused by this. It sounds like you're saying you don't want to lynch him today, you'd rather lynch him tommorow, and that dosn't really make any sense for a claimed miller. If you think he's town, you shouldn't want him lynched tommorow; and if you think he's scum, you should want him dead today, right?

[Yosarian2]

[
i don't know. i kinda say we keep him at least for one more day.

I'm confused by this. It sounds like you're saying you don't want to lynch him today, you'd rather lynch him tommorow, and that dosn't really make any sense for a claimed miller. If you think he's town, you shouldn't want him lynched tommorow; and if you think he's scum, you should want him dead today, right?

Wasn't that my earlier point?

Lol. That occured to me while I was saying that, but I'm not saying der hammer gets a "get out of lynch free" pass for the rest of the game. What I am saying is that I'm getting a vibe of scum trying to set up future easy lynches from magi's post.

[Yosarian2]

Hi all.

Vote Yos

He clearly knows i'm town.

Not the time for a joke vote, dude. And please don't reference an ongoing game like that.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, with the deadline coming up

unvote

Vote:Seraphim

That should be 9 votes, with 12 needed to lynch. Remember, no majority=no lynch.

I agree with Elmo; if Seraphim wants to claim, if he has a claim that might convince people to not lynch him today, this would be a good time for him to give it.

[Yosarian2]

I'll move my vote to Seraphim if it's needed for a lynch, but right now I completely fail to see why Seraphim is a better vote than Der Hammer. Can anyone fill me in?

Personally, I just don't think Der Hammer is that likely to be scum. (shrug)

[Yosarian2]

Hi all.

Vote Yos

He clearly knows i'm town.

What?

It's a reference to an ongoing game, where I just lynched him.

[Yosarian2]

Am I more likely to be scum, then?

Yeah, I think you're more likely to be scum then der hammer is. That's why I'm voting for you instead of for him.

[Yosarian2]

Miller lynch > Townie lynch

Yeah, but not by much, especally after claims. A clamed miller is only slightly less useful then a claimed townie at this point; after all, a guy who looks scummy and gets wagoned to a vanillia townie claim under pressure day 1 probably shouldn't get an early cop investigating anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Miller lynch > Townie lynch

Yeah, but not by much, especally after claims. A clamed miller is only slightly less useful then a claimed townie at this point; after all, a guy who looks scummy and gets wagoned to a vanillia townie claim under pressure day 1 probably shouldn't get an early cop investigating anyway.

this is the part where i get lost. If not now when is the proper time to lynch a claimed miller? cause as i see it now most everyone is content to give him a pass through day one. But my question is this how long does that pass last. I just don't want to waste time agian on the der hammer issue, or agian on day three. I feel its in our best intrest to lynch him now and be done with it.

Re-posting this:

Well, it's in our best interests now to lynch him, if he's scum. It's in our best interest to lynch him if he's more likely to be scum then anyone else, or at this point if he's more likely to be scum then anyone else we might be able to get lynched before deadline.

The fact that he's a claimed miller, though, is I think kind of a red herring. I mean, he's slightly less useful the a claimed townie, and if you want to take that into consideration, fine, but you should be mostly voting for whoever you think is more likely to be scum at this point.

[Yosarian2]

YAY it's back up. I need my injection.

Yeah, I was hurting.

Yos, Miller claim out of the equation, what are your thoughts on Der Hammer? I may have missed it, but your main thrust surrounding DH has been that we shouldn't lynch a claimed miller out of hand, but I dont know where you actually stand on his behavior. Its interesting that you've mentioned him so often, but I dont recall that bit of information. If you've said it before, a quote is fine for a response.

I did say it before; basically, I don't think he's scum. I just don't think it's that likely that Der Hammer, as scum, would come up with a claim like that; pulling a miller claiming out of nowhere, combined with a "so we should probably lynch me" and a self-vote, would be a pretty bizzare gambit for a scum to try to pull off; and nothing in my previous experence with Der Hammer suggests he's especally likely to try to pull of a gambit like that as scum.

[Yosarian2]

(nods) Yeah, it's a good idea to discuss stuff first, then he can claim later if he thinks it's best.

I still suspect Tubby, personally.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2

So you suspect tubby.

What gets me is, all the time, you keep saying that you find Tubby scummy, still after his wagon died, you don't seem to pressure him, or try to convince other people to vote for him, or question him, or anything. If you think tubby is scum, what is your strategy for getting the town rid of this menace?

(shrug) I made my case yesterday, in full. I could pound the table, put pressure on him, and probably could get a bandwagon started on him again now; to be honest, I haven't bothered to do so yet because I tend to think it's mostly pointless at the moment, since we're probably going to end up lynching based on your (I assume guilty) cop result anyway today. Creating a bandwagon now would be basically meaningless, since everyone knows it's worthless and, if he is scum, would just give a chance for his scumbuddies to distance with little to no incresed risk of him actually getting lynched.

I like the idea of everyone putting down, now, who they think is guilty and everything before you claim, but you should realize that when you claimed at the start of the day, you basically ensured that that a normal day wouldn't actually happen.

[Yosarian2]

I like the idea of everyone putting down, now, who they think is guilty and everything before you claim, but you should realize that when you claimed at the start of the day, you basically ensured that that a normal day wouldn't actually happen.

Oh, I agree.

Still, funny that you say you like the idea. Your "Oh, I suspect tubby. Same reasons as yesterday - no other opinions about the game, no sirre." Seems to go straight against it.

How so?

So you suspect tubby, and no one else, and still you haven't bothered thinking who would be possible partners to him?

Well, no, I don't usually try to make connections based on my suspicion of one person this early in the game; that's best done after the person is lynched and comes up scum. Doing it before that point is at best pointless, and at worst a major distraction.

No opinions about the lurkers you love to hunt so much?

(shrug) I'm not really saying much myself today, because we're all waiting for you to finish claiming so we can move on with the game, I think. If you really want my opinion on someone first, let me know and I'll be glad to go back and re-read them.

[Yosarian2]

I'd like to hear what you think of the me/yos interaction today.

I'm a bit tired of Yos staying steadfastly in the wall. It is not early game anymore, and there were enough bandwagons in D1, flips in N1, and interactions for someone to scumhunt more than his current "case" on tubby - specially because he finds the time to respond extensively to my questions with his theories about how scumhunting is not useful at the moment - so it is not like he doesn't have time for the game. I read another recent game where he was town, and he was much more useful than this.

His current behavior looks to me like he believes I have investigated him, and don't want to say anything that might incriminate his partners. What do the rest of the town think?

vote: Yos

Um, no, you clearly haven't investigated me or you wouldn't be voting for me.

This game has been dead since you halfway claimed, Claus. I thought you were going to just take a quick survey of who people thought was scummy, and then you were going to finish claiming. I've been waiting for that for weeks now so we can get back to the damn game. If you've changed your mind and you're not going to claim, then fine, say so, so we can get back to actually scumhunting, before this game stalls out completly.

If you really aren't going to claim today, then I'll go back and re-read, probably end up re-stating my case on Tubby, try to get a wagon going there, especally since nothing else is happening in this game. But it's bizzare for you to kill all momentum in this game and then act like it's somehow my fault.

[Yosarian2]

I don't see how he killed the momentum.

Meh.

To be honest, I'm in too many games now; I didn't really mean to join 3 large games at once here in addition to the ones I was already in, it just sort of happened (and though I'm now dead in one of them at the moment, but another one that's been frozen since before Christmas just started up again so I'm going to have to re-read THAT...argh), and I was planning on waiting for the claim of his result he had promised, and then use that in doing a full re-read of the 40 pages of this game with that fact in mind, rather then actually do a full re-read now and then do it again after the claim. But that was also when I was assuming the claim was going to come in a week or so, once everyone had answered his question.

If he's really not going to claim his result today, I guess I'll buckle down and do a re-read, although I can't promise when I'll have time for it.

Anything specific you want me to look at, Claus?

[Yosarian2]

Elmo

Convinced of Yos' stance, Elmo? Don't you think Yos stance now is quite similar
to the way he played in Dynamite Stick Mafia?

Yos:

I sympathize that you are without time for this game, but why do you choose to say that now, instead of the first time you refused to answer my questions about other players? I never asked you to reread, I was very specific and asked you only: Who do you think are possible partners to tubby, and what do you think about Sensfan, Natirasha, and Skitzer. The three of them are lurkers, so I don't think it would have taken all that much time to re-read them.

Basically, you tried to ridicule my questioning of you at first, but as other people didn't seem to follow you on that, you then tried to play the "oh poor me, sorry people. Claus, what do you want again?". Sorry Yos, not really buying it.

Uh, I never ridiculed your questioning, and that's actually the second time I've asked you if there was something specific you wanted me to look at.

- During D1, he was not very useful, prefering to join theoretical discussions to look towny, but not scumhunting.

How can you possibly say I didn't scumhunt on day 1?

- D2 he held himself to his lurker-suspicion of tubby, even though there were lots of more interesting stuff (even regarding tubby!) around.

Ah, I see; you can say that because you didn't read my post. At least, you must not have, if you think my suspicion on tubby was primarailly because of lurking.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, Natirasha. Any last words?

[Yosarian2]

Oh, ok, didn't notice that.

Vote:Natirasha

[Yosarian2]

Wow. What a strange day.

Well, that is pertinent information that I just did not have.

Actually, I had came to the same conclusion myself, based on the mod's post about how "some people didn't title their PM's properly"; made me think that one of the night choices got sent, but didn't get processed properly, which made me think doc was most likely.

The two cops are making me believe Der Hammer's claim a lot more now.

Either that, or we have a ridiculous number of scum. I think I'd prefer a miller(s).

Agreed. Two cops (especally if there's also a doc, as now seems likely) probably means either millers and godfathers, or cop sanity issues.

[Yosarian2]

Well, it is a little strange for you to be questioning a mod-confirmed-town-dead-cop, Sensan.

[Yosarian2]

Please lynch/vig Yos. I'm pretty sure he is scum. Notice that his promise of re-reading/looking for scum after my reveal D2 is still pending.

What makes you think that?

Anyway,

vote:Magi

[Yosarian2]

Please lynch/vig Yos. I'm pretty sure he is scum. Notice that his promise of re-reading/looking for scum after my reveal D2 is still pending.

What makes you think that?

Anyway,

vote:Magi

Eh, I should probably clarify.

At this point, since the town isn't going to make another decision tommorow, it's probably best for us to just lynch the caught scum and figure stuff out tommorow, rather then talk about who we find suspicious and who we trust today when that'll just make it easier for the scum to figure out who to kill. So, rather then do a whole re-read and analysis now, I think I'll hold my cards close to my chest for a bit.

[Yosarian2]

That's a demerit.

(shrug) Whatever. I'm tired of time-wating "we already know who we're going to lynch but let's BS pointlessly around for another 10 pages" stuff. We've got a scum for today, let's lynch him and move on, and we'll find another one tommorow.

well shit.

Lol.

[Yosarian2]

Nevermind, missed Claus' last post trying to read from my cellphone

unvote

So then, why did you say this

Wait...you're voting me, over the mod-confirmed Cop's Guilty result, because I asked said Cop why they didn't post their result right then?

Yep.

If you didn't know there was a mod-confirmed cop who had given a guilty result?

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, agree that DH is still town despite skitzer being a miller (two cops after all)

Yeah; I'm not going to try to outguess the mod on this one. There might or might not be two millers in this setup, especally when we don't know if both cops were sane. Either way, I think we've got to judge Der Hammer on actions, not on his roleclaim.

Like I said, vascillating on xyl. He's a slippery mofo and I'm still having trouble pinning him down. But I think username is scummy in addition to the xyl connection.

Ok; why is Iamusername scummy, then?

[Yosarian2]

I'm guessing SensFan and tubby are scum on different teams.

Yeah, this whole sensfan/tubby slapfight going on here is really making them both look pretty scummy.

[Yosarian2]

Oh yeah. SensFan and/or tubby.

Yup, that's the plan.

[Yosarian2]

Tubby: SInce Sensfan is totally failing at trying to make a case against you, it would be wise for you to actually make a case against him, especally since you've been voting him for a while now and all you said about it was "I'm good with that".

[Yosarian2]

Lol. Yes, yes it was.

Vote:Sensfan

[Yosarian2]

I want you to say why, exactally, you think he is scum. Or, perhaps, why I should think he's more likely to be scum then you are.

And yes, he hasn't done much in the way of content this game, but neither have you. Is there anything specific in his "one line posts" that make you think he's specifically scummy, or is it just the lack of content?

For that matter, any other content you could give could help. Who else do you find scummy? Do you have any opinions on anything else?

[Yosarian2]

This sense of Tubby vs Sensfan disturbs me and Yosarian's apparent attempt to cement that idea disturbs me more.

Actually, no, I'm trying to get some kind of real content out of both of them so we can make an informed lynch. You might have me confused with Xyl or something.

[Yosarian2]

Seeing as this is the philosophy that most people seem to have, is there any point in me putting more into this game, or will I be lynched anyways?

At this point, one of the biggest reasons you're about to get lynched is because you've put so little into the game. If you want to avoid being lynched, your best bet would be to change that.

[Yosarian2]

This sense of Tubby vs Sensfan disturbs me and Yosarian's apparent attempt to cement that idea disturbs me more.

Actually, no, I'm trying to get some kind of real content out of both of them so we can make an informed lynch. You might have me confused with Xyl or something.

Mmmm maybe. I'm being lazy myself. The following quotes are what I used to arrive at that idea.

Oh yeah. SensFan and/or tubby.

Yup, that's the plan.

Tubby: SInce Sensfan is totally failing at trying to make a case against you, it would be wise for you to actually make a case against him, especally since you've been voting him for a while now and all you said about it was "I'm good with that".

With the first quote: yeah, fair enough. I was pretty convinced Sensfan and Tubby were both really scummy at that point.

With the second quote: I was, as I said, trying to get them to contribute some kind of content. No matter who Tubby had been voting for at that point, if he had voted that person, I would have asked him to explain why.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not sure if this was directed at me or at Xyl:

I wouldn't lynch Sensfan on the stalling and lack of content motifs. Voting to change his behavior, sure. I'll give you that.

I do think stalling and lack of content are good reasons to vote someone, but beyond that, he's been doing this thing where he goes back and fourth on either insisting he has given content, giving excuses for not giving content, and stalling, all without actually saying anything game related; and that really is a scum tell, especally the way he's been doing it.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not sure if this was directed at me or at Xyl:

I wouldn't lynch Sensfan on the stalling and lack of content motifs. Voting to change his behavior, sure. I'll give you that.

I do think stalling and lack of content are good reasons to vote someone, but beyond that, he's been doing this thing where he goes back and fourth on either insisting he has given content, giving excuses for not giving content, and stalling, all without actually saying anything game related; and that really is a scum tell, especally the way he's been doing it.

Hmm. How many games have you played with Sensfan?

Uh, a bunch. I definatly remember him being more useful then this in past games I've played with him.

[Yosarian2]

Or, you know, "Don't hammer the guy that caught up but didn't have time to make large posts within a week."

How about "there's only so many weeks you can promise you'll post, ask for just a little more time, before someone eventually gets fed up and just hammers you"?

[Yosarian2]

Hi Adel.

is anyone familiar with the "unrecruited mafia traitor" role? how do you suppose it works?

you know who all the mafia are in that particular mafia group however they do not know who you are, typically this role's win condition is when the mafia make up 50% of the town not including them.

from this we gather that the mafia can recruit or attept to recruit now wether that inlue of a kill i have no idea,


the only reason i know about this role is i had this role in another game,



@ecto
why???

Well, that's how it normally works, but I notice that he's a different color then either scum group; perhaps either scum group could have recruited him, or something like that?

[Yosarian2]

Ecto: I'm a bit confused; it sounded like in your post, you were saying that you thought we needed to lynch red scum today, that you think Tubby is purple scum, and then you voted tubby. Could you clarify?

[Yosarian2]

At this point in the game, I don't think that Xyl wanted to be recruited and was out to eliminate that possibility.

That requires a lot of assumptions, especally about Xyl's win condition. You seem to be assuming that an uncrecruited Xyl wins with the town; but if that was true, then wouldn't he show up as green on the front list if he died without being recruited? Or am I reading too much into that?

That being said, if he really was not affiliated with either scum group yet, then he couldn't have known who any of the scum were until he was recruited. The other option is probably that there are two traitors, one for each scum group.

I'm also suspicious of Tubby's question on whether we would be in LYLO tomorrow if we lynched him. If the answer was yes, even if he were scum or an SK, he would count towards the total number opposite the other scum group and could plead a case for finding the other scum first before lynching him. Maybe I should have said yes when he asked to see if he tried to strike a bargain...

Quite possible.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind lynching a purple scum today,; odds are, there should only be one purple scum left at most, which would mean we'd at least get rid of a nightkill. Although...I'm not even sure "if there are any purple left, there's only one" is a good assumption; what if purple already recruited their traitor?

I'm really not sure about how this game is be balanced; just the fact that there's 2 dead cops and a dead one-shot doctor could mean anything; it could mean a LOT of scum, if voth cops were sane.

[Yosarian2]

Alright OGML, the mass claim thing. We've got 8 alive and we think we have as many as 3 scum in 2 different scum groups. There also appears to be a vig/sk accounting for the 3rd kill,

unless

we have 3 scum groups of 2. (Mafia traitor role always bugs me, and from Yos' response, I guess I still dont really fully understand the role)

Well, the "mafia traitor" role is pretty vaugely defined, and every time I see it, it's a litttle different. Usually a mafia traitor is already aligned with one mafia group from the start of the game, sometimes they know who they're aligned with, sometimes they don't, sometimes they have kind of a role-cop-ish role and have to find their scumbuddies (although I think that varient is more often called a "mafia spy"). Sometimes they get recruited into a full member that mafia group if the mafia if the mafia group either targets them for a recruitment, or sometimes it happens if the mafia group tries to kill them. But I don't know what's going on this game; it could be that he was some kind of mafia traitor that could have been recruited by either mafia group, but I'm not really sure how that would work or what (if any) his win condition was when he died then.

Anyhow, with todays lynch and those 3, we end up with 4 kills.

Lets look at the numbers and this is my best guess and open to debate.

Red-2
Purple-1
SK-1
Town-4
or no SK and Town - 5

Right; we don't know if the third kill is a SK or a vig.

If it's 2-1-5 with a vig, then lynching red would be ideal, but lynching purple today isn't that bad; we'd then go into night with 7 people, so red gets a shot, vig gets a shot, and tommorow if the vig hits we have a "1 scum out of 5" situation; if the vig misses it'd be "2 scum out of 5"; either one of those is winnable, and all in all our chances wouldn't be bad. So, if we've got a vig, lynching a purple today might not be bad.

If there's a SK, though, and there's no crosskills, then if we lynch purple (or the SK) we could be facing a "2 red, 1 SK, 2 town" situation tommorow, and that's a LOT uglier, IMHO; still winnable-ish, but it's basicaly out of the town's hands at that point.

That looks scary to me. But I don't think I agree with a mass claim. If there are any remaining protection type roles, I dont think it wise to expose them, assuming of course that they dont protect red...

Possible. Any protective, roleblocking, unkillable, or vigging town roles tonight and tommorow could help our odds. Then again, would scum really be shooting for power roles? Shouldn't they be trying to kill each other instead at this point?

1 of those bullets is reds.
2 of those bullets will be firing into a crowd containing both red and 5 others.
1 bullet will be 25% influenced by red

So. We can gamble on one of those hitting red.

We have the benefit of seeing the result of the first one before nightfall. If it is

not

red, then here was what needs to happen.

Purple, do not submit a kill tonight

Hmm. So, you think Purple shouldn't shoot, in order to prevent a situation where there's only 4 left tommorow and 2 are red?

I guess that makes sense; but if Red and the SK both kill townies, then you're talking about a "2 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 1 townie" situation tommorow, which is a nightmare.

However, I think today that we should at least provide guidance in the form of placing a vote for our lynch target today, and then posting your choice for the Vig/SK tonight. I think that's a nice way to further establish voting patterns before tonight and tomorrow (kind of a 2 for 1 day with no night kill).

Yeah, it's something worth discussing, I suppose. If there's a SK, he should wants to kill red at this point as much as we want him to kill red.

[Yosarian2]

or why don't we nolynch today and see waht happens tonite?

that would still give us better odds yes?

Uh...I don't know. I am wondering if you're suggesting this because you think you might be the lynch today if we lynch, but I'll take it at face value for the moment, and try to figure out mathmatically what our odds are if we do different things today.

Whew...lot of math here, it's a complicated situation. Anyone, if I screw up the math, please feel free to correct me.

Let's assume for a second that we're dealing with 2 reds, 1 purple, and 1 SK. I'm also going to assume for the sake of this that all the scum are nightkillable, which may or may not be true (if there is a un-nkable SK around it'd change the odds somewhat) and that everyone who can kill will.

Odds of lynching a red today: 2/8
Odds of lynching SK or Purple today: 2/8
Odds of lynching town today: 4/8
-----
If we lynch a red today, then we go into tonight with 4 town and 3 scumgroups that have 1 member each.

Odds that any given scumgroup hits a member of another scum group: 2/7 (because each scumgroup is shooting into a group of 7 people, 2 of whom are in a different scum group)

Odds that all scumgroups hit town: 5/7*5/7*5/7 =125/343=36% chance.

So, if we lynch red today, there's a 36% chance that all 3 scum groups hit town, giving us a (1 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 1 town) situation, which is almost certanly a town loss.

So, say one of them gets killed (dosn't really matter to the town which one dies). That would put us in a situation tommorow where:

2 town
1 purple
1 red

Which isn't good; it's one of those "town loses unless the last two scum kill each other sucessfully" sitations, and those don't have good odds for the town.

The odds of 2 or more scum getting killed in that situation are pretty small.

That's if there's a SK. If the's a vig instead, then it's somewhat better, since in the "1 scum gets nightkilled" scenerio there's a 1/3 chance we end up with a "2 townie, 1 scum, 1 vig" situation instead.

Whew. All right.
----

Say we lynch the purple scum or the SK instead, removing one of the scum groups.

Then, we go into tommorow with either (I'm going to use "purple" and "SK" interchangably here, since it dosn't matter.)

2 red
1 SK
2 town

(Odds=5/7 chance the SK hits town *6/7 chance the red mafia hits town=30/49=61% chance)

This is the most likely outcome. Note this outcome is worse then the one I discribed above (since, best case, SK and Town work together to lynch a red scum; in that case, it becomes the scenerio from above, where there's 2 town 1 red and 1 SK). However, there's almost a 40% chance (higher in reality, since the scum should be trying to kill each other) that at least one of the scum dies, putting us in a much better "2 red, 3 town" or "1 red, 1 SK, 2 town".

(Again, if we're dealing with a vig, this scenerio becomes much better.)

So, oddly, so far I've come to the conclusion that, if we're dealing with 2 reds, 1 purple, 1 SK, we'd actually be better off lynching a purple or a SK instead of a red. The most likely scenerio is a little better if we lynch a red, but lynching a purple or a SK is much, much more likely to put us in a situation where town is back in the majority, whereas lynching a red could lose us the game on the spot..
---

I'm not going to bother trying to figure out what happens if we lynch a town today; I'm just going to assume it's probably bad, probably much worse odds then either of the above.

---
So now, say we no-lynch.

We go into tonight with 8 people still left. The red mafia has a 2/8 chance of hitting scum; the other two groups have a 3/8 chance of hitting some kind of scum.

Chances that all three hit town: 6/8*5/8*5/8=150/512=29% chance.

If they do, then it's 2 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 1 town. (Yuck).

Chances that no reds die=6/8*6/8= 36/64=56% chance.
If no reds die, then it's either the scenerio above (like I said, yuck); or there's a (6/8*7/8*7/8)=249/512=48% chance (for a total of a 26% chance) that at least one other scum dies, making it (2 red, 1 other scum, 2 town).

If a red dies die(44% chance), then the chance no other scum dies is (6/8*7/8)= 42/64=66% chance (or a total of 66%*44%=29%). That would make it (1 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 2 town). That's not a good situation either, about the same as the one above;; if a scum gets lynched that day, then the other two scum still have to crosskill for town to win.

So, the chances that 1 red and at least 1 other scum die are (44%*35%=15%). That would be (1 red, 1 purple, 3 town) (also includes a tiny chance included in this 15% that everyone crosskills, leaving us with of 1 scum 4 town, but that's so small it's not worth worrying about), which isn't bad and is winnable; town could lynch correctly two days in a row and then then win, or else if town lynches wrong there's still a chance of a crosskill or a double crosskill; all in all, it's a pretty good situation for the town, relitivly speaking.

So, if we no-lynch, odds of ending up in different situations are:

29%-2 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 1 town
26%: 2 red, 1 other scum, 1 town
29%-1 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 2 town
15%-1 red, 1 purple, 3 town (or better)

(Adds up to 99%, because I rounded stuff off)

----

I don't really like our odds if we no-lynch. I think our best bet today would actually be to either lynch purple or to lynch the SK; if we think there's a vig instead of a SK, lynching red isn't bad either.

[Yosarian2]

Edit: Last paragraph in the "if we lynch a purple" section should have read "However, there's almost a 40% chance (higher in reality, since the scum should be trying to kill each other) that at least one of the scum dies, putting us in a much better "2 red, 3 town" or "1 red, 1 SK,

3

town". (I said "2" instead of "3" by mistake.)

[Yosarian2]

Typo number 2:

As I said in my math, this should have read

So, if we no-lynch, odds of ending up in different situations are:

29%-2 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 1 town
26%: 2 red, 1 other scum, 2 town
29%-1 red, 1 purple, 1 SK, 2 town
15%-1 red, 1 purple, 3 town (or better)

(Adds up to 99%, because I rounded stuff off)

the 26% chance there should be been "2 red, 1 other scum, 2 town".

But, yeah; I think the goal for today should be to lynch a purple or a SK. It might also be nice to know if there's a vig or not, although, I don't know if we could trust one if we did a massclaim and someone did claim vig anyway.

[Yosarian2]

So...where is everyone? I hope math didn't scare everyone away, lol.

OGML: I was hopign for a response from Ecto before I asked for more from you, but I guess that's all the response we're getting. So, could you explain why you think ecto is scum, red scum specifically?

[Yosarian2]

Makes sense; it is strange how he was trying to say "Purple shouldn't shoot tonight" instead of "purple should try to shoot red or the SK tonight", when purple shooting red would be better for the town (and for purple) then purple not shooting.

So; any specific reason you think we should be trying to lynch a red scum isntead of a purple scum?

[Yosarian2]

also, what are the odds that Xyl knew some or all of the names of the various mafia members?

Um...I'd say that he either was already aligned with one mafia, in which case he might have known the names of the members of that mafia, or he was not aligned with either one yet, in which case I would think he wouldn't know anything. If it's the first case, there could be another traitor left, aligned with the other mafia; if it's the second, be could be the only one. (I can't imagine he could know the names of one mafia, and then the other mafia could recruit him; that just won't be fair, at all.)

I'd guess the second case is more likely, just because otherwise I'd expect him to show up as the same "color" as the mafia he was aligned with; so, my guess would be he didn't know anything.

[Yosarian2]

There's a bunch of people we need to hear from; I don't know why so many people are going quiet in such a critical situation, but I don't like it.

Mod, could you please prod
7. iamausername
9. CarnCarn
22. Der Hammer

[Yosarian2]

I do agree with Adel here that lurking, in this situation, is a strong scum tell; in this kind of situation, when there's up to 3 nightkills for every lynch and everything, scum are likely to try and keep their heads down, I'd think. If you've been sick, Carn, then that's understandable, but I would like to hear more content from you soon, especally more details about who you suspect.

[Yosarian2]

oh and at this point i would be content with a der hammer lynch,

here's why, yes he is a claimed miller and we let him live, however if had been in his shows i would be workin my ass off in this game to get the true scum

so with that

unvote: vote: der hammer

i thinlk at this point its a good lynch

Interesting.

As I said, his lurking right now is a scum tell, certanly. I still have doubts about if a scum would be likely to claim miller for no reason the way Der Hammer did.

[Yosarian2]

ok well i am up for a ogml lynch, but do you feel that he is better than der hammer and if so why,,


and yos what are your thoughts on ecto/ogml

Eh; OGML looks rather pro-town to me, I've been getting good vibes from him this game. Ecto could be scum.

[Yosarian2]

yos other than getting into a big WIFOM discussion, with adels new findings on der hammer do you think he is lynchable at this point,

Well, I'd really rather Der Hammer respond himself at this point; I defended him earlier, because I thought the miller claim the way he did it was unlikely to come from scum, but I'm not interested in defending him right now considering the way he's lurking, I'd much rather he respond for himself first.

That being said, I don't really think Adel is right about Der Hammer being an alt; he's been playing under the Der Hammer name for years now, and I've never had the impression he was someone else's alt; and if he was, I'm still not sure what that would have to do with his alignment.

[Yosarian2]

I doubt he's actually trying to lurk, as Yosarian2 said at top of the page.

When did I say that?

[Yosarian2]

in post 1526

I didn't say in post 1526 that "I doubt der hammer is trying to lurk"; to the contrary, I specifically said that I do consider his lurking today as a scumtell.

CarnCarn: You were the one who claimed that I said "Der Hammer is not trying to lurk"; what were you talking about, excatally?

[Yosarian2]

Vote:CarnCarn

I dislike der hammer's lurking, but Carn Carn has said even less; Just 11 posts in the month since he's replaced in, and several of them were excuses for not posting. Plus, I think he's more likely scum then der hammer is, although at this point, there are such a high percentage of scum in the game I'm not really ruling anyone oujt.

[Yosarian2]

Well, that's 3 votes; now, is anyone other then me, tubby, and Adel playing this game anymore?

[Yosarian2]

Unvote
Vote: Yosarian2

Adel, what do want me to say - I've got nothing to respond to and Y2's vote for me is pretty scummy.

As opposed to tubby, I don't have a good town feel on Y2 for pushing the lurker lynches of me and DH when IAAUN is also completely gone. Scumbuddies much?

I explained a while ago why scum would be very likely to lurk in this situation. There are multiple scum groups, and a scum at this point is likely to mostly just want to keep his head down and not be noticed; while a townie should desperatly be trying to find and lynch scum (which you have not been doing, at all, other then this one weak OMGUS attack.)

Do you disagree with me that scum are likely to lurk here?

Also, it's interesting for how you're just completly lying about der hammer; I never at all "pushed a der hammer lynch" at all.

And you're right, Iamasuername is also lurking pretty hardcore; the only difference is that it looks more like you are around but intentionally trying to stay under the radar, while he looks more like someone who, as you've said, seems to be completly gone. Do you think Iamusername is likely to be scum, or is this just random mudslinging? If so, why?

[Yosarian2]

I haven't been around at all - if you look at my posting history you'll notice I haven't been posting in any games over the past week or so, and also when I was gone when I was sick.

Ok, so you can make up for that now. Who do you think is scum, and why? What type of scum do you think they are? Or, who do you think is town, since there aren't that many town people left?

IAAUN on the other hand, if you remember Adel's link to his post history, has been around and posting in other threads.

Fair enough. Considering how many scum there are, I think it's actually pretty likely you're both scum.

I'll agree that lurking/inactivity isn't helpful to town, but when you've mentioned lurking, except for one post, you've referred only to me and DH.

In most of my posts, I think I've made it clear I would NOT be in favor of a DH lynch, becuase, as I've been saying all game, I don't think a scum would claim miller the way that he did. That one post, someone was trying to push a DH lynch because he was lurking, and I said "Yeah, but CarnCarn is also lurking, and I think he's more likely CarnCarn is scum then DH."

I do disagree with you that scum are likely to lurk here. What makes them more likely to lurk than not lurk? It's (lurking) is easily seen as hurting town, so why would they (scum) do that? Scum are much more subtle than that when it comes to hurting town.

That last sentance is just false, by the way; I see lurker scum ALL THE TIME, and towns lose to lurker scum way too often, usually because they fall prey to bad WIFOM "scum wouldn't lurk because lurking looks bad, so let's not lynch a lurker" arguments like the one you're trying to use here.

In this case, the main goal of a scum isn't just to lynch someone and not get lynched today; the main goal of a scum is to not get lynched today and then not get nightkilled tonight, and considering how many nightkills there are, that's probably a higher concern. So a scum in this situation don't want to just look pro-town, they want to not be noticed, at all, by anyone. Which is why they would want to try to fly under the radar. And the posts you have made today, that's what they look like to me, "fly under the radar posts".

As for why I think IAAUN is scum, it was mostly a gut read from what I read of sobeahero's posts (whom IAAUN replaced). I'll try to point out specific posts that got me to think that way when I have some more time later tonight.

Ok, I'd like to hear it.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so you can make up for that now. Who do you think is scum, and why? What type of scum do you think they are? Or, who do you think is town, since there aren't that many town people left?

Thinking about this some more, the interactions between players suggest a 3 + 3 + 1(traitor) setup. So, that leaves 1 purple and 2 red scum.

Yes, just like I said. There's also a third killing group, which is either a SK or a vig.

Scum
IAAUN (red)
Yosarian2 (red)
HowardRoark/Tubby/DH (1 of these three is probably the purple; need to look for interactions with the other dead purples)

And this is all based on me attacking you for lurking and not attacking IAAUN or Der Hammer?

In most of my posts, I think I've made it clear I would NOT be in favor of a DH lynch, becuase, as I've been saying all game, I don't think a scum would claim miller the way that he did. That one post, someone was trying to push a DH lynch because he was lurking, and I said "Yeah, but CarnCarn is also lurking, and I think he's more likely CarnCarn is scum then DH."

OK, that's true and I agree... but I was talking about your lack of mentioning IAAUN in the same group as me/DH when you mention lurkers.

That's really not true. First time I mentione lurkers was when I asked the mod to prod Iamusername, you, and der hammer; I think I was the first one to POINT OUT he was lurking, in fact. The only time I mentioned der hammer and you in the same post was in the post where I voted for you, and the only reason I mentioned der hammer at all in that post was to say in response to tubby's der hammer vote that I thought you were more likely scum then der hammer was.

I realize it's WIFOM but town lurk just as much scum.

I really don't think that's true; town lurk, but I think scum lurk more. I think it's even more true in this kind of situation, when town might no longer have the real majority (it might be 4 town against 2/1/1).

And the posts you have made today, that's what they look like to me, "fly under the radar posts".

Not sure what you mean by that. Yes, quantity of posts have been low; no, I've made my opinions quite clear on who I think is scum and who is town. I haven't chosen to not post much as some sort of grand strategy, if that's what you're accusing me of. When I've been gone from this thread, I've been gone in others as well.

You've "made your opinions clear on who you think is scum and town"? Up until the point you OMGUS voted me, there was only tow lines in all of your posts all day that gave any indication at all of whom you wanted to lynch today:

Right now, I would say I'm leaning toward voting IAAUN if I had to vote, but I plan to be more careful with my vote today, seeing how things happened yesterday.

ogml's not a great lynch IMO, as he is leaning town to me - much prefer a IAAUN/DH lynch today.

While those gave some indication as to where your suspicions might lie (on a side note; why are you arguing with me so much that lurking isn't a scum tell, if your two suspects were the other two lurkers?), you never pushed a wagon, you never made a case, you never really attacked or argued, you never voted, you never actually made any effort to try to get anyone lynched. In general, your posts were quite passive, including those two quotes, which were very passive. Hence, it looks more to me like you were trying to fly under the radar, it dosn't look at all like you could be a townie in a "we lynch wrong and we're screwed" situation despretaly trying to find and lynch the scum.

First of all, it's not OMGUS. Second, I never said IAAUN is "so horrible"; I think Yosarian2's defense by omission is more recent and stronger scum-tell than my gut opinions on sobeahero from early in the game.

"Defense by omission"? So, just because I didn't mention Iamusername in ONE POST, in the post where I voted you, because he wasn't actually relevent to the comparison I was trying to make between der hammer, and even though I was the one who pointed out Iam was lurking in the first place, somehow me not mentioning him in "that one post" is STRONGER then your read on Iam all game?

Also, dosn't your entire attack on me only make sense at all if Iam is scum? So, why would you suggest a link between me and him and then attack me, unless your attack was OMGUS?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, does OGML's recent lack of posting change your opinion of his alignment?

ok well i am up for a ogml lynch, but do you feel that he is better than der hammer and if so why,,


and yos what are your thoughts on ecto/ogml

Eh; OGML looks rather pro-town to me, I've been getting good vibes from him this game. Ecto could be scum.

Eh...I want to hear from him, but no, I still think he's probably town.

For one thing, even in the small number of posts he's had today, his scumhunting today looks more honest then yours does.

[Yosarian2]

Yes, just like I said. There's also a third killing group, which is either a SK or a vig.

I don't remember you saying that - I haven't read this game in a while. If you did, then that puts your comments in a much better light.

Really? That whole big mathmatical analysis post I made was based on an assumption that there are 2 red, 1 purple, and either a SK or a vig left.

Anyway, you are right that NUMERICALLY, you have more posts then some. However, you have a lot of posts with zero content or close to it, and your total content for the day is very, very low. Which, like I said, suggests to me that you are trying to fly under the radar.

I don't think you've ever mentioned any suspicion of me prior to this and you vote me basically for lurking when IAAUN and OGML are guilty of the same.

Oh, Iam might very well be scum too. If we're dealing with 2 red, 1 purple, and 1 SK, there's only 4 town left. If there's a vig, it's 5 town left. Either way, there's few enough that I'm perfectly happy looking to see which people look pro-town to me, and then voting someone who dosn't. And you've given me absolutly no reason to think you're pro-town this game.

For one thing, even in the small number of posts he's had today, his scumhunting today looks more honest then yours does.

OGML posts today:
...

Unvote, Vote: Ectomancer

My gut says he's scum, logic says if thats true he's red scum for trying to get purple scum not to shoot tonight.

Sorry, I'm not seeing what you're seeing in his posts.[/quote]

This right here. Those last two posts, the vote on ectomancer, and then the logic that he's likely to be a red scum for trying to get purple not to shoot, is actually a logical point, a valid, direct attack (instead of a passive "I think Iam might be scum but I'm not going to vote..." thing like you did), and he was attacking someone that no one else was at the time; all in all, in just those two posts, he looks more like a pro-town person honestly trying to find scum then you do.

Like I said, I also had a good feeling about his play earlier in the game.

Up until the point you OMGUS voted me, there was only tow lines in all of your posts all day that gave any indication at all of whom you wanted to lynch today:

Yeah, I didn't have time/energy to flesh out those posts. You'll notice they are fragments/rushed sentences - makeshift posts, if you will.

As you pointed out, you made 11 posts. Without posting any more then you have, you should have been pleanty of time to say "I think Iam is scum because of X, vote Iam, he's scum." Even if you didn't have time to do a lengthy analysis or anything, that dosn't justify the total lack of reasons, or the total lack of agressive scumhunting.

In general, your posts were quite passive, including those two quotes, which were very passive.

Your posts are no less "passive." In fact, most of your post content today was about theory or scenario mapping. But, let's have a look at your opinions of other players today:

As I said, his lurking right now is a scum tell, certanly. I still have doubts about if a scum would be likely to claim miller for no reason the way Der Hammer did.

Eh; OGML looks rather pro-town to me, I've been getting good vibes from him this game. Ecto could be scum.

Well, I'd really rather Der Hammer respond himself at this point; I defended him earlier, because I thought the miller claim the way he did it was unlikely to come from scum, but I'm not interested in defending him right now considering the way he's lurking, I'd much rather he respond for himself first.

Vote:CarnCarn

I dislike der hammer's lurking, but Carn Carn has said even less; Just 11 posts in the month since he's replaced in, and several of them were excuses for not posting. Plus, I think he's more likely scum then der hammer is, although at this point, there are such a high percentage of scum in the game I'm not really ruling anyone oujt.

That's it. Your other posts before this one are all speculations about the way the mafia traitor role worked or about the purple scum not shooting red or red not shooting purple nonsense which I don't see why any scum would listen to.

Ok, that's just dishonest on your part. I discussed what the town should do, if we should lynch or no lynch and what type of scum we should try to lynch. The discussion on the mafia traitor role was actually pretty important too; we were trying to figure out if the mafia traitor would have known who the scum were or not, because if he did, then we could look back and Xyl's posts and examine them for possible links. And the "red or purple" thing was primarally a talk about OGML's comment that Ecto's comment was a scumtell.

Was the tone of my posts a little passive? I suppose; I hadn't really "locked on" to one person yet at that point, but I was making clear who I thought was town and who I thought was scum; and saying that I was trying to run under the radar is just crazy, since I was basically posting more content then almost anyone else in the game.

All very speculative and actively distracting town from what's important: searching out scum.

Yes, that is what town should be doing. It is not what you have been doing. Therefore, you are probably not town.

Even active lurking isn't that bad (and I wasn't active lurking).

"Active lurking isn't that bad"? Didn't you just say that town should be searching for scum?

"Defense by omission"? So, just because I didn't mention Iamusername in ONE POST, in the post where I voted you, because he wasn't actually relevent to the comparison I was trying to make between der hammer, and even though I was the one who pointed out Iam was lurking in the first place, somehow me not mentioning him in "that one post" is STRONGER then your read on Iam all game?

Your voted me for what? Lurking? How isn't IAAUN, who you did mention in your call for prods, relevant here? I can understand you not voting DH based on the miller claim. I can even understand if you had protown vibes from OGML. But how is it OK to leave out IAAUN for whom you have nothing to offset the lurking accusation (and who is actively lurking, not just inactive site-wide)?

I voted for you for trying to fly under the radar. Iamusername needs to post more, and should probably be replaced if he dosn't. He may very well be scum, by process of elimination if nothing else, and he'd probably be my second choice to lynch today. You have been here, you have been posting somewhat, but you have been doing your best to avoid any contravery and avoid giving any actual opinions. You probably are scum.

Also, dosn't your entire attack on me only make sense at all if Iam is scum? So, why would you suggest a link between me and him and then attack me, unless your attack was OMGUS?

I thought I was already voting him (notice the "Unvote"), but apparently I wasn't. I do think you are both scum, and he's not posted in this thread for a while, so I decided to attack the person I think is his scumbuddy.

That was the original basis for my suspicion of you, but as I've read through your other posts today, I notice you've not done much scumhunting yourself - only piping in to comment on what others have said, and you've been here the whole time. That's certainly "flying under the radar", and from previous experience that is what scum do to hurt town (very subtle, not like disappearing for weeks in plain sight). I'm happy with my vote.

Not only have I been "hunting for scum" and trying to figure out people's alignments, I'm pretty sure I've found one, and nothing you said has changed my mind.

[Yosarian2]

Yos2, what do you think the most likely alignment is for Ecto/HowardRoark out of {red, purple, 3rd party, town}

Well, I agree with you that if he is scum, he's more likely to be red scum then purple scum. Probably not SK, based on some comments he made about the SK earlier today. So, I'd say he's probably either red or town.

Before today, I wasn't really suspicious of ecto. That being said, there are probably only 3 or 4 town people left other then me, and there's seveal people who look more pro-town then ecto does to me right now. Probably about 50/50 if he's red scum or town.

[Yosarian2]

carn carn, yos adel ogml thoughts on howard thus far??

i like his reads thus far

Yeah, he did a good job at his analysis. It's interesting he then settled on voting for someone no one else was voting for, though; his reasons for suspecting der hammer make good sense, don't get me wrong, but it'll be interesting to see what he does if his der hammer wagon continues to not be going anywhere, if he'll just leave his vote there, in a relitivly "safe" place, or what he'll do next.

Interesting stuff Howard, but you basically just reaffirmed my belief that you're scum with either username or yos2.

Hmm. Because he has less negitive to say about me or imusername?

I could see a Howard/Imuername red scum group.

[Yosarian2]

If I decide to change my vote, it will go to either iamusername or OhGodMyLife.

So, in a situation with 8 people alive and 3 kills a night, in a situation were as much as half of the people alive might be anti-town, you'd really rather cause a no-lynch then lynch this guy?

On CarnCarn

farside22

:

farside22 was not contributing anything useful to the hunt; mostly answering questions, making quick comments about what others had said, and some summary posts.

My hunch: they are all scum, and don't want to draw a cross kill.

You couldn't be more wrong - I'll glady give my life for my town, which I hold so dear to my heart.

/patriotism

Fluff with a hint of appeal to emotion.

do disagree with you that scum are likely to lurk here. What makes them more likely to lurk than not lurk? It's (lurking) is easily seen as hurting town, so why would they (scum) do that? Scum are much more subtle than that when it comes to hurting town.

WIFOM.

I should also add that I haven't had the time to read the entire thread yet, only up to page 25 or so, and again from when I've replaced in (page 55). If you look at my first post in this thread, it's a vote for IAAUN through reading page 6.

1. This is why I believe that you shouldn't vote after replacing until you have read the entire thread at least once.
2. At the time of that post you are holding a vote on Yosarian2, but have yet to make a case against him.
3. You haven't even provided a case against iamusername.

Post 1586 is your longest post to date, yet it is mostly responses and arguments without evidence. Then there is this little tidbit . . .

Even active lurking isn't that bad (and I wasn't active lurking).

I believe that active lurking is very bad, and I believe that most players would agree. (Pssst. Yes you have been.)

Yeah, Howard is scum.

[Yosarian2]

Eh...I'd still rather lynch Carn, I still think he's probably the purple scum. I'll hammer whoever is necessary in order to avoid a no-lynch, though.

[Yosarian2]

Mod: THe deadline is on tuesday the 24'th, right? What time of day will the deadline be?

[Yosarian2]

Eh...I'd still rather lynch Carn, I still think he's probably the purple scum. I'll hammer whoever is necessary in order to avoid a no-lynch, though.

or you could quit stalling and vote der hammer,, like now perhaps would be good

"stalling"? I think Carn is the purple scum, and we really want to lynch the purple scum today, so as long as there's a decent chane of Carn getting lynched, I'm going to keep pushing that wagon.

I will lynch der hammer if I need to, but I still don't think it's the right move.

How is that "stalling"?

[Yosarian2]

its waiting to vote,, thats the part i do not like. i have been screwed over before people "oh i'l hammer "

screw that if you are goin to vote vote

I am voting, I'm voting for the person I think needs to die today. You know, the same person you were voting for, like 7 hours ago?

[Yosarian2]

boo twisting

What am I "twisting", exactally?

[Yosarian2]

Meh...I still think there's a significant risk that der hammer actually is a pro-town miller. Still, assuming the deadline is in fact on Tuesday (Mod? Or can someone else confirm that?

See the vote count.

), I will vote him tommorow night if needed in order to ensure a lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. Well, with the vig dead, a massclaim probably won't do any harm; although I don't know how much good it's likely to do either.

[Yosarian2]

Could Der Hammer be a mafia goon in a mafia that has a living doctor in it?

Well...mafia doctors are possible, but if there's a failed vig kill, it'd be more likely it was on a nk-immune godfather, especally since purple mafia had a godfather.

[Yosarian2]

With two cops, it seems likely that godfather = inv-immune, though. And I'm pretty sure it wouldn't mean inv-immune AND nk-immune, considering how frequently I've seen The Fonz bitching about how unfair it is to give both to SKs.

Good point; he has taken that point of view on MD lots of times.
Yos... I don't have anything in particular I want to ask you right now, besides the obvious "who is scum?" type of thing that everybody should be answering.

Well...I'm thinking that the most likely scum groups here are der hammer-Iamusername, Adel-Iamusername, and Iamusername-tubby, and Adel-tubby. I don't really think it's that likely that either Tubby or Adel is paired up with Der Hammer, considering how hard they were both trying to lynch him for much of yesterday. So right now, based on that, my main two choices to lynch today are either you or tubby; looking at those groups, I think that at least one of the two you is almost certanly scum.

[Yosarian2]

why not Iamusername-Der Hammer?

Well, it's possible. Iamusername's der hammer vote yesterday seemed was pretty key, but it could have been bussing.

Still, I think the lynch today is either Iamusername or Tubby; I have trouble coming up with a probable scum group that dosn't inclue one of them.

[Yosarian2]

Tubby: Could you explain a little more what you mean about the Adel metagame thing? I'm a bit confused by what you mean there.

[Yosarian2]

Interesting thoughts, tubby.

The idea that Adel would warp her entire playstyle to match her playstyle in one game she was town with you, just to get you on her side, sounds a little extreme to me, even for Adel.

That being said, in a more general sense, I could see a scum-Adel hoping you would follow her today, if you are town.

From my point of view, scum-Adel and town-Tubby would almost certanly mean her scumbuddy is Iamusername; I still don't think Adel could be scum with der hammer. Iamusername is also the most likely scumbuddy to you if you're scum, in my mind, and he's basically the only one who could work as a scumbuddy to Der Hammer either.

Basically, if you are town, tubby, I think Iamusername would have to be scum; and it strikes me as odd you haven't really commented on him yet, even after I said I'd probably want to lynch either you or him today since I think at least one of the two of you pretty much has to be scum. What do you think about Iamusername?

[Yosarian2]

Iamusername's der hammer vote yesterday seemed was pretty key, but it could have been bussing.

Which one of me, tubby and Adel was actually voting Der Hammer at the end of D5 (and also D1, for that matter)?

Whose vote do you write off as "could be bussing"?

How does that make sense?

You attacked and voted Der Hammer once, in a situation where it looked like he was probably going to be lynched no matter what you did.

Adel attacked Der Hammer almost constnatly, and at one point almost turned a Carn Carn lynch into a Der Hammer lynch pretty much on her own. That's why I think your vote could be a bussing vote, and I think it's less likely her behavior was.

Still, I think the lynch today is either Iamusername or Tubby; I have trouble coming up with a probable scum group that dosn't inclue one of them.

I'm having trouble imagining a scum group that doesn't include Der Hammer.

Well, if we're all doing this, I'm having trouble seeing one that doesn't include Yosarian.

:eyebrow: Oh? Preytell?

[Yosarian2]

a situation where it looked like he was probably going to be lynched no matter what you did.

I think the fact that he, you know,

didn't get lynched

proves that there was no such situation.

(shrug) That's the point where a person is most likely to bus his partner, though, is when it looks like that partner is *likely* to be lynched; and that is when you voted Der Hammer.

Adel attacked Der Hammer almost constnatly, and at one point almost turned a Carn Carn lynch into a Der Hammer lynch pretty much on her own. That's why I think your vote could be a bussing vote, and I think it's less likely her behavior was.

What about tubby?

Eh...tubby's harder to read, but the tone in his posts when he was trying to get me to switch from the carn carn wagon to th der hammer wagon don't really strike me that way.

Well, if we're all doing this, I'm having trouble seeing one that doesn't include Yosarian.

:eyebrow: Oh? Preytell?

I agree that Adel is probably not scum with DH/Seraphim. I think tubby is town. That leaves two possible pairs, and both include you.

(shrug) From where I'm sitting, if tubby is town, you pretty much have to be scum. The only plausable scum-pair that dosn't include you is Tubby-Adel; I guess tubby-der hammer isn't imposible, but I don't really think that's it. And even there, even if Tubby is scum, I think Tubby-Iamusername is a more likely pairing then Tubby-Adel.

I'm actually pretty close to voting Iamusername right now, because the odds of him being town are small; I'm mostly just waiting for the massclaim at this point.

[Yosarian2]

vanillia townie. I want Iamusername to claim next

[Yosarian2]

honestly i have no idea i'll have to read on him awhile...

let me do that and i will get back to you

Still waiting to hear what tubby thinks about imusername.

[Yosarian2]

I'd really like everyone to comment on Iamusername here; I'm pretty sure he is scum at this point, but we also need to gather info today so we can lynch his buddy tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

tubby, who is scum?

I'd much rather lynch Seraphim. His continued greater level of activity in other games just re-enforces the scumminess of Der Hammer's lurking and miller claim.

If Seraphim is scum, Yos is obviously his partner, y/n?

Um...if Seraphim is scum, you seem like a pretty likely partner to him, considering your behavior in general and the timing of your vote on him, Iamusername. Same is true if Tubby is scum or if Adel is scum.

I'm actually pretty close to voting Iamusername right now, because the odds of him being town are small; I'm mostly just waiting for the massclaim at this point.

Massclaim's done, what are you waiting for now?

I'm in no big rush; this is lynch or lose, after all, and most of the town is being frustratingly quiet; I want to get reactions out of everyone, try to get as much information as I can. Why, what's your rush?

[Yosarian2]

No rush, I'm just wondering why you said "I'm actually pretty close to voting Iamusername right now" when that was apparently not true.

Oh, it is true.

[Yosarian2]

So...is this supposed to determine who we lynch, Adel? How does points instead of votes reduce scum influince?

[Yosarian2]

How does points instead of votes reduce scum

influence

?

the random order, and being forced to split points amoung two or more players each round.

Ah...ok, makes sense I guess. I'll

support the points plan

.

[Yosarian2]

Ok:

2 points to Iamusername
1 point to Tubby

Code: Select all

[dice]1d4[/dice]

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. tubby

[Yosarian2]

Opps, my bad.

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[Yosarian2]

Seraphim is next.

[Yosarian2]

2 points Iamusername, 1 point tubby.

1. Adel
2. iamausername
3. Seraphim
4. Yos2
5. Tubby

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[Yosarian2]

2 points Iamusername, 1 point Tubby.

Iamusername: You realize there's only 2 scum, right? One scum may be avoiding giving points to his partner (or may not be, depending), but you trying to say "No one suspects Yos so he must be scum" is just a bad argument.

[Yosarian2]

..if that is what you are saying. I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here.

[Yosarian2]

well i really don't think adel is scum, cause if adel was scum adel would have already built a pretty nice case agianst me and i would have already been lynched. But since no such case has been made and i still exsist in this game adel must be town.

Unless you're scum with her, of course.

Actually, this kind of matches what I think; the only possible scumpair I had that didn't include Iamusername was Adel+Tubby. With Adel's vote, I'm now basically certain of it; either Iamusername is scum, or Adel and Tubby are scum together. Tubby+Iamusername is another likely pair as well, probably more likely then Tubby+Adel, especally since Tubby basically refused to say anything about Iamusername even when I asked him to do so multiple times.

Iamusername: Do you have anything else to say for yourself here?

[Yosarian2]

i'm calling the iamausername+Yos2 scum team.

nice bus fellas.

That's weak, Adel. Why would scum want to bus in lynch or lose?

Anyway, if you really think that the scumteam is me and Iamusername, then why did you just unvote Iamusername?

[Yosarian2]

That's weak, Adel. Why would scum want to bus in lynch or lose?

Same reason they'd want to bus any other time. To throw the town off their scent.

I think every time I've been scum in 5p lylo, I've attacked my partner. If Adel's done any looking into my past games at all, I'm sure she's noticed this trend.

Anyone else read this as "Hey, I'm scum and I think I'm going to get lynched today; let me see if I can link myself to Yos here so my real partner can manipulate Adel into voting for Yos tommorow"?

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Well, if Iamusername is town, and he just voted for me and went to bed, town probably just lost the game.

So, it's lucky that he's almost certanly not town.

Vote:Iamusername

It'll be interesting to see how everyone reacts now.

[Yosarian2]

...Interesting, Iamusername. Why the unvote?

[Yosarian2]

He didn't make any big posts, though, he didn't do much of anything, like 90% of the game.

Well, that's more because I ended up in way too many games at the start of this year...I was like in 10 games in january, and I didn't have time, ended up not posting enough in bascially all of them. I certnaly, well, did stuff before then...

Anyway, good game, everyone. Adel was awesome, she was the one who figured out Xtoxm was purple scum so we could kill him night 4.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, yeah, Yos, would you have defended Der Hammer as town? It seemed risky here with multiple scumgroups.

Yeah; I was defending der hammer here because I was almost certain he was town, and so I would have done the same as town, I think. Only difference was that I was defending him here kind of expecting he would get lynched despite my defense and thus make me look better, lol.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Adel is right here. We did not have the advantage when she replaced in; the two scum teams were even. Then, first, our scumteam nightkilled a member of the other team, and then we lynched the other member of the other scumteam. Making it sound like we were already winning when Adel replaced in really isn't fair to Adel.

[Yosarian2]

Ecto: Actually, in the mafia quicktopic, I was origionally planning to kill you, because I thought there was a significant risk you'd get me lynched. Adel convinced me to try to kill someone in the purple scum group instead, and she was right about Xtoxm.

OGML: The thing that really gave you away to me was when I had that whole big analysis saying "if there's a vig, we should lynch red scum; if there's a SK, we should lynch purple scum" and you responded saying "I think we should lynch red scum."

[Yosarian2]

I don't remember how I felt about Yos on D1, but I knew something was wrong when he wasn't killed early on in the game. If I were scum, I would have taken out YoS on N1.

I hate this argument. First of all, I don't really get scumkilled all that often when I'm town; I made it to endgame as town all the time. And secondly, there were two different scumgroups, and the other scumgroup didn't decide to kill me.