Open 81 - The New C9 - Game Over

[Korts]

Do I really have any other option right now? Obviously I can't judge this from an objective angle, but your apparent confidence in me not being doc is too great considering the situation here. Your proof of me not being doc doesn't amount to much more than WIFOM. If I say you're suspicious for this, you mean to imply it's just OMGUS?

[Korts]

DRUNKPOST WARNING

There's a whole lot of other content in the game. Did my defense of Ting look like buddying? Did my attacks on OP and IAUN look like bussing?

I think your play has been consistently pro-town other than the fact that you're trying to lynch me No but seriously, I'll do a thorough reread on you tomorrow, something which I probably have promised a few times' tomorrows already, knowing myself...

You keep saying I have confidence that you're not the doc. This is a twist of words. I picked you out as most likely scum on D1 and haven't wavered much from that stance. I don't believe your doc claim saves you. So I'm not 'confident you're not the doc,' I'm 'confident you're scum.' You think I'm scum because I'm confident you're scum = OMGUS.

Ok, fair enough, I guess. I can see your point.

I think at this point we should just back off; we've both made out points pretty clear, we're not getting much farther without the others.

@Both Korts and SC - There are two other (relatively inactive) players in the game. At least one of them is scum (unless it's a strife/korts scum-team). BM's (now Farside) play was unusual for him. Fonz spent most of the game screaming back and forth with Ting. Should be worthwhile to try and pick out the scum team.

I already picked the most likely scumteam, if you hadn't noticed. I'm focusing on you especially because

you're just that handsome

no-one else (unconfirmed) is participating in the game right now...

[Korts]

I have to do some hardcore studying for tomorrow, so no analyses today, sadly...

[Korts]

If it isn't Korts, it's farside-strife

You apparently being a vanilla, this is the only thing you could say as to your suspicions, so why say it? If it isn't me (it isn't), SC is confirmed, and it's two scum out of three, so naturally everyone would be pointing at the other two. I can't phrase why that seems scummy to me to state.

Hang on? How the hell does that confirm you? That would only work if you thought OP actually believed that his attempt to 'counterclaim' you might work. Now, it's possible he actually is that stupid, but it's also equally possible he was just trying to bus (with the caveat about how wrong my previous bus read was).

Okay, that's true.

Well, hang on, Occam's razor also suggests that the most likely reason for a claimed doc to survive multiple nights is that he's scum, surely?

Yes, that's true, but not the point. I

know

I'm being set up, so to me it's a particularly strong tell when someone pushes for my lynch with so much conviction.

Objection. Leading question. If it were a bus, it wouldn't be an attempt to save his ass, but to distance. Again, it depends on how stupid you think OP is

I don't think he's stupid, per se, but his actions indicate that he was pretty desperate not to get lynched. Of course, you're right. Take it this way: which is likelier, me, the real doc being counterclaimed by OP as a last-ditch attempt at saving his ass, or OP being clear-minded enough despite his apparent panic at the speed of his lynch to distance one of his scumbuddies? This, too, depends on how you judge OP and his play.

I'm trying to work out under what circumstances scum would dare to leave a doctor alive this long, with a vig as well. Running the numbers, if Korts' claim is genuine, then scum HAVE to get him lynched today, or the best they can do is a draw. Given your apparent attitude to his claim, that's not a bet i'd take if it were me. But then, iirc farside can be pretty bold as scum, I don't have a meta on strife.

I know it must take bold scum to let me live this far, but the sheer mass of WIFOM generated is enough to drive my lynch. Note: Fonz is trying to disassociate the boldness of this gambit from his person ("that's not a bet I'd take if it were me"). It looks to me like he's trying to exclude himself from the speculation on the scumpair, although I could see town doing it too.

[Korts]

I believe I tried pretty hard to get BM (Farside's predecessor) lynched for the past 2 days. You should be able to go over that quickly to decide if you think it was bussing, distancing, or legit.

You seem anxious for Fonz to get over evaluating a strife-farside pairing and move on to the much more important task of mislynching me.

Willing to switch to strife at deadline. The BM case doesn't seem to be more than 'has gone inactive.' We have another method to deal with that, if you catch my drift.

What was your drift?

That the inactive BM/Jordan role would make a pretty good vig target, obviously.

Just wanted to make sure. This is actually a very relevant comment, as it's not something I'd expect scum-partners to do in order to distance.

Very fair point, thank you. This, and the previous quote, makes me think a farside-strife pairing is more probable.

Precisely because it's the only other possible scumpair? I'm not seeing your problem here. If it isn't you, it has to be the other two, therefore it makes sense to take a long, hard look at Farside-Strife, and see how much sense that specific scumpair makes, and then to use that information to re-evaluate Korts. Because, by the same token, if it's not those two together, it has to be you.

I think my problem was that you stated the obvious like it was a revelation of some sort. I don't see right now how that was a problem in particular, but oh well.

[Korts]

farside, Fonz isn't really pushing the issue that I wasn't killed, he just said that that may be a point against me. It's WIFOM, yes, but it takes mafia with spunk to leave the doc alive. And I hate spunk.

BTW, happy scumday

[Korts]

I can't blame him for not committing to a side on the subject, it's not like it isn't, you know, circular logic.

[Korts]

However in Korts defense here, he did almost change the lynch from Ting to OP in this post:

Okay, that's a town point for you. It would've been fairly easy to twist that into me bussing OP. On the other hand, if I were in your position as town and as convinced as you seem in the claimed doc lying, I'd probably twist anything I could into implicating my main suspect at this point.

A point against a strife-farside scumpair is the fact that when the game had stalled, strife switched between BM and OP. I'm not sure he'd have attempted distancing/bussing BOTH his remaining partners, although this is bordering on circular logic again.

[Korts]

Voting to save your own ass? Is that pro-town?

Well, if you're a doctor... kinda, yes. You should generally prefer any lynch to the one of the one player you know for sure is town. So that makes perfect sense either as scum or town.

This. When there's a clear cut choice between you and another player, would you, under any circumstance, vote yourself instead of the other guy?

Mindless bandwagoning, is it not?

The fact that it is on a scum is relevant, though.

The more relevant point is the activity and amount of content being produced at that time. As I said then, and you quoted it, SC, the game needed a kickstart, because it was stalling. A wagon is at least

something

to talk about.

[Korts]

I see no point in waiting around anymore. Strife is definite scum in my eyes, and discussion's completely stalled.

vote: strife

[Korts]

Explain.

[Korts]

You can say that. I'm voting him for his unnatural conviction in me lying. He hasn't seriously considered me being the real doc, which I think would be pro-town. His points against me are pretty much speculation and circular logic, and the assumption that the doc would've been killed off ASAP, while the alternative is also worth thought, that scum kept the doc alive in the hopes of getting him lynched.

I guess my points have all been said before, but my conviction in strife being scum is pretty big right now.

[Korts]

SC, I'm trying to figure out whether it may be optimal for you not to shoot tonight. You'll have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting the last scum, and if you miskill, that may lose the town's chance. On the other hand, you'll have to take into account the fact that you have a fairly good chance of targetting the same person as the scum, and the fact that I may manage another save tonight.

[Korts]

Now either Fonz hasn't calculated in the factor that there'll be TWO NKs if SC shoots, and that town will be going into D6 with 1:1 scum:town ratio if SC misses and scum pull off a kill,

OR

he's scum and wants SC to kill me, through this faulty logic. SC, I say that if you shoot tonight, shoot Fonz.

[Korts]

No need for numbers, I get your point now. Guess I overreacted a bit.

If strife flips scum, we can do much better than a draw. We don't need a potential miskill ruining our chance at a town win.

I definitely say SC should refrain from shooting tonight, and the town will go to D6 2:1, where SC will just have to choose one of two. I think a fifty percent chance at winning is better than a one in three chance (through vig shot) of winning.

[Korts]

I just reread a couple of farside's most recent posts. I'm second-guessing myself right now. I can see a strife-farside team, with one of them pushing for a doctor-lynch with senseless conviction, while the other protects the claimed doctor from every attack, and never comes around to really doubting him. It would be a very nice plan, indeed. SC, I think this is gonna be hard on you tomorrow...

[Korts]

The more I think of it, the more I'm convinced... Fonz had considered both sides of the stories, while farside always sided with me in the strife-Korts debate.

[Korts]

I'm just guessing, but come tomorrow, you'll know my alignment too. Consider these my parting words, I'm going to sleep and possibly not be able to log on before twilight's over.

[Korts]

Okay, I guess I have to agree with strife here. If he flips town, you obviously will have to shoot one of farside/Fonz for a draw.

[Korts]

Well, at least Fonz had his way and got the draw. I'm... moderately pleased, I managed to get out of being lynched, although retrospectively, it seems the scum

let

me get out of it. I'm interested to hear why they didn't advocate a claimed doc lynch even a little, with farside outright defending me.

Sorry, strife, for pushing your lynch... I just thought it odd that you would push my wagon so hard when there was a clear possibility of me being the doc.

[Korts]

wait...i was in this game? :S

... Yeah. As a temporary replacement to Jordan.

[Korts]

Well not as far as how the night actions resolved, no.