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UglyDuck
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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I don't do RVS.In post 33, fua wrote:
Alice, Uglyduck, and Jackson are the only three that came in and posted without giving a vote. Could it be that they don’t want anything to be traced back to them?In post 31, AliceK wrote:
That's tempting, but I think we can also wait for him to be replaced out.In post 28, Three wrote:Can we flash wagon Not Mafia?
Not posted yet: Andres, Kyouko, Not_Mafia, and MargotRosa.
VOTE: Uglyduck[/c]
Discuss.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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Agree that if they are not Vig, then real vig should not CC.In post 55, Three wrote:Nobody should publically CC. NM gets naturally resolved tonight. If he's true claiming then mafia deals with him. If he's fake claiming then the real Vig's bullet will be the CC.
However, the rest of it is not that simple.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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This is obviously implying he has "done stuff like this before". Has he done this... stuff like this? Save me some time please, and just help fill in the meta for someone that does not know it.In post 54, fua wrote:Considering his track record I’m not inclined to believe N_M unless there’s no counterclaim.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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I mean.... that is arbitrary.In post 71, Dwlee99 wrote:I don't want to bog down the thread talking about this but the idea is if you're on, say, 6 - 2, and you lim someone, you enter night 5 - 2 (or 6 - 1), and then you end night on odds (scum kill + vigilante kill) giving you, say 3 - 2, which is an extra town kill than if the vigilante didn't shoot and you entered the next day 4 - 2 (which is still ELO of some form w/ or w/o the vig shot)
The fact is that when you shoot at a point in the game when you do not have a realistic potential to have a good grasp on who could be skum, it is highly more likely that you shoot town than skum. That removes a town vote for all following days that would of otherwise been there. That removes potentially a Town PR. That removes someone that could of been voted for and then used as VCA. That removes a lot.
So like... this set up is what 3 v 10 right? So that means like a "goooood player" day 1 has (and yes this is arbitrary) but let's say like a "3/8" chance of hitting skum (remove self and remove someone that "must be town").
Especially with a Doctor in play for skum. Brings the whole "was I JKd, was that the JK target, was that the mafia skum target" thing into play... which is just gonna out the JK most the time.
Now all of that is from my POV and I got no idea really how people play and meta and all that, so that obviously is a factor I cannot take into consideration.
Then there is the added value of *not* offing any town, then getting to a more limited field and using the power then with more information.
Like, what is the value on Day 2 lets say, of having two town kills at night when we don't know the next day who killed who? Will it be useful down the road? - yep! Will it be more useful than not having that other town player alive? - nope!-
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UglyDuck Goon
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VOTE: fuaIn post 75, fua wrote:
Why not?In post 56, Dwlee99 wrote:Even if he isn't real don't shoot him @vig
Not a good idea
If I were a vig I wouldn't shoot NM tonight
VOTE: ugly duck-
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UglyDuck Goon
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Difference between the vig shot and a lynch (are we still using lynch on this site here? sorry if not) is that it forces people to cast a vote. They are both more likely to find Town on Day 1/Night 1, but with the vig kill... it is just what that person thought, and they are confirmed town on flip so it gives us no re read potential. A mislynch otoh, especially on day 1, can be extremely valuable.In post 74, Dwlee99 wrote:Town than scum*-
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UglyDuck Goon
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Pretty much. Both the vote patterns that could of been taken by that player, and the vote patterns that could of been taken against that player. The latter obviously being more beneficial after a flip (assuming they are town), but yeah... both parts.In post 83, JacksonVirgo wrote:Are you saying that Vigilante shouldn't shoot early-game because it will give us no information based on vote patterns etc?
also the unlikely hood to find skum with a shot Night 1. I should be more specific on that also - I mean like almost exactly Night 1. I still lean bad idea later nights until it is obviously good, but on Night 1 it is simply a gamble.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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what would you like to talk about?In post 84, Ythan wrote:2021 and we're talking about how vigs work.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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Disagree.In post 90, Not_Mafia wrote:
Well then you're anti-townIn post 59, UglyDuck wrote:
I don't do RVS.In post 33, fua wrote:
Alice, Uglyduck, and Jackson are the only three that came in and posted without giving a vote. Could it be that they don’t want anything to be traced back to them?In post 31, AliceK wrote:
That's tempting, but I think we can also wait for him to be replaced out.In post 28, Three wrote:Can we flash wagon Not Mafia?
Not posted yet: Andres, Kyouko, Not_Mafia, and MargotRosa.
VOTE: Uglyduck[/c]
Discuss.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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If they actually answer you I will clarify. Although, it probably won't be needed if they answer you.In post 87, fua wrote:
Would you mind clarifying, please?In post 80, UglyDuck wrote:
VOTE: fuaIn post 75, fua wrote:
Why not?In post 56, Dwlee99 wrote:Even if he isn't real don't shoot him @vig
Not a good idea
If I were a vig I wouldn't shoot NM tonight
VOTE: ugly duck-
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UglyDuck Goon
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1. Wrong. Ducks are beautiful in mating seasonIn post 91, Not_Mafia wrote:
Omg kill it with fire ZZZZZzzzzzzzzZZzzzzzzz, get this MU shit out of here please, I can't take itIn post 72, UglyDuck wrote:
I mean.... that is arbitrary.In post 71, Dwlee99 wrote:I don't want to bog down the thread talking about this but the idea is if you're on, say, 6 - 2, and you lim someone, you enter night 5 - 2 (or 6 - 1), and then you end night on odds (scum kill + vigilante kill) giving you, say 3 - 2, which is an extra town kill than if the vigilante didn't shoot and you entered the next day 4 - 2 (which is still ELO of some form w/ or w/o the vig shot)
The fact is that when you shoot at a point in the game when you do not have a realistic potential to have a good grasp on who could be skum, it is highly more likely that you shoot town than skum. That removes a town vote for all following days that would of otherwise been there. That removes potentially a Town PR. That removes someone that could of been voted for and then used as VCA. That removes a lot.
So like... this set up is what 3 v 10 right? So that means like a "goooood player" day 1 has (and yes this is arbitrary) but let's say like a "3/8" chance of hitting skum (remove self and remove someone that "must be town").
Especially with a Doctor in play for skum. Brings the whole "was I JKd, was that the JK target, was that the mafia skum target" thing into play... which is just gonna out the JK most the time.
Now all of that is from my POV and I got no idea really how people play and meta and all that, so that obviously is a factor I cannot take into consideration.
Then there is the added value of *not* offing any town, then getting to a more limited field and using the power then with more information.
Like, what is the value on Day 2 lets say, of having two town kills at night when we don't know the next day who killed who? Will it be useful down the road? - yep! Will it be more useful than not having that other town player alive? - nope!
VOTE: UglyFuck
2. what is MU shit?-
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UglyDuck Goon
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100% against not eliminating, just to be clear.In post 96, AliceK wrote:I think UglyDuck is Town, he is pushing a controversial opinion (not shooting, not liming as well?) which he should know could open him for attacks. I don't think as scum he would draw attention to himself like that.-
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Give me a reason to. I am open to it. But I need a reason.In post 113, fua wrote:
I think you should do it anyway.In post 109, UglyDuck wrote:
If they actually answer you I will clarify. Although, it probably won't be needed if they answer you.In post 87, fua wrote:
Would you mind clarifying, please?In post 80, UglyDuck wrote:
VOTE: fuaIn post 75, fua wrote:
Why not?In post 56, Dwlee99 wrote:Even if he isn't real don't shoot him @vig
Not a good idea
If I were a vig I wouldn't shoot NM tonight
VOTE: ugly duck-
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UglyDuck Goon
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As it is being talked about now - this is the general reasoning of why I did not like you asking dweelee why they would not shoot the claimed Vig. Seemed like a lazy question and talking about something that should not be discussed.In post 168, fua wrote:That’s a good point, but I don’t think any VT would claim to be Vig normally since it means they’re probably going to eat a vig bullet at night.
As it has already been discussed, and I do not think it
Essentially, Mafia has a Doctor. If NM is a VT fake claiming Vig to draw a kill, it would assuredly not be from the Vig, because if NM is mafia, NM is going to be protected by the doctor at night. Cool. Except essentially when vig shoots him and there is no death from the vig.... then they are skum. So that would be a horrible play from Mafia.
Or this dude could just be Vig. Or this dude could be VT. Those are the options that mafia would have to be looking at if NM is not mafia (ha).
Since we have a set up that makes a VT claim as Vig actually pretty viable as a good option, I did not like you trying to expand the convo on the topic.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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- You pretty much blindly accept they are telling the truth.In post 52, Three wrote:Bad idea. Scum have a Doc, if we call out the target and you would hit scum they just protect them. If you would hit town they can still protect them for the WIFOM. And if you're fake claiming Vig but you're still town, they can Watch your target to see if you actually are Vig.
Just shoot the scummiest slot tonight so scum can't anticipate who to target and just default to protecting themselves.
- Then you say he is either telling the truth, or if he is fake claiming the correct option is obviously to have the real vig shoot him. Which is just... horrible. Like planting the concept that the only 2 options are Skum or Vig is just a bad mind set.In post 55, Three wrote:Nobody should publically CC. NM gets naturally resolved tonight. If he's true claiming then mafia deals with him. If he's fake claiming then the real Vig's bullet will be the CC.
- And then there is this case on Alice, which, while I don't really agree with the extremeness of it, at least it is a case. But then you go ahead again and put absolute faith in the fact that NM is the Vig. And you also set up a situation that like literally no one as town should EVER be confident in a game this size on Day 1 to state - "If I get eliminated then eliminate this person". That is just absurd.I'm not pretending anything, but nice assumption. You still lied and made a hypocritical accusation and you're trying to dance around the fact. Good bye Alice.
@NM:Shoot Alice if town does some dumb shit again and votes me out first.
1) Why are you so confident NM is the vig?
2) Why would you not consider NM being VT?
3) Other than the obvious OMGUS, why are you so hellbent on Alice?
*apologies to all for the shitty quoting, still getting used to the site*-
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I answered this a while back. And yes, at the time it did have to do with someone answering it.In post 257, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
What's this about? Why does your answer depend on Dwlee answering fua? I can't think of what Dwlee may have to say in response to fua that would warrant your vote on fua. Feels like you're making an appearance of being deep with your reasoning but there's no way to bridge that gapIn post 109, UglyDuck wrote:
If they actually answer you I will clarify. Although, it probably won't be needed if they answer you.In post 87, fua wrote:
Would you mind clarifying, please?In post 80, UglyDuck wrote:
VOTE: fuaIn post 75, fua wrote:
Why not?In post 56, Dwlee99 wrote:Even if he isn't real don't shoot him @vig
Not a good idea
If I were a vig I wouldn't shoot NM tonight
VOTE: ugly duck-
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Quote 1: I acknowledge it after the fact. This was supposed to represent a chronological timeline.In post 276, Three wrote:
...Except I don't, which you acknowledge.In post 253, UglyDuck wrote:
- You pretty much blindly accept they are telling the truth.In post 52, Three wrote:Bad idea. Scum have a Doc, if we call out the target and you would hit scum they just protect them. If you would hit town they can still protect them for the WIFOM. And if you're fake claiming Vig but you're still town, they can Watch your target to see if you actually are Vig.
Just shoot the scummiest slot tonight so scum can't anticipate who to target and just default to protecting themselves.
If he's VT fake claiming Vig that is just a worse outcome. I'm not "planting" a concept, I'm assuming NM isn't flat out game throwing and fake claiming Vig as VT. If this shit happens two games in a row then town is just doomed.
- Then you say he is either telling the truth, or if he is fake claiming the correct option is obviously to have the real vig shoot him. Which is just... horrible. Like planting the concept that the only 2 options are Skum or Vig is just a bad mind set.In post 55, Three wrote:Nobody should publically CC. NM gets naturally resolved tonight. If he's true claiming then mafia deals with him. If he's fake claiming then the real Vig's bullet will be the CC.
Furthermore, why aren't you considering that maybe I could want scum to waste their Watch on NM?
Who the fuck cares? The Vig decides their own action. I'm just saying what I want them to do.
- And then there is this case on Alice, which, while I don't really agree with the extremeness of it, at least it is a case. But then you go ahead again and put absolute faith in the fact that NM is the Vig. And you also set up a situation that like literally no one as town should EVER be confident in a game this size on Day 1 to state - "If I get eliminated then eliminate this person". That is just absurd.I'm not pretending anything, but nice assumption. You still lied and made a hypocritical accusation and you're trying to dance around the fact. Good bye Alice.
@NM:Shoot Alice if town does some dumb shit again and votes me out first.
Why aren't you questioning Alice? She said I'm the scummiest person in the game. Why is it not an issue for her to want me voted out, but if I want her shot suddenly that's just too far? This is such a weird defense of Alice that excuses her behavior while villainizing my own.
1) I'm not? You even admitted I'm not lol.1) Why are you so confident NM is the vig?
2) Why would you not consider NM being VT?
3) Other than the obvious OMGUS, why are you so hellbent on Alice?
2) I considered it. But then I decided I really don't want to deal with this game if we have VTs fake claiming roles and fucking over actual PRsagain.
3) Hellbent? Dude nothing's even happening this game and I'm trying to play the game and get reads. Did you prefer it when we were doing fuck all and extending the RVS stage halfway into the first day?
Quote 2: So, you just straight up think NM must be vig or skum then? Before I had not been considering the Watcher target concept, now I am assuming you didn't because you stated you don't think he is.
Quote 3: I care. Because it is an odd statement to make - it was mainly about the fact that you directed it specifically at NM, but if you only think they are skum or Vig, then that answers that. And I am not questioning Alice because I am questioning you. Little point in doing both at the same time. And the difference between pushing an elimination vs asking for vig shot direction should be clear.
Quote 4:
1) Fair enough. I was referencing the first quote, but since then you had said more.
2) However, this kind of dismisses all of your arguments about you "considering it"
3) Nope. Hate RVS. Just feel like your case is super OMGUS-y.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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By my count I believe they are only at E-2? Not E-1? I could be missing a vote though.
Not that that changes much, just wanted to point it out.
I am not a huge fan of the current leading wagon. They have not said much, so I do not have anything really to base it on based on their play. But I do think it got run up, and skum is likely sitting idle because "it is left as the only viable option".-
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OK.
Dwlee - I disagree. I think that it is far more likely that they are town and skum is sitting wherever they are happy that there has been no traction elsewhere.
What is your thought process behind skum just bailing like this? You think it is intentional yes? There was no case to be made on Moz, they had done nothing. Why would they panic and bail like that?-
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Was thinking that myself. IDK. Both I assume, but that is just based on odds.In post 348, Dwlee99 wrote:Idk
Scum be scummin
Do you think scum are chilling on or off wagon or both-
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Why?In post 349, Dwlee99 wrote:Fua is probably scum here hm-
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In post 451, fua wrote:Since we don’t have much time left in the day anyway and there probably won’t be a counterwagon on the scum, I’m the Town Jailkeeper. Sheep me on Kyoko because they’re clearly obvious scumming and should be taken out. Their post is either grasping at straws to try to reinforce my wagon or calling me stupid enough to openly claim scum out in public, which I don’t appreciate.
Mafia will never kill me and I’ll be miselimmed later anyways. Better to force mafia to kill the suspicious slot and remove the utility of their strongman (if Kyoko isn’t their strongman anyways) than lose two townies.
Why claim?
Why mafia not kill you?-
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UglyDuck Goon
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- Who is townread enough to have them not kill you?In post 487, fua wrote:In post 485, JacksonVirgo wrote:Kyouko just isn't scum, or if they are the current reasonings I am hearing is nothing scummy in particular and feels awfully like scum pushed bullshit or cannot be backed up because it holds no actual weight.
1. We have a day and a half left to reach a consensus on someone and I don’t want to be forced to claim later when there’s less time to sort things out. Also because I want Kyoko dead.In post 475, UglyDuck wrote:In post 451, fua wrote:Since we don’t have much time left in the day anyway and there probably won’t be a counterwagon on the scum, I’m the Town Jailkeeper. Sheep me on Kyoko because they’re clearly obvious scumming and should be taken out. Their post is either grasping at straws to try to reinforce my wagon or calling me stupid enough to openly claim scum out in public, which I don’t appreciate.
Mafia will never kill me and I’ll be miselimmed later anyways. Better to force mafia to kill the suspicious slot and remove the utility of their strongman (if Kyoko isn’t their strongman anyways) than lose two townies.
Why claim?
Why mafia not kill you?
2. Because it’s objectively better for scum to kill a townread player than a scummy player like me.
- NM is claimed vig. You have claimed JK. They always shoot you. TRs aside.-
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I did indeed. Makes more sense. Still not sure why you felt the urgency to claim though.In post 497, fua wrote:…I think you misinterpreted what I said.If I didn’t claim, I wouldn’t be killed at night. Of course I’m going to be killed now. I’d be stupid to think otherwise.-
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ha.In post 584, Not_Mafia wrote:
Because Three just isn't enoughIn post 583, Three wrote:Why the fuck was the immediate reaction to me saying not to split the votes was for everyone to randomly start a fourth wagon-
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In post 595, Almost50 wrote:I'm not the one who outed two bloody PRs on D1` you fucking morons. Either the whole town is playing really bad, or the two fucking PRs' play has been pathetic it got them both wagoned. Get a fucking clue.
Who outted PRs? NM rainbow danced his in like page 2 and Fua pre-maturely claimed.-
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I believe my vote should be on ssbm.In post 643, LicketyQuickety wrote:-
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Who do you think is skum and why?In post 708, Almost50 wrote:Who do you think nis Scum and why?-
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Don't understand why you would think that? Seems pretty straight forward to me. It is a list of the 4 people that put a vote on what we now know to be town and then just sat there the entire game even when it got close to deadline.In post 720, Dwlee99 wrote:
Uhh this looks like it was meant for scum PTIn post 716, UglyDuck wrote:RCEnigma - 4: Save The Dragons, Andresvmb, Ythan, ILUVYTHAN
+ Almost is where I am at today.
VOTE: Ugly duck
- Dragons literally did nothing. Just voted for the RC slot and then checked in every few days.
- Ythan literally did nothing. Voted for DW then switched to the RC slot and came back every once and a while to grab top page post.
- Luv did whatever is right above "literally nothing". Followed Ythan DW to RC slot... and then sat there the whole game.
- Andre comes into the game and lands on the RC slot. Now they do have plenty of content, but it is all either focused on the RC slot or defense of their finding the RC slot skummy.
So yeah... 4 people with camp votes on a Town!Wagon that was, up until the very end, absolutely an option to go off instead of SSBM (or A50). The reason A50 is on the list is on the off chance that we super caught skum off guard and had 2/3 red wagons running - though, I do not actually find that very likely.
I still have to finish going through all of it with RC colored in green, but it feels like a good place to start.
Why do you disagree?-
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Illuminating for more that just that. We now know for certain that RCE was town. Which, imo at least, awards a decent town point pool distributed over those that were unwilling to leave SSBM for RC and the pool that came from RC to SSBM towards the end of the day.In post 773, Andresvmb wrote:And shooting the other wagon isn’t a bad shot. It’s actually quite illuminating. I also needed to know how off I was.-
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yeah. you haven't given a reason not to be.In post 846, Save The Dragons wrote:In post 826, Save The Dragons wrote:is there a reason i'm being rung up-
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temptingIn post 843, Three wrote:
Yes.In post 842, UglyDuck wrote:Three - yes I know. I am just asking based on everyone being like "they will hammer anything". As in - That was gonna happen no matter who it was, or no?
We can test it if you'd like by putting StD at E-1.-
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fair enough.In post 852, Save The Dragons wrote:
i answered every serious question asked of me and so far no one's really given a reason why they're voting meIn post 847, UglyDuck wrote:
yeah. you haven't given a reason not to be.In post 846, Save The Dragons wrote:In post 826, Save The Dragons wrote:is there a reason i'm being rung up
I am suspicious of you because of lack of activity and wagon placement. Could say the same for the Ythan's - which is why I am not voting you.
The problem with your approach right now is that you are acknowledging that you have not done anything day 1 in this game. So when you ask people "what have I done that is skummy?" you know you will not get an answer... because you didn't do anything.-
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Issue with that is it isolates the pool down to 2 people. kind of makes reading back to find who is skum later difficult if you just have one person decide where we look.In post 869, Aaron wrote:I've been caught up for a while but don't really know what to think. I'm legitimately worried that if I scum read another person, i'll end up accidentally revealing all of the town prs. I'm kind of interested in just having Andres choose two people to elim (the vote and vig)
I mean we, or I at least, am pretty set on them being town, so we can trust their opinion/read... but it is still just an opinion/read of one person.-
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Skum would of had to consolidate onto a wagon to protect SSBM. Why start the Almost wagon instead of just going for RC?In post 927, Andresvmb wrote:From my perspective, JV needs to die, and AliceK needs to die. But I have a really strong feeling the game won’t end there. Okay, so say one of those two is Town (if they’re both Town that’s really a royal screw up). Where else should the Town look? I wouldn’t consider DW unless something dramatic happens, though I certainly want to see them effort. And I’m thinking UglyDuck’s vote is pivotal, and A50 was voted as an alternative in a rush as the Scum was getting executed (so more often than not they’re a Town counterwagon to Scum). I’ve explained my read on STD. So who does that leave? Well, one of the Ythan’s could be Scum (one is actually trying, the other one clearly is just coasting). Or it could be you, or maybe Three if you squint your eyes hard enough (I’m not seeing it). There’s just not that many choices. And Three’s point about Alice’s vote switch there pinged me super hard as well.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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You are... correct. Was being lazy and just looking at VCs.In post 933, Almost50 wrote:
SCUMMM.. did NOTTT.. start my wagon. CONFIRMED TOWN FUA did. THAT is why it was easy for them to hop on it instead, hoping Town will also follow Fua there.In post 929, UglyDuck wrote:Skum would of had to consolidate onto a wagon to protect SSBM. Why start the Almost wagon instead of just going for RC?
As three said - Fua, JV, RC, NM, A50, Three
That is - Town - UNK - Town - Assumed Town - UNK/ProbTown - UNK/ProbTown
A50 is prob town because they were a wagon at the end of the day as an alt to skum!SSBM
Three is prob town because they were originator of the SSBM push and left said A50 wagon to stick to SSBM.
RC is Town because Town
NM is Town because for now it hurts my head to consider why skum would claim Vig like that. Oh, and they hammered Skum.
Then obviously after that Alice joins and stays there. Which is my only concern with the JV/Alice thing. When people started leaving the A50 wagon it made the only two viable wagons RCE and SSBM. ANDDDD SSBM was not voting yet. Why would skum not hop to RCE when people were leaving to try and defend?-
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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What made them more skummy than yourself all of a sudden?
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UglyDuck Goon
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what happened to agreeing with me about JV?In post 1013, Dwlee99 wrote:We should flip one of Alice/STD and then on a green flip shoot the other?-
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UglyDuck Goon
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Why would I try to cast shade on you?In post 1003, JacksonVirgo wrote:I have already explained my Aaron read, not repeating myself because
1) You only asked me to shade/discredit me
2) If you actually read the game you would know-
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UglyDuck Goon
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UglyDuck Goon
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I actually think it must be a lim/shot on Alice/JV here.
JV's attitude towards the game is just awful if they are town (no offense, just peacing out, self voting, and then returning at eod doesn't leave a lot of inspiration to be had).
Alice's reads list leaves JV as town and STD as the only skum read. And now there are people pivoting to STD/Alice instead of JV/Alice.-
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UglyDuck Goon
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