Open 84 - Fire and Ice Mafia - Game Over!

[armlx]

Hi.

[armlx]

Forgot to watch topic this one. I'm here.

I need to re-examine the wagons so far at a less sleeping time.

[armlx]

Something is up with this Joubert wagon.

[armlx]

My feelings are that Joubert didn't really do that much (well, up until his last post) and his wagon went way too fast to be 100% legit.

Basically, what Ged said.

[armlx]

Vote Ged

Quick hammer turnarounds like that are beyond scummy.

[armlx]

Ok.

Chubbs wagon is kinda odd to me. Don't see much basis. Plus Ged is voting him.

mik5 is definitely on my suspects list based on position on the Joubert wagon which went WAY too fast, but isn't really at the top as it appears he actually tried to make the wagon proceed in a normal fashion.

Rofl is being rofl, not really a read either way.

Orange Penguin is someone else I'm looking at. See the reasoning on mik but without the redeeming factor.

[armlx]

Joubert (8):

roflcopter,

forbiddanlight, orangepenguin, mik5,

Snix, Eldritch Lord,

Alabaska J, Geddingsworth

Geddingsworth (7): Scigatt, armlx, roflcopter,

Alabaska J

, ChubbsMcLubbs,

Snix, Eldritch Lord

Green = town, bold = I notice a trend. And if you look at their posts, talk about massive connection.....

Vote Snix, FOS EL

Snix hopped off Chubbs to vote EL day 2, hence the reason he gets a vote (wagon hopping and what not).

[armlx]

Chubbs, those two have been responsible for turning both wagons into quick lynches so far.

Also, Snix's "cautious" attitude was gone D2 until the Ged wagon happened.

---

Snix (1): armlx

Not Voting (8): ChubbsMcLubbs, Eldritch Lord, forbiddanlight, mik5, orangepenguin, Scigatt, Snix, Sun Tzu

[armlx]

And the distancing between the two begins....

[armlx]

This game does need to slow down and provide more content as opposed to quicklynches.

This is funny given you quick hammered one of the people and were the L-1 vote on the other.

[armlx]

This game does need to slow down and provide more content as opposed to quicklynches.

This is funny given you quick hammered one of the people and were the L-1 vote on the other.

It's impossible for people to change their perception on matters regarding the game. Oh wait, that's only if you live in a world of absolutes. Welcome to the real world Armlx, where dynamic situations mean dynamic reasoning.

Because clearly so much has changed that quick hammering was good yesterday but not today.

[armlx]

Can you tell us why Snix is scummier than EL, even though EL has done most of the blatant following?

I was looking at his swap from Chubbs to Ged D2 out of nowhere. I could lynch either of them though at this point, and the level of barning EL has admitted to today makes him look a lot worse then earlier.

[armlx]

EL, I don't buy the fact you trusted those enough to lynch someone that fast.

[armlx]

Anyway. The D1 Chubbs-wagon was pretty lame and I don't know why there was still even the slightest hint of it D2. It pretty much just started from a string of overreactions. But most of those on that wagon are dead now, with the exception of forbiddanlight, whose suspicion of Chubbs, I noticed, completely evaporated D2, as she shifts from apparently having Chubbs as a second suspect to Joubert, followed by this as (I think) her first post D2:

Snix was on it D2.

[armlx]

Cephrir, what are your thoughts on Snix?

[armlx]

I want to hear mik's response to your accusations, but I have some issues with what you have said so far.

[armlx]

Cephrir, I simply have 2 questions for you.

How many times has the average player voted in this game?

Are you sure you meant he considered rofl as a serious suspect?

[armlx]

I see you got my points. I agree on the Joubert vote thing. Its probably one of the top 5 scummiest things I see in the game so far.

Mod, can we get a vote count?

[armlx]

Didn't really find anything that was too suspicious in the last several pages. I did find it odd when Eldritch FOSed me for voicing my suspicions about Sun Tzu. Maximizing the amount of active people in a game is a good way to find scum, so going against that seems odd. It was slightly aggressive, but not overly-scummy. I'm going to read some of the earlier thread, to hopefully find something more useful.

Do you find EL or Snix scummy for the reasons I have posted?

[armlx]

FoS: Mik5 Lurker-hunting is always a last resort in my book--lurker scum don't change the game much unless they go around tossing votes on bandwagons etc.

The FoS in question. I agree with you EL on lurker hunting being meh (the mod should act first, then the players if that fails).

[armlx]

I never said don't vote, what I meant was don't quick lynch=don't hammer, straightaway. That doesn't mean I'm not going to vote for someone who I find scummy atm.

QFT.

[armlx]

Speaking of which, now that the ongoing game in which I actually already knew EL's alignment is over. That he's being logical in this game may or may not be a tell, as he wasn't in the other game. The issue with him following Snix isn't all that unexpected given that they apparently know each other. At least he's not shouting that Snix is town yet.

Agree. The game was Strawberry Mafia modded by klebian, BTW, and I'm unsure what kind of conclusions to draw from it.

[armlx]

Lets see how long we can derail the game. Shall we?

How is this discussion derailing the game?

He was right though.

How is that relevant?

[armlx]

Meta arguments are best at pointing out explicit scum tells or showing how a normally scummy action is normal for a given player. Beyond that it gets kinda iffy.

[armlx]

Prods would be nice. Still like voting for EL/Snix.

[armlx]

This is obnoxious. I would have switched my vote to EL a long time ago in order to move things along a bit if we weren't at 5-2-2.

[armlx]

EL, how about instead of responding to the irrelevant points, respond to the ones that matter to the game.

[armlx]

Unofficial Vote Count.

Snix- 1 (armlx)
EL- 2 (FL, OP)
mik- 1 (Cephrir)
FL- 1 (EL)

5 to lynch, if your name isn't here I did not see a vote from you.

I haven't seen anything to convince me otherwise about El/Snix yet.

[armlx]

@armlx: Why do you prefer Snix to EL?

His stance towards Chubbs.

[armlx]

That stance being?

You voting him, and you auto voting him D2 only to jump on Ged to put him at L-1.

[armlx]

Just so you know,

I will be away from Thursday till Sunday

.

[armlx]

And the geds wagon had reason behind it, most of which was put there by you.

Reasoning to straight up quick lynch him though? I don't think so.

[armlx]

Well, you had every opportunity to remove your vote, why vote if you think a person isn't worthy of being lynched?

This is false. Look at the thread, look at my posting records. I went off line at about 3 pm on the day the lynch happened with 2 votes on Ged. I came back 24 or so hours later to a Ged lynch. I actually had no time to change my mind, and pretty much no one did thanks to you + Snix.

I find your build-up and then accusation of Snix just as scummy as Snix's actual vote-flop.

Why? I am scummy for noticing someone was late on both QL wagons?

[armlx]

Armlx--don't vote unless you're prepared to lynch, that was the point, don't dodge it. Especially if you think that a lynch is possible and you know you're going to be gone for a good period of time. Besides, your "I wasn't there" argument doesn't hold up, you could've been /threadstalking. Sorry, I don't buy it.

Your vote counts toward the final count just like everyone elses'--granted the QLs were a mistake, but they WERE partially your fault--stop dodging that. It seems you're getting more and more defensive--its only one FoS.

EL, I was prepared to lynch, but usually there's actually a discussion sequence that corresponds to the lynch.

And gone for a long period of time? 24 hours. That is all I was gone for.

Your "thread stalking" argument is bull shit. I'd have to be watching this thread for 12ish hours without posting anywhere else on site.

My vote was partially responsible for the LYNCH, but not the QUICK. That is your and Snix's fault, hence my vote.

Your attempting to paint my responses as scummy using the term "defensive" is also noted.

[armlx]

You can vote to put the pressure on, but people know you're voting to put the pressure on, either they will be lynched by scum (if they aren't) or they won't be lynched (if they are)--and don't feel the pressure. The more votes you pile on, the closer you are bringing them to lynch.

Except if you don't say till after it is a pressure vote by demonstrating intent with actions. Then the vote legitimately scares people.

And usually people don't just lynch out of nowhere, so the part about being lynched off a "pressure" vote is dumb.

[armlx]

Obviously they do, since its happened twice in this game.

Which is why I am attacking those people, because their behavior is abnormal and EXTREMELY anti-town.

[armlx]

Unvote, Vote EL

This is going nowhere. Maybe this will prompt action.

[armlx]

damn you, you beat me to it

Lol.

That said, good to see you showing restraint today.

[armlx]

Still ambivalent towards this wagon.

What wagons would you not be ambivalent towards?

[armlx]

a mik5 one, right?

I was hoping he could answer first.

[armlx]

Basically. Oh, and I would also not be ambivalent about wagons on players I consider protown. Obviously.

Fair nuff. Mik the only one your would straight up endorse a wagon on?

[armlx]

What do you think is lacking in the EL or Snix case? We have had minimal discussion at best before today, so vote patterns are pretty key.

[armlx]

Chubbs, Sciagatt, and mik need to be seen to.

[armlx]

Also, the Snix case is lamer because I don't think being followed as as good a tell as following; in order for it to apply to Snix both must be scum.

What about his vote of Chubbs?

[armlx]

Chubbs, for the love of all things good and holy use quote tags. That was painful.

2nd.

[armlx]

I'm interested in playing, but I've said all I feel is relevant for the time being.

[armlx]

I believe thats L-1.

[armlx]

Also, not surprised.

---

Eldritch Lord (4): forbiddanlight, orangepenguin, armlx, Snix
forbiddanlight (2): Eldritch Lord, ChubbsMcLubbs
mik5 (1): Cephrir

Not Voting (2): mik5, Scigatt

[armlx]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

[armlx]

Myself and Snix in that order have voted EL since the last VC, and Chubbs voted fl.

[armlx]

The odds are pretty good EL would flip scum

EL isnt a top suspect to me either.

Explain this contradiction Chubbs.

[armlx]

I'm posting this in all my games. My computer power cord just broke again, same issue as last time. I'm going to be on LA for a week or two while I wait for a new one to arrive.

[armlx]

I don't want this game to be abandoned

This.

[armlx]

I don't get what the point of you lasts posts was....

---

Eldritch Lord (3): forbiddanlight, armlx, Snix
forbiddanlight (2): Eldritch Lord, ChubbsMcLubbs
mik5 (1): Cephrir

Not Voting (3): orangepenguin, mik5, Scigatt

[armlx]

Yay, the game isn't dead (or at least if it is its not the mod's fault)

[armlx]

Xtoxm, bodyguard = doc in this game. And don't BM the thread plz.

[armlx]

Why would you assume it was anything other then LyLo now, 5 town, 4 mafia that can't cross kill....

[armlx]

Am I the only one who realized xtoxm said EL was scum, then asked if Eldritch Lord was EL?

[armlx]

What do you interpret that as then?

[armlx]

Fair enough xtoxm. The ? just looked like it ended a sentence, hence the confusion.

[armlx]

Xtoxm, I know two off the top of my head (EL + Snix), I have to reread to see who else.

[armlx]

Actually, my Snix case also has to do with him rushing Ged to L-1 and his opportunistic swap from Chubbs D2.

[armlx]

Uhhh, only LoS's that rank the non-scum considered people from most to least town really do that.

[armlx]

Yeah, but thats pretty irrel in the context of us knowing who is being suspected, especially at LyLo. Also, they can't figure out if someone just missed a list.

[armlx]

I agree with FL here. standard "that means nothing" applies.

[armlx]

I don't even understand why he would be "cleared" to begin with....

[armlx]

So.... are we waiting on anyone?

[armlx]

I mean, has anyone failed to comment on the EL wagon and who else they think is scummy?

[armlx]

So, are we still just waiting on Jenethron?

[armlx]

We've gone from gun-ho town to scared shitless town.

No, we've gone from gun-ho to game stalled by lack of mod + needing replacements.

[armlx]

See above, and why unvote Penguin?

[armlx]

I would not mind if the game was abandoned at this rate.

[armlx]

I don't know if an EL lynch would even solve the issue this game has. Maybe a month ago, not now.

[armlx]

So, EL and Chubbs are both inactive (neither has posted since the 13th), so presumably they don't care either way. That leaves

Pro-abandon- 3 (xtoxm, armlx, Cephrir)
Anti-abandon- 0

Not stated- 4 (OP, FL, Snix, Jenethron)

[armlx]

See above.

[armlx]

I don't really check the mafia forums that often...

/facepalm

To be fair, it helps that 1 inactive is going to be lynched.

Looks like most people wouldn't mind continuing. I really don't care either way.

[armlx]

(I did pm the mod, but got no answer.)

If the mod isn't responding to people wanting to replace in, I want no part in this.

[armlx]

There's also something odd about Orange Penguin. I'll expand on that tomorrow.

Tomorrow as in IRL tomorrow or in game? If the later, why wait?

[armlx]

I'd like to know- If EL is scum, who do you think is scum with him? Who are the other two scum?

Is this a general question to everyone? It probably should be.

[armlx]

I can agree one Snix, EL, and OP being scummy, but a third I have to go back and look at (I know, I said that when xtoxm asked, then the game died....)

[armlx]

sekinj replaced Jenethron who replaced mik.

There's definitely a lot of slanting in that case. I can see EL/Snix + Mik/OP.

Cephrir, thoughts given your earlier issues with mik?

[armlx]

Eh... pops up most gets a little sketchy. I say we look at the groups in general that pop up more often, not a specific one necessarily.

[armlx]

Unlike everyone else, I'm not sure EL and Snix are a pair. I think EL is likely scum but would give only a slightly higher than normal chance of Snix being his buddy.

The sekinj/OP pair is basically a result of process of elimination I think, since not much really connects them. Both of them are definitely suspects for me but I'm not sure whether they are paired together.

I would still like to lynch sekinj. Mostly because of mik but she's not really helping herself much. That would be the only wagon I could really get behind 100%.

I could see almost anyone as the fourth scum, but off the top of my head FL and Snix would be my best guesses. If it's Snix he is likely with EL, if not then pair guesses would only be wild speculation for me.

This post is pretty win.

[armlx]

You are basically twisting everything there to look scummy.

[armlx]

You are attacking menial issues + the fact she agrees with the EL/Snix connection....

---

Eldritch Lord (3): armlx, Snix, orangepenguin
forbiddanlight (2): Eldritch Lord, ChubbsMcLubbs
orangepenguin (2): sekinj, forbiddanlight
sekinj (1): Cephrir
Snix (1): m4yhem

Not Voting (0):

[armlx]

EL was kinda a newb, but that's a lot of WIFOM there M4yhem.

I could see EL and Snix as scum separately though, you make a point. I really just think both are scum.

[armlx]

I still support a Snix lynch.

[armlx]

@ arm - you support Snix lynch, but you like EL better right now? that is why you are voting EL?

Its because EL was acting dumb under pressure and was more of the opportunist by hopping on behind Snix's votes. That said, Snix's behavior re: Chubbs was scummy as well.

Basically, I think they both are and don't have a strong preference to who is lynched.

[armlx]

Unvote, Vote Snix

He has more votes.

[armlx]

Um, he had two (Mayhem, sek), the same as Eldritch Lord, until you voted.

Yup. 2 with mine < 3 with mine.

[armlx]

You also quick wagoned 2 people.

Just saying. Its not like you agreed with the reasons at the start of the wagon, it was rather later on that you pushed on them, which has more to do with the speed of both of them.

[armlx]

Snix, I presented the case almost 4 months ago. You are only starting to complain / appeal to emotion about it now?

[armlx]

You mean L-1, right?

M4yhem, sekinj, myself, you. 5 to lynch.

---

forbiddanlight (2): Eldritch Lord, ChubbsMcLubbs
orangepenguin (2): sekinj, forbiddanlight
sekinj (2): Cephrir, Snix
Snix (2): m4yhem, armlx
Eldritch Lord (1): orangepenguin

Not Voting (0):

[armlx]

5/9 is a majority. Math = tech.

[armlx]

Does it matter when we wait?

I'm not going to answer any questions regarding the condoning of a hammer, and neither should anyone else. If you are going to hammer, don't try to push off the decision on someone else.

[armlx]

I think you can count on the fact everyone voting Snix now doesn't have much more to say.

[armlx]

Well, as per yesterday, Vote Eldritch Lord. I want to lynch sekinj, but I also want to decrease the kills per night. Pretty sure that EL fits the second ice mafiate more than anything. sekinj is likely fire mafia.

Vote FL

Wow. OBV scum. EL is obv Ice scum with Snix, but we either lynch Fire Mafia today or lose. I see you are opting for option 2, and the only reasonable assumption is you are Fire scum pushing the "mis"lynch for the win.

[armlx]

I'm leaning armlx because of his insistence on that other pair. It may be right, but it's also a good distraction from fire mafia.

Elaborate plz.

And OP, its 4 to lynch. 1 vote + 2 Fire Votes would equal 3.

[armlx]

For the purposes of today and tonight, the remaining Ice Mafia is "town". Their goal is to lynch "scum" (Fire Mafia) and make tomorrow 3-1-1, giving themself an out.

The focus was PURELY on another mafia rather than all the mafias.

The focus was on 2 obv scum..... I don't see what you would be expecting different between townie and mafia in that scenario.

[armlx]

I'd expect a lot more effort to also try to find the other scum so we didn't end up in this situation.

I'm pretty sure we were in this situation regardless yesterday if last night went down how it did. We had to hope for at least 1 of the kills to fail.

[armlx]

Uhhhh....

Vote stands.

[armlx]

Though, if you ARE townie it will likely matter in taking down a fire mafia, which you would not accomplish by attempting to vote me.

Already with the appeal to emotion.

[armlx]

So....

Aren't there more people who should be posting?

[armlx]

M4 and K7 - are you guys ready to give any input?

This.

[armlx]

btw im vanilla tryna read back on EL and see why people think im mafia.

Quick hammer of Ged, quick wagon of D1 lynch.

[armlx]

So.....


Whats happening here?

[armlx]

Still waiting on K7 and m4yh3m to post something relevant. Nothing has changed IMO.

That said, OP's last post is LEVELS of scummitude ahead of what I expected to happen.

[armlx]

@arm: i bare my soul.. confess my sins.. .and ntohing has changed IYO?!?!

I didn't think you were the best lynch before, and I still don't now.

[armlx]

Uhh....

I'm not actually sure who is better to vote here. More reread needed.

[armlx]

Fair nuff.

Unvote, Vote sekinj

[armlx]

Unvote

That reclaim was actually my condition of unvote there. I expected scum to argue the NO I'M ICE angle over the standard auto-death of saying they were lying.

Time to actually think if FL is actually Ice or is lying Fire.

[armlx]

If I was Ice Mafia, why would I vote for the first claimant over the counter claimer as I would know BOTH are false? Wouldn't it be more likely, if I was Ice mafia, to assume the townie lied in the first place to draw out a counter claim then to assume a townie is lying because they are so sure they are right that they are lying?

[armlx]

Cite examples. You can't.

Isn't that citing examples in itself?

[armlx]

Ice mafia auto loses if they counter claim here, rather then having a corner case out to win. I dont see why they would.

[armlx]

I don't even know why they (whoever is ice) would claim when you and I [armlx and I] assumed EL was Snix's partner. I assumed sekinj and fl were the Fire Mafia. Maybe they are, and are trying to cast confusion? I just don't understand..any of the claims.

The real Ice mafia has no reason to claim as the only scenario they win is lynch fire today, 0 kills tonight, and then somehow Fire is lynched tomorrow and not them final day, but if they claimed then they are lynch in a theoretical 3-1-1 tomorrow over anyone else, so....

[armlx]

Are you saying both sek and fl are not Ice? If so, do you think they're Fire Mafia?

I think 1 is and 1 is a townie.

[armlx]

That makes sense, I guess. But if one is townie (which I think sek said her claim was a gambit, so ..she's town?), then they should probably say so more clearly. I think fl is fire mafia trying to pass off as ice mafia, so we don't lynch him today. So I am keeping my vote where it is right now.

Yeah, that's where we are at now.

Again, by claiming any actual Ice Mafiate would have thrown away any chance of winning the game. FL keeps ignoring this fact.

[armlx]

Again, FL, a correct lynch today + no kills tonight = chance for Ice win. I don't think any Ice mafiate would throw away that out for no reason.

[armlx]

OP, which game was that (or is it ongoing?)?

[armlx]

Oh yeah.

Vote FL

[armlx]

Nope. The missing kill was due to a correct protect on Ged, which I played out in my D2 case.

[armlx]

The 3rd Ice claim could have lead to a Sekinj lynch, and for all I knew (and was close to assuming due to the logic about no real Ice would claim) you were townie and that would lead to a 4th Ice claim.

[armlx]

The 3rd Ice claim could have lead to a Sekinj lynch, and for all I knew (and was close to assuming due to the logic about no real Ice would claim) you were townie and that would lead to a 4th Ice claim.

Nope, I just basically figured today I'd end up claiming ice and tried to avoid it if I had to. I knew at that point sekinj was scum, and thusly counterclaimed her in my excitement. I still had win scenarios as I explained, they were just drastically reduced.

The town choosing who wins scenario isn't really optimal, as if I was town I would just say "Screw you both" and self vote and refuse to lynch either, leading to no one wins.