Large Normal 221 - Endgame

[DeasVail]

Hey everyone!

[DeasVail]

So I've only read the last page and a bit but I'm already a bit uncomfortable with the wagon on Creature.

[DeasVail]

I can’t tell if you’re joking or not. I don’t think replaceme-out requests are supposed to be public anymore.

Unrelated, I have a Townlean on Nero.

Hmmm I have the opposite at this point in my reading.

[DeasVail]

Things that are not town-tells:

- Frustration
- Enthusiasm
- Saying "I'm Scum!"
- Saying "I'm Town!"
- Being Jesus

This made me giggle

[DeasVail]

Nero is in town mode though

How does scum-Nero differ?

[DeasVail]

I think Vork is town

This post is odd timing imo as I thought the Vork posts immediately preceding this were pretty uninspiring but I'm eager to hear why I'm wrong!

[DeasVail]

I meant to go into this more “guns blazing!” than I have so far and I’m sorry about that. Things have been busier than expected today but I expect I’ll be all caught up soon.

[DeasVail]

Add me to the group of people that sense strong scum-vibes coming off Montosh.

Another post that I oddly disagree with! Kublai at this stage of my reading I think you’re town but I am more strongly thinking that Montosh is town so ???

[DeasVail]

I don't even know who to vote for.

Sorry for the spam posting but I’m reading on my phone and want to keep track of this post in my ISO

[DeasVail]

- Anti town-tells

The post I think you’re referring to I know is personal opinion because *reasons* so isn’t scummy in the slightest

It refers to Post 99.

Is there a reason that you've appointed yourself as Montosh's lawyer and/or spokesperson?

Yeah that’s what I thought. For *reasons* I know that is not at all scummy for Montosh to say.

I think you’re town and you’re just completely on the wrong track with Montosh, so I want to fix you <3

Oh man yes amazing

[DeasVail]

Please have my chick babies

[DeasVail]

I’ve read like most-ish of the game and so far I think roster and Montosh are the town we can believe in. Pisskop may be town too but I’ll need to see if they ended up doing anything with the ridiculous reactions to their self-vote. I think kublai is town, but dude I think basing your reads entirely off who agrees with you is dangerous.

I will be keeping Kirari and Creature as tentative town for now.

I keep thinking that I should feel better about Nero and LUV than I do but I don’t and that’s worrying me!

Jesus wasn’t someone I thought much of but I thought his question to me was pretty harmless and I don’t understand the reactions to it.

I don’t really like Otter, ofrhz, HWS, Kop/new person, or Red. Why so many people that worry me!!

Oh and I think Alchy is more town than not. Not sure what to think of pink avatar yet.

This will be it from me for now but I’ll read the parts I haven’t read and re-read some things to clarify my reads a bit later.

[DeasVail]

Oh yes o don’t like Vorkuta either.

[DeasVail]

Please have my chick babies

I would be privileged to lay in your pocket <3

I can’t think of a witty reply to this right now but just pretend that I did!

[DeasVail]

I will be here for propers by this time tomorrow. i expect I will also have time for this tomorrow morning even

[DeasVail]

Okay I am on the train to work and I'm here!

[DeasVail]

I don't even know who to vote for.

like here he is being shat with his voice and vote and being hesitant.

Don't like the idea of the forcing claim from Red, I am fully aware that he is high up on the wagon list, but it's still early stages.

Don't really see anything in Reds ISO that is pinging me as scummy. :/

Here he's defending a scummy ass Red for ??? reason

2 posts.

Youre going to vote HWS over 2 posts?

Yeah. C'mon, join us.

What are you hoping to achieve? Its virtually a empty slot at the moment in time.

shouting down the HWS bandwagon

VOTE: Creature

we are 24 pages in and he has 0 scum hunting and all he's done is pressure vote?

I agree 10000% about Kop being super scummy and the first post in particular was alarming to me just because what's the point in talking about how you don't know who to vote for? Isn't that what happens in RVS and you just vote someone? Or you can just not vote for anyone and just say what you think? It's just a super scummy post.

But Niko's entrance made me unsure if I was right on Kop or not and I'm still trying to work out what's going on there. I'll finish my catch-up and let you know where I'm at.

[DeasVail]

@Niko: If I volunteer to be lynched today and I flip TOWN, would you be willing to volunteerily eat rope on D2? No ifs and buts. Consider it your vig shot on me and then die for your bad reads )if you're town to begin with). Please say yes.

uhhh what?

[DeasVail]

I was just coming around to thinking Niko-scum/Eyes-town but now I'm just like ???

Is everyone scum?

[DeasVail]

You're not helping your case btw

[DeasVail]

If Eyes flips red (what happens 29 out of 30 times), I would lynch LuckyOtter next by the way.

I’ve just gotten to work and so I don’t have any more time after this, but I was actually thinking...

VOTE: LuckyOtter

Eyes might be scum, Niko might be scum, they might both be scum! ( :O ) I don’t actually know! And that’s the thing. I can’t work out what’s going on. There’s a lot of noise and I keep going between town and scum on both of them and I can’t sort it out right now.

But if I had the choice of lynching anyone in this game right now it would be LuckyOtter and so that’s where I’m going. I know that they’re V/LA but every time reading a post of theirs when catching up it just felt... empty. There were questions askedbut I couldn’t work out why or for what purpose. There seemed to be commentary here and there but not much real assertion of opinion anywhere. I probably could explain this better if I had more time and I’ll check in later today if I can but this is where I’m at right now.

[DeasVail]

Kublai, I’m more confident in Otter being scum than in Niko or Eyes being scum. If I need to then I will make a decision between them but until then I will vote for the person I feel most comfortable lynching and that’s Otter. There is clearly a lot of disagreement when it comes to Eyes vs. Niko but a lot of people have indicated that they believe Otter to be scummy so I made the vote with the belief that a wagon there would be possible. I don’t think it’s helpful to see it as only x vs. y with no option outside of that. Why limit yourself like that unless you have to? There’s still time

[DeasVail]

Seriously people are saying an otter wagon won’t happen but why not? The people saying that are the ones stopping it from happening

[DeasVail]

Deas, we only have 48 hours. Otter isn't getting lynched.

I've been calling eyes + otter as scum since I've replaced in, shouldn't you trust more me in eyes as well?

Today lynch will be either Eyes or me, so make your decision.

I whole heartedly recommend voting Eyes of course.

We have significantly longer than 48 hours.

Do you actually think Otter is scum? If so, why do defeatist about the chances of having them lynched?

[DeasVail]

Deas, what did you find towny about niko?

Their play to me feels very elaborate which could come from scum playing an elaborate game but it gives me pause I guess. I find myself thinking, “would this really come from scum?” and I’m often not sure.

Otter’s play fits in more with how I expect scum to typically play, hence my preference for that vote.

Kublai, I have unfortunately had limited time and even as I’m typing this I’m at work. I only caught up on the game a few hours ago and only decided to vote for Otter shortly after that. What I know is that I’m not entirely comfortable with lynching eyes or Niko right now and wanted to float a different option out there while there was still time. But I won’t have an extensive case or anything on Otter if that’s what you’re hoping for.

[DeasVail]

assume Niko and eyes are in gladiator combat. Who do you puck?

I puck Niko.

(That means lynch right?)

[DeasVail]

I've looked over Otter again and there's not much more I can say that I haven't already. He just fits with my expectation of scum. There's content with questions and opinions here and there but there is nothing risky in his play, the posts give me the vibe of "going through the motions" and posting in response to things because that's what a townie should do, rather than there being genuine efforts to *find scum* behind his posting.

[DeasVail]

I’m okay with Niko being lynched

[DeasVail]

Regretfully I am town.

I beg forgiveness.

I’m intrigued by this reaction. I thought hammering Niko there was entirely reasonable and like you’ve said, it was going to happen anyway. Why would you need to apologise or be forgiven for it?

[DeasVail]

Kublai, you worry me.

I'm becoming increasingly concerned that your posts "at" me are not actually genuine attempts to read me.

Your posts give me the distinct impression that if I hadn't called you out, your plan was to coast on that vote then switch to whoever was getting lynched if needed to avoid a NL.

For example, here, wouldn't it have made much more sense to wait and see if I was actually going to "coast on that vote then switch to whoever was getting lynched if needed to avoid a NL", before mentioning that it's what you're assuming I'm going to do? I was unlikely to be lynched Day 1 even if that was what you wanted, so why the rush to tell everyone about how my plan was to coast on the Otter vote so soon after I first mention my interest in lynching Otter? It would be a much more compelling, and logically sound, argument to wait until the Day ends and then, if I do as you expect, tell everyone about how I did a bad thing or whatever.

But you know what? I didn't think too much of this in isolation. People get excited, people get eager. It happens.

But then we get to...

@DeasVail - What happened to your LuckyOtter vote and case?

What the flying fox?

It's approx. 12 hours into the day phase at the time of your post, it doesn't take much effort to notice that I'm in Australia and realise that the Day started at 1am my time or whatever, and I made a single post questioning a post made shortly after night ended at 8:30amish my time...

So why are you asking that question? Why would anything have "happened" to my LuckyOtter vote and case?

Again, if you were interested in how my read of Otter progressed, I feel it would have made more sense to wait and see what happened.

Instead, you seem desperate to fling dirt at me before the dirt has even materialized. It's as if you're using whatever you can to build a scumread on me, but are not actually ready to commit to it (if your ??? read on me is anything to go by). And why not? To use your line, you've been around long enough to probably know that I was considered a strong town player back when I played more regularly. Have you been hesitant to go all in on me because of that? Have you been hoping that your ethereal dirt would get others to scumread me and do the work for you?

Convince me that I'm wrong.
(And also please explain your townread on Otter. My next post will be about him)

[DeasVail]

And now LuckyOtter.

I find it interesting that he commented on things during his catch-up, but never made any mention of my vote on him while he was V/LA.

Because I'm pretty sure my reaction would have been something along the lines of:

"DID YOU THINK YOU COULD GET AWAY WITH VOTING ME WHILE I WAS V/LA HUH!? HOW OPPORTUNISTIC!"

Okay that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but seriously. I kind of expect people to be at least a little bit self-consumed. After all, just look at my self-consumed concerns about Kublai!

Hey, I don't expect everyone to be exactly like me, but I find it odd that Otter talked about Jesus' gun comment, Nero saying that town shouldn't play like Roster did, and Kublai having an issue with roster moving his vote around (pretty innocuous things tbh) but not have anything to say about the big glaring elephant in the room of me voting for him. With the "commenting on things of interest to him" catch-up style, it seems unnatural that he didn't comment on that.

--

I also am generally underwhelmed by Lil Uzi Vert.

[DeasVail]

Thanks for your response, Kublai.

VOTE: LuckyOtter

[DeasVail]

I don’t think Red is scum.

I also don’t really think Jesus is scum but I’m less confident in that than I am in Red not being scum.

[DeasVail]

There’s clear evidence that you’re thinking about things yet there also seems to be a distinct lack of care for what other people think of you (and this doesn’t seem to be in a showy “I don’t care” way either).

Example is you talking about not liking the top wagons yesterday but also not particularly trying to “look” like you were doing anything about it. I think it’s pretty commonly understood that it’s a bad look but I don’t think it’s actually scummy. I also see your Jesus vote as an attempt to help something else happen but that also “looked” bad because of the nature of the vote.

Essentially I think you’re doing stuff but not putting much effort into making it look good, which is kind of the opposite of what I’d expect from scum.

Am I wrong?

[DeasVail]

But my reads have been next-level shit recently so I’m thinking about hopping on.

You should have more faith in yourself! I think it’s far more useful to town to have everyone share unique opinions rather than just follow others out of a lack of self-confidence.

[DeasVail]

I was actually just thinking about Alch because I realised I had forgotten he existed, though I remember liking this post from him. Even though I disagreed with the reasoning, it seemed kind of assertive for scum but I’m less convinced by it now.

I think Roster’s scum trying to pocket a range of people. Their only scumread is HeWhoSwims which they’ve voted 3 separate times so far. Meanwhile there’s a handful of Townreads that were given in quick succession. I don’t see the sincerity behind most of their reads. The defense of Montosh feels like they’re white-knighting a Townie.

VOTE: RosterFoster

I still don’t think I’d pick him for scum, but I’m interested to see what you think.

[DeasVail]

Btw LUV, I’m waiting to hear more from you about where your head is at etc

[DeasVail]

I think Vorkuta is more scummy than Jesus fwiw, and I also have serious concerns about Lil Uzi Vert

[DeasVail]

I think Vorkuta is more scummy than Jesus fwiw, and I also have serious concerns about Lil Uzi Vert

Reading through Vorkuta and Jesus again, I still stand by this.

585 is concerning to me. Why is Vorkuta calling Creature low-hanging fruit here? Does it betray the fact that this is how Vorkuta hopes people will see Creature. It doesn't make much sense to me that town would say "but I don't go for low-hanging fruit as scum!!!" in regards to someone they're actually scum-reading. Whereas I could say scum feeling comfortable saying it because they're not targeting low-hanging fruit, they're targeting scum.

405 seems overly concerned about getting flak for an RVS vote. I could see town being more inclined to shrug it off and move on.

I also disagree with their Creature votes being particularly significant. There's a lot of loudness re: Creature being scum but little in the way of substance that would actually get Creature lynched from what Vorkuta posted, especially with the "low-hanging fruit" comment.

Also 823.

--

I'm less reassured by my reread of Jesus than I thought I would be, but the whole mess he's gotten into after his question to me seems like a result of alarming lack of thought into what he's posting (when he otherwise seems fairly composed) so I still lean town on him overall.

--

I am very eager to see stuff from Pops because from a quick glance again through Lil Uzi I am ready to strike if pops doesn't impress.

--

UNVOTE: LuckyOtter
VOTE: Vorkuta

[DeasVail]

I’ll take a look at Eyes tonight

[DeasVail]

IDK if it's scummy but it's antitown how much Deasvail has been chattering at Kublai Khan 1v1. I can't even remember what they were arguing about. Larges are literally the one game type where thread throughput is like really important to win % and neighborhood PTs are a legitimate power role.
Deasvail also wants to lynch my slot if I'm not "impressive". That's... unfortunate.

Why are you attributing blame for the 1v1 stuff with Kublai to me? I responded to Kublai saying things about me, then in response to a questions I went (admittedly a bit OTT) RAWR RAWR, then I realised the RAWR RAWR was OTT and unhelpful and probably inaccurate and quite intentionally disengaged. (I need to make it clear that I don't think Kublai was anti-town from it either)

I am genuinely curious though, because I wouldn't have thought that the logical perception was that I was anti-town from it.

But given that you obviously seem concerned about my need for you to "impress", I can't shake the feeling that you're trying to discredit me?

--

Now regarding Eyes, I actually really like Roster's case. I think it's a good case. Similar to Niko in some ways I think there's a lot of INFORMATION in Eyes' posting and (lol throwback to end of Day 1) I still find it difficult to parse!

More than most reads, I can see a world where I'm wrong, but if I had to call it, I'd go with town here.

The few things that stand out to me are:

Creature has been killed.

GOOD shot.

I would feel super awkward saying something like this as scum. I would even feel awkward saying it as town out of fear that I'd look scummy! That's how awkward it is!

1062, 1064, 1065 - I don't think scum would have the gall to gloat about getting Niko lynched? I'd expect at least a small amount of fake remorse for the situation with Niko Day 1.

I also ended up at the opinion that the sheer BRAVADO at the end of Day 1 was more likely town overestimating the IMPACT of their townflip than scum pretending to.

And ultimately, I mean this in the most endearing way, but I get the sense that Eyes is just posting whatever random stuff they have in mind at the time, without really thinking it through.

The reason I'm worried about being wrong is because of this last part, because I know that scum can adopt a similar thing of just posting white noise and nonsense and whatever comes to mind constantly in an effort to drown out any opposition and look town in the process. And there's a possibility that this is that, I'm scared to be going against what seems to have become a popular opinion but I'm going to stick to my fictitious guns.

Right now, I think Eyes is town.

Very happy to have a conversation about this though.

I would also pursue wagons on any of Vorkuta, Pops or Otter before Eyes.

[DeasVail]

There’s been lots of talk about it.

Let’s make it happen!

VOTE: popsofctown

[DeasVail]

No

[DeasVail]

I don’t get it

[DeasVail]

On further thought I very much disagree with the Red wagon

[DeasVail]

It makes far more sense for scum to actually have the details correct.

I feel like this mistake is more likely to come from town who vaguely remember reasons for forming a read but don’t remember order of events (easy to do) than scum who are more likely to make sure of the details of what they are saying.

Honestly it only strengthens my Red townread.

[DeasVail]

Fair enough. It just to me seems like a really likely thing for town to do and with all the excitement I wonder if I’m missing something but I’m pretty sure I’m not?

[DeasVail]

I obviously got it really wrong on Red. I was convinced he was going to flip town. I’ve seen flashwagon’s like that happen on town so many times before. I’ll need to really re-think how I’ve been reading the game, and I’ll be more here tonight.

[DeasVail]

DeasVail -- between the DV/LO 1v1 I think I'd do LO first since I liked DV's reads early game, but that feeling has waned a bit. I don't like 708 as much as I did on day 1 since he paired me with creature which is the kind of "let's put my scum townread with a town in case I flip so it's not obvious" thing you see from scum a lot, also so much of the iso is irt LO I'm kinda... hmm

oh by the way for what it's worth the reason I paired you with Creature was because you had both claimed/soft-claimed stuff and my plan was to wait for further info before considering either of you as scum.

--

As for where I'm at from a quick glance through,

Town: Pops, Kublai, roster, Alch
Less Town: Nero Cain, Kirari, ofrhz
Less Scum: Montosh, nomnom, Jesus
Scum: Vorkuta, Otter

My first thought is that I kinda townread the twilight posting from Kirari and ofrhz?
In the case of Kirari, the vote on Red after he was obviously hammered is pretty weird from scum and seems more jokey than anything else.
And with ofrhz, my expectation is that she would realise her buddy was hammered and avoid doing some weird waffly pseudo-defense.
Buttt I'm going to think these through more when I'm not about to sleep because my usual approach to townreading people has not really held up so far here.

I do generally disagree with the blanket wagon clearing also. I think that the way that someone votes a person (and the situation) can be pretty town-indicative, but the Creature wagon in particular is not something I believe scum would have necessarily avoided. In particular my Vorkuta concern is that they were cheerleading that wagon without actually contributing to it.

I'll be giving this more thought tomorrow morning.

[DeasVail]

ofrhz also got spooked by the speed of the wagon on Red in day 1, which I think is more likely to be a town reaction to the over-eagerness of the push on Red by you/fast claim, etc. Yes, scum can try to hard defend a buddy for that reason, but it happens relatively infrequently I wanna say because scum is hyperaware of how that will look

at least I'm not the only one that was thinking it!

[DeasVail]

It wasn't forgetting, it was a false reconstructed memory. The reported occurrence was "placing an unvote on creature with the reasoning that he's town in a different game". The analogue to that would be when you tell a 5 year old every other week that they went to Disneyland when they were 4, usually they'll eventually generate some false memories to match what you tell them. That doesn't happen to townies all the time because it's a rare occurrence in adults and 5 year olds aren't playing mafia.

Yes, as town he would be equally likely to forget when Creature flipped and therefore how useful the lie is... but like that's not what's on trial.

You and DeasVail (and so did RedFlavor but it's a cranial ego self-defense mechanism I'd positive I'd talk myself out of it being a real tell too) keep splitting apart the action "unvoting Creature while considering the fact he's town in a different game" into its component part so that either alignment can forget the order of the opponents. It has to be considered one indivisible action that did or didn't happen.

I am probably wasting threadspace with this because the player I wanted dead is dead and I had extra votes but I really don't get how people don't get it.

Pops, I don’t know if I agree entirely but I get what you’re saying and obviously you were right and I was wrong. Regardless, I can (naturally) totally understand why someone would have a similar reaction to the wagon to what I did.

The main reason for the Montosh placement in my rough reads breakdown is I remember liking them early in the game but they’ve made less of an impression recently (I think it’s common for scum to start strong and fizzle) but I liked them early game for a reason obviously and that might still be valid. When I have time I’ll go through Montosh more specifically paying attention to Red/Creature interactions but I’m more likely to favour Otter-scum here. I completely agree with Kirari re: the Red vote.

Also keen to hear from Vork why they are conftown.

[DeasVail]

I’ve had a very exhausting day and so it may take me a little while to be more definitive about where I’m at. I will get to this when I can.

[DeasVail]

DeasVail -- between the DV/LO 1v1 I think I'd do LO first since I liked DV's reads early game, but that feeling has waned a bit. I don't like 708 as much as I did on day 1 since he paired me with creature which is the kind of "let's put my scum townread with a town in case I flip so it's not obvious" thing you see from scum a lot, also so much of the iso is irt LO I'm kinda... hmm

oh by the way for what it's worth the reason I paired you with Creature was because you had both claimed/soft-claimed stuff and my plan was to wait for further info before considering either of you as scum.

--

As for where I'm at from a quick glance through,

Town: Pops, Kublai, roster, Alch
Less Town: Nero Cain, Kirari, ofrhz
Less Scum: Montosh, nomnom, Jesus
Scum: Vorkuta, Otter

My first thought is that I kinda townread the twilight posting from Kirari and ofrhz?
In the case of Kirari, the vote on Red after he was obviously hammered is pretty weird from scum and seems more jokey than anything else.
And with ofrhz, my expectation is that she would realise her buddy was hammered and avoid doing some weird waffly pseudo-defense.
Buttt I'm going to think these through more when I'm not about to sleep because my usual approach to townreading people has not really held up so far here.

I do generally disagree with the blanket wagon clearing also. I think that the way that someone votes a person (and the situation) can be pretty town-indicative, but the Creature wagon in particular is not something I believe scum would have necessarily avoided. In particular my Vorkuta concern is that they were cheerleading that wagon without actually contributing to it.

I'll be giving this more thought tomorrow morning.

Why is Jesus so low on your list? Red threw around some useless votes this game including on Creature but seemed pretty intent on getting Jesus lynched.

Jesus was there on my list mostly due to me feeling fairly mediocre about him from the first 2 days. He’s not among my top picks for scum at this point, but I don’t really think Red’s votes on him are that significant? You surely remember having an issue with Red yourself for voting Jesus after the gun comment without really reading the game, right? So why would you think Red was intent on getting Jesus lynched? It was always unlikely that Jesus was going to be lynched in favour of Niko because of the fun comment. When Red voted Jesus Day 2, I don’t think he had much reason to think the wagon would take off, and there’s always the “I didn’t read the game” excuse if he moves his vote later. If they are scum together, it seems like reasonably low-impact distancing. But again, I’d still say Jesus is more likely town than scum.

Is the skitter thing the only reason people are wanting to clear Montosh? I can see scum faking that.

Also I’m not a fan of this minimisation of reasons people may have for thinking Montosh is town, particularly since I didn’t get the impression that this was considered to be a big thing?

[DeasVail]

Re: Montosh

Looking over their posts again I am struck by the sheer ATTITUDE of their early posting (e.g the stuff about clearly stating what parts of their posts are serious and not) and I think this is why I townread them earlier. It feels like towny frustration. It felt genuine to me when first reading through. Maybe it still does?

I’m definitely more suspicious of later posting though. The ISOing feels like looking busy without doing much in reality.

I also am concerned by this post.

Blarghh... my reads have been shit.

Ok I'll be here tonight after work.

It seems like a potentially over-negative reaction to the gamestate? 2 scum dead at this stage of the game is pretty awesome, so why the negative focus on their reads?

Yeah overall I don’t know here. Obviously there are potential town explanations for the things I’m concerned by, but the things I like could potentially be faked.

I’m leaning slightly against scum here I think, but I could be persuaded otherwise maybe?

At this point my favoured lynches are probably

Otter > Vork > Montosh/Nom/Jesus

(Still need to look at nom and Jesus properly but my guess based on previous feelings is that I won’t want to lynch either of them more than Otter/Vork)

I’m also unlikely to want to lynch anyone else (including ofrhz)

[DeasVail]

Deas can I get actual reads from you? You're still not voting.

I’ve given tentative reads and am in the process of clarifying them before I vote.

Is there a reason why me not voting is particularly significant right now?

[DeasVail]

Eh it’s closer to end of day than I thought.

VOTE: LuckyOtter

Quick look through nom confirms that I probably won’t vote for them.

The idea of a Jesus lynch at the very least wouldn’t light my fire as much as vork or Otter.

PEdit: @nom I think my posts gave a fairly clear indication on where my head was at. I could vote someone or say “I am scumreading” them and it would under a lot of circumstances achieve the same thing.

[DeasVail]

And I still don’t really think ofrhz’s twilight posting makes much sense from a buddy

[DeasVail]

Fair enough. I feel like people in general place too much importance on “votes” (and I have similar problems with RVS heh), but I think I’m fairly alone in that belief!

[DeasVail]

Roster, apart from the hedging on Creature, was there anything that made you change your mind on him?

[DeasVail]

On Montosh

[DeasVail]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

[DeasVail]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

Please Re-read.

I did

[DeasVail]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

Please Re-read.

I did

If you read then you would know that I never said i SR Nero. I said he was 2nd on my list (behind Alch) out of 4 (one of which was myself) people to be scum only considering that wagon on Creature.

I realised I was mistaken on that part but the main point of my post is that I don’t know why you’re scumreading Ofrhz.

[DeasVail]

what do you not like about the montosh case and what makes him town?

Can you link me to the Montosh case? I don’t remember seeing it and I’m at work at the moment so it’s a bit hard for me to find rn.

[DeasVail]

I saw all these pages and was hoping to gain some great insight from reading them, but I really haven't?

Montosh I need you to post. I'm losing faith in you!

[DeasVail]

Also I acknowledge Alch's 1894 re: Otter.

I'm not that convinced by it for a couple of reasons:

- I could see scum responding to the creature kill by thinking "Oh damn we could die at any time. Better start some distancing!"
- Also after Otter voted Red for not reading the game (and before the post Alch quoted), I was somewhat vocal about thinking Red was town and there hadn't been any kind of Red wagon catching fire at that point, so I could easily see Otter-scum feeling it was safe to stay on.

Also I'm still generally very underwhelmed by Otter.

[DeasVail]

My opinion of Jesus is also declining, but uggghh

[DeasVail]

I think the remaining scum are in Otter/Vorkuta/Jesus

[DeasVail]

Jesus what kind of impact do you feel you are having on the game?

[DeasVail]

Otter’s last scum game was from over a year ago, and it looks like he barely had time to play the slot he replaced into before he got guiltied

Deas last mafia game period was over a year ago

Based on my initial glance, these are both great meta candidates zzz

Do you think that a scum game of mine from a bit over a year ago would be remarkably different from a scum game now if I’ve barely played mafia between the two games?

[DeasVail]

I’m pretty indifferent to massclaiming

[DeasVail]

I’ve been fairly successfully meta read in the past, and I was worried that you were dismissing the validity of any read obtained from looking at my past games!

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Jesus

Jesus > Otter > Vork

in my mind right now.

I'm also okay with an otter wagon being a thing. Jesus has just felt more... flat to me lately.

[DeasVail]

...

[DeasVail]

not really?

[DeasVail]

that was pretty slick

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Otter

My preference order has changed!

[DeasVail]

The last few pages are kind of cute

[DeasVail]

I seriously feel Otter is the safest bet for scum. Everyone else has something weird about them that gives me pause but Otter just fits. I’ve been saying it since Day 1!

[DeasVail]

Okay fair. I am sorry about that pops.

[DeasVail]

Otter, if you were town I would expect you to be more concerned about the fact that you are town and there is a wagon growing on you, rather than the apparent weakness of the case on you?

[DeasVail]

Nero, why not Otter for scum?

[DeasVail]

Nero, why not Otter for scum?

b/c I'm bad?

idk. You guys could certainly be right and I could be wrong. I was also nodding along with ofhrz case for why Otter is town. At the same time, I guess you could argue that he just kept pushing Red b/c he knew Red was scum.

And then there's also like, KK, kirari and Nom who I think are scummy. KK's "informed" could just be an SK and if he was informed then I'm not at all sure why he was voting Niko.

the SK talk/Hunting from Nom and Kirari seem really scummy to me. Like if you are group scum you hunt the SK b/c you can't hunt yourself.

I also have concerns re: KK but he’s very unlikely to be group scum and so I’m letting that simmer for now. I feel like we’ll have a better idea there later.

I agree that the degree of setup/SK speculation occurring has been very much not useful, but I’ve been reading Kirari and nom as town for other reasons, so I’m not sure how much weight to give the weird preoccupation with setup spec and am leaning towards not considering it too significant right now.

[DeasVail]

nom as town

Can you expand on nom town DV?

It's a read that's grown for me a bit since Day 3 and the more I see from nom the more it fits in with my impression of them as town.

Most recently I've found the assertive pushing and expressed frustration surrounding KK's claim re: being informed about a vig to be more likely town. It doesn't make much sense for scum to push for KK to claim who the vig is. It's a classically "bad look" that could be accused of being "rolefishing", but nom makes a correct point that it wouldn't actually be useful information for the scum right now. So if nom is scum what they are doing is being obnoxious and causing people to think badly of them.... unnecessarily? What's the point? You could argue that nom is playing this way in order to look "genuine" and "town" but as far as I know I'm the only one that has actually interpreted nom's posts this way and I just think it's a strategy that wouldn't work for scum more often than not. People are more willing to lynch you if they don't enjoy your posting!

I don't agree with nom. I think that KK can do what he likes with whatever information he may have at this stage and I don't think it's up to me right now to try and force that out of him. But I think that the example I'm talking about fits with what nom's approach to the game has been and I don't see it as a scum approach.

I also see their persistent townread on me as more town- than scum-motivated. I am sure that scum would be seeing me as a potential mislynch, if not now then later, and a lot of people are expressing doubt regarding my alignment. But at the same time, I don't think scum can rely on me getting lynched just like that. It would make more sense for nom as scum to at least keep me open as a mislynch option, rather than risk looking bad by "starting to scumread" me after being so steadfast in "reading" me as town.

[DeasVail]

that was pretty slick

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Otter

My preference order has changed!

That was easy. Thanks for your vote of confident. Now move to Nero. Please.

I would need a lot of convincing to not see Nero as town here!

[DeasVail]

What do they do as town?

[DeasVail]

I just want to lynch Otter and I feel like this is what needs to happen but everyone’s making it complicated

[DeasVail]

Not in normals, vork, but thanks for townslipping

Is this a true thing? If so, cool.

Hey, Checking for consensus on this. Reading through, I see that the "traitors get endgamed if all mafia die" was already posted in thread before Vorkuta "slipped" by mentioning it. My gut is telling me that it's a legitimate slip and Vorkuta actually is just kinda lazy town who isn't hard-reading the game.

Does anyone have meta with Vorkuta where he showed signs of extreme cleverness/deviousness?

I don't know if I'm ready to rule out Vorkuta as scum based on it, but it makes me more hesitant to lynch them than I would have been before.

As for Otter, the main reason for me wanting to lynch him is that everyone else in the game gives me at least some reason to think they're town. Obviously not everyone else is town (and I still need to look into nomnom's meta), but there isn't an alternative that I feel better about.

Most recently, I haven't liked Otter's focus on trying to pick apart the case on him, as if he needs to find something to argue against, which I think is a fairly common mindset (where is your case???). He mentions me as his third preference for scum in 2179, yet all game I've sensed a real reluctance from him to engage me or even talk about me, and it's only in 2195 that my poking is "starting to wear" on him. Why not before?

[post=2190] is also very odd, where he states that it was not easy to get rid of either Creature or Red. They died N1 and D2 which is pretty early! It seems kind of weird that town would say that killing them was hard.

[DeasVail]

Uh there's a lot of bickering going on

[DeasVail]

Uh I was hoping Otter would be lynched.

First thought is that I’m not impressed by any traitor-related tells at this point. It’s just become an easy way for scum to “townslip” imo and especially if you’re about to be lynched why wouldn’t you try it?

I’ll take a more proper look through everything this afternoon though.

[DeasVail]

I’ll still ask people to reconsider Otter as an option.

Nonetheless I plan on re-reviewing all my reads, hopefully some time today.

[DeasVail]

Do you think you're out of your scumrange Deas?

I wouldn’t describe my play here as being out of my scumrange as much as it’s just a very different approach from what I take as scum. I don’t really think I have a “scumrange” because when I’ve been on my A game as scum in the past I’ve been able to get myself into townblocs (although this does get exhausting for me), and I think my scumgame is fairly inconsistent.. But on that note, me being scum is much more of a “performance” than I feel my play has been here. As town I can be really on point but I also can be kind of underwhelming and while I don’t often get lynched as town I’m quite often a lynch candidate and someone that scum often think they can mislynch. I think that my play around Red is probably the most striking thing that would be opposite of scum-me. I am pretty sure I would have bussed him.

[DeasVail]

oh, that's right!

VOTE: pops

I had this thought too, but I don’t see how he can be scum here.

[DeasVail]

oh, that's right!

VOTE: pops

I had this thought too, but I don’t see how he can be scum here.

*she

Sorry for the mispronoun

[DeasVail]

Also Kirari there are some things you’ve mentioned about nom that I want to consider but I’m not as convinced by things such as “scummy overreaction” stuff.

I also know I asked before, and I may have missed your response to it, but what does nom do as town that is different from what they have done here.

[DeasVail]

"I had the same thought as you Nero, but I doubt pops is scum"

"there are some things about your case on nom to consider but I'm not convinced"

I’m at work and I was hoping to be off work by now so it’s been annoying not being able to devote more energy to this, but re: Pops, I had a moment of paranoia about her after she seemed intent like me on lynching Otter but then just seemed... so easily swayed? But then I though back to the Red thing and no way that comes from a buddy imo. So the main point of that was to indicate that pops also concerns me but that I don’t think she’s concerning as a result of being scum.

Nom is actually someone I’ve avoided thinking about more closely though in the hope that Otter would be lynched so I’m feeling pretty fencesitty there yeah.

[DeasVail]

"I had the same thought as you Nero, but I doubt pops is scum"

"there are some things about your case on nom to consider but I'm not convinced"

I agree with that.

@DV Can you detail your thoughts perhaps?

And I don’t get the point of this. I’ve said already that I’m planning to look at the game properly given that the Otter wagon has stalled but that I can’t do it right now and that it’s coming and you all need to have more patience

[DeasVail]

Nom has pretty consistently townread me

[DeasVail]

"I had the same thought as you Nero, but I doubt pops is scum"

"there are some things about your case on nom to consider but I'm not convinced"

I agree with that.

@DV Can you detail your thoughts perhaps?

And I don’t get the point of this. I’ve said already that I’m planning to look at the game properly given that the Otter wagon has stalled but that I can’t do it right now and that it’s coming and you all need to have more patience

Dude we have one day on the clock, we have anything but time here.

That’s why I think we should lynch Otter and why I’m keeping up with the posting that’s happening here even though I’m literally working right now and somehow just missing every second post that’s happening.

[DeasVail]

LuckyOtter -

Medium Scumread

I still think LuckyOtter is scum.

My general impression throughout the game is that Otter has played it fairly safe. There have been thoughts expressed, some questions here and there, getting involved with the game were he can. It's reasonably okay play. It's nothing flashy, but it gets the job done.

But that's the problem. It's the kind of stock-standard, reasonably okay "town" play that I would expect scum to emulate, and emulate with relative ease.

Additional concerns I have overall are:

1. Otter's approach to me

This has been a long-running concern of mine, but I do find it really concerning!

Someone mentioned that a lot of my ISO was about Otter (sorry about that), but there's very little in Otter's ISO about me. He seemingly ignores the fact that I am so vocal about suspecting him until there's a wagon on him (see 2296, at which point he states that he is more annoyed by me because of the wagon on him. He's also now keeping me as a possible scumread but there seems little effort to really try and work out if I'm scum or not. Even though I'd expect town to naturally be quite interested in working out the alignment of the player most consistently after them throughout the game. There are occasional attempts to engage with me (e.g. 1712), but this is not followed up after my response and questioning in 1757. I can't help but feel as if Otter's been worried about suspecting me (e.g. worried about being accused of OMGUS), but also worried about looking like he's trying to pander to me. And at the same time his read of me just seems to sit stagnant...

2. Mismatch Between Questioning and Reads

In looking again through Otter's ISO I'm concerned by the apparent disconnect between his questions and his reads.

The questions appear to me to be for the sake of asking questions, but don't seem to actually inform his reads all that often?

The question to me in 1712 comes up again. I explain in response to it why I don't think Jesus is necessarily town but there is just no further engagement there. Did Otter disagree with me and think I was scum because of it? Did Otter disagree but think my reasoning was town? I don't expect it to be outright obvious, but there's just very little evidence that the question asked was intended to serve any purpose.

Another example of this is 1072, where Otter has a reaction to people getting all uppity about Jesus' gun comment, but instead of actually having it seem to inform his reads he latches onto votes Red for not reading.

Those are the main examples that stand out, and as I write them it kind of feels underwhelming to me in comparison to the feeling I get from Otter's posts, but the feeling is still there all the same.

3. His response to the recent pressure

Mostly summed up in 2291.

In addition, in recent posts, there's a lot of talk about hunting groupscum vs. traitor-hunting but not actually much attempt at hunting group-scum? I guess he's voting Ofrhz but I don't feel that there's all that much behind that for Otter?

--

I plan on going through everyone left in the game and thought I'd start with reiterating thoughts on Otter because that's still what I'm pushing (I refuse to let this die!) I was hoping to get through more today, but it just ended up being a mess. I will get to Ofrhz next, hopefully now. I suspect that I will still read them as town.

[DeasVail]

Also,
I am kinda intrigued by KK's plan to late lynch DeasVail. That might be a solid backup plan.

Has your read on me changed since before (or your read on people you were scumreading) or is this more just a "this seems like a cool idea" thing?

[DeasVail]

Ofrhz -

Weak Townread

-

I would still say that the biggest contributor to my townread here is 1507. It's just such an awkward scumbuddy post! I think it's likely that Ofrhz as a scumbuddy would have realised that Red had been hammered. I think it's unlikely that Ofrhz as a scumbuddy would take such a hedgy stance on a buddy, after Red had already been hammered. It attracts attention and I know that if I were scum I would predict anything conspicuously pro-Red in any way to most likely attract bad attention rather than good attention.

But this is all based on likelihood. I'm not quite as 100% sold on it as I thought I was.

And reading through the rest of Ofrhz's posting, I'm not as reassured as I thought I would be.

I like their posts. I feel better about them than I do about Otter's. But there's not much apart from the post about RedFlavour that cements them as town in my mind.

And I also have a couple of concerns.

Such as their previously expressed scumread on nom (and seemingly it's still there) yet I don't sense much engagement in the debate surrounding nom's meta, for example.
And the perpetuated Me/Otter dichotomy by saying that they will meta-read both of us, whilst also undermining it due to the length of time between my last game and now.

But overall I think this post makes my overall read on Ofrhz sound worse than it actually is. I still don't think I would actually want to lynch Ofrhz. Based on previous impressions, I am pretty sure that Jesus, Vorkuta and maybe even Kirari would be more appealing lynches to me than Ofrhz. Maybe listing them as a weak townread is not really accurate? I don't know! It's getting late and I don't know how much sense I'm making anymore but that's that.

PEdit: Are you interested in doing anything to prevent the Otter and Ofr wagons from dismantling, or not really?

[DeasVail]

Quick thoughts based on quick ISOs that I'll plan to do more formally later (but maybe not before end of day!)

I've looked again through nomnomnom (including a brief glance through recent town and scum games) and I just feel overall really ehh about the argument on them. It feels more like a big distraction than anything else? And what I said in 2220 still holds for me. Even the recent pushing for me to provide reads despite me having been clear about how I wasn't going to be able to yet was just needlessly inflammatory. It made me frustrated. My immediate reaction to it was "I don't like nomnomnom!!!" But there was no point to it. It doesn't seem to have been in an effort to support a scumread on me. It was probably from town.

Kirari is probably the main person that I've allowed to sort of skate by as a townread for me but I'm worried that I've missed something by doing that. I don't have the chance to look through Kirari's ISO to a depth that would make me entirely comfortable considering a lynch there yet, but it's on my to-do-when-I-get-the-chance list.

Jesus is aaargghhh I have no idea. Would probably lynch him if I absolutely had to give up on Otter just because he's a ??? but still potentially scum for me but I'd prefer not.

And I keep forgetting that Vorkuta exists.

[DeasVail]

My general impression throughout the game is that Otter has played it fairly safe. There have been thoughts expressed, some questions here and there, getting involved with the game were he can. It's reasonably okay play. It's nothing flashy, but it gets the job done.

Eh... With all due respect, this is the exact same way I'd characterize your play.

That’s probably an issue with your characterisation then?

[DeasVail]

I have given this some thought and I have decided that I would be uncomfortable lynching anyone outside of Otter at this point. I still think he's our best bet at hitting scum and if I am wrong on this then seriously I just want to know. I know this is weird and perhaps even selfish, and overall I still think that Otter is scum, but I can't deny that it's a factor in how I'm thinking.

I also don't want this to derail the day at all, but I am reasonably suspicious of KK being a Serial Killer.

[DeasVail]

ugh why does everyone have to make things so complicated?

[DeasVail]

I have my doubts but I’m not totally unhappy with it

[DeasVail]

vigleash on DeasVail, I guess.

lol

[DeasVail]

Just checking in quickly. I’m currently away for the weekend.

I’m a VT

[DeasVail]

I probably still want to lynch Otter here. Would consider Vork as an alternative maybe?

[DeasVail]

Oh also this is more out of interest than anything else, but KK how come you were informed about the vig thing? I didn’t see anything in the posted PMs that would indicate it. Was it just part of your role PM? Apologies if I’ve missed something obvious.

[DeasVail]

*backup thing

[DeasVail]

Cool, thanks!

[DeasVail]

Who gave Kirari full control of the game state and why are we being coralled?

This is actually a good post!

[DeasVail]

Anyway, I've looked over some things again and I feel like everything points to

VOTE: LuckyOtter?

[DeasVail]

Who gave Kirari full control of the game state and why are we being coralled?

This is actually a good post!

J/w but why is it a good post when no one seems to want to keep playing this game, I just want to close out the win and it's a lot easier to do that with a vetted townblock of 4 rather than 3

It feels a bit micro-managey!

Though that also was before this weird silence.

Anyway I've made my vote and I feel pretty comfortable with it? I've had a glance through a couple of times now and Otter just fits imo.

[DeasVail]

LuckyOtter - HeWhoSwims/nomnomnom calling him town or lynchbait all game.

Nero Cain - "Random" First vote of HeWhoSwims. nomnomnom never gave a read.

ofrhz - nomnomnom was partial to ofrhz lynch over LuckyOtter lynch.

Vorkuta - Barely mentions Vorkuta.

BodhiSmith13-DeasVail - nomnomnom calls DeasVail town for hesitating on the RedFlavor lynch.

Kirari Momobami - Went from town read to scummy in a sort of self-preservation fashion.

I think Kirari Momobami and ofrhz are off the table for today.

I think a traitor generally tries to signal the groupscum not to kill them, and tries to protect them by calling them town.

So.. I think LuckyOtter is the strongest contender for lynch and failing that, DeasVail for vig-shot. I would strongly reccomend Nero Cain for lynch following that.

Reading through nom’s ISO, I felt as if they were getting ready to change to a “scumread” on me, but hopefully it doesn’t need to come to that.

[DeasVail]

I read through nom’s ISO after the flip and found their progression on me interesting?

[DeasVail]

Why wouldn’t I be looking at nom’s ISO after the flip? This just seems bizarre.

[DeasVail]

Are you deliberately trying not to understand?

Looking through nomnomnom's ISO to find scum is a very town move.
Looking through nomnomnom's ISO to check to see if you can spin yourself as town is a very scummy move.

I did the first one.
You did the second one.

Therefore, you are scum.

I read through nom’s ISO primarily for the purpose of seeing if it would influence my reads, but in doing so also noticed what I thought was an interesting progression in regards to me. When you shared your thoughts on nom’s ISO in regards to me, I responded by sharing mine. I think that should be pretty clear from my posts? Honestly I don’t care that much though. I feel like you’ve had me as a pet scumread throughout the game and have been interpreting everything in such a way to fit your exisiting scumread. And I know that if Otter flips town then it looks very bad for me and I’m completely expecting to die if that’s the case. But I do think that Otter is scum and I would like to lynch him please.

[DeasVail]

I think reading to towncase yourself after being propsed as a vig shot isn't intrinsically scummy

It would help if he was saying he was towncasing himself tho, ya

I mean, he basically did.

I went through the iso and post thoughts on possible connection. DeasVail did the same thing, except instead of looking for connections and offering an analysis (y'know, scum-hunting), he just offered that he thinks nomnomnom was eventually going to call him scum, so we shouldn't think he's scum.

I went through nom’s ISO a while back before I voted Otter.

[DeasVail]

Oh?

Anyway, I've looked over some things again and I feel like everything points to

VOTE: LuckyOtter?

[DeasVail]

Oh?

Anyway, I've looked over some things again and I feel like everything points to

VOTE: LuckyOtter?

Okay, you've got nothing as a defense. Got it.

I don't even know what I'm defending against tbh

[DeasVail]

Just promise to remember I had a few good reads this game and wasn't a total fuckup, lol

This seems a weird thing to say if you think I’m scum.

[DeasVail]

From your perspective as town, you can hammer me and the game is more likely than not over?

[DeasVail]

I have accepted my fate today, but please don’t let Otter survive the night

[DeasVail]

Something doesn’t feel right

[DeasVail]

Hold up, I’ve been thinking

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Kirari

It’s been nagging at me all day and I know it’s kind of illogical but the way that things have just been sitting like this has made me super uncomfortable.

But I keep thinking about Kirari’s play today.
The way they wanted to lynch Vork but don’t seem to care that it became me and Otter.
The way they set up a next day dichotomy between me and Nero as if they knew the game wouldn’t end today.
The way they seem to be trying not to make waves as if they know they’ve probably won the game and just need to ride it out.

I’m scared.

And when I looked through nom, there’s not that much ruling out svs. Kirari was hard on nom being scum, but nom was... surprisingly limp in response.

Idk I think I’m still getting lynche. But I’m worried about Kirari and maybe Otter is actually scum and this is silly paranoia but sonething’s not right.

[DeasVail]

Eh, I’ve been at L-1 for a while(?) now. I forget how long. I keep waking up expecting to be lynched!

Let’s face it, I’m not surviving today. But if the townblock is wrong, that’s a problem! Not one that I expect to be solved today, but I’m having doubts about Otter based on how they’ve played today and you honestly are the most concerning to me out of everyone else.

[DeasVail]

I just don’t really think how Otter has played this day phase comes from scum.

Though also on that note, I feel like I would have played this totally differently as scum too?

I don’t know, I feel like I’m just waiting for someone to get impatient and hammer me and so it’s been hard getting my head into this.

[DeasVail]

Good game! Town did great imo