ZOMG, she's scum with Dick Dastardly!
Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!
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This demands an answer.somestrangeflea wrote:
Well? Does it?Jesse Gunn wrote:Because his name comes before me.
Also, a word of note: I don't think speculating on who killed either victim is particularly useful. CKD was one of the most experienced players here, anyone could have looked up his record and decided he was worth getting rid of. I usually random NK as scum for precisely the reason that town is likely to tie themselves in WIFOMy knots wondering who had motive to do it.
I particularly dislike this post:
I really don't understand this. Why would someone nk on the small random possibility he was a vig again?LaptopGun wrote:ok in open 50 CKD was the Vig. He had a nightkillofone of the mafia randomly. He said after the game was abandoned that he learned it was not always a good idea that the Vig kill N0. If I learned anything, I'd say one or more of our mafia are refugees of that game and didn't want to deal with the possibility that he was vig again- long odds but he was lucky and was a pretty smart player.
Besides, even if the decision was made by someone who'd played with him before, it only takes one member of the scumteam to suggest a kill- and one scum amongst all of those who'd previously played with CKD is no better ratio than four amongst everyone, I don't think.
This reminds me of a game where LML died N0, and someone suggested something along the lines of... 'It was either an experienced player who'd played with him before, or a newbie who looked up his record and found out he was a good player.'
Basically, I think law of averages dictates there probably is at least one person who's played with CKD before amongst the scum. But I don't see how this suggests anything useful that the town should do.-
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YOU THINK!farside22 wrote:
I agree with that. At this point one of the two of them is lying that I have no doubt about.Justin Playfair wrote:Hmm...
Given Farside22's comment and SixAces' response let me state as emphatically as possible that we do not need counterclaims to either of these two claims, and in fact they would be useless, as the first post points out that both these roles could have 0-2 owners.
In a game where all cops are sane, OF COURSE one of them is lying. So you're not actually saying anything.
I'm avote: Six Aces. Jesse's claim is just atrocious play if he's mafia, whilst claiming doc makes perfect sense for a scum trying to say anything to stay alive.-
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If you're not scum, he's hardly laughing, since he's going down tomorrow.Six Aces wrote:Well, as the Burger King once said, "Have it your way."
Just want to wish you guess good luck, sense it seems your really going to go through with this. Good Bye Cruel World! Hopefully not though. Come on guys are you seriously going to believe him. I bet he is sitting back in his comfy little chair laughing his head off about how easy it was to start a bandwagon over a false-claim like that. But it doesn't look like it matters now, because I'm at -1 so the next person who reads the thread is going to hammer me.-
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Trying to suggest the survival of a cop is scummy when the strong possibility exists of one or more docs- scummy.Phate wrote:I know congratulating the doctor is a scumtell, but I'm not sure about congratulating the killer... at any rate, I tip my hat to whoever offed Ryan for making an excellent choice.
Jesse, why are you alive? Am I confusing this with another game or did you not just claim cop?-
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Not at all. Put it this way, what answer could Jesse possibly have given to that question? It's clearly an insinuation that there is something suspect about JG's survival.Phate wrote:
"Why are you still alive? Didn't you claim cop? I might have this confused with another game." != "You are scummy because you're still alive and you claimed cop." Kind of a stretch, actually.Trying to suggest the survival of a cop is scummy when the strong possibility exists of one or more docs- scummy.-
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QFT.somestrangeflea wrote:
When it boils down to it, you're suspecting Shteven for thinking outside your box, which is quite sucky, TBH.kabenon wrote:It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother?
Jesse Gunn being Mafia would require the entire Day 1 situation to have been set-up, which, upon looking through the last few pages of yesterday, doesn't seem feasible. It would also require the discussion of such a tactic throughout the night, and I don't think any sane Mafia buddies would let half their team go out on a claiming, self-lynching gambit.
Jesse Gunn being an SK would allow him to use whatever tactics he wanted, fakeclaiming Cop or otherwise. The only problem with this is that there would be no way for him to know who was scum and who wasn't, unless he was just really lucky.
It is for these reasons that I am, until anything major suggests otherwise, going to discount the possiblity of JG being scum.
This is a very strange statement. In my experience, claimed cops more often than not live until there is a dead doctor.Phate wrote:
Here's what I did: I woke up to find that the claimed cop had posted. In my experience, claimed cops don't often live through the night.
[quote="Justin Playfair]
Phate,
Please correct me if you see a flaw in this reasoning, but randomly we have either 0, 1, or 2 doctors in town. Unless I’m mistaken in how this random choice is arrived at that means we have a 66% chance of having a doctor. For all intents and purposes we have a claimed cop in Jesse Gunn. Not only that, but we have a claimed cop whose claimed first night investigation struck scum. So, if we have a doctor I cannot think of a more logical person for the doctor to protect on night one.[/quote]
I was wondering about this actually. Is the number of doctors randomised with equal chances of 0, 1 and 2, or done in the manner of smaller C9s, ie two coin flips? (Which would mean 25% no doctors, 50% one and 25% two?)-
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This, to me, seems the LESS likely of those two wordings to indicate any kind of mafia slip. If he'd have said the mafia thought he would be doc-protected, that looks more like a slip to me.kabenon007 wrote:
But it was the wording that tipped me off to this fact. He doesn't say the mafia thought that he would be doctor protected, he just said, it's probable that he would have been, or something along those lines.-
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Can you explain this? Not 100% what you're saying here. I personally see little reason for scum *not* to bus a partner with a guilty on him. You may recall my pissed-offness in Stargate when wagoned for apparently having 'avoided' a Theo lynch, when in fact there was no point between his claim being busted and his death when I could have. Being on an obvscum wagon to me means absolutely nothing.Oman wrote:The problem with voting as mafia is 1) it solidifys your position and 2) the bold sticks out.
Opposing it is something I haven't really thought about. Anecdotally, one of my favourite newbscum tells in RTR games is being more sceptical than is justified about a claim.-
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I don't really remember you, I'm afraid. I play a lot of games. I see no reason for you to come out with something so eminently disprovable if not true, mind. Then again:somestrangeflea wrote:
The only other game I've been in with you was Newbie 349 where I mislynched LTGDoc... Incidentally, one of my posts was "This just screams Wishy-Washy."! So yeah, I'm going to support the meta on WishyWashyLTG...LTG wrote:I was in one or two with Fonz and SSF, so they can talk about that.
This is a ridiculously longwinded way of saying nothing at all.LaptopGun wrote:Myself, Phate, Shteven, and Oman all appear to have one vote each but I could have missed some, I did a very quick scan.
If posting from a Wii is anything like posting from an iPod Touch, I feel for you buddy.
While we're waiting for an official vote count, I'd like to figure out a few things from the vote of ysterday. I have something I'd like to address about the voting yesterday that I just figured out. Intially I thought, unless my count was inncorrect, that players piled on after Six Aces already had enough votes to be lynched. This was Shteven and SSF. Would anyone find it below the mafia to pile on after a scum buddy's fate has already been sealed in order to blend in with the town? I thought so. However, I was wrong. I thought Peers had hammered Six Aces and I made a comment about his advatar being appropriate. I was mistaken, as everyone knows that Peers voted for Jess. Oops. SO Shteven cast the deciding vote, hence my count is wrong int that regard. That does leave SSF casting a meaningless 11th vote, but it's within a reasonable time of Shteven's post. More importantly, he could have miscounted like I did. So that leaves me in the same place I was talking baout scumtells and metadefenses.
ZOMG! Oman is wagonning!Oman wrote:Yes, there is no universal scumtell, as something which is a scumtell for one person may not be for someone else.
I'm not sure I see the case on Kab. Can someone enlighten me?-
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Jokingly? Hardly. I'm not 'against' you either (Well, unless you're scum, in which case by definition...) The explanation is rather simpler- when I don't understand what someone's saying, or it can be interpreted in more than one way, I ask them what they're actually getting at so I can respond to it.Oman wrote:Jus
The Fonz: Are you opposed to me? Earlier I stated a thought on mafia theory and you gave a "please explain" and then you (I suppose Jokingly) did it again.-
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No, but my pointpreciselyis that BY SAYING YOU WOULDN'T MIND YOUR OWN LYNCH, YOU (if town) ARE LETTING SCUM KNOW THAT YOU ARE NOT A POWERROLE.
Therefore, on a meta level, no-one who states that they don't mind being lynched should ever be allowed to live (because it's an action that has no possible benefit for a town player).
Vote: Kabenon007-
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Hmmm. Not quite. That there is a 1/6 chance of something coming off doesn't mean there's a one in 6 chance of an SK actually trying it. If Jesse is SK, he was pulling, whilst not in immediate danger of lynch, a gambit which basically guarantees him not living to endgame. Chance of that is less than one in six.somestrangeflea wrote:]
Jesse being SK means he'd've had to guess that Six Aces was scum. There's a 1 in 6 (lolirony) chance of that happening, and therefore a 1 in 6 chance Jesse Gunn is the SK. STATISTICAL FACT.
MoD: Can you confirm the method used to determine how many cops/doctors there are?
I'm unsure on spacecase. In part, because I moved my vote to him for pretty much the same reason, though I hadn't been so vocal in opposing the lynch in the first place. In part, because I really don't see what scum has to gain from abandoning a stand in defence of a town player from which he could possibly gain some townie brownies, at a point when the guy's a nailed-on certainty to be lynched anyway.-
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The point is not that Kab was a bad lynch. The point is, it's hard to see how you could have genuinely believed what you said about it being a bad lynch that hurt the town, and then turn around 15 posts later and hammer the guy. What vollkan said is irrelevent. Vollkan wasneveragainst the lynch, so doesn't have a hypocrisy case to answer.-
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I have to disagree with every sinew in my body here. It isLaptopGun wrote:This sort of goes along with my last post. I believe Oman is town because he is trying to work out all of these statistical probability. I do not believe the mafia would "waste" as much space going into them.entirelyin character for scum to talk about game theory and statistical probability, because it will certainly be seen as contributing, but it doesn't really help find scum.
On the Jesse thing: Since we know there are not 'no' cops, one or two is equally likely by either system. It's nice to have the clarification, but it doesn't change one bit the fact that Jesse being a genuine cop is overwhelmingly the most likely scenario, and talking about it strikes me as a great way to distract the town.
What the hell is a night lynch? And why would Oman need to 'confirm' him to do it?I find it interesting, but I have never been interested in math and statistics so I'm reallly just going on the conclusions . On a hypothetical level, it could be scummy if Oman is trying to confirm Jess as a cop in order to night lynch him. That would mean Jess is mafia, though (could be SK as pointed out before).-
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Those do strike me as hugely different situations, Shteven. Spending all day pushing one lynch in direct opposition to another, then switching to hammer the one
I'm struggling to see a reason why town spacecase would do that, certainly. But then, I can't exactly see it being a rational scumplay either. So it's likely an irrational move either way. I'm trying to get my head around potential motivations.-
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This deserves an answer. It does seem that if you genuinely thought Jesse had been caught in a lie, it would be more than 'a bit scummy' and FOS-worthy.Shteven wrote:
So you thought there was only 1 cop; he was dead, and we had a claimed cop. Therefore, the claimed cop was lying.dahill1 wrote:oh right! i totally forgot about the 2 cops my bad
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Well, for starters, I'd say that the 'questioning Jesse/Cipher is just horrible play' thing is a generic town sentiment precisely because I forcefully argued for why this is the case.Shteven wrote: I am a bit concerned that no one seems to be discussing anyone other than these two, although I myself am guilty of this. In an attempt to get something else started, I'llFOS: The Fonz. This is based on nothing solid - so please don't overreact. But you seem to be echoing generic townie sentiments, for example specifically in post 448 where you basically just repeated my post. Who do you think are scum, Fonz? And if it's spacecase/dahill, then for the sake of argument please include a few people who aren't top picks for the day - I haven't seen much scum hunting from you so far. If I looked closely, I'm sure I could find others, but you're up first.
But, yeah, in general, no-one's really gone out on a limb yet. My strong impression when I read that dahill post was 'If he thinks he's been caught in a lie, why the hell isn't he voting?' and I couldn't really help it if you'd said so first.
A few thoughts:
This seems to me a little strawmannish. No-one, as far as I can see, is arguing that Spacecase ought not to be given chance to defend himself.MadCrawdad wrote:
Oman, I think the issue that folks may have with the wagon's speed, is that 'haste makes waste.' While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum, giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.Oman wrote:I'm with farside, its not growing too fast at all.
I also find complaining about the speed of the wagon is often an argument forwarded by scum, when their buddies are being run up and they don't want to be seen directly defending. So I could very much see a spacecase/MCD connection.
This isn't really the case. The point, to me, seems to be, that just being new is not in itself a defence against being scum. spacecase isn't being wagonned for being new- he's being wagonned for actions that might speak to insincerity. This is why we're trying to get him to elaborate on his thought process as much as possible, to see if we can see where he's coming from.Shteven wrote: As far as newbies can be scum too - certainly true. But that means you're attacking someone for being new, and the chances of them being scum are simply random (1/4 in this case, from initial setup). I'd be just as valid to single out Phate for destruction because he has a chance of being scum. I'm looking for a better-than-random lynch today. The Lynch All Lurkers is a point in your favor though Oman. I'll consider it for day 3 if we're both still here - and I'm not interested in lynching you day 2.
As I said, the better defence of spacecase, imho, is not that 'he's a newbie' but that, if scum, he didn't particularly stand to benefit from that action. It was pretty darn certain that KAb would be lynched anyway.
Also, fwiw, Oman has a history with lynch all lurkers as long as my arm.
Actually, it's a different contradiction. What Oman actually said was not 'IF SC is scum, MCD is town' but 'If SC is town, MCD is scum' implying that if SC is townie, you're likely scum trying to railroad. Now he's saying you might be a scumbuddy. This does seem very have cake/eat cake in terms of 'MCD is scummy either way.'MadCrawdad wrote: In this post, you specifically say that I'm scumbuddies with SC. Even throw an alignment-based FoS my way. This specifically says to me 'If SC is scum, then MadCrawdad is scum.'
Now here you say basically that 'if SC is scum then MadCrawdad is town.'
Not to me it doesn't. It just means that newbies are as likely as anyone to be scum, and we shouldn't just give them a free pass for being new. (Yes, I hate the newbie card with a vengeance. Meta me if you like).Shteven wrote:My post 473 was in reference to:
This makes it look like you're lynching someone for basically random odds.Oman, the end of post 468 wrote: NEWBIES CAN BE SCUM TOO!! YOUR BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THIS THOUGHT THAT "NEWBIE" ALWAYS MEANS TOWN. NEW PEOPLE CAN BE SCUM ABOUT 1/3 OF THE TIME. RAWRRRRRR!
Also, everyone seems to have given dahill a pass on the basis of his response. I'm not sure, if the initial thing was really worth attacking, then his response was adequate. And LTG's attack on dahill's entrance was uncharacteristically forceful, to then drop it pretty much immediately... something's odd there. Not necessarily scummy-odd, but I'm not sure of the rationale.-
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Because, forgive me, it's a silly question. If I had a particularly strong scumread on someone, I'd mention it, wouldn't I? I said yesterday that the reasoning behind the Kab wagon was not particularly strong, but the best we had. If I'd found a more obviously scummy-looking player, and Lord knows I looked, I'd have tried to form a wagon there. My acquiescence in the Kab wagon indicates I didn't. Since then, we've had a couple of interesting things- the spacecase switch, dahill's entry, Justin's death, and the Oman/MCD spat.Shteven wrote:I'm reading Fonz's response to me and it's certainly very town sounding. However, he didn't quite answer the question, which leaves me scratching my head a bit.
I've yet to see a good explanation of spacecase's action. Then again, it's conspicuous that no-one has explained why they think spacecase might have thought it in his interest to reverse his position like that, when the townie in question would have died anyway. Also, I'm mildly curious, if SC is scum, why didn't any competent scumbuddy try to ensure that spacecase had a reasonable case to hand before daybreak.
Also, shteven, I'd kinda like to know why we're singling me out here. No-one's really made a case against a player other than the 'obvious.' Why are you putting this to me alone?-
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Phate was the only other one I really thought had done anything bad yesterday, but if you re-read him as a whole, there's nothing really compelling to go on him.
Also, you're ignoring the possibility that whilst we discuss those two players, we might yet throw up something on someone else. Discussion often focusses on a coupla players for long periods of mafia games, doesn't it?-
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What the hell's whether or not Justin suspects him got to do with anything? If there is only one cop, then he was lying, then he must be lynched.dahill1 wrote:...but not if the other cop doesn't suspect him
Not in the situation where we know there is only one cop. In fact, had that been the case, we would have lynched Jesse before you got here. If you'd voted Jesse, apparently not understanding there could be multiple cops, it'd make reasonable sense. To believe that Jesse was fakeclaiming, but it's ok because Justin didn't say anything about it, is ludicrous.and also imagine if i did vote for jesse. everyone would have gone after me for voting the cop (after he claimed).
Also, it wasn't just that. It's that you jumped on the leading wagon without really appearing to think about it, or adding anything as well.-
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I'm mildly curious as to why no-one's answered my question about what they think SC's motive to act like that as scum could have been.
I'd also like him to answer Vollkan's questions. What was so scummy about Kab's, effectively, giving up that turned him from likely town to likely scum in your eyes?-
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I've already explained this- there's no possible benefit. The Kab lynch was the only game in town. He was going to be lynched, whether or not spacecase supported it, the deadline was looming fast, Kab was at -1 and had basically appeared to give up, and there was no other wagon available. SC stood to gain a few townie points by defending a townie.MadCrawdad wrote:
Why, if SC is scum, do you think he wouldn't have acted the way he did?The Fonz wrote:I'm mildly curious as to why no-one's answered my question about what they think SC's motive to act like that as scum could have been.
By switching, having been adamant about Kab's innocence, he didn't further any scum objectives, since Kab would have been lynched anyway, and he just made himself look more suspicious due to the difficulty of reconciling the two positions.
Now, it's possible spacecaseisjust really dumb scum. If people believe that, I'd like them to say so. If there's some other reason you think scum SC would have chosen to hammer Kab, I'd like to hear that also.
@Oman: No, I wasn't talking about lurking. Lurking has obvious benefits for scum, though it is harder to get away with when you're the focus of everyone's attention.-
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Spacecase, whilst you're at it:
OK, so here, we have two posts before saying a Kab lynch would 'only hurt us' we have SC FOSing him. In addition, we have the FOS being based on the fact that 'using feelings is a weak argument.' But SC is now justifying his Kab vote on the basis of gut?Spacecase wrote:
Could you please clarify what you mean by the last time you were right? Also you have quite a weak argument using "feelings" as your evidence in my view.kabenon007 wrote:Come now vollkan, you have to admit that some words, some turns of phrase, cause you to feel a certain way about them. Your words merely caused a scummy sensation in the pit of my stomach. I was right last time.FoS Kalenon007
Any chance of an explanation?-
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I don't know, but I find this comment extremely scummy itself. It's not scummy AT ALL that spacecase hasn't claimed. Claims are bad things, and should not be made unless there's some huge town advantage to be gained (cop with guilty) or that player's lynch is otherwise inevitable (he's at -1 and someone is threatening to hammer, or a deadline's impending).Rigel wrote:. I honestly can't believe Spacecase hasn't claimed yet, which is supporting my suspicions of his scumminess--he doesn't have to make up a fake claim until he's asked, and this gives him more time to do so.
It probably doesn't mean anything, since spacecase is likely scum himself. But if he were to be lynched and come up town...
What do you mean by 'not a good thing?' Do you think it means SC is scum, and scum are refusing to bus him? Or do you think it's a 'bad thing' because it means SC is likely innocent?Shteven wrote:Agreed. The fact that spacecase hasn't been lynched yet wouldn't bother me if there were people voting for other people, or any other viable wagon forming. But no one* is voting for anyone but spacecase, and spacecase isn't lynched. Together, not a good thing.
*if I recall there's 1 non-spacecase vote.-
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Sure, I didn't notice your post. Was reading through in chronological order, so my 'announce intention' post was directly in response to his 'I don't mind being lynched.' The second time you pointed it out, well, I guess i was caught up in the discussion I was having with Kab and didn't notice it.
I mean, spacecase's vote didn't feel like a hammer: it didn't mention that it was a hammer, Kab hadn't been given chance to claim, etc.-
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Guys, this game is stalling for a very obvious reason. Spacecase is lurking.
He's not answered half the case against him, he hasn't scumhunted all game, and now he's holding the game up unnecessarily.
Mod: prod spacecase
It appears he hasn't posted anywhere onsite for four days. If he shows up and doesn't provide one hell of an explanation, I'm voting him.-
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Only scum have a reason to self-hammer. And you should know my position on self-voting town players by now.vollkan wrote:
Do you think that putting an under-pressure who is looking disgruntled at L-1 prior to a claim is really a good idea? He's in the "critically at risk" category for self-hammers.Fonz wrote: Vote: Spacecase
Claim now, please.
Claiming means to say what your role is.-
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1. Well yeah, they do. But the lynch -1 is indicative that I want him dead, excepting a convincing claim. I've never seen a newbie powerrole self-hammer.Phate wrote:Just because town shouldn't self-hammer doesn't mean they don't, especially newbies. And if he is scum, why would you give him a chance to self-hammer?
2. Why would we care? It's dead scum either way.
Well yes, but that's what I mean by 'my position.' Anyone who self-votes I would demand by lynched, and never waiver, because it's my most hated thing on scum. If he's going to self-vote in such a way that actually causes his death, then it just saves me the effort.vollkan wrote:
Exactly. Only scum have a reasonable excuse to self-hammer. But unreasonable newb town also do it.Fonz wrote: Only scum have a reason to self-hammer. And you should know my position on self-voting town players by now.-
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But doesn't the likelihood of them being right or wrong influence the extent to which they can be trusted?dahill1 wrote: and i never said the fact that they are confirmed means they are right or wrong. but shouldn't we trust what the cop says more than someone else? this is not me trying to "act town", it's what i genuinely believe; that cops should have more say in a lynch than other unconfirmed players.
Oh, I so have not. I've made ONE POST commenting on something you've said prior to that last clarification, and I've spent most of the last day commenting on spacecase and dahill. I've also responded to shteven more than you.LaptopGun wrote:
Fonz, yep you're right I could turn up Godfather or Serial Killer. I am neither. I doubt I need to say this, but I am not mafia either. I am 100% vanillia townie. You've spent the last day impeaching my credibility. Did you speak up when I was questioning cipher's/Jess's credibility? I don't believe so. I understand you want a lynch of someone real bad, but you might want to chill out as we could just as easily lynch a townie. And you wouldn't want that, would you?
I've commented to disagree with one post you've made before, and I gave reasons there. If you don't see why it's in the town's interests to point out that dahill is wrong to refer to you as confirmed town, then I don't really know what I can say to you.
Also: why in the name of whatthefudge did you just claim vanilla townie whilst under no pressure whatsoever? That's incredibly antitown.-
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Why would you unvote the leading wagon, merely because it has 'slowed down?' Do you believe that it slowing down has any correlation with his alignment?
Why is Phate more suspicious than spacecase? Complete this sentence. 'Phate seems to me at this point more likely to be scum than anyone else because...'-
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In fact, only one person has unvoted SC to go to Phate. One has unvoted to vote you. One person each who was previously uncommitted has gone to you and Phate.
So we now have a situation of four for spacecase, three for Phate including dahill, and two for dahill, including phate.
I personally don't see why anyone who voted spacecase in the first place has hopped off. It's not like he's done anything town.-
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It doesn't matter if it bugs me. What matters is that it's something that's obviously to the town's detriment if done by a town player, and clearly benefitting to a godfather or SK (since it makes you less likely to be NKed).
So in other games, do you just go, 'Oh, and by the way guys, I'm a doctor?'-
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