Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Skruffs]

Howdy Hey..
So I've read the rules, I'm curious about the ballots thing.

If, say, I have someone as my number 1 today, and neither I nor them are lynched... do they become my automatic vote tomorrow? Or does it go to the second person on my list, even if the first is still alive?

[Skruffs]

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Ectomancer
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Max
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro

Hey guys, read to page three and decided to put out some 2-cents on stuff.
First of all, Shy Guy is at the top of the list for trying to 'set' the way that people do their lists.

I think that if we set a 'rule' about how to arrange things on the list, that the mafia will try hard to sabotage that rule. I believe that if you say "Let's all agree on who's the most TOWN and put them at the bottom", you are giving Scum a free ride to the bottom; All they have to do, then, is play like an innocent townie, working on people's good graces enough to get them close to the bottom. Their partners can be the 'scum', trying to antagonize players enough to get others suspicious of them, etc.

I don't like the idea of having 'one rule' with which to determine how to do our lists. I think that the best solution is for all of us to think independantly. In this system, Libertarianism is the best rule of thumb. Trust yourself and noone else.

And for that reason, I have put Yosarian2 second on the list.
I really did *NOT* like his warning to be suspicious of people who are changing their list close to the end of the day. Especially coupled with Shy Guy's suggestion: It leads to a sort of 'mass hypnosis' wherein people are looking for the 'most popular' players to put as 'town' (And by popular I do not mean 'popular' but rather 'best vibes from', which is then ENFORCED by the fear that going against 'the crowd' will result in retribution. If people want to change their vote at the end of the day, they *Should*, because in the end, you have to follow your gut.


Everyone else is taken from Max's list, page four. I don't have much reads on anyone else, and I think that's a good start. Plus I can change it later. I also thought i twas important to get my two cents in there.

[Skruffs]

The whole point of Shy Guy's thing is to focus on the end game and not everything before then. I think the best thing is for all of us to discuss and put the scummiest people up top. Don't let an oily scum get to end game. In fact, I would go so far as to suggest, just in case, that the most TOWN player be lynched close to the beginning, too.

I know I will be changing my votes , too. There's a BIG difference between "scum might move en masse" and "be wary of anyone changing their lists close to deadline" - for instance, the first suggests scum groups, the second suggests single people. Maybe you meant it, originally, to be 'a block' but it's not how I remember reading it.

[Skruffs]

It was a pretty quick skim through on that page. I was startled by the 'coupling' I saw of your theory onto his.. conspiracy theories started brewing.

[Skruffs]

apologies for the delays here, fellas, I replaced in out of gratitude towards stoofer for letting me play in pirates vs ninjas which is at the moment a much mroe dynamic game.

I need to update my voting ballot, etc. I will , too. Workign outside restricts what i can post in this gmae (cuz i'm using my cell while outside) so i am more reluctant yo post to this game. should be changing soon though.


i will post to this game officially sometime after lunch today.

[Skruffs]

I don't care where I am on the lynch list, the only thing that matters is making sure that there are two townies at the bottom. I discredit any 'wholesale' attempts at ordering people, though.

Thesp and ectomancer's percentage talk is odd.
Why would you use 25% and 75%?
1st of all, there's only 11 roles outside of ectomancer's, not 12, and he doesn't include himself as scum (whether he is or not), so yosarian's chances are actually 27.3%. (Big whoop)

Similarly, both of you seem to be taking the position that ectomancer, as town, would be more willing to give up his vote to 'another townie' than ectomancer as scum would be. Basically ectomancer's tact is one i would consider to be used by a survivor, in a regular game; follow the wagons. Not only is ectomancer not inputting his own 2-cents, he's also putting the impetus on yosarian to 'find scum' for him. If he is scum, this effectively get yosarian lynched along side him, without leading back to scum partners directly (unless yos figures them out on his own).

If they are both town, ecto's play is still not very helpful.

*note to self, put ecto up top and drop yos a spot*

[Skruffs]

Sorry about the lagging, catching up from page 6...

Skruffs, your suspicion of me is absurd.

You are not above suspicion, regardless of how good you think your suggestion is or how good it seems. I am absolutely allowed to question any player's motivations in this game; don't try to deny or restrict that freedom.

My suggestion for how we play the game is not categorically different than the suggestion "let's put scummy players at the TOP". "let's put town players at the BOTTOM" is an obvious point of general strategy in this set up just as its counterpart is, and your finding me scummy for suggesting we approach this game from both sides is rather perplexing. I cannot even comprehend your point of view, and that is remarkable for me.

That is because both sides are not categorically different, and both sides are WRONG... any system that is set up, the scum can attempt to infiltrate and corrupt. Forcing each player to individually contribute, rather than trying to organize bandwagons, is the only way we can safely win, I think.

I don't understand your comments about Yosarian2, either. You aren't making any sense at all to me. Can you explain better?

What do you want explanations of?

Also, Skruffs, lynching the most town player early is quite ridiculous, as if they are the towniest player in the game, i would want them near the bottom towards the final 3-4.

Scum only have to act town for ONE DAY. Really think about that before you discredit the idea of lynching the 'obv town' player. We don't get to redo our guesses.

I've already said what i think of ecto's 'blind following' gambit and haven't caught up in responses, more to come in next post.

(or in this post, i am responding as i read after all)

sarc says he doesn't like yos's 'confirmedness', yos responds by asking who sarc would confirm. odd.

opie is in similar brain wave lengths as i am regarding the townie/yosarian situation.

thesp thinks i am town, that's odd. but is it a scum tell? Hmm. i like post 147, it's informative without being too opinionated OR too watered down, (And condolences thesp)

yos: why is it insane that you 'are about to get lynched' for seeming pro town? does anything strike you as odd that so many people are 'clearing' you so early in the day?

NExt: Page 7

[Skruffs]

Page 7:
Maxs point system.. interesting. I don't know how I would implement that; i already have slight biases and don't know how to 'judge' the level of bias.

I copied max's(?) ballot and modified it slightly, but that is not because I agree with Max's list; i am completely neutral about him; i just wanted a list and it was the first one i saw. I think (said before) that denouncing your own opinions in a game is unhelpful at best, you are literally removing a voice from the game if town and avoiding all responsibility of suspicion if scum. I really don't like it.

153: opie is speaking clearly, if timidly. interesting that the bulk of his suspicions lay on people who were suspicious of people he found to be town, which isn't generally a good way to see things as town. Remember to keep in mind this is a one-day game.

154: ah, me and nocmen react the same way, bonus points of nocmen.

155: opie's response is odd: He uses the same three people he defends in 153 to suggest that he disagrees with them in who he's voting for; it strikes me as he's claiming 'distancing' in this post, but it's too obvoius to be that, isn't it?

156: Ecto has a strange wa of defnding against opie: "Why do you think I'm scummy, I'm mimicking someone you say you think is town." is how I translate his argument.

157: shy guy tends to in every post point out who hasn't answered his questions, but hsi questions generally are vague to start off with. IV"e noticed it three times in this game, unless i am doubling up on a post. His urgency to have everyone 'lined up in a row' is further evidenced by his suspicion of players he can't 'decrypt' - unfortunately with me in this game it means i am very likely to be high up on his list the rest of the day.

his diagram in the next post is an effort to explain why everyone should agree whole heartedly on the order to lynch, however, that suggestion is breeding disaster. Who is going to agree to eb lynched first? Who will agree to lynch someone they think is town, first, if they are 'designated' to be second? What form of majority should eb used to determine everything else?

which brings up a very good point

.

Perhaps our best way to do this is to faux-lynch each other, in a simulation of what would happen if our mock voting was taken serious. each player gets 'one vote' per day, and once a majority of 'living' players is reached all ohers are ignored, that player's 'votes' no longer count in the future and we continue on. it would be imperfect, and 'no reveal', but it might be useful regardless. Also, knowing who is 'lynched' at each day can help determien the order we each want to do our lists.

I don't like nocmen accusing shy guy of being more experienced than he lets on to be; why does it matter? if he's an alt, he was an alt before he got his role.

anderson: posts ballot, explanation to follow whee! Suspense.

161:
max's bump of shy guy isn't quite explainede, or maybe i am misunderstanding something.

162 my place holder post, man that guy is scummy, lurking like that. That was a rough week, and i guess it hadn't sunk in that this game is very limited in length.

thesp:
i'm sure there are at least 3 players trying to 'break the game', if you know what i mean. Why are his attempts protown?

opie's 166 is written like an explanation but reads like a self defense.

167: thesp call out shy guy as an alt, lulz, i'd think i was reading ahead and posting stuff as speculation if i didn't know better.

168: oh, i posted right after, so maybe i did read ahead. bah.

169 :semantics

ecto:
regardless of if you are right or not, or town or not, your play isn't helpign the rest of town hunt scum. your post 169 is saying 'what if i'm right', but you are basically sayign you aREN'T right, because you are letting yosarian choose for you, and regardless of what yosarian says, you can only know he is town, if YOU AREN'T. Your abundance of faith is disturbing, and therefore more likely scum. or in other words: "Classic Buddying"

you sholdn't be consolidating anyone's ballot, you should be 'out in the trenches' like the rest of us.
that you seem to relish the confliction that is being caused, even to the point of the person you are basing your votes on being considered MORE SUSPICIOUS, strikes me that you are in fact just trying to discredit a 'town' player, as scum. fos fos fos.


170: shy guy shuts down alt talk. odd.
what posts did i not respond to shy guy?

171 - oman has filler posting.

172 followed by opie's.

173: yos: what do YOU think about me? you seem to be skirting an issue in askign thesp about me.

174: this seems like a resignation speech. again, yosarian being TOWN does not mean he is CORRECT in his suspicions. I, as scum, have exploited confirmed town's suspicions in multiple games, it's stupid to assume someone knows more than you in a game where all town are informaionless and only scum have info. stupid and dangerous.

end of page 7, pag e8 after lunch!

[Skruffs]

Page 8:
I am liking Opie's mistake there about the scum. He's seemed low key and earnest through the day so far; it strikes me that this is an honest mistake and not a planted one.

Ecto still trying to validate his plan; still not seeing it.


Shy guy:
Again, what do you want me to respond to in regards to you and yos?

Thesp:
It's not much difference, day one. But look at how it effects the game, later on.

Ecto:
You are more and more scum with every post. If I was scum, I would probably be playing exactly like you.

shy guy:
What about the voting plan did you misunderstand - and seeing it like that, do you understand my own view on how things should be done?

max:
What about oman strikes your fancy?

posts 195 and 196 are boring.

Makign a new code list, influenced heavily by yos, thesp, shy guy, and ecto. Opie too.

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

MOD: Spring lullaby in Ectomancer's post should be Skruffs, and ShyGuy in Opie's should be Shy Guy. Sorry for the nitpicking, but trying tro do condorcet only works if your tables work! <3

gonna post this now and then provide full data results of what would happen as of this post right after

[Skruffs]

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

This should be a correct and accurate table. (It's what I am using anyways)

[Skruffs]

thath's cool... I've done the work down to 6 people alive, which would be a loss if we hadn't lynched one scum by then. Lemme post, then i'll do the rest
(Sorry for the HUGE post that is about to happen)

[Skruffs]

[col]

andersonw

Max

Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Max

Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy

Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen

Max

Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp

Max

Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Max

VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Max

VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer

shy guy

VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max

Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2

Shy Guy

Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Max

Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Round 1, everyone not colored is eliminated, then nocmen and yosarian's votes from oman and van are discarded and they move down to hte next available candidate; oman chose max, van chose Shy Guy.
Round two, opie and ecto are both eliminated, with four players' votes being redistrubted. These are alaso evenly matched, and max gets the lynch. (This is all baasically the same as what Stoofer provided for us, except with fancy graphics.
Max is eliminated, we remove his table and keep going

[col]

andersonw

Oman

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie

Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen

Skruffs
Sarcastro

opie

Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

VanDamien

Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Ectomancer

Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

VanDamien

Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Ectomancer

Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer

shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Ectomancer

opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2

Shy Guy
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Ectomancer

Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

day two round 1: Fight!
ecto*2
vandamien*2
yos*2
opie*2
shy guy*1
Oman*1
nocmen*1

Oman, Shy Guy, and Nocmen are eliminated:
andersonW, who was voting Oman, votes Ectomancer(3)
Nocmen, who was voting Shy Guy, votes opie(3)
Oman, who was voting Nocmen, votes Opie(4)

opie*4
ecto*3
vandamien*2
yos*2
the people who were voting vandamien: Sarc and Shy guy, are pushed to vote for Ecto, and, the people voting yosarian (Thesp and Vandamien) are also pushed to vote for Ecto, who is eliminated.
Interestingly:
Sarc, shy guy, thesp, and vandamien's ballots all put 'dummy candidates' into round one which allowed other players they 'considered scummy' to be eliminated round one, 'forcing' them to vote for players they consider more town later on in the round. Also at this point, Yosarian has 'lost' two of the three players

[col]

andersonw

Oman

VanDamien

Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw

[col]

Oman

Nocmen

Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie

Shy Guy

VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs

VanDamien

andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

[col]

Sarcastro

VanDamien

Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

Shy Guy

VanDamien

Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

shy guy

VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Oman

VanDamien

Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2

Shy Guy

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

VanDamien

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Shy Guy

shy guy, nocmen, vandamien, yosarian2 *2
opie, oman*1 <-eliminated
After the first round, yos and anderson are forced to vote Vandamien, , putting him at 4, and with three other players (nocmen/yosarian/shy guy) at 2.
vandamien*(4)
nocmen, shy guy, yosarian2 *(2)
I am not sure if all of these players wound be eliminated, making vandamien the only candidate and thus lynched, or if one of these candidates would be eliminated, if a 'next stage' vote would be done wherein all players voting for the lower 3 would get a 'secondary vote' to see if that breaks the tie, or what. let's assume it's the 'forward voting', which would apply temporary votes as if each player voting for the tied three players was forced to vote for their next player.

Nocmen, voting for Shy Guy, would get a 'secondary' vote on Yosarian2 (2.1)
Oman, voting for Nocmen, would get a secondary vote on Shy Guy (2.1)
Opie, voting for Nocmen, would get a secondary vote on Vandamien (4.1)
Skruffs, voting for Shy Guy, would get a secondary vote for VanDamien(4.2)
Thesp, voting for Yosarian2, would get a secondary vote for Nocmen (2.1)
VanDamien, voting Yosarian2, would get a secondary vote on Shy Guy (2.2)
to balance it, all people voting Vandamien would get 'double weight' on their votes, making VanDamien (4.6).
I could be misconstruing what the 'looking forward' thing is, but the end totals would be
VanDamien - 4.6
Shy Guy - 2.2
Nocmen - 2.1
Yosarian - 2.1
So I would gues Yosarian and Nocmen would be eliminated, and rounds would continue as usual, so that's what i showed on the thing.
VanDamien eliminated 6-4.

[col]

andersonw

Oman

Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro

Oman

Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

Oman

Nocmen

Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Shy Guy
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

Sarcastro

Oman

Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Oman

Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

shy guy

Nocmen

Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

Nocmen

Sarcastro
opie
Oman
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Oman

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Shy Guy

Day 4:
Oman *3
Shy *2
NocMen *2
Yos2 *1
Opie *1

Yos, Opie knocked out
Oman *4
NocMen *3
Shy *2

Shy knocked out, results in Oman being eliminated, 5-4.
This is kind of fun

[col]

andersonw

Skruffs

Nocmen

Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Skruffs
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

[col]

Sarcastro

Shy Guy

Nocmen

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Nocmen

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

shy guy

Nocmen
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

Nocmen

Sarcastro
opie
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

Thesp

Skruffs

andersonw

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Shy Guy

shy guy 3
Skruffs 1-2
noc men 1-3
sarcastro 1-1
yosarian2 1
opie 1

BOOOOOO!

I did the 'second tier' thing to see who would have the most votes after each tied-for last place person was eliminated. Yosarian and opie got no additional votes after a single elimination, so I eliminated them.

shy guy 3
Skruffs 2
noc men 2
sarcastro 1
sarc eliminated puts Shy Guy voting Nocmen at 3,
Skruffs eliminated after that, which frees Yos and AndersonW to both vote Nocmen, who is eliminated 5-3.
Interestingly, Shy Guy was a shoe-in, I thought, to be lynched by this point, as i believe he has been second or third place every single round. He had 2 more votes than everyone else, but every other player had nocmen higher than him in their lists, so he garnered no more votes.

[col]

andersonw

Skruffs

Opie

Sarcastro

Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

opie

Sarcastro

Skruffs
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

[col]

Sarcastro

Shy Guy

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

shy guy

andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

Sarcastro

opie
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Sarcastro

Shy Guy

With 7 people alive, it is important to note that this is lylo land if one scum has not been lynched by this point.

skruffs 1
sarc 2
shy guy 2
yosarian2 1
opie 1
opie, yos, and I are dropped...
sarc 5
Shy Guy 2
Amazing. Shy guy survives another round, while sarc, who had not yet been a contender, burns in flames.
At this point, if not one of those players were scum, we'd lose, but based on who's remaining i'm willing to think one or two of them probably were <- opinion

[Skruffs]

[col]

andersonw

Skruffs

Opie
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

opie

Skruffs

andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

[col]

Shy Guy

Thesp

Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie

Skruffs

shy guy

andersonw

Thesp

Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

opie

Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Shy Guy

Skruffs 2
Thesp 1
shy guy 1
Yosarian21
opie 1

4 way tie, going the next step we get:
Skruffs 2-1
Thesp 1-2
shy guy 1
Yosarian21
opie 1-1
so shy guy and yosarian2 are eliminated. (This doesn't look good for me, admittedly)

ope 2
Skruffs 2
Thesp 2
a three way tie.. intriguing. Taking this 'next step' further, with all six voters, we get:
ope 2-2
Skruffs 2-2
Thesp 2-2
which is another tie.
And then the third one is(this is only additional votes as all parties will not vote for themselves):


ope 2-2-1
Skruffs 2-2-1
Thesp 2-2-1
So i am going to presume that in this situation that i would be lynched because I had the most votes in the first round, even though i only have 1/2 the number needed to win. (Mod can correct me if i am assumign falsely)

Bye Skruffs

[col]

andersonw

Opie

Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

opie

andersonw

Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

Shy Guy

Thesp

andersonw

Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

opie
Shy Guy

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
andersonw
Shy Guy

opie 2
ander 1
thesp 1
yos 1

Three way tie at final five! Whoo!

opie 2
ander 1-2
thesp 1-1
yos 1
Yos is dropped...

opie 2
ander 2
thesp 1
Thesp is dropped....
Leading to an Ander lynch, 3-2.
If two of Thesp, Opie, Yosarian, and Shy Guy are scum, they would win at this point.

[col]

opie

Thesp

Yosarian2
ShyGuy

[col]

Shy Guy

Thesp

Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Yosarian2

opie

Shy Guy

[col]

Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Shy Guy

Thesp 2, opie 1, yos 1
Yosarian is dropped, bringing it to
Thesp 2, Opie 2
after that there is a tie, so presumably Thesp is lynched (like I was) with the most votes in round one.

[col]

opie

Yosarian2
ShyGuy

Shy Guy

Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
Shy Guy

Finally we get this: A simple, round one majority lynch on Yosarian, with Shy Guy and Opie as the last two standing. this assumes that only one of these three players is scum, of course, otherwise the game wouldn't go this far, one way or the other.

So that's that!
Nobody has changed their list yet, so it's not completely irreverent, but it gives all of you a good feel of how the game works, and most importantly, how people can mistakenly lynch people they think are town simply by trying to vote people that other people aren't voting. It's changed the way *I* think about the game, for sure.

[Skruffs]

good point, yosarian - I had not taken into accoutn that the scum could bus their buddies even past lylo

No that's fine, Anderson, I kind of just winged the parts I didn't have anything to go on - the process I sued fwas from teh wikipedia entry for "Instant Scratch Off" or whatnot for this kind of voting proceedures.

[Skruffs]

Max, you shouldn't bump me up as more likely town because I did the 'final three' break down; It helps everyone, town AND scum. It's just as likely that I was show my scum buddies how to set traps as I was showing town how to avoid them, and my 'post analysis' things were more just me showing i was catching up with the game as anything else.

Nocmen took the summary (flawed as it is) in a different light; putting pressure on the final three players.

I personally think it's interesting that Shy GUy and Yosarian are in the 'final two' or SIX of the 11 possible ballots each can show up in, TOGETHER, and each shows up in two additional 'bottom two' ballots, seperately, as well, inferring that 10 of the 12 players believe that yosarian and/or shy guy is town.

I will probably be keeping opie towards the bottom of my own list for the rest of the day; I'm not too happy with Shy guy making it to final three when he's trying to force everyone in the game to adopt a set plan of final three in the first place.

[Skruffs]

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their

buddies

. That also means their buddies cant change

their

ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

That is absolutely insane. Are you literally threatening EVERYONE in the game that if they attempt to do ANY FURTHER scum hunting that they should be lynched???
I'm glad I have you at the top of my list.

[Skruffs]

Also, for hte record, the results aren't accurate : I believe at least one player has changed their ballot since I did the run down AND it has ben explained that my tie-breaking setup isn't accurate either.

[Skruffs]

So not only do YOU not want to post your OWN list, you also want to keep everyone ELSE from posting their own lists as well? ANd coincidentally the person you are following after just happens to make it to final three?
And, also coincidentally, you being lynched first still results in your scum team winning if ANY of them make it to final three?

[Skruffs]

I think Opie should be in final two. I think Ecto should not.
I think I understand, now that I have done all that, why Shy Guy wanted to focus on the most townie players rather than scum; I believe that my earlier suspicions on Yosarian's badly worded (or at least badly interpreted) "Be suspicious of people changing their votes near deadline" was also aggravated by what I read as attempts, by you, to form a sort of communistic 'voting bloc' without actually going into WHO the voting bloc's ballots would be decided. The game is literally about a voting block; all of us voting each other. So trying to form a majority of the 12 we already have makes it a LOT easier for scum to win, especially if they are IN that voting block; ESPECIALLY if they are the LEADERS of that block. Since I have done all of that, I now understand the importance of the 'voting block' - so that even if someone DOES change their vote after march 3rd, they will at least have MORE resistance to go through.

I'm not sure why you are trying to get me to move you further down on my list, Shy Guy? I believe you were safe all the way to final two, so it seems strange that you would be trying to form a deal with me. While I'd love to be alive when this is over, I don't think I should be in final two *just* because I put some grunt work (BAD grunt-work at that) into breaking the code as we had it. Also; It could have a reverse effect; if I try to snuggle down closer to final two, I believe it would be easier for scum (like Ecto) to rail against it, get me lynched EARLIER, and someone else would take my place. Regardless, it's *my* prerogative to find two OTHER townies, and try and get THEM to final two. At least, that is what it is right now.

I will reiterate that Opie does stand out to me as one of those townies.


@lynching most town player
That's just healthy paranoia there. I think it's a good show of faith for someone who is trying to help the town to offer to be lynched first, to (if scum misleading town) to hinder mafia's chances of making it to final three and (if town) proving as such. Although we only get one shot, it would also make the most pro-town players focus on finding OTHER players rather than trying to explain themselves. (That's also what iffs me about Shy Guy's proposal towards me)

There's no reason to really 'go after' ecto at this point. He's either scum, or bored/sacrificial townie. He's not going to make it to final nine, much less final three, so his own ballot (Which he has himself derided) doesn't matter
and won't affect the game. This, of course, all being his own idea.
In the case that he IS scum, I don't know if Ecto/Sarc are a pair, or if it's honest distancing. Same with Ecto/Yos. It *seems* that Ecto is trying to 'tarnish' the views of other players in the game, one player at a time, while carefully avoiding scum hunting himself. Should we take his 'bait' and be more wary of those he associates with or is his attempts 'genuine'?

Anderson, Nocmen, VanDamien, all of these players need to pipe up or something, they are coasting. None of them make it too far in the game, at this juncture, but I think that their opinions should be more fully fleshed out.

My own opinion is that everyone should be allowed to change their vote counts for the next two days; Scummy changes can be pursued and rectified, and players arbitrarily changing their votelists after March 3rd should be regarded with suspicion UNLESS they have already explained it in an earlier post. There is no reason to be totalitarian, but we SHOULD be Methodical, as the game's title suggests.

[Skruffs]

Interesting.
I'll try redoing a new 'run down' tonight...
(Though it would be awesome if there was a java application to do it for us, ti would allow us much more freedom/safety in adjusting our ballots if we have instantaneous results from it)

[Skruffs]

Thank you for your support of one of my plays. You now apparently understand the concept of scum having to fight through a voting bloc. As I have no other information on this game (unlike a certain informed minority), with probability on my side, it makes entire sense for

me

to form a bloc on my own, and in a manner of my choosing.
Why do you think there was some rather vocal opposition from select players? Scum quickly realized that if the bloc formed randomly behind town, they would lose, and could do nothing about it. In addition, because town holds the higher percentage of population, the chances of randomly picking town were much greater.
Judging by reactions to Yosarian2 that I'm seeing, I picked correctly.

One thing you seem to be not mentioning is that scum do not have to fight through a voting block if the voting block is aligned with them. Your current play suggests that you are a scum person more interested in 'taking down' other townies more than defending himself; ie I think you have already written yourself off and are now trying to keep one of your scumbuddies in the final three, because you think it works well.

Why did you move Opie, who was in the final three, down to half way? For someone who thinks only scum are going to change their lists, you are being REMARKABLY hypocritical. I don't think it will matter; you are the second or third person gone anyways; but I think it's interesting that the one person in final three of Shy Guy, Yosarian, and Opie who DOESN'T have someone mimicking his vote ballot just got 'docked' by you. Or is it because I pointed out that Opie IS probably town, is that why you have dropped your support for him? Again, whichever reason, you are playing as a suicidal mafia.

As for vocal opposition; well OBVIOULSLY the only people who would have a disagreement with you is scum, ectomancer. You're just so obviously pro town that people are scared of you- and your attempts to keep 'scum' from manipulating YOUR SETUP will only be resisted by the scum that, remarkably enough, all seem to disagree with you.

That's just healthy paranoia there. I think it's a good show of faith for someone who is trying to help the town to offer to be lynched first, to (if scum misleading town) to hinder mafia's chances of making it to final three and (if town) proving as such. Although we only get one shot, it would also make the most pro-town players focus on finding OTHER players rather than trying to explain themselves. (That's also what iffs me about Shy Guy's proposal towards me)

Sound like anyone you know? Some of us are already focused on finding OTHER players, and not bothering to defend ourselves.

Except your definition of 'finding other players' is "discredit any player who disagrees with me", which, while egotistical for you, iresults in a lot of meaningless noise.

I have a question for you. What good will it do you if a player turns up town upon death? You can't go back and alter your vote when you realize they were town and were

right

, or at least

truthful

in what they say.
In a normal mafia game, I could agree with you. In this game, you are using an invalid excuse to lynch someone that you yourself think looks "most townie".
Also, how does putting the "most townie" at the top of the lynch list prevent other pro-town players from having to explain themselves?
Or do you mean, whoever is most townie should simply accept that they are going to die, and should stop forcing other players to defend their vote on them? That way "pro-town" players wont be distracted by having to explain an illogical vote?

I see I hit a nerve.
If mafia are leading the current vote bloc, and are unwilling to be lynched for it, that results in three people being unaccounted for at the end of the game. A mafia who chooses the 'pro town' gambit can very well PUSH for two townies as final two, and simply work on the player to leave at final four to have him as slightly more town than the other two, and then change his own ballot to make one of hte other two go before him, and win. He doesn't have to account for other mafia members because HE's tryign to win.

A "pro-town" mafia player who agrees to be lynched first is making it IMMEASURABLY harder for himself to win; he has to get one of his BUDDIES to final two WITHOUT looking like that guy's buddy and while still being pro town. A pro town player who IS pro town only has to focus on ACTUALLY getting pro town playerse to final two - WHICH YOU yourself have said is easier to do.

Full of holes Skruffs. Put scum at the top of your list, put town at the bottom. That's how you win. Stop trying to outguess the play. You only open the ballot to scum manipulation (though moving the "most townie" to the top of the list, and requesting that nobody even have to explain their vote is scummy manipulation in itself)

You make it sound so easy, and yet you are completely unwilling to form lists of your own, and I think it's because you don't want to give away who your scum partners are. You don't like anything more than totalitarian (YOUR totalitarian) command of the game, and you don't seem to be capable of the idea that there is more voices with opinions than your own. Either that, or you are capable of it, but you find it easier and more profitable for you to stifle them.

Either way, you are scum, you ARE at the top of my list, and your flailing around is only going to wind up getting your partners killed. So continue, please.

[Skruffs]

apologiges for not getting that run down done, i was ambushed by a surprise moving away party sunday and ... well i'm still a little drunk, don't tell my boss...we enter our deadline range today so it's time for all of us to make sure this game gets high priority, if you didn't alleady i need to catch up but expect a nother post asap.

[Skruffs]

Skruffs, why, exactally, should a pro-town person be willing to get himself lynched? It seems like if you're in a position where you might get to the top 2 or 3, and you know you're pro-town, then if you can stay there that greatly increases the town's chances of winning, right? Or am I missing something?

Sure, it might, but if you let that blind yourself you fall into a trap that everyone seems to ignore; even if you know you are town and everyone else believes you are town it DOESN'T mean that who you think is scum is more likely to be scum. Like with Shy Guy offering to 'help me' get to final two : Why would I be at all interested in getting to final two with him if I was not sure that he was scum?

I understand the hesitation everyone has with my own personal ideals, that martyrs who are tryign to force the town to vote a certain way should show good faith by offering to be the first off, IF the people they want to be saved for final two are agreed to by the rest of the town. But that's how I feel, and I feel that it would wind up being WORSE for scum than it would be for town. You have to remember that everyone voted out before the final two does not matter in the long run; scum are going to be trying to get one of their own into final two and town is basically trying to avoid that. So makign it harder for scum to get to final two is, in my opinion, in town's best interests.

(reading on...)

[Skruffs]

Ludicrous statement. There has never been a time in this game where you could possibly suggest that a scum team has no chance of winning. Which gambit of Ectoscum do you suppose failed so catastrophically as to cause me to "give up"? Are you kidding me? Go read some Ectomancer games. I'm not stupid. An easygoing, rational, game mechanic posting (it's an active lurker move) Ectoscum could slide into a 3rd - 5th position

easily

in this game. From that position I can win this game as scum.

I remember you from Clue 2, where you were the last SK and was trying to do anything in your power to get a townie lynched so you and the last SK could fudge a win, although all options were lined against you. Inasmuch, I wouldn't expect you to 'give up', and I also know that you have no problem with pulling ludicrous gambits.

Also, you are wrong; 3rd-5th place is a loss for mafia unless you got your buddy (who you seem to be overly implying is Yosarian) into 1st or 2nd.

No doubt in my mind.

Unless

my ability to manipulate the ballot is compromised by town blocs (if they are lucky enough to build a solid one), or random moves that screw up my balloting by removing this player in round 3 insteablahblahblah

The main contention against you is your heavy-handed attempts to force town to agree with you in regards to who the town players are, without discussion, nad with threats to people who go against your schematics. Scum early-forcing a 'town scum' condition wind up getting around the 'town block' thing you are referring to; the town block is only a detriment if it is entirely made of scum.

The only claim that you might make to support the idea that I am scum, is if you said I am purposely choosing 2 townies (Sarcastro and Yosarian2) and forcing them into the middle of the pack by my play.

That claim has been made.

It doesn't take them out of play, but it should remove 2 townies from the possible players that will end up in the bottom 3.
That way, instead of town having a 9 in 12 shot of getting into one of those positions, they now have a 7 in 10 shot of getting into one. (Drop from 75% to 70%)

And if you were to agree to be lynched, it would drop to a 6/9.

Yosarian was randomly chosen, not be me, but by an alphabetical list, and the fact the the first couple players posted it that way.

so you say.

Sarcastro was chosen for his gameplay, and a way to hedge my bet on Yosarian2. Pick a townie to keep in, and pick a scumbag to keep out.

But it can also be used as vice versa. Sarc had little to no chance of getting to final two before you started faux fighting with him. Choosing someone that some people already have expressed concerns about and declaring him as scum seems to be you trying to appeal to the majority. Your later statement that you aren't interested in arguing over why he is scum just kinda pushes that motif further. Sstill, you are not getting to final 2, and your wifom regarding yosarian and sarc seems to be pretty successful.

(more later)

[Skruffs]

I have caught up but now have to leave work... I'm not sure, I need to really look at shy guy, opie and yosarian. I also need to look at the people Ectomancer has kind of avoided so far this game. I intend to change myt ballot tonight but i will post a pseudoballot first, and if five or so people agree I will change it.

Right now there's too much to process to just outright respond to the last two pages, but i don't like nocmen's post, and I *don't* *know* *why*...

[Skruffs]

I find Opie to seem to be pro-town, as I have said before. I think so mostly because of one of the mistakes he made on an earlier page; it was near the top. I don't remember what exactly the mistake was, but it struck me as a genuine one about hte setup of the game, and I've been remembering that.

I'm not quite as sure abuot Shy Guy, and I'm wary about his attempts to get me to put him at bottom two and his cuonter offer; as I think we are all aware, it doesn't matter if ONE townie makes it to final two. TWO townies have to. I don't think that him putting me at the bottom will significantly affect my own chances to get further down, so now I am wondering, why does he want me to put him further down. Would it affect the game?


If I were to optimize (for example) my ballot to keep everyone who has me lower down, lower down, and putting everyone who has me higher up, higher up, this is how it would look like:

max 2nd
ecto 3rd
yos 3rd
opie 5th
oman 7th
noc 9th
andersonw 9th
thesp 9th
sarc 11th
van 11th
shyguy 9th*

I would put them in the order that I find most to least scummy, in the cases of ties to get those results

Shy guy wants me to put him at the final two, which is why he is out of place in this situation, I am goign to assume if I did he would keep his word on that.

I am in the middle of processing, Thesp, Grr, I am taking your ballot change but I am not going to do anymore that come after this post (I put the modified ballots after each round int he preview menu while I do it)

Expecct the run down and analysis in half an hour; Stoofer should be asleep right now (he's in europe) so I am counting on having another few hours (at least) of free time before he wakes up....

[Skruffs]

Rd1:
Ecto* 1111
Max* 111
Van* 11
Shy* 11
Noc* 1

*Shy guy not eliminated in first round(different)
Nocmen eliminated

Ecto 1111
Max 1111
Van 11
Shy 11
Van, Shy eliminated

Ecto 11111
Max 1111111
Max lynched Day 1

Day 2
Ecto 11111
Van 111
Oman* 1
Noc 1
Shy 1
Noc, Shy, Oman Eliminated
Ecto 11111111
Van 111
Ecto Lynched Day 2

Day 3
Yos* 111
Oman 11
Nocman* 11
Van 11
Shy 1
Shy GUy eliminated(Thesp)
Yos 111
Nocman 111
Oman 11
Van 11
Oman, Van elimmed (and,*noc,*yos,shy)
Yos 1111
Nocman 111111
Nocman lynched Day 3 (Anderson, Shy Guy deciding votes)
(I didn't do this for the first two rounds but am gonig to do it from now on, it's intriguing to see who's votes 'moves' the most). Nocman is lynched on his first 'appearance' in the votecount, also interesting.

Also interesting to note, the first three lynchs, my 'improved' voting list has all three people as in the top of my ballot (for the first two) and fourth from the top (Nocmen) so it could be said that I am going with teh flow by doing this. ... Oh well.
Day 4
Yos 111
Shy 11
Van 11
Oman 1 (ander)
Sarc* 1 (opie)

Oman, Sarc elimmed
Van 1111 (went from least popular to most)
Yos 111
Shy 11 <- elimmed (Thesp, Oman)
--
Van 11111(Oman)
Yos 1111
Oman breaks the tie and 'hammers' Van, who is second from the bottom on my 'improved' list.
-------
Day 5
Oman 11
Shy Guy 11
Yos 11
Sarc 1(opie)
Thesp* 1(Yos)
opie's still pushing a 'lost cause' on Sarc at this point, and is roudned up again.
Sarc, Thesp dropped
Oman 1111
Yos 11
Shy Guy 11
In the last previous round where either Shy and Yos had a different number of votes, Yos had 4, shy guy had 0, so Shy is dropped (Thesp and Oman's)
Oman 1111
Yos 1111 Brought up to a tie, interesting, since Oman had mre votes in a previous round, Yosarian is dropped, and Oman is lynched. (Right?) (3rd on my list at that point)
--------
Day 6
Yos 11
Thesp 11
Opie* 1 (and)
Sarc 1 (opie)
Shy Guy 1 (Thesp)
Opie, Sarc, Shy are dropped
Yos 111
Thesp 1111

Thesp is lynched, it is interesting because if Thesp had ben voting Sarc (his next higher up 'viable' candidate), it would have gone like this:

Yos 11
Thesp 11
Sarc 11
Opie* 1 (and)
Opie is dropped, ANderson votes Sarcastro
Sarc 111
Yos 11
Thesp 11
Yos has more votes in a previous round (the end of the last day) and is kept while Thesp is dropped
Sarc 11111
Yos 11
Sarc is lynched instead of Thesp, all because Thesp has Shy Guy above Sarc. Odd, huh
Anyways, originally Thesp was lynched, let's go with that
---------
Day 7
Sarc 11
Yos 11
Opie 1 (And)
Skruffs* 1 (Yos)
Side note, Anderson is the last person to show up on a vote count, though he is not anywhere close to the bottom of anyone's vote count lists.
Me, Opie dropped
Sarc 1111
Yos 11
Sarc lynched.
-----------
Day 8
Opie 1(ander)
Skruffs 11
Yos 1(me)
Ander* 1(Shy)
Yos with most points is kept, other two dropped
Skruffs 1111
Yos 1
Me lynched, day 8, which is the exact same as it is now.
----------
Day 9
Opie 1
Ander 111
Anderson is lynched, after providing more swing votes than anyone else.
-----------
Yos is lynched 2-1 Opie, andOpie and Shy guy, again, make it to final two.

I will analyze in the next post, but I will note that Anderson seems to serve no purpose in this game except to vote later; I'm going to see who 'benefits' the most from each lynching (IE who's got the lynchee highest/lowest on their charts)

[Skruffs]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen

Opie

Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2

Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Opie

Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max

Shy Guy

Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy

Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw

Opie

Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs

Shy Guy

Opie

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max

Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Opie

Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

Opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2

Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien

Opie

Shy Guy

Skruffs

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2

Opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer

Shy Guy

VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2

Opie

[col]

Thesp

Shy Guy

Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Ectomancer
Sarcastro

Opie

Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2

Shy Guy

Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman

Opie

andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Opie

Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer

Shy Guy

AIght, here is the order they'd be lynched by Shy GUys' post vs the 'new' post with the altered Thesp/Skruffs lists:
[col]

Old Order:

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Max
VanDamian
Oman
Thesp
Sarcastro
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
FINAL TWO:
Opie
Shy Guy

[col]

New Order:

Max
Ectomancer
Nocmen
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Sarcastro
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
FINAL TWO:

Opie

Shy Guy

Now with some personal analysis:

Shy Guy, it doesn't matter if I put you at final two with me: Anderson will still hammer me day 8, and the other players who are already voting me (Yosarian, Opie) will msot likely NOT agree to put me at the bottom of the list if it means that they are 'bumped off' earlier; Yosarian especially is already defending the idea that there is no reason to get yourself lynched earlier than you need to be.

I'll do a nother run down and see *where* exactly it would benefit me to move my votes, and will consider changing my ballot, but if everyone does that, we will degenerate into a free for all which will be too consuming to overcome. Don't think there's much point in it.

I will point out that Anderson winds up 'changing his votes' more often than ANYONE else in the game; I doubt he's 'cleaver eough' (no offense intended) to intentionally set up his list to put 'dummy accounts' up top (like opie) with intentions of helping to vote out 'townie' players towards the end, but there's something about how he's in the middle of everyone's list but still makes it to final four that bugs me.

[Skruffs]

Right:
So I can't get to final two, I looked at the options, there are none. That's because of the 7 people who have me in one of their final 3 slots, five of them are eliminated by roudn 8.

Not only that, but Shy Guy, who wants me to help him get to final two, has almost every single one of those players at the TOP of his list: Max (2nd most town) VanDamien(Most town), Oman (5th most), Thesp (3rd), etc. The only person he doesn't have up top is Sarcastro; and with Sarc's last post towards Shy Guy I have a feeling he'll probably be getting up high on the list anyways.

So yeah, Shy Guy, I knwe there was something fishy about that. You and Yosarian have 6 people each putting you as top 2; Opie has only 3, along with me. Anderson, who comes in 4th, has 1. You don't need my support; and if you DO want it, you have to look at what is happeneing BEFORE final two; the people who think I'm most town are systematically eliminated. This is really pullign on my paranoia strings.

[Skruffs]

Well, if I were to 'try and get to final two', I would have to try and target opie, which I am unwilling to do, because my strongest protown feel is on him. If I were to try and take out yos or shy guy, I'd need help from anderson and sarc, which I'm not comfortable doing, because if opie and shy guy are both town, it might open final 3 up to further manipulation. I will say that there is an amount of secondary tiering that has to be done; putting who you think is most town at the bottom of your list is useless if you put everyone else who thinks he's town at the top of your list.

Also, spoiler votes: in more than one situation, someone nominates a player early,and their 2nd choice nominee is also nominated, but because both only had one vote, both are elimmed and the person winds up voting a choice that is much further down their list, sometimes with only themselves as the other option.


I think everyone should look to reordering their lists to a list that would help who they want to get to final two, instead of just scummy to least scummy.
www.condorcet.org may have some software to help run sample elections,though I haven't examined too closely

[Skruffs]

Skruffs, perhaps I was incorrect -- I was fairly sure that if I put you to the bottom, day 8 you would not be lynched, and then move on to the final 2.

As it stands on Day 8 (at least last night when I did a review), I was at 2 in the first round with four players left, and I would have to vote Anderson with someone else (you) to at least tie it, but since I had a vote on me in Round 7 I would lose the tie breaker.


My argument against you rankign everyone who has my down low was more or less a result of exhaustion and some paranoia; I do'nt think you intentionally studied the game, put the people who were suspicious of me up at the top of your list and then started a fake-campaign to get me to bottom two; that's more of a worse case scenario. I will be honest and say thatmy thinker is about conked out right now; I am not really analyzing motives and intents behind words like I normally do, and since we are in 'the midnight hour' or whatever it's called this is a bad spot to be. Regardless, let me do another quick run through and see what could happen.

*groans* I wanted to go to bed early tonight, too...

[Skruffs]

The frustrating part of this game is that we don't get to do any tests, we're literally stripped of town's biggest asset, information through lynches. It has to almost entirely be a judgement call.

[Skruffs]

I am going to change my post tonight, after Game Night is finished (My code list that is)
I will explain why at some point during the day; I have a lot to say, Have a nice day all.

[Skruffs]

I WON?!!!!!???


OH MY GOD....

I didn't think there was ANY chance to win.... v.v
You townies scared the bejeezus out of me, I mean I literally urinated myself at different points reading posts from Shy Guy, Yosarian, and Ecto...

[Skruffs]

The first simulation was not deliberately wrong, i really didn't understand how ties would behandled;
the second run used alist i never actually submited so the results were not reliable, and later ones i never published because it would have been obvious i was adjusting them just to benefit myself and wasn't based on scum hunting..

also sarc scared me, he was putting me low down but his votes on yosarian prevented us from being able to bulk up on other more dangerous townies...
oh well.. i wish i hadn't been as hectic as i was, the sporadic posting wasn't exactly fair to either side.

[Skruffs]

Also

FOS: Stoofer

for ruining my social life and participation in other games

[Skruffs]

I would say that 2 mafia, and a survivor/traitor would be interesting.

[Skruffs]

WE could talk to each other?

[Skruffs]

Hmm.
Wel that might have been useful, I was trying to communicate in thread to sarc the entire game.

[Skruffs]

I somehow missed that, or thought Day 0 was the confirmation stage, or something.
Oh well, if we had been analyzing players to see who was conceivably talking, it would have led to Ecto even more I think.

[Skruffs]

I replaced in. >.> So I missed that. <.<
But it worked anyways.