Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm on page 13.

Three completely irrelevant things I've noticed:
Mathcam said he wanted to minimize X-Y, when he clearly wanted to minimize X+Y.
Gorgon is scum. (Also: dead now.)
TSQ wrote "extend" when he meant "extent".

I'm not liking JDodge(now DrippingGoofball) so far.

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Also, Adele uses confusing abbreviations.

FTL means faster than light to me, foremost, not for the loss.

And I don't know what ETIJ means. ET in Jeans? Eat that in jest?

I'm reading TSQ as pro-town. Which is pretty rare, so worth mentioning, but useless all the same.

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Okay, I read the thread. Yay for me!

I tend to think cicero is town. When he replaced, it would've been oh so easy for scum to just take the case on Oman and run with it. Instead he still voted for Oman, thereby linking him to the wagon, but rejected the case on Oman. This does not make sense for scum.

I'm suspicious of ckd. Especially his latest posts seem off. I'm certainly not getting any town vibes. But, I must add that his choice of target last night does not strike me as particularly egregious considering mathcam was not a likely watcher target.

I still don't like JDodge/DrippingGoofball, but I can't say DG has given me any solid tells.

I'm reading Yvonne more as new than truly scummy.

The Fonz, Adele and shaft.ed I have no strong opinion on.

If you think that Yvonne and CKD are both scum you should always lynch Yvonne. Why? Because if you are wrong having CKD alive is the only scenario by which the town has any chance to live another day.

Except she could be wrong about one and right about the other. If she's significantly more suspicious of CKD, she should go after him.

I think we should no-lynch now, as 7 players is better than 8 in Ly-Lo. Now one might argue that this would be giving away an opportunity to stop a kill and get us an extra kill, but this issue is moot if ckd is scum, a viewpoint I ascribe to and frankly, it's not really that important if he weren't. I'd much rather get the information from one more night than take the plunge now, especially if one considers that noone is cleared, that there is no obvious kill target. Thus, the mafia's kill will assuredly tell us something.

I got disrupted by foodstuffs near the end of this post and I see two new long posts in my preview window. I'll be reading those now.

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3) If Yvonne is scum Adele is a likely partner. I don't think scum Yvonne would have passed her powers out to the town. Yet she suggested this strategy early D1. The only way I see this as likely is that Yvonne knew her powers would be contained within the mafia.

An Yvonne-Adele pairing seems unlikely based on play though. Why are you looking at role actions in a vacuum? You are not a physicist.

I mean, otherwise, I think it's a good observation, and makes me think Yvonne is not scum. (If Yvonnescum -> Adelescum, then also: Yvonnescum -> Yvonnescum & Adelescum and Not(Yvonnescum&Adelescum) -> Not(Yvonnescum).)

How can you fail to take 42 pages of info into account when you're making your analysis?

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The Fonz, if the mafia doesn't kill, that would merely keep the situation as is. Not exactly a horrible worst case scenario, aye? Most seriously though, mafia dudes tend to kill people. The "no lynch, mafia kill someone" tends to go as planned.

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No, no, the scum killing is good. That's why I'm suggesting a no-lynch. So our worst case scenario is that the scum don't kill.

Now I understand that it feels like someone has to make a sub-optimal move and well, this is basically true, but it works on account of scum's tendency to kill people. On a certain level it shouldn't work, but it does, yeah. Ignore the man behind the curtain.

CES it's not in a vacuum. I just want to get these role interaction points out there. As you said Yvonne & Adele is not incredibly likely. Thus I feel that since bringing up that point I'm finding Yvonne less likely scum.

I don't find it very convincing when the one example of real analysis you can give is one I just spelled out for you.

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To add to The Fonz' latest point, the rules in this game specify that The Fonz would not be informed if he had been blocked, so there really was no info for The Fonz to convey.

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Yeah, but jailkeeperscum is unlikely to make the kill. It would only go down to 2/8 if the nightkiller had been randomly chosen among the scum.

Vote: No Lynch

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I think that was a perfectly cogent post (even if self-defeating).

Your efforts at obfuscation are noted.

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the chance that both Yvonne and I are scum (10.7%), very close to the odds I proposed that we both go early (one-in-nine = 11.1%), while if both of us are town (36%) then us both going towards the end and optimising the odds of catching the scum in a lie is the Beth course and 4/9 (44%) seems pretty close to optimal to me.

But we don't have a scoring rule that rewards mimicking the actual percentages. The optimal course of action is, in fact, far simpler. It's letting the watcher(s) go last consistently. You just get more variance that way. Apparently this town wants to reduce variance (I see little reason to), but that really means making a compromise which depends on risk-averse one is. Mimicking the percentage still doesn't come into play.

(For example, if you're 90% sure of a certain answer, then you should answer it 100% of the time. Also, a logarithmic scoring rule does reward mimicking the percentage.)

Unvote, vote: ckd

, 'cause I'm realizing I'd be voting for ckd come 'morrow if we no-lynch anyhow. I still think no-lynch is generally speaking a good idea here.

shaft.ed, I am not hanging. As you might have noticed, I don't even have a single vote on me.

Cicero, I see no inconsistency in Yvonne basing her play on abstract notions(ie. watcher claims last). It's a very natural opinion to hold.

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I'd say Yvonne was a clearly easier lynch, Fonzdude. Going after harder lynches is a town tell in LyLo. Note that this doesn't rely on ckd being scum or for that matter Yvonne being town.

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CES: Can you take me through why No Lynch is better with 7 than 8 in LyLo again please.

Um, no lynching would be a really bad idea with 7 players in LyLo.

I'll give a serious reply when I get back from university.

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DGb is right. Your thinking here is too convoluted, shaft.ed.

My take: ZA was under lotsa suspicion and the scum took advantage of that. It does make it somewhat more likely that Fonz and/or Yvonne are scum(as it makes it a less risky enterprise for the scum), but not by much.

Now, back to no-lynch. I should have posted yesterday, but I am incredibly lazy on occasion and this was one of those occasions.

I think we can all agree the next lynch is pretty dang important. Yet there certainly doesn't exist a town consensus as to who's scum. I'd say it's fair to call this town conflicted. This is not a good moment for the town to be conflicted. I think this is strongly related to the lack of dead scum and obviously town people. That's why I strongly feel that the odds of mislynching today are significantly higher today than they'll be on any day to come. And I think we can up the chance of lynching correctly by about 10% if we no-lynch. And I hope the town'll be able to pull it together once we've caught one scum.

I consider the next day the major bottleneck in the road to victory. And I would prefer widening that bottleneck.

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That didnt actually answer my question. It's because you think it's obvious. You, I think, are pointing out that with one less townie the percentage of the town that is scum goes from 37.5% to 42.8% of town.

You think wrong. I do not expect scum to kill someone we would otherwise lynch, so that's not a particularly important effect. I think we can do 10% better simply by virtue of the extra information. As is, I feel lots of leads and clues, but no coherent case. I think there's a real chance an extra night might get us over the "hump" and give us a solid lynch.

But this fails to take into account the fact that with one less townie it becomes that much easier for scum to lead the lynch. Townies essentially need to be unanimously correct to lynch scum. Scum just need to figure out the one townie that will be easy to trick into joining their chosen mislynch wagon.

Scum can't really afford to band together though, so I would consider this an insignificant effect too.

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Can you tell one from the other?

Yes.

Also: this is an useless argument.

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WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense.

Firstly, if you can't think of a reason, then you're not thinking hard enough. My scumdar doesn't work on DGb, but I wouldn't exclude lynching here today either.

Secondly, you're pretty much strawmanning here. She merely said she'd rather take a DGb lynch over a no lynch. She certainly hasn't been fighting to get DGb lynched.

I'm actually fairly sure Adele is town at this point.

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Intuition.

Her stance on DGb resonates rather strongly with me, in particular. Her latest posts show a distinctly pro-town mindset as far as I'm concerned.

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well, they are someone else's "stances"..she has just agreed with them out of no where, but you feel that she is town for that...so your thoughts on the original person who thought DGB might be scum (yvonne)..what about cicero? If you like Adele's "stances" you must like thier stances as well, yes?

The only thing in common between these stances is that they are not favourable to DGb. Liking one such stance, doesn't in any way imply I must like all such stances.

do you feel DGB is scummy? or just slightly less scummy than myself?

You are my top suspect. DGb is my number two currently by a more than significant margin.

other than saying you dont like DGB/jdodge, but they werent giving you any solid tells, have you demostrated that you felt DGB is scummy any where? Seems to me that I can find a post or two where you agreed with DGB.

I am perfectly capable of agreeing with someone without me thinking they're town. I have nothing concrete on DGb, so I haven't had much reason to express my suspicion. At the same time, she hasn't given me any reason to trust her, whereas most have. Mostly, it's not that I suspect her more now than just after reading the thread, it's that I suspect nearly everyone less now.

can you please provide me some posts that Adele has posted that you think are town tells that had contributed to your "intuition".

I "can". 1155(the second paragraph), 1267, 1272, 1274(her latest posts)

Also, does it bother you that Adele has not displayed any suspicion of DGB before coming out and saying she would support a DGB lynch?

Neither have I. I have no problem understanding it. The very thing that mystifies you strikes a chord with me.

At least when Cicero walked out on the ledge to support Yvonne as being town he displayed some sort of "case" for it...you..just intuition.

I have a pretty good gut though.

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Let me get this straight, CKD. Adele and CES would vote for be because I'm "unreadable???"

What I am missing here?

Reading comprehension.

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That's a period, ckd. Not a comma.

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I'm not strawmanning anything here.

LIES! Seriously though, you are, to an extent. I mean, it's generally a bad idea to advocate lynching someone in LyLo if you don't have a good read on them, as per your "This makes no sense." comment. But she isn't advocating that lynch. She merely stated she would prefer it over no lynch. That's worlds apart.

And I didn't make my case clearly. My point wasn't that one shouldn't lycnh someone because they cannot read them. My point was that this was the ONLY reason that Adele provided though stating she could provide reasons if needed. This is really a weird statement to me.

Now this I have no problem with. Even though I wouldn't call it weird. It's just a matter of comparison.

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Neither of us has given unreadability as a reason, DGb.

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DGb I've just commented on.

The Fonz looks somewhat town, but I can't read him particularly well.

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No.

If Yvonne or Adele had watched me, they would've gotten no result. That is all.

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wait what? lets says DGB targetted CES and CES shot mathcam last night...and Yvonne watched mathcam, she couldnt have seen CES shoot mathcam?

No. CES would be immune to powers, but could still be seen.

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No, shaft.ed. It's more likely she performed the kill if she's scum. Also, I'm unlikely to be protected.

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I'd go for a witty remark here, but I have a headache. But you can still pretend I made one.

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Adele's opinion in this game is consistent with previous play.

And I agree with the gist of what she's saying. Randomness is pretty much always sub-par. I think a chainclaim is even worse though, at least here. Scum is sufficiently informed that they are much capable of using it to their favour and they make up a rather sizable part of the town at this point.

My personal suggestion, which, I admit, involves significantly more variance than a random chain, is to appoint a listmaker come morrow. (The idea is that the listmaker makes a list, capiche?) Obviously this plan relies quite a bit on our ability to find a town dude, but, frankly, if we are incapable of that, we don't really stand much of a chance of winning.

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you vouching for Adele means exactly crap to me.

Adele says she has acted like this in the past. I am saying that this is true. This is something concrete. Do you think we're lying scumbags?

please explain why dice are sub-par.

Dice aren't pro-town, all they have going for them is that scum can't influence them. I'd rather aim for a claiming order that actually benefits the town. I believe my suggestion does that.

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And I am perfectly comfortable with the idea that you and Adele could be lying scumbags. Certainly my sense of strategy and yours dont line up.

I'm talking about a specific concrete instance, which is simply a matter of record. If you doubt us, you can just ask Adele to provide specific examples. That is my point.

Dice are pro-town because scum can't influence them.

That just makes them neutral. A random claiming order won't favour the town more often.

Using a >50% reliable listmaker is better.

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how will a listmaker favor the town?
By making scummier people claim before less scummy people.

And so I assume you ARE in favor of an idea that the mafia CAN influence versus one they can not?

Ceteris paribus, no, of course not. But in practice it comes down to finding a compromise between limiting scum influence and helping the town. I feel my plan does that best.

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CES: I'm asking you for the examples about Adele. Show me how it's consistent. Back up your assertion.

I don't remember specific examples of Adele supporting chainclaims, but I have seen her do it, certainly. I'll defer this one to Adele, as she's probably aware of at least one game in which she did.

Not to mention scum would have 3 of the 4 votes needed to annoint the listmaker.

Well, if they want to band together at that point in the game, that's fine by me.

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Well, fine, but I'll claim last out of protest!

*shakes fist defiantly*

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More to the point, there remains the DGB issue. If DGB is town, then scum can take a shot at her, with no possibility of detection. The worst case scenario for them there is DGB gets jailed, which leaves us back at the status quo with the marginal benefit that I or shaft.ed MAY choose to pass our powers to Adele. The Beth case scenario is a town player down, and no additional info.

So really, in order for no-lynching to have any conceivable benefit, DGB has to be scum. And if we're voting anything based on the notion that DGB is scum, it should be a DGB lynch.

Except, if we think DGb is scum,

losing DGb is a good thing.

Here's a possibility. How about everyone make a list NOW? I'm not committed to this plan, but it has benefits, I'd like to hear what people.

God, no. Dice is a better idea than that. We don't want the scum prepared for the claimin'.

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Unvote, vote: no lynch

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Claim: I did nothing last night.

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Ckd is obv scum.

Discuss.

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DrippingGoofball, what are you on about?

Either ckd killed Yvonne or Adele is lying to try and get ckd lynched.

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Yups.

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There's not really anyone he could've targetted last night without looking anti-town though. And if you have to make a sacrifice, ckd is the obvious choice. I don't really see this as particularly mysterious.

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Not. Yvonne would've been immune to powers.

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OK I haven't had a chance to keep up with the thread but one thing has been sticking in my head for the whole afternoon, that is CKD targeting CES. If CKD were to lie about who he targeting DGB would clearly be the most obvious choice. This is because DGB cannot be targeting for watching. THus if CKD lies about jailing CES he is effectively doubling his odds of being caught in a lie (both on the jailing end and the NK end). With only 5 people for the watchers to chose from and Adele being a pretty decent candidate for watching two people, this is an incredibly stupid and risky move if the CES targeting is fabricated.

I don't exactly inspire watchers to watch me, shaft.ed.

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Shaft.ed, I doubt he thought it through.

Especially if he's scum with DGb, I can definitely see him just opting to have "targetted" me without considering alternatives.

cicero, I've already made up my mind as regards today.

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Well if you are town and being quiet you are being a detriment because your reticence makes me lean more heavily in the opposite direction. Please save me from myself (and town from me) and join the conversation.

Why wouldn't I be reticent? This discussion is not interesting to me and voting now would just be an unnecessary risk.

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Cicero, could you explain to me exactly why you find my reticence scummy?

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Stop. Unvote.

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So I'm too assume then that you two
a) really are townies, and
b) really do believe CKD is the play, then?

Well, that certainly applies to me, if you must know.

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Yes.

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I think it was the other way, actually, Adele.

His argument also ignores that people consider DGB scummy.

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Yes.

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Vote: curiouskarmadog

Cicero, with me!

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What part of "we are lynching the scum" don't you understand, Fonz?

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EBWOP: Cicero, put that vote back.

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That's actually my scum list: ckd, dgb and Fonz.

Adele is town. My gut tells me this.

Unvote

, because cicero lacks cojones.

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Together or separately? Two Neptunes or one?

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Occam's Razor says: cicero is under the influence.

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High on Earl Grey mayhap?

!(ckdscum -> Fonzscum)

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Cicero, you are making a mistake in logic called denying the antecedent(or affirming the consequent.)

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IF CKD is scum Fonz is also scum. Not the inverse. I havent turned my mind to the inverse because we arent (currently) lynching Fonz.

But the inverse is actually true! Ckdscum doesn't mean Fonzscum at all.

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Cicero, no, I am not denying the obvious here!

If ckd is town, then fonzscum would've hammered, ergo fonz is town.

So we have Ckdtown -> Fonztown and by modus tollens Fonzscum -> Ckdscum. That's all we have. Ckd being scum doesn't tell us anything (concrete, that is).

Just imagine how it would've gone down given (Fonztown & ckdscum). That combination has simply not been ruled out.

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Like that Fonz surely isn't scum with me (unless... does CKD, Fonz and me make sense? Big gambit, and not true, incidentally, but is it hypothetically possible?)

Actually no, in such a situation Fonz has to bus one of the two of you. So he easily could have hammered at that time if he felt like it.

But probably wouldn't have. The basic scenario is still very implausible and hardly worth considering at this time though.

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Frankly, I'm not really seeing much useful discussion here: just useless setup-theoretic blathering with little to no relevance to the actual situation at hand.

It's about time we decided, methinks. And I'm plenty confident.

Time to lynch us some scum.

Vote: curiouskarmadog

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Yeah I'm a little annoyed that CES dropped his vote and then just disappeared like that.

I didn't. But dgb beat me to the punch.

was DGB really the Beth choice last night? I guess so....ugh, I am not taking full blame though..Scum played a great game, and CES didnt even read the thread.

I don't think anyone's blaming you here. We all made some subpar moves. (And I most certainly did read the thread.)

I was fooled by Adele mostly. I had The Fonz and DGb pegged. Shame really.

Good game, scum.