Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

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hallo all. Im in and reading up.

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Been sick. Will be my usual "doesnt shut up" self before too long. Im always slow to start when I replace in because I do two or three reads first. And this weekend I simply couldnt focus on learning a new game. Sorry.

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Thanks for remembering me Shafted. I've spent today reading up and would be done already except that the site keeps going offline with those PHPbb errors.

As of page 11 - which is as far as Ive gotten because of the technical issues - I am strongly in favor of lynching Oman.

I want to lynch Oman - and not because I think he's scum. He's probably town. - like others it is because his bus driver power would be simply too useful to Sylar. I dont care if people think its "scummy" to think this because we should "only lynch scum". In this game, so far, I see Oman as a huge liability. Obviously there are other options like letting him be jailkept or doc protecting him or even the one where he makes the doc protect him ( but remember doc protection doesnt protect against Sylar.)

I want that power out of the game immediately. Otherwise let's all just play as vanilla townies.

I'll be done my re-read very soon and back with more content. I may even come back with "oops, I changed my mind. I'm a dumbass" but it will be very shortly and long before deadline. Like I said, if mafiascum wouldnt keep going down Id be done.

Again, I'm sorry about the delay. I'm not a fan of lurkiness as many can attest.

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I thought he was probably town on page 11. Why? Because he told me. All the games I'm in where people say they are town out loud like that, they end up being town. However, most of his scummy behavior happened after that point. I've finished my re-read and I could go either way now. On scumtells alone, he's scum. But remember I have an anti Day one scumtell bias that informs my writing. He feels scummy to me now but day one feelings of scumminess are generally worth jack and shit. On a balance of odds alone with behavior removed he is "probably" town. ZOneace also feels scummy in his answers. But would I be surprised if he turned up town? Not for a second. Several other players fill the same slot for me. Towniness !=townie. Scumminess !=scum. Espectially on day one.

But I don't really care if people don't like my post. Everyone else can run around justifying reasons to vote Oman for being scummy - which he is after a full reread - but the way I see it is this. It's pure tactice. Sylar has the ability to kill a player, cut off their head and then own their power.

If Oman is already Sylar we're already in trouble. If Sylar kills Oman he'll take the Bus Driver power and then we wont be able to trust in doc protection from you, or any watcher or tracker results. Lord knows what other mischief I haven't thought of yet. If Oman is mafia we already have that as a problem, of course, but the odds are that each of us, looked at in isolation, is town. In short Shaft.ed is the man.

I know the whole adage about "I lynch scummy people. Period." But I'm here to win the game. For town. And in my estimation that will be best served by the ability of each player to trust that the information the mod has given them with respect to their power is true. As long as the Bus Driver power is floating around that will be impossible.

As I said, I also like the idea of powers being given to Peter Petrelli. It would allow for doubling up on watcher or tracker results and maybe a backup doc. But we cant just make it the plan, of course, because there are two kills going to happen tonight and anything we find especially useful may end up shot or have their head opened like a can opener.

As for other issues and people:

I am terribly troubled by zoneace I have to say. If I was going to Lynch someone who is not Oman it would be Zoneace. With very little explanation he is pushing a No Lynch solution - which is anathema to me because

Oman must die

and he refuses to consider giving his power to Peter/Adele. He provides no explanation for this and refuses to respond to arguments. He only pops in long enough to blame Shea for picking on him. How can anyone reason with you, Zoneace? How can we explore ideas if you won't discuss them and maybe change your mind?

Shafted - In this game Shafted is the man. I know people accused him of craplogic at one point but I'll need to go back and find it again to see if it's scum crap logic.

TSQ - I felt like Shea was scum for the first half of the game because he was being active but not doing any real inquisitive scumhunting in my opinion. He was pressing others generally - and mostly Zoneace. I've changed my mind now though. He really got some great posts in towards the latter half.

Adele - People should have gone with her LAL idea I think. I always think gambitting townies think they are so much more clever than anyone else and so far their results have never impressed me. I'll answer Adele this way: I take your point. In this game I will think very carefully before trying to use any lies to out scum. I will understand that while there are some gambits that can be used to trap people, we are infinitely more likeley to be better served by full honesty.

Yvonne - has that delicious lurkiness that smells like noobscum afraid of making a mistake. Peek-a-boo, I see you!

CKD - has strategy blinders on. Jumping up and down saying "I only lynch scummy, harumph!" is dumb. We should consider and argue through all the best plays for town. This looks like someone who wants to avoid having that happen. One of my big scumtells for this day one is looking for who is making what arguments to keep who alive no matter what.

Shaft.Ed - Again, is the man. He has the best take on this game for town in my opinion. You should all listen to him more. Even if he turns out to be scum, his ideas seem to me to be very helpful to town. Which isnt exactly unheard of.

Gorgon - I dont trust. Will need to look at very closely as the game goes along.

Fonz/DAS - There's nothing to see here yet. Fonz is good posting but I cant imagine Fonz being bad posting. DAS was DAS. I was in Mafia 69 with him and he ended up scum. His posts were like this, but I think his posts are always like this. I wont be able to draw connections until people start dying. I disagree that there is no role in the game so powerful that we should just get rid of it. But I'm more suspicious of how reliable "scumtells" are than Fonz is so I put more importance on things like metas and investigatory powers.

Jdodge - I have to learn to read jdodge. He feels scummy in this game but he felt scummy in my last game too. I was compelled by the easy pickins argument from a few pages back when he popped in to pile on to ... zoneace was it? or Oman. Anyway the easy wagon.

Mathcam - feels townie. Which, again, doesnt mean IS townie.


Once again though

This is Day one

. We will probably lynch a townie. Scummy does not equal scum. With all the powers out, lynching the watcher or the tracker is not smart. Lynching the bus driver IS smart. I like to play smart not pure.

Vote Oman

. The fact that he's acted scummy is a nice bonus but it isnt my main reason for voting for him. I'd be happy to lie to you and tell you I find him scummy and that's my main reason but I already promised Adele I'd try not to lie.

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Zoneace, I'm not lying. Maybe I missed your good reasons in the middle of your streams of paranoid invective directed toward TSQ.

Please answer the following questions directly for a dumb overworked, off and on headcolded, computer screwing up replacement. Use quotes if you like.

1) Why is No Lynch a better option than removing Oman the bus driver who may also coincidentally be scum.

2) Why are you not willing to give your power to Adele? Is it because you want to keep yourself valuable enough to stay alive? Because that's all I see. Self preservation. I did not see you respond to the patient explanation that Adele put to you that points out that giving her your power is useful to town EVEN if she is scum.

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Fonz - you are not reading my post correctly. I'm not concerned about Oman BEING Sylar. There is a 1/12 chance of that. I'm concerned about Oman being KILLED by Sylar and therefore becoming the bus driver. How can you keep missing that point? You seem to have it in your head that I think Oman is already Sylar. Get that out of your head and re-read.

As for whether you think that's a good enough reason to lynch - agree to disagree. You vote for your reasons. I'll vote for mine. People often lynch jesters day one: Let 'em Fulfill their win condition and get 'em outta the way. On Day 1 I dont trust my ability to find scum. I have yet to be in a game where scum has been successfully lynched on day one. Maybe some of you have had a different experience. In the context of MY experience I see one very very smart move in this game. It is called lynching Oman. Let me break it down:

First - on probability alone there is a 25% to 33% chance that he is scum. THEN his behavior adds to this slightly. Lets say, given the near uselessness of scumtells on day one that he is 7% more likely to be scum. 32% to 39%. Not bad odds. Then factor in the fact that his power is dangerous in the hands of scum. This means there is as much as a 39% chance that that power is already in the hands of scum. NOW factor in the fact that Sylar would enjoy that power. Now maybe he cant or wont or will find it too risky to attempt. If you think that's the case then by all means dont vote Oman.

Obviously our watcher can watch Oman but you are busy jumping up and down yelling at her to watch you instead and there is also the idea of her giving her power to Adele. So on some night Sylar can come in and take that power. Heck he could be the Haitian. There's a lot of problematic scenarios. I dont want that power in the hands of scum whether Oman is scum already or if Sylar takes it.

Given the unlikeliness of guessing correctly on day one, our correct course of action is clear.

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Now Zoneace:

1) I just think waiting until we get a MODICUM of actual info before we kill a known power is a decent idea.

This did not answer my question. Normally I would see your point. But you seem to be working at cross purposes. There is a good argument to be made for ignoring powers altogether and just lynching based on scumminess. That is how every day one goes because players have long realised that a lynch is better than a no lynch. Otherwise every day one would end in no lynch. But your argument is predicated, it seems, on the usefulness of the power roles. As such it is unclear to me why you refuse...and I mean refuse... to address the argument that there are roles in the game that are in fact not only useless for town but in fact harmful for town. Therefore your own argument of power-based rather than scumtell based criteria should lead you to advocate Oman's lynch. Yet you again refuse to even address the existence of the argument.

2) because, if we can't trust Oman, we can't trust adele (we can't trust you, we can't trust me). Why should i give my power to somoene night 1 that i have no reason to trust yet? Also, what's wrong with a little self preservation. Until i get some idea of who i can trust, i'm gonna self preservate the fuck out of this game. I mean honestly, why is that a problem? You want the tracker to try and not survive?

I want the tracker ability to survive as long as possible. If you are town your own life is secondary to meeting the town's win condition. As Fonz just pointed out in his last post:

This has been explained enough times. An investigative or protective role in the hands of scum is actually to that scum's detriment, since the scum either has to use it (which prohibits that particular individual from killing) or lie and make up a result/protection, which can lead to that scum being outed.

yet you refuse to address, rebut or concede this point.

At this point I am, in isolation, seeing a strong argument for you and Oman as scumbuddies. Yet you both swear that you are town. How about you start acting like it. If the tracker ends up lynched by the "scumtells only" crowd it will be your fault. Not theirs. Now - I'm not telling you that you NEED to give your trackability to Adele. There's no need for scum to know that you are doing it or when and frankly I think she's likely top on the list for Nightkills (which no one seems to be remembering) but your logic as to why you wouldnt consider it doesnt follow.

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I'm confused about that part. I wasnt sure when writing it whether the Sylar role could go to someone in the mafia as well. I also couldnt remember if it was three mafia or two. Normally I would go look that stuff up immediately but both this site and my home computer are causing me to be less thorough than usual.

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@shafted re 596: I was unclear. That wasnt the point I was making. I know that's all he can do. It's pronoun confusion.

I meant that there are situations in which Sylar can generally know he's not being watched because the watcher is passing her power to Adele by watching her. (I now realise thanks to a reminder from Fonz that I forgot to take into account the Nathan Petrelli factor.)

@Fonz - hmm... you MAY be changing my mind a bit. I'm starting to see how it isnt as powerful QUITE as I thought for Sylar, though it is still very troublesome as mafia. He can still switch Yvonne's vote as watcher. He doesnt have much reason to move the tracker, that's true, and he's already doc proof and he can't affect the jailkeeper. I could see him using it, though, in ways you havent considered. Like using a tracker result to cast suspicion on someone who is pressuring him.

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No. He just has to create any situation where someone earnestly accuses someone else of being incorrect.

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Any way, you've convinced me that I overstated the fears of Sylar taking on that power since he's already untrackable and doc proof and the jailkeeper is unaffected. Now, how about if Oman is mafia? Is there any useful application any one can see for keeping that power in the game from a townside perspective?

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Sylar or mafia wants to kill someone. The watcher role is dangerous to them. They possess the roleblock power - either because Oman is already mafia or because Sylar takes it. Or maybe because Oman and Adele are both mafia. :p The scummo targets the watcher and moves them out of the way. Proceeds to kill.

It is not clear to me... is someone is bus driver affected they dont get told they ahave been bus driven, as I recall. The roleblocking power makes far less effective the closest thing to a cop we have.

I also can't see any townie use for the damn thing.

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Yup - basically given all information I'm still for lynching Oman. Though Fonz has definitely helped to discipline my thinking.

As for Oman's big idea, if Oman does live until night, I can think of at least one way his power could be immediately useful. I dont know if it is worth keeping him alive for. Basically Oman can give useful powers to Peter/Adele against the will of the person owning them. That's potentially what he was thinking of. That could be useful, certainly. But that's all I can think of in terms of brilliant townside gambits.

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Well, I can't figure out what that magic plan could be other than the one I just said. I mean, can you?

Well OK. I've figured one way out that's pretty clever actually. It doesnt need to stay secret. Frankly I think it's more powerful out in the open.

If someone is tracked or watched to their kill they are going to claim they targetted them with their ability if they have one. If at all feasible, they will want to use the kill and the power together. If Oman redirects their power he could conceivably catch them in a lie. I don't know that that is a LARGE amount of imformation though.

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fos Cicero

I don't like how you claim to have a town read on Oman, say you are conflicted, and then proceed to put him at l-1 with no apparent qualms. That's outrageous to me.

I'm cool with being outrageous to you. I've been quite transparent with my motivations. If I wanted to just force a mislynch I would have just talked about how scummy Oman seemed to me. It's really quite an easy thing to do. I could do it in a future post to prove it by example if you like.

My town read was on Oman as of page 11. It changed. I believe I said that. The only town read I ever had on the guy was him stating that he is town.

Oh. Aren't I supposed to remind you never to play in a game of mafia with me ever. You may need to replace.

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I'm here but I'm already voting. What more can I do?

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Am I mixed up? I thought giving your powers to Adele was your idea and everyone else poo-pooed it.

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Tap tap tap.

Is this thing on?

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I'll go first because my power is low priority. I added Shaft.ed to my network last night. Tried to talk to him but he didnt answer me on time.

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He picked it up but I don't know when. The way it now works is after all night choices are in I can then speak to the person I chose to network that day. On additional nights I can speak to them from night start though. So basically he only had 24 hours. Plus I didnt give him much to respond to. Just told him what I'd like him to do tomorrow night if he is town and thinks it sensible. Which action shall remain between he and me. Because such one on one's are the only benefit of this role.

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Shaft.ed, I agree but I think the power could become more useful towards the end game if I am blessed to survive so long. It may just be useless though. We'll see.

At the moment I opt for full disclosure because I can't trust anyone including Adele. If I thought I could trust her I'd say we should stay quiet. My general thinking is that openness will keep everyone honest and ferret out the lies. I'm dissuadable from this position with a good argument but at the moment I think silence helps scum more than town.

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He's the person in the game that would most like to know whether or not Gorgon phased out last night. I can't see any townie wanting to make that information public, however it would be mildly useful to mafia.

Im a townie and I want access to that information. Especially after what CKD just said.

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Yeah. Im not sure Shaft.ed fully gets the role. Or maybe I dont. As I understand it, the point is Sylar cant kill if he's jailed. (a jailkeeper isnt a doctor. It's a doctor AND full role blocker combo). So the fact that Sylar didnt kill last night points to Gorgon directly as being the SK.

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Of course. And we know what he'll say...

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I just want to raise this as a point:

SK (1): Despite appearances, you are Sylar. ... Each night you

may

target a player and kill them and eat their brains. Doing so will mean you gain their Powers1.

Italics are mine.

What if Sylar has just decided that the smart move for now is to not kill anybody?

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That all depends on who he is. I hope it's as simple as - it's Gorgon. I just want to raise the idea that he may try to let the town and mafia do his dirty work for him until the watcher/tracker and Adele are dead.

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She dove in without reading carefully again.

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She dove in without reading carefully again.

did she admit to that?

No.

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DGB you still have not confirmed that you understand that ANY ROLE could be scum in this game. Your initial posts demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of that aspect of the game. Do you now understand that ANY ROLE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING SCUM? Roles get picked. Then who is scummed gets randomly picked. Do you get that?

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To others. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Adele is probably scum based on the simple principle that Adele is still alive.

Discuss.

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DGB you still have not confirmed that you understand that ANY ROLE could be scum in this game. Your initial posts demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of that aspect of the game. Do you now understand that ANY ROLE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING SCUM? Roles get picked. Then who is scummed gets randomly picked. Do you get that?

Aye, I have trouble wrapping my head around this.

Well... start. Making any suppositions based on who is scum or sylar based on what role they have will mean that your argument starts from a false premise. This game is a "smalltown" game. It's a different variation of mafia. Invented by Adele no less. Roles are picked by the players. They are open. Everyone knows them. Then the scum positions are randomly assigned. Challenging I know but there it is.

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To others. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Adele is probably scum based on the simple principle that Adele is still alive.

Discuss.

This is the dumbest thing I've said out loud in a mafia game ever. Pressed send and then gave myself a giant headsmack.

My apologies.

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Mod, could you update the first post to show DGB

?

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Are we still waiting on people's night actions? I think we are.

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Cicero. Does mathcam seem scummy to you? For a computer?

I dont know. I dont have a lot of strong feelings about who is scummy in this game yet. It's still early. And I havent really wrapped my head around mathcam. You've made me want to take a look at him but my deep think skills are in another game on this beautiful sunday so I'll get back to you.

Why you askin' me in particular?

I'm still leaning toward a Gorgon lynch as our best strategy pending better information but I very much want some better information so I think I'll soon be peppering this game with questions. Still, may as well back my Gorgon opinion up with a vote for the moment.

Vote: Gorgon

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I would not accuse you of that. Gorgon's claim made me raise my eyebrows as well.

What makes you think Shea isnt paying attention, Gorgon?

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No one has done all that much "active scumhunting" today EXCEPT DGB.

I find this game, all in all, doesnt have much of that really. I feel like we're kinda waiting for our powers to do the work for us.

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prod the fonz, please mod..thanks

Fonz is V/LA

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I'd love to say more. I havent thought of anything more to say. How about this: The Gorgon lynch worries me just because that role is something Sylar might want. That being said, there was something about the way Yvonne swooped in that made me think maybe we'd caught scum anyway. A feeble contribution, I know. I will look for more.

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We lynched one guy to keep his role from Sylar. I don't plan to make it a habit. That would be dumb.

There is a 50% chance that Gorgon is NOT the SK. How could that NOT worry me?

We started voting Gorgon and Yvonne came in and said "what about blocking Gorgon everyday..." trying to direct CKD.

Yvonne did it quick and it just felt...and I do mean felt... like scum worried about their buddy.

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smart ass.

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That's fine . I agree I was unclear.

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The funny thing is Shaft.ed is the one guy who can ask me via PM as soon as night starts. :p

I dont know if I should answer this now or wait until morning, but franky all the answers you need are right inside the quote. If I'm alive come morning I'll happily spell out that which seems obvious to me for the town.

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Only if both of us are nightkilled. Otherwise the message will live on.

I'm only not anwering because ot the etiquette of twilight.

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Who'd ya watch, Yvonne?

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Useful to mix it up each day, I'd say.

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Well I'm happy going first. I tried to add Adele to my network and it failed.

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It specifically said my attempt to recruit her

failed

. And that is all that was said.

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I think our best bet in this game is for everyone to claim everything. It helps to ferret out the lies. If Fonz keeps things hidden we consistenly miss a piece of the puzzle. Our best bet is for people to claim in a mixed up order, each day, and preferably with who claims next chosen by the person who claimed last. Scum already know that a doctor will tend to protect a high value target.

I am confused by why the investigative roles remain alive, as well as the doctor. Maybe it is WIFOM to the next level but it seems odd that scum targetted the one shot suicide vigilante and not the doctor. This and Fonz's reticense to claim his protects puts him higher on my possible scum list.

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Well... this is fun.

Vote YvonneSeer

always going last means always wanting to make sure you're never caught in a lie.

FOS CuriousKarmaDog

Everyone knows you jailed Adele. Why not talk about it?

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DGB hasnt said what she did last night either.

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No DGB - Adele is now a watcher because Yvonne targetted her. You are a dampener. Now: who did you dampen?

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I swear to god I'm not smart enough for this game. My brain was no good at dealing with logic games on the LSAT and this tangled web gives me a migraine.

Yvonne, I dont want you to claim first every day. Frankly I dont care if you claim next. I would like to figure out some insulation against you being scum. Other than that, yes, you going last makes sense. So here is what I propose: TODAY Yvonne goes last for sure.

Unvote

Why?

Because CKD jailed Adele. That means our one pure info role shouldnt be compromised.

I'm happy to have Yvonne post high in the lineup on some other day when there is indeed the possibility that she might be kept honest by Adele. SO Yvonne, consider my foot off your head. Brilliant advocacy could change my mind again but for now I'm more interested in hearing other claims and digesting why on earth CKD jailed Adele.

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Ah there we have some good arguments on the table. A most useful unvote if I've ever done one

Yvonne... How do you respond to these gentlemen? Doesn't Fonz make a sensible point. Either you saw who killed Matchcam or you didn't. So did you?

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Incidentally, we're effectively down two players right now. Adele has no internet access apparently, and we know about Shea replacting out. So there's no point waiting for them to weigh in.

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Of course. My point was that if Yvonne is waiting for them to chime in we'll be here until doomsday.

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I'm the only other person left to claim. It's really not that important the order of the claims unless Yvonne thinks I'm scum that submitted the kill.

Well, I would claim (in general) if it resulted in catching one of the watchers in a lie, which is possible. If Yvonne is scum, she has to make sure she doesn't claim to have seen no-one visiting the player I protected.

Nice coaching. :p

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Whether scum or town, no need to remind her of all the booby traps. :p

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Bleh.

Vote Yvonne

You wanted will of the town. Will of the town was received. Everyone overruled me. And I am highly wishy washy on this point. Do you think the scum are DG, Shaft.ed, CKD AND Fonz? Because by my count that's too many scum.

I think you might be caught scum after all.

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She already claimed. Ninja session ongoing.

She targetted Fonz and says no one targetted you.

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Unvote

For now.

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I honestly still dont like CKD's jailing of Adele. I think it's been the most anti-town move so far in the game. I read his reasoning and I think it's outweighed. It made sense to me that Shaft.ed would end up motivating Adele. We could have had three watcher results. or a watcher and two trackers (remember we don't know if Adele can track as well as watch because we dont know who Zoneace targetted.) Now we only have one watch answer. That seems suspect to me.

I'm not voting CKD at this moment but Cic'ro not happy.

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Ah. k. Thanks.

Point stands though.

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CKD, you didnt have to target anyone. But yeah, I might have been a good choice. DGB too. Maybe the right move was to not make a move. Did you feel precluded by the need to have an alibi? In that case, DGB was the way to go probably.

All you did was lock up a player who was unlikely to perform the NK last night anyway because we'd all be demanding to know who she targetted and she had a good chance of being motivated. Actually she had the best chance of being motivated, frankly.

I'm sorry but as good as your reasoning may be it strikes me as sub-optimal play.

But as has been shown I'm being stupid in this setup, so I'll now await the post by Fonz telling me what I'm missing.

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Let the record show that my 956 and Shaft.ed's 955 are Ninja posts. My answer is not in reply to what he posted. It is independent of it. So we both came up with the answer to what CKD should have done independently.

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The answer to your question is WIFOM. But they still wouldnt send out the watchers at this stage. Too risky.

Yes. DGB claimed to target TSQ. I think basically an alibi measure.

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Fonz being alive makes sense for the reason Fonz said. There was the possibility of THREE watchers last night. The doctor would be too high a risk for any scum to target. Mathcam kinda makes sense. His probability logic got Gorgon killed. That kind of thinking is way too dangerous and he was less likely to be watched because people would focus on watching the high quality investigative rolls.

Fonz was right in correcting me. We can draw no conclusions about his alignment from him still breathing.

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We can draw no conclusions about his alignment from him still breathing.

Cicero in 'breathing is not a scumtell' shocker.

Sometimes it is. Often in fact.

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claim what?

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No worries.

Is CKD a poo head or is CKD a scummo? Why is Yvonne scummier than CKD? Could they both be scum together?

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I already made the case, CKD. Now I want other people on the record on what their opinion of the case is. I actually don't understand how you could suggest I'm "eluding". I've been pretty up front. I'm not drumming support. I want people on the record. Adele's response was very wishy washy. Yvonne is scummy for wanting to go last but you were just, what was it? "disappointing".

I have no more to add on you besides what I already said. Now I want other people to weigh in on you. They should weigh in on the responses to you as well. Shaft.ed wants to give you a day because you caught us the serial killer. Adele finds your move disappointing. I want to know what everyone else thinks.

You can say all you want you targetted who would be scum, but what you did was target scum who would have been forced to lie as much as twice last night. We have other ways to ferret the watchers. Last night's action by you undeniably helped the scum out.

I think you are too smart not to know that. (Quite frankly I'm a member of the CKD fanclub. You're a great player) And I think you are too smart to do it and not have a good reason handy.

[cicero]

Why do you keep wanting me to repost my case? There's no lack of clarity. That's just weird. I'll also vote when I want to vote. For someone who doesn't like being directed, you seem pretty comfortable directing.

And yes - if there had not been a kill last night I would not be saying the same thing. But there

was

a kill last night. A kill that escaped scrutiny because somebody unnecessarily locked up a watcher.

[cicero]

That's it, CKD. There isn't anything else. I'm accusing you of a sub-optimal choice in a game wherein, you are correct, there aren't many nights available. See how up to speed you are!

I'd love to give you a massive case with lots of other parts but there isn't one. Your play other than that has been fine and I'd expect no less. The fact is that your move was more optimal for scum than town.

As for barking up your tree, the way for me to figure out if you have scumbuddies or not, or if you are scum is to press you and get other people's reactions. You know better than to ask me to outline who your scumbuddies are. Your buddies could be anyone. This mafia thing ain't an exact science.

Shaft.ed made some good points. Adele's made some too. We need to fill TSQ's chair. I'd like to hear more from DGB and Fonz on this subject.

[cicero]

We need to fill TSQ's chair. I'd like to hear more from DGB and Fonz on this subject.

there is one thing you and I are both in agreement on.

CKD you need to understand that *I* am not convinced you are scum yet (and I'm not convinced you're not either). But this is a very appropriate line of inquiry and I want everyone weighed in.

[cicero]

A kill that escaped scrutiny because somebody unnecessarily locked up a watcher.

Here he's trying to make it sound as if Adele would have 100% been watching Mathcam last night. While I know this can't be known for certain, I would definitely put the odds of her not watching Cam much greater than the odds she would have.

Shaft.ed, I am not! Why not? Because that would be stupid and, at least in this particular respect, I ain't stupid. My answer is the same as Fonz's which he articulated very well:

This is, erm, disturbing. The notion that locking up Adele did not cause the town harm is not the same as the notion that it could not have caused the town harm. Imagine the situation where I didn't doc protect anyone or CKD jailed me, and say TSQ died.

If there had been three watchers going, Mathcam was a perfectly reasonable choice to watch. The rest of what you are saying is WIFOM.

CKD keeps telling me I need to shoot in the dark to find the person who took the shot. But I don't know who took the shot. What I do know is the guy who blindfolded the more experienced watcher when I know he knew better.

Vote: Curiouskarmadog

[cicero]

O_o

CKD: You sent that question at 2:23 and then a followup "I'm still waiting" post at 2:59. It's now 3:09 I'm an adult with a job, son. Chill. You'll get all the answers you want when I have the time and headspace to devote attention to them. A still waiting post after 40 minutes. I love you CKD, but honestly, get a life or something.

[cicero]

I just did some re-reading and have been keeping up. I'm pretty much convinced Yvonne is TOWN.

The cases against her are crap. And her defenses are kicking your asses and taking your names.

[cicero]

BUT!

"What about having ckd jail Gorgon every night from now on?"

You should write a bit of a paragraph on your thinking on this because it seems pretty boneheaded (whether you're scum or town). What was your full thought process, Yvonne?

[cicero]

I just did some re-reading and have been keeping up. I'm pretty much convinced Yvonne is TOWN.

The cases against her are crap. And her defenses are kicking your asses and taking your names.

Her post was made at 3:46, yours at 3:49. One minute to find her post, one minute to read it, one minute to type, 10 seconds to check for typos and for the post request to the fetch the server, leaves you with basically less than ZERO seconds to THINK about what she wrote.

I had just used the drop down menu to read all her posts, your posts, and CKD's posts and I had come up with the same things she had. Particularly with respect to you DGB. Then I came back and saw what she had written and had to laugh because I was considering writing the same post.

Incidentally, if you start thinking me and Yvonne are scumbuddies, the correct play is to LYNCH ME!!!!! NOT HER!!! I am about 80 times more expendable.

[cicero]

what part of her defense is kicking our butt cicero? she doesnt have a defense...


and what did she do to change from this post?

Bleh.

Vote Yvonne

You wanted will of the town. Will of the town was received. Everyone overruled me. And I am highly wishy washy on this point. Do you think the scum are DG, Shaft.ed, CKD AND Fonz? Because by my count that's too many scum.

I think you might be caught scum after all.

jesus, I hope someone else is reading this thread.

I did a re-read. And I might go back and do another and change my mind again. But I agree with her responses to you and DGB much more than I agree with your reasoning. She has a good reason for wanting to go last. When I went back I thought she had said she had targetted Adele and I was going to be convinced she was scum. But I was wrong. She targetted Fonz. This is exactly who a watcher, especially a new watcher, would have targetted. Your argument about Fonz coaching her was answered by Fonz himself. He would have already told her who he targetted if he's her scumbuddy.

Let's look at this objectively because you and she are very much parallels. It's your behavior and defenses that are contradictory CKD. She wanted to claim last to catch liars. You wanted to blindfold the watcher to catch liars on a night when having the watcher send in the kill was profoundly unlikely. Which do you think that I think is the safer bet for scum?

Your action was the most anti-town thing in the game. And your defense is an insistence that your poor judgement was the right play, a cry of Indispensible Townie and a repeat push to rid the town of its OTHER watcher. Preferably backed up by the Doc.

Despite seeing the importance of Indispensible townies, you had no problem robbing us of one at a crucial point in the game.

I'm sorry CKD. I'm townie. And you're scum.

And if you ARE town, don't blame me for your mislynch if it happens. Blame yourself. It was a bonehead play. Period.

[cicero]

Incidentally, if you start thinking me and Yvonne are scumbuddies, the correct play is to LYNCH ME!!!!! NOT HER!!! I am about 80 times more expendable.

Cicero, if you are town you would not have posted this. IF we have a mislynch we are as good as dead. If you really are town, why would it matter if you are more exxpendable? One mislynch, who ever it is will kill this town...not to mention, if you are both scum, it doesnt matter who goes first...jesus, man you slipped up here.

I think now you are trying to divide up the votes...thats great cicero. yeah I think you are scum too...but you are not the lynch today.

I would like to hear everyone's comments on this post from Cicero.

We are closer to a mislynch than necessary because of your play.

And we can survive my mislynch more easily than Yvonne's because hey - we have the doc AND the jailkeeper, right? That's why you are so indispensible. So if you are going to mislynch anyway - vote me. That leaves you with a powerful townforce in a tight situation 2 to 3 watchers, a doc, a jailkeeper. All my power does is let me give myself an NK alibi.

If I come back around to thinking Yvonne is scum that's fine. But if I don't, yeah, I'd rather take the lynch.

[cicero]

(PS. Whee! This game finally got fun! )

[cicero]

Your argument about Fonz coaching her was answered by Fonz himself. He would have already told her who he targetted if he's her scumbuddy.

ahh this is where you drop the logic ball my friend. Of course he if was scum he would tell her WHO he targetted. BUT, in his post he not only told her he did INDEED target ONE player last night. (meaning he wasnt motoviated or blocked)..if he was blocked for some reason or motivate he might not have had the chance to tell her. Interested on your thoughts on this now.

What difference does it make exactly. She's a watcher who watched the doc. Even if she was scum, its a safe move because it was the right move. You seem to be saying something like "he warned her so that she had more latitude in who she could pretend to have watched", when the easy move was still to claim him. And she would have watched him because she was more likely to need to report!!!". Why exactly couldn't he tell her he was motivated at night? There's a 24 hour period in this game where Night talk continues after all the actions are done. I know this because

it exists for me to use with my new mason buddy

. Any such chat could easily happen during that period. She'd already know about the motivating. There's no need to coach. Fonz's coaching was more likely a dumb town slip up than scum message passing.

Let's look at this objectively because you and she are very much parallels. It's your behavior and defenses that are contradictory CKD. She wanted to claim last to catch liars.

if she is scum, who catchs her? By going last? Adele? I am sure scum would not give Yvonne the kill if they thought Adele would watch her.

Exactly. There's no way Adele did the kill and no way Yvonne did the kill. Because they are both under the most pressure to tell the truth. (Also note that Shaft.ed did the pro-town thing and targetted Adele for motivation.)

Which do you think that I think is the safer bet for scum?

why does it have to be between just us? isnt there 3 mafia in this game? Why am I the best bet when I have confirmed actions each night?

Because your confirmed action was far more beneficial to scum than town. It's the best lead I've got. I mean I would suspect DGB for her wango tango logic, but... she's DGB. You, on the other hand, are CKD and you knew better than to lock up Peter Petrelli whether (s)he was scum OR town.

Your action was the most anti-town thing in the game. And your defense is an insistence that your poor judgement was the right play, a cry of Indispensible Townie and a repeat push to rid the town of its OTHER watcher. Preferably backed up by the Doc.

I am indispensible at this point...and I think that you not only know that..you fear it. Please explain to me how lynching me at this point is the best option for the town.

Simple. You're the best play available. You aren't indispensible if you're scum because you'll just lock up the wrong person... oh wait. Like you just did. The watcher is pretty indispensible too, no? Because if the doc does block (and remember he can be motivated as well), the lead might require the watcher. So this whole indispensability thing cuts both ways.

[cicero]

what a minute, we are closer to a mislynch because of my play? Why is that?

Because Adele might have watched Mathcam had she been given the opportunity. She also might have gotten caught in a lie.

[cicero]

I can't keep up with the deluge but:

And we can survive my mislynch more easily than Yvonne's because hey - we have the doc AND the jailkeeper, right? That's why you are so indispensible. So if you are going to mislynch anyway - vote me. That leaves you with a powerful townforce in a tight situation 2 to 3 watchers, a doc, a jailkeeper. All my power does is let me give myself an NK alibi.

You've got to be freaking kidding me. Avoiding the mislynch is far better than going to night praying that our Doc &/or Jailkeeper, both of whom could potentially be scum, get lucky. Screw it, even if JUST CKD is scum and we mislynch the game is over.

Then the game is pretty much over. These minis at this stage pretty much require a vigilante for the town to do well as near as I can tell. Or blind luck.

If you really think Yvonne is scum, go for it. Lynch her. If you think me AND yvonne are scum. Lynch me. That's all.

[cicero]

Simple. You're the best play available. You aren't indispensible if you're scum because you'll just lock up the wrong person... oh wait. Like you just did. The watcher is pretty indispensible too, no? Because if the doc does block (and remember he can be motivated as well), the lead might require the watcher. So this whole indispensability thing cuts both ways.

We're all indespensible. LyLo and all you know.

Then CKD's argument of indispensibility is bullshit.

Then the game is pretty much over. These minis at this stage pretty much require a vigilante for the town to do well as near as I can tell. Or blind luck.

If you really think Yvonne is scum, go for it. Lynch her. If you think me AND yvonne are scum. Lynch me. That's all.

So since the numbers are bad we should just lynch without much discussion. great plan.[/quote]

Um... who's the discussion generatign factory today, beotch? Me. That's who. Where are you coming up with the idea I want to suppress discussion? That's bizarre dont you think?

[cicero]

OK I'm about ready to push for a cicero lynch. Only thing really holding me back is the fact that he is confirmed targeting Adele last night and I have to read up on him more. But not liking his recent posting much at all.

shafted, I would be more than willingly to agree with you, but you did argue that one reason I wasnt the lynch today because it is confirmed that I made night actions each night. Well you confirmed Cicero today and he knew I blocked Adele before I claimed...so he could be (though I am really doubting it at this point) a very very misguided townie. Shafted, your thoughts on Yvonne? Your thoughts on Fonz's post then her claim?

Finally, we get to the smart point. When I've accused you, your IMMEDIATE response has been that I must be scum. Defend Adele and I MUST BE SCUM. How about you just get to understanding that not everyone sees the game the same way. You did this to me in our last game together too btw. You were town. But you're OMGUSSY town. When town you can't imagine how anyone could think you were scum. So my point with the Lynch ME isnt "Yay! Lynch Me!". It's this: If you think my motives are disingenuous. That I'm going out on a limb to cause you to be lynched instead of Yvonne because she is scum and you are town, then *I AM THE RIGHT PLAY!" otherwise you are just all going to have to accept that at this point I genuinely disagree with you. Period.

[cicero]

EBWOP: Defend Yvonne.

[cicero]

Fonz, read the thread, it was either a slip or you were coaching

CIcero, I didnt think you were scum because you defended adele. I am not being OMGUSy, your lack of logic, your change of heart, and your posts have eluded to your alignment. I think you and yvonne are scum, yes, but I dont think you are the right play. One of the reason I am not the right play is because I obviously made night actions both nights...I think you did too. Yvonne there is no way to tell. You keep mentioning that you might change your mind on Yvonne (given another reread), but you are willing to say "lynch me" instead of Yvonne..this again makes no sense. Lynching Yvonne gives us a lot more information than your lynch, and you know this.

Sorry. How does lynching Yvonne-scum give us a lot more information than lynching Cicero-scum? I'm honestly not clear.

I think the right play is the person who plays scummiest. Your nightchoice was the scummiest, and your arguments between you and yvonne demonstrates a clear double standard which has already been discussed.

Also, and this is the main point: Even if Yvonne DOES turn up scum, it doesn't mean she isn't getting railroaded. By this I mean, I don't think the case against her is very strong and the day was getting dangerously close to "shrug" kill Yvonne. DGB's case, for example, was based on a huge number of assumptions that all turned out to be wrong. (Honestly, DGB in this game so far alone, compare your suspicions to the outcome and tell me what your honest opinion of your spidey sense is.)

If after all this, the case against Yvonne stands and the one against you is unpersuasive to all others, fine. But we're finally getting some good chat going. I'm challenging you and pushing you. I'm calling bullshit on weak cases. I'm gonna keep at it. I'm honestly not worried about being lynched. I *am* worried about a mislynch.

When I went back and read Yvonne, I expected to come back with the idea that she was probably scum. My gut on Yvonne has, throughout the game, felt like she might be scum. On my re-read, this feels like the railroading of a newish player that people aren't familiar with. Don't worry I'll still push her and I reserve the right to change my mind (as always. played with me before?), but at the moment, on re-read, I don't find her play very scummy. At the same time, I found your jailkeeper extremely scummy. And still do. Nothing you've said since has made me think you were less scummy. But Yvonne's replies to you and DGB make me more confident that she's town. Could I be wrong? Sure! TOTALLY! This is mafia

But at this moment, I really don't think I am.

[cicero]

Cicero, did you get that PM during the night or during the start of the day?

Night.

Like I have already said, I wish I had targeted Yvonne instead of Adele. Cicero (whether scum or town) is right…it was a boneheaded move in retrospect.

Targetting Yvonne would have been almost as boneheaded.

Look, here is/was the key to this game. The scum have to act town while really doing a nightkill. So we need to look at ways they use their powers each day to find players that are either lying, or who are playing to scum advantage while pretending to be town.

Curiouskarmadog, Fonz, Adele Shaft.ed and Yvonne, should all be under considerable pressure in early days to do the right thing for town. I should be expected to provide my own alibi by adding a voucher to my network that (hopefully) doesnt end up dead (because then I'm pretty much the sure lynch).

Adele and Yvonne need to watch people and Shaft.ed would need to motivate a watcher. And CKD should be doing something useful like jailing me or Shea or Dripping Goofball.

Last night Shaft.ed would obviously have given Adele motivation powers because it is the most pro-town move. If Adele is scum, getting those powers is a handicap because she's forced to use them in an ostensibly pro-town way.

So what happens instead? CKD does the most anti-town thing available. He blocks Adel from both receiving a motivating power and from watching. If CKD is scum, that means his partner can do the kill.

That means town pretty much has to lynch him as far as I'm concerned. That's why it's such a bonehead move. Every argument he's made since has felt more like scum trying to justify his anti-town choice. My gut is churning and I dont like this at all. Because his sincerity seems sincere. And on gut, I want to go after Fonz and Yvonne. But the person who did the absolutely proven anti-town, pro-scum play is CKD. And I'd like to know where I find the assurance that if we leave him alive, he wont be laughing at us at game end?

I'm not for one moment discounting, btw, that Adele IS one of his two scumbuddies. I dont think the idea of him jailing her to stop her from having to provide town info is so brilliant that it couldnt have been thought of. *I* woulda thought of it. and CKD is at least as smart as I am. But it's a null tell on its own. The incentive for scum to jail her was there irrespective of her alignment.

[cicero]

No Lynch is an interesting idea - personally I'm all for plans that just add a night to the mix (as my usefulness increases each night if I'm not jailed). It occurs that a nokill tonight following a nolynch would be ambiguous in cause - does it demonstrate the efficacy of one of the docs and thus give us information, or just indicate the scum chose to nokill?

I think we have to assume this is exactly the choice they'll make but given Adele's ability to absorb powers I see merit in a do-over of last night. At first blush anyway. I could maybe go with a No Lynch given the stakes of a mislynch.

[cicero]

I can chat with my existing network whether I'm jailed or not. But I can't add new people to my network if I'm jailed. This is more about practicality than realism. Night talk starts before choices get submitted. So the only way to practically deal with me being jailed and unable to communicate with my existing network would be for Seol to PM me and tell me to stop chatting for the final 24 hours in which I can normally try to communicate with my new networkee. And I doubt my network would even notice at that point.

Anyhoo...

Unvote Curiouskarmadog. Vote No Lynch

[cicero]

Not to keep harping on this but the Doc can't self protect. If The Fonz is the only protector left then scum kill him game over.

If that's the case, why are some players considering "no lynch?"

Because it isn't game over. We go into the next day 4-3. If we lynch wrong today then scum kills and we go into tomorrow 3-3 (barring a doc protect.)

[cicero]

Targetting Yvonne would have been almost as boneheaded.

I disagree, at least if I had jailed Yvonne, I would have jailed one of the two I saw the link between Day one, and Adele could recieved shafted's power.

That's why it was

almost

as boneheaded. You couldnt be sure of what Shaft.ed would do. Still can't. Optimal scenario was getting results from both watchers and you jailing someone more useless like DGB, TSQ or me. The idea is to have scum watchers hoist themselves on their own petard. Not have them be able to use you as an excuse. The game isnt yours to solve on your own. It's a team sport.

if we decide to no lynch, why are we talking about what mafia will or wont do...what they should or shouldnt do?

This is a good point and a bad one. If it infers that we shouldnt talk about scum strategy, it goes under what I'm starting to think of as "the fallacy of mafia mental deficiency". Sometimes it's important not to discuss strategy because you dont want the informed minority to know it. But the right move seems to me to be to ask yourself whether they'll figure it out on their own. They arent stupid. In this case if we choose No Lynch we are giving mafia a free move. It is important to discuss the full implications before choosing to do it. The only plus I see from doing it is that Adele could get Shaft.ed's power. Now, since that's the plan, how many different ways could it end up being fucked with by the mafia? A lot. It includes Shaft.ed deciding to motivate someone else to outsmart the mafia, the mafia killing Fonz, the mafia killing shaft.ed, the mafia killing Yvonne. CKD jailing Yvonne while Shaft.ed tries to motivate her... etc. We also need to remember that in terms of power transfer - we don't really have many nights to work with!!! It is already going to be incredibly lucky for town to survive to the end.

All in all, it may be that No Lynch just puts us in the same position we are in today, but with one less pro-town voice, thus making the right lynch very hard to obtain. 4-3 is much worse than 5-2. It's just that it's a little bit better than 3-3

So given all those possibilities, which, if I thought of em off the top of my head, mafia certainly could, it's worth deciding exactly what we hope to get out of the exercise and how we should best go about it. Or whether fortune favors the bold and we should just hold our noses and lynch the most likely scum who, in this case, is you.

Both options are risky and both have their merits.

[cicero]

The only plus I see from doing it (no lynch) is that Adele could get Shaft.ed's power.

So you have no reason to believe The Fonz would pass his power on to Adele. Noted.

Bad notation. I specifically left Fonz out for a couple of reasons. I was hoping it would go unnoticed but since that's a veiled accusation: I'm uncomfortable directing the doc to that extent AND I see a drawback to Adel getting the doc power which I've been mulling. (Obviously I also see the benefit). If she gets the doc power and is scum, it's slightly easier for her to lie to us. I kinda prefer her as a watcher since I dont know her alignment. I'm already deeply uncomfy with how insulated from scrutiny the Fonz is, actually. But I see no drawback to you giving Adele your power. In any event, we

need

to keep whether Fonz will protect Adele as a WIFOM.

But I might be over(or under)thinking this.

[cicero]

What exactly is supposed to be the scum advantage to this observation you're making about my list? Think these things through. The drawback is, if Adele is scum, she can spend her time protecting her scumbuddies and insisting, like Fonz is, on a policy of non-revelation. (A policy I'm still not very comfortable with, by the way). If she watches, then there's the possibility of her catching someone in the act of a kill AND Yvonne might be able to test her veracity. So it's a greater advantage.

Your no-revelation idea has some merit, but I need to think about it more. Overall I still think the only way for a town win in this game is through full information. Just because mafia doesn't kill doesn't mean we cant scrutinise each others motives for who we chose to target. Remember THREE of us are lying.

[cicero]

This seems like a great spot to end THIS conversation. It's controversy makes it an uncertainty. Let's keep it that way.

[cicero]

Here's how. Double blind and encrypted.

One player orders the players from one to eight. Posts it encrypted. Other player generates a random string of integers on random.org and posts it encrypted. Then they both post the encryption strings and we all go decrypt and claim in that order.

[cicero]

generating lists IS dice. I didnt realise there was that function right on the board. Sorry. CKD you make sense.

I cant seem to get the syntax to work right though.


<num_dice>d<sides_per_dice>

Teach me?

[cicero]

<5>d<8>

[cicero]

/shrug.

[cicero]

Yeah. I just cant seem to get the syntax to work for me.

[cicero]

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (8) = 8

Original Roll String: 5d8

5 8-Sided Dice: (3, 2, 5, 4, 4) = 18

K. Got it.

It's totally cheatable. I can hit preview until I get the number I want. I just did.

[cicero]

Ahhhh. Very good. It will work just fine then. We'll just have whoever is claiming do the next dice roll and it will all be ever so happy and efficient. That's IF we are claiming.

Sorry to go all noob on everyone and kill a page of thread.

[cicero]

OK, so folks. What's the play then?

Adele, Yvonne, CES?

A few random thoughts.

I'm still uncomfortable with the idea of

not

lynching CKD. The way I see it his play was glaringly anti-town / pro-scum and can only be described as the right chess move for scum on that day. Our corresponding best move is his lynch. I am more emboldened by the fact that, as his been pointed out, the chances are 3 in 8 that he is scum (as it is for us all). I also think that as nice as 4-3 is instead of 3-3, 5-2 is way better.

That having been said, I'm partial to CKD and my gut tells me that the scums are named Yvonne, Adele and Fonz. Which is problematic since they're the three towniest roles. The players who don't feel immediately scummy to me are CES (because of TSQs play more than CES's and that is mostly about TSQ's attacks on Zoneace, Shaft.ed and Dripping Goofball. However, smirking scum, obviously I'm a smart enough player to know that none of that means a damn thing.

I still think maybe the right play is to hold our noses, vote CKD and hope for the best.

BUT since it's a risky move there's obviously talk of going No Lynch, which I am currently voting for but am quite tepid about. Given the turmoil between my brain and my gut I can still go for it. But I'm still waiting for the quiet people to speak up.

I'm compelled by what Yvonne says when she talks but she isn't scumhunting, no matter what she says. Big scumtell for me. She's also constantly avoiding the question about who she planned to catch in a lie by going last. Yes. this is vacillation. She felt town when she responded to CKD but her overall play is a survivor's game. She isn't the only one though.

Adele's response to being jailed by CKD is underwhelming and her hesitance to post a lot concerns me. I know she has a busy life and some computer monitor issues, however. How are those things going Adele?

I think I need to re-read from the start again. But in the meantime love to here some thoughts from the quieter members please.

[cicero]

Cicero, why do you think DGB is town? Do you have any reason

It's quite imperfect reasoning but her play, and the effort she's put into it, matched DGB town. Not today so much actually, but when she joined in.

I need to meta her as scum though, to be sure. Know of any games where she did all her crazy comparisons and turned up scum? Preferably games with one mafia.

Actually come to think of it, she had been less like that since Gorgon died leaving us with one mafia. That's worth thinking about. She may have no one to catch now.

[cicero]

Yeah. You might be right. But you'll recall her play was quieter in Doctor Who as well - remember MoS pointing it out? - and she came up town.

[cicero]

*cicero, do you have any reason beyond gut to suspect me, Yvonne, or Adele? Because quite a lot's happened in this game, and I think going by gut alone at this stage is, well, rather dodgy.

Thoughts on scum combinations coming.

It's complicated meta. But it all comes down to the fact that the three of you in this game post very deliberately and not more often than necessary. I find that more common in scum. Townies are quicker on the keyboard. More impulsive.

[cicero]

Listen - I'm a lawyer - I don't do math. Here's all I know. There are 3 scum and 5 townies. Eight players. CKD has a 3 in 8 chance of being scum. Literally.

[cicero]

I've become disinclined to support a No Lynch once again.

Unvote. Vote Curiouskarmadog

I see this as blackjack. I'm sitting on 16. Hit me dealer.

[cicero]

Does the dealer have a face card up?

You tell me.

[cicero]

I've become disinclined to support a No Lynch once again.

Unvote. Vote Curiouskarmadog

I see this as blackjack. I'm sitting on 16. Hit me dealer.

Cicero, why does your vote echo what appears to be a couple people's opinion atm?

Check through the game and see if I'm a big ol' opinion follower. I look more to me to be kind of an out-in-front kinda guy. You apparently can't grasp the concept of honest vacillation, but that's ok. I don't mind.

Why doesnt the fact that Yvonne has not answered shafted's questions bother you?

It does. You, at the moment, bother me more. Looking forward to hearing what she has to say though.

Why should the fact that you dont seem to care what those answers are, not bother us? If you lynch me, and the NK is not protected against, this town loses.

I was hoping you'd say thing about how damn invaluable you are again so that I could cut and paste these posts I found:

I dont care who has what role, if someone is scummy, we lynch them, no one gets a pass.

Vote shaft.ed

spin it whatever way you need to, If I think somehting is scummy it will get my vote...I dont care about who has what role.

am I attacking them because they are suggesting we not lynch powerful roles, or because I dont think anyone should get a pass due to roles and dont like being told what to do with my vote or my "power"?

Well that was fun.

you think I am anti-town for thinking that Adele could be scum and targeting last night, but on the same token you are pointing to a Yvonne, Adele, Fonz scum team..all of which have echoed your opinion today.

I think you're anti-town for targetting Adele. Which was the best chess move for jailkeeper scum and a terrible move for jailkeeper town. Thinking Adele is scum is pretty reasonable.

I've liked Adele's posts when she's posted. Including the most recent one she made. Made her feel more townie to me. More importantly having misgivings in mafia is normal. Trusting one's gut about three players is a dangerous thing.

What happened to Yvonne is town? Why is she now scum? Why is fonz more of a towniest role than mine? You are inconsistent...why?

I'm indecisive because I'm a townie who's honestly indecisive. I can tell you one thing though. Throwing votes at me every time I come back to the idea that you're the play doesn't impress me even a little. Best of luck with the others though.

I no longer think you are very very misguided town..I think you are scum.

That's fine. Jailing Adele was bad play. So is voting me. You should just come to grips that bad play 1 led to my vote for you and that will go a long way to stopping you from making bad play 2. I AM glad you finally came around to my way of thinking on one issue. IF you think Yvonne AND I are scum, you should vote me.

I think your buddy is Yvonne....I hope the third is not Fonz. You bussed her when the wagon was going her way. You attack me and adamantly defend her when the suspicions came my way...when the suspicions slowed, the wagon wasnt going to happen, and the talks of a no lynch swelled, you tried to look town and your vote went there. Then all of the sudden Yvonne is scum again. Now, the No lynch isnt taking hold, your vote returns to me...

Heh. It's like you've never played with me. I change my mind a lot as town. Go look. How about Mini 499 or go check out the recently completed mafia 69. I adamantly defended her responses to you. They were very good. Since then she's taken a powder. I don't know what her schedule is like. I think the outstanding question is a good one that needs answering. I just think you're a bigger problem.

I, sadly, don't know who to trust. It's a funny thing. I also know that people on mafiascum are excellent liars. Yvonne's responses to you were far better than your responses to her. At the moment I think you're a better play. Do I have misgivings about that? Constantly. Apologies for exhibitting a lack of confirmation bias. No wait. I'm not sorry at all.

I mulled the No Lynch. Look at when I changed back to you. Then look up and find Adele's post. And look at Fonz's. You'll find an odd thing happened. They changed my mind. You'll also note that I had already called my support of the idea tepid.

Hey - what about Adele. She was very high on your scumlist yesterday. So high that you jailed her. What's your opinion of her now? Why are all your attacks on Yvonne instead?

This is scum if I have ever seen it.

Are you a betting man?

[cicero]

You just reversed the bet. Gonna have to go for a double humiliation. Sure. I'm up for it. I bet you're scum and you bet I'm scum. Are you willing to bet that I'm scum? I asked you first and you switched it. So what are the stakes, big guy?

On Adele - is Adele scum now or not? You didn't answer. I'm not asking why Yvonne is still on your list..."LOL"... I'm asking why Adele has dropped off after she was your top choice last night. As for bussing... if Adele votes you she may be bussing you and she may not be. At the moment she looks townie. As I said before, YOUR move against her made sense for scum whether she is town OR scum.

And yes, you are a hypocrite. You don't care what OTHER power roles get interfered with or lynched. The rule only comes about after you've put us in an unenviable position and are yelling for your indispensable survival.

What have I done that's pro-town? Challenge you for jailing Adele for one. You're either scum or their patsy. Not get confirmation bias for another. Keep an open mind. Weigh the options.

I don't get your point about the Oman wagon. I voted Oman for different reasons than others. I was more up front about wanting to keep that role from Sylar. Seeing as how the other potential lynch of the day was Zoneace I'm good with how things went down.

[cicero]

cicero, why did you want to talk to Adele last night?

Because of her utility. I liked the idea of being able to suggest who she should use her powers on. Same reason I targetted you.

[cicero]

cicero, why did you want to talk to Adele last night?

Because of her utility. I liked the idea of being able to suggest who she should use her powers on. Same reason I targetted you.

You've never suggested to me who I should target in our conversations.

The choices were obvious. One of the watchers. And you targetted... one of the watchers! When I selected you there was a tracker alive.

[cicero]

Oh and Shaft.ed, if we're going to bring up the sacred quiet conversations shall we then mention that you suggested I target Mathcam.

[cicero]

Like how you leave TSQ and DGB off of that list. Very classy.

Oh I know. You couldnt be too obvious about it. Just get me in the ballpark and MAYBE I'll end up giving scum an alibi.

Nothing definitive. Just as long as we're noting our night chitchat we may as well get it all on the table.

[cicero]

The choices were obvious.

If the choices are obvious your reason was irrelevant.

When I selected you there was a tracker alive.

[cicero]

Sure why not? How about your plan to have the investigative roles "coordinate" their actions by communicating their targets through you?

I still think that was a good idea.

[cicero]

K. There is an undercurrent in this game that may as well be formally articulated. Odds are stacked against town. Very stacked. There's no super strong cop role. No vigilante, and there were 4 scum, one of which was a power stealer.

This is why this game has already had not one but TWO separate calls for a No Lynch.

In that context, the idea of jailing Gorgon indefinitely - while not a good idea - looks to me more like townie fear of a mislynch now that we know that Gorgon wasn't scumbuddies with anyone. In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure. (if Sylar killed again, it cleared Gorgon).

Does this mean she's definitely town? Of course not. When we each play as scum we all try to play as townie as possible. But the idea that there was no townie motive for that suggestion is incorrect.

Next, Fonz, what exactly is wrong with her voting Dripping Goofball? What gives is not a question. The reasons she gave made sense.

Yvonne: Please don't help me or damn me with faint praise. Fonz is exactly right. Your argument as to why I'm not scum presumes your own innocent, whereas the case against me is that I'm your scumbuddy trying to save your ass and hang an innocent man.

Yvonne re the Protection question: What I think is troubling Shaft.ed is this. Your answer seemed to infer that by going last you might catch a liar. But then when you were forced to claim early you said you targetted Adele, who you already knew had been jailed. You said no one targetted her. So I think the supposition is that this looks inconsistent. Your response after is that two others had yet to go. But if neither of them targetted Yvonne, what lie could you catch? Do you see the point?

[cicero]

In that context, the idea of jailing Gorgon indefinitely - while not a good idea - looks to me more like townie fear of a mislynch now that we know that Gorgon wasn't scumbuddies with anyone. In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure. (if Sylar killed again, it cleared Gorgon).

I disagree, and further to the point, why is one thing which seems to me scum-benefitting (tying up the JK) so obviously just due to a town fear of mislynch, but another scum benefitting action (jailing a watcher) cause for your vote?

CKD is more experienced than Yvonne by far. Yvonne floated a trial balloon for the town to consider. CKD just went ahead and did what he did. I also see a difference between tieing up a rather conflicted role like the jailkeeper, and tieing up a person who could act as motivator, watcher, or extra doctor if given the right powers. CKD's action was ENORMOUSLY and BLATANTLY anti-town. It's almost impressive in its sheer audacity, if he is scum. This is far different than brainstorming a way for town to maybe have its cake and eat it too. Can you not see the obvious difference?

Does this mean she's definitely town? Of course not. When we each play as scum we all try to play as townie as possible. But the idea that there was no townie motive for that suggestion is incorrect.

When people propose ideas, it makes sense that you look at the suggestion and work out if it's broadly town-favouring or scum-favouring. Of course town occasionally suggests scum-favouring things- but why would you blithely assume Yvonne and Adele (who presumably is sufficiently au fait with the permutations to realise what the effects of typing up the jailkeeper would be) have town motives in proposing that plan?

I don't blithely assume anything. I'm raising the counterpoint based on all the information at my disposal, when others were blithely assumes the opposite and not even considering a plausible pro-town motive. I do that. And I'm not even saying it clears her. Does your suggested scumgroup include Yvonne as well as Adele because only scum would suggest it? Odds suggest it might be raised by people with town intentions.

Next, Fonz, what exactly is wrong with her voting Dripping Goofball? What gives is not a question. The reasons she gave made sense.

Cicero, I have to wonder here whether you actually read my last post. Her argument for why she thinks you're town is explicitly based off her own innocence, and implicitly based off the notion that CKD is scum. If she actually thinks CKD is town, then how can you going after CKD rather than her be any kind of town-tell on your part?

I dont have any time for her reasons why I'm town. They meant exactly nothing to the rest of you in terms of weighing my motives and alignment which is why eyebrows were raised. They are evidence of her inexperience. From her internal perspective, obviously, they are fine. They are just reasons that start from the first premise of her own innocence.

What I'm asking is what is wrong with her case against DrippingGoofball - which centres on DGB trying to suspect her no matter what facts she's using as premises turn out to be false. This is a separate point from whether she suspects me or CKD. CKD and I can both be town, and for various reasons she can infer that. In fact at various times several other players have held exactly that view. Her opinion as stated is:

1. She knows she's town and looks at the game through that prism. So she wonders why scum wouldnt just go along with her lynch. This reasoning means nothing to the rest of us and should just be deleted but from her perspective no other premise is required. She's correct.

2. So this second premise you suggest is necessary - of CKD being scum - is completely unnecessary. Premise one stands up whether he's scum or town. So what's really happening is a seperate discussion in which she states that she infers that she goes back and forth on CKD. His night action was scummy. But his adamance makes her think he might be town. Nothing novel about this stance. We've only all seen it a thousand times each in other games and situations.

3. Having eliminated two suspects at the centre of controversy, she moves on to make a case on a third party - Dripping Goofball. The case she makes is a reasonable one. It is:
a) Dripping Goofball suspected Yvonne based on her links to Mathcam and Gorgon
b) Gorgon came up SK. Mathcam came up town.
c) DGB insisted her case on Yvonne remained unchanged from the day before.
d) But that was impossible because the case made had been shattered.

That part of her case against DGB is unassailable.

e) Then DGB suggests a case for pushing Gorgon and then backing down. This case is debatable, but really only makes sense if they are linked in Mafia.
f) Two weird night actions now which cannot be confirmed. We should reflect on whether they were weird or not. I don't know. This doesnt say much.

So I asked: What's so wrong with her making this case, because it seemed like what YOU wanted to do was tie three completely seperate lines of thought to make them interdependent. Which they quite obviously are not.

[cicero]

CKD is more experienced than Yvonne by far. Yvonne floated a trial balloon for the town to consider. CKD just went ahead and did what he did. I also see a difference between tieing up a rather conflicted role like the jailkeeper, and tieing up a person who could act as motivator, watcher, or extra doctor if given the right powers. CKD's action was ENORMOUSLY and BLATANTLY anti-town. It's almost impressive in its sheer audacity, if he is scum. This is far different than brainstorming a way for town to maybe have its cake and eat it too. Can you not see the obvious difference?

OK, CKD's more experienced than Yvonne. Adele? Also, it doesn't strike me that Yvonne is exactly a raw newbie. She has six months on the site and six completed games. Also, we're comparing apples to oranges. Night actions and daytalk are fundamentally different things. I cannot think of many bigger scumtells that can occur during the day than a) pushing a scum-favouring plan, b) attributing to others positions they never held (claiming that everyone supported the idea of 'watchers go last' in perpetuity) and c) refusing to claim when it is the consensus that one do so.

Read my quote. Read Fonz's quote. Is Fonz's quote on the subject of my quote? Fonz: I'm not really enjoying being in the defend Yvonne business, when I'm really in the CKD is the play business. There is a 3/8 chance that Yvonne is scum. 37.5%. The idea that I would say she is definitely not scum is stupid stupid stupid. Now, you point out 3 scumtells for Yvonneseer. I see issues with them but she's a big girl she's gonna have to handle them herself. Defending her is not my job. It's more of a biproduct of this conversation. Suffice it to say, I don't see any of those actions the same way you do. But maybe I'm just stupid. more importantly, if you're going to do things by quote pyramid, you should probably address what's in the pyramid.

Once again though, you make a good point. Adele can't use inexperience as an excuse. So Adele is scum too, right?

I don't blithely assume anything. I'm raising the counterpoint based on all the information at my disposal, when others were blithely assumes the opposite and not even considering a plausible pro-town motive. I do that. And I'm not even saying it clears her. Does your suggested scumgroup include Yvonne as well as Adele because only scum would suggest it? Odds suggest it might be raised by people with town intentions.

Where does anyone assume that suggesting something scummy makes someone definitely scum? Whereas you appear to be arguing precisely that CKD's action is entirely incompatible with his being town (since you claim to get a protown feeling from him otherwise).

Your biggest argument for lynching Yvonne is that she suggested something scummy. Why is Yvonne scum for suggesting it and Adele not? I assume your answer is because in toto she's displayed more scumtells to you, but we both agree then that floating that trial balloon could be done by both a town playe or a scum player. You seem to imply, regardless of you express qualifications, that this is very strong evidence for someone being scum. Therefore you must strongly suspect both Adele and Yvonne of being scum

What I'm asking is what is wrong with her case against DrippingGoofball - which centres on DGB trying to suspect her no matter what facts she's using as premises turn out to be false. This is a separate point from whether she suspects me or CKD. CKD and I can both be town, and for various reasons she can infer that.

I never said there was anything wrong in the case on DrippingGoofball itself, did I?

I thought originally you had because of the way you phrased things. What you've done is just ignore her case on DGB out of hand, when she actually made good points. And you've made this weird byzantine argument for it that ties her three separate points together, that I guess we need to revisit again.

What I said was, it's logically inconsistent to make one argument premised off CKD being scum, and then vote someone else.

This is what I've never gotten. What argument exactly is necessarily premised on CKD being scum? Oh this:

CKD and you could OF COURSE be both town. But it's not valid to argue for your innocence off the basis of CKD's guilt, then vote someone other than CKD.

But you've made this giant logical leap off of an innocuous statement:

I think cicero is likely town. There's absolutely no reason for him to be scum and prevent a mislynch today by defending me, especially since I was the easiest target and we are in some sort of potential lylo.

You seem to be really bugged by the syntax of a post that's really not different than what Mathcam is saying. It isn't premised on CKD being scum at all. You just hate the words "prevent a mislynch" because you realise that CKD could also be a mislynch, and now you can't see the forest of what she's trying to communicate through those particular trees of language. You are either deliberately or accidentaly obscuring that which is perfectly clear. Yvonne saying: "I know I'm not scum. I think I was an easy mislynch. Cicero, who I know is not my partner, pushed against my mislynch and for a harder lynch. That is a towntell for me." That's all she's saying.

CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for this argument.

This is the crux of my argument. For Yvonne's argument in your favour to carry any weight whatsoever, CKD must be scum.

so you argument fails because you've accidentally or deliberately inserted a premise which does not in fact exist. You've simply misunderstood.

Your unwillingness to vote Yvonne, 'preventing a mislynch' is only a towntell IF CKD IS SCUM. My position is that it is not a towntell to shun a particular town wagon, if the alternative is another town wagon.

This is wrong. My willingness to vote Yvonne is a towntell, in her argument and from her perspective, because the path of least resistance was to jump on the Yvonne wagon. From anyone else's perspective (well other townies) my actions must also be seen as me being Yvonne's scumbuddy. That presumption (me being Yvonne's scumbuddy) is perfectly sensible to consider. Your argument, I'm sorry, is not.

So this second premise you suggest is necessary - of CKD being scum - is completely unnecessary. Premise one stands up whether he's scum or town.

No it doesn't. I'd like you to explain why favouring one wagon on a town player over another wagon on a town player could reasonably be considered a town tell.

Townies don't know who else is townie. Her argument, as pointed out to you repeatedly, was based on me going against easy pickins. The premises are: 1) Yvonne was an easy lynch. 2) CKD was a harder lynch. 3) Cicero didn't go with the flow. 4)Yvonne (asserts) towniness. Therefore conclusion: Cicero towntell. Then she moves on. CKD's alignment is not a premise in the argument. Basic logic.

If you concede that it cannot, then Yvonne's defence of you and her non-voting of CKD are inconsistent with one another, and one or other (or both) must be invalid.

I have beaten this conclusion silly.

Now, you have next questioned whether CKD was the harder lynch. This is a fair objection (if incorrect). It questions the truth of an actual premise rather than inserting one that does not exist. You can try to redraw history if you like but the fact is that all the blocks were gently tumbling into place for an Yvonne lynch, and I definitely DEFINITELY could have gone a long way towards offering her a length of rope.

In other news,

Vote: YvonneSeer

With CES voting CKD, that reduces the likelihood of a CKD/CES pairing. I don't see CKD as scum with cicero or Adele (Adele's possible scumtell of suggesting CKD lock up Gorgon indefinitiely, and CKD's of locking up Adele, both seem to be more reasonable from a scum perspective if the other is town). I know I'm not scum with CKD. This, from my perspective, leaves an awfully limited number of options for CKD scumgroups, and a majority of plausible CKD scumgroups from my perspective also include Yvonne (I think Yvonne/Adele are likely scumpartners, but Yvonne is more likely to be scum if Adele is not than vice versa, imho). I'm pretty confident this is the better lynch.

This stuff above is worthy of some consideration. But just as Yvonne's self-referential statements must be dismissed. So must yours. Particularly in light of recent obfuscation.

CKD and [Shaft.ed-DGB-Fonz]

Off the top of my head, at the very least a pairing with any two of the above is perfectly likely from my perspective and would make some sense based on recent play. But I'm not done thinking about this aspect of things.

And now I need to go to lunch. I dont want to stall play so this imperfect post will have to do for now.

[cicero]

Shaft.ed, I will respond to that after work. I wanted to pop in one more time to do this crazy little number:

Unvote. Vote Drippinggoofball

[cicero]

Basically, cicero, I fundamentally disagree that CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for her argument in your defence. I don't see how her defence of you for defending her has any validity if CKD is town.

From what I can tell Fonz, after what I comprehensively demonstrated, it is impossible to continue to hold that opinion honestly. This isn't an opinion issue. It's a flowchart issue.

If you want me to not add +1 to my fonzie scumdar you're going to have to demonstrate for me the error of my ways.

Others can look at my posts and Fonz's posts and make up their own minds on the issue.

[cicero]

I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?

Yeah. I just came on to do it, actually.

I just don't see why you see things that way. First she had three votes. One of them was mine. Calling them pressure votes doesn't make them not votes. that's a wagon I definitely could have run with as scum.

Dripping Goofball had made a lengthy case against her and said she planned to repeat it. Yvonne had been ruminated on as scum repeatedly throughout the game by myself and others. Yvonne had done several things that were seen as scummy by strong players who are good at running cases including the whole "lets jail gorgon indefinitely" and then the hesitance to claim. She's also an easier target because she posts less which is inherently scum-seeming. Her posts on this site since she got her are about 267.

In the other direction was Curiouskarmadog, who was one of the heroes of the day before. His choice to bag Sylar saved our asses. You'll note that even Adele, the jailed party described her jailing as disappointing but didnt immediately pursue it. (She did however jump on the wagon once I turned it into the easy wagon to join, you'll notice. Which to me is a scumtell). Posts since he got here? Over 3000. A guy like that is gonna be much better on defense you can count on it.

So you guys can assume that they were neutral targets but I can tell you that when I decided to push against CKD I knew...*knew*... that it would be a nasty clawfilled battle that I might just lose. CKD is very smart and quite aggressive and quite possibly town. He likes to OMGUS people that accuse him and that has absolutely nothing to do with his alignment. He did it to me in Mafia69 as town. It's just him. In fact, it might be a town tell.

So if I was scum and wanted to go with the flow wagon, I would have picked Yvonne in a heartbeat.

[cicero]

I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?

Both of them are voting me.

The girl made some good points on you, DGB. How do you justify standing behind a case that had been proven demonstrably false following the deaths of Gorgon and Mathcam.

[cicero]

Oh and incidentally - the CKD wagon became an easy wagon later. It didnt stay the hard wagon. I shifted it. So no one else gets townie points from jumping on my skinny little back.

[cicero]

Shaft.ed, I'll be able to talk to you if I'm in jail. I mentioned that already.

[cicero]

Fonz - her argument was predicated on CKD being a harder road to hoe. Not on CKD being scum. You can say she was mistaken or not the case but it still doesnt make CKD being scum a necessary premise. You're just wrong on this one.

[cicero]

Re you in 1216: cool. gotcha

Re this below, your 1205 this is a very good observation.

Thought of the moment. Yvonne is not likely scum. The only part of the case against her I find compelling is the hesitance to claim. The reason that this is scummy is because if she made the kill she has to make something up. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted. If she were the killer logical fake claim was that she targeted Adele.

Fonz's recent vote against the CKD wagon for Yvonne really doesn't seem like a neccassary place to bus a scum buddy so I don't think they are a pair.

Thus I think Yvonne is town.

Please note though that this doesn't make Yvonne town. It just makes her not the shooter. And yes, wipes out that scumtell and therefore weakens the case against her. But she could still be scum doing what she should be doing as a townie.

[cicero]

I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?

Both of them are voting me.

The girl made some good points on you, DGB. How do you justify standing behind a case that had been proven demonstrably false following the deaths of Gorgon and Mathcam.

The death of mathcam erodes only the smaller part of the case I made yesterday. I reckon.

BUT - The way she sorta pushed Gorgon at the beginning of the day, then sorta tried to save his ass (jail him everyday), then sorta didn't show up for the lynch, then didn't vote for Gorgon at all - VERY SCUMMY. Makes me think she was Mafia, afraid that Gorgon might turn up town. None of that has been "demonstrated" to be false. Besides, that's my interpretation of what I saw. She might put a different spin on it. And I don't like that she had to be pushed to claim today. It's a scumtell in my book. It's quite rare for a townie to hesitate, unless they are doctors. But this is smalltown... so stalling the claim is *probably* an even bigger scumtell.

Gotcha. Yvonne claims you're dreamin' it up. You two should have a conversation.

Who else is scummy up in here now, after all you've seen there's been a lot of stuff said. Me obviously for taking Yvonne's part. Anyone or anything else?

[cicero]

I think Shaft.ed has demonstrably absolved Yvonne of being last night's shooter.

We're running out of shooters. I love it

[cicero]

CES: Can you take me through why No Lynch is better with 7 than 8 in LyLo again please.

[cicero]

I'm inclined to agree. My vote will land among those three as well. After some good hard questions.

@DGB, Fonz and CES

of the other two, which one do you think is most likely scum and last night's shooter? Which one is least? Why or why not?

[cicero]

]True, but how exactly could I be caught in a lie, if i were scum? I can't be tracked, because the tracker died night one. If a watcher claims to have seen me visiting a dead player, then who i claim to have visited doesn't matter. Either I'm scum, or the player claiming the result

you can get caught in a lie easily

you will say you visited a player that is alive because if you visit a player they will not be dead. A watcher may have watched that player who is alive. That watcher may have seen that: oh dear, Fonz did not visit that player after all.
Therefore you were the shooter.

I knew there was something wrong with our reasons for why Fonzie shouldnt claim his protections.

Another +1 on my Fonzie scumdar.

[cicero]

Fonz - her argument was predicated on CKD being a harder road to hoe. Not on CKD being scum. You can say she was mistaken or not the case but it still doesnt make CKD being scum a necessary premise. You're just wrong on this one.

If you think pushing a 'hard' town lynch is townier than pushing an 'easy' one, then I just flat out disagree. But at least I can see where you're coming from- you're disputing the premise that it's impossible for it to be a towntell to push one townie wagon in preference to another.

There is nothing wrong with what you are saying above here. Remember this is a small argument that got big.

I maintain that I believe it to be an acceptable premise- and I can think of numerous reasons why a scum cicero might prefer the CKD wagon to an Yvonnewagon. Not least, you're playing with competent players here. You would know that if you went after Yvonne whilst seeming insincere, you'd get called on it.

There are indeed numerous reasons why a scum cicero might prefer a CKD wagon to an Yvonne wagon. One is we are scumbuddies. The rest though, dont make a lot of sense at Lylo in this particular game since the other main reason I can think of is to establish my credibility and I was already proven to be not the shooter. I also didnt need to take a leadership role on a wagon at all. That's a risky move for scum and an unnecessary risk this close to a scum win. But you're right it's still possible and the best argument is that I'm her scumbuddy,

I don't accept the existence of 'easy' and 'hard' lynches. I don't think it's any harder for a newish protown player to come up with a town-sounding rationale for their actions than a vet, because if the player is actually town, that reason actually exists and is the genuine reason for the action.

I find it hard to believe that you genuinely believe what you just wrote in the first sentence. You think all players in all situations are equally lynchable. That's a preposterously unviable position. Moving on from the blanket statement - noob players make mistakes all the time by doing things they think are pro-town but screw them up and get themselves lynched. Especially by scum who, like jackals, prey on those who havent learned to defend themselves yet.

When I see a bad argument directed at a newbie, i point it out. When i see a bad argument directed at a vet, I point it out. People should be attacked and defended on the merits of their position, and all I see w/r/t Yvonne is you playing the newbie card over and over on behalf of a player who's been around just as long as you have. If anything, going after n00bs is more dangerous, because there's the potential for accusations of opportunism and a greater likelihood of getting OMGUSed.

I think the above is a fair point. I have to re-evaluate my position on Yvonne's new-ness. She appears to be neither that new nor that incompetent and Yvonne held the same position. In fact, Yvonne on two occasions seems to be something of Adele's parrot does she not? It was Adele who first suggested the watchers go last. And which one of them was it who first raised the jailing Gorgon idea? Someone else tell me. I'm too lazy to dig through the damn thread yet again.

Anyway, when I was on about her experience it had to do with her number of posts vs. CKD's. I didnt think to check her Topics. In the same amount of time on this board her posts number a bit over 250 and CKDs are over 3000.

But whatever. Screw the noob thing. Her defences against everyone prove she's more than competent and that in turn invalidates any noob defense she might have. And noon scum sputter and screw up lots.

I'm not saying she's scum or town. Just being even-handed here. You make a good point. She's certainly read lots of games even if she doesnt post a lot. It's a good correction.

[cicero]

OK. but just bear in mind that just because YOU dont believe in them doesnt mean I dont and it was my motives that were impugned. So if it's just an abstract discussion it might be better left to mafia discussion. If you think that *I* dont believe what I said I believed than that's a fair ball discussion.

[cicero]

Not really. I don't recall ever having said holding that opinion makes you scum. I said it didn't think it was a valid argument in defence of Adele. You have said on more than one occasion that you find it hard to accept that I honestly believe what i'm saying. I see that as motive-impugning.

Oh yeah. That's fair. I'm clearly getting tired. But it would be way more helpful if you could meta yourself to prove you believe that which is unbelievable.

[cicero]

That didnt actually answer my question. It's because you think it's obvious. You, I think, are pointing out that with one less townie the percentage of the town that is scum goes from 37.5% to 42.8% of town. Correspondingly this gives townies a 5.3% greater "surface area" of scum to hit?

But this fails to take into account the fact that with one less townie it becomes that much easier for scum to lead the lynch. Townies essentially need to be unanimously correct to lynch scum. Scum just need to figure out the one townie that will be easy to trick into joining their chosen mislynch wagon.

I do not see how this provides a net benefit for the town.

Discuss.

[cicero]

I think what is bothering me about Cicero and Yvonne right now, is the fact that Cicero is really going out on a ledge of Yvonne (someone who he did vote early in the day). At this point in the game, I am super paranoid of everyone and cant say I would say anyone was absolutely town. This bothers me.

Cicero’s vote on DGB was not expected, but again he strengthens that link between he and Yvonne.

I may yet vote her again before this game or even day ends. I like her answers but she absolutely refuses to play offense which I take as a major scumtell. She makes a reasonable case against DGB but has no interest in following it up. She's playing to survive not win, and I hate that. She also has a tendency, I think, to just parrot Adele.

I'm in the middle of yet another re-read from the start. This inevitably changes my opinion but we'll see where I come out at the other end. Adele, similarly writes very good posts with excellent tactical advice in them, which I like, but doesnt aggressively pursue anything. I found the way she jumped on the CKD wagon after being so blaze about it out of the gate rather telling. Remember, in my mind I made CKD an easier wagon, and once it seemed like she could ride my efforts to a lynch on she climbed.

Fonz has also been interesting. I'm fairly convinced of his scumminess at the moment, pending a re-read. He got more active once I accused him of playing careful and he has those +2 scum points I mentioned before. He's also free to be the shooter.

CKD though, you aren't forgotten. Your passion says townie to me but your choices and (imho) hypocrisy say scum.

Shaft.ed feels town to me but since I don't trust my gut I'll be reading him even more carefully. He did include Mathcam in his suggestions to me to target but if I couple that with the fact that he can sometimes be less than careful (evidence at beginning of the game) it might just be that he hadnt figured out that the low value players were the ones most likely to get hit last night. But I figured that out so why didnt he?

DGB's pursuit of Yvonne and insistence that her case stood when it had already been blown apart would doom any player that wasnt named DGB. The Gorgon remnants dont feel real to me.

So, CKD, if you're town and feeling paranoid, I can't really blame you.

As for me if you want to meta me buddying up to scum as town, check out Mini 499 and my play with a guy named Pwayne vs. Skruffs. I've definitely been fooled before. I'm not perfect. But personally, I thought the town ignoring what you did at night, and sleepwalking to an Yvonne lynch with no discussion at all, was a serious problem. I'm also naturally contrarian. It's a curse. So I shoved my fist down your throat for a while. Now I need to go back and figure out what I believe after la deluge. Everyone else should too.

Oh and CES, you seem town... which is making me stare even harder to make sure I'm not getting tricked. TSQ really seemed pissed at Zoneace, but so what. I'm still not convinced on the No Lynch wisdom and I had expected a more robust response on the subject, really.

[cicero]

Is Adele generally this obvious as scum? Anyone got a meta?

[cicero]

obviously there is a break down of communication here...Cicero was implying that you are townish because you were hesitant to vote Gorgon....I am asking if that is true..why werent you hesitant to vote Oman? Still waiting for him to address this too.

The breakdown to me appears to be you:

a) not listening, because she just answered you. You have yet to demonstrate that her vote was "hasty" or even undeserved on 'poor Oman'. It appears that it was a random vote that she chose to never move. Can you demonstrate why such a vote could be described as "hasty"? Is it just because it was first, because she JUST explained that.

I mean, if she's scum CKD she knew that Oman and Gorgon weren't scum. So what's her motivation for treating them differently in the first place as scum?

I'm just having trouble putting myself in the mocassins of scum-Yvonne and sorting out the theory that you and/or DGB seem to have. Can you explain it to me better?

It seems to me your language is obscuring the scumtell here because personally in isolation I just call such votes "sneaky". I find it highly suspicious when someone in the early game places a vote on someone and never moves it. +1 Scumminess to Yvonne for quiet wagon surfing. This is not the same as "hasty" since I dont even know how to characterise this accusation by CKD. (CKD - if you want an example of what I mean go back to Mafia 69 and look at Twomz's votes during the volatile and controversial Karen wagon. It wasnt a random vote. But look how he hops on the wagon and then just quietly rides it.

b) What I've said is that there was a possible townish motivation for wanting to have you jail Gorgon. It was because of the fear that we might be killing Sylar's target instead of Sylar. Given that Gorgon's phase power would be very useful to Sylar, this was a reasonable concern that all of us shared, and which even scum would have paid honest lip service to since they want to appear townie and we now know that Gorgon was not one of their team.

Please remember though: Articulating a townie motive doesnt make a person necessarily town, however. Scum try to do the townie thing as much as they can manage it.

[cicero]

b) What I've said is that there was a possible townish motivation for wanting to have you jail Gorgon. It was because of the fear that we might be killing Sylar's target instead of Sylar. Given that Gorgon's phase power would be very useful to Sylar, this was a reasonable concern that all of us shared, and which even scum would have paid honest lip service to since they want to appear townie and we now know that Gorgon was not one of their team.

cicero, you have to agree that it could have been a possble scummish reason too..keeping me busy jailing a possible SK..

Of course I agree that it could have been. I just dont think that was necessarily the more likely reason. It's pretty clear to me which was taking precedence in everyone's mind at the time. I find it odd that having taken a morally dubious action of mixed advantageousness yourself last night, that you are unwilling to consider the possibility of alternate motives in others as well. I got into this argument because townie motives for that suggestion werent being considered by anyone. I got in the argument with you over your choice because scum motives needed to be considered.

Certainly though, if Adele and Yvonne are scum, I suppose having you tied up and knowing what you're up to is useful, just as if you are scum having Adele tied up last night was useful.

[cicero]

No they cant watch her. And what's worse, if the watchers decided to watch TSQ/CES, what DG did last night would preclude them from seeing anything TSQ/CES might try to do. (By which I of course mean shoot somebody).

Which means she's a rockin' choice for a jail cell if she lives through the day.

[cicero]

My bad. Mixed stuff up. DGB can hide the kill from the watchers by targetting the victim. Neither DGB nor the victim could be watched. Targetting the killer wouldnt stop the watchers from catching the killer if they were watching the victim.

And we'ver been over this "don't tell me who to target thing" before, CKD. You'd think you woulda learned.

Incidentally, I'm pretty much convinced CKD is town now. He's off my suspect list. his choice last night was the wrong choice in my view, but I think he's a townie who did it. Not scum.

[cicero]

Side note, anyone else getting an artificial argumentation vibe from Cicero and CKD?

Didnt see this coming a mile away.

Hint: look to my reasoning.

[cicero]

Well if you saw it coming you must have known there were grounds for it

There ARE grounds for it. Not in the sense of me/he being scum. But in the sense that it makes sense to suggest it. I have a big fight with CKD and change my mind. But all I can do is tell you this. I didn't need to do that with CKD if we're scum together, unless you think our third partner is Yvonne. Because, as I've said again ana again, the town was sleepwalking to an Yvonne lynch and it would have been pretty damn easy for scum-cicero to push them into it. And since CKD has spent the whole day trying to make her die, I think that theory is a bit far-fetched.

Second, the reason I'm compelled by CKD at the moment, is that he seems pretty honestly angry about a bunch of stuff. Look at Mafia 69 when I thought he was scum and look at how he reacted to me there. Separate from that, just look at his own reactions. Maybe he's just acting and is a hell of a liar, but it doesnt feel that way to me in the way he's been reacting.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote No Lynch

I'm back here now and think it's a great idea again.

We've had a bunch of great discussion now (no sleepwalking!) Lots of stuff is on the table. No one is under the radar or above suspicion and it's time to improve the town's odds. We get one more night of investigation and pay pretty much no price for it. We'll increase our %chance of hitting scum with all these being equal, but things won't be all that equal cuz of all the superpowered information we'll get in the night. Frankly, if it all goes down correctly we can up our chances of hitting scum to over 50% I think. Do eet. It's the right thing to do and a tasty way to do it. I still think one big drawback exists obviously - that scum will just need to twist one townie. I understand that. But with all the other things going for us, including info, I think it's outweighed. I don't want to say more on it, really, because

I am not down for providing information to scum..are you?

[cicero]

Cicero, do your calculations include the possibility that some of the information roles might be scum? If you do include this, would that change your conclusion?

No. It's just the same as always. Catch 'em in a lie. analyze their play and choices. What do you think?

[cicero]

I think it leaves us open to scum manipulation. What if more than one useful role is held by scum? Then, they will be able to coordinate their story. And with so few useful roles remaining, the night choices are expected to be incestuous.

More open? I already pointed out the extent to which it does and argued against it early. But How coordinated do you think their story will get? How likely is it that Adele and Yvonne are scum together do you think? Do you think it could possibly put us in a worse situation than we are now? Or would we end up essentially in either the same position or better?

Do you think CES was scummy for suggesting the move in the first place? We can all agree he's pretty damn smart, yes?

[cicero]

Assuming the scum kill overnight, we drop a pro-town suspect, reducing the field - which is good - but we also lose that pro-town player's thoughts and ideas and suspicions, and their vote. Which is bad.

Yeah, I know. I made the argument myself the first time. There is an incentive for scum to kill. Which is good. I like how there's a possible advantage to changing the state of the game for both sides. It means we're less likely to be back here with no info tomorrow. But we

do

get that player's arguments and analysis. Bolstered by the fact that we know they're town.

I think town advantages outweigh town disadvantages if we play it smart. And most importantly I think we're about to shoot into the dark.

And if the scum don't kill... or we block the scum kill and we ARE back here tomorrow, then we sort of get a do-over of last night. Not so bad when transferring powers to you comes into play.

I basically came to this conclusion when I was explaining to my newbie game why a No Lynch was a bad idea on day one, and in that case the math was inverted.

That having been said, we have narrowed our shooter possibilities for last night down to CES, DG, Fonz and

maybe

Yvonne depending on how super clever she is, but she's at least claimed to make the right move twice now. How confident does everyone feel about lynching one of those today? Can we narrow it even further? I mean, I feel pretty comfy in my opinion that Fonz is scum. But that's lynching the doc. High stakes poker.

I for one would love to see Adele correctly watch something so I know she actually received watcher powers from Yvonne. And I think Shaft.ed motivating her will make that more likely to happen AND give her motivating powers for the next night (should we survive) thereby making town even stronger - and making it harder for her to lie.

So I do think town needs to be directed at least THAT much. And we've directed DGB not to use her power.

Some other directions might prove sensible as well. I dont know yet. Need to map it out in my head and figure out the chess moves.

[cicero]

Do you think CES was scummy for suggesting the move in the first place? We can all agree he's pretty damn smart, yes?

I don't believe I said that - only that we should careful weigh all possibility, and when I say "all" I mean players smarter than myself.[/quote]

That's the process I'm trying to work through in my head, now.

[cicero]

If we do this, all should worry more about doing the best move for town than in being all surprising and shit. Cuz surprising might get you mislynched. It almost did today.

And popcorn diceroll claiming tomorrow is a must.

[cicero]

I think the watchers should have no idea about claim order until tomorrow. I think it should be decided by diceroll. The popcorn thing is just that whoever claims does the diceroll for the next person to claim. Under no circumstances should anyone be able to strategise their order placement today. Particularly since no one finds either watcher to be super obv-townie.

[cicero]

Pure dice is what I want to. The popcorn element is just who types "roll" and is pretty irrelevant.

[cicero]

Anything other than dice is something the scum can strategise around.

Only

full dice keeps the scum totally uninformed.

[cicero]

I vote pure dice, don't care how they are rolled.

[cicero]

Shrug. Factor in that you not going along with the plan makes you look scummier and is more likely to lead to your lynch. Which, if its a mislynch blows your "what's best for town" theory to timbucktu. YOU convince ME that your plan is better.

And who are the scummier looking people? When I'm scum I dont look very scummy. I look scummier when I AM town a lot of the time. Who looks scummy is crap. And since there's going to be three scum and four town it's pretty easy for them to manouever. This isnt just a regular old mass claim.

[cicero]

I will do what I feel I need to do, what I wont do is agree to anything so the mafia knows before the night.

Yeah my impression wasn't anything like this.

OK one thing I'd like to adjust. I move that we strike CES from the rolling list as he isn't likely to claim he targeted anyone and it will slow down the process come claim time.

I dont follow the wisdom of this at all. Explain more plz.

[cicero]

/nod. I was dumb and mixed up CES and CKD in my head.

[cicero]

CKD offers assertions when proofs are required.

Dice are pro-town

because

scum can't influence them.

There is no one in this game that is trustworthy enough to make a list. So the idea is a non-starter.

And I am perfectly comfortable with the idea that you and Adele could be lying scumbags. Certainly my sense of strategy and yours dont line up.

[cicero]

CES: I'm asking you for the examples about Adele. Show me how it's consistent. Back up your assertion.

There is no one in this game that I would entrust with being a listmaker at this point. It's a non-starter.

Look, dice and perfect. Scum can catch a break. But I don't see a better option in this rather unique set up.

So far players in favor of dice are:

Cicero (that's me!)
Shaft.ed
curiouskarmadog
Yvonne

Opposed
Adele
CES

Silent
DGB
Fonz (who's been V/LA most of this week)

[cicero]

The advantage I see of dice popcorn is that it gives you pretty much no way to plan. See we COULD generate a random order at the beginning of the day, but I think that is sub-optimal to generating the next person randomly *as we go along*.

I cant trust anyone enough to put them in charge of a list. And an agreed upon list gives scum planning opportunities.

Dice popcorn is goddamn hard to plan around and therefore increases the likelyhood that people have to tell the truth.

[cicero]

None taken at all DGB. That's one more person than I trust in here.

In favor of dice popcorn

Cicero (that's me!)
Shaft.ed
curiouskarmadog
Yvonne
DGB

Opposed
Adele
CES

Silent
Fonz (who's been V/LA most of this week)

[cicero]

In fairness to the opposition some earlier arguments they've made so they don't need to write them down again.

Adele
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 734#940734

I support a chainclaim tomorrow (including Fonz). Chaimclaims (popcorn?) my fave, and I've always supported their use in claims such as this. I'm okay with dice though.

she advocates the "Watchers Go Last" policy as statistically optimal in that post as well but seems more flexible than in the most recent post.

CES
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 314#941314

[cicero]

Since no one is going along with your plan, CES, you cool with ours?

(note it doesnt really matter since CES doesnt have anything to claim and the only real holdout is Adele).

[cicero]

Fonz is all over the site today but ignoring this game, which has had lots of activity and which has a controversial issue for him to weigh in on that affects him personally.

Noted.

Fonz is scum. I'd bet my left arm.

[cicero]

I'd bet your left arm too.

You bet your own damn arm, woman.

[cicero]

I want Adele and Fonz on record before the No Lynch goes through and I want people willing to lynch them for not going along with the town's claim will. Otherwise this is a useless exercise.

[cicero]

hmm. interesting.

[cicero]

Adele - if you are town it is BEST for you to go last. If you are scum, you going last is the WORST option for town. Especially because you are possibly going to be able to watch twice. It is, essentially, a high risk-high reward strategy. The inverse is true about going first.

If your play had been so good and so aggressive and so inquisitve and generally obv-townie I might be persuaded to go for it. But that simply hasn't been the case. I haven't played with you before so my meta isnt very good, but I see you as fairly suspicious.

CES is correct in saying that it is optimal for watchers to go last over a large number of possible games, but we aren't playing a large number of games. We're playing one. And we are in the unfortunate position of having both our watchers be players who have a rather low post, tentative posting style (for whatever reason) that certainly reads as scum playing defensively.

Now that, certainly, has something to do with your schedule and Yvonne's style of play. But there is enough evidence against you both that we simply cannot just let you go last. And your very useful powers are at their weakest if we let you go first.

So the least best option is to let the dice decide when you both go. As far as I'm concerned the middle is a FINE place for you to go. Because it leaves you AND someone else capable of being caught in a lie. Just not as many people.

So Is it perfect? No. Will it

definitely

catch scum? No. But it is townside's least-bad option weighing all possible evidence and options. The watchers get in the queue like everyone else and let the chips fall where they may. Believe me, I wish I could say just go last.

The only other idea I thought of requires a fair amount of trust in me (and both of us staying alive) But if I target you tonight to join my network I will get 24 hours after your choices have been submitted to talk to you. I will be unable to affect anything with those choices but I can act as a repository for the information. But the problems with that are obvious. You don't know my alignment. Scum in such a situation could win the game with a bold lie, since it's LYLO. (We're dangerously close to a "No, Spock, I'm the Real Kirk!" situation in this game).

More importantly, I don't really want to be the mafia's alibi when they accuse me of shooting you dead.

[cicero]

omg, DG.

You are so...

think it through.

Seriously.

[cicero]

No. If someone that isn't you decides there's something in what I said that's a bloody glove, I'll talk to them. But I'm not going down the rabbit hole into your wonderland. Sorry.

Here's some hints for you though: Explore the concepts of

possible outcomes

vs.

certain outcomes.

And since you're parsing text for subtle clues:

More importantly, I don't really want to be

the mafia's

alibi when

they

accuse

me

of shooting you dead.

[cicero]

You just crashed my cerebral hard disk. True, it was a TRS-80, but it was a step up from punch cards.

That was meant for that pesky cicero pantalooned fellow.

He knows

[cicero]

All results come at night, from what I understand. NORMALLY what happened to Adele wouldn't occur because I have 24 hours after all night choices are resolved to talk to my newly networked buddy. But in this case, there was no reason to give me that 24 hours so he was able to send out PMs and then start day.

[cicero]

For the questions being posed to me: Right and Right.

[cicero]

@Shafted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:31 pm

[cicero]

Networking is tricky. Shaft.ed and I don't trust each other. And he smells of peyote and loose women.

[cicero]

doesnt it hit the same problem that gets hit if I target someone else and they tell me who they targetted? If Shaft.ed is scum, I undermine the randomness of the claim order. Just as, if I am scum, Adele telling me her target(s) undermines the random claim order. Yes. No?

Also Adele wouldn't know why her watching failed so as to tell me, because she didn't know you did it. Her watching could have failed because of you or because of Dripping Goofball. I knew it was you because my networking, like your jailing, is goofball proof.

[cicero]

Chiding by the mod? Tsk. Bad form.

[cicero]

I agree. No one discuss any results until after.

[cicero]

I meant: No one confirm anyone's night action.

[cicero]

Sorry to slow you folks down. Normally my job is at my desk. Today I was in a meeting all morning. Good meeting though. Things went well. Thanks for askin'.

I targetted The Fonz to join my network.

1.) Adele
2.) DrippingGoofball
3.) shaft.ed

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[cicero]

Shaft.ed goes next.

[cicero]

First: Neener Neener, Yvonne was town, bitches.

Now, Whoever did that kill, CKD or scum: Fun gambit. Nicely done. Town is at the disadvantage of having to pick right. Worst case scenario for scum is they lose a player. I'll need to think a bit before I pick a side.

We should note that Adele is telling the truth about Shaft.ed. Or at least Shaft.ed told me the same thing in the 24 hours before the game opened, based on "trusting me the most". I had told him he should target Adele but he deemed it too obvious a choice and went with Yvonne. I need to think through and decide if telling me that could be part of a scum gambit.

As for my night choice, I picked Fonz last night purely randomly. Good old dice roll. And I let Shaft.ed know it at the time, because I picked the diceroll through PM with him. Shaft.ed can attest that Fonz was chosen at random, strictly for reasons of alibi.

Why random? Because the more I thought about all the other little plans I had for ways to use my role, the more they seemed suspicious or prone to WIFOM. I also couldn't guess which person the scum would kill, and I couldn't guess who was scum. Obviously I feared (a) accidentally targetting the dead person; (b) being seen as being in cahoots. So I did that which I thought was most likely to give me an alibi.

Also, I tried to wait as long as possible before doing it, so as to try to ensure that the scum wouldnt change their night choices based on it. But I can't be sure that that didn't occur. I wasnt sure how much it would change anyway, since I didnt really expect that anyone would give me their night choices (even though Shaft.ed did). But it does raise the possibility that scum knew I didnt choose Yvonne and therefore that Yvonne didnt tell me her night choices. Not sure that this matters much which was why I felt ok about doing it. It also meant scum couldn't accuse me of being somewhere I wasn't, because two other players knew where I was.

Best move I could think of. Hope y'all don't think it was a screw up.

[cicero]

How about it's this simple:

Adele is scum and it's win-win for scum. They target and kill one watcher. The other, going last, accuses CKD who a lot of people already think is scum from yesterday's push. Yvonne coming up town further makes him look bad. Scum don't much care which way today's lynch goes because they're more than happy getting rid of Peter Petrelli even if s/he's on their team. There will be no more investigative roles in the game. Adele wont have to operate against her own interest and accidentally get caught in a lie. The other two can continue to play a more normal game of mafia.

Thoughts?

[cicero]

cic I had already targeted Yvonne before receiving your advice.

That's cool. I'm just sharing all the info. I've tended to think of you as town but I can't rule anything out, obviously.

[cicero]

And on the other hand we had two nights where CKD made the wrong choice. Last night his only play was Dripping Goofball, because Dripping Goofball is a perfect killing machine who needs to be put in jail. But there was always the chance that DGB might have tried to use her power. If jailed she would have gotten a message that says her powers failed. If she didnt get that message we'd know CKD was in the wrong spot. Instead, CKD, again, under the principle of "I'm so sneaky" and "dont tell me what to do motherfuckers" failed to give himself an alibi and also left out the one player who could operate with impunity. So, the real reason might just be that the guy's scum.

[cicero]

Fine but that doesnt really answer my 1482.

I'm still inclined to vote CKD. If he comes up town it's his own fault for terrible night choices. If he's scum and I vote to lynch the watcher that fingered him I'll feel like a fucking idiot.

Still thinking though.

[cicero]

also there is another theory that has been presented..we are scum together.

I think we can rule that little scenario out at least.

DGB can be watched

She can?

terrible night choices?

Yeah. If you're town, you're having a hard time with these powers. The only reason to target CES was to stop a nightkill from happening. Town

wanted

a nightkill to happen. Targetting DGB was the only move you had last night. You have a big problem with your "don't tell me what to do" button. The question is whether it's a function of your personality, or if it's a play as scum. Basically, you picked the choice that wouldnt end up contradicting your alibi, although since DGB had already said she wasnt going to target anyone it's not as big a deal. But yeah -- how is it townie to leave the untrackable killing machine unjailed exactly? You're too smart for these choices, which leads me to believe you to be scum.

[cicero]

and note I didn't use tracker in the technical sense.

But again, and this is important, DGB

CAN

be watched??

[cicero]

Adele, thanks. She

can

be watched killing. Good to know. I hadnt really grasped that.

But she can also target the victim of a kill and thereby stop doc protection.

And I know we've been over this before but if she targeted Yvonne last night with her power (this is hypothetical not a scenario I think happened) you would or would not have been able to see who performed the kill?

[cicero]

Cicero, I targetted CES for a couple reasons, one I thought because of his vote on me yesterday he could be scum, thus trying to stop a kill or that the scum wouldnt think i would target him, thus stopping a kill...I now think mostly likely CES is town, because a scum group with CES in it would have utilized him last night to make the kill.

We didnt much care about wanting to stop a kill, now did we CKD? What we

wanted

was to

watch

the kill. Something which DGB is an

impediment

to. You know I like you, CKD, but you suck beans as a jailkeeper.

Also Cicero, your networking..can shafted and fonz talk to each other, or can they only talk to you?

The messages would have to go through me. They cannot directly speak to one another.

[cicero]

Yes. I thought I answered that before. Adele is her own worst enemy as a watcher. You couldnt know she was scum. Her odds were too slim and her chances of being the killer too low.

Basically your argument on that is as follows:

Husband: I bet our life savings on a 10:1 odds at the horse track honey
Wife: You did what? You bastard.
Husband: Shut up. I won.

Winning is not a good argument for betting the lifesavings on a 10 to 1 at the track. Capiche?

[cicero]

No. The only person you should have jailed is DGB and Gorgon (the hider), because I can create an alibi for myself each and every night. Sorry if that's no fun for you. But look at all the confusion you've sewn.

[cicero]

This is exactly my problem with you. You consistently argue that if something is the obvious thing to do that's enough of a reason not to do it. That's stupid. Sometimes it is obvious for good reason. This is one of those cases.

and CKD

currently

I have the same opinion I had just a little while ago. Undecided with a leaning towards wanting to vote Adele because this feels like it could be a frame up and because your play feels more brazen and angry while hers feels more careful, but at the same time feeling like if I do that and you are indeed the scum, and all these obvious signs were there I may just have to go punch myself in the face with a piece of glass.

I have not yet sorted out all the strands of WIFOM you two are throwing at each other. Hence the no voting yet.

Are you going to ask me that stupid question every five minutes until we lynch someone?

[cicero]

It isn't an end game conversation. It's a why should I trust CKD conversation. Everyone in here should be doing what they can to give themselves an alibi or a reason to view them as town. You have not. You targetted Gorgon. That was good and netted us a big result. Well done. But at that point in the game everyone had an incentive to find and kill Sylar. Scum and town alike. Since that time your insistence on doing the unexpected has been an impediment to town. You arent really seeing the big picture.

Unless you are absolutely sure DGB is town, how can you possibly justify letting her roam free as a member of the town? Two nights in a row you've articulated watcher impeding choices. You jail one watcher. Then you refuse to target the watcher proof (or maybe watcher proof, apparently you are no clearer on the mechanism than I am) player, which is quite obviously the perfect use for your power. So it leaves me asking why I should believe CKD is town and the only reason I can come up with is that he sounds insulted when I call him scum, and I dont know you well enough to know how well you feign indignation. Yet I'm supposed to follow your WIFOM and lynch the watcher on the word of you who has given me no good reason to trust your word.

Do you see my problem? If I vote for you and town loses it's a reasonable decision. If I vote for Adele and I'm wrong, I look like a fucking idiot. So THAT is the power you've given to scum, if you aren't scum.

[cicero]

If I didn't watch Yvonne, I wouldn't know who targeted her. I'd have to make them up.

Only partially true. If you and Shaft.ed were scum together, obviously you would know who he targetted. Scum will, of course, have shared their night choices with each other.

My guess is that if you were scum and you were going last you would have watched a town player and given the honest results. But since you got to go last you got an opportunity to say that CKD was at the scene of the crime. It's much more powerful than just confirming that Shaft.ed was there because... hmmm...

CKD, if Adele is scum, why shouldnt she just say that she saw Shaft.ed target Yvonne? I assume we must assume that if Adele is scum, Shaft.ed must be scum as well? Yes? Why not just pin it on Shaft.ed?

[cicero]

so if I am scum are you saying that DGB must be scum too?

No. I'm saying a townie wouldnt know DGBs alignment and would lock her up in order to avoid sewing seeds of confusion. Scum would leave her free precisely to sew seeds of confusion and defend his bad choices by arguing that he was trying to outsmart the scum. If you are scum, you still would have been better served jailing DGB because it was the townie move. But someone has to be free to kill out of the scum team. And jailing DGB risked having DGB try to use her power and thereby being able to confirm or deny your whereabouts.

If so, why did I submit the kill when it would have benefited the scum more for me to jail someone?

If DGB can be seen killing someone, why is it an issue if she is "roams free"? We have to wait for the MOd clarification on this.

No one was clear on that. We've been acting under the impression that she could perform an undetected kill or aid in the commission of an undetected kill. If you were unsure of that the right move was to jail her.

Again, would I be any more confirmable if I targetted DGB? If I jailed DGB and Adele again said I killed Ynonne, would that change anything?

No, because we had already gotten DGB to agree not to use her powers. But again you deftly shift the issue. A townie would be more concerned with what DGB could do to impede the watchers or doc if allowed to run free. If she's scum, she can sidle up next to the victim and block doc protection and (we think) impede watchers. Why are you so constantly cool with letting that power roam free?

[cicero]

But, again, if he were co-scum, he'd be better having an alibi elsewhere. Once more, the Adele=scum theory seems implausible to me (though I must acknowledge I'm somewhat biased)

Well - one of you would need to do the actual kill and at the same time you need to have your watcher story straight. So maybe you watch Shaft.ed do the kill and keep an eye for anyone else targetting Yvonne?