Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[The Fonz]

No underscore, Dammit!

A couple of Q's: what would a tracking result on Oman look like?
If JDodge were scum, and targetted someone watched by Yvonne for a nightkill, would that show up, or not? Because the watcher power wouldn't actually be targetted at him, but it is a power ability.
What powers fall into category six? I'm assuming investigations, what else?


I feel willing to lynch Oman today. I'm also rather concerned about I dislike ZONEACE's assertion that it should be TSQ or no-one, since I feel Zoneace is ignoring the point that certain roles are more valuable in the hands of scum than town, which would actually make them better 'blind lynches' than Shea. Not that I am in any way supporting a blind lynch, since I feel there is a decent case on a couple of people. The Zoneace/Shea pissing match is annoying, but not lynchworthy in either case.


On Oman:

I find very scummy the way he claims to be being wagonned solely on his role. That's a strawman.

Also, it strikes me that this is not the usual 'Oman being wagonned for his playstyle' occurrence. I've seen a lot of town Oman, and he seems to be acting notably different here. I find it a lot harder to see a pro-town rationale for his actions than I usually do.

THe contradiction between seemingly being very keen on passing his own powers to Adele, then cautioning against giving her investigative powers, is noteworthy.

HATE this.

I will lie through my teeth if i feel it gives me a better chance at winning this game.

The only way that is true is if you're scum.

He lists an inactive on his 'willing to lynch' list, that sets all my alarms ringing. Shaft.ed's 373 sets this out perfectly.

I don't like his move onto ZA, which seems like the easy counterwagon to his own.
_____________________________________________________
On CKD:

Dislike 318. Seems like an attempt to allege scumminess on the basis of semantic imprecision.

Don't like the way he seems to make out that taking role into account is a bad idea. The 'don't like people telling me what to do' argument doesn't fly, because arguing for or against any course of action pretty much requires you to advise the other players in the game to support the same thing.

I am pretty sure our scum (in this game) are quietly sitting back

This is often an argument forwarded by scum when their own buddies are very much not sitting back, but the centre of attention. I know I've done it.

___________________________________
On tonight's actions:

I broadly agree with the have 'Nathan target me, or an investigative role, and have that role target Peter' plan. An investigative role on a scum is actually a liability for that player, as Adele's explained pretty well. If y'all are really worried about that, though, have Nathan target me. There is absolutely no use to a doc power on a scum- if Adele is Sylar, she can't self-protect anyway, and if she's mafia, well, it's not like mafia are going to target other mafia for their NK.

I'd like to ask that Yvonne seriously consider targetting me tonight. As I can't use my powers if killed, and there's no way of protecting me without rendering my powers useless, whilst ANYONE else targetted could be under my protection, I'm a very likely mafia kill tonight, all else being equal. If I'm being watched, then the mafia has the choice of leaving me alive or giving up one of their number to remove me. (Worst case scenario is Yvonne is scum, but even then, if I die, she is forced to either name the actual culprit, or die herself).

Also, as a last note, I hate the suggestion that cops should claim vanilla in other games to avoid NK. That's precisely the situation where I think it's most anti-town, and LAL is most appropriate. But this is who Shea is, so I guess I have to shrug my shoulders.

[The Fonz]

Also, can we have a vote count?

[The Fonz]

Fonz I agree with your night action ideas as "best theoretical course of action" but as I've said before something that choreographed is to the town's disadvantage. If the scum know what we're doing they can work around it.
.

That's why I said 'I'd like you to strongly consider' rather than 'I think you should.'

[The Fonz]

Oh yeah, in my 510, the first sentence of the second paragraph should read 'I'm willing to lynch Oman today, I also have substantial, though lesser, concerns about CKD.' I didn't just put in an analysis of CKD for poops and giggles.

[The Fonz]

fonz, where did I say I was taking the role completely out? I just dont want actions BASED solely on one's role.

I dont care who has what role, if someone is scummy, we lynch them, no one gets a pass.

[The Fonz]

Also, pretty much no-one (except ZONEACE) is actually advocating acting solely on role, (mathcam did, but only as an alternative to the RVS, and anyone who comes up with a way to avoid that gets townie brownies off me). Folks are merely pointing out that someone with a town-leaning role would have to be scummier than a player with a scum-leaning role to justify a day one lynch. That's allowing a people's roles to play some part in the process, whilst keeping scumminess as the n01 criterion.

[The Fonz]

Does WHAT mean to disagree with that statement?

[The Fonz]

Unsure of where I stand with shaft.ed now. He's dropped a lot of the horrible, crappy, arguments on me that he had early on.

I actually thought he made a lot of sense, and seemed substantially pro-town in those exchanges. Make of that what you wiil.

The only way that is true is if you're scum.

Lieing as a townie can help the town. Its true, unfortunatly

I'm sure there are some very specific cases where it could. Like where you have a lover pair, and one is NK-immune, it's better for the non-NK immune one to claim to be the NK-immune one. But such cases are very rare, and, in

virtually every circumstance

I have ever seen, townies who think they can benefit the town by lying actually harm it. This game has a setup that makes lying as town even less likely to be helpful than usual.

He lists an inactive on his 'willing to lynch' list, that sets all my alarms ringing. Shaft.ed's 373 sets this out perfectly.

I said in my next post that a replacement would suffice.

I'm sure you did, when called out on the matter. Doesn't make it look like any less of an attempt to deflect, though.

I don't like his move onto ZA, which seems like the easy counterwagon to his own.

I have not moved onto him, I merely wanted to be involved in the meta discussion. You've overstated my postition.

Right, so you're not currently voting him then? Oh, wait, you are.

[The Fonz]

I agree with the last part, disagree fervently with the first part, and would ask 'how scummy?' of the middle. I DO care what roles people have, but not to such an extent that I would oppose the lynch of someone outstandingly scummy just due to their role. This isn't a dichotomy- my point is precisely is that there is room for players to take other players' roles into account whilst still retaining scumminess as the primary criterion for assessing lynch candidates- without giving anyone a 'free pass.'

[The Fonz]

I find your play to be pro-town while ZONACE's is anti-town, but I've already decided I'm giving a pass to the investigative roles regardless of alignment for D1

unless they do something that is incredibly scummy today.

Emphasis mine. shaft.ed's post left open the possibility of lynching an investigator if they were particularly scummy.

[The Fonz]

If this master plan is a reason for you not to be lynched today

I never said that, stop putting words into my mouth.

Then why mention it? If it working depends on no-one knowing what it is, and we're not supposed to use it as a reason not to lynch you, why mention it in the first place?

[The Fonz]

I want to lynch Oman - and not because I think he's scum. He's probably town. - like others it is because his bus driver power would be simply too useful to Sylar.

Why specifically Sylar? I don't really like this post. It's like 'I don't buy the case against him, but I want him dead anyway.' There is no role in the game that is so destructive in the hands of scum that it warrants killing a player you find town solely to get rid of it.

Could you explain

why

you think he's town?

[The Fonz]

I thought he was probably town on page 11. Why? Because he told me. All the games I'm in where people say they are town out loud like that, they end up being town.

You're

seriously

using that as an argument? Really?

On scumtells alone, he's scum. But remember I have an anti Day one scumtell bias that informs my writing.

So, you think that of everyone he's dropped the biggest scumtells, but you still don't think he's likely to be scum. I suggest you revise your definition of 'scumtell.'

He feels scummy to me now but day one feelings of scumminess are generally worth jack and shit. On a balance of odds alone with behavior removed he is "probably" town.

This is true of every player on day one of evey mafia game, ever. That reads like an argument for no-lynch to me.

ZOneace also feels scummy in his answers. But would I be surprised if he turned up town? Not for a second. Several other players fill the same slot for me. Towniness !=townie. Scumminess !=scum. Espectially on day one.

It's very hard to be so scummy on day one that an observer would be surprised to see them turn up town. Scumminess =/= scum, but does equal 'more likely to be scum.' That's pretty much the definition of it- behavior that's more likely than average to be exhibited by scum.

But I don't really care if people don't like my post. Everyone else can run around justifying reasons to vote Oman for being scummy - which he is after a full reread - but the way I see it is this. It's pure tactice. Sylar has the ability to kill a player, cut off their head and then own their power.

Which is true whoever Sylar is.

If Oman is already Sylar we're already in trouble. If Sylar kills Oman he'll take the Bus Driver power and then we wont be able to trust in doc protection from you, or any watcher or tracker results.

Doc protection doesn't protect from Sylar anyway. Doc protection doesn't work if I die, anyway. Yvonne can watch me (again- she doesn't have to, but it's the percentage play), and if anyone tries to mess with my power they die, simple as. If Oman

is

Sylar, even if is Yvonne is scum, she's got a reason to out him. And Sylar, who can't be tracked to a kill, would be foolish to try to steal my doc abilities- it's one of the few ways (s)he could get caught.

Lord knows what other mischief I haven't thought of yet. If Oman is mafia we already have that as a problem, of course, but the odds are that each of us, looked at in isolation, is town. In short Shaft.ed is the man.

I can actually think of more mafia uses for a bus driver than SK ones, hence I find it odd that you are concerned about Oman being Sylar specifically.

I know the whole adage about "I lynch scummy people. Period." But I'm here to win the game. For town.

Lynching people you think are scum is obviously the best way to win the game, therefore those positions are not contradictory.

And in my estimation that will be best served by the ability of each player to trust that the information the mod has given them with respect to their power is true. As long as the Bus Driver power is floating around that will be impossible.

Yes, the bus driver power can be useful in the hands of scum. No, this is not sufficient to lynch someone you think is town.

2) because, if we can't trust Oman, we can't trust adele (we can't trust you, we can't trust me). Why should i give my power to somoene night 1 that i have no reason to trust yet? quote]

This has been explained enough times. An investigative or protective role in the hands of scum is actually to that scum's detriment, since the scum either has to use it (which prohibits that particular individual from killing) or lie and make up a result/protection, which can lead to that scum being outed.

[The Fonz]

Fonz - you are not reading my post correctly. I'm not concerned about Oman BEING Sylar. There is a 1/12 chance of that. I'm concerned about Oman being KILLED by Sylar and therefore becoming the bus driver. How can you keep missing that point? You seem to have it in your head that I think Oman is already Sylar. Get that out of your head and re-read.

Because you never actually said that. Simple as. What you said was 'that power to me is too useful to Sylar.' Which made me think you were arguing 'We can't take the risk of Oman being Sylar.' I would dispute that bus driver is necessarily hugely destabilising in the hands of an SK.

Basically- I accept that his power is more useful to scum than town. I was arguing the admissability of that kind of consideration with CKD, if you recall.

Obviously our watcher can watch Oman but you are busy jumping up and down yelling at her to watch you instead

Hardly jumping up and down, I'm just asking Yvonne to consider it. Fear of the watcher is the only thing which could possibly keep me alive overnight.

and there is also the idea of her giving her power to Adele. So on some night Sylar can come in and take that power.

Uh, yeah, but the investigation power isn't that useful to Sylar. The idea was whoever gets a second shot from Nathan *considers* using it on Peter.

[The Fonz]

Yes, cicero has explained that. But I still don't think 'we can't let Sylar get his hands on that ability' is a good argument, since bus driver isn't particularly useful to a player who can't be tracked to a kill, and doesn't have buddies.

Put it this way- if I were Sylar, and I'd somehow been able to know this prior to choosing a role, bus driver would be like my fifth choice.

[The Fonz]

who can't be tracked to a kill

I don't think I've noticed that part.

Matt Parkman - Tracker (ZONEACE)
You can read minds. Well, you can hear thoughts - bits of them, fractured and incomprehensible. You can't get at all the details but you can certainly get something. Each night you can target a player, and you should be able to at least make out who, if anyone, they are targetting that night.

Note - if you target Sylar, you will get there too late to pick up anything about the kill,

and only hear about who, if anyone, he targetted with his regular ability.

I could see him using it, though, in ways you havent considered. Like using a tracker result to cast suspicion on someone who is pressuring him.

He'd have to know who scum is to pull that off, though. And if you know who scum is, why not just say so and pocket the townie points for good scumhunting?

[The Fonz]

No. He just has to create any situation where someone earnestly accuses someone else of being incorrect.

Which, in order to do, he has to hope that the tracker would have gotten an incriminating result. If an incorrect result is not incriminating, but obviously incorrect (like, say, me doing nothing) all it does is prove that the bus driver power has been used. Which would clear at least one of those involved of being Sylar.

[The Fonz]

Any way, you've convinced me that I overstated the fears of Sylar taking on that power since he's already untrackable and doc proof and the jailkeeper is unaffected. Now, how about if Oman is mafia? Is there any useful application any one can see for keeping that power in the game from a townside perspective?

Well, apparently Oman has this big secret plan. But basically, I agree that his power is more use to the scum than the town. In fact, were we not to lynch him, I'd suggest that it's in the town's interest not to use it right now. Bus driver CAN be a very useful town ability- see Glork's use of it in Scrubs smalltown for exactly why. But it's most useful in late-game situations. Early on, it just confuses things- and if Oman uses it and dies on the same night, that's really messed up.

[The Fonz]

This bus driver power is not actually a bus driver, since it can't redirect kills, which is the main benefit of a town bus driver (since a bus driver could logically switch

anyone

, the scum can never kill without risking it being switched to one of their own).

It's hard to see the town application. If scum lie, there's the possibility of catching 'em out, i spose. But there's a ton of wifom attached to anything the driver could do.

[The Fonz]

1. I don't know anything about the flavour
2. The lack of a second kill implies that the jailed player was either designated killer, or designated kill target. Gorgon's power seems to me to make killer the more likely option- though not certain.
3. I would prefer, for I-would-think obvious reasons, to not reveal my doc protect target, though it's fairly obvious it wasn't ZA (assuming 'shot' means mafia kill. @ Adele: did you distinguish between groupscum and SK kills in the previous smalltowns?)

[The Fonz]

OK, I must have missed that.

[The Fonz]

I joined this game during night, forgot about it. I only joined to push Adele over the edge of insanity, but I never played a "smalltown" game before, I hardly even play open games.

I targetted Gorgon. I looked at the list, and the roles, and I picked him because...

...it would make Gorgon immune to being targeted by Powers for the night (which he already is on account of his role) and incapable of using his own Power (which is to hide).

Hmmm. Interesting. Since nightkills aren't powers, the only possible effect of using that power on Gorgon would be to make him nightkillable by someone else even if he'd tried to phase out. I really can't think of a pro-town reason to do that.

Then again, since DGB can't be tracked, and the mafia killed someone else (hence DGB can't have done it in order to allow a buddy to kill Gorgon) one wonders why the hell a scum Goof would

admit

to that.

Could Goof be Sylar? A Goof-sylar could dampen Gorgon's ability to hide, and kill him the same night.

[The Fonz]

Here's what we know.

The Sylar kill was either of Gorgon, or by Gorgon. CKD's ability is the only one which can prevent a Sylar kill, so we know that CKD must have used it. He could have lied about who he used it

on

, though that's extremely risky so I'd say it's overwhelmingly likely he's telling the truth about last night.

So:


Those we can prove used their abilities:

cicero
Yvonne
shaft.ed
CKD

He who cannot have committed the mafia kill:

Gorgon

That means the mafia killer is amongst this group:

(me)
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ

[The Fonz]

In other news:

I came in today too late to make this argument in time, but it's not clear to me that Adele should reveal what powers she has. If she's town and doesn't get any, than all the better for us when the mafia, fearing she has super powers, goes and kills her instead of one of our power roles. If she's town and gets powers, why not leave it to the mafia's imagination which ones, at least until she can reveal them simultaneously with some incriminating information?

Cam

Adele has already revealed that she knew herself to have been targetted by Yvonne. Therefore, she has claimed her power.

[The Fonz]

It's been Goofballed.

[The Fonz]

I'd love to say more. I havent thought of anything more to say. How about this: The Gorgon lynch worries me just because that role is something Sylar might want.

It is true that Gorgon's ability is the one Sylar is the most likely to covet. However, targetting Gorgon was also the kill most likely to fail.

It just occurred to me that CKD targetting Gorgon for a NK, and then if it failed, claiming to have jailed him, is possibly the optimum course of action given that combination of role and alignment. I'm not sure it's

likely

- but it's probably what I'd have done in that precise situation. Since Gorgon being Sylar, and *someone else* being Sylar and having been foiled by the jailing, seem to be more obvious reasons for that combination of events.

Of course, the reason those two seem more likely is probably because they are. Grrrr. The thing that I think most conclusive is Gorgon's disappearance in reaction to these revelations.

Actually, @Gorgon: It would probably be useful, if you genuinely are pro-town, to reveal whether or not you phased out. Since a 'no' rules out that explanation above.

[The Fonz]

Ed: But don't do it unless lynch is imminent, obv.

[The Fonz]

I don't see the need, frankly Cic. If Yvonne's scum, she knows who was killed anyway and can avoid saying anything self-incriminating. The only person who could catch her in a lie is Adele, and vice versa. Those two should go last. As before, I'd prefer not to claim at all unless someone has a compelling reason why i should do so.

[The Fonz]

CKD... if a second person agrees with you, I'll do as you ask. I worry that revealing my protections might give the scum ideas about who they can get away with targetting.

[The Fonz]

I think our best bet in this game is for everyone to claim everything. It helps to ferret out the lies.

True, but how exactly could I be caught in a lie, if i were scum? I can't be tracked, because the tracker died night one. If a watcher claims to have seen me visiting a dead player, then who i claim to have visited doesn't matter. Either I'm scum, or the player claiming the result is. If no-one else has any information on what i did, then it can't help catch anyone in a lie when I reveal my protections, but it might help scum figure out my rationale for who I protect.

I am confused by why the investigative roles remain alive, as well as the doctor. Maybe it is WIFOM to the next level but it seems odd that scum targetted the one shot suicide vigilante and not the doctor. This and Fonz's reticense to claim his protects puts him higher on my possible scum list.

Not really. Precisely because the doctor role is a desirable one for scum to remove from the game, it's also a likely one to be watched. Precisely because watchers are a desirable role for scum to remove from the game, they are likely to be doc-protected.

[The Fonz]

Since Yvonne is refusing to go, I will go and explain.

I did target Adele.

Yesterday:

I used my ability on Gorgon (confirmed for sure)
DGB said he targeted Gorgon (no way to cofirm)
Cicero targeted Shafted (shafted confirmed it)
Shafted targeted Yvonne (Yvonne confirmed it)
Fonz did not provide info.
Adele did nothing
Shea did nothing
Yvonne targeted shafted and Adele (there is no way to confirm this, she declared last)

A mafia kill was submitted so it could be Adele, Shea, Fonz, or DGB.

I had this train of thought yesterday, but Adele pointed out that being 'confirmed' by one other player doesn't confirm anything, since any two players could conceivably be scum together.

[The Fonz]

Why would it be compromised, Cic?

Think who has left to claim. Bear in mind, the only person who has to lie is the scum who performed the kill. Either Yvonne will claim to have seen the killer, or not.

DGB's power shouldn't really be used, so if she's seen visiting a corpse, I don't think I'd have the slightest qualm about lynching her.
Shea doesn't have a power, so if he was out he killed, no arguments.
Mathcam would be a ridiculous choice for shaft.ed to target, so again, if Yvonne saw him going there, he's dead.
The present consensus seems to be that I not claim at all.
What Adele claims to have attempted is irrelevant. We know she was neither killer nor target.

So, what exactly is it that you would expect to compromise Yvonne's information?

[The Fonz]

I'm the only other person left to claim. It's really not that important the order of the claims unless Yvonne thinks I'm scum that submitted the kill.

Well, I would claim (in general) if it resulted in catching one of the watchers in a lie, which is possible. If Yvonne is scum, she has to make sure she doesn't claim to have seen no-one visiting the player I protected.

[The Fonz]

If we were scum together, I could have told her who i was protecting overnight, couldn't I!

[The Fonz]

Amazing 180 from some of you. I thought we all agreed that the watchers would go last since they could catch the most amount of potential liars (and also each other if they lie) in a hypothethical situation, but apparently I thought wrong. In the first place, those of you who didn't even agree with watchers going last, you should have voiced out yesterday, not make a big fuss the following day. Also, my reluctance to have the scum make safe claims easily makes me scummy?

Adele suggested watchers go last. There wasn't a formal claim order or anything, people just volunteered to claim until there was only you left. There was never this consensus that watchers should always go last that you claim.

The point you're either missing, or wilfully ignoring here, is no-one has a problem with watchers going last per se, so they were quite happy to acquiesce in it yesterday. The problem is with the

same person

going last all the time, since whoever goes last can tailor their claims to fit with what everyone else has said. You do not have a monopoly on catching people in lies, and it is very antitown to try to make out that the town should be deprived of the opportunity to catch

you

in one in perpetuity.

Claim in next post, or I'm voting you.

[The Fonz]

Bah, Ninja'd.

[The Fonz]

She already claimed. Ninja session ongoing.

She targetted Fonz and says no one targetted you.

And my Ninja'd post was subsequently ninja'd, which is quite amusing in a sad way.

Shaft.ed?

[The Fonz]

I targeted Adele last night hence my annoyance at CKD for jailing her.

I suspected as such, since I knew you didn't target me, and Yvonne only announced one action.

[The Fonz]

We could have had three watcher results. or a watcher and two trackers (remember we don't know if Adele can track as well as watch because we dont know who Zoneace targetted.)

No, we do. Killing takes precedence over tracking.

[The Fonz]

Yvonne, why did you target the Fonz?

One of the likely NK targets to me. But seeing as the doc is still alive after two nights makes me a little suspicious of Fonz himself.

Do you really think it that unlikely that the scum were afraid of me being watched, and therefore went for a less obvious target? Especially since you claim to have

actually done so

. The same applies to you or Adele equally as much as it does to me- why did the scum not get rid of the remaining investigative roles? The exact same arguments apply on both sides in this case.

[The Fonz]

she targeted shea in the event she needed an alibi, but scummy imo but better than blocking a useful role.

Not really. Doesn't do anyone any harm, and helping narrow down the pool of potential killers. Of course, since DGB claimed last, we can't assume she actually did it, but then, it doesn't make a lot of difference anyway.

Only downside i could see would be if Shea had also been both doc-protected and targetted for nightkill, but that's a pretty unlikely set of events.

[The Fonz]

I haven't seen any scumminess from you and I don't think anyone has pointed out anything about you either. You're basically clean and you're still alive with a rather helpful role if pro-town. You can't blame me for being a little suspicious about that.

So... you're suspicious of me because I'm

not scummy?

That's actually quite funny.

[The Fonz]

We can draw no conclusions about his alignment from him still breathing.

Cicero in 'breathing is not a scumtell' shocker.

[The Fonz]

This is a complete divergence from the game, but if I may:

There was a gameshow (comedy panel show) on British TV a few years ago called 'If I ruled the world' which had a political theme, and one of the rounds was called 'I couldn't disagree more...' where the contestants (spoof politicians) had to disagree with anything the opponent said, however reasonable (stuff like 'the Pope is Catholic' and 'The Queen should not pose naked in Playboy'). That little exchange reminded me of it. Good times.

[The Fonz]

again, answer the question...if a kill had not gone through last night, would I still be "scummy"? If I had targetted Yvonne last night..would I still be scummy? If so, why, because arent both Adele and Yvonne watchers?

But the problem with this is, the fact that a kill did go through changes the situation completely. If there was a strong chance you were responsible for blocking the mafia kill one way or another, that's a considerable piece of evidence in your favour.

Also, a lack of kill last night would not be conclusive in the way that the lack of a scum kill was- since I couldn't protect from the SK kill, we knew that it was definitely your power (or Gorgon's) that caused the lack of kill. Therefore, the killer had to be Gorgon or targetted Gorgon. That, combined with the fact that Gorgon's own ability made him an unlikely NK target made it overwhelmingly likely that he was the SK. Whereas a mafia kill could also be docblocked, nor would I be willing to assume, even if Adele were jailed, that she were killer and not target.

I dont like how people are suggesting I dont use my ability.

The problem here is that no-one suggested that. It was suggested that locking up watcher, motivator or doc would be scummy- locking up DGB, TSQ, or Cicero would have been strictly preferable to doing nothing.

How does targetting Gorgon help mafia? It doesn't, but it doesn't hurt, and anything anyone does that obviously helps mafia draws attention to said player and makes their lynch more likely. Given that you didn't kill, I don't see any reason for scum CKD

not

to jail Gorgon.

My most important question here, is this. You've stated earlier that your criterion for jailing someone was that they looked scummy. So Adele looked scummy. Why have you not at any point in the game raised any point against her?

During this game you've voted or FOSed mathcam, DAS (me), Zoneace, Gorgon (on day one and after you jailed him) shaft.ed, and today Yvonne.

I want to know WHY you thought Adele was scummy enough to warrant jailing and taking away the opportunity to catch scum if she's town, and why if you felt she was scummy you didn't mention this.

Do you honestly think that one of the watchers would have targeted Mathcam? I doubt Adele's being locked up had any effect outside of possibly confirming people's targets and me passing on my role to her, which is not incredibly high priority.

This is, erm, disturbing. The notion that locking up Adele

did not cause the town harm

is not the same as the notion that it

could not have caused the town harm.

Imagine the situation where I didn't doc protect anyone or CKD jailed me, and say TSQ died.

A reason I don't think CKD is scum. If he were, the scum would know that Adele was locked up. They could have attempted a kill on Yvonne with only the risk of Doc protection and no risk of being caught. This seems like a good gambit to me. Only breaks down if Yvonne and CKD are scum, but then Fonz would be dead in that case not Mathcam. Therefore Yvonne and CKD are definitely not scumbuddies.

So, the most logical candidate to be watched dies, with the jailor locking up one watcher and the other conveniently looking the other way at the time. I'd say that would draw suspicion pretty heavily onto the pair of them, no?

Can DGB be watched? I know she can't be targeted but if performing a NK she can be watched right?

Yes, we got this confirmed D1 relating to JDodge.

[The Fonz]

I'm not sure I understand what's going on, could someone tell me where precisely I've been coaching Yvonne?

[The Fonz]

Question for you, after my explanation of why I did what I did you post 899, but did not mention that the action was scummy at all. Why do you do it now when it is now in fashion to do so?

During mass claiming of roles or actions, I prefer to wait until all are in before commenting on the possible implications of any. You may note that, until all the claims are in, my discussion is limited to a) factual issues (as noted in 899) and trying to get a claim out of Yvonne. No-one really comments on the scumminess or otherwise of anyone's claim until Cicero's 949.

Also, frankly, I find your defence as in need of scrutiny as the action itself.

Let's look at your arguments:

If a kill hadnt gone through last night, would it have been "the scummiest move thus far?"...I think you need to think about that statement.

I've already explained why this is a horrible argument, and every time I see it, my gut reacts the same way. If you are scum, you know full well there's no possibility your action was going to prevent a scumkill.

After yesterday I was feeling that Yvonne was acting quite suspicious, but if I was wrong and targeted her, we would be wasting some valuable information.

How does that not apply equally to Adele?

Any reason I provide here is walking further down the WIFOM territory. But you really cant see why targeting anyone else Day 1 would have been better for mafia if I was mafia?

Still waiting for an explanation of why Gorgon was an uniquely bad mafia killchoice.


Then you try the mathematical 'probabilities' argument, pointing out how if you're town and die, it's game over. I dislike this because a mislynch is likely game over anyway. We'd need to lynch correctly three times in a row whilst somehow preventing nightkills on three occasions. And on each evening, the 'only i can prevent a scumkill' argument applies, so if we're to keep you alive on the basis of that argument, we'd have to commit to you living to endgame.

You also try the 'I haven't submitted a kill' thing, which is almost certainly true, but then, of all the roles in the game, yours is probably the most confirmable and hence the least likely to kill as scum.

Fonz, read the thread, it was either a slip or you were coaching

Again, explain why.

You claim that let Yvonne know that 'I did doc-protect and it was only one person.' Consider the following:

A) It'd be awfully strange if I didn't doc-protect, or in the counterfactual where I am scum, claim to have done so;
B) shaft.ed basically gave away who he targetted long before, with this post:

I would like CKD to tell my why Adele was locked up last night.

There is only one possible town explanation for how he would know that. That cicero's recruit attempt failed could mean either Adele

or

cicero were jailed. That shaft.ed seemed to know that it was Adele who was imprisoned made it obvious.

I therefore fail to see how I could possibly have informed a putative Yvonnescum of anything she didn't already know.

The all-three-as-scum theory of shaft.ed's has crossed my mind, but frankly, if one scum deliberately jailed another whilst the third killed, and claimed to target the jailed second scum, thereby giving all three alibis, that would be an utterly brilliant manoeuvre. I generally work on the theory that the more outlandishly brilliant or stupid a plan has to be to exist, the less likely it actually is to.

All that said, I'm far from ready to vote you right now. I'm going to re-read cicero and Adele. I'm currently seeing Adele/CKD as mutually exclusive scum. Adele's current 'well, both Yvonne/CKd are hella scummy, but I'll support the CKD lynch' gives me a bit of a 'scumbuddy second' vibe. Also:

I suggest that from now on, until at least the SK performs a kill, ckd jails Gorgon every night.

Does this sound like a mafiosa who wants a potentially useful town role out of the way every night? If CKD is town and spends his evenings jailing Gorgon, that's a) a likely SK kill out the way b) a town protection that is going to a target known by the scum and c) a town roleblock not directed at a mafioso.

[The Fonz]

The problem i have with that, CKD, is that if if really were the case that the town would be better off from no-lynching and having the mafia hand us more information through the NK, then mafia can pretty easily no-kill themselves. Any sane mafia will only kill if they believe it in their interests- so for a no lynch to be of use, the mafia would have to assess the situation, gamble, and get unlucky.

I'm not sure i'm keen on those odds.

[The Fonz]

dont think you were directing that answer to me...I never suggested a no lynch

Yeah, sorry, writing an acronym that began with C, just force of habit... meant CES.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz, if the mafia doesn't kill, that would merely keep the situation as is. Not exactly a horrible worst case scenario, aye? .

The problem there is that that is the worst-case scenario

from a scum perspective

. IE, if scum don't think killing makes them better off, they no-kill. So the WCS for scum, pretty much, is the status quo.

[The Fonz]

2) Yvonne and The Fonz are not likely scum partners. Yvonne was very reluctant to claim today, but only my and The Fonz's targets where unknown. Since I'm only going to target from Yvonne, The Fonz or Adele Yvonne would have already known if the Fonz was motivated or not. This reluctance makes me believe they are not aligned.

I don’t know how night works, but if fonz’s was blocked, would he have been able to tell Yvonne that last night that he was indeed blocked if they are scum?

I don't understand what you're saying here.

After yesterday I was feeling that Yvonne was acting quite suspicious, but if I was wrong and targeted her, we would be wasting some valuable information.

How does that not apply equally to Adele?

Can you please provide the post number for this quote.

889, when you announce your jailing of Adele. I went back and looked it over.

Any reason I provide here is walking further down the WIFOM territory. But you really cant see why targeting anyone else Day 1 would have been better for mafia if I was mafia?

Still waiting for an explanation of why Gorgon was an uniquely bad mafia killchoice.

Out of everyone in the game, please explain why Gorgon was better mafia kill choice than..shafted..Yvonne…mathcam..yourself..me?…I targeted Gorgon because I thought he was scum (I was banking on mafia).

Just to clarify- I meant unlikely for a scum CKD to jail, rather than killchoice.

Jailing doc or watcher would have brought an enormous shitstorm down on your head, as has happened today with Adele. shaft.ed seemed a particularly unlikely person to be performing the NK even if he were scum (since no-one claiming to have been motivated would look bad) so would have been an unlikely

town

choice. Mathcam... I don't see how he's any better or worse a choice for scum CKD to jail than Gorgon.

Then you try the mathematical 'probabilities' argument, pointing out how if you're town and die, it's game over. I dislike this because a mislynch is likely game over anyway. We'd need to lynch correctly three times in a row whilst somehow preventing nightkills on three occasions. And on each evening, the 'only i can prevent a scumkill' argument applies, so if we're to keep you alive on the basis of that argument, we'd have to commit to you living to endgame.

If you are scum fonz, who can stop a kill? If there is a chance that either you or myself are indeed town…at this point we should not be lynched. IF we can hit scum today..and between you and myself stop a kill tonight..we will no longer be in lylo tomorrow..right? please explain how I am wrong.

Yes, the best case scenario is that you aren't scum (I already know I'm not) and we somehow prevent a kill between us tomorrow. But that's not what I'm arguing. The point is, if

anyone

gets lynched as town today, it's game over if you're scum, and requires you and I to prevent scum kills on three nights whilst also lynching correctly three times if you're not. The chance of three straight correct lylo lynches AND three blocked NKs are so low, that the play for today is to lynch the most likely scum regardless, since avoiding mislynching ought to be our priority to the exclusion of all else.

You also try the 'I haven't submitted a kill' thing, which is almost certainly true, but then, of all the roles in the game, yours is probably the most confirmable and hence the least likely to kill as scum.

The point is I haven’t…so given this and the above fact, how am I a good choice for a kill today?

Because not having put in a kill does not make you significantly less likely to be scum. Also, I haven't really made my mind up yet as to whether or not you are the right kill choice.

Explain why what?

WHY IT WAS EITHER A SLIP OR COACHING. Since I can't see how i revealed anything she didn't already know if she's scum.

Yvonne did not claim until you said that you indeed had made a protection. If you were scum together, you would not have been able to tell her if DGB had targetted you (at night).

Well, firstly, at that point I believed there was only me and shaft.ed to claim, because shaft.ed had said so in a post just before mine, which i took to be true. So I was unaware DGB hadn't claimed.

Secondly:

Once you told her that you were able to protect, she knew that DGB had not targeted you and she claimed she watched you and no one targeted you. Understand?

No. Because you're wrong.

I

didn't know whether DGB had targetted me or not. If DGB HAD targetted me, I don't believe I'd have been made aware of the fact. (not to mention that if DGB had performed an action on a doctor that would prevent the use of his doc powers, but not a kill attempt if I'd been mafia, I don't think it'd have been Yvonne we were looking hardest at). I don't believe it's common practice to inform doctors whether anything has interfered with their protection attempts- at least, I've never seen it happen.

[The Fonz]

I'm not saying it makes you look scummy at all. My issue was with you trying to make out that jailing Gorgon made you

less

likely to be scum. Nulltell, imo.

[The Fonz]

But, again, scum will only kill if they believe it's in their interests so to do. They won't kill just because it would be nice for the town to get some extra information. So the situation tomorrow is either as it is right now, or something that scum concludes would be better than the status quo.

*It occurred to me that if the scum did no kill, we would at least have some powers passed on to Adele, if she's not jailed again. I suppose that's a small benefit.

[The Fonz]

The mafia killing me strongly risks being watched. Of course, there's also the strong possibility of one or both watchers seeing the killer. Then, of course, there's also the possibility both watchers claim to have seen the other kill me. I'm not sure if that's better or worse than the status quo issue.

Then there's the DGB issue. Theoretically, if she's town, there's no reason for scum not to take a shot at her, since no one can be watched killing her, so the WCS is the same as if scum no-killed. So her surviving the night might indicate her being scum. But, of course, scum know this, and could keep her alive in the hope of getting the easy lynch on that logic.

[The Fonz]

Theoretically, if she's town, there's no reason for scum not to take a shot at her, since no one can be watched killing her

Why on Earth would you point something like that out? Especially since with 2 watchers around, and having a pretty dumb role, I'm not bloody likely to be doc-protected.

You CAN'T be doc-protected. Why did I mention it? Well, doesn't that seem like an argument against no-lynching to you? Either you die as town, without any chance of catching the killer, or we're left with a wifom-riddled situation tomorrow as to 'did she survive because she's scum, or because scum want us to think that?' Any halfway competent scum would have figured that out anyway, and I very much doubt there's not one competent scum amongst the three.

My point is that scum have sufficiently good options for tonight following a nolynch to make it, in my opinion, not a particularly great option for town.

[The Fonz]

If Mafia doesn't kill, then NONE of us will NEED to lie.

[The Fonz]

GOOD Idea.

I can fully get behind CKD's random claim order idea for tomorrow. Although who randomises it?

[The Fonz]

for shits and giggles Fonz, I think you should claim too...you have had two nights of not claiming...time you did maybe?

Again, I'm more than happy to do so if a majority want it and/or someone can demonstrate why it would benefit the town. Tell you what, i'll even throw in my protections from nights one and two, just for kicks.

I like Shaft.ed's popcorn idea.

[The Fonz]

The number that appears in the actual post is different (well, randomised again) from the one that appears in preview.

[The Fonz]

Cicero, why do you think DGB is town? Do you have any reason

DGB, who's scum?

Yvonne's constant pushing of 'why didn't you object to watchers going last! Why didn't you object to watchers going last!' is really quite scummy imho. Since no-one ever suggested a general policy of watchers going last, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. (In fact, perhaps the biggest boon of watchers for town is that it is, itself, a very easy role to catch in a lie).

[The Fonz]

*cicero, do you have any reason beyond gut to suspect me, Yvonne, or Adele? Because quite a lot's happened in this game, and I think going by gut alone at this stage is, well, rather dodgy.

Thoughts on scum combinations coming.

[The Fonz]

Cicero, why do you think DGB is town? Do you have any reason

It's quite imperfect reasoning but her play, and the effort she's put into it, matched DGB town. Not today so much actually, but when she joined in.

I need to meta her as scum though, to be sure. Know of any games where she did all her crazy comparisons and turned up scum? Preferably games with one mafia.

I actually get the Battle Mage vibe off DGB- ie, she seems a lot less sure of herself, less bullheaded, than the usual DGB-town. I have a sense that DGB usually pushes some flawed case relentlessly as town, usually on Adele, and she hasn't done that.

[The Fonz]

DGB usually pushes some flawed case relentlessly as town, usually on Adele, and she hasn't done that.

That's a pretty twisted, backhanded way to discredit my case against Yvonne.

Noted.

Why would I want to discredit anyone's Yvonne case when she's currently my suspect numero uno (along with Adele?) The fact that you seem less sure of yourself than you normally do as town is noteworthy, and trying to impugn my motives for pointing that out, in a manner that doesn't even make any sense only makes me more likely to conclude that you're the third cog to that little scenario.

[The Fonz]

the chances are 3 in 8 that he (CKD) is scum

Again not to keep harping on this issue, but we know CKD didn't perform the NK so he is 2/8 chance of being scum.

Crapmath. That we know he didn't perform the nightkill does not make him less likely to be scum by an amount that can be quantified. How do you get to the number 2/8?

[The Fonz]

Then why /8? There are two scum out of the

seven people

who did not perform the nightkill last night. And, since I would argue the verifiability of his action makes the odds of him being chosen to kill amongst pretty much any given scumgroup go down, (ie- IF he were scum he would be unlikely to NK anyway) then I don't think the odds of him being scum can be specified.

I completely fail to see how performing an action that potentially makes it easier for scum to get away with a nightkill makes his probability of being scum go

down

, which is the implication of that argument.

[The Fonz]

Just thinking out loud... if we were to no-lynch tonight (and it must be stressed- I do not support this at present, I've yet to see anyone address the concerns I've raised) how about we flip a coin, and one of Adele and Yvonne goes first, and the other goes last?

That means everyone else has a chance of being caught out, and since the watchers have a 50% chance of not going last, they've got to be wary of what they do too.

[The Fonz]

If you lynch me, and the NK is not protected against, this town loses.

Seriously, CKD, every time you use this fallacy, the likelihood in my eyes of you being scum goes up. For the last time: the chances are infinitisimal of the town winning if we lynch ANYONE town today. That they are slightly higher if we lynch someone else as town than you as town is not a good reason not to lynch you.

A genuinely protown defence of yourself would revolve around you being town in the first place, not the consequences of lynching you if you are.

[The Fonz]

Hmmm. Nice of Yvonne to show up with something that cries out to be ripped apart.

I think cicero is likely town. There's absolutely no reason for him to be scum and prevent a mislynch today by defending me, especially since I was the easiest target and we are in some sort of potential lylo.

WOAH! Hang on there, sister! For starters, this is premised off your own innocence. Secondly, I'm not sure to what extent he is 'trying to avoid' your lynch when he states that his gut feeling is that you are scum. Also, and this is important: there is no town-tell in preferring the lynch of one town player over another, so for this argument to hold any weight whatsoever, it basically requires CKD (whose lynch cicero

is

pushing) to be scum. Yet you say he's

more likely to be town than scum

and voting DrippingGoofball. What gives?

Also, on the CKD jailing Gorgon thing. Can you not see why it would be the interests of the mafia, if CKD is town, to suggest such a plan? Town role (one of only two that can stop a scum kill) is tied up indefinitely whilst preventing the SK from killing?

[The Fonz]

In that context, the idea of jailing Gorgon indefinitely - while not a good idea - looks to me more like townie fear of a mislynch now that we know that Gorgon wasn't scumbuddies with anyone. In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure. (if Sylar killed again, it cleared Gorgon).

I disagree, and further to the point, why is one thing which seems to me scum-benefitting (tying up the JK) so obviously just due to a town fear of mislynch, but another scum benefitting action (jailing a watcher) cause for your vote?

Does this mean she's definitely town? Of course not. When we each play as scum we all try to play as townie as possible. But the idea that there was no townie motive for that suggestion is incorrect.

When people propose ideas, it makes sense that you look at the suggestion and work out if it's broadly town-favouring or scum-favouring. Of course town occasionally suggests scum-favouring things- but why would you blithely assume Yvonne and Adele (who presumably is sufficiently au fait with the permutations to realise what the effects of typing up the jailkeeper would be) have town motives in proposing that plan?

Next, Fonz, what exactly is wrong with her voting Dripping Goofball? What gives is not a question. The reasons she gave made sense.

Cicero, I have to wonder here whether you actually read my last post. Her argument for why she thinks you're town is explicitly based off her own innocence, and implicitly based off the notion that CKD is scum. If she actually thinks CKD is town, then how can you going after CKD rather than her be any kind of town-tell on your part?

[The Fonz]

CKD is more experienced than Yvonne by far. Yvonne floated a trial balloon for the town to consider. CKD just went ahead and did what he did. I also see a difference between tieing up a rather conflicted role like the jailkeeper, and tieing up a person who could act as motivator, watcher, or extra doctor if given the right powers. CKD's action was ENORMOUSLY and BLATANTLY anti-town. It's almost impressive in its sheer audacity, if he is scum. This is far different than brainstorming a way for town to maybe have its cake and eat it too. Can you not see the obvious difference?

OK, CKD's more experienced than Yvonne. Adele? Also, it doesn't strike me that Yvonne is exactly a raw newbie. She has six months on the site and six completed games. Also, we're comparing apples to oranges. Night actions and daytalk are fundamentally different things. I cannot think of many bigger scumtells that can occur during the day than a) pushing a scum-favouring plan, b) attributing to others positions they never held (claiming that everyone supported the idea of 'watchers go last' in perpetuity) and c) refusing to claim when it is the consensus that one do so.

I don't blithely assume anything. I'm raising the counterpoint based on all the information at my disposal, when others were blithely assumes the opposite and not even considering a plausible pro-town motive. I do that. And I'm not even saying it clears her. Does your suggested scumgroup include Yvonne as well as Adele because only scum would suggest it? Odds suggest it might be raised by people with town intentions.

Where does anyone assume that suggesting something scummy makes someone definitely scum? Whereas you appear to be arguing precisely that CKD's action is entirely incompatible with his being town (since you claim to get a protown feeling from him otherwise).

What I'm asking is what is wrong with her case against DrippingGoofball - which centres on DGB trying to suspect her no matter what facts she's using as premises turn out to be false. This is a separate point from whether she suspects me or CKD. CKD and I can both be town, and for various reasons she can infer that.

I never said there was anything wrong in the case on DrippingGoofball itself, did I? What I said was, it's logically inconsistent to make one argument premised off CKD being scum, and then vote someone else.

CKD and you could OF COURSE be both town. But it's not valid to argue for your innocence off the basis of CKD's guilt, then vote someone other than CKD.

This is the crux of my argument. For Yvonne's argument in your favour to carry any weight whatsoever, CKD must be scum. Your unwillingness to vote Yvonne, 'preventing a mislynch' is only a towntell IF CKD IS SCUM. My position is that it is not a towntell to shun a particular town wagon, if the alternative is another town wagon.

So this second premise you suggest is necessary - of CKD being scum - is completely unnecessary. Premise one stands up whether he's scum or town.

No it doesn't. I'd like you to explain why favouring one wagon on a town player over another wagon on a town player could reasonably be considered a town tell.

If you concede that it cannot, then Yvonne's defence of you and her non-voting of CKD are inconsistent with one another, and one or other (or both) must be invalid.

In other news,

Vote: YvonneSeer

With CES voting CKD, that reduces the likelihood of a CKD/CES pairing. I don't see CKD as scum with cicero or Adele (Adele's possible scumtell of suggesting CKD lock up Gorgon indefinitiely, and CKD's of locking up Adele, both seem to be more reasonable from a scum perspective if the other is town). I know I'm not scum with CKD. This, from my perspective, leaves an awfully limited number of options for CKD scumgroups, and a majority of plausible CKD scumgroups from my perspective also include Yvonne (I think Yvonne/Adele are likely scumpartners, but Yvonne is more likely to be scum if Adele is not than vice versa, imho). I'm pretty confident this is the better lynch.

[The Fonz]

I'm not sure CKD

is

a harder lynch, though. I'm also sceptical of the use of the terms 'easy lynch' and 'hard lynch' in general, cause, usually when I see someone described as an 'easy lynch' it means they're a relatively new player who's dropped a ton of scumtells, or a known player with a very antitown playstyle.

It's basically saying that it's wrong to go after the player who's done the most obviously scummy things. And I think that's just ludicrous. In the same way I dislike the 'newbie card' outside of the RTR.

[The Fonz]

Cicero- you might get the impression that I think Adele is scum too from that argument. You might also get it from the several occasions where I have

said

that I think it likely Adele and Yvonne are scumbuddies. Indeed, you may note that I first raised the 'jailing gorgon' argument in relation to Adele and not Yvonne.

You have a point that you'd rather be in the 'CKD is the play' business. Well, I'm firmly in the 'CKD is not the play' camp.

Basically, cicero, I fundamentally disagree that CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for her argument in your defence. I don't see how her defence of you for defending her has any validity if CKD is town.

[The Fonz]

Basically, cicero, I fundamentally disagree that CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for her argument in your defence. I don't see how her defence of you for defending her has any validity if CKD is town.

From what I can tell Fonz, after what I comprehensively demonstrated, it is impossible to continue to hold that opinion honestly. This isn't an opinion issue. It's a flowchart issue.

If you want me to not add +1 to my fonzie scumdar you're going to have to demonstrate for me the error of my ways.

Others can look at my posts and Fonz's posts and make up their own minds on the issue.

In order to honestly disagree with that opinion, you'd have to believe that it is a towntell to shun one town wagon in favour of another.

From my POV, it's fairly clear that not attacking a town Yvonne in order to attack a town CKD would be basically a wash in terms of evidence about your alignment.

Fonz, I never made any argument that CKD is scum. You're completely misinterpreting what I'm saying.

No, I'm really not. In fact, I'm making a point out of the fact that you're not arguing that CKD is scum. The misrep is on your point.

I'm a townie and cicero did not push for my lynch, when he could have gone along with the majority who wanted me lynched and possibly win the game. He also has not done anything scummy that I can see. Hence, I find him to be likely town.

There was never a 'majority' in favour of your lynch. To pretend otherwise is dishonest. There was a majority willing to use their votes if necessary to make you claim, sure. The CKD wagon (if he is town) has always seemed like an equally obvious one for scum to 'just go along with' and win the game.

This is from

my

point of view.

I

find him to be likely town. I didn't ask you or anyone else to think he is town because of the reasons I gave. If you think he's scum, it's unrelated to me since I find him to be town. And why must CKD be automatically scum for cicero to be town? Why can't they both be town? If cicero is looking in all the wrong places for scum, it's hardly my fault, is it?

This is an outright misrepresentation. I never said CKD must automatically be scum for cicero to be town. What I

said

was, in order for your specific argument in favour of cicero's townieness to carry any weight (even from your own perspective), CKD has to be scum. Because ignoring one 'townie' lynch which presents the opportunity to have 'gone along... and possibly win the game' in favour of another townie lynch TO WHICH THE EXACT SAME CONDITION APPLIES is not a towntell.

1. Asking CKD to jail Gorgon.
You keep stating that it is a scum-favouring plan but you never thought about the potential benefits from a town perspective. You intentionally choose to put me as scum in this situation, but not as town. Why?

I see the potential benefits to mafia of that plan outweighing the potential benefits to town (which, incidentally, I'm still not that clear on). I expect town players to push plans which benefit town, and scum players to push plans which benefit scum, more often than not.

2. Claiming that watchers should go last.
I'm town and I'm a watcher. I just want to use my role as much as I can, by catching the most amount of potential liars if I claim last. Do you or do you not agree that it is the best way to utilise a town watcher?

It would be the best way to use a watcher we know to be town, sure. But you ain't that, honey. You seem to insist on putting yourself in a situation where there is no possibility of you ever coming under any scrutiny.

In particular, you refused to claim, at a point where THE PERSON MOST LIKELY TO BE CAUGHT IN A LIE WAS YOU.

Also, your claim that everyone was basically in favour of watchers claiming last in general is looking like an outright lie to me at this point.

. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted.

Except that your 'CKD, why did you jail Adele' post makes it pretty obvious that you targetted Adele (because cicero's recruitment failing could have been explained by either of him and adele being jailed, but you immediately accused CKD of jailing Adele).

[The Fonz]

Fonz - her argument was predicated on CKD being a harder road to hoe. Not on CKD being scum. You can say she was mistaken or not the case but it still doesnt make CKD being scum a necessary premise. You're just wrong on this one.

If you think pushing a 'hard' town lynch is townier than pushing an 'easy' one, then I just flat out disagree. But at least I can see where you're coming from- you're disputing the premise that it's impossible for it to be a towntell to push one townie wagon in preference to another.

I maintain that I believe it to be an acceptable premise- and I can think of numerous reasons why a scum cicero might prefer the CKD wagon to an Yvonnewagon. Not least, you're playing with competent players here. You would know that if you went after Yvonne whilst seeming insincere, you'd get called on it.

I don't accept the existence of 'easy' and 'hard' lynches. I don't think it's any harder for a newish protown player to come up with a town-sounding rationale for their actions than a vet, because if the player is actually town, that reason actually exists and is the genuine reason for the action.

When I see a bad argument directed at a newbie, i point it out. When i see a bad argument directed at a vet, I point it out. People should be attacked and defended on the merits of their position, and all I see w/r/t Yvonne is you playing the newbie card over and over on behalf of a player who's been around just as long as you have. If anything, going after n00bs is more dangerous, because there's the potential for accusations of opportunism and a greater likelihood of getting OMGUSed.

[The Fonz]

Ciciero, very a good point. The only player after D1 that knew they were going last, if at all, was The Fonz not Yvonne. Quite the interesting looking back at the push to make Yvonne claim first.

I'm not sure how you figure that, since cicero and CKD were pressing me to claim at the beginning of the day. (Incidentally, it occurs to me that we should have instituted 'cicero goes last' since his choice is so easily confirmable. Then again, it occurs to me that then, he could claim to have targetted whoever's jailed on a specific day. This is what I get for stream-of-consciousness posting).

DGB's latest attack on Yvonne is noted, if only because she does not employ

@ Shaft.ed: I think it is quite clear that Yvonne would have been aware that I had not been targetted by you, just from information in-thread.

Your claim to have assumed that Adele was jailed because you were able to talk to cicero doesn't really make sense. Jailkeepers never prevent mason discussion, because discussion between existing masons doesn't involve targetting. Same as you can't RB a mason.

I

certainly took it as evidence you targetted Adele. (To come full circle on the 'coaching' accusations CKD brought up earlier, I'd have been more careful in talking about 'THE [singular] player I protected' had I not believed you'd already given away that you'd targetted Adele).

[The Fonz]

*DGB's latest attack is noted, just because she doesn't employ the best argument available to her.

[The Fonz]

Also, apologies for the postx3 (

mod, feel free to clear up if you want

Cicero, I feel I owe you a fuller explanation of my views on the 'easy lynch' thing. It's a pet peeve of mine, and I'll go into why exactly tomorrow.

[The Fonz]

Not really. I don't recall ever having said holding that opinion makes you scum. I said it didn't think it was a valid argument in defence of Adele. You have said on more than one occasion that you find it hard to accept that I honestly believe what i'm saying. I see that as motive-impugning.

[The Fonz]

*Yvonne, not Adele.

[The Fonz]

Let me explain why i believe it first, hombre. Night.

[The Fonz]

Will read, and post tonight.

[The Fonz]

____________________
On the subject of the 'easy lynch' argument:

What do we mean by easy lynch? Since scum will often support, oppose, or ignore, a wagon based on whatever they deem to be in their interest, the answer seems to be to be a wagon of which it is fairly easy to persuade town players of the correctness. To my mind, in order to convince town players to support a wagon, one has to come up with arguments for that player's scumminess that pass scrutiny by other players. Fabricated or trumped-up arguments can, and should, lead to the lynch of the pusher before they lead to the lynch of the target.

Things about which valid arguments can be made asserting that player's scumminess are generally called 'scumtells.' Scumtells are things which are more often done by scum than town, or seem to benefit scum, and therefore make a player more likely to be scum.


All things being equal, it is always in the town's interests to lynch the scummiest player (claims aside). But are all things equal? In my view, no. It is my contention that newer and lesser-known players will get more of the 'benefit of the doubt' than veterans for a similar number/gravity of scumtells. Therefore, a newbie lynch is actually 'harder' than a vet lynch (so even if it were possible there were such a thing as an easy lynch, new players would not be it). Yes, it is true that new players get lynched early on more often than not. But this is simply a result of newbies producing more scumtells.

It is not in the town's interests to ignore the player who is the scummiest just because (s)he is comparatively new. For starters, it doesn't help that player become a better player. Also, if you're going to throw a 'newbie' blanket' over the newer players in a game, you end up lynching vet players based on much weaker evidence of scumminess, and giving newbie scum an excuse to pursue their objectives in plain sight.

Most mafia arguments relate to a) whether or not something is a valid scumtell and b) whether there are mitigating circumstances that make it not apply in this circumstance. If the answer to a) is no, the player pushing the lynch is guilty of making bad arguments. If you think it's b), other players can then look at your own argument for mitigating circumstances. It is, in my opinion, on the strength of the arguments presented that the case for lynching someone should be assessed.

I'm afraid I can't offer you particularly good meta on this, since a couple of games where it's come up are ongoing, and in the one where it really mattered, I was scum. I will describe this to you briefly, since it goes to the heart of what i think is the flaw in the easy lynch argument:

In Pablito's Ultimatum Mafia (in this forum), there were two scumgroups. Conservatives (ABR, Yos2, and myself) and Liberals, which included Vandamien and Sparks. Town included Stoofer, and a player called Dylan.

Day one, Sparks (a new player) stood out as the scummiest, dropping scumtells right and left. Just behind him was Dylan, another n00b. (This game had a challenge method). Sparks was nominated, and challenged Dylan. Sparks lost, just, and was lynched. One scum down.

Next day, (after Sparks' buddy carrotcake had been modkilled) VanDamien, the third liberal, gave up and outed himself. Battle Mage then replaces in, and makes a hugely antitown challenge of VD, who the town as a whole had decided should be allowed to live for now. He's voted off (unanimously minus Yos). Then Dylan challenges Stewie, by consensus the towniest player in the game, and loses, unanimously.

The next day, the consensus, including me (bussing) is that ABR is the scummiest. Stoofer, however, defends him on the grounds that he is an 'easy lynch' and that pursuing easy lynches the previous few days has got us nowhere. This is despite the fact that in each of the previous two days, lynching the 'harder' wouldn't have benefitted the town, and the 'easy lynch' on day one netted a scum. ABR challenges mneme, who's fairly town-looking, and Stoofer's is the deciding vote in getting mneme lynched. Next day, I challenge stoofer, and win the challenge in a landslide, giving the game to my scumgroup.

Stoofer's use of the 'easy lynch' argument here costs town the game. He voted a vet town player, who's not really done that much wrong, over a very scummy new player, for the sake of avoiding the easy lynch, and lo and behold, the very scummy player was actually scum.

I hate the newbie card in general, and will always assume a player is scum rather than dumb. Have I lynched a fair few antitown looking newbies along the way? Of course. But I don't think my methods are any less efficient than anyone else's. When I defend newbies, I tend to do it from the perspective that action X or Y just doesn't have much utility for scum, however bad it may look.
________________________________________

OK so before I postulated that last nights killer had to be one of CES, DGB, or The Fonz. Would the three of you be kind enough to comment on the other two players on this list?

And I've made it clear in no uncertain terms that I reject this as a false dichotomy. I've shown that Yvonne's claim does not clear her at all. If

either

Adele or CKD is scum, then cicero or yourself isn't cleared either. And the chance of one or more of Adele and CKD being scum, at this point, is better than half.

Though, whilst we're on the subject, I don't like CES' pushing of no-lynch. I don't feel it benefits the town.

shafted: if your calculations are correct, from my perspective, I'd say CES and the Fonz have a 50-50 chance! TSQ's behaviour early in the game was pretty distracting, and the Fonz has remained rational and calm, but I'm not liking his vote on CKD.

DGB, how can you 'not like' my CKD vote? I've never voted CKD! In fact, I've argued for the Yvonne lynch over his, on the grounds that it's hard to see a viable CKD scumgroup, especially one not also featuring Yvonne.

No they cant watch her. And what's worse, if the watchers decided to watch TSQ/CES, what DG did last night would preclude them from seeing anything TSQ/CES might try to do. (By which I of course mean shoot somebody).

Which means she's a rockin' choice for a jail cell if she lives through the day.

DGB is a rockin' choice for a jail cell for another reason- if she's town, she can be killed off with no possibility of watching or doc protect. The possibility of her being jailed is the only thing that can prevent this. CKD, do as you see fit if we no-lynch, but I suggest you assign a decent probability to a DGB jailing, at least, should we go to night (more on this to come...)

Unvote. Vote No Lynch

I'm back here now and think it's a great idea again.

We've had a bunch of great discussion now (no sleepwalking!) Lots of stuff is on the table. No one is under the radar or above suspicion and it's time to improve the town's odds. We get one more night of investigation and pay pretty much no price for it. We'll increase our %chance of hitting scum with all these being equal, but things won't be all that equal cuz of all the superpowered information we'll get in the night. Frankly, if it all goes down correctly we can up our chances of hitting scum to over 50% I think. Do eet. It's the right thing to do and a tasty way to do it. I still think one big drawback exists obviously - that scum will just need to twist one townie. I understand that. But with all the other things going for us, including info, I think it's outweighed. I don't want to say more on it, really, because

I'm not sure we will improve our percentage chance of hitting scum, with scum having a greater proportion of the vote.

More to the point, there remains the DGB issue. If DGB is town, then scum can take a shot at her, with no possibility of detection. The worst case scenario for them there is DGB gets jailed, which leaves us back at the status quo with the marginal benefit that I or shaft.ed MAY choose to pass our powers to Adele. The best case scenario is a town player down, and no additional info.

So really, in order for no-lynching to have any conceivable benefit, DGB has to be scum. And if we're voting anything based on the notion that DGB is scum, it should be a DGB lynch.

Assuming the scum kill overnight, we drop a pro-town suspect, reducing the field - which is good - but we also lose that pro-town player's thoughts and ideas and suspicions, and their vote. Which is bad.

Yeah, I know. I made the argument myself the first time. There is an incentive for scum to kill. Which is good. I like how there's a possible advantage to changing the state of the game for both sides.

The important point though, is that the decision as to whether or not changing the game state is favourable is

left to the scum

. IE, there will only be a change in gamestate if the scum deem it in their interests to do so.

Do you think CES was scummy for suggesting the move in the first place? We can all agree he's pretty damn smart, yes?

Yes, though it's not an open and shut case. I think the no-lynch is less obviously scummy than the tie-up-the-jailkeeper plan.

I think the watchers should have no idea about claim order until tomorrow. I think it should be decided by diceroll. The popcorn thing is just that whoever claims does the diceroll for the next person to claim. Under no circumstances should anyone be able to strategise their order placement today. Particularly since no one finds either watcher to be super obv-townie.

Cool with this,

if

we decide to no-lynch, but i'm still currently against that. I don't really feel my concerns have been adequately addressed.

My personal suggestion, which, I admit, involves significantly more variance than a random chain, is to appoint a listmaker come morrow. (The idea is that the listmaker makes a list, capiche?) Obviously this plan relies quite a bit on our ability to find a town dude, but, frankly, if we are incapable of that, we don't really stand much of a chance of winning.

Here's a possibility. How about everyone make a list NOW? I'm not committed to this plan, but it has benefits, I'd like to hear what people.

Then, if the scum choose to nightkill, whoever dies has their list used. There seems to be the obvious objection that scum could just kill whoever has the best order for them, but OTOH there's a number of factors weighing into possible nightkill choices, like possibility of lynching 'em tomorrow, possibility of getting caught, etc. If the scum no-kill, we go to randomness.

Fonz is scum. I'd bet my left arm.

Cicero, this is poor. I didn't feel I had the energy to get caught up with all my games in one day. Hence, I did the normals (and newbie game) yesterday, and am dealing with the minis (which are fewer, but all at fairly advanced stages, requiring some pretty serious analysis) from me, today. I didn't even check Coney Island yesterday. For your argument that my absence makes me scum, I'd have to be scum in all my minis, one of which was at deadline and in which I'd received a prod, making it a priority above this one. In the same way that you claimed I 'started posting more' because you'd accused me of being likely scum for being measured and saying just enough. So, uh, it had nothing to do with me getting a couple days off, and other games going to night then?

Also, at various points today, you have stated that your 'gut instinct is that Adele and Yvonne are scum,' voted CKD, voted DGB, and said that you'd 'bet your left arm' that I'm scum. And supported no-lynch. I find that a rather worrying range of suspicions.

[The Fonz]

*I posted in my large games yesterday, not my 'normal' games.

[The Fonz]

Nuh-uh. We've asked you to give strong consideration to one course of action. DGB has to be a strong candidate. That's really not to say she's the only one, though. In the same way that I have to be a strong watch candidate, and you have to be a strong protect candidate. That doesn't tie anyone's hands.

Also, in light of my objections, what do you have to say on the no-lynch matter?

[The Fonz]

Most likely my vote will stay there. What it boils down to today is if we mislynch today and mafia get a NK tonight..we lose..simple as that. Your thoughts on that Fonz?

My thoughts on that is if the scum get a NK and we mislynch tomorrow, we lose. If scum don't nightkill, we're back here. And the call is made by the scum. They'll only kill if they think it's more likely to result in a scum win.

Therefore, no-lynch is giving the scum the choice of the status quo, or something they think is better.

[The Fonz]

Protected Adele.


1.) Adele
2.) Cicero
3.) curiouskarmadog:
4.) DrippingGoofball
5.) shaft.ed

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

[The Fonz]

CKD, you're up.

[The Fonz]

First things first, cicero is telling the truth about having networked me. I was pretty glad of this, since I had in my head prior to that the scenario where cicero performs the kill, and claims to have recruited a scumbuddy, who backs him up.

A few thoughts:

IF

CKD is the killer, DrippingGoofball is almost certainly aligned with him. There seems to be absolutely no rhyme nor reason for killing Yvonne, and risking an Adelewatch, when a CKD scumgroup could safely kill DGB and leave no possibility of detection, and leave a widely suspected town player in Yvonne alive as a potential counterwagon today. Certainly, I think I would have supported an Yvonnewagon.

An Yvonne kill over a DGB one, on the other hand, makes perfect sense with Adele as scum. Neither has any chance of causing a scum to get caught in a lie, but DGB was much the more likely to be jailed. If Adele is scum, I could see DGB as either scum or town.

shaft.ed's claimed targetting of Yvonne makes him

somewhat

more likely to be scum. If CKD is indeed the killer, then his action makes an Adelewatch less likely (and, I suppose, a potential fonzprotect, though I was never particularly likely to protect Yvonne). If Adele and not CKD is the scum, then it means Adele doesn't have a second, possibly risky, watching to claim.

Given their previous interactions, it's extremely unlikely this is any kind of bus gambit.

I find it basically impossible to believe that cicero is scum with CKD at this point.

So from my POV the scum pretty much have to be:

CKD: DrippingGoofball and one of CES or shaft.ed
Adele: two from three of DGB, shaft.ed, and CES.

If we lynch correctly today, hopefully nightactions will allow us to narrow it down further.

I suggest everyone re-read both of those in today's dispute, and then the next step is a full-on interrogation of both.

[The Fonz]

Today is going to boil down to a choice, do you believe Adele or myself. Yvonne was the only person yesterday that didn’t vote me (I think) when I pushed to hang her because I thought she could be scum.

Not true, by a long way. None of myself, drippinggoofball, and shaft.ed voted you yesterday.

After all the heat yesterday really want to town to believe that CKDscum killed Yvonne ? If I was scum, targeting anyone else would have been better than targeting CES. I understand this is a WIFOM defense, but seriously, that would have been a horrible play scum. Adele you are a liar, and I hope the town doesn’t believe it.

Targetting CES is unverifiable, so leaves you free to kill. If you are the scum killer, not only does it make sense for you to claim to have targetted CES or DGB, but it requires you to so claim. Targetting watcher, doc or motivator would likely have seen you strung up.

And I simply don't buy the notion that it makes particularly little sense for CKD scum to kill Yvonne. You weren't the most anti-Yvonne player yesterday by any means. Both myself and DGB were more vocally anti-Yvonne. Now, since I've concluded DGB pretty much has to be scum if you are, I suppose you might make the argument

Also after all the crap you gave me yesterday, why didn’t Cicero and shafted target Adele?

Strawman? There seems to me no particular reason to network Adele. Cicero's ability isn't a power, so can't be passed on. As for shaft.ed, well, are you really trying to argue there was only one acceptable target for him last night?

[The Fonz]

* I suppose you might make the argument that it makes no sense for a DGB scumgroup to kill Yvonne.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, who do you think I should have jailed after yesterday? I could have not jailed anyone (but I would be in the same position) So I am strung up if I target them (doc, watcher, motivator) or I am in the position I am in now. Great.

I don't think targetting CES is a bad move, at all, if you're town. My point is that targetting CES doesn't in any way, shape or form, clear you. You argued that jailing CES was the one move which made least sense for you as scum. I called bullshit.

This is the second time you've pulled this exact argument:

CKD: It makes absolutely no sense for scumCKD to do that
Fonz: I don't see why doing X is a uniquely bad idea for scum
CKD: You're wrong to argue that doing X makes me scum

Also did you say anything about DGB being jailed last night when Cicero said this?

No they cant watch her. And what's worse, if the watchers decided to watch TSQ/CES, what DG did last night would preclude them from seeing anything TSQ/CES might try to do. (By which I of course mean shoot somebody).

Which means she's a rockin' choice for a jail cell if she lives through the day.

Yes, I did.

No they cant watch her. And what's worse, if the watchers decided to watch TSQ/CES, what DG did last night would preclude them from seeing anything TSQ/CES might try to do. (By which I of course mean shoot somebody).

Which means she's a rockin' choice for a jail cell if she lives through the day.

DGB is a rockin' choice for a jail cell for another reason- if she's town, she can be killed off with no possibility of watching or doc protect. The possibility of her being jailed is the only thing that can prevent this. CKD, do as you see fit if we no-lynch, but I suggest you assign a decent probability to a DGB jailing, at least, should we go to night (more on this to come...) [/quote]

I also later said this:

Nuh-uh. We've asked you to give strong consideration to one course of action. DGB has to be a strong candidate. That's really not to say she's the only one, though. In the same way that I have to be a strong watch candidate, and you have to be a strong protect candidate. That doesn't tie anyone's hands.

It was on Page 53, I thought that CES might be sending in the kill if he was scum or he would be assumed unwatched if someone tried to kill him. I thought he was the best choice between DGB and CES.

Again, I don't think this is a bad decision at all if you're town.

Also after all the crap you gave me yesterday, why didn’t Cicero and shafted target Adele?

Strawman? There seems to me no particular reason to network Adele. Cicero's ability isn't a power, so can't be passed on. As for shaft.ed, well, are you really trying to argue there was only one acceptable target for him last night?

Why didn’t you say this yesterday when Cicero claimed to target Adele but was blocked because I jailed her?

Errr... what do those things have to do with each other? I never said jailing Adele was scummy specifically because it prevented cic from networking her.

I didn’t target Adele again because I thought maybe shafted and Cicero would target her again…so I think this is a fair question. I thought most of the reason it was so “anti-town” to target Adele yesterday was because she didn’t get shafted’s powers, Cicero couldn’t put her in the network, and you couldn’t give her your powers, etc etc. I just wondered why he felt Yvonne was a better target than Adele.

Who is 'he' in this scenario?

Your jailing of Adele was scummy for several reasons. Passing powers was a minor one. A more important one would be that it prevented Adele (if town) from catching a killer in the act, and (if scum) meant that there were two potential lies she had to make, on which she herself might have been caught out, that you saved her the trouble of having to come out with.

Also, didn’t any of you (Cicero, Shafted, or Fonz) discuss anything last night that could share some light on anything today?

Nope. I don't discuss anything beyond the cursory with people whose alignment I'm ignorant of.

If CKD is scum, who could his buddies be, that CKD was the favored player to send in the kill?

No time to pos right now, but this s what really troubles me. I think if we figure this out, we lynch correctly.

Now, I've already argued why DGB pretty much has to be CKD's buddy if he's scum.

If we assume that DGB and CKD are scum, what is the optimal course of action?

It strikes me that it would be optimal for CKD to kill and to claim to have targetted CES, whilst Goof dampens CES and claims to have done nothing.

Dampening CES is indistinguishable from him being jailed, apart from that he can be killed, which isn't an issue since scum know they're not targetting him. If CES is watched, the most obvious reason for 'no-result' is a jailing.

So, this course of action has absolutely no downside compared with DGB killing and CKD actually jailing CES. It has the advantage that a watcher's result on CKD is less likely to be believed, imho, than one on DGB, who a couple of people including the NK victim suspected yesterday, and had obvious motive.

As for the third buddy, pretty much anyone but Adele makes sense in this scenario.

Cicero because he basically has to perform his action (though I don't think cicero is scum with CKD for other reasons).

shaft.ed, ditto.

CES because this plan gives him an alibi.

The Fonz - no. If scum, he doesn't need to actually protect anybody, except if he's watched. In killing Yvonne, he doesn't have to do anything. So if Fonz was CKD's buddy, it wouldn't make sense for CKD to do the kill. They would both know who they're killing.

Except that I can't claim to have done nothing, and I can't know if the person I've claimed to target has been watched or not. In a hypothetical and counterfactual Fonz-CKD pair, either one of us would make as much sense as the other.

So if CKD is scum, I'd guess buddies with two of cicero, Adele and shafted. This suggest that Adele and CKD might be bus'ing each other. Since we haven't caught scum yet, it's a pretty safe midgame strategy.

A question. Do you believe that a) cicero's actions towards CKD yesterday or b) Adele's claiming a guilty on him today look like bussing?

How about it's this simple:

Adele is scum and it's win-win for scum. They target and kill one watcher. The other, going last, accuses CKD who a lot of people already think is scum from yesterday's push. Yvonne coming up town further makes him look bad. Scum don't much care which way today's lynch goes because they're more than happy getting rid of Peter Petrelli even if s/he's on their team. There will be no more investigative roles in the game. Adele wont have to operate against her own interest and accidentally get caught in a lie. The other two can continue to play a more normal game of mafia.

Thoughts?

The thing is, I'd say that, going last, claiming to have seen me, DGB, or only shaft.ed, would all have been easier moves for scumdele to pull off than fingering CKD. It would have been quite simple to claim that my claim of targetting her was a lie, or that the one player who didn't have any kind of alibi was there, or that no-one but shaft.ed was.

And on the other hand we had two nights where CKD made the wrong choice. Last night his only play was Dripping Goofball, because Dripping Goofball is a perfect killing machine who needs to be put in jail. But there was always the chance that DGB might have tried to use her power. If jailed she would have gotten a message that says her powers failed. If she didnt get that message we'd know CKD was in the wrong spot.

Untrue. I believe that only watchers/yourself would be informed if their actions failed, because those actions are expected to return results at night. I don't believe I, shaft.ed or DGB would be informed.

Instead, CKD, again, under the principle of "I'm so sneaky" and "dont tell me what to do motherfuckers" failed to give himself an alibi and also left out the one player who could operate with impunity. So, the real reason might just be that the guy's scum.

Meh. CES and DGB can operate with equal impunity. Given that there was plenty of talk of jailing DGB, I can see how going against the obvious there makes sense.

Fonz, can I ask you who you targeted N1 and N2 now? I think it is relevant that the town had to wait until D3 to get Protection powers over to Adele (although CKD did make that impossible last night).

Yvonne N1. CKD N2. Night one, there was a pretty clear consensus that whoever out of me and Yvonne was motivated target Adele. It wasn't me, so I didn't. Protecting a player who was likely to be watched seemed a waste. Instead, I protected the player doing the watching, both to prevent the kill and to ensure she lived long enough to pass on her powers (kills come before watching).

The reason I didn't protect Adele night two (although you couldn't actually know I didn't attempt to do so until now) was based on two things. Firstly, if we're not in block-kill-or-lose, the watcher power is more useful than the doc one anyway. Secondly, it was kinda the expected move. So I figured scum would avoid Adele, and so I went for another player with a useful ability for town, who might make a good NK choice. CKD.

But yeah -- how is it townie to leave the untrackable killing machine unjailed exactly? You're too smart for these choices, which leads me to believe you to be scum.

DGB isn't untrackable, at least in the sense that if she kills, a watcher watching her target will see this. We've gone over this several times.

again, I am not certian how failed notices work at night.

well, if she targetted a watcher (they would have gotten a fail at night right?) would shafted and fonz be notified if there night actions failed?

Watchers and cicero... yes.

Anyone else... no.

[The Fonz]

Co-ordinating a three man hammer is much tougher than a two-man one, mind.

[The Fonz]

It seems shaft.ed is. I was, but the last few pages have kinda swung me a bit CKD-wards.

cicero, what do you think of my argument that DGB has to be scum if CKD is?

[The Fonz]

If we assume that DGB and CKD are scum, what is the optimal course of action?

It strikes me that it would be optimal for CKD to kill and to claim to have targetted CES, whilst Goof dampens CES and claims to have done nothing.

Dampening CES is indistinguishable from him being jailed, apart from that he can be killed, which isn't an issue since scum know they're not targetting him. If CES is watched, the most obvious reason for 'no-result' is a jailing.

So, this course of action has absolutely no downside compared with DGB killing and CKD actually jailing CES. It has the advantage that a watcher's result on CKD is less likely to be believed, imho, than one on DGB, who a couple of people including the NK victim suspected yesterday, and had obvious motive.

I do like how elegant this argument is. But when I proposed a similar multilayered argument yesterday you mentioned that you usually don't buy in to scenarious this complicated. This 1) assumes DGB scum, and still doesn't explain why CKD made the kill. His power is of benefit to the scum, I don't see DGB being as useful.

So the main reason I'm not buying CKDscum is "why would CKD make the kill?"

On the contrary I'm not buying Adele scum because "why would she finger CKD?" It's easy enough for her to say I targeted Yvonne and leave it at that. Neither of these make any sense to me right now.

*Shrugs*

For starters, I've explained why I'm assuming DGB scum if CKD is earlier. IF you think that argument's flawed, sobeit, but I'd like to hear why.

Also, the multilayered argument you came out with yesterday basically required the scumgroup to be adele, cicero, CKD iirc. I didn't think precise, neat, and interlocking sets of results like that were that likely, nor did I want to bet the farm on any specific group of three at that point.

This explanation, however, makes sense for any possible CKD group I can think of. It's simply the optimal play, imho, for any CKD scumgroup also involving DGB (in my mind, all the plausible ones). You asked for a potential combination of scumbuddies in which it would make sense for CKD to do the kill.

In a potential CKD, CES, shaft.ed group it might also make sense, fwiw. You have a highly confirmable power, and CES is arguably more valuable to scum going forward since he a) has come under less suspicion and b) doesn't have an action which he'd be expected to use every night. I really don't see how CKD can be scum without DGB, though.

[The Fonz]

It seems shaft.ed is. I was, but the last few pages have kinda swung me a bit CKD-wards.

cicero, what do you think of my argument that DGB has to be scum if CKD is?

How can you say you were leaning toward Adele? Your last post was a complete go at CKD. You didnt quote any of Adele's responses at all.

My last post was in response to those same last few pages that I just said had influenced me, and made me feel that CKD is more likely to be scum. So it's hardly surprising that a post responding to the events of those same pages sounds anti-CKD in tone. During those pages, it felt like Adele's posts were fairly unobjectionable, whilst CKD made arguments that didn't really make sense, distorted the case against him, etc.

My anti-Adele feelings come in large part from earlier in the game.

And I keep reading your explanation and I may just not be smart enough to get it. I don't see how it helps us to decide who is scum here.

Between Adele and CKD? It probably doesn't. If we lynch CKD as scum, or Adele as town and somehow block the kill? It's worth hearing, imho.

[The Fonz]

Will do, let me find it.

[The Fonz]

Got it. I'd agree that DGB is the optimal lie if she isn't his scumbuddy. However, if she is, CES is a better one. Why? Because claims that appear to be taking some kind of risk if scum (ie, CES could theoretically have been watched) are generally stronger than those that involve none. Having DGB dampen CES whilst CKD kills alibis CKD if CES is watched, and it looks like CES has made a claim which leaves open the possibility of contradiction, when actually there is none.

[The Fonz]

IF CKD is the killer, DrippingGoofball is almost certainly aligned with him. There seems to be absolutely no rhyme nor reason for killing Yvonne, and risking an Adelewatch, when a CKD scumgroup could safely kill DGB and leave no possibility of detection, and leave a widely suspected town player in Yvonne alive as a potential counterwagon today. Certainly, I think I would have supported an Yvonnewagon.

This logic seems tortured to me. One reason for killing a watcher is...THEY'RE A WATCHER!!!!

But killing puts the town at LyLo, and killing DGB has no possibility of detection. Whereas killing Yvonne carries risk (of what may actually have happened). Scum didn't need to take risks last night.

Scum was in good shape last night. They didnt need to do a kill. We gave them a night and they chose to kill the watcher who was least likely to have Fonz protection (or who they knew wouldnt have Fonz protection).

True. But there remains the possibility of an Adelewatch, whereas there is no such possibility if DGB is killed. And if no kill occurs, and DGB is jailed, who do you think is going to be scum suspect numero uno today? Killing DGBtown has no possible downside. As I said last night, the worst case scenario in trying to kill DGB is the status quo.

So this idea that DGB must be scum because she's alive doesn't follow. There was a good chance CKD would jail DGB. There was a possibility of CKD being watched.

The idea isn't that DGB surviving is surprising

in general

. IF CKD is town, sure, there's plenty of possibility that CKD would have jailed her, and that might keep scum away. I'm also confused as to what you mean about the possibility of CKD being watched. That doesn't seem, to me, to offer any possibility of evidence either way?

The rhyme and reason of leaving Yvonne alive is...ya didnt know who she'd be watching! (and you may or may not have known if she'd be motivated).

But if DGB is the target, IT DOESN'T MATTER! SHE CAN'T BE WATCHED!

And as for why should CKD do the kill - well, it seems pretty clear to me that if DGB was scum, with anyone else, she'd be the one doing the kills for a variety of reasons. She's less risk averse. We think that she's unwatchable. And other people need to generate an alibi more.

But I don't but a CKD and DGB MUST be scum together argument at all.

Except that 'we' didn't think she was unwatchable. Well, I didn't, and it had been clarified by the mod in-thread on day one.

[The Fonz]

*We didn't think she was unwatchable in the sense you appear to have been getting at, ie can't be seen in the act of killing.

[The Fonz]

But that argument emphatically is not 'both DGB and CKD are scum.' The argument was 'IF ckd is scum, DGB is extremely likely to be his buddy.'

[The Fonz]

But killing puts the town at LyLo, and killing DGB has no possibility of detection. Whereas killing Yvonne carries risk (of what may actually have happened). Scum didn't need to take risks last night.

This is an argument against Adele. Killing Yvonne carried no risk to her group last night. But killing DGB risked a jail cell, which again is of little risk but greater than targeting Yvonne which would take out a high benefit town role with no chance of being caught or protected.

You're correct. Although then you get into the wifom of why an Adele scumgroup would make a kill that reflects specifically on her.

Is that not the full implication of Fonz's argument? That DGB must be scum?

No, it is not, and it is clear that it is not. This is a strawman.

[The Fonz]

I think it was the other way, actually, Adele.

His argument also ignores that people consider DGB scummy.

I don't believe it does. In fact, I believe it

requires

it.

So, this course of action has absolutely no downside compared with DGB killing and CKD actually jailing CES. It has the advantage that a watcher's result on CKD is less likely to be believed, imho, than one on DGB, who a couple of people including the NK victim suspected yesterday, and had obvious motive.

[The Fonz]

K. Can I vote CKD now?

Only if you actually believe it's the best course, or are scum, as ever.

[The Fonz]

What, and indeed, the fuck?

[The Fonz]

Seriously, what the hell are you playing at! If either of you is town, for the love of god unvote!

[The Fonz]

What part of 'I'll commit to a lynch when I think we've damn well gotten enough info out of this day, which isn't now by a long way' do you not?

[The Fonz]

cicero, whilst I think the 'hammer trap' is not a move I'd expect scum to pull, it is nonetheless

incredibly dumb

for town to pull. Please don't do that ever again.

[The Fonz]

Well, I'm absolutely positive that Fonz is scum if CKD is scum at this point. There's actually no way for that not to be true. I hung out a hammer for the scum and Fonz played the long game. It's simply impossible for them not to be connected in that fashion. Either Fonz is town or Fonz is CKD's scumbuddy.

Me-scum would have to imply CKDscum, yes.

But it doesn't work in reverse. Fonztown has obvious reason not to quickhammer too, and I don't see how that little to-and-fro explicitly rules out anyone else from being CKD's buddy. CES was already anti-CKD, and shaft.ed wasn't around. You'd have to be exceptionally ballsy scum, of course. But then you'd have to be exceptionally ballsy town in the converse scenario. Basically, you've got a pair the size of Neptune either way.

[The Fonz]

I hadn't really thought about it. Each, I suppose.

[The Fonz]

No. If you are scum and CKD is town, your move there was to hammer, because you win the game.

But you did not hammer.

So that means if CKD is scum, you ARE scum.

No, because you're ignoring the situation where CKD is scum and I'm town, because as town I won't quicklynch either way.

Cicero, I have to ask: are you actually playing drunk?

[The Fonz]

No. I'm not making any inferences about CKDs alignment from yours. I'm making an inference of your alignment from his, if the game continues after (and in the event that) we lynch him.

Unlike your convoluted WIFOM logic, mine is pretty clear. Fonz scum would have hammered CKD town.

Yes, and what would fonztown have done in that scenario, an essential part of the town condition being Fonz is unaware of CKD's alignment?

[The Fonz]

My head hurts. It's not just me, surely?

[The Fonz]

We know the following.

┐(Fonzscum^CKDTown)

Nothing more.

[The Fonz]

Cicero: As far as I can tell he has not been available to perform a kill on any given night. On N1 he targeted me. On N2 he knew of Adele's jailing before it was public. Since notice of Adele's watching failures are not given to her until minutes before the Day breaks it is highly unlikely she would have been able to inform Cicero. Thus the only way Cicero knew about Adele being jailed was either because he targeted her or CKD is scum with him. On N3 he seems to have targeted The Fonz and I have a PM containing the dice roll by which he made this decision (I can post it in thread if anyone wants to check its legitimacy). Thus unless Cicero is scum with The Fonz and he got lucky on rolling his dice in his PM to me he was not available to perform the kill last night either. Conclusion Cicero is very unlikely to have performed a NK, this is despite his ability being quite useful for performing a NK and creating an alibi if scum by either "networking" with fellow scum or "attempting to network" with the NK target.

In the scenario where all of me, you and CKD are town, sure. If either you or CKD is scum, from my perspective, cicero is free to kill on a particular night. I don't believe networking a buddy on night one is optimal play, however.

CES: No Night actions so no way to confirm what he's "doing" at night.

Risky choice for NK as he cannot excuse his way out of a watching.

Was available to make the kill on N1 and N2 but was jailed by CKD if Adele is scum. I personally believe the choice of a ZONEACE kill N1 leans in favor of CES based on TSQ's attempts to paint ZA as scummy.

Not being funny here, but who can? The only possibilities i can see are the watchers and cicero, and even then, if they're the only ones seen at the scene of a mafia kill, they're obvscum. (In the case of a watcher/watcher confrontation, at least one is scum).

DGB: No confirmable night actions. Claimed to have targeted Gorgon N1, CES N2 and noone N3. Was likely to be jailed N3 so possible scum wouldn't have attempted to use her for the NK. Useful abilities for scum so valuable to keep alive. ZA kill N1 would be potntially suboptimal play for DGB scumgroup.

Potentially, though it also depends on who else is scum.

Adele/Cicero/CES: N1 Adele or CES would have to make the kill. Cicero would be the logical choice for the NK of this group as Adele and CES would both have no business targeting anyone N1, but I can confirm cicero targeted me.

Again, there is basically no-one, regardless of role, that can be seen visiting a mafia NK and live.

N2 CES would be required to have killed Mathcam in order for cicero to know that Adele was jailed. Seems odd that he would actually network with a scum buddy and not simply use it as an alibi while performing a NK.

This is a decent point. If you're not going to be doing the kill, it's probably optimal to have a town player as your alibi.

N3 cicero again has a confirmed alibi, and CES was jailed so Adele would have to make the kill and be prepared to manufacture a claim. Going last in claim chain would have helped, but quite easy for her to have claimed a watch on Fonz as cicero could supply this information. In this case claim on Yvonne would have been partially improvised. Summary don't find this grouping likely.

THe caveat here is that it's entirely possible Adelescum had 'saw cicero targetting Fonz' lined up as a safeclaim, but when finding herself last had the opportunity to frame CKD. This group does kinda make sense in an odd way- imagine the scenario where scum cicero demonstrates that town fonz is not scum with Adele, in order to make Adele seem less likely to be lying. I don't actually think it's likely, though. I've gotten a pretty town read off cic today.

Adele/cicero/DGB: N1 Adele or DGB have to make the kill. Again I don't know why 1) cicero wouldn't make the kill in this instance and 2) why the tracker would be targeted when they have a tracker immune player available in DGB.

Again, I don't see why you wouldn't have someone who CAN get himself an alibi do so, and someone who couldn't be alibied in any case do the kill.

N2 DGB would have to be the killer. Choice of Mathcam makes the watcher an unlikely problem. Can also reasonably expect no Doc protect on Cam. DGB is a good choice for the kill as Adele would have to manufacture targets while cicero has his alibi production.

True, although you have the DGB-likely-jailing issue.

Notice that cicero in this pairing would have to have generally targeted Adele for networking to know that CKD jailed her. Seems a bit odd for scum to do. N3, cicero again has a confirmed alibi in The Fonz. DGB is a likely jailer target so Adele would have to make the kill. As above she would have knowledge of The Fonz if needed for her claim. Switching to Yvonne would likely be impromptu.

True. Like you said earlier, I wouldn't, as scum in cicero's position, target buddies on days I wasn't killing. Save them for the days you are.

Adele/CES/DGB: N1 noone in this scum group would have any business targeting anybody. However, no night actions are confirmable so everyone would be available for the kill. Seems as though CES would be my likely choice for as Adele would likely be kept around by the town for utility and DGB could be useful for scum down the road.

Any of these make as much sense as any other, to be honest.

N2 Adele is jailed so either CES or DGB have to make the kill. DGB claims a targeting of CES, seems a little weird for scum buddies to target one another to make an "alibi," it's not as if CES knew of anyone targeting him. So CES or DGB could have made the kill. N3 CES is jailed, and DGB would have to be worried about jailing. Adele then would have to make the kill and thus would have to completely fabricate watching results. This seems incredibly NOT worth the risk. However, I do think it's valid that she could deduce I had targeted Yvonne since she was not motivated and that The Fonz would target her in order to pass on Doc powers.

Er... no. She has no way of knowing whether I or Yvonne has been motivated, until I claimed. However, once I claimed it was a fair deduction.

The assumption in the above that I'm most worried about is that the scum were worried that DGB would be jailed. If they didn't care all too much about getting a kill logged than DGB would still be a viable choice to perform the NK even though she may end up jailed. It's not as if the town passing on powers would be of any detriment to Adelescum. In fact receiving Doc powers would allow her to fabricate targets easier than her current restriction to watcher night choices.

Yes and no. Prior to last night, getting stopped was a genuine worry. LAst night, however, scum doesn't lose that much by having DGB jailed- since she was a reasonable NK target as well as a reasonable NKer.

Anyway, none of the scum pairings above look stellar. Cicero has alibi's on all nights although it'd be very logical for him to perform a kill while creating a false alibi with a scumbuddy (unless his scumbuddies are likely watcher targets). I'd posit Adele/CES/DGB as most likely. And I realize that I'm a far better candidate than the others discussed above.

Conclusion, I think this analysis detracts from the idea that Adele is scum.

This is a fair conclusion, but only from shaft.ed's own point of view, if he is town.

Due to potential conflicts with roleblocking etc, I do not inform any player that they have been motivated until all night choices have been submitted - then the motivation confirmation is provided, and 24 hours allowed for the submission of the motivated choice. Motivation does not allow an additional kill to be submitted, and submitting a kill prevents powers being used at all on a given night.

This certainly changes things. So Adele scum wouldn't have known if she was getting motivated or if Yvonne was. And we already know she doesn't find out about The Fonz targeting until Dawn. I guess she would have been expecting an incoming round of motivation. Don't know how that bodes for Adelescum wanting to target Yvonne.

The conclusion from this is that if Adelescum wished to perform the kill herself, she would have to have two fake watchings prepared just in case. If she's scum with cicero, then she has 'saw cicero targetting fonz' as one, but I'm not sure I can see any other claim that is safe. She'd basically be committing to claiming to have caught Yvonne's killer redhanded from the get-go. In that case, CKD is pretty much the only option for a framing i think? She'd have to rely on CKD being sufficiently cowed by the criticism yesterday to avoid the power roles. That's not a horrible assumption for adelescum there, i don't think, but it does really limit her options.

CKD if you are going to throw accusations of me being scum around please back them up. My play N1 was very much not in the scums best interest if I'm paired with Adele. My options would have been 1) target the Nk'd tracker, a bit obvious but won't cause any issues and won't make my partner have to falsify results, 2) target the Doc who would likely pass his power on to my partner which is a much much better situation than having to fabricate investigation results, or 3) create a double watcher who will force my partner into fabricating watching results each night.

This is a reasonably decent point. Motivating me seems to be an obviously superior play for a shaft.ed/Adele scumteam than motivating Yvonne.

Since shaft.ed is the one providing most of the analysis, I'll look over potential Shaft.ed/Adele pairings in the near future.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and:

I understand, but unless his scumbuddies are bus'ing him, which is quite reasonable given that he was fingered in the NK, then there are too many people willing to lynch him.

Unless scum are doing something that is entirely reasonable for them to do in this situation, he's likely town?

[The Fonz]

Your scum pairings are fairly obvious.

DGB for sure, then one of CES and shaft.ed. If I had to gamble the game on one other player being town right now, it'd be cicero. If he's scum, he's played possibly the weirdest scumgame I've ever seen.

[The Fonz]

DGB looks for all the world like she's waiting for the signal to co-ordinate a quicklynch.

vote: Adele

I'm calling Adele, DGB and shaft.ed.

[The Fonz]

Didn't you say shaft.ed was your number one most trusted player a couple hours ago?

[The Fonz]

ok, so shafted and DGB are both not scum...jesus christ I am at a loss.

You mean, 'are not both scum.' I guess if they won't quicklynch given this much opportunity, then my gut reaction to that little passage was wrong.

It also suggests (though doesn't prove) that the pair of them are not scum with you either. Hmmm.

unvote

[The Fonz]

ok, so shafted and DGB are both not scum...jesus christ I am at a loss.

You mean, 'are not both scum.' I guess if they won't quicklynch given this much opportunity, then my gut reaction to that little passage was wrong.

It also suggests (though doesn't prove) that the pair of them are not scum with you either. Hmmm.

unvote

I don't know if I'd go both ways with that Fonz, you were here to move your vote if things got ugly. But it would suggest that DGB and I are either both town, or one of us is town and the other is scum.

That's why I said 'suggest' and not 'prove.' They clearly aren't both scum with Adele, since CES isn't here to unvote, nor frankly likely to.

[The Fonz]

Simple. If either of you were scum (without CKD) and your buddy were present, then you'd quicklynch. Ergo, you're not both scum with Adele.

[The Fonz]

Well, as it stands, as soon as cicero shows up is another round.

[The Fonz]

DGB looks for all the world like she's waiting for the signal to co-ordinate a quicklynch.

vote: Adele

I'm calling Adele, DGB and shaft.ed.

Two out of three ain't bad.

unvote, vote: curiouskarmadog

[The Fonz]

so FOnz, Adele, DGB?

Yes.

Apologies for stringing this out longer than it had to.

When I saw cicero's L-1 yesterday, my immediate reaction was 'scumtrap.' It was legitimately really, really close. When I posted my 'unvote now' post, as soon as it came up, cicero's unvote was right there beside it. I posted before him by a matter of ten seconds or less.

I figured if I messed up, and cicero unvoted, that confirms me and Adele as scum and CKD as town. No need to risk that, when i could 'confirm' myself and have the game pretty much in the bag anyway.

[The Fonz]

See above. I had a window of about ten seconds.

[The Fonz]

No, I did. Scumbuddy alibi.

DGB did, however, submit it on night two.

[The Fonz]

Here's our night discussions. You may note that we didn't exactly understand the night action/motivation rules either.

I'd also note that this game was a lot closer than the perfect scum win result would suggest. If Adele had gotten lynched today, I'd have had no excuse to survive the night, so we'd be facing at best DGB in endgame. And i really felt, midway through today, that that was going to happen. Fortunately, cicero's gambit allowed me to 'prove' i wasn't Adele's buddy, and all the most plausible Adele scumgroups had me in them.

[The Fonz]

http://www.quicktopic.com/41/H/kN3ncATGpEGab

[The Fonz]

Yes, but I was only cleared by the non-hammer. Before that, I was deeply worried.

It was a tough setup for town anyway. Four scum with no cop and no vigilante is challenging. I had given the game up as likely lost some time ago.

Bear in mind the town did win the previous two smalltowns fairly comfortably. This is the first ever scum win in this setup.

[The Fonz]

Perhaps it's each player's own paranoia. I certainly felt the longer that day went on, the consensus was moving away from an Yvonne or CKD lynch, and toward a DGB one. Then the no-lynch stopped that in its tracks.

And of course, the part about leaving it up to us to decide whether killing benefitted us or not was absolutely true. The funny thing is, in the past I've got lynched a few times for opposing no-lynch/massclaim or some such ill-though-through town gambit, when I was scum, and I was only opposing them because I genuinely thought them anti-town!

[The Fonz]

I actually thought I was hammering, I didn't realise she'd voted Adele, not CKD. I only noticed when DGB then had to unvote Adele to hammer.

[The Fonz]

Well,I actually missed basically that whole part of the discussion.


This has been an awesomely

fun

scumteam to be part of, though.

[The Fonz]

And who did Yvonne watch last night?

[The Fonz]

First time I managed to figure out the entire scum team and I get killed. Well, I mostly had Adele on gut though.

True, and no small part of why you did die. Though do recall you 'figured' out the scumteam basically by pointing the finger at the two players who attacked you most. It won't always be that obvious- obviously a difficult counterfactual, but I think Fonztown would have had Yvonne as suspect no1 yesterday too. (I wasn't kidding about hating the term 'easy lynch.' Ask anyone).

Which reminds me... shaft.ed- we targetted the tracker and not the watcher because we needed the watcher alive to justify my continual living through the night. Without the threat of watching, doc living beyond night two would look seriously dodgy. With two watchers, it was expected.