Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 2 - GAME OVER

[dahen]

Prodded. I lost my notes in the crash and has since preferred looking at other games. Now I'm back, though.

[dahen]

Thanks for the prod.

I'll do as I usually do and go through what's happened of significance so far and then give my view. Stand by:

p1:
nothing of interest

p2:
Ok, Dragon has two votes. CD doesn't count since he's voting himself as always.
Then lots of talk about getting something to talk about.
Alko then goes for Ecto, one of the voters for Dragon.
CD follows, but only with suspicion, not a vote.
Ecto votes CD for jumping on the joke.
CD apologizes.
BM goes for Ecto.
As I see it, we at least have two candidates here: Ecto or CD.
Then TCS votes for BM for misuse of Omgus. I don't like that. He should have put some fire on the Ecto-CD-fight.
Jack votes CD and says he wants to speed lynch.
Dragon takes the bait (was it a bait?) and votes Jack back.

p3:
CD then accuses Ecto for his over-defense.
Ecto accuses CD back. This is as often two townies as not. So let's look for others jumping in.
alko votes CD
Ecto goes for alko for voting without putting pressure. I agree with this vote.
Dragon's comment and vote on BM I don't understand.
TCS votes BM.

unaccuse,accuse:dahen
What the hell kind of notes could you have had on this game?

I posted this in all clue games. Most of my notes were from clue 1, but I know I had something from Clue 2 as well. Sorry, but I don't remember it.
Jack goes for TCS.
Funny how there are more votes now when the CD+Ecto-battle has cooled down.

At this point, my vote would be on Alko, but I have some more pages to read and I'll see if I can find a little more founded theory.

[dahen]

Continuing...

p4
BM votes TCS back
CES pops in a vote for CD
Ancalagon votes TCS silently
BT goes for BM because it's fun. He should find a better argument at this point.
TCS says he didn't intend to force a claim.
BM claims cop.
TCS believes the claim and unvotes.
Dragon votes TCS silently at this point. TCS is an easy target after getting forth the claim. I'll watch Dragon.
BT unvotes.
BT worries about MBL not unvoting or posting and major FOSes him. I think that's too strong.
TCS follows BT's vote.

BT's FOS of MBL didn't feel right. On the other hand, I had no problem with TCS following. And Alko has been quiet. More to come.

[dahen]

Exactly. I dont see why they are up in MBL's case about pitching some unknown random variable in the game. (so far as we know)

Well, I guess you can see it like this: Say it's 50% that it kills you and 50% that you get some fancy power. Would you take the chance?

If you were SK, you would have a 50% chance of losing right away.
If you were scum, your team would suffer quite badly from being killed.
If you were town, your team would suffer, but not that badly.

If the soup would give you a fancy power, you would benefit from it no matter what role you are, but if any information about it leaks out, then you would probably be helping town the most.

This reasonin say to me that scum would probably be more inclined to throw it away. Of course WIFOM applies as usual. Players that prefer to be alive at all costs will probably be more inclined to pitch it, while curious players would drink it.

My point is that the discussion is valid, and that I don't like when people are turning down such a discussion. Maybe it's a bad idea to lycnh solely based on the soup issue, but to disregard from what's happening; no, that's generally not good.

I realize I have posted way too little in this game, and it's not that fair for me to vote Ancalagon for being quiet, but could you please explain your posts Anca, they don't make sense to me.

mini-fos: Ancalagon

[dahen]

Really? And where exactly did you get the information that the soup has a 50% chance of giving the recipient a power?

Are you trying to misunderstand me? I think the soup has 100% chance of having a certain effect. Since I don't know what the effect is, I find it as likely as not that it is dangerous vs. beneficial, hence 50%. If you find any alternative more likely, just shift the numbers a bit and read my post again.

[dahen]

I'm travelling (in Mississippi) with limited connectivity. This game will have to wait.

[dahen]

CD: Do you mean "the same role", or "that role"?

[dahen]

I've been prodded. I will not forget about this game, but neither will I focus on it when we have an end-game situation in Clue 3 and a dead-line in Clue 1.

[dahen]

Well, now it should be night soon in both other games. Erg0, please explain your vote for CD.

I'm starting a reread.

[dahen]

As I recall, In the 2nd ending to the movie it was Mrs. Peacock who was guilty. Mass claim and lynch Mrs. Peacock?

Actually, I think this should be thought over again. Clue 3 seems to follow the movie ending very well. So even if there are some additions (like the cop being guilty here, we could use the information).

Scum would benefit from the information if there is a connection between power roles and certain characters, but I'm not so sure there is.

We KNOW that TCS chose to fake claim his character. Why would he do that unless he really didn't want us to know that he was the cop?

that was an unnecessary claim by billy. If he was the roleblocker he could have hammered tcs and not claimed. I doubt him somewhat, he could be scum bussing his partner.

This is interesting, but would require them to agree on claiming the other guy's character when in a bad spot to be able to get the hammer.

My primary suspects after this reread are Ancalagon, al, and ectomancer

I'd say exactly one scum here.

More thoughts: I don't like MBL refusing to have the soup.
I've written that one of Ecto and CD is scum based on TCS' behavior before he was caught. I've got to try to remember what I meant with this.

But since Anca-Skruffs and Alko are revealed town and I don't think TCS would put three townies on his suspect list, I'm going to

accuse Ectomancer

This fits well with how quick he jumped on BM for voting me.

[dahen]

I can't really let it go - Why would TCS claim to be another character than he was? He has obviously looked up the characters in the movie and chosen one for the claim. Didn't he realize that since we have 12 players and Mr Body was dead night 0 (or was he, he might still be around, since the first death was faked), we really should have all characters already taken?

suspect BT

[dahen]

BT has already been investigated and was found innocent.

Oh, sorry, I didn't get that far in my reread.

unsuspect BT

[dahen]

Ergo? Where are you?

[dahen]

Erg0: You are right that scum made exactly these night kills. But they were made the same night, and I don't think a communicating scum group would be able to make two kills. Do you?

TCS was "mafia". I assume that there are more than one member in the mafia family and that one of the kills were mafia. The other kill I don't know, it could be SK, vig, or even another mafia family.

Let's say that TCS did plan for this to happen and deliberately put three townies on the list. That would require the mafia to kill two of them in order to put this much pressure on the third. And why do that instead of trying to hit power roles? Of course it could serve as a backup theory in case they didn't have a clue about power roles or everything could be a coincidence without any planning from the mafia.

Erg0, You said you read too much into CD. Do you still hold him as the most likely scum?

[dahen]

unaccuse

I need to think that over. You are close to lynch and tries to convince us to vote a confirmed innocent. My only problem is that I think your reasoning is fair.

Now, TCS was titled mafia, not "mafia goon", but it's still possible that we have a godfather around and if we do, BT is a good candidate.

[dahen]

I liked Ecto's theory.
There is something funny with claiming to be another name in a game with limited possible names.

Scenario 1:
TCS had a plan to get BT-scum cleared by claiming his name (this is Ecto's theory).
Requirements:
1A: Believing TCS would be lynched anyway.
1B: Believing BT would counterclaim (he did, could well be planned)
1C: Believeing BT would feel more like town (probable, but if BT is GF, is that then necessary, since an investigation would clear him?)

Scenairo 2:
TCS had a plan to get Singing Telegram Girl accused by claiming that name (this is the opposite case in Ecto's theory).
Requirements:
2A: Believing TCS would be lynched anyway.
2B: Believing STG would counterclaim (could not be planned, but it would be likely)
2C: Believing somebody would come up with Ecto's theory (could be planned, meaning Ecto is scum, or unplanned)

Scenario 3:
TCS believed the claim would NOT make him lynched.
Requirements:
3A: Believing TCS would survive.
3B: Believing that claiming STG would be better for scum than claiming The Cop (this means that scum is afraid of town linking names to alignment).
3C: Believing that STG would be a safe claim. (This requires that there would be no STG in this game. In Clue 3, this is exactly the name that was missing, so it's possible and would explain why TCS chose this.

I need to check on the state of Clue 3 when TCS claimed STG in Clue 2. If he had reasons to believe that there would be no STG in clue 3 and therefore not in Clue 2, then it makes Scenario 3 quite possible.

I think Scenario 1 is the most likely case, even though, as C_D points out, Ecto is wrong regarding the timing.

[dahen]

The question follows, did he choose a specific role for a reason, or was he just hoping he could find a role not being used?

Ecto, why didn't you elaborate on the second part of your sentence? See my scenario 3 and comment, please.

[dahen]

If it's correct that BT went after BM before BM claimed that BT was his target, then that would speak against Ecto's theory. However, it's not impossible for a GF to act scummy on purpose to get an investigation and be cleared until town realizes that there is a GF, which could well be when it's too late for town.

There are several points in BT's post that I don't agree with. I'll state them in my next post.

[dahen]

I'm here. Sorry, I've had some hectic days.
I'll tell you what I was referring to. However, it's notable how BM jumps in with a comment about me without trying to make a case against me. This is his post where he voted me, the vote that he now confirms:

wtf?
endgame situation in Clue 3? You've GOT to be kidding me. Rolling Eyes

Unvote, Vote: Dahen

I'll split this post in two.
This post is only about soup.
Since I thought that there might be a second soup in the game, the information would be very important. Even if it was 60/40 odds of poison vs. protection, I'd say eat it, since in the case of protection, we get two protects and in the case of poison we would get one death. 40*2 > 60*1.

Of course you can see it in other ways, even though I will think it is scummy to prefer to keep town in the dark in order to possibly avoid poison. I can understand a cop not taking the risk, but a townie definately should.

I find it odd that you are retroactively trying to hold that my position in regards to the soup was somehow scummy when you held effectively the exact same position at the time.

I interpreted this at first as if BT meant that town in general hold his position, which I found completely false. The only other person in favor of pitching the soup seemed to be Ectomancer. I then realized that "you" in BT's post referred to Ecto, so I'll trash the part I was about to submit about this speaking against BT.

This is a good point. Ecto, you realize that you have made a complete turn-around regarding the soup, don't you? This definately speaks against Ecto.

The soup argument says that Ecto, BT and MBL were scummy. Let's see if BM thinks I'm scummy now for mentioning MBL here since he was unlynchable and therefore more likely pro-town.

[dahen]

This is my main point towards BT's post (BM: This does not mean we should all wagon BT now):

It would make no sense for me to attack a claimed Cop in the game if I was scum and investigative immune.

As a GF, I would definately try to get the cop's attention in order to get an investigation of myself. This means A) false information to the town, B) lack of true information to the town. The GF is NOT more important generally than a goon. The ONLY advantage the GF has over goons is the ability to get away with an investigation. As soon as the cop dies, the extra importance of the GF is gone.

I don't know what TCS was thinking. However, claiming your scum partner's rolename is a bit telegraphing, even for TCS.

Sorry for not understanding the word "telegraphing" in this context, but I definitely can see reasons to try to create confusion as dying scum.

If I was a Godfather I certainly wouldn't have wanted to lynch BM until I knew for sure who the target was.

See my reasoning above. You would sure have reasons: 1) You would want BM dead. 2) You would want an investigation from him. It does not matter for BT-scum who was the target.

I was taking a big risk that his lynch would backfire and get me lynched if I was scum, a risk I would absolutely have no reason to take as an investigative immune mafioso.

If we lynched him and there are no more cops, your immunity means nothing. Sure, you would be at risk but you would have protected your goon (assuming there is one). Also, "risk" implies a chance of actually pulling it off and staying alive.

This might be swayed by the crazy nature of Clue 3, but I just don't think we have 2 2-person mafias in the game

Well, I don't think we have that because it's uncommon, but I think it's possible and I don't understand why Clue 3 in particular would speak against it.

If that is the case, WHY THE HELL WOULD TCS SET THE GF UP FOR THE HAMMER AND NOT THE OTHER PLAYER? He had to have known that the possibility of his partner hammering could give him some heat. If so, he'd be dumb not to "set-up" the lynch with the lesser valued player.

You say that he should have know it generated some heat. I don't agree. I think that IF he did this, he did it because town would be more inclined to believe the poor guy that was almost set-up by the mafia by the claim. But assume that you are correct and that it would generate heat, then BT would be a very good target for an investigation. This investigation would be beneficial to scum if BT is a GF or at least OK if BT is town. However, it would be horrible if BT is goon.

Lastly, TCS would have been taking an enormous risk that I wouldn't hammer him

Why is this a risk? If you would choose not to hammer him, then you would do so because you would think it's beneficial to scum. Why is that a risk from TCS' stanpoint?

These are my points against BT's reasoning.
My strategy is to find everything that is not right and then compare what fits together in the best way combined which is most likely from the setup.

Next, I will look at Ecto's soup-turnaround and the circumstances of his quick vote at the start of this day. I will also try to see where I end up if I assume TCS thought he would stay alive but didn't want to claim "The Cop" (i.e. setup speculation [yes, I like it]).

[dahen]

BT, thanks for a well-written post.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but I still end up with some WIFOM.
First, you say that you would not behave as you did if you were GF. My strategy as scum is normally more towards trying to play exactly the way I do as a townie.
Then, you also say that TCS would not do A or B because it would lead to heat on the counter-claiming player and that C is good partly because it would also generate heat on the counter-claiming player.

I would say that this needs for somebody like Ecto to step in with a case for the heat to be generated, and it took quite a while. But I must agree that some light is cast on the player and that it is a gamble. Did the cop investigate you after the hammer? In that case TCS could in case C force an innocent investigation in C, which would make it more likely than D.

I still haven't checked on the timing compared to the name claims in Clue 3. And neither have I done much else in my mafia games lately. But I'll be back with more.

[dahen]

I'll re-read tomorrow. Please keep it day until then.

[dahen]

Could someone be kind enough to give some summary views on this game? I've reread half of the posts from the soup issue and forward now, but my head is a mess at the moment.

[dahen]

I am prodded. First I am waiting for somebody to post thoughts from the re-reads you guys said you would do. Secondly, I am awaiting night in Clue 1 (which is now in twilight) to see if I can draw some conclusions from that game into this one.

[dahen]

This is interesting. In the note I wrote a while ago I put Ecto and CD as top suspects.
I asked you for something summarizing. Do you mean I actually have to do it myself?