Therefore,
Mini #509: Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers, Game Over!
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This doesn't have anything to do with probability. You don't know how many scums are in the game, and even if you knew, this argument doesn't make sense at all. If there was one scum on the wagon, that means two scum (assuming there are 3 scum total, which seems to be the usual number in mini's) weren't on the wagon, and that means the people not wagonning have a higher probability of being scum. I also don't see why the possibility of a scum being on the wagon makes you wary of the wagon itself. Do you honestly believe anyone on the wagon was ever intent on lynching Avalon? Because I'm pretty sure you don't. Let's face it: Votes have no practical value whatsoever if they're not actually used to lynch someone.Mirth wrote:I was aware that it wasn't a completely serious bandwagon, I just happen to not have a sense of humor. Especially when probability tells me that at least one person who was on that bandwagon is probably scum.-
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Lynch all Liars is a way to prevent people from gambiting in the future, pretty much in the same way you wanted to lynch Avalon to get rid of the jokewagon. However, these LAL lynches often result in mislynches, and LAL is by no means a viable strategy.Peers wrote:What happened to Lynch All Liars?
I'll do a quick reread, and make my list of suspicious people.-
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Okay, here's my list.
Scummy
Originality- Originality's posts have been vague all the time, and he seems to be trying hard to falsely link and distance himself from people. His defense against the accusations was sometimes contradicting, and using sarcasm when attacked is scummy in my book.
Peers- Peers has been acting scummy overall, his backtracking after the 'role' claim was awful, and attacking FlameAxe for a supposedly genuine mistake doesn't look so good either. Peers sarcasticly defending himself, and some of his posts are contradicting.
Jmar- Jmar hasn't been really helpful, and I actually think PWS brought up a decent point against him. I also get the impression that he's somehow linked to Peers when reading some of his posts. Apart from that, Jmar is mostly high up the list because of gut.
Mirth- Mirth is trying too hard to stay away from any bandwagon. IIRC, Mirth hasn't voted anyone all game (except for a random vote).
Blight- Blight hasn't been very active, but when he does post, he seems to be bandwagonning most of the time.
Killerbob- Killerbob's hardly posted, but the posts he did make seem decent.
Dybeck- Overall, I get a townish feeling from Dybeck, but pointing out a powerclaim and some minor points give me a strange feeling.
Unright- I don't like post 177, and the wishy-washy voting, but overall I get a townish feeling from his posts. The fact quite some people suddenly put him high on their list also is a point to his advantage, IMO.
PlaysWithSquirrels- He's been acting townish. Stimulating discussion in a good was, as opposed to Mirth.
Flameaxe- The only strike against him is post 39. Apart from that, he's been acting townish.
UltimaAvalon- Most townish player.
Townish-
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A liedybeck wrote:It doesn't really apply in this case - because I don't think a real lie has been told.hasbeen told, but it's not a lie that's worthy of a lynch, and in this case, it's not even scummy. Thinking LAL doesn't apply or thinking LAL does apply but isn't a tactic that's always good is a matter of opinion, I guess.-
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I don't think Peers would've ever said this if he wasn't in fact a townie, and I believe his claim. He completely messed up, but I wouldn't want to lynch him at this point. I'd rather look at Jmar, who believed that Peers' statement was hypothetical at the time he posted it, but now that Peers is close to being lynched, sees it as a contradiction.Peers wrote:It was hypothetical. I reserve the right to claim Putty as my role in the future.
Vote JMar.
Could someone please unvote Peers so we don't wind up accidentally ending the day early?-
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I'm sorry, but I still can't see how Peers could be a scum, and I don't know how anyone could still think so at this point. I know he hasn't been acting like a townie should, but I think scums would react in much another way than Peers did. I'm not going to vote him, nor would I like to see him being lynched.
The case against Jmar isn't very concrete, but still his posts resemble those of a scum much more than Peers'. He's been trying to stay under the radar, and his L-1 vote (IIRC) on Peers was very opportunistic, in my opinion.
Mod:I won't be able to post a lot in the next few days. Sorry for that. I hope I'll be less busy when day 2 starts."This topic needs more CESc." --Vi-
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That was because UA unvoted in a quote. At that point, it wasn't sure if the mod would count the unvote, and I think saying it's L-2 while the mod could very well count it as a L-1 is scummy.jmar wrote:You don't remember correctly. When I voted, I said it put him at L-2 if I counted correctly. Then you said it was L-1 and I was wrong. Then we discussed it and came to the conclusion it was L-2 (though Peers kept saying it was almost "hammer" for some reason).-
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You didn't go head-to-head with Peers. Me and PWS voted for you when Peers was almost lynched, and now there's a deadline one of you is probably going to get lynched. That's why you guys vote each other. [quote="jmar"jmar wrote:As for your other reasons, I wouldn't say going head-to-head with Peers is really staying "under the radar." I mean, if Peers ends up being town for some reason I'm pretty much a dead man.
You admit the case against me isn't very concrete, but you're voting anyways. I don't quite understand that logic, but hey, you're free to vote as you please. All I can do is respond.[/quote]So does the case have to be concrete for me to vote you? I said before it's mostly gut that makes me think you're scum, and I think that's a perfectly valid reason.-
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You didn't go head-to-head with Peers. Me and PWS voted for you when Peers was almost lynched, and now there's a deadline one of you is probably going to get lynched. That's why you guys vote each other.jmar wrote:As for your other reasons, I wouldn't say going head-to-head with Peers is really staying "under the radar." I mean, if Peers ends up being town for some reason I'm pretty much a dead man.
So does the case have to be concrete for me to vote you? I said before it's mostly gut that makes me think you're scum, and I think that's a perfectly valid reason.[/quote]jmar wrote: You admit the case against me isn't very concrete, but you're voting anyways. I don't quite understand that logic, but hey, you're free to vote as you please. All I can do is respond.
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Fixed quote tags. Sorry for the double post.-
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No basically anybody. The only people I'd want to lynch today are you and Originality. You were the two on top of my scumlist (with Peers, back then), and the two of you still are. I never said I'd want to lynch anybody, so stop putting words in my mouth.jmar wrote:Of course it's okay for him to be of that opinion, but his defense of him and his willingness to lynch basically anybody other than Peers is what makes me suspicious personally.-
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I already said I didn't have much time right now to post a lot, so I won't be able to make a case or defend someone properly. Aside from that, I already told it was mostly gut. Peers' play fits perfectly with that of a vanilla townie, and I see no reason why relatively inexperienced scums would draw this much attention to themselves on day one (I'm referring to the flame between Peers and FlameAxe/UA. I also said I was wary because people jumped on his wagon so fast. I just haven't got the time to do a PBPA, but I think I've given enough reason not to vote Peers right now.Mirth wrote:Not a lack of information. CES is saying he is convinced Peers is town because he "can't imagine scum playing that way." The problem here isn't that CES is defending Peers, it's how he chooses to defend Peers. He's making a blanket statement that he doesnt think Peers is scum even though Peers isn't playing well. He's not trying to justify this statement, he just keeps repeating it. Look back at his posts and notice that he doesn't try to back-up his support of Peers with quotes from Peers' posts that might suggest townishness. (The only post he quoted in his defense of Peers was the reserve the right to claim putty post). Yet before this he was very suspicious of Peers, and then turned around almost without warning and started defending him. I'm curious as to why. I'm don't know if CES is scum, but his defense does not make sense to me, and thus I'm going to be suspicious of him until I'm given reason not to be.-
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I get the impression you don't have any idea what WIFOM is. Also, isn't the way someone plays (like scum or town) theoriginality wrote:I like how CES says he is "fully convinced Peers is town" while the only evidence he manages to produce is "I don't think scum would play that way". wifom anyone?onlyreason to lynch someone. On day one, at least. I've given several arguments why I think Peers isn't playing like scum.-
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Note that I stopped Peers from being lynched in the first place. The votes only piled up again after a deadline was set. And since it appears that there aren't even 7 people who want to vote Peers right now, there's still a chance he's not going to get lynched. In fact, Jmar's had more votes than Peers after I started defending the latter.originality wrote:If Peers came out town, then a mafia CES would be a good possibility, as it seems as if he is trying to build credibility for himself on the town's eyes by supporting someone he knows for a fact to be town, which would explain his strong conviction. Something to remark is how CES defends Peers so much in these final moments when its 90% sure Peers is going to be lynched.-
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Well.. I pretty much figured so too, and I don't think Unright's really looking worse right now because of the nightkill. UA is, although annoying, a good player, and most people thought he was fairly townish.
Also:
I think UA gave the impression he wasn't a Putty Patroller here.UltimaAvalon wrote:UltimaAvalon 8:45AM wrote:So...you're saying this is potentially a fight between three Vanillas?
I'd rather think scums would tend to leave annoying people alive. I think it's pretty clear that some people's annoyance pretty much screwed the town up yesterday.
Originality doesn't make much sense, and I think he's doing so to try and make Unright look bad. No unvote here.-
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First of all, I have no personal bias against you whatsoever. Sorry for my behavior against you. However, Ioriginality wrote:Far from an unreasonable assumption. He kept going after me for (crappy imho) reasons yesterday, now he finds crappy reasons against me today. I just don't see how what I'm doing is scummy. How is it weird me saying what you quoted when he keeps going after me? I'm not implying that he literally doesn't like me personally and wants me dead, it is a figure of speech if thats not obvious. Still, even if I was trying to imply a weird feud thing between me and him, you cannot say "I'm not getting this at all". Has he been doing anything other then try to find reasons against me? You could say that you thought it was rather unlikely or something, but completely turn a blind eye on something like that is too much ignoring facts on your part.ampursuing you because I think you're scum, and tbh, I think that's a pretty valid reason. Ofcourse, the fact you made unreasonable assumptions regarding the nightkill wouldn't alone be enough for a vote, but together with the reasons I gave yesterday, I'm feeling perfectly fine about my vote. If you think my reasons are crappy, so be it. You have the opportunity to defend yourself against them, if you can.
Unright did claim a powerrole, and he was the only one. I don't think it's unreasonable to think the doctor protected him last night, wether he's mafia or not. Also, I don't think the mafia would risk losing the nightkill, and killed someone they were sure wasn't going to be protected.originality wrote:But lets reason for a second. Unright is proposing that he could have been protected by a doctor. Really, if you were scum, would you not attack the person that made a clear claim of powerrole instead of someone who you think might be a powerrole?-
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It's a little frustrating that you ask other people for opinions and explanations all the time, but don't give all that many of your own..Mirth wrote:I'd like to take a poll: who here wants Unright to just claim now?
My personal opinion on this is undecided.
Anyway, I'm against an Unright claim, because I'd rather wagon Originality first. However, there's no majority that wants to lynch either of them, and there will probably never be a majority until activity picks up. I'm afraid something like a claim would be one of the few things that could make this game more active. I guess I'll wait for some others to check in.-
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My excuses to everyone. I was unable to post for a few days, and I forgot to notice PJ beforehand.
It wasn't certain at all that Peers was going to be lynched. If anything, I turned the tide when I started defending Peers, bringing more attention to Jmar's scumminess. At some point, he even had more votes than Peers, but somehow people hopped back on Peers' wagon when the deadline was set (this is actually a point against Jmar, now I think of it).DrippingGoofball wrote:Another thing thing I noticed is that CES seemed to be setting himself to look good knowing there would be a mislynch. =scummy.
Also, I know scum often try to save a soon-to-be-mislynched townie, but I wonder how you think a townie that has faith in the innocence of someone about to be lynched would act.
The suggestion I didn't give an explanation is false. I said I didn't have the time to give an in-depth analysis of Peers' posts, but I gave pretty much every reason I had for me to think Peers was a Putty Patroller. Apparently, people are too lazy to read back and try to find out what I mean, rather than repeatedly asking clarification (looking at Mirth here). It's been suggested several times that I didn't (and don't) explain myself, while I believe I have.-
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I didn't say that my defense of Peers was a point against Jmar. I said the fact Peers' wagon, rather than Jmar's wagon, grew the most after the deadline was set. It's not the same. Not at all.Mirth wrote:No, your defense of Peers is a point against you and not Jmar because the attack on Jmar was insubstantial and had pretty much nothing to go on. I've read back, and I don't see much of a reason for your defense of Peers. Maybe I'll read back yet again sometime this weekend, but I'm pretty sure that that's not going to change the fact that you don't provide solid reasoning.
Also, I wonder why several people unvoted and voted Jmar if the wagon truely had nothing to go on.
*rolleyes*Mirth wrote:Also, CES, give me one good reason why I shouldn't change my vote to you?-
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Again, it wasn't certain that Peers was going to get lynched. I've said this several times. Your wagon was bigger than Peers' for a while, and our lynch target wasn't yet decided.jmar wrote:
Scum hoping to appear clean once Peers went down? Hmm... I should reread this part.jmar wrote:Also, I wonder why several people unvoted and voted Jmar if the wagon truely had nothing to go on.-
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This indeed, made no sense. I was just wagonning UA for the hell of it. It was just part of the random phase. I did think UA and Unright were townish at that point, though.Bookitty wrote:Much easier, for me. CES indicates that he would like a quicklynch (I think this was humour) and explains it thusly: "A quicklynch is also good for impatient people with awesome night actions, so there's really no downside to it."
This statement has no sense to it:
Cogito Ergo Scum wrote:I liked Avalon's wagon way better than this.
Avalon and Unright are very townish.
Perhaps claiming a power role could draw doc-protection, but I don't think it would be advantageous for a scum to claim so. It increases the chance of being investigated, killed by an SK, pressed for claim. So if a scum claimed power, I think it'd be by accident. The likeliness of that person being lynched mostly depends on that person's claim.Bookitty wrote:What do you think the advantage to scum is, to softclaim a power role? Do you think it's more or less likely that someone would be lynched, having softclaimed such a role?-
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Bookitty wrote:What seemed to fit perfectly with vanilla town in Peers' play, in your opinion?
This postPeers wrote:It was hypothetical. I reserve the right to claim Putty as my role in the future. I was simply saying, we have no proof there are multiple putties in teh game; just because a generic Putty role was posted doesn't mean it's being used. Except, of course, for those who received it.screamed'I'm vanilla'. Peers wouldn't have backtracked if he wasn't a Putty. He also says there's no proof there aremultiplePutty's in the game, which could hint at the fact he knows about one putty.
That's pretty much it. Also the recklessness in his play led me to believe he was a vanilla townie, although this is indeed speculative.-
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Yes, I do. I think Originality is a better target right now, but Jmar's certainly one of my top suspects. Come to think of it, my list of top suspects only consists of Originality and Jmar. I haven't found a connection between them, though.Bookitty wrote:Do you still feel JMar is likely scum? What connections do you see between Originality and JMar, if that is the case?-
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I actually thought the point PWS brought up was a decent one. Jmar hardly made any informative posts early in the game, and then accused someone else of not being productive. It was quite OMGUSy, too. Jmar hardly gave his opinion on anything on day 1, other than his OMGUS-crusade on PWS and the fact he wanted Peers lynched. Anything he's said about others was inconclusive, and even his top3 scumlist wasn't really informative for that matter. For the rest, it was gut, as I said. The case on Jmar may have not been very good, as I admitted, but I thought it was better than Peers'.Bookitty wrote:What is the case against JMar, exactly? I just reread the game again (as is probably evident) and I still am not seeing it.-
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Basically because there's no good reason to think I'm scum. You've been wary when it came to voting people all game, but you want to vote me because I defended a townie and because I didn't explain my actions well enough. I'm trying to give my reasons, but your questionaires honestly upset me. As for defending Peers, I've been accused of being his scumbuddy as well as defending a townie to make me look good, so I guess people would've come after me regardless of Peers' alignment. If I think someone who's town is about to get lynched, I defend that person. Abstaining from a wagon and seeing that person get lynched, although I see people doing it more often than defending someone, isn't really optimal play, IMO.Mirth wrote:CES: you didn't give me a good reason not to vote you, I'm waiting for one. Really, I am.-
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