Mini 1729 - History Mafia II END


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Post Post #44 (isolation #0) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 10:12 am

Post by Errantparabola »

hey just to let you all know i'm LA up to tomorrow.
VOTE: bastion
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Post Post #85 (isolation #1) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:18 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Call of the Wild said that Bella's entrance looked awkward.
Bearded, as someone who's hydraed with bella what do you think
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Post Post #171 (isolation #2) » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:10 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 158, Aristophanes wrote:I feel like one of Dwlee/KT should be scum. Leaning on KT.
Thoughts?

Is it because of the double tunnel? Why?
And why Kt?

That being said
KTthecreeper wrote:all i have done is try to scumhunt if thats scumish then by all means lynch me

This seems a bit off
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Post Post #251 (isolation #3) » Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:59 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 232, Call of the Wild wrote:I promise to stop shitposting tomorrow. I just need some sleep.

~SW

BTW-I voted for gummybear for wordy posts that say nothing.

...i don't see how 216 points to scum over null

In post 176, Bellaphant wrote:The dewlee / KT thing looks super awkward - as ari said, it looks like someone is faking it but im not sure who!

I also kinda fail to see how rory got to the conclusion of aristo being scum based on trying to catch scum in kt/dwlee
isn't bella doing the same thing
also can someone explain to me in general why it's TvS cause i don't get that either
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Post Post #287 (isolation #4) » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:01 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 284, Rory wrote:
In post 208, Spiffeh wrote:Anyway KT looks like exactly the type of player scum would push to mislynch imo


I like this comment. Spiffeh can be town for now.

Anyway. More votes on Aristophanes. Choo Choo!

The amount of filler posts in this thread is really amazing too.

Rory what do you think about what i asked in my last post?
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Post Post #444 (isolation #5) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:37 am

Post by Errantparabola »

From what i read, spiffeh wants me pressured. Ill do things when i get home in a few hours, sorry about my lack of availability.
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Post Post #445 (isolation #6) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:39 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Ill go over my train of thought as well.
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Post Post #447 (isolation #7) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:43 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 371, Spiffeh wrote:Errantparabola has been asking questions that he never follows up on and I just consider most of them to be unhelpful/filler. His vote is still on his RVS target and he hasn't even tried to give any reads or make stances. I am surprised at the amount of people crying "lack of content" and no one has mentioned this guy who I think is the biggest culprit. Can we wagon this please?

Ill go over my questions and also decide on a vote.
Again, i apologize

I feel like a politician making all these promises for the future
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Post Post #454 (isolation #8) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:19 am

Post by Errantparabola »

POST 1: Questions, Rory, and Aristophanes

Rory, from what I have seen, has pretty much gone unpressured this entire game.
I don't know whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, but I'm going to go over why I asked Rory what I did, and why his response, or lack thereof, matters to me.

Rory's case on Aristo:
Aristo "continues to poke around to see if he can vote someone without people complaining."
The evidence he presents on this is regarding the DW/KT tunnel.
Aristo responds to a similar question about why he thinks KT in 165.
I think that Rory should address this before pushing for an Aristo wagon.
Rory's second piece of evidence is 78, saying that Aristo hasn't answered his question. Which he does. In 158. You know, the same post that Rory is talking about.
Furthermore, I don't think there is a link between Aristo's 158 (the Should be Scum post) and why Rory is saying Aristo is trying to sneak a vote in. I don't see a difference between Aristo's suspicions and anybody else's. I don't townread him, I just can't read him as scum based on 158 alone, which is what Rory seems to be doing.

My question to Rory:
It was the fact that Bellaphant's 176 is equivalent to Aristo except for the fact that Aristo thinks KT is more likely to be the S in TvS.
I personally don't think that Aristo's added suspicion on KT makes a difference in Rory's train of thought. Using Rory's train of thought, it should be just as logical to vote Bella on being interested in the DW/KT wagon and thinking it's TvS. I don't see the consistency between his logic and the players he questions.

VOTE: Rory

I dislike voting someone that I can't scumread (seeing as Rory hasn't actually responded to any of my points) but, as Spiffeh points out, it's better than an RVS vote.
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Post Post #458 (isolation #9) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:35 am

Post by Errantparabola »

POST 2: Scorpius, KT, and Dwlee

A major portion of this game has been KT and Dwlee. I'm going to go over what I think about them.
204 seems to be called out a bit for being fake rage.
I don't have an opinion either way-- I think someone mentioned it being difficult to read KT because of the tone of his posts and I agree.
KT's 281 and 293 seem to be scumreads based on activity. I'm noticing something similar to what Rory seems to be doing- there's a dissonance between his logic and the people he pursues. Bella, me, and Aristo seem to have an equal amount of content. If KT is scum, I'm going to say that MS and Rory seem a bit more towny based on this weak attempt to scumread the two based on logic that could also apply to others. I believe Spiffeh touches on this in his attack on me.
Dwlee is mainly a nullread for me. I personally think that their early game interaction was more TvT, but if it were TvS, which Aristo has yet to really justify, thatn I would be more inclined to think it's KT as scum.
I find it interesting that KT puts up this image of him and Dwlee attacking Scorpius together when earlier they seemed to be at each others throats.

Speaking of scorpius, I want to talk about him.
I don't like 263's response to Bastion's 260, as Bastion raises pretty valid points and Scorpius kind of brushes them off.
I also don't like 425. I don't see how "contributing to the state of the game" equates to scumhunting, and I don't see the logic behind scorpius' response.
That being said, I don't agree with bearded. I don't think that reads lists are inherently scummy. Sure, scum can use them to make it seem like they're doing something, but town can use them for scorp's reason as well.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #10) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:53 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

I like gummys points against scorp.
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Post Post #476 (isolation #11) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:04 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 473, Dwlee99 wrote:To clarify I feel Errant is hedging on his opinion on me and KT.

there must have been some brain fart in my post. I think you and KT are town v town but if there is scum in you two, which I doubt, I find it's more likely to be KT.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #12) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:30 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Dwlee says "90% sure KT is town"
That's why I said there was a brain fart, dwlee
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Post Post #489 (isolation #13) » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:32 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

To clarify, my posts are organic and stream of consciousness, I sometimes create new thoughts as I post them. I acknowledge that this could be remedied by editing or being more clear with where I'm making changes in my thought process, and I should do that more often.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #14) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:05 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 498, Scorpious wrote:I have to deal with children..

Then the adults can't think for themselves.. You guys are supposed to be good at this..

I'm VT

Do what you want.. :/

You could at least try to respond to what people are saying about you, no?
I dont necessarily think the reads list is scummy, i think it doesnt go eitherway.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #15) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:30 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Bastions points. Ill also respond to your points about me on rory in a few hours.
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Post Post #518 (isolation #16) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:37 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 504, Scorpious wrote:
In post 454, Errantparabola wrote:My question to Rory:It was the fact that Bellaphant's 176 is equivalent to Aristo except for the fact that Aristo thinks KT is more likely to be the S in TvS.I personally don't think that Aristo's added suspicion on KT makes a difference in Rory's train of thought. Using Rory's train of thought, it should be just as logical to vote Bella on being interested in the DW/KT wagon and thinking it's TvS. I don't see the consistency between his logic and the players he questions.VOTE: RoryI dislike voting someone that I can't scumread (seeing as Rory hasn't actually responded to any of my points) but, as Spiffeh points out, it's better than an RVS vote.


This bothers me..

They had a question for Rory,and then seemingly answered it for him,then voted him.. Then said they dislike doing it? Seems off.


The reason i dont want to vote him that much is because he hadnt had a chance to respond. Who knows, he might have a good train of thought that convinces me. But as spiffeh points out, its better than an rvs vote and puts pressure on him to actually answer the question. Also i dont think i answered the question for him.
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Post Post #520 (isolation #17) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:47 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Has your own reads list changed at all, plot?
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Post Post #521 (isolation #18) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:49 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 516, KTthecreeper wrote:
In post 515, Scorpious wrote:@EP

Explain to me why Bastion has devoted entire wall posts to me being scum.. And they seemed to get longer as I become a more viable candidate. Again. When I flip.. Just note the effort he put into lynching a Vanilla..



isn't the most common scum fakeclaim VT early game or counter claim in MYLO/LYLO

True, but i dont think that the vanilla claim is scummy, simply because a lot of people are going to he vanilla.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #19) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:17 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Sure.
I think that he's acting kind of odd in regards to the attacks on him, like in 263 and here:

In post 515, Scorpious wrote:@EP

Explain to me why Bastion has devoted entire wall posts to me being scum.. And they seemed to get longer as I become a more viable candidate. Again. When I flip.. Just note the effort he put into lynching a Vanilla..


this is fine and good, and I'm not saying I townread bastion. I just want scorpius to respond to this

In post 493, Sir Bastion wrote:That rings alarm bells for me and I could look at this 2 ways, either Scorpious is trying to look active without actually doing any scumhunting or Creeper's and Dwlee's response was so over the top that he's afraid of looking like he's OMGUS on one of them if he votes.


I personally think that the way he continues to fail to answer to it is scummy, but I'm waiting for a response before I finalize a read, just like I am with rory.
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Post Post #597 (isolation #20) » Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:13 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 575, Spiffeh wrote:Gdi fine my EP vote isn't doing anything anyway BECAUSE EVERYONE IS IGNORING HIM

VOTE: BeardedCat

No one's really interacting with me and it's actually frustrating.
What do you think about my read on Scorpius?
What do you think about my read on Rory?
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Post Post #607 (isolation #21) » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:05 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Is there anything specific about You want to know about?
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Post Post #725 (isolation #22) » Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:22 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Bastion, you asked me about KT and Dwlee originally tunneling each other and then moving on to buddying each other, but I deleted the quote and got so frustrated that I lost everything that I'm not going back to find it. Sorry. I think that the reason Dwlee transitioned to defending KT is because of meta, which he expressly states he uses only for KT because reading him is difficult otherwise (and I agree). I'm inclined to believe this meta read because nothing stands out to me in their interactions as both being scum. So in a sense, I don't think Dwlee is defending KT too much.

In post 649, BeardedCat wrote:
In post 507, Errantparabola wrote:
I dont necessarily think the reads list is scummy, i think it doesnt go eitherway.

You say things like this a lot.

Can you give me 3 thoughts on the game that contain a decent amount of certainty in them?

Only a sith deals in absolutes, but I'll try.
Ari is an easy mislynch. I don't like how people were either quick to vote him or quick to support a vote on him while voting someone else. If aristo is town then there is scum in that pool.
I strongly dislike spiffeh's push on me. He expresses frustration that I'm coasting and "no one is interacting with me" and so he asks me what my read on scorp is, which I provide. Spiffeh looks like he couldn't care less about my answer, even after I directly ask him what he thought about it, and he ignores me, exactly what he criticizes others for doing. Somehow I feel like that last phrase was grammatically incorrect but I don't really know. Oh well. Spiffeh's (see beardedcat I took your advice, be proud of me) stands out to me as odd, as he's jumping on the aristo wagon while saying he actually supports another lynch, a point which I think gummmy touches on.
Again, Dwlee and KT are probably town, at least for now. If something stands out to me as a faked interaction, I'd probably go for KT above Dwlee.
The way Scorpious attacks Bastion's line of questioning instead of actually answering them stands out to me as leaning towards scummy. I'd really like for him to answer.
I wonder how Rory would react to the aristo wagon and the people on it. Hope he comes back soon, I think his VLA ends today.

Yeah, I kinda started rambling there
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Post Post #825 (isolation #23) » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:55 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 821, Nexus wrote:
Errantparabola has been prodded

Sorry about that, ill reread and post when i get home.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #24) » Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:17 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 830, Bellaphant wrote:I'm lacking a clear progression of thought from him.

How so?
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Post Post #846 (isolation #25) » Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:27 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 844, Call of the Wild wrote:
In post 825, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 821, Nexus wrote:
Errantparabola has been prodded

Sorry about that, ill reread and post when i get home.


Hi, How come I barely know who you are or anything you've said this game?

~SW

hey!

care to iso me?
wanna have a discussion?
not a single thing that pushes a read on me either way?
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Post Post #908 (isolation #26) » Wed Oct 28, 2015 3:54 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Hey Tony. I think it would be helpful to give a list of people that you see as scummy/towny and why, whenever you manage to catch up.
I'm really mainly interested in what Rory has to say about my case and what Spiffeh has to say about the wall of fun.
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Post Post #944 (isolation #27) » Thu Oct 29, 2015 7:57 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Damn, son, we're 27 days past deadline.
most generous mod confirmed?

In post 905, Spiffeh wrote:SW I promise you that I am not always so obvtown when I am town.

It is unfortunate but true.

This post rubs me the wrong way.

Spiffeh, I'll look at your response to SW.
Let's divide it into three main points:
EP suspicion
KT white knighting
oversuspicion

In post 909, Spiffeh wrote:
Don't say there isn't a reason for it when you quoted the exact reason I gave. If you disagree with the reason (which is what I think you are saying), I get it's not some hardcore irrefutable evidence, but keep in mind that this was post 126. What exactly would constitute a vote that isn't gross? I can also point to your slot's vote at the time and how Titus gave no real reasoning for it. And your Bella point is a stretch. But I'm not going to call these things out because I read them all as efforts to get out of RVS and didn't take them super seriously enough to call them bad and suspect you for them. But you don't feel the same way about mine?

I think this is fair. What I see is you pointing out some hypocrisy from cotw. I find this a pretty unfounded argument because you push on me up to 446, which is well out of rvs.

In post 909, Spiffeh wrote:I responded to that in post 483. To be clear, I thought he was obv town and it looked like it was his immaturity (not in a bad way) that was turning people off. Nothing about him looked scummy to me and I still hold to that. I will defend my town reads, like I defended you in Delicious 2 when you were taking heat.

This makes... sort of sense. Basically what you're saying is KT's manner of posting is what turns people off from townreading him. I find it odd that you townread KT rather than nullread him considering you say that "nothing about him looked scummy to me." Anything specific that puts KT as town?

In post 909, Spiffeh wrote:Oh come on now this is ridiculous. First of all, who cares how many people I am suspicious of? You think that makes me scummy? This is me scum hunting. I say what comes to my mind.

Ultimately, this is kind of the bread and butter of SW's case on Spiffeh and I don't think that being suspicious of different people is ultimately scummy.

I'm inclined to think that neither CotW or Spiffeh are particularly scummy but Spiffeh as of now is the stronger townread despite 905. I'll wait for CotW's response before making a final verdict.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #28) » Thu Oct 29, 2015 11:33 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 955, Spiffeh wrote:If I wanted the posts requoted and my question ignored I would have asked.

So you're telling me you liked agreed with everything that CotW said, before you read my post.
Then you read my post and agreed with everything I said?

This seems unnatural.

It is.
Dwlee has been going on about lynching Spiffeh a long time before CotW vs Spiffeh and it seems odd that he would drop that read so quickly without giving half of a reason.
Surely Dwlee must have had some reason to have Spiffeh as scum other than what CotW said?
Dwlee, any scumreads now other than scorp?
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #29) » Fri Oct 30, 2015 2:58 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1001, Dwlee99 wrote:Turned in to thinking KT, Scorpious and I are scum.
VOTE: Errantparabola

When did this happen
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #30) » Fri Oct 30, 2015 2:09 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

LA until Sunday. I'll try to post as much as I can.
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 30, 2015 2:32 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

We're not super close to deadline so I don't see the harm in giving Tony a bit of time to work through the whole thing and give some solid thoughts before I jump on that wagon.
I can definitely get on an aristo lynch, though.

BBT, in 649 you asked me to give you some definite thoughts on the game.
I do so in .
What did you think?
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #32) » Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:39 am

Post by Errantparabola »

VOTE: scorpius

L-1.
I feel the same as spiffeh.
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Post Post #1137 (isolation #33) » Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:10 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1126, Rory wrote:In the game I played with him as scum, he fakeclaimed weak doctor as scum. So the VT claim probably means he is actually town...

so scorpius fakeclaims pr every time he's scum?
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Post Post #1187 (isolation #34) » Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:26 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1175, gummmybear wrote:Also, Spiffeh, why are you still trying to lynch Aristophanes?

Spiffeh, thoughts on the flip?
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Post Post #1217 (isolation #35) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:55 am

Post by Errantparabola »

I am here and will be active in a few hours.
Stay tuned!
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Post Post #1222 (isolation #36) » Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:06 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1206, BeardedCat wrote:I think this post would be improved by line breaks in between the paragraphs, or perhaps by bulletpoints or by not hitting enter at the end of each sentence, but these are all non alignment indicative stylistic complaints

Complaint acknowledged.

In post 1206, BeardedCat wrote:Errant, what do you think of bastion today? Do you still feel that ari is a mislynch?

1) Will ISO Bastion.
2) Will ISO Spiffeh for that sweet, sweet case.
3) Will get back to you on both of these points.

In post 1210, Bellaphant wrote:Also! hadn't realised Erant was that new, I swear I've played in 3/4 games with them - maybe I'm accidentally stalking them? o.0

Basically I joined the site back in March, then I had some moderately serious medical complications that caused me to replace out of some games, a few of which you may have been in.
But I'm better now! You could say I'm feeling spiffeh WINK WINK

This post turned out pretty frivolous.
Guess I'm in that kind of mood.
Thoughts on Bastion and Aristo incoming, BC.
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Post Post #1248 (isolation #37) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:34 am

Post by Errantparabola »

is a pretty good point about the flip in terms of aristo and I think that Spiffeh's wanting to lynch Aristo is genuine town

I originally thought that Spiffeh stalling on the Scorp wagon and then calling out Rory for doing the same thing was a bit of a discrepancy but looking further into it I think it makes sense.

is what I presume Spiffeh's reasons for pushing on aristo today are, aristo was setting himself up to safelynch scorp without coming under fire himself
But that raises the question. Spiffeh, why is scorp flipping town not make aristo seem scummier in light of what you say in 1071? Unless I'm misinterpreting what you say?
Aristo, reads on BC and bella? Where are you at now?

I am willing to vote here VOTE: Aristophanes
And currently I would be unwilling to lynch spiffeh.

Reading the bastion case now.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #38) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:40 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1234, BeardedCat wrote:I'm curious how spiffeh ended up on the lynch list today.

I don't think I caught an answer to this, and I'd like to hear one when gummy is able to answer

pignash, you think that aristo and spiffeh are town?
looks like the bastion case is mainly on inactivity and I want bastion to come back and respond before I'm willing to consolidate on a wagon on him.
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Post Post #1271 (isolation #39) » Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:19 am

Post by Errantparabola »

im leaving on a flight, ill post when i arrive.
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Post Post #1304 (isolation #40) » Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:36 am

Post by Errantparabola »

VOTE: bastion
Thats l-1
Tony, i dont get why trying to flashlynch bella is alignment indicative.
Rather, i think that it seems consistent with spiffehs play this game.
Which i think is town.

Phoneposting up until tuesday because theres no wifi at my hotel.
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Post Post #1355 (isolation #41) » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:03 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1354, Bellaphant wrote:Ugh, so, voteless doesn't necessarily mean town, because scum would be conf!towning a lot of people by day 4. If it is a different role, are there any advantages of claiming? I'm assuming BC's vote is back now?

p-edit, can I be Zeus, or maybe Spartacus?


Makes sense. If the vote stealer is scum, then i think it would be suboptimal to use that power in the first place.
Maybe a third party role with some other wincon attached?
And yeah, it says 8 votes are in play out of 9 alive.
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Post Post #1386 (isolation #42) » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:03 am

Post by Errantparabola »

I was townreading Spiffeh end of D2. Ill reevaluate him in light of recent posts, but i dont expect the read to change.
I also feel tempted to ISO dwlee. I was townreading him end of D1 but i havent actually seen anything from him since.

Actually thinking about it pings me and Ill explain why when i get to wifi.
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Post Post #1414 (isolation #43) » Wed Nov 18, 2015 6:50 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1364, TonyMontana wrote:"Take my life, just don't let us no-lynch" he heroically proclaimed as he had one vote on him

This might be the only convincing thing that I've seen so far against Spiffeh.

In post 1383, Starbuck wrote:it's like Errant seemed to remember that they were defending Aristo on Day 1 and wanted to be off the lynch.

This logic isn't questionable but I just, you know, straight up wasn't here around deadline. RL and all that.

In post 1385, BeardedCat wrote:This is something I felt I needed to look into. I felt like Spiffeh was just posting 'Ari is scum' over and over and I couldn't remember any reasoning he gave.

Something I can see town doing just as easily as scum.

Talking about my previous post, turns out Spiffeh's 1380 didn't ping me at all and I was just tired as fuck.

In post 1391, Starbuck wrote:
In post 1389, Spiffeh wrote:Don't you dare act like Aristophanes was not the scummiest scumfuck in the world for the entire game until he claimed. Anyone who does is an automatic scum read


Still catching up, but that's a bit harsh, no?

He had some pretty good points of what I'm reading while I catch up. The only thing that really made him scummy, it seems, is his absence.

Way to overdramatize.

Still seems to me like a townpost.

In post 1399, Spiffeh wrote:Largest town read is Dwlee. Sir Bastion is a town lean because his Aristophanes push when he claimed looked genuine.

KT looked town but I don't remember a thing pignash has posted.

So I'm only willing to lynch any of [BeardedCat, Starbuck, Bellaphant, ErrantParabola, TonyMontana].

I need to ISO Bella and Errant thoroughly.

I see your resonning for BC, Bella, and Starbuck, but I think I'm missing your reasoning for me and Tony.

In post 1402, Starbuck wrote:This doesn't seem all that town to me.

How many times are people going to say this i wonder

Someone please make me ISO Dwlee when I get home
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Post Post #1419 (isolation #44) » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:47 am

Post by Errantparabola »

in light of recent circumstance, i think its safe to say that dwlee is probably town. Since i dont think wants a deadline scramble, ill try to find a case alternate to spiffeh cause id personally like spiffeh to stick around.
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Post Post #1429 (isolation #45) » Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:07 am

Post by Errantparabola »

I remember you saying otherwise in , using some hidden reasoning that i havent gotten yet.
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Post Post #1457 (isolation #46) » Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:42 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Decided to try and analyze pignash's iso

There's a fair bit of wifom involved in analyzing a confirmed scum slot, but I tried.

As soon as he comes in, pignash pushes on bastion. In my opinion, I don't think that pignash was in a very strong town position when he replaced in and so I think it's less likely that he would bus someone off the bat, possibly compromising two scum members.
Not so subtly tries to rope Spiffeh in to lynching Sir Bastion. I think that trying to aim for a Sir Bastion lynch seemed like low hanging fruit so he doesn't need to enlist the help of fellow scum members. Spiffeh town, which is what I had him as already.
Then decides that one of Spiffeh and BC is scum.

The grand total of people that pignash has interacted with or talked about is three- sir bastion, spiffeh, and BC. I wouldn't expect anything more from a scum that seemed to me in a pretty bad (or at least not very influential) spot.

Based on KT and pignash being confirmed scum, I think that I can say Bastion and Dwlee are town.
I think Bastion assumed it was a three scum game.

Going off that assumption and also thinking that Spiffeh is town, two scum are in BC, Starbuck, TonyMontana.
Both BC and Starbuck being scum seems off to me, based on the info that we have on both of them being voteless on D1 and D2. I don't think that a town votestealer would use their power on either Rory or BC (actually I don't think a town votestealer would use their power at all). I also don't think that having a third party votestealer makes sense. So that means that the votestealer is likely scum. And I don't see a scumvotestealer using their power on two scum members.

Meaning that TonyMontana is scum by PoE? I know that Dwlee made some good points on TonyMontana and KT interactions, but I'd like to iso that slot when I have time.

I know there's a lot of guesswork involved in this analysis and not a lot of actual scumhunting, so I'm going to iso tonymontana before I decide to put him at L-1 or not.
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #47) » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:57 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Ill decide on a vote in about 6 hours
When i do i can guarantee you that it sure as hell wont be spiffeh
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Post Post #1525 (isolation #48) » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:59 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1511, Spiffeh wrote:Still think the last two scum are BC and Starbuck

I would be willing to lynch either with a preference for BC.

I am slightly paranoid of Dwlee pulling the wool over my eyes but I don't have the time to look into that right now so I'll just trust my read.


Spiffeh, thoughts on scum taking the vote from both of their partners?
Is it likely?
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Post Post #1568 (isolation #49) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:26 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1550, Dwlee99 wrote:Okay.
Claim order is:
me
errant
bastion
bc
starbuck

I am a vt.
NEXT


So am I.
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #50) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:29 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1557, Starbuck wrote:I still am holding onto that faith that since KT flipped scum that you aren't.

In addition, Dwlee's acting pretty town today. If Dwlee is scum I'll eat my hat.

Do you think that looking at pignash/KT interactions is a worthwhile pursuit?
I'll look into that and I'll be ISOing Starbuck (not gonna bother ISOing rory because he didn't do much and what he did I thought was suspicious) today.
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #51) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:57 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Says that Dwlee and KT might be double scum "I can't really see the Town motivation behind either of them." Fast forward to the present, Starbuck is saying that Dwlee is town because KT conf scum. If I don't see a progression of thought in future posts, my question to Starbuck is: what changed?

Asks why Bastion didn't freak out over BeardedCat's catch ups. From what it looks like, Bastion just, straight up ignores this. So I'll be looking for whether Starbuck pressed this in the future. Because this could be an indicator of Bastion + BC. Townreads Spiffeh. I'll be looking for the progression from townread to scumread, although it seems decently obvious why someone would scumread Spiffeh's recent posts. BTW, spiffeh, if you're reading this, you mentioned that you were disappointed in Dwlee and I, and for not doing more to elaborate on my townread on you, I am sorry. Also in 1262: Starbuck continues to push on KT, while letting her suspicion of Dwlee sort of wither away.

Attacks BC's defense of KT/Dwlee. By saying "to a lesser extent, dwlee," Starbuck dusts off that ol' mini-scumread on dwlee. Again, I need to see the progression from scum to town here. In addition, Starbuck's main target in her catchup is KT. I think it is more likely that BC and KT are partners than Starbuck and KT, but I'm not ruling out the possibility that Starbuck views KT as someone who will probably get lynched later on and so throws him under the bus (sidenote: is that where the term bussing comes from?).

Thinks that BC and MS is TvT so, in a way, the defense of KT/Dwlee didn't matter that much to her. My question to you, Starbuck, is: going back to your catchup in retrospect, do you think that the BC defense of KT/Dwlee holds more significance? Because the way that Starbuck just drops it seems like she isn't willing to pursue that line of thought because it could haul two partners into the spotlight.

BAM here we go. starbuck says that Dwlee and KT is TvS. Now! I need to know what changed. Again, Starbuck dances around the issue of BC being potential scum in 747 (isn't that an airplane?)

Again! "BC's writing off of Dwlee and KT as town is troubling." But still townreading? Also in 1384- says that, again, ONE OR BOTH OF KT OR DWLEE MIGHT BE SCUM. So reverts back to the whole Dwlee might be scum idea. And so the question remains WHY IS starbuck willing to write Dwlee off as town? I can personally see why, but I'm not seeing any progression here. And that makes me less confident in my own townread on Dwlee because i can see a world in which Starbuck is willing to bus her partners, but when the stakes get high, revert back to a townread on Dwlee. Which is now. I'm not making any conclusions until Starbuck answers the question, though.

Okay, so I can see the progression from town Spiff to scum spiff. So disregard my potential question regarding that.

So in conclusion? No conclusion. Until I get answers to the questions.
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Post Post #1572 (isolation #52) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:58 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Interactions that I can see happening:

Starbuck - KT - Dwlee
Starbuck - KT - BC

Starbuck - Bastion are probably not on the same team.

Note that this is my first iso so when working through the other players, this will probably change drastically.
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Post Post #1573 (isolation #53) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:59 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Also I'm definitely not ruling out Starbuck being town, because I can't shake the fact that her attack on KT seems genuine.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #54) » Sat Nov 28, 2015 10:56 am

Post by Errantparabola »

That makes sense. I agree with Dwlee acting towny. is there anything that convinced you that Dwlee/KT was TvS, not just Dwlee acting towny in a vacuum?
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Post Post #1605 (isolation #55) » Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:25 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Sorry, real life is kicking me in the shins right now. I'll make sure to be here tonight
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #56) » Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:29 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1579, Starbuck wrote:
In post 1571, Errantparabola wrote:1270 Thinks that BC and MS is TvT so, in a way, the defense of KT/Dwlee didn't matter that much to her


FYI, I'm not a fan of this misrepresentation.

I didn't state that BC and MS are TVT. I asked it as a question, which means that I was unsure. I didn't state it outright that it was a TvT interaction as you are saying here.

In post 1270, Starbuck wrote:Could Metal Sonic and BeardedCat be TvT? Both are coming to the table with points that I easily could have made and I like it.


I don't think that you calling that a misrep is fair. Reading into your quote in 1270, you said that both MS and BC made points you liked, which I interpreted as you leaning town on them. I guess it's just me not being able to read into things very well, but I thought that the question you posed was more of a "hey, guys, what do you think about my thoughts on MS and BC" not "hey, guys, I'm not really sure about MS and BC"
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Post Post #1609 (isolation #57) » Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:35 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1576, Errantparabola wrote:That makes sense. I agree with Dwlee acting towny. is there anything that convinced you that Dwlee/KT was TvS, not just Dwlee acting towny in a vacuum?

Star, I would really like you to answer this question.

In post 1578, Starbuck wrote:The 747 is, in fact, an airplane. I almost feel like you've been stalking me with that question, as I was an Aviation Electrician when I was in the Navy, I'm a huge aerophile, and I have my Bachelor's and Associate's in Aeronautics.

This is incredibly cool.

What's up next: I'm going to dig into BC's iso to look for interactions with Bastion
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Post Post #1619 (isolation #58) » Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:46 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 1616, BeardedCat wrote:Errant, I know later you say that you thought it was a TvT, after dwlee had backed down and called KT town, but back at this point in the game when the fight was still raging, did you think it was more TvT or SvS and why?

I remember Bella and some other folks thought that there was something weird about that interaction. I never understood that. How are you able to say that the interaction is weird coming from one side without knowing which side it's coming from? So I never really bought the whole TvS thing at that point because no one made any convincing arguments. My read on the two was mainly null, but I was willing to acknowledge that Dwlee was likelier town. I also never bought (and still don't buy) the SvS argument.

In post 1615, Starbuck wrote:@Errant - I feel like the answer to your question was in the post that was above it. Is there a certain point in this that you would like some more elaboration?

Not exactly... I guess what I'm trying to ask is were there any association tells between KT and Dwlee that made you think that they were scum together? If so, did those association tells change or did Dwlee's towniness override those tells?

In post 1601, Dwlee99 wrote:Just the tone of their posts coupled with their questions during the beginning. I am conflicted because they decided you were town early on. Ughhhh
If you read rorys iso though it is them just obvtowning. Scum team kept them alive for a reason (cause of townread on bc?). Sorry that this is just me rambling but meh.

I don't buy this at all.
1. The tone thing is just parroting what BC said way back in D1
2. The tone thing is pretty sketchy anyway (like what does "I like your tone" even mean")
3. I have never understood and probably never will understand how people think that asking questions is alignment indicative unless there is something specific about the questions that shows specific motivation behind them

I think that Star (and BC for that matter) have been acting town in a vacuum but I'm suspicious of how BC decides to back out of their rory townread, which they never really went in depth on in the first place. I can see backtracking happening much more easily in LYLO because the stakes are higher. Not only this, but the murky status of the rory townread gives BC easy opportunity to say "now that I think about it, maybe rory isn't town after all" which was, you know, also never really elaborated on. So maybe it's an attempt at distancing between the two of them?
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #59) » Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:54 am

Post by Errantparabola »

VOTE: sir bastion
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Post Post #1641 (isolation #60) » Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:09 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Thanks Nexus for being awesome mod. I'm glad to be part of your potentially last game, and thanks for putting up with the whole modkilling incident.
Thanks BC and pignash for being awesome scumteam.
Thanks everyone else for making this game a really great one!

PS Sir Bastion, who's avatar was it?
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #61) » Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:19 am

Post by Errantparabola »

haha, thanks bastion. Yeah, I felt like Plot really carried for us.
I just realized that this is mini 1729. 1729 happens to be my favorite number.
destined to win?
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