Mini #406, Animaniacs! Water Tower Explosion! [Over]

[Seol]

I'm here and have done a cursory read but no analysis. First impressions are that something feels wrong with Fuldu. I'm out tonight and all day tomorrow so expect a substantial post on Sunday. Does anyone have any questions for me?

One question for Fuldu for now - what is the flavour reasoning given for your human/non-human investigation ability?

[Seol]

For my own reference:

Claims:

Fritzler: Nurse (female, human). Gender investigator. Confirmed by Fuldu.
Fuldu: Ralph (male, human). Humanity investigator.
JDodge: Brain (male, nonhuman). Townie.
VitaminR: Pinky (male, nonhuman). Townie.
Seol: Dr Otto Sctratchansniff (male, human). Townie.

Chicken Boo results: N1: Foolster ("no result"), N2: no submission
Mr Skullhead "inventions": N2: Thesp "good idea", Skruffs "bad idea".

Fritzler and Fuldu could you please clarify who you investigated on each night?

Fuldu, why did you target VitaminR last night instead of me?

[Seol]

Fuldu, why did you target VitaminR last night instead of me?

Hot damn, I suck. I can only put this down to being out of practise.

VitR and JDodge, why do you think I'm (likely) scum?

[Seol]

Also for the record, I'm currently still most suspicious of Fuldu but I want some time to rethink. At least twice I've had some nice strong arguments against him only to realise I'd misread and completely misunderstood what actually happened, the above being one case in point.

That still leaves a good few reasons why I'm looking at him (I have about three or four issues with his claim which I've checked aren't misreads) but it's entirely likely that's because I was looking harder at him in the first place i.e. I was getting blinkered/confirmation bias. Both VitR and JDodge need a re-read.

[Seol]

Why is it me, VitR or Fuldu - why not Fritz?

[Seol]

Before I answer that: Would you say it's safe to assume that the last scum would be from the (male, non-human) category?

Yes, I would.

[Seol]

I got human on SweenyTodd.

[Seol]

Yeah, I feel a bit of a dick for slow-rolling that one now.

[Seol]

OK, so I'm pretty sure Fuldu is our last scum. Like

vote: Fuldu

sure. Mostly because of issues with his claim.

Firstly I don't buy the flavour. Everyone else's flavour ties nicely to the show, and his doesn't. This is obviously subjective to an extent, but Nurse has an effect on all males, Buttons puts himself in incredible danger to protect the baby girl, Chicken Boo is somehow indistinguishable from a normal person... and Ralph excels at telling humans from non-humans? This is a guy who is on a permanent quest to get the Warners back in the tower and he can

distinguish humans from nonhumans?

I don't buy it.

Secondly I don't buy the functionality. The role can clear three roles out of twelve, is ambiguous about how it interacts with two roles (this is the real killer), and is lousy for identifying liars as the vast, vast majority of characters in the Animaniacs universe are nonhuman (so most fake claims will therefore be nonhuman too). The role

doesn't really do anything

.

Thirdly, I don't buy it in this setup. Let's assume for a moment that Fuldu

is

lying. That would give us a setup of:

Wakko, Mafia
Yakko, Mafia
Dot, Mafia

Chicken Boo, Partial Watcher
Nurse, Gender Investigator (oh yeah you can investigate my gender hellLOOO NURSE)
Buttons, Martyr
Mr. Skullhead, 2-Shot Inventor
Katie Ka-Boom, Post Restricted Townie

Rita, Townie
Pinky, Townie
Brain, Townie
Dr Otto Scratchansniff, Townie

There's no symmetry or consistency in the roles whatsoever. There are two investigative roles, both weak but both always useful. We have five functional roles, all (arguably weakened) versions of standard roles, all treated in an idiosyncratic manner.

If Fuldu

isn't

the scum, then we get a setup of:

Wakko, Mafia
Yakko, Mafia
Dot, Mafia

Chicken Boo, Partial Watcher
Nurse, Gender Investigator (oh yeah you can investigate my gender hellLOOO NURSE)
Ralph, Humanity Investigator
Buttons, Martyr
Mr. Skullhead, 2-Shot Inventor
Katie Ka-Boom, Post Restricted Townie

Rita, Townie
Pinky/Brain, Townie
Dr Otto Scratchansniff, Townie

We lose the Pinky/Brain semi-self-confirming aspect, but more importantly we end up with six functional roles, all weakened, all with a unusual and (within the game) unique treatment

except that Ralph and Nurse are mirrors of each other

, and not even in an elegant way either.

The role doesn't feel right, it doesn't work right, and it doesn't fit right. (This is because it is a lie).

This argument is entirely OGM, but when you're talking about elegance of design with a mod like PJ, OGM can be perfectly valid. This is one of those instances.

There are also behavioural things, but that's enough justification for now. If anyone needs more it is available on request.

[Seol]

Seol, you make a strong case, but I'm still bothered by his "no result" claim earlier today. The fact that he was the first to claim it speaks strongly in his favour. How do you see that?

Speaks strongly in his favour how? What do you think happened last night, and how do the events of today support that?

[Seol]

I see little reason for Fuldu to throw that complication out there, though. Why then claim the "no result" himself?

It just casts doubts on the whole thing.

What scenario are you imagining in which Fuldu claiming to be blocked before Fritzler suggests that Fuldu is more likely to be innocent?

[Seol]

As in: there's no scenario in which it makes sense for a pro-town Fuldu to claim that, but not for a scum Fuldu?

Yes, that's true. I hadn't looked at it that way.

No, as in: What scenario were you imagining?

I'm not asking here because I'm arguing about the validity of your conclusion, I'm asking because I want to understand your thought process at the time.

[Seol]

Firstly,

unvote

. I'm finding this very interesting.

I had the first scenario in mind, but, thinking about it, I can see two more.

1) Fuldu is a scum roleblocker. In that case, I don't see why he claimed to be blocked. If only Fritzler were to have claimed a "no result," I would have just assumed that the remaining scum is a roleblocker. It wouldn't have pointed at Fuldu. I don't think see his motivation for making it this complicated.

This was the situation you had in mind originally, when you said:

The fact that he was the first to claim it speaks strongly in his favour.

Am I understanding you correctly?

2) Pro-town roles were blocked. The nightkill suggests that anti-town roles weren't. In this scenario, I don't see how Fuldu would have known.

a) Have you ever seen a role which blocks all pro-town roles but not anti-town roles before?

b) Blocked by what/whom? I'm assuming it's not town, seeing as nobody's claimed such an ability, we've all fully claimed, and that's not something a townie would lie about - unless, are you suggesting there might be a pro-town role which can block all pro-town roles but not anti-town roles

without being aware of it?

3) Thesp had a martyr-type role. Failing his post restriction meant dying the next night, but also blocking all night actions.

3) doesn't actually seem all that unlikely. Hmm.

a) When did this possibility occur to you?

b) Do you believe Thesp's death was a result of him failing to satisfy his post restriction?

c) Why/why not?

[Seol]

I had the first scenario in mind, but, thinking about it, I can see two more.

1) Fuldu is a scum roleblocker. In that case, I don't see why he claimed to be blocked. If only Fritzler were to have claimed a "no result," I would have just assumed that the remaining scum is a roleblocker. It wouldn't have pointed at Fuldu. I don't think see his motivation for making it this complicated.

This was the situation you had in mind originally, when you said:

The fact that he was the first to claim it speaks strongly in his favour.

Am I understanding you correctly?

Yes. I was approaching it from the opposite angle, I suppose. I couldn't see him doing it in the Fulduscum scenario I had in mind. I had been thinking of the second scenario earlier, but it applies equally really.

Oh, I think I get you. The situation that you thought had happened - Fuldu being a scum roleblocker - doesn't really make a huge amount of sense, so you were inclined to think that situation unlikely. So at the point when you made the comment, you didn't really have a situation in mind that you thought was plausible at all? Am I understanding you correctly?

It could be a scum ability, but that seems problematic. It could possibly be a one-shot scum role (otherwise it's hideously overpowered), but I don't see why that wouldn't be used Night 1.

The key point is that if it's a scum role, that would explain how scum Fuldu would know about it.

It seems far more likely that it is the latter.

ie, town. Do you agree we can eliminate the possibility that it was an ability knowingly used by town?

Do you believe it is plausible it was an ability used by town, or caused by a town role, but unknowingly?

3) Thesp had a martyr-type role. Failing his post restriction meant dying the next night, but also blocking all night actions.

3) doesn't actually seem all that unlikely. Hmm.

a) When did this possibility occur to you?

While I was typing that up, actually.

No, that's a lie. It's occurred to you before.

b) Do you believe Thesp's death was a result of him failing to satisfy his post restriction?

I think it is a distinct possibility. His posting restriction reminds me of my role in Verbose Mafia (in which PJ played) and my punishment for failing it was dying in the night.

Also, reading back, it is clear that he did fail his posting restriction.

As you have already pointed out. However, the day-scene and MO is quite explicit that he was killed by an external force. If he was killed solely by his post restriction, the flavour is not just misleading, it is an out and out lie, despite MOs being both consistent to date and with the one exception to that consistency exactly what you would expect not only from the role functionality but the flavour of that role too.

[Seol]

Oh, I think I get you. The situation that you thought had happened - Fuldu being a scum roleblocker - doesn't really make a huge amount of sense, so you were inclined to think that situation unlikely. So at the point when you made the comment, you didn't really have a situation in mind that you thought was plausible at all? Am I understanding you correctly?

Yes.

Alternatively, one of Fuldu/Fritz is a scum roleblocker lying about their result to cover themselves and spread confusion, but that doesn't seem all that likely.

That's the situation where it makes sense, and that was your

alternate

, not principle, theory last Friday.

Do you believe it is plausible it was an ability used by town, or caused by a town role, but unknowingly?

Yes, as I've said before, I think Thesp's role may have caused a mass block.

Without him knowing about it?

That is different from scenario 3 and that is what I had in mind earlier. This is not a lie:

I thought you said that the theory you had in mind earlier was that Fuldu was a scum roleblocker, and you only just came up with that theory when questioned?

3) Thesp had a martyr-type role. Failing his post restriction meant dying the next night, but also blocking all night actions.

3) doesn't actually seem all that unlikely. Hmm.

a) When did this possibility occur to you?

While I was typing that up, actually.

No, that's a lie. It's occurred to you before.

It only occurred to me while typing that that Thesp might have triggered his own death and blocked all other actions.

Well, we seem to be dealing with a role that blocks all night actions. I thought Thesp's role may have been a trigger for that or something. In retrospect, that doesn't really make sense, because it help scum.

Kind of a bad town role to have, though. A post restriction and a mass block. Perhaps he broke his post restriction the day before.

Actually, that works. Thesp posted something in caps every day except Day 4.

Explanation?

[Seol]

Firstly re: "No, that's a lie. It's occurred to you before", the distinction between what you claim to have originally been thinking:

2) Thesp failing his post restriction triggering a mass block (but not his own death)

I suppose my use of the word "mass block" is what is causing confusion here. I was referring to a block of all pro-town night actions, since it hadn't occurred to me that Thesp's death could have been self-inflicted.

And what you proposed when queried:

3) Thesp had a martyr-type role. Failing his post restriction meant dying the next night, but also blocking all night actions.

Is that:

a) it did not occur to you originally that Thesp's failing to satisfy his restriction would result in his death,
b) given that in this situation Thesp's death is unexplained your natural conclusion was that his role was limited to blocking pro-town roles only, and
c) you consider the two situations to be substantially different explanations for the results we got this morning?

Am I understanding you correctly?

Also, where are Fuldu, Fritzler and JDodge?

[Seol]

Hello?

[Seol]

fuldu first.

I'm back from complicated real world difficulties, hopefully for some time.

good to have you back!

As to the ambiguity, though, I don't think the role has been in any way ambiguous. My result on Foolster was unequivocally "not human." Foolster wasn't certain what he should claim, but that's a lack of clarity unrelated to my role results. I was told that any character that is not explicitly human would come out not human and that has been the case. I'm not even sure who the other ambiguous character you're thinking of is.

chicken boo was the other ambiguous one. yes technically it is unambiguously nonhuman but the whole point of the character is that it looks like a human, it's not unreasonable to think he might

investigate as

human.

i'm not saying you get wishy-washy results back, just that there are two roles where, for a pretty black-and-white result, it's arguably not clear to the claimant what would be returned.

Also, I think something that's missing in the discussion of whether I am a scum-roleblocker who saved his block in order to further my lies.

oh, the point of the discussion with vitaminr (from my perspective) is not to establish what happened last night, but what happened in vitaminr's head.

If it weren't for Thesp as an alternate explanation, such a lie would have no reasonable cover to hide in. And the notion that as scum I'd save a roleblock for later use in the hopes that something unexpected would happen the night I decide to use it that people might think was the cause of the roleblock is just silly.

i don't know what happened last night. i'm not really buying the thesp explanation - it seems pretty out-there - but i don't have any alternative theories that aren't equally out-there. but just to throw out a couple of possibles: you have a one-shot roleblock that can be used as well as your kill, you had a one-shot mass block that can be used as well as your kill, or you had noticed that thesp had a post restriction which he failed to maintain and thus was going to die and decided to block instead of kill to try and frame vitaminr as a godfather (yes, i know that would be instead of putting us in lol).

none of these are particularly good theories, i will give you that. but then neither is the thesp one, and as i don't think we're dealing with a simple straightforward situation i don't like drawing conclusions off wild-assed guesses.

[Seol]

re VitaminR: I started on the line of enquiry when you were throwing out what looked like very bizarre theories, which made me think perhaps you had more information about what happened last night than we did.

Conclusion: I don't buy it. There's no cast-iron contradictions but a lot of the explanations for apparent contradictions are semantic, and the thought process doesn't really make sense to me at all. Things like the "Thesp died as part of the mass block" being an afterthought after you cite the reason it occurred to you that night events were triggered by missing a post restriction were based on a game where failing post restrictions killed you don't gel - I can understand thinking it and dismissing it, but not that it didn't occur to you. I don't believe the thought process you've described is the one you actually had.

So I find different things scummy about two different people - VitR and Fuldu, who are two of the only three people who could be scum here (assuming it's Yakko) - not exactly a massively adventurous conclusion. My feeling is the case on Fuldu is stronger so my vote will remain there.

Sorry that took so long.