Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 1 - Game Over, Who Won!?

[dahen]

Accuse chaotic_diablo with a Shovel in the Garden

I'm not sure who is carrying the shovel in the garden here.

Accuse Jack

who wanted to get a vote in before they would start to get questioned.

[dahen]

unaccuse

For the first time ever I used the Notes function on this board to take notes instead of using another program. And now all my notes from all the Clue games are gone. Frustrating to say the least.

Does someone have this game cached or some general notes to share?

[dahen]

Oh, look. Jack can talk. Didn't you answer as if you had a post restriction?

FOS Jack

[dahen]

Prodded. I lost my notes in the crash and has since preferred looking at other games. Now I'm back, though.

[dahen]

MrBuddyLee: BT for hammering I assume. What other other obvious reasons have you found?

Don't let this day end too early.

BM: Jack said he thought you were scum (in addition to BT). Would you like to comment on that?

[dahen]

Sorry for my inactivity. I had to make a trip to the US and I'm sitting in a hotel room right now.

As for the game, I believe TCS and am inclined to vote for MBL, but I'd also prefer a claim. Tomorrow, if MBL turns up town, we lynch MBL, but not after hearing his result. If he got an innocent and then comes up as cop, he must be paranoid and we have nailed one scum.

If MBL is scum, I think BM is scum with him. Just look at Jacks comments before he died and how his attack on BM was turned away. Over all play from BM today has felt wrong.

Now, MBL: Claim!

[dahen]

BM: First, what exactly do you hate about my post? And why would it be admirable if I were scum but not if I am town? The point of scum is to pretend to help town, isn't it?
But not the way you did in your last post.
What do you mean you are still confident? You haven't posted anything that indicates that you were so confident in the interpretation. Please point it out if I am mistaken.

[dahen]

OK, I'm back. I requested replacement a month ago, but that message got stuck in my Outbox. I have been on vacation and work trips. I'm back to normal schedules now, which means that I will be active again. I'm a bit surprised over what's happened. I'll re-read and post some thoughts.

[dahen]

Doing a re-read:

BM: Hates a post of mine and have strange logics about what's good as scum/town. Also posts first after the cop's death and says he's confused.
Then he has a pretty crappy case against BT and tries to use all retorics he can to justify it instead of dropping it and finding someone more scummy.
Something is very wrong with BM.

BT: Does a good job defending himself, but it's an easy case to defend. However, I'm a bit surprised at the LyLo/no lynch thing when it first comes up, but further post are better on this.

CD: Is skimming and also wants BM to explain. Could be anything, but I have a bad feeling about him. His post regarding not no-lynch is good.

Regarding the follow up regarding TCS/BM/MBL, he is correct. And he is right that I advocated a lynch of TCS if MBL turned up town. However, he didn't. MBL was SK, TCS was cop. None was mafia, so nor mafia nor town would know who was what.

Mafia would probably guess that one was SK and one was cop (or two cops where one is non-sane) and, since TCS was onto MBL, also figure out who is who. However, mafia would definately not need to lynch one and then the other the next day, since mafia would probably nightkill the other. So I think CD's point doesn't quite work.

Also, I suspect that CD waited to bring this up until now (this was not any new information to me, at least) to let the heat of BM cool off. CD was himslef voting BM and I think he's trying to move us away from BM here. Also, he later votes Ectomancer without even unvoting to show he was voting BM. Then he even states that BM is town for suggesting no-lynch. I disagree completely.

alko: Asking questions but not stating much himself. I agree completely with his post #284 regarding no-lynch strategy, but I'd say this as town or scum and I think he would too.

Ecto: Has not made many impressions on me. Gut says town, but voting for arrogance. Hmm.

I have skimmed the last two pages and will read them more carefully. But I think I have enough for a

accuse: BM

suspect: CD

[dahen]

I'll follow up with a closer look at the last pages:

BT, appreciating the reread from you. I'm here and active now. I would prefer more if you were suspicious of everyone rather than following a no-lynch idea just because you are frustrated.

CD, I still think that your posts have a strange timing. Claiming that the nolynch idea clears BM after accusing him and then listing other people. I really hope you are testing something and that this is not a general idea of yours, because I'd always suggest no-lynch as scum in your games then to be cleared by you and then enjoy the free night kills.

And now you are crossing out BT from the list of scum as well for considering a no lynch?

Well, feel free to keep me on the list, because I will NOT no-lynch in this game, and I sure know my numbers. Someone is turning this into a discussion of lynching vs. no-lynching.
If those who haven't already could state their standpoint on this we could then move on and look for scuminess instead.

However, interesting to read that you don't advocate the no lynching idea. Now you are making more sense, but I don't like the fact that I'm on your list when we both believe that no-lynch is correct. It's also interesting how it was BM who asked you the question where you stand. I still believe you could very well be scum together.

Alko, I agree with parts of your reread post, but why would you prefer a DoS lynch?

However, the silencing ability is interesting. If it's normal of a town to treat silenced players as town, then it's logical for a scum with the ability to use it on scum or not at all.

In any case, scum would like to silence an info role, but is it likely that DoS has that kind of info for us?

A reason for using the ability is of course to get rid of a vote.

Mod: If a scum is silenced with equal number of scums and town, will scum win or will townies be able to vote off one of the scums.

CD: You are certain that HC and Alko are scum. But didn't you say Ecto and myself before that? And before that it was BM. Sure, it's fine to be flexible, but I think you are switching around your votes based on very little.

Many of you seem to be certain that we are at Lylo right now. Then it would be interesting to go over any quick-lynching possibilities.

unaccuse

to avoid a quick-lynch.

BM: CD has a point in that giving up the lynch hands the decision over to scum. Scum can choose to kill or scum can pass the ball back to town. Scum will do what scum thinks is best. The only thing town can do in order to disrupt scum is to try to lynch scum.

I don't have more time now, but if we are at ly-lo, then we should have some negative information from the lack of quick-lynches to take into account. However, quick-lynches can be hard to coordinate, so we shouldn't trust the info blindly, but it can still be valuable.

[dahen]

Considering the situation, it is most likely scum didn't know MBL's alignment and assumed that TCS was paranoid or something. It would have been an extremely persuasive argument to lynch two town players if it had followed through.
If MBL was town, then it would mean nightkilling TCS would be a waste of a nightkill. It would be easy to advocate a lynch on a cop with an inaccurate result. Given the circumstances of his claim, it wouldn't even be a challenge. However, since TCS's result was accurate, the nightkill switched to a higher priority.
The main point of the argument is that both were not part of the mafia inner circles. That means mafia should have been fine with killing either of them.

You are right in what you write here. TCS would be a waste of a nightkill. However, I question why you point out my statement about TCS/MBL. Do you disagree with my original post (#214).

I never voted for BM.

I'm sorry. My notes were wrong. You're cleared on that point.

However, I'm relying on the fact that it's BM

Hmm, OK. Do you know him well? Would he only suggest no-lynch as town, you say. Now he's saying that he thinks we aren't at LyLo and that he will vote. What is your interpretation of that, CD?

[dahen]

As for the game, I believe TCS and am inclined to vote for MBL, but I'd also prefer a claim. Tomorrow, if MBL turns up town, we lynch MBL(I figure this must be TCS), but not after hearing his result.

If he got an innocent and then comes up as cop, he must be paranoid and we have nailed one scum

.

I'm not quite sure what you mean when we've nailed one scum. If MBL is town and TCS is cop, it would mean we've nailed no scum at all. Now, the only thing I can think of is that you made a mistake. However, it also implies that you knew what was going to happen beforehand and slipped up with the inside information you had. Then you provided insight in your more rececnt posts.

The part in italics was supposed to explain this, but I notice I used the wrong terminology. Paranoid means always guilty result, yes? I meant insane, where you get opposite results. If MBL turned up town and TCS would have a innocent result on someone and we lynch TCS and he was a cop, he must be insane, which means that the person with the innocent result was in fact scum.
Of course he could be paranoid as well (only guilty results) but that seems cruel in a mini game.

You didn't answer my question regarding BM's LyLo switch.

[dahen]

I'm travelling (in Mississippi) with limited connectivity. This game will have to wait.

[dahen]

Now that Clue 3 has moved into night, I will focus on this game in a similar fashion. I will be away during the a prolonged week-end though, so don't expect anything until Tuesday.

[dahen]

That vote count is incorrect.
I have unaccused BM in my post 330.
You can read about my accusation in post 328 though if you want to know why I accused BM in the first place.

[dahen]

Holy... I just saw the deadline.

Mod

: Please send PM:s when setting deadlines.

I'll re-read this today to give a summary and place a vote.

[dahen]

At deadline, the first player to have reached at least half majority (assuming there is a tie) will constitute a lynch. Otherwise, there will be no lynch.

Ectomancer will die, unless we get two votes on
Battle Mage, Haschel Cedricson or chaotic_diablo by tomorrow
or three votes on somebody else. I'll focus on the Ecto,BM,HC and CD now and post in a few minutes.

[dahen]

OK, DOS was silenced. He should be allowed to talk tomorrow (hopefully) so I won't vote him today.

I argued with BM before, but I don't see why scum would argue back like he did. My notes have also put CD on the minus side, but reading through his posts, I can't see much of a reason for voting him either.

CES was very quiet, but HC took over with more aggression towards CD. I liked that then, but I don't like it now. Hard to explain.

Gut feeling in the middle of the night says

vote HC

At least I think it's a better candidate than Ectomancer who just unvoted BM.

[dahen]

reworded:

accuse HC

to be certain. Please post, all of you. I'll try to read as much as I can tomorrow.

[dahen]

Yes, you can DoS. What were your thoughts yesterday?

[dahen]

I would prefer if you did NOT claim. I don't think you are particularly scummy, so I don't need the claim for that. And I don't think the claim will help in finding scum either. Better leave scum in the dark regarding whether you are important or not to the town.

[dahen]

I've been looking at BT.

I'm sucking up to BM! Really! Good grief, BM is the last person I'd suck up to. I want to

lynch

BM... but I'm not getting what I want. Oh well.

First, he defends himself quite strongly. Then he makes sure to point out in the end that we doesn't get what he wants. It's as saying: "Look, I'm not voting Ecto, but I won't defend him either, because I like that you lynch him."
So, add a

Fos BT

from me too.

Not enough for a vote yet, though. I need to check on the rest of you guys. The voters of Ecto will get a first priority.

[dahen]

No need to prod me. I'm aware of this game. I'm just ignoring it. I promise to make an effort during my lunch break today. (In approx. two hours).

[dahen]

Ok. Let's see where we were.

What do we know from the setup?
We have one blackmailer (Mr Boddy) and one SK (Miss Scarlet).
We had a strangle Night 1, when both of these roles were alive.
Then we had a clobbering of our cop when there after Scarlet was gone.

Wadsworth later explains that Mr. Boddy is the man who has been blackmailing them all and that the police will arrive in forty-five minutes.
...
Wadsworth reveals that Yvette killed Mr. Boddy and the cook, under orders from Miss Scarlett, who killed the motorist, Yvette, the cop and the singing telegram girl.

In this game, Wadsworth was cop, Mr Boddy was blackmailer and Miss Scarlett was a SK. I say we have quite a lot of information from this and a name claim (no roles!) might be a good idea.

HC was able to find out that BT was Mr Green. I don't think scum would be able to find that out unless they are a scum pair, which I don't think is logical.

HC pinpointed BM for some reason (I don't understand how) to be Yvetter or Mrs Peacock. He then claimed Peacock. We are still missing Yvette.

DOS was silenced, and I think that this is made by the blackmailing (CD). I don't think CD was in a scum _team_ which means that DOS could be town as well as scum based on this.

I'd like name claims from Alko and DOS.
You probably want a name claim from me as well.

I suggest the rest of you together determines the order.

[dahen]

Prof Plum.
Alko, your turn.

[dahen]

CLAIMS:

al_kohaulec: The cook (last to claim)
Battle Mage: Mrs Peackock (after HC said Yvette/Peacock)
BillyTwilight: Mr Green, vanilla (after HC found that out)
Hashel Cedricson: Singing Telegram Girl, Clue Finder
dahen: Professor Plum (second last to claim)
DragonsofSummer: Col Mustard (silenced day 3, third last to claim)

Dead guys:

Jack, Mrs. White, Tracker, lynched Day 1
Ancalagon, The Cop, Clue Finder, strangled Night 1
MrBuddyLee, Miss Scarlet, SK, lynched Day 2
The Central Scrutinizer, Wadsworth, Cop, Guilty on MBL, clobbered Night 2
DOS post during Day 3 (Happened Night 2)
Ectomancer, The Motorist, Clue Finder, lynched Day 3
chaotic_diablo, Mr Boddy, Blackmailer, killed N3

I firmly believe that Yvette is scum and that Yvette is not left out in this setting.
That's why I wanted the claims.
If we assume that Yvette is among us and that one of us is lying, then based on the claim order, these are the percentages of getting away with a fake name claim:
Alko: 100 %
dahen: 50 %
Dos: 33 %
BM: Special: Forced to claim Mrs Peacock

Based purely on these numbers, Alko is our best choice. We need to be missing one character in this game. I think that the cook is a likely role to be left out (in Clue 3 it was the STG instead).

Of course, we shouldn't look only at numbers. I will do a reread on Alko now to look at his content and voting pattern as well.

[dahen]

Here's a post by post analysis of Alko:

accuse C_D for self voting again.
accuse: ancalagon, he's done nothing but lurk this entire game.

Appearantly just something to get started.

CES is town, he made a funny.

This probably doesn't mean much either. Notable is that he points out someone as townish instead of scumish though.

Yay! We're back down to playing only one game and not three! I'm not sure I ever saw any of the other two threads...

Nothing.

@Dahen, wow, sadly I never realized we had a notes section, it's another area I just overlooked.
@Jack, so... what, were you trying to fake a restriction or something?

A valid question to Jack. I would have expected a FOS here.

This early in the game, trying to have a little fun is not a problem. It's just like random votes, it's not a big deal. Faking a post restriction late game is like random voting late game, it's a much bigger deal. If he would've prolonged his faking a restriction, than it would be a much bigger deal, but at this point it's nothing to worry about.

... but this explains the lack of FOS. OK.

Sounds good, I'm Mr. Boddy. Jack, you're next.

Obivously a lie/joke, but why did he choose Mr Boddy? Alko, feel free to answer. This joke was a small price for potentially creating a counterclaim from Boddy or a claim from Jack (or further counterclaims). Jack claimed Plum (also a lie/joke). If I didn't understand that these were jokes I might have felt compelled to counterclaim.

Vote: Ancalagon What do you mean by 'you're already dead'?

This time an immediate vote instead of first questioning to see if it was a joke. This is a change of behavior that is a little scummy.

Vote Count!

Nothing else. Not responding to Ancalagon's answer. Keeping his vote on Ancalagon here even though Ancalagon claimed to be joking.

Ok, this goes for all 3 Clue games I'm in right now. I am really busy with midterms and projects this week, so my activity will be pretty low (although admittedly it hasn't been too high on these games so far either) until I get some of this done, I will try to be more active once I start getting through all this work.

OK.

A couple of quick comments while I'm here.

First of all, I'm going to refer to BT's vote as though it were the lynch-1 vote, since that's what it was intended as and should have been.

As for my "let's see where this takes us" comment, the point was to:

A.) Get a claim from Jack. He had already given a roleblocker claim in Clue 3; I figured that another claim from him in a different game would give us some gauge to judge his alliance in both games.

B.) See what TCS would do. I wanted to test his promise of a hammer vote; if he had backed off of that I would have been more suspicious of him.

A.) You put him at lynch-1, meaning one more vote and he's lynched. How do you expect to get a roleclaim from somebody who's been lynched? TCS has been advertising the hammer, and you knew it, and yet you still layed down the lynch-1 vote for "a claim" which we could easily get at lynch-2.

B.) This goes against your case A. You want to see what TCS would do, and the expected result is that he'd hammer. You also say you don't want to hammer, and yet with somebody who's intention it is to hammer, yours essentially is a hammer vote anyways.

As I have said before, I wouldn't have hammered Jack myself but I was not against a Jack lynch. I don't suspect TCS because I don't think he'd hammer so quickly as scum in this game and because he is defending an easy lynch target (me) as opposed to going all out against me.

So why would you not want to hammer Jack, but still be a proponent to his lynch? Why would you come so close to a hammer vote if you wanted not to hammer, and also wanted a claim before the hammer?

I find this all pretty contradictory, so

Vote: BillyTwilight

No comment about Ancalagon. No unvote.
The points (A and B) are valid and it's a good vote for BT.
BT is not confirmed town, but he's confirmed non-Yvette at least.

To be continued...

[dahen]

Well, he wasn't then, but now he's pretty dead, don't you think?

chaotic_diablo, Mr Boddy, Blackmailer, killed N3

[dahen]

I've been prodded.
Expect a post with continued reasoning tomorrow.

[dahen]

Sorry for not posting Saturday.
Here are my continued analysis of Alko:

Does anyone else care to comment on the curious interaction between Messrs.

Messrs?

Nothing.

Yeesh, I'm doing bad right now, I do intend to respond to the post Billy referred to, and have been ever since I first read it, but my schedule right now definitely isn't going to allow it of me.

Good news though, this week is the last week of classes, next week I finish up finals, and then I'll have summer and a little more free time. I do promise to respond to that post ASAP though, I will say for now that I did not agree with everything in it, though.

Ok, we can all be busy.
Let's see when the answer comes.

EBWOP: Based on his play so far in all three games, I'm inclined to believe that TCS is town, but until I have time to look things over, I don't know what to say about his cop claim.

Doesn't FBI normally find out the SKs?

I don't know about that. But I know there is still no answer TCS' question.

(too long to quote, please read it)

This is the last real content Alko posts. I think this post is quite scummy and for the rest of the game from this point on Alko only seems confused.

accuse al_kohaulec

[dahen]

This was fun.