Mini 387: Suicide Bombers, GAME OVER (at last)!

[HackerHuck]

Greetings all.

I'll dig through the thread on Sunday and give you my thoughts.

[HackerHuck]

Wow, this is a tough one to follow. I'll definitely need to reread it all in the next day or two, but I wanted to get some of my thoughts out first.


Regarding the game mechanics, we have two ways to improve our situation. If I understand the rules, the bombers place a bomb on a specific person. So if we inadvertantly lynch a townie, we want to lynch a townie that's got a bomb. That's worth noting, since scum may try and divert our attention away from bomb-toting townies.

I haven't put together my top three. If that's still desired then I'll oblige.

I'm not sure why there isn't more support for the Masterchief lynch. Given Twito's and Dead Riki's correct assessment on Ubertimmy, I find that Masterchief fits that same bill. He doesn't seem entirely scummy, but he's absolutely not playing for the town.

On a similar note (I'll channel Pablito a bit here), I'm not sure why there has been limited support for a neongrey lynch. She managed to post every couple of pages with some excuse about not posting and a promise to post later. The only time she got any real scrutiny was when she flaked out on the top three listings. I'll give Kelly a point here for pushing Neongrey a bit.

I don't like the wagon on the Central Scrutinizer. Had there been less lurking, I think this lynch would have already happened. I agree that he's made some really poor plays, but I get the feeling that he's just really frustrated town at this point.

Molestargazer had been playing the "kind of a newbie" card a bit too much for my liking. He tried to slow the Ubertimmy lynch and then led off the day by rolefishing. Now, with the mechanics behind this game I would probably let that slide, but his response to Jack's fishing question is where I think he's using the newbie card to his advantage.

Pablito is really sticking in my mind as a bit scummy. I don't understand the point of his day one/early day two play. He first pointed out how scummy sherlock was acting and then he didn't do too much until joining the Timmy wagon on a die roll. The start of day two had him talking about how little he did day one and his votehopping. I think he might be setting us up to explain away any strange behaviour he has in the coming days.

STD has been lurking a lot. He shows up and

seems

to contribute, but aside from his votes and request for info for mole there really wasn't any content. The top three posts outs his scumpair of Mole and TSC and he plants the convenient excuse of "playing with blinders on" for in case he's wrong.

Kelly has shown both town and scum moments to me. I have to agree with one of TCS' comments where he said that she's said a lot without saying anything. I find her one-sided questioning to be a bit suspicious and her lynch targets have all been fairly safe as well. I do however, agree with a number of her comments, especially her read on C_D and his list of three.

Jack seems to be actively hunting scum on all fronts. Probably the most town person in my eyes right now.

I find Chaotic Diablo to be leaning toward town. He's had some interesting discussions - the shoddy argument, his stealing example, and the witch hunt. Along with some other analysis, I don't see much that doesn't indicate town. I did find it odd that he mentioned never hearing of a lyncher before, but then uses it as one of the four possibilities to explain Twito's success.

I find Riki and Twito more on the town side based on their contributions to the Ubertimmy lynch. Depending on how the mechanics of this game play out, I may reconsider this.

At this point, I'm going to

Vote: Molestargazer

He seems pretty scummy in my eyes and if he turns up scum, that will clear a few people since I doubt scum can afford to sacrifice any of their own.

[HackerHuck]

Sorry I haven't taken the time to do my reread and post quotes and all that bollocks.

I'll give my top three with some explanation. I see the wording of the request was top three suspicions and not top three to vote. I've kept that in mind for my list.

Wow, as I was going back through the posts of my top three, I've got to reshuffle. I originally had STD at number one suspect but I just don't see it when I looked at his posts in isolation. I still think he could be scum, but he just dropped off my top three. Sorry Mole, back in first place.

#1 - MoleStarGazer: I think I hit on this already. Downplays scummy behaviour with newbie card when convenient. I get the feeling that he's not as absentminded and newbie as he pretends.

#2 - Pablito: Pablito's behaviour is a bit erratic. In some posts he's begging to be called scum and in others I see him preparing us for his pending scummy behaviour. It's as if he's being so obvious that no one wants to believe it.

#3 - The Central Scrutiniser: Very scummy behaviour and not too much townlike behaviour. I can understand why everyone is on his wagon, but I'm not totally sold on his guilt. I just finished a game with him, I still wanted to vote him even after a cop claim that wasn't countered. That's what's keeping me from a vote right now.

Damn wootoff keeps distracting me, so I apologise if this is a bit incoherent.

Who's next?

[HackerHuck]

HH granted the pole position by his theory that "if we inadvertantly lynch a townie, we want to lynch a townie that's got a bomb."

Also, having MGS and TCS in his top3 looks like the perfect excuse for lynching either without having to explain enough(since the probability of one of them being lynched is high).

Have you placed Kelly in the number two spot now that she’s said pretty much the same thing?
I'll give her kudos for dropping that line, since it's a subtle case for her own innocence.

Nice reach on the second part. If that were true, why did I avoid the TCS bandwagon and place the first vote on MSG?

Pablito is still not giving me a pro-town feeling. Kelly's case on Jack is quite weak, so the "yeah, sure" vote on Jack seems to be pushing a wagon for no reason.

Vote: Pablito

[HackerHuck]

Hate to be a bum and all, but if people look back at how the wagons went yesterday...they'd have seen that there was a TCS lynch all ready and available. It was there for anybody's taking. But then BA, me and TCS joined up on the MSG lynch at the most appropriate time (I admit I tried to stop the MSG lynch early on, but at the time it counted most, I was pushing the MSG lynch) to tie up the TCS vs. MSG wagons. Then stuff happened and MSG was lynched.

This sounds like scum pointing out how well he distanced himrself from MSG.
The way he was playing, I wouldn't be surprised if all the scum were on his wagon.

I think BA is not where we should be searching.

Does that mean that BA carries a bomb?

[HackerHuck]

Mod

One more clarification, please. If there is a cop (or other non-vanilla role) - and said role is the only survivor - then we would lose?

The only other explanation I can see is that there are no non-vanilla roles.

I

really

don't think a cop should claim. Odds are that the cop has only confirmed an innocent, so that would just be putting the cop at risk. C_D's plan is only sound as long as the bombers can only kill when they are killed.

That really seems to give the cop too much protection, so I don't find it very likely in this situation.

[HackerHuck]

Well, this makes me certain that the cop shouldn't claim - unless someone has been found guilty.

As we approach endgame, the scum would want to avoid planting a bomb on the cop since killing him isn't their win condition.

I'm not sold on C_D though.

[HackerHuck]

I think we might be a little too cautious right now. We should lynch lynch lynch.

Sure.

Confirm Vote: Pablito

There's really no harm in being cautious is there?
We can't get too confident with our odds here. The mod may have given us a good number of power roles. Although they might help us catch scum, they won't help us win at the end of the game.

[HackerHuck]

There are a number of possibilities that could come into play here. Since we haven't lynched anyone carrying a bomb, we don't know if there would be collateral damage. We could also have power roles that aren't as much help as they usually would be - i.e. a tracker and a doc, or maybe even a role blocker. The fact that the mafia targets aren't exposed come morning limits the power of those role types. Coupling that with the fact that vanilla townies must survive and our odds could well diminish.

All this speculation is quite interesting, but it really doesn't change anything. We need to find at least one more scum. Rushing things doesn't make sense to me whether we've got one or two scum left. We can give ourselves that pat on the back once the mod says we've won.

[HackerHuck]

Also, I'm not dead set on putting HackerHuck into absolutely must be town pile. I thought that him starting in the game by voting MSG was indicative of him being town, but all other actions from him aren't putting me at ease. I know he's good scum too, so I wouldn't put it behind him either to bus MSG on his entry. And as he just entered, he wouldn't have known about any bombs on TCS I guess, so I have to think that the inclusion of TCS on his list is not really indicative of towniness (I previously posited that wanting both TCS or MSG dead was not a good scum move)

Thanks for the compliment, but where have you seen me as good scum?

I really like that post, since it got my wheels spinning a bit more. Pablito moves a bit down on my suspicions. I took a look at some of the patterns indicated in the top three lists and it got me scratching my head a bit. I even looked at some different weighting options and it still came up with the same order of suspicion down through the top four. I have a new theory, but I want to sit on it for a day to make sure that it still fits when I'm a little less tired.

I just noticed that the first post states town wins when "...at least one townie survives." I know the mod had stated "vanilla townie" at some point, but I can't recall if the first post ever reflected the vanilla bit.

[HackerHuck]

HackerHuck it was Speed Mafia where you were good scum, you got SK killed though for no real reason.

Also, I think Kelly Chen put on the fourth vote of C_D. I think we're at lynch minus one.

Kelly would probably disagree with you about me as good scum. She recently got me lynched on D1 and I still don't know what I did wrong.

I'm going to hold off on my theory until the current wagons are resolved. I don't think it's strong enough to derail a lynch, but I'd rather let things take their course for now. Even with my theory, I'm not ready to move my vote.

[HackerHuck]

You wake up. As you expect, nothing seems to have changed.

Vote: Pablito

Mod-Thanks for the game and good luck at basic.

[HackerHuck]

HackerHuck, you hinted at a "theory" late yesterday which you didn't reveal. Today, it seems that you have no intention of fleshing out the theory or even changing your idea of the theory. I need to hear your theory now. And why vote me so early, because if your theory or contribution could have helped prevent c_d's lynch yesterday, then why did you fail to act then?

I'm glad you reminded me of this. My theory is a bit of a stretch, so I wanted to avoid putting it out there so that the c_d wagon could run its course. Although I didn't think c_d was scum, I wasn't sure enough to put up a theory that might look like a smokescreen. You're right that I probably shouldn't have voted you right off, but I did forget about my theory. I can't seem to find my notes, so I'll need to reread the posts that I had keyed on to.

Do you just want to keep me around so that I can force lynches and then in the end lynch me? Because right now I'm thinking that the bombers just love me. Why else would I get targetted early early D2 and somewhat early D3 and now early early D4. The bombers have clearly not targetted me because they think they can lynch me.

Why does "nothing has changed" suddenly implicate me?

I would have unvoted here since I did make a mistake by not going back to my little theory, but this bit of your quote makes absolutely no sense. I'm voting you, so why would you say I want to keep you around? The bombers aren't targeting you? How could you know that? I find it hard to believe that you honestly forgot the game mechanic here, considering we once again had no night kill. This playing dumb further cements my suspicions of you. I would also think that the "nothing has changed" is quite simple to understand. I was voting for you yesterday and nothing had changed to make me switch my vote.

[HackerHuck]

Also

FOS: BA + HH

for not calling me out before I lynched. I find it cowardly that you both failed to try to stop me before I lynched c_d. And I think I projected my intentions well well in advance of my actual action.

Huh? I said that I'm not sold on the c_d lynch, which is about as much as I felt I should defend him.

To clarify, I think scum are categorizing townsfolk in two categories:

1) These people are unlynchable, so I'll place a bomb on him/her so that when I'm lynched (because yes, to win, the final bomber must be lynched), he'll die.

2) These people are lynchable, so I'll just try to get him/her lynched instead.

Replace "place a bomb on" with nightkill and you have the standard scum theory.

I am not one those in category 1, therefore scum keep trying to get me lynched. Therefore someone who quickly switches suspects (much like Twito in some senses) is more likely to be town, because he as pro-town, can afford to think about as many suspects as he wants. He has no interests in keeping certain people alive.

I think that what you define as pro-town play matches how you've been playing this game.

Therefore, the more townie a person appears, the more scummy a person may actually be.

You will actually like what I have to say next about my theory.

[HackerHuck]

I too thought it quite odd that Dead Riki was the only person not listed in anyone's top three list. He also didn't have MSG or TCS or any of the top four "listing" getters in his top three. I took a look through his posts and a few things popped out at me.

Two of the three listed here are scum - you have to take my word for it. This is the weakest part of my theory and it repeats itself later - Why set up a scumbuddy when an innocent is also on the list? The Timmy wagon went very fast after this first post, so it may have been a risky move that backfired, a bold move to clear himself early, or he's town.

We are four days away from the deadline and we need a majority for a lynch.
It's time to check the current bandwagons to choose the best one.

*checks previous posts from ubertimmy, molestargazer and neongrey*

It's not because he already has the most votes, and it's not a random choice.
Between Oct 28 and Dec 10 ubertimmy posted 7 times with no content whatsoever.
According to the mod he has been prodded but hasn't posted in the last 8 days while posting frequently on other games.

This was his last post:

im very confused. i'll reread.

I think he is by far the best lynch among the three.

vote: ubertimmy

Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree, and we should be lynching the people who are talking the least?

No.
We should be trying to lynch scum, regardless of participation level.
If we say players a, b and c should not be lynched because they are talking a lot we would be handing them the game if they are scum.
If this was the rule all scum would need to do would be saying nonsense (like the KC vs c_d discussion) and they would survive o endgame.
What you really need to do is try to read into other players' participation (or lack of) and try to figure their true intentions.
If you read my post 219 about ubertimmy carefully you will see that there was more to see about him than simple lack of participation.

Interesting how he references a post that says the opposite of what he was trying to mean here.

He then leads the "game" of naming suspects. This conveniently publishes a list of people the scum should avoid placing bombs on.

Mole, can you give me a list of players from most suspicious

to least

suspicious?

Bold mine.
I don't like when everybody reveals who they are

not

suspicious of.
It draws a map for scum of who are the less suspected townies and they tend to wake up dead.
We just need to know who are more suspicious in order to lynch someone, let scum guess the rest.

That said things are too calm and I'm afraid we may end up having to choose on a deadline again.
I'd like to propose a game.
The name is "Top 3".
Each person says who are their top 3 suspects and

WHY

, and then choses who is the next.
11 are needed to play this game, let's play?

Notice how he uses conventional wisdom to sell this point. The unique mechanics of this game had not yet been mentioned, but scum likely would have known how nightkills work. Mole goes first - at Riki's request - and passes the baton back when Riki said he'd be unavailable for a while. Might be a connection there...

It's clear she's either too busy or not interested enough to really participate.

Or she is just stalling on purpose.
Let's skip her, I go next:

Seeing the other top3s before posting mine was very interisting.
It didn't change the "members", but quite scrambled the order.

First of all I was quite surprised on how fast ubertimmy was lynched.
Less than two hours after the post I proposed him as the best lynch he was already done for.
It's interesting how people didn't pay attention to this (maybe because ubertimmy was scum) but the fact is that I strongly believe there was scum in that bandwagon, desperate to look good on the voting records.

I suspect Kelly less because she put ubertimmy at two to lynch but 15 minutes after Kelly's vote

neongrey

also voted. For a lurker she was very fast to show up and vote. Not without looking confused saying that she didn't know ubertimmy was the best choice but we had no time. (notice that the explanation why ubertimmy was the best choice was two posts above).

Five minutes later

chaotic_diablo

hammered ubertimmy. The problem I have with it is that 2 hours earlier we had 4 days to get four votes. At the moment of c_d's vote. We had 4 days to get one vote, time enough to order a prod, give ubertimmy 48h to claim and all.
chaotic_diablo was number two on my list, but his thoughts on ubertimmy (similar to mine) decreased my suspicion on him.

Twito

, as pointed before, was not the "starter" of ubertimmy's bandwagon. He just kept pushing on timmy all day one without reason, with no night for cop investigation and with ubertimmy lurking there was no posting to be analized to "nail" him at the point twito claimed to have done so.
In my opinion it could have been ubertimmy and Twito's distancing strategy. Twito would keep pushing on timmy so they would not look to be together, and after the first of them showed up dead the other one would look protownish.

At the moment I proposed to Top3 my list in order of suspicion was:
Twito, chaotic_diablo, neongrey

After c_d's top 3 with his analysis of Twito my suspicion on him diminished, so the order was:
Twito, neongrey, chaotic_diablo

And now with neongrey's behavior I just can't stop thinking she is just stalling the game on purpose, specially since we have a deadline now.

My current list would be, in order of suspicion:

neongrey, Twito, chaotic_diablo

I would be very happy with a neongrey lynch.

Pablito

, your turn.

Only person on his top three to mention was Kelly, saying she's less scummy. She also happens to share his opinion on Neongrey (me) at this time, so he could be bolstering her image to promote that agenda or trying to move her into Pablito's group 1 so she can carry a bomb. Neongrey is a safe choice here, since she had lurked so much, but the inclusion of Twito is a little odd. I find his case on Twito to match my suspicion of him here. By discrediting Twito, he's also indirectly raising his prominence in the Ubertimmy lynch. We know C_D to be town, but he was so far down on anyone's list (BA was the only other person to select him) that it is a puzzling inclusion.

No one hammers TCS before I finish my re-reading.

After finishing reading TCS's posts I'm not confident on a TCS lynch either.
I still want to re-read some player's posts but at this moment i'd still rather lynch neongray.

Tries to avoid lynching someone with a bomb.

So if we inadvertantly lynch a townie, we want to lynch a townie that's got a bomb. That's worth noting, since scum may try and divert our attention away from bomb-toting townies.

That's useless unless we are informed if a lynched townie had a bomb in him/her.
If we are not we will just know who were bombed after we lynch a bomber and they die (making the info useless). That's considering my reading of the rules is correct.
In summary we could (in theory) try to get scum after a bombed townie get lynched by watching who tryed to avoid his/her lynch.
Actually I think this plan is rather scummy and only gives scum room to frame another townie. (look! X tryed to avoid Y from getting lynched, and Y was a bombed townie. X was probably who planted the bomb on Y!)
In the above example X was a townie framed for defending Y, a bombed townie.

Dismisses this idea as scummy, which happens to be the same theory I believe applies to his defense of TCS. It is worth noting that he has yet to place a vote other than his initial vote on Timmy.

Well, after reading everything since my last post my top3 have not changed.
HH granted the pole position by his theory that "if we inadvertantly lynch a townie, we want to lynch a townie that's got a bomb."

Also, having MGS and TCS in his top3 looks like the perfect excuse for lynching either without having to explain enough(since the probability of one of them being lynched is high).

Twito didn't improve much in my eyes. Most of the time just went for MC just because he doesn't like the player.

Since looks like neither of them will be lynched let me comment on the two serious candidates.

Looks pretty much like when I replaced into the game, in a deadline situation (not that close this time) and with a few candidates to choose from.

Both TCS and MGS seemed to play the newbie card this game, but between them TCS seemed most genuine, specially due to the Mole/Timmy interaction and rolefishing pointed recently in BA's post.
Between them I'd choose MGS.
We still have some days, what would favor more the town? talking more or lynching MGS and advancing the game?

I can hammer now if advancing is the best option.

Starts off by stating that his top three are unchanged (and still don't include the two people currently being wagoned). He also tries to slow the lynch by reminding that deadline is still a ways off - yes, that's also an uninformed town behaviour. OK, here's where my case really starts to get weak. Yet again, given the choice he picks the scum over the townie. Since he had already defended TCS, it might have looked odd to suddenly jump on the TCS wagon. If he's scum, this is a brilliant play. He's got some pretty good defenses here if he were to fall under suspicion, but it would still be a very bold play.

He shows up an hour later with a mop-up vote just in case StD's vote didn't count. A very active day for him - 7 posts, but this was the day of the game mechanics discovery.

When morning comes, he recaps the votecounts from the first two days and updates us on his top three. No mention of anyone else outside of the actual counts.

Last few posts are the third vote on c_d, a dismissal of Twito's suspicions on BA, Pablito and KC followed by a confirmation that he's all for the c_d lynch.


This is a tough case, because it hinges on Riki playing scum incredibly well. Not to say he couldn't, but it would require some bold moves.

[HackerHuck]

Huh? I said that I'm not sold on the c_d lynch, which is about as much as I felt I should defend him.

You said you had a theory, but you failed to say anything. Blah. Failing to act when you had some information is withholding power, and that's scummy to me.

I also said that my theory was a little unusual and I wanted to sleep on it to make sure it was worth mentioning.

To clarify, I think scum are categorizing townsfolk in two categories:

1) These people are unlynchable, so I'll place a bomb on him/her so that when I'm lynched (because yes, to win, the final bomber must be lynched), he'll die.

2) These people are lynchable, so I'll just try to get him/her lynched instead.

Replace "place a bomb on" with nightkill and you have the standard scum theory.

I am not one those in category 1, therefore scum keep trying to get me lynched. Therefore someone who quickly switches suspects (much like Twito in some senses) is more likely to be town, because he as pro-town, can afford to think about as many suspects as he wants. He has no interests in keeping certain people alive.

I think that what you define as pro-town play matches how you've been playing this game.

NO, this not standard scum theory. In this game, scum cannot NK to get rid of some unlynchable or powerful players in the game. They have to sacrifice themselves to get rid of the movers and shakers in the game. (Well that actually would mean that scum may intentionally act scummy just to get rid of some players - point against me.) I would consider standard scum theory, 1. lynch some fool 2. NK someone obviously pro-town so that suspicion on me dies out or some power role.

In this game, it's more like 1. lynch some fool who doesn't have a bomb 2. bomb someone who I don't think can get lynched or a power role.

We're saying the same thing here. Lynch the fools and bomb/nk the strong players.

there's a significant difference in who scum have to target for their lynch suspects this game. it always has to be someone who doesn't have a bomb on them. Therefore buddying up is also a good tell in this game. I think HH kinda fits the profile.

Not sure what you mean here by buddying up.

Thus, scum have extra work to do in this game. They have to make sure that no one listens to the pro-town players also while getting non-bombed players lynched. Scum have to worry about people being around, they just can't NK to get rid of their problems. Thus, you see that in my egotistical mindset right now, I'm getting attacked quite often and early because it would be good for scum if I get lynched...IE, option A. Plus, scum are not as likely to want to get themselves lynched just to take out someone UNLESS that person is so detrimental to the scum play that they would be willing to do a 1 for 1 or 1 for 2 payout.

Yes, that's intentional how I described what pro-town play could be in this game. So why are you still voting me then?

Because I don't believe you are right. Your erratic behaviour, while nicely fitting in with your earlier definition of "pro-town play", does not correspond to you fitting in with option 'A'.

All that said, I did forget to

Unvote: Pablito

based on my theory.

[HackerHuck]

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED ABOUT WITHHOLDING INFORMATION FROM YESTERDAY'S LYNCH?

Hackerhuck, would you like to tell them the answer?

Obviously the information I "withheld" was so vital to preventing the c_d lynch that no one has bothered to comment on it. Pablito has spent more time hassling BA for lurking than he spent even acknowledging my "case". Granted it's weak, but no one has said a word about it and we've had a number of people posting lately.

If you want some discussion, talk about that, not about some people who aren't contributing at the level you want them to.

[HackerHuck]

There is a STRONG correlation with the events of posts 875 to 900 and the infrequency of posts.

unvote, vote: HackerHuck

and don't ask for a reason because I'm not giving one. I've got a theory and I just want to see how things turn out first.

Isn't that a reason in and of itself?

You're really making too much out of my theory on Dead Riki. As I said, it was very weak and I wanted to think about it a bit before I posted it. Since I felt I was more likely to be wrong about c_d's innocence than right about Riki's guilt, I shelved it until now.

[HackerHuck]

HH, mind adressing some of the points theopor made in his long post? He didn't make much of the Dead Riki theory, I felt.

Sure.

As for a vote I'm going to sling my hat on Hacker Huck/Neon.


- Neon to start with, 22 posts in 23 pages.

The sum total of these posts are a random vote, her 8th and 9th posts both asking Twito for reasons for his UT vote. Post 10 refuses to vote UT. 15 comments on KC/C_D argument casts suspicion on both. 16 votes on UT sixth vote

I don't know that he's the best choice, but it's not like we've got a lot of time to mess around.

vote: ubertimmy

erm we still had four days, Timmy could have at least had time to claim. Backs the reasons up again here

Nah, wasn't any sneaking involved. I genuinely wasn't sure if he was a good choice (and I clearly don't mind being wrong), but, deadline. I didn't particularly feel like dithering over it, given the constraint.

Her last four posts which are between Dec 23 and Jan 12 - long old gap are just her telling us she's real busy and unable to offer anything. May be nothing in it but if MSG made the decision to go for TCS then I think he had no advice or help, a silent or a replacement. She brought nothing to the table whatsoever, MSG also failed to comment on Neon did so on everyone else

I won't bother to address the neongrey comments since I can't make excuses for her.

Makes point of pointing out MC's lack of help and then Neon's so that's good. However the then points out that he's not feeling a lynch on TCS say's he's frustrated town, bomb onboard, however next post TCS is in his top three suspects.

I don't see this as a problem. He was acting scummy so he made my top three list, but I felt Mole was a much better list.

Votes MSG and makes pretty clear reasons for getting shot of him, could be an elaborate plan to get shot of the Mole, no more crazy than his theory on Dead Rik.

?

Sees Jack as pro-town and points it out several times, goes for Pablito.

Hate to be a bum and all, but if people look back at how the wagons went yesterday...they'd have seen that there was a TCS lynch all ready and available. It was there for anybody's taking. But then BA, me and TCS joined up on the MSG lynch at the most appropriate time (I admit I tried to stop the MSG lynch early on, but at the time it counted most, I was pushing the MSG lynch) to tie up the TCS vs. MSG wagons. Then stuff happened and MSG was lynched.

This sounds like scum pointing out how well he distanced himrself from MSG.
The way he was playing, I wouldn't be surprised if all the scum were on his wagon.

Yup. I'm more suspicious of people who point out how town their own behaviour is.

Suspicion dies on Pablito after Pab posts the top three targets summary and makes sounds about scum wanting him lynched because he's not carrying a bomb, HH then lowers suspicion on Pablito before thinking of a new plan. However he decides to let C_D lynch first

I'm going to hold off on my theory until the current wagons are resolved. I don't think it's strong enough to derail a lynch, but I'd rather let things take their course for now. Even with my theory, I'm not ready to move my vote.

Didn't think I lowered suspicion on Pablito here, but Pablito's comments prompted my theory.

Even though he think's he's town, not very townie like to me

Although I didn't think c_d was scum, I wasn't sure enough to put up a theory that might look like a smokescreen.

Then posts his theory after C_D dies, and yeh some things Dead Rik look slightly scummy but why not post it the previous day, yeh DR's vote on UT could be seen as scummy but not as much as three after it in my opinion and yes he introduced the top three suspects game but this is as much a townie play as a scum one. Town want to get ppl's opinions just as much. Don't think there's any connection with Mole going first DR and MSG were in a convo at time makes sense. Makes point of no one wanting to lynch TCS but again this is just as much a townie move than scum, he hasn't read a few pages by the looks of things. Anyway to me it just seems he's trying to pin stuff on Dead Rik just as he was Pablito

The case is very weak and as I said before, I felt that I was more likely to be wrong about C_D's innocence than right about Riki's guilt.

[HackerHuck]

Oh, and just so that I don't leave out HH, and make him feel bad - I just want him to know that there will be hippogriffs.

And HH,

to what does

Didn't think I lowered suspicion on Pablito here, but Pablito's comments prompted my theory.

refer? What comments prompted the theory - is that your theory on DR - and was that the theory that you were holding off on during c_d's lynch?

It was your recap of his top-3 game and the multiple exclamation points after his count of Zero. That prompted me to look into the results of that game a little more and his name stuck out the most to me.

[HackerHuck]

Prodding the following:
Kelly Chen
Save The Dragons
Jack


I am also instituting a

One Week Deadline

. Day will end on

Monday, March 19, at 1:00 PM EST

. Just a reminder of the deadline rules:

10. When a lynch deadline approaches, you should try to get your act together. If a majority has not been reached at deadline then your lynch is forfeited. Period.

I just wanted to get this back on the page, since the deadline rules are quite important.

In no way is it in our best interest to have a no-lynch. Lynching will either kill us some scum, kill us a townie with a bomb, or just kill us a townie. One is good, one is breakeven, and only one is bad.

I'm really in favor of a different lynch probably Pablito or Maybe Theopor, but we can't have a no-lynch. If the wagon doesn't move to someone else by Monday, I will drop the hammer on Jack.

[HackerHuck]

Suggesting that, if we don't lynch anyone by Monday at 1 PM EST then we have wasted the day. Voting someone else is fine, but you better have a damn good case with the vote in order to get everyone to act before the deadline. Otherwise, making a vote with no substance is just a distraction to the town and poor play.

Why do you think that voting for Pablito is such a bad idea? I've iterated a number of reasons why I think he's scummy.

I also think you're getting a bit worked up about the deadline. Jack is only one vote away, so it will be quite easy to lynch him as long as the wagon doesn't disappear without moving to someone else. I even said I would drop the hammer as we approach deadline. If I don't deliver, then you'll have your lynch target for tomorrow.

[HackerHuck]

Eleven hours to deadline. Are we going to get anything else out of Jack?

[HackerHuck]

HH any reason why you failed to hammer Jack, despite saying you would?

I planned on hammering on Monday, but the wireless went out in the hotel I was staying at and I wasn't able to access the site before deadline.

Well that inclines me to take twito, HH, and STD as innocent.

I don't follow your logic there Jack.

[HackerHuck]

A question to those who claimed to have wanted to hammered (ie: StD and HH)

StD - why didn't you just unvote, vote Jack? You unvoted, then planned to hammer later, but knowing your own inconsistent presence lately, if you truly wanted to hammer, you would've done it in the same post as your unvote? Why didn't you hammer and/or what were you waiting for? What is your current thoughts on Jack and others?

HH - what do you think about Jack's statement that he feels more inclined to believe that HH, StD and Twito are innocent? You're not following his logic, because you don't trust StD or Twito or what more do you want from Jack?

by the way, I'm totally leaning toward StD for an odd reason.

I don't really buy that argument. Unless Jack were scum, there would be no reason for scum

not

to hammer. I really didn't get what he was trying to say at first, and based on your question I still might not understand why he feels we're likely to be town.

[HackerHuck]

Vote:HackerHuck

You didn't Hammer Jack when you clearly needed to.

I take it you don't believe my reason.

Does that mean you believe Jack and I are scum or do you think I chose not to hammer a townie for some reason?

[HackerHuck]

I would have preferred to hear from Blahgo first, but I'm going with my consistent vote of the player formerly known as Pablito.

Vote: Blahgo

I understand that he cannot defend against Pablito's odd behaviour, but I don't like the fact that he's not willing to elaborate on his thoughts.

[HackerHuck]

I guess blahgo felt it important to continue Pablito's bizarre behaviour.

I could go for two of those three, but it's probably a good idea for me to dig back through the posts.

[HackerHuck]

I don't like the vote on BA, but I see you've moved on Kelly. I doubt that BA as scum would have pounded on MSG the way he did. I also buy your theory on STD and his scum pairings push him to the townie side.

I will admit that I've had a hard time reading Jack in all of the games I've played with him in. I hadn't really found him scummy when we were in the thick of things and I'm still not really seeing the case on him. I'm actually believing his case on Kelly after I went through and read her posts again.

Vote: Kelly

[HackerHuck]

Yeah, I wasn't very clear with that was I. Shouldn't be posting at 3AM.

In rereading your posts, I was surprised at how bad you were at picking scum this game. The fact that you were really pushing hard for TCS over MSG was strange and I really didn't get a good feeling when I read back over your attacks on C_D.

I hope there aren't four bombers, since this setup seems to favor the scum anyway. We don't get any information during the night and we don't even get the benefit of a lowered suspect pool when townies are offed. If the scum don't know each other, that makes it even worse.

The only thing that gives me doubts about voting you now, is that I find it a little hard to believe you would place a bomb on TCS. Since the bomb placing mechanics are still unknown, I'm willing to take that chance now.

[HackerHuck]

I haven't been bad at picking scum this game. We've only lynched one scum that wasn't totally random, and I was on him. Jack back then argued that I was even trying to get onto him to distance from TSC.

Only one non-random scum lynched and you were on him? Whom are you referring to? I saw that when we lynched MSG, you were still pushing for TCS. Granted, he was in your top three list (he was only missing from C_D and Riki's lists), but you barely acknowledged his wagon.

I'm just looking back at who you've been pushing for...

Pushed hard:
C_D (town), TCS (town), Jack (unknown)

Pushed a bit:
Sherlock/Pablito (town), Neongrey/Me (town - trust me)

I haven't played with you too much before, but I would have expected a bit better track record here.

I'm glad I've reread your posts again. I'm starting to see what you've said about Jack. I would like to get some more input from the rest of the town to see if anyone has some insight.

[HackerHuck]

The non-random scum lynch was MSG. I see I wasn't literally voting him but he was one of my two. It's superficial to interpret that I was "still pushing for TCS" when MSG was lynched just because I was voting him; I had just suggested that someone should hammer MSG. I think you have to go back a number of pages to see me "pushing for TCS" over MSG.

Instead of counting how many town people I suspected I think you should look at whether there were good reasons to suspect them. You can't tell me I was wrong to suspect neongrey back in the day for instance.

No I can't, but I didn't really agree with many of your cases.

Actually if you reread your posts leading up to the hammer, it shows a clear preference for TCS over Mole and that mention of hammer was the only reference to making him your number one choice.

[HackerHuck]

I'm still baffled as to why you doubt my excuse for not hammering Jack. Do you honestly think there are two scum still?

Anyway, I posted a similar message in the other games I was playing if you care to check.

I do agree with Kelly that his claim seems to make no sense to me in a game like this, but I also don't know why he would bother to make something up.

[HackerHuck]

So you're suspicious of me because Neongrey was a lurker?

[HackerHuck]

I'm not opposed to a mass claim. I'm surprised at all that we have any special roles, but I can't believe Theopor would make this up. Of course, he's now a very safe lynch. If he's telling the truth, he won't really help us win unless he manages to block the bomber tonight. His survival to endgame doesn't help us - remember that our win condition requires vanilla townies to survive - so the bomber won't bother placing a bomb on him.

At the very least, a mass claim might provoke discussion, which is sorely lacking in this game.

I'll go first if you want...

[HackerHuck]

That doesn't make him a "very safe lynch," because we'd have to use up this lynch opportunity to do it.

I guess mass claim would do nothing but reveal somebody else who the bomber/s should avoid. That intent of that post seems tranpsparently scummy.

Doesn't it go without saying that the danger of any wrong lynch is that you've wasted a lynch?

The only downside to being wrong on his lynch is that we lose our lynch. We're not worried about losing our majority status for voting the following day and his death won't impact our win condition. I didn't say we have nothing to lose by lynching him.

Sure it will give the bomber an opportunity to find out who else to avoid, but might also give us some discussion points that would lead to finding out who the remaining bomber is. Sitting around doing nothing certainly won't.

[HackerHuck]

Vote Twito

Care to explain?

[HackerHuck]

Why not just vote Kelly and we can all go home happy?

[HackerHuck]

I can see why you might think my post was "surprisingly scummy", but I did lay out the risks that would be associated with it - the one that Kelly mentions as being transparently scummy. If anything, I was hoping to ramp up a little more discussion. I find it a little hypocritical that there was concern directed at me for the suggestion, when Theo himself outed a "power role" and no one complained.

Theopor, do you know of a (game related) reason why Riki may have missed blocking during his two days?

[HackerHuck]

^^I like this guy!^^

[HackerHuck]

It occurs to me that if it's lylo and there's just one scum left, inHim is clear (although he might have to not be roleblocked to win or something). You can probably make more deductions like this... Pretty sure Twito and STD would be clear for instance.

Don't know that it really clears Twito, but I see your points on the others. We may also be in an almost LYLO situation, where we only lose if we lynch a townie that doesn't have a bomb.

If you really believe that we're at LYLO, than your argument against my mass claim idea holds even less water.

[HackerHuck]

Here's the WIFOM argument of the day. Was Twito posting the real role PM or was he scum and really trying to toy with us?

[HackerHuck]

I think HH was kidding. But I would still like to know why:

If you really believe that we're at LYLO, than your argument against my mass claim idea holds even less water.

How can you think my argument didn't hold water when in the post where you suggested mass claim you spelled out exactly why scum is glad to know that theopor_COD is not a townie.

Going back to your assumption, you also mentioned that you thought we were at LYLO and there's only one bomber. If that's the case, then LYLO means that whatever happens today ends the game. In that case, there's really no harm in outing a power role since the bomber is either going to win or lose and would have no opportunity to place another bomb. The only way that you can really attack me for giving the scum ideas is if there is more than one scum left.

InHim, why do you think we're not at LYLO?

[HackerHuck]

HH was practically suggesting a theo lynch earlier ("very safe lynch"), which makes me think that is a terrible move. As far as I remember HH doesn't even particularly think he's scum, when he's saying that.

I don't doubt theo's claim because 1. he didn't need to claim, 2. the claim definitely doesn't sound very fitting to the theme, and 3. as a result of claiming nobody different was suggested as a lynch choice or not a lynch choice. (Other than himself, I guess.)

Funny, I also said in that post that I don't believe he was lying about his claim, because it wouldn't make sense to lie. I did say that his role is a safe lynch, because if he has a bomb, lynching him doesn't put us in a worse position (number wise) and if he doesn't have a bomb, it won't matter either since we can't win if he's our only survivor.

Anyway, I think that's what InHimShallIBe is actually trying to say...

[HackerHuck]

I have to admit, I wasn't all too sure that Kelly was the last bomber. I must admit that things got a bit painful near the end and I'm really disappointed that both Blahgo and Twito ruined things a bit - although I'm not sure that they hurt the town all that much. Thanks for finishing things up for us Glork and thanks to Mike for the interesting theme!

[HackerHuck]

Yeah, the accidental no-lynch probably helped in getting me lynched, but Jack was also one of the ones pushing for Kelly, so I think it may have been irrelevent.

I think the setup was actually pretty well balanced, but the town got really lucky with the first two lynches. I was having a lot of trouble reading most people, so I was only looking for anomalous behaviour, which led me to that brilliant case on Dead Riki.