Mini 378- R&GAS: GAME OVER

[Jack]

VoteThAdmiral

There hasn't been a cop in the kills list. TCS hasn't been counterclaimed. He says ThAdmiral is guilty. This isn't rocket science.

Lynch -1

[Jack]

Also, hello everybody

First read through: the "rich" guy seemed scummy but Hacker seems innocent. Serinah seemed quite scummy which makes me think she might have been vigged. Don't have an opinion either way yet on rogue_two (mikeburn), Jules, or Bogre.

...

On reread, there were two kills round one, and serinah mentioned on the first page that she "fancied her role" so a SK is more likely. This adds further credence to TCS's claim, I can't see a game with two killing parties and no cop.

[Jack]

ThAdmiral wasn't posting much content. Bogre and ThAdmiral were voting eachother day 1 which could be a distancing tactic. I don't like rogue_two's vote for bogre instead of rosso. I'm surprised Rosso was lynched. ThAdmiral was fifth on the bandwagon. TCS dropped the hammer though. ThAdmiral did seem to be fishing earlier although I do agree the cop should have spoken up. I don't think it's clear that we're in lylo though. I suppose HackerHuck is rolefishing as well but But if they think it's lynch or lose then they wouldn't care about a cop at all, maybe a vig and ThAdmiral did fish for the vig. I do find the way HH and ThAdmiral are sure it's lylo suspicious, the game setup isn't known. Maybe they are scum who know it isn't lynch or lose and are eager to get rid of the cop. TCS really does sound like a cop. Bogre says someone is post rescrictioning him, I'd like him to elaborate, could be a scum tactic. I don't like HH's switch to TCS. Still don't have an opinion on Jules, he seems to have slipped under the radar, he doesn't have an avatar though. He is voting Admiral though.

Sorry for the rambling style, I wrote it while reading.

[Jack]

I feel pretty confident that we're at LYLO, because the only way we're not is if there are only two mafia. It's possible, but I think it's so unlikely that it's worth the risk to assume we're at LYLO.

I don't know, in a game called "Rosencrantz

(1)

and Guildenstern

(2)

are

scum

" I don't find 2 scum improbable. It could be balanced by a dearth of pro town abilities.

I find Scrutinizer's vote on Maz totally at odds with his innocent claim and his justification makes no sense in my eyes.

I don't know about this, cops often do things to appear "not cop" before claiming. He also cast doubts on there being a cop at all, for example.

[Jack]

Who was playing the questions game with rich_25 before the crash?

[Jack]

Interesting. Here's what I think.

If there are two mafia and 1 SK, we should lynch ThAdmiral and rely on
TCS to help us find the scum. Shouldn't be too hard

If there are three mafia and 1 SK this complicates things. If we lynch
ThAdmiral we lose, he is indeed correct on that point.

I'll

unvote

pending discussion.

However

, I'm not entirely sure he's the Serial Killer. He could be scum.
If there are 3 scum left and he's one of them then if we don't lynch him
and lynch a townie instead we probably lose. I don't think we could count
on the real SK counterclaiming.

So, there are two options I see. We can

a) Assume there are two scum based on the title, and lynch ThAdmiral. I favor
this option.

b) Lynch someone else. If ThAdmiral is SK and there are 3 scum I think
they are HackerHuck, Bogre, and mikeburnfire(rogue_two). We could lynch
one of them and have him kill one of the others. I think we can count on
getting 1 or 2 scum with this method. This will leave 4 alive. If we
get one mafia then the mafia win. If we get 2 mafia then we either have
3-1 or 2-1-1. Considering it more carefully, I don't think it changes
anything if he's scum instead of SK.

It comes down to how many scum we think are in the game. I think there are
two from the title of the game, and because ThAdmirals claim smells like
a desperate mafioso (1 of 2, convincing us to lynch a townie or the real SK
would be quite a bonus for them).

[Jack]

based on how the voting and discussion has gone this game that mikeburnfire is almost certainly mafia,

Oh? Do tell me how you arrived at such a conclusion. Are you basing your accusations on my predecesor's behavoir or on one of the two posts that I have made?

You avoided posting content last page even though you'd just replaced into the game and this page all you have is one post arguing in favor of lynching the SK, which actually makes you look like mafia since they want him out of the way. I think the three mafia theory has been disproven by the way ThAdmiral is still alive when TCS was already voting him and all they had to do was pile on for the win. I think we have two mafia out of HH, Bogre, and mikeburn. I would like the

MOD

to prod Jules though.

If we lynch ThAdmiral today we can be practically guaranteed to lynch scum tomorrow with TCS's investigation. The following day is less clear though.

If we go with TCS's plan and lynch mikeburn and have ThAdmiral kill Bogre we can have this thing wrapped up by tomorrow if they're the scum or if HH is guilty. This is a better plan. I think we need a little more discussion though. I've posted on mikeburn and previously mentioned reasons for Bogre and HH but I'll write those up in more detail.

[Jack]

Ok here's something I've been thinking about. In the play, Rosencrants and Guildenstern play a game called the questions game. I believe they are the only one's who play it. From the thread title R&G are scum. Originally I thought Bogre's claim of having a posting restriction was a way to get out of conversation, but it's occurred to me that he could be scum with a posting restriction, following the theme. Either way it's scummy.

When I first read the thread rich_25 stood out as really scummy. He didn't get lynched because people thought he was the jester, but HH hasn't acted like a jester. HH sounds less scummy but I think he's just better at being scum. Today HH said it was lynch or lose to get the cop to come forward and then tried to lynch him. Very scummy.

[Jack]

all you have is one post arguing in favor of lynching the SK, which actually makes you look like mafia since they want him out of the way.

... and a townie shouldn't? Honestly, I'm in favor of lynching a person who has admitted to not being on the town's side.

A townie shouldn't if lynching the SK means game over. You didn't even discount that possibility, you just said it 'would be too hard if there were three scum so you'd prefer to believe there weren't'.

If we go with TCS's plan and lynch mikeburn and have ThAdmiral kill Bogre we can have this thing wrapped up by tomorrow if they're the scum or if HH is guilty. This is a better plan.

...the hell? You would lynch me, an innocent, and trust the serial killer, whose interests are not pro-town? This is a better plan than lynching the serial killer? Are you high?

Going by numbers I think lynching ThAdmiral is the better plan. It's certainly safer. But if we're are a bit confident in our suspicions then TCS's plan is better.

btw, the SK doesn't have pro town interests per-se, but he does want to kill mafia.

I know that I missed some things on my read of the game, but please remind me why are you and Jules cannot be scum.

I'm just thinking out loud man. I know I'm innocent and I've accounted for the possibility of Jules being scum in my scenario.

[Jack]

But if we're are a bit confident in our suspicions then TCS's plan is better.

First of all, the roughly outlined plan to lynch me was only one of options that TCS listed, so stop trying to shift all the responsibility onto him by calling it 'his plan'.

Secondly, how confident can you even be? The only thing that I've been accused of is trying to lynch the SK, which I admit that I was.

Well here's my point of view: Lynch ThAdmiral. We know ThAdmiral is scum and we know TCS is innocent. I think we can assume there are two mafia. That leaves 4 with 2 scum. The mafia will probably kill one and TCS will probably get a result. This leaves us knowing one of both of the scum tomorrow if all goes well. However it's quite likely we end up with only a 50/50 shot the last day if the mafia kill TCS.

With TCS's plan (just shorthand man, I'll call it Jack's plan if you want though I haven't made up my mind who would be the best choice for lynch and NK), I think we can get better odds. Mathematically it's inferior as I said, we only have 2/5 chance of lynching scum and 2/4 of NK'ing scum. But personally I think there is a much better than 2/5 chance that Bogre is scum. If we can lynch and NK correctly we win today. If we miss both we lose, granted, but I really doubt we'll miss both.

I've accounted for the possibility of Jules being scum in my scenario.

It seems to me that you've been avoiding talking about Jules. In fact, whilst rattling off the plans for killing me and investigations and whatnot, you've not even mentioned Jules, aside from a prod request.[/quote]

He hasn't given me anything to talk about. No posts today. I said in my first go through that I hadn't a clear opinion on him either way.

[Jack]

Do you oppose the plan because TCS said lynch you? I would go for lynching Bogre and having ThAdmiral take out HH personally. You come off townie in the last few posts here. I'm going to wait for the prod on Jules before voting though.

[Jack]

I'm thinking lynch bogre and have ThAdmiral NK HackerHuck.

[Jack]

I'm thinking lynch bogre and have ThAdmiral NK HackerHuck.

How do you so easily trust ThAdmiral?

He wants to kill scum right?

[Jack]

Yes. He wants to kill everyone. That's what makes him the SK.

Right. If we lynch scum today and he kills scum tonight then he loses, he knows that. But if we lynch scum today and he kills town then he'll be lynched. There is no way for him to win in this scenario, so there's nothing in it for him if he doesn't try and kill scum. If we lynch town he will try and kill scum because he has to eliminate the scum. If we lynch him today we'll have two unknown scum tomorrow, if we don't we'll have 1 unknown and 1 known scum.

[Jack]

Vote:Bogre

[Jack]

I just don't see what his plot would be.

[Jack]

Mr. Flay, I'd rather you name claimed first. Your predecessors were quite suspicious, and you could be looking for a safe claim.

[Jack]

We might out some scum...but we might reveal the doctor (if there is one). William shakespeare doesn't imply serial killer though so that might be safe.

[Jack]

I think the mafia will probably kill ThAdmiral and so we would just be wasting our lynch. Surely they can't afford to have him around.

[Jack]

I'm not sure I buy that.

[Jack]

Act 3, Scene 2

“Who goes there?”
“Isn't it obvious?”
“Isn’t what obvious?”
“Who goes here.”
“I’m asking you!”
“And I am answering.”
“Well, answer then.”
“I already have. Must I reiterate?”
“To reiterate you must have first iterated.”
“And so I have.”
“It appears it is I who must reiterate. Who goes there?”
“It is I,

Jules

, a

Townsperson

.”
“And how is that obvious?”
“Because it is written.”
“Then you are the writer?”
“Indeed.”
“But

Tom Stoppard

is the writer, and he is dead.”
“Correct.”
“Then how can the play go on?"
“The play must go on. The play always goes on.”

“Did you really think you could get away with it?”
“I am a writer, and the writer always does.”
“Even Mr. Stoppard, who you just killed?”
“...”
“I'm on to you,

ThAdmiral

, and to your partner. You will not interfere-”
“Partner?”
“Don't patronize me, a child of four could see it- just look at the votes!”
“But my dear

Guildenstern

...”
“As I was saying… You will not interfere with my plans. Prepare to die!”
“Oh, I am prepared. But are you?”
“I have no need to be prepared.”
“That's where you're wrong.”
“How am I wrong?”
“You shall see.”
“Well if I am wrong then I am dead and if I’m dead how can I see?”
“Simple, you shall see and then you shall die.”
“Enough. Even if I should die,

The Player

will surely see your partner lynched. You are now dead,

William Shakespeare

,

Serial Killer

."
“And... so... are... you...”

(

Jack

,

Mafia

, is struck down from behind and slain.)

It is Day 3. 3 alive, 2 to lynch.

[Jack]

Good game. I greatly enjoyed the day period with the lynching of Bogre and the nightkill of Jules...although they never showed up to defend themselves.

I do think it's unlucky that with all the townies that were killed the vigilante survived to the end. Oh well.

[Jack]

Actually- if ThAdmiral played an thematic role in the end. Consider what happens if he’s lynched D2. He doesn’t kill an innocent, Jules is left alive in a 4-person endgame, and mikeburnfire’s lynch is not automatic. So there is an absurdly counterintuitive situation of a protown being lynched D2 so that an antitown could survive to kill a second protown N3- which as a result gave the town an almost certain win!

I was initially going to go for a ThAdmiral lynch, until TCS expressed his suspicion of MikeBurn. I thought that the doctor was still alive and TCS unreachable, so the only way we could have won was by killing the doc that night and end up with me, bogre, and HH in the endgame.

I much preferred the odds of getting the town to lynch bogre (easy) and kill one of the other townies. Unfortunatly TCS decided Jules was more suspicious than HackerHuck. I still think this was the best plan based on what we knew.