Mini 1336 - Revolution Mafia Game Over!

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Yarr.

Llamarble, why aren't we lynching Fate?

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I might change my mind on you while reading the thread though, Llamarble.

(Spoiler: I won't.)

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TML/voided

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This. Actually, mathematically speaking, you can

never

identify two people as being different alignments more strongly than you can identify one of their alignments on its own. For instance, say that you're 70% sure that X is town and 60% sure that Y is scum. Then the probability that they have differing alignments is (.7*.6)+(.4*.3) = 54%. More than that, it's logically provable that there are no "they have different alignments" tells (that is, there's no reliable way to say 'i'm X% sure that these two players have different alignments' without saying how likely you think each of them are to be each alignment. Basically, scumhunting ought to start on the individual scale.

I can't ignore this.

You're wrong and your reasoning is circular. The joint distribution of alignments is not fully determined by the distribution of individual alignments and there's no reason why the odds of X being town and Y being scum would be .7*.6 (and the only way to justify it would be to suppose that scumhunting is based on the individual level and "thus" conclude that those events are independent). Think e.g. of a counterclaim in an open - in that case you know there's exactly one scum among the two claimants but you may well only be around 50% sure either is scum.

(I put "thus" in quotes because although it's a decent approximation, it's not actually true that those events will be independent in any reasonable situation because there's a fixed amount of scum and that means X being scum is generally negatively correlated with Y being scum. I'm fairly sure the actual calculation is somewhat tricksy.)

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What do you think of Kanye though?

So far, my impression of kanye has mostly been that he's somewhat under the radar but that's sort of hard to tell when you're specifically paying attention to him.

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Spyrex is kind of giving me some of the same disgustinggutscumvibes that he gave me in the only other game i've played with him (in which he was scum). Can't pinpoint it. Other game, I could. He might have just been readable as a fluke in that game. Looked at random towngame (league mafia) of his, don't get the same gut ping, but that might be bias. Shmr. Dunno.

^townie (especially with the "shmr")

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Fate is probably town. Opinion.

No role information there.

Vote: Fate

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I'm still pretty happy lynching Kanye though, since neither Fate nor CES seem to want that lynch and there's probably a scum in that pair.

Kanyelynch isn't bad actually. There are some valid points against him.

I just think it's silly Fate hasn't been lynched yet. The whole "CES can read me" is lazy too (hint: not actually a thing).

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Totally hadn't noticed kanye had already been lynched.

>_>
<_<

P.S. I'm caught up now.

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You should up your game a bit qualitywise, 'marble, by the bye. Letting Fate just skip on by and going after my slot for having a pro-town power is subpar.

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More votes for Fate.

Either I have magical Fate-reading powers, in which case you should sheep me, or I don't, in which case Fate is lying (well, pseudo-lying) and you should vote him.

P.S. read that "well" a la Tennant.

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CES is fucking town, it pains me to admit it, but he would try to use me as scum. He just has forgotten how I Work

This flip I don't really see from Fatescum.

Why? Seems to me to fit right in with the rest of the meaningless raging.

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Vijay, you should vote for Fate. Voidedmafia is Tomorrow's lynch.

I think townies are more likely to decide they were wrong about something while thinking about the game later.
It's also just hard to abandon a good possible mislynch as scum.
Fate can still be scum, but this is definitely an 'eh yuck maybe he will flip town' for me.

And competent scum know that well-executed 180s look townish. The way to tell the two apart is quality of reasoning and his is trash. And I'm pretty unmislynchable.

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You're boring, Fate; 'marble is town.

On an unrelated note, I did some calculations and based on my reads, my a priori estimate (i.e. not taking into account the no-sabotage result) for the odds of an all-town mission are around 19%; odds of a 1-scum mission 53%; odds of a 2-scum mission 26%; and odds of a 3-scum mission 2%. Conditioning on the no-sabotage result should lower the second significantly and up the other 3 accordingly but I certainly think 1-scum is still a reasonable option and we probably shouldn't be too optimistic regarding the no-sabotage result in general.

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The people who :do: think we can read Fate / have had success reading him in the past are all voting Fate.
What do you think that means?

That you should make an easy to read case on why Fate is scum here and why lynching easier scum is not a better alternative.

Fatetown would recognize 'marbletown. There, simple as pie.

I really don't get why getting Fate lynched is so hard here. He's playing a very lazy transparent game.

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am town because there was no sabotage

This isn't a town tell by the bye, unless you assume scum would sabotage if they had 2+ on the mission with decent probability.

(Easy to see why it's not: a priori expected amount of scum on the mission will surely be at least 1 or thereabout given reasonable reads; lack of sabotaging basically just decreases the chance that the amount of scum will be exactly 1 and reducing the probability that the average will be obtained doesn't affect the average.)

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Plurality lynching, implosion.

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Spyre, vote for Fate. It's the only way.

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Hint: Fate is playing you. Don't let out of game considerations prevent you from doing the right thing.

Molla, you ginger, I'm calling in that favour. Vote for Fate.

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Same six.

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Vote: Fate

Trust: vijay

Trust: BBmolla

Do we give SpyreX or Darox the last slot?

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Trust: Darox

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Although.

Llamarble, are you at all partial to the argument that I'm town due to me starting the game with a power that is unambiguously pro-town?

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It is basically a rolecop power though.
I guess without a nightkill that becomes less useful to scum, but you'll have to explain to me what is unambiguously pro town about it.

What's the point of knowledge without the means to act on it? Seems to me that the only function of the role is to be able to see if people's claim check out.

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Also:

HAPPY BIRTHDAY FATE

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CES, answer me this, why are there no NKs?

Because the scum don't have a nightkill.

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CES a role identifier is useful for directing anything that messes with town roles, and if scum don't have an NK it's likely they have something that does that.

I see no particular reason why scum would have such an ability. There certainly hasn't been any sign of it. Furthermore, if my understanding of the set-up is correct, then my ability has zero predictive value.

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You do acknowledge that the ability itself is unambiguously pro-town then?

I don't see the point in mass claiming although it's probably worth explicitly pointing out that people really should feel free to claim relevant info.

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Just sheep me. I'm bussing.

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-CES needs to stop being a dumbass one trick pony that does nothing, gives no reads, or anything productive outside pushing a wagon on who he thinks is scum, and realize he might be WRONG ABOUT ME and stop being a puppet for scum. Especially when he's smart enough to realize scum are on the mission.

It's hard to take you seriously when you're still pretending 'marble could be scum.

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This Day seems to be coming down to 'marble vs. Fate, however silly that is, so just vote for Fatescum, vijay.

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Trust: Darox

again since GI missed it.

Untrust: BBmolla, Trust: Llamarble

Fatescum should be hammered and we should make sure we get the 5 people on the mission that we want.

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Anyway, let's get the mission in order. We still need some extra trust tokens on Darox and vijay.

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Doesn't really matter when we lynch him, right? We'll lynch kanye overmorrow.

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Fate
SpyreX
Kanye
Darox

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Fairly sure that recognizing you are incapable of faking a certain part of your town meta as scum is not arrogance.

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GI

, I switched a trust token from BBm to 'marble. Also, I believe that timer is off by 12 hours.

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We need some trust tokens to go vijay's way.

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Vote: Kanye

Trust: Llamarble, MattP, BBmolla

I'll talk White Flag stuff in the morning. Spoiler: Llamarble is town and no one should consider voting him.

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Okay, White Flag. (For those not in the know, White Flag was one of the Team Mafia games; Llamarble was scum and I got him lynched.)

So when 'marble came back from being V/LA he encountered pressure in both of his ongoing games. There's a world of difference between his reactions here and there; despite having plenty of motivation Llamarble didn't come particularly close to mass posting in White Flag like he did here. It really is a pretty unambiguous town tell; he might eventually learn to fake it but we know he hasn't yet.

Note also this comment: "I think I actually delivered on my claim that I would read everything in the thread 5-6 times. GOD I LOVE BEING TOWN." (356) which 'marble made on the same day he got lynched in WF.

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The 'my role only helps town thing' I still don't buy because we just don't have enough information about scums' capabilities.

Absence of evidence is evidence of absence here, surely?

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People should place their trust tokens.

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That's what 'marble meant? Scum have an incentive to sabotage since it prevents the mission size from decreasing.

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Also: I've been assuming that the prizes were related to the missions succeeding.

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It's cool. Kanye is a good lynch.

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I don't get how kuribo made that list.

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anyway, who are we lynching?

Kanye.

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Me.

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Yeah, Molla looks better in ISO than he did in context. He gets to live today.

Looking better in ISO than in context is not actually a good thing, 'marble.

If CES is wrong about Kanye he's scum.

Are you burdening of proficiency me? That'd be new. And vaguely cool.

I don't even care anymore really. Nobody gives a shit about me. ;-;

It's okay. Your vote still counts! (Also, I'm sure you'll be scrutinized if the mission gets sabotaged.)

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Unvote, vote: SpyreX

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MattP, did your analysis of Darox take into account that Darox has no idea what he's doing?

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Ohh Kuribo

Much like Fate asked and it didn't happen, when I'm not scum will you go ahead and make mr marble be dead?

This sounds like it's intended to sound like bussing after Spyrex goes down to help scum mislynch me tomorrow, haha.
Who'd be my scumbuddy if not you Spyrex?
CES: Impossible
Kuribo: lol
Darox: lol, though possible if you're crazy I guess
Kanye: lol
MattP: Town
Vijay: Town
Implosion: Meh conceivable
Molla: Meh conceivable
I'm sure there are good reasons for me/Implosion/Molla to be not a viable team, such as this post.

Try giving a coherent perspective on the game please. X and some combination of Y and Z are scum.
Not 'well my reads are this this and this I'm going to make the one lynchvote contradictory to every single one of them.'
Or "let's lynch whoever is easiest and stay as aloof as humanly possible even though this town is in trouble and needs us to work hard to pull out a win"

This is a silly post, 'marble. The kind of player that can't see you're town here is not going to be convinced by that post.

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Kanyescum doesn't have a clear reason to fight off a wagon on Spyrextown though, and both of them being town would make the scumteam some kind of hiding-in-the-shadows CES Implosion Molla combo.

"Hiding in the shadows" only applies to Implosion and molla, right? I'm right there on the frontlines helping the town mislynch kanye and spyspy.

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Llamarble, you suck.

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Well, that too, 'marble, but I was referring to the unvoting spyspy and pushing for a mass claim without any notion as to why taking that decision out of people's hands is worthwhile.

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The notion is that I am having trouble figuring out who scum are, and so (supposedly) are implosion and Spyrex, and nobody seems to really be confident except people who are blatantly wrong (Darox, Kanye). I just didn't like that gamestate.

The notion is that mass claim is magic and will make your problems go away.

My unvote of Spyrex wasn't necessarily permanent. I just am too uncertain to let day end right now.

I got that. But if you're unsure as to whether spyspy or kanye is a better lynch (and expect to be unsure in the future) then you should also be fairly ambivalent as to which of the two gets lynched (also: decent odds we're lynching the other one after).

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I like to bus though.

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I haven't gotten anything beyond the software thingamajig I got N1.

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This claiming has been helpful to me.

That probably just means you're bad at set-up speculation.

Can we lynch the urquan now?

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Vote: Accelerate

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We're just lynching all of Llamarble's detractors so that everyone left will agree 'marble is obvtown and we can keep sending him on missions forever and win easy-peasy.

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Somebody wake me up Tomorrow after Spy has been deadline lynched.

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Quaking in my boots here; 7.0 on the Richter scale; enough to level a small third-world country's capital; an instrument of God's wrath on the gays.

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That was just the first bit; rest is just me being colourful.

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Obviously the explanation is that your action was real, Llamarble, and that while I did use a Software wossname, I didn't use it on you and then lied about it because I couldn't justify targetting my actual target and then I said I targetted you assuming you wouldn't contradict me. That doesn't seem that implausible and the only risk we'd've been taking is that there could be another software thingamawhat (on top of our 2) and they happened to have targetted me.

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You :got: it N1 or used it N1? That's an inconsistency.

I used it N1. The PM is ambiguous as to when I received it and I don't really care.

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That's more of a mediocre scum game.

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SpyreX, Kanye
You, 'marble

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P.S. I think the lesson here is if you put in a mechanic that lets town stall itself to death, the town will probably do so. This game needs some dead bodies.

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You don't change winning missionauts midwormhole.

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I'm not sure how it could be ambiguous if you're actually around when you receive the prize?

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Unvote, Vote: CES

There was no ambiguity in when I got it although there could be said to be some with when I used it.

AND, considering I specifically asked and was told no about that exact scenario well.

This should really tell all you need to know about whom to vote for here.

Supposedly apathetic SpyreX coming up with some bullshit reasoning of that type for what is obviously just a survivalistic vote.

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Going after MattP is a tad silly if you're going to talk about LyLo when there's 10 alive in the same post.

Also, we're lynching Kanye tomorrow.

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What does that even mean?

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Molla, you ginger, I'm calling in that favour. Vote for Fate.

If CES is wrong about Kanye he's scum.

Are you burdening of proficiency me? That'd be new. And vaguely cool.

I don't even care anymore really. Nobody gives a shit about me. ;-;

It's okay. Your vote still counts! (Also, I'm sure you'll be scrutinized if the mission gets sabotaged.)

That is the extent of my interactions with you. There's literally only one thing that could be described as me trying to use you and I happen to remember that you completely ignored it.

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The worst part is that that's probably still better reasoning than anyone else put forth. That's vaguely disgusting.

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Check the VC just before that second post - you had 4 trust tokens and Llamarble had 1. That's the only reason I changed my trust token.

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that vote on CES was *so* bad for its non-reasoning

As opposed to all the reasoning any other vote had?

God, I don't have time to deal with this nonsense right now.

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MattP, talk to me. Why do you think I'm scum?

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By the bye, no. Makes zero balance sense.

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Yea, I'm demoralized as fuck and feel like I have no leads sooooo?

We need some dead bodies hitting the floor.

BBmolla, town win condition makes it balanced, yes.

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CES, it's your tone, you are playing detached and apathetic, it's an advanced form of scumplay, but I expect that from you

An advanced form of scumplay I've never engaged in?

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that's just it, he HASN'T been detatched and apathetic, he only became that way once the wagon turned its attention from SpyreX to him

I think I've been detached and apathetic since 'marble unvoted Spy, pretty sure.

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CES, it's your tone, you are playing detached and apathetic, it's an advanced form of scumplay, but I expect that from you

An advanced form of scumplay I've never engaged in?

Actually, yes, this is something that should definitely show up in your meta.

Let me go through it.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=19273 is my most recent scum game on mafiascum that hasn't been destroyed, just to help

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that's just it, he HASN'T been detatched and apathetic, he only became that way once the wagon turned its attention from SpyreX to him

Didn't that only happen like a day ago? What are you talking about?

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Kanye seriously seriously needs death BTW.

Kanye is Tomorrow's lynch yes.

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Unvote, vote: SpyreX

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Exactly on time?

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Vote: Kanye

So scum finally got round to sabotaging. New mission: Llamarble, MattP, kuribo, Darox, me?

Trust: Llamarble, MattP, kuribo

Feel free to actually explain your read this time, kuribo.

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I actually got a thing last night, which makes me even more confused as to what sabotage does.

Quantity of prizes and the mission size reduction thingamawog probably.

At this point scum have enough influence over the lynch that I'm going to refuse to vote anybody Kuribo isn't voting seeing as he's the only player I 100% trust. I am strongly of the opinion that in high scum : town ratio situations town should agree to vote along with somebody who's widely agreed to be town and then talk things over with that player. I would sure like to get rid of Kanye though.

Don't be bad, 'marble. Today is the day we lynch Kanye.

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Yes.

(The reason is that we don't know who it is.)

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The fact that you and SpyreX were counter-wagons, and SpyreX's picked up that last little bit of steam at the end to save you? Makes you HUGE fucking scum.

What are you on about? There was a last minute push on me, not on SpyreX. The only things even remotely close to what you're describing are: BBmolla's switch back to SpyreX after I dismantled his reasoning, which makes oodles more sense as a scum caught with his hand in the cookie jar than as a weird quickly withdrawn bus attempt; MattP's unvote, but MattP's town; and my literally last minute vote switcharoo.

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If you're town, then you've been just as bad this game as I have.
If not worse, since I at least have acknowledged that the mislynches I've been part of were not :confidentreads:

Yeah but I'm voting Kanye right now and you're voting the guy Kanye tried to get mislynched Yesterday. And I certainly haven't been worse than you simply just because you've posted more "woe is me" stuff (also: pretty sure I wasn't here for the Elmo mislynch).

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I'd be glad to lynch Kanye if Kuribo is interested, but I do have trouble believing a game containing you me Fate and Spyrex could go this badly for town with none of us scum.

I have a much harder time believing the push on you was all town if you want to talk abstract group-based arguments (bonus: the dependence actually goes the right way in my argument).

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Also, Fate.

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The grouping fallacy is what we decided on as the name for this particular mistake of reasoning, yeah, 'marble? Well, you're committing it.

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Town is doing badly -> it is fairly likely one of the strong players is scum.

I find that if you're moving from specifics to generalities, it's a good sign your argument might not be all that good in the specific case you're dealing with. All you've got is a burden of proficiency argument and there's ample evidence to suggest that townies tend to underperform in this specific environment.

Give me 3 good reasons that you are town.
Not including the 'my initial role wasn't helpful to scum' thing which I still don't really agree with or see as something that makes you town.

You're alive.
Scum tried to get me mislynched Yesterday.
(Fate called me town?)
Lack of zest.
I wasn't going to include the "my initial role wasn't helpful to scum" thing anyway since it was based on the mistaken impression that I started out with that ability and I assume the ability handing out mechanic is random.

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Not totally worthless, no, but not the kind of thing you should be basing lynches on at this point, especially with Kanyescum around.

Yes, fairly sure my slot did not start with that ability.

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I assume N1 although D1 works too, I suppose. Does it matter?

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I think I really was obvtown though. Ah well.

You were, especially with White Flag as a direct reference.

-I definitely liked the underlying idea for the set-up.
-Darox and Kanye obviously played well. Good stuff.
-Someone really should've called out Regfan for basically disappearing by the end.

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(I personally don't see any sign that he was playing the game to the extent that that could be anything but a lucky guess.)

@kuribo, yeah, I probably did. I may have been too committed to bussing Kanye that I was somewhat careless as to how I'd look (especially w.r.t the Spyrelynch) if it didn't go through. I blame 'marble.