Mini 291: Clue Mafia.....Game Over!

[EmpTyger]

Have read the thread, though I wouldn’t consider myself “caught up” just yet. I’ll try to post more tonight, but a word of warning- my dorm closes tomorrow so I’m likely going to have a quite a few last minute RL tasks for the next 24 hours or so. In any case, I’m on a work computer right now, and don’t have my notes in front of me and I’m not going to begin to try to recreate them. Will post thoughts when I get the chance.

[EmpTyger]

ugh My home computer is unavailable for the next couple of days- I still have regular access to the site, but I don't have access to the notes I took. Need to reread, because I have no idea what's going on.

[EmpTyger]

My normal computer is still unavailable for at least 1 and possibly a couple more days. I have gone through and reread the thread (which I needed to do anyway) and reconstructed my notes, but they're not yet in a postable form, and I don't have time to do that just now. But I think I will take advantage of how bigAl's random assignments turned out to wait until it is my turn before giving my comments.

You're up, Flay.

[EmpTyger]

Billiards as I've already stated in D1
and Conservatory last night

Vote: Tamuz

[EmpTyger]

Actually-

Unvote: Tamuz

. I need to think about what still ought be said today. There may be some value in my claiming. Do not end the day prematurely.

[EmpTyger]

kops:

Emp.... I'm really not sure at all what youre getting at... can you please explain??
Do you have some kind of information that implies Tamuz is scum.. if so, then why are you beating around the bush? That seems a really odd thing to do on day 3, especially in conjunction w/ a vote (even if there is an unvote right after) while we're in a possible speed lynch and/or lylo situation...<snip>

Tamuz could not have chosen the Conservatory- because the Conservatory was not a choice last night!

Also, for your night-moving pleasure, the following rooms are available:
The Library
The Study
The Hall
The Kitchen
The Billiard Room
The Dining Room
The Lounge

Happy Hiding!

I unvoted because I realized that before day ended, there was value in planning what would happen tonight. For which I propose the following:


All:
Today we lynch Tamuz.

Tonight
{Bamboo, Flay, kops, Tyger} stay in one room. (I’m arbitrarily picking the Library)
{bigAl, elvis} stay in a second room. (I’m arbitrarily picking the Hall)
I am thinking secret passages are immaterial, but we may as well play this safe and choose rooms from among {Library, Hall, Dining Room}. Nightabilities should be used prudently. However, vigilantes should not act, as entering night with 4 innocents:2 mafia, a misfire most likely loses the game. Also, I recommend that roleblockers not act either (to prevent confusion if we have a mafia roleblocker, in the case explained below), but given the events of Night 1 it may be okay; use your discretion.

Tomorrow either the correct course of action will be deducibly obvious, or I will claim first. At this point we can do things like have elvis clear up [468], and I will get around to posting my observations. Assuming that we don’t have another obvious lynch to handle, in which case we can reevaluate what the proper course of action is.

Does anyone have any objections to this? I will admit I am not completely sure how it will play out in every case, but I am fairly certain it will work out beneficially. The biggest potential confusion I can see involved a mafia roleblocker, in which case I don’t see how balancewise there could be more than a 2 person mafia, so the town will have enough time to act, provided this fact is recognized, which is why I am recommending protown roleblockers not act.

[EmpTyger]

So we all are in agreement, except for Bamboo, who still has to check in.

Vote: Tamuz

. *1* other person should vote Tamuz. Then Bamboo will cast the lynching vote, assuming he has nothing else to add.

[EmpTyger]

It seems now that all but elvis are agreed; please allow elvis to be one of the ones casting one of the remaining votes on Tamuz to ensure that we do not go to night before we have consensus.


elvis:
The primary rationale behind my assigning rooms as I did was to maximize the amount of information available tomorrow. Even if protection was able to be granted to an entire room- an assumption I do not feel can be confidentally made- we would not necessarily be in an optimal position for tomorrow. The assignments have nothing to do with my considering you and bigAl more or less suspicious than Bamboo, Flay, and kops.

[EmpTyger]

Unvote: Tamuz

to ensure that he is not prematurely lynched.


elvis:

<snip>I'm not sure I want to just lay my ass out there for the mafia to pick me off.

I don't have time right this moment to post an alternate suggestion or really get into Emp's plan. I'm just asking for some more time to think about it.<snip>

Let me know when you have considered it further. Hopefully my response to bigAl below will ease the concern you’ve already stated.


bigAl:

Would there be any advantage of having a couple people (Elvis and I?) not say where we are going? Propably wouldn't make much of a difference, unless scum have to pick which room that want to attack instead of the person (which is still a possibility). <snip>

What you are proposing would be disadvantageous because it will make it harder to figure things out tomorrow. I deliberately chose each of the assignments as I did. I am trying to avoid saying the logic behind my reasons explicitly lest I spell out how the mafia might be able to circumvent what I am trying to do. Tomorrow I promise that everything will be explained in full.

[EmpTyger]

elvis:
Now you’re just fishing. As I *just* said:

<snip>I am trying to avoid saying the logic behind my reasons explicitly lest I spell out how the mafia might be able to circumvent what I am trying to do. Tomorrow I promise that everything will be explained in full.

At this point I think I have to explain myself today, which might give mafia a chance to find a way around things tonight. But I since I think you just gave yourself away, fair trade.

argh I Need to run out right now and want to type my next up carefully, so please be patient. Will post tomorrow.

[EmpTyger]

Reread and reevaluated, and I’m not going to fully claim today. I believe that elvis is a second mafia, and by her reaction she is dissatisfied with what my plan will do, and that’s good enough for me for today. As everyone else is in consensus:

Vote: Tamuz

.

[EmpTyger]

elvis:
You want discussion?

Unvote: Tamuz

. I’ll give you discussion. You keep insisting there we should, but the only thing you seem to want are details from and about me. And I’m not going to claim or elaborate when the only person who wants me to is by far the most suspicious. So, since you’re so desperate to talk, let’s talk about a topic of *my* choosing: how suspiciously you’ve acted today.

<discussion>
The town is in lynch-or-lose. elvis posts a gratuitously overdefensive denial of being in the Billiard Room in her first post, [434].

kops suspects elvis and Tamuz in [437] and brings up the possibility of lynch-or-lose. elvis responds to this in [438] with an “I feel like voting.” I don’t know what this means. Perhaps she misposted, and thus needed to cover with a jk in [439]. But it feels like she’s trying to get a vote out for a town loss. After Flay denies night results in [440], elvis tries again to toe the line of voting [441]. Perhaps trying to signal her partners for a quicklynch? And her [442] is again defensive.

elvis admits to diverging from her normal practice for claims in [453], wanting a random order instead of players-choose-next, for no actual reason. elvis throws a gratuitous dig at kops before his claim in [459]. And then Tamuz implodes with [467].

And then elvis posts [468], in which she reads something subtle in N225- a game she’s not even in- about Flay. Yet somehow this attention to detail, she utterly misses Tamuz’s glaring mistake in the post above her own.

I make my suggestion in [475]. Flay accuses elvis and bigAl of having planned the N225 thing in [482]. elvis immediately disassociates herself from it in [483], claiming it was just a joke. She does her best to smooth things over in her [483-5], trying to cut her losses. Despite tripleposting, she has nothing to say about my plan.

elvis uses Flay’s question in [487] to try to back out of my nightplan, or at least stall. She also signals a way out: have the lynch occur before consensus is reached. Perhaps she’s hoping Bamboo will object to the town’s consensus, like he did Day 1… but Bamboo goes along with the plan [491]. So it’s up to elvis herself to derail it.

First she fishes for how Bamboo’s role works, in [492]. Meanwhile, Tamuz hints that he might vote himself in [495], providing exactly the escape elvis would need. elvis fishes some more for details in [498], providing the defense of “being really tired”. When I refuse to bite, she attacks me in [503] for not following through on the massclaim- yet she herself had earlier said the exact opposite in [462], after Flay’s and kops’s claims! And she tries yet another attempt at fishing, this time imploring that what I have to say not be lost overnight. She claims to not want to lynch Tamuz because she is not done with discussion, but she is the only one dissatisfied. And once again- with Tamuz now able to suicide- she threatens to break her room assignment.

In [509], she finally decides that Tamuz must indeed be mafia. But evidentially she still wants to discuss something. Which brings us to the present.
</discussion>

For someone who wants discussion so badly, you’ve hardly made a real effort to. What you have done is stalled, used ad hominem, fished for information, and raised unspecified objections to something that *every* other player (except the obviously guilty Tamuz) agreed to. You want to propose an alternative? Go ahead. You feel you have a legitimate objection? Let’s hear it. You want discussion? Give us something to talk about. I’m not going to do something I feel will be suboptimal for the town just because you- and *only* you- want me to. Rather, considering how suspiciously you’ve behaved, the fact that you are against what I say only provides encouragement that I am acting properly.

I have similar observations from the first 2 days, but I don’t feel like reediting them up just now. But if this wasn’t enough discussion for you, I will.


Does anyone have anything else to say?

[EmpTyger]

Flay:
Yes or no only: do you feel you have a reason to want to lynch elvis over Tamuz today? (Don’t spell it out either way.) I suppose a better question would be what Bamboo and kops feel, since one of them will be required for a majority, for one reason…

[EmpTyger]

Sorry, mod. I was under the impression that someone wanted discussion. Clearly this was a mistake.

Vote: Tamuz

[EmpTyger]

Sorry- am running late for work; will post later tonight. For now, I was in the Library.

[EmpTyger]

Flay:
Right now I see 4 possibilities for you:
A) You identified 2 mafia, and are trying to find a way to confirm yourself in the town’s eyes to provide a win.
B) You identified 1 mafia, and in addition to trying to find a way to confirm yourself, you are hoping to catch out the deduced third mafia.
C) You did not get the type of result you are expecting, and are trying to clarify without giving enough away to the mafia that they would be able to escape.
D) You are lying through your teeth.

I’m trying to think up a scheme whereby both of us would be able to test and/or clear the other. If necessary, or if I am unable to, I will make the first move (as promised yesterday, as kops is so quick to remind), but I would like a little more time to try to solve this dilemma, if you are willing to be patient. [Obviously ipso facto my stating this has the potential to give something away, but that seems unavoidable.]

[EmpTyger]

Wait a second. I think this is much easier than I thought. Will post after dinner.

[EmpTyger]

[Argh, it’s not that easy. I briefly thought I had a way to absolutely settle things- and then *Fuldu* of all people stopped me. Weird game.]

I can’t think of a good way of doing this, and at this point I don’t think it is worth fighting over. Sorry, Flay, but I can’t answer your question. Because I myself don’t know whether I did anything observable last night in the Library.

I am a vigilante. <character withheld per request> I am not really sure how my ability works. In fact, MeMe wasn’t sure; she forwarded me nothing about the inthread details, but several correspondences with the mod trying to understand the role.

Night 1 I [MeMe] was in the Study. (In rereading, I was wondering whether MeMe had been trying to discourage protowns from the corner rooms and then go to one herself, with the expectation that anyone there was antitown, but this is just my guess.) Nothing happened.

Night 2 I was in the Dining Room. Which elvis also claimed. Nothing happened…

During Day 3 I realized that bigAl’s convenient assignments, elvis’s claim of the Dining Room, and Tamuz’s implosion together provided me an opportunity. I assigned elvis to a different room than me to see if anything different happened. I put bigAl (the only one besides myself who hadn’t yet claimed vanilla status) with her, to keep both of them honest. I put the claimed doctor with the claimed cop, to test each other. I kept kops and Flay, who had claimed the same room, together. I gave the claimed cop an opportunity which would at the very least very his previous 2 nights. And I put myself in the room with 3 other people, to make sure that I would know what would actually happen when I was in a room with someone else. And I made sure that there wasn’t anything weird with secret passages interfering, because I was wondering whether that might have happened Night 1 with Bamboo in the Kitchen. And… nothing happened…?

Today from Bamboo’s role description the doctor mechanic is explained. First of all, Bamboo obviously didn’t cancel me Night 2. Moreover, I think that if a roleblocker existed, they would behave similarly, meaning that they would have had to be in the same room. elvis claimed vanilla, so clearly couldn’t have innocently blocked me herself. So I know who I’m voting.

But first, as I’m sure elvis would want, let’s have a little discussion. We might as well assume a third mafia member and plan for them.

Tonight: Even assuming the secret passages work, I can’t think of any room assignment which would provide an advantage. If anyone has any suggestions, I’m receptive.


Flay:
Let me be fully honest: I cannot bring myself to fully believe you. On my first readthrough, I was genuinely amazed you hadn’t been lynched. You’ve changed you’re claim between one day and the next. You’ve frequently invoked WIFOM in your logic. You’ve done your best to try to continuously discredit the [now-confirmed] doctor. You were the only one on both innocents’ lynches. You’ve fished the most throughout the game. There’s that “talk” slipup. And you seem overeager to assume that the town thinks you a confirmed innocent. And a lot of little things from the past 3 days, just so much evidence that I cannot bring myself to simply trust you…

…and yet, you *are* an uncounterclaimed cop. And for all the reversing, the confusion over your role rings too true.

Your turn. Let’s hear your story. Convince me.

[EmpTyger]

Flay:
I don’t understand the “obvious reasons” for kops claiming last, and am very leery of your push to have colors claimed out. Your role has changed *again*. This color business comes forward just when it would be most convenient for you if you were mafia. Your scattershot “everyone else is suspicious and potentially mafia” feels like an attempt to score a misvote in a lynch-or-lose scenario. And there is a huge problem with the logic you are using in your (D1) and (D2) cases, which I am not going to point out just yet. But mostly, claiming colors just doesn’t seem to make sense:

For all your bluster about being the most likely to die tonight- I don’t see how on earth you’d *not* live through the night. Temporarily assuming you’re innocent: if you die, then kops’s lynch becomes automatic, and the mafia automatically loses. Rather, I think it is certain that *I* will die overnight: it will be either bigAl or myself, and I have caught out at least as many mafia as you, and there is a chance that my vigilante ability could steal a draw.

But the point is, tomorrow 7 roles will be known from death, and whoever is kingmaking will clearly know the 8th. So, temporarily assuming you are innocent and kops is guilty: I don’t see the potential advantage of your color claiming plan.

I will claim Green/not-Green status, so if that is all you are looking for:

I am not Mr. Green

. But at the moment I am not comfortable saying more than that.

<snip>I'm curious why you couldn't give us your room choices yesterday when everyone else did."<snip>

It wasn’t that I *couldn’t*; it was that I saw no reason to, and had a reason to not. Tamuz was the lynch. Temporally, it didn’t matter whether I claimed first today or last yesterday; the only thing that might happen between them to prevent my claiming would be my death. And at first I didn’t want anything to be assumed about elvis Night 2 if I were to die and be revealed as a vigilante, because I myself couldn’t be sure about what had happened. Later, when I no longer had worry that elvis would be a mislynch, I nearly did claim- but realized that because it seemed so important to elvis that I do, it probably was worth doing the opposite.


bigAl:
Obviously I am biased in disregarding Flay’s 1st possibility, but I also think the 2nd is ridiculous- that requires both you could be guilty *and* elvis to be innocent, and I just don’t see that. So I am confident that regardless of the rest, you are a confirmed innocent. So I really want to make sure that you have my input, should you be kingmaking tomorrow. And just as importantly, vice versa.

[EmpTyger]

Had an idea for tonight. I am suggesting:
{Flay, kops} together in the Hall.
One of {bigAl, Tyger} in either {Kitchen, Study, Hall}, chosen as that player thinks best.
The other of {bigAl, Tyger} in either {Dining Room, Lounge, Hall}, again chosen as that player thinks best.
(I’m not sure what triggered the Day 2 lynch sealing off the Conservatory, and the dawnscene doesn’t really say which room we’re in, so it is theoretically possible that a room could be lost at lynch. So just in case that does happen: if we lose any room other than the Hall, the above doesn’t change. If we lose the Hall, replace “Hall” with “Dining Room”.)

I’ll defer to bigAl in terms of which set of rooms he’d like. (I recommend he not give an explanation either way.) While I have a preference, at the moment he has the most knowledge and I don’t feel that it is worth revealing things unknown to the mafia. If he thinks another plan would be better, say so (and again, he needn’t say why). For that matter, if anyone else wants to suggest room assignments, speak up.


Flay:
The cop claim is a sticking point for me, and that might be what decides it. And correctly calling that neither bigAl nor myself were Mr. Green would require you to either indeed have some investigative ability (albeit independent of your alignment, but I’m skeptical of a powerrole in a 3 person mafia in a 10 player game) or else be lucky (though it was admittedly a coinflip if you were mafia). I’m actually more convinced by Scarlet than by Green; for one thing, since bigAl didn’t counterclaim, it means that you correctly called both of the last 2 colors, which is more significant. And Occam’s Razor: kops and elvis, the ones who didn’t vote Tamuz yesterday, are the mafia.


kops:
Whenever you get back, I’d really love to hear your side of things…


elvis:
And here you are, missing your beloved discussion. Come, wouldn’t you like to provide some insight with your words?

[EmpTyger]

I would like to hear something from kops, who was to be back by now, before I respond to Flay’s most recent posts.

[EmpTyger]

bigAl:
Please let me know how you’re coming along. Just something general like “nearing a decision” or “flipping a coin” or something- I don’t want to rush you.


Flay:
If you’re telling the truth about your ability (heck, even if you’re lying about your ability) you should understand why I don’t want to explain my nightability in detail. Right now the mafia are forced to guess their proper play tonight. When I know an innocent wants an explanation, I’ll give one, but I’m not going to before then.


A couple corrections:

I've got to think about this a bit more; with a Vigilante, No Lynch may become viable here, if you're 100% certain somehow about elvis. It essentially pushes the lynch into the night phase. On the other hand, if we lynch kops, you can either vig me (if he's town, improbably), or elvis, right?<snip>

Does not help. Lynching kops and vigging Flay if he’s innocent (or vice versa) wouldn’t work, because then I get nightkilled and the 1-1 endgame loses. The town has to plan on lynching correctly. No-lynch just pushes the lynch to night and gives me control, which doesn’t give any advantage to the town; if you wanted to do that, you could just as easily lynch who I tell you to. (And if it is a matter of testing my ability, the town has already lost at that point if I am mafia.) Furthermore, it would introduce an extra variable into room determinations, which at the very least doesn’t help.

<snip>With elvis and kops the only two outside of the room with the claimed Doctor according to the plan, and assuming scum believed me when I described my ability (which I did WAY too early in this game, *sigh*), their only option was to kill someone in the same room as me.<snip>

The plan had elvis and *bigAl* outside the room.

But if you're scum, you'd also know the colour of you're partner, which could bring it down to 50%. And if you guessed wrong and kops called you on it, you could just say kops was saying that to make you look guilty. I'm just point this out, NOT saying that I believe it.

Actually, it’s a lot lower than that, because he also was correct about Scarlet. Basically, he would have had to guess that neither of us were Scarlet *and* neither of us were Green; which, besides being unlikely, would be a bad play for mafia in that position.

[EmpTyger]

Thought I knew what I was going to post, but am second-guessing myself, and it's late enough that I'm going to sleep on it rather than try to refigure things tonight.

[EmpTyger]

I was about to post something, but at the last minute, decided to reconsider because it was 5 AM and I was tired and I wasn’t sure I was analyzing correctly. Now I’m sure.

Vote: Masterchief

[EmpTyger]

[am at the RL library right now. Had some accusations saved on my home computer, but feels kind of overkill at this point.]

I was having a such a hard time figuring out which of kops and Flay were guilty, so I planned to test their reactions to my voting their fellowmafia, Masterchief. And... I catch them both trying to speedlynch. Wow. Well, it perfectly explains why I was having such trouble deciding which of them were innocent: Neither were. (I'm still surprised that elvis was innocent, but I didn't seriously consider the possibility that Flay and kops were mafia together. Brilliant gambit, and probably should have worked.)


Flay:
So... that brings your claim total to nighttalker/cop/Lassie/colorinvestigator/oneshotvig. (btw No need to stop there; you still can add something to explain how you stopped last night's nightkill!) I've wanted to lynch you so many times this game, ever since my first readthrough, and was disappointed when stuff kept coming up to keep me from even voting you. Well, looks like it's my lucky day.

Vote: Flay

.

[EmpTyger]

[bah- Been busy, finally get a chance to post, and get beaten into the thread by an hour. Naturally.]

Since we’re in modconfirmed endgame, there’s no reason not to describe my ability; we’re not getting another night, and I suppose it simplifies things. Sgt. Grey, vigilante: the first time someone tries to kill in my room, I kill the murderer first. My ability works entirely passively, like it appears Bamboo’s did: I only choose a room. (N3 appears to be a cornercase involving how Bamboo and my abilities interacted. I’m still not sure what happened N2; the PM I received implied that no one else was with me.) And this should provide a most satisfactory explanation for why I did not want get into explain exactly how my ability worked previously.


Flay:

So are you saying you didn't kill kops? Remember that you just said you couldn't decide which of us was guilty....

I don’t know where you are getting that idea. *Yesterday* I couldn’t decide which of you were guilty. At twilight- when you 2 speedlynched Masterchief and he was revealed as an innocent- I kind of got a slight sneaking suspicion that just maybe you 2 might somehow be mafia together. But, as I said above, kops’s death wasn’t caused by my thinking him guilty.

I think I cover most of [589] in my response to bigAl below, but briefly:

<snip>Nighttalker:

elvis and I can "talk" tonight.

Note the quotes; I didn't mean it literally, I was building on elvis' "It's a date, Flay.", and on my own role as a femme fatale. Strange that the only person who really was suspicious of it was...your predecessor, MeMe.

Blatant lie. You post about “talk”ing in [66]. Tamuz wasn’t suspicious of it in [67]- but he was mafia. MeMe was suspicious in [68]. elvis doubleposted [69-70], and was suspicious [70]. You recant in [71].

Cop:
I never claimed this; in fact I said so back in April. What I *did* say was that I was pretty sure my role could prove MY innocence. At the time I thought I could clear Tamuz, I wasn't sure what my night results would be, so I thought perhaps I'd see someone try to act on him, and have an answer that way.

Lassie: true.

My role clearly states that I am a vigilante, and Bamboo was clearly stated to be a doctor, despite the fact that our roles differ slightly from the norm due to the room mechanic. I cannot believe you expect us to believe that you would have been announced as “Miss Scarlet, Lassie” had you died.

Colorinvestigator: This wasn't described in my role PM, just came up when I finally saw something. Since I was *right* about kops, how does this incriminate me? Please explain what you find suspicious/pro-scum about this ability?

As stated below to bigAl, remember when you tried to accuse me by stating that “there was NO ambiguity about how [your] role works in [your] role PM”?

One-shot vigilante:
Well, as you yourself said yesterday, it wouldn't make much sense to telegraph to the scum that I had a derringer in my garter, would it? Only I think I can prove my claim, unlikely as it is, and you...haven't.

You’re absolutely right. The fact that I claimed vigilante and then had a dead mafia turn up the next morning in no way proves my claim, but completely exonerates the guy who was claiming to be a cop up through dawn. Sure.

Looking back on EmpTyger's room assignments, he put two scum and two town (from my perspective) {Bamboo, Flay, kops, Tyger} in the Library, and two townies {bigAl, elvis} in a second room. Maybe they have to outnumber/equal the townies in a room in order to get their kill through? Would make sense with respect to having three scum in a game of 10, it hampers them somewhat.

Except for the part where you have already stated that you didn’t see me do anything in the Hall N3.

Then last night his proposal (which didn't work, obviously) was to put me in a room with kops (now known scum), and himself and bigAl in separate rooms. He was all-fired up to kill elvis that day despite my claim of evidence, and that would have put me in a room with a single scum by ourselves. That should have ended it with a town loss, if it had worked.

My proposal was assuming that elvis was guilty and exactly 1 of you and kops were mafia. Obviously that assumption was contradicted at nightfall.

That's pretty much what I've got. If ET somehow DOESN'T claim his vigilante action worked last night, then you have to work under the assumption that I took out my partner, at night, in order to get to a three-man endgame where I'm relying on votes going my way. That stretches incredulity just a

bit

, for me anyway...

Except for the part where I killed kops. (And in any case, how is that less incredulous than what you are arguing: that I led the lynch of Tamuz D3 and pushed a cops in front of kops N4? Or, for that matter less incredulous than your claim?)


bigAl:
Er, forgive me, but where’s the confusion? This doesn’t seem that complicated…

Yesterday there were, for me, exactly 2 reasons to believe Flay. First was being an uncounterclaimed cop. Second was correctly identifying Scarlet and Green. Well, now there’s a much simpler explanation for the second than Flay suddenly developed color-detection: he was kops’s fellow mafia, and thusly knew his color! So that leaves the cop claim. A cop claim that kept changing despite Flay’s saying that “there was NO ambiguity about how my role works in my role PM.”

Temporarily assume that Flay has the ability that he described. Why on earth would he play it the way he did? (Interestingly, the plan kops proposed would have indeed been the most effective use of Flay’s alleged ability!) But rather than go with kops’s plan- or go with any alternative to take advantage of his alleged power, Flay weakened his claim and used that as reason to ignore the subject. His main concern is the worry that the doctor might be exposed- but even after Bamboo admits he’s the doctor, Flay still argues for randomized rooms. It is only the next day, when *I* set up the proper assignments that Flay is forced to use his ability in the way he should have from the beginning. (And at that point he has 2 choices: have it revealed that his ability is bogus, or sell out his fellow mafia and try to use that confirm himself. Not much of a choice.)

Moreover, let’s consider the cop ability. Temporarily assume Flay’s telling the truth. As I pointed out, he’s allegedly claimed “there was NO ambiguity about how my role works in my role PM.” (ignore for now the fact that he admits that he was not expecting the color). So he gets no result from vanillas (N1) and also no result from Bamboo’s doctor ability (N3). If he’s telling the truth, I’m guilty and thus don’t have my vigilante ability. So the only results he’d be able to get are mafia nightkills. (And any ability that you might be hinting at in [586], but honestly I’m skeptical.) First of all, this ability seems rather useless, since it seems that most of the time the cop would be able to see anything, it would be his own death! But most importantly, if Flay did have this ability, why would he try to set up a scenario where he’d be with only elvis?

I was suspicious of Flay because I noticed so many invocations of WIFOM logic, often explicitly: [35], [60], [206], [254], [512]. Interestingly, this includes a comment to Tamuz in which Flay describes how “[Flay]'ll sell [his] partner down the river at the slightest provocation”

Flay has lynched 3 protowns. While he did lynch Tamuz, that was only after I presented ironclad evidence against him- and only after he tried to provide a plausible explanation for Tamuz’s misclaim. And only after he kept trying to shift the lynch to elvis, until I pointblank asked him if he had any reason to do so. Which he had to admit that he didn’t.

Flay’s suspicions Day 1 and 2 are usually on people who have been confirmed as protown. The exception is that he does vote for Tamuz; but only after stating that he’s worried about how closely Tamuz has linked himself to him. Which can obviously be taken 2 ways. He soon abandons Tamuz for TSAGod- yet attacks you for doing the exact same thing.

He tried to get me to label the people I assigned to the Hall (which include him and kops) as being cleared, despite trying to cast suspicion on Bamboo.

The first time BabyJ was bandwagoned, Flay put the 4th vote on, and preemptively placed suspicion on a 5th vote [the lynching vote]. This reminded me of the classic newbie game tell: placing the 3rd vote Day 1 (with 4 to lynch).

Day 3 Flay wanted to start with a nameclaim, rather than a roomclaim, despite the fact that there is no evidence for any use for a nameclaim. Except, of course, for his alleged ability- except he didn’t “discover” until the following night.

Day 4 Flay pointed fingers equally at each other player. It didn’t make sense how he could have held the same level of suspicious towards elvis as he did towards me or you after what happened yesterday- unless he was trying to keep suspicion onto everyone, so that whoever he needed good be the target. Even today, he hasn’t yet voted me, I suppose holding out some hope that I might be manipulated otherwise?- despite the fact that you now are a confirmed innocent by virtue of not lynching Flay in endgame.

And what were his alternatives? Yesterday he was careful to keep suspicion on you and I as well as elvis- despite the fact there was little evidence against you and less against me. Today, since I’ve proven my ability, and I voted Flay, so the only way that he can win is by trying to somehow discredit me.

Also, MeMe picked up a tell that never got followed up on: “My instinct says

our

kill was blocked last night.” Also never followed up on what Fuldu pointed out: “Flay seemed awfully convinced that he was going to be able to prove himself, but his role doesn't seem to justify that level of confidence.” Nor the “Vote: The Butler” detail.

<speculation>One thing that struck me on my first readthrough as being rather odd was how Flay mentioned being able to “talk” with others in his room, which he then quickly recanted when the town found this unusual. I was recently in a game where, to balance a larger-than-expected mafia group, there were limits placed on their ability to nighttalk. This game, with the room mechanic and 10 players instead of 12, seemed like it could easily have something like that: the mafia being only allowed to nighttalk if in the same room. Day 1, Flay might not have realized that only mafia got this ability, and slipped up in thread. This might also explain some of the summarizational posts (ie [430]) that he would make when it seemed like the day would be about to end: to get the mafia onto the same page, in case they couldn’t nighttalk.</speculation>

Incidentally, I’m guessing the no-kill N1 was because Bamboo protected Fuldu. Impossible to tell for sure, since Fuldu never claimed his N1 room, and Bamboo would have had to have gotten extremely lucky to have hit him. But he seems the most likely target, both for his playskill and I’d guess because the mafia probably suspected he was the real cop, as he only cast 1 vote all day: for kops. (At first I thought that there was some interplay involving the secret passages, that Bamboo in the Kitchen was able to protect MeMe in the Study; but then I realized that I had forgotten about the players who had died before I joined the game, and realized that the simplest explanation would be that Fuldu was in the Kitchen N1.)

[EmpTyger]

bigAl:

<snip>Why didn't you stop the kill N3, if you were in the Library with Bamboo with your supposed ability?

That’s the corner case I mentioned; I hadn’t anticipated Bamboo’s ability working the way it did. It stopped my killing of kops (or Flay, if he were the killer), because I couldn’t kill someone in front of Peacock. But whoever did the mafia kill was targeting Bamboo, who couldn’t selfprotect. Had Bamboo’s ability worked differently- or had he been lying, even- my plan would have worked much better; as it was we “only” caught 1 mafia (kops if Flay tells the truth; Flay if Flay’s lying).


Flay:
You’re not even trying to defend yourself. You cherrypick my arguments- ignoring nearly the entire first half of [590], which was the part addressed to you, in which I expose a lie, an implausibility, [the lie which you do address briefly with semantics- see below,] illogic, another lie, an explanation for what you later bring up, . In fact, the only part of it you do address is the silly semantic nonsense of “works” vs. “activates”! Instead, you use distortions and flimsy counterattacks regarding things I’ve already given responses to- in some cases in that first half of [590]. I seriously have much better things to do than repeat myself, but I have half a mind to simply repost [590] here.

Thanks, that's all I needed to know that I wasn't getting scammed by bigAl (seemed really unlikely, but...).

Vote: EmpTyger

Nice rhetoric. What praytell was in my post that you “needed to know”, which suddenly opened your eyes?

Now, here's what

actually

happened last night, and why I am guessing that it prevented a nightkill: My one-shot doesn't deal with a room, but with a particular person. Unlike previous nights where I chose a room to observe, last night I sent in a choice to kill kops. Presumably that's why we're in the hallway, and potentially why he never got make his kill. Maybe he was chosen to make the kill because he'd effectively "outed" himself with his last post of the day, and thus was likely to be lynched today anyway if the game continued? I don't know specifics of the scum's kill method, but that's my explanation for why we're in the "hallway" outside of the rooms proper.

Sure, why not. I mean, it’s not like a claim as ridiculous as yours could get less implausible if you also add roleblocker to your resume.

EmpTyger, my tendency to "cut loose" a fellow scum is limited to situations where it's not suicidal; again I ask you, what possible purpose would there be to me killing my own partner last night when we were at 2-2?

Distortion. I wasn’t describing how you allegedly nightkilled kops-

because that’s not what happened

. Rather, I was referring to your gambit of producing a guilty result on kops to effectively confirm a mafia member. (And I suppose your voting for Tamuz might fall under this category also, if you hadn’t tried so hard to subtly get him out of the noose.)

As stated below to bigAl, remember when you tried to accuse me by stating that “there was NO ambiguity about how [your] role works in [your] role PM”?

And there wasn't. I can't quote you what it says directly, of course, but the way in which it's

activated

were totally clear. What it does, took a little longer to decipher...

So you are arguing there is a significant semantic difference between “activated” vs. “works”?

*Yesterday* I couldn’t decide which of you were guilty. At twilight- when you 2 speedlynched Masterchief and he was revealed as an innocent- I kind of got a slight sneaking suspicion that just maybe you 2 might somehow be mafia together. But, as I said above, kops’s death wasn’t caused by my thinking him guilty.

So when, exactly, did you decide it was both me and kops? When I accused you today? This still sounds like hedging your bets, and I still haven't heard a good explanation for why you wanted to lynch elvis over kops yesterday.

Did I lay the sarcasm on too thick there? I realized it at twilight yesterday.

Moreover, let’s consider the cop ability. Temporarily assume Flay’s telling the truth. As I pointed out, he’s allegedly claimed “there was NO ambiguity about how my role works in my role PM.” (ignore for now the fact that he admits that he was not expecting the color). So he gets no result from vanillas (N1) and also no result from Bamboo’s doctor ability (N3). If he’s telling the truth, I’m guilty and thus don’t have my vigilante ability. So the only results he’d be able to get are mafia nightkills. (And any ability that you might be hinting at in [586], but honestly I’m skeptical.) First of all, this ability seems rather useless, since it seems that most of the time the cop would be able to see anything, it would be his own death! But most importantly, if Flay did have this ability, why would he try to set up a scenario where he’d be with only elvis?

Are you claiming to understand how the scum kills work now? Because I don't; my "equal numbers" supposition earlier was merely that; supposition. I did, indeed, initially expect many more power roles that I'd be able to confirm. That's the ONLY reason I came out on D1 with what my role did, and invited as many of my accusers as wanted to join me (not just elvis, as you continue to assert falsely) in the same room.

Distortion. I have may have my guesses about how mafia nightkills, but none are required here. The way you’ve described your alleged ability, the *only* action it could possibly get a result on is the mafia nightkill! (The only guess is regarding bigAl’s lack of ability. The rest is pure fact.) And even accepting your explanation for what you were trying D1 and N1 (not that I do), you still have no explanation for your behavior D2 and N2?

Your "Day 4" scenario above is false on the face of it, because you're presuming that I had "equal suspicions" on everyone left alive (besides kops). I clearly said what my full suspicions were, and have at every point of the game, I believe. You, on the other hand, have failed to answer numerous questions at the ideal times, with your constant "well I'll have to rethink this", "well I changed my mind", "well maybe I shouldn't reveal that today" the last few days.<snip>

Are you referring to D3, when in response to elvis-who-was-acting-supersuspicious, I should have spelled out what I was trying to do with room assignments? The course of action which allegedly allowed you to actually get a result out of this alleged cop ability of yours? In any case, Mr. “I’ve clearly said what my full suspicions were at every point of the game”, when did you object to this? Speaking of which, when BabyJ thought the same about Bamboo, didn’t you lynch him for it? And then still voiced your own suspicious of Bamboo?

Or are you referring to D4, when *you* were pressing me for details of how my vig ability worked, which became so evident the following dawn that you had to make your ridiculous vig counterclaim lest I be confirmed? Details which would have provided the mafia with the *exact* course of action they would have needed to take to secure the win? Had I described the ability, mafia would have known they needed to kill bigAl to win immediately. As it was, they were forced to guess who they needed to kill. They chose the traditional solution for a 2 mafia-1 vig-1 townie endgame: kill the vig. (Probably not even a choice with much thought behind it, given how excitedly confident kops’s speedlynch vote sounded.)

No, I’m *quite* happy with how I played. I found and lynched mafia D3, exposed a fielder’s choiced mafia N3, exposed the rest of the mafia D4, got a second mafia vigged N4, and, provided bigAl is satisfied, will be lynching the last mafia D5.

So one final time: D4 I had been suspicious of both you and kops, separately. I *did* voice my suspicions that day, but realized that by focusing on you, kops was dipping under the radar. So I held back to hear from him, lest I taint his reaction. And found that he was also making me suspicious. So I did my votetest, to compare how you and kops reacted to my voting the other mafia member. And before I could post any result, Masterchief was speedlynched. Because I had not anticipated that you and kops might be mafia together. I’m not going to explain this to you again.

[EmpTyger]

bigAl:
The way my role works, I *only* choose a room, and the result is passively resolved by mod, who PMs me the result at the end of the night. I *can’t* choose to kill a specific player.

The thing with elvis:
At the end of N2, I received a PM (the same as one MeMe forwarded me, which she had received after N1) stating that my vig ability had not been used; it implied that I had been alone. Yet D3 elvis claimed my room. This made me suspect that she was lying (especially with her outrageously suspicious behavior regarding Tamuz). I received a different PM N3, which informed me that I had tried to use my ability but couldn’t, and told me that my oneshot had not been used up. (This was why D3 I couldn’t be sure whether I would have been visible to Flay’s alleged ability: I had no idea how the blocked action would have shown up.) This PM implied that I had not been alone. At the end of last night I received a PM informing me that I had used my ability to kill kops.


Flay:
Just found another contradiction:

And this I know is nitpicky, but once suspicions are raised, I look closely...

My instinct says our kill was blocked last night.

Our

kill?

Am I missing something obvious?

I don't think so, my plan definitely didn't work out as well as I thought it would. I would ask you, however, what sort of bizarre scum scheme this would seem to have been. I'm not saying I haven't played

poorly

, I just don't think I've been playing

scummy

.

The "

our

kill" thing is simply referring to the fact that we have one scum group (attested by the mod), and therefore one obligatory kill at night (excluding any vigilantes, etc). Thus "our" one kill per night for the game.

Your explanation makes no sense if *you* are a vigilante! Because you wouldn’t be thinking of the game as being a fixed 1 kill/night, since *you* know that there’s a possibility for more than 1!

[EmpTyger]

You’re welcome, Flay.

I feel this really wasn’t a game we should have won; yet I think this wasn’t a game we should have lost, either.

[EmpTyger]

bigAl:
Sorry, I’m biting my tongue out of final deference to the mod. Because I’d *really* like to hear what she has to say next. I just couldn’t resist paralleling kops’s death post.

Also, since it’s moot now, and I’m egotistically curious: would you mind letting me know how on earth you decided to vote me over Flay?

[EmpTyger]

bigAl:

I actually kept expecting EMpTyger to use kops' D4 closing speech against me; another way it could have been interpreted that I didn't mention for OBVIOUS reasons was "Thanks Flay for being such a competent and helpful scum partner!" I'm not sure how I could have responded to that WIFOM logic.

I had thought of that too...but decided not to mention it to see if EmpTyger would bring it up...

1 step ahead of you. I figured that if you didn’t realize that interpretation on your own, my bringing it up wouldn’t have helped; and if you weren’t able to deduce it. And conversely, if I did bring it up, it would seem like I was trying to distort incriminating words. Flay seemed rattled by his “lots of ghosts” comment, so I didn’t feel I needed to add anything. From [585] I knew you were examining it closely yourself; I figured the best thing I could do was let you draw your own conclusions from it. It’s not like there wasn’t more than enough evidence in Flay’s own words that I could find to use against him.


Flay:
The silly thing is that most one of my accusations *were* genuine. In fact, when I first replaced in and was reading through the game, I hadn’t yet learned who my partners were, but I genuinely guessed you were one. I really wanted to counterclaim cop on arrival, but was dissuaded. (And in fairness, I wasn’t sure I could explain well enough why MeMe wouldn’t have counterclaimed earlier.) Maybe in hindsight…?

I figured there was no chance of you buying my role- in fact, I was slightly worried that your cop ability was purevig, and I had just managed to guess your full role! But there seemed no way I’d be able to persuade you that bigAl was suspicious without persuading bigAl that you were suspicious, so I decided to just go fully with that. Maybe if I claim vanilla instead of vig, and but then kops is definitely lynched D4, and you get confirmed, and I still have to avoid either of your abilities while getting another 2 kills somehow. Seemed ridiculous not to just try for the single mislynch.

And you thought it was hard to use your role…


Tamuz:
Caught that the Conservatory wasn’t an available room just after dawn hit, and prayed in vain that you’d figure it out in time. When you didn’t, I figured you were going down anyhow, and could take the credibility boost to help the endgame and guarantee Bamboo’s death. [Incidentally, town: this was definitely not planned beforehand.]

This is still wonderful, btw: “I still think BJ is scummy because, of course he acts scummy, but he is acting scummy in a scummier way than he usually acts scummy.”


kops:
[579] was careless, to be certain, but at that point the damage was probably already done. Orbiting was correct not to delete it, though, because then it looks more incriminating. And I mean, I myself did start nighttalking with you at that point myself, since I myself thought the game over at that point. At that point, though, you probably should not have referenced it in your bah post. But I do not think it had any real effect on the game, so don’t worry.


Masterchief:
I feel like I owe you an apology. You had no business being in this game, and I genuinely feel bad that you had to replace, get caught up, and then get summarily lynched. I was planning on voting elvis, and could have acted quicker, especially after the mod announced the replacement warning and notice, but I’d had an unexpectedly busy week, wanted to be extracautious because this was a delicate situation, and I’d been lulled by the game’s slow pace into thinking replacement wouldn’t happen for awhile. You did nothing wrong; you just replaced into a most unfortunate position left by elvis. I replaced in myself, so I sincerely do hate to do that to a replacement on arrival, but in that game position, I didn’t think I had the option of indulging suboptimal play out of metagame sensibilities. I started an ethics thread in the MD forum about this.


MeMe:
Not that I feel you’d hold us responsible, but sorry anyway. We didn’t play this as well as we could, in that we made a few obvious slips {Tamuz’s implosive roomclaim, kops’s overexcitedly thinking it endgame}. Yet I’m really not sure what we could have done differently to get a different outcome.


[Mod comments to be added later; want to check something first]

[EmpTyger]

Mod:
I hate to be a sore loser, but I really feel that, given the setup, the mafia had no way of winning. Unlike the town, the mafia had no control over whether they could win or not. And forget about being fair- that’s not fun. I do grant bigAl great credit for making an incredibly excellent decision, and Flay, for enabling that decision to be made by playing his role well in the end. But this was a town’s game, designed to be played by the town, and I feel I wasted a lot of time trying to win it when that wasn’t possible. So please accept in advance my apology for the harshness of my criticism; keep in mind it is significantly toned down from what I originally was going to write.

1) The mafia had no control over the nightkill. Let me repeat that. We had no control over whether there would be a nightkill! The *one* power that sets the mafia apart was taken from us! Moreover, we had no control over whether there *wouldn’t* be a nightkill. We had no control over who would be killed. We had no control over who would do the killing. If anything happened advantageously, it would be because (a) we got lucky, or (b) we exposed ourselves with disprovable claims to the town. I firmly believe that we were more likely to win if we were told we were protown masons, or and probably more as likely to win if we had been given a protown role PM and not been told that we were mafia! In that case, we wouldn’t be tricked into making suboptimal play choices!

2) Scarlet got a targeted kill. Forget the other abilities; why was the town better at nightkilling than the mafia? Why was the already overpowered Scarlet modconfirmable? And the town is told that there is no SK- because had I quoted the mafia role PM to bigAl, I almost wonder whether he would have disbelieved Flay, because what he was claiming was just plain ridiculous! But there’s nothing we can do about it. First because there’s no way for us to even guess his absurd power until he’s modconfirmed. Second, even if we knew the danger and tried to get rid of Scarlet, if the mafia tries to make the proper plays, they get burned by the setup. There’s no way to convince a decent town to lynch an uncounterclaimed cop- especially if he comes forward D1, before we even knew how our nightkill mechanic would “work”! So we have to counterclaim, and if the town plays it standardly, they’ll leave both alive. In which case, the vigkill allows Flay to confirm himself and kill the counterclaimer. The mafia are tricked into making suboptimal plays because of the limited information they are given.

3) The mafia was placed in an impossible position. There were 2 ways to nightkill: get lucky or arrange the room assignments. The only way to arrange room assignments was to claim a powerrole. There was a role that could confirm powerroles and confirm itself. And circularly, we couldn’t realistically kill this role without arranging roomchoices! And mafia do not know any of this until it is far too late. Had I known, I would have counterclaimed cop first thing…

…and it would *still* would not have worked! Because
4) We cannot counterclaim! If we counterclaim Scarlet, or any part of Scarlet’s multiple powers, the cop can vigkill the counterclaimer! Moreover, any role that looks plausible from our point of view, Scarlet should be able to recognize as false as soon as we are forced to give details from her role. And once Scarlet realizes it’s false, he has the vigkill. (Counterclaiming Peacock doesn’t work either, if the town plays it well, because putting both claimed doctors and the cop together exposes the lie and confirms Scarlet.)

5) If we manage to pull into a dominant position- we have no way of guessing Flay’s ability! There’s no reason for him to claim it ever, until he uses it; he’s got a cop claim that’s uncounterclaimable. So the mafia doesn’t win at a tie, a fact that we weren’t told until we asked specifically about it N4. If the mafia plays for what would traditionally be a win, by executing a speedlynch in lynch-or-lose, the town can recover splendidly with the targeted vigkill + majority lynches of the exposed townspeople. And once again, the mafia has no way of knowing that what should be an optimal strategy would fail.

6) Independent of the mechanic, the setup was barely balanced. The one advantage mafia seemingly had was the third member; in a 10 person game, 3 mafia seems generous. However, it started in Day, so mathematically, that’s equivalent to having a vanilla protown nightkilled during N0, making it effectively an 11 person starting at night. And since 12 person games with 8:3:1 town:mafia:SK setups are common, there’s essentially no advantage: the missing SK helps the town at least as much as it helps the mafia. The town had only 2 powerroles, but one of them was worth at least 2 traditional powerroles (cop + oneshotvig). And the mafia didn’t get any power. So while this might have been balanced for a basic game, it was by no means close to even when mafia-weakening mechanic is factored in.

7) The only way we can kill is by either (a) getting mislynches, for which townspeople have to play more suspiciously than the mafia, (b) getting nightkills, discussed in (3). The mafia were given such limited information that from their point of view, when it looked like (a) was optimal, (b) actually was, and vice versa. So not only are mafia placed in a position where they must commit to one of 2 diametrically opposed plans- but the more they learn about the setup, the more they are led to choose suboptimally! And *that’s* what’s awful about this game. The better the mafia tries to play, the worse it is for them.

So while the town could play naturally, the mafia were at extreme disadvantages. We we forced to choose rooms and plans at random, having no control over how they played out. We were severely handicapped regarding basic mafia strategies such as nightkilling and claiming, and our “advantage” in information we had was in that we knew how ignorant we were. Despite this, we got amazingly lucky, in that the town played amazingly badly except for the final night and day. But it didn’t matter. I’m staring at the setup trying to find a course of action even in hindsight which would have reasonably allowed a win, and I don’t see anything we could have done that would have changed the outcome.