Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Amrun]

Hi. Klazam has had some real life issues that prevents him from being as present as he feels the game deserved, so I am stepping in as his teammate. I was in PYP and flipped already, and have since been following this game very closely and cheerleading Klazam because I really like how the gameplay of this game shook out.

Let me gather my thoughts and get up a major post.

I'll tell you right now that I intend to vote for mith and have suspected him since I first read the game, partway through yesterday.

[Amrun]

DemonHybrid: Fair enough if you would have spoken up on suspecting Equinox, but wouldn't you also speak up (before now, when you have been asked about her directly) if you found her townish? That whole exchange with LlamaFluff reads like you were trying to defend Equinox without actually coming out and committing to a town read (in case things went south?).

First in 51, we have you responding to LlamaFluff's vote by questioning his stance on meta; the follow-up in 55 then asks (paraphrasing) "Well if you think it's Equinox-IP, why aren't you picking on IP??".

So that's part of what was odd about that exchange. Then you apparently take offense when he implies you agree with him about Equinox - again without actually saying "No, I think she's town", followed by some "I FOSed you and you didn't respond" sulking. Meh.

(I'm not sure which point you're talking about with "I believe I have the right to agree with a point, even though I don't have a specific read on a person." - if you're talking about your post 45 point 2, I'm still lost, because you're saying you have the right to agree to a point which was never made. If you're talking about some other point, clarify.)

DrippingGoofball: I'm loving a DemonHybrid/Llamarble/Equinox group right now; they were my top three independently, but DH/Equinox makes a lot of sense given the above, and I quite like Llamarble/Equinox for the sheeping, plus the end of 179: "If I were Sottytown and didn't like the parroting, I'd have liked Equinox for wavelengthsharing on disliking the Mith wagon parroting.".

This post by mith was one of the first things that bothered me, but I couldn't put my finger on it until later. First, it was just his lack of vote and his reasoning for it which I didn't like. Lack of vote is more often a scumtell than not -- however, I'm not dumb enough to think that this is anything but a nulltell in the hands of mith. But it did make me pay attention to his posts more closely.

This dancing around Equinox is, and continues to be, mith's only point against DH that has any validity whatsoever (except being off the DGB wagon, which occurred later).

mith's case on DH then shifts to attacking him for attacking Llama for attacking one out of a possible scumpair (in which the facts on both sides were all sorts of screwy).

This is quite ironic to me, and something I pointed out to Klazam, which led him to ask mith some questions about the Equinox/DH relationship according to mith.

In order for DH to be scum according to mith, it seems to me, Equinox would HAVE to be scum. Mith attacks DH for "lying" about his read on Equinox, but in this scenario, DHscum would ONLY have motivation to lie about Equinoxscum if they were scumbuddies.

So if this is the suspicious behavior mith "keyed in on," and he puts Equinox in his supposed scumteam speculation and suspects Equinox, why wouldn't he attack Equinox? In the very LEAST, why would he not take this as an impetus to look more closely at Equinox's play as a way to inform his DH read?

The whole attack on DH by mith reads to me as scum-motivated. It doesn't look to me like mith made the attack with the intent of determining alignment, and the way his read progressed seems fabricated to me. He was going for a mislynch, and was always going for a mislynch; I think a townie in this situation would have done more to look at the DH-Equinox link, but scummith would not have because he wanted to keep Equinox open as a possible mislynch later on.

[snip]
Reading through SocioPath's DGB case... mostly seems to lack substance (and has that distinctive OMGUS feel), until the last two points (about DGB trying to negate a town read on SP by calling it a null tell; and the DGB/Equinox obvtown link). Of the leading wagons, I would still feel more confident switching to Llamarble.

(LlamaFluff drops down The List™ to "solidly town" status. Still not sure what was bothering the gut, but it's gone now.)

This is a humongous pile of fencesitting which is pretty predictably followed by a turnaround. When mith posted this, the DGB wagon didn't have much weight. Here, he treated it very lightly, but did you notice his attempt to discredit Socio's case? I did. "Oh, case is bad, moving on, nothing to see here folks." But he doesn't get into the specifics of it because most of the case actually DOES have substance - and mith himself changed his mind on this later.

This is followed by even more fencesitting and another completely fabricated read progression. Highlights from progressing posts:

"Sticking with DemonHybrid for now, but I'm starting to talk myself into DGB-scum."

One last attempt to discredit socio, and then, "Sotty and Thor, point taken about the DH vote not going anywhere." (puts DGB at L-1, wagon is obviously a go by then)

With DGB at L-1: "DGB seems to be grasping for a lifeline with the Thor stuff."

Then, he gives a "summary" of why he thinks DGB is scum.

It REEKS of a late bus. Absolutely reeks.

And then this:

Ooh, great catch. Anyone know whether scum have day talk or not? I don't see anything in the OP about day talk, so I'm inclined to switch to Chris B ASAP if they do (and likewise put him solidly in the town camp if not).

So fake. This supposed "slip" from OOOOOOOBVTOWN ChrisB is just silly. His not knowing about this is just more indication of that.

VOTE: mith

More on other players to come.

[Amrun]

Also, for reference, this is my reads list I posted in our team QT before day 1 ended. I'll post an updated one when I finish giving my rundowns on players, as it has changed.

Llamarble
DGB
Mith
Thor
Equinox
Ipie
LlamaFluff
Socio
DH
Sevei
Sotty
Chris B

[Amrun]

Sotty, why does Klazam replacing out make you suspicious? What about replacing out is a scumtell?

[Amrun]

(Marble doesn't talk about [DGB], either--but I bet he will now.)

Sevei

I'll quickread DGB now and then be off for most of the day.

DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

Marble, you make no mention of anything I said about you or DGB in 217, yet you feel the need to announce you are now going to look at DGB out of the blue? Why DGB at that point specifically? Because aside from my comments, there doesn't seem to be any reason for you to have done that at that particular point in time.

This post of Sevei gave Sevei MAJOR townpoints for me, since this is something I had noticed and given Llamarble scumpoints for before Sevei actually posted it.

His analysis of the wagon on him today also keeps me at a fairly solid town read on him. The wagon on Sevei is absolute shit.

Llamarble

I think Llamarble is the most likely third partner, after mith. DGB's fake "llama" mix up was strange, as was the series of posts Sevei quoted above.

Sotty and Sevei have both made other solid points on Llamarble.

Personally, I disliked the self vote in RVS that he left on himself as he FoSed multiple people.I find multiple FoSes scummy in and of themselves, as it's usually indicative of scum laying down suspicion to fall back on if the opportunity arises. DH was the first one to point this out to me, as he went after someone for this who flipped scum while DH was town. So, if Llamarble flips scum, DH gets some scum points.

One thing that really bugged me about Llamarble today: I liked his idea about the pairing stuff, but why would he ever clear mith as someone the town agrees is obvtown? Wtf? He was at least one person's top suspect at that point. It was really strange and read as an attempt to WIFOM the town into a bunch of mislynches.

p-edit: He requested that someone else take it (suggested Rhinox) but I've loved following this game and asked to go in instead because I was itching to play.

[Amrun]

EBWOP: I meant to say that Klazam really wasn't under much pressure. P sure nobody is voting for him, even.

[Amrun]

SCUM

Mith: Covered in a previous post.

Llamarble: Covered in a previous post.

Thor: I've played with him before in a town that got nominated for best town, and his play isn't very similar. Plus the late DGB attack on him was strange.

Equinox: The way she cleared Sotty read very townie to me, though other things have been more questionable. A teammate of mine thinks she's scum, though, because Socio drew a link between Equinox and DGB and then got NKed.

Ipie: His reads are terrible, so very terrible, but I don't think he's scum.

DH: mith/DH does not feel like scum on scum. Gets minor scumpoints if Llamarble flips scum, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Sotty: Llamarble/Sotty and DGB/Sotty do not read like busses

Sevei: In previous post, but I forgot to add that I replaced a Sevei-slot once that was far more lurky even than this, and it was a town slot.

LlamaFluff: Our reads agree strongly. Mith dance around him reads as hoping for a mislynch on a town player.

Chris B: Anyone calling this player scum is probably scum, though I do wish he would post more.

TOWN

p-edit: Actually, Llamarble being an opposing wagon to DGB is a point against him, imho. DGB's buddies had a huge incentive to push Llamarble over DGB, but in fact, Llamarble's biggest opposition also suspected DGB and helped push that wagon along. I think the two biggest wagons on d1 were on scum (with the exception of the Ipie wagon, which grew much more quickly than either of those, which should tell you something).

My read on LF is above, but some elaboration:

He went through a lot of trouble to clear my slot today, and he is right. A scum player simply would not have done that in this position.

[Amrun]

Reading through ISOs to do the pairs thing out of boredom, and Klazam's ISO 16 is horrible in hindsight.

All right. The buzz in my hive(My teammates, if its not being obvious) is telling me to look @ DGB.

I'm looking and i'm finding DGB very unreadable.

Am i correct in assuming that the main case on DGB is mainly about how DGB cannot say Sociopath is town? What else? If you all could clarify this, it would be awesome.

I mean, good lord.

The only thing still giving me a townread though is D1 VCs 3/4/5/6. I can't see scum both jumping on Socio that early and close together, but... hrm.

And I would like to state for the record that this post was a result of me clamoring in the QT that DGB was scum and Socio was not and Klazam needed to reverse his reads on these two asap. He still disagreed, so he came into the thread looking for more.


p-edit: lolwhat? Do you not understand degrees? Do you think I think all four of those people are scum together?

I don't think they're all scum at all. I think mith is scum and I feel strongly about it. If I'm right about that, the game ends.

The third scum I think is Llamarble, but if I'm wrong, it is one of {Thor, Equinox}.

Ipie, you're not scum. Your reads are just terrible.

[Amrun]

I disagree with my teammate, as stated above. I just thought more opinions were better, since I had them available.

I think scum would have NKed Socio regardless, since he was above and away obviously town after the DGB flip. Plus you went out of your way to clear Sotty and I see no scum motivation for that. PoE still leaves you at #4, though.

[Amrun]

P sure Fluff could not attack mith for focusing on people on the wagon, since mith is focusing on people on the wagon: DH.

My reads ARE in order, but there is a huge amount of difference between my confidence in the top few slots. My reads are not wishy-washy and interchangeable.

I would rather no lynch than lynch anyone outside of mith or LLamarble. I would probably compromise on a Thor wagon.

I don't understand your points against Fluff, Ipie. It looks like moonbeams and nonsense to me.

[Amrun]

If that was his motivation, and this was a scumslot, wouldn't I have just taken it to begin with?

[Amrun]

Sotty, I'd like to see actual thoughts on all that I've said instead of pushing a vague suspicion on me that doesn't even make sense. You're only town by virtue of me suspecting Llamarble, to be honest.

[Amrun]

I didn't mean GET IT UP RIGHT NOW RAWRRRRRRRRR. Just saying, eventually, I would like a response from you specifically.

[Amrun]

Okay Amrun, I initially didn't like your mith vote when I first saw it. But reading you post I realize it isn't so terrible. You voice a lot of the problems I had with mith on day one up until I re-read his exchange with DH, we just came to different conclusions.

Is your read of DH tied in completely with your mith read? Same question about your Fluff read. What do you think of DH's complete lack of presence in this game? What do you think of Fluff defending DGB on day one?

After reading your posts 562 looks really out of place. You have me reasonably high on your list and yet imply that I'm only townish because of my interactions with marble. I don't like that back tracking much.

Other than that I liked your info dump almost enough to down grade you back behind Llamafluff.

My read of DH is tied in with my read of marble. If mith were to die and flip town, I'd have some re-evaluating to do.

My read on Fluff is dependent on nothing. He's town. I see his defense of DGB as a towntell more than anything. Fluffscum would bus there, in my opinion.

My post 562 is misleading. I didn't mean you are scum indepedent of the marble interaction.

However, the reason I have the degree of townread I have on you is due to my suspicion of Marblescum. Were he to flip town, you'd lose some town points but not necessarily gain any scumpoints. I would re-evaluate you and other's cases on you if that were to transpire.

[Amrun]

I also should add that mith's insistence we look outside the wagon for scum is strange, and considering how I think he's scum who bussed late, scummy.

Both scum were not off the wagon. No way.

[Amrun]

To be fair, Thor, I don't think you are scum.

If and when one/both of my top two are wrong, the whole list will shift anyway.

[Amrun]

Meaning you want me to make a towncase on Sotty? I've said all I'm going to say on that matter barring another flip.

[Amrun]

Mith:

Can you point me to somewhere you previously discussed DH being scum independent of Equinox in relation to his omission of a full read on her?

As for the second point, I did not mean you should have been voting Equinox over DH. You do express rather strong suspicion f her, but almost in a throwaway manner. You attack DH for the supposed connection between Equinox/DH, and spend most of the day arguing with him about it, and yet I see not ONE question directed at Equinox or any specific statement about her play that she could respond to. This is a major thing in my eyes that leads me towards the case not feeling genuine. I think in a townie noticing the things in DH that you noticed would be approached differenty if you were town. There would have been more curiosity, and a questioning and discussion of Equinox would have been a natural extension of that. Instead, the attack read more like looking for somethig to nail DH with.

With the confirmation bias thing in that one comment, yes. I made no bones about it. But I'll explain more what I meant. It looks to me as if you are creating a false dichotomy: scum would be off the wagon, so we must lynch from this pool of players. Knowing who you are, and namely the being the creator of this set-up, your talks of theory have a lot of sway. It is possible that you have an entirely different theory of bussing in this set-up than me, but regardless of your own strategy, I think you would know that we must account for all styles of play. In short, I think you are using seductive but false reasoning to line up mislynches.

I think it's far more likely that at least one of the scum bussed. As it so happens, I suspect one person on the wagon and one off. I think it's a distraction to obsess about what scum would do, because people play scum in countless different ways. What we should be looking for HOW people got on or stayed off the wagon: was it scummy? What were their motivations?

(That last bit is also an answer for Equinox.)

DH: I go out of my way to defend you and then you call ChrisB scum. -.-

P-edit: I actually think you are tunneling.

[Amrun]

Explain how ChrisB is scummy, DH.

I like mith's answers to my questions and now I'm confused. :/

[Amrun]

DH, tell me how the ChrisB/DGB interaction is a bus. Explain it.

[Amrun]

I'm listening, but I was more referring to DGB's clumsy attempt to redirect her wagon onto ChrisB. If that was a bus by DGB, I'll be impressed. I think she was trying to save her hide.

[Amrun]

You're going to need to explain more than that, Equinox.

Ipie, you drastically misinterpreted (what I interpreted as) LlamaFluff's intent in that post.

[Amrun]

I think what he was saying is that there is absolutely not enough support to lynch me today, and that if he was convinced of Amrunscum, he must necessarily be convinced of DHscum, which does have support, so the vote makes little sense.

And it was also an attempt to show that if I were scum, I could only be scum with DH and no one else, so I don't make sense as scum.

That's how I read it, anyway. He wasn't saying me or DH actually is scum.

[Amrun]

Because he doesn't think either of us are scum, especially me.

If DH flipped scum, my attack on mith would becom a humongous chainsaw.

It seemed pretty obvious to me.

[Amrun]

I didn't defend him. I don't see it that way.

You were calling llamafluff scum for something he never did or said. I'm not going to sit by and let that happen to anyone.

I have no idea how you reached the conclusions you reached from his post. There were several leaps of logic that were just in outer space.

You want it to be defending? Llama is town, so sure, whatever. Knock yourself out.

[Amrun]

Because I thought that Ipie would regard that as Llama "backtracking" when in fact, it was ipie grosssly misinterpreting what had been said in the first place.

I thought he might listen to a third partym. I didn't sit there and think about it for 10 years. I saw ipie derping it ad thought I'd correct it, especially as other people were lisrening to him for som inexplicable reason.

I wish someone had done the same for TFH and mith when they were arguing in outer space on day1.

[Amrun]

Because I thought that Ipie would regard that as Llama "backtracking"

Read the post(s) again. Ipie even says as much.

And once again, he demonstrates an astonishing ability to misunderstand.

Llama's townread on m is stronger than his townread on DH. Capisce? This is basic reading comprehension, people.

And yes, sotty, llama is one of my top townreads. I posted a list a couple of pages ago.

[Amrun]

Oh, no, that's not what I was reacting to. I was shocked at your explanation. If LlamaFluff is town, he should be able to defend himself on his own terms. Instead, you didn't trust him to be able to do that and galloped in, banners raised, for fear that InflatablePie would accuse LlamaFluff of backtracking.

I'm not against people defending their town reads -- I do that myself -- but in this case, that was a poor move, as you could have simply waited to get reactions from both InflatablePie and LlamaFluff before acting. I'm just stuck deciding on whether or not you'd do this as scum for your scum buddy because it's too bloody obvious of a move, but...

damn

.

I didn't really take 10 years thinking about it. I just said something offhand about how ipie was reading some other post on some other continent in some other game, you asked me to clarify, so I did.

I think Llamafluff could explain himself perfectly clearly, and I never have any issue understanding his posts.

Ipie, however, suffers from some severe confirmation bias, and I don't have as much faith in his ability to interpret posts, as has been demonstrated throughout the game. That's why his reads are very wrong (I think, anyway). No offense, ipie, that's just what I think.

[Amrun]

Ipie, however, suffers from some severe confirmation bias.

Hey, mudslinging!

How's THAT for confirmation bias?

Should I pretend that you don't? You twist everything someone you suspect does to be scummy, often blatantly misinterpreting the posts and intents of the posts to do so.

I, however, believe these to be genuine mistakes in your case.

[Amrun]

Should I pretend that you don't? You twist everything someone you suspect does to be scummy, often blatantly misinterpreting the posts and intents of the posts to do so.

I, however, believe these to be genuine mistakes in your case.

Honestly, you and Fluff are my scumteam pick at the moment, so obviously damn near everything you two post are going to seem suspicious to me.

You are, however, attacking my playstyle and/or skill in order to discredit my argument. There's a difference between this and just saying "hey, you misread that" and leaving it as such, which you shouldn't need to post (as town) when it's directed at another player.

To be honest, if you just would have said "okay whatever" instead of even going as far as to defend Fluff AGAIN in 659 after I ask Sotty a question, I would have let you off the hook. "Pie, you're nuts. k?" would have probably gotten me off your case.

But no, the middle two parts in 659 are what's gotten me uncomfortable right now.

At this point, if you flip town, I'm going to have to re-evaluate all of my reads.

Unvote, Vote: Amrun

PEdit: what the hell is that a ChrisB wall

I'd really appreciate it if you actually listened to what Fluff and even mith have said. I don't make sense as scum in really any team. It sounds rather lame when I say it as opposed to other people saying it, but objectively, it is true.

I'm not trying to call you a bad player. I'm just saying that in this particular game, you're letting blind confidence in your reads distract you from evaluating. It's happened to me before, for sure. It's hard to see it when you're in it.

Go look at Open 289 Hardboiled if you want to see me being pants on head town with wrong reads that wouldn't listen. What a sad game for me.

[Amrun]

If anyone is interested, see Cold War mafia where Llama went so far as to fake a governor role to save me from a lynch. We were both town.

I learned something valuable from him that day: don't let your town reads get lynched if you can help it.

I feel very strongly that Llama is town, and I'm not going to let someone misrepresent his posts so badly without so much as correcting them.

That's just how it is going to be. Scumreads are only half of a mafia game. The other half is town reads and they're just as important.

[Amrun]

Once again, you and Equinox are conveniently ignoring what actually happened. I didn't set out to defend Llama or anything. I just made a comment that iPie was misinterpreting Llama's post, Equinox ASKED me what I thought about it, so I answered.

So, Equinox, if you thought it was better for me to wait for llama, then you probably shouldn't have asked me about it. Convenient how you forget that you actually prompted what you are taking issue with.

Ipie, I wasn't looking for scum or town points with the Cold War example. My point was that it's a null tell, not a scumtell. I don't understand why anyone is trying to cal that a null tell. Seems rather silly. What Cold War is is proof that Llama and I in particular will defend each other as town if we have town reads on each other. If you want to argue we would do it as scum, then okay, go ahead, but my point is that we have and would do it as town. So this thing you're hemming and hawwing about means nothing.

As for Llama's towniness, I already explained that I do NOT think that LLama would defend a buddy like that, especially in this set up. So his interaction with DGB says that LLama is town pretty clearly to me.

If he's ever under any sort of pressure, I might go farther, but that should be enough, really. Llamascum plays for the longhaul. Check it out.

[Amrun]

In fact, NOT A SINGLE PERSON has given me a solid, believable explanation on WHY they think Chris B is town. His play has been OPTIMAL newish scum play and you guys are focusing on fucking -Amrun-?!

I gave you one. You ignored it.

[Amrun]

His play is clumsy, but I liked it day 1.

And day 2 he made a big ol' slip that just shows he's not scum.

[Amrun]

His play is clumsy, but I liked it day 1.

And day 2 he made a big ol' slip that just shows he's not scum.

You mean the slip that really was null in the end, since it was ambiguous as to whether he really meant team QTs or scum daytalk?

No, because it wasn't.

[Amrun]

Except he didn't need a townie gambit. He was already not the lynch.

His play day 1 and the things he noticed made me think he was town with a level of confidence.

I'll look back and rethink it.

But for your sake, I'd think about another suspect you are willing to compromise on.

[Amrun]

I have decided I'm willing to compromise on a Sotty lynch, though it's still not optimal.

Llamarble or mith is who should be swinging for real.

[Amrun]

Why willing to compromise with an Amrun vote now, Sotty? That doesn't really make sense with your previous statements.

And if you're willing to compromise on mith, why not do it?

[Amrun]

Tell me how an Amrun wagon is more viable than a Llamarble and/or a LlamaFluff wagon. As far as I know, the only one who wants to see me hang today is Ipie, who would happily hang Fluff as well. (If I forgot anyone, go ahead and correct.)

Everyone is mostly ignoring my mith case and points on Llamarble, all of which I'd like to see discussed.

[Amrun]

To be honest, I feel a little less confident than I felt earlier in the day that mith is scum precisely because I do like some of the answers he gave.

However, I still feel overall MORE confident that you are scum over anyone else at this point. I do feel that I have questioned you all that will be productive without another flip, in any case. (And I did very have several back and forths with mith about my case, Sotty, ftr.)

Llamarble I didn't question as much because he seemed to be on V/LA at the time I posted and I assumed he would post about it later, though he hasn't.

Llamarble: please post more about this.

Llamafluff: I meant to ask you to comment on my Llamarble post, since you also suspected him. What do you think about it.

Something I commented on and never directly asked DH: Why did you not find Llamarble's multiple FoSes without a vote on d1 scummy in the way that you found IS and/or Tasky's multiple FoSes scummy in New Designers mafia?

[Amrun]

Was IS's FoSes all in the same post? I can't remember.

Tasky's was for sure. I forgot about IS, but I think so. Link is in my wiki, if you need it.

[Amrun]

IS's FoSes were all in different posts.

Tasky's were in the same posts, but they were three separate and different FoSes with different intentions. I don't think that style applies to Llamarble.

How so?

[Amrun]

Also, Chris says that he's the most vulnerable and an easy "mislynch".

He's also on drugs, probably. Either that or he chose to ignore the fact that everyone but me has a town read on him.

I'm not asking you to explain it for my health.

[Amrun]

LLamarble, get a hold of yourself. I never said I agreed with all of Sevei's arguments. I said I think Sevei is town. I do not understand this leap of logic.

I also have no control over Klazam. He was kind of flaking, obviously, and selectively posted some things I screamed the loudest about. I guess he didn't agree about my read on you.

[Amrun]

But why are Tasky's FoSes scummy and Llamarble's not?

[Amrun]

I agreed with the latter, not the thing about 217. I don't see how discrediting my town read on Sevei by calling it "retarded" accomplishes anything pro-town.

[Amrun]

I don't disagree with "I had same thought as X before X posted it -> townread on X;" This is logic I use all the time.
I am saying given Sevei's argument making no sense, I do not see town coming to the same conclusion before she did.
I have "say I agreed with something my scumbuddy said before they said it and give them a townread" in my scumbagotricks, so I think you did this but failed to evaluate whether it was actually possible for you to have had that thought before Sevei did.

Of course it was possible for me to have that thought before Sevei did, as that is what happened. You clearly have never understood what Sevei was saying to begin with, so arguing about it is like arguing with a brick wall as you refuse to understand or see anyone else's point of view - and also seem to think disagreeing with you is a scum tell, which it is not.

Sotty: I don't fully suspect you, so I won't give a case. It's mostly that my gut is less comfortable with you than it is with some other people. I could point out a couple of posts here and there that struck me the wrong way, but I won't since I don't want to lynch you today. If I were trying to get you lynched, I would have posted a case on you long before.

[Amrun]

@DH - If you're scum, you've owned my face.
If you're town, than I sort of equally hate this tunneling muck of a town too - so we have that to bond over

Sorry, DH bro. Looks like you're going to hang today. No fault of mine.

[Amrun]

I say we take all the time we need. I don't know why people's panties are getting all bunched up.

Your town flip will help my cases so oh well.

[Amrun]

It's not LyLo, so I'm not worried. I said what I think about your slot. Others don't agree.

In case I'm pants-on-heading this, the game could be over. So whatevs.

[Amrun]

Yay, equinox. :goodposting:

[Amrun]

Yes. mith could happen and my case is wonderful.

[Amrun]

I do agree that this DH issue will not go away until he dies. *sigh*

[Amrun]

I hate this game.

DH's team can take a running jump for all I care. Saying I avoided contact with Sevei is lolsy when I have defended her hammer practically all day.

More later when I have woken up properly.

This smells ever so slightly of a "caught for the wrong reasons" hissy fit. Nothing definitive, though.

ChrisB, why are townreads bad?

[Amrun]

Attacking Equinox for lack of fencesitting

Lol.jpg

[Amrun]

What is the scum motivation for Equinox's action?

[Amrun]

Equinox, help me make mith happen.

If I'm wrong, I swear I'll sheep your vote tomorrow.

[Amrun]

Wagon+Equinox+Thor+a reasonable member of society=6

In the very least, he's less obvtown than DH.

*puppy dog eyes*

P-edit: it varies on the player. Possibly a one-on one-off kind of deal. I lean towards both on, though. More likely than avid defending is smply being off the wagon, though anything is possible.

[Amrun]

I do agree that this DH issue will not go away until he dies. *sigh*

What, this one? Yell away.

Is Sotty a doable compromise wagon? Or even better, Llamarble?

[Amrun]

I keep forgetting this set up! Bump my thoughts on likelihood of defense up. But I have townreads on the people defending DH.

[Amrun]

I prefer DHwagon to Seveiwagon.

[Amrun]

Mith, what don't you like about me saying DH town will help my cases etc? Do you think I am rolling over and letting the wagon go through?

[Amrun]

P sure that case on Sotty is good. Really good. Re-evaluate my read on mith good. Hmmm...

[Amrun]

So I am fairly certain the scum are in this group: {mith, Sotty, Llamarble}

Won't be voting anyone else today, except I'd probably hammer either DH or Sevei if it was an actual choice between no lynch and a flip and I was the only hope for any flip whatsoever. Still severely prefer one of the above three, though.

[Amrun]

What terrible wagon choices.

[Amrun]

I don't understand why Sotty thinks mith is confirmed town. I don't understand the point she is tryng to make, so I. Can't even disagree with it.

Sotty, did you seriously just tell me to DO something about all my town reads being wagoned? SERIOUSLY?! I've made cases for my scumreads, made cases against my town reads, begged, pleaded, tried to bargain with my votes... What the hell else SHOULD I do? Tell me, and I will do it.

If we wagon fluff today and I get ana greement from each player on the wagon to lynch sotty tomorrow immediately if fluff is town, I'll fucking do it.

[Amrun]

Oh, I see. Well I already made that consideration and decided not to totally discount mith as scum for this, though I am more willing to wagon Llamarble and/or Sotty over mith partially due to that. However, three scum role pms is totally possible.

Yes, I see a Sotty/mith team as entirely possible.

[Amrun]

VOTE: Sotty

It isn't the best lynch, but it doesn't make Baby Jesus cry like the other lynch candidates.

[Amrun]

Tbh, I had Ipie as town because I thought he would try harder to have followable reads as scum...

That is a nice, sweet sweet find. Ipie is still a higher percentage more likely to be town than several of my top reads, but... DGB is queen of WIFOM so this makes me wary, but that comment is giving me scumtingles.

Unless wagon support crops up, I'll simply enter this as my intent to reconsider if Sotty flips town.

Sotty, if you are town, keep the content coming and I promise to not forget you as soon as you are dead.

[Amrun]

Thor I'm serious. We have needed a lynch for the past week almost, there is quite a lot of out lying support for my lynch. You're coasting and have been all game. I'm getting real sick of it.

True story - last time you called me out for coasting I was on your wagon.
Now I'm coasting for not being on it.
Clue - I'm not coasting.

This pretends to make sense but actually doesn't.

[Amrun]

I hate everyone in here right now.

Also, thor, I didn't say you were coasting. I said your post didn't make sense.

Fucking lynch sotty. That was so opportunistic and right after her "lynch me first; it will help town" resignation.

[Amrun]

I wouldn't have if you weren't all "woe is me, lynch me to help town" before that, sotty.

P-edit: I didn't, even though that isn't a question for me.

P-edit a million: I didn't really think that was why she said it the second time. Sotty, was it?

[Amrun]

No, it's the same for me. No role pm.

[Amrun]

#1027 is terrible posting.

[Amrun]

I am now willing to vote singer. I could have been wrong about Sevei.

[Amrun]

I want to hammer but I suppose I'll be good and wait for singer's (probable) final post(s).

[Amrun]

Singer is probablly town; I was right about Sevei.

[Amrun]

Yeah... Why are you ignoring Llamarble, DH?

Vote: Llamarble

[Amrun]

Also, this false dilemma stuff is dumb.

[Amrun]

And?

[Amrun]

And?

Do you think it's likely that Llamarble's vote on singer was a quick vote to mislynch, in that case?

No. Do I think that has much relevance to Llamarble's alignment? Also no.

If scumFluff were going for a threat kill, it would havemore likely been Equinox, who is a near universal town read and a bit more of a mover and a shaker.

My personal theory is that they did it so we would wifom ourselves to death with Ipie's incorrect reads.

I suggest mostlyignoring ipie's reads and only proceeding with his slot as conftown in our minds, but I doubt this suggestion will be too popular.

Also if this post doesn't make sense, I may or may not be asleep right now and dreaming about making this post.

[Amrun]

Well, I did suggest that Socio was a threat kill. Rather, my teammates through me.

That was either missed or still done in spite, since I was moderately suspected yesterday. I think LlamaFluff is the optimal lynch for today, though I'd love to hear other opinions.

Is the point of this post to say that you agree with me about Llamarble? I am having a hard time figuring it out.

[Amrun]

Equinox, I've been saying Ipie's reads were bad since before I even replaced into the game. I have nothing against ipie and he is a fine player, but his. Reads. Are. Bad.

He spent two whole days hemming and hawing about Seveiscum, and what was Sevei? Town. His other top suspects? Me (I know I'm town) and LlamaFluff (a townread of mine).


You are the biggest threat to Llama, not ipie, so I don't buy a threat kill - and I don't buy that llama would make an obvious threat kill as scum anyway.

I'm saying I think scum killed ipie for the following reasons: 1) He was a very difficult mislynch, 2) to send town chasing itself in circles of WIFOM.

But of course, not everyone will agree with this theory.

[Amrun]

They kind of flip flop, so I'm not sure. What exactly is your stance on Llama? I don't remember you declaring him a weak town read. Not saying you didn't, because I haven't re-read.

Do me up a reads list and I will tell you what I think of them.

In general, I thought your reads have been better than ipie's, and I could at least follow your trains of thoughts.

And iirc, you had a townread on DH, so we agree there.

[Amrun]

SHOCKING! Not.

[Amrun]

Mith, why did you give justification for a llamarble vote and vote llamafluff? I don't understand.

[Amrun]

The mod made the same marble mixup as DGB. He's scum!

I basically disagree with every single point of mith's "case" against Fluff.

I would support a mith wagon but I prefer Llamarble.

[Amrun]

Not only are marble's parameters dumb, he doesn't even follow them properly. He deflated other pairings to make mine highest. Yawn. Too easy.

[Amrun]

Llamarble, so let me get this straight.

You don't want to vote based on your graph because as scum you'd work to rule out pairings.

Yet I have the most pairings on your graph and you are voting for me.

If you are not voting based on most pairings OR on least pairings, what is the point of the graph at all?

[Amrun]

I haven't seen you demonstrate any such reasoning.

[Amrun]

The chart isn't the reason I suspect llamarble.

The "lack of vote" thing referred to the long expanse of d1 that lacked a vote from mith. At first, this was the only thing that bothered me about him as I was following along, but it didn't count for much because I thought mith would avoid such an obvious scumtell as scum - but then when his tunnneling emerged, I found that scummy on its own.

[Amrun]

In the thing about mith, I was saying that when I was reading along, I was paying more attention because mith hadn't put down a vote early in the game, and that post stuck out to me and at first I couldn't figure out why - then eventually I figured it out, as explained in the rest of the post. I do realize now that the wording was confusing.

I have never played with Fluffscum but I have skimmed several Fluffscum games and read completely and organically farside's Dating Game mafia just because I was interested in the set up and followed it. Fluff was scum and I read that correctly before he got outted by the cop (though I wasn't in the game so I didn't post that, obviously).

I believed iPie was town throughout the whole game and never doubted that. I told Klazam that in our QT when he was getting wagoned and I don't think I ever cast suspicion on him or tried to after I replaced in. The reasoning for this is related to his early wagon, the way it built, and his behavior around it. It was very townie. Some other people earned higher town reads because they acted town AND had good reads, and/or acted more town than him. Ipie's emotions read as genuine to me, but his reads were bad, as I have said. I never once expressed a willingness to vote for him.

As for singer, singer was acting scummy, imho. I thought the "are there two scum?" thing was fake after she saw people write Chris B off for a mistake and to a lesser extent, me, and her reads felt lazy and opportunistic (though they were just lazy as she wasn't really into the game yet, as it turned out). Still, my townread on Sevei warranted caution, hence the waiting before hammering - and then her reaction after she was hammered was sooooooooooo townie that I knew my read on Sevei had been right all along. Those posts you quoted look disjointed in isolation, but they fail to take into account context. During that time period, I was very busy and phone posting and didn't have time to be as transparent as I like to be in an ideal world.

re: mith and re: you, I will get back to you once I dig up the relevant posts to demonstrate my thoughts.

[Amrun]

Ipie: His reads are terrible, so very terrible, but I don't think he's scum.

This is the first time I address Ipie in my big info dump - this is what I say about him, and this never once changes. Sotty, you are attempting to twist this into a contradiction that just is not there.

Amrun: Other than the possibility that he omitted the read simply because he didn't actually

have

a read (i.e. wasn't genuinely scumhunting), in 215 I mentioned the possible conclusions I could draw from his omission (scum with Equinox, pushing mislynch on IP, or both).

I didn't ask anything of Equinox because I didn't have anything to ask her about. ~shrug~ Her response to my initial suspicion (87, before I'd caught up with the game and started in on DemonHybrid) was fine, even if I didn't totally buy it. After that, my bad feelings about her were more related to odd behaviour from other players than anything she was doing herself, and while I like to throw out comments about pairings early in the game to illicit reactions (and to note for later), I don't tend to rely on them much until I have some flips to work with (no doubt, that's part of why I find argument's like DH's - about the Equinox-IP pairing he thought LlamaFluff was suggesting - scummy).

(Also, keep in mind that when you say I spend "most of the day" arguing with DH, we're talking about two real-time days.)

I am not saying that the scum are both absolutely 100% off the wagon. What I am saying is that I find it extremely unlikely both scum are

on

the wagon (both because of bus theory, and because of strong town reads on some of those players - IP, Thor, Sotty), and given that the pool of suspects off wagon is now 4, and we have 4 tries to get this right...

Part of that feeling actually stems from me taking into account all styles of play (and specifically, the impression I have of the site meta): in the current game, bussing is almost

expected

of scum. Even the most well timed bus may not buy much town cred, so sacrificing a partner in a game with so little room for error would seem a foolish play for the scum. (Admittedly, part of why people are so wary of bussing is due to its prevalence, but I do think the setup would encourage scum to protect each other more than the norm.)

This is the particular post of mith's in response to my own where I said I liked this response. mith stopped tunneling DH so much and actually switched his read on DH - and also defended me pretty heavily. The switch on DH wasn't necessary; after the investment in DH, he could have kept going there, but he didn't. Not sure scum mith would have done that so close to to finish line of getting DH lynched. His defense of me made me uncomfortable, a bit, though - while I saw it as a towntell in Llama, in mith it is null because I was so heavily attacking mith that it could have been an attempt to buddy to me to reverse my read.

So, after all is said and done, I find mith less scummy than I once did, hence why my erstwhile second lynch candidate (Llamarble) has moved into the #1 slot. However, by PoE, mith is still scummier than a lot of the other slots who I have outright townreads on. I feel a little confused about mith myself, so it is natural you sense a little confusion there. Another thing I don't like is how Llamarble wrote off mith in his pairings thing initially so I still see an associative tell there. Also, he is attacking Fluff today with points I disagree with and Fluff is a townread of mine.

As for those points, which you asked about:

I've said a lot about LlamaFluff already. Nothing I said yesterday as changed: He defended DGB (pretty strongly), then tried to push the bussing angle, his vote for me was weakly justified and didn't make sense in the context of "one of Sotty/Llamarble definitely scum", possibly setting up mislynches in post (710) on the basis of a likely DH mislynch (a stronger point for me now that I'm feeling the DH-town vibe), and of course there's the bad Sevei vote.

With Llamarble, it's more that I want substance from him. I'm trying to be more conscious of him sliding under the radar, because so far I don't have much of a feel for him at all - the big point against him for me is where his vote has been placed (off DGB, on singersinger). He's my number two as much by PoE as anything; he hasn't done anything that makes me think he's town.

I have explained that I don't think defending DGB is a scumtell for Fluff. I don't think Llama's vote for mith was THAT poorly justified, and given my relative reads on these two players, I don't find that a scumtell. I don't think Llama was setting up mislynches, and Llama defended himself on this point quite well; even mith himself said he understood why I don't see this as a scumtell. The Sevei vote I don't see as a scumtell, because Llama obviously qualified it as being a compromise vote. When no one will wagon your top scumreads, you choose the townread whose townflip will aid your cases the most... This seems obvious and town-motivated to me and I play that way and have done so in this very game.


About you, I think my thought process on you has been fairly transparent - not entirely, but it is not as obscure as you are making it out to be. In the early game, I found you to be pretty townish because I totally followed, understood, and agreed with your attacks on Llamarble, and this continues to be the biggest point in your favor. However, after I replaced in, you made some sloppy attacks that I thought were closing to mudslinging than scumhunting - for example, you suggesting that I replaced into Klazam's slot because I am a better scum player than Klazam, which I quickly broke down as a bad argument, and also you telling me if I didn't want DH or Sevei lynched, I should "do something about it" when I was clearly doing all I could, but also your continual attacks on Thor for coasting when I don't think he was. You don't seem very committed to your reads, either, which concerns me. Yesterday, I was willing to lynch you as a compromise simply because the other top candidates were DH and Sevei, both of whom I have very strong town reads, and if you were to die and flip town, it would aid me in getting Llamarble lynched at the very least. How is that hard to understand? Three townreads get strung up... you choose the townread that is the weakest to vote for.

If I missed anything, let me know.

[Amrun]

Updated reads list:

SCUM

Llamarable
--
mith
Sotty7
Thor 665
--
Equinox
--
LLamaFluff
DemonHybrid
Chris B

TOWN

Linebreaks denote leaps in level of scumminess. The {mith, Sotty, Thor} category fluctuate periodically.

[Amrun]

Thinking about it a little more, the whole iPie thing really bothers me. Why would I spend so much time insulting the reads of someone I was trying to buddy? That is ludicrous.

[Amrun]

You said something like, "I don't vote without an intent to lynch" and it just seemed counter-productive. How else is the game moved along? But as I said, I didn't take this for a scumtell, it just caught my eye.

[Amrun]

ChrisB, vote Llamarble then.

Thor, Chris made a huge case on Sotty... It concerns me that you don't know this.

[Amrun]

He did vote Sotty, though that quick switch was a bit weird... I didn't actually expect him to do it, though I am glad of the wagon support.

And it concerns me because it doesn't bode well if you don't take note of the basic pushes and cases in the game, because only scum wouldn't be aware of them - and asking for case repeats is just asking fpr distracting noise.

If you're not concerned with cases, Thor, why did you ask Chris to restate his Sotty case?

[Amrun]

Not complaining. I want Llamarble lynched.

[Amrun]

Sotty, I gave a whole nice little paragraph explaining my iPie townread, but here is a recap: his early wagon built too quick and he had an excessivily town reaction to it, and overall he was very committed to his reads in a way that read as genuine.

Your weak meta crap has merit, now? Funny, because after I pointed out its flaws, you said something to the effect of, "Yeah, you're right. I am really tired and should stop posting," thereby distancing yourself from your own admittedly bad argument. If I was going to choose a scum role due to my own strong scum meta (which is arguable to begin with; also my scum record is no longer perfect), it only follows that I would have done it from the start - and my original game is done and I was town.

And you ignored the context of post 730. Two of my strongest townreads were the opposing wagons, but YOUR wagon had marginal support and your townread wasn't as strong by far - and as I said, I was hoping to use your townflip as a point in my Llamarble case, if the game continued. Obviously, I had people I would rather wagon, but those obviously were not going to happen that day. This point in your "case" is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

Fair enough that you were comitted to DH, but what happened to Llamarble in your eyes? The reason I had you so far down my town list early on was due to your Llamarble case, but as the game progresses and you continue to not support Llamarble wagons, the probability of a Llamarble+Sotty team raises. At this point, I find Llamarble+mith likelier, but Sotty+Llamarble is no longer out of the question.

And I did answer about Fluffscum. You missed it.

[Amrun]

Also, Thor: sorry if I mislead you, but my recent reads list is correct in regards to my thoughts of your relative scumminess. I just really don't want to waste my life by re-reading a Chris B recap wall. I read it the first time.

[Amrun]

No, that was not it. I responded about ipie in my response to your wall where you voted me. I also disagree that the DGB wagon was faster.

The middle-to-upper echelons of my replace-in reads list were fluid, and you only warranted such a high spot on it is due to Llamarble - and my read on mith was much stronger at that point. Several things happened in between the posting of that list and when you became a compromise - my townread on you decreased as I experienced your play organically, and my townread on others increased. But you attack this whole thing as if I was trying to get you lynched because I thought you were scum. This was never, and still is not, the case. I truly believe that you are intelligent enough to understand the concept of compromise lynches, so this is silly.

As for Fluff, 570 refers to several things: me witnessing Fluff bus as scum previously, and Fluff's discussions of White Flag theory in this thread.

The other post did not refer to Fluff's scumplay at all. Someone was suggesting that iPie was a threatkill from Fluff. I was saying that that was a silly theory because iPie wasn't even the biggest threat to Fluff - Equinox is.

I skimmed his games during Cold War, I skimmed some more during reading along with dating game, and a couple of more during [redacted], with varying degrees of attention. In every game I have played/read along with so far, I have read Fluff correctly, for whatever reason, so thathelps my degree of confidence in my read here.

[Amrun]

That being said - I bet scumFluff would be capable of tricking me. I still choose to trust my reads here.

[Amrun]

I will need more than that to dissuade me, Thor.

[Amrun]

Your beard is lovely, but it doesn't help me here.

[Amrun]

And your lack of case on Sotty is better because...?

I do grant that the way he cleared you is a point in his favor.

[Amrun]

Oh my God, just had a huge moment of "Thor and Llamarble make a very good scumpair" moment.

Not that that means a lot except I still want to lynch Llamarble.

[Amrun]

EBWOP: paranoi, not moment, at the end of that sentence.

[Amrun]

I don't even remember the one DGB presented.

Just because cases involve a degree of confirmation biias doesn't make cases bunk. Without them, mafia is just a gut game, and I don't play that way.

Like I said, my moment of paranoia doesn't change anything except that. I don't care if Llamarble cleared you with meta. I was liking mith+Llamarble for several reasons including that they fit the "one on, one off" scenario I think is most likely with DGB. I realized you fit it too, as well as marble calling you both town for inexplicable reasons; he even "messed up" his chart in your favor.

[Amrun]

Your opinion varies from mine on the level of Llamarble's scumminess.

Present a case on Sotty that trumps mine on Llamarble and mith.

[Amrun]

Yes. After requesting that we wait to give input until after Socio had responded to Klazam's case, Klazam asked us to evaluate his case on Sociopath, which prompted me to read the thread for the first time. He was very confused by DGB and didn't have any definite read on her, but felt that socio was scummy. Something in there wasn't adding up for him, so he asked our opinions. I was really the only one to take a vested interest in helping him (hence my replace-in later when Klazam got busy irl).

At that time, I clamored for Klazam to re-evaluate his reads on these two players, because I had a strong scumread on DGB (and by virtue of this, a townread on Socio). Klazam noted this in thread by saying something about "the bees in my hive are buzzing about DGB."

He still didn't totally agree, and then he went v/la and never truly came back.

[Amrun]

Something that just occurred to me: Thor, if you don't believe in the value of cases, why did you encourage Chris B to re-state his case on Sotty earlier? At first, you said you wanted more discussion of Sotty going on - but why, if cases are all bunk? If you want more cases and discussion of Sotty going on, why is it important that it come from someone other than yourself?

[Amrun]

Thor: What I'm saying is why is that important that that case come from OTHER PLAYERS? At the very least, you could have quoted this post of yours, since all you wanted was a rehashing anyway:

@Chris B

Though i consider my skills reading DGB to be roughly akin to my skills reading braille, my team of birdies all generally agree that DGB 1. doesn't care for town games and 2. would have been more...DGBish (derpy? I dunno) if she had been town. Since I can't read the silly bint anyway, she's a solid A1 lynch in my opinion.

I'll add in Socio/my call on how she's called some things scummy and then later did those things (meta defense) which is pretty silly, since when people are asked about meta it's not scummy to answer the question by referencing meta - the fact she claimed it looked scummy when others did it then becomes a really sketchy scumtell. Plus, she did it on me, and I'm awesome and have a sweet beard, so she was obviously off her rocker.

That's the long and short of it from me, if you're one of those players who believes a wallpost case is somehow more townish than just pretend I quoted every instance she brought up meta and blathered on for about a paragraph (repeating myself semi-constantly) about how she's being scummy again, and also probably dug up the Metropolis and SA games she was in and had another long speech about how research there shows a lack of enjoyment in dull roles and dull setups. Plus I could probably have mixed in a lengthy spiel of point by point insults that I'd pass off as 'analysis' wherein I attack everything she ever said to me and kept saying insightful things that would really just be summed up as 'look, I think she's flaling' when she attacked me after coming back to the game.

My thought at the time of questioning was you wanted to keep your hands clean, which is still valid, BUT I just re-read your ISO and it confirmed that I do in fact still have a townread on you.

Question: Do you still think mith is town?

[Amrun]

Oh, woops. I quoted the wrong post. You know which post I meant, I trust.

Since when do you suspect me?

[Amrun]

1. I'll presume it's a weakly padded out case that really says 'gut' sure.
2. Really? Since sorta last page and mostly this page. You felt like a sudden assault on me as soon as I voiced any issues with the Llamarble lynch you're working on, and it felt paranoid and scummish as opposed to dismissive and townish.

1. Basically.

2. Why do you associate "paranoid" with scum and "dismissive" with town? I have opposite associations.

[Amrun]

Not sure how I've done that, nor do I really care. I'm fighting to get my scumreads lynched and I'll do it anyway I please.

"Well I sure hope other people post cases" doesn't cut it for me.

[Amrun]

Those questions I asked you were not about your case or lack of case on Sotty; they were about discerning YOUR motivations. That's why I don't care about Chris B's case. I understand his motivations.

Through asking those questions, I came to feel a little more confident in my conclusion about you (town) - which serves YOUR goal as well, becuase it makes Sotty a little more likely to be scum in my estimation.

Therefore, you are actually the one arguing the medium and mistaking the message.

I don't like that you are discouraging questions and allignment-probing by labeling me as scummy for being proactive, but I think you are just mistaken rather than scum.

[Amrun]

Mith, would you consider switching to Llamarble?

[Amrun]

Also, that post is so beautiful that Sotty overtakes mith in the sccumlist.

That point on Llamarble/Thor is excellent.

[Amrun]

Equinox, are you SERIOUSLY not even voting?

Come on.

[Amrun]

I don't like Fluff's more recent posts and it is slightly damaging my townread on him - but it was so strong before that he is still nowhere in the realm of lynchability for me today. Basically my view has shifted from "would rather NL than lynch Fluff" to "would hammer to avoid NL but still do not want to lynch."

Shit yo I am moving mith down to above Equinox. Lulz shifting reads.

[Amrun]

Thor, if you help me lynch Llamarble today, if I am wrong, I will help you lynch Sotty tomorrow.

I'll even do up a sheepable case for her, even if it is bunk according to you.

CHAININGLYNCHESLOL

[Amrun]

Vote Llamarble. This wagon has cookies - and if you join, it will have ponies!

[Amrun]

Yeeeessss this pleases Amrun.

[Amrun]

Why not?

[Amrun]

Also, that post is so beautiful that Sotty overtakes mith in the sccumlist.

That point on Llamarble/Thor is excellent.

What? Mith has me as more likely town after that post.

Why not?

You being number one cheerleader here and trying to chain my lynch afterwards makes my gut reaction to not hammering a pretty good one I think.

A) I am not sheeping mith. I just think that post was really townie - not that I necessarily agree with every word.

B) I got the impression that he meant more likely town than the Llamas, not an actual townread, but he can clarify this.

C) Promising to help someone lynch my #2 scumread if my #1 scumread is incorrect is not exactly chaining lynches; it is the logical course of action - but even if it were chaining lynches, why would that affect your read of Llamarble? How would you even know there would be a tomorrow?

The more I read this the more it feels like a scumslip. I want to vote for you but I am loathe to take the pressure off of Llamarble. You have a 9/10 chance of being scum, Sotty.

[Amrun]

But, Llama, a Sotty/Llamarble pair makes sense and you don't sway me.

BUT the wagon reactions are a little lame.

Vote: Sotty7

Equinox, re-join me.

[Amrun]

SO in other news.

Feeling a lot less confident about LlamaFluff.

[Amrun]

I agree that Sotty could be a mith partner.

So let's lynch it.

[Amrun]

Well, I think Sotty/Llamarble is a more likely pairing. I don't really see Llamarble scum without you, sotty, or dh - and dh is out.

Sotty's defense of Llamarble was weak and I think it's a better overall bet.

If we lynch Sotty today and she turns out NOT to be scum, then tomorrow will probably come down to you vs mith.

[Amrun]

What the fuck? That hammer was awful. I was counting on Llamarble's reaction to Sotty L-1.

Here's to hoping game over.

P-edit: fucking damnit. DH!!!!!!! Why!!!!

[Amrun]

I was really trying to feel out a Sotty/Llamarble scumteam.

Fuck this shit. Take my "reactions" and shove them up your ass because I am pissed.

I don't think Equinox is scum but I am not as sure of it as I once was. Clearly someone's fiddling with my reads.

[Amrun]

DH is still town.

He just pissed me off with a bad hammer. The timing was what was bad.

The hammer on its own is scummy but fuck it I am trusting my fucking read.

[Amrun]

Wait. Important: what does RegFan think about LlamaFluff?

[Amrun]

Will you ask him overnight? They've been scumpartners.

[Amrun]

The seed of a double Llama pairing got planted in my head right before the hammer by LlamaFluff himself.

Mith sees it too.

[Amrun]

Possibly. I still prefer Llamarble.

If Llamarble isn't scum I'm going to go sit in a fucking corner.

P-edit: yes, llamarble.

[Amrun]

Fluff - it could be you or mith, more likely you.

If Llamarble is NOT scum, my reads are fucked anyway.

[Amrun]

And my townread dropped in your estimation why?

Man.

I still feel like you are town. My head can come up with arguments but my gut STILL says town.

Shit.

Maybe Equinox/mith is a possibility. I'll do some re-assessing.

[Amrun]

I just realized we get another mislynch. Not as worried now.

[Amrun]

Um. That is against the rules.

My dad had a heart attack so I will only be around sporadically. That's just the way it is.

[Amrun]

No, DH saying his team got all town PMs is specifically against the rules and he might get modkilled for it when TBM sees it. VPB did it in AGM and got warned and the ruling was made official that it wasn't allowed.

That is an interesting find with Nicodemus, but I can't reconcile that with the townie reaction to his fake hammer.

[Amrun]

Me and MITH? Lol.

[Amrun]

What exactly rules out marble/equinox for you, mith?

[Amrun]

Well that is the reply that theory is worth, tbqh. I was trying to sell my soul to get mith lynched on day 2 - as well as to NOT get you lynched. Ingrate. *grunmble grumble*

Why does everyone expect. Novels from me when I am v/la?

[Amrun]

I'm not - and in this game, buddies and possible pairings do matter.

[Amrun]

Equinox: For most of day 2, mith sat around 3 votes. I tried hard to make it higher than that, even trying to trade votes with you, if you'll recall.

At this point, I feel like I can make town and scum cases for EVERYONE, literally everyone.

So I'm going to go with gut and fuck all the rest.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[Amrun]

DH, what a lame attack. I've blitzed you as scum before and I could do it again if I wanted to, but I'm not scum and therefore I'm far more interested in having my vote on scum. I could make a case for townfluff or scumfluff at this point, but I simply won't bother.

"Unless I am scum with Chris" from him is wifoming the fuck out of me, though.

[Amrun]

New Designers, remember?

[Amrun]

How?

[Amrun]

0%

[Amrun]

I'm not scum and it's unlikely Chris is, especially due to his daytalk slip that we discussed in previous days.

[Amrun]

P sure it is game over if we mislynch today. So uh. But I will not be voting for DH ever. Not so sure about Marble.

And yes, STILL THAT. It didn't go away.

[Amrun]

Mith: I replaced into an uncomfirmed spot on day 1; 1/3 of my scumbuddy was on his way to a lynch, and was lynched day 1. I basically was never suspected at all, and was most people's strongest townreads even through LyLo. When DH died, his last words were that I was the player he trusted most. Won that game, obviously, and got a scummy nomination after it. Trying not to toot my own horn, here, but you asked. It was easily my best game ever. I've had plenty of bad ones, but that one was good. Link in my wiki.

DH: I'm phone posting from work, so a case will have to wait. It is fairly safe to say that the best case on ChrisB involves his fencesitting on DGB and how he avoided the wagon. My point is that to make a case based on that ignores lots of other factors that point to ChrisB town, such as DGB's last-ditch attempt to wagon him, his new to MS status, and his daytalk slip. It's similar for most people, including you; for example, your Sotty hammer was terribad, but your reaction to your own "hammer" convinced me you are town.

[Amrun]

Fuck it, llamarble is town.

[Amrun]

Mith: I have a much better record as scum, it is true, as Sotty referenced earlier in game. I have never really had a bad game as scum, even the one I lost (in LyLo). My point in talking about New Designers was that DH has direct experience that I don't drop such obvious scumtells as he was attacking me for (voting on gut, for example). That's not to say I can't be caught as scum, but not for such dumb things. That's self-meta, which some people don't like, but that's what I was trying to say.

[Amrun]

UGH why does Fluff have to be so cavalier about this? My confidence level is dropping.

Equinox, if you were fluff's partner, why would he be MORE nervous? that makes no sense.

[Amrun]

No, I just can't read.

[Amrun]

Everyone forgot that my dad had a heart attack and I have to take responsibility for the family business. That's what's up. I posted it in all my games for a reason and right now I'm just riding it out until my games decrease. That is all I can do.

[Amrun]

Still stuck on that, is he?

It wasn't fake. He'll just say "but I think it was" until the cows come home.

What is the logic behind this proposed chain lynch?

[Amrun]

It doesn't leave me; it leaves mith.

Do you see me and ChrisB as a possibility? How much of one?

I need to do some re-reading myself.

[Amrun]

What happened to I can't be scum with anyone but DH, mith?

[Amrun]

If he's TOWN?

So you think Equinox/Llamarble is the scumteam?

I was about to post that I want to lynch one of Equinox/mith today, but Chris B's latest post is terrible. I can't get over the daytalk, so I won't lynch him and will have to settle for lynching his partner if he is actually scum.

I favor an Equi lynch over a mith lynch. Mith's thoughts are pretty similar to my own at this stage.

[Amrun]

Llamarble is town. Very town.

[Amrun]

The way his wagon built cut down his possible partners, we lynched the only one truly remaining, and some of his posts from yesterday all point to town.

What do YOU think of Llamarble, Equinox?

[Amrun]

Well, you're not TOTALLY ruled out, but how okay you were with his wagon suggests you are not scum with him, and if you two arte partners, I want to lynch you anyway.

[Amrun]

Yes, and as I stated, if you're his buddy, I DONT CARE BECAUSE I WANT TO LYNCH YOU.

[Amrun]

I'm nervous. my last LyLo was pretty bad, though I did have the right read and thus won.

I see no merit in rushing. Why not answer my questions?

[Amrun]

You want to rush your own lynch, Equinox?

[Amrun]

I still don't. Play against wincon, Equinox. You're not doing much to convince us that we are wrong.

Mith isn't taking strng stances either.

P-edit: No, it's against wincon either way.

[Amrun]

I have relayed everything my team ever thought about this game already. I doubt any of them have even read this far. The last I heard, Hoppster gave an off-handed guess that you were scum - reasoning in one of my replace-in posts, somewhere.

Are you asking me to make a towncase on myself? What a wifom-loaded question.

Frankly, though, my attacks and the timings of them have ruled me out as a pair with anyone but perhaps Chris B.

Mith: I DO think Llamarble is town, but I was simply acknowledging the possibility of Equinox/Llamarble since asked about it.

[Amrun]

Equinox-mith nigh confirmed now.

VOTE: Equinox

BOO HOO I DIDNT MAKE A HUGE TOWNCASE ON MYSELF

There are honestly no words to describe how little I care about this game anymore. Towncases on yourselves are dumb as shit and I don't know what you wanted besides "my attacks and the timing of my attacks," which is what I said. I came into the game, defended DH and attacked mith by launching a full-out wall warfare and defending DH when Everyone thouyght mith was town and DH was scum. That should have been enough right there and I feel like no one left is looking at things properly, probably because the two most compegent players are scum.

[Amrun]

If you wanted a meta case, why didn't you ask for that? I misunderstood.

I work hard not to have things like that I can point to, and quite frankly, the few small things I do as town or scum are not worth spilling for one game.

I never asked you to nmake a town case on yourself. I asked you to make a scum case on someone else, which you have STILL never done. The case on me is absolute shit and you haven't put any effort at all into it. And trust me - when I get the chance, I will be making a case on you now that it's obvious. Outside chance of Chris B-mith or Equi-ChrisB.

P-edit: thinking I'm scum with mith kind of confirms you as scum or functionally retarded. I think scum is a lot more likely.

[Amrun]

That was a little rude. Sorry. My life is a pile of shit right now. Someone robbed my business this weekend and we made no money and it's a mess that I'm taking out on mafia in various ways atm.

Seriously, though, thinking I am scum with mith is so dumb.

[Amrun]

Chris B, expain how and why I am scum with mith.

[Amrun]

FUCK THAT SHIT.

Fucking hell, I had you dead to rights when I replaced in, mith.

Your partner is equi, right? Or is it chris b?brilliant daytalk gambit if so.

[Amrun]

Pretty sure it is equi. If it's llamarble I pegged them both when I replaced in.

FUCK.

X.X

I'm sorry for not sticking to my guns more, everyone.

P-edit: DAMN IT ALL TO HELL

[Amrun]

Well, I don't know whether to be proud or to feel worse because I couldn't follow through.

Why didn't I get nk?

[Amrun]

3/4 scum wins... Wow.

Depressing that I played as town in two of them. My reads were great in this one and fairly good in the other, but both times, I failed in getting my suspects lynched.

Scum, why wasn't I nked?

[Amrun]

Poor Socio*

I unbookmarked this after he died and no one looked twice at mith.

I didn't want the stress.

Wisdom to accept the things I cannot change

DERP I MADE A HUMONGOUS FUCKING CASE ON MITH AND TRIED TO LYNCH HIM SO HARD BUT NO ONE WOULD LISTEN TO MY PERFECT READS AND I EVENTUALLY GAVE UP ON TRYING TO GET HIM LYNCHED BECAUSE NO ONE WOULD LISTEN.

It was pretty frustrating, especially seeing as I did the same thing for Llamarble and even got him to L-1.

But I talked myself out of my own perfect reads in the end.

It's nice to know I absolutely called the scum team on day 1 from the team qt, though. PERFECTLY.