Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Sevei]

/confirm

[Sevei]

Catching up; will post later today.

[Sevei]

I'm finally caught up. A quick explanation: 1) I didn't check the thread Sunday because I wasn't thinking about the game or the fact that it was the 15th; 2) I volunteered to do a favor for a relative on Monday and thought it would only take a couple of hours, and instead it took fifteen; 3) I didn't have a chance to sit down and read all nine pages until late tonight. However, now that I've caught up, I should be able to stay up. (However, it's almost 5am, so I'm keeping this short and sweet.)

Vote: Llamarble

Sotty's made most of the points I have on him already, but I wanted to add that I think there he went a little overboard early on and gave a lot of superfluous information about why he is town in this game, and that coupled with his early FoS list just seems like he's trying way too hard to appear town who is anxiously scumhunting.

He's also careful to label his vote on Klazam as being L-3 after the vote threshold is discussed in relation to Equinox thinking a hammer had happened. This reads as unnecessary caution.

DGB

: Spends 178 talking about Marble because she is pressed to do so, but avoids coming to any kind of actual conclusion about him, instead concluding that SP is still scum. Basically her "analysis" of Marble could be taken either way. (Marble doesn't talk about her, either--but I bet he will now.)

Also not buying that DGB is confused about the Llamas as she claims not once but twice. (Posts 176 and 178) She's not expressed this confusion before, when addressing Fluff.

So basically I see a connection there, but would prefer lynching Marble because a lot of what I see with DGB is based on a perceived connection.

[Sevei]

(Marble doesn't talk about [DGB], either--but I bet he will now.)

I'll quickread DGB now and then be off for most of the day.

DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

Marble, you make no mention of anything I said about you or DGB in 217, yet you feel the need to announce you are now going to look at DGB out of the blue? Why DGB at that point specifically? Because aside from my comments, there doesn't seem to be any reason for you to have done that at that particular point in time.

[Sevei]

@IPie: Yes, I am late getting started, which is why Sotty got to make a case on him first. As for the comment I made about Marble's L-3 announcement, I pointed it out because HIS pointing out an L-3 seemed like he was trying too hard to appear cautious town since there had just been a discussion about the voting threshold. Pointing out an L-2 wouldn't have stood out to me so much. It also wouldn't have stood out on a later day AFTER a bad hammer or near-miss with a fake-hammer or something.

My read on Marble has been solid since his very early posts; my read on DGB is more contingent on Marble's flip, which is why I would rather see him flip first. It isn't as clear-cut in reverse.

You say if I flip scum then you will be more concerned with DGB. What will your read on DGB when I flip town, or is your scum-read on her solely contingent on my alignment? Will you exonerate her when I flip town?

By the way, the post you quoted with DGB's reads (in which she puts me on the lurker list) also has Marble on the "Hybrid" list, which supports both your comment that DGB doesn't like to bus and my belief that if Marble flips scum, so will DGB. What do you think of Marble-DGB? Doesn't it bother you that they have avoided each other so far, except to say they think the other is town, and then only when prodded by someone else?

[Sevei]

@IPie: She thinks I'm scum (post 168).

How about we strike a deal. You help me in lynching DGB. It gives you a better read on Marble and me a better read on you. If she flips scum, we lynch from her list of town/null reads and if she's town we look at her wagon for the scum that's bound to jump on. We both benefit from her flip reads-wise, so what do you say?

I'm not opposed to this, but regardless of DGB's flip, I want to lynch Marble next. He hasn't responded to my comments or questions about/to him, which reeks of scum-avoidance.

I would rather wait to hammer until after DGB's V/LA; it's just seems more polite. In the meantime, we can talk about how scummy Marble is, though.

[Sevei]

@Sevei:
I have limited access right now but I think I actually did address your L - 3 thing. I pointed it out because I checked before voting and thought the information would be useful. I point out lynch threshold often. Your other point was about me "trying to look like scumhunting anxiously," which I found beneath response. What looks like scumhunting is often scumhunting. I find my time far more usefully spent scumhunting than letting myself be locked down by answering every little nitpick with an explanation from first principles. People realize I'm town a lot faster when I'm helping find scum anyway. You said I hadn't mentioned DGB, which I think was true but I have since read her. I don't like this wagon and would appreciate no hammer at least until after I've gone home (evening 22nd) and really thoroughly evaluated the game.

I wasn't concerned with the nitty-gritty details so much as I was the connection I pointed out between you and DGB. You only mentioned DGB after I pointed out you hadn't, yet there was no indication in any of your posting that you found an actual NEED to investigate her, which makes me believe that you wouldn't have done so if I hadn't made an issue of it.

When you did finally talk about her, you didn't acknowledge that anyone had prompted you, nor did you place your investigation in any sort of context. Why go to the trouble to "investigate" someone you haven't/don't think is scummy and then conclude they are town instead of just saying you haven't talked about them because you don't think they are scum in the first place? DGB did the same thing to you when prompted by Sotty, and came to the same conclusion, and since her return, hasn't said one thing about her read on me or my comments about the connection between the two of you, even after I had addressed it with you.

@Mith, Chris, and Llamafluff: Not stalling, just waiting. I wanted to see what DGB had to say in response to her wagon. I saw no reason to end a day while the lead wagon was on V/LA, especially when it's only D1 and there are other scum. My read on DGB was also somewhat contingent on my Marble-read, and I wanted to think about my options and discuss them with my team before proceeding.

Also, since Fluff is looking for meta, I can refer you to the last game I finished (Newbie 1056) when I had a similar read on two players, one of whom flipped scum on D1, and the other whom I tunneled into oblivion a couple of days later before he flipped town (and scum subsequently won the game the next day). I didn't want to make the same mistakes again with Marble/DGB. (And as for how talkative I am--I assume you're referring to my play in the LOTR mini? I didn't get really talkative until D3, if you remember. I don't tend to be a really an aggressive player on D1.)

As for hammering, I'm more than ready for that based on the comments DGB has (or moreso,

hasn't

) made since returning from V/LA.

Vote: DGB

[Sevei]

That's sort of an oversimplification of what I've said about Marble/DGB.

DGB had a scum read on me before her V/LA, and when she came back, didn't address that at all. She also didn't address what I said about her and Marble even though she was accusing SP of OMGUS voting her. She completely avoided what I said about the two of them at all. Marble also avoided what I said, and ONLY made a case on her after I said he would, but had no obvious reason for making a case on her aside from my comment. DGB did the SAME THING when Sotty asked her about Marble. I see this as being motivated by scum-intent. Why? A) They avoid bussing; B) when called on it, attempt to appear town by "investigating" a particular person; C) going through a whole song and dance to come up with a "Town" read on someone they've NEVER expressed suspicion of before when a simple "I think they're town or null" would suffice.

I also mentioned this:

Also not buying that DGB is confused about the Llamas as she claims not once but twice. (Posts 176 and 178) She's not expressed this confusion before, when addressing Fluff.

[Sevei]

Because her posting AFTER her V/LA gave me a more solid read on her.

[Sevei]

Not really. I've been scum in one game since I started playing and it didn't go well. Nacho busted me.

[Sevei]

Yep. I replaced in on D1, and I think my first post is the top of page nine. It was also my first game on site. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=15198

Most significant town games are Open 252 and 254, Mini-Theme 1119, Newbie 1056.

[Sevei]

I didn't hammer while DGB was on V/LA because I wanted to see how she responded to her wagon since she wasn't my top read. I also explained this on D1.

Also, I still think Marble is scum. If you actually LOOK at what I said about him and DGB on D1, I am not as concerned with the fact that they didn't mention each other as I am with the fact that they DID ISO/post about one another when pressured by others. THAT'S the problem. Why go to the trouble to make a long ISO/case about someone you have a town read on only because someone else asks you to do so or mentions that you haven't? They also both came up with a town read on one another when they did post.

Vote: Marble

Thor: I listed town games alongside that other link. You can look at them yourself. I haven't played with a whole lot of people in this game before.

[Sevei]

Thor: Here's a link to a game I was in with DH. He killed me for being too quiet, so you could direct your question to him if you like. http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=16353
What he said in game: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p2893971

Marble, you're still missing my point. (Mayhap on purpose?)

I understand responding to someone who asks you your opinion on another player. HOWEVER, I don't understand why, if you think someone is town, that response requires a comment about looking up their ISO, discussing their ISO/play, and then concluding that "Yep, she's town" RATHER than just saying "Because I think she's town." Going to that much trouble to justify a town read? That's pretty scummy.

DGB's response to Sotty about you was loaded with fence-sitting about you, which you yourself just pointed out. She hadn't had problems pointing out anything she saw that was scummy about other people WITHOUT BEING ASKED, so why did she have to be asked about you before seeing not one but several scummy things about your play? She only commented on you because she was forced to do so in the first place, and somehow despite seeing several scummy things about you was still only able to come to a very inconclusive thesis about your alignment, and despite pointing out how you were pretty scummy, tried to redirect the conversation to another player in the SAME POST. Ergo, you're her scumbuddy.

[Sevei]

@Marble: Running away? I spent the weekend with family doing weekend/holiday things, like a lot of other people did. I started catching up about twenty minutes ago. Your continued use of loaded/prejudicial language when referring to me is a bit much, though, don't you think? (And if anyone is curious, just read his posts about me; they're very colorful.)

@DH: Equinox answered this, but just out of curiosity, did you read/analyze my whole ISO in from that game in four minutes?

@Equiniox: I don't have a lack of curiosity. I just think Marble is scum, and I have since I started reading the thread for the first time. I also have opinions on everyone else, but I haven't shared them because I am a) not as confident about some of them and b) not interested in having my reads manipulated by scum. If I am right about the DGB/Marble pair, then I would say the third person would be someone avoiding my wagon and probably drawing attention away from it. DH stands out at the moment based on his "four-minute" ISO analysis from my linked scum game; I'm not sure what he's getting at in the most recent posts about me--it sort of looks like he's trying overly hard to set up a vote for me in the future or to justify why he might avoid voting for me at all.

If I'm incorrect about Marble, then I would still look at DH next, and the current third on my list is either Fluff or IPie.

I don't mind getting lynched today; with four people on my wagon atm it will definitely help narrow down suspects for tomorrow. The question, of course, will be if I'm right about Marble or not. One of his "points" about me is basically a regurgitation of my argument about him and DGB (i.e., his weak, WEAK connection between me and Klazam), and I'm still quite confident that he is scum, but if he isn't, I can see smart scum manipulating the situation to make him another mislynch.

Just a friendly reminder that, as a town, if we can narrow down possible scum to 5 or less people, we win.

Mislynching me will definitely help narrow it down as it's HIGHLY doubtful all four of you currently voting for me are town. Should make for fun times tomorrow.

[Sevei]

Equinox: Might of Mordor, LOTR mini-theme. It took me a while to find it, but it's the one time I remember saying something about it b/c MoI-scum (aka MasterSpy hydra) was in my face about it (mainly because he was my top scum read). That game was intense. Way, way, WAY too intense. http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p2811263

[Sevei]

Narrowing it down to four is easy: one of these is definitely scum: IPie, Thor, Marble, Equinox.

[Sevei]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

[Sevei]

Just because you have a read on someone doesn't mean you're right, so 100% isn't a real probability, it's just your opinion. You're wrong about your read on me, so I don't have a lot of faith in your reads on the others on my wagon.

[Sevei]

Point taken, but the reasons being given for me being scum aren't/weren't that I was pathetically lurking. I am usually a slow-starter in games, especially with people I haven't played with before, and other than that I've had some other things going on that I didn't expect to be going on when I signed up.

[Sevei]

Boy, they can't get off my wagon fast enough, can they?

I still think the odds that none of those four is scum are pretty slim. For anyone who isn't Marble, why is he town? Because I'm not seeing it.

[Sevei]

Sorry, I've had a lot of things happen at once, but I think it's under control again and I should be caught up by tomorrow afternoon.