Mini 1150 - There Goes the Neighborhood - Game Over

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Catchup comes later (tomorrow)

[LlamaFluff]

Starting a bit of a read, and im floored that no one wanted to lynch nacho early for the claim. You ALWAYS ALWAYS lynch non-town claims, very simple fact of the game. Survivor is no exception, as it is an inherantly anti-town role. They do not want to actually scumhunt, if they claim they remove themselves from the PR pool for scum, if they are in an endgame situation they will automatically side with scum essentially giving scum an extra player. Thats only if its a true claim, I have actually won a game as scum with a survivor claim, not unheard of in the least bit.

Lucky for us there are a few really scummy reactions to that claim. Page three and I am already happy with a lynch of Nacho or Doom. I would put down some money on one of them is scum (exactly one, not two). AV is another great bet on scum (also not with Doom), AV has the added bonus of being scummy on other levels too, consider him my vote for early game.

Sea is town for that response, Krypt and TS get a couple of brownie points.

Jedi just sorta ignores the elephant in the room for a bad wagon vote. Note I do love RVS wagoning, but this is a bad vote, especially the way he is already making excuses for it. And wow he gets worse in 72 while TS picks up second town read.

Modfy early read to one of doom/JJ, maybe both but doubtful

I have no reason to not be voting someone at this point and since Krypt is at L-1, I'm going to have to go with my #2 suspect. Its rather early for someone to be put at L-1 methinks and NS hasn't really added anything new to the discussion, rather just a rehash of what everyone else has been saying.

Check out this one by doombunny voting his second suspect for putting his first suspect at L-1. Makes me think he is lying about his reads as he is attacking someone for voting what he says is his strongest scum read. Even if he is trying to make a bussing accusation, Krypt would need to flip scum first.

JJ just magically turns his "pressure" vote into a "real" vote in 83. Sneaky sneaky. Gettinga gut town read on NS too at this point.

Four pages in

One of JJ/Doom are scum, other is town
AV is scummy
Nacho should have been run up and I would be happy lynching

Sea is town (gives back a few points is JJ is scum)
TS is town
Krypt is prob town
NS is gut town

No one else is doing enough to have me remember who they are

[LlamaFluff]

AV continues to look horribad, just putzing along making comments instead of being useful. People also continue to look way to deep into NS putting someone at L-1. That is not as big of a tell as people are making it out, infact I would say its a very slight town tell to do so, since you would be expected to take some flack for it. Pack joins the ranks of the prob-towns too while AV makes more *twitch* posts.

At page 7 its a very odd vote count with respect to JJ. I really like most of the wagon, but the early votes are the ones that im really unhappy with.

Anyways, just going to rip through the rest of this.

Wicked confirms that NS was town
JJ continues to conflict me beyond reason at this point. My read of him keeps changing due to occasional town posts like 243
TS gets even more town
Power wagon is crawling with scum (over/under at 2.5)

Town - Sea, TS, Wicked, Krypt, +-Set, Power
Scum - Doom, AV, +- JJ, Quar, Nacho

[LlamaFluff]

Side point #1 - My lifespan in this game will likely be tied directly to what alignment my neighbors are. When I flip it will be obvious.

When I saw the claim, this is 100% the type of post I expected scum to make, which is why im fine with a death of Doom or AV since they hit the tell up and down the board. AV gets the spot over Doom due to one certain thing, tomorrow I will know enough to revisit it though.

I can personally go along with this up to a point. It's not an all-access pass to being scummy so it depends how the rest of the game pans out. If you're playing pro-town I won't want to see you lynched anyway.

Scum by far are happier with Nacho-survivor living then town is, as if the game hits lylo, all scum claim and nacho wins with them. No matter what Nacho says, he will side with scum if it gets close to an endgame, which is why you always lynch the claimed survivor. Yes I know im not voting him, but there is one tiny thing.

Lol I noticed that too Seacore but thought you should get the first bite.

This rings bells. AV is claiming that he saw what he thought was a tell, but decided not to respond to it beacuse it occured in something directed at another person. This was not a "Sea posted first" scenario, but AV deciding not to comment on something he saw as scummy, just doing a quick "I agree" when its pointed out.

He continues to argue with Krypt while competely ignoring everything else that was going on, including the L-1 vote from NS that he just kinda says "could be a scum gambit"

From my slapdash count, I think that's NS at L-2.

Interesting fact: Kryp, Jedo and NS have all been at L-2 at some point since the last vote count.

IIoA anyone? Cool fact that this point is that even though JJ and NS have reached L-2, AV has really avoided commenting on either of them. He said he thinks bandwagoning is a town tell (bull, its a playstyle tell and anyone who like it will tell you that) and that NS could be scum (how about a strong stance?) Nothing much else going on, although he is attacking people who are defending Krypt a bit (not scum with Quar).

Is Jedo's lurking worse than Nacho's? Are either of them scummier than NS?

Lol deflection from JJ. This is an interesting post. Apparently NS, who he has mentioned in essentially only one line is his second suspect. Nacho also is somehow scummier then JJ? Lots of odd things going on here, as he suddenly seems overly interested in people being quiet.

I'll have a thorough reread tonight or tomorrow of Jedo/NS/Seacore and see what pings.

............

AV had been subtely defending JJ and not so subtely defending Sea so far, what really made this change? Apart from the obvious that this is right where the Krypt wagon fell apart. Anyone want to make a bet on who is taking flack right at this point too?

RE: Seacore's self vote - I'm undecided on the validity of self-voting (and other casual RVS behaviour) as a scumtell. My instinct bristles against it; but when I actually consider what a self vote is and what it does, it spirals into a WIFOM balancing act of purposefully bringing attention to oneself, negating a voting trail or early connections, and simply being cavalier. That's why I asked the question, to see what response he gave. I don't think his joking response was particularly scummy (like if he'd tried to wriggle out of the accusation/changed his vote immediately for exa)mple

Wow, what a turnaround on Sea. AV spent a whole lot of the early game buddying to him, and out of nowhere starts the attack? This just really feels out of place especially as most of his points are coming from the early game where he appeared to think that Sea was actually town.

I dont like AV.

He seems to be way to one track minded here over Krypt, while taking odd stances on other players. For most of the game, he just actively avoided the elephants in the room (NS L-1 vote, JJ wagon) while making some odd stances on a few topics (timetable on Sea turn, interest in lurkers). Now he is back to Krypt that he seems to think there might be momentum in that area. Mostly though I really really dislike his stance on NS and JJ. If AV is scum, JJ has a very good chance to be scum, and NS then becomes town like he already is.

Vote AV

I would vote JJ or Quar at deadline, but thats it. Both those wagons are basically all my town reads.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote JJ

Deadline and such. Assuming JJ flips scum, AV better be deadified tonight.

[LlamaFluff]

Check out this one by doombunny voting his second suspect for putting his first suspect at L-1. Makes me think he is lying about his reads as he is attacking someone for voting what he says is his strongest scum read. Even if he is trying to make a bussing accusation, Krypt would need to flip scum first.

What bussing accusation? At that point, I thought it was way too early to put ANYONE at L-1, regardless of whether or not I think they're scum.

Your logic is as follows

1) Krypt is my #1 scum read
2) NS is my #2 scum read
3) As my Krypt is at L-1 by NS, I vote NS

That means by your own logic, that NS is bussing Krypt. Why is it too early to put a top scum read at L-1? What is the 'right' time? No such thing as too early if the only reason you voted NS over Krypt was that Krypt was at L-1. I cant see the logic is laying into someone for putting who you are "so sure" is scum near a lynch, so it essentially needs to be a bussing read since you just before had expressed will to see a dead Krypt.

Also, The "If Jedo is town then Doom must be scum and vice versa" seems off to me. Almost as if he's trying to set up lynches ("Oh, so Doom flipped town? DIE JEDO DIE!")

Both of you (and AV) are scummy beyond reason for early game stuff. I will be entirely shocked if all of you are town in this game. I would nearly be willing to already bet the game on that already.

Also, can you explain your AV and DB scumreads please?

DB is mildly explained to Sea already as there is a huge conditional attached that I can work out tonight without much of a problem. If that conditional wasnt there I would have voted DB over AV, the read is that strong, but the holdup is that obvious as well.

[LlamaFluff]

I can personally go along with this up to a point. It's not an all-access pass to being scummy so it depends how the rest of the game pans out. If you're playing pro-town I won't want to see you lynched anyway.

Scum by far are happier with Nacho-survivor living then town is, as if the game hits lylo, all scum claim and nacho wins with them. No matter what Nacho says, he will side with scum if it gets close to an endgame, which is why you always lynch the claimed survivor. Yes I know im not voting him, but there is one tiny thing.

Wow, then the whole game must be full of scum because, y'know, no one at all voted Nacho because of his claim. This is a bullshit reason to give the impression that you've got a case.

Beleive me I read the game thinking "what the hell is wrong with these people" since its very basic theory to kill any non-town claim instantly. A few people (such as yourself) reacted far worse then anyone else, especially as you appeared to note all the reasons for lynching the player instantly before deciding to vote elsewhere.

Lol I noticed that too Seacore but thought you should get the first bite.

This rings bells. AV is claiming that he saw what he thought was a tell, but decided not to respond to it beacuse it occured in something directed at another person. This was not a "Sea posted first" scenario, but AV deciding not to comment on something he saw as scummy, just doing a quick "I agree" when its pointed out.

Let's quote that post in full, shall we?

^Lol I noticed that too Seacore but thought you should get the first bite.

Kryp, why is the second vote the one to start the wagon?
Why is the third vote the official wagon vote?
Did you realise Seacore himself was the second vote?

Hardly me not commenting on something I saw as scummy and then doing a "quick I agree" post, eh? What you've done is blatantly misrep me by removing over half the post, the half that was in fact me COMMENTING on the post that I saw as scummy. MAJOR LlamaScum points for that.

The fact is you DIDNT comment on it at first. What possible reason exists for not commenting on a post until someone else gets the chance to. Also how is anything you quoted scumhunting and not theory discussion?

He continues to argue with Krypt while competely ignoring everything else that was going on, including the L-1 vote from NS that he just kinda says "could be a scum gambit"

From my slapdash count, I think that's NS at L-2.

Interesting fact: Kryp, Jedo and NS have all been at L-2 at some point since the last vote count.

IIoA anyone? Cool fact that this point is that even though JJ and NS have reached L-2, AV has really avoided commenting on either of them. He said he thinks bandwagoning is a town tell (bull, its a playstyle tell and anyone who like it will tell you that) and that NS could be scum (how about a strong stance?) Nothing much else going on, although he is attacking people who are defending Krypt a bit (not scum with Quar).

I admit I was tunnelling on Kryptinen but that's because it took me so long to get an answer to my questions. I'm not going to drop my questions when they've not been answered.

That is not an answer to my point. Are you incapable of asking more than one person a question at once? Obviously you read the game enough to know what JJ and NS did, why would commenting on it detract your case on Krypt (which is your fear here?).

I'll have a thorough reread tonight or tomorrow of Jedo/NS/Seacore and see what pings.

............

AV had been subtely defending JJ and not so subtely defending Sea so far, what really made this change? Apart from the obvious that this is right where the Krypt wagon fell apart. Anyone want to make a bet on who is taking flack right at this point too?

Nacho's post made me consider these three, and I was trying to get out of tunnel mode.

This post just horribly horribly makes me think its setting up for a wagon. You NEVER mentioned JJ or Sea in a negative light the entire game, and actually seemed convinced that they were town, then a single post from someone who in all honesty should have been dead by page three and/or ignored throughout the whole game changes your viewpoint?

What in there made you want to reread Sea too? I see him mentioned offhand as a jokinglyish scummy thing, making me think you more just read through it and saw that assuming it had something to do with him being scum. This is just really setting up for a sheep on any of the three, and comes at a convient time. Krypt had just had his wagon fall apart, JJ wagon was taking off, people were still giving NS shit. Opportunistic to the max, timing is all wrong here.

You tunneled the entire first part of the game on the VI/newbie, when that wagon falls apart, you follow the last person to make a big post and start sheeping along with the games top scum reads while lot looking anywhere else. power gets ran up? You are one of the first ones there to catch that wagon, everything points more to scum being opportunistic to town actually scumhunting.

@Quar - Claim.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama-Why did you ask for a claim from Quar when he was only at L-2? Why didn't you ask for a claim from Jedo since at the time, he had the same amount of votes?

Because you are counting wrong.

I would rather a JJ lynch by far.

[LlamaFluff]

Upon looking back at the votecount, I forgot that Set was formerly on Jedo which accounts for why my counting was off. All that does is change the last question to: Why not ask for a claim from Jedo when he was at L-2 (When he asked from Quar)

I dont think I have posted with JJ being at anything more than L-3 (which is what he was at then). Plus momentum is saying Quar is the one that is going to be lynched, which is a minor town tell in its own mertis, so calling for the JJ claim will likely result in more pressure on Quar after a refusal from JJ due to variance in votecounts. Which is a bad thing given my reads.

I will agree with you that the Seatel vote on Quar was horri-bad.

Why is Quar scum? This is an open question to anyone except Packbat. I cant remember anyone else providing a case on him, just sort of jumping the wagon. If I had to make a bet at this point, Quar is town, and there are probably two scum on his wagon.

[LlamaFluff]

Ah ok, most of your case is OMGUS there AV.

Also Quar is almost for sure town as per the vanilla claim rule. Its a not so secret tell of mine that has an amazingly accurate rate of calling vanilla claims accurately in situations where someone is up against deadline. I would give someone around 8:1 odds of Quar being town here since he has hit all the major points of it but one.

Basically it boils down to vanilla claims are not conducive to scum survival, which is what they would want in this scenario. A vanilla claim usually comes right before more votes, as few people ever see it as a town tell so there goes that counterarguement I can feel coming. On top of no survival, vanilla claims arent going to out any town powers, all the more reason that they usually come from town, this rules is most accurate in fhe first day one a game.

Go read past games and look at who got lynched day one and what they claimed. Look at the porportion of scum who claimed VT and something else (especially in closed games).

Lynch JJ here, Quar is town.

[LlamaFluff]

Why do you point out posts you don't feel strongly about?

What do you mean by this? Just want me to quote the parts of the case from AV that are "you are attacking me"?

I don't know what to think about vanilla claim rule, it seems like a new way to create WIFOMF. People should still be judged by their overall play, not just one thing.

Call it experience of three years of seeing how people claim. I have been able to use it with really high accuracy, much higher then just odds of town/scum in the game. This is one of those situations where a VT claim is essentially an "I give up" line, meaning the only way Quar is scum is if somehow scum are going to reap massive benifits from his lynch, which I dont believe for a second seeing how the wagon on him just kind of oozed over there.

I forget who said "the entire PR wagon just shifted to Quar", but its exactly what happened, and yet another reason why he is town. I will be stunned if Quar is scum in this game, would probably be one of the most unexpected flips in the last few months of playing.

[LlamaFluff]

Pack/Twisted/Krypt has at least one scum in it from that BS wagon on NS in the early game. More likely then not Pack/Twisted is where the scum is with the other one being town, since this exchange is not scum-scum.

Talked with Sea overnight, both kinda came to the same read that AV is more of a twat/VI player and not scum in this case who really needs to listen to others more.

Want to do rereads, but probably going to vote JJ or Doom. I cant see both of them being town in this game, and the one thing I was expecting to come up didnt come up in Dooms favor.

For wicked kill, its just speculation at this point, but I would guess it was NS playing to his town meta and he was obviously town due to early game play either way, then Wicked looked town.

Have a final in two hours, so I will probably not get my reading done until tomorrow if you want a sober post.

[LlamaFluff]

For wicked kill, its just speculation at this point, but I would guess it was NS playing to his town meta and he was obviously town due to early game play either way, then Wicked looked town.

or maybe because of his reads?
Scum can't let anyone live who suspects them. townie looking players come second-place to them

Scum make the *best* kill for them. Not necessarily who is attacking them, or is town, or anything like that. Just finished a game as scum where I intentionally killed the player that was not the mason who suspected me at night because it was the best move in that position.

Both of you are ignoring other things. What does the flip from Quar due to your reads of other top suspects? What does the flip of NS due when you look at the wagon that formed on him? Nothing is wrong with NK speculation, but if you blindy follow it scum will just rip you apart.

Almost sure its one of Pack/Twisted at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

and didn't you say i was obvtown yesterday?

Im allowed to change reads when more information comes out.

[LlamaFluff]

the new info being wicked was town?

that doesn't even incriminate me. He had me as his 2nd highest town read

Ive killed people who thought I was town. If you refuses to look at all options you are going to hurt your scumplay greatly.

why would a wicked town flip even make me appear scum? That's hardly sufficient evidence for a full U-turn

Did I vote you? No. With the flip confirming my read though, it makes almost for sure that one of the NS wagoners is scum, especially given the weak reasonings behind the wagon. I will be shocked if that wagon was all town.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Jedo

@Doom - I really am not interested in a lynch of TS or Pack today, but its something that needs to be pointed out since its a key votecount where we now know a couple alignments. Assuming standard 3 scum, I would put a big bet against that being an all town wagon.

[LlamaFluff]

@PR - What is your role called, exactly?

[LlamaFluff]

If I am not vanilla my role is formatted the exact same way as powers is. Lets not lynch him now.

Also I played in a game like this a couple years ago, and power roles could only target neighbors.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm thinking as scum you wouldn't push Quar because you would

know

he was a mislynch and would probably want to stay off the wagon; not pushing him meant you didn't have to accompany any suspicions with a vote. Otherwise, please explain why you didn't have a problem with Quar's vote?

He was town, I rarely have problems with what someone I have a town read is doing more then enough just to nudge them back in line, this includes votes. I think only time I will snap at a town read is when they are actively damaging the game, which is rare. My ability to catch scum seems to be going out with the site meta changing again, but its bringing in an era of me being deadly accurate with my strong town reads, and Quar was a really strong town read.

Also I dont mean to be rude or anything, but I think its just something about the way you continually interact with people who put pressure on you that really grates on me for some reason. Might be that you appear to assume anyone who doesnt think highly of you is scum and the response to anyone like that just really bugs me on both playstyle and game flow style. Dunno though. Maybe you are Poro V2

@Grey - Can we make a no rage posting agreement?

[LlamaFluff]

Why go to Jedo today when you preferred Seacore yesterday? What changed?

I feel like I've made the answer to this pretty clear. Yesterday I was happy with Jedo or sea but there was no momentum to jedo's wagon. Today thats where the momentum is, plus I'd like to see how far Seacore will go with the bus.

You do realize most of that momentum died when you moved your vote to seacore at the last minute correct?

[LlamaFluff]

Llama expressed both were town and is suspicious of half this wagon which makes him inexplicable. Since he's better than that.

JJ wagon behaved exactly as I would expect a scum wagon to behave, grows a bit, but then stalls out before deadline and most of it shifts to the mislynch wagon. Especially since Quar hit like the single biggest VT tell (again, no one really understands how scary accurate that tell is).

While I may not be in love with the members of the current wagon, I want to see what comes of pressure. Also I still have a gut sea-town read, only other wagons im really that interested in right now are Pack, Doom and Set. Those three continue to bug me a little.

Why go to Jedo today when you preferred Seacore yesterday? What changed?

I feel like I've made the answer to this pretty clear. Yesterday I was happy with Jedo or sea but there was no momentum to jedo's wagon. Today thats where the momentum is, plus I'd like to see how far Seacore will go with the bus.

You do realize most of that momentum died when you moved your vote to seacore at the last minute correct?

What momentum? It had been stagnant for days.

You unvoted when he was at L-2

[LlamaFluff]

Llama expressed both were town and is suspicious of half this wagon which makes him inexplicable. Since he's better than that.

JJ wagon behaved exactly as I would expect a scum wagon to behave, grows a bit, but then stalls out before deadline and most of it shifts to the mislynch wagon. Especially since Quar hit like the single biggest VT tell (again, no one really understands how scary accurate that tell is).

While I may not be in love with the members of the current wagon, I want to see what comes of pressure. Also I still have a gut sea-town read, only other wagons im really that interested in right now are Pack, Doom and Set. Those three continue to bug me a little.

You're voting with two of your three scumreads when you said this yesterday?

Im pretty sure I was calling Sea town yesterday for reasons that I told nacho.
Set is more of a wildcard though, I can easily see him flipping scum or town at this point. The wagon formation yesterday is enough to justfiy at least parking my vote there until I get a good chunck of time to read up.

And what happened to the Vox? He just dissipate? I don't see anything making him all that much more town than yesterday.

I think I just really dislike his posting style more then anything else and am trying to see if its me being bias.

[LlamaFluff]

@Grey - Im just conflicted on AV, even with what I put up on him. A few times though, I have caught myself pushing hard cases on someone just because they are annoying me, its why I tend to be successful as scum, I can BS cases on people easily. I can at least throw a little wieght around though on him still.

unvote
Vote AV

Power case. Now.

I would be willing to wagon Set for the sake of getting the game going in a good direction.

[LlamaFluff]

Why was it there if that didn't make the game go in good direction? What is the reason AV is now a better direction?

It was a good direction, got a small wagon formed and had a lot of action when you replaced in. That wagon is tapped out now and its information to use at a later point whether you are scum or town. Bandwagons on people you have town reads on are just as useful as wagons on people who flip scum, if not more useful.

What do you think of Setael, Packbat, and Seacore? If I'm town and your town you must know that there is a reasonably low chance that all three of them are town, right? Who isn't town in that pack?

I would bet on Set/Pack, although I lean Set by a little at this point despite Pack fullfilling a few of my other groupings where scum most exist, I could see something like Set+AV+Pack/TS here as a team.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually had a scum read until you replaced as I already said a few times.

Also scumday... hard to believe three years.

[LlamaFluff]

I'll circle back to Llama (especially since this seacore wagon is suddenly making me all sorts of nervous) but there's plenty of people who need much more death than Llama.

The reason I have a problem lynching Sea is because of our QT. He seemed to encorage me to back down off of AV, and unless its a Sea-AV team, I really cant see scum trying to chase me off a mislynch like that. Just doesnt work well unless we have a scum flip from AV to me.

@AV - Placeholder + your vote was in the wrong spot. As I said, I played a setup exactly like this in mechanics a couple years back, town could only target their neighbors. Also as I said, if I am not vanilla, my role PM is structured in an identical format to his.

[LlamaFluff]

@Grey - I just am a little stuck in a circle right now, I actually can completely see Sea-Set pairing at this point given the convo that I had with Sea last night. This is especially true if you are town. At the same time though, I just see zero motivation for Sea-scum to do what he did if AV is town, I mean, why argue someone who is stubborn on a scum read off them if you are scum and they are town? If its really Sea-Set-AV im going to laugh over it.

I could get behind a Set lynch, but want to think a second longer on Sea first.

unvote
Vote Set

[LlamaFluff]

I actually can completely see Sea-Set pairing at this point given the convo that I had with Sea last night.

Why is this just now being mentioned? Please tell us about it.

Its not strong, thats why. Was just a JJ over Set push, which I completely agreed with at the time given how good of partners they looked like there. The connection between Sea and AV is far far stronger, as Sea actually was metaing him as town, and thats why I really cant see Sea as scum if AV is town. Why would you ever meta defend town against a player who you know is fairly stubborn as scum when I start showing a few signs of second guessing myself? Basic answer is you would not.

[LlamaFluff]

@TS - Why did you vote JJ yesterday? Why not today?

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote Packbat

[LlamaFluff]

Llama you're positive he's town? Because he looks a lot like obvscum to me.

Of course not. I just dont think he is scum unless AV is scum. If Sea flips scum I would almost be willing to insta-lynch AV the next day given that I see zero way that Sea behaved the way he did as scum if AV is actually town. How often do you see scum meta defend an actual townie from one of the players that normally forces action in a game in private such that no one else notices?

I could live with lynches of AV, Set or Pack right now, with TS and Sea being acceptable, but not quite optimal, everyone else is probably not scum. I think I need to reread Sea over the next few days and try to get past my predisposition about him being town given the way he reacted to the Nacho claim which is why I REALLY fricken hate neutral roles, and think they should be insta lynched with fire. Thats another whole story though. I just dont have bearings in this game to be quite frank, and need to get some more unexpected flip to get anywhere.

I still say at least one scum is going to be in Pack/TS/Krypt though (not Pack-TS though, a scum flip from one 100% clears the other to such extent that I would bet anything on it), I cant for the life of me see this game where all three flip town. The fallout from the JJ wagon depends on Greys alignment. If Grey is scum, at least one of them are town, if Grey is town, I would not be shocked to see all town, but again Set orchistrated that... hmmph. I just keep chasing my tail here and really need to just rip up my reads and start again.

Trusting Grey

unvote

Going to think.

[LlamaFluff]

Nacho. It's scum play 102.
Scum pull shit like that all the time. They vote for a mislynch but FOS their buddies so later they can say "look, I thought he was scummy all along"
They list three "scum reads" one of which is their buddy, but they build a weaker case on them.
Basically they're all forms of distancing in which they avoiding actually bussing, but still establish 'suspicion'

Thats scum 102 though. People who do well as scum have already taken scum play 201 which shows that 102 is just theory that when applied usually ends in losses. Also diddin is borderline VI. There are only a few situations where the Vote town FoS buddy works well for scum.

[LlamaFluff]

How often do you see scum meta defend an actual townie from one of the players that normally forces action in a game in private such that no one else notices?

Defending a townie is a valid scum strategy. Standing up to one towny player can a) buy scum town cred, b) take a townie with a dead scum and c) buy scum an ally. I see no reason why this would be different for meta reasons.

Yes but this is not who good scum defends town, its far more indepth then that. My basic tactic when defending town hard is either when its manditory because of my meta, which is very unusal since even my tells such as the VT one I applied earlier I keep the details of close enough to my chest. Now the biggest reason is looking down the road a day or two. If townie A is getting flack from someone who you think you can get mislynched on day three/four, then you want to defend townie A with the logic of the actually would be able to buy you a vote on the attacker later down the line. Its a very complex thing really that you are oversimpifying here. Also it works like a charm from past experiences.

Cool thing here - If TS is scum, I would put a big bet on BOTH Pack and Grey being town. No way TS kills wicked if grey is scum and wicked (read as town to most) has a strong town read on him.

Vote TS

Im going to stop beating around the bush, time to push this wagon home hard.

[LlamaFluff]

Okay yeah, later on today. Im asking someone something first so I know if I can say it or not.

[LlamaFluff]

Unvote
Vote Set

cant/wont say it, but dear god the set wagon compared to the sea wagon? Thats a no brainer by who is voting even if I didnt know who they were on.

[LlamaFluff]

Unvote
Vote AV

Content to come back to a Set deadline lynch, but I have been talking this out and Set lynch doesnt do that much for my other reads. AV is more of an info goldmine (like krypt/doom/pack are)

[LlamaFluff]

Okay so is the info going to be 'he's the most likely player according to your reads to be scum, so the scumteam will be down a member?;

Seriously Llama, wtf?

He is in a top three suspect for me no second thought and has been for just about the entire game, where he is in the top three is more fluid. What makes him different though compared to someone like Set is that AV is actually tied to a whole lot of pairings in my mind, as opposed to Set who really isnt apart of big wagons. Getting flips on the bigger wagons is usually a very good way to start getting the alignment of everyone else on the wagons.

I would have loved to see a vigged AV last night, he alignment really sheds light on quite a few middling reads. Also I would be willing to say town-AV means town-Sea

[LlamaFluff]

Theory says that Power and Set are not both town.

Obviously I prefer a Set lynch to a power lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

Why can they not both be town?

Granted, I'm suspicious of both and think that Set is scum, but I'd like to know why that can't be both town from your POV?

Really? I know you can figure this one out on your own, but nothing meshes here at all. Their roles are orginized differently first, but the bigger one is what they actually are. Doctor + Watcher is a powerful combination because they just have to target eachother and scum cant kill the doctor without being caught. Any role combination that immediately becomes unbreakable unless scum sacrafices themselves is too strong, LMP knows this, and wouldnt have it in his game.

[LlamaFluff]

Look, there is zero. ZERO chance of both Set and Power being town, I would not be shocked if one of them was scum telling the truth about their role, but they cant both be town.

That said Doom wagon is completely valid, and continually increases in validity as the game goes on.

@mod

- Im going to be V/LA from late on the 18th through sometime in night. Will be back before daybreak though

Vote Set

[LlamaFluff]

I can see Llama's point, though it would be a nonissue if Power hadn't had to claim. Possibly the scum have a PR that keeps a watcher from seeing them so that they could still kill me without repercussion. Maybe I'm wrong to believe Power's claim, but I don't buy into AV's reasoning at all. It makes no sense to me that he'd claim the way he did if he were scum.

At what point did you realize that the pairing makes no sense

unvote

No longer ready for this yet.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Set

Made up my mind

[LlamaFluff]

@Reg - Not claiming, yet my role is 100% confirmable. Glass for whatever reason decided to claim it pregame, which I completely disagree with having done, but can see the justification for it. My quote on my lifespan likely being tied to the longevity of myself comes from what my role is, again quite obvious upon my death, but yes im not VT, and my role is formatted exactly as Powers was.

Anyway, Ice is right that he is likely town given the insistance of Set to lynch JJ over Quar on the first day, especially since Set flipped goon, odds are little over 50-50 that all other scum are non-goon. Good rarely busses non-goon if possible, its simply bad play.

Now, this means (by law of three) that one of Sea and TS are scum. As I already said, the defense of AV by Sea means Sea is likely town unless AV is scum, but three scum + vig + neutral? yeah right. At this point nacho is scum or there are only two scum. Seriously, im almost to thinking nacho leans scum if it wasnt for one thing he said, but even then his partner is limited quite a bit.

The flip just paints Sea as prob-town to me, votecounts point away from TS as scum however, given how close the TS and Set votes fell most of the time. I do find this one cool though

Jedo the Jedi (3) - Packbat

, Twistedspoon,

Setael

kryptinen (2) -

Jedo the Jedi

, Glass
Doombunny9 (1) -

Wickedestjr

Powerrox93 (6) - Nachomamma8, Seacore, AurorusVox, Doombunny9, kryptinen, Quaroath
Nachomamma8 (1) -

Powerrox93

Notice a distinct lack of green on the power wagon? I sure do.

If you call nacho non-scum and Sea town, it means the "kill them" area is AV, doom and krypt. At LEAST one of those three is going to be scum, since if nacho is neutral, then TS is probably town, as really a half the game wagon on town is ALL town? Nah. Those same three suddenly pop up on the Quar wagon as well.

Vote AV

Explaination more tomorrow, but check out how long he danced around the Set vote while trying to see if he could tip momentum in the direction of Sea.

[LlamaFluff]

Also...

@Grey and AV - What did wicked talk about N1?

[LlamaFluff]

I also forgot AV was on V/LA so that lessens some of the points against him that I raised. Still dislike that his main justification for pushing Sea over Set was that Sea was closer to a lynch, I think this ends up as simple as AV and Krypt are opposite alignments, since both town means its something wierd like a doom-TS pairing, which I guess I can see... but dont like a whole lot.

@Reg - I keep going back and forth on TS, and am trying to get to the bottom of something that really is bugging me here about it before I push hard on it, since I was pretty convinced of TS scum until that point where I said I needed to ask something and got a response.

Still not going to claim. I feel Glass handled my role completely wrong, although as I said I could see justification for doing so, and through his actions, me living longer point more at a nieghbor of mine being scum. The claim from power sort of offset this though, and wicked was a fairly obvious N1 kill. I do consider it a very minor tell for Sea and Nacho that I am alive though.

[LlamaFluff]

Missed one

@Reg - Law of three is a theory that when scum names three suspects, one of them is always scum. This is true more often then odds for one of three random players being scum, but not infallable by any means. Simply another slight tell type thing.

[LlamaFluff]

@Nacho - There is a question i NEED to ask you tonight. Remind me if I forget ok?

[LlamaFluff]

@Reg - I keep going back and forth on TS, and am trying to get to the bottom of something that really is bugging me here about it before I push hard on it, since I was pretty convinced of TS scum until that point where I said I needed to ask something and got a response.

If this is inthread I believe I've msised it. What response did you get from TS that made you doubt the read?

It was in the middle of the day? How would I get a response from TS? I got a response that made TS sound like a not good lynch though. Still kinda thinking I was messed with, but will get to the bottom of that as soon as I can.

Still not going to claim. I feel Glass handled my role completely wrong, although as I said I could see justification for doing so, and through his actions, me living longer point more at a nieghbor of mine being scum. The claim from power sort of offset this though, and wicked was a fairly obvious N1 kill. I do consider it a very minor tell for Sea and Nacho that I am alive though.

I think it's fair to assume that GreyICE dies tonight due to the strength a vig has in such a setup meaning I don't see how you claiming increases the chances you die at all. It just helps us deal with today as well as self-clearing yourself if it is 100% confirmable.

Scum would be idiots to kill GI for various reasons. Im not near lynch, my role condems or clears no one, and my role shouldnt effect how any other players should act since its neighbor specific.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok.... going to take this one step at a time one more time

Grey is town due to role and interactions
Sea is town due to Set trying to push him to be the lynch over JJ for a period of time leading to the end of day one. I see no reason for a goon to be trying to sacrafice a partner over his teammate of unknown role, especially when the other player has not claimed. That said I still am uneasy putting Sea as town, but I sorta know his town meta which comes off as slightly scummy for the norm. Also the whole AV thing puts him as townish.

Nacho - Claimed Survivor, also did quite a bit of damage to Set, so probably not scum if lying, dont think he is scum either way. A few QT things he said to me make me feel like he is town.

Onto the remaining people - Krypt, AV, Doom(Reg) and TS(Feysal).

Im thinking one of Krypt/AV and one of Doom/TS at this point more likely then not.

Upon rereading Doom, I like him for scum a whole lot more, especially in light of the Grey-vig claim. I actually mentioned to Sea N1 that if there was no vig, Doom was scum. Infact him breadcrumbing what I thought was vig very hard during day one is the only reason I didnt vote him and went with AV. Now that I see it more, and am looking at the interactions that he had with Set which basically go

1) Ignore Set
2) Vote set with no reason
3) Backoff quickly to go back to rereading Set/Sea
4) Jump to TS while still attacking Set/Sea playstyle
5) Threat to hammer Sea, Set slips to third suspect for unknown reasons. This is especially bad given the exchanges that Doom had been having with Set to me.
6) Is happy with a Set or Sea lynch, calls for TS vig

I just see the play from Doom here a constant back and forth on trying to figure out when Set needs to be bussed. He keeps slowly coming back to Set, then jumping out on the new big thins, whether it be Sea or TS.

If im right on this, im thinking im wrong on AV and Krypt is scum as well, but that one is more in the air.

Reg really hasnt done much since his opening post, since then its been trying to get a claim out of me, apart from that, its just been calling Sea town.

unvote
Vote Regfan

Still all over the place in this game, but time to open a new door.

[LlamaFluff]

Infact him breadcrumbing what I thought was vig very hard during day one is the only reason I didnt vote him and went with AV.

Link me to the posts in which you believed Doom soft-claimed.

The only issue with the claim is that in an endgame situation, he may choose to vote with the scum in order to save himself and win but if that's the case,

we can easily vig him

.

Right there is the only reason I pushed AV over him.

1) Ignore Set
2) Vote set with no reason
3) Backoff quickly to go back to rereading Set/Sea
4) Jump to TS while still attacking Set/Sea playstyle
5) Threat to hammer Sea, Set slips to third suspect for unknown reasons. This is especially bad given the exchanges that Doom had been having with Set to me.
6) Is happy with a Set or Sea lynch, calls for TS vig

1) Isn't true at all, ISO #32, URL #33 ISO #34, ISO #35, ISO #58, ISO #59, ISO #62, ISO #63, ISO #66, ISO #74 and ISO #77 are all directed to Set.

You proved my point. Except for a little arguement (33-35) Doom ignored Set until point 2.

2) The vote is ISO #57 where he votes her in a period where Sea is at L-2. Explain what scummotivtion there is in doing so.

Probably fear of putting Sea at L-1 at that point in the game, this may be due to me saying just before that I could see a Set-Sea-AV trio as well. He did immediately go back to saying Set and Sea are both scummy of the exact same reasons though.

3) The unsureness that Doom had between Sea/Set was shared by the entire room, everyone was going back from one to the other, so exactly in what way is that a scum-tell?

Not the ENTIRE room. There were a couple people squarely in either camp. Note that doom basically ignored my defense of Sea as well the entire time. He also was only on Set for about 8 hours, and in that time, Set managed to look worse if anything. That was not a strong lynching vote, I see it more of a distancing vote.

4) Doom shared my suspicion of TS I believe, in what way is attacking an alternate FoS while being unsure over Set/Sea a scumtell?

Vote, not FoS. Also this was RIGHT after he explicitly implied that Set/Sea were his top reads. It comes out of absolutely nowhere, and some of the attacks on him are wierd. He pressures TS for saying Sea is scum and for calling Set town (while Doom voted him about 24 hours ago). That makes no sense to me, and reads of scum trying to instead set TS up for when either or both of those two flip for having taken the wrong stances on them. You can for a second say that you dont pay attention to who has taken the wrong stances on people as scum to use that later. Doom just jumped the gun here.

5) I can't answer thiis, one I have no idea why Doom threatened to hammer Sea because I read Sea as town.

I can. Doom is scum. Again, this contradicts his attack on TS for calling Sea scum just a little bit ago. Everything feels out of place and like he is scrambling to figure out what the right move is.

6) Again, everyone believed a Sea/Set lynch was good, in what way is this relevant only to Doom? Again, what way is asking for your FoS to be vigged a scum-tell?

Lots of reasons. In a position where Sea was a wagon not going away, TS was a wagon that could have been gaining ground, and Set was a wagon holding on a bit as well, we were at a bit of a crossroad for where the right move was. When this happened, Doom shoved Set to the back of his top three for no given reason. Makes NO sense. Look at the posts from Doom leading up to this point, they all are somewhat pressuring Set while not mentioning Sea, yet at the end of it all that somehow means that Sea is more likely scum? Even when Set was the most recent of the two he voted? Not happening from a natural town thought process. I mean, he moves Scum back to #3, rival wagon prob-town to #2, leaning town to #1. Then he jumps on his #3 when he is offically screwed, while still saying that he is happy with a lynch of Sea... I just dont see town doing that

Reg really hasnt done much since his opening post, since then its been trying to get a claim out of me, apart from that, its just been calling Sea town.

1. This isn't true at all you only have to read my posts to know that - On top of that you haven't responded to ANY of the questions or suspicions I had for you in my opening post.
2. This isn't a scum-tell, if it was you'd be voting Feysal.

For your points here... you really are mostly concentrating on my claim after your catchup post. You defend Sea a bit, but a majority of your posts are spent doing that and trying to get me to claim.

"Against" me you have the wanting to lynch Nacho (which IS the correct move, cannot stress this enough for everyone in future games, ALWAYS lynch claimed non-town, since they are a threat to the town win condition), not trying hard enough to get the wagon off Quar due to not digging up links, and thats really about it.

Also yes, not doing much is a tell, but im thinking TS may be town due to something said to me by Nacho, and I still lean that way.

@Grey - You have to be insane to think that Wicked wasnt going to get killed due to being obv-town. You also missed his spat with Set near the end of the first day? I wouldnt be shocked if none of Wickeds partners were scum if those were his reads, but still, unless they were sure that someone was a power role, no way wicked was living. Game was fractured and he was one of the only ones who was obviously town.

Its Doom+Krypt I think, it works on interactions, vote counts, everything.

[LlamaFluff]

Grey - You are missing the fact that the really bad Quar wagon was mostly formed by a mysterious falling apart of the JJ wagon, followed by most people refusing to acknowledge what has been at L-2 when I pushed hard for that, which on its own is pretty indicative of a scum wagon.

If it would get the game kickstarted, I would be fine with a push on Krypt to see what happens there. I just apathied out of this game a little and need to get back into it, since there is ONE thing from Reg that keeps making me doubt my read a little.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote Krypten

To complete the quad-fecta of voting everyone who I dont see as town. Krypt is probably scum (with Reg) though, and I actually am more interested in that flip right now given the screws on other reads that this really gives. I still cant see a game where Krypt and AV are both town (since Sea-town im sure of). Just think this might be the better spot to start.

For a big point against Krypt, he really ignored the elephant in the room that was Set yesterday, along with a few other odd comments that when I have more than 10 minutes to post I will lay out.

Krypt and Regfan, that will do it.

[LlamaFluff]

The only reason im sorta ok is that I have already been claimed to/through by all but three people. Still, I would rather wait another day, depending on what happens with lynches today. If certain claims happen if a player gets ran up, then yes its claim time, but for now, there is no real point since I know of two exceedingly week roles alive + grey + wicked + pack... I dont see more than one decent role left around and no reason to out them

[LlamaFluff]

@Grey - Who the hell is Seas partner? I dont really see one outside of AV, who is Krypt is lynched and flips town is nearly confirmed scum. And if that happens we deal with it when we get there.

[LlamaFluff]

@Grey - Who the hell is Seas partner? I dont really see one outside of AV, who is Krypt is lynched and flips town is nearly confirmed scum. And if that happens we deal with it when we get there.

No we have a claimed third party. Either you or AV is a good third, Setael and Seacore avoid seriously mentioning both of you like you're on fire. I like seeing seacore dead. You are using the same information excuse that Seacore loves.

Ok, so your arguement is essentially that there is a neutral survivor and THREE scum? Get out of here. Its Three scum OR two and survivor. Especially when all town roles are nerfed by only being able to target neighbors, you know better then to think that.

@Grey - Look, im not lynching Sea unless Krypt is town, since that opens up AV-scum (who if scum is with Sea or Reg) and the possibility of Sea-scum. Am I going to say he is a top town read? No, there are people I would lynch him over here, BUT I am going to say that I need more then "he is scum" to lynch him, when there is only one pairing he works in.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Im out of time from this time tomorrow until late Sunday

@mod

- Can we have a slight deadline extension since I likely wont be able to post for the last three days before deadline hits? (not wanting to getting up a 6AM to post)

[LlamaFluff]

Trip got rained out (seriously, I can post weather link) so I should be around again now.

Vote AV

That wagon inspires me with confidence

[LlamaFluff]

Considering it's MYLO NL is always an option. If we mislynch me today, Nacho wins with scum tomorrow.

NO HE DOESNT

Look, there is NO such thing as a three scum + survivor setup in a mini. Especially given that the town roles are exceedingly nerfed. Either nacho is screwing with us, or there are two scum total. No other option.

[LlamaFluff]

@Reg - It works. I know quite a bit about whats going on behind the scenes in this game, information all up and down this game. Two scum remaining can easily work here, and I will continue to believe that unless otherwise proven.

[LlamaFluff]

@AV - Claim.

[LlamaFluff]

@Reg - It works. I know quite a bit about whats going on behind the scenes in this game, information all up and down this game. Two scum remaining can easily work here, and I will continue to believe that unless otherwise proven.

Two scum remaining + Survivor is something you said can NOT be the case. Essentially you're saying that Nacho isn't survivor which differs from your previous opinion on him being instant lynched.

One of my neighbors claimed information to me that makes this work. Since they apparently are not interested in saying what it is, im not going to claim it for them. However it makes what I talked about possible. As it is not relevant to todays lynch, its staying quiet unless they tell me they want it claimed.

[LlamaFluff]

Right move there is also tacking a "vote AV" onto that since deadline is in about 24 hours.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually 48, forgot it got extended. Still is probably the right move unless you are sure he is town though.

[LlamaFluff]

I actually am at a complete loss as to what that comment from AV means really.

@AV - When did you learn about this claim?

I would be willing to lynch Krypt to stop a no lynch, but I really think that AV is the better pick across the board, just because of the information it gives on a few people. But there is *zero* way in my book AV and Krypt are town. Interactions in the game suggest it to start, but the location of a vig also makes it borderline bastard modding for neither of them to be scum (unless this was a dice throw distribution).

@Fey/AV - What have you two talked about at nights? As much detail as possible too please.
@Reg - Same to you and Set.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama is now on the 'information lynch' wagon again. Why don't we try lynching scum, Llama darling? You could have lynched Jedo for information yesterday, but Setael was a tad better, yes she was.

But AV is more likely scum than Krypt is. If Krypt is scum who is it with? Answer to that is just one person, if you are orginizing all off the possible pairings, that one is a ways down the list too. Now Krypts claim causes me a little pause given how similar it is to mine, but its been used the right way making me think its town, therefore, AV is scum (and good for info regardless of flip).

Mass Claim WILL FUCKING HAPPEN TOMORROW and everyone better be claimed to their neighbors by now. If we don't sort out the power roles, then things are bad.

No dur. Although I already know everyones claim but Reg. People are far from secretive in this game for some reason.

[LlamaFluff]

Question to those people who are better at looking for relationships than I am. Can AV and Krypt be scum buddies?

Improbable but not impossible, its way down on possible pairs though. AV would have needed to be exceedingly confident that his bus would give him just the amount of town credit he needed to reach an endgame without raising suspicion as to why he got there. The interactions between the two arent reading as scum-scum.

If Krypt targeted AV, chance of that being true is basically zero, since its an ability waste used at a smart time if both scum, but an idea I doubt krypt or AV would have came up with.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote Krypt

I still think she is slightly more likely town than AV, but this is most likely the last I can post today.

[LlamaFluff]

*yawn*

You know what is a good question in the meantime, why everyone ignored me at night.

[LlamaFluff]

No one makes any comment or vote until mass-claim is over.

I'm a VT

Nacho next is fine.

By the way I just realized this means im confirmed town. Bitchin.

[LlamaFluff]

Because someone used a power role to move neighbors, I have a proveable role, so I couldnt have done it.

[LlamaFluff]

Being vague is pointless right now, we're massclaiming today and players are locked into claims therefore you releasing more information early isn't going to do anything but help.

Actually the opposite, as confirmed town I should claim late since it will panic scum.

[LlamaFluff]

Order is:

Nacho
Sea
Feysal

Not debateable

[LlamaFluff]

Im a daytalker.

Will do analysis and stuff later.

[LlamaFluff]

Now, my *gut* here says that the last scum is either Regfan or Seacore and they are a backup role from this objective theory list, and picked up the "one shot position mover" role

1) A living player changed positions, not a game event
2) The user of the role had to target themselves, as with all other town roles

Now, my biggest reason for one of Reg/Sea is the pure mystery of "why would someone like Feysal move those two". It gains nothing for them, infact it allows for town to continue to talk with town, and not only that but new town. I just really cant see scum doing this on two town players, and instead at least trying to make it benifit them by moving themselves or their own neighbor. Due to this theory, I am nearly willing to write Feysal and Nacho town. AV nearly for sure town due to it (and Krypt stuff), but I could *sorta* see him doing it looking ahead to subsequent nights.

So....

Vote Regfan

for the time being. Really wish we had one more power role (confirmable) alive. Also a side point, nacho claimed VT to my slot early D1 which is why I was confident over scum numbers the entire time despite sorta contradicting myself.

[LlamaFluff]

Well we arent lynching YET

I really would like a day or two just to look the game over and all that jazz.

Also im obviously not saying publicly why im confirmed town just incase im in the bluff again, but I will dangle that out there for scum at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

Wait, jesus christ can someone unvote I'm completly out of the loop here, who moved?

You are at L-2... no need to unvote really at this point.

You and Seacore moved positions, apparently perminantly. I mean, why did you think you were able to talk to me last night (and today).

I just am going to plant this vote here for the time being. I have been thinking the pairing is likely for a while, and the early Doom->Krypt interactions look like scum to scum where he called Krypt scummy but didnt want to vote due to high count, and then later moved to the big wagon of the day just dropping everything about Krypt.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

No quick lynches

[LlamaFluff]

@Reg - Can you give me an indepth as possible rundown about what Krypt has said each night to you?

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama: since you're here, could you respond to my points about Nacho's gambit?

I didnt like it and openly told him if it wasnt for him having claimed to me I would have ran him up immediately upon replacing in. As I have said, I dont think I have ever been in a game with a survivor (reviewed one) in three years and exposure to at least a good 60 games. The role is outdated unless you can put a good twist on it, and doesnt belong in minis.

If it wasnt for the D1/D2 interactions with Set I would be willing to lynch him today.

@Reg - Make a case. No one will lynch you in the meantime.

[LlamaFluff]

@Nacho - While I agree with quite a few of your points really, my biggest problem is the supposed N0 action. Now I have no idea if actions were really allowed N0 or not, but if they were... why would Krypt talk to her partner?

Eggh...

Wish there was a lot more to be confident over at this stage in the game.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok, I have to look at this from an objective standpoint of why would people do the things that they have in this endgame. First question of course is why would Sea move himself away from me? That makes zero sense since we both had town reads in eachother and we would have had the ability to talk in private which would have helped him go further in the game. I cant see scum-sea move himself away from me at all. Next question is did Reg really realize that he was moved, I mean, could scum be that bold as to feign ignorance over that? Not too sure.

Now we move over to Nacho, AV and Feysal. If Reg and Sea are town, they were moved to either through WIFOM over there or keep me and Sea apart. Either one of these I see coming least from Feysal. Also the claim like nacho pointed out... would TS really be able to come up with a BP fakeclaim like that pregame?

Whats up with the N0 ability from Krypt too? How does that really benifit anyone? What gets me though is that the rules

specifically

hint at a N0 action. But again, Krypt uses it on a partner? Really? I honestly can believe that scum-Krypt decided to just burn her power on a random player.

.................................................................................................

........
...................................

damn

no epiphany yet.

Still. Here are my early conclusions

1) Sea is town. It makes no sense for him to move away from me as scum since I had a town read on him. WIFOM I know but still I cant see it happening. Other actions back this up heavily.
2) I actually lean Feysal to town. Some interactions + the role and who claimed it. Was it stupid to claim when he did? Yeah but I can still see him doing that as scum.
3) If Krypt had a N0 action, AV is town. If Krypt had no N0 action, AV is scum. I actually lean to the action being real. I can completely see scum pulling a move like that.

As M. Night Shamallamallamalyin says...

ITS A TWIST

Vote Nacho

[LlamaFluff]

NO! Damnit Feysal I wanted to be the one pointing out that N0 rule thing

[LlamaFluff]

I think there is a slip from Nacho out there, I want to see if anyone else actually comes to the same conclusion I did though. One thing makes zero sense from town to me, and more like scum with a fakeclaim given to them.

[LlamaFluff]

AV got it!

I see zero idea for town to actually lie about their flavor name. What difference does it make if he says he is Mr. X or Mrs. Y for that flavor? Then again why would scum lie about it... but I see it as slightly more likely that scum has a safeclaim name for whatever reason and messed it up.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Friggen hate endgames.

[LlamaFluff]

I need to think about this better.

First assumption in this position is that Sea is town. He would not have needed to move himself away from me to make me suspect of Reg and risk me thinking he is scum over something like that. I had told him and everyone else that I thought Reg-Krypt was a good chance at a scumteam quite a few times throughout the game. He also claimed vanilla to me early before all the PR claims started coming out fast so I consider that a slight town tell.

Feysal is town because I really doubt that the role is a lie, and for the same reasons I am cleared he is. I dont see scum NOT claiming backup, since its a legitimate role in this game, especially claiming something else entirely as early in the game as he did.

So its one of AV/Reg/Nacho.

The biggest wildcard is Reg. Question here is would he feign ignorance over being moved. Nothing in the QT shows him thinking this much either way, although he did seem to realize that Nacho was my other neighbor, so I have to wonder how he missed ordering a bit. Not sure, will come back to all of this later. I mean, I could easily see a scum flip from any of these three at this point. At least we are running an at least 67% win chance.

Maybe im leaning to AV right now because I *so* want my early game suspicion of him to be right, but we will see.

[LlamaFluff]

Problem with that Feysal is that Grey was amazingly obviously a one shot vig given how the play there occured. I will be shocked if anyone really didnt take that into consideration. Also a doctor in this game after the watcher flip? Those roles dont work together without serious scum power.

I just need to think about this some. Honestly I like the point that Krypt never voted for scum with the possible exception of Reg. Newbies are really hard for me to get interactions off of though since their play tends to be non-standard.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Regfan

I think im overthinking.

Also work is kicking my ass right now since it just changed hours and im all out of whack.