Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[Bella]

Hi guys. I need to read through the game, but if anyone could point out stuff that I need to pay attention to, it'd be very helpful.

[Bella]

Just letting you know I'm still catching up, but I hope to post something tomorrow and will definitely contribute by Monday at the earliest.

[Bella]

Just letting you know I'm still catching up, but I hope to post something tomorrow and will definitely contribute by Monday at the earliest.

*looks at non-existent watch*

Stritly speaking, I did say at the earliest, even if I didn't mean to.

Also, I blame Shanba for making me play LoL with him instead of posting in his game yesterday.

Anyway, now I'm caught up, the two things I was asked to comment on:

Pay attention to nopointscums.

I can definitely see where you're going with a nopoint case. He's been avoiding answering questions, using inaccurate evidence repeatedly to back up his case despite it being pointed out, he's really inflexible and focused too harshly on certain players. and he seems to have been substituting vehemence for a quality case. Not good signs fior his townishness.

iamausername replaces in and immediately comments on his predecessor's scumminess. It's not an infallible tell, and he didn't outright criticize his predecessor, but it's worth noting. In his second post he derides the notion that it's any kind of tell. lol. He seems to be a step up from nopoint in terms of scumhunting, but I really dislike his not claiming at L-1 with an approaching deadline that would leave us little time to find scum if his claim provides reason to not lynch him.

Pay attention to see if you find a link between Truant/Cogito Ergo Sum and Mr. Buddy Lee.

I'm not seeing it - or at least, not in the same way you are. I have a pretty strong town-read on MBL. I don't necessarily agree with his methods - I personally find that looking for partners is best left until after we have a scum flip - but I've seen people use that tactic successfully as town. His reasonings appear solid - in my read through I didn't notice any egrarious errors in his logic, reasoning or the evidnece supporting them, and his thought processes display consideration of the possibility he may not be right, which I tend to find is a more pro-town way of thinking than declaring anything that moves to be definitively scum or not scum. CES I have a less strong read on, but I'd be willing to bet he's town. He's playing in a manner consistent with previous experience of his town play, at least - particularly the "vote without stating reasons" thing that's been leveled against him, I've seen him do that plenty of times as town.

Your buddying accusation seems to come down essentially to CES answering some questions you asked MBL. In my opinion, it's simply a case that CES understood what MBL was saying and was attempting to make people understand and stop misinterpreting what MBL was saying. I don't see that as buddying, I see that as ensuring the town doesn't go off on wild goose-chases.

[Bella]

Okay, so who are your top scum reads, Bella?

Currently, iamausername and Apok would be the leading candidates. iam because of the scumminess of his predecessor mentioned above and Apok because of OGML's behavior with the tunnelling and attempting to guide the conversation to focus on certain players to the exclusion of others and such but also for the way he came into the game, helped push the Moz wagon to a conclusion and then jumped on nopoint for pushing for a Moz vig.

Beyond that, I'm not really sure.

Also, do you cponsider having few logical fallacie a towntell?

Without context, I don't consider it any sort of tell. People are fallable. They change their minds. It's not necessarily something that has any bearing on their alignment.

Just letting you know I'm still catching up, but I hope to post something tomorrow and will definitely contribute by Monday at the earliest.

*looks at non-existent watch*

Stritly speaking, I did say at the earliest, even if I didn't mean to.

If we read it strictly, the "I hope" part is a lie, so you lose either way.

Untrue, I genuinely hoped to have contributed sooner.

[Bella]

Go to hell, Wester.

[Bella]

If we don't lynch a PR today, say because one claimed to avoid the noose, and we lynch scum or a VT instead, then we can't lose a second PR through the NK.

I'm fully prepared to hammer if there's no claim forthcoming.

[Bella]

Or, y'know, however many possible night kills there are.

Also, we've got one outed power role already. If ima has a claim to make that could pursuade us to lynch someone else, then at least one will survive the night, and we'll definitely get to use either iam's power tonight or get the dayvig tomorrow. Well, unless there's a roleblocker, I guess, but then he'd be taken up by one of them and potentially other power roles would be free to do whatever.

[Bella]

Why am I down as voting for Apok and not voting?

Also: ima should claim or die.

[Bella]

iam has had more than ample opportunity to claim. Next post, or I'm hammering.

[Bella]

VOTE: iamausername

[Bella]

Also: Meransiel is an idiot. Thanks for claiming for me on day one. Neighbour doesn't mean one must be scum. Shanba is too smart for that. The lack of confirmation significantly weakens the power of the role, which helps with the balance. Bleh.

[Bella]

Not sure what Meransiel is playing at right now, but it doesn't look like a scum move to me. Bella is my top pick for scum, besides that I'd look at scot and CES as most likely. Do not fall into the trap of thinking that newbie play is mutually exclusive from scum play and really look at what Tuncali was doing. Also look at what Bella has done so far, namely, stalled on catching up, and then still avoided taking solid stances as much as possible.

Solid stances are scummier than equivocated stances. Town do not have certain knowledge. Scum do. It's one of the reasons I find MBL to be townish, the fact that he's thinking in terms of possibly being wrong.

Also, the stalling on catching up can be checked with the mod - I was playing LoL with him when I intended to be doing it and I was coerced into doing that against my will.

And I still haven't done anything that approaches the scumminess of refusing to claim.

[Bella]

This is a post because Shanba is yelling at me and I don't have time to post properly.

[Bella]

Also: Meransiel is an idiot. Thanks for claiming for me on day one. Neighbour doesn't mean one must be scum. Shanba is too smart for that. The lack of confirmation significantly weakens the power of the role, which helps with the balance. Bleh.

Why idiot and not scum? Didn't seem to suspect Meransiel at all for the unprovoked claim.

Two reasons: One, Meransiel read like an idiot who didn't know what he was doing rather than scum. Two, I believe Shanba is more likely to have two town neighbours in a game than one scum and one townie neighbour based off my knowledge of how hwe thinks, his approach to balance and his opinions on certain roles. Combine the two, and I think he's town.

CES I have a less strong read on, but I'd be willing to bet he's town. He's playing in a manner consistent with previous experience of his town play, at least - particularly the "vote without stating reasons" thing that's been leveled against him, I've seen him do that plenty of times as town.

Really not sure there was enough to go on to be willing to bet CES was town at the time. He was tunneled on nopoint and poking at Amrun. Null at best for me, thus I see Bella's statement here as overreaching and possibly scummy. "he votes without reasons as town" is a lousy argument for pro-town CES on April 12th.

I find it hard to be persuaded by a case that relies upon someone doing something that is a consistent part of their town meta as evidence that they are scum. It happens to me plenty.

[Bella]

I find it hard to be persuaded by a case that relies upon someone doing something that is a consistent part of their town meta as evidence that they are scum. It happens to me plenty.

So CES only gives pithy answers as town? The point here is not that you disagreed unreasonably with the case that CES was scum, but rather that you used this as your primary evidence that CES is town.

From this point forward, you all are going to hear this drumbeat incessantly from CES:

Everyone should vote, preferably for MBL.

You have two choices: ignore it, or cave in and lynch a townie. Please resist.

No, but giving pithy answers is something he does either way, so it doesn't convince me either way. In any case, my interpretation of CES's behavior is that it's less scummy than your AtE in this post.

As much as I'd like Meransiel to be scum so I can lynch him, the fact that he's pushing so hard against my slot and has been since he claimed for my predecessor lends itself to the interpretation that he's not scum, since I'd expect the scum half of a neighbor pair to avoid trying to push the "either or" kinda situation he's pushing.

[Bella]

Amrun is alive, and MBL has posted a reasonable case against her.

[Bella]

I just don't think Meransiel is likely to have attacked me so strongly for being scum because I'm an unconfirmed neighbour if he was the scum half of a scum/town pairing, because to make it work he'd have to plant the idea in people's minds that one or other of us was scum and once I flipped town, he'd have to defend himself against his own arguments. I just don't see it.

[Bella]

Ugh. VOTE: MBL, I guess.

[Bella]

Bella: Why did you drop to MBL yesterday?

Most likely lynch when we were at a deadline.

I tracked implosion N2 and Bella N3.

NO SILLY VOTES

Amrun, do you think Meransiel-Bella could be our scum team?

Maybe I'm missing something... but why are we accepting as gospel the fact that there are two scum remaining?

[Bella]

Two is immensely more likely, but it's never a good sign when people make assumptions like that and use unsubstantiated assumptions as a basis for looking for scum.

[Bella]

I'm waiting to see if Amrun's messages come through before I draw conclusions.

[Bella]

Alrtight.

Meransiel
Oman
Amrun
implosion
Cogito Ergo Sum

I recieved a message, which seems to indicate that Amrun is at least telling the truth about her ability and given the nature of it, I don't believe it to be a likely scum role. Thus, I'm willing to giveher the benefit of the doubt for now. Meransiel doesn't read like scum to me, as I've stated before - my instinctive reaction to the attempt at night talking and his initial approach to the neighbour situation make me consider him to be likely town. CES reads like town CES to me, although he's a little hard to read. Thus,l process of elimination says Oman/Implosion.

VOTE: implosion

[Bella]

So, Amrun is scum?

[Bella]

Normally, I'd vote to No Lynch in this situation, but if Oman is scum, then that'd be game over.

[Bella]

I hope I'm right to trust Oman...

VOTE: No Lynch

[Bella]

VOTE: Amrun