Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[iamausername]

Hey all, I'll be getting caught up over the next day or two, and then you can all feel silly for thinking my predecessor was scum.

I remember thinking Amrun wasn't getting enough attention back when I offered to replace in with the first batch, but there's been like double the pages since then, so I don't know how that's gonna hold up.

[iamausername]

Post #7: This was a super scummy opening post from Tuncali that got somewhat forgotten in all the weirdness that mozamis and Meransial had going on.

Post #31: Right, this was the first thing that seemed off about Amrun first time round. It feels like she was trying to cast bogus suspicion on Truant, then got scared when someone shone a light on her and tried to clumsily back away from it.

Post #36: Meransial's "people who don't post at all can't be scum" - I get why people pressed him on this, but I really think it's just poor communication, not a heinous attempt to protect his lurking buddies. It seems clear to me that what he meant was that lurking can be scummy, someone who lurks to the point that they get replaced without ever posting is not doing so for any alignment related reasons.

Post#39: Wow, Tuncali. "I am sorry if I said something that I was not expected to say." That's two posts now where his primary motivation is very, very obviously trying to fit in with everyone else.

Post #65: This post from Meransial is more suspicious, for much the same reasons as the Amrun one above. Saying some behaviour is suspicious in general, but not in this particular instance, with no real reason why the instance in question is unique.

Post #67: Dislike even more than Amrun jumps in on this without addressing the questions about her own similar offence.

Post #77: BlenBlen's curt response when OGML tries to force focus on moz and Mer feels very town to me. He's not afraid to go against the grain.

Post #79: Mer's accusation that Amrun is talking in code is so ridiculously paranoid I kind of feel like it has to come from town. No way he could believe that he'd convince anyone with this as a scum ploy.

Post #82: On the other hand, this kind of looks like a scum slip. Truant accuses him of, among other things, "defending a scum-lurker-buddy", and Meransial says "he is flaking, not lurking". So he's totally not denying the 'defending a scum-buddy' part.

Post #110: Meransial gets this game confused with another. The only other game he was in at the time with the Nacho he mentions here is this one, in which he has flipped scum. I think it's less likely that he'd confuse the two games if he had different alignments in each, so I'd say this makes him more likely scum here.

Post #158: Let's talk about MBL. A bunch of people jumped on him for 'criticizing his predecessor', and obviously that is not actually a viable scumtell and these people are dumb. Oh hey, one of them was my predecessor. DRAMATIC IRONY.

Highlighting this post in particular because I'm completely in agreement with the town end of his reads; pj, implosion and kunkstar are all solidly town. I'd throw BlenBlen in there too, and I don't particularly agree with the way he's divided the scummy and the neutrals, but shared town reads are a good sign.

Post #161: *yawn* at Meransial being "SURE" MBL is scum, wtf at being "SURE" scot is. Since when?

Post #165: Another post from Tuncali that says "HEY EVERYONE HOW DO I FIT IN" and nothing else.

Post #185: Good posting from Meransial. He should definitely pursue this case on scot instead of getting caught up in the dumb wagon on MBL.

Post #186: Horrible posting from Amrun.

Post #203: This one is interesting. Amrun misinterprets Meransial's comment as being a scum slip, instead of the more obvious and correct reading. This may indicate prior knowledge of scot's alignment on her part, because it's a weird leap to make without it.

Post #228: Tuncali finally does something that bears some resemblance to scum hunting. It's not a very convincing imitation, but at least he's trying. Besides the fact that this is a terrible reason to vote PJ, I find it highly suspect that he says this vote is "for the time being". Doesn't sound like something you'd say if you were voting for someone you genuinely thought was scum. It's more of a 'this is a convenient place for my vote to go right now'.

Post #232: Round of applause for kunkstar for calling Amrun out on this casting of vague suspicion.

Post #301: Pretty much comes across as sour grapes to me. Amrun knows that PJ is above suspicion at this point, but she sure ain't happy about it.

Post #370: I don't like MBL refusing to condense his read on Meransial into an easily digestible sentence, especially after his whole "go shoplifting if you have a problem with authority" crack earlier. There's no pro-town reason to be obstinate about this.

Post #385: Look at Amrun's read on MBL, there's that 'for now' thing again. Like she's already decided that she's going to change her mind about her read on MBL at some point in the future.

---

Feh. I think I picked the wrong format to approach this replace-in post. Let's try this instead. In order from townly to scummy:

petroleumjelly

- I don't think I need to explain why he is obvtown here.

kunkstar7

- No scumminess in his posts, and he alone has been pursuing Amrun, which I approve of completely. Town through and through.

Blenblen/Darkstrike

- Blenblen's posting had an air of fearlessness, of not caring that his behaviour might cause people to suspect him. Darkstrike's posting has an air of earnestness. I don't know that he's looking in the right directions, but I definitely think he's trying to.

implosion

- He's fine. There's nothing that in his posting that I could point to as definitive evidence of townliness, but he's done nothing to make me suspicious either, so likelihood is pretty good that he's town.

Meransial

- Gut says he's town, but I have a couple of nagging doubts, as mentioned above. The fact that he essentially admits to an accusation that he is defending a scumbuddy, and only argues with what he is defending them about, and the fact that he managed to get this game mixed up with a game where he was scum.

MrBuddyLee

- Most of the case against him has been terrible, but I do find his stubborn refusal to condense his points into easily digestible short posts problematic. Succinctness aids clarity, and clarity is obviously helpful to town. I can understand getting carried away and making longer posts than you intend to when you start, but when someone straight up asks you to give a brief summary of your opinions on another player, it does not help anyone to call them lazy and post obstinate gibberish instead.

scotmany12

- I'm concerned about him, because I get a fairly strong feeling that he is just drifting by, avoiding controversy. I can't really point to any strong original thoughts that he's contributed to the game.

Truant/Cogito Ergo Scum

- Truant was one of the worst offenders on the MBL crapwagon. CES has then done little but call for a lynch of someone I happen to know to be town. I don't think that's entirely unjustified; my predecessor was the other worst offender on the MBL crapwagon. But I'm not exactly overwhelmed by pro-town behaviour coming from that slot.

Amrun

- She does a whole lot of weasely double speak "that could be scummy, but maybe not in this instance" early on, then gleefully jumps on an attack on Meransial for doing the exact same thing. Selective appliance of scumtells continues, as she attacks Meransial for displaying overconfidence in another player's alignment, but doesn't seem to care when other players, who are less easy targets than him, do the same thing. On several occasions, she says something along the lines of 'I am not going to vote for MBL for now' or 'I am not suspicious of MBL yet', implying that regardless of what MBL does, she intends to vote for him in the future. Also when she does express suspicion of MBL, she seems to have a completely different reason for doing so in every post. She's also constantly apologizing unnecessarily for her activity levels, suggesting a high level of concern about how she is coming off.

Having said all that, this is all from the first half of the game. I think she's improved a lot more recently, and I'm starting to doubt my read on her a little. Her attacks on CES look genuine to me, as does her reappraisal of Meransial.

Tuncali/Bella

- Bella hasn't done anything yet. Tuncali's posting consisted almost entirely of asking what he needed to do in order to fit in with the town, which seems pretty noobscum to me. I'm baffled that nobody seemed much worried about him

OMGL/Apokalyptica

- OGML did nothing but try to force focus on moz and Mer, the big attention gatherers of the day. This would be super lazy scumhunting, if in fact he had any interest in finding scum. Apokalyptica has been much like scot in going with the flow, not making waves, but even more so. And on this very page she just commited a solid scumtell in saying "Scot, I'm voting nopoint/username, and I said I had something of a scumread on MBL." Not that she has a scumread on MBL, but that

she has said

that she has a scum read on MBL. It shows an enhanced concern about appearing consistent that a town player wouldn't have. I've caught out considerably more experienced players than this on the same tell before, and it's enough to push her right to the bottom of the pile for me.

VOTE: Apokalyptica

[iamausername]

Back and reading. Would just like to remind players that it is

6 to lynch

because of my role (and not 7 to lynch, as one might assume). I do not want to have to deal with "I didn't know I was hammering!" in this game.

Isn't it still 7 to lynch, with 12 players alive? Are you forgetting that mini games start with 13 players these days?

[iamausername]

I still like my CES vote but will vote for iamusername to achieve a lynch.

Let's pretend there are five votes on Apok too, and you have the deciding vote. Me or her?

kunkstar's reads are also okay, but again, there are some that I don't see. nopoint town, obviously, I don't agree with. Both him and iam also had Meransiel as scum, which I'm thinking less as time goes on.

I don't think Meransial is scum. There's a couple of things that gave me concerns, but on the whole he reads as town to me.

P.S. iamausername should claim.

Hmm, not yet.

Unvote

VOTE: Bella

Tick tock.

[iamausername]

I know.

[iamausername]

Yeah, I was wrong about Amrun. She's town.

Unvote

VOTE: Apokalyptica

Not that Bella looks any more town than her predecessor, but I have to be realistic here.

Can everyone please stop giving me Claiming For Dummies lectures and trust that I am fully aware of the approaching deadline, and the fact that I am at L-1, and the potential consequences of not claiming at this stage and reached an informed decision that it is not the right time for me to claim right now?

Can everyone who is not voting for either me or Apok give a reasonable explanation for how they can possibly believe anyone else is going to be lynched today?

Can anyone who is saying "my top scumreads are iam and Apok" please commit themselves to one or the other? Specifically, commit yourself to hammering me, because obviously you have no actual intention of bussing Apok here.

Thanks in advance.

[iamausername]

[iamausername]

Meransial, why are you voting for me, anyway?

[iamausername]

Meransial, why are you voting for me, anyway?

To be honest? No reason at all.

OK, do you think you could maybe stop voting for me then? Are you really happy to lynch someone when you have no reason to do so?

scot, why are you waiting for tomorrow to evaluate Apok? Don't you think it would be a good idea to make sure you are making an informed lynch choice today?

Is everyone else on this wagon happy with the company they're keeping? Do you not think that this level of complacency might just be a sign that this is obviously a bad lynch?

[iamausername]

...

THAT'S NOT NO REASON AT ALL THEN IS IT.

Why did you vote for nopoint?

The answer to that question is the same as the answer to "Why are you voting for me?". Please try to actually answer it this time.

[iamausername]

I'm not dead yet? OK. Didn't expect that.

If I had anything to claim that ought to save my from the lynch I would have done so several days ago, duh. I firmly believe that as a vanilla townie, it is optimum play to refuse to claim under any circumstance, because I think the reads you'll all get from seeing how I didn't get hammered yet will be much better than the reads you'd get if I'd claimed as soon as asked and someone hammered straight away because I'm an acceptable lynch. Consider this next time you're run up as vanilla, f'real.

As my last dying words I'll say that I doubt that Apok is scum at this point. Out of everyone who's on my wagon, she's definitely justified her position the best, despite the fact that she has a built in excuse in that she's the only other person on the chopping block. What she's said about my read on Meransial is wrong, but I can certainly understand how she'd draw those conclusions, and it really felt like genuine suspicion.

Not sure what Meransiel is playing at right now, but it doesn't look like a scum move to me. Bella is my top pick for scum, besides that I'd look at scot and CES as most likely. Do not fall into the trap of thinking that newbie play is mutually exclusive from scum play and really look at what Tuncali was doing. Also look at what Bella has done so far, namely, stalled on catching up, and then still avoided taking solid stances as much as possible.

That's all. Put me out of my misery already, geez.

[iamausername]

Oh yeah, and

Unvote

VOTE: Bella

For symbolic reasons, if nothing else.