Mini 1055 - Return to PEGBAM (Closing Time!)

[Shanba]

Vote MBF

for blatant fishing with that doctor comment.

Is this for real?

Vote: Karen

[Shanba]

Too serious too early is, frankly, silly. If something's scummy it's scummy no matter how early it was said.

MBF's original comment was fishing, but his followup about the doctor was clearly messing about. That panzer chose to make a point of this is strange, because I don't think it's even possible to think that mbf was being serious there, or was seriously expecting a response. So to answer UK's question - I couldn't square the circle there, and one option was that he was also messing around still.

I apologise for the terseness - posting this feels like pulling knives from my gut.

[Shanba]

Yeesh. UK, you're just wrong.

JD, I don't get the backing off on panzer - but I guess I'll have to press that tomorrow. However, I want to know why, now.

Well, at this point it becomes clear kittytank meant it for some obscure reason. What about the strangeness made it scummy to you?

I don't really think he can think that honestly - hence strange and scummy. It would take a large fail in reading comprehension to misunderstand. I think it's more likely that he's scum pushing an easy weak case.

Shanba, what is the point of your post beside voicing your disagreement with "too serious too early"? Why are you giving a ready made excuse to Panzer who hasn't commented on my accusation yet

the point of that post was to voice disagrement with your "too serious too early" and to explain my position on panzer in more detail (hence answering a question UK asked). Your accusation is bullshit - I don't feel asking people to respond to bullshit accusations is useful. This is all there in that post.

Of the listed four, Oman is my choice - I don't like that he's used basically his only post for about 5 pages to address accusations at him rather than scumhunting seriously - indicates incorrect priorities. UK is being silly wrt JD, but not scummy. UA - ask again later, ongoing game read informing opinion. Ghostwriter... hrm.

GW, who do you think is scum?

[Shanba]

Someone asked for me to be prodded. I was like no way and then bbm was like yeah way and I was like well ok. Seriously, gimme a break, it's been less than 12 hours.

JD: I don't think so. I think even if he were disinterested, that doesn't affect the ordering of priorities, just the amount of effort put in.

UK: I was referring to the fact that you spent like 3 pages attacking Jdodge in a silly and futile way. I want him to answer, but I also know that him choosing not to answer doesn't have any bearing on his alignment (if anything it probably means he's slightly more likely town). And threatening him with a "WELL I'MMA VOTE YOU TOMORROW" is kinda laughable.

I've never seen a scum kingmaker, mostly because I've not seen a kingmaker out of the kingmaker setup where the kingmaker is guaranteed town. A permanent scum kingmaker can break the game if there are no safeguards by kinging scum each day. I don't think it's very likely. Some kind of n0-only-scum-kingmaker is possible, I guess, but I'm not comfortable with a GW lynch.

[Shanba]

Prozac managed an unacceptable level of fluff before beginning to play yesterday, but his contribution improved.

Vote: Flava Flave

. I want an awful lot more from panzer today.

[Shanba]

I want an awful lot more from panzer today.

Fail. Panzer is not here.

Oh, right.

Wait, what were the results of thingy's vote on him? If it's counted, he's most likely not dead yet and will be returning. In that case I guess defer my comment to whenever he gets back. If he's dead, then it's not a big loss.

[Shanba]

Hey I picked the right one from your list yesterday even while not paying attention, so why bother?

Nah, I'll try and get into the game properly. I swear.

[Shanba]

UK: didn't like his move to MBF. He didn't mention (or barely mentioned him) at all yesterday. It looks like he knows that and that's why he's suddenly switched from one liners to walls of text - attempt to cover his arse for the odd switch. I wouldn't normally care, but the case on mbf is no great shakes, and it's stuff he could have noticed yesterday.. He accused thingy of buddying, then went all RAAAAAH I FOLLOW KING POST WALL OF TEXT ABOUT HIS LIST, and then accuses mbf of going to the king for reads - (note I believe hypocrisy is a scumtell because scum model theoretical scum against what they would do as scum, given the opportunity. So say x thinks lurking is scummy, that's generally because they've seen a lot of lurker scum. The scum you get to observe most often is yourself, so you know the scumtells that work on you and tend to apply them as town.) Them's the bare bones.

[Shanba]

vis last post: when I tried to address SL's question to me, I ended up calling her UK. My bad.

I have no idea why we're wagonning scot. If it's a question of passivity, there's no shortage of that in this game. MBF town isn't too shocking, as teh case against him was overblown.

I think we need to lynch Flava flave or panzer today, but I would settle for one of the passive crowd. I wouldn't be overly happy, but eh.

[Shanba]

It'd be really nice if flava flave hadn't replaced out here. It's kinda hard to get responses from him if he's no longer in the game.

JD: I got a free day tomorrow. I'll look over the scot case then. If it's just that he killed mbf then I'm not really convinced; mbf was all else aside being pretty useless. If he was scum looking for a kill, why not go after you, or maybe ghostwriter (who I have as 80% confirmed in my mind)?

[Shanba]

JD: I got a free day tomorrow. I'll look over the scot case then. If it's just that he killed mbf then I'm not really convinced; mbf was all else aside being pretty useless. If he was scum looking for a kill, why not go after you, or maybe ghostwriter (who I have as 80% confirmed in my mind)?

It's not that he killed mbf; it's his responses in this line of questioning that scare the everloving shit out of me.

I have GhostWriter and Panzer as 90% confirmed; what do you think on the latter?

I don't have him as confirmed at all.

Hrmf, I don't get why you do either. Is it because him attacking mbf's thing is what you'd expect him to do as town? Maybe I'm gibing him too much credit, but he was never a moron, just occasionally dimwitted and did some silly shit that got him flamed, but I still would expect him to pick up that that was a joke. Plus he's one of the worst of the worst when it comes to passivity.

Enlighten me, what am I missing?

And I actually went back and read the last few pages properly. Scot wow. The brittany spears thing was super obv a joke, and the fact that he claimed your role should have made that obvious. Plus, the way he claimed looked like an attempt to wriggle away from suspicion rather than something genuine.

Oh, and scot? You were able to make two actions last night?

Prozac is a decent wagon, JD, though I confess to being practically unable to read him in general. I can't tell flakerish lurky town prozac from flakerish lurky scum prozac. But beating some answers out of him is a good place to start. I want flava flave dead as I think he's done some legit scummy stuff this game instead of just misreading/lurking which is what I have on p. much anyone else.

[Shanba]

I believe the claim. Kinda hilarious that he got himself as his role, but it makes sense. Plus, UAscum was under no pressure to claim there, and survivor is always an icky claim to make as scum. So yeah.

Given that, and given deadomancult, I think it's unlikely there's an sk as well - that would be three non-town roles already, and then we'd have to add in UK's killer (who I reckon is most likely scum, since uk was pretty townish). If scot is scum, I think we don't have a proper mafia group - and on that note, I also think it's unlikely scot is mafia fakeclaiming vig.

JD: I can compromise on przac if necessary.

[Shanba]

I believe the claim. Kinda hilarious that he got himself as his role, but it makes sense. Plus, UAscum was under no pressure to claim there, and survivor is always an icky claim to make as scum. So yeah.

Given that, and given deadomancult, I think it's unlikely there's an sk as well - that would be three non-town roles already, and then we'd have to add in UK's killer (who I reckon is most likely scum, since uk was pretty townish). If scot is scum, I think we don't have a proper mafia group - and on that note, I also think it's unlikely scot is mafia fakeclaiming vig.

JD: I can compromise on przac if necessary.

Don't you find it odd that scot didn't counter-claim MBF if he thought that MBF was telling the truth, given that being un-NKable there is no risk to himself unless people don't believe him over MBF (unlikely)? I can't think of a legit train of thought aside from aforementioned canyon-via-rocketcycle leap of logic why scot wouldn't counter-claim but would call him out there.

It is kinda odd, uhh... hrm.

Scot's vote on myko is weaksauce.

Hey SL, what are your thoughts on scot?

[Shanba]

SL: I'm wavering in my conviction. I want to believe him but it's all so icky.

[Shanba]

SL: I'm wavering in my conviction. I want to believe him but it's all so icky.

Would you agree that the general ickiness makes him a threat to the town irregardless?

I don't like that mindset. If we spend our efforts killing "threats to the town" we'll suddenly end up in lylo with a bunch of dead dumbtown. Although, I guess as a vig/sk he's more dangerous than normal. I remember a game as scum where I won in part thanks to the vig offing the (fairly obvtown) cop and doc.

Eh.

[Shanba]

Well, barring further changes I'll move to scot pre-deadline.

Scot: It actually reminds me more of the sort of thing people used to say when someone was making some funky plays: "you're either dumb or you're scum and either way town's better off with you dead." It's policy lynchish, but it has more than a small seasoning of "what you're doing is scummy, and the only way you could think that way as town is that you're stupid."

In other words, there's an element of policy lynch but a large component of scumminess mixed in.

[Shanba]

Aight.

Unvote Vote: Scot

[Shanba]

Glad to see UA is reading!

Vote: mykonian

[Shanba]

Cor, this thread is pretty quiet sans jd.

I actually have no idea who most of the people in this game think are scum. However, I have a townread on SL and JD. I've also come to the conclusion the kidnapping was probably a scum action and hence Panzer is town, but I'm prepared to hold off on that until massclaim (which should be today or tomorrow)

On a sidenote, UA becomes increasingly more dangerous for us the longer he's alive. A survivor who can lay down a single vote in a day is probably not what we want to be bringing in to lylo - I assume it's not lylo already, as scum survivor haven't forced a townlynch to gg as would happen with 3 scum and a survivor. Unless he's the sort of survivor who wins with town. Actually, we probably need him dead if he isn't - either him or a scumbag. Um, I need input!

JD! (when you return) SL! What do we do with the damn survivor? (to the tune of what shall we do with the drunken sailor)

Unvote

[Shanba]

Yes, I am aware of it, and mentioned it in my post - my point was that if we have 2 mafia, then tomorrow said situation can happen.

[Shanba]

SHANBA: WONDERING WHY YOU'RE VOTING MYK (WHO'S MAKING AN EFFORT TO PLAY) OVER PROZAC (NOT), UA (NOT, PLUS YOU'RE WARY OF HIS SURVIVORDOM), PANZER (SIX POSTS ALL GAME), OR GHOSTWRITER (LURKLURKLURK)

GW is dead and was pretty obvtown anyway - PAY ATTENTION DUMBASS. Panzer is scummy but myko is scummier. UA I'm pondering - if he's a survivor and we have 2 scum, we have to lynch him or a scumbag today. If he's lying scum, lynching him is a good thing. I think lynching him is the safe play, but I'm not sold that lynching him is the

correct

play yet. Prozac is always frigging lurky.

Scot was partially a deadline lynch. I wasn't sold on him, but what legit alternatives were left when I voted him? Yeah I'm not sad he was dead - some of the shit he said

was

scummy. But that wasn't the key reason for lynching him, I'd have been much happier with a myko lynch.

[Shanba]

If we have 3 scum it's already over, as scum can just vote whoever and get UA to hammer. So I'm fairly certain we don't have 3 scum.

Flava flave suddenly started attacking MBF out of nowhere yesterday. The assumption that he was simply concentrating on your List of Execution could be an explanation for where the attack on MBF came from - that he had not mentioned him because it was not necessary on a day where the king had said he wasn't dying - except that a lot of the points he was making came from before your LoE and he never mentioned them then.

Also, his points about buddying are silly and i still don't understand the distinction he's making between the different karen votes.

Myko's contributions are ok, I guess. The psychotherapist claim does nothing for me - incidentally, can we get some flavour on that?

[Shanba]

I meant to explain that far earlier, btw. The vote was originally sans reasons to fish for reactions, but I forgot the followup part.

Also, I remember why I had stopped voting panzer now! Thank you jd! I was p. much convinced the kidnapping was a scum thing yesterday anyway - what sort of town role stops people speaking?

[Shanba]

I was not unhappy with a scot lynch. He was not my first choice, but I was not unhappy. If I had been 100% convinced he was town, or even fairly certain he was town I would not have voted for him.

Also, you are accusing me of ignoring prozac and implying you think this is because you think we're scumbuddies, but then you vote me rather than prozac. Do you honestly think I'm scummier than him? Cause tbh, I think that's kinda ridiculous. Generally I can feel how pro-town I look and right now though I'm not super super town like I'd like to be I'm somewhere around the 50% mark I'd estimate.

[Shanba]

Vote: UA

Two scenarios:
1a) we leave him alive and mislynch. In this case, we lose, assuming two scum.
1b) we leave him alive and lynch correctly. We go to tomorrow in the same situation - 1 survivor, 1 scum, 3 townies

2a) we lynch him. He's scum and we're smiling.
2b) we lynch him. He's a survivor and we go to tomorrow in an equivalent situation to 1b

All this is assuming two scum. If we have one scum, we get one mislynch then we're in the same situation. If we have three scum, then we've already lost - it's just a case of scum logging on and putting someone at l-1, and ua playing to his wincon hammers for a scum/survivor victory. So we can discount that.

UA is either survivor or scum, and both are equivalent for endgame purposes.

[Shanba]

hi!

Silence for x days after thread open is not good, but at least it means SL will miss less, I suppose.

This is a 2am prod response post.

[Shanba]

Setup speculation time!

We're down to 5 players or 4 players here. A scumteam of 2 could have voted no lynch and forced a win from here, therefore I'm going to discount that possibility. Last scum is hence almost certainly a serial killer, and we probably only have one killing group left - though it's possible that we have two, as the circumstances surrounding the death of mbf make it plausible that there's a daykilling sk out there and that scot was blocked. Eh. It's kinda iffy though as a theory. 1 Sk is my base assumption.

What's more, I think we should massclaim today. My basic rule is massclaim the day before lylo as that gives time to force a win in the case of counterclaims or multiple cleareds.

Myko is my top suspect. He came in and straight up voted me without eliminating the possibility that we were in straight up lylo? LOLWUT?

((Prozac I didn't catch any busses that night, I had a bunch of assignments to do. I did go to the supermarket at around 1 am, but I walked there, and although it's in the direction of north bridge it's still some ways off.)

[Shanba]

Calling it right now - Prozac/Myko

Vote: Mykonian

Any non-myko scum team has had plenty of time to hammer by now.

[Shanba]

Don't be a moron, prozac. You really think this setup was 1 cult 1 sk? In that case, what's up with the jailkeeping? Sks don't tend to have that kind of shit up their sleeves.

You'd be much better off bussing in this case.

[Shanba]

cay don't worry this is easy:

The facts:
- Panzer is cleared.
- Panzer is voting for myko
- There are almost certainly two scum
- no scum has hammered myko

CONCLUSION

myko is scum.

In the unlikely scenario that he isn't scum, then there is only one scum. In that case, we can't lose by hammering him.

On the other hand, if you hammer me, then we lose outright. If you think I'm scum, the correct way to play it is to hammer myko and then lynch me tomorrow. But I'm pretty damn confident that won't happen - it's prozac/myko.

(I suppose it oculd also be just Prozac, but that's a bridge we can cross tomorrow if it gets that far).

[Shanba]

Prozac, you're always fricking drunk and raving about shit. I completely missed the inventor crumb. Yes, that probably clears you.

I did indeed receive a box last night.

[Shanba]

gg wp

[Shanba]

The last day when we'd already won (panzer was doubly cleared) and were just waiting for the win either today or tomorrow was pretty dull. Otherwise, a fairly decent game - it was great that the vig gave us a chance to off him (I was originally wary of getting on that wagon, but he kept digging the hole deeper and deeper and I gave in to the the temptation eventually - I figured that if he lived, we were probably virtually screwed anyway. Kill-immune vig is unbelievable powerful.). With the cult dead and the scary as fuck virtually invincible vig IWINBUTTON role dead, it was always going to be fairly smooth from there.

We communicated by AIM, but I saved all our convos in a qt if anyone cares.

[Shanba]

5. The kidnapper was the single most imbalanced role in the game

*cough* nk immune vig