Mini 1051: Utopia Mafia - Game Over

[VP Baltar]

Vote: ani

Sucks to be you.

Not familiar with source material.

[VP Baltar]

Unvote, Vote: Exe

I like challenges and all, but that was a damn scummy suggestion. There's my thought on it.

[VP Baltar]

challenges as in, Exe just outted himself as scum...just realized that could be read differently

[VP Baltar]

Fine with my vote. There's my reply, Exe.

Also, after we lynch you and you flip scum, I deserve a medal for quickest scum outing evva.

[VP Baltar]

VP - what do you think Exe was expecting to gain from that if he is scum, bearing in mind the playerlist?

What do you propose Exe knows about the playerlist?

[VP Baltar]

The same thing everyone knows. The other players in the game.

Answer the question.

Actually my point is quite relevant. Shanba is implying that the player list is "too good" or whatever for Exe to try something so stupid. However, such a proposition hinges on Exe knowing the player list and having the same assumption that players are "too good" to fall for it. It's already obvious that Exe doesn't know who I am, so my question was certainly within the bounds of reason.

[VP Baltar]

Also, I'm voting for Exe

First vote count!

Reality now reflects your claims - Omod

[VP Baltar]

Yay, triple post of coffee drinking and putting off work!

DDD - how was your hiatus from MS? How many games have you played in since you've been back? Do you feel you've changed your approach to the game at all?

[VP Baltar]

re: join dates - I personally don't feel that's indicative of skill level. There are people in this game that have much older join dates than me, but I've never played with them and therefore cannot judge whether they are "good" or "bad" at mafia. However, I suppose it's feasible that a newer player may judge people in this manner.

I'm simply going to ask you how you can possibly think that is scummy?

Well, early game and all. Things have to start somewhere and I'm generally not the type of person to piddle around with "maybes" and "could be"s. Whether it is a stupid plan that is destined to fail (and you're correct about that), it is certainly a plan that benefits scum more than town. Therein lies my issue with it. I've played more than one game where the scum suggested we game the setup as a way to detract from actual scumhunting. I'm ashamed to say that at times as town I've even agreed with this process. Now, Exe didn't exactly present his plan in well thought out manner, so of course it's unlikely to succeed. But the end sum remains that if his plan were to be followed, it would almost certainly benefit the scum more. True or false?

Is this a damning case against Exe? Most likely not. However, stating so doesn't really do much to add pressure, now does it? Fishy seemed to catch on to the right idea and added pressure for pressure's sake and now we have Exe trying to use semantics to worm his way out of his comparison post instead of just saying, 'ok, logic fail.'

tl;dr - as of page two, I think Exe is still worth voting.

[VP Baltar]

Agreeing with something DNE parroting.

Also, if you don't think I'm town, then put your vote down instead of prancing around it for several posts like you're doing now.

[VP Baltar]

No setting yourself up for accolades tomorrow. We're not working like that. You're coming across more likely as someone trying to push an efficient bus on a stupid partner than you are coming across as someone who should YEAH BE REWARDED.

lol, bussing on page two for no explicable reason? cool.

Did he say that it would be indicative of skill level? He said experience.

Pretty sure he was saying that a noob would look at join dates and assume a certain level of skill...but if I'm wrong then Shanba can clarify what exactly he meant. If not, then we're talking about two different things altogether because that's what I was referring to.

f you think someone is scum, vote for them. If you think the person is scum AND you think the rest of town is unlikely to follow you, it's your duty as a townie to explain what you see and convince others to vote for the scum you found. The whole "I think he is scum, but I won't vote because nobody else believes me" line of reasoning is BS and anti-town.

+1

The earlier suggestion had two purposes: to garner reactions and to get us out of the RVS. The contradiction with my current opinions is because the earlier (like most of my actions) was a way to get reactions.

What reactions have you garnered now that you've finished with that? Have you come to any conclusions?

What little pressure it put would most likely give me the reaction of VPB calling OMGUS, regardless of whether he is town or scum, so voting him will not help me read him at the moment.

Blah blah blah. Do you think I'm scummy or not? All this sounds like is, "I'm worried how people will react"...which pardon me, but is not a town mindset.

When I voted you, I was well aware that people would say, "oh come on VP, that's such crap logic," but I don't really care because I'm town and even if I did get lynched my cold dead hand would certainly be pointing to some scum somewhere. I'll get you from beyond the graaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave!

[VP Baltar]

I like how you still haven't answered the question in this post.

Seemed answered to me. I don't understand what's unclear. It was a faulty question to begin with, which I pointed out. Then when an answer was demanded (ooo scary), I answered said faulty question anyhow. If you want more, you're going to have to get specific.

VPB does agree rather than parrot. Not that I'm too keen on that either, but still.

Well, I'll warn you now. There are going to be times in this game when I agree with other people. I know it's a crazy concept on the internetz and all, but it happens. You should probably prepare yourself now.

This reply seems pretty off to me. If anything, I'd say JD has a semi-respectable point, and certainly warrants more of a response than this.

No, it really doesn't. It's a pretty dumb argument to make actually, as it rarely happens. My response was more than sufficient. If Exe is lynched and flips scum, you're damn right I'll take credit for it.

[VP Baltar]

your post 61 suggests that you think Exe is very likely scum

orly? do tell. Quotes from 61 are acceptable.

we're talking about a level of skill high enough to know that the suggested plan is a bad one, which I would argue nearly all players of two to three years mafia experience would have.

But my point is: does Exe know this? Not: does Shanba know this?

I guess it's null now anyhow since Exe is claiming it was for reactions anyhow. Hmm, interesting thought, so Shanba how do you resolve Exe going for reactionlulz with his policy lynch proposition when you think he's aware enough to know that the plan in reality would not happen? Doesn't the experience of the player list also suggest that such an obviously bad plan would not garner any useful reactions?

Preview edit:

This chance is high enough that Exe flipping scum should not be considered "proof" that you are a townie. I'm not sure what kind of response Flameaxe is expecting (what can someone do other than deny the actuality of that possibility?), but it does not seem like you are acknowledging any possibility of an early scum bus.

Oh, they happen. I'm not entirely denying it. I'm simply saying that the form they are proposing is 1) unlikely 2) shitty play as scum. I tend to try not not playing shittily, but they're entitled to believe as they like.

How likely do you think it is that scum could/would bus in this game?

I don't necessarily agree with you that the setup gives that much incentive to scum to bus. Just as policy lynching a potential town member doesn't give that much benefit to the town. You're still losing a team member in that situation and making your life harder. So, if I had to quantify it, I would say that maybe scum would bus earlier in this setup, but I highly doubt it would be from page 2.

Is bussing a strategy you employ as scum (examples appreciated but not necessary)?

Not heavily, no. I think the most I ever bussed was in Vi's Mafia at the 11th Hour and that was really only because my partners gave up on the first day. If you look at that game though, you can see that I repeatedly tried to give my partners outs. I'm the type that only busses if it's absolutely necessary to keep the scum team alive.

[VP Baltar]

Not underlined: The part I feel is still not adequately discussed from you.

I answered pretty clearly what his intentions as scum would have been in post 45. Here, I shall quote to make it easier for you:

Whether it is a stupid plan that is destined to fail (and you're correct about that), it is certainly a plan that benefits scum more than town. Therein lies my issue with it. I've played more than one game where the scum suggested we game the setup as a way to detract from actual scumhunting. I'm ashamed to say that at times as town I've even agreed with this process. Now, Exe didn't exactly present his plan in well thought out manner, so of course it's unlikely to succeed. But the end sum remains that if his plan were to be followed, it would almost certainly benefit the scum more. True or false?

Which actually wasn't rhetorical and was never replied to...but whatever.

Clarification: Agreeing is fine, excessively agreeing and using said agreement as a way to push a lynch is bad. In some ways I see this, which is why I said it was "not as much parroting as it is agreeing, not something I'm keen on". Clarification success?

Do you think I've been "excessively agreeing" with people this game? I'd argue that I haven't.

I forgot the part where YOU know what I feel is off. My bad, brah. This post just makes you seem like an arrogant twat, and an idiotic one at that. You can take as much credit for an Exe scum flip, that doesn't make you in any way cleared of bussing. Simply replying to any possible point of bussing with "Nuh uh, that's stupid", (which is an exaggerated simplification of your post, but gives the exact same impact) is not sufficient

Well, in fairness, it is a really weak point. How likely do you think it would be for scum to bus each other hard from page 2? Do you think the benefits so outweigh losing a player from the start? If you do think that, why did you disagree with Exe's policy lynch of Ani? Wouldn't "bussing" a town player benefit the town just as much as it would the scum doing it to one of their own? I stand by my point that intentionally losing a player for no reason other than to (potentially) gain powers is a sum loss game and a terribly weak argument to accuse me of. Yes? No? Maybe so?

[VP Baltar]

Slap fight is meh.

"It rarely happens" is not a defense, it's an appeal to made-up, unsubstantiated and unseen numbers. You're coming across as self-interested, which is generally not a good thing™

Or it rarely happens. I don't need statistics to prove that scum don't often bus each other from page 2. I think the onus is on you to prove ridiculous arguments, not on me to disprove them. So, yeah.

I've done it before when I felt that said scum partner would be more of a liability than an asset.

Example(s) of you bussing from page 2. Please. Also, I'm not you. BTW. FYI.

your extreme self-interest

I don't understand your point really other than trying to use buzzwords. I stated that your argument was highly illogical for me as scum. It takes a great deal of hyperbole to turn that into "extreme self-interest" by any stretch of the imagination.

You're also warping the point to one about gaining powers, which I at very least never mentioned nor even thought of.

It was brought up by Kast (iirc), not you. Try reading the thread prior to typing.

Would you say that the scum in these games genuinely believed that they were going to be able to slip their scum-favouring plan past the town? Based on the second sentence, at least some of these plans must have been halfway feasible.

Well, yes, obviously scum are going to try things they think will slip past. I get what you're saying, but (and this is sort of what I was getting at with Shanba) it requires an assumption about Exe's notions on the player list, which in my opinion could go either way.

Exe, prior to the start of this game, how many of the people had you played with? Did you know of anyone by reputation alone? Did you look at the join dates of the players before the game and assume everyone was more experienced than you?

Yes, but with the added qualification that setting yourself up to create such false proof is not a good thing™.

You know, just for reference so people can see how hyperbolic you're being, let's look at what I actually said.

Also, after we lynch you and you flip scum, I deserve a medal for quickest scum outing evva.

Based on this sentence, I was clearly so over the top trying to buy town points in my fourth post of the game that I have summarily outted myself as scum. That is the actual argument you are trying to push here? On a scale of 1-10, how serious do you think I was being when I wrote this?

mod: please prod with great vengeance and furious anger all of those people who are deserving.

[VP Baltar]

Why is a much better question than what for the sort of reasoning that goes into a mafia game, don't you think?

In some cases, certainly. However, what also serves its purpose. My point is that you largely ignore what altogether, which I guess is what you think is good scum hunting. I fundamentally disagree with that. ie, saying things doesn't make them true. Evidence is helpful.

re: page 2 bussing - yes, I'm claiming it is a fact...though a self-evident one. I'm sure if I went to any queue and looked at the first 20 completed games in it, few if any would have scum that bussed each other from page 2. If the majority thinks this is necessary to prove my point, then I guess I could labor myself with doing it. However, it should be fairly self-evident that this is the case just from general experience without unnecessary legwork. You're clutching to an argument that's basically hot smoke.

@Eldarad - is that the only point from Kast's play that bothers you?

[VP Baltar]

I feel the early bussing argument has reached the point of diminishing returns at this point. Most everyone has stated their opinion now. If we lynch scum today, we can discuss the likelihood of a bus tomorrow. For now, I think we should concentrate on finding the scum today.

@ Erg0 - Do you feel Kast's statement was saying scum are

likely

to bus this game or just more likely to bus than in a standard game?

[VP Baltar]

I'll prolly pay extra attention to VPB. Right now the strongest impression I have from this game is that VPB has been pushing an "anti-town = scummy" train despite being a good enough (and cynical enough) to know that's not any more true or likely than "anti-town = bad/weak player".

This is only in regards to my comments about Exe?

I don't feel this squares very well with his earlier post on the matter (45) - in that, I got the impression that VP very much thought his vote was legitimate, and that doesn't tie in very well with thinking people would call it crap logic. I also just don't see what this passage is doing in his post at all, except to say "I don't care how I look! Isn't that townie of me?".

Just because I think something is legit doesn't mean other people will. I actually have a long track record (read: most every game I'm town and play aggressively) where I push on something in the early game and then towns go 'OMG that is so not scumhunting Vote:VPB'. It's the natural ebb and flow of things and it doesn't really bother me because more often than not, I'm right about what I'm pushing. So, that's how it's reconciled. Re: the reason for that line - I was pointing out that Exe was more conscious of how he was being perceived than he was about hunting scum. I was using myself as an example of what I expect town play to be. If you're reading the quote in context with Exe's post, it should be quite clear what the message was there.

re: semantics - I stand by what I said. The way he had to keep clarifying what he was saying reminded me a lot of this Open Bird7 I played not too long ago with Charter. Charter pegged me as scum over something small day one, and he pushed on it but I just went back and made some quotes fit my argument. Charter basically didn't have much of an argument when he was done because I had eventually justified what I said well enough, but the point was that he was right. Words are very pliable in the right hands, and I got that vibe from Exe. Maybe I'm being biased about it, but I still say that I could be right.

@VP: in addition to any comments you have on the above, who do you think is scum atm?

Honestly, it's hard to say right now. I feel like everyone but myself, Flameaxe and possibly Exe are playing an extremely guarded game. Everyone's too afraid to put their opinions really out there or have ideas different from the mob mentality. Right now I would say Shanba feels odd, but I can't really quantify why and I really don't have enough playing experience with him. I feel like I've asked him several questions that he's basically ignored, but I need to go back and read to see if that's true or not. Kast and Erg0 feel somewhat town to me on initial reactions. You, DDD and JDodge are pretty much playing to how I would expect at this point regardless of alignment.

Everyone else is basically not posting the thread...so, yeah. Fine with my vote where it is until people start playing and putting themselves out there a bit so I can actually develop some better reads.

[VP Baltar]

Your lack of decisiveness is noted. But:
Hop on the Erg0 wagon -- scum lynch is a go.

I'm rather confused what you're trying to attack eldarad about here. So, because he doesn't like the Baltar or Exe wagons he's being indecisive? I'm not sure wanting a different wagon falls into the category of indecisiveness.

he's [Kast] preparing to move on to the VP wagon which I am convincing myself is probably just an enticing townie lynch

Why do you think this now?

What I'm getting at is that I can't reconcile your claim that it's just an early game wagon with some of the rhetoric you've been spouting.

Actually, what you said was:

your post 61 suggests that you think Exe is very likely scum

Which, doesn't really jive at all with what I said in post 61 (which you just quoted above). That's why I wanted you to quote specifically whatever you were getting at...I didn't see that at all when I reread 61. Now you're saying you're just speaking generally about "some of the rhetoric" I've said. Why did you refer to post 61 specifically if you were only speaking generally?

Additionally for you Shanba:

Hmm, interesting thought, so Shanba how do you resolve Exe going for reactionlulz with his policy lynch proposition when you think he's aware enough to know that the plan in reality would not happen? Doesn't the experience of the player list also suggest that such an obviously bad plan would not garner any useful reactions?

I don't think that was answered...though maybe I missed it.

if anything I wanted to give the impression I found it more damning than I really did, because I felt the pressure I was applying was useful.

Is this something you typically do? Do you find this to be a useful tool for the town in outting scum early?

[VP Baltar]

@VPB (and sort of at eldarad):
Seriously? Eldarad is "looking elsewhere" but hasn't actually found anything else to pursue. He is not favoring my wagon, and yet his posts ignore most other people. We have 6 pages of rich content, he should be able to give us an actual suspect not "I'm looking elsewhere."

Eh. I think "rich content" is a bit of an exaggeration honestly. I agree that he needs to probably start pressuring someone soon, but I also feel that there isn't a ton to go on yet. 25% of the game isn't posting seriously yet and another 50% is being rather guarded with how they are pursuing this game. It's just where the chips are at right now, imo.

[VP Baltar]

I try to go after someone quite hard towards the beginning of a game. If I can find a really good reason for going after them, great. If not, I'm happy to plump for a mediocre reason, and push it harder than it would deserve later in the game (though I'm almost certain I've never pushed something I don't find a scumtell). I have to admit that I haven't analysed the outcomes of this approach - I'm really still relying on what I believe should happen. I think people will react more to cases on them that look serious, and that other people will tend to comment on them more. It's a fairly obvious idea, really - early cases are almost bound to be weak, because there's not much information around. But admitting they are weak just tells the wagonee not to worry.

Kind of curious why you were up my arse for pressuring Exe then. You said that you were confused why I was having any kind of doubts about my case when my early rhetoric was strongly worded, right?

[VP Baltar]

Unvote, Vote: Shanba

[VP Baltar]

We could policy lynch him! *rimshot*

[VP Baltar]

No need for that. Shanba wagon is very win. Erg0 should come over actually...or at least give his thoughts on it.

I wish I could file a permanent prod request on ani so he just gets one every day he doesn't post, but meh.

Also, Eldarad...what's up hommie? You sort of dropped off the face of the earth there. I'd like to hear more talking from you since your slot was basically AWOL for quite some time.

[VP Baltar]

Do I owe you any answers?

Not that I'm aware, just want some general opinions.

[VP Baltar]

Shanba wagon is very win. Erg0 should come over actually...or at least give his thoughts on it.

How's that lurk coming JD?

[VP Baltar]

The issue is your entire point only proves it is unlikely, not impossible. I like unlikely. Scum like to do unlikely things for them, it's how you work the site meta.

I'm not ignoring what, but evidence is pointless in the long-term; speculation is the only main tool of the town.

This is barely coherent and starting to be pretty irrelevant to the game at this point. Do you have an actual conclusion or were you just arguing because you thought I was being too decisive?

However,

Would you say he's more potato or pancake?

Thank you for reviving this.

Mod: Please replace ani. If you aren't going to replace him, I honestly ask that you prod him every day he doesn't post. I will request this prod if necessary.

Jesus, this game is getting quite irritating at this point.

JD - What do you think of Shanba's play so far this game? You hinted earlier that he was feeling slightly off I think, do you have a town, neutral or scum read on him at this point?

et tu rude boy- Let's see this rudeness in action. I see you on site, but I see no posting. That's being a wimp. Start a fight.

Ani- DIAF.

DDD - Help me get some life in this game. I know day one isn't your thing, but it's time to get a good wagon moving.

eldarad - Still need some more.

Erg0 - I still want to hear your Shanba thoughts asap.

Exe - I think I've heard enough out of you for today. Probably not today's lynch.

Fishy - What do you make of the Kast/JD exchange? Pick a winner.

Shanba - What do you make of JD's lynch a lurker plan? Do you think that's a good course for today?

[VP Baltar]

Hi Ray, welcome to the game. Good to play with you again finally.

JD - What do you think of Shanba's play so far this game? You hinted earlier that he was feeling slightly off I think, do you have a town, neutral or scum read on him at this point?

Additionally, why the fuck are you voting Exe?

[VP Baltar]

omg I should not ignore this game as wall posts pile up. sigh. I'll try to read up here now.

[VP Baltar]

I suggest you truly look at the "reasoning" for everyone on this Shanba wagon, it's horrifically weak. Tunnel vision? Really? Try better. VP's reason, from what I can tell, is that the wagon is "very win". DDD: Correct arguments, flimsy "subreasoning", no elaboration.

You need to learn to read between the lines. My basic feeling about Shanba is that he was really treading water this game until just recently when the wagon formed on him. We're now seeing life in him with Kast...but even that's kind of a subpar case. Maybe it's because I have experience with Kast, but walls of questions from him that don't seem very guided are kind of his thing. He like lots of information piled up in the thread that he can later reference. I think even a cursory meta of him shows this. I think Shanba isn't really the type of player you can say "XYZ is the case, vote now!" because he's too careful. I think it was Hell Aboard the Purple Flower I played with him as scum and really the only reason he was outted as scum was a cop investigation. It's gut feeling with Shanba and I'm not liking it this game. Do you think he's played a very town game so far?

I'd still like an Erg0 wagon.

His continued absence in this thread may win me over to your side sooner rather than later. Stay tuned!

[VP Baltar]

I was not referring to the "very win" post. That was obviously a joking jab at him. Iso me, press Crtl+F, type "Shanba" in the little box. Read what I've said. Read the debates I've had with him. I'm telling you, something's not right about him. By read between the lines, I did not mean literally look for subtext in every sentence everyone posts. Your hyperbole is silly. I meant read between the lines of what Shanba is posting. Is he really saying much? Is he pushing things the way you'd expect him to.

Of course, I had assumed you had played with him since you're older and seem to have some kind of history with JD, but apparently that assumption was wrong.

[VP Baltar]

VP, Kast: you both seem to be intent on riding me as hard as you can, so can you give an actual, single statement on your opinions on me at this point in time so that I don't have to continue to wade through the swirling morass of rotting vegetation that is this game right now, thanks

What the fuck are you talking about? I've barely mentioned you in any kind of serious suspicion. I called you out for lurking...which you were doing. Feel free to explain where you get the vibe that I'm "riding [you] as hard as

can".

[VP Baltar]

you never mentioned me whatsoever aside from arguing against me

Well, in reality, you've begun 99% of any arguments I've been engaged in with you. Frankly, I don't really care about you at this point. You're playing the game I expect you to play right now...which really says nothing about your alignment. Hence the reason I haven't said all that much about it.

My interest is quite piqued that you feel I've been "riding your ass" though, as that seems a gross exaggeration. Also, the game has been about a limited number of people because those are the only people who have been contributing with any kind of frequency. What am I going to comment on about people that lurk for 5 or more days at a time?

Anyhow, I find your 'get yer asses' in gear to be quite dull and hypocritical considering you've done next to nothing to lead the town anywhere productive. Then again, your vote has repeatedly been on the same 3-4 people town is focused on without giving a shit about anyone else.

Meh.

Anywhoo

Unvote, Vote: Erg0

[VP Baltar]

What is preventing Shanba from posting? Nothing as far as I know.

[VP Baltar]

Eh, I saw it DDD. Not entirely sold on it though. It could have simply been JD being a wimp in calling people scum...which people do as either town or scum. That and some people just have problem with verb tenses.

@Ergo - At what stage would you join the Shanba wagon? We're hurdling toward the deadline here...

[VP Baltar]

Kast is correct that we need a claim soon. I am willing to lynch Erg0 or Shanba at this point. Either one can save himself by posting something that is actually proactive about finding scum. Consider my vote on either one atm. Everyone else needs to either get on one of these wagons or converge on something else. L-1 is claim time. Let's get there.

[VP Baltar]

Bloody hell, just put someone to L-1 already so we can get a claim and think about it. People dawdling at deadline are likely scum. If your vote is somewhere useless atm, move it in your next post. I don't care if you haven't read the thread and don't have a great reason. Get it in gear.

[VP Baltar]

DDD, are you willing to go for a Shanba lynch today? If so, my vote is going there and it's claim time.

[VP Baltar]

OK, well I think that seals it then.

Shanba, get in here and claim.

[VP Baltar]

Yo JD, where's your boy at?

[VP Baltar]

Well, reading the flavor references Oman provided, there are light and dark elves in the game. Shanba's claim is believable enough, but it'd also be easy enough to fake at this point if you're a dark elf and not have the risk of being countered. Plus established protocal says lynch the 'nilla.

Unvote, Vote: Shanba

[VP Baltar]

He did claim 'nilla for this setup. lrd2read.

Additionally, what do you think is most important to consider about a claim that is nothing but flavor? What factors are you using to evaluate it? I've covered anything that is important about it.

[VP Baltar]

[insert snark here]

What I'm trying to do in reading through this is figure out connections of shanba to anybody else before the lynch to keep in mind (reasons for voting/not voting, you know... the usual stuff). I'm still going to vote him, but I want everybody's opinion on the claim before going yaylynch.

Actually, what you said was 'dunno about the claim, gotta reread', implying that you had some uncertainty about what he was claiming. There was nothing there to imply you're looking at connections. Then you followed that up by saying I was essentially not considering the claim enough. Now you're saying it's not about the claim, but about the connections. Well, which is it? Why did you have such an issue with what I said about his claim? What is your actual opinion of it?

[VP Baltar]

@Ray

Utopia Mafia is based on an analysis I ran a while back about the difference between individual and team play. In Utopia mafia, the game may start out with not a lot of power either side, but as one side starts to lose members and become closer to defeat, they become more and more powerful. Would you knowingly lynch a team-mate to increase powerroles for the rest of your team?

My general impression is that most everyone has the

potential

to gain a power. Hence why I'm saying Shanba's vanilla in the context of this game. I find your explanation convoluted at best, but I guess we can deal with that tomorrow.

[VP Baltar]

It wasn't the leading wagon, as so delicately demonstrated by your vote count. Additionally, I've been OG Shanba lynch since back in the day. *gang signs*

[VP Baltar]

I wouldn't put so much stock in flavor and role PM wording. Any mod worth their salt is going to mess with that a bit to keep people guessing. What IS important here is the attempt to save Shanba while Shanba is AWOL. Unfortunately, I still think JD and Flameaxe are probably town. Rayfrost and a2rudeboy, I'm not so sure about. Ray is coming across as REALLY fake with all of his internal debating and continual confidence in whoever is the leading wagon atm.

Also, Wednesday is deadline, so people need to get in here and start posting.

[VP Baltar]

fencesitting is not a superior playstyle to lynching people you think are scum. I understand having doubts, but only the scum know what a lynch will turn. Frankly, all this middling makes it look like you're uncertain if you want to save a scumbuddy or bus. I'm quite interested to see how today's lynch turns out after such a show of dramatics.

What's going on rudeboy? Awfully quiet.

Preview edit: I agree with JD.

[VP Baltar]

There are elves and dark elves in Utopia, but one isn't good and the other evil, as the concepts don't exist.

I don't know the games. So, I can only go on what I read:

Dark Elves - Subterranean counterpart of the Elves, the Dark Elves are also known for their magical abilities and are

evil individuals that like suffering and pain

.

---

We're essentially playing a semi-open role game and Shanba is claiming something that contradicts the open part of semi-open.

I disagree. I don't think this is a semi-open setup other than we know good stuff happens to the losing faction. My point is that you're saying Shanba's role PM has to be in agreement with the PM in the OP, and I'm saying no it doesn't necessarily. Also, Shanba said that he

thinks

his role could be some kind of doctor, not that it's guaranteed. That was my interpretation anyhow.

Regardless, let's lynch him and find out.

[VP Baltar]

The consistent wanting to lynch a potential doctor is stupid guys. Vague role or not, its a terrible idea. Come on. It's pretty clear Shanba doesn't have the same PM as the rules post, does that make him scum? No. It makes him not a vanilla townie. I don't see what's so hard to comprehend here.

You know what's stupid, lynching Exe when he was fucking obvious town. But it's cool, the way the scum came in to push that lynch through to save Shanba makes me even more confident in my read.

I am voting for Exe because I have very little reason to believe his claim is true, and much more reason to believe Shanba's. It's that simple.

lol, what? What reason do you have to believe Shanba over Exe in terms of the claim? You're either an idiot or scum.

@VPB-
Shanba said his role PM states he can protect against thieves and magic. He did not make a flavor guess or interpretation or anything like that; he claims his actual role PM states a game mechanic of being able to protect others when things get bad for town.

It makes no sense to tell one individual player that he would gain a specific power, but not tell that to anyone else and to publicly share that people will not be specifically informed beyond what they can guess from the source link.

I suppose. Regardless, we know now that Shanba is prob scum from the way this last minute Exe train came through and Shanba basically lurked his ass off to avoid being lynched. It's a good thing we're probably going to get some power because this town isn't going to outwit anyone anytime soon.

[VP Baltar]

lol, what? What reason do you have to believe Shanba over Exe in terms of the claim? You're either an idiot or scum.

The fact that no one in this game can pick up on anything at all is astounding. Kast's representation of the town PM is incorrect people. Learn it. Live it. Figure it out.

I didn't agree with his interpretation. Read the thread. Nor was I even fucking talking about Kast. I asked you when you are comparing Exe's claim to Shanba's, what grounds do you have to believe Shanba over Exe? Feel free to answer this time.

[VP Baltar]

I find that dubious, but whatever. Day is over.

[VP Baltar]

Shanba has a small penis apparently. Or Erg0 has a huge one. I'm not sure. Let's lynch Shanba and find out.

[VP Baltar]

Actually, I'd like to start somewhere else for a moment.

Vote: Ray Frost

[VP Baltar]

I wasn't really reading that back and forth between Kast, you and Flameaxe (iirc) at the end of the day. Seemed like a whole lot of nothing to me. I'm more concerned with how you flipflopped on the Shanba issue at the end of the day. There is obviously scum on the Exe wagon and you're at the top of my list in that department.

[VP Baltar]

@ray - I think eldarad stinks too, for sure. You probably are not both scum. I will reread the stuff at the end of the day yesterday now that we have more information and I'll get back to you if I feel your flips were credible or not. Vote stays for now though.

[VP Baltar]

Early claim = scum.

Lynch

[VP Baltar]

@Ergo - I find your interpretation of my two posts starting the day interesting. I voted Ray before his scumslip of claiming under no pressure. What about that post made you think I wanted to lynch him over Shanba at that time? All I had said was that I wanted to try something different for a moment. I don't believe that's really committing that hard to a Ray wagon. Do you feel it was?

[VP Baltar]

OK, so I just reread the game from like page 15 to now to try and get a better grasp on the end of the day stuff and the general shape of things. Some points I would like to make based on this reread:

1) Somewhere in Kast's giant posts about claiming and how Shanba's PM didn't jive with the OP, he was actually making sense. What he was stating was that VT pms do not indicate specifically what a player could become. Shanba said the flavor of his pm indicated he could be a protective role of some kind. He did not say that he arrived at this conclusion by reading about his race in the ancillary material, which is what Exe was doing. Shanba said 'when the shit hits the fan, my flavor hits that I become a doc'. To believe this, one needs to believe that Shanba has a different VT pm from everyone else. I think it is

possible

that Oman could have sent multiple variations of a VT pm out, but I also find it somewhat unlikely.

2) Eldarad needs to explain what is exactly wrong with the breadcrumb Exe pointed to and why it was scummy. I've had enough of this vaguery BS. Also, I would like to hear why Shanba's claim was so believable and who your current scum suspects are. All you talked about yesterday was Kast (who you voted in your second post of the game) and then you suddenly hammered Exe. Here's a newsflash, Kast is town. Move on and do something relevant because you just look like scum who is tunneled and let a bad hammer fall yesterday.

3) While I am essentially certain Kast is town, I do agree with JD that it's time for you to stop suspecting every single person who says a word against you, Kast. Not everyone can be scum. You've made some very good points at times, but we don't need to get distracted pushing arguments that aren't really that scummy and definitely aren't going somewhere productive.

4) Erg0, the more this game goes on, the less I am liking your play. You started off well enough but your mix of lurking, pushing weak cases and refusing to answer simple questions is steadily sending you spiraling down on my scum list. You could have and should have answered Exe's question yesterday. To argue that it was a fallacy that assumed you were wrong was avoidance plain and simple. Additionally, your Fishy vote because he's not pursuing you hard enough is ridiculous. Given the ending of yesterday, it is perfectly logical why Fishy would look elsewhere first. First, you have Shanba who was most likely saved in a moment of desperation by the scum. Second, you have Eldarad and Ray who were both flip flopping for little to no reason just to get on the Exe wagon. While your argument for his lynch was pretty poor, at least you clutched onto it for long enough to not look as obviously scum as the previous three.

5) Why the hell am I the only person who ever mentions a2rudeboy's name in thread? He's a dumb lurking twat. Feel free to call him one.

6) Flameaxe is an idiot. Whatever you are assuming about role PMs, I'm quite certain you are wrong. Shut up about it. I preferred it when you were actually trying to scumhunt because you trying to game the game is obviously fail.

Right now, the following players are essentially locked town in my book barring an investigation:
DDD
Fishy
Kast
JD

Neutral people that are probably just playing poorly
Flameaxe

Scumbags and various other detritus that needs to be lynched or vigged
Shanba
Eldarad
Ray Frost
Erg0
a2rudeboy



I view yesterday as a pretty large boon for the town, even if it did end in the incorrect lynch. Scum fucked up trying to save Shanba, as he's now become dead weight and he's going to bring the rest of you down with him. This sort of makes me believe that the scum are less experience than Shanba, as they may have wanted to save their best strategist. Of course, looking at my scum list, only Erg0 is really close to more experienced, so this assumption is likely correct. Right now I'm leaning toward a Shanba lynch for the day because it pretty obv. needs to happen before the end of the game. I would like everyone to state if the agree or disagree with my list of town/scum and also state who they'd prefer to lynch or vig today.

@Ray - do you think this town would have really power lynched you while you were asleep?

[VP Baltar]

@Fishy - yes I realize. What I"m saying is that Shanba did not claim a power role though. He claimed VT. The people claiming other PMs, JD for instance, had a PR to begin with that then changed. Shanba claimed VT with potential to change...which isn't really a PR if you ask me. So, unless we believe there are two different VT PMs out there, I don't really believe he's telling the truth.

@ Ray - Can I get a few examples of you making similar knee jerk reactions in the past?

[VP Baltar]

Alright, that is true. I remember that claim and how unnecessary it was. (:P Didn't you learn anything from that game?)

In terms of my DDD town read, I think I'm probably the only person in this game with extensive experience with DDD and all I can say is that this is generally how he plays as town. He doesn't say a ton regardless of alignment, but he's pushing the correct lynches, which is how you can tell he's town. I'm 99 percent certain Shanba will flip scum, and that will essentially validate my read on DDD...so I guess it don't really need to explain my gut read on him too much. I think he's just played completely transparently and hasn't showed any signs of caring about appearing scummy. That's a town mentality. I would never lynch him today and anyone who does is probably going to lose points from me.

Also,

Unvote

I don't know what the vote count is on Shanba at the moment, but I'm pretty certain that is where mine will land after I get replies from everyone on my post.

[VP Baltar]

Lesson is don't claim early unless it's to catch scum. Ever.

[VP Baltar]

Oh, also from the same game, Monkeyman made his claim early and he

was

scum. Maybe you can see where I'm coming from then.

[VP Baltar]

but when it became apparent I wouldn't be lynched a few switched over to Exe instead.

When did that happen exactly? There was plenty of support for your wagon if Ray had not inexplicably switched. Also, where is the promised catch up? Who is scum apart from Kast? If you and exe were both town, why was there so much last minute resistance to your wagon out of left field?

@ JD - PLAY BETTER.

Vote: Shanba

There is no reason obv. scum should not be lynched today.

[VP Baltar]

That's L-3 by my count.

[VP Baltar]

The very obvious reason for the resistance to my wagon is one that it's probably best not to state outright. Consider why jd as town would have been against my wagon for a second (heck, read his recent posts). That's the worst part of the whole terrible saga - the long term consequences for the town.

You don't think he's town though, remember? He's in your top three for scum. Additionally, why would scum push a lynch away from you if you really were telling the truth and could become a doctor. If I was scum, that'd be one less NK I'd have to worry about.

I'm not forcing you to read anything I guess, you had just promised an analysis so I was kind of hoping to see that. What you've given so far, I don't find very compelling. I believe that you really are apathetic toward mafia at this point, but that doesn't really say anything about your alignment.

@Fishy- when I read over JD's stuff, I could understand what he was saying. From what he quoted it did appear like Exe was contradicting himself. I think JD really thought the Shanba wagon was bad and probably has too much of a bias toward him in general. That being said, him now pushing for Kast is quite odd and not helping the town.

[VP Baltar]

What does he have to gain from claiming townie-that-might-turn-into-a-doc over something that would derail his wagon. Like, for instance, doc.

No worry about a counterclaim. No need to come up with fake results. Vague enough that if it got him in trouble he could back out. Those are just for starters.

Look, the point you are missing is that we have a confirmed VT in Exe who said his role PM exactly matched the given PM. On the other hand, we have Shanba who claims VT and has a different role PM, the flavor of which suggests a possible role change in the future. Do you believe there are two different VT role PMs in this game?

I understand that you have a different role PM. However, that is because you started with a power. Shanba did not. They are not the same thing.

I would like to add on that I have much more outside-the-game contact with Shanba than the rest of you. Trust me. He's bored out of his mind with mafia in general based on his comments on unrelated games prior to this one.

Nobody ever said you were lying. I believe you very much. The problem is that there was an obvious attempt made to save Shanba's ass yesterday that makes no sense unless he's scum. Additionally, we have the role PM business. If you go back and actually read what was said instead of having a stick up your ass about it, I think what I'm saying will be clear. A lot went down at the end of the day yesterday and I know from my own experience that rereading that whole series of exchanges adds a lot of clarity in hindsight.

@Fishy - I don't think you are that far out of this game, but rereading from like page 15 on is very helpful imo. I know there are a lot of words and stupid arguments, but read them carefully, especially regarding the role PMs.

[VP Baltar]

I'm not going to argue this point with you anymore.

However, I will ask you what you think Shanba has actively contributed to this thread since it started. I posit that is little to nothing. By your own rule of eliminate useless people, you should want him dead.

@a2rudeboy - Stop being a chump and post. Same goes for you eldarad.

[VP Baltar]

Going to be V/LA for a few days. I'll get to this game when I have time.

[VP Baltar]

Kast v. JD is dumb. You're both town and meanwhile all of the scumz are lurking their asses off. Let's be a bit more productive here.

@Kast (and whoever else) - I do find the existance of (i) and (ii) to be unlikely, however we can put that aside as it probably is irrelevant to the overall effort to save Shanba yesterday.

@JD - The argument you are making that the scum would have avoided the Shanba lynch because it made them "too suspicious" is ridiculous. If you want to make the argument that all of the scum were already on the wagon and that is why they couldn't get it through, then be my guest, but to say that finishing an already popular lynch as opposed to last second derailing it for a VT lynch is more suspicious is quite stupid. Then again, I don't think you can honestly say that the people on the Shanba wagon look like scum because most if not all of them look obv. town.

If an agreement can't be reached, I guess I can live with an eldarad lynch, but Shanba is far superior. His claim is shit and he's quite obviously coasting. He was contributing fine in this game until he started to come under significant suspicion. Now all the sudden the game is boring and he can't find enough motivation to even post on a regular basis (be it with content or not). Meh. Caught scum is caught scum. Lynch.

@a2rudeboy - I'm going to call your name in every single post I make to highlight how much you are lurking. I suggest you post if you'd like to keep your scum cover up.

[VP Baltar]

Magician's don't lie

[VP Baltar]

Only way to tell is by lynching Shanba.

[VP Baltar]

fuckin magnets. They can't be explained. Neither can JD's love for the scumz.

Less JD talk, more talk from people that want to lynch Shanba. Let's see if the scum try to derail it two days in a row.

[VP Baltar]

@shanba - are you even reading the thread any longer?

What about you Flameaxe? yay, nay? Inquiring minds would like to know.

[VP Baltar]

Were the asshats always this terrible at finding scum?

Putting my foot down on this lynch. Shanba needs to die sooner or later. At least DDD sees that and is making the right decision.

[VP Baltar]

@Fishy and Ray - would you support a Shanba lynch today?

[VP Baltar]

@ Ray - At this point, no. You idiots got your Exe wagon yesterday. While I agree that eldarad needs to die, he doesn't need it more than Shanba does. Here's an interesting question, why do you think I would have been a target for a kill last night? Who could that kill have been aimed at protecting? Hmm, curious.

Looking at Kast's post, it's quite funny how little people are saying about their reads. If you don't have a clear scum and town list at this point, then you're just piddling about or you're scum. Pick sides and let's get lynching.

[VP Baltar]

If that was supposed to be some kind of an appeal to experience I have already lol'd. I think you tried the same dumb shit in Tubby's game when you were defending scum HowardRoark from me tooth and nail.

I do agree with you that lynching Shanba will shed a lot of light on the division in the player list one way or another.

[VP Baltar]

Bring your forks, tomorrow's menu: humble pie!

[VP Baltar]

Ok, well I restate then, apathy is not an alignment tell. Nor do I doubt your apathy is genuine.

And there has been a decent case made against you that is being summarily ignored by you and your defenders. Namely, 1) your claim can be considered questionable (partially addressed, though I disagree with these arguments that there are multiple VT pms) 2) there was a major effort to save you yesterday when scum would have greatly benefited from your lynch if you're telling the truth. I don't believe for a second that they could not have gotten your lynch because JD was stamping his feet. The people on your wagon are likely all town in my book, so from my perspective scum could have jammed it through without much issue if you're town. Hell, from your own reads you seem to think most of your wagon was town except for Kast. It simply makes no sense why you wouldn't have been lynched there. 3) You've been doing your best to ignore points made against you and let JD white knight for you. Calling things "stupid" and "tunneling" is not a defense.

preview edit:

@ray - you had your chance to bus and you gave it up. Bargaining for position is useless at this point. I would have thought you had already learned that late day flip flopping made you look scummier than you already are. You're free to vote him if you'd like, but you had better kill me tonight because you're not getting a free pass later.

[VP Baltar]

lol, ok. Enlighten me, what was your doubt?

[VP Baltar]

Not really in my mind. Feel free to edify me. Unless you're making the same point as Shanba about "knowing" him better...which I think is completely irrelevant to the main points against him.

[VP Baltar]

Do you feel that your era's playstyle is "better" than the '08s?

Also, I didn't address it before, but I don't think a vig should shoot JD. There are much better targets out there. Like all of those on my vig/scum list.

[VP Baltar]

I think meta is irrelevant in the case that is being made. I don't know how many times I need to repeat this. Regardless, arguing any more isn't going to help and you're right about that. Shanba flip is needed so we can move on to bigger and better things. If you're right tomorrow, then obviously I'll need to eat my words and readjust my entire gameview. Right now I'm feeling comfortable with the direction things are heading though.

[VP Baltar]

Booya. Good night 'ey DDD?

Good job drawing the kill, Kast.

Town Bloc alliance is:

VP Baltar
DDD
Fishy
JD (tentative)

Everyone else can cower and explain why you shouldn't be lynched or killed today.

[VP Baltar]

I think you should take my word for it considering. DDD is confirmed town as much as you should consider me confirmed town. If we mass claim today (which actually might be a worthwhile pursuit), I'll explain in more detail.

Also, happy birthday.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, Ray is very high on the list. Ergo and eldarad are also in the dog house with me and I'd like their full analysis of the game state asap.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, Ray is very high on the list. Ergo and eldarad are also in the dog house with me and I'd like their full analysis of the game state asap.

Would you agree that the only other (weak) explanation for Ray's actions are that he is the most weak-willed and useless town player left in the game and thus more of a liability no matter what?

I'm not really interested in lynching weak ass town players if that's what you really think of him. I think we can very easily wrap this game up today (assuming three scum) with careful analysis.

Town Bloc: thoughts on mass claim today?

[VP Baltar]

yeah, I'm sure scum are going to kill someone who is either on their team or has been completely wrong all game. Thoughts on the game state and who is scum. Now.

[VP Baltar]

why for either of them, or have you just completely given up playing now because you have egg on your face?

[VP Baltar]

Do you not feel I've earned enough cred that you can trust me that tiny little bit about DDD? It's not like he should even be lynched today anyhow.

[VP Baltar]

I think I'm pro mass claim today too, so that is two and two.

Fishy can be the deciding vote.

[VP Baltar]

Um, not as confident as I am about you, but I'm sure you know why that is. I think if you read him day 1 he looks very pro-town. I dont' trust him to the same extent I trust you (or that I trusted Kast), but he's pretty high up there.

[VP Baltar]

I'd like to hear some arguments in favour of massclaim, though.

My argument is that I have information that may potentially clear someone and explain why there was a vig last night but not night 1. I would prefer picking the claim order if we go down this road. The fact that eldarad opposes mass claim makes me want it even more.

Waiting on RayFrost and Erg0 to wakey wakey on their side of the world .

[VP Baltar]

My main reason is probably your last fishy and I'm a glory whore like that. Additionally, I feel like claiming now boxes scum into fake claims early, which makes their night actions even less likely to be fakeable.

Ah well, forget it. I'll get iced tonight and you guys can figure out the rest. You don't need to be that clever to do it.

I'll reserve my wanna lynch list until our scum candidates get in here with thoughts. No need to tip the hand too early.

[VP Baltar]

That's true.

[VP Baltar]

We've moved beyond massclaim. We're not doing it. Post your thoughts on the game state now Ray.

[VP Baltar]

It's not enough and if you keep feigning ignorance about it, I'm going to be on the lynch RayFrost train very quickly. I would like your thoughts in relation to who's town, the scum flips and every other player in the game in relation to those flips.

[VP Baltar]

lol, it's pretty funny that a2rudeboy was in this game so long and had 5 posts. His single content post has a spat with Ray, but I can't really determine if it's real or faked.

FTR, this is the post where erg0 agrees with me.

I'm pretty sure he made a case before you even came to this game and then you regurgitated it and he said "this guy gets it!"...except neither of you were getting anything. I'm all for erg0 hate at this point, but you've got to come better than that.

If you want to claim in order to confirm someone, then claim - that's a perfectly valid reason for claiming right here right now. There's no need to insist on a massclaim in order to do that.

We've moved on.

4) Baltar's info could be lost - but we don't need a massclaim in order for Baltar to claim independently.

It's ok. I'll share post game after I'm dead tonight. If you use a ouija board tonight at midnight, however, all shall be revealed!

Vote: Erg0

Let's try to run up all the scummy players today and see what happens!

[VP Baltar]

Yes, all I will say is that my role changed last night and I may or may not be useless now. I think JD is right that it can be left ambiguous at this point. The more I thought about it, my information might not be as helpful as I thought. I'm only going to be pro mass claim now if any claimed information is going to help clear or condemn someone on my scum list.

[VP Baltar]

Oh, I forgot to mention this when I was posting yesterday, but:

2) the vig isn't useful in the sense that the last scum is likely NK immune. There is potential info via failed vig-kills - true, but this is likely to be more useful if/when the vig can claim and identify a failed kill.

Where are you getting this idea from? You think the lack of vigging N1 implies NK immune scum? If that's the case, then the vig should just claim and we can lynch away.

[VP Baltar]

DDD won't be vigging anyone tonight. But I knew he did it last night. You know, the best part about the Town Bloc is that they can't kill us all tonight. If I die tonight, and Erg0 makes it through the night, you guys know what to do. Seriously, didn't post a word today.

[VP Baltar]

Has anyone figured out what Friday arvo is yet? I think it's a clue.

[VP Baltar]

That's madness.

Sup Ray. How's your Friday arvo?

[VP Baltar]

Yay! Fun game and thanks for modding Oman. Sorry it didn't end up closer like you would have liked, we just had some luck on our side and made some good choices.

@JD - Actually, I agree with you that the Exe wagon was fantastic in that it divided the town so much and made scumhunting later so much easier. I think the scum team would have been wise to buss him at that point and try to ride the cred through the rest of the game. Saving him by lynching Exe was ultimately a net loss, even if it was a short term gain.

Also, I agree that we need to get our shit together and start busting the scum.

On a similar note, DDD and I make a kick ass team. Glad I got my town read so early and stuck with it. I had a hard time deciding between giving my vig kill to DDD or to Kast. I really felt that Kast was town based on more text in game and DDD was more of a gut feeling than anything else. I went back and forth on them in my mind so many times and even had to change my choice to the mod, but I'm glad I went with DDD because I think his vig-gut is better. His shot basically sealed the game, so a lot of this win deserves to go to DDD.

I too thought there was way too much role discussion D1. I still say making two vanilla PMs is odd...though we won't know until we see them all I guess. It's kind of funny now looking back at Eldarad tell me that the Dark Elves aren't the evil ones

@Erg0 - What happened man? You plummeted from my town reads day 1 with that massive lurk you took on. Oh well.

Anyhow, good game to everyone again and I hope to play with you again in the future.

[VP Baltar]

Oh, and I still don't get the Fishy hate too much post D1.

[VP Baltar]

Nah, lots of people weren't trusting Fishy I felt, not just eldarad.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, I think all the scum got pretty lurky this game. That probably wasn't too helpful.

[VP Baltar]

Oh, and I started the game as a Vengeful Townie if lynched. My original plan was to propose the town lynch me on Day2 and then I'd shoot the scummiest player and the town would gain power roles from mislynching...but my PM changed to vig enabler after N1.

Do you guys have a scum QT?