Mini 1000: The Brave and the Beautiful (Game Over)

[Kdub]

VOTE: bv310

A bit overeager to confirm there...

[Kdub]

1) Why do you play Mafia?
2) How many licks DOES it take to get to the Tootsie Roll center of a Tootsie Pop?
3) Can you describe your thought processes leading into this game?
4) Let's say that you win the game. What conditions lead to that win? What qualities will the game have? Will it be ordered or chaotic, logical or gut-based, fast or drawn out?
5) What is the square root of potato?
6) Can you please link me to the one game that you're most proud of on this site?
7) This is not a question..

1. It's fun.
2. I'd say about 200 or so.
3. Interesting theme, didn't quite know what to expect so I didn't really have many preconceived thoughts.
4. Lynching the scum. Fun. No idea.
5. Approximately somewhere between zero and infinity.
6. I don't really feel personal pride when I win, just happiness that my side won. It's a team game after all.
7. Cool

[Kdub]

I never got a role pm, and my PROD was the first notification from the mod....so soz

Wait, you're saying you confirmed without getting a role PM?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: millar13

[Kdub]

OK I've done a reread of the game up to this point:

The original case against robocopter was reasonable since it was the only real lead at the time, but I'm surprised it went as far as to force a claim. I wouldn't call him confirmed town. It feels a bit convenient that he survived the zerg attack, assuming that an increased lynch threshold is not a common power in this game.

I think we need to be careful in future days and not vote until we are ready to lynch. Use FoS instead or something. If it turns out that robo is scum, I think millar could be his buddy since he immediately claimed that robo was confirmed town after that.
UNVOTE:

My initial problem with millar's post 113 still stands. Not sure why Ythan thinks it's weak. You can't confirm in a game, later say you never got your role PM, then suddenly have it all make sense by saying "oops, EBWOP: I actually did get it, my bad".

Furcolow's post 110 looks pretty bad. Poor excuse to jump on the leading wagon.

bv seemed oddly nonchalant about robo surviving the zerg attack, and then saying in 154 that he was still willing to hammer. I'm not liking his sequence of posts from page 6 onward.

Getting a town feel from Iecerint and Netopolis, a not-so-good feel from Ythan, but admittedly nothing to support that.

[Kdub]

No time for a longer post at the moment but just wanted to address this:

I think we need to be careful in future days and not vote until we are ready to lynch. Use FoS instead or something. If it turns out that robo is scum, I think millar could be his buddy since he immediately claimed that robo was confirmed town after that.
UNVOTE:

1. I agree that FOSing might be the wise way to go ala Square Enix Mafia.
2 Why did you unvote millar when you still find him suspicious?

In case there are other vote-manipulating abilities, we should be careful about not voting until we are ready to lynch. I think everyone should not vote and use FoS instead.

FoS: millar

Top suspects at the moment:
millar
bv310
Furcolow

[Kdub]

Reasons Kdub?

Your bandwagon vote on robo, you "forgetting" about your role PM, your behavior after the robo wagon collapsed. Your play has been extremely erratic.

I'm feeling worse and worse about Ythan's play. He's been defending millar too much for my liking.

Furcolow's post 236 is pretty bad. All three of his reasons for his suspects are terrible, even if I agree with two of his suspects. If millar and Ythan turn out to be town, Furcolow is probably scum.

[Kdub]

Defending millar? Let's hope you got me mixed up with someone else.

You're saying posts 119 and 232 aren't you defending millar?

[Kdub]

Ythan:
You just said my case is weak with no reason why it is weak, how do you want me to shore it up? I think my initial reason to suspect millar was a pretty clear point, what is there to clear up about it?

I kinda see Robo's point about Muffin's big post against millar, but millar's erratic behavior and wagon hopping is reason enough to suspect him. It's a bit interesting that millar was the first person to "clear" Robo after the zerg rush. That, plus Robo conveniently surviving the attack and now his chainsaw defense of millar is making me wary of him as a potential buddy.

Neto, can you explain the Shotty case again? I don't see much other than an accusation of him trying to push a Robo lynch (which it turns out might not have been such a bad thing...).

bv is obviously following the thread based on his last post, but has not said anything else since Robo's claim. In fact, he still has his vote on Robo from the original wagon, and hasn't said anything about what happened afterwards. What is your opinion of Robo now? What do you think of the cases on millar, Furcolow, and Muffin?

[Kdub]

Furcolow's play has been almost as crazy as millar's, but I'm leaning toward believing his claim. It's at least provable and is a useful town role. And if we're not going to believe a D1 investigative role claim, what are we going to believe anyway? Besides, I really am disliking the players on the Furcolow wagon at the moment (millar, Ythan, Robo) for reasons stated earlier.

Still would like to hear from bv, I know he's posted in other games today.

I took a look at Shotty's posts again, and I kinda see what Neto was saying about him trying to throw fuel on the fire, but I didn't interpret it that way immediately. If we knew for certain that Robo was town, then maybe I would suspect him. Don't really like his vote on Neto though.

[Kdub]

If Spyrex is saying he's got something planned, I'm fine with trusting him and seeing what he comes up with. Obviously he's going to have to explain at some point. Still, I don't see why it has to only be the five of us making the decision. Everyone should have input, but you only want us five to be on the lynch wagon, correct? The only problem I see would be if we decide to lynch one of those five, since I doubt anyone would vote to lynch themselves. Do you have an alternate plan if that is the case?

My top choice is still millar, but bv310 is moving up there. bv has still not said anything about the Zerg rush and the subsequent fallout, and he's been posting a lot elsewhere.

Didn't see much to the Shotty case earlier, but I'd like to hear his response to the recent pressure on him.

Magna:
Proven ability does not equal proven alignment, but I think an investigative role like the one Furcolow is claiming is more likely to be town. In the event that Furcolow is scum, we can ask him to share his results so that the town knows who he's been targeting and what results he's been getting. He can't really lie unless he fakes a result on one of his partners, but that has its own risks.

Ythan:
Do you disagree that millar has been wagon hopping? You don't find his initial posts to be strange? I really don't know how you want me to expand on that, all you have to do is iso him to see what I'm talking about.

[Kdub]

Ythan:
So what made you suddenly realize millar was scummy?

Magna:
I am neutral on Shotty at the moment, but he hasn't posted a whole lot so I'd like to see both his accusers make a more detailed case on him that he can respond to, as well as Shotty's reaction to that, before I decide whether I'd be willing to go along with his lynch. I think Furcolow should at least be given the opportunity to prove his ability, and I would put him at the bottom of my rankings of who I would prefer to lynch among the candidates because 1) I think his claimed ability is more likely to be town than scum, and 2) I find the players on his wagon to be suspicious.

Just because bv is on Spyrex's list doesn't mean I'm going to stop calling him out for active lurking. Seriously, check his recent posting then look at his iso in this game.

[Kdub]

Kdub – since neither of them is on your list would you entertain lynching either to allow Sprex’s plan to happen?

If millar is not an option, then sure I'd support a lynch of Furcolow or Shotty to avoid a no lynch. Between the two of them, I'd prefer Shotty.

millar > Shotty > Furcolow

[Kdub]

Responding to prod, just waiting for Shotty to post or for other people to switch to millar.

[Kdub]

@Ythan and Kdub

- Still willing to lynch millar?

Yeah, I'm down with this. millar > Shotty > Furcolow for today's lynch. I will only vote Shotty or Fur if it is clear that there is not enough support for millar.

[Kdub]

Traveling for the nxt day or so, I'll be able to post again either tomorrow evening or Monday.

millar, claim please.

[Kdub]

I'm back. Unfortunately I had no internet access last week, even though I was expecting to. Thanks Charlie for letting me stay in the game. I will catch up and post within a day or so.

[Kdub]

OK, I'm caught up.

First of all, I don't see how there is any serious debate as to whether millar was scum or not. The 2 Kerrigans scenario is ridiculous and would be bastard modding if that were the case. I'm going with the most likely scenario and assuming that millar was scum and was responsible for the Zerg Rush.

Robo, you are NOT confirmed town and your continued insistence that you should be is suspicious. I pointed out yesterday that it seems very convenient for you to have survived the Zerg Rush, along with the fact that millar (who we now know was responsible for it) was the first player to "clear" you.

Furc comes across as Stupid VI with a side of scummy in like every single one of his games. He just can play this game without being a dumb rebel. He's the reason Town loses in LyLo. But thats beside the Point. He went all AtE in this game. He's been really scummy.

Furcolow strikes me as a player who gets emotional and defensive when attacked. He was strongly against millar yesterday, and his claim of having his ability "stolen" looks more truthful than just a straight up roleblock, which is what I would have expected scum to claim if they were lying. The fact that he is drawing votes in spite of this makes me think that you are trying to set him up as a lynch due to his AtE and his unhelpful attitude rather than any serious case. You basically admit this in the above quote.

Ythan is still suspicious to me. He was trying to discredit my attacks on millar and trying to get Fur lynched, but then suddenly changed his opinion around the time Spyrex was forming his plan and the Fur wagon was stalling. Also, I find his explanation in post 777 regarding his inconsistency about whether he was visited at night to be long-winded and evasive. So basically what it boils down to is, "I didn't lie, I wanted Fur to quote where I said I was visited." As muffin pointed out, the implication in post 704 is clear, and your excuse is a poor one that any reasonable person would see as backtracking to cover for an inconsistent statement.

I agree that Shotty is either vig or SK. I like Magna's plan, since it allows us to direct his kills in the event that he is the SK (otherwise we lynch him). Looking at his play yesterday, his kill of Neto at least appears to make some sense, even if I don't agree with it. I'm tentatively leaning toward believing the vig claim, but let's go with Magna's plan to see if we can confirm him.

bv's play looks like active lurking scum, but vote analysis suggests he is town. He got on the millar wagon at a point when he could have pushed for a Fur lynch instead, so that makes him look better.

muffin and Magna are my strongest town reads right now. Leaning town on Iec, but not entirely sure.

I'd be up for either a Robo or Ythan lynch. Since it looks like there is more agreement on a Ythan lynch,
VOTE: Ythan

That's L-1.

[Kdub]

Do you guys (Robo and Ythan) have a case on Fur except for his AtE and you being annoyed with his play? I basically agree with you that his play has been distracting and unhelpful, but it looks to me like you are pushing an "easy" lynch based solely on calling that behavior scummy when his interactions with millar suggest otherwise.

Anyway, this arguing the past couple pages is getting nowhere. Let's wait for Shotty or Iec to give their opinion on Ythan, and we can proceed from there.

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:

Going to think about the claim.

[Kdub]

Ythan, to be absolutely clear, there is nothing more to your role other than beloved princess, and the mechanics of the BP works in the typical fashion?

[Kdub]

I'm not entirely convinced about the beloved princess claim. Princess Peach seems a bit out of place flavor-wise, and BP is a pretty convenient scum fakeclaim. However, it would be pretty disastrous if we lynch him and he is telling the truth because it could be an autoloss for the town if Shotty is actually an SK. I propose a new plan for tonight. Any protective roles protect Ythan, and we make Furcolow investigate him. If he confirms Ythan, great. If not, we have a 1v1, and we can lynch one of them and have Shotty kill the other at night if we choose wrong. In the event that Shotty is an SK and not a vig, he should still kill them because he should be gunning for scum at that point. Also, we force Shotty to hold fire tonight (otherwise we lynch him tomorrow) to keep the numbers in our favor and prevent it from being a potential lylo tomorrow.

The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and there are 2 mafia + SK tomorrow with 7 alive, and Fur claims Ythan is lying. Let's say we lynch Fur and he is town. Shotty kills Ythan at night (no double night since Ythan would be lying under this scenario) because the mafia are his biggest threat. Mafia kills town. We are left with a standoff with 2 town vs. SK vs. 1 mafia in that worst case scenario, and that assumes the town PRs don't use any useful abilities in the meantime. If we lynch correctly either day, or if Shotty is telling the truth, or if there are only 2 mafia instead of 3, then that just makes the scenario better for town. What do people think of that?

I'm not convinced Ythan is telling the truth, but this seems like the safest route forward given his claim. Plus, I'm just as willing to go with a Robo lynch today and it seems like there might be some support there.
VOTE: Robocopter

[Kdub]

Kdub please explain how Peach is out of place flavorwise. That means absolutely nothing with no explanation other than that you want to discredit the claim and have no means by which to do so.

The flips we have seen, the pictures, Robo's claimed roleblock flavor last night, etc. all suggest edgy, serious flavor. Do you think Peach as a beloved princess fits that?

Iecerint:
Scum could have daytalk, or they could have been given a set amount of time to communicate at the start of the game (e.g. first 48 hours after the game begins), as I've seen become fairly common. Fair point on Shotty, but I'm looking at risk/reward of Shotty potentially hitting town vs. him hitting scum tonight. An alternative plan if we really want him to shoot tonight is that we could vote on someone for him to target, and if he kills anyone else, we lynch him. Otherwise, I think we are staking too much on him being truthful.

Magna:
Can you explain how your plan gives more information? I think my plan gives as much, if not more info because we will be able to control Shotty in the event that he is a vig, in addition to figuring out whether Fur or Ythan are town.

[Kdub]

Muffin, did the flavor text you got clearly tell you that you were wrong about Robo, or just that it was implied? It looks like Ythan was town, and now that millar is absolutely confirmed scum, I would be surprised if both Ythan and Robo were town.

[Kdub]

^ Spell out the logic of those dependencies for me, please.

Based on their interactions with millar (confirmed scum) and their play yesterday, I thought Ythan and Robo were the most likely players to be scum. We now know that Ythan was town. Robo is still undetermined, but Muffin is indicating that he may have been wrong and that Robo was town as well. If that's true, then I find it surprising that both Ythan and Robo turned out to be town given my reads on them yesterday.

I have a (non-existent) plot device that tells me guaranteed what alignment somebody is. I didn't use it when I investigated Robo and I was wrong, so now to avoid mistakes I try to find it but it's missing. (aka my results are not guaranteed to be accurate)

Sorry, I'm not really understanding this. You knew your results were not guaranteed to be accurate before you investigated Robo, or you were told that after you investigated Robo?

[Kdub]

From Ythan's side, I see the bizarre discussion with me about "two Kerrigans" and that whole utterly bizarre paradox thing. (Well, he actually manages to say "millar" almost none throughout the whole thing, so I mainly just remember it.) But I also remember you perceiving Ythan-millar connections before that. Could you show me what the hypothetically problematic Ythan-millar connections were?

During the whole millar/Fur thing on D1, I thought Ythan was defending millar (119, 232, 316) and trying to push Fur as the lynch, but then suddenly switched for non-obvious reasoning when it became clear that we weren't going to lynch Fur. That seemed suspicious to me.

OK, I think I understand Muffin's explanation now. So you were told outright that your result was wrong (meaning Robo was town), but you are uncertain as to why it was wrong (e.g. insanity). Is that correct?

[Kdub]

so muffin is insane?

Not necessarily. I tried to investigate Magna 2x in a row to try to discover my sanity but was blocked 2x. I might be 50% or some other percentage.

This doesn't make sense unless you know for sure what Magna's alignment is. If you want to discover your sanity, then investigate yourself. I don't get the 50% thing, are you suggesting you could be a random cop?

Anyway, it sounded like Magna had some idea in mind. Let's hear what he's got.

[Kdub]

Going to take some time to think about Magna's claim. It's a lot of info to take in. With that said, I have a few concerns/questions that various people might be able to shed light on:

1. Ability thief seems like a possible scum role, especially considering that it also roleblocks. I'm also a bit wary of the fact that Magna was able to both steal AND use the stolen ability on the same night. Similar roles that I have seen in the past (e.g. role absorbers) don't get to use any "learned" abilities the same night that they get them. With that said, if Magna is scum, he could have easily implicated Fur and/or Muffin by claiming that they were lying about their role. The fact that he didn't, along with my town read on him previously, makes me inclined to believe him, although again I will think about it more.
2. I don't think Muffin would have fakeclaimed cop out of the blue on D2 just to get Robo lynched. I believe he is town, although his investigation results remain in question. Should we have him investigate himself to check his sanity? If it turns out that he is insane, then we can conclude that bv is scum based on Magna's results.
3. I also found it strange that Shotty decided to go after Muffin on N2, but I wanted to hear what info Magna had on him first. I would like to hear him explain why he targeted Muffin.
4. If Robo was indeed town, then I will have to take another look at Fur. I thought he was being set up yesterday as an "easy" lynch by Robo/Ythan based on his playstyle, but if both of them are town, then Fur is very possibly scum.

[Kdub]

Magna is likely telling the truth about his ability and his night actions. There's just too much detail in his claim, and in a PR-heavy game like this, there are just too many ways he could potentially be caught in a lie if he were making it up. His targets seem consistent with his play so far in the game, so I think he should be trusted until we have reason to believe otherwise.

Still waiting to hear from Shotty about why he tried to kill Muffin.

N1: Track Ythan (null result)
N2: Watch MoI (null result, but flavor implied MoI targeted someone N2, which is consistent with his claim)

N3: Protect MoI

Really hate these actions. We had a claimed cop, a claimed ability cop, and a claimed beloved princess (who you had at least some reason to suspect was being truthful based on your N1 track) on N2/N3, and you watched and protected Magna both nights, who you had no other info on? Why would you not watch/protect Muffin? If you thought he was scum (which your posts give no indication of), then maybe I could understand not targeting him, but even then, Ythan and Fur were far better choices. Unless you think all of them are scum, there's no reason to think scum would want to kill or block an unclaimed player instead of those claimed PRs. Explain please. And just saying anything along the lines of, "Magna was my best town read" isn't going to cut it.

[Kdub]

Iec:
Not sure I like your explanation for targeting Magna those nights, particularly your watch on N2. Even if you didn't think Muffin/Fur were good NK targets on N2, they certainly could have been targets for roleblocks or other scum actions. Fur even had his ability stolen N1 and had claimed two-shot ability cop, so there was reason to believe that he might be targeted again. We know now that it was Magna who stole it, but you couldn't have known that at the time. N3, fair point about Fur, though I still think Muffin was a better target. I'm just having a hard time believing that you really thought an unclaimed player was a better watch target than three claimed power roles that scum almost certainly would have gone after.

As for your connection of me and millar, I would point out that Fur and Shotty were both very viable lynch candidates at the time, and I stuck with millar. Unless you think I was bussing heavily on D1 for town credit (a possible strategy but not one that I personally like on D1 when I play scum), then this connection has no merit.

[Kdub]

That said baring some further consideration I’m going back to the idea that a Mass-Claim of role Names at this point is warranted. Will elaborate if necessary.

For discussion -

I would suggest the following order -

Iec
Kdub
bv310

Not sure what the benefit of a name claim would be unless there is reason to believe scum don't have safeclaims. I wouldn't be opposed if you had some reason to think otherwise though, and you/Muffin should definitely choose the claim order if that's what we do.

Magna:
Proven ability does not equal proven alignment, but I think an investigative role like the one Furcolow is claiming is more likely to be town. In the event that Furcolow is scum, we can ask him to share his results so that the town knows who he's been targeting and what results he's been getting. He can't really lie unless he fakes a result on one of his partners, but that has its own risks.

In light of what has transpired I’d like for you to revisit this post from Day 1. Do you still think Furc is more likely to be Town?

Well your ability pretty much confirmed his ability, so he was being truthful about that. I do think it's more likely to be a town ability. However, other, unrelated info (namely Ythan being town and Robo possibly being town) makes me more wary of Fur than I had been on previous days. I think it's a bit like what Iec is accusing me of. If Fur is scum, that means he bussed millar pretty strongly on D1 even when there was an opportunity to get Shotty lynched instead. Would scum bus so heavily on D1? Maybe depending on individual playstyles, but I don't know. Another possibility is a millar-Fur-Shotty scum team, which is certainly possible as well. So to answer your question, I think he is less likely to be town that I thought he was yesterday, but not because of his claimed ability.

[Kdub]

@ bv, what last game are you referring to?

I would like to know as well. If you have meta info on Fur that he plays better than this as town, then that is serious evidence against him that you should post.

[Kdub]

I took a quick look at Fur's iso in that game bv posted. I think his playstyle looks similar to here, although I didn't see any serious instances of him making a push against near-confirmed players as he is doing here. I agree that some scum meta on him would be useful. Fur, can you provide links to some games where you were scum?

Replacing Shotty is going to suck because the replacement won't be able to tell us Shotty's motivations for his night actions.

[Kdub]

Kast:
If I'm understanding your argument about Magna correctly, you think he or his buddies killed Spyrex, which was unrelated to Neto's death? And he faked Neto's ability to frame whoever the vig was (you)? How would he have known before D2 that there would be another kill that night?

As the different death flavors, I guess you do have a point. Now that I look back at his exact words, Magna described the grapple beam as "Any abilities used on Neto during the Night would also be used on the target". Taken literally, that means that your kill ability would also be used on Spyrex, and thus the kill flavor should also be "shot". I still think his claim is detailed enough that it seems legit, but it's worth asking further questions at least. Magna, any response to Kast's point about the kill flavors?

[Kdub]

Magna, can you respond to the second paragraph of my post 1211? I like the rest of your response to Kast, but based on what you said earlier about Neto's ability, I think he does have a point about the kill flavor.

Should we continue with the name claim, or wait for Kast to respond first?

[Kdub]

There are some issues I have with Magna (his power still seems more like a scum ability, and I'm not entirely satisfied with the explanation for the kill flavor discrepancy), but he has been open with his very detailed action claims, and everything else seems to fit with what others have claimed. Kast has built some reasonable arguments, but the main problem I have with it is that it is entirely predicated on Neto being scum. The fact is, we simply don't know. I know Kast thought Neto was scummy, but nobody is perfect with their scum reads, especially based on D1 alone. Personally, I didn't find Neto particularly suspicious. If Neto was not scum (and again, we don't know and there is no objective evidence as we had with millar), then Kast has no case. It just seems like the wrong play to say "player X is scum for these reasons as long as we assume player Y was scum" when the only evidence that player Y was scum is subjective reads that only the player making the case seems to agree with.

With that said, I'm not quite ready for a lynch just yet. I think there is more to be learned from this debate. Also, some questions for people:

Furcolow:
What do you think of Kast's idea that Neto was scum? Do you agree?
What do you think of Shotty/Kast's claimed targets N1 and N2?

Magna:
Without quoting the mod's PM directly, can you be as specific as you can about how grapple beam works? Does it explicitly say it copies abilities, or just the effects of abilities? That's an important distinction. Can you ask the mod for clarification if possible?

Kast:
I may have missed this, but what is your opinion of Muffin claiming a guilty on Robo during D2? You think Muffin is town, so do you think he is insane, or was Robo scum as well?

[Kdub]

@ Kdub/bv -- What do you think about what I've pointed out?

It's an interesting point that you bring up, and I've tried to think about the possibilities. Here are possible choices:

1) Kast is SK with "shot" kill flavor
2) Kast is scum with "shot" kill flavor and someone else is SK with "scratched and torn to death" kill flavor
3) Kast is telling the truth and is actually a vig
4) Kast and Muffin are scum and Muffin is lying about being shot at
5) We are looking too much into flavor and Muffin's claim of being shot at doesn't necessarily indicate anything about game actions

Regarding scenarios 1 and 2, while possible, the obvious question is why have there been only three kills in three nights if scum and SK each presumably have a kill per night? Have doctors/roleblockers been making good choices and stopping kills? Scenario 3 is possible. Scenario 4 seems very unlikely, Muffin is probably town regardless of Magna and/or Kast's alignment. Scenario 5, it really boils down to how much we want to try to outguess the mod (a perfectly valid tactic IMO) regarding his flavor text.

Given the questions about 1 and 2, and the unlikeliness of 4, I am starting to consider more strongly that Kast could be telling the truth. I'm still not convinced yet though. Some thoughts:

- Kast and Magna: I think the personal attacks and claims of lying/misreps to discredit each other are less useful to me (and the rest of us) at this point than the objective information in the game. Given the number/detail of claims and night actions so far, things would be easier to sort out if the focus of your argument was on objective and logical inconsistencies in each other's cases rather than having half your posts filled with calling each other liars.
- How about having everybody claim any protective or roleblocking actions on the first three nights? The point would be to figure out how likely the SK scenarios mentioned above are. It wouldn't necessarily compromise these roles since we wouldn't reveal whether we have future protective/roleblocking actions, although there certainly are risks. What do people think?
- If Kast is right about Neto and Magna is the last scum, then Magna should have been responsible for blocking Fur on N2 and Muffin on N3. However, we know that he stole Muffin's ability N2, and bv has claimed that Magna used an ability that confirms him as Rikku on N3. That means that in order for Magna to be scum, he either has to be able to use multiple abilities at the same time, or there has to be another scum out there, right?

[Kdub]

bv's claim pretty much confirms Magna as Rikku, regardless of either of their alignments. If bv and Magna were scum and lying about the ability to "confirm" Magna, they would both be sunk if Magna were to die and flip as someone other than Rikku. Unfortunately, since millar's character (Kerrigan) had ambiguous canonical alignment, I don't think we can say for certain that canonical alignment is related to alignment in this game.

bv:
Is your character also confirmed to Magna? Depending how you answer, I may have some follow up questions.

Care to summarize for me? I have no time to read everything. I will tell you one thing though, I will be willing to stake anything that MoI is town. His role,

plus his abilities

make very little sense as scum.

Are you talking about his thief ability, or his other ability that lets you communicate privately? Why does it not make sense as scum?

[Kdub]

bv:
No, I'm asking if him Neighborizing you confirmed you as Alyx Vance to him in the same way that it confirmed him as Rikku to you. For that matter, did any info about you (name/ability/alignment/etc.) get confirmed to him when he used that ability on you?

[Kdub]

Alignment, yes. Other than that, no.

Magna, can you confirm this?

[Kdub]

No I did not protect Muffin on N2.

Sorry if I seem indecisive, but there's a ton of info to take in and trying to sort through all of it is making me constantly second-guess myself. I've basically decided to just ignore my reads and focus only on the objective facts in order to figure things out.

Assuming we trust the mod's flavor that Muffin provided, indicating that Muffin was indeed shot at on N2, then Kast is not mafia for the reasons Iec stated. Could he be an SK? Yes, but I do not think we can lynch him today if that is the case. Assume Kast is the SK. Then he cannot kill tonight, or else he will have exposed himself as a liar. Furthermore, if he actually is an SK, the mafia probably really want him to be lynched, otherwise they have to deal with him at night eventually. SK-Kast is a huge problem for them, and he may draw their NK tonight because he is such a threat. Obviously, Kast could also be telling the truth. Either way, I will not support a Kast lynch today. We need to hit mafia.

The nature of Magna's abilities leads me to believe that canonical alignment is not necessarily indicative of alignment in this game. If he can confirm himself as "Rikku", and he is stealing abilities like "grapple beam" (which other female character uses that other than Samus?), he can basically clear two town (or alternatively, catch two scum) and confirm himself if it were known that protagonists = town in this game. That seems extremely powerful. The reason I asked bv if he was also confirmed to Magna was that if so, that would mean Magna could confirm

three

players, and I would feel that it would be an unrealistically powerful town role and I would feel better about a Magna lynch. Turns out that is not the case, so I'm a bit more apprehensive, but anyway.

There is also the kill flavor inconsistency on N1, which I still am not quite satisfied with. The main issue I have with a Magna lynch is that, like Iec, I had a town read on him earlier, and his role claim seemed detailed enough that he would be taking a big risk by exposing himself to inconsistencies in his claim. I guess the kill flavor is a flaw in the claim, but everything else seems to hold up in light of the actions claimed by Fur/Muffin/bv. But as I said, I think I need to stick with the objective information in the game given the facts so far. Since Kast is definitely not the lynch, I am willing to support lynching Magna. If Magna is scum, then bv has a good chance of being scum. Magna's claim of "clearing" bv with Muffin's stolen ability, as well the details of the neighborizer claim and them supporting each others' claimed actions, make a lot of sense if they are lying.

Furcolow seems like a reasonable "compromise" lynch. He's been useless, and I've basically tuned him out at this point. My main concern is that lynching him today will leave us in the exact same situation tomorrow (Magna vs. Kast) with no new information, except that it might be lylo. His ability has also been confirmed, so he is not the mafia roleblocker. I will agree with his lynch if there is no support for a Magna lynch.

I still dislike Iecerint's claimed targets on N2 and N3, but there is no objective evidence that contradicts his claim, and I think his play today has been very much like mine. He's really trying to piece things together and figure this out.

I don't think we would lynch bv today, unless we were convinced that he and Magna were scum and that he, by default, must be the roleblocker. There is no other evidence against him, although he's been a huge lurker, even by his standards.

So in order of who I would be willing to lynch today:
1) Magna
2) Fur
3) Iecerint/bv

Preview edit: No, I am not the roleblocker, if that wasn't clear from my post. It's almost certainly a scum role.

[Kdub]

Welcome, SSBF.

[Kdub]

SSBF:
Nothing changed between those two posts, but they are not inconsistent. I stated that I would support a Shotty lynch

in order to avoid a no lynch

, which I hope you can understand.

I don't think any of the recent posts have changed my opinion since post 1418. Anyone else have any last comments before we end this day?

[Kdub]

Well, I'll leave it up to you then Iec. I prefer Magna though because we're just going to be in the same situation tomorrow if we don't lynch one of Magna/Kast.

VOTE: Magna

[Kdub]

Deadline is tomorrow. If Iec doesn't make a decision by tomorrow morning, I will switch to Fur to prevent a no lynch.

[Kdub]

My access is somewhat spotty for the first half of this week, so I'm not sure I will be able to check in after tomorrow morning and before the deadline. Obviously if Iec allows a no-lynch to happen, major scum points to him.

[Kdub]

GG

First of all, I am nominating this game for a scummy for best flavor text. Charlie did a great job with the night scenes.

As far as the game itself, I have two main issues. The first is that there was no way to predict the information that players would receive about night actions based on the flavor text. Muffin finding out that he was shot at on N2 is a good example. It made it difficult for us (scum) to plan actions because we didn't know whether information could potentially be revealed to some of the town players that would mess things up. The second issue is my personal opinion that this game had way too many abilities (on both sides). Non-vanilla games can work, but I feel like almost every role (except Peach) would be a super-powerful role in other setups, and with so many potential night interactions, it was way too swingy. Case in point, N1, where we made a poor decision by trying to kill SpyreX, which failed, but due to the sheer chance of the night actions, we got the result we wanted anyway. I felt that night actions were basically a crapshoot, and whether our decisions were objectively "good" or "bad" were unrelated to the actual outcomes of those actions.

Aside from that, I'm glad we actually got it down to mylo after millar was lynched D1. I didn't think we had much chance once it became clear how much power the town had. I'm fine with posting our QT if millar and Fur agree.