Mini 975 - Dirty Dirty South Mafia - game over
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SerialClergyman Mafia Scum
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I agree with everything you said except for your whimpering conclusion. I hate it when people aren't prepared to put hteir vote where their mouth is.Earlder1 wrote:Yeah, I don't like MS. I wouldn't be shocked if bouncy and he were a scum pair, noting MS's initial bussing and then his long case trying to shift suspicion off of bouncy. And lastly, bouncy hasn't reacted to the possibility of MS being scum. Furthermore they both are attacking Camn, making it even more of a possibilty that they are scumbuddies. I don't want to put MS at lynch-1, but right now, I'd put my finger on him.
And besides, you could always vote bb if you didn't want to vote M-S.I'm old now.-
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Actually what am I talking about? No I don't, I completely don't agree with that at all.
The whole reason for an MS wagon is that Elli said this:
and MS immediately said this:Elli wrote:If bouncy is scum, midknight is a buddy.
Which screams that MS is scum and knows bouncy will flip town. there is actually NO WAY MS makes that post as bouncy's partner.MS wrote:Me thinks your on to something Ellibereth.~
Bravo. This is a most precious day in the history of these hollowed three pages~
Let's test then shall we~
Unvote
Vote:bouncy.bouncy
Plus a terrible case on camn who looks obvtown (camn, have I played with you before? Your name rings a bell massively but I can't think of the game).
Nope, I don't like this at all. Earlder, what do you think you can do to help the town move forward at this point?I'm old now.-
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M'okay.
Here's my thing, Midnight. I just flat out don't believe what you're saying. I don't believe you looked at the game enough to notice a vote count, but didn't actuallyk now anything about any player, and that you wanted to participatei n the fun RVS but then used a number generator (surely sapping most of the fun of it).
But I'm getting one of those feelings, so I'm going to say this.
If you're lying right now, I'm giving you an amnesty. Maybe you thought it'd be easier to say generator, maybe you didn't really have a reaon and you got sort of puto n the spot - maybe many different reasons. But if you've just been twisting and turning trying to cover up for a bit of laziness, now is the time to just put your hand up and admit it.I'm old now.-
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I think it's entirely likely that there was a protection, I doubt the scum just refused to read the initial conditions and failed to get their picks in.
Kenman's terrible joining the wagon is worth a vote regardless though. I'm almost certain that camn is town regardless of flip. I think Elli and Hoopla are likely town as well, especially since Elli respected Hoopla's scum read.
Vote KenmanI'm old now.-
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..
right.
You do realise that if Kenman is town we will lynch you before you can blink tomorrow, right? If he flips town and you run with the 'err iunno, maybe there's a doc' it's not going to make me even hesitate...
Anwyays, we'll deal with that if we come to it. Until then, all aboard.I'm old now.-
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This is exactly why we SHOULD massclaim. Chances are we already have 2 roles exposed. So the problem with a MC (that the scum can pick off the power roles) isn't really a problem - they're going to hit power tomorrow and probably the day after as well.@SC: I think mass claim wouldn't be productive at this time; we already have three claimed PR's (of which 1+ are fo sho scum).
So lets get all the claims out and lock scum into their fake claims NOW.I'm old now.-
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Well that's a much better reason for Mae.
I had a quick look at the list of players and I won't lynch Elli, StK, Hoopla, Camn, bouncy. Given the two we aren't lynching because it'll sort itself out, I'm left with very few people left. While I don't have a town read on button per se, he's not doing anything I object to, so I'm not likely to head down that direction. (PS Elli, you said bouncy twice above when one of them should be button)
The one thing that's disturbing my nice little collection of town reads is Hoopla's thoughts on Elli.
Anyways, no hurry, I'm going to have a look at the rest and work out who I want to vote. Why do you think that SPS is the likely scum on the lynch wagon, Elli, especially given that kenman or earld is already on it?I'm old now.-
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Yep, OK, I'm in with the mae wagon.
If there's any scum off the wagon it's probably her.
I'm also not totally sold on Steam Powered Shovel. I don't disagree with almost anything he's said, and he reacted well to you voting him, Elli. It's possible that (scum out of kenman and earld) was the only one on the wagon, and that button and mae were both off the wagon - the first one was pushed pretty hard, quite possible that the scum decided they could avoid most votes.
Vote MaemukiI'm old now.-
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If it's SPS or Mae, I'm with Mae. No competing vote here. Do you actually think he's scummy, or would you just like to see how the chips fall on the wagons?
I also think the huper bus theories are unlikely.
Why massclaim tomorrow over today? The scum have power to aim at today, just as they would tomorrow?I'm old now.-
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That's a bit of a cheap shot - using one game is a bit unfair - I've pushed massclaims in about 5 games i can think of and in all except that one they were a major benefit to the town (or would have been if they'd gotten up - imagine what a massclaim would have done in communist mafia?)
Besdies, it SHOULD have been effective in that game - we got Ecto and McGriddle to depend on each other's claims, and the same with the masons. Unfrotuantely, we didn't capitalise on that fact, but again, in theroy I think it was the right option.
Ok, have a read and come back with your thoughts. I'm OK with people changing frames of reference to include those two lynch candidates, but I want them to admit it. And asking for a coutner-wagon on someone who you have no real opinion on is a little odd.I'm old now.-
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What can I say - I totally disagree.
I think it's easy to claim almost anything in lylo - that's kind of the point. The earlier the claim, the longer you have to keep justifying that claim. Claim cop in lylo you can put whatever resutls you'd like, dead people, already confirmed people etc etc. Claim cop on D1 and you ahve to keep comign up with results, painting yourself into a corner.
PRs should have freedom, no question, and I'm generally not in favour of town dictating all PR choices. In that case it certainly is too easy to mess up.
But in terms of simply gaining a role title, I couldn't disagree more. I think it's harder to maintain the earlier you do it, the earlier you do it the longer you ahve to process the results. Even something as simple as getting a rough gauge of where scum are based by power - if there's a huge amount of power you can pretty much tell most of the scu mare in the roles group - easy way to fight them.
/inv 4 - for example - we determined that there was too much power so the scum were probably fakeclaiming. That, plus we realised that 2 people in one group were easily confirmable and 1 was confirmed. So that allowed us to lynch a claimed hider and find him scum, and then lynch the person he 'hid' on who was also scum and we hit I think 4/5 scum in the next 5 lynches to win the game.
I guess you're looking at it very much in terms of results - what resutls do we have this early and what results are we likely to get effectively from the MC on. What I'm suggesting is that locking fakeclaims EARLY without dictating night choices makes life difficult for the scum because you've got enough time to deal with it and for the fake results to get significantly harder.I'm old now.-
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Mae - At least signify which thoughts from other people you agree with so we can get an understanding of exactly what your thoughts are on this game.
Hoopla - it's relevent to the game now - I'm not just theory discussing for the hell of it. I get that you're not into a massclaim now, but it's good to discuss. And the point of a massclaim isn't just to break the game, that's what I'm trying to say. It's to severly cut down on the range of fakes and explanations scum can come up with by the end of the game.I'm old now.-
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Well, knowing all the scum is in the vanilla contingent and you can trust results from PRs (and have all 3 as confirmed town) is worthwhile in and of itself. (you can make this assumption based on power of the town etc) Plus you have full access to all of their results so far (something you won't get if one of them gets killed without breadcrumbing).
Plus in this game, like in almost any other I suggest the claim, we already have SOME claimed roles. Which means we likely have one neutralised and one killed today ANYWAY.
I still feel like we're talking about apples and oranges somewhat when I hear your arguments.
Anyway, it does indeed seem moot given I have a total of zero support for the plan.I'm old now.-
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Although I think kenman is the likely liar, I don't have much of a problem with his action resolution. It sounds to me like the hide's outcome is resolved at the end of the day. I can't see how it could function any OTHER way. Otherwise he'd randomly drop dead if he targeted scum that day. Also, you'd need to have the action last for the entire afternoon lest someone kill the person he's hiding with after he's completed his action - the action still needs to be ongoing after he's used it because it's conditional on other people's action.
Does that make sense?
Was your attack on camn genuine? Do you feel he is protecting kenman?I'm old now.-
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Wow, I TOTALLY missed Hoopla's death.
><
Ok, right.
Well - I'll look for breadcrumbs. Her block/protect might be important. Last time I prevented a kill as jailkeeper I did the worst breadcrumb in theh istory of the universe (Hey guys, I think Ojanen is either REALLY scum or REALLY town).
Aside from that, Hoopla was considered reasonably pro-town. She has suspicions of kenman, Mae and SPS. It incriminates SPS slightly, but not nearly enough for me to switch votes.I'm old now.-
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COuldn't find any breadcrumb of her results. I think her first post about not listening to StK's whining might be some sort of jailkeeper crumb, but if it is I can't work it out exactly.
I'm pretty sure she didn't jail bouncy, kenman or earldar based on her reactions to the claims.
So yeah, can't see any obvious reason why she'd be targeted apart from her generally-held protown read and her suspicions.
Anyone seeing anything I'm not?I'm old now.-
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Ok.
First thing's first - noone gets town points for jumping on kenman today. Regardless of his alignment, the scum would have a plan with how to deal with him. Those early on his wagon today are just as likely to be scum on a planned bus as they are townies. The key will be looking back. So all you hungry scum quickly trying to jump on a bus, calm yourselves, this is not going to be something you can point to.
Second - we need to work out what to do today. I suggest a mssclaim followed by lynching kenman.
Third thing - there is SCUM amongst the unvoted on Mae's wagon. For sure. That is a transparent attempt to avoid a no-other-options wagon. You can't tell me that the scum were all on that wagon and the 5 people we were waiting for a hammer from for days were all just unaffected townies.
Fourth - is Kenman telling the truth? At this point I don't think it's worth taking the risk and am in favour of a lynch after role results + a massclaim.
The only advantage I can see to NOT lynching him is if we regard his AS CONFIRMED SCUM and only not lynch on the off-off-off chance that he can confirm himself to us. But to be honest, I think that's a meagre benefit.I'm old now.-
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Also, the only way I can see scum-bouncy is if scum targetted kenman and kenman is really a hider. Therefore scum see a NK-immune player, freak out, and figure it's worth a fake claim to get him lynched.
What's FAR more likely is that kenman is scum, and bouncy either blocked him or assumed he did and did the right thing in claiming. I think bouncy is almost certainly town.I'm old now.-
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[quote"StK"]If scum learned their lesson from D1, they've submitted their kill today as early as possible. Quicklynching only hurts the town PRs from doing their jobs. [/quote]
This seems like a weird thing to say for someone convinced about kenman scum. Aren't you forgetting the obvious other option, that bouncy legitimately blocked a kill?I'm old now.-
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There's clearly too much power there. So there's at least 1 scum in the power roles, but we kind of already knew that. No chance that there's some magical all-town between the claims.
I'd expect probably 3 power roles as town, or 4 if the scum have a role. Given that we have a confirmed jailkeeper and a likely blocker I would expect at least 1 scum role and probably 4 town roles, although the roles claimed are all very powerful (2 hard investigate, 1 soft investigate, 1 combined doc/block and one block)I'm old now.-
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Oh snap.
I told you guys there was no reason to vote so early, I made it clear that you don't get town cred because on the third day after kenman weasled his way into another day of life you decide to vote him, yet still 4 of you geniuses decided to vote him anyway and now he's quickhammered himself.
You all get 10 points for being on a scumwagon and yet concievably fucking the town.
Also, I'm giving that wagon a freaking hard look tomorrow, even though I'm pretty sure two of them are ocnfirmed town (ugh).
for now,
ELLI - IF YOU READ THIS CLAIM IMMEDIATELY YOUR RESULTS, IT'S VERY IMPORTANT.
In case I die, I'm sure that one of his results is an innocent on SPS, it's pretty obvious from a crumb in 379. The other is an innocent on either Hoopla or bouncy, he says both are definitely town at various points on D2. Neither of which is that useful because hoopla is confirmed and bouncy is all but confirmed given he claimed to have kenman lynched on D2.
ELLI COME AND GET IN HERE NOW AND VERIFY THE ABOVE.I'm old now.-
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Oh, never mind. Hi Elli!
Never would have guessed camn was your result given your interactions - your first post on D2 was Hoopla is confirmed town, and you said the same about bouncy two posts down ><
Still, at least we got your results. I'm guessing sanity is not an issue basedo n power alone it seems WAY harsh to give town a naive cop, given the hider is definitely a fake.
Godfather MAY be an issue, but that's a damn hard thing to deal with, and I don't recommend going there.I'm old now.-
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I'm not at all keen on a kerrigan wagon. I think camn is rightly getting looked at, but I can't see scum there. That would be an absolutely huge bit of defence. Although keeping kenman alive 2 nights with a bad claim would have been a huge win for the scum. The claimed roles I think are essentially confirmed town.
That leaves us with SPS and button. I think the lynch has to be in that group. If there was no innocent verdict, I'd go with SPS because at least button had a scum read on kenman that was pretty strong (although he never acted on it and voted). I don't know if the innocent/godfather issue is going to force me to switch to button though.
WHen I get more time I'm going to have a look at some of the wagons.I'm old now.-
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I think all those questions have pretty obvious answers. And yes really zz.
For example -
The hypo scum motivationand what it gains you is:
a) To keep your team alive as a voting block
b) To out further power roles (already had to out 2 to get kenman lynched)
c) To draw an investigation.
You might say you were committed to lynching him before lylo, yet you were in favour of lynching button over him yesterday. So if that was a mislynch, he would have been there, in lylo (most likely). So actually, you weren't committed to lynching him before lylo.
How would you know there was a cop?
That's probably a likely scenario if you're a godfather.
How would you know that you would draw an investigation?
You couldn't be sure, but you were a pretty obvious choice, given you were defending heavily the guy who looked the scummiest. Could be the perfect way to use the godfather role not just to avoid detection but actively try to confirm yourself.
I don't like this overreaction on button either - this was one of the first times he's seriously pointed out something solid. Your play fits the godfather role pretty well.I'm old now.-
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I admit I remember it being stronger than it was when I went back, but it's definitely there.
Elli suggests lynching button over lynching kenman on 453:
Kerigan opposes very clearly.Elli wrote:Would anyone be up to risk a BUTTON lynch, and for us to ask KENMAN, to do the hid thingy one more time?
Camn feels out the scenario:Kerrigan wrote:2. Button is suspicious, but we are not lynching him over Kenman today
I thought you were actively in favour of it rather than this more nebulous 'in favour of rethinking it', so my recollection was off a bit, but it's also not exactly what I'd expect from someone who was totally and utterly opposed to letting kenman live to lylo.Camn wrote:I support rethinking a Kenman lynch... though logic tells me that if he screwed up the plan once, he can screw it up twice.I'm old now.-
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Also the fact you had your vote on him on D3 is a negative. As I said at the start of D3, noone gets town points for trying to lynch kenman AFTER his hide fails. In fact, all the votes on kenman achieved on D3 was a lynch that was always going to happen and almost losing us the chance to hear Elli's results.I'm old now.-
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I've had a 12 hours slep and I'm feeling as refreshed as a naken man in the Arctic.
I had a long think about camn and SPS, but the more I did the more I agree with one of camn's points - they have INNOCENT investigations. It's one thing to say that their play matches with the play of a godfather, it's quite another to say they are more likely to be scum AFTER an innocent result. I mean, even if there's a godfather, they could be in the group of players not investigated.
So the whole 'one of the innocents is a godfather' thing is a bit of a false dichotomy. I agree that there's the possibility that even with an innocent result they could still be scum, but I think I'd prefer looking elsewhere for scum today.
Having said that - where else? I believe both claimed roles. So that leaves StK and buttonman. I will have to reread Kerrigan I suppose but out of the two there's no question which I'd prefer to lynch at the moment. I don't see much of a choice.
Vote Button
I also remain totally unconvinced that claiming VT is a scumslip over claiming townie. I think the two are interchangable.I'm old now.-
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Quickhammer isn't quite as important as yesterday when results hadn't been announced, but nonetheless it's probably good form to unvote
I'm not sure how the mechanics would resolve themselves, but it looks good in theory.
Mod - can a lynched scum be the person who commits the night kill if they are lynched before afternoon?I'm old now.-
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Ok, well i'm in a position where it's almost confirmed to me that Kerrigan is scum. I know that both of the innocents can't be scum and I know I'm not scum, so the only option is one innocent + bouncy or 1 innocent + Kerrigan or bouncy + Kerrigan.
The only one of those options that doesn't include Kerrigan as scum is one where bouncy is, and that is just out of my comprehension, frankly. I have disagreed with some of his choices throughout the game, but his claim on kenman at the very start of D2 that caught scum - there was just no reason to do that as scum.
And now that I'm pretty sure Kerrigan is scum, little things are coming back to me - we both investigated the possibility of camn being a godfather, but if you look at our posts at the time, I was inquisitive, he was accusatory. It took me to say hold on, she has an innocent verdict this is a false dichotomy and then he agreed with me straight afterwards. Little thigns like that.
So there it is. I'm ok with going along with bouncy, but from where I'm standing, Kerrigan's almost certainly scum, probably with one of the innocents, probably with SPS.
Oh, and reminding people there needs to be a lynch before deadline isn't worth major town points. It's easy enough to do and pretty obvious to any deep south player, I'd have thought. Don't go overboard because of that little bit of play.I'm old now.-
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SerialClergyman Mafia Scum
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Kerrigan, as was painfully obvious from my post, BOTH of the innocents can't be scum. That means only 1 of them MAX can be scum.
The only person they could be paired with is you or bouncy. Out of those two, I'm pretty sure the scum is you.
That was pretty obvious from my post, given I explained all of that out and went through every scenario, so I can't imagine how your 'AHA' moment is anything other than a last ditch effort.
In fact your whole post above - it's directed @camn, but attacks me and bouncy, ignores SPS completely but also attacks camn and asks bouncy to justify camn's actions.
I just flat out don't believe you. I pretty much know already that you are scum, and your latest posts aren't dissuading me from that read.
Vote Kerrigan.I'm old now.-
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SerialClergyman Mafia Scum
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Button, don'th ammer until you've considered your block very carefully. While the scum want to get their kill off, they also don't want to be found out by your block. So they're going to have all kinds of WIFOM about who actually perpetrates the kill. Carefully decide if you think it's more important to block Kerrigan or one of the otherp layers in an attempt to partially clear them.I'm old now.-
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SerialClergyman Mafia Scum
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