Mini 942: Gonzo Mafia - Game Over!

[Jahudo]

Hi hi, i've been keeping tabs on this thread but have a few pages to read.

Why are you sorry Vi?

[Jahudo]

unvote

I've read everything, realize the deadline is looming and will try to pull all my thoughts together today--scum picks and a vote. And now I see what Vi meant with 'sorry'. I checked that other game but there's nothing I can read from it about reck's alignment here.

About the replacements:

- flinter did mention she was busy and posting to avoid a prod in her only other game (Tit for Tat), so the V/LA looks real. So even though she didn't replace out of that game, it seems possible that she wanted to try and handle 1 game. I don't see it as a tell either way.

- reck has seemed to give a couple different reasons for possible replacement. He claims V/LA busyness in post 170, but disinterest in post 202. The former is legitimate as far as I'm concerned, but the latter doesn't read as genuine to me. Also because I don't see how accepting your own lynch is pro-town in that situation.

@Reck: are those reasons connected in any way? If not, why are you disinterested?

[Jahudo]

Here's my three suspects. I don't know who I'm most confident in without hearing responses, but with the deadline it looks like I'll probably be voting Jack.

@all: what is everyone's current feeling on DDD and Locke?
I'll try and post my reads on reck, sotty and hohum before the end of the day.
------------------

Jack/flinter: scummy (tho not because of Jack, just flinter)

@Jack:

I'm only on page 10 of my read, but so far I'm not liking Sotty or Zach.

Do you mean you had only read up to page 10, or only page 10 at that time?

@Jack: How much do you look for scumbuddies before a single scum flips?
You pair kyle and reck together but also think hohum is scummy, who has been voting reck pretty hard. Does hohum change your reck read at all? And what are your reasons for thinking reck is scummy?

flinter:
* In post 131 she defends her playstyle of not pressuring people harder than she feels confident in, but I think the pressure of being on a wagon made her act contrary to her playstyle in post 120 when she voted kyle.

The timeline roughly goes like this. 115) Percy asks flinter for her suspects. 116) flinter gives an unexplained feeling on kyle, saying she wants to see more from him. 118) kyle posts again. 120) flinter votes kyle.

But I see some inconsistencies in flinter's vote that make it look like she was more concerned with addressing the suspicions on her playstyle, and not confident in her kyle case to vote naturally.
-flinter says kyle only made 1 point in post 118, but I count 2. (reck comment, zach comment).
-flinter says kyle's change of playstyle makes her think he's scum. But she doesn't acknowledge that she wanted to change her playstyle for this game too (post 113), and that wouldn't make her scummy.

flinter:
* In post 132 she tries to "outguess the mod" with her stance on post restrictions

I think a postrestriction would normally most given to town, so asking if that was it, would semi confirm him.

I think its suspicious she used this statement in place of actual scumhunting to get a player read. She could have been buddying to Vi, or at least putting trust in someone's motivations and possibly their own cases without feeling compelled to analyze their motivations or reads.

--------------

DDD: scummy

I might've jumped a kyle/Jahudo wagon if it was still available because I got progressively more uneasy with kyle's play as I re-read his posts.

When was this? That quote is the first time you mentioned kyle, so why didn't you question him when he was still in the game?

Vote: DDD

Because he's going to wind up tunneling on me/calling me a shitty player anyway.

That Guy: Hey Danny, come vote for me, buddy.
This Guy (in a West Virgina accent): Wah shore.

Vote: xRECKONERx

It does look like DDD ended up tunneling on reckoner and calling him a bad player without explaining why.

He's said reck looks bad since post 84, but he never questioned reck in all that time. He agreed to a Vi case and it seems like he called for a policy lynch on reck's desire to get replaced. But he hasn't expanded on the reck case, so his involvement and confidence don't feel genuine to me.

@DDD: Has your confidence in reck been strong the entire game? If so, why no explain it more for people that weren't on his wagon during the day? Is meta part of your case too?

Was your confidence in flinter weaker throughout the game?

--------------

Locke Lamora: scummy
* In post 104 he doesn't like Vi's case on ekiM; that those things aren't scummy to him. But Locke's vote was on ekiM at the time, when it was the second largest wagon (L-4). I think its possible he was sitting on a wagon without having to approve of it because his reasoning came from the random vote stage (post 22).

He changes his vote in post 141, but that was after several people suspected him for behavior like this (his Zach pressure and town read). So it looks like he might have tried to push suspicion on some people early without having to stand behind a case.

@Locke: Why didn't you change your ekiM vote earlier?

[Jahudo]

First I'd really love for someone to explain this whole tunneling=scum thing to me because I swear not only is it inaccurate, I just don't see the logic behind it.

I don't do questions (or at least I don't think I do). I read, I analyze, I vote, I borrow other people's arguments and sometimes I even occasionally write up actual cases, but I really don't think I do questions.

That second paragraph does sum up your play in this game, and if that's how you find scum then that's how you find scum. But I think that, and tunneling like you have, is a good way to play as scum.

I've seen plenty to dislike from reck and nothing that really looks pro-town to me. I've brought up the things I found interesting from his forced case on Zach to his threat to replace out and I quoted Vi in regards to his shifting meta reads and using his commitments as a smokescreen.

You've said that reck's case on Zach was ridiculous and bad, which sounds like an easy way to stay vague so that if a specific tell about reck making his cases is later dropped, your unexplained reasonings can stay in-tact.

-----------------

Only page 10 at the time.

That's how I read it too, and it explains why you didn't like Zach or Sotty before you made your player reads where Sotty went into the town column.

[Jahudo]

I'll get my hohum read out next, followed by a search of reck ongoing games. I've only skimmed through the last page or so since I'm focused on iso's now.
---------------------

xRECKONERx: either scummy or neutral (see below for details)
* His Zach vote is based on a meta argument, which I see as weak reasoning but not scummy to investigate. I read it as a small point, which happens early in the day. Its not a tell for me. The timing of his unvote doesn't tell me anything other than several people were suspicious of his case, and he had no defense for it. I'd only call that scummy if he had kept up the case on that point for longer than Zach could possibly defend against it, but I don't see that.

* In Post 129 shows he might be reading the thread selectively. He asked Vi a question she already answered in post 35. That's a little suspicious.

* I don't like his post 199. He calls Sotty's post 190 fluff without saying why. It only makes sense to call something fluff without further explaination when its obvious why its fluffy. (ie: the post is about something non-game related, like what the player ate for breakfast.) This is also a little suspicious for me because his vote was on Sotty for fence-sitting, but he never asked Sotty questions.

This after he questioned Zach for a weaker tell. Usually if you call someone out for fence-sitting, you try and get them off that fence by questioning them on their tells and lack of stances. So Reck looks like he's just sitting on an easy vote.

But, he's used V/LA and busyness as a reason for not being invested in the game. And it explains these tells for me. So he's either lying about being busy or none of this is a reliable tell for me. I gotta check his other active games; if its the former I'll support the wagon, but if its the latter than I don't think its better than random odds because he'd just be a regular lurker.

[Jahudo]

Hohum: town
* I don't have a problem with hohum post 85 acknowledging that Vi may have a post restriction. It doesn't necessarily help anybody right away, but sometimes it ends up being pro-town to out post restrictions early (see: SWN II). And there has been an obvious pattern of gimmickry in Vi's post so its like pointing out the elephant in the room. Everybody is aware of it. What a scoop!

And subsequent Percy-hohum fight doesn't make hohum look like scum to me. He had only asked Vi the question, but Percy projected that he was going to focus on it more than he did. (reminder: small suspicion on Percy)

* In post 180 he vaguely attacks reck's play but he does elaborate in post 181. Which actually makes 180 okay for me, because he does take a stand on specific elements of reck's play. Lurking excuses is a valid tell but one I'm not sure I agree on yet (see my reck read). The shitposting is still vague and easy to sit on if he were scum, but the reactionary stance is more specific and open to counter-opinions. This looks like a read coming from town-hohum because the tell is still there for him around 209.

* His general lurker pressuring makes sense for this game, with its shortened deadline. If you have to be prodded once you're missing almost 1/4 of the day (or just over 1/5, take your pick). So I don't think this is a tell against him.

[Jahudo]

A) Yes, it's a good scum strategy and so is straight lurking if you can pull it off and so is looking like the most pro-town player in the game. There are any number of good scum strategies what I'm suggesting you've failed to do is go beyond that and show why you believe me to be scum.

B) I believe I made specific points about it being a contrivance e.g. that is was inauthentic. I think that's a rather specific criticism rather than ridiculous and bad.

I said that someone who makes a vague case is able to stay on it longer than someone who gives specific points that could later be disproved or unpopular by the town. It looked to me like your vote had the intention of sitting put without needing more information, because you didn't question him. To me it looked like you were ready to lynch him in the first few pages. And I don't see that coming from town.

Contrivance means unnecessary and inauthentic. You didn't explain the unnecessary part, when to me that's not a strong tell for someone early in the game that's trying to get reads by going off small points. Which is what I read reckoner as doing.

The inauthentic part is something you can slap onto any quote from any post. Like someone is saying something as scum because they don't really mean it. But you didn't explain why they didn't mean it, and its not obvious in reck's posts until he later says his own case was poor.

So it was bad, but that could still come from town genuinely trying to get a good read based off a small point, rather than a scum pushing a case he knows is going to be bad.

[Jahudo]

@Vi: Did you elaborate on the "locked on" thing? Is that something hohum has done before? (I can't remember if it was in bebop or another game I should know about)

OK... and what about the strongest points against him? The way he declared his xRx vote final for threatening to replace out, what do you think about that. The way he didn't make that final vote for an hour and felt the need to provide a link to back it up. The way he completely ignored his other suspect flinter replacing out, while throwing the book at Rec for threatening it.

He didn't say his vote was final in 209. It came two days later in response to Vi, who asked him if his vote was "locked on".

So what does the hour refer to?

As for making a vote final, no I don't think that's scummy. Taking ownership of a wagon the way it stands basically says you stand by your case points and you're open to criticism, wagon analysis, etc later on. I think this is different than sitting on a wagon because you can't use the defense that the hammer occurred before you were ready.

And in that way I'm starting to read DDD's post 268 as making his vote final. The "pretty much" has since come to mean "yes" in the defense I've seen from him. So yeah, I'm less suspicious of DDD after hearing his defense.

Back to hohum,

It is a valid contradiction that hohum didn't say he was suspicious of flinter for replacing out, which he could have done even though his reck vote was final. But he did say he wanted to lynch Jack after reck in a recent post, which I can believe is a product of making his reck vote final.


---------------
I can't find another reck game in this time frame that would show his busyness. But that doesn't mean he's faking it, its just his other games are far enough along that he could be more invested in them. The tell is just too subjective right now for me to support a reck wagon. I'd rather he stick around another day and be involved in the game.

I still like a Jack lynch, second suspect is Locke. And now I see ortolan wagon has some support so he'll be my next player read.

Vote: Jack

for now

[Jahudo]

@Vi: Did you elaborate on the "locked on" thing? Is that something hohum has done before? (I can't remember if it was in bebop or another game I should know about)

I don't remember if he's done it before. I was commenting on the irony of him saying his vote was locked before going on V/LA.

I agree that I'm bothered by how he called his vote final well before the deadline

while still listing two other suspects

. That IMO is the strongest point against him.

I don't think that happened. When did hohum go on V/LA, and when did he say his vote was locked on? All I can find is you asking if his vote was "locked on", and he said yes.

As for ortolan, I'm still piecing this game together and will try to have a little time before deadline to say one way or the other. If I haven't gotten to someone's player read, its because I didn't find anything that eye-catchingly suspicious on my first read through. That's how ortolan was but its hard for me to see lurking in a catch-up read, so maybe it is there.

[Jahudo]

I still don't think you're explaining what happened.

You brought up "locked on" before he brought up "vote final". Right? So its possible he wouldn't have said final under your definition of a final vote (declaring you will not change your vote to the public) on his own, but continued to play under his definition (feeling most confident but not having to say you're not going to change your vote). Since you brought it up, I'm suspicious of you now using it against him when I think he's still acting like town under his perspective and yours.

I'd like to lynch jack but xReck is a better choice for today. Percy needs to go as well.

That is not a contradiction from making a vote final. He's saying reck is still his top suspect, and jack/percy are for later days. The confidence of finding reck most suspicious is still there.

It also looks like you're misrepresenting him here:

In fact I would rather be voting flinter, Percy, and xRx at the same time"

He's not saying they are even on the scum scale, because he said reck was the better choice today. He's saying if he had 3 votes, he'd lynch all three. Like if we were playing reverberation, he'd want a multi-purge.

I'm bothered by how he called his vote final well before the deadline

This is just a disagreement on a tell I guess. I think scum would want to keep their options open longer, but town feeling really confident in a wagon are owning up to it more.

I'll still look at ortolan seriously, but Vi is bumping up my suspect list quick. 1. Jack 2. Locke 3. Vi and DDD is not a suspect anymore.

[Jahudo]

Vi, it looked like your paraphrasing implied that hohum was equally suspicious of flinter, percy and recks. Yes, "at the same time" could mean "if I had multiple votes", but you're still arguing that hohum could possibly move his suspicions of flinter and percy up after his vote became final. But his other posts explain why he wasn't going to do that.

I'm not sure how flinter could become more suspicious to hohum, since he had already replaced out before hohum made his vote final.

And I'm not sure how Percy could become more suspicious to hohum, since hohum said he would specifically deal with Percy the next day before hohum made his vote final.

I'm suspicious of you for misrepresenting hohum. That's all for now.

[Jahudo]

Saying your vote is final means that you have zero plans to do so, which is something seldom seen and more often done by scum.

You've seen that more often done by scum? I'm not sure I've ever seen it actually, but I like empirical data. Lacking that, I just feel like its a bad play for scum to make.

If scum make a final vote on a town wagon that gets to a lynch, the next day that scum is open to every suspicion going along with his decision. Like, "this guy was also your suspect and look what he did near deadline! Die scum die!"

If scum makes a final vote on a town wagon when a competing wagon is on scum that gets to a lynched, the next day town will wonder why someone was no way going on the scum wagon. Scum will be under suspicion.

If scum makes a final vote on a wagon that doesn't go to a lynch, and town is lynched somewhere else they're open to the suspicion that they're vote was being wasted on a wagon that wouldn't go anywhere. They effectively disowned the lynch wagon.

If scum makes a final vote on a scum wagon, well that's just pretty pro-town actually

----------------------------

Also everyone is aware of this right?

4) If a day ends at the full deadline and a majority has not been reached, no lynch will take place.

[Jahudo]

Huzzah! Though after looking at Vi's case on ortolan... I kinda like it.

Ort's vote on kyle didn't take into account that he had replaced out of another game. Which is something easy to search for, and should be looked into if you know your suspect can't defend against it, since he replaced out. So his kyle vote looked too easy.

And part of ort's case on Jack was contradictory to his own playstyle. He doesn't like unexplained gut reads, but ort has made unexplained gut reads in this game:

I'm also either neutral on or dislike all of Locke Lamora's posts thus far.

I just isoed kyle, the only scummy thing I noticed is...<snip>...
Which is kind of a weird thing to say.

I still don't see the lurking, though I didn't get to read him in real time so maybe that's it. And all this personal stuff, I don't like how his suspicion on Vi went into non-alignment attacks like questioning Vi's lynch-resistant essence (what do you call it, authority or popularity that never gets you lynched?) in 420, and ad hom in 421 by saying he dislikes Vi. If he felt this way going into the game, and it should stand to reason that he would based on all this meta he brought up late, he would have addressed this earlier. It all looks suspect to me, coming under pressure and being unraveled.

1. Jack 2. ortolan 3. Locke 4. Vi (everybody else looks town to me right now)

[Jahudo]

I don't think anyone who has never played with me (flinter, Jack, kyle99, ekiM, Locke Lamora? in this game) thinks I have much authority.

They don't need to, Professor Paragon. Anyway, it was only one of a few possible ideas on why he'd bring up the idea that you're hard to lynch. But in any case that I can think of, it seemed like reactionary defamation to explain why you aren't lynched here and now. And I don't see that coming from town, even if they're about to be lynched. So let's lynch him.

Vote: ortolan

[Jahudo]

Has hohum defended all the points from post 462? I don't think so, but he probably should. Like why he ignored most of the town. Still, I don't think its scummy the he ignored the flinter replacing, which I already mentioned. And the timing of the reck vote is also not a tell for me.

Locke wagon is looking weak. I don't see how he's been wishy-washy or lurky. I had one tell on him that I still like, but it was also kinda early in the day and now I'm feeling meh.

Cobalt, post or peris....oops, that's trademarked. Just,

unvote;
Vote: Cobalt

[Jahudo]

I'm confused. How do I get a wagon placement of 12 or 15?

[Jahudo]

Ah, so jumping on a wagon late + not being on many wagons = possibly suspicious?
And starting wagons + being on alot of wagons = possibly pro-active pro-town?

I can see the theory behind it but there's variables to consider. vote hopping may be opportunistic in some situations. random vote stage votes don't carry as much weight as votes right now.

[Jahudo]

Jahudo do you think Ort and Vi are scum together?

Technically Vi is never scum. She just something has a bastardized town role where she wins with the scum.

But my gut would say no based on the personal attacks, though I haven't looked at the other games they were referring to.

[Jahudo]

Short night.

A quick look at orto's posts and I feel even stronger that reck and hohum are town. Jack's probably town too. And Vi. So why don't you figure it all out why I find a strong drink and some mescaline?

/re-reading thread

[Jahudo]

so where are either of our top suspects anyway

(hohum, Jah00do)

You know, just lurking in my hidey-hole.

But actually I've also been interested in ekiM's suspect list from yesterday.

--------------------------
Stuff about ekiM here:
--------------------------

He starts out grouping hohum, ortolan and DDD in a way that suggests he is equally suspicious of them:

hohum, ortolan, DDD. These guys trouble me. <snip>
I will support a hohum or DDD lynch today.

But his vote switches to DDD:

unvote; Vote: DDD

Near deadline he explains why hohum is his top suspect. It looks more like its because hohum is most viable, instead of most likely to flip scum:

I would prefer one of hohum, DDD, ortolan. Of those, hohum is the most viable.

But ekiM's attitude changes when he says that hohum is a better bet for scum, which makes ortolan a worse bet.

No reason ort can't be scum, but it's less likely to be with hohum when he named his two lynch preferences for today as Jack/flint and hohum. I'm pretty sold on hohum being scum.

He even suspects people against the hohum case, which seems like an indirect way to derail the ortolan wagon at this point in the game:

I could easily see two of those being scumbuddies trying to steer away. I'm gung-ho for a hohum lynch now.

So I don't see how he went from seemingly having equal reads on ortolan and hohum, to saying he'd prefer hohum for being viable, to saying he'd prefer hohum for being most scummy.

@ekiM: can you show where hohum did something to make him your number 1 suspect, and when you made that switch of opinion?

[Jahudo]

335 I drop xRx/kyle and name hohum, DDD, ortolan as my suspicions, hohum/DDD ahead of ortolan.

Ok, I can believe that based on how you said you liked ortolan's interactions with kyle, and instead of calling him 'bad man' you said 'inscrutable man'. Which sounds more neutral.

Deadline was close. I was ambivalent between hohum and DDD. 336 I put the DDD vote out there to see if there was any interest, otherwise I was planning on pushing hohum.

If that's true than why start the DDD wagon instead of adding your support to the existing hohum wagon at that time?

381/384 I started thinking about possible scumteams with hohum. I doubted Locke and Sotty's reactions to the hohum case. "I read him as town" with no elaboration was suspect. Sotty had been misrepping the hohum case.

You had addressed that misrepresentation back in 351, before you switched your vote to hohum. Were you thinking that it made hohum looks scummier back then? Or did it take until after you switched your vote to consider implications of hohum being scum?

Now, you say that my suspicion of anti-hohum-case people could be an indirect way to detail the ortolan wagon. Two points of response: first, there was one person on the ortolan wagon at that point, with a day until deadline. If I was ortolan's scum buddy I don't think it'd be worrying me that much.

Well WIFOM, but that's a reasonable way to look at it. One thing you were doing around the same time was giving your reasons against a Jack lynch, which would be accomplishing the opposite of derailing an ortolan wagon.

Can I ask if you find Locke chainsawing Vi for pushing ortolan, and explicitly denouncing the possibility of the ortolan wagon happening in time more or less suspect?

I'll look at that next.

[Jahudo]

Looking back at Locke's early opinion of the ortolan wagon, I can see where he was trying to keep it from gaining momentum. There was the threat of a no lynch occurring if the various wagons didn't compromise into a lynch wagon, but I don't see how that's something you counter-act with preventing new wagon suggestions. That should actually help the compromise process, and further analysis down the line.

There's also the idea that he was against orto-wagon talk because he had a town read on orto. But if he was town I don't know how he'd then see Vi's vote as being suspicious.

Vote: Amished

[Jahudo]

Jahudo starts today going after ekiM.

Yes, because he was one of the people I didn't get much of a catch-up read on.

*puts locke/Amished at L-1*

Count again, Jack and Sotty. Its L-2. And Locke was one of my suspects day 1, whereas I have a town read on hohum.

[Jahudo]

But you dropped Locke as I quoted you to show.

And? I liked the ortolan wagon better day 1. Now that he flipped scum, one of his connections is Locke. The game changes once there's a scumflip, so I don't know why you think my change in focus is out of the ordinary.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: And? You had a night to look for connections, or if you were going to do that; you could've made your first post in the day about connections instead of going after ekiM in 552. But I come in, attack Percy/Zach and then you vote me for connections? Riiiiiight. Cause they just popped out of nowhere.. /headdesk

My first post was about connections, so I don't see your point. I started by saying who looked town based on ortolan's flip. Then I moved onto ekiM because I needed clarifications from him before I could read him as an orty-buddy or not. I don't think he is now.

Now based on my scumlist yesterday, Jack looks town and orto's lynched scum. Locke is my top suspect by default and by connections, hence my L-2 vote.

[Jahudo]

DDD's "case" on Sotty is meh, but Sotty's lack of involvement with ortolan is actually a really telling tell... I've seen it happen a lot, and I know when I'm scum, I either bus the hell out of my partners or try to ignore them for the most part.

Reck didn't mention ortolan for most of the game either, until he was around L-4/L-3 and then voted for him when orto was L-2.

Is there a reason why this tell does not apply to you in this game reck? I still think you're probably town but that quote looks really odd. Like the WIFOM talk and double standard on a tell.

-----------------------------

Oh, forgot about this too, since I'm not particularly paying attention to Percy-scum: Read this again and see if you can see this in Percy's play anytime in .. oh, you know.. the last 2 pages:

Here I'll clarify each of the points I raised.
1. Overdefensiveness - You note that defensiveness isn't a scumtell, but being overdefensive is a scumtell. I concede that this isn't one of my strongest points (in that it verges on playstyle criticism),

but he not only lashes out at anyone who attacks him

, he's also accused every person who has ever voted for him of being scum.

(bolding mine)

What's this reffering to? I couldn't find anything two pages from when that quote was made, or the last two pages overall.

Anyway Amished's town read on hohum looks pro-town to me. Whatever the opposite of opportunistic is. My vote is still because of Locke, not Amished.

Apart from my Amished vote, I like DDD's case on Sotty the most. She largely ignored ortolan only to jump on late with little reasoning. I don't understand the tone part but otherwise its a good case, so my vote would be there if it wasn't where it is.

[Jahudo]

EBWOP: I've had my reck read confused with something else today. I thought I had cleared him for his early day 1 play but I remember now that it had hinged on something I couldn't prove/dis-prove. So I can see reck as possible scum, and his orto connections are about the same as Sotty which makes him a good wagon today.

[Jahudo]

Your activity doesn't explain why ortolan was one of only a few people you didn't mention until right before deadline. After you unvoted Zach and before your threatening to replace out on March 29 (after that your content picked up because of deadline), you gave opinions on Vi, Sotty, hohum, flinter/Jack, kyle, DDD.

That leaves ortolan, Percy, ekiM and Locke. And in your catch-up post before deadline you put Percy, ekiM and Locke in your "won't lynch today" section so we might think you had found them town throughout the day and didn't have to mention their play because its called "scumhunting" not townhunting.

And most of your points against ortolan referenced the early part of the game where you were talking about Vi, Sotty, hohum, flinter. So I am questioning why you didn't mention this:

ort votes me in iso1, then votes me again in iso2... it's like he's not even really paying attention to what's going on and is just latching onto the most viable scum candidate at the time. You know who plays like that? Scum. He also refuses to put a vote down on hohum until hohum forces it out of him. Then suddenly, it's between hohum and Jack for him, and he never really explains why he suddenly dropped my wagon so quickly.

When you were still active back then and it involved you. I could see ortolan doing those things to a scumbuddy.

[Jahudo]

But still I would like to know what singles me out over the others.

These two quotes:

Ort seems to just fall into his hohum vote after being goaded into it. He also quickly abandons it. I don't like that that whole exchange.

The way Ort fell into his Hohum vote and then abandoned it is scummy to me.

The first is made after the event happens, and you don't say why you don't like the exchange and you haven't called it scummy yet. The second is after Vi votes ortolan, and without acknowledging that something in the event had changed for you, you call it scummy. No further explanation.

So where did the change of opinion happen?

-------------------------

Open question. How likely is it that Cobalt was bussed by both scumpartners, given the circumstances?

Oh, so there's two scumpartners?

Bussed because of ortolan or because Cobalt is Cobalt? I think it depends more on if a player likes to bus, than if it was the "right move" for scum. Because with deadline chaos they might have felt they could shift momentum or roll with the tide.

I think it looks like Reck and Sotty rolled along too easily, whereas Locke's defense against the wagon felt like he was defending someone he didn't have a real town read on:

As for Ortolan, I think he's made some easy votes on Reckoner and Flinter and hasn't offered much else.

That's not a town tell.

I also really don't see the ortolan case. I agree with his earlier point about Reckoner's style as town and I don't think he's been lurking a great deal either.

His opinion on ortolan's activity changes. Before he said ortolan hasn't offered much else (see: active lurking), but then says ortolan hasn't been lurking a great deal. No explanation of why he changed his mind.

you suggested that ortolan going after the VIs was scummy; on the same grounds, what do you make of ekiM's early post where he listed kyle, Reck and myself in his scummy category?

Here he defends ortolan's easy votes, whereas the first quote he didn't go out of his way to call it a null read.

[Jahudo]

Oh, so there's two scumpartners?

What were you getting at with this comment?

lol, reactions

[Jahudo]

That's true. I only have 5 more posts than Amished, counting this one, and I've been around a week longer. He's active.

[Jahudo]

Jack: Is anyone playing rude? Is that a good tell for you today?

[Jahudo]

I still don't understand the hohum case. Him and orts were at odds early, starting when orts was tearing down hohum's case on Percy. I don't see the scum benefit for that. The Post 186, Post 187 exchange did not look like distancing either. Hohum was egging orts off the main wagon and onto him.

I must be slow, but I don't see a change of opinion. “I don't like it” and “it's scummy” are the same thing.

Who knows what "I don't like it" means? Its not quantified in a way that separates the exchange from bad town behavior and scummy behavior. When you think its scummy, you vote or say its scummy. When you say its counter-productive, and maybe town-on-town attack, you could say you don't like it. You could also mean scummy, but who knows? Its convenient that no one knows but you until orts is ready for a lynch.

[Jahudo]

Vi, so you think maybe hohum's was intention was to distancing by making himself look worse? I just thought hohum was abrasive no matter what alignment he was. Also I don't know what I'm looking at with that link and quote.

[Jahudo]

Where have I defended Percy?

but with the 2.5 days that he had before I even replaced in, he could've put up a case against Locke during that time since I believe it's more beneficial to look for scum connections instead of (essentially) picking out somebody and saying "oh, they're town because of this scum!"

I didn't start off calling him town, I started off questioning him because I thought he might've been scum.

which doesn't give credit to the scum player either since good scum attack each other anyways (which was the gist of why ekiM was cleared for Jahudo at the start of the day).

Am I the scum player in this analogy? Who am I attacking?

[Jahudo]

My first post of the day was an hour after ortolan flipped scum. How was I supposed to have all my ortolan-connection analysis done by that point? I said I was re-reading the thread. Depending on how ekiM answered my questions, I might've still thought he was suspicions. Unfortunately Locke cannot answer any questions, so it may not be fair to Amished but I have a better feeling on him than any other wagons.

My case on Amished is non-existent though, its just Locke, so maybe I'll look again at Percy and hohum. I just have a good gut feeling on them tho.

[Jahudo]

Also, the tone that I got from your post (the connections one) was that you fully thought ekiM was scum; not that you were really questioning him.

Well I didn't vote him, just asked him questions. I think that speaks for itself. Frankly I thought my first ekiM post was mostly IIoA and the question of how he went from Point A to Point B.

Try again with your next excuse since that post (against ekiM) took all of one hour to put together. 2.5 days later when I replace in gives you enough time to put another one together.

The 2.5 days doesn't refer to when Locke replaced out, which was actually about 14 hours after my first ekiM post. In that 14 hours I was busy with other games or life, etc. I didn't know Locke would replace out, so I didn't know I had to rush out a case on him.

[Jahudo]

Reck, you like meta right? What is your meta on kyle?

[Jahudo]

Kyle is fail. Regardless of alignment.

What happened to this?

I don't know that kyle's scum. I don't THINK he is because he's played with his town meta and not his scum meta this game.

Then how did this become a good case for you:

kyle99's play was just awful - a series of posts saying "Sorry, I'll catch up" and "I agree with XXX" followed by a vote on whoever XXX's target was.

When you had previously said this:

I mean, kyle did replace out of that game, so I doubt he cared to stay until the ending.

And I disagree that kyle is scum. I'd prefer to lynch Sotty or maybe hohum today.

----------------------------

you’d think that if he had a good read on me as he replaced in he would’ve then laid out the case against me other than playstyle...

I usually expect more pushback especially from town.

I replaced into the game with three days until deadline (the deadline before it was extended), so my reading and cases were haphazard. Your playstyle did stick out easier than the others, and it took a little while to see the rationale behind it.

[Jahudo]

Jahudo has done quite a bit to reconcile that with some good play and excellent scumhunting, though.

You're flip-flopping too much now for it to be a lack of activity. You're read changes are based on no visible evidence, and the only conclusions I can think of are A) you're OMGUSing me, or B) wagon-hopping and hoping your aggressive/lazy "playstyle" won't be scrutinized. Regardless, you're my top suspect.

unvote;
Vote: xRECKONERx

[Jahudo]

Hey 'hudo. How likely is xRx to be lynched IYO?

Its possible some people not on his wagon aren't opposed to it now, or will later change their minds in favor of his lynch. My vote switch was based on finding him scummy, and not finding the Amished part of Amished-Locke scummy.

Vi, are you done with your re-read?

[Jahudo]

Now based on my scumlist yesterday, Jack looks town and orto's lynched scum. Locke is my top suspect by default and by connections, hence my L-2 vote.

So why didn't you vote him right away? You have also switched to your vote Rec near deadline, do you believe him to be scummier than Amished?

My first post of day 2 explained that I was still reading to get a solid feel of the game. When I replaced into the game I first did a quick read to just get my gut suspicions down on paper. Then I went back and made posts to explain these suspicions, and that was mostly looking at ISOs and going into page-by-page reads for a few pages laid together. And when I said suspect by default, you can go back and see that my read on Locke was the weakest one, and would have needed more points for me to pursue on its own for day 2.

There was basically no night, so the start of day two was when I looked back at the last pages of day 1 to start looking for connections to ortolan, since that would top any case I had without connections. ekiM was the first to really interest me, followed by Locke which I was reading simultaniously. So I put the ekiM post in and took a break. Less than a day later and Locke replaces out. I wasn't under pressure to put out a Locke case, so I felt no need to move him up.

What do you think of the wagons that are going on right now (that people are actually on)?

Sure, I'll join whoever to save myself since its almost deadline.

[Jahudo]

I only know my own alignment.

[Jahudo]

Like i've said before, I thought hohum's locked on vote was something scum wouldn't do. I figured they'd want to leave themselves open to several lynches. But 473 does make the "unlocking" look more suspicious in hindsight, than it does him realizing its deadline and reck has no support.

ITT townies have ADHD.

We're headed in a general direction of fucking ourselves.

but since I no longer have xRec wagon support

unvote

and I'm going to use a day or so to catch up and post.

He could be referring to the ortolan wagon being the general direction, since it was the only one gaining new steam before his post. Its possible he was trying to discredit the wagon. We don't know where he would have voted, because he had his V/LA accident right after that.

And its hypocritical to his own scumtells that he's lurking here today, because he called out reck for lurking day 1.

So this new stuff does wipe away the reasons I found hohum town.

unvote;
Vote: hohum

[Jahudo]

I haven't received much, if any, questions from people on my wagon. So this is just responding to everything.

Here's what Jack has said about kyle and me.

Xreck and Kyle's early posting I'm reading as scumbuddy. Kyle's flinter vote post is scummy,

What is scummy about his flinter vote post? Do you still see the possibility of me and reck being scum together?

Vote:Jahudo

No reasoning followed this vote at the start of day 2. I assumed it was based on his original scumlist, but he hasn't elaborated on why place the vote then since then.

Jahudo seemed scummiest to start and could be my main choice, but hohum turning up with just a vote is annoying.

No reasoning behind this statement.

Jahudo starts today going after ekiM.

*puts locke/Amished at L-1*


Jahudo is likely scum.

It was L-2, so how close were you paying attention? I've already explained why I went over ekiM, and why I didn't see the need to rush out a post on Locke. How is that still scummy, besides the coincidence that Amished gained votes while my focus was elsewhere? It I was trying to wait for the viable lynch, why wouldn't I have stayed home altogether instead of focusing on ekiM, who had no viability at the time?

---------------
---------------

Here's what reckoner has said about kyle and me. He still called kyle town after he replaced out, then switched his meta based on nothing. He also switched his opinion on me. First saying I had good play and excellent scumhunting, then saying I didn't do anything to convince him otherwise. His vote post explains nothing. His OMGUS tell is misrepresentation on my vote, because my suspicion is not based on his vote but rather the reasoning behind it. So I would be suspicious of the reasoning no matter who it was placed on.

I don't know that kyle's scum. I don't THINK he is because he's played with his town meta and not his scum meta this game.

I disagree that kyle is scum. I'd prefer to lynch Sotty or maybe hohum today.

Jahudo/kyle99 (kyle99's play was just awful - a series of posts saying "Sorry, I'll catch up" and "I agree with XXX" followed by a vote on whoever XXX's target was. Jahudo has done quite a bit to reconcile that with some good play and excellent scumhunting, though.)

Am I the scum player in this analogy? Who am I attacking?

...Seriously?

Unvote, Vote: Jahudo

Kyle is fail. Regardless of alignment.

kyle's fail meta as town is much much worse than his fail meta as scum. Seriously. He actually plays better (less scummy) as scum. So at first it just seemed like happy go lucky idiotic kyle-town. But his play being as bad as it was at the end, and then replacing out... and you not doing much of anything to convince me otherwise...

Nah, you're scum, regardless of how little I give a flying fuck about this game. But sweet OMGUS vote.

---------------
---------------

Here's what DDD has said of kyle and me. The initial kyle suspicions are valid, but I don't see why he thinks ortolan was trying to bus kyle. Its also fine if he thinks I didn't take ownership of the Amished wagon, since I was on it for Locke. But I feel like I did take ownership of the "Locke is scummy" read.

Kyle starts the game pretty squishy. He tosses an RVS vote onto Reck and then next thing unvotes him with a bizarre meta defense for his second post in the game. He doesn’t even follow that up with a vote, just fos’es Zach for nothing major. This initially startled me on my reread that kyle seemed indecisive which to a degree is a town-tell, but I went back and checked Mayor Mafia and he did the same thing in that game as scum which alleviated that concern that I was wrong. He then further goes after another soft target in flinter and is just generally not involved in the game.

These all seem like valid suspicions of kyle.

He then draws a vote from ortolan for kyle’s “tactical replacement” which I saw ortolan butcher to his death in a previous game and basically do the same here. (Incidentally, I don’t ever need to play with that fucking schmuck again). So he knows it’s a reliable tell and I think it’s perfectly reasonable that he was willing to throw a scum partner overboard at that point; it would earn him a fair amount of credibility for calling the scenario like he did and at that point kyle hadn’t been an asset at all and he had no clue if his replacement would be any better.

Ortolan was the first person to post after kyle replaced out, so kyle wasn't under any pressure yet and had a reasonable excuse for leaving because he left in another game. It just looks like ortolan was voting opportunistically because kyle couldn't answer back.

I find it a little curious that day two started up and he immediately started up with analysis on Mike, but then just as quickly flops over to Locke/Amished. Since then I really haven’t seen a push from him for an Amished lynch which could suggest that he really doesn’t want to take ownership of it.

I've already explained why I went after ekiM first, and I don't see how its a valid tell. As for not taking ownership of the Amished wagon, that's a valid point. My reasoning for being on the wagons was Locke's connection to ortolan. The wagon was also based on Locke, since it was at L-3 when Amished replaced in.

---------------
---------------

Here's what Amished has said about kyle and me. His kyle read is dependent on Percy being scum. Some of his read on me seems dependent on Percy or Zach being scum. He doesn't explain how I "chainsawed" for Percy, so this looks like complete fabrication.

This is only odd because Percy basically gives kyle a free pass based solely on meta, but doesn't give a shit about the meta of hohum (lazy, overall) and xRx (erratic). Inconsistent stances on players for the same reason = scumz Very Happy Oh, and guess who replaced kyle. Yep, that's right, it's Jahudo who voted for me after calling out Percy Very Happy

This reads like if Percy is scum, then kyle is more likely to be scum. But not the other way around.

I could see a possibility where I'm wrong about one of Percy/Zach and Jahudo is attacking me for pegging a scummate (and I'm more certain about Percy anyways).

This also reads like my alignment hinges on Percy or Zach being scum, not the other way around.

with Jahudo sitting in the "not voting" category to see if there would be more support for any wagon and hop on that.

I almost always make a case before I vote, not the other way around. And I was focused on ekiM, so I don't see how I was sitting back and waiting for a wagon to form.

You had a night to look for connections, or if you were going to do that; you could've made your first post in the day about connections instead of going after ekiM in 552

Amished doesn't take into consideration the circumstances of this game. There was no night.

I thought Percy + Zach replacing in just based on gut for both of them; but due to responses from most of you and Jah's voting of me I switched out Zach for Jah.

This doesn't sound like a genuine read, because you could backtrack and say that other people are forming your read on me.

Jahudo voted for me after I replaced in; and two and a half real-life days after the start of the day.

Once again, there was no night and I explained how I went about re-read the connections to ortolan that occurred at the end of the day.

I feel that he's chainsawing for Percy (possibly trying to play Percy-town as thinking he'll vote for me and put me at L-1 or something, but that's less likely in my eyes).

Where has this happened? I do not remember defending Percy.

His given reasoning is Locke's associative play to Ortolan; but with the 2.5 days that he had before I even replaced in, he could've put up a case against Locke during that time since I believe it's more beneficial to look for scum connections instead of (essentially) picking out somebody and saying "oh, they're town because of this scum!" which doesn't give credit to the scum player either since good scum attack each other anyways (which was the gist of why ekiM was cleared for Jahudo at the start of the day).

This is not what happened. I went into my ekiM questioning thinking I found a connection to ortolan.

[Jahudo]

Mod: Can you delete one of my double-posts?

Sure. I am a card carrying member of the Site Ghosts Reform Party. ~The mod.

I guess Sotty is the tie-breaker, assuming hohum reappears and voting me. Sotty, who do you think is scummier: me or hohum?

-I would rather lynch Jahudo over Percy
-I would be willing to settle for a Hohum lynch seeing as he posted just enough to avoid being replaced.

[Jahudo]

My town reads are Jack, Zach, Percy, Vi, DDD, ekiM. If I called any of them suspicious before, I'm pretty sure I already explained how those suspicions went away.

[Jahudo]

My town reads are Jack, Zach, Percy, Vi, DDD, ekiM. If I called any of them suspicious before, I'm pretty sure I already explained how those suspicions went away.

[Jahudo]

OMG Sotty you're awesome! I enjoyed reading the QT when it was just you left. It made for a good commentary when I kept thinking we were running out of mislynches and you'd be next. Way to go.

[Jahudo]

The lack of a night 1 was really hard to deal with, compounded with getting votes at the start of the day and not having a plan of how I wanted to deal with it. Day 2 was the most frustrated I've been in a game.

I was really worried over having Jah hate me forever after that (That and getting lynched the next day and looking like a grade A idiot.)

Its okay, I was hoping you'd bus me at that point. I thought it could get you a couple of days, though I had felt we would need an SK to tip the balance back in our favor.