Mini 933: LRCM - Broken, restart running in new thread

[Fishythefish]

/confirm

[Fishythefish]

@Fishy
Very fishy. Har har.

A new record time for this excellent pun!

vote: DTMaster

. His post is trying altogether to hard to look like a normal jokey part of the RVS. Particularly the last paragraph. He's trying to make us think he's one of us. Also, no one votes me and gets away with it.

[Fishythefish]

@Miles: in 168, you FoSsed EdFrost. If I understand it, that was because of the same post UK and SP have criticised. Why is that post (144) scummy?

Myself, that post wouldn't have jumped out at me. Reading it knowing that other people see scumtells there, there are things which I can convince myself I think you are talking about.

[Fishythefish]

Lynching the mod seems like a good way to waste a day. And possibly get rid of flavour or votecounts or something. I really can't see it being protown, unless we have very compelling info.

Specifically Mister Fishy, I found [EdFrost's 144] contradictory and a bit of a dry accusation.
He is accusing me of something that almost everyone was doing to that point. He was accusing me of joking around and "sucking up" as he put it. Later in the same post, Mister Frosty makes a joke. I just found the whole post kind of weird. If you pay attention to the first 6 or 7 pages, most people are just joking around. At the very least I asked a question to kick some discussion off.

Does that answer your question Mister Fishy?

I don't see any contradictions in his post. What do you mean by "dry accusation"? EdF attacked you for

only

joking, which he can't really be accused of.
I understand that you think it's weird to attack someone for joking around early on, when that's quite common. Why do you think it's scummy?
This reasoning looks quite jumbled and post hoc to me. Feels like MP was using UK and SP's suspicions to jump on a player who had attacked him.

unvote, vote: MilesPrower

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: danakillsu

I agree that dana's reason for his townread is poor, and my immediate reaction to a three player townlist with no scumreads is that it's an odd an possibly scummy way to start a game, as town reads are unlikely to generate discussion either about those players or about you. I think his 228 and 230 are poor defences; the first is a fairly irrelevant AtE, the second an attempt to dismiss the votes on him by explaining them through the other players' overzealousness.

[Fishythefish]

Miles is wrong. The mods aren't playing in this game. But I'd like to hear what his "relationship" to them is, since it was apparently in his PM. The wagon on me is sad, considering what they have on me. But this latest statement by Miles irks me, so I'll

unvote (not sure that was necessary, but whatever)
vote: Miles

This is rolefishing. And it's the bad kind of rolefishing - it was plausible that MP would answer this, and that that would be a bad thing.

I don't want my perceived meta to "protect" me. Honestly, if you think I'm scum, vote for me. But I know the truth about whether the mods are players, and I think Miles is too loosely paraphrasing his PM. Man, just because I wanted to help town by pointing out that Miles was wrong, I get a sizeable wagon on me! What's the world coming to?

unvote

because my vote obviously isn't going to pressure Miles into telling me more specifically what the mod told him. (And that was it's intended result)

More strawmanning of dana's wagon here. The wagon on him is not primarily for pointing out Miles was wrong. Playing the "no idea why you're all voting me " card very strongly. Open admission of wanting to know what MP is claiming.

I like my vote atm.

Other things:
DiscoRoboto: is dana scum? "Dumb town or caught scum" isn't much of a read. If he's town, how is he being dumb? How is he acting like scum who's been caught. You post makes me feel like you aren't really trying to read dana.

If a vig exists, and doesn't have any particularly exciting scumreads, he could consider taking a pop at a mod.

[Fishythefish]

unvote

. a lot has happened since I last posted, and I am currently not in a fit state to make decisions.

[Fishythefish]

There's no particular reason to believe dana's claim. If he really is a lynchee, there's no reason it has any bearing on his alignment. If he really is a town lynchee, that seems a very dangerous role to be around later in the game, and no way will he get killed by scum.

vote: danakillsu

[Fishythefish]

@Fishy
Um, if he's the town lynchee, yes the lyncher won his self win condition. However as Nikanor said, the lyncher is at a lower priority in the scum hunting picture. I kind of dislike your reasoning to join in on this wagon because you aren't making a distinction between:

scummy-dana versus townie-dana.

If he really is a town lynchee, that seems a very dangerous role to be around later in the game, and no way will he get killed by scum.

This part I dislike ^^.

Literally, it's fishy.

What? I did make the distinction between scum-dana and town-dana. My post is saying:
- If dana is scum (lynchee or not), he needs lynching (I kind of assumed this).
- If dana is town, he's going to be very dangerous for us later on. Getting him out of the way now is by no means a disaster. You say this is "fishy" - but why do you think it's wrong?
- I don't think dana's claim has much bearing on his alignment, and even if it's true he's not actually very useful. The reasons for voting him are still valid, and I'm happy for his lynch to happen.

[Fishythefish]

- My vote on DtMaster was a nearly random vote. I got a bad feel from his RVS post. If you disagree, fair enough.
- There's a difference between talking as part of the town, which is what I did, and saying pointless things which sound like normal things for townies to say, which is what I felt DT was doing.
- "No one votes me and gets away with it" was a joke. I didn't think anyone would think it was an actual reason.
- On EdFrost, I was saying that I thought I knew what SP and UK were talking about, but I didn't find the post very scummy myself.
- I'm lazy. What is your point about lynching the mod that applies to me as well as someone esle?
- I don't think my votes on Miles or dana were wishy-washy. I don't think moving my vote around automatically makes it wishy-washy. Early in the game, I have no strong scumreads, and I'm happy to move my vote fairly freely to whoever is most likely scum, which can change quickly.
- Unless I'm mistaken, the rolefishing from dana wasn't explained by his role at that point.
- The thing I say is "possibly scummy" in my original vote for dana wasn't my main point against him (it was a fairly unbelievable townread).
- Re: my treatment of the claim. I think, when confronted by any claim, it's natural and right to think:
1) Is this claim likely to be true?
2) What are the benefits of lynching/not lynching if it's real?
3) What are the benefits of lynching/not lynching if it's fake?
Here, the answers are "no real evidence", "lynching is a mislynch, but not a terrible one (see below)", and (as always), "we lynch scum". I think that all these are important in making the right decision.
Re: mislynching a lynchee. The reasons a lynchee becomes more dangerous later is his lyncher can team up with the scum. Of course lynching townies is a bad thing. But lynching some townies is worse than lynching others - I'd have to be much more certain to lynch a claimed cop than a claimed lynchee. This doesn't mean I'm happy to mislynch.

[Fishythefish]

It is a horrific misrepresentation to take this argument:
1. dana might be a town lynchee, or he might not be.
2. If he isn't, he needs to die.
3. Even if he is, it's no great loss.
and turn it into this argument:
1. DIE DANA TOWN LYNCHEE DIE DIE DIE.
I'm not proposing lynching a confirmed town player. I'm proposing lynching a player who I find likely scum, and whose death won't be a disaster for the town. dana's 363 takes my "if he's town, it's no great loss" bit, and implies that I believe his claim and want to lynch him anyway. Unfortunately for that particular argument, that's nowhere in my posts. Saying that the worse case scenario isn't that bad is not tantamount to saying I'd take it given the choice, and it's not saying I believe it to be the case.

Incidentally:

@UK
Maybe Fishy doesn't say exactly that, but he does say that it wouldn't be a bad idea to lynch me now, even if I was a confirmed lynchee.
My point about the reasons people are voting for me is that they come up with so many lame reasons that they begin to contradict each other.

After UK points out the initial misrep, dana's misrep just becomes more subtle (no! I'm saying that out of town sided roles, lynchee is one of the least bad lynches. NOT that it's a good lynch). And then changes his point

completely

. This is horrible.

Having said all that, I can easily imagine a lynchee working themselves up to paranoia about someone attacking them. I'm not at all sure that this behaviour is a scumtell at this point.

So, responding to that case again:
iso 1: I found his post a little forced, and cast a not-quite-completely random vote based on that. If you disagree, then meh.
iso 2: I felt that Miles might just be shamelessly bandwagoning behind two players who seemed certain. I actually said that I thought I knew what their cryptic nonsense was about, but didn't find it scummy.
iso 3: Seriously, read that EdFrost wagon. Clearly the most information to be gained there was by pressing MP on his reasons for voting, not telling SP and UK to let him off the hook by giving him reasons. When MP responded, I felt he might well be pulling things out of his ass to disguise total wagon-hopping - do you really think that's an unrealistic interpretation? Why should I have asked the others about their cases? I wasn't on him for voting Ed, but for a vote with no reasoning.
iso 4: Not mentioning MP's response was an oversight. In fact, looking back, it's rather horrible - he followed UK and SP's hints that they were finding Ed scummy, and jumped on it. His defense is that he didn't jump on a bw? When he voted, there may as well have been a bw. He get's a renewed FoS from me. And yeah, that's a fair point, I feel silly.
iso 6: If you think I'm scum with Dana, that's fine. I'll fight that battle tomorrow. For now, Dana needs lynching.
iso 7&8: See above. Thinking about the possibility that Dana is town, and what happens if we lynch him, neither says I think that is the case nor that I think it's desirable.

You seem to think I'm scum who knows that my scumpartner Dana is going to flip town, which doesn't gel very well.

I notice that you don't even mention the possibility that I'm a Dana-lyncher. It doesn't seem to have crossed your mind. Why is that, given that you think I'm attacking a claimed lynchee with terrible arguments? Could it be because you know he isn't a lynchee at all?

[Fishythefish]

One. More. Time.

In fact, have an equation:
Goodness of dana's lynch = (Chance of danascum)*(goodness of dana lynch if scum) + (Chance of danatown)*(goodness of dana lynch if town)
IMO:
Chance of danascum = High
Goodness of dana lynch if scum = Awesome
Chance of danatown = Low
Goodness of dana lynch if town = Bad, but for a town lynch, not that bad.
And this last one

matters

. If dana was a claimed cop, and I had the same scumread on him, I wouldn't want a lynch on him, because the risk associated with that would be much higher. That's why I mention the possibility that dana is town.
Lynchees are dangerous later in the game because they make lynchers into scum.
I given reasons several times why I find dana scummy. Dana's claim does not change these (with the exception of rolefishing). 389 doesn't outline my case

[Fishythefish]

Fishy's reasoning puts lynchees in a horrible position. If I am a lynchee (from his point of view) I still shouldn't have claimed lynchee. I should have lied about my role and made up some BS thing that could easily be disproven, like cop.

The same logic goes for VT; VT claims tend to get lynched, whereas cop claims don't. The usual belief is that they should still claim VT, because lying tends to hurt the town more in the long run (even if they avoid the lynch for that day).

[Fishythefish]

Yep (or rather, assuming protown lynchee). Protown roles fakeclaiming on day 1 is not a good long term plan.

[Fishythefish]

dana is a good lynch. Three possibilities here (and I think all are very possible).
- Genuine lyncher who doesn't know target. Has no motivation to help the town. In some circumstances, will be playing with an antitown win con (eg. imagine massclaim - with all the links, we'll get one player left over who must be dana's lynchee).
- Genuine lyncher who does know target. Has motivation to guide scumhunting towards that target. In all circumstances, will be playing with an antitown win con.
- Scum. Townclaim having failed, dana moves on to third party claim.
The second and third possibilities should be lynch on sight. The first is harder to call, but leaving a lyncher who could work out their target alive could really come back to bite us in the endgame. All in all, I'm very happy to lynch dana.

@mod:

I'm V/LA this Friday 12th-Monday 15th.

[Fishythefish]

How so? Obviously, I won't even be able to lynch the lynchee, because the town won't let me unless they're REALLY stupid. I don't think anyone can present a valid risk inherent in me being in this game. What harm can I do as a third party whose role everyone knows and that has no night action?

To all intents and purposes, if your lynchee is town, you are scum. Because if {dana and scum} outnumbers the town, we lose because they help you lynch your lynchee. Near lylo, a lyncher is an enormous and unacceptable threat to the town.

[Fishythefish]

V/LA from now until Monday.

Lynch dana for me.

[Fishythefish]

Why the smash wagon? I don't see anything to make me think he's scum.

I tend to think that the lovers claim should not affect our lynch much either way.

I need to get me some scumreads.

[Fishythefish]

re-/in