Mini 897 - OpenSource Mafia - Game over!!

[Fishythefish]

/confirm

[Fishythefish]

I see no reason not to claim. I'm a miller. Since my rolename is also scumtastic, here's the (paraphrased) flavour -
I'm a CrApple User. I'm too lazy to switch to Linux, even though I think it's awesome. And at least CrApple's better than WinBlows.

vote: Pomegranate

for giving a related voting reason to iec. Smacks of being too scared to come up with an original random voting reason, for fear of being called scummy.

[Fishythefish]

A note to iec - typically, third party roles investigate as innocent to cops. I know this.

What happened to RVS?

My vote was never random.

Josh gives a potentially serious reason for his vote, and then distances from it. He's keeping his options open as to whether this is a random vote. His next two posts irk me, as well. They feel very like a totally unwarranted defense of Vaya.

unvote, vote: Josh

[Fishythefish]

Ya, but given that you have claimed Miller and have 3rd party-ish flavor, it's impossible that you are checks-innocent-3rd. Or at least rather unlikely.

Yes, that's more or less what I mean. I agree my flavour is third party looking. What I'm saying is that if I am third party, I'm a third party who knows they investigate guilty, which is kinda rare.

Whatever. As you origingally implied, judge me on my posts.

A note to iec - typically, third party roles investigate as innocent to cops. I know this.

Ya, but given that you have claimed Miller and have 3rd party-ish flavor, it's impossible that you are checks-innocent-3rd. Or at least rather unlikely.

Might I remind you this is a bastard game. NOTHING is impossible, and I

can't

won't say anymore about that right now.


Okay, yes, it WAS a random vote; none of the "reasons" I gave are real reasons. Back off, guys, it's just a game..... okay?

unvote

It felt to my like your first reason was at least semireal - Glork

was

being unhelpful. "It's just a game" is about the worst reason for stopping voting someone you can give, and really doesn't feel right to me. Softclaim of some sort of privileged setup knowledge (unless I've got the wrong end of the stick) seems wrong as well for town.
I like my vote where it is.

On random voting: my belief is that the "random vote stage" is misnamed. There's always something to vote on, however early in the game. You should always attempt to vote for the scummiest player; it's just that early in the game that's necessarily going to be a much weaker suspicion. This isn't a reason I think Josh is scum - people do vote genuinely for no reason, I just think it's a bad thing.

[Fishythefish]

I agree with Glork that an SB fullclaim would be nice. Knowing the details of the role would help us think about the possible uses much better. It's up to SB whether to claim, but if she isn't going to I'd like there to be a good reason later on.

If not, I'd still like this answered -
At SB - if you used your role, it had an effect but did not change an alignment, would you feel the mod had lied to you?

[Fishythefish]

Not much time today I'm afraid; tomorrow should be better.

I don't think that lurking is null if you surface to make contributions that aren't related to scumhunting.
@Vaya: who is scum?

[Fishythefish]

MafiaSSK: if Vaya is scum, you are a very, very obvious target tonight already. With this in mind, a fullclaim seems natural. If you aren't prepared to fullclaim, and we lynch Vaya, and Vaya is town, tomorrow I will be voting for your lynch unless you both have a convincing reason to declare Vaya 99% scum (a huge certainty, particularly in a bastard game) AND a convincing reason why a fullclaim today was bad - something more than "to avoid NK".

Having said that, I am willing to vote Vaya based only on the information you have provided so far, after you've registered the above.

[Fishythefish]

@Kitten: I'm not sure I buy your change of stance on Josh. He made some scummy posts, which make him more likely scum. How does your feeling that his posts will improve make him less likely scum?

[Fishythefish]

Gut, honestly. Something feels...not scummy about Josh despite my earlier stance. I understand if that's not enough for you.

And plus, I want to see where this Socio thing goes ^-^.

OK. I'm fine with gut reads, and I think I can see where this one comes from. This isn't really what you said originally, but I can see how one became the other.

Vaya and SSK do NOT get lynched today.
SSK, do NOT fullclaim today.
Any protective role that exists, please protect SSK from kills.
I think D2 will be quite fruitful.

Before it's asked, yes, I have official reasons to believe this is the best course of action.

This is interesting.

You are claiming that you have reason to believe that a result that SSK thinks is 99% accurate is false.

Can you give us anything about the type of your information? It seems extraordinary that you believe you know SSK's info is wrong without knowing what it is, or anything at all about Vaya.

If you are right in your suspicions as to the meaning of your role pm and SSK's investigation, is it null, or does it mean Vaya is definitely town?

I think its worth repeating that this is a partial reveal game. I do have to wonder if SSK is scum expecting to get away with this because of that.

Seems relatively unlikely, given that as yet we have no idea what "partial reveal" will mean.

I'm a great fan of SP's Post 245. I think a Vaya/Iec team is currently very likely.

Without answering Glork's rhetorical question, I'd say that the "as scum" bits might well depend on the nature of our partial reveal, which will be known after the lynch (assuming it is consistent).

Public Service Announcement:

In this game, it is a terrible idea to assume that someone is not a miller simply because they have not claimed miller. Claiming miller on another day is not a scum tell. If you are an investigative role and you got a guilty, it is highly likely that your result is wrong.

That is all.

"Highly likely" seems very strong. To my understanding, many millers do claim day 1. If I was a sanity guaranteed cop, I'd probably be about 80% sure of a guilty result.

@Iec: even if SSK's lack of memory is very surprising, I fail to see how it is a scumtell.

Currently torn between JL, Iec and Vaya.

[Fishythefish]

That's classified information.

It's also information which would help us make the right decision (if you being right wouldn't guarantee anything, I almost certainly want to lynch Vaya today). From my POV, it's hard to believe that the scum would benefit greatly from knowing that if you have interpreted your role right, and it applies in this case, Vaya is unconfirmed/town (mostly because I haven't got the foggiest what your role could be). If you disagree, that's fine, but as with SK I'll be wanting a good reason later on.

[Fishythefish]

OK. I'm happy to leave the Vaya-SSK-UK situation alone today. Both claims strike me as genuine.

unvote, vote: Iecerint

[Fishythefish]

@Fishy: Can you elaborate in your own words why you think a Vaya/Iec team is likely? Do you have anything to add to SP's thoughts on the matter?

Not much. While I dislike just using another player's argument, I find it very convincing - Iec's play reads like someone trying to derail the Vaya wagon, with his suspicions of SSK, subsequent attacks on SSK over the misremembering issue (which I still don't buy. The picture Iec is trying to sell is of SSK deciding to randomly throw out an accusation of defending buddies, and hoping it's true. I don't see anyone being that stupid), and his easy acceptance of UK's claim. The only thing I'd add is that I believed SSK was telling the truth, and I think that was the natural reaction (unprompted scum claims on day 1 just don't seem very likely)- so I find Iec's disbelief quite hard to swallow. Less relevantly, I feel similarly about his reaction to SB's claim.

[Fishythefish]

There could be a Windows cult versus the free Linux users, and SB being someone who can distribute Linux to brainwashed windows users. I'm guessing that the leaders of each cult can't be changed though :S.

This makes sense to me. What if there is no scum, and this game only qualifies as mafia because we are somehow led to believe there is, and it's really just a battle between Winblows/Linux/Crapple/whatever other factions have been mentioned? (I don't know much about bastard games on this site, but having no actual mafia to be a not-unheard of reason for calling a game bastard -- Pokerface's Bad Reveal Mafia comes to mind.)

@Everyone: Without giving away your role, do you think the above is at all a reasonable assumption, and if it is, should we still lynch today?

I'd say it's a possibility, but definitely not a "reasonable assumption". It's an attempt to outguess the mod, in a bastard game, on next to no evidence.

[Fishythefish]

I don't have time to catch up properly right now - Christmas is proving difficult. I'll have lots of time to catch up on the 29th at the latest, and probably before. Sorry.

[Fishythefish]

An overdue catchup is coming in ~12 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Have a catchup. Throughout, I’ve only looked at the game up to the point I’m at when commenting/answering, so what I say may be made less relevant by later events, and/or be repetition of what others have said. Sorry if this annoys anyone, I find it much easier to catch up this way.

@Fishy
{quote snipped}
Do you think Iec and SSK could both be scum, and this could just be aggressive distancing/bussing?

Unlikely, but possible – bussing of this serious, potentially lynch provoking kind is pretty rare.

I dislike the sequence of Pome-votes (305-7). It’s pretty odd that she wasn’t able to review/quote properly before posting, but this is just not the kind of thing I would ever assume is made up. Iec’s vote is horrible for a different reason – as I see it, his thoughts on Pome go:
302: Who knows anything about Pome? I’ll think about her after her next post.
307: I said I’d wait for Pome to post before voting, and she posted,

vote

I think that 307 was iec wanting to jump on the wagon, and claiming to have given a reason before when he hadn’t. It stinks.

FoS SSK, JL, iec

for this.

SP’s 316 and 323 are interesting.

In iec’s argument with UK, the former seems to be totally wrong. And trying to claim that an argument is 2Town4Town when it isn’t is both misrepping

and

claiming you are very town.

In my opinion, your past actions and trying to look townie should impact only a tiny on you play – I do sometimes check to see whether things I’m about to post conflict wildly with things I’ve said before. If they do, I think about why that is, and try to explain it. Similarly, I’d try to make sure that a vote that could be perceived as OMGUS is particularly well explained. I think not voting for someone because they are voting for you is scummy.

Vaya 356: Criticises JL for pretty much the same reason I do above. AFAIC, SSK is just as guilty of this, in the previous post. Why no comment on him?

Almaster’s attack on this point is interesting. Vaya attacks JL, and Almaster launches an impressive chainsaw at Vaya:

I don't think JL's reason for joining the Pom wagon was bad at all. Seems very applicable to me.

No, I'd say it was pretty bad. Pom claimed that she couldn't make a better post at the time do to having issues with the site, which seems understandable enough to me. I don't see any grounds for assuming she is lying or just using it as an excuse not to contribute much, and not that she's simply being honest about.

Also, it seems like he's just piggybacking SSK's reason for adding a pressure vote to Pom with his vote. All in all, that last vote of his just feels to me like scum jumping on a wagon.

IIRC, the solution to that problem was called Notepad.exe. Or Microsoft Word. Or Google Docs. Or any text editor ever. The excuse was bad, stop defending it. If one of you flips scum I wouldn't be surprised if the other did too. Moreover, it's not like Pom has done more scumhunting now that the problem is fixed - the situation is the same. Now, I'm not saying JL is acting town at all - he's not. However, I am willing to give him a chance (e.g., a day or two) to post again before I switch my vote.

I still think that the attacks on Pom, including this one, are odd, because I just can’t see Pome’s excuse as something scum would do because they can’t be bothered to actually post. But even beside this, Almaster didn’t comment at all at the time of Pome’s defence. When JL was attacked, he reacted by linking Vaya to Pome. This is horrible. It looks like a tactic to scare Vaya off JL, particularly as Pome isn’t the most protown player.

My problem with Pome’s case on Almaster is that none of the things she cites Almaster for are actually good scumtells (particularly hypocrisy, in this form – just because I haven’t posted any content in 10 pages doesn’t mean I think it’s acceptable for other people to do the same). However, I agree that Almaster hasn’t done much scumhunting.

My problem with Almaster’s response is that it’s pretty much a blatant misrep. Which is fun, because it really didn’t need to be. Almaster accuses Pome of hypocrisy, because she is criticising his lack of posting. This is false, because Pome’s actually attacking his hypocrisy. He then says “Basically, what SSK said” – but SSK said that hyprocrisy isn’t a good scumtell. To then attack Pome for hypocrisy is a conflict, and this suggests to me that Almaster saw a defence of him and jumped on it without worrying about what it said.

The amount of scumhunting I've done > The amount of scumhunting you've done.

This is no defense, and doesn’t feel like something that town would write.

I think speculation about what SB should do is a bit weird. She knows that position, and with her role the flavour surrounding it is clearly absolutely vital to how she uses it.

Scumlist:
- JL. Poor attack on Pome, combined with active lurking.
- iec (particularly with Vaya). For some http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 55#2023555 old reasons, for the poor attack on Pome, for the misrepping of UK, and just because my gut screams he is scum. I really can’t pin this gut feeling down. On my to do list.
- Pome. For actively lurking.
- Almaster. Chainsaw defense of JL.
(- Vaya. Fits very well with JL and/or iec)
I'm up for a JL or iec lynch, and don't really mind which.

unvote, vote: Josh Lyman

[Fishythefish]

Biggest fence-sit ever.

Completely fair.

I think Pome's case was bad, and Almaster's response was a scummy misrep. That latter should have been included in my reasons for thinking Almaster is scummy. I think Pome's case is only slightly scummy - OMGUS fits better, and it's not a major factor in my read of her.

[Fishythefish]

It should be noted that, if I can count, JL is at L-1.

[Fishythefish]

*waits for josh to claim*

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

JL is in need of a prod.

[Fishythefish]

^This.

I think people should be thinking about hammering now. Deadline hits in three days, and we want a lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, "^this" was supposed to point at 510.

[Fishythefish]

Only JL's claim can prevent his lynch at this stage.
All the replacement needs to be able to do is claim.
I don't think it's a disastrous position to replace in to - reading 20 pages shouldn't be necessary.
For alternate lynches, iec has my vote.

[Fishythefish]

Flavour?

[Fishythefish]

Given that this is a bastard game, the risk of lynching a town cop is much less scary than it would otherwise be - because a cop is (on average) more likely to be weakened in some way. I'm keeping my vote on Faraday.

[Fishythefish]

I'm sorry I'm not giving this game much time. I'll be able to get up to speed soonish, but right now I don't really know what's going on.

[Fishythefish]

Firstly, sorry for my recent lack of attentiveness. Should be better from now on.

Given Glork’s information re partial flips, I agree that Faraday’s claim is looking good.

I dislike Pome’s vote for Phate far more than the others on the wagon. Reads like she is wagoning more for the wagon than the reasons.

However, Phate’s claim that he wants massclaim for role-related reasons

stinks

. If this is the case, why on earth didn’t you claim instead of suggest massclaim? Then we would have the same information as you, and would go for a massclaim, if that’s the right course. If your information is such that claiming first would make massclaim useless, why would you think that the town would go along with it? This claim makes no sense to me, and feels like scum trying to cite vague role related reasons because lots of other players have done so and been believed.

unvote, vote: Phate (L-1)

I'm happier with this lynch than a Pom lynch.

[Fishythefish]

I think somebody asked if I was specifically told I was a miller? The answer is yes.

My role PM strongly led me to believe that the town is broadly Linux, and that WinBlows are scum. I could understand if there were two large alignments, Linux and WinBlows, but it would clash with my pm if Crapple was a large alignment (unless, perhaps, it was a scum alignment).

Here's what seems likely to me: WinBlows vs Linux, with some conversion, and I investigate as guilty to both. God only knows what my win condition is in this situation, as there appear to be two towns. From my pm, I'd tentatively guess that I win with Linux.
Also possible: WinBlows + Linux (+me) vs. Crapple. The cops see everyone not with them as scum.
If Phate is lying: WinBlows vs. Linux
I'd feel cheated by Winblows vs. Linux vs. Crapple.

I still believe we should be lynching Phate. In any of the above scenarios, a WinBlows cop is no fun. Also, if Phate flips "innocent", that tells us a lot more about the setup than no lynch.

[Fishythefish]

So, ITT we have three cop-type roles. Two of them are identical for different OS's, one of them is completley different.

unvote, vote: Faraday

[Fishythefish]

So why are the two identical roles more likely to be the same alignment?

Frankly, I don't know what to be trying to lynch atm. The lack of information, combined with the mod's warning about flavour, means that setup speculation is, for the moment, very difficult indeed. The fact that we have three claimed cops, and two of them are the same, suggests that maybe the third, more boring cop is lying. If you are lying I want you dead. If everyone is telling the truth, I've absolutely no idea who I would lynch to get me nearer to my version of winning with the town, whatever town that may be.

[Fishythefish]

vote: Vaya

based on the above.

[Fishythefish]

Quite frankly, I'm lost in this game. I've been thinking too much about what the hell's going on, and not enough about who is scum. I'm drowning in IIOA.

There is an argument for massclaim. I very much it would break the setup, but it's possible we might figure out what the hell is going on.

However, we already know several roles, and there's no clue that we are anywhere near working anything out.

Tonight, if I get time, I'll go and read the whole game and work out who the hell the scum are.

[Fishythefish]

Vaya catches some posts of Glork that make it very likely he wanted us to think he was a death miller. The fact that he was going to full claim day 2 also means it’s likely he was telling the truth. This makes Alma’s claim more believable.

Re: iec’s clears:

Could you please explain every one of those?

It's not that those players are particularly scummy, but rather that everyone else is largely cleared:

1. Glork is town because he was probably a death miller (GDM).
2. Alma is probably not scum because his reaction to Faraday's gag rule is consistent with his claim. (The numbers post still bothers me, though, tbh. I really expected it to be explained when Alma claimed.)
3. Vaya is not scum for pointing out the situation with Alma in a circumstance where no one had picked up on GDM even after I'd mentioned it.
4. Given all that, UK has to be town, because there was no reason for her to stop the Vaya lynch D1 if she was scum.
5. Phate/tubby is town because of something that happened N1 and early D2. I will elaborate on this later.
6. I think SB is probably town because of her claim on Phate. She claimed it before I intimated any insight, so she cleared Phate, Cop/converter.

1 is fine. 2 is fine. 3 is ok – with the words death miller already floating around, and Vaya-scum knowing that he was a DM, I can see him pre-empting people with the revelation, but this certainly makes me think Vaya much more likely town. 4 – well yeah. Questioning a guilty on a townie would be pretty odd as scum. 5 I obviously can’t comment on. 6 I think is naïve. I don’t see any reason to believe that someone who has claimed cop is real just because they have an inno on someone you think is town. In a game like this, sanities are always going to be hugely in doubt, and there’s really no great risk attached to scum “clearing” someone.
I expected to disagree with more of those. I’d add iec and SB to the list, and remove myself, but this is basically goodposting. So I’m thinking the best place to look for scum is in:
SP
SSK
Pom
iec
SB

3. FTF's D1 miller claim looks weird in light of all the gag orders elsewhere. Also, he's been a pretty on-the-backburner player all game. The only post of his I can remember is the one justifying that he wasn't likely to be 3rd party on account of his checking guilty. O_o

In this game, we have 4 different types of miller claimed, including SSK. I think this actually adds credence to the first miller claim – if I were scum, I’d have to be lucky to land in the middle of millertown just when I decided to claim miller.
I don’t deny being fairly on-the-backburner, as you put it. I’ve struggled to work out what is going on, in terms of setup or who the scum are. However, the last sentence of this sits very badly with me. The post you refer to was a couple of lines extremely early in the game. I haven’t had a huge impact on this game to date, but reading myself in iso I’ve made some decent posts, given my reads, commented on everything important – including giving a case for you being scum, alone and with Vaya, which I would have thought is the kind of thing to stick in the mind. For you to remember only one post, which casts me in a bad light, is pretty unbelievable.
I’d really like your reasoning on phate as soon as you feel you can give it.

For my own reference, claims so far (no particular order):
1. Me, miller
2. Alma, miller
3. Glork, likely death miller (not actually claimed)
4. UK, sanity checker
5. Phate, cop/converter
6. SB, semi-identical cop/converter - inno on Phate
7. Faraday, cop
8. SSK, one shot cop who takes alignment of investigatee for investigation purposes
Unclaimed: iec, SP, Pom, Vaya
Am I missing anything?

Given this list, I’m tempted to call for massclaim just because almost everyone has claimed, but I can’t see it doing much good.

I think it’s pretty suspect that SB didn’t notice iec wasn’t on his own list.
So, looking at my likely scum pool:
SP I’ve got a townie read on.
SSK I don’t like at all. Rereading him in iso, it’s notable how he hardly gives any reasons why people are scum. I think when IIoA is this extreme, it’s definitely a scumtell. The main mitigating factor is his very early claim. His 99% breadcrumb I actually find relatively convincing – I can’t think of many roles with which he could have claimed to have had 99% certainty. Being the first to claim, in such a certain way, points to him being town.
Pom – Quite a lot of fluff. Her case on Almaster (iso 29) isn’t a good one – she argues that Almaster is scum for being hypocritical regarding scumhunting and IIoA. Well, hypocrisy isn’t a scumtell – and moreover, I think it’s odd to think of it as one. (Much) later, Pom says she “isn’t an energetic scumhunter” and “often procrastinates in regard to scumhunting”. I can readily believe these, but they sit quite badly with taking someone else to task over lack of scumhunting – if you are similarly afflicted, I would have though you’d understand when someone else isn’t scumhunting. I think Pom reads pretty scummy.
iec – I had problems with iec during day 1, but his recent posts feel very protown to me. I don’t want to lynch him today.
SB – no real read here. As above, her recent failure to notice iec wasn’t on his scumlist I find very suspicious.

So the lynches I’m most up for today are Pom, SB and SSK. I think that’s my order of preference atm.

vote: Pom

[Fishythefish]

Pomegranate, who are your top three suspects right now? Who do you think we should lynch today?

FTF- He hasn't done much, and claimed miller early. I smell scum. Also, his miller claim doesn't fit with Alma's and Glork's PM clauses (assuming GlokDM, which seems extremely likely right now)

In this game, we have three claimed millers (including GDM), and one role verging on miller (SSK). Do you really think that the minor variation of my role from those of the others points to me being scum?

Can you expand on "he hasn't done much" please? In particular, why does it make you think I'm scum?

@SSK: if you had got an "innocent" result, would you check guilty?

I need to think about whether or not I want iec to claim.

[Fishythefish]

@iec: it's worth considering that, if you really have caught scum, the chance that they'll let you catch another one isn't that good anyway. I'd suggest you claim your role if you think it will lead to the right lynch. With the information flying around in this game, your statement about Phate isn't strong enough for a lynch as it stands (even if everyone believes it - which I'm inclined to atm).

My town read on SP is gut. His posts feel very genuine.

[Fishythefish]

Sounds sensible.

[Fishythefish]

Phate's claim was town aligned WinBlows cop - which would count as closed source activity, no?

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: tubby

[Fishythefish]

I'm happy with a tubby lynch. With no info, the slot is probably on the scummy side of neutral. With this info, tubbyscum is likely.

[Fishythefish]

vote: Vaya

There was a strong iec-Vaya connection day 1, and I don't see anything to weaken it.

[Fishythefish]

"Go town" clearly is not in the spirit of a "Bah" post in this game.

It should be ignored.

iec/Vaya connection:
SP made good points in this post. UK's reaction is in the post below.
My reaction was a QFT, and on asking from VMD, this expansion, which is still my position.

[Fishythefish]

I seem to have been prodded.

Vaya is still scum. Still needs lynching.

In other news, the second line of SB's above post is rather horrible. If it's protown to reveal, why haven't you? If it's not, why would you? This just looks like appeasing the town.

[Fishythefish]

I can only apologise for my play in this game. For some reason, I never really got into it in a meaningful way - I don't think I'm suited to this kind of game (ie. huge amounts of information, all of which turns out be useless at best). TBH, I think the town would have had more chance in 8-3-1 mountainous - which is not a good place to be.

Well done SP.