Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[elvis_knits]

Hi!

[elvis_knits]

vote sensfan

Bandwagongogogogogogo

[elvis_knits]

scumteam = sensfan, boxman, macavitylock

confirm or deny?

Votes Count Uno

Sens Fan:

3 (Konowa, elvis_knits, Netopalis)

Parhelic:

2 (MacavityLock, Iecerint)

Netopalis:

1 (Boxman)

MacavityLock:

1 (StrangerCoug)

mathcam:

1 (Seol)

Seol:

1 (SensFan)

Not Voting:

(mathcam, Parhelic, Percy)

Deadline:

Friday November 27th, 12:00 PM EST

[elvis_knits]

I deny Elvis's accusation.

Am I close?

scumteam=sensfan, mathcam, macavitylock

Confirm or deny?

[elvis_knits]

The boxman wagon does not look random to me. It looks to be based on a weak scumtell. I don't know how others see boxman's post 31, but to me it's boxman posting without content, posting without trying to advance the game or scum hunt, and possibly the worst sin of all -- making my sensfan bandwagon look silly!

The only problem I have with sensfan voting boxman is that it makes the rival bandwagon as big as his own, which switched momentum to someone else.

[elvis_knits]

The only problem I have with sensfan voting boxman is that it makes the rival bandwagon as big as his own, which switched momentum to someone else.

First of all, I didn't know the count that well. I know I can't prove it, but the point is moot anyways, for the following reason: what else would you expect me to do? Not vote someone early in the game because I have more votes than them?

I would expect you to vote boxman if you were town thinking boxman is scum or if you were scum wanting a rival bandwagon to get bigger. I know it could go either way... and I'm not sure which.

However, don't try to tell me you didn't know what you were doing. There was a vote count at the top of the page. I assume you can count to three seeing as all the boxman votes were on the same page.

[elvis_knits]

Scumteam = elvis_knits, Netopalis, Boxman?

Why netopalis?

[elvis_knits]

He doesn't like the fact that I'm going against the common practice of pressure and reaction votes, nor the fact that I suggested setup discussion as a potentially better method of early scumhunting.

Well, I know why he doesn't like you, that's obvious. I actually meant to ask seol why he is connecting you to me. I can see him connecting you to boxman since you poo-pooed his boxman wagon. But why you and me are together, or why boxman and me are together, not sure why.

FTR, I agree that setup speculation is bad and that netopalis is sort of advocating information over analysis. Asking questions = good. But I favor using your vote whenever possible. And wagoning early and often.

[elvis_knits]

So are you going to explain your vote or are you just going to hide behind seol?

[elvis_knits]

He doesn't like the fact that I'm going against the common practice of pressure and reaction votes, nor the fact that I suggested setup discussion as a potentially better method of early scumhunting.

Well, I know why he doesn't like you, that's obvious. I actually meant to ask seol why he is connecting you to me. I can see him connecting you to boxman since you poo-pooed his boxman wagon. But why you and me are together, or why boxman and me are together, not sure why.

Your attack on Sensfan didn't ring true at all, and this in particular:

However, don't try to tell me you didn't know what you were doing. There was a vote count at the top of the page. I assume you can count to three seeing as all the boxman votes were on the same page.

felt unreasonably aggressive. Basically, it came across to me as an engineered argument; finding a reason to attack as opposed to genuine suspicion.

Why do you think it wasn't genuine?

I also wanted to see how you reacted to mimicking your scum-team suggestion postings. The unexpected response: you took it seriously.

My suggestions were serious. Yours weren't?

PPE: This:

So are you going to explain your vote or are you just going to hide behind seol?

also has that quality of feeling unreasonably aggressive; attacking for the sake of attacking, and notably different in tone to how you're talking to anyone else.

How do you measure "reasonable aggression?" Of course I'm going to be more aggressive to someone that I am voting and think might be scum.

[elvis_knits]

SC, why are you assuming my vote isn't serious?

You seemed to just go with the flow. You still had a neutral read afterward, but again, I'm not all for the bandwagon stage.

The boxman wagon does not look random to me. It looks to be based on a weak scumtell. I don't know how others see boxman's post 31, but to me it's boxman posting without content, posting without trying to advance the game or scum hunt, and possibly the worst sin of all -- making my sensfan bandwagon look silly!

I love how you call a scumtell weak and then make two points against him supporting the tell.

FoS: elvis_knits

I didn't mean weak in the sense that it doesn't matter. I think it's entirely appropriate to go after weak tells in the beginning of the game. I didn't mean it as a criticism, only as a means of measurement. The second sentence was to show you what exactly about the post I thought was a weak scum tell. Again, weak doesn't mean "bad" but rather just not strong.

[elvis_knits]

He doesn't like the fact that I'm going against the common practice of pressure and reaction votes, nor the fact that I suggested setup discussion as a potentially better method of early scumhunting.

Well, I know why he doesn't like you, that's obvious. I actually meant to ask seol why he is connecting you to me. I can see him connecting you to boxman since you poo-pooed his boxman wagon. But why you and me are together, or why boxman and me are together, not sure why.

Your attack on Sensfan didn't ring true at all, and this in particular:

However, don't try to tell me you didn't know what you were doing. There was a vote count at the top of the page. I assume you can count to three seeing as all the boxman votes were on the same page.

felt unreasonably aggressive. Basically, it came across to me as an engineered argument; finding a reason to attack as opposed to genuine suspicion.

Why do you think it wasn't genuine?

Because I don't think most people pay that much attention to the vote count at this stage in the game: you're coming across as if it was irresponsible of Sensfan not to know the precise votecount, and furthermore as if he had heightened responsibility for it because he was an alternative wagon. Particularly the use of the phrase "you had to know what you were doing" is highly accusative on something which isn't a reasonable expectation of a typical player at this point.

I always pay attention to the vote count. And I think that most players pay attention to the votes that happen on the same page as theirs, just because of proximity. Was I picking on something that might not be a big deal? Maybe. Was I pressuring sensfan to get his reaction? Absolutely.

I also wanted to see how you reacted to mimicking your scum-team suggestion postings. The unexpected response: you took it seriously.

My suggestions were serious. Yours weren't?

Well, that depends what you mean by serious. It was reasoned, but not intended to carry much weight.

Did you have reasoning behind yours? If so, please elaborate.

How much weight did you intend them to carry?

I don't know how much weight I meant. It was meant to get things going, but I was also serious. Not like a heartattack, but taking my best guess from what was available at the time.

My reasoning was this:

I saw:
netoplais votes sensfan.
boxman votes netopalis.(Sometimes a scum "random" votes the player who is voting their buddy. So I decide to vote sensfan see if I can tell anything more about the relationship there.)
I vote sensfan, call for a bandwagon.
MacavityLock ignores my bandwagon and puts a second vote on parh. (So he's obviously looking to put multiple votes on someone, looking to pressure, but not on sensfan).

So that is where I got sensfan, boxman, ML. I didn't think I was necessarily right, obviously it's highly speculative and the explanation could be very innocent, but I thought it was a possible relationship and worth pressuring to get more info. Atleast to get people talking and what not.

PPE: This:

So are you going to explain your vote or are you just going to hide behind seol?

also has that quality of feeling unreasonably aggressive; attacking for the sake of attacking, and notably different in tone to how you're talking to anyone else.

How do you measure "reasonable aggression?" Of course I'm going to be more aggressive to someone that I am voting and think might be scum.

I don't

measure

it, that was the impression I took. It seems odd to be so accusative the first time you asked Sensfan for his reasoning, he'd only been asked once up to that point by

anyone

, and your previous exchange had an entirely different subject - so it's not unreasonable for Sensfan to think that's what you were interested in. I also don't get where the "hide behind Seol" comment comes from.

Well when people were commenting on sensfan's vote, he chose not to explain it and to ask SC "why don't you think me vote was serious?" Which is a deflection. I didn't like that. Then you came in here and were having your discussion with netopalis and sensfan was falling by the wayside, so in that way, he was getting away with not explaining his vote. Even now when I asked him so obnoxiously he refused to give me his reasoning. I don't know why he's doing that. I don't understand the big deal.

[elvis_knits]

The boxman wagon does not look random to me. It looks to be based on a weak scumtell. I don't know how others see boxman's post 31, but to me it's boxman posting without content, posting without trying to advance the game or scum hunt, and possibly the worst sin of all -- making my sensfan bandwagon look silly!

I'm pretty happy with just "a weak scumtell" for a first-couple-of-pages bandwagon. And as someone else pointed out, you seem to give pretty good reasons to support the wagon anyway. I think I'm missing your point here -- who was arguing that it was entirely random? If Sens weren't around as a second option, would you be for or against the wagon?

I would vote boxman, but I didn't feel like I was done with sensfan so I didn't want to divide my efforts.

The only problem I have with sensfan voting boxman is that it makes the rival bandwagon as big as his own, which switched momentum to someone else.

I'm confused as to why you would have a problem with this. This seems like a pretty reasonable thing for Sens to do.

Only that scum would definitely want the rival bandwagon to gain momentum and town might not, depending if they thought boxman was scummy or not. It just seemed like senfan jumped on the chance to vote boxman.

Well, I know why he doesn't like you, that's obvious. I actually meant to ask seol why he is connecting you to me. I can see him connecting you to boxman since you poo-pooed his boxman wagon. But why you and me are together, or why boxman and me are together, not sure why.

Because you also poo-pooed the boxman wagon?

I didn't mean to. I actually think it has merit. I can understand how it might look like this though since I didn't join the boxman wagon, and since I think I was misunderstood when I said it was a "weak scum tell." Or maybe I used it wrong. I guess weak has too much of a bad connotation. But I just meant it as a relative measurement term and not that there were better scum tells out there at that point.

[elvis_knits]

I love how you call a scumtell weak and then make two points against him supporting the tell.

I thought this is at first, too -- Though I'd like to hear what elvis has to say about this, I think this is a misinterpretation. I think she's emphasizing that it's not a

random

wagon

because

there's a scumtell that's prompting it (even if that scumtell is pretty weak).

I correctly interpreted elvis_knits as not believing that the Boxman wagon was random. I'm attacking her for supporting the attack for a scumtell she says is weak, which made little sense to me.

See above. I didn't mean weak=bad.

I actually think refusing to partake in discussion is pretty strong as it's anti-information.

I agree it can be a good tell, but I see a lot of newer players do it as town. And boxman doesn't seem like a vet, so that makes it less sure for me. You could be completely right though.

What do you think about sensfan not explaining his boxman vote? I think that's anti-informational.

[elvis_knits]

On-topic, I find it somewhat wierd how quickly small wagons are moving about through the Town. I'm not sure what it means, but its odd.

There's been two wagons of three votes. What is odd about that?

[elvis_knits]

Generally, I ask for explanation out of curiosity and to keep the conversation going so I can better judge allignment. I have learned recently that just accepting things can be bad (/invitational 4 i let people get away with softclaims and accepted breadcrumbs too often). This is not the same thing, but I just think that asking for explanation is good. Do you disagree? Why?

Also, it's not so much that I mind things not being explained right away every moment. Sometimes people don't for whatever reason (time, wanting to see reactions, I do it too).

But I mind people not explaining when asked.

Seems like bad faith. So when I saw sensfan fail to explain his vote and instead ask a question of SC, I felt he was deflecting the question. And I asked you for explanation so that I could address any concerns you have.

So I only get a bug up my ass when requests are denied.

[elvis_knits]

This is not the same thing, but I just think that asking for explanation is good. Do you disagree? Why?

I think there's very little in the way of behaviour that is essentially good or bad: it's not what you do, it's how you do it. I didn't object to the questions you were asking Sensfan, I was objecting to

how

you asked them.

I can see how it came off obnoxious. I was poking for information.

Also, it's not so much that I mind things not being explained right away every moment. Sometimes people don't for whatever reason (time, wanting to see reactions, I do it too).

But I mind people not explaining when asked.

Seems like bad faith.

So you believe that everyone has a

responsibility

to explain their entire thought process on demand? I guess that's something we disagree on, then.

Unless it's something that is going to hurt the town, I expect people to explain. I mean, they don't have to, but I will be more suspicious of them if they don't. And I don't need a report of every minute thought they have, but just a general kind of thing. Like a sentence will usually do. I really don't think I'm as psycho about this as you think I am.

---

Now to look at current events...

[elvis_knits]

unvote; vote boxman

My current number two is Iecerint because of his behavior toward boxman/netopalis. He seems to vehemently support boxman wagon, yet never voted boxman, and instead votes/wagons netopalis for thinking the boxman wagon is too fast (or whatever netopalis is saying, too many votes too soon). Makes me question how genuinely he supports the boxman wagon. If he supports the boxman wagon, creating rival wagon is not really productive.

[elvis_knits]

I think you support boxman wagon because you're voting netoplais for wanting the wagon to slow. You also helpfully pointed out to people that boxman HAS been online, which is a point against him. Unless you meant it another way? If I misunderstand how you feel about boxman, please tell me your feelings on boxman.

As for your ISO5 post, it's here:

ML -- your italicized bit is my read of the elvis quote I was asking about. Here's said quote:

The boxman wagon does not look random to me. It looks to be based on a weak scumtell. I don't know how others see boxman's post 31, but to me it's boxman posting without content, posting without trying to advance the game or scum hunt, and possibly the worst sin of all -- making my sensfan bandwagon look silly!

At the time, I was assuming that elvis wouldn't criticize the boxman wagon unless she thought he was town. If she thought that both BM and SF were likely scum, her indignation above wouldn't make much sense. So I assumed she thought/was leaning that BM was town and SF was scum.

The last sentence of the quote indicates that there are three things BM has done that elvis believes are worthly of suspicion -- low content, low scumhunting, and trivializing her SF bandwagon. (How BM is responsible for trivializing said wagon is anyone's guess, but that's how the quote reads to me.) The last of these transgressions make little sense, because it's not clear why a town player would actively discredit a wagon on another player, but that's what elvis seems to be claiming.

It looked like SC had already called her out on this, but elvis's hypothetical scumtell made such little sense that I wanted to get clarification from her.

I think I've already answered all this in posts to others. I was confused why you asked these same things again after I had explained. Did you not read my posts?

I didn't mean weak in the sense that it doesn't matter. I think it's entirely appropriate to go after weak tells in the beginning of the game. I didn't mean it as a criticism, only as a means of measurement. The second sentence was to show you what exactly about the post I thought was a weak scum tell. Again, weak doesn't mean "bad" but rather just not strong.

I didn't mean to [poo-poo boxman wagon]. I actually think it has merit. I can understand how it might look like this though since I didn't join the boxman wagon, and since I think I was misunderstood when I said it was a "weak scum tell." Or maybe I used it wrong. I guess weak has too much of a bad connotation. But I just meant it as a relative measurement term and not that there were better scum tells out there at that point.

The only thing I can think of that isn't totally addressed is how I thought boxman trivialized my sensfan wagon. The way he did that is by saying there was nothing going on in the thread. So he's saying my sensfan wagon is inconsequential, not exciting, etc.

[elvis_knits]

There's a difference between me "supporting" the wagon and me "vehemently supporting" the wagon. The former I understand someone thinking, but the latter I do not. Elvis claimed the latter, which is relevant because there's no reason for a town player to overestimate another player's support for a wagon. I wanted to know why she did so.

I think you're splitting hairs with your reaction to my use of "vehement", but I guess this is "nouns" mafia.

IMO the neto wagon is a reaction to him wanting the boxman wagon to slow. So I would only expect you to wagon neto if you like the boxman wagon a lot and don't want to see it slowed.

EBWOP: Oh, follow-up on the elvis business. elvis, did you think that BM was intentionally trivializing your SF wagon, or just that that was a consequence of his post?

Possibly. It's an option. It would imply they are both scum. Much in the same way that boxman voting netopalis, after netopalis voted sensfan, was possibly boxman protecting sensfan.

(Also every time you write "BM" I think battlemage and it confuses me!)

[elvis_knits]

I think neto is being entirely consistent in the way he thinks we should be playing this game. He doesn't like random bandwagons and he seems to want to be super careful. On a personal level I disagree with him, but I don't know that he has any ulterior motive for what he's saying. If you think so, I think it's good to keep questioning/pressuring him. But it's not significant to me on it's own.

I mean, I don't plan on following neto's advice and keeping boxman at 2 votes until he is prodded. That seems like a pretty arbitrary plan that will only slow the game down. But I'm also not going to divide my effort and go after neto when his issues could totally be playstyle, not when I still think boxman is scummy and needs pressuring.

[elvis_knits]

Neto, please give some thoughts on other players... what you have seen as scummy or questionable so far in the game?

It will help me judge your allignment and see if this is just a playstyle thing of yours or not. I want to hear you talk about what you DO think is scummy instead of just preaching caution.

[elvis_knits]

I liked Neto's long analysis post. Probably partially because his suspicions are similar to my own. I was already thinking I didn't like how ML posted and unvoted without revoting. I find that counterproductive at this stage. (Haven't some other people done that too? Percy? Parh?)

I find some of sensfan's arguments bad. The OMGUS thing is wrong, since neto was voting him in the first game post after confirms. Sort of hard to argue that's OMGUS!

Also I don't like how sens compares himself to seol in post 151. I don't see them as that similar. And I don't like sens seeming angry that seol is not seen as scummy and he is. I don't know if I'm explaining it right. If people have questions I will take another try at it later.

Also, I love how Seol gets a free pass on your list, and I get burried, simply because you claim he backs his opinions up with reasoning, and I don't. That's laughable both because witholding reasoning isn't scummy, and I'm not doing it that much.

RE: Boxman...

I don't believe or disbelieve him at this point. I need to see him provide some analysis and content, and like make a real vote before I decide whether or not to unvote him.

Mathcam's point that a scum wouldn't forget about the game. I think he's probably right. But I don't know that boxman really did forget about the game. So I have to see more from him before I make a decision about him.

[elvis_knits]

ML, I thought that might be the reason but I didn't want to speak for you, or excuse it without seeing what you had to say. I'm fine with it now.

@sensfan... yes, serious. I mean, he's been voting you the entire game, so I don't think it's a reaction to you suspecting/voting him.

Whether or not it's odd for a random vote to turn into a serious vote... I don't know, I've been wondering what I think of that.

[elvis_knits]

Elvis, I think you're looking too much into the literal definition of OMGUS, rather than the 'spirit of the term', if you will. He placed a random vote on me for my avatar, and only when I pressured him did he start suspecting me.

You could be right. I have a hard time knowing who neto really suspected until his analysis post, so I don't really know when he started suspecting you. Do you think there is a definite turning point where he started suspecting you as a result of you suspecting him? I'd like to know where you thought his language changed or whatever you can point to.

I'm trying not to tunnel on you, but I realize I may be doing that. So I'm open to discussion.

[elvis_knits]

Then what is the value of such a vote, Iec?

Highly scummy reactions like yours.

You can also stop trying to get me to explain that Boxman vote. I will not be doing it in this game, period. We are well past the time when explaining it would help anything.

How could it hurt, sensfan?

[elvis_knits]

Elvis, I think you're looking too much into the literal definition of OMGUS, rather than the 'spirit of the term', if you will. He placed a random vote on me for my avatar, and only when I pressured him did he start suspecting me.

You could be right. I have a hard time knowing who neto really suspected until his analysis post, so I don't really know when he started suspecting you. Do you think there is a definite turning point where he started suspecting you as a result of you suspecting him? I'd like to know where you thought his language changed or whatever you can point to.

I'm trying not to tunnel on you, but I realize I may be doing that. So I'm open to discussion.

He doesn't really mention suspecting me at all until after my series of questions towards him, which turned into suspicions.

As for tunnelling on me, while I don't think you're at that point yet, it's worth noting that in the only game I remember playing with you (Twilight Mafia, which you replaced in to), I seem to recall you being all over me for the entirety of my time in that game, as well. There may be a playstyle clash going on here, or something.

YOU WERE SCUM IN THAT GAME!!!!

Actually, I resent you replacing out of that game when I correctly pegged you as scum. I guess it had nothing to do with me suspecting you but you leaving the game led to your replacement making a slip that I considered a towntell, which totally screwed me up.

I realize I may have a bit of bad blood about that, so I'm trying to temper that. I don't want to make a mistake in this game just because of my feelings there. So I am purposely trying to give you a fair shake at this point, and pursue others while I keep an eye on you. I would rather replace out of the game than let feelings from something else influence me, but I don't think it's that bad that I need to take myself out of the game.

Also, I remember a newbie game where you beat me when you were scum. You were actually super-nice to me, and pretty different that you were in twilight or this game. Have you become MUCH more confrontational as a player? Because you were pretty friendly to everyone in the newbie game but that was a long time ago. And as I said, I saw you be confrontational scum in twlight.

[elvis_knits]

SF was scummy in Twilight, but I'm not getting the same vibe now as I got from my readthrough back then. Then again, SF isn't advocating a policy lynch on zwet D1 this time.

I find his confrontational attitude similar. I was just looking back at the game and like I think asked him for a scum list and he flat out told me he would never do it and nobody else should either. Basically I should suck it. Which is similar to him being like "I won't ever tell you why I voted boxman. Period." Makes me want to stick my tongue out at him!

It's true he's not trying to policy lynch zwet or anyone else this game though. In twilight I think he was rather lazy and not scum hunting, angrily trying to beat us into policy lynching zwet (which became me!). It was his failure to scum hunt that really got me got me going that game. And... to be fair, I think he is scum hunting this game.

[elvis_knits]

I disagree sens.

Scum already know who isn't suspected. I find the information helpful both in building a consensus and getting discussion going. Asking people why they put a person in neutral or town or scum, and seeing how their mind works. I also think it makes it harder for scum when they have to explain their actions, and when they are held accountable.

I know some people genuinely think as you do, that scum lists are anti-town, so I don't find it necessarily scummy. But I disagree with you.

Vote Count Neuf

Netopalis:

4 (Konowa, SensFan, Iecerint, Boxman)

Boxman:

3 (elvis_knits, Seol, StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan:

2 (mathcam, Netopalis)

Not Voting:

(MacavityLock, Parhelic, Percy)

Deadline:

Friday November 27th, 12:00 PM EST

Prodding Parhelic

.

[elvis_knits]

IMO neto's reaction gets scummy mostly if boxman is scum.

If boxman is town, a scumNeto would probably not be trying to slow the wagon. I mean, maybe to earn town cred, or maybe because he thinks he would say that as town. But most of the time, if neto is scum and boxman is town, neto is not going to try to slow the boxman wagon. Right? I think so.

So, this fact, coupled with boxman appearing but not voting/being useful, makes me think boxman is the way to go at this point.

If boxman can come back here and scum hunt and surprise me, that would be great and I will reevaluate, but the current state is that boxman should go first. Then we see about Neto.

Sens I suspect disagrees. To him and others... what do you think the scum motivation would be to act like Neto if boxman is town?

[elvis_knits]

Okay, and I agree that setup speculation is not helpful and potentially scummy.

But do you think Neto is could be scum if boxman is town?

[elvis_knits]

elvis what do you make of Net reacting to an early third vote on Boxman, but not an early third vote on Sens?

I'd say it speaks to Neto being scum with boxman but not sensfan.

[elvis_knits]

I still think Neto's allignment is hugely tied to boxman's. Afterall, his reaction to the wagon is the main point against him.

But if boxman is town, I worry less about Netopalis.

I think boxman is scum since he came back to the game and didn't realy do anything or change his vote. (And if so, Neto very potential buddy).

But if Boxman is town, Neto was probably just some townie preaching caution.

I just think lynching neto first is backwards.

[elvis_knits]

What if I think Neto is scummy regardless of Boxman's alignment?

I'm open to hearing why. I asked why a scum Neto would slow a town boxman wagon. Tell me your thoughts.

[elvis_knits]

Well, reading last couple posts I don't like some of the stuff Neto is saying. Boxman wagon wasn't random. Sensfan isn't illogical, or necessarily tunnelling.

If Neto thinks those things are true, I need more explanation, becuase I don't think they are.

[elvis_knits]

I think Neto is wrong and possibly scummy with the recent accusations against sensfan. I think it's a little of a stretch to say his boxman vote was illogical because he didn't explain it. But I don't think he quoted out of context in 232 either. I think that the part he chopped really doesn't change much.

I think the argument is getting into minutae at this point. The biggest fact remains that Neto wanted to slow the wagon on boxman. That is the most important thing in my mind, and some of the rest could possibly be squabbling, so I don't want to get too riled up about it.

Boxman still hasn't done anything, reinforcing his scumminess. Neto hasn't mentioned this. (THAT is significant to me. He's not saying, "hey guys, maybe you were right about boxman, we're ten pages into the game and he still asn't done anything.")

I'm still voting boxman, and I will be until I see something good from him.

Iecerint is coming off to me as being sensfan jr. Konowa is also saying similar things but he seems original. Iecerint is like explaining what sensfan meant, and stuff like that. I find it sort of weird!

[elvis_knits]

Boxman has been posting in his other games. FYI.

I love that search isn't disabled anymore.

[elvis_knits]

We need more activity from:
Boxman, lurker scum
Parhelic, being replaced
Percy, food poisoning
Seol, busy bee
ML, VLA

[elvis_knits]

Boxman even said he added it to his watched topics, so I don't see what his excuse could be now.

[elvis_knits]

Well, a townie who always shows up as scummy isn't much help, are they? They just get in the way....

This is the awful post I speak of as it implies support for lynching village idiots. Do that and scum has an easy win.

I read that differently. I will reserve my interpretation of it until Neto clarifies, though, just in case.

Neto... what did you mean?

[elvis_knits]

I believe town should care more about lynching scum than keeping themselves alive. I'm always more willing to die as town.

BUT

I also think it is a townie's job to not make themselves an easy lynch. That decreases the chance of townies voting for you and increases the chances of scum outting themselves when making their reasons to vote you.

I don't think it's so horrible for a townie to want to save themselves and not look like scum. It should be their primary objective, but I think it's a part of playing this game.

Whether or not Neto is TOO worried about looking like scum... maybe. I don't know. I can still see this point (like a lot of the ones about Neto) as going either way. Boxman still needs to die first.

[elvis_knits]

Also:

I've never been scum on this site

How much have you played?

[elvis_knits]

It should

N'T

be their primary objective, but I think it's a part of playing this game.

This was supposed to say that.

[elvis_knits]

Percy posting gave me good vibrations. I recognize a similar mindset/philosophy there, which obviously makes me like him. He hit on some things that I had already thought, but other people didn't seem to understand.

Example: Iecerint with his tirade over my use of the word "vehement." (Watch him get upset about tirade next! I just like using my vocab words, okay?!) Me possibly misstating/misunderstanding the

degree

to which he supports the boxman wagon... should not be that big a deal. I explained why I thought that. There was no need to get his panties in such a bunch. Perhaps he was so bothered by it because I was also pointing out how he never voted boxman but skipped right to netopalis? Hmmm?

[elvis_knits]

Suppose that you were scum who knew that BM is town. By overestimating the degree to which other players were pushing for a BM lynch, you could be setting-up for a mislynch D2.

Until BM came back and disappeared again, BM wasn't that scummy. Neto was odd at best.

So you think that if BM is a mislynch that scum could set you up for a mislynch by making it seem like you supported the wagon that you never voted on???

What.

I think you may misunderstand the implications of my statements. If BM is scum, I think that you look very suspicious for supporting his wagon while you voted Neto. If BM is not scum, it doesn't mean much to me.

[elvis_knits]

That claim does not seem right...

I think I support a Neto lynch now. Also since he's either vanilla or scum. And I think the claim might be fake at this point.

Seol, what is BWCS?

[elvis_knits]

I'm always a fan of lynching scummy-looking vanilla claims. Even if you're wrong (meaning the person really is town) I think it helps in the long run.

I was really riding the fence for a while there on Neto, but I think the claim is fake. I don't know how to say

why

without potentially giving something away.

If anyone thinks the claim is good, I want them to say so. They don't have to say why. Actually, saying why may be bad.

unvote; vote netopalis

L-1

[elvis_knits]

I was really riding the fence for a while there on Neto, but I think the claim is fake. I don't know how to say

why

without potentially giving something away.

If anyone thinks the claim is good, I want them to say so. They don't have to say why. Actually, saying why may be bad.

This is why I was saying it's a bad idea to discuss claims, unless there's a really compelling reason. People always underestimate the collateral damage of getting this sort of conversation in the open.

I don't think that discussing our opinions of the claim,

even while withholding reasoning

, is a good idea. Discussing them whilst citing reasoning is worse.

Point taken. I will say no more on the subject.

[elvis_knits]

I'm disappointed you didn't hammer.

[elvis_knits]

All those who resisted boxman wagon and pushed Neto need sto die ASAP.

I am glad sensfan is gone because he would have been a prime suspect. That leaves us with Iecerint, who claimed support for boxman wagon, but never voted him and hid behind sensfan pushing netopalis all day.

vote: iecerint

[elvis_knits]

elvis_knits is on the suspicious side with #326 also.

Why?

And why didn't you hammer again?

[elvis_knits]

We're now split right down the middle with everyone voting. I'm happy with either lynch (and Net's claim is hard to wrap my head around), but Boxman or whoever's replacing him needs to get the heck in here and post something worthwhile.

Moreover, this post stinks to high heaven to me.

Me and others thought there was something wrong with the claim and so wanted Net dead ASAP, so we could hopefully lynch scum and also to limit the amount of role info that got discussed.

Why did you want to extend the day by waiting for the Boxman replacement?

[elvis_knits]

Okay, I did some fun color-coding of the end of day votecount, with the allignments we know colored, and my guesses at the other allignments.

Netopalis(town)

:

7

(mathcam (town)

, elvis_knits (town), Seol(town?), MacavityLock(?),

SensFan(town),

Iecerint(scum?),

Boxman(scum))

Boxman(scum

):

3 (StrangerCoug(scum?), Konowa(?),

Netopalis(town)

Iecerint(scum?):

1 (Percy(town?))

Not Voting:

(big_kahunia(?))

From this, I think that there is probably another scum on the Neto wagon. I tend to think it is one of the early pushers, and not one of the ones who went on late after the claim, since I see that as pro-town. So I lean more town on Seol, although he was absent for a while yesterday so I don't have a complete read on him. I am also just a bit suspicious of him since I know he is a good player, so I don't want to write him off completely, but I tentatively put him at town.

So, Iecerint seems like the most obvious scum from the NEt wagon since he pushed the wagon with sensfan all day and never voted boxman.

ML is also a possble scum though. Neto was the only person ML voted all day after his random vote. I played with ML recently in Second String Muppets Mini. We were scum there and he kept his vote on one person the whole first day before getting vigged at night. I'm thinking this might be a scumtell for him, picking one suspect and sticking with it.

StrangerCoug is less cut-and-dry. Looking at his ISO, he voted Boxman early and kept his vote there for a while. This is good. But when he switched his vote to NEtopalis, he gave the most horrible reason in the universe "Neto is trying too hard to look town." He is then pushed back to voting Boxman when Boxman never shows up. Can't tell anything from that, really. Reluctance to vote Netopalis at the end of yesterday has me thinking he just wanted to keep off the mislynch, but that's just my read. I am interested to hear his response to my previous posts.

Konowa spent a good deal of yesterday pressuring Netopalis, but as I said yesterday, he seemed to be having original thoughts, like he was thinking for himself, and was just, you know... wrong. This is sort of just a gut read of him.

Percy wasn't around too much yeserday, so I can't be suresure of my read until I see more from him. But what he did post was very in line with my thinking, and I agreed very much with his points, and the things he was picking up on about Iecerint. I feel strongly that he is town, and the low-level mumbling from strangercoug that Percy might be scum is of concern to me.

bigkahunia, need to see more from. I don't remember liking him very much, but I need more.

Interesting note: ML picked to lurkerrandomvote parhelic (bigkahunia replaced) instead of mathcam. This suggested a preference for parh/bigkahunia, and maybe a possible buddy in mathcam. Since mathcam is town, we can throw that one out, and I would suspect that if one of them is scum, the other is not their buddy. Not a sure thing, but something that is probably true, barring anything serious developing.

Simply:
Scum:
Iecerint
StrangerCoug

Neutral:
MacavityLock(lean scum)
bigkahunia
Konowa(lean town)


Town:
elvis
Seol
Percy

[elvis_knits]

ML, okay, I'm glad you linked to those games. Voting Net all day still stands as a point against you since he was town, but the meta thing now doesn't matter to me. Also, you get pro points for noticing SC's scumminess, which I agree with.

---

I was rereading konowa and I am not as sure of my town-gut read on him.

Alright...I can see the point about going with minimal tells on day one. That being said, I really think we need to hear from Boxman a bit more before continuing - he's at 3 votes and we're not even past page 4.

This really feels like you are trying to show support for the Boxman wagon without having to place a vote on him. Why are you so concerned Boxman has three votes at this point?

unvote;

vote Netopalis

Boxman needs to start talking. As does Parhelic.

I think this is sort of hypocritical because I think he is showing a weak support for the boxman wagon while voting netopalis (for showing support for the boxman wagon without voting him).

Something seems very wrong about that.

And stuff like this:

Netopalis, you have been trying to slow down the Boxman wagon since it took off.

My original contention was that people cannot attack Net for wanting to slow the boxman wagon unless they know boxman is scum. If boxman were town, it would all be null. So people that attacked Net based on his treatment on boxman, are highly suspicious to me.

I think that Konowa's suspicions of Net are very dependent on boxman, and so wanting net dead first is very backwards.

Now I would say that my top scummy suspects are:

Iecerint
StrangerCoug
Konowa

[elvis_knits]

ML, what do you think of Iecerint?

[elvis_knits]

All I can refer you to is the views I expressed D1 about the possibility that Neto could be scum without BM, which I maintain were justified.

I disagree. The whole premise was backwards and screwed up. The central problem with Net was wanting to slow the boxman wagon. If boxman was town and neto was scum, he wouldn't have wanted to do that. I could see them as scum together or I could see boxscum and netotown. boxtown and netscum was not possible.

Admit you were wrong and then we'll talk.

[elvis_knits]

I fail to see how that was such a big deal. IMO, most of the points against Neto were things that people blew out of proportion and presented as cardinal sins. The setup speculation thing is a classic example.

He didn't come into this game and say "mass roleclaim nao!"

Look at page 3, he says he's not such a fan of early wagons, seol asks him what he'd rather do and he says:

Generally, I find that posing questions and discussions like this about theme and method are more effective...[than random bandwagons]

Seol questions further, asking if it's a good idea to setup speculate:

Not always. That being said, I could definitely see it being a problem in this specific one....

He doesn't like the fact that I'm going against the common practice of pressure and reaction votes, nor the fact that I suggested setup discussion as a potentially better method of early scumhunting.

Fair enough, I retract the statement. I only intended it as a general replacement anyway.

Basically he said he doesn't like early bandwagons and gave example of setup speculation as an alternative. He didn't try to actually do it, or ask anyone to roleclaim. He even admits it might be bad in this particular game and then retracts his statement, saying he just meant it as a general example of something we could do besides bandwagon.

He was not really advocating we setup speculate. Seol questioned him about it and he was forced to keep talking about it. Then you and sensfan hammered on about it for ages and blew it into this huge deal when never needed to be.

Do I think he was wrong to suggest it? Yes. Do I disagree with his gameplay philosophy? Yes.

But it was not the huge deal you are making it out to be.

[elvis_knits]

Iecerint --

Tell me what arguments about SC you agree with.

I need this in your own words.

And who else do you think is scummy?

Vote Count Un

StrangerCoug:

2 (Iecerint, MacavityLock)

MacavityLock:

1 (Seol)

Iecerint:

1 (elvis_knits)

Not Voting:

(big_kahunia, Konowa, Percy, StrangerCoug)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[elvis_knits]

I do not believe that I ever said that I wanted Net dead first. I thought they were both scummy, but with Boxman not posting at all I decided to pressure Net. However, with Boxman's eventual non-reappearance I switched my vote to Boxman because as you said my suspicions of Net were dependent on Boxman being scum.

No, you just attacked and voted Netopalis all day and then only when I pointed out that boxman still wasn't posting, did you switch your vote.

You never gave the caveat "I'm only voting neto because boxman isn't around to talk to." That is BS. You hardly attack boxman at all or talk about him unless you are attacking netopalis for slowing the wagon on boxman.

I think you just gave a totally innacurate summary of your play yesterday.

unvote; vote konowa

[elvis_knits]

But sens and icerint were trying to tell me that neto was scum no matter boxman's allignment. I was saying neto could not be scum if boxman was not. If you agreed with me, why didn't you say so? Why weren't you voting boxman earlier? You were voting with sens and iecerint, but you disagreed with them?

[elvis_knits]

oh ho! StrangerCoug is a funny man!

I was buddying boxman, you say?

That is a good one. Maximum lulz!

Also, "TRYING TOO HARD TO LOOK TOWN" definitely is the most horrible reason in the universe. I have no idea how you can tell the difference between someone who looks town and someone

trying

to look town. It's basically the "too townie" fallacy.

[elvis_knits]

Now I trust Lynch All Lurkers a little more seeing that Hoopla, who replaced my biggest suspect, got bombed.

I have to go to work now, so I'll make my big post in a minute, but something doesn't look right about Percy. elvis_knits is on the suspicious side with #326 also.

I am looking forward to this big post about percy, and hopefully more attacks on me!

I need more humor in my life.

[elvis_knits]

How was Neto unnatural, in that case?

[elvis_knits]

I think those voting Neto need to provide me with reasons as to why Boxman shouldn't go first.

We'll start on my Percy case by asking him to prove that the order in which Netopalis and Boxman die mattered.

That doesn't sound like you really have a lot to say on Percy if all you can come up with is one question. I wonder why you advertised some "big post." I feel cheated.

How was Neto unnatural, in that case?

It took me awhile to read #245 as something other than "HELP! If I do this, town will go after me, and if I do that, town will go after me!", most especially.

#247 didn't look right either. Neto said the record straight for me by denying that it was advocating policy lynching village idiots and saying that it was instead referring to himself, which adds to #245's problem.

Everything Neto said was being blown out of proportion and he literally was getting attacked no matter what he said. Haven't you ever had that experience as town? I know I have.

Also, he never got all panicky and said stuff like "HELP!" You're overstating that. He actually stayed pretty calm throughout, IMO.

[elvis_knits]

Net's claim didn't make you rethink?

[elvis_knits]

Iecerint, I think that is correct how a bomb works. Was that your original understanding when you first posted or did you wiki it?

[elvis_knits]

My current theory is that SC is scum with Konowa, with big kahunia being a third party. Big K didn't seem to care which of boxman/net we lynched. He didn't really talk about anyone besides boxman/net yesterday, which leads me to believe he was not actually trying to scum hunt. He jumped on the biggest issue, pushed it forward without taking a big stance who was worse, and just sat there. Scum-o. If he were town, I would have expected at least a preference on which of boxman/net should die first, even if he thinks they're both scummy. So, that was a scummy was to replace into the game, but shows no preference between two wagons, one mafia, one town. Only an SK, who doesn't know if either is mafia, would show no allegiance.

Konowa could possibly be exchanged for iecerint or ML, but I favor konowa for the way he came in today saying "I don't believe I ever said I wanted Net dead first..." Dur. He was attacking and voting Net almost all day. I NEVER got the feeling that he favored boxman over Net. I feel he only voted boxman right before the end because boxman still wasn't posting and it looked like boxman was going to be the lynch. Boxman looked inevitable at that point, and that is the time you HAVE to buss your buddy. Also the time SC and Konowa came over to the boxman wagon with little explanation for their votes. It's ironic that Net claimed and then got lynched, and they ended the day with their votes on Boxman. They were probably feeling really awesome about that ending.

If anyone disagrees with me about konowa, I would like to hear it. If I am wrong, and you got the feeling Konowa was a big supporter of the boxwagon and only was voting/attacking Net because boxman wasn't here... please let me know. I would like to know if I am misreading.

[elvis_knits]

Intersting points on BK. I didn't remember that about parh. I have to think about that.

I also think you're right about SC being the foolproof choice.

---

I was confused about your NK interpretations because the way you originally said it sounds like you think SF and a vig targetted boxman/hoopla.

And saying mathcam was NK'd makes it sound like you think mathcam was the mafia kill.

So Boxman was both vigged and bomb'd, and mathcam was NK'd?

I think the flavor suggests mafia targetted SF, who exploded, killing himself and boxman/hoopla. Boxman/hoopla seems also targetted by another killing role, and mathcam was targetted by ANOTHER. That's three killing roles. I think you're right one is mafia, one is vig, and one is third party. We know what the mafia kill was from flavor. Why do you think boxman was vigged and mathcam was SK'd though?

I'm trying to figure out why you thought what you thought and if it means anything about your allignment.

Vote Count Deux

Iecerint:

2 (Percy, Konowa)

StrangerCoug:

2 (Iecerint, MacavityLock)

elvis_knits:

1 (StrangerCoug)

Konowa:

1 (elvis_knits)

MacavityLock:

1 (Seol)

Not Voting:

(big_kahunia)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[elvis_knits]

Okay, that sounds plausable. I don't think there's anything scummy about what you said.

[elvis_knits]

That stuff about Konowa does nothing for me, personally. Maybe others will agree with you... I don't know.

But I tend to see scum mildly attack their buddy for distance while not really bussing hardcore. The way Konowa mostly attacked Net makes me think he was not serious about BM. And I don't buy his explanation today that he "never said Net should go first."

In any case, I do agree that SC is scummier at the moment.

[elvis_knits]

elvis -- It's worth noting that at least one player (mathcam) had already come out and interpreted BM's comeback post as meaning "BM=Town." I think the issue looked like it was going to go away up until Konowa posted that. (Granted, it STILL pretty much almost went away, except that BM couldn't stop lurking.)

That's a pretty good point.

Although, I definitely said I was going to keep voting boxman until he actually did something, that his reappearance with no actual voting was not enough for me to unvote him.

So Konowa didn't really originate the boxman hate.

You are right though that given mathcam's reaction, scum did not necessarily have to keep beating on boxman at that point.

I dunno, still think Konowa was all over Net all day, and was not really trying to lynch boxman.

I agree that your point should be considered though.

[elvis_knits]

Big Kahunia -- who do you think is scum? Who are your top suspects at this time?

[elvis_knits]

My current theory is that SC is scum with Konowa, with big kahunia being a third party. Big K didn't seem to care which of boxman/net we lynched. He didn't really talk about anyone besides boxman/net yesterday, which leads me to believe he was not actually trying to scum hunt. He jumped on the biggest issue, pushed it forward without taking a big stance who was worse, and just sat there. Scum-o. If he were town, I would have expected at least a preference on which of boxman/net should die first, even if he thinks they're both scummy. So, that was a scummy was to replace into the game, but shows no preference between two wagons, one mafia, one town. Only an SK, who doesn't know if either is mafia, would show no allegiance.

I'm scratching my head here. It probably makes some sort of sense, but the wording in the last sentence is awfully strong.

I will explain the SK thing in case it is unclear. SK's obviously don't have a link to mafia players. They can't be sure which players are mafia -- they want to get rid of mafia, hopefully by NK, while staying non-threatening during the day. So an SK is not necessarily going to try to save boxman. But they also don't really care who dies as long as it's not them. It's this sort of ambivalence, combined with lack of scum hunting that I see in BigK, that I think suggests he might be the SK.

Other than that, I don't understand your problem with my post or why you don't like it. Do you not understand what I mean? Do you disagree? You just take issue with my wording being too strong?

I don't understand your problem with it.

Nor do I understand why you voted me and continue to do so. Can you clarify why you are voting me? Because I don't really understand your reasoning in 356.

We're now split right down the middle with everyone voting. I'm happy with either lynch (and Net's claim is hard to wrap my head around), but Boxman or whoever's replacing him needs to get the heck in here and post something worthwhile.

Moreover, this post stinks to high heaven to me.

Me and others thought there was something wrong with the claim and so wanted Net dead ASAP, so we could hopefully lynch scum and also to limit the amount of role info that got discussed.

Why did you want to extend the day by waiting for the Boxman replacement?

You are out of your mind. To answer your question, the more fake information scum gives us that we catch as such, the more rope we can tie them up with. On the other hand, if we don't allow town to post useful information, it's us that's hurt. Boxman didn't give us a whole lot; he was scum. You're not advocating much in terms of information; as what alignment do you think I like you? (Hint:

Vote elvis_knits

)

Is this english? What does it mean? Specifically, "You're not advocating much in terms of information." I don't know what you're accusing me of.

[elvis_knits]

Bombs kill the NKer, right? So BM NK'd SF and was himself killed. There are two sets of flavor on BM's death, which is why I think he was also vigged; the crater was probably the bomb flavor. I figured MC made more sense as an extra NK kill than an extra vig, but I was just guessing. Let me know if there is an obvious alternate interpretation of events, because, if so, it's probably clear to everyone else.

Convince me that you can reasonably balance a two- or three-person Mafia group, an SK which I'm led to believe is more specifically an arsonist, a vigilante, and a bomb with six or seven other town players.

Nobody needs to convince you, SC. You should be able to look at the flavor and see the truth of this that there was a mafia kill last night which resulted in a bomb kill, plus two other kills.

We know there is a mafia. We know there WAS a bomb. And we have evidence of two other kills.

End of story.

[elvis_knits]

unvote konowa; vote StrangerCoug

[elvis_knits]

I miss Seol.

[elvis_knits]

But that's just it -- if Neto was scummy just for BM-directed favoritism, then his behavior is only scummy if BM is scum, right? As such, BM would've been the obvious lynch. Did you not see it that way, or did you think Neto was also scummy for his own reasons, or what?

Regarding balancing, if that's all there is to it, I fail to see the balance problem SC's alluding to. SF can be hammered by town just fine; the bomb role helps town, but not to a degree that balancing is unimaginable. SC's question is just rolefishing as far as I can tell. I'm happy with voting him.

I'm rolefishing for hypothetical setup information. How cute.

That said, I am not reasonably going to get a cop, doc, or any other crucial town role to say anything along the lines of "here I am" with my balancing question regardless of said power role's intelligence. I just think Mafia, bomb, vig, and SK is too heavy on ways to die in a 12-player—the Mafia could have lost on Night 1 out of sheer bad luck. Yes, luck plays some factor or other in a Mafia game, but it shouldn't be

THAT

strong in my opinion.

So what was your point asking about balance? Do you have a different interpretation of night actions?

I will explain the SK thing in case it is unclear. SK's obviously don't have a link to mafia players. They can't be sure which players are mafia -- they want to get rid of mafia, hopefully by NK, while staying non-threatening during the day. So an SK is not necessarily going to try to save boxman. But they also don't really care who dies as long as it's not them. It's this sort of ambivalence, combined with lack of scum hunting that I see in BigK, that I think suggests he might be the SK.

Other than that, I don't understand your problem with my post or why you don't like it. Do you not understand what I mean? Do you disagree? You just take issue with my wording being too strong?

I don't understand your problem with it.

It's also possible for BK to have thought that both were scum, but he liked a Box lynch better than a Net lynch.

I guess so, but that's not what he has said. And why are you making excuses for him? What do you think of BK, in terms of allignment? I fail to see why you would be sticking up for BK when he is doing nothing for this game. He won't even tell me who he thinks is scummy. Not one name, not one point.

Nor do I understand why you voted me and continue to do so. Can you clarify why you are voting me? Because I don't really understand your reasoning in 356.

We're now split right down the middle with everyone voting. I'm happy with either lynch (and Net's claim is hard to wrap my head around), but Boxman or whoever's replacing him needs to get the heck in here and post something worthwhile.

Moreover, this post stinks to high heaven to me.

Me and others thought there was something wrong with the claim and so wanted Net dead ASAP, so we could hopefully lynch scum and also to limit the amount of role info that got discussed.

Why did you want to extend the day by waiting for the Boxman replacement?

You are out of your mind. To answer your question, the more fake information scum gives us that we catch as such, the more rope we can tie them up with. On the other hand, if we don't allow town to post useful information, it's us that's hurt. Boxman didn't give us a whole lot; he was scum. You're not advocating much in terms of information; as what alignment do you think I like you? (Hint:

Vote elvis_knits

)

Is this english? What does it mean? Specifically, "You're not advocating much in terms of information." I don't know what you're accusing me of.

Your attack on me is anti-information. I don't like people just going "I've had enough, now die." Let people go into their spiels on how they're innocent, why they can't have done what they've been accused of, etc. Nobody has to believe a word that player says, but when the player is finally hammered, we have a whole bunch of his or her thought processes and/or why he or she should have been lynched. I don't see town motives in cutting people short.

The whole point of lynching Net ASAP, was not because I "had enough" and just wanted him dead. That is a misrep of my why I, along with others who I think are town (mathcam we know is town, sensfan we know is town, seol I think is town), all decided Net should die pretty quickly. I wanted Net dead becasue 1)He claimed vanilla; and 2)I didn't want people discussing role PM's and giving hints to scum.

So you are accusing me of being anti-informational, when the information I was trying to protect was information that would be directly harmful to town if scum got a hold of it. This was clearly stated at the time.

I can see no town motivation for prolonging discussion at that time when everything that people could have said would help scum.

[elvis_knits]

Okay, so who else is SC's buddy?

I'm thinking he is mafia for ties to BM, and I am thinking there is another member of his team. 3 person mafia team is normal.

First I was thinking Iecerint, but I'm not so hot on that right now. He's probably been the most helpful and involved today among the people left. And I haven't noticed anything very scummy about him. With that much participation, I think I would have seen something.

Then I was thinking Konowa. Iecerint and Seol don't seem to agree with me on that one. That leaves MacavityLock. I'm not sure I'm hot for him. One thing is he's voting SC. And I do not think SC's buddy would have come in today voting him. When you see a member of your scum team dead, you automatically band together. Bussing your remaining buddy is not something I would expect at that point. And I think Percy is town. BigKahunia I have down as SK. I dunno, but I am still seeing Konowa as the best suspect for SC and Boxman buddy. Especially since he stopped posting after I suspected him and hasn't been back since.

[elvis_knits]

Okay, so who else is SC's buddy?

I'm thinking he is mafia for ties to BM, and I am thinking there is another member of his team. 3 person mafia team is normal.

There's been a lot of back-and-forth between you and SC, on a range of topics. For my benefit, could you please clarify the ties between SC and Boxman?

The ties, as I see it are:

His early boxman vote was not really serious or intended to lynch. Increases the liklihood that a scum would vote their buddy if they thought they weren't going to have to lynch said buddy

It's kind of hard to call my vote on Boxman a second random vote, though I was aware of the unlikelihood that he'd be lynched on that alone.

I thought it had been established that Boxman's not very likely to be lynched on just opting to sit out, as much as I like the tell.

Also, the way SC got off the boxman wagon yesterday is very scummy, IMO. His reasoning for voting Neto is bad.

Unvote: Boxman and demote him to a Major HoS
Vote: Netopalis

The end of page 10 looks a lot like he's trying too hard to look town. #247 is awful.

So first we have the part where he unvotes scum and votes town, followed by the part ML doesn't like, where he gives a "major" HoS to Boxman. MAJOR! I find Foses basically useless and I don't bother to use them like 99% of the time. Maybe SC likes them. Some people do. But drawing a distinction between FoS, HoS and Major Hos... that seems forced, like he's trying to prove he REALLY is suspicious of Boxman while he votes someone else. I see it as weaselly garbage.

Then the part which I consider the scummiest reason in the universe to vote someone, "trying too hard to look townie."

[elvis_knits]

Seol, do you still think ML is scum? Any further comment on him?

[elvis_knits]

For the record, my position on elvis at the moment is:

I don't like how aggressive she's playing, I feel she's tunnelling badly and her reasoning isn't as strong as it could be. I feel she's overplaying the importance of people's positions on the Box wagon, am concerned that there's a possibility she's trying to establish that as a primary metric on the basis that it puts her in the clear, and thinking back to yesterday she seems almost

too

strongly on Box, moreso than I would expect an uninformed player to be.

I was wondering for a bit if elvis_knits was trying to stretch for a case on me. I don't like Iecerint's misrepresenting me either, and his defending against Percy doesn't work well. Those are my top two scum picks for now. (Mind you, something about Percy is still nagging me, but I can't figure out what anymore.)

I'll

vote elvis_knits

again. Iecerint,

IGMEOY

.

So, what is your reason for voting me? I don't see one here.

[elvis_knits]

I'm glad BigK replaced out if he didn't have the time to spend on this game, because Spyrex is already looking much more town.

Spy, what do you think of SC?

[elvis_knits]

I don't like how aggressive she's playing, I feel she's tunnelling badly and her reasoning isn't as strong as it could be.

I am not tunneling. It should be perfectly apparent that I am pressuring for information and evaluating responses carefully. I have not been on SC all day. I went after Iecerint first, and have actually changed my mind very much on him. I am stating my opinions forcefully, but I am always open to responses from my suspected player and even from the rest of you. I have asked if I was way off base on some of my points -- in my effort to be fair. I am being perfectly reasonable.

I feel she's overplaying the importance of people's positions on the Box wagon, am concerned that there's a possibility she's trying to establish that as a primary metric on the basis that it puts her in the clear, and thinking back to yesterday she seems almost

too

strongly on Box, moreso than I would expect an uninformed player to be.

How am I overplaying? I am not seeing things as black and white, like saying "X is scum for being on neto! DIE NOW!" I am looking it on individual basis on when they got onto what wagon and for what reason.

I am also surprised that you are downplaying ties to boxman, when looking for ties to known scum is a huge deal! This is a huge tool for us to use, and you are criticising me for trying to use it?

[elvis_knits]

I tend to think that Spyrex not knowing he had a double vote means that someone gave him a double vote (unless he's lying about not knowing).

[elvis_knits]

SC: It's not a case on elvis, it's an unresearched compilation of gut feelings. I'd put it not much higher than "healthy suspicion".

@SC... Piggybacking onto Seol's case was lazy BS. As you can see, Seol himself doesn't even consider it a case. So please explain to me why you are voting me.

I don't like how aggressive she's playing, I feel she's tunnelling badly and her reasoning isn't as strong as it could be.

I am not tunneling. It should be perfectly apparent that I am pressuring for information and evaluating responses carefully. I have not been on SC all day. I went after Iecerint first, and have actually changed my mind very much on him. I am stating my opinions forcefully, but I am always open to responses from my suspected player and even from the rest of you. I have asked if I was way off base on some of my points -- in my effort to be fair. I am being perfectly reasonable.

Maybe tunnelling wasn't the best word for it - I mean I think you're focussing too much on too trivial a set of details.

As for pressuring - well, maybe I'm just not used to you yet, it still feels like you're coming on very strong as your default mode, which might well be a big part of why I'm not comfortable with you.

Why does it bother you that I am aggressive?

I am also surprised that you are downplaying ties to boxman, when looking for ties to known scum is a huge deal! This is a huge tool for us to use, and you are criticising me for trying to use it?

I'm not criticising you for trying to use it, just in

how

you're applying it. If there are compelling ties to Boxman, of

course

that's a big deal. It appears we disagree substantially on what constitutes a compelling tie to Boxman.

You may think I'm being too agressive, but I think you're being too wimpy.

You are splitting hairs to find a reason not to pay too much attention to player's ties to dead scum. Having a dead scum is a huge advantage to us. Even if you think the ties are not that great, I still think it's a huge clue to us. I'm not advocating we go off and kill all the early netopalis pushers and don't look at anything else. I'm just saying we should not forget about boxman, and we should use player's interaction with him, to question and evaluate. It should be part of our cases, but not all.

So long as we're taking sides, I dispute that the case on SC is weak and I especially dispute the notion that EK is tunneling.

SC is also getting my back up. I'm not sure how I feel about him in general, I just feel the ties to Boxman aspect of the case is weak. I need to review the rest of SC.

When are you going to review SC?

[elvis_knits]

I noticed something very odd in Seol moving his vote to BigK/spyrex.

Seol posts from Saturday before voting BigK: 406, 408, 415, 422, 423 (no mention of BigK anywhere)

In the middle of that, BigK asks for replacement and gets replaced:

big_kahunia has requested replacement. His wish, will be granted.

SpyreX replaces big_kahunia. Ya welcome.

Then we get this post:

big_kahunia: Oh dear. I didn't like him before, and I really don't like him now.

Check that. Hoopla was mafia, not Sensfan. My bad. I skimmed Drake’s post.

This really rings false for me. Particularly the 4-minute gap between the posts: it feels engineered, intentional. This is particularly true given that much of the discussion to that point was centred on Box being scum and the consequences thereon.

Of course, if it

was

intentional, that puts BK as scum feigning ignorance of the NK situation. I'm still interested in the Macavity situation, but that's enough for an

unvote, vote: big_kahunia

- especially on top of bk's noncommittal play.

I'm also very annoyed that the replacer replaced out himself - that's really not a good show - but that's a separate issue.

I find it VERY odd that Seol wouldn't say anything against BigK until BigK got replaced, and then vote BigK before the replacement even has a chance to post.

The way I felt about the situation was that BigK looked like scum, but that if we were getting a replacement who is willing to participate, that gives us a much better chance of being more sure of his allignment. So I would have never moved my vote to BigK before hearing from the replacement.

The fact that spyrex replaced in and looks lots more town, makes Seol look even worse here.

Spyrex is a good town player. Not saying he's bad at scum, but I think we have a decent shot of telling if he is. No reason to off him prematurely.

Also, this reasoning from Seol is crapola. The whole thing about BigK saying he thought sens was scum, then reread and realized sens was town. The way I see it is this: it could either mean he has no idea who is/was mafia because he isn't mafia (meaning he's town or SK), or it could mean he was faking. No real reason for me to assume either way, so I'm just going to ignore it and put my time into things that are not as WIFOM.

Yet Seol has chosen to assume that BigK was faking.

He's all preachy to me about being too aggressive and that my ties to boxman points are not good enough, but he has chosen to believe one side of a WIFOM cointoss for basically no reason. And he's bringing this stuff up when BigK cannot comment on his point because he's out of the game! And he's not even giving spyrex a chance to post at all and possibly give him a better read! This seems super weasely to me.

[elvis_knits]

I may have played with Seol in the past, but I can't remember so it was not recently if I did. I don't think he should be used to me. Nor do I think I am that out of the norm in terms of playstyle.

I don't mind him commenting that I am aggresive. I do mind that he seems to mean it as a criticism. All along he has been "spinning" things. Saying he doesn't mind that I did "X," but

how

I did it. My POV is that it should not matter how I did it, if he agrees with what I did. Otherwise, it's really just an attack on my playstyle, used to subtly discredit me on the whole. So he's not attacking my points, but my manner. Which I think is scummy.

[elvis_knits]

Seol, I will respond to more later.

For now I just want to know:

Are you the SK?

[elvis_knits]

Seol, I will respond to more later.

For now I just want to know:

Are you the SK?

No. Are you?

Nope.

And I am now finishing a response to your 422 since you referenced it.

[elvis_knits]

Sorry for the lack of posting. Wife had to be rushed to the hospital early Thursday morning to have her appendix removed. Long story short, just got in this morning and will catch up today. I will try and get a post with my thoughts out before I head out today.

Sorry Konowa! I hope she feels better soon.

[elvis_knits]

The ties, as I see it are:

His early boxman vote was not really serious or intended to lynch. Increases the liklihood that a scum would vote their buddy if they thought they weren't going to have to lynch said buddy

It's kind of hard to call my vote on Boxman a second random vote, though I was aware of the unlikelihood that he'd be lynched on that alone.

I thought it had been established that Boxman's not very likely to be lynched on just opting to sit out, as much as I like the tell.

On the one hand, I think any page 2 vote that was intended to lynch is highly anomalous. Reading too much into that in hindsight is dangerous. On the other hand, I can see an odd pattern to SC's speech about it, as if he's carefully constructing his sentences to say one thing but imply something else, to sit on the fence as long as possible. I also noticed that earlier, and it's got me slightly uncomfortable about him.

I do not care for page count arguments. People should stand by their votes whenever they make them. I often see odd scum interactions early in the game, so I do not discount early game at all. I do not agree with people who think there's nothing to be learned from the so-called random voting period, or early game.

Also SC's vote may have been on page 2, but those comments about the vote were made later. It shows a continued effort to sit the fence, to vote boxman, while also advocating not lynching boxman because of his lurking.

Also, the way SC got off the boxman wagon yesterday is very scummy, IMO. His reasoning for voting Neto is bad.

Unvote: Boxman and demote him to a Major HoS
Vote: Netopalis

The end of page 10 looks a lot like he's trying too hard to look town. #247 is awful.

So first we have the part where he unvotes scum and votes town,

Yeah, quite a few of us did that. I did. You did. mathcam and Sensfan, both known town, did. Unlike us though, Stranger was back on the scum by the end of the day (before Neto's claim, which is what crystallised the wagon into a lynch), and didn't hammer - which could be described as trying to keep a clean record, but is just as likely to be that he preferred to vote Box, as he said.

This is very sneaky, Seol! You are not taking into account the circumstances in which SC changed his vote and the circumstances when me, you, mathcam switched our votes.

Me, you, mathcam changed our votes after neto had claimed vanilla. Claimed vanilla made him a good lynch (as he's either vanilla or scum), and we were trying to stop any role info being discussed. Those are pro-town reasons for switching to Neto.

SC, however, changed his vote from Boxman to Neto on shaky reasoning -- Neto was trying too hard to look town.

Circumstances totally different. Don't compare the two.

followed by the part ML doesn't like, where he gives a "major" HoS to Boxman. MAJOR! I find Foses basically useless and I don't bother to use them like 99% of the time. Maybe SC likes them. Some people do. But drawing a distinction between FoS, HoS and Major Hos... that seems forced, like he's trying to prove he REALLY is suspicious of Boxman while he votes someone else. I see it as weaselly garbage.

Whilst SC has said a few things which feel... forced, engineered, that's not one that stands out to me. I can see where you're coming from, but it feels like you're taking a God's eye view of the situation.

I have said from the beginning that this could be just the way he plays, so I am taking this with a grain of salt.

Then the part which I consider the scummiest reason in the universe to vote someone, "trying too hard to look townie."

I actually like SC's explanation of that: it's not the looking townie that's the problem - it's that he's

trying

too hard, which makes it look forced and artificial. I think that's a perfectly valid basis for suspicion. Honestly, I don't agree with your argument here that there's that a strong tie between Box and SC, and feel that much of your case is as much about preferred playstyle as anything solid.

Okay, I still think this is crap.

How can you tell the difference between someone being town and someone trying to be town? What about Neto looked forced and artificial? I think there is no quantifiable way to tell the difference, and that saying that you can tell the difference is unprovable and therefore highly open to manipulation and therefor likely to be used by scum.

I do not think much of my case is about playstyle. The only part I can see about playstyle is the Major HOS part.

[elvis_knits]

Also, this reasoning from Seol is crapola. The whole thing about BigK saying he thought sens was scum, then reread and realized sens was town. The way I see it is this: it could either mean he has no idea who is/was mafia because he isn't mafia (meaning he's town or SK), or it could mean he was faking. No real reason for me to assume either way, so I'm just going to ignore it and put my time into things that are not as WIFOM.

That assumes both possibilities are both equally likely. I don't think that's the case: Boxman's status was the highest-profile issue of the day, and I don't buy anyone not twigging that the guy we were debating over lynching yesterday and were looking at wagons on today was the scum as opposed to anyone else. I can understand BK not knowing who was Mafia as eminently plausible in general: not in this instance. That whole exchange reeks of fakery to me.

I don't buy this argument because of the replacement.

Boxman was replaced by hoopla, and hoopla was listed as the NK victim. I could see someone getting confused. It does say above that post that hoopla replaces boxman, but I still think someone could have been confused and not immediately remembered that hoopla had replaced boxman. And if they didn't remember that, they might not have looked as closely as you think they should have.

I just think there's no way to know on this. And that you're basically putting together a conspiracy theory based on WIFOM. For someone who seems logical and cautious, this behavior does not make sense.

[elvis_knits]

I forgot what you were doing there for a minute.

You almost made my brain explode.

[elvis_knits]

NOBODY HAMMER IECERINT!

[elvis_knits]

Actually, Spyrex, could you just vote someone else who has no votes?

[elvis_knits]

I was just concerned with a kamikazee scum move hammer by SC since he's prob going to get lynched today. Normally I wouldn't expect that to happen, but if we're right about SC, then he has nothing to lose.

[elvis_knits]

Well, in a way, yes. Atleast, my problem with it is now understood. But I don't know exactly what everyone else thought or if it's cleared up for them. I don't think we ever discussed why we didn't like Net's claim. Thinking that it would give scum a better idea how to fake claim effectively if we discussed, or also maybe discern who was vanilla vs. power by how people were talking.

I am almost to the point where I want to discuss this and lay it out on the table. I am very much in favor of full disclosure unless I think there's something we think we will gain from keeping secrets.

I dunno. Perhaps we should discuss more fully after SC claims (assuming it gets that far).

Also, important to remember one of the reasons for lynching Net was he claimed vanilla. So he was either vanilla or scum, and therefore even if we were wrong, the bleeding wouldn't be so bad. Seol taught me a nifty phrase: BWCS (Best Worst Case Scenario).

[elvis_knits]

Spyrex wagon analysis is good for the most part, but I do agree with Iecerint that the statement "there must be one more scum on the wagon, and one more off the wagon" is not necessarily true. I think it is likely to be true, but not necessarily. That said, I like Spyrex's conclusions. I mean, Seol, is getting scummier by the post, IMO. I can do a bigger post on my overall dislike of him, but I think he has enough to answer for at the moment.

The other scum pick of Percy may be good also. I went into today feeling he was town based on a few posts I agreed with. But he hadn't posted much. I don't love the fact that he went after Iecerint yesterday and also today because he's only really gone after one person. That doesn't give me much information on him. Plus I am thinking Iecerint as likely town right now. Also, one of Percy's latest post he said he agreed with me like 10 times. I mean, there's nothing wrong with agreeing with me but it seemed a bit much. Like he was more than agreeing with me but not actually thinking for himself. Because he did it so much. I am not feeling very sure on Percy either way, but I can see where spyrex is coming from.

Spyrex, I think there's probably two more mafia plus an SK. You've named Seol and Percy, any thoughts on a third scum?

Anywho... I am willing to explain what I didn't like about Neto's claim at some point where we think it will not be hurtful to the town.

I will say this: SC hinted that he didn't like the claim either, but NOT for the reason I didn't like it!

[elvis_knits]

(Also: I just noticed that Percy was apparently the first to call BK 3rd party. Elvis, was your read on BK based on Percy's speculation?)

I didn't remember that Percy was the first one to say that.

My idea was not based on Percy. I thought that BK being so non-commital and not really preferring box OR net meant he could be an SK. And not really trying to scum hunt. SK's don't like to anger the mafia, so they tend to scum hunt less. That was my thinking.

I don't think spyrex is the SK anymore though. I mean, not totally sure, but he's making sense to me, so I'm not interested in pursuing him at the moment.

As for telling SK from Mafia at this point, I don't know. I think SC and Seol could be buddies from the way Seol has resisted the awesomeness of the SC wagon, trying to tear down my reasons, while still putting in some points where SC *might* be scum.

[elvis_knits]

Why is SC probably town?

[elvis_knits]

Why is SC probably town?

That was @ Spyrex

[elvis_knits]

I don't think there was much risk of the Net lynch NOT going through at that point. So I don't think it was a risk for SC to stay on Boxman. I also don't think SC really knew what to say about the Neto claim. He said he wasn't sure he could understand "Stethoscope" being a vanilla role. That was mildly confusing, but the OP says role might not match flavor. So... I know he did not have the problem I had with the claim.

[elvis_knits]

No - I'm PRETTY sure I know what your problem is with it. SC's is a lot more "weird".

(FTR if I had replaced in before that lynch I would have fought tooth and nail to get it shifted off Net)

Another Percy tidbit:

If he believed that if Box was scum then Net is scum... where do you think, once the wagons were ACTUALLY up his vote would have been?

I wish I could just explain so we could see if we're on the same page about this... :/ I don't really know what you mean by SC's being a lot more "weird." But I guess you can't explain.

So if Seol is scum, and if SC is town (I'm not convinced yet, but you seem to think this), then why is Seol being so resistant to SC lynch?

Also, it sounds like a lot of the logic you are using to clear SC only clears him of being mafia, so he could still be SK.

I am warming to your Percy idea, because the more I think about it, it is sort of cowardly to vote Iecerint yesterday when he had no chance of being lynched, and stay off the major issues, and to continue to do it today when he is seeming town. Ah, but then again, I still sort of think him town. Conflict!

[elvis_knits]

Do you have an SC meta? I only remember playing with him when he was like total newb.

[elvis_knits]

Soel is IIOA out the wazoo.

[elvis_knits]

Soel is IIOA out the wazoo.

IIOA?

Maybe I didn't used the abbreviation right, since I can't think of words for all the letters. (I have had two beers).

I meant Information over Analysis.

---

Spyrex, there is a mafia plus two other killing roles. I'm assuming Mafia, SK, Vig.

I'm not sure you realize this. Reading the NK's carefully will tell you. There were two kills on Hoopla/boxman. One the bomb, and two the Vig or SK. Probably the SK, since the kill on mathcam was fire and that sounds like an arsonist (SK).

[elvis_knits]

Damn you drunk posting!

I meant:

"Probably the VIG, since the kill on mathcam was fire and that sounds like an arsonist (SK)."

[elvis_knits]

You're just coming off very theory-ish, and I think you're diverting some of the questions or main points of questions by going into theiry.

[elvis_knits]

Seol, this answer for example:

Yeah, quite a few of us did that. I did. You did. mathcam and Sensfan, both known town, did. Unlike us though, Stranger was back on the scum by the end of the day (before Neto's claim, which is what crystallised the wagon into a lynch), and didn't hammer - which could be described as trying to keep a clean record, but is just as likely to be that he preferred to vote Box, as he said.

This is very sneaky, Seol! You are not taking into account the circumstances in which SC changed his vote and the circumstances when me, you, mathcam switched our votes.

Me, you, mathcam changed our votes after neto had claimed vanilla. Claimed vanilla made him a good lynch (as he's either vanilla or scum), and we were trying to stop any role info being discussed. Those are pro-town reasons for switching to Neto.

SC, however, changed his vote from Boxman to Neto on shaky reasoning -- Neto was trying too hard to look town.

Circumstances totally different. Don't compare the two.

It seems we fundamentally disagree on what constitutes a good reason. At this point, I would emphasise that what's important here isn't whether you agree with SC's reasoning, or even whether SC was right or not: what's important is whether SC was making an excuse for a switch, or it was something he genuinely believed. If he thought it was a valid tell, then his vote change is not indicative of alignment.

So if you establish that

SC believed

it was a bad reason, then yes, it's opportunistic and scummy. If not, then it's exactly as informative as any of ours.

Talk about getting into symantics! Now I have to argue what constitutes a good reason with you? Very IIOA. This totally threatens to send us down the rabbit hole, and distracts very much from scumhunting arguments.

I also think that it is much more difficult, if not impossible, to know/prove whether or not SC believed his reason for voting Neto. The best I can do is compare his thinking to my own as well as other town players I have seen over the years. Do I reasonably think that a town player could honestly believe that? Or do I think I have seen that reasoning more from players who are scum? That is how I judge things.

[elvis_knits]

SC: It's not a case on elvis, it's an unresearched compilation of gut feelings. I'd put it not much higher than "healthy suspicion".

@SC... Piggybacking onto Seol's case was lazy BS. As you can see, Seol himself doesn't even consider it a case. So please explain to me why you are voting me.

You like to cast pretty much everything I say and do at this point in a negative light. My FoS system, my Net vote reasoning, my pretty much joining in with Seol to cast suspicion of you (even though I'm aware Seol isn't quite sure about me one way or the other)... I can't help but compare myself to Netopalis right now. You severing your ties with Iecerint and going back to bussing him is the only thing that will make me happy in the foreseeable future.

WHINE.

I admitted that the FOS system could be playstyle. I'm not trying to be unfair to you.

And nowhere in here do I see your reasoning for voting me.

There is no way for me to stop thinking you are scum if you can't even tell me why you are voting me.

I was just concerned with a kamikazee scum move hammer by SC since he's prob going to get lynched today. Normally I wouldn't expect that to happen, but if we're right about SC, then he has nothing to lose.

What makes you think I have nothing to lose if I am scum? Somebody mentioned that, if the Mafia redirector got bombed, then there's a strong Mafiate out there. Do you think it's somebody other than me?

I'm not confessing to anything; I just want to know your train of thought.

I wasn't thinking about trying to tell a goon from a mafia PR. I was thinking that no matter what your role is, if you're caughtscum you would take the chance to hammer a town player and end the day.

I will say this: SC hinted that he didn't like the claim either, but NOT for the reason I didn't like it!

This is saying it before we go there, not accusing you of anything along these lines: If it becomes clear that you think I'm scum just because we disagree about everything, I will hurt you.

You will hurt me? WTF?

I'm not voting you because I disagree with you. You and Seol are currently painting me as some unreasonable person that goes "neenerneenerneener" every time someone disagrees with me or doesn't play the game like I do. That is not true.

Do you have an SC meta? I only remember playing with him when he was like total newb.

If it's the game I'm thinking of, I thought I got lynched before you replaced in. I've gotten much better since then, but still don't consider myself a good player. (And yes, I know that not being a good player is not a defense to anything.)

I think it was family guy mini and I think yeah you might have been lynched D1. I believe you were town who made some mistakes. I was asking for a meta on you because I am really trying to be fair to you and wondered what the possibilities of you being someone who can be very misunderstood. But even if you were that type of player I can't understand why you're OMGUSing me and refusing to give me good reasoning for why you think I'm scum.

[elvis_knits]

BWCS doesn't say "lynch vanilla claims", it says

"vanilla claims are not a reason not to lynch". Claims aren't a defence unless they provide a new perspective on your actions; sometimes claims provide a reason not to lynch.

It's most useful in comparative situations: when you have two candidates who appear equally scummy, consider not just the relative upsides of lynching (EV on scum), but also the relative downsides.

The jump was Net's claim.

That's what pushed the wagon over the edge.

Why would Box also have claimed vanilla? After one vanilla claim we lynch, we don't press for another claim. That's why prematurely claiming is such a bad idea.

One of the worse case scenarios avoided is getting additional claims out there.

I'm not even gonna say much about this. Just bold it and let it be there too look at.

Rebolded for a different emphasis. You can use BWCS to compare two claims (eg lynching claimed vanilla v claimed cop), or you can use it to compare lynching vanilla with pushing another player to claim, which could be vanilla or PR - both of which, in the worst case (ie when that player is town), would be worse than the worst case of lynching your claimed vanilla.

If a wagon progresses to the point where a player claims, that claim is either a reason not to lynch, or the player gets lynched. That's why we don't assume Box would claim.

The jump wasn't

what

Neto claimed, it was

that

he claimed.

Seol, your last sentence is an example of the type of thing I don't like to see from you.

Instead of simplifying an argument, you seem to always find a nuance to make the argument more complicated, while also avoiding resolution. And meanwhile you inject all kinds of IIOA. This gives me an overall impression of manipulation from you. Lots of your responses leave me more confused as to the overall argument than before you said anything.

---

RE: The whole magic box BWCS debate:

I don't buy into SpyreX's argument about BWCS. I don't think BWCS is necessarily scummy. I believe lynching a vanilla claim D1 is an excellent way to start the game (not that I hope they flip town... lol). Lynching a person that most think are scummy, who will either flip scum or vanilla, is a good thing. That is my personal feelings on the matter, but I have seen people argue against it, so I don't think SpyreX is scummy for disliking BWCS either. I have seen town players take both sides of this issue. Both Spyrex and Seol need to acknowledge this.

Spyrex is right that BWCS could be used as an excuse to lynch. Could be. But BWCS is not inherently scummy.

You know, If I were scum, I would have unvoted a vanilla claim because on D1 I really want to lynch a PR or make a PR claim so I know who to NK. So in that sense, I would expect scum to unvote Neto after his claim -- which nobody did. But, the other leading bandwagon, boxman, being scum, would discourage scum from unvoting Neto, since if Neto lynch doesn't happen, boxman lynch probably does.

So I guess Boxman being the other leading wagon makes it more likely that scum would want Neto lynched, and probably increases the chances that BWCS was used as a smokescreen.

My conclusion is still that I think BWCS is not inherently scummy and I don't want to used it as a basis for suspecting Seol.

[elvis_knits]

And nowhere in here do I see your reasoning for voting me.

There is no way for me to stop thinking you are scum if you can't even tell me why you are voting me.

If you cannot see my reason for voting you, then you are blind.

I obviously don't get it, SC. Why are you being difficult? Point me to the correct post or just summarize for me. That shouldn't take you more than a minute.

The only thing I can find is when you piggybacked on Seol:

Basically Seol's case with my input that you're stretching a lot to find a case on me. Different levels of FoS's are not scummy, and voting someone for trying too hard to look town is voting someone for being unnatural; therefore, that is not scummy either.

If this all you got, that means you are voting me because you don't like me voting you, think I'm stretching the case on you.

Which is OMGUS.

I don't think you actually think I am scum.

Like this sentence for example:

If it becomes clear that you think I'm scum just because we disagree about everything, I will hurt you.

It shows that you're frustrated with me, but it also shows that you accept that I "think you're scum." If I were scum, I wouldn't think you're scum. I would know who is scum and be trying to make townies look like scum but not actually think they are scum. Only a townie, who is actually scum hunting, would think people are scum.

So I think you are either frustrated town or frustrated scum, who is voting me because you want me to unvote you. It is a defensive maneuver.

If you are frustrated town, you need to start looking for scum.

[elvis_knits]

I'm trying to digest everything and think very carefully about this. It's slightly hard for me to see both Seol and Percy as scum since I came in today thinking them both town.

Spyrex, your argument about BWCS in this situation does make sense. I usually take the stance that vanilla claim should not stop a lynch in the case of someone you were already voting for/intended to vote for. And I think you're right that is not exactly what happened with Neto... I think you are right that people who didn't really have any intention of lynching Neto piled onto him after claiming vanilla (myself included here). And no matter how Seol parses his words and spins things...

"vanilla claim does not stop a lynch" =/= "if someone claims vanilla we must lynch immediately"

At the time of Neto's claim, I had an [undisclosed] problem which made me think that I had been wrong in my town read of him. And I do generally think lynching vanilla is a good idea. My intentions were good, which made me think Seol's were. We know mathcam meant well, and sensfan also (although he didn't vote after the claim, he did comment he wanted hammer.

But I do see your point, Spyrex, that in the situation where the other leading wagon was scum, it favors scum wanting Neto's mislynch very badly. And Seol did not seem like he wanted Neto's lynch before that, which speaks in favor of your interpretation.

I still think it would be possible for Seol to have pro-town motivations for his behavior on the Neto lynch. But combined with the way he voted you before you had a chance to post, the way he is parsing, complicating, tap-dancing, and IIoA-ing, I'm starting to think you are right about him.

And Percy with his OMGUS on Spyrex is not thrilling me at the moment.

unvote; Vote: Seol

[elvis_knits]

I want to tell so badly.

Although, the more I think about it, I sort of feel stupid that I hung the entire lynch on it.

[elvis_knits]

So should I tell now or wait? I think I can explain it without giving anything away.

[elvis_knits]

Okay. I can't keep it in!

Neto claimed something along the lines of "my role is vanilla townie and my noun is Stethoscope."

Well, I know this is nouns mafia and all, but my role PM doesn't say "your noun is "x."" I don't think this gives anything away to tell you because the OP sample PM is more like mine, in the way that my rolename is actually a name. So, yeah it's a noun, but it's not referred to as such. I didn't go around all day thinking, "I am a noun!"

I thought that claiming "My noun is X" looked unnatural given my knowledge of my role pm, and maybe like he was trying very hard to conform to the flavor of the game because he was faking.

I started to wonder if the scum do not have nouns as their rolenames -- like maybe their PM's say something like "You are "x," an adjective, and you hate nouns! You must destroy all nouns!!!!!eleven"

This has been disproven since seeing Hoopla/boxman flip "The Candlestick from Clue" which is a noun.

But I thought that if the scum were NOT nouns, they would be more aware that they should claim nouns, and would be more likely to claim in the way Neto did.

All in all, I think this was very stupid, and I wish I had pushed us to discuss it, because we might have averted yesterday's mislynch if someone had told me how stupid this line of thinking was.

Anyway.

That's it.

I feel better, Spyrex.

Hold me.

[elvis_knits]

<3

Spyrex, you've said you think the mafia might have another power role. I'm thinking you're not just speculating on a GF. I'm wondering if it's like a mafia doc since we do seem to have a lot of killing roles up in here. SC was saying this game can't be balanced. What mafia pr's do you think we might have?

[elvis_knits]

Good point about mafia doc.

[elvis_knits]

IF I MAKE YOU ANOTHER CASE, WILL YOU FINALLY TELL ME WHY YOU ARE VOTING ME, SC????

---

1) Hypocrite; not starting the ball rolling

scumteam = sensfan, boxman, macavitylock

confirm or deny?

Sounds as good as anything else right now

Joking post. (Read, anti-informational).

Wee. Not much going on is there?

Unvote: MacavityLock
Vote: Boxman for stating the obvious. Why sit on the sidelines when there's lot of opportunity to start the ball rolling?

First vote on Boxman. If there's any safe time to vote your buddy it's when nobody else is doing it. And if others are going to vote your buddy, might as well do it first.

Encourages bxoman to start the ball rolling when SC himself was not "starting the ball rolling himself." See last post where he joked instead of started the ball rolling.

Follows up with a fluff post:

Why does your avatar look familiar, Seol?

Net makes some joke about Seol being old fogey. Followed by SC conversational:

That's a possibility.

So these posts are in direct conflict with SC's expressed opinion that we should be getting the ball rolling and not farting around.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2) Boxman vote wasn't serious; didn't think boxman would be lynched

It's kind of hard to call my vote on Boxman a second random vote, though I was aware of the unlikelihood that he'd be lynched on that alone.

Shows that he did not consider his vote on bxoman very serious, and that he did not think boxman was in danger of being lynched for it (increases the liklihood that a scum would vote their buddy if they thought they weren't going to have to lynch said buddy).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3)Hypocrisy re: anti-informational

I actually think refusing to partake in discussion is pretty strong as it's anti-information.

In direct conflict with his early behavior where he was anti-informational.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


4)Again, didn't think/want boxman lynched

I thought it had been established that Boxman's not very likely to be lynched on just opting to sit out, as much as I like the tell.

Again, showing he did not think his vote on boxman would lead to boxman's lynch. And also suggesting that maybe boxman should not be lycnhed just for opting to sit out.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


5)Vague accusations

Something rings false with Netopalis's case on SensFan, but I can't pinpoint it exactly.

This is a scummy way to suspect someone, since there is no attached reason. "This person seems scummy for some reason that I just can't think of at the moment."

It is a way of injecting doubt into the discussion, testing the waters to see if there is support for lynching the guy, and also to slowly move yourself over there, so when you vote people aren't surprised.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


6)THE AWFULNESS

Unvote: Boxman and demote him to a Major HoS
Vote: Netopalis

The end of page 10 looks a lot like he's trying too hard to look town. #247 is awful.

This jump off boxman is very suspicious to me. SC has clarified that he was not saying he can tell the difference between someone who is town and someone trying to look town (as I originally thought). He has since said that Neto was trying to look town and failing.

I still to not see how Neto was "trying to look town and failing," or how any person could know such a thing.

I think this move off known scum is HIGHLY suspect.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7)More vague accusations

Today opens with SC making vague accusations against me, and also "something doesn't seem right about Percy." Which is the same bullshit he tried to sell us yesterday about Netopalis!

[elvis_knits]

I also want to know why SC didn't comment on my discussion of Net's claim and why I didn't like it.

[elvis_knits]

Well, most of SC's case on me is that he doesn't like my case on him. A few other things that I can respond to if he wants but I think I already have explained so I'm not sure it's worth any of our time.

Basically his case is what I thought it was: OMGUS.

Town do that too sometimes though. I think it's a mistake to equate "I don't like that guys case on me" with "That guy must be scum," which is what SC is doing. But I understand the feeling. I have felt that way too sometimes.

As I said earlier, if SC is town, I look forward to seeing him scumhunt. I don't mean to insult him, because he thinks he has been. I just mean, I look forward to him establishing some cases on people that are not based on how he dislikes an attack on him.

I am trying to give him a chance, which should be evidenced by my unvoting him. I think my continued pressure is actually stopping me from getting what I want, which is to see him analyze, question other people.

I don't feel like singing Kumbaya by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it would be more productive at this point to just move onto some other topics and see if I can't either change my read or be more sure by seeing him scum hunt.

[elvis_knits]

Okay FINE!

:sings kumbaya:

[elvis_knits]

I don't think we can assume Spyrex is totally right about that -- that there was one scum on Neto post claim, and one scum off neto at day's end.

Primary reason is that is only two scum, and there are likely two mafia and an SK. So even if he was right, we would still need another.

I think that his analysis should be used as a tool and jumping off point, not as a complete black-and-white type of thing.

[elvis_knits]

I don't really have time right now for too much.

Spyrex, what are you doing unvoting Seol?

Stay on track!

Percy, spyrex voting you is not OMGUS. You voting him was OMGUS, since he suspected you first.

Will post more when I can.

[elvis_knits]

I don't think Percy or Spyrex are that scummy. Sometimes I think one of them may have a point, but when I read them in ISO I'm just not overwhelmed with a scummy read on either.

The best thing we can do now is lynch Seol (or SC although I have sworn to give him some breathing room).

[elvis_knits]

EK, has Konowa done anything to change your suspicion of him? Is lingering Konowa suspicion part of the reason that you switched from SC to Seol?

No, Konowa hasn't done anything (at all). PUN!

No, he hasn't done anything to change my mind. Partly he hasn't been too active, which sounds like it's because of real life stuff, his wife's appendix bursting and such. So I don't blame him for that at all, but it's hard for me to get a better read on him. So nothing has changed, no.

My top three are prob, Seol, SC, and Konowa. Konowa farther behind than the other two though.

I think it might be good for everyone to post a top two or three since deadline is Dec2. Posting will probably pick up after the holiday weekend, but we need to be ready to sort things out quickly. So whenever people get a free moment, just say who your top 2-3 people are.

Vote Count Twelf

StrangerCoug:

3 (Konowa, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

Percy:

2 (SpyreX)

SpyreX:

2 (Percy, Seol)

MacavityLock:

1 (StrangerCoug)

Seol:

1 (elvis_knits)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Your rapidly approaching Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[elvis_knits]

Why does seol make more sense logistically?

[elvis_knits]

...

Seol is not lynched.

My vote has been on Seol for a bit, so that's one. Iecerint voted Seol then unvoted. So back to one. Spyrex puts two more on Seol, so that's three.

Seol is L-2. He is not lynched.

[elvis_knits]

WHY did SC not comment on this supposed hammer on Seol??

He just posted, after Spyrex supposedly hammered and Percy seems to have believed it, and SC makes no mention of it.

Vote Count 13

Seol:

3 (SpyreX, elvis_knits)

StrangerCoug:

2 (Konowa, MacavityLock)

SpyreX:

2 (Percy, Seol)

MacavityLock:

1 (StrangerCoug)

Not Voting:

(Iecerint)

Seol

is

L-2

.

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Your rapidly approaching Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[elvis_knits]

The more I think about this, I think it's really weird.

Spyrex, why did you think you were hammering Seol and why were you willing to do it without hearing any responses from him or giving him a chance to claim?

[elvis_knits]

unvote Seol; vote spyrex

I was thinking the same thing Seol said -- that Spyrex already said he didn't know why he had a double vote or that he wasn't expecting it. It looks like he lied or misled us... in addition to that fake hammer that was anti-town, and him being to careless with a double votes... I'm voting him.

I'm not sure where I stand with Seol, but I think this trumps that.

[elvis_knits]

That should be 3 votes on spyrex, and L-2, FTR.

I don't want any more shenanigans.

[elvis_knits]

elvis then votes me for talking theory - both on the BWCS issue and the SC issue (which relates to an old misconception that leads to a shit-ton of mislynches, the old "being wrong is scummy" issue) - and for spending too long getting into semantics on it - there, my intent was never to confuse, but to clarify.

Have I misunderstood? Am I missing anything? Because if the case on me is a combination of being 4th on the wagon, citing BWCS, and being me - well, that's not something I'm going to bother defending against any more.

You actually did miss something, I didn't like the vote you threw on bigk/spyrex after he was replaced but before he had a chance to post. I think it's anti-town to switch your vote to a replacement before you read their posts and make a more informed decision. When a replacement is coming in, that is your chance to refine your read. I wouldn't expect a player to UNvote the replacement just out of policy, but if you're not already voting the replaced player, I would not expect you to pick that chance to vote. It makes me think you are not interested in hearing what the replacement has to say.

I think you addressed this at one point, but I still have a problem with it.

[elvis_knits]

Oh he says he saw iecerint's unvote, and this was not a secret hammer.

When I read that and saw percy having a cow, I thought that Spyrex meant "this isn't a secret hammer, I know I'm hammering."

In actuality he didn't mean to hammer and knew he wasn't hammering.

unvote

[elvis_knits]

Well, I don't know what to make of spyrex the double-voter who didn't know he was a double voter.

I would assume a double voter who didn't know he was a double voter to have been given the ability by someone else. That's the way I have seen it work in the past. By spyrex says he *thinks* it's due to his role. How you would *think* but not KNOW, not really sure. Spyrex... can you ask mod to clarify?

Parh/bigK not ever voting supports that maybe they did know they had a double vote. But spyrex says no... :/

Anyway, not sure this helps us get closer to lynching, which we need to do ASAP.

I'm going to reread a little, thinking if I want to revote Seol or SC. I'm thinking I will go one of those two places.

[elvis_knits]

Seol, can you tell me who you think is scummy at this point with maybe a little short reasoning. (Be as long as you want -- I just mean for my sake I don't need you to do a lot of work for it if you don't have time or motivation).

I'm sure spyrex is up there, but who else are you suspicious of?

[elvis_knits]

You actually did miss something, I didn't like the vote you threw on bigk/spyrex after he was replaced but before he had a chance to post. I think it's anti-town to switch your vote to a replacement before you read their posts and make a more informed decision. When a replacement is coming in, that is your chance to refine your read. I wouldn't expect a player to UNvote the replacement just out of policy, but if you're not already voting the replaced player, I would not expect you to pick that chance to vote. It makes me think you are not interested in hearing what the replacement has to say.

I think you addressed this at one point, but I still have a problem with it.

Okay, well for the record I'll restate my position: I had reason to suspect b_k was scum (I know you didn't agree with it), so I thought that, based on the information currently out there, he was the best place for my vote. It's always good to hear more, but that doesn't mean that what people said before they were replaced should be disregarded, or that you need a watertight case before putting that vote on - especially when it is, after all, only a first vote.

It's not something Spyre can address, so talking to him about

that

won't really help (he's no more informed than anyone else) - it's a point which, one way or the other, is on the record and nothing will alter. That's not to say I wasn't interested in hearing lots more from Spyre, but my vote wasn't going to interfere with that. As I recall, you didn't like my position much: I'm mostly restating it for the benefit of everyone else.

Seol, the main reason you gave for voting bigK was that you thought his mix-up about the night actions was a fabrication. This is a WIFOM reason, one that I don't think is very good from ANYONE, and one that I see as particularly out of character for you. You seem very logical, so this does not seem like a reason you would put much weight on. I cannot see why that was compelling enough for you to put your vote there, especially when you were about to get a better read on the player slot by reading posts by spyrex.

I know we've talked on this issue, but I don't think you've defended why this was a compelling reason to vote bigK. Do you disagree that it's WIFOM?

This is your post where you vote bigK, for reference:

big_kahunia: Oh dear. I didn't like him before, and I really don't like him now.

Check that. Hoopla was mafia, not Sensfan. My bad. I skimmed Drake’s post.

This really rings false for me. Particularly the 4-minute gap between the posts: it feels engineered, intentional. This is particularly true given that much of the discussion to that point was centred on Box being scum and the consequences thereon.

Of course, if it

was

intentional, that puts BK as scum feigning ignorance of the NK situation. I'm still interested in the Macavity situation, but that's enough for an

unvote, vote: big_kahunia

- especially on top of bk's noncommittal play.

I'm also very annoyed that the replacer replaced out himself - that's really not a good show - but that's a separate issue.

[elvis_knits]

You know, I did think BK was scummy for not contributing and such. But spyrex has seemed town to me.

Seol, if bigK had never existed, and you were only looking at spyrex, would you still feel the same way? I mean, I'm sure it's a bit hard to say since he's voting you and you don't agree with his reasoning, but I'd just like to know what you think.

[elvis_knits]

Well, I don't know about him being ridiculous.

However, the stuff Spyrex is saying about his role is not making me feel very good about him.

He claims he didn't know he is a double voter, even though the behavior of his predecessors suggests they did know and possibly were being careful or wanted to keep it a secret. Also, saying his role is ambiguous makes me suspicious too. I don't think this is a bastard mod game, and I can't really think of roles that are ambiguous. I'm getting a little afraid here. It seems like a convenient excuse.

[elvis_knits]

Interesting. I find that believable. But Drake doesn't PM you to tell you when your abilities change?

[elvis_knits]

Another possibility is that he's SK who thinks Seol is scum. Maybe he's hoping tilting the wagon Seol's way will clear him if he's right.

If spyrex is scum, this is the possibility I would bet on. I am a little shakier in my read of him than I once was but I still have a gut feeling that he is town. Just the way he has played has seemed very involved and the opposite of sneaky. Going after Seol and Percy was like the least obvious of moves unless he really thinks they are scum. And he had to have known it would open him up to a lot of hurt by going after them. Scum tend to be hit on targets that are not going to fight so hard or be so unpopular.

On the other hand, we have Seol who started much of the Neto questioning and then disappeared for most of Day 1, coming in for the lynch at the end of the day. Then Day 2 he comes in and votes macavity lock, which seems a fly-under-the-radar sort of easy target. Seol doesn't even talk much about macavity lock while he's voting the guy. Then he switches his vote to bigK, and you know how I feel about that one. HE has spent most of that day disagreeing with me about SC. There's lots of places where he argues against my points. Stuff like this:

But really, there isn't much against SC that I think has much merit, and I get the impression much of your case is personal antagonism leading to confirmation bias.

Now all the sudden:

I think I'd put SC as my #2 suspect

What changed in the interim, Seol?

This really feels like SC is becoming the default lynch in case he can't get spyrex lynched. He knows there is support for SC, and is hoping that will save him from death in a Seol vs. Spyrex showdown. Naming SC as his number 2 suspect seems like a desperate move at this point.

Also, lol of lols, Percy has switched his vote to SC this page also! How convenient! To be fair though, Percy has named SC as his second pick for a long time now and has been saying he thinks spyrex is buddies with SC. So it is more in keeping with his prior opinions.

The thing that is slightly of concern to me is that Percy wanted Iecerint dead all yesterday and all today until Spyrex came in and attacked him. The Percy let go of Iecerint and voted spyrex and moved SC up to number 2 scumminess. and now that nobody is joining him and Seol on Spyrex, he has falled back on voting SC. So I do think there is an element of OMGUS in Percy's Spyrex vote, and that voting SC feels like a fall-back defensive maneuver possibly to save Seol. This is really WIFOM though, and as I said, Percy has been clear that he thinks Spyrex and SC are buddies, so this could possibly be above-board.

Back to Seol and why I think he's sneaky.

He did start much of the early netopalis questioning re: setup speculation which I think really fueled the Netohate. I count 6 posts directed at Neto early on this subject and the practice of wagoning.

I thought his posts were implying that he thought Neto was scummy, and I think others did to, and in part led to Sensfan and others continuing attacks of Neto. Basically, the way I read that was Seol votes boxman (scum), then poses biased questions to Neto(town) over several posts, being one of the founding forces in the Neto hate, then disappears (he said he was busy) and lets others finish his attacks.

The things I don't like about that:
1)He asked some very accusatory questions of Neto, without voting him. That seems dishonest.
2)He started lines of thought that led to continued badgering of Neto, then disappeared, avoiding much of the blame.

Seol has said he thinks we have a playstyle/personality clash. I don't think so, but I am interested in hearing if anyone agrees with Seol on this, because I don't want to be blind to it.

I also don't like the way he has spoken about me, but I'm probably going to be a bit biased there! He has made a number of snide comments about me, implying but never coming outright and saying he thinks I'm scum. I feel that if you imply but don't be clear or vote for a person that it can be just an attempt to discredit them and convince the town that that player should not be listened to. Which, is again, manipulative.

I'll post a few of the comments he's made about me that I think are attempt to discredit me:

Your attack on Sensfan didn't ring true at all

felt unreasonably aggressive. Basically, it came across to me as an engineered argument; finding a reason to attack as opposed to genuine suspicion.

also has that quality of feeling unreasonably aggressive; attacking for the sake of attacking, and notably different in tone to how you're talking to anyone else.

I'm not keen on elvis, but that's one for when I've got time to investigate further and work out why: I know a lot of my impression is due to her playing somewhat abrasively here, I'm not sure if that accounts for all of it or not.

I would caution you not to put too much faith in the flip - elvis is most certainly not cleared, not by any stretch of the imagination. For the record, my position on elvis at the moment is:

I don't like how aggressive she's playing, I feel she's tunnelling badly and her reasoning isn't as strong as it could be. I feel she's overplaying the importance of people's positions on the Box wagon, am concerned that there's a possibility she's trying to establish that as a primary metric on the basis that it puts her in the clear, and thinking back to yesterday she seems almost too strongly on Box, moreso than I would expect an uninformed player to be.

This is all impressions at the moment, not a researched and supported position, and I don't think it's as strong as either BK or Macavity, but there's a lot about elvis which I'm uncomfortable about. It may be that she's just coming on too strong, but it doesn't feel right.

Basically, there are no real reasons in any of this. All his attacks on me are personal. He thinks I am too aggressive -- "unreasonably aggressive" like there is some way to measure reaonable aggression and if you go over the line you are scum??? This is a totally unquantifiable attack, completely subjective and not indicative of allignment. My attack on sensfan didn't "ring true." That's another BS statement.

The last quote really gets me riled up though because he says I was tunneling, when I clearly never have been (and isn't tunneling usually something town do?). He's arguing pretty strongly against my attack on SC (compare to him naming SC as his number 2 suspect now!).

Also, the fact that I mostly wanted to lynch boxman yesterday and was against Neto mostly... he argues points to me being an informed player -- another way of saying I am scum without actually saying it! That is like him saying:

"How did you know boxman was scum and Neto was town? You must be scum who knew their allignments and was trying hard all day to lynch your buddy. LEt's lynch elvis!"

Does anyone else think that is the height of WRONG?

He has accused me of disliking him because of a playstyle/personality clash, when he is the one attacking me for personal reasons and trying to say that my playstyle means something about my allignment.

He recently backed off of this... but it's too late for me not to have noticed. And the way he has flipped on his position on SC does not make sense.

Sorry this is so long...
TL;DR: Seol's change in stance on SC is unsupported and is a desperation move to save himself. He fueled early Netohate, helping to blow things out of proportion. He has been quietly undermining me all game for no good reason.

Vote Seol

[elvis_knits]

1)Maybe easy target wasn't the right wording. But ML didn't seem like the he could be the MOST scummy in anyone's mind, and he didn't seem like someone who could really get Seol in trouble. ML was sort of a middle of the road suspect, someone who I was vaguely suspicious of, but not someone who has ever approached the top of my list. So Seol isn't going to get into a lot of trouble since ML is sort of suspicious. But at the same time, I find it hard to believe he was the MOST suspicious to Seol. Seol didn't even discuss ML very much, which supports that.

2)I can see people seeing me as aggressive also. I don't mind that. I mind him framing me as "OVER-aggressive" or UNREASONABLY aggressive" and trying to paint me as scummy because of that. It reminds me of another argument I see scum use: "Over-defensive." First of all, when you're attacked you have to defend yourself. And it's pretty scummy to attack a person and then call them even scummier for defending themselves. And it's this BS matter of degree that I do not like... how do you know when a person is over-defensive, or over-aggressive?

P.S. I don't think you agree with me all the time. You seem to agree a fair amount (which is only natural since I think I am right :halo:), but you also seem to be naturally inquisitive and question me over my points and say what parts you don't agree with. What is your point... do you want me to accuse you of buddying?

With Percy I did notice him agreeing with me a lot, but I felt the same with him yesterday. It was really only one post today where he said he flatly agreed with me like 5 or 6 times that it seemed like maybe it was too much and maybe a fabrication. Still, I'm not sure if Percy is scum, even is Seol is scum.

[elvis_knits]

I suppose we can always check out SX's abilities tomorrow to get a better idea of his alignment. The only problem is that I suspect he'll become NK-proof and/or lynch-proof if he's a real SK.

If Spyrex is an SK he is likely NK immune anyway (common SK ability), and lynchproof seems like it's too unbalanced. If he's an SK I would not necessarily believe his role information is correcty anyway, so I wouldn't assume that he's Benjamin Button, SK who gains abilities every night.

Remember that the SK is an arsonist. Benjamin Button, arsonist SK, doesn't make much sense to me. If he's an SK, I think he's lying about being Benjamin Button.

I mostly think Spyrex is town, but I am keeping other possibilities in the back of my mind.

[elvis_knits]

ML, what is your opinion of Seol?

[elvis_knits]

Yeah, I don't really understand what SC is saying either.

Seol refusing to claim means he's vanilla or scum.

I don't mind hearing his responses to points though. We aren't on deadline anymore.

[elvis_knits]

Okay, so I know it's only day 2, but this game has a lot of kills and I think we should talk about this. We have 8 players left.

We know we have mafia, arsonist and vig, which is potentially 3 kills tonight.

Right now, I assume there are 2 mafia, one arsonist, and then 5 town.

If we lynch wrong, we go to 2 mafia, 1 SK, 4 Town. 3 kills tonight could go a lot of different ways. We could benefit from some cross-killing action, or we could be decimated. The game could be over, or continue with a small town due to different scum factions having the majority.

Even if we lynch right, we could still have 3 kills. If we lynch the SK we would only have 2 kills, but if we lynch mafia and there's still another mafia left, we could have three kills even if we lynch right.

I'm scared.

I also suck at planning. Is there any way to maximize town benefit from this?

Help me, Spyrex, you are my only hope. (Get it? Star Wars reference??)

Oh, other people please help too.

[elvis_knits]

No matter how seol flips, that was anti-town. I just brought up something important that you have totally ignored.

[elvis_knits]

BTW, I am the vig and I am killing SC tonight.

I will probably live through the night because now that I have claimed I will likely get a doc protect.

Goodnight.

[elvis_knits]

P.S. If I am dead for whatever reason and SC is alive, assume he is the SK or GF and lynch him asap.

[elvis_knits]

Claim your rolename, or else I will assume you are an SK or a GF with NK immunity.

[elvis_knits]

Do

It

Now

We are short on time.

[elvis_knits]

Dammit, SC, if you are telling the truth, why did you hammer Seol like that?

I was trying to work out the F-ing night actions before you stepped in and hammered.

GOD.

I hope Seol is scum, but still, you should have waited.

[elvis_knits]

:cries:

We might still be able to figure things out.

I wish I knew how much time we had before drake comes in and locks the thread.

I think I know what to do now.

If there is a doc out there -- don't protect me. Protect somebody else.

[elvis_knits]

Where is spyrex when I need him?

[elvis_knits]

My role is more complicated than that, but no, I am not 1-shot.

[elvis_knits]

Also, I do not have to shoot tonight. I am not compulsive vig. I'm still trying to figure out if I should shoot or not. IT may depend on Seol and what he flips, whether it's town, SK or mafia.

[elvis_knits]

OK. Percy, you

MUST VIG CORRECTLY TONIGHT

. That will put us in the best position possible. If Seol is the second and final Mafia and you kill the SK or vice versa, town wins, and that's what we want. If there is a third Mafiate, we have more work to do.

What?

Percy?

I'm confused.

[elvis_knits]

WHy did you call me percy?

[elvis_knits]

"Lynch me if I know."

?

What was that supposed to say? I'm assuming it was a typo but I can't figure it out.

[elvis_knits]

I thought you said SC was town?

Did the hammer change your mind?

[elvis_knits]

Also, Spyrex

THANK GOD YOU ARE HERE!

[elvis_knits]

If Seol is town or mafia, and we have two killing roles out there, I DO NOT WANT DOC PROTECTION.

Both teams will have to target me, and I will take one for the team to reduce the number of NK's.

[elvis_knits]

I wonder if ML saw my post where I claimed vig. I simulposted him, so hypothetically he probably saw it, then didn't comment. But maybe not everyone reads their posts after posting?

[elvis_knits]

lol, super-fast reply once I called him out!

[elvis_knits]

I'm trying to decide about SC.

If he's scum, I could see him claiming bulletproof if 1)he is not NK immune and wants to dissuade me from killing him, or 2)he is NK immune but wanted to explain ahead of time why he's not going to die.

Although, from the way SC posts, I'm wondering if he'd be able to think that fast. And maybe he's just telling the truth.

But shouldn't a bulletproof player be TRYING to draw the NK? I don't think he's done that.

Notice how Sensfan made some hypothetical statement about "If I were the cop..." and then he got the axe? I think he did that to draw the kill and it totally worked. Since he knew he was a bomb.

SC, have you tried ot draw the NK? If so, where did you try?

[elvis_knits]

I vigged boxman/hoopla.

My flavor was "x-busted."

[elvis_knits]

I vigged boxman/hoopla.

My flavor was "x-busted."

That's why I kept trying to say we had a vig and was mad at SC for saying he didn't think he had one. Which I took to be him fishing for the vig.

[elvis_knits]

Also, I'm "Mega Man" if that helps.

[elvis_knits]

Why were you arguing with me about their being a vig?

I thought you were fishing for a vig.

[elvis_knits]

I thought that might be the case, @ elvis.

I thought you knew! Because you seemed to believe there was a vig from the beginning, and be picking up on me.

You also argued with SC a little about there being a vig, which I hoped people might think YOU were the vig, and thus not make me so obvious. So I thought you were helping me out, trying to throw people off. One of the reasons I thought you were town, btw.

I agree with ML's post. This might end up like a genocide, but there's hope. I think you should shoot SC. If he's town, at least you didn't kill a townie. If he's lying scum, a winnar is you. This is moderated a little based upon whether Seol is scum and whether the details of your role make other things worth it, but we don't necessarily need to know about that.

The thing about my role is that if my action is not completed I will lose it. So if I target a bulletproof, or an NK immune SK or a NK immune GF, I will turn vanilla. Which is not horrible, but I would like to kill scum.

[elvis_knits]

I'm not shooting you, Spyrex. If you're scum, good job.

[elvis_knits]

The thing about my role is that if my action is not completed I will lose it. So if I target a bulletproof, or an NK immune SK or a NK immune GF, I will turn vanilla. Which is not horrible, but I would like to kill scum.

And simul-post with this crap. Dammit, elvis, why you gots to be throwing this wrench in my awesome plan?

lol

Sorry.

[elvis_knits]

Yea, I think I'm swinging my support behind Percy (scum) or Konowa (other).

I actually have that warm feeling in my belly about all the talkers at the moment.

I have warm feeling about you, Iecerint and ML. Still not sure about SC.

[elvis_knits]

Well, if Seol is town, probably all of SC, Percy and Konowa are scum.

If Seol is scum, only two of them are.

[elvis_knits]

I will probably do a little reading after the flip but I anticipate vigging SC or Percy. Partially may have to do with what Seol flips.

[elvis_knits]

First of all, why does a doctor not claim?

Second, why did all the scum target spyrex? It was supposed to be me.

Third, I targetted StrangerCoug last night. Obviously, my kill did not go through. I do not know the exact cause for my kill failing. I am trying to sort out what everything means. I'll lay it out for you because it's sort of complicated.

My role is Mega Man. My role is Vig. But there is a twist. If my kill/action is unsuccessful, I lose all abilities. If my kill/action is successful, I gain all abilities of the player I targetted, and they replace my current action(s). So, N1, when I targetted boxman/hoopla, I gained both boxman/hoopla's abilities (kill and redirect). I could only use one of these actions, however. I chose to kill StrangerCoug.

I was under the impression that the redirect would be lost since I used my kill. And the kill would be replaced with any abilities StrangerCoug had. But my kill failed. The flavor sounds like I might have been blocked. And I was told that my kill ability is gone but that I still retain the redirect ability for use tonight.

I am unsure whether the flavor indicates that I was blocked or that I failed because SC is NK immune. And even if he is NK immune, I don't think that necessarily indicates him being town (and BP, like he said). He could just as easily be SK or GF.

All in all, I do not buy his crappy hammer on Seol when Seol had promised to give replies (even though he refused to claim.)

I do not buy that SC failed to read the post before his hammer, where I laid out the potential problem with the night actions, and the town's possibility of being decimated.

I do not buy all of SC's vig fishing, and claims that the game was unbalanced if he knew he was a BP townie.

I do not buy that he didn't think to try to draw nightkills if he was a BP townie.

I think SC should die today.

However, it's probably lylo, and I don't think anyone should be voting yet.

We need to do a mass claim, and we need to try to figure out who ALL the scum are.

We need to lynch scum today and then we need to figure out who the other scums are so that I can redirect one scum to kill the other one. I think we can still win if we do that, right?

[elvis_knits]

I agree with ML and don't think we should be confirming people. End of yesterday I did pretty much think Iecerint and ML were town, but I am not willing to hang the game on that. I want to go through everything and question everything.

Regarding my night actions.

I have had some pming with him throughout the game trying to figure out what I can and cannot do and repercussions of that.

At one point, he specifically told me that if I targetted someone for a kill, and was successful, and gained their actions, they would replace all actions that I previously held, whether I had used them or not. In essence, if my kill on SC had gone through, I would gain whatever he had, but lose the kill and the redirect, even though I had never used the redirect.

I took this to mean that if my night actions were not successful that I would lose all actions whether I had used them or not.

Which seems like it is not the case.

It seems that whatever action I use (if it gets blocked or is unsuccesful for some reason) gets lost, but I still retain the unused ability because I have not replaced my actions due to unseccessful attempt (and it is the success that causes my actions to change).

[elvis_knits]

My hypothesis for spyrex is that he became a lightening rod and was able to draw all NKs to himself.

I mean, even if scum banked on me becoming vanilla last night, it seems very convenient that they would both decide to hit spyrex. Spyrex didn't even know if he would gain more abilites. He might have just stayed doublevoter. If they're not going to kill me, wouldn't they try to go after a potential cop?

[elvis_knits]

Popcorn, elvis chooses next to claim?

I want one of percy/budja to go first. Then Iecerint. I want ML to go last. I know I can't just set the whole order, but that is what I would do if I had my wish.

Conclusion: As a direct result of the above, it is likely that SC is some sort of scum, and that the scum faction that doesn't include him has a roleblocker. I think the most likely case is that SC is NK-immune SK, and that there is a maf faction with two players remaining, one who killed SpyreX, and one who roleblocked elvis.

Spyrex speculated on the mafia power roles he thought possible. He didn't name MafiaRB. He said something about "other common scum power roles don't make sense because of [secret information]." Which I guess was some sort of role-based hypothesis? Maybe he thought a RBer wouldn't work with his "evolving" role? I meant to ask about this and forgot.

But if there is a mafia RB, then SC doesn't need to be NK-immune SK. We only need to have a mafia RB -OR- a nk-immune SK for my night result to happen.

[elvis_knits]

I don't think that would've gone into effect until tonight. I agree that the targeting choice is bizarre, though, especially given the doctor flip. Maybe both teams thought SX was the other faction?

Actually, good point. Maybe you're right.

If we are all claiming, I must claim before ML. That is my only condition.

Fine by me.

[elvis_knits]

Good point. SC can change his claim if he wants.

SC, CLAIM FIRST!

[elvis_knits]

(I'm really hoping the SK realizes his best bet is to claim he's the SK)

[elvis_knits]

I was just about to post my claim too .

Anyway, I've read day1 and skimmed the end of day 2.
SC behaviour at the end of day 2 makes him my top lynch.
EK is obv town for her early comments on Neo/Box (and for the proven claim now )
ML feels townish, very similar play to my last game with him.
No read on Percy/Iec yet.

If theres anything specific you want to point out to me, please go ahead.

I'm so glad you're up to date (or up to date enough to participate).

Thank you!

[elvis_knits]

At one point, he specifically told me that if I targetted someone for a kill, and was successful, and gained their actions, they would replace all actions that I previously held, whether I had used them or not. In essence, if my kill on SC had gone through, I would gain whatever he had, but lose the kill and the redirect, even though I had never used the redirect.

I'd like to be sure I'm reading this right. elvis, if you were to have vigged a vanilla, would you have become vanilla? (Look at that use of the pluperfect subjunctive!)

If I were to have vigged a vanilla and SUCEEDED, I would have gained all night actions of the vanilla (which are none), and lost all my prior abilities. So, yes, I would have become vanilla.

The loophole, which I did not anticipate, was that if my action does not succeed, I lose the action I tried, but retain the chance for actions I haven't used, as my actions have not been replaced by new.

Basically, I can take on any actions. Personally, I think drake is a genius and vig should always be played this way. Because it removes the chance of the vig targetting a town power role and losing the town power role. Like if I had vigged Seol and succeeded, the doc would be dead, but I would become the new doc. So, vig damage to the town is contained. Quite awesome.

[elvis_knits]

I want Budja to go next, unless anyone has objections.

(And I know SC has objections but I'm not counting that since basically everyone thinks he's scum).

[elvis_knits]

SC is trying to convince us that he's really oblivious to stuff like logic and strategy, but I remember at one point he seemed pretty smart. I think he was the first player to mention "arsonist." I had already figured it out since I could sort out the night actions easier knowing my part in it being the second kill on boxman/hoopla. But how did SC figure it out? Seems like an astute observation, and not fitting with his excuses for vig fishing or his lack of strategy at playing BP.

[elvis_knits]

What is wrong with you people? I've been snowed in all day and nobody is posting here...



I will have to go hug the dead body of SpyreX.

[elvis_knits]

Iecerint,

Chat with me.

Let's look at the Netopalis wagon:

Neto:

boxman (scum),

Sensfan (town),

Iecerint(?), ML (?),

Seol (town), Elvis (town!), mathcam (town)

So, if you and ML are both town, then the Netopalis wagon was all town except for box.

I think this is possible since there was an exodus from Netwagon (SC and Konowa) right before Netclaimed and then a bunch of towns went for the BWCS.

But I think SC is prob an SK. I think he voted boxman early because he wasn't a boxman buddy.

I dunno, I guess I can believe that Konowa tried to save boxman all day until he thought it was impossible, then he switched to boxman, and miracle of miracles Neto claims and a bunch of townies lynch him.

I also think it would be smart for a scum team to not have both buddies trying to save boxman. BUT, the other buddy doesn't want to actually buss him either, hoping the buddy can avoid lynch. So, the other scum votes off both major wagons. Which, you know, was Percy.

I can believe that.

I am still slightly suspicious though since the wagon would be all town except for boxman. I mean, the circumstances make it possible, but it's still a bit irregular.

And Seol did think Percy was town. But Seol also let us lynch the doc, and nobody is infallible.

Thoughts?

[elvis_knits]

Okay, wait.

SC, you're saying that if the scum knew I was going to shoot a town they would not bother to kill me or to block me (even if they could block).

That sounds good.

So if I was NOT blocked.

That speaks to you being town (like you say) or NK immune due to being SK or GF.

Also that would suggest Percy is town. (He could also be NK immune SK or GF, but if he was hoping to absorb the kill them he would have to explain tomorrow WHY he was still alive, and with you already claiming BP, he can't explain it).

So are you arguing that my night result means that you are BP, there is no mafia RB, and that Percy is town also?

If so, who do you think is scum?

You have to be thinking Iecerint and ML, and Budja(Konowa)? Yes?

[elvis_knits]

If I'm choosing, I say Percy next.

Unless someone else really wants to go.

[elvis_knits]

Okay, wait.

SC, you're saying that if the scum knew I was going to shoot a town they would not bother to kill me or to block me (even if they could block).

That sounds good.

So if I was NOT blocked.

That speaks to you being town (like you say) or NK immune due to being SK or GF.

Also that would suggest Percy is town. (He could also be NK immune SK or GF, but if he was hoping to absorb the kill them he would have to explain tomorrow WHY he was still alive, and with you already claiming BP, he can't explain it).

So are you arguing that my night result means that you are BP, there is no mafia RB, and that Percy is town also?

Close. Yes, you should have reason to believe that I am bulletproof, and your explanation that Percy is therefore likely town makes sense to me. Mafia roleblockers are not ruled out, but they have no reason to target you unless Percy is scum. If you were roleblocked, then Percy is fudged.

I do not have reason to believe you are bulletproof. I have reason to believe that you are bulletproof, OR SK, OR GF... or that there is a mafia RB.

And I am ASKING YOU if you are trying to say Percy is town. I'm not telling you I necessarily believe that. I'm trying to figure out what you are saying with your "scum won't kill a vig they think is aimed at town."

I have asked the mod if he can tell me if I was RBed. Some mods do notify players, so I just want to make sure. If he will tell me, I will tell the rest of you.

If so, who do you think is scum?

You have to be thinking Iecerint and ML, and Budja(Konowa)? Yes?

Yes, with Budja most likely being SK of those three.

Why do you think Budja the SK?

[elvis_knits]

OMG...

I haven't read through all the posts made last night yet... quick skim says Iecerint is claiming to be RBed.

But the Mod has informed me that:

I WAS ROLEBLOCKED.

WTF does this mean?

[elvis_knits]

I'm gonna go take my dog for a walk and think about this. I want to lay out all the claims (sort of like Percy did above) but with the claimed actions and implications. I feel like I need to draw a map.

But first impressions are that Percy's claim is very odd given that we already had a redirector die. It seems too complicated to have a redirector and a busdriver in the same game. Plus the fact that I can now redirect makes it even more complicated. I doubt a mod would do that to himself (and us).

Percy's claim to have busdriven myself and spyrex is a good explanation for the night kills both going to spyrex. So, in that sense it has some believability. However, I still think that spyrex could have become a lightning rod, or some other explanation.

But if Percy switched me and Sprex, that means both scum put a NK on me which went to spyrex, and BOTH me and Iecerint were RBed somehow. Or Iecerint is lying scum. (BTW, a rolecop is a traditional scum ability, but if Iecerint is scum we don't have a town cop at all, possible but les likely).

One of the scenarios I am toying with is that Percy is some kind of scum motivator... alcohol being a motivator makes sense, and could explain how one roleblock became two. I don't know how this would work though with the kills... have to think a bit more and map it out.

[elvis_knits]

I'm still planning on doing some sort of map of possible scenarios, but still have got to ask one thing...

WHY would Iecerint claim to be roleblocked if he's scum?

I mean, he would have to know that I was roleblocked, so he's setting up some sort of scenario where one of us is lying or that there were somehow two roleblocks.

And the only way I can figure two roleblocks is if there is a scum motivator and a scum RB, and the motivator doubled the RBer, allowing him to make two RB's. But then I don't see how they oculd also make a kill -- usually you can either kill OR use your other scum power, not both, unless you're the last scum left. And I have reason to believe this game would work that way since when I took over boxman's abilities, I got two abilities but could only use one at a time.

The other scenario I can think of is some type of copycat role, but again, not sure how that would work with two scum left. If both scum are using other abilities, I don't htink they can kill.

This double roleblock is really giving me fits.

I don't know how it's possible.

And namecop is usually a scum role. And think of how drake set the game up. He gave a townie the noun of stethoscope. Which might have caused the scum to think NEto was the doc, which he wasn't!

STILL... NO VOTING FROM ANYONE!

[elvis_knits]

I am

A Mostly Empty Bottle of Jack Daniels

, a two-shot bus driver. Last night I switched SpyreX and elvis_knits, and I've still got one use. I actually could have used both of my shots in one night, but I chose to do nothing N1 and keep one for N3.

I JUST got the joke about "2 shots" and a mostly empty bottle of JD. I'm slow.

Being able to use both shots in one night is really weird.

If this is true, mabe a 2-shot RBer could use both shots in one night as well. Or maybe Percy actually is a 2-shot RBer. Although 2-shot anything (other than vig) is pretty odd.

(Although in this game, things are quite interesting and I think we have to think creatively instead of just dismissing possibilities).

[elvis_knits]

Iecerint, Percy is saying he switched me and spyrex.

[elvis_knits]

The dead:
2 vanilla
1 vanilla*
bomb
doc
Mafia redirector

The living:
Supervig
Bus Driver
Noun Cop
Bulletproof townie
2 vanilla

Last Night actions claimed:
Elvis vig - SC (BLOCKED)
Iecerint cop - Spyrex (Bus Driven and Blocked)
Percy Bus Driver - switch Elvis and spyrex

NK: Spyrex dies through doublekill

I am having a hard time with both Iecerint and Percy.

Problems with Iecerint:
Noun cop - rolecops/namecops are usually scum -- they help the scum find power roles. His role sounds like that. Also, why would he need to investigate a players noun if he is given their allignment? Sort of redundant and useless.
And also, I know I was blocked, and Iecerint is claiming to be blocked the same night. Which seems pretty unlikely and I am really having a hard time figuring out a way for there to be a double roleblock. Best explanation seems to be a 2-shot RBer who could use both in one night (WEIRD, and reminds me of PErcy's role).

Promblem with Percy:
We already had a redirector in the game, which is a similar role, and I am having a hard time believing a redirector and a bus driver are in the same game.

[elvis_knits]

And namecop is usually a scum role. And think of how drake set the game up. He gave a townie the noun of stethoscope. Which might have caused the scum to think NEto was the doc, which he wasn't!

My thoughts exactly. If he was just name-cop, the risk he was taking was calling me town, but it's not like I'm going to turn that down, no matter what.

I was thinking he could be a scum namecop, who investigated you and found out you are "Picasso Guernica."

I am unsure how I feel about this "supercop" role. In a way it fits since I am supervig, but then again, how many super roles can there be in one game?

Percy as 2 shots of whiskey as multi-RB is plausible. His caveat of "use multiple in one night" works really nicely given both RBs, assuming Iec & elvis both town.

I think scum tend to be truthful about as much as possible, sort of like mixing truth in with the lies. So Percy saying his 2-shot ability could be used both in one night makes me think a RB could be used 2 in one night, and that maybe he told the truth about everything except that he's a scum RBer and not a town busdriver.

If PErcy's not a busdriver, that means that both scum targetted spyrex (think he was the other party), which is a coincidence, or that spyrex became a lightning rod.

Map is still in progress.

[elvis_knits]

My redirect works like this:

I choose a player and direct that player's nightchoice to whoever I want.

SO I am really picking two people. One person to direct their action, and the player I want the action to go toward.

[elvis_knits]

ML is town unless he is GFscum. Remote.

Well, he could be GF or maybe even SK (technically) and you'd still get that result, right?

Why is this possibility remote to you?