Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[MacavityLock]

I know my noun, my noun is known, and that noun shall be my role.

I hereby confirm.

[MacavityLock]

Also, note to all, I will be V/LA this weekend for my wedding.

What? Mafia isn't as important as lifelong happiness? Weaksauce.

(Read as: Congratulations!)

[MacavityLock]

I agree with Iec.

Vote: Parh

[MacavityLock]

Mac, why Parhelic over mathcam?

This is a good question! I will answer it when more people wagon Parh.

I deny Elvis's accusation.

[MacavityLock]

Unvote.

I originally chose to vote Parh over mathcam (both of whom were the slow confirmers) because I had recently played in a game with Parh, and thought that I could get more out of pressuring him. Other stuff has happened thus far though.

Iec and Neto feel off to me for some reason.

elvis, what are you claiming about BM in the bit SC quoted?

It reads as if you believe that town-BM is slyly discrediting your wagon on scum-SF.

That doesn't make much sense to me.

Iec, can you explain what you mean by the sentence I italicized? I don't really understand it.

I'd love to hear from Boxman with regards to all the discussion around his wagon.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry for double-post, failed to see Neto's on preview.

That being said, I really think we need to hear from Boxman a bit more before continuing - he's at 3 votes and we're not even past page 4.

Why is 3 votes at page 4 an issue? Is 3 votes a large amount? (Also, I think that with mathcam's, it's actually 4 votes on Boxman.)

[MacavityLock]

And triple-post.

@mod

, I will be LA until Nov 12. I should be around enough to post, but not entirely sure.

[MacavityLock]

Macavity: It's not dangerously close to a lynch, but it's more than I'd like on such a weak tell.

Why?

Vote Count V

Boxman:

4 (mathcam, SensFan, Seol, StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan:

3 (Konowa, elvis_knits, Netopalis)

Parhelic

: 1 (Iecerint)

Netopalis:

1 (Boxman)

Not Voting:

(MacavityLock, Parhelic, Percy)

Deadline:

Friday November 27th, 12:00 PM EST

[MacavityLock]

I was already thinking I didn't like how ML posted and unvoted without revoting.

Well, I am LA at the moment. I think it's somewhere between counter-productive and anti-town to leave a vote down when I'm V/LA and don't yet have a good read on the game. I'll actually try to be useful at the end of this week.

[MacavityLock]

Hey-o! I'm around and will get back to reading.

[MacavityLock]

Notes pretty much as I read.

I'd thought that the first "Confirm" was from some player other than SF and that MC was the first to slip up/joke about it, so I was prodding in that direction to see what would come up. As it is, he ignored me, so I guess it wasn't very effective. In any event, my current understanding that SF had already trivialized elvis's thread before that makes MC's perceived transgression all the more innocuous.

This feels really weasel-y to me.

Honestly, I really hate D1...it doesn't make a great deal of sense to me.

The famed I-have-no-idea-what-we're-doing tell.

Well, I was watching Boxman's sig, and it didn't include this game until he posted on here, which lends credibility to the "Forgot about the game" thing.

Man, is Neto paying real close attention to Boxman. (I see that Seol made this point later.)

IMO neto's reaction gets scummy mostly if boxman is scum.

If boxman is town, a scumNeto would probably not be trying to slow the wagon. I mean, maybe to earn town cred, or maybe because he thinks he would say that as town. But most of the time, if neto is scum and boxman is town, neto is not going to try to slow the boxman wagon. Right? I think so.

IF Box==Town AND Neto==Scum THEN Elvis==Scum.

And

But do you think Neto is could be scum if boxman is town?

Yes, I could see town-cred points as a motivation. Everyone, including Neto, knows Box wasn't going to get lynched on that one post alone. I wouldn't say that this scenario is likely, but it's possible.

Theory tangent, I personally do not like trying to match people together on D1. I find that I scumhunt better if I pursue the people I find the scummiest D1. After flips is when you will see me trying to connect the dots, so to speak.

I so rarely do too, but damn there are obvious connections in this game.

MacavityLock has been on V/LA, but his posts really do show a willingness to go along with whatever everybody else has said. I'm willing to remove this suspicion later and cut him some slack due to the status, but I think it definitely should be noted.

Bwah ha ha! This is hilarious. The reason? Before I disappeared, I was at least somewhat original. As far as I can tell, the only people to point at Iec by my iso post 4 were Percy and me. And in my isos 5 and 7, I was the

first

to question Neto on why the moderately small Box-wagon caused such alarms for him. That of course snowballed into the big Neto interrogation, so a cursory glance back might show me as "go[ing] along with what everybody else has said". But any actual analysis would easily prove this wrong. Seriously Neto, I may be guilty of being absent this game so far due to my LA, but unoriginality is not one of my sins.

This of course causes me to question why he has me in his sights in the first place, which of course leads to shades of OMGUS. By Neto's big player analysis post 144, had I provided substantially more, less, or different than either Percy or Konowa? If not, why are the 3 of us placed into 3 different sections of his scumlist? (Konowa: Neutral, Percy: Inactive, Me: Scum) If so, what was that difference? (Hint: I questioned Neto.)

The topic now is Boxman's continued absense. He has no excuse and he's a perfectly valid lynch. But I worry that we'd be passing up someone who is more clearly scum in my mind. I don't think that Elvis's point that Neto can't be scum if Box is town is valid, so I see no reason to lynch Box first.

Vote: Neto

[MacavityLock]

By Neto's big player analysis post 144, had I provided substantially more, less, or different than either Percy or Konowa? If not, why are the 3 of us placed into 3 different sections of his scumlist? (Konowa: Neutral, Percy: Inactive, Me: Scum) If so, what was that difference? (Hint: I questioned Neto.)

On a closer read, this is actually wrong. Both Konowa and I had questioned Neto by 144. (Percy had as well, but in a more limited fashion.) Now, I have no idea what the difference is in our posts was that caused him to put the 3 of us in different sections. So, less of his OMGUS, and more of my OMGUS actually.

[MacavityLock]

SC looks pretty bad in light of Box/Hoopla's flip, in large part due to

Unvote: Boxman

and demote him to a

Major HoS
Vote: Netopalis

Vote: SC

while I do some more digging.

ML is also a possble scum though. Neto was the only person ML voted all day after his random vote. I played with ML recently in Second String Muppets Mini. We were scum there and he kept his vote on one person the whole first day before getting vigged at night. I'm thinking this might be a scumtell for him, picking one suspect and sticking with it.

So, I knew I tend to do this, but I didn't realize just how often. I just meta'd myself, and it turns out that this is just a me-tell, especially Day 1. Elvis already mentioned this for the Muppets game where I was scum.

Last 3 completed games where I was town:
/in-vitational 3 - Stayed on Kublai all of Day 1.
Empire at War - Stayed on Sajin all of Day 1.
Newbie 801 - Stayed on lrd all of Day 1.

[MacavityLock]

One important note about voting Neto "all day". While Neto was my only serious vote yesterday, I was LA for a large portion of time, and my Neto vote didn't come until page 12. By that time, I had in front of me: (a) active person who has made what I considered scumtells and (b) inactive person who made a couple posts that I considered somewhere between scummy and lazy, I'll always vote (a).

The SC quote I pulled was scummy less because he flipped from Box to Neto, it was more the "Major HOS" he left on Box. I cannot for the life of me read Box's posts as so scummy that they deserve that signifier.

Re: Iec. My gut had him on the scummy side from Day 1, and he's someone I'll be reading in depth to examine connections. No verdict as yet.

[MacavityLock]

Up until the "Major HoS" from yesterday, your case on Boxman consisted of

Vote: Boxman

for stating the obvious. Why sit on the sidelines when there's lot of opportunity to start the ball rolling?

Through the rest of the day, the only other times you mentioned Boxman were

In other news, Boxman's blatant lurking is getting on my nerves.

Vote: Boxman

You are done avoiding this game like the plague. Claim or die.

And your Boxman case was more solid?

I also felt my Boxman case was more solid.

What case?

(P.S.

@mod, I'm currently voting StrangerCoug.

)

Right you are. In my defense you used the second-shortest possible abbreviation. Fixed above.

- Mod

[MacavityLock]

OK, did a closer read of Iec and Konowa. Some stuff:

Konowa's call out of

Barring interesting new analysis, I'll vote for Boxman once Parhelic's replacement has had a chance to chime in.

is very good, caught the same thing on my re-read. Iec's response is

Konowa -- I didn't switch my vote to BM because Neto claimed before I could get BK to answer my question. The question was important because a vote for Neto (which is what BK appeared to be leaning toward) wouldn't follow if Neto was only scummy with BM, but it looked like BK's read on Neto was based mostly on his BM defense. If Neto had held off a little longer, I may well have switched votes, especially considering BM's continued absence.

This seems to be answering a different question. How does BK's answer affect your reads of either Box or Neto?

Generally, I'm okay with Konowa. I can definitely see where Elvis is coming from, but not sure I agree with it. One question though:

My entire reasoning for thinking he was scum was based on how he reacted to Boxman's wagon. I could not see town reacting to a wagon like that. I have played in a game recently, sometime this summer, where we caught scum for doing something like that, i.e. over-reacting to a early wagon.

My entire attack on Net was to pressure him and see what information I could get out of him.

However, I was not going to let him know that. Pressure stops being pressure when you call it what it is.

Were you or were you not willing to lynch Neto/be a part of his lynch?

You answered your own question there, Mac. Boxman did not want to participate and elected to waste our time. Somebody tell me Boxman's replacing out was not opportunistic.

No, I don't think I did answer my own question. My point was you were very sure (or at least say that you were very sure) that Boxman was scum, and yet you had no case to back it up. That means more info than a non-informational PR townie would have.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry, was in the air yesterday, heading back east for Thanksgiving break. Will catch up on the last few pages.

I see that SC has still failed to address my concerns about him.

[MacavityLock]

OK, now that SC has provided his entire "case", there's no point in holding this back any more. Hey everybody, remember this?

Vote: MacavityLock

for being my scumbuddy in Mini 698.

Totally true, I was SC's scumbuddy in Mini 698. LlamaFluff was our 3rd partner. Hey SC, remember this? The post that should've have sunk us entirely in Mini 698.

So, SC gave a "Major HOS" to a scumbuddy in Mini 698, and by the way poked me about said game earlier. In this game, he gives a "Major HOS" to scum.

Now, I did do a meta of SC, and both HoS's and Major HoS's are in both his scum and town play. However, it certainly seems to me that his trigger finger on these is pretty itchy when scum. SC, how did/do you know that Box was being opportunistic and not lazy? Why is scum more likely than town to drop out in his situation? A town player has just about as much work to do as a scum player in his situation.

[MacavityLock]

Waiting for mod & new votecount before even considering discussing Spyrex's vote(s).

@SC... Piggybacking onto Seol's case was lazy BS. As you can see, Seol himself doesn't even consider it a case. So please explain to me why you are voting me.

Totally agree. Piggybacking on a non-case.

I'd very much like to hear more from Percy, and Seol's fresh perspective on SC and me when he gets to it.

Will be LA for the next 2 days. Back on Wednesday.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I'm back for the moment. (A Turkey & Football day, and subsequent flight back home will mean some quiet spots over the next week, as I'm sure you'll understand.)

I have a theory about maf PRs, but I'd rather not talk about it other than to say that it leads to the conclusion that SpyreX probably isn't maf. I have no idea if he's SK.

SpyreX, I would like to join others in saying that I don't understand why you're clearing me and Iec from the Neto-wagon. Does this still hold for you?

SpyreX's catch of the following contradiction is a good one:

I think Boxman may be scum, but that the case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum.

I don't think I did any work whatsoever in tying those two players together, and my response to SC - that Boxman dying last night saved us a lot of bother today - is relevant here.

Percy, your response?

Those on the wagon were arguing that Boxman and Neto were tied together - they were both scum.

I was disputing this

and saying that if those who said it thought the argument was strong enough, they would be voting to lynch Boxman first.

The fact that people were trying to lynch Neto first was a product of (1) their alignments being linked and (2) attention being shifted off Boxman.

I didn't like either of these things.

Who exactly on their wagons did this apply to?

Iec looks like he's putting on a Jedi mind trick master class today of getting people to look elsewhere, like he's managing to point at everybody, but very quietly, happily picking away. A lot of this is gut, but it really seems like he's playing like I do when I'm scum.

I disagree with Seol quite a bit, but it seems like a lot it could be theory based. I would love some cites (previous games, whatever) for

After one vanilla claim we lynch, we don't press for another claim.

SC, can you discuss why you weren't comfortable with Neto's claim?

[MacavityLock]

SpyreX, I would like to join others in saying that I don't understand why you're clearing me and Iec from the Neto-wagon. Does this still hold for you?

Let me amend this. I

understand

why you cleared us, as you have explained that it's based on the fact we weren't part of the wagon switch post-claim. I don't really agree with it though. I am wondering if this still holds for you.

I think Percy already addressed that disconnect, but he mostly just said that there wasn't a disconnect.

He addressed a different disconnect, not the one that SpyreX pointed out, and jumped out at me too.

[MacavityLock]

I don't think we can assume Spyrex is totally right about that -- that there was one scum on Neto post claim, and one scum off neto at day's end.

Primary reason is that is only two scum, and there are likely two mafia and an SK. So even if he was right, we would still need another.

I think that his analysis should be used as a tool and jumping off point, not as a complete black-and-white type of thing.

In no way am I assuming that SpyreX is right. I want to know whether or not he is sticking with the maf bucketing that he proposed earlier.

Iec, I have no idea what you're talking about. I am requesting a response from Percy as regards the contradiction between the two quotes that I posted, from his iso 5 and iso 11. This is a contradiction that SpyreX brought up too, and Percy has not yet addressed.

[MacavityLock]

The 3rd quote of yours IS Percy's response to the contradiction between the points in his iso 5 and 11. Re-check the SX quote that that 3rd quote is responding to in his iso 13.

No, you're still wrong. The contradiction I point out has not been addressed. Now stop answering for Percy.

Vote Count X

X

X

StrangerCoug:

3 (Konowa, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

Seol:

3 (elvis_knits, SpyreX)

SpyreX:

2 (Percy, Seol)

elvis_knits:

1 (StrangerCoug)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[MacavityLock]

No, you're still wrong. The contradiction I point out has not been addressed. Now stop answering for Percy.

[MacavityLock]

Who exactly on their wagons did this apply to?

It was the main argument that most of the wagoners used to justify their vote - that Boxman had done something terribly scummy, and yet Neto had defended him! If you accept this argument, the necessary conclusion is that they are scum together.

Names please. See how I wrote "Who exactly" up there?

Also, remember this?

IF Box==Town AND Neto==Scum THEN Elvis==Scum.

You did state that you didn't buy the "Boxman should go first" argument first raised by elvis, though, which probably explains the oversimplification here.

Yeah, does not apply, and by the way doesn't even connect Box's and Neto's alignments in any way.

I don't think he's criticizing you for linking alignments per se. He's arguing that you claimed you hadn't linked alignments (hadn't "done any work tying those two together") whereas you made the "Netoscum iff Boxscum" argument, which constitutes linking.

Yay! You figured it out! Yes, this is what I meant. Percy, how do you reconcile this?

[MacavityLock]

That's an old argument; it's the same one that SX was making.

Except that there's now Day 1 evidence that Percy was linking. This was not brought up previously, and he hasn't answered for it.

[MacavityLock]

SC, can you discuss why you weren't comfortable with Neto's claim?

I connected "stethoscope" with "doctor", not "vanilla townie". I also had yet to pay any attention to the mod saying that names might not make sense given roles.

That's it? Very simply, there were two possibilities:
a) Neto was "stethescope" VT
b) Neto was scum who was too stupid to come up with a fake-claim that looked more vanilla than town PR

As far as I can tell, you're saying that the

only

problem you had with his claim was that (b) was a possibility. I'm loving my vote.

[MacavityLock]

Once Neto had claimed role and noun, if he was lying, than he failed to come up with a fake-claim noun that looked vanilla. As there are approximately infinity nouns that he could have come up with, to me it seems that the likelihood of this is very low. As you just said that this was your only problem with Neto's noun claim, I think your discomfort with the claim was manufactured.

[MacavityLock]

The average person doesn't have a stethoscope laying around—that's something people in the medical profession are more likely to have on them. I think it's reasonable to think the way I did given I failed to read the mod note about claims.

SC, when Neto claimed I thought that too. Then I thought to myself "Why would scum fake-claim stethescope vanilla? There is literally no incentive to do that." Thus the noun claim itself immediately became null, and with barely a cycle off my thought process. Therefore, I could see that being an issue based upon the most cursory view (i.e. scum looking for anything to knock down), but with one ounce of effort should immediately resolve itself.

Preview edit: Neto being a possible mafia doc has no bearing on this argument.

[MacavityLock]

I can see that your argument is not that linking alignments is bad, but that linking alignments and claiming you didn't is bad. I did neither.

Yes, you did. Let me just copy the quotes directly.

I think Boxman may be scum, but that the case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum.

I don't think I did any work whatsoever in tying those two players together, and my response to SC - that Boxman dying last night saved us a lot of bother today - is relevant here.

Explain how your iso 5

doesn't

link Neto and Box's alignments.

[MacavityLock]

I'm about to head to bed, but quickly: "the case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum" is absolutely equivalent to "IF Box==Town THEN Neto==Town".

[MacavityLock]

My top 3 are:
1) SC
2T) Percy, Iec.

Iec is getting more twisty with every post, but it's still a lot of gut. Percy's answer re: linking doesn't completely satisfy me, but it's about the towniest I could expect from him. I likely won't be shifting my vote to him.

Need more data from Seol and Konowa.

P.S. Re: SC's vote on me, note the potential chainsaw action as regards Percy.

[MacavityLock]

I think people are drastically misinterpreting SpyreX's post.

[MacavityLock]

I think people are drastically misinterpreting SpyreX's post.

What do you think he was saying?

I don't like answering for other people, so I won't. I do think it's very important for people to re-read that post carefully. I think there are 2 things in there that are being read wrong.

[MacavityLock]

Flying now. Talk to you (real life) tomorrow.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I very much like Percy's 692. All sorts of good stuff in there. One thing Percy picks up on is SC's vote on me, based solely on my attack on Percy. Re: the whole linking thing, my entire attack was overstated, and I was fully aware of it at the time. I knew that, as Percy said 'Put simply, "the case on Netopalis is pretty dead" != "Netopalis is Town".' However, it's really not hard to make that leap, and I needed to get Percy's response. SC, is my questioning/attacking of Percy on this really the scummiest thing that's happened all game?

----

My case on SC is as follows:
The Major HoS on Box. I have shown an instance where SC put a Major HoS on a scumbuddy for what amounts to little reason, for what I assume to be distancing purposes. I think he did the same thing here, due to the fact that I can't read anything in Box's play or SC's Day 1 "case" on Box that deserves such a major signal from SC. (Note that FoS's, HoS's, etc exist for signaling only, which is different from the variety of ways [pressure, signaling, actually lynching] votes can be used.)

There's the issue of piggybacking on Seol's non-case on Elvis.

My iso 26-28 detail why I think that SC's discomfort with Neto's claim was manufactured.

SC's vote on me doesn't make a ton of sense, as I don't think my interpretation of Percy's linking thing was much of a stretch. I also think it's rather interesting that his vote came just 2 days after the following:

Seol is still town right now. His attack on you is sensible, and I think he's dealing with my argument with elvis_knits quite well. Iecerint has improved to a neutral as he's explained away my biggest concern about him to my satisfaction, and MacavityLock is town.

Again, was my attack on Percy so scummy as to push you from "is town" to voting me?

----

Seol, I'm sure it got lost in the shuffle, but I'd appreciate a response to

I disagree with Seol quite a bit, but it seems like a lot it could be theory based. I would love some cites (previous games, whatever) for

After one vanilla claim we lynch, we don't press for another claim.

----

Very often, there's a bit more "openness" in twilight than there is during the day. I want to dig into that faux-twilight period after SpyreX's Seol vote to see if there's anything enlightening there, because it really feels like there should be.

[MacavityLock]

I'm having a hard time with him, to be honest. I don't think he's done too much that's been overtly scummy, but as I said before, I find myself disagreeing with a lot of what he's saying, but his explanations seem reasonable. I do think your callout of his flip as regards SC is a good one, and definitely want to hear his answer on that, as well as some theory cites as I requested.

I am not opposed to his lynch at this time.

----

@mod,

I know you're likely to be strict on this, but I'd like to formally request a deadline extension due to the holiday and Konowa's extended absence.

[MacavityLock]

Holy crap, deadline extension simul-post.

To be sure everything's clear, my 709 refers to

ML, what is your opinion of Seol?

[MacavityLock]

I don't usually like doing full lists, as I generally think it helps scum more than town (NK-targets, etc.), but I think I've made my town reads pretty obvious at this point, so, sure, why not. This list is based on maf/not maf, as like SpyreX, I have a hard time finding SK tells.

Town-leaning:
SpyreX - Not maf.
Elvis - Doing a very good job of convincing me she's not maf, both in her arguments and responses to claims, etc.
Konowa - My 3rd town read right now, in that I agree with a lot of his suspicions. Of course, he hasn't been around enough to really know. (Hope everything works out, Konowa!)

Scum-leaning:
Percy - Has made what I believe to be contradictions, nor do I like the Iec vote in Day 1, but he explained them well. Has been scumhunting and putting in effort.
Seol - As stated before, many disagreements that I can't tell if they're theory-based or he's just scum.
Iec - It's killing me that I can't make a case here. His answering/explaining for everybody really irks me, in that it lets people off the hook.

Scum:
SC - C'mon people, he's right there.

[MacavityLock]

I think you're putting too much faith in the post-claim jump. Based solely on the jump, Elvis looks by far the worst. Seol has provided reasonable theory for his vote (which I still want cites for, by the way). And mathcam flipped town. Reading over it again now, Elvis's vote easily looks the most "convenient". But I am really not at all seeing her as scum.

This is to say that I think there's a solid possibility that all 3 on the jump are town, and your scum-bucketing is wrong.

[MacavityLock]

I should have added "Pending Seol's theory cites" to my 716.

[MacavityLock]

Way to backtrack. You said that I have an itchy trigger finger when it comes to throwing FoS's and the like as scum, and while the example deserves notice, I threw a major HoS on Boxman in the same sentence I unvoted him. It would make more sense for you to attack my vote on Boxman directly if you think my case on him is weak.

Absolutely not. I don't think I've ever attacked your Boxman vote, because I don't have a problem with it. There's a big difference between votes and HoS's and why people would use them. Your Boxman vote was originally from page 2 or something, and you stuck with it for a while. That happens all the time, and I don't care about it. It's absolutely the Major HoS after unvoting that bothers me.

Since when do reads have to be rock solid? You misrepresented Percy, which didn't warrant my keeping my town read on you.

Was my misrep really a reach? If so, was it really the scummiest thing that's happened in this game?

[MacavityLock]

You'd have a case if I were a double voter. I'm not, however, so you're attacking me for the Major HoS which

YOU

said, and I remember agreeing, was null coming out of me.

It's about

why

you would play the HoS, not that you did it at all. Yes, you use HoS's etc. in both your town and scum play, but that's not the point.

If your misrepresentation was not a reach, then tell me how Boxman being town would have cleared Netopalis.

Wow, you have entirely missed the thread on this one. If I misrep'ed anything, it had to do with whether or not

Percy

was doing any linking on Day 1. (I still think my complaint was reasonable, though certainly not bulletproof.)

[MacavityLock]

You'd have a case if I were a double voter. I'm not, however, so you're attacking me for the Major HoS which

YOU

said, and I remember agreeing, was null coming out of me.

It's about

why

you would play the HoS, not that you did it at all. Yes, you use HoS's etc. in both your town and scum play, but that's not the point.

By saying you'd have a case if I were a double voter, I am implying that I still had Netopalis pretty high up there in my scum list. I

STILL

don't see the case on Netopalis.

Huh?

If your misrepresentation was not a reach, then tell me how Boxman being town would have cleared Netopalis.

Wow, you have entirely missed the thread on this one. If I misrep'ed anything, it had to do with whether or not

Percy

was doing any linking on Day 1. (I still think my complaint was reasonable, though certainly not bulletproof.)

You can do me a big favor and give me an actual answer. I told you to tell me how Boxman being town would clear Netopalis if you are going to deny that you misrepresented Percy. Don't do it and I'm taking back my condemning Seol.

I never said anything about Box=Town->Neto=Town. I questioned whether or not Percy did and then claimed he didn't. So, again, I say huh?

[MacavityLock]

In before lock.

Percy & SC would make a good looking scumteam. During faux-twilight:

This hammer vote of SpyreX's is saturated scumminess, and I think he's the scumteam with SC.

[MacavityLock]

I did not see your post until just now, elvis, as I was running off to class.

I call bullshit on SC's claim. Kevlar for bulletproof is just too damn convenient, especially given stethoscope!=doc.

As for the rest, give me a minute to think.

[MacavityLock]

Elvis, do

not

consider not shooting tonight. Shooting SC is a dominant strategy over not shooting. If he was lying, hey, we hit scum. If he's telling the truth, hey, it's like you never shot.

[MacavityLock]

lol, super-fast reply once I called him out!

Yes, hilarious. I have a 9:30-11 class, and then got to a computer as fast as possible.

I'm still trying to figure out if there should be a difference in your strategy based on what Seol flips.

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Elvis, who did you vig Night 1?

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OK, ran the numbers only (not considering pointing at who elvis should vig). In all cases, worst case scenario means that all scum kills hit town.
If Seol is SK: We will likely be left in either a 4/2 or a 5/1 situation before vig. Due to odd/even arguments, I think vigging someone is worthwhile, your choice as to who.
If Seol is maf: There may still be 2 killing factions out there, or they may not. Worst case scenario leads to either 3/1/1 (if originally 3 maf) or 5/1 (if originally 2 maf) before vig. Unsure whether vigging someone other than SC is worthwhile.
If Seol is town: Worst case scenario puts us either in 2/2/1 or 3/1/1 before vig. 2/2/1 is already a loss and 3/1/1 is too risky. Do not vig someone other than SC.

My conclusion:
Seol-SK: Vig whoever you want.
Seol-maf: Not sure, but at the very least Vig SC.
Seol-town: Vig SC.

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The thing about my role is that if my action is not completed I will lose it. So if I target a bulletproof, or an NK immune SK or a NK immune GF, I will turn vanilla. Which is not horrible, but I would like to kill scum.

And simul-post with this crap. Dammit, elvis, why you gots to be throwing this wrench in my awesome plan?

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Honestly, I think we have to assume that elvis will be dead soon, and I'd rather have her fully utilized than avoid the risk of her turning vanilla. I stand by my 778.

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Iec, you shouldn't be clearing yourself, and you shouldn't be clearing me. I'm glad you think I'm town, but we need to be far more careful than that today.

We absolutely need to treat this as LYLO. If we started with 3 maf, 1 SK, then we're 3/2/1 right now. If we lynch the SK, we need elvis's redirect to be perfect, otherwise it means town loses. Awkward. If we lynch maf, we've got potential for cross-kills, hopefully boosted by elvis's redirect.

If however, we started with 2 maf, 1 SK, then we're 4/1/1. Maf and SK lynching are equivalent in this circumstance. A mislynch does not guarantee a town loss either, but it would rely on cross-kills to get to a potential town win.

So, I guess we've got to go after maf. And I think a mass-claim is probably a good way to go. Popcorn, elvis chooses next to claim?

----

Elvis, I really want you to dig in to your role PM and ask mod whatever questions you need to to figure out why you still have a redirect ability. Based on the way you describe it, it shouldn't matter how your kill was stopped; the way I'm reading it, both a block and a protect (either doc or bulletproof) would cause you to go vanilla. Figure it out, because it doesn't make sense.

----

I also think Elvis is right in that we should look into why SpyreX was double-killed. Here's a hypothesis:
Kill 1) SC knows that he's bulletproof, but either no one else does (SK), or his maf-buddy does. Therefore, his scum faction knows that elvis will become vanilla. Given that SpyreX is "evolving townie", he's more dangerous than vanilla-elvis. SC's faction kills SpyreX.
Kill 2) Other scum faction has a roleblocking ability, and they plan to block Elvis last night. They know that she will become vanilla, and same SpyreX-kill reasons apply.

Conclusion: As a direct result of the above, it is likely that SC is some sort of scum, and that the scum faction that doesn't include him has a roleblocker. I think the most likely case is that SC is NK-immune SK, and that there is a maf faction with two players remaining, one who killed SpyreX, and one who roleblocked elvis.

----

We've got quite a bit of work to do.

Do not vote right now!

FoS or whatever if you have to. As much as I think SC is scum, we may not want to lynch him today. Dammit all.

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But if there is a mafia RB, then SC doesn't need to be NK-immune SK. We only need to have a mafia RB -OR- a nk-immune SK for my night result to happen.

True, but there also is probably a reason that SpyreX pulled all kills, other than just random luck. Lightning rod-ing is possible, but that's pretty uncommon I'd imagine (don't think I've ever seen one), though this game has been funky.

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Popcorn, elvis chooses next to claim?

I want one of percy/budja to go first. Then Iecerint. I want ML to go last. I know I can't just set the whole order, but that is what I would do if I had my wish.

Screw it. elvis, set up your preferred whole order. Let's see how people respond to that. Don't forget to include SC, just in case he has anything more to add to his BP claim.

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Or, if you prefer, choose who goes next after each claim, elvis. That way, scum can't be sure who's going next. Yeah, I like that. One by one, each claim directed by elvis.

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At one point, he specifically told me that if I targetted someone for a kill, and was successful, and gained their actions, they would replace all actions that I previously held, whether I had used them or not. In essence, if my kill on SC had gone through, I would gain whatever he had, but lose the kill and the redirect, even though I had never used the redirect.

I'd like to be sure I'm reading this right. elvis, if you were to have vigged a vanilla, would you have become vanilla? (Look at that use of the pluperfect subjunctive!)

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pluperfect subjunctive!

*grammargasm* loquerisne linguam latinam?

No, I don't speak Latin. I just had very good English teachers, and apparently remember their lessons from 12 years ago.

Much as I'd love to talk about certain things, I'm going to wait for all claims. I think the claim order is probably locked in to Percy, Iec, me, unless anyone has serious objections.

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I need to dig in to both the ramifications of both Percy's and Iec's claims, but for now:

I am Picasso's Guernica, thus I will gladly confirm Iec as noun-cop. I agree that it's fishy that Iec wanted to claim before me. That is, he preferred confirming himself rather than potentially calling me out had I fake-claimed. Strange.

I am vanilla.

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Your consistent clearing of me was pretty blatant, and once you made it a requirement that you claim before me, I was pretty sure that you were either a vanilla-cop, a noun-cop, or somesuch.

Hey guys, by the way, don't forget that Hoopla was a Redirector. So, Percy's claiming that there are multiple swapping-type roles in a 12 person game? Dubious.

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[quote="I, after discussing SX's claim about Seol's "masterstroke" against him,"]On the subject of masterstrokes, I'm looking forward to an artful return post from ML tomorrow.

I agree with ML's post. This might end up like a genocide, but there's hope.

Here they were. I'm trying to get an idea of whether they were too much or too little. Maybe they were too little if you didn't notice them. [/quote]Ha! I'm a fucking idiot for missing those. They seemed clearly out of place as I was reading, but I didn't make the connection.

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And namecop is usually a scum role. And think of how drake set the game up. He gave a townie the noun of stethoscope. Which might have caused the scum to think NEto was the doc, which he wasn't!

My thoughts exactly. If he was just name-cop, the risk he was taking was calling me town, but it's not like I'm going to turn that down, no matter what.

Percy as 2 shots of whiskey as multi-RB is plausible. His caveat of "use multiple in one night" works really nicely given both RBs, assuming Iec & elvis both town.

But of course, there are a crap-load of possibilities. I think I'm with elvis, and need to draw a map.

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It's important to note that I'm not just a namecop. I'm vanilla-cop+flavorcop. I receive 2 independent pieces of information about a player I investigate.

What do you mean when you say vanilla-cop?

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No. When I said "vanilla-cop", I meant that you were a cop who found out whether or not your target was vanilla. What you're saying is that you're also just a regular alignment-cop. It's two different things.

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elvis, how exactly does your redirect work? Is it a bus-drive, or something slightly different?

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As Iec has cleared me, I can only be scum if he is scum.

If both Iec and elvis are telling the truth about being RBed last night, it definitely implicates Percy, as Percy was aware of action-doubling before the 2nd "I was RBed" claim came out. It's not definite, but highly likely that he modified his ability just a little bit. I would also like to hear his explanation of how we have busdrivers and redirectors in the same game.

Iec, given that you had breadcrumbed my noun pretty substantially in Day 2, it's even stranger that you wanted me to claim first. A possible order of events: I claim. You claim with my noun, thus confirming both my alignment and your noun-copping ability (as you could point out your breadcrumbs and how they confirmed or countered my claim). Instead, you chose to let me off the hook: By going first, you made me aware that I couldn't fake-claim a noun.

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As I've stated, you could be mafia GF without me. But that is probably remote enough to ignore. I won't be too upset with myself if I lose due to an unlucky target choice N1.

Yup, you're right. My bad.

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Percy & Budja, did you read my post 797 at the beginning of the day?

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I am also not ready to vote.

I do have some ideas of how to do the redirect, but I want to wait until Percy and Bud answer my 894.

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OK, thanks for your honesty, Budja. The reason I asked is specifically about the first part of my 797, where it discusses why we should consider not lynching SC-SK today and going after maf. Now that I know that Percy read it (via his addressing the SpyreX double-kill discussion later in that post), I have to ask: Percy, your 815 includes the following:

I am willing to claim whenever elvis wants me to. I don't buy SC's claim (bulletproof townie in a game with a bomb? No attempt to draw the NK? His noun matching his power perfectly? This is a scum fakeclaim, guys), his hammer of Seol is scummy as hell, and I think he should be lynched as soon as we're done claiming, barring some massive inconsistency in the claims.

So, are you maf looking for an easy win by lynching SC-SK?

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I really need to hear from Percy before going much further. I'm overwhelmed myself, which is why I'm going so slow with this.

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2 important things to note that may not have been brought up yet:
1) Now that elvis has claimed that she was RBed last night, we don't know whether or not SC is actually bulletproof.
2) If Percy is lying about his busdrive ability, his opposite scum faction is aware that he is lying. (If Percy is lying, then both factions targeted SpyreX with their respective kills last night.)

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elvis&ML -- Remind me of why SC is the SK and not Budja? It's the bulletproof claim + Percy's behavior toward him today, right? Anything else? I remember being quite convinced.

From my perspective, it's mostly the BP claim. However, before that I'd been pretty solid in my SC & Percy as maf-buddies read. Now that SC may no longer be BP (by nature of the elvis-RB), I'm re-having second thoughts.

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Percy, your 815 includes the following:

I am willing to claim whenever elvis wants me to. I don't buy SC's claim (bulletproof townie in a game with a bomb? No attempt to draw the NK? His noun matching his power perfectly? This is a scum fakeclaim, guys), his hammer of Seol is scummy as hell, and I think he should be lynched as soon as we're done claiming, barring some massive inconsistency in the claims.

So, are you maf looking for an easy win by lynching SC-SK?

No.

I was looking for something more, like why you didn't acknowledge my point about reasons we need to specifically target our lynch today.

However, before that I'd been pretty solid in my SC & Percy as maf-buddies read.

Is this from your read of SC's "potential chainsaw" (though iirc you thought my response to that event was pretty town) and my linking SpyreX and SC in twilight because I didn't like SpyreX's hammer (I thought they were both scum and SpyreX had been covering pretty hard for SC)? If there's more, I can't see it.

It has to do with the chainsaw, your faux-twilight post, and the way both of you acted with regards to Iec.

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Percy's lack of response is irritating. I kind of agree that lynching Percy is the right way to go at this point.

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All right, I'd like to see if someone wants to counter-SK-claim Percy.

Otherwise, this information will be analyzed tomorrow morning (RL).

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Percy, who did you RB on night 1?

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You clarify your other post you started the game with 5 shots, not six like you say above.

I'm having a little problem with this error, since the number of shots you have left makes a big difference in what you can and cannot do. You say that with one shot left you'll be nk immune.

It would not surprise me if he tried to leave 1 shot extra so as to stay NK-immune. That's one plausible reason he would "help" the town.

I still want to hear from SC and Iec.

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I don't think I understand part of Percy's claim. Is he NK-proof so long as he has shots? If that's the case, that doesn't jive with him blocking elvis to prevent an N2 vig on him.

This is actually a good point. If 1 shot is equivalent to 1 NK-immunity, why would he want to waste the RB? According to his claim, if Percy gets vigged, he loses 1 shot but lives, but if he doesn't get vigged (SC gets vigged) he doesn't lose the shot. Seems like there's no point to RBing elvis in this situation.

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So, this suggests that Percy is either not NK-immune (a "shot" doesn't protect him), and/or he was trying to save SC.

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MIGHT THAT MAKE SOMEONE THINK MATHCAM WAS THE DOC???

I am pretty sure mathcam was killed because the SK suspected he was the real doc. And I am pretty sure Percy is not the SK.

I'm not sure how this follows. I mean, I understand the point about why people might have thought that mathcam was doc, but why does that make Percy-not-SK less likely to kill him?

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Ah, I see the point. Will do some re-reading.

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Waiting on MacavityLock.

Are you saying you're ready to vote Percy?

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The fact that we've had no SK counterclaim worries me re: a Percy lynch. Feels like a maf trap to me. Continuing read.

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(If he were normalscum, he could have been lynched and won the game.)

'Splain how.

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Things that definitely occurred night 1:
Elvis X-busted Boxman.
Boxman poked SensFan (exploding both in process)
SK arsoned mathcam
Iec noun-copped ML (this can only not be true if Iec and I are scum together)

Things that definitely occurred night 2:
Someone RBed Elvis (claimed by Percy)
SK arsoned Spyrex
Maf bludgeoned SpyreX

Unless Iec can do 2 actions a night (noun-copping and arsoning), he's not the arsonist. If he is the arsonist, he has no good reason to

not

noun-cop last night, unless it was one-shot. If Iec-SK's noun-cop was roleblocked, wouldn't his arson be roleblocked too? Conclusion: Iec cannot be the SK unless he can both noun-cop and kill in the same night, his noun-cop is RB-able and his kill is not, or the noun-cop was one-shot. I don't think Iec is the arsonist.

I think there's more to be gleaned from the guaranteed night actions, but my brain is buzzing at the moment from having to proctor a final at 8 AM this morning.

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Oh, I'm soooo happy :}

Looks to me like Percy = RBscum, SC = Goon or BPscum, Bud = SK.

Don't worry town, this is a good outcome. Not voting just yet, I want to see how everyone else reacts.

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SOLUTION: You are the SK. I think ML being investi-proof would be the second-most-likely option. Third would be 9:2:1, if Percy has some ABSURDLY powerful abilities. But they'd have to be REALLY outrageous.

Why is SC-maf not 2nd most likely to you, Iec?

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HA HA HA! This is awesome!

OK, time to figure out who the RB-maf is, though I'm pretty sure it's Percy.

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SC, why does Keanu Reeves light people on fire?

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By the way, this means that the Neto-lynch was entirely town-driven, except for Boxman. :{

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Why would Budja be impressed with your SK claim and consequently counterclaim it? Wouldn't he just go along and lynch SK ftw given that RBscum can happily block EK and win him the game?

This.

Budja has absolutely no reason to counterclaim Percy is Percy actually is the SK.

Budja only has reason to counterclaim Percy is Percy is the RBer.

vote percy

My only problem with this is that I would say we were unlikely to lynch the claimed SK, as that would have possibly led to a maf win.

Hypothetical: Percy - SK, Bud, SC - maf. Percy claims and is shunted to the side, and one of Budja, SC, Iec or ML gets lynched. Iec and ML are unlikely to get lynched as well, so one of Budja or SC is likely to be. Budja, realizing this, claims SK as well, thus hoping to take pressure off himself and get Percy lynched through counterclaim.

However, I can't figure out why SC claimed SK too. And this is kind of true in all hypotheticals.

Is my hypothetical probable? Eh, maybe 20%, I don't know. But it's possible.

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It's possible, but I doubt it. He claimed SK right after I voted Percy. The rhetoric was going toward a Percy lynch IMO. Budja may have misperceived things, though, or maybe I did.

That's actually not true, as I was looking out for that. However, I did previously miss your stated intention to vote Percy in 980. Yeah, I see what you mean. All very strange.

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It's possible, but I doubt it. He claimed SK right after I voted Percy. The rhetoric was going toward a Percy lynch IMO. Budja may have misperceived things, though, or maybe I did.

That's actually not true, as I was looking out for that. However, I did previously miss your stated intention to vote Percy in 980. Yeah, I see what you mean. All very strange.

For clarity, when I said "that's not true," it referred to your voting Percy. I believe you stated your intention to do so, but didn't actually vote him before Budja's claim.

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Hey, look at that, you're right. I'm dumb. My hypothetical remains possible, but even more unlikely.

I think the die has been cast. elvis, is there anything we need to discuss re: your redirect before I hammer?

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Yeah, here goes nothing.

Vote: Percy

. Good luck, elvis.

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AHHHH! Drake need to post the damn scene. I'm drowning in the tension!

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Vote: No Lynch

. Iec, vote No Lynch with me immediately.

Right now, we're in a town-is-kingmaker situation. If we lynch Budja, SC-SK wins. If we lynch SC, Budja & maf win.

However, if we go to no lynch tonight, then SC pretty much has to NK Budja. Budja then gets to play kingmaker. If he kills town, SC wins. If he doesn't NK, town wins. It's our only shot, as far as I can tell.

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It depends on what the scum win condition is, but yeah you're right, that is a possibility. Personally, I think the game would be pretty stupid if it came down to who is around first when the thread unlocks tomorrow, and I'd hope Drake didn't build his game that way.

I'm sticking with No Lynch.

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Heh. Well, that just happened.

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Huh. Interesting point, based on the kill flavor, it was maf who killed last night, not SK. Handsomed to death more likely comes from Keanu Reeves. So, it's totally plausible that Budja is SK, SC is un-NKable GF scum.

Wait a second, has anyone actually tested SC's unNKable-ness?

Anyway, I don't think this analysis substantially changes the conclusion. I'm pretty sure no lynching was the only conceivable way for town to win here.

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Damn you SC! You gave Budja the win.

I guess my method of death was fitting, as I was on fire this game. You all should have listened to me on day 2 with an SC lynch. <grumble grumble grumble>

Iec, my bad for consistently reading you as scummy, when I should have been paying closer attention.

I'll probably have more to add. But for right now, dammit!

Thanks for modding, Drake.

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How do you go about signaling that you're town? I think I manage to do it instinctively, as I've never actually been mislynched (well, once, but there were extenuating circumstances). But I don't do it consciously. Is there something that you put forth the effort to do?