Mini 852- Crayola Catastrophe Game Over (Post 1158)

[Jahudo]

Hello! I haven't read anything yet.
Tell me which Yellow you prefer / can read. (This is normal yellow)

[Jahudo]

Sorry, I'm still reading.

[Jahudo]

I'll have the whole game comments by tomorrow, but here's my day 1 comments now. I already saw the flips, because that's how I like to read when replacing into a game.

The reads run from most suspicious of to least suspicious of, but those may change in my next catch-up posts.


Josh Lyman: scummy
* Post 80 looks like a piggyback on the chamber wagon, which by itself is a valid reason to join the wagon, but he does not make an attempt to expand on the case that he’s giving more momentum to than previous votes. That makes the vote look more opportunistic.

* Post 171 Has a scummy and opportunistic adhom attack on charter, who isn’t in the game to defend himself so it just goes on the replacement who can’t defend against it.

* Post 210 Is another scummy adhom attack, this time on Zazier for his playstyle. It does nothing to try and explain alignment, but it just attack the player.


Budja: scummy
* Post 82 Calling an L-1 wagon L-2 concerns me. It shows he was looking close enough to the momentum of chamber’s wagon but not close enough at the individual votes. Maybe it was a misread, but there was still the intention to point out something without understanding it enough, so it looks disingenuous.

* Post 222 Caught me as IIOA (Information instead of Analysis). His opinions of Kirby and SOG are ambiguous. His piggyback on Sociopath’s post 116 doesn’t show conviction because he doesn’t expand on the why. He does explain his SOG opinion better in post 243.


SocioPath: some scummy / some townish
* I like post 77's analysis.

* Post 92 is full of emotive words that normally look fake to me, but based on his overall play I'm starting to think its a non-alignment playstyle tell.

* 105, second paragraph, looks like a strawman defense to me. Socio tries to invalidate my predecessor's vote on him by defending his play that happens after the case point, instead of the case point itself.

* 204 has a good point, but I don’t like where he extrapolates on the possibilities, which seems like guessing for the sake of guessing.


Pomegranate: neutral
* Pre-209 she was mostly out of the game from V/LA and she largely missed the chamber wagon and discussion. I don’t see the V/LA as an alignment-tell.

* Post 209 I feel the reads on Snow, Socio, Kirby, Chibo, Green, Manz, Nacho, Zazier, and Josh were IIOA and ambiguous. The reads on Budja and SOG did have some analysis and opinion. I can understand her coming back from V/LA and not having had the time to analyze posts, but she could have tried to explain some feelings more openly. She apparently had read the thread enough to know some of the events that happened.


ChiboSempai: townish
* Post 79 He voted chamber later on without expanding the case, so it could be opportunistic. I can understand his wanting to continue suspecting the player slot until/unless the replacement looks pro-town. It doesn’t look like a matter of the replacement having to speak for the original player, but rather being under pressure to look pro-town and be pro-town, which isn’t unfair if the player is town.

*Post 240 Has a balanced, reason-based approach to the sog case. He looks at other people’s suspicions for him and gives his own take.


Kirbyoshi: town
* Post 176 is a good vote by explaining why SOG looks scummy and why Kirby doesn’t think Zazie’s playstyle is scummy.

* Post 263 I disagree with, but can understand where he’s coming from.

-Nacho had made 8 posts prior to his vote on Josh. 6 of those posts had no content whatsoever, but indicated he was on V/LA. Posts 218 and 257 had good content.

-Josh had 11 posts before Nacho’s vote. 5 didn’t have content IMO (31, 39, 172, 195, 211), 1 piggyback vote on chamber without expanding the case, 1 unvote with only implied reasoning, and 4 others (170, 171, 210, 236) that IMO have less content than Nacho’s 2 posts.

Kirby has a valid point that Nacho hadn’t posted much and didn’t have much content in those posts. And I don’t think Kirby defended any lurkers or condemned them in this post, so I think he handled the matter in a pro-town fashion.


Nachomamma: town
* Post 218 I like these questions. He asks specific questions meant to get definitive stances from people, but he also tries to give his own opinion without giving them an out with what he might want a townie to answer. I think this is good scumhunting.

* Post 257 shows some good analysis and not just information. He looks at both sides of the sog wagon and some other causes for suspicion on sog like his aggressiveness to get a better understanding of why sog might act like he does. This shows me that Nacho is genuinely trying to get a sog read.

* His prodding vote on Josh looks appropriate, but maybe not executed as good as it could have been. I realize you can’t just tell someone you’re voting them as a prod to make content, but you can show their lack of content to post ratio upfront, or explain your stance better.

[Jahudo]

Here’s my Day 2 comments.
Reads of scummy to town are based on Day 2 actions only. I’ll compile an average after I’m fully caught up.

Pomegranate - scum
* Post 333 has an ambiguous read on Josh. Pome feels more confident of Shanba’s wagon than she says, because she is critical of e_k’s post that wonders if Shanba is town. This is the start of an odd focus she has with e_k, which I find to be the most interesting part of Day 2 and I’ll try to explain further.

* Post 476 she gives an unreasoned scumlist after being prodded by e_k. She could easily backtrack from this scumlist, because she never places a value on the numbers or the spaces between them. Without those values, I am suspicious of this post.

* Post 484 She gives reasoning for her scumlist after a prodding from Nacho, but when I read it I thought they were e_k quotes. It feels like a lot of rehash from stances e_k has taken, and cases she has made. I’ll make some side-by-side comparisons with e_k, but I already think that Pome is piggybacking off her. I don’t think this makes e_k look scummy, but I am suspicious of Pome’s motives.

* Post 535 Her comment on Chibo’s trap is another echo of e_k (post 532). Pome doesn’t have the conviction to make a definitive stance on it, but she says enough to make it look scummy. I am suspicious that she is trying to add suspicion without making it come from her.

* Post 573 I feel is confirmation bias. She brushes off Shanba’s attempt to defend himself, and her words suggest she doesn’t want to hear him try to defend himself. She doesn’t explain why/how it could be a scum ploy from him. She wants to avoid having to analyize it until after he flips. All of this is scummy.


Nachomamma – some scummy, some townie
* Post 392 Where he suggests that Chibo’s confidence suggests more than VT. Regardless of whether he tried to or not, that wording is an odd way to suspect someone as scum, which he admits in post 409. It is odd because scum are not considered “More than vanilla townie”, as he wrote, but different than vanilla townie. You take a VT and add more to make a power role. So it plainly implies rolefishing. And Post 409 could be backtracking. Both posts are concerning and suspicious.

* Post 513 his reasoning for Budja looks like a piggyback off other people’s cases. It even feels like he’s aware of this, but I don’t see an attempt from him to take a different/closer look. However, he was prodded right before that post, so it likely could be a result of inactivity. I could see this post coming from town.

* Post 575 looks like a good, honest vote on Chibo. I think he took a fair but strong approach to Chibo’s tunnelvision by trying to get Chibo to talk about other possible suspects. Nacho is taking attention away from the townie Shanba, which looks town at that point in the game.


SocioPath – some scummy, but mostly town feeling
* Post 337 There’s a few lines at the end of the post that look like a chainsaw defense of Josh to attack Shanba. Either that or the comment is ill-placed next to the vote. Socio seems to suspect Shanba for his opinion on Josh by his reaction to Zazy’s posting style. Socio disagrees, but I do not see where Socio makes the case that this Shanba’s opinion is invalid, but rather different. Did you suspect Shanba for that opinion?

* Post 394 He just throws out the idea of bussing between Shanba and Chibo without A) saying if he believes it and/or B) he has posts to back it up. By just throwing it out there he’s adding suspicion to each person without reasoning. This looks suspicious.

* Post 515 and some others where he tries to get people to suspect him, and tries to explain why he’s acting this way. I think this is an indication of his playstyle, and not alignment. It doesn’t make sense for scum to try and gain attention like this.

* Post 564 Says he’d rather lynch unhelpful town than scum-hunting scum. I’m not sure if he defended this yet, but I read it as poor wording and nothing more. Scum wouldn’t say what he said, because it is so categorically wrong. I think he meant something else, but I’ll let him elaborate if he can.


ChiboSempai
* I only read a few Day 3 posts around where I joined, so I caught his claim but I don’t know the specifics of it. It affects about every post he made Day 2, but I can’t say whether I believe that claim until I get done reading the game.


Budja / Yankee – townish, but mostly inactive
* Budja had 5 posts over the course of 5 days. That isn’t grounds for lurking, and the timing of his replacement suggests it has nothing to do with the game but rather he had limited time like he said.

* Budja’s only pro-active scum-hunting post in Day 2 is 351 where he goes after Kirby. I think his vote looks honest because Kirby is a much harder target than Shanba, and he raises a valid point about Kirby’s post (that I don’t think is a tell after reading Kirby’s defense). But its still a townish looking post.

* Yankee has 13 posts in Day 2 but only 3-4 have content in them. His original vote on Shanba seems to only be about the hammer, which is a large part of the case, but he has nothing else to say about SB or Shanba’s play. I would have found this suspicious because in post 552 he looks like one of the least confident people on the wagon, but then on post 568 he unvotes based on one of Shanba’s posts.

* I’m not phased by Yankee’s “rolefish” because the fish had already been rolled by Nacho, so Yankee is just rehashing something that didn’t get anyone to claim cop in the first place.


Kirbyoshi - townish
* Post 398 is ambiguous and continues Socio’s bussing theory without elaborating / restating more why Shanba and Chibo are continuing to act “uber scummy”. I can’t tell from his posts what about Shanba’s posts are scummy, and he only mentioned Chibo over the rolefishing. The post could just be an off-hand remark, like conversational, but it looks like it can turn into an unreasoned scum-pairing.

* Post 514 has some opinions on alignments but they feel ambiguous reads except for Socio. I really can’t figure out why he feels the way he does about these people, but the fact that he’s making reads without being pressured to is a pro-town thing.

* Post 678 Looks like a pro-active post right before deadline that looked like it took time and researching to evaluate Zazier posts. He switches back to Shanba to make sure it got through over Yankee’s lynch I’m guessing, but as scum he wouldn’t have had to leave the Shanba wagon in the first place. And Zazier got killed over night, so it couldn’t be starting the ball rolling on a Day 3 lynch. So to me this looks like someone who is honestly trying to determine if Zazier’s spamming is an alignment tell in this game.


elvis_knits - town
* Post 335 shows patience in looking at both sides of the Shanba argument when a quick and easy policy lynch could have been orchestrated. I have the hindsight to know Shanba’s alignment, but I do like that she isn’t trying to rush the day even if she she still liked her chances on a Shanba-scum throughout the day.

* Post 373 Is full of content and alignment-tell stances. More analysis than information, and talks about each of the players. So this is a pro-town post. TBH, I’m curious to why greendude was listed under town, and not pointed out as a lurker. She does say that the town list are people who “Haven’t pinged the scumdar”, so maybe that’s it.

* Post 480 Looks like DGB hacked into her account for a post. What I mean is that it looks uncharacteristic of the rest of her posts and playstyle. I disagree with her letting Pome off the hook (as I explained in the Pome section), but e_k had been making it clear she wanted to move her vote to Budja for a while so there wasn’t much pressure to release in this instance. I don’t think this is scummy of e_k. And I certainly don’t believe it makes Pome and e_k look like scumbuddies like Zazier said. I believe e_k would have taken the easier route and kept pressure / distanced Pome until the list had reasoning (which would have been easy as I explained in the Pome section). This also makes sense if e_k is scum and Pome is town, so in any case I think this is a sign of e_k towniness.

[Jahudo]

Just so you all know, I am not a drunk. That flavor probably began in pregame with the line "I was downing some bazzers at the battle cruiser."

[Jahudo]

I thought it important for Chibo to claim cop at that point only if he got a guilty result, so we could trade a cop for a scum, which, in my opinion, is a good trade.

Why did/do you think a cop with a guilty would be a good trade and worth doing? Early day 2 you pointed out the risk of a cop with a guilty, because he could be insane:

Do you think cop should claim with guilty no matter what? I ask merely for information.

No. The cop could be insane, there could be far too many scum for it to matter... Now, in a open game setup (confirmed sanity) with less than 15 players, then I'd say yes, every time. Otherwise, it's basically personal discretion.

So did you still want a cop with a guilty to claim even though, as you pointed out, he could be insane?

@Chibo: I'm curious if you read Nacho's post about an insane cop, and if you thought anything of it at the time.

To me, Nacho seemed to be genuinely suspicious of Chibo, more than just pressuring him to backup his confidence in Shanba's guiltyness as if Chibo was a townie:

So you would recommend to the town to lynch you immediately if Shanba turns up pro-town, right? If not, why not. Being that confident in scum or not-scum suggests something more than just a vanilla townie.

Why do you think that chibo's telling the truth? And that was meant to imply scum, not power role...

Doesn't that above quote imply that you were pressuring him as if you thought he was scum? If not, what was you goal of saying "imply scum, not power role..."?

[Jahudo]

I am all caught up in the game. My top suspect is Pomegranate, and an organized case is coming next. Chibo is my number two suspect, although I am still considering the claim because it does account for his play so far.


ChiboSempai
* Post 701 It looks like he’s misrepresenting Nacho’s case against him by leveling the Shanba votes as equal, when they were not. His counter-attack on Nacho looks like its trying to make Nacho realize he’s the scum, but its clearly there to make us realize that Nacho is the scum. But Chibo uses a false dilemma because we don’t know that Chibo is town. Its natural to look on a mislynch wagon for scum, because scum want to lynch townies. The key is in the way people look at mislynch voters, and why, not the fact that they do.

I want to see if Chibo is still sticking to this defense / counter-attack because we know why he was tunnelvisioning now, but Day 2 even he should know that it looked obvious he wasn’t VT and could understand the suspicious he got.

And since he got a guilty on Nacho, and was suspecting Nacho today, does that mean he is confident that he’s a paranoid cop?

* Post 835 Looks like a piggyback on the Kirby case. I don’t like his excuse that he ignored it the first time around because he didn’t know what to make of it, while also saying that he never did like it. If he never did like it, then he was withholding cases and that is incredibly anti-town.


Pomegranate
* Post 734 lacks research and is either a show of unreasoned conviction or overeager opportunism. She thinks that Chibo-scum could have tunnelvisioned Shanba to avoid the lynch of his scumbuddy Budja/Yankee. This makes no sense because Chibo made that commitment to Shanba far earlier than Budja became a viable lynch target.

She also isn’t paying attention to the players in the game, because she was apparently prodding me to post a couple days before I joined the game:

GreenDude- We really need to hear more from his replacement, as he's been mega-lurking.

At first I thought she was talking about GreenDude lurking, but it clearly looks to me like the subject of that sentence is “his replacement.”

Pome also gives blanket reads on Yankee/Budja based on her feeling, that they didn’t do anything. That should be easy to prove, but she shows no effort to read the game and see for sure. I do not think she is reading the game, because time and again we see her rehashing points that other people made before her. I’ll give as many examples of this as I can, because she is my top suspect right now.


@Kirbyoshi
* Post 710 – What do you mean by

looking at the NK history, including last Night, it seems we have expert scum on our hands.

Last night’s kill is answered for us, but what are you trying to say with “expert scum”?


SocioPath
* Posts 764 and 771 – I like that Socio takes a stand against the setup speculation about the drunk. It was sidetracking the group away from scumhunting, and instead of allowing it to stall the game I think he does a pro-town action by voting.

I can see where the newer players might get too focused on roles. I feel that e_k should have read the flavor as just flavor, but I think I’ve only played hydra games with her so I don’t have any meta.

[Jahudo]

And I'm happy that Jahudo is posting something. I'd like to see what he has to say about D2, as well as the current goings-on.

That would be post 890. Did you miss it? It was a pretty long post.

[Jahudo]

Also for Juhudo, who would be your second pick after Pome, and what is your reasoning. Just curious If you find my suspect suspicious as well.

Right now it's Nacho for his day 2 play.

I had said Chibo was my number 2 suspect in terms of anti-town/scummy play and tells, but his claim makes more sense if he's townie. How I read his day 2 game, he would have had to plan the fake claim from the start and stick with it. It seems like overkill when S_B was already the top suspect going into night. I actually think the Shanba wagon would have gone to lynch alot sooner if Chibo hadn't tunneled. However, he's shown single-minded focus for most of the game that's been anti-town. I don't think he's today's play but he does need to scumhunt without relying on his power role.


@Kirby, Nacho: Why don't you let Pome try and defend her quote? If you'll notice, I put a reason on that same quote in the previous post. I don't know what Socio doesn't like about that quote, but I want Pome to respond to me before we over analyze and give her an out.

[Jahudo]

And when I mean "Nacho's day 2 play", I'm not talking about his vote on Chibo.
The main posts are 392, 409 and 513.

[Jahudo]

I feel that the following Pomegranate quotes are disingenuous.
It can be hard for scum to develop original suspicions of players they know to be town. I think that Pome is using other people’s opinions in an effort to limit making her own opinions.

She is mostly using e_k, who began Day 2 as very pro-town in several people’s eyes:

SoG, played well, but the lynch didn't help us much, except for Snowbunny's scummy hammer. I don't really buy her self-justification, and I'm somewhat suspicious of Shanba right now.

I didn't particularly like Josh's play D1, but I'm not that suspicious of her right now. She seems more likely town to me than Shanba.

Her scumlist after being prodded by elvis_knits:

Scumlist:
1) Budja
2) ZazieR
3) Shanba
4)Nachomamma8
5) ChiboSempai
6) GreenDude
7) elvis_knits
8) SocioPath
9) Kirbyoshi

<snip>Scumlist:
Pomegrantate
Budja
Shanba
Zazier
Chibo
SocioPath
Kirbyoshi
Nachomamma
GreenDude

The top 4 e_k suspects (minus Pome) became Pome’s 4 of her top 5 suspects.

Her scumlist explained after being prodded:

Budja- Don't feel like we've gotten much from him D2 so far. His first main post D2 was a lame vote on Kirby, in post 351…<snip>

In other news, Budja is still scum. He hid on easy wagons all D1, and the only original thought he's had all game is voting kirbyoshi, and I think kirby is town.

ZazieR- I personally had no problem with chamber's playstyle, but Zazie's bothering me now. She's asking a lot of pointless questions…<snip>

zazie, your posting is really rubbing me the wrong way how you seem to ask about stuff that is in some cases seems really obvious, and in others seems completely inconsequential.

Shanba- I agree with most of EK's case on Shanba post 323…<snip>

A copy after the first mention of a "trap":

Oh, one more thing, chibo, you said that you put the vote on SoG to see if snow bunny would hammer.

Which is sort of like you setting a trap for her. And I generally don't like traps and think most of the time scum are the ones who set traps. So that is another complication for me.

I don't much like the idea of Chibo's trap.

I could see the motivation as scum, as well as the reasoning as town. I see it as slightly scummy, but generally a null-tell, as both town and scum attempt "traps".

++Scum points for wishy-washy stance on “traps” while still adding suspicion to Chibo for it.

There was some opinion and content in other posts, and some after the snips I created for effect, but I could find the same stances in other people's stances. My overall point is that all of her posts lack analysis. There is far too much IIOA and piggybacking on the popular wagons.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Vote: Pomegranate

[Jahudo]

@MOD: Can we have a vote count please?

Is deadline still tomorrow?

If so we need to determine our top 2-3 choices.

[Jahudo]

1. Pome
2. Nacho
3. Yankee

The distance between 1 and 2 is pretty far though.
I won't consider a Chibo lynch based on what we've seen so far. The claim looks legit.
I won't consider a SocioPath because I have a strong town read on him.

[Jahudo]

It looks like Chibo is relying on his role power to scumhunt, instead of analyzing posts. He is being honest about lurking though, which I would not expect from scum.

I'm getting alot of newbie tells from him, and that makes me think he's town. If he was scum, his role claim would have been too elaborately planned to come from someone that doesn't know how to hide the most basic anti-town tells.

[Jahudo]

Pome's claim makes sense that she would target e_k after agreeing with her in day 2. Claiming doc would be a bold thing for scum to do, but let's see if anyone can counter-claim. I can't.

At this point I want to plead for a couple days of extension and a popcorn massclaim.

If we have a 3-person mafia, we're in MYLO and an outed doc is basically saying we're in LYLO. Even if we're in a 2-person mafia, enough power roles have been outed that I think outing everybody won't change scum's NK decisions much.

@MOD: Can we have a couple days of extension before deadline please?

[Jahudo]

Oh yeah.
@Pome: Who did you target Night 1?

[Jahudo]

Vote: Deadline Extension

I'd also like to hear from everyone if a popcorn massclaim is a good idea at this point, or why it would be best to wait until tomorrow at the earliest.

[Jahudo]

Anyways, i am still wary of Pome and my vote will stay on her.

What specifically made you drop your Pome vote?

Also, I could see a player wait to use a 1-shot vig kill. Sometimes I get so confident on a player read that I wish I had a vig kill to use, but other times I'm not sure. So I can believe that part.

[Jahudo]

To those who say Socio is pro-town, can someone show me a case that he's made on someone? A rational-sounding case on anyone, really... I just want to see ONE case.

I don't know if he's great at finding scum or acting pro-town to avoid suspicion, but I see some of his posts as an indication of his personality that he'd do as any alignment.

* Post 515 and some others where he tries to get people to suspect him, and tries to explain why he’s acting this way. I think this is an indication of his playstyle, and not alignment. It doesn’t make sense for scum to try and gain attention like this.

* Post 564 Says he’d rather lynch unhelpful town than scum-hunting scum. I’m not sure if he defended this yet, but I read it as poor wording and nothing more. Scum wouldn’t say what he said, because it is so categorically wrong. I think he meant something else, but I’ll let him elaborate if he can.

* Posts 764 and 771 – I like that Socio takes a stand against the setup speculation about the drunk. It was sidetracking the group away from scumhunting, and instead of allowing it to stall the game I think he does a pro-town action by voting.

1. I really doubt there are only 2 scum in a 12 person game. Sure one was a Jester, but I would think there should be 3. Does anyone know of a setup or successful game out there that has ran with only 2 mafia members in a game of 12?

Here's all the 12 player mini games I've played:

M645 - 3 mafia / 9 townies
M692 - 3 mafia / 9 townies
M695 - 3 mafia / 1 SK / 8 townies
M708 - 3 mafia / 1 SK / 8 townies
M726 - 3 mafia / 1 cult leader / 1 SK / 7 townies
M736 - 3 mafia / 1 cult leader / 8 townies
M739 - 2 mafia / 1 SK / 9 townies
M746 - 2 mafia / 1 jester / 9 townies
M802 - 3 mafia / 1 SK / 8 townies

A 3 person mafia is typical in my experience, with 1 third party role to make 4 total scum. But I have only seen a jester in a mini once before, and that only had 2 mafia.

[Jahudo]

@MOD: Everybody said yes to deadline extension

If there's no opposition to a popcorn massclaim, I say we decide who claims first and that person will choose the next person to claim, and so on until all have claimed:

My preference:
1) Nachomamma
2) Kirbyoshi
3) elvis_knits
4) SocioPath
* Jahudo

[Jahudo]

I figured I'd include my name for the sake of everyone knowing who hasn't claimed yet.

[Jahudo]

I am a vanilla town.

Is neighbor the same as mason in this case?

[Jahudo]

unvote

Pome has the most pro-town role and I believe she is town now.

I can still buy Chibo's claim, but if the mafia is underpowered then there's a good chance he's paranoid and useless. And if he was in an underpowered mafia, then he might have felt safer about fakeclaiming cop.

Yankee's early claim helps him, and only a full vig could have outed him if he was faking it. I could see 2 1-shot vigs because that basically equals 1 full vig. If he was scum, he could only guess there wasn't a vig because of blocks/protects, and he might not have taken that chance. I also think he's played better than Budja, though I'd like to see more cases from him.

Both the neighbors have looked pro-town to me so I really think the power is real and not a scumteam ploy. I don't think the role should confirm them both, but I think they're both town through their play.

There's a chance we have 2 mafia goons who knew (by their lack of power) that there would be an underpowered town and could fakeclaim, but I think the play today is one of the vanillas. At least one scum has to have claimed vanilla.

That makes my top suspect Nacho, and my default second Kirby. But honestly, I'm considering a Chibo lynch just for the results and because I don't think we're in MYLO. Unless Nacho is GF or Chibo is paranoid, lynching Chibo would give us 2 flips for 1 on people who are probably not among tonight's NK targets. There are some "ifs" in this plan, so I want to just talk about it now while we all name top suspects.

[Jahudo]

There would need to be a 3-man scum team for us to be in mylo. That does not seem to balance well against the power roles we have or think we have.

[Jahudo]

No lynch is a bad idea. NK likely wont get rid of a suspect, and Chibo's results don't mean anything until we kill either him or scum he investigated.

A vanilla lynch is a good option. I can agree with it, whatever we end up deciding.

I feel that Nacho has been more questionable than Kirby, but I don't like how a paranoid cop would fit into this setup. Anythings possible setup-wise, and I shouldn't be trying to outguess the mod in that respect.

[Jahudo]

I understand what Yankee is saying, with wanting to believe insane cop over paranoid; but the more I think about it, this game is a theme game which can have less common roles and variants. And we don't know how powerful or weak the mafia is, so this might be as good a setup as any for paranoid cop. The thing is, we just don't know so assumptions can't be counted on yet.

So if I think Nacho has displayed more scumtells throughout the game than Kirby, which I have, then my vote is clear.

Vote: Nachomamma8

[Jahudo]

I'd like to hear from Socio, Chibo and Pome again before the hammer is dropped.

Nacho should say whether he believes scum is on his wagon, and if so who.

As for tonight, I think Pome should protect one of the neighbors and Chibo should investigate either Kirby or Yankee.

[Jahudo]

I understand that I look like possible scum, but everyone should be thinking about scum pairs today also, and I'll try to save myself from a lynch.

With a 2-person scum team, today is LYLO. If Chibo was in that 2-person mafia you wouldn't "find" another guilty... he would say he has an innocent for the more obvious lynch choice that he wouldn't have to answer for because there wouldn't be a tomorrow. Unless he planned that part out too, he's town. If he is scum, then I really underestimated him, but I hope I'm right here.

Pome not dying makes no sense. Scum were taking a risk to not kill her because she could have protected Yankee. I'm starting to wonder if she went for a gutsy fake claim. There's a chance the scum want to WIFOM us out on her being alive so I'm not ready to declare her scum yet.

I might have to consider one of the neighbors being scum, but I haven't seen it in their play since Josh day 1. That leaves Kirby, which means Chibo would have to be paranoid or Kirby is GF. I could believe GF, but I haven't seen much scummy behavior.

[Jahudo]

The lovers make for some bizarre flavor. Socio is Pome's son and e_k had a son of her own in the pregame flavor. e_k must be a cougar
I don't think that means anything, but I think its funny.

I haven't seen many lovers, so does anyone know if a doc protect one half has ever protected the other half?

The setup is making me think that one of the lovers might be scum. I believe all the power roles are what they say they are... so a sanity-issue cop, vig, jester, and lovers can do alot of damage on their own without the mafia's help. I don't know who a second scum could be.

[Jahudo]

Even due to the text it could mean that there is only one killer, I wouldn't expect there to be a single killer if they were a lover tied to the town.

What do you mean by one killer?

Now if theres a 2 scum pair, and one of them is a lover with someone else, then the other mafia member would know that the other one is part of the lover deal then I assume right? If we read into that then we might get a slightly better feel of things.

Yes, a second mafia player should have known since the first time scum night talked.

The fact that Pome claimed a power role means that we should be able to look into that more logically before choosing to lynch either Jahudo or Pome (imo).

A claim that is not confirmable. It was an early claim back when someone could have countered, but by this point I could believe 2 docs in this seemingly underpowered town setup. I've seen multiple docs before. I've seen scum doctors.

Reading back to earlier on this day when people brought up the liklihood of Pome telling the truth from the Yankeee night kill makes me think Jahudo more.

Why is that?

Couple that with my original at least one mafia had to have disguised their self as a VT makes me think Jahudo more.

I had thought this too if scum were just goons, but if one was a lover then they would obviously claim lover. I think they have to be looked at the same way.

[Jahudo]

Interesting thoughts and I guess it doesn't hurt to speculate at this point.

An SK and town lover combo sounds almost too good for the SK. If he can't get NK'ed except for a single shot Vig, then all he has to do is claim lover and that will probably save him from a lynch.

Our crazy cop has created confusion by claiming, which might have been intentional in the setup to give an underpowered scum more of a chance.

I still don't think there's a way to tell if paranoid cop is more or less likely than an insane cop and a GF scum role. But I'm not sure many SKs get townie cop reads.

[Jahudo]

Which would mean she didn't think she stopped the kill. Which means if she is scum she also targetted zazie.

She would have thought she didn't stop the scum kill if she was town. But did she explain why she thought the NK made her suspicious of e_k?

Her killing Zazy would be WIFOM because he was one of her top suspects day 2. He kept asking her questions, so it might be motivation just to shut him up

We should not assume Pome looks odd just because her role isn't flawed; we actually don't know if her role is normal doctor. She could be a variation and we wouldn't know unless a protection failed.

I am leaning towards voting Pome, mainly because of what I thought were scumtells on her before the claim.

[Jahudo]

Mafia scum + lover pair is also probably too overpowered for this setup. One shot to get NK'ed, a claim typically saves them from a lynch, and a hypothetical insane cop has low odds of being alive to find the scum half and claim by the time he realizes he's looking for an innocent.

I've voting Pomegranate for the scumtells. I can rehash any of my points if people need a refresher.

Vote: Pomegranate.

[Jahudo]

Even due to the text it could mean that there is only one killer, I wouldn't expect there to be a single killer if they were a lover tied to the town.

Jahudo -
By one killer I meant one scum. I got mixed up with the game's favlor text as we're trying to find out who killed Totally Awesome Dude.

I honestly don't know where people are getting this magical theory of a SK all of a sudden.

You were the one who brought up the magical theory of an SK all of a sudden. What else could "one scum" mean?

[Jahudo]

Can we get a vote count?
Who's not voting? It looks like Socio, e_k and Pome. Who are your top suspects?

[Jahudo]

Socio, e_k and Pome, who are your top suspects?

[Jahudo]

@Pome: How concerned are you that most people have expressed interest in lynching you today? If you believe we have a two man scumteam then a mislynch here is game over, right? Why aren't you doing more to defend yourself or convince people that someone is a better lynch than you?

[Jahudo]

e_k, Pome isn't at L-1. Are you worried someone would quickhammer?

@Socio: What do you think of the possibility that e_k is scum and let Pome survive the night in order to lynch her the next day? Didn't she tell you that Pome should be lynched if she survive the night? And aren't you following her suggestion today?

Note that I do not believe e_k is scum, but I am interested in hearing Socio answer those questions.

[Jahudo]

e_k, is what Socio said true? When you described your night conversation you didn't mention Socio saying he might depending on night kills, you said he would claim and you didn't meantion 60%.

[Jahudo]

Pome, you voted me at the start of this game day. Why do you think Kirby or Chibo over me?

[Jahudo]

Pome, do you still think that e_k was the scum's night 2 target?

[Jahudo]

@Kirby: Cult would only be possible if recruits weren't revealed as recruits when they're killed. Otherwise a cult would have had the majority by day 4.

Pome is not making any sense. She believes Socio is scum, and scum tried to kill e_k night 2. Why would scum kill his lover? That is beyond WIFOM. Scum wouldn't commit suicide. I still feel good about my vote.

Deadline is tomorrow. Anyone else have anything to say before today ends?

[Jahudo]

I'd say the setup was balanced alright but once we massclaimed there were a few assumptions we could make and feel really good about, like an SK not being a lover.

I think Pome played really well when being under pressure. I like how she didn't get over-defensive in her tone or posting frequency. It made me second guess my read a few times today even though I didn't share those feelings.

And I expected more pressure on me for replacing a guy who did nothing, but I can't complain. I understand Chibo's concern about me and I believed his role from the way he handled day 2 in getting a guilty.