Mini 188: Texas Holdem Mafia - GAME OVER!

[Thesp]

Random vote: Quagmire

. Just 'cuz.

It's also possible that with the "All in" rule, the mafia's been tweaked a little to give them a boost. Be on guard.

[Thesp]

Vote: EmpTyger

for fishing for information. He seems to be using uncertainty over chip counts to fish for information on roles. Nothing huge at the moment, but my best guess right now.

[Thesp]

Aelyn:
If your experiments were successful, you would have innocently gained a high chip total. And I don’t see how your most recent experiment differed from any previous doubleposting. You didn’t reveal that your first experiment was even deliberate until I questioned you about it. The desire to find out “rapidly” makes me think that *you* wanted to be the one to do the experimenting and thus pad your chipcount; had you been patient, it might have been revealed naturally and you would have lost your chance. Moreover,

I still don’t see any advantage for innocents to have a high chip total, because it’s useless for scum to all-in.

Perhaps there’s another mechanic involving chips, but I can’t think of anything obvious and I don’t feel like positing one. So, with the best use of chips I can see being to allow scum to protect themselves, vote: Aelyn.

Umm...actually, the ideal scenario would be for everyone to have the same number of chips. It would be ideal if innocents all had the highest chip counts, so that any innocent could go all in against a potential scum. There are corresponding tactical disadvantages to having a higher chip count than anyone else, but I don't think it is necessarily the case that scum are the only ones who benefit from a high chip count. Also, if someone pro-town is worried that someone else would explore avenues of gaining extra chips, would it be bad for them to beat them to the punch? This is not to say that his chip count exploraton makes him innocent, but I don't think it's a scum tell.

I also concur with bamboomancer's idea that someone who is to be lynched (when 1-2 votes away with the needed votes promised) should have the opportunity to go all in against someone. Can't hurt. The only possible drawback I can conceive of is dead already (we'd get fewer cop investigations if we all-in once a day every day), but we're going to have fewer cop investigations anyway, most likely.

Still happy with my vote on EmpTyger at the moment.

[Thesp]

The best use of the all-in mechanic is that the first person about to be lynched can all-in another, as I outlined in [12] and Bamboo repeated [51], which no one has presented any objection to.

But this strategy doesn't depend on chip counts.

I've italicized the part of your statement with which I take issue. The strategy

does

depend on chip counts, unless you plan on only going after people with high chip counts. This is, in what you mention in the second paragraph, a sort of "daytime vig", albeit not a voluntary one. Again, the ideal scenario is one where everyone has a similar (or equal) number of chips. This not withstanding, if townies are the ones who have the most chips, then if they are ever pressured to be lynched, they can have a greater range of targets to choose from. I'm also loathe to dissuade people from posting, as people's posts are the best way to catch scum. That being said, I do think that judging quality in people's posts is

more

important in this mafia game than in most. Contentless posts won't do.

Also, Bamboomancer, a better test for checking if you are town is if you'd be willing to let somebody go all in on you. Otherwise you might be scum sacrificing a scum buddy.

Also worth noting, this is totally, insatiably, horribly wrong. There are several reasons, but most notably, hooray for making the power roles all appear scummy. You get a

FOS: Thok

for that. Also, rereading your latest posts, it appears that you're happy to vote for practically anyone.

I'm still happy with my vote at the moment, but it would be resting just as comfortably on Thok.

Addendum

: My wife (kristocker) will be graduating law school Saturday (practically today), then after having family over we're headed to Houston Monday to fly to New York for a week. Our hotel has internet access (I believe), but please forgive us both if our posting will not be as frequent as otherwise would allow. Thanks.

[Thesp]

bunch of sensical stuff

I'm feeling like an idiot right now. While I doubt there's anyone who would say they don't want to have someone go all in against them, I agree that such a strategy will not identify power roles as I'd previously suggested. Ugh. My mind be silly. My "this is totally, insatiably, horribly wrong" is hereby retracted in the name of sanity. Sorry about that.

[Thesp]

Hint... you may not realize it now... but this is instrumental somehow in the game

In that case, I'd like to order a glass of cold milk. Whole milk, no cloudy water.

It might be worthwhile for everyone to try this in some way.

[Thesp]

Also, on that note,

FOS: rajrhcpfreak

. If you think the scotch plays some role in the game, why didn't you order one to see what happens?

[Thesp]

Vote: Iammars

. I doubt suit means anything, and I don't have a suit. Partial uninvited roleclaim is awfully suspect, and I don't buy it.

[Thesp]

Clarification for our mod and for form (no chip needed):

Unvote: EmpTyger. Vote: Iammars

.

[Thesp]

So if Iammars is already going to be elaborating, I’d like to also know what the connection is between his role and his hand, since I can’t see any.
Compare:
KJ -> Kojak -> cop.
72 -> beer hand -> [Iammars’s ability]

Good question.

Also, I'm a little worried about your "I'm confident Iammars is scum" comment-certainly you have at least a little doubt, right?

Dranko always plays like this. Of course, the people he's always "certain of" being scum tend to be townies, but it's not out of his playstyle.

So far, most of the "playable" hands that I've seen (Myself and KJ) are town, so I think the mafia is crappy hands and that's why they lose against an all in player. That's just my guess.

Sounds like a good guess.

I'd need to see at least a couple more hands before I believe the poor hand equals mafia theory. I've also suggested that a nickname determines a person's role. (For example KJ=Kojak was a cop).

And on this nickname note, we shouldn't be claiming hands unless we have to.

Of course, some of the other nicknames for 7-2 unsuited listed on the site (Deadly Teddy Lee, The Hammer) don't help Iammars case.

I'm far more likely to think he's one of these, and used his actual hand for the claim and used a different nickname. To be entirely honest, I'm not sure what he'd say for me to think someone else would be a better lynch for today.

[Thesp]

i just checked my role and i relized that the better hands would be pro town. i am inclined to beleive that Iammars would be mafia. and with my double vote i am willing to lynch him soon. but i would like for him to make his final statement in his fifth and final post.

Now i dont know if we already know this... but if we go all in on Iammars and he is mafia and we vig him. is the day over or do we continue. i may have overlooked that part of the game.

We keep going, and try to lynch someone else.

[Thesp]

I’m on the list also; is anybody not? I spot a very suspicious-looking hand there...

No mass claiming here, even pseudo-mass claiming. What benefit would we get from answering this? I suspect it would only help the mafia figure out who's who.

In any case, I agree with the all-in bit, and it's also worth noting that someone can go all in against Iammars as well. I'd prefer it if Iammars tried it, but another can do it to him as well.

[Thesp]

Here's an unofficial votecount:

Iammars- 6 (Aelyn, Thesp, Dranko, Thok, Mastermind of Sin, EmpTyger)
Bamboo- 1 (iammars)

Not voting (5): Bamboomancer, Quagmire, rajrhcpfreak (2), kristocker

Alright, sorry that I hadn't used my last post, but I was waiting for LML to answer a question about my role.
1st: A full explanation of my role. I am 72 unsuited, the Beer Hand. Every night I can buy someone a beer. If that person is scum, then I die. If that person is inoccent, then we both live. The clarification I got is that if there is a doc and he protects me he will not protect me if I find scum. I also have unlynchability (You all feel bad for me). I have no idea what happens if you try to lynch me. I asked that too and LML said he couldn't tell me. I didn't mention this earlier becasue I wanted that answer too.
2nd: All-in. I will not be going all-in today. I am willing to take the risk of what happens if I am attempted to be lynched.
3rd: Plan for tonight.
--Me: Investigate Bamboomancer (My random OMGUS vote. I'm not really getting any scummy vibes off of anyone.)
--Doc: Protect me. This won't save me from hitting scum, but it will save me from the mafia killing me off to frame Bamboo.
Good luck town, and I'll see you tomorrow.
(And as for the six word post, as I said, I do better with restrictions I make up myself [see Bizzare Mafia])

This is almost certainly a total, utter farce. Not mentioning it earlier because you were waiting on a response? Please. This is a way for scum justify not going all in, and for them to provide some rationale for lynching today instead of using the all-in mechanic.

I also would like to see Bamboomancer go all in against Iammars. Think of it this way, Bamboomancer, it will save you the need to ++ to get chips. Furthermore, this will also test his unlynchability, as if he's telling the truth he won't die on the all in, and we'll have confirmed what might be quite a potent role. I

strongly

urge no one else to put the last vote on him until a

very

compelling case can be made for somone not all-inning Iammars, as I don't see it.

[Thesp]

I'm getting tired of all this from Bamboomancer right now. I think he's scum to the core, and my current guess is he's a serial killer, as I find it unusual his reluctance to all-in Iammars (who if he's scum, it would be unusual for him to be so strenuously resistant to the idea). In any case, here's my thoughts at the moment:

1) If Iammars actually is innocent, Bamboomancer is probably flaming scum. This would explain the reluctance to go all in against Iammars.

2) My next guess as to who's scum beyond Iammars and Bamboomancer is Dranko20, who has stopped posting here when all the good stuff started happening and Iammars started getting a serious bandwagon after him. Assuming Iammars turns out to be scum, it would be much harder for Dranko (if he's scum too) to post without either unvoting or pushing the vote harder, as his vote was already on Iammars.

3) At this point, I really don't care if Bamboomancer claims to have a power role, I want to see him go all in against Iammars. If Iammars is scum, that's great. If he's not, we confirm Iammars while saving us time talking about Bamboomancer. I would like to hear everyone else's thought on this, because it seems to me the general consensus is that we still want him to all-in, and I'd I'd like to know if it's still the case or I'm mistaken.

4) We need an official chip count soon, as we've not had one in quite some time. Thanks for taking the effort to do the unofficial one, Thok.

5) Happy Memorial Day, all.

[Thesp]

I'm rather ambivalent towards a mass claim, truth be told.

I was pretty sold on a Bamboomancer-Iammars-someone else mafia yesterday. I'm a little miffed at Bamboomancer for not claiming

an easily verified role

before going all in. Oh well.

Right now, I'm pretty sold on Dranko being scum. The only reason he's given me to doubt him right now is his opposition to Thok, whom I'd thought was a bit scummy as well. Raj was just about the most confirmed townie I could think of, so I seriously am disbelieving his "he was obviously the most scummy" bit. I'm more inclined to think Dranko was an SK.

I'm surprised to find three dead people, though, as I'd have guessed the doc would have protected our hider. Guess it didn't work, or she protected someone else.

Actually, I lied about being ambivalent towards a claim. Should we not go towards lynching Dranko (which I think is our best call, personally), I'd like to hear a claim out of Quagmire. He's said very, very little this game, and I'd like to hear something from him we can work with.

[Thesp]

Finish claiming.

Agreed. Quagmire?

[Thesp]

I hope you guys have some trust.

I just want to reiterate to you guys that if I gave out the little bonus I get when I woof woof a lot, then it's a hinderance to the town. So at this point, I don't want to reveal what I get.

I don't have any trust in you. I want to make it harder for you to lie and get out of it. There's a reason Aelyn capitalized the "FULLY" when referring to your need to claim. My guess right now is that you're scum with Dranko, or you're the serial killer, since it's becoming obvious that Dranko is almost certainly regular mafia.

[Thesp]

sorry I haven't been around, I should be more active now that I'm not on the road.

Excellent. Claim, please.

Computer access is back for me too. Happy happy joy joy!

[Thesp]

Reveal now. If you are lying, we need to catch you.

[Thesp]

EmpTyger, you're up.

[Thesp]

I can't be nightkilled if I bark in every post. I say that because I wanted the mafia to think I was a pretty powerful role, and they'd attempt to kill me, and nobody would die the next day. That and I'd be able to prove myself. But since I forgot my last post, the entire thing is moot. Damnit.

Am I the only one who thought this ability was obvious?

MoS has posted his results already, by the way. (Raj/Aelyn, both innocent). In any case, I'm more inclined to hear EmpTyger's results first, but I'll defer to my mason buddy now. I'm A-Q, Big Chick, and I know Aelyn to be innocent and we can communicate at night. This gives us:

Badguys

Dranko20

Goodguys

Aelyn
Thesp

Unconfirmed

Mastermind of Sin
EmpTyger
Thok
Quagmire

I'm hesitant to speculate as to who our other pro-town role is for fear of their death (instead of the SK's or a mafia's), though I have my guess.

EmpTyger, please claim your investigations.

[Thesp]

Actually, don't bother yet. Before Dranko20 gets on...

I'm all in against Dranko20

.

I believe I have more chips than him, I don't know.

[Thesp]

I rushed it so that Dranko wouldn't get a chance to go all in against whom he thought was the serial killer (assuming a 3-person mafia 1 SK setup which seems so prevalent around here).

If Dranko was mafia in league with Aelyn and I, wouldn't it be odd for Aelyn to counterclaim him today, rather than try and get a mislynch that would win it for us?

I'm also not sure why the "too many aces" is inherent lying. After all, more ace hands are named than any other hands (if I recall correctly). I do suspect MoS is lying, though. My bet is Quagmire is also mafia, and Thok is our friendly neighborhood serial killer. And EmpTyger's right, the SK must hit mafia tonight to have a chance at winning.

[Thesp]

Why again should the SK kill Aelyn or I? Wouldn't that be practically an auto-loss for him, as if the scum combined killed two townies, there would be 2 mafia, 1 SK and 1 townie? Bad for the SK. I'm beginning to think EmpTyger is mafia trying to (mis)direct the serial killer. As torn as I am on who to investigate, I will await for EmpTyger to claim his results before I make my decision.

[Thesp]

What the flaming heck you scummity scum?

I choose night protection.

I'd be dead otherwise and the investigation would likely be irrelevant (points to mod's post). Hooray for huge chipcounts.

[Thesp]

I'm all in against Mastermind of Sin.

That is all.

[Thesp]

Yeah, that'd be it.

And given the fact we have either a mafia with 2 people left and a serial killer, or a 2-person mafia and a 1-person mafia, or the unlikely scenario that there's only a 1-person mafia and a Serial Killer left make all you non-mason-types scum. No problems with the sharing the info at all.

[Thesp]

I'd pegged Thok as SK all the way. Wow. Oops.

Did you plan this game out, LML, or did you make up rules as you went along? It felt a lot like the latter.

Also, speaking with my wife now after the game, did the hider not get doc protection at all? Also, the all-in mechanic made being first to be on in the day a wee bit too important.

I had EmpTyger pegged as townie until the day where he tried to choreograph the killers' choices. Good job up until then. Still won anyways, good job.

Also, what was with Bamboomancer claiming his role was "quite powerful" when it wasn't (only confirmable), then not using it to confirm himself? Wow.

[Thesp]

Thesp:

<snip>I had EmpTyger pegged as townie until the day where he tried to choreograph the killers' choices. Good job up until then. Still won anyways, good job.<snip>

Thank you; I knew that would all but give me away. I actually was sorely tempted to claim scum, and reveal that I held *another* ace! But at that point the SK/second killing group might not be aware of the full situation, and I wanted to keep up the illusion for their sake. And as Aelyn and LML can attest to, historically my humorous attempts at claiming scum backfire...
I was a little suspicious of you Day 2 for pumping MoS for information. I’m not sure whether it was correct to end the day when you did, since we hadn’t gone all-in yet. But you were correct in that if we found the SK, we could win in then and there, so it was probably better to err on the side of haste. (In theory. In practice, all-in rewards and the endgame rule changed the math, and I never bothered to recalculate.)

And for the record, I realized afterwards that my “honestly, I don’t care what you’re ‘beginning to think’ about me” in [250] could be interpreted a lot more harshly than I intended, so I probably deserved your retort in [251]. I was intending to communicate that the game would not affected by whether you thought me protown or antitown; I should have said “…about my alignment” instead of “…about me” to make my meaning clear. I apologize for the disrespectful phrasing; it was entirely unintentional.

Thanks. I didn't mind being a little antagonistic during the claims process, with the mason claim and all. Aelyn set things up beautifully and gave us the best chance we could have. In retrospect, we probably should have all-inned you instead of MoS, because we were almost certain you were scum, but I didn't realize it until the "Game Over" post.

And I took no offense to your words, you were scum anyway.

Well played, flaming scummity scums.

The biggest concern I had with the setup was the

ad hoc

tailoring of mechanics. The drinks/tips thing should have never been introduced unless it was from the beginning design, and the appearance of changing of all-in rules and bonuses midstream felt unusual.

[Thesp]

(snip)
Again, I want to emphasize that I *did* have fun (and not just because I won!). I don’t mean this as complaining (given the outcome, I don’t really have a right to)- I’m just trying to give some feedback about an interesting mafia experience.

Quoted for truthery.