Mini 852- Crayola Catastrophe Game Over (Post 1158)

[Shanba]

Hello everyone, I'm the new Snow_Bunny


Broad brushstrokes view of the game:

The SOG wagon was generally a good one. Gets weird and scummy at the end.

The chamber wagon was terrible.



IN particular, I'm not a fan of budja's hop on to the chamber wagon. His unvote also doesn't make much sense: bear with me here, this is consistent. First, he votes chamber for the "not explaining votes" and the "paranoia about bandwagons" thing. Then he tells chamber that he doesn't care about whether this is chamber's meta. Then he unvotes with the explanation "that's one problem solved" after chamber is replaced.

Now, if he cared that it was a meta thing, presumably eh wouldn't vote in the first place, or he would unvote when chamber is replaced - but he's already claimed not to care, so that can't be the explanation. So why the unvote? "that's one problem solved, I guess" implies that now chamber is gone, his actions don't matter- but how does that make any sense? I'm not explaining myself particularly articulately here, but the upshot is that I don't think that is thinking is consistent and I think his vote on chamber looks opportunistic.

(as a sidenote, I would have been extremely angry if you guys had pulled what was essentially a policy lynch on chamber).

zazie is right about just about everything, but some of his lines of enquiry are pretty pointless (like asking green_dude if he really wanted his colour changed - I'm pretty sure he did!) In particular, though, I wanted to try and explain his attack on josh_lyman since I think he hasn't been entirely clear there: Josh's vote is for lurking, which josh explains as a jokevote - but in his post he says that it is only semi-random - which indicates that it can't be entirely random. I don't think this in and of itself is significant, but I do think the amount of time Josh spent debating on this and not talking about other, more important things is scummy.

Also, I hatehatehate the following post:

I agree. Posting "reminders" to yourself in a public thread seems ..... I don't know, less than Town. Surely you have the means to keep notes to yourself on your own computer, or perhaps a piece of paper, or maybe scrawling in crayons on the wall.... It just seems to be shitting up the thread for no apparent reason.

I really dislike chibosempai's approach to the SOG wagon. Looks like scum who smells blood in the water, but isn't certain it's going to come. Hence the early weak FoS and late vote.

Budja steps in for Josh_Lyman and that, to me, is fairly telling. In my experience, scum are far more likely to step in for each other when the case is weak (which it is) than if they think it's strong: not pointa rguing with the inevitable, but there is ample incentive to try and move lowgrade pressure away from a scumbuddy, since lowgrade can pretty quickly become high grade and then can escalate out of control.

Chibosempai, budja, josh. Also a little bit of pome, nachomamma in the mix for gut reasons I can't really articulate.

Vote: ChiboSempai

[Shanba]

um, when you're searching through the thread, you don't see the formatting anyway. But if you wish, I will refrain.

Elvis: chamber was replaced. Why would I buddy up to a player who isn't here any more?

And yes, I'm aware my predecessor hammered. From an objective standpoint, I think it was pretty damn scummy. I can't offer any defence, and I know it wasn't an action performed by scum, so there's not point in me talking about it. You're all perfectly welcome to discuss it.

Now, truth be told I'm a big fan of people defending each other, but that doesn't mean it can't be cscummy or indicative of scum. An action like that is a weak sign of a link between two players, which is more significant because I found both bof them scummy in their own right. But I note you didn't actually try to argue with my logic, you just attacked it for being divisive and called it BS.

As for it being divisive: I'm not going to vote anyone because I saw a link between them and someone I think is scummy. I'm going to vote the person I think is scummy. So, no, I'm not asking people not to defend each other.

Also, you're pretty clearly mischaracterising my attacks if you think I am discussing scumbuddies too much since that was the only time I mentioned scumbuddies in the whole thing.

[Shanba]

Chamber was replaced but the player slot is not dead. If you're saying chamber wagon was bad and he's town, then you're saying zazie is town too.

I concede the point.

If you are a fan of people defending each other what makes budja commenting on an attack on me a scummy thing? I'm sure there are lots of other instances throughout the game of people doing similar things. So what makes this one worthy of comment and condemnation above all others?

This is the way I tihnk about it:

it is beneficial for scum to protect their scumpartners. This stops them from being lynched. It is beneficial for town to protect people they believe are town. This makes it more likely for scum to be lynched. If someone is protecting scum, this therefore makes them more likely to be scum. If I see a defence of a player I believe to be scummy by a player I believe to be scummy, I see this as evidence of a likely link - with the caveta that until I know the alignment of the defended player it's not too significant.

As for why weak attacks are more significant:

Imagine the following situation. A well respected player generally considered to look pro-town delivers a strong case (with several observations you know are actually true) on a scumpartner. Are you going to defend your scumpartner?

What about the following scenario: a scummy looking player delivers a weak yet legitimate barb at your scumpartner. You know if players follow up on paying attention to him, he could be in trouble. Do you defend him?

I'd say it would be far more likely in the second case than in the first. Indeed, at times in the past I have deliberately held back the stronger parts of my cases in order to draw reactions to the weaker parts before revealing my full hand, and I have caught scum that way.

Also, as to why it shouldn't impact a townie's play: he should only be worried about being linked to scum if he believes he is defending scum. If he believes that, why is he defending him?

I agree you only mentioned the one horrible argument about scum buddies. Is that "too much"? You decide.

1) it's not a horrible argument. I've given my side of this, you have yet to give yours. Please do so.
2) it's not the only reason I suspect these players.

I was more thinking that I didn't like your comments because of this part of my arguments:

noticing a connection between two players should not be the basis for thinking they're both scum

Which isn't what I said, so this is bull.

And everyone else is either riding EK's coattails or referencing the hammer. I'd like everyone to have more suspicions than just me even if I do get lynched today, so that there's some room for some actual analysis. Top 2 scummiest players please, everyone.

[Shanba]

As a sidenote, I don't think chibosempai asking me to claim is rolefishing.

[Shanba]

Yeah, that's pretty wrong, since I was condemning budja's role on the chamberwagon (and in particular his unvote, which is weird at least partly because he never picks up on it again. I mean, no one else does either but no one else had said that they were completely dismissing the idea of a policy lynch and were just lynching him because he was scummy and that was that.)

Also, I gave about a paragraph and a half detailing why I didn't like Joshlyman and two why I didn't like budja. I'm slightly shocked that you're asking me this.

What do you mean I haven't given my side? Didn't this start with my side... What is it you need me to explain?

Why you think my logic about the connection is wrong. So far you've just said it's BS, which is fair enough if you're just giving an opinion, but you're actively trying to discredit me so I want a little bit more detail than that.

[Shanba]

Um, I'm actually primarily suspicious of Chibo, hence the vote. I am more defending myself against EK (and defending my attack on EK against EK) than making a case against her.

Are any of you actually paying attention at this point?

[Shanba]

Shanba, you're big post is practically trying to tell people how to play the game, or an analysis on common styles trying to metagame people in a general fashion. Your posts are so overly analytical for no apparent reason imo. That whole giant post was practically just a response to someone's opinion on a tie between two players shouldn't be seen as scummy right? Everyone's entitled to their own opinions and playstyles but it seems that everytime there is any more suspicion or disagreement with your posts you write even longer, more intricate posts it almost seems like your just trying to confuse people and get people thinking about other topics.

This is just bullshit.

My big post is not telling people how to play the game. It's laying out how I play the game. And overly analytical? What the hell does that even

mean

? If you can't follow my posts, then I'm sorry, but I'm afraid that's a problem with you and not me. I've never had anyone ever have that issue with me before.

And yes, when people disagree with me, I refute them.

I think I ought to explain my playing philosophy at this point. My goal is always to understand the "why" behind a scumtell. Whenever I see an action described as scummy, my first instinct is to ask why it's scummy. Why would scum do it? If that can be worked out, then the scumtell can be applied more accurately. This has led me to believe some things are scumtells which would likely be considered controversial by the wider community: in those cases, I lay down the logic of why I think it's scummy.

After reading that long post I almost forget why I even voted you. All I was thinking was trying to dissect your post and almost starting a side discussion about it, but this isn't the time nor place to do so. Elvis is also right that it's essentially a WIFOM situation.

And everyone else is either riding EK's coattails or referencing the hammer. I'd like everyone to have more suspicions than just me even if I do get lynched today, so that there's some room for some actual analysis. Top 2 scummiest players please, everyone.

Since you're suggesting most of us find you scummy, from a townie point of view, who is the other person you believe we should find most suspicious (if you can only pick one)?

Um, it's a fact that most of you find me scummy. I'm not suggesting anything.

As for who you should consider scummy... I pray this was some kind of sarcasm here.

You

should know

who

you consider scummy. My concern is that this day ends and the onyl thing you have to go on tomorrow is "well, everyone thought shanba was scummy. Except budja. So who's scum?"

EBWOP

Elaborating on this part further from my last post:

"Now Shanba comes in replacing her and has to rid this suspicion on him (since it seems most people were discontent especially with her hammer) and he's doing a very poor job of it imo, only proving my suspicions thus further. "

Not only is he not doing the best job of ridding the suspicion imo, but it feels that he is actively trying hard to rid this suspicion and push it onto others, why would he make this such a priority? By just being a legit town player, everyone else should be able to pick up on this and worry about a possibly mislynch. However, he has to actively fix his reputation for a reason... why? Because he's scum.

Why do I have it as a priority to catch scum?

I just re-read some more of his posts and found some even more things to be worrisome about... In Shanba's first post, right off the bat (though it is a catch-up post, but still...) he mentions suspicion on 5 different players. Then, when looking at all of his posts, especially considering he mentions how it is scummy to have connections with any other players, he strictly does not mention who he thinks ISN'T scum in any of his posts, and instead only mentions who he is suspicious of. This could easily just be his playstyle which is completely legitimate imo, but with how much he went into detailing the situations for covering other players, I get the feeling that he wants to drill the idea of no connections being a pro-town movement into everyone's minds then act specifically that way so everyone naturally believes he is town.

Isn't this almost exactly the opposite of what EK was accusing me of?

I don't need to lay out in detail why I think players are town. I'm not trying to convince anyone they're town. I am trying to convince people that the players I believe are scum are, indeed, scum. That's no less than any townie should do.

The more I read into his posts, even without that many (though you can continue from the damage Snow_Bunny did), I would be down right shocked if Shanba didn't flip Mafia if lynched.

The case against me is as follows:

Unspecified Snow_bunny scumminess
Snow_Bunny's hammer
I'm buddying up to chamber
I used a scumtell that EK and others disagree with
I've laid out too much detail on who I think is scum and not enough on who I think is town?

I have a question for you people: what did scum gain by snow_bunny's hammer?

[Shanba]

I have a question for you people: what did scum gain by snow_bunny's hammer?

You really need us to answer this? Ok...

Snow, unless she has some role-revealing role, would not have known that SOG was Jester. If she was scum, which most of us believe she was/you are, scum didn't really "gain" anything. Rather, they lost something they're glad to be rid of; a voter, who could assist in lynching them, and a vocal player (remembering they/y'all had no idea he wasn't scum), who could build up cases against them.

See, the more I think about it, the less I think this really holds. I firmly believe that by that point the semioldguy lynch was inevitable. If this is the case, then surely all the town lost was time. The scum gained, in essence, a slightly shorter day: an advantage, but not one that merits the risk snowbunny is taking by hammering.

[Shanba]

So you would recommend to the town to lynch you immediately if Shanba turns up pro-town, right? If not, why not. Being that confident in scum or not-scum suggests something more than just a vanilla townie.

Actually, I disagree with this. See Glork's play for example. Players often deliberately overstate their degree of confidence. Plus, some people do just become really convinced they're right.

I forbid any automatic lynching of sempai if I get lynched.

[Shanba]

Perhaps EK is successfully buddying up to me (but why do that when she could simply get me lynched instead) but I'm going very cold on thinking she is scum. I'm cooling on chibosempai too. I may need to give this game another once over.

Unvote, Vote: budja

[Shanba]

unvote vote budja

Cause nothing is more fun than replacing into a pressure cooker environment. I should know.

Also, I kind of expect my old budja vote ot go through anyway. I dont know how uptight the mod is about bolding.

There was an aspect of Zazier's back and forth with nachomamma that interested me and I want to go check it out

[Shanba]

Unvote

as promised. But I still want more content.

@Snow Bunny:

1) To me, vote patterns (how much you vote) are null-tells. You can vote for one person because you find them the scummiest, or you can vote for multiple because you believe in pressure voting.

2) Did you read my bit on SoG's hypocrisy? If so, what do you think about it?

3) Not necessarily stretching. Pointing FoSes without votes down suggests a fear to have to explain a vote.

4) Self-preservation isn't scummy either. If you are a townie and are trying to avoid being lynched, defending yourself and starting a bandwagon against someone else is preventing a mislynch, which is pro-town.

You voted Josh for more content, but here you unote him, eventhough you want more content? Yep, needs some explanations.

And why did you respond before SoG did?

But did I ask for posts or content? Hmm...

You asked for posts

Exactly... >.>

I asked for posts, he gave me posts. So I kept my word...

Basically, this exchange reminds me of SoG's exchange with zazier early in the game about the post colour thign (was it SoG? I think it was. I'm not going to go check though.)

Nachomamma claims to have done it to get more content from Josh. But then he unvotes despite not getting a lot more content from Josh. I guess I just don't get why you would specify an objective measure in this case rather than a subjective one: unless it was simply busywork/you wanted to be able to have an out later. I mean, because he

almost

did what nachomamma wanted (and exactly what nacho said), nacho unvotes?

I'm leaning towards scummy over poor play. I think budja is still a better lynch though.

:/

Shanba is still scummiest, but slightly less scummy for the "pressure cooker scenario" statement; that was his best defense yet.

You what?

That wasn't a defence. I want to hear your logic here, because this is a really odd idea.

As is sociopath's; though I have to admit some irony there. I've said almost the exact same thing in a game where I was town (I think it was Rishi's election mafia, but I'm not sure). But I'm not going to push a case on him because I don't think he's scum and I believe doing so could be misleading.

[Shanba]

Shanba, honestly, you could warp that no matter what words I used in that situation. I used an objective marker so I could quite literally force him to post more; in asking for more content, I could've guaranteed I would have been ignored. I'm a bit confused as to why this is so scummy, but... meh.

It's not the words you used, as such. It's that you were trying to get him to do something (i.e. post content) but despite the fact he didn't do it, you unvoted. And this is because you put down such rigid criteria. I reckon I might be getting upset over nothing, but such inconsistencies always draw my attention: I still don't understand

why

you would use objective criteria at all in such a context.

[Shanba]

Shanba, honestly, you could warp that no matter what words I used in that situation. I used an objective marker so I could quite literally force him to post more; in asking for more content, I could've guaranteed I would have been ignored. I'm a bit confused as to why this is so scummy, but... meh.

It's not the words you used, as such. It's that you were trying to get him to do something (i.e. post content) but despite the fact he didn't do it, you unvoted. And this is because you put down such rigid criteria. I reckon I might be getting upset over nothing, but such inconsistencies always draw my attention: I still don't understand

why

you would use objective criteria at all in such a context.

Well then, put yourself in my position. What would you have said if you wanted more content, and when would you have unvoted?

I would have asked for more content and unvoted when I had subjectively decided he had delivered more content or whne I needed my vote to vote for someone scummier.

There's nothing wrong with subjectivity.

I'm dropping this here, though. I don't think it's scummy any more since it doesn't appear to have been a ploy of any kind: I think you would have done it the way you did as scum or town.

[Shanba]

how can you be so sure that shanba is scum. I mean i agree her role from snow bunny is suspicious but i am not 100% sure she is scum because of that. The only way you can be so sure is if either you are his scum partner or you are a cop and investigated him. otherwise there is no way to be so sure...

It's a stylistic choice. Many good players choose to exaggerate their degree of certainty over a belief that someone is scum for effect (Glork comes to mind.) Others choose not to. I do it myself.

I think the case against me is overblown. I think ChiboSempai has now descended into full on tunnel mode is falling prey to confirmation bias (notably when he accused me of slipping: elvis_knits has already explained how that could never possibly be scummy.) I had begun to think we were moving on but it seems not: if you're still going to prosecute the case against me, people, then I want a response to some of my defences. Notably this one:

I have a question for you people: what did scum gain by snow_bunny's hammer?

You really need us to answer this? Ok...

Snow, unless she has some role-revealing role, would not have known that SOG was Jester. If she was scum, which most of us believe she was/you are, scum didn't really "gain" anything. Rather, they lost something they're glad to be rid of; a voter, who could assist in lynching them, and a vocal player (remembering they/y'all had no idea he wasn't scum), who could build up cases against them.

See, the more I think about it, the less I think this really holds. I firmly believe that by that point the semioldguy lynch was inevitable. If this is the case, then surely all the town lost was time. The scum gained, in essence, a slightly shorter day: an advantage, but not one that merits the risk snowbunny is taking by hammering.

[color]As this seems to be the sticking point for most players.[/color]

[Shanba]

I was going to wait until my lynch was inevitable before posting this, as a sort of goodbye and here is my final will and testament post, but then it occurred to me: what's the point? I'm self-censoring and that's not bad and unhelpful. I believe strongly in being as honest as possible in mafia (even when scum! It's so much easier to appear convinced about a townie looking scummy if you honestly believe his actions are scummy so++town points if you do that, haha.) These are my honest thoughts on the game, and they're a little different from when I replaced in:

Firstly, I'm pretty sure elvis_knits and chibosempai are town. elvis moreso than chibo for a slew of slightly complicates reasons and gut reads. However, my reads on chibo and elvis are based on their positions on me: it very strongly feels like btoh are actually thinking and trying to work out whether I'm scummy even if both are coming to different conclusions. I think Chibo is slightly scummier partly because I thought he was scummier to start with and partly because it still occurs to me that it could be a scum ploy to distract attention from himself by attacking me in an over the top manner. But their approaches feel like what a good townie would do.

I was wavering on Budja too, but Yankee's entrance is ridiculously underwhelming (nice bland wagon vote) and contributes to the deep sense of unease I had a bout that player spot. I'm not sure he's in my top spot still though, as GreenDude is up there too, but I'll get back to that later.

I still think elvis_knits and Budja/Yankee are linked. Considering the lack of content generally that Budja gave us, it seems incongruous that he would choose that point to touch on. There's just an awkardness to the exchange which feels like he is talking about a scumbuddy. I can't put it any clearer than that, except to say that I have seen that sort of thing before (where Yos defended DGB, I'll look up the link if you like). I think it's worth pursuing IF elvis turns up scum (and not the other way round).

While Pom does appear to be thinking about the case and legit scumhunting now, I can't shake the feeling it's just a ploy, especially given how little she had done before. It's like she knows fo form's sake she has to be indecisive.

SocioPath looks p. damn town to me with his "attack me" stunt. I wouldn't lynch him any time soon. I haven't seen anything else really, though, that makes him look as town as people are saying he does... which makes me worry a little bit that there's a bandwagon effect going on here, especially as a lot of the players seem to be on the same page and think similrly about this game.

I'm less convinced about zazie's towniness than I was when I replaced in. I find playstyles like hers hard to read, and while I was originally reading chamber's replace out as a towntell the more I think about it the more it seems it's actually a nulltell. Still wouldn't put her in the top half of the scumminess list.

Greendude has offered a bland, blanket: Shanba is scummy quote with no real backing. He also hasn't offered much content in this game and even when active was active lurking somewhat. Player slot deserves more pressure and is about equal with Budja on my list.

The others I don't really have a decent read on. I'm slightly uneasy about Kirby for reasons I can't quite express, and slightly happy with nachomamma.

THEORY (you can stop reading here if you like, as this isn't all that game relevant:)Now, I'd normally be a bit cautious about posting who I thought was town, as it's easy fro scum to manipulate that information. BUt in this particular game I don't think it matters, for a couple of reasons. First, I am very likely to be lynched anyway: it doesn't matter whether scum know who I think is town as they can't use that when I'm dead. Second, if I can contribute to a feeling that a player is town; well, if I believe in my reads, why shouldn't I want town to think townies are town (if you see what I mean?) Games can be won as much by isolating several town players as anything else. So in a game where I have strong town reads I want the rest of the townies to know and acknowledge this.

Aside: I want this to be a relevant reference point until the end of the game. For those who are convinced I am scum or otherwise, it makes sense to drill me for as much information about the state of the game as possible before lynching me. If you have any particular issues you want me to address, I suggest you ask me about them.

TLDR: Long post is long.

[Shanba]

Post 633 (Not a fan of quote pyramids)
Anyway, yes, there is. You state that you asked for posts, so that it would lead to more content. But in the second quote, you state that you see posts, but no content (before Josh gave the (almost) five posts).

I asked for posts because posts are measurable. I wanted content because content is good. I didn't ask for content because content is immeasurable, and I didn't want posts without content because they're useless.

By asking for posts rather than content, don't you risk getting posts without content?

Mmf.

There's a lot of irrelevant stuff from zazie this time. Like asking pome what a "sitting" is. Look it up in a dictionary. I don't really like this style, it just clogs my brain trying to process it all.

I'll check Nacho's link to see if the meta holds, but I'm still in favour of lynching Yankee.

[Shanba]

Yet if he had just bullshitted 5 posts off in a hurry, would you have lifted your vote since he had fulfilled your condition? If not, why did you lift your vote when he hadn't given enough content by your own admission?

[Shanba]

Imagine that was red.[/color=red]

[Shanba]

Is it not possible to combine all your thoughts into one post please? So annoying having like 4-10 posts in a row everytime you post. Also, I dont believe Shanba is Scum, i think people are just anxious to get to day 2 and are starting to vote the person with most votes.

No, they're doing the townie thing which is to ensure we have a lynch before deadline. They're also, incidentally, doing the scummy thing which is to ensure we have a lynch before deadline.

This is a very good reason for town to get sorted pre-deadline

[Shanba]

Here are my reads coded by strength and by certainty (the difference being that certainty takes into account the paranoia side of things:

Yankee: Scum, fairly certain.
GreenDude: LurkerScum, fairly certain.
Zazie: Scum, uncertain.
Pome: SCum, uncertain.

Kirby: More or less no read.
Nacho: More or less no read. Still don't like the thing I keep bringing up. Schizophrenic about it really. Even if it is a tell though, it's weak.

Elvis:Town, fairly certain
Chibo: Town, uncertain.
Sociopath: Town, fairly to slightly certain.

There've now been multiple bandwagons in this game, and I think players would be well rewarded to check them out properly.

[Shanba]

With deadline fast approaching, I'll just claim now, since I'm a VT anyway.

On greendude (from my analysis post):

Greendude has offered a bland, blanket: Shanba is scummy quote with no real backing. He also hasn't offered much content in this game and even when active was active lurking somewhat. Player slot deserves more pressure and is about equal with Budja on my list.

[Shanba]

The vote count on the last page is still accurate as the only vote that moved, moved back. Which means I am still the lynch candidate for today.

As such, I offer up this plea: don't forget my analysis/etc and don't let my death be in vain! Analyse the wagons!