Mini 188: Texas Holdem Mafia - GAME OVER!

[EmpTyger]

It seems like scum can't use the all-in effectively. (I'm guessing at what happens if scum goes all-in, but the wording implies it's not good for them in any case.) So it seems that the best strategy is instead of lynching someone, have them go all-in against someone. If there are multiple scum groups, that could conceivably confuse things, but that would be against the odds.

For example, let's say the town suspects A. When it gets to the point where he would be lynched, have A go all-in against some B. If A is scum, then the all-in must kill a scum. If A is innocent, then there is a chance B is scum, which saves B; if B is innocent, then A is dead- but that is what would have happened had A been lynched naturally. This way, we have a confirmed innocent, and another opportunity to lynch. The only thing to keep in mind is if A and B are both scum, but even in this case the town gets at least 1 scum killed.

Any other thoughts on all-in strategy?

Random

vote: Maximus

, chosen amongst those who haven't posted and don't already have a vote.

[EmpTyger]

Oooh... very clever mechanic, mod. No reason to prod lurkers.

Iammars:
I don’t think it’s wise to be discussing role details like that... and honestly I’m a bit leery by how unsure you sound about your role...
Next time you post, could you clarify your postrestriction (unless you can think of a reason not to)? Was it imposed overnight or during the day? Do you tell whether you will still be restricted tomorrow? Don’t feel you need to burn a post just to reply to me.

Bamboo:
Circumstantial, but interesting point about Iammars nonetheless...
However, as above I don’t think it’s a good idea just yet to reveal role details about all-in abilities, and certainly not before discussing further.

Maximus:
Temporarily assuming mucking to be a game mechanic, I can only think of one instance when it might be advantageous for the town to muck a hand, and even then I’m not too sure. I think that the knowledge of the folded hands is too potentially valuable to throw away.

Aelyn:
Slightly contradicting myself here, but may I ask you whether there is anything in your role which would affect your chip count?

[EmpTyger]

<snip>For the record, the "error" in my first post was very deliberate - I was seeing if I'd get one or two chips.

Hm. In that case, Maximus, is there anything in your role which would affect your chip count? Because Aelyn didn’t get credit for his doublepost- but you did. I’m wondering how Bamboo’s “glitch” will be treated.


Bamboo:

Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 7:10 pm

Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 7:11 pm

Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 7:32 pm

I’m no technical expert on posting, but that seems an awful long time between the 2nd and 3rd to merely be a glitch. Since I’m not doing anything better with my vote,

unvote: Maximus

and

vote: Bamboomancer

. (At least until I see how the mod treats it.)

[EmpTyger]

[If I post and it doesn’t go through, and I have to repost, can I get 2 chips?]

Aelyn:
If your experiments were successful, you would have innocently gained a high chip total. And I don’t see how your most recent experiment differed from any previous doubleposting. You didn’t reveal that your first experiment was even deliberate until I questioned you about it. The desire to find out “rapidly” makes me think that *you* wanted to be the one to do the experimenting and thus pad your chipcount; had you been patient, it might have been revealed naturally and you would have lost your chance. Moreover, I still don’t see any advantage for innocents to have a high chip total, because it’s useless for scum to all-in. Perhaps there’s another mechanic involving chips, but I can’t think of anything obvious and I don’t feel like positing one. So, with the best use of chips I can see being to allow scum to protect themselves,

vote: Aelyn

.


Thesp:
I had noted that Maximus’s [14-15] doublepost earned 2 chips, while Aelyn’s [20-21] earned 1. I was trying to find out why the chip totals weren’t matching the postcounts. I thought there might be a role that imposed a chip restriction or bonus or something, or it might be inherent to a role. In any case, the mod’s explanation seems to have cleared it up.

Just to clarify- I think the only details about roles which should be revealed are those which would be apparent from chipcounts (or votecounts or posting habits, as it happens). In other words, stuff the town would be figuring out soon enough anyhow.

(And compare how I investigated this question to Aelyn’s method...)


kristocker:
I was thinking that the chip mechanic might naturally guard against lurking?


Thok:
Not only do I think it makes sense for Iammars to reveal his postrestriction immediately, but I think it would have been quite suspicious had he revealed it later. Why do you not think Iammars could be the big blind?
And if there is a second blind with a similar mechanic, I’m not sure why they would not have come forward already.

[EmpTyger]

Just realized I forgot to unvote Bamboomancer before voting Aelyn. No multiple votes for me, just forgetfulness. Just to clarify:

unvote: Aelyn
unvote: Bamboomancer

vote: Aelyn

Sorry mod.
[This is intended as an edit, FWIW- no chip expected]

[EmpTyger]

I think I’m a little confused about chip strategy, and want to rethink before I do further analysis based on it.

Unvote: Aelyn

in the meantime.


Bamboo:

Here's the deal. I'm not scum. I will prove that by going all in in a second if that's the town's wish.

You seem to be overemphasizing some guilty appearance held of you. I hadn’t thought you had anything [more than any other as yet] to prove, but you seem to think otherwise.

<snip>As of right now the scummiest people I can come up with are dranko and iammars and neither for good reasons.

What are the “bad” reasons, if I might ask?

<snip>I think if there was going to be some kind of "fold" by now then it'd have happened, so I don't think we should expect any events.

Isn't folding the equivalent of death?

[EmpTyger]

I've heard several say that it's advantageous for a townsperson to have a high chip count, but I'm still not following why. Here's the way I'd been reasoning regarding chip counts:

The best use of the all-in mechanic is that the first person about to be lynched can all-in another, as I outlined in [12] and Bamboo repeated [51], which no one has presented any objection to. But this strategy doesn't depend on chip counts. Let's say A is the most suspicious, and B is the second most suspicious. If A has more chips than B, the town can lynch A unless they challenge B; if A has less than B, vice versa. The chip totals don't really matter.

So the only uses I could see for accumulating chips were to "daytime vigilante" (in a manner independent of the above strategy), for scum trying somehow to protect themselves, or for some role-based reason which could be protown or antitown. I think the first reason unlikely, especially with the cop dead, and it's pointless to speculate about the third. I saw scum as having the most to lose with a low chip count, and the town not really gaining much with a high count.

Could someone explain some town benefit to a high chip count that I've been missing in my analysis?

[EmpTyger]

Sorry, been a little busy and don’t have the best access- composing this quickly and don’t have time to read over things as well as I’d like to.


Thesp:

The best use of the all-in mechanic is that the first person about to be lynched can all-in another, as I outlined in [12] and Bamboo repeated [51], which no one has presented any objection to. But this strategy doesn't depend on chip counts.

I've italicized the part of your statement with which I take issue. The strategy

does

depend on chip counts, unless you plan on only going after people with high chip counts. This is, in what you mention in the second paragraph, a sort of "daytime vig", albeit not a voluntary one. Again, the ideal scenario is one where everyone has a similar (or equal) number of chips. This not withstanding, if townies are the ones who have the most chips, then if they are ever pressured to be lynched, they can have a greater range of targets to choose from. I'm also loathe to dissuade people from posting, as people's posts are the best way to catch scum. That being said, I do think that judging quality in people's posts is

more

important in this mafia game than in most. Contentless posts won't do.

I’m pretty sure my second paragraph showed how chip count is immaterial? The all-in mechanic used that way can test an additional 1-2 people/day without drawback. If the person threatened with a lynch cannot all-in the next most suspicious player, then that next most suspicious player must be able to all-in the player threatened by the lynch.

Consider the possibilities of innocence/guilt with A and B. Let’s say A was about to be lynched, and thus is pressured to all-in B, the next-most suspicious player. In each case assume A’s chips >= B’s chips, thus A is pressured to go all-in against B.
A=i, B=i: A dies. The town, which would have lynched innocent A, instead confirms B as innocent and lynches someone other than these 2 most suspicious players.
A=g, B=i: A dies (likely from lynching). Nothing really can be concluded, but at the very least a scum is killed.
A=i, B=g: B dies. The town kills scum and still has the day’s lynch.
A=g, B=g: B dies (or A dies from lynching). Nothing really can be concluded, but at the very least a scum is killed.

The same thing but with A’s chips < B’s chips, thus the town instead pressures B to go all-in against A.
A=i, B=i: B dies. The town, which would have lynched innocent A, instead confirms A as innocent and lynches someone other than these 2 most suspicious players.
A=g, B=i: A dies. The town kills scum and still has the day’s lynch.
A=i, B=g: B dies (likely from lynching). Nothing really can be concluded, but at the very least a scum is killed.
A=g, B=g: A dies (or B dies from lynching). Nothing really can be concluded, but at the very least a scum is killed.

The outcomes are essentially the same, especially considering that the alignments of A and B can’t be known before the fact.

As for the possibility of a cop being able to perform a vigilante kill, the successful all-in would expose the cop just as much as him naturally revealing himself.

Can you provide any specific, hypothetical example in which the fact that A’s chipcount > B’s would matter? I’m not seeing it, and I’m surprised I’m the only one.

Though I do agree about contentless posting- I want to reread the thread with that in mind.


Mod:
Can that cocktail waitress bring me a glass of warm milk? I’ll tip a chip if necessary.

[EmpTyger]

I claim total ignorance of any game-related effect ordering a drink had; my motive for doing such should become obvious at the end of my post. I can think of 2 possibilities of game effects involving ordering drinks, one of which quite worries me...
I’m unsure what is the correct play at this point. Thok, you claimed that you were just experimenting; can you say anything to clear this up?


The disagreement over all-in strategy honestly seems like a genuine difference of opinion, so even though I believe Thesp is wrong, I don’t really think that that implies he’s antitown. What concerns me more are those who stayed completely absent from this topic- figuring out chipcount and all-in strategies is clearly important.

Summarizing:
kristocker, Dranko, and Thesp thought townies having high chipcount was important.
EmpTyger, Thok, Aelyn thought relative levels were immaterial.
(Aelyn and Dranko had earlier experimented with boosting their chipcounts.)
Iammars has the postrestriction, so it’s understandable why he’s been absent.
Quagmire gave an excuse for being absent, but did post in other threads on Sunday.
rajrhcpfreak, Bamboo, Maximus have posted without taking a stand one way or another.

I’ll lurker

vote: Quagmire

, but I would like to hear more from the last 5 names above.


Bamboo:

I've actually seen it, for the most part, as daytime vigilante. It's not so much as not needing to have it but keeping scum from freezing the town out from having that ability if needed.<snip>

Scum cannot effectively use the all-in. If a scum is involved in an all-in, a scum will die.

I get what you're saying. I just don't want to be pointed at as scum simply because i'm vocal.

You seem to keep being afraid of being thought of as scum...


rajrhcpfreak:

i do like the proposed A/B mechanic but there is a greater chance of revealing the cop/doc, right?

It’s a lower chance than when lynching.

then couldn't the mafia go all in on each other and make it look like they vig. one of the mafia but in reality they just sacrificed one of thier own to get further in the game.

Absolutely. This possibility must be kept in mind.


Aelyn:
We could use FoSs to indicate pseudovotes, but honestly I think that it might get too complex to keep straight.

[EmpTyger]

So the drinks have no game effect (besides losing a tipped chip)?


I’m a bit concerned by the lurking- people need to state their suspicious, or the town will not have as much to work with on future days. I don’t think it’s time to start claiming.

Iammars’s [96] seemed very suspicious, but I’d rather focus on those not contributing than begin evaluating claims. However, does anyone see any harm if everyone reveals whether they hold a good hand or a bad hand? (I believe Q7 is the dividing line- it’s the lowest good hand.) While I don’t think this is how the mafia is determined, I can’t eliminate the possibility, and testing this hypothesis seems rather harmless. (To spell it out, I have a good hand.)


Iammars:
Don’t waste a post just yet, but next time you post please clarify what you meant in that post. At the very least, StryykerVerde isn’t in this game, so, huh???

[EmpTyger]

I do still think it’s a mistake to focus on Iammars’s claim before everyone else posts (and Iammars is most guilty of causing this to happen). But because of his restriction I wanted to make sure this I asked something, before he might use up another post by responding to Thesp. So if Iammars is already going to be elaborating, I’d like to also know what the connection is between his role and his hand, since I can’t see any.
Compare:
KJ -> Kojak -> cop.
72 -> beer hand -> [Iammars’s ability]


Mod:
It’s past Wednesday, and I wouldn’t say that posting’s picked up. Can we have prods, particularly for Quagmire?

[EmpTyger]

blech- think I lost a post, and am too tired to rewrite. Sorry if this doubleposts. Basically:
Iammars: Whenever you do respond, also say what the connection is between your role and your ability. But watch your postcount.
Town: Don’t focus on Iammars to the point that others get ignored.
Mod: Can we get prods, particularly of Quagmire?

[EmpTyger]

Doubleblech- that was an awfully long time for a post not to show up.

Moreover, I misanalyzed. (I was afraid that a relevant relative chipcount scenario existed. If Iammars used up his 5 posts, he couldn’t go all-in. If a lurker had < 5 chips, they couldn’t go all-in against him. However, this morning I realized how foolish this strategy would be for the mafia. Those would become so suspicious that the fact that they wouldn’t be able to all-in each other wouldn’t be applicable: they would be susceptible to all-ins other players, simply being lynched, and would still have to deal with all-ins the following day.) That’s what I get for posting so late.

Anyhow, I retract what I said in [100/101] about t being a mistake to focus on Iammars.

Unvote: Quagmire

,

Vote: Iammars

.

[EmpTyger]

I don’t think I understand Iammars’s ability, but with only 1 post left I really doubt he’ll be able to clear away suspicions. I have a lot of problems with his last post- he hasn’t mentioned whether or on who he used this ability last night. He seems to be trying to make the least, not the most, of the few posts he has. I’m ready to move on to pseudovote discussion.

I’m not confident of chip totals, but I believe that Quagmire has fewer and Dranko and kristocker have the same amount (4). I suppose Dranko’s the next most suspicious, but that doesn’t mean much since Quagmire hasn’t contributed at all. My pseudovote would depend on whether Quagmire will post/be prodded/be replaced.

And I guess it’s too late for my good hand/bad hand idea- if it mattered, the mafia aren’t going to admit to it at this point.

[EmpTyger]

I’m going to

Unvote: Iammars

. Not because I think he’s innocent, but because I don’t think a lynch is currently the correct action. I think Iammars should go all-in, while he still has a post and is able to. At this point, if Iammars is to challenge, he can only go all-in against Quagmire, kristocker, or Maximus [who hasn’t posted in over 10 days!]. (Though the last 2 depend on when the chip goes on the stack, but theoretically it should be 5 vs. 5- could you verify this, mod?)


Bamboomancer:

<snip>He has one post left, let's let him have it. Then I think we should lynch him.

Um, what about all-in strategy? You yourself totally already said otherwise at least twice. Any reason why you’re deviating now?

I’m on the list also; is anybody not? I spot a very suspicious-looking hand there...


kristocker:

<snip>I second the request that Iammars use his last post of the day to tell us why a 7/2 hand is pro-town.

Actually, the request was originally that Iammars tell this whenever he made his second-to-last post, which he didn’t really do. Given the context, this feels like an attempt to rescue Iammars from going all-in. Or at least push you (after you reply to this observation) out of range.


rajrhcpfreak:
Something about your posts is bothering me. Things like

i just checked my role and i relized that the better hands would be pro town.<snip>

The “sudden discovery” of new information.

its hard for me to beleive that scum would get such a hard role to play. and the connection of the beer and the drinks being bought makes me think that he is telling the truth.

1) He could, um, be lying about his role. Scum are known to do that.
2) Thok, not Iammars, was the first to try purchasing a drink. Iammars in fact seemed to be ignorant (or be feigning ignorance) of any-drink related effects in [96]. Perhaps it is a conspiracy to give Iammars a claim once the drink mechanic is established, but:
3) The mod already denied that the drinks had a game role. Metagaming, but I think it’s more likely Iammars saw a way to give himself a halfway plausible role.

However, yes, doublevoting has been modconfirmed. So even if you are mafia, you still have the doublevoting ablility, and the hands that I can think of which might have that ability aren’t low. So I’m not sure what to make of this.


Thok:

I'd need to see at least a couple more hands before I believe the poor hand equals mafia theory. I've also suggested that a nickname determines a person's role. (For example KJ=Kojak was a cop).

It seems no one else has a bad hand- or rather that no one is willing to admit to holding one, which is just as telling.
If Iammars is scum and “beer hand” rather than “Hammer” etc., your instigating of drink orders will become rather suspicious... as you yourself say, I’d expect the nickname to connect with the role.


Quagmire:
[113] seemed like a parrot to boost your chipcount. You have any comments about anyone besides Iammars?


Maximus:
10 days?

[EmpTyger]

To update: at this point the only person Iammars can legally all-in is Quagmire. (Assuming that the transition from Maximus to MoS happens clearly.) So on the basis of there being no one else, and since I see no downside, I'll pseudovote Quagmire for Iammars to go all-in against. (Or however we're doing this.)


kristocker:

<snip>Okay, I don't get it. By asking Iammars again to do something he didn't do when asked I am trying to rescue him? I want to know how a 7-2 hand can benefit the town. We have basically all agreed that good hands are pro-town. I want to know how this hand can help the town.

Thesp, I don't think someone should go all-in against Iammars. How would we choose who it would be? If we randomly choose, a power role might die to a townie - not that I think Iammars is a townie, but you get the drift. We might ask for volunteers, but then, as previously stated, scum could simply vig one of their own to try to prove innocence.<snip>

I see a big difference between his using his second-to-last post and his last post. Someone going all-in against Iammars won’t reveal anything; scum dies no matter who goes all-in against them. And this was why I found it suspicious that you were trying to get Iammars to use up his last post- that action would preclude him from going all-in against someone else. Hence “rescue”.


Thok:

<snip>I sort of want to see Bamboomancer go all in on Iammars; if Iammars is scum, he might have been trying to use his role claim to "clear" Bamboomancer. (And Bamboomancer has been fairly defensive this game in any case). But, I'm not sure that my request accomplishes anything. Any thoughts on this?

See above. It doesn’t.

EmpTyger, one reason that nobody's claimed a bad hand is that most of us don't want to reveal information to scum this early in the game.<snip>

Honestly, I fail to see the danger in revealing that general type of information. In fact, I think that mafia loses more by having to making decisions about their claim before the nature of roles becomes more obvious. However, I’ll defer.

[EmpTyger]

<snip>I also have unlynchability<snip>

Well, this is easy enough to test.

Vote: Iammars

.

[EmpTyger]

rajrhcpfreak:

Aelyn or Bamboomancer could go all in. as long as one of them isnt a power role.

Are you just mentioning Aelyn because of his stated willingness to go all-in? Because, honestly, I’m haven’t seen anything that he’s does that’s more suspicious than an average player. Whereas Bamboo had those overly guilty posts early in the game; so between the 2 I’d rather see Bamboo go all-in. But I feel more suspicious of you than Aelyn; I mean, asking 2 specific players to say whether they have a power role?
I’m still having trouble resolving your doublevote ability, though.


Aelyn:
I can think of 3 possibilities regarding Bamboo, one of which in particular is jumping out at me for a crazy metagame reason... does that make any sense?

[EmpTyger]

Another point about Dranko: he stopped being vocal when he passed 5 chips. (I have him unofficially at 6, but it seems he was never assessed a chip for the drink in [91].) That is, once he was out of range for Iammars’s [then seemingly imminent] all-in. And he has been active in many other games in the 10 days he’s been absent here. I’d ask for a claim, but it looks like Dranko (and Quagmire) is already being replaced, and I’d like to first hear the replacement’s thoughts.


Thesp:

I would like to hear everyone else's thought on this, because it seems to me the general consensus is that we still want him to all-in, and I'd I'd like to know if it's still the case or I'm mistaken.

I myself keep hesitating over what is probably an overly imaginative metagame speculation which is moot in most situations. I honestly keep going back and forth about this but I’m not sure what to conclude. Let me reread the thread and think about it some more. Sorry.

[EmpTyger]

Can anyone give a reason why we shouldn’t claim this out?

[EmpTyger]

I have an investigative ability. I do not want to discuss my results and suspicions until we have finished claiming.

[EmpTyger]

MoS?

[EmpTyger]

Finish claiming.

[EmpTyger]

In another game I'm playing, day ended early when a scummy toroidal insulator went all-in on the cooling fan. I've prodded HP for a replacement for the graphics card, which hasn't done anything since the all-in. Last night I investigated FedEx and learned it's not supposed to arrive until the end of the week.

In other words: Technical difficulties, please stand by. I'll try to get access whenever I can, but it's going to be irregular for a bit. Sorry. (I'll PM the mod to check, but I don't expect to need to be replaced.)


I would be strongly against anything which would interfere with claiming being finished today.

[EmpTyger]

My computer works again

Before Emp or Thesp claim, we need Quagmire's full ability claim.

[EmpTyger]

Mod: Can we get a chipcount?


I have been extremely hesitant to post today, lest I give any tells as to who I investigated and what the result was, as I feared that certain setups existed which would allow mafia to immediately win. So I’m actually really glad MoS made his claim, regardless of its veracity. Because now there is a second possibility I must consider: whether I am insane. Hence I am treating my result as ambiguous for now, which allows me to dismiss that worry.

I have further analysis I’d like to give about MoS’s claim, as well as about others’ and also about general strategy- but I will wait on that until claiming is finished, per the agreed ordering. And speaking of which...


Quagmire:

Please trust me.

Ridiculous. This is a game of mafia. I distrust you almost as much as I distrust Dranko. I don’t think this canine ability exists- but it’s moot since you’re not using it tonight.

I am the K9 (Canine). If I make a dog sound in every post, I have a special ability I will not name so as to help the town.

woof woof.

I didn't do it day one, because I forgot about it in my first post, and found it useless because there has to be one in EVERY ONE of my posts for that day.

So, there you all have mine.

I told you, it would be much better for the town if my ability waited for tomorrow to be revealed. Please trust me.

Well, well: the dog didn’t bark. I don’t know why you’re stalling, but quit it. You’ve run out of excuses. You’re not going to use this alleged ability tonight. You’re not going to use this alleged ability before you’d be revealing it tomorrow. Did you learn anything from Bamboo’s suicidal play? Claim fully- now!

Look, there are details of my role which would be better if they were kept hidden. But from a standpoint of allowing the town to identify mafia, it’s pointless. Because doing so would (a) make me look more suspicious and (b) allow the mafia to do the same thing and get away with it. And there is a good chance that the actions today and tonight will be deciding- tomorrow will be too late.

I can’t speak for the rest of the town, but you will have to say something awfully convincing- and much more so than “please trust me”- to convince me otherwise.

[EmpTyger]

WHOA! Way too many Aces out!

We have AJ folded, and AK, AQ, AA claimed. That's 5.

So either MoS is lying or Aelyn-Thesp are.

Okay- we clearly have 2 killing groups from last night.
Temporarily assuming there is a SK: they need to hit mafia tonight to have a chance.
SK: you need to kill off mafia.
If Thok or Quagmire is the SK: kill MoS or Thesp, whoever you think best. Reread the thread and take a stab at it.
If MoS is the SK: kill Thesp.

Temporarily assuming a second mafia (Aelyn-Thesp) exists... I don't know, I don't have time to work out the math. urgh this is really rushed, sorry- let me get this much up before LML logged on, and I'll think about it more. If you're innocent: why oh why did you rush things, Thesp???

[EmpTyger]

Okay, if we have 2 mafias, Aelyn-Thesp must be one of them.

Aelyn could be a godfather- with the title "Big Slick", that sounds likely- so that would explain MoS's innocent result if he is telling the truth. If Dranko was also in the mafia, then they pulled a gambit today. If Dranko wasn't, then that's how they were sure enough to go all-in.

So then there's another killing group, with at least 2 of {MoS, Quagmire, Thok, Tyger}. If Dranko wasn't in the Aelyn-Thesp mafia, he was a third member here. Each combination seems equally valid, with the exception of MoS-Tyger, as the competing claims are off. (and yes I know I haven't fully claimed yet, but at this point I think I'm going to pull a Quagmire and go with my own best interest and not to claim until tomorrow. Especially since each killing group is trying to target the other.)

urgh don't do well under pressure...

[EmpTyger]

Ack- forgot about Thok's A3!!!
Way too many Aces!

[EmpTyger]

I rushed it so that Dranko wouldn't get a chance to go all in against whom he thought was the serial killer (assuming a 3-person mafia 1 SK setup which seems so prevalent around here).

I don't think Quagmire could be a SK- he has too few chips to survive the endgame, and he has no way of getting chips. So Dranko's going all-in would have either netted another mafia or confirmed an innocent. But whatever. Clearly rushed circumstances.

If Dranko was mafia in league with Aelyn and I, wouldn't it be odd for Aelyn to counterclaim him today, rather than try and get a mislynch that would win it for us?

Temporarily assuming Aelyn-Thesp-Dranko, it must have been some gambit you worked out the previous night. When you couldn't have know about Iammars's suicidal play. I don't know. I'm trying to cover every possibility. And it's silly to try for a mislynch, because no lynching will be occuring- only all-ins.

I'm also not sure why the "too many aces" is inherent lying. After all, more ace hands are named than any other hands (if I recall correctly). I do suspect MoS is lying, though. My bet is Quagmire is also mafia, and Thok is our friendly neighborhood serial killer. And EmpTyger's right, the SK must hit mafia tonight to have a chance at winning.

Well, if you're telling the truth, and I'm telling the truth, and that's the setup, then that's what we have. But you have no way of knowing if I'm telling the truth, and vice versa.

I didn't really have time to analyze strategy- but I wanted to mention the possibility. All I know is that there are 4 aces in a playing deck. We've seen *6*.

I mean, I was quickly checking the site while I rewarmed dinner- this was quite a shock, and I still need to eat dinner, and was hoping to catch an 8pm movie...

[EmpTyger]

blech This is a mess and I'm too hungry to think straight. Hopefully this thread will still be open later.

[EmpTyger]

I’ve gone back and forth on pulling a Quagmire. On one hand, I don’t want it to interfere with tonight’s actions. It might distract from the mafia and SK’s psychic battle tonight in trying to target the other fake Aces. I’m almost certainly safe; even if a scum group wants to target an innocent, Quagmire’s potential unnightkillability or Thesp’s high chip count are much more pressing concerns than a possibly insane cop who might potentially reveal a rival scum.

But on the other hand, I don’t want my hypocrisy to lead to something stupid happening during the day tomorrow. So I’m compromising on simply roleclaiming without revealing my result; anyhow, the result is useless without knowing my alignment.

I am [Agent] 99: Barbara Feldon; I’m effectively a deputy. My PM is worded ambiguously as to whether there is one cop. So I am unable to dismiss out-of-hand the possibility that MoS is telling the truth; that the game started with a multiple cops and I took over from the first to die. (And even if he is lying through his teeth, I still might be insane. I’m realizing just how perfect something like that might have counterbalanced the all-in mechanic.) Hopefully things will be clearer tomorrow.


Mod: Sorry for all the doublepostings, but hopefully it's clear I'm not deliberately trying to abuse the mechanic.

[EmpTyger]

Actually, there's probably no harm in revealing that I received a guilty result last night. I've hinted as much already.

(I suppose this is the equivalent of reraising myself?)

[EmpTyger]

Well, this changes the math considerably.

First of all: if Aelyn-Thesp are a mafia, then they've won. So assume they're innocent.


SK:
It should be clear that you cannot win unless you win the all-in tomorrow. Kill Aelyn (or Thesp if he doesn't take nightprotection) and good luck tomorrow. (In Quagmire's case, you need *very* good luck.)


Mafia:
You need 4 people alive tomorrow to win (ie: 2 nightkills to occur), and for the SK and the town to have bad luck. It's easiest for you if you try to kill off the SK. Obviously Aelyn nor Thesp can be the SK, so guess among whoever's left.


Thesp:
Nightprotection is useless at this point; if you take it, Aelyn will die instead and that's just as bad. Take the investigation. Either you or Thesp will be alive in the morning.

[EmpTyger]

From the SK’s point of view:
The first thing the SK must do to win is not die tonight. Since the mafia aren't going to be killing themselves, that means that they must hope the mafia hits an innocent. So the only question is who the SK kills. They can either hit a confirmed innocent or try for a mafia.

Assume the SK hits mafia, for whatever reason.
Then tomorrow, the situation is mafia, SK, innocent, innocent.

No innocent will vote, since it allows a scum to pick up the pot. So the all-in mechanic must be used.

If an innocent goes all-in on the SK, the SK loses.
If an innocent goes all-in on the mafia, that innocent will be unnightkillable and have the high chip stack the following day. Town wins/SK loses.
If the innocents go all-in on each other, then there is a mafia-SK-innocent endgame, and the innocent will have been confirmed by surviving the all-in. The town wins, SK loses.

If the mafia goes all-in on the SK, the SK loses.
If the mafia goes all-in on an innocent- well, then they clearly went all-in on the unconfirmed innocent. Meaning that both innocents will have more chips than the SK the following day. So regardless of who the SK nightkills, the other will be able to all-in him. The town wins/SK loses.

If the SK goes all-in on an innocent, the SK loses.
So the *only* chance the SK has is to go all-in on mafia tomorrow. In which case: he wins nightprotection, nightkills one innocent, and has the high chipcount to survive through following day.

Thus, the SK tonight should kill off a confirmed innocent (Thesp if he doesn’t take nightprotection, Aelyn if he does) to double his chances tomorrow. In which case it becomes mafia, mafia, SK, innocent, and the above still holds.


Thesp:
I will not reveal my result, because I do not want to upset the calculus. There is no way you can compel me too. I will wait until LML imposes a deadline on you.

From my POV, your investigation doesn't matter. And I don't care which of you or Aelyn survives, so I don't care if you don't get your night protection. The only possible use for you all-in reward is to take the investigation, use it, share your result with Aelyn; that way one of the 2 of you will be alive tomorrow fully aware of the full situation. But it doesn't effect me if you waste it.

And, honestly, I don’t care what you’re “beginning to think” about me. It no longer matters. <points above to the case where an innocent all-ins another innocent> If we are both alive tomorrow and you go all-in on me, the town *still* wins. So quit slowplaying and make your decision.

[EmpTyger]

I’m all-in against Mastermind of Sin

[EmpTyger]

Thanks all and mod for the game.

Our original plan was to have Thok do the killing while Dranko and I tried to be as innocent as possible, using my status as godfather and the harmlessness of “sailboats”. Unfortunately, our first kill failed, the setup became unpredictable, and we never thought up a decent ability for sailboats.

I handled the nightkills starting on the second night, to ensure I wasn’t roleblocked, as I planned on claiming an investigate role. I wanted to claim my true hand (A8- Dead Man’s Hand) as a “superdeputy”- I could assume the abilities of a hand that died the previous night. But when I realized that there were 5 aces out already (which I goofed on, because I forgot to count Thok’s fabricated 6th ace) I panicked and scrambled to 99. I was planning on using some line about how “I’m not an investigator, but I play one on TV” and the fact that I was the sidekick to explain why I’d be an insane cop. Although honestly there wasn’t much point to claiming; by the time any innocents could do anything, they would know the setup. So I focused on misdirecting the other killing group.

Thok read MoS; I was honestly really torn between MoS and Quagmire, which is why I hadn’t gone all-in Day 2; I couldn’t figure out the setup. I thought they *both* were incredibly suspicious. Quagmire sounded like he was making his role up out of thin air; MoS’s role didn’t fit his hand, but “Bullets” or “Pocket Rockets” fit scum. Both were lurking Day 1 near to or past the point of being replaced.

I wasn’t sure what Dranko was trying with his claim; he’ll have to explain that. And you’ll have to ask Thok about requesting drinks. I thought it clever, and it serendipitously dovetailed nicely with Iammars’s role, but I panicked when the mod said it had game relevance!


Aelyn:

<snip>Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go.<snip>

It was a race- if you and Thesp all-ined Thok before Thok and I all-in MoS, you win. Though I can all-in Thok with one of you if worst comes to worst and make MoS kingmaker. (making me a kingmakermaker?)


Bamboo:
I was thinking that you were unnightkillable, with your “really powerful role given the setup” hinting. My metagame speculation was that LML would undervalue the role given his experiences with it in the Les Miserables Mafia.


Iammars:
What happened Night 2? As a confirmed innocent with the high chipcount, you should have stayed put and had the doctor protect you. (And we weren’t going to risk wasting a nightkill with the remote possibility that there wasn’t a doctor.) We got *extremely* lucky that you got yourself killed- if we hadn’t offed the doctor and you stayed alive, you and the doctor (confirmable by all-ining any counterclaimer) could mutually protect each other every night. Were you required to use your ability each night?


kristocker:
I thought the way hiding works is that if Iammars chooses scum to hides with, he is killed regardless of doctor protection. (Which is why it was a huge mistake for him to use his ability that night, provided he had the option of not using it- which I think he did, since he didn’t say that he hid with anyone night 1.) I killed you, and I’m assuming MoS killed rajrhcpfreak. So the only way I can explain a third nightkill in the same night is from Iammars ability. Mod or Iammars, correct me if I’m wrong.


MoS:
I was really surprised that you killed Quagmire; I honestly thought your best chance was to leave him alive and hope he was guilty, and go all-in on him Day 3. Though as it happened, you couldn’t have won anyhow. Your role had such a near-impossible win condition that I was doubting that the game could have a SK, and that the other killing group made more sense as a second mafia. Out of curiosity, how did you react to my twilight posts?

For the record, this makes up for Newbie 85.


Quagmire:
Did your ability protect you the first night? The way you phrased it, it sounded like it wouldn’t, which is one reason I thought you were lying. (Thok targeted you Night 1.)


rajrhcpfreak:
I think I’ve finally learned how to spell your name (within 2 tries).


Thesp:

<snip>I had EmpTyger pegged as townie until the day where he tried to choreograph the killers' choices. Good job up until then. Still won anyways, good job.<snip>

Thank you; I knew that would all but give me away. I actually was sorely tempted to claim scum, and reveal that I held *another* ace! But at that point the SK/second killing group might not be aware of the full situation, and I wanted to keep up the illusion for their sake. And as Aelyn and LML can attest to, historically my humorous attempts at claiming scum backfire...
I was a little suspicious of you Day 2 for pumping MoS for information. I’m not sure whether it was correct to end the day when you did, since we hadn’t gone all-in yet. But you were correct in that if we found the SK, we could win in then and there, so it was probably better to err on the side of haste. (In theory. In practice, all-in rewards and the endgame rule changed the math, and I never bothered to recalculate.)

And for the record, I realized afterwards that my “honestly, I don’t care what you’re ‘beginning to think’ about me” in [250] could be interpreted a lot more harshly than I intended, so I probably deserved your retort in [251]. I was intending to communicate that the game would not affected by whether you thought me protown or antitown; I should have said “…about my alignment” instead of “…about me” to make my meaning clear. I apologize for the disrespectful phrasing; it was entirely unintentional.


Mod:
Could we have a breakdown of nightactions? Specifically, what happened to the kill Night 1? Also, hypothetically, what would have happened, if Thesp and I all-ined Thok instead of MoS? Just for fun, who did StD investigate, and what was his sanity? An insane cop would have been hilarious with this setup...

Will post more comments for you in another post tomorrow.

[EmpTyger]

Thesp:

In retrospect, we probably should have all-inned you instead of MoS, because we were almost certain you were scum, but I didn't realize it until the "Game Over" post.

You couldn’t. I had too many chips too be all-ined by 2 people.
If you all-in Thok, though, things would have gotten tricky. I would have to decide who would log on first: Aelyn or Thok. If Thok, then he and I can all-in MoS and win. But if Aelyn arrives before Thok, then *I* have to be the second person to all-in Thok to have any chance at a mafia win, and MoS plays kingmaker.


Dranko:
Ah, okay. The problem was that a vigilante, rajrhcpfreak’s killer, and the actual AK holder all would have known you were lying. It still might have been worth it if you managed to draw out anyone other than Aelyn, because we might have gained enough information to discern the SK in time for the Day 2 all-in. I was worried you were expecting Thok or me to all-in you. [We had discussed this briefly Night 2, but we were hardly optimistic enough to plan for the situation in which 2 confirmed innocents *and* the doctor would be dead in the morning!]


Mod:
Let me first repeat that the game was very fun. But I found that 3 differences made it feel like a different game, something slightly different from mafia.

1) Voting was inferior to all-ining; there was no reason to lynch. So the idea of building a consensus and forming majority was obsolete. This also removed one of the town’s main disadvantages: that they do not know who to trust since they can’t tell who else shares their alignment. While such knowledge would be helpful, it would never be crucial to act - lynching was effectively unilateral. This also contradicted the idea of “informed minority vs. uninformed majority”. (The last day, when all-ining required 2 people, could have conceivably removed this barrier, but it was impossible for anyone to plan for this, since no one had prior knowledge of that rule change. See my third point below.)


2) Balance. Forget about the mafia and town; I honestly can’t see any reasonable way for the SK to win an endgame scenario, although admittedly most of my analysis was without the 2 person endgame all-in rule. (This actually had me thinking that probably had to be a second mafia, maybe a 2 person mafia possibly with 1 shot of unnightkillability was my best guess.) I’m wondering if this was why Maximus left?

Unlike lynching, where there is an equal chance of hitting every alignment, all-ining is more likely to hit antitowns. Even when it misses, it confirms an innocent, so every townsperson doubles as at least a one-shot cop. The alleged counterbalancing (the reward for a successful all-in) actually favors the town even more- the rewards are useless if the mafia have all-ined the SK. (If the SK is alive, then that means that we sacrificed a mafia to prevent a mafia death- no net gain- or sacrificed a mafia for an investigation, and I can’t think of a situation in which that would be worth more than the mafia member’s life.) In any event, the town can at least get just as much use out of it. (Though I’m not sure how the 2 person all-ining would have interacted with the rewards, so the endgame analysis might not be correct.)

Furthermore, the power roles seemed to be more powerful for the town than an average balanced setup. Every role, except for the post-limiter and arguably the doublevoter (and the cop, if he were insane?), was at least as powerful as in a conventional setup. A cop in this case is also a vigilante, since he doesn’t need to convince the town of anything to act on their results. (In fact a successful night 1 investigation would have allowed him to go all-in, win unnightkillability, and repeat.) The hider’s unlynchability isn’t that useful (though it might have swung an endgame), but it didn’t make him less powerful. The hider and the doctor could have mutually protected themselves at night and would never be in danger of being lynched during the day, and obviously couldn’t be all-ined. The masons were theoretically as strong as the mafia- they had knowledge of others’ alignment, and while they could not nightkill their “daykill” was more potent- and they had all of the town’s resources to aid them. Even rajrhcpfreak’s relatively useless doublevoting ability could doom the mafia in an endgame.

I don’t see what advantages scum ever got to make up for these protown effects. If anything, we lost an ability- we couldn’t counterclaim. If 2 contradictory claims occurred, the claimants would just go all-in on each other, and scum would automatically lose that encounter. Meaning there some of the more powerful roles we’d be helpless to do anything about once they came forward, effectively confirming them. (Which luckily never happened.)


3) The race factor. Since all-ining was so valuable and consensus-building unnecessary, Day 3 (and the end of Day 2) turned into a metagame of who could all-in first, hence login first, which the entire game wound up hinging upon. Someone playing an otherwise perfect game could have lost because of real-life constraints, time-zones, or a bad connection. The unexpected rule change requiring 2 people to all-in ruined any strategizing the mafia or masons might have done to work around this- we had no choice but to race to see who would logon first (and second).


(The unpredictability of the rules might be considered a fourth problem, but I’m not going to count it. Arguably it affected balance, since the mafia lost the edge of being relatively more informed than the town was decreased. But any mafia game other than the most basic is going to have some element of “outguessing the mod”; I’m not convinced this game’s setup was different in that regard. I do think there were situations where nonoptimal choices were made optimal by the knowledge available, but off the top of my head, I can’t think of how that’s different from, say, a basic vigilante’s decisions.)


Again, I want to emphasize that I *did* have fun (and not just because I won!). I don’t mean this as complaining (given the outcome, I don’t really have a right to)- I’m just trying to give some feedback about an interesting mafia experience.