Mini 810: Infection! Mini - Game over!

[veerus]

yarrrrr

[veerus]

/sick but confirm

The game has never been easier!

vote: tajo

[veerus]

I'm here. Trying to understand all the claim arguments. Personally, I'm not sure any sort of a claim is a good idea at this point. But since we're on the topic, can someone smarter than me run through the theory for each groups best claim? (kind of like test subjects claiming scientists).

And by the way, i like that idea however I can see a potential problem developing down the road when that player gets quized about whom he vaccinated during the night.

[veerus]

Upon re-reading the infected role, do the scum

have

to infect someone at night? How do the previous theories hold up if the scum just let the town lynch each other without bothering to infect anyone?

I think it makes more sense to vote no-lynch and let the security guard & scientist roles shoot it out with the scum at night. This way we don't risk accidentally lynching those roles and we don't force them to claim and out themselves either. When you consider the fact that there are test subjects in the mix who may or may not be infected, I must say I like our chances.

unvote; vote: no lynch

[veerus]

I don't see how NL will help? If we don't fight about who to lynch then I don't see how we (incl power roles) will get any info at all?

Discussion can still occur and we can lynch the most scummy player if one presents. In the case of NL, the guard will have some good info to use in determining his kill. In no way did I mean to stifle the discussion and say we should no lynch NOW. But to me, it's as logical an end to a day as lynching someone, especially later in the game. The most towniest player may be scum tomorrow and the most scummiest player may be town in the end. As long as the guard is still alive, we can minimize infection caused mislynches.

As for whether or not we know if the guard exists, based on some earlier comments here and the marathon day game, I think a guard would be essential to the setup's effectiveness.

[veerus]

I guess I agree that NL kills off a lot of the potential discussion, but I still believe it's a decent back-up plan if there's a deadline.

Can someone tell me what the case on BM is? Besides lurking (something that could be said of many here).

[veerus]

I guess I agree that NL kills off a lot of the potential discussion, but I still believe it's a decent back-up plan if there's a deadline.

Can someone tell me what the case on BM is? Besides lurking (something that could be said of many here).

How is a NL a "decent" back-up plan? Why would it be better then just lynching the scummiest player and thus having information by that? And again, on which other issues will we discuss if not on votes? Why don't you start a discussion to back up the decency of your back-up plan?

vote: veerus

until you back yourself up somehow. BM has enough votes on him for now.

All I'm saying is that, in my opinion, NL is a solid option. Theory on a game with this mechanic has not really been tested a whole lot and just because you disagree with my idea does not make me scummy.

The problem with lynching scummy players is that they may not be scum and I think it's well documented that the D1 lynch is almost always a mislynch.

The problem with lynching scummy players in THIS game is not only may they not be scum, but they may be a scientist or a guard - two roles that are key to winning this game. So let's see here, we have a scientist, a guard and some test subjects who may or may not be immune. Assuming 2 or 3 scum, odds of them hitting immune test subjects or vaccinated people or getting shot are fairly high.

In fact, the more I write about this, the more I think we should NL today. Since it's D1 and we know that the PRs are still town, we can afford a night or two of night actions only without risking mislynching them or getting infected. Then depending on the night results, we can continue to scum hunt normally.

As for generating a lot of discussion, how much is too much? If the most towniest player is infected, how do you forsee the town lynching that towniest player-turned-scum for the win?

[veerus]

Not lynching scummy players in this game is a mistake. If we let someone who acts scummy slide they'll just kill themselves that night and we lose our chance at taking down a scum.

Hmm.. good point. This is the first thing I've seen against the idea that makes sense.

The odds of shooting an infected player are exactly 1 in 6 if there are two scum and 1 in 4 if there are three scum.

I was also talking about the chances of them infecting an immune/vaccinated person.

Anyway... what does everyone else think? Last I checked, this game had 12 players, not 3.

[veerus]

Anti-prod... My NL theory is obviously the minority opinion so I'm dropping it for now. And no one's really pinged the radar yet.

[veerus]

Anti-prod... My NL theory is obviously the minority opinion so I'm dropping it for now. And no one's really pinged the radar yet.

When you say you are dropping it, do you mean you plan to vote, or are going to stop trying to push for a no-lynch?

I am dropping it unless we're going to push against a deadline and are no closer to lynching (like now).

[veerus]

Kise, I fail to understand how your question answers Tajo's...

[veerus]

At that point, we already we were agreeing that nobody should claim, so the part about not forcing power roles to claim is invalid.

False. If a PR is close to a lynch, they would have to claim. NL avoids this scenario.

In addition, veerus didn't - up to yet - tell us which kind of discussion should have taken place without voting,

I have said that discussion can occur as normal and we can lynch the scummiest player if one presents himself. Currently, there is no real suspect, and I still maintain that this is one case where a deadline NL is better than a random deadline lynch.

[veerus]

I have said that discussion can occur as normal and we can lynch the scummiest player if one presents himself. Currently, there is no real suspect, and I still maintain that this is one case where a deadline NL is better than a random deadline lynch.

A lot of things can occur. Too bad you don't intend to start or least take part any of these - with the exception of doing absolutely nothing.

This is like the pot calling the kettle black. Last I checked you haven't exactly been a stellar example of player participation either.

[veerus]

I agree with tajo on this one. FA's vote on PP is opportunistic and a feeble attempt at making a mountain out of a mole hill and will vote him if we get closer to the deadline.

However..

unvote; vote: rally vincent

To elaborate on my comment above, RV is voting me for suggesting an idea and not contributing new things to the discussion. Which is odd considering he himself has barely contributed to the discussion and over half of his posts deal with my NL idea and nothing else. For someone who is so concerned with starting a discussion, he sure has shunned away from it himself. Looks like a classic example of a scum who is trying to post something safe (like attack a weak theory) without posting any active content himself.

[veerus]

DIdn't we agree that the meta of BM lurker = scum? He's been pretty lurk-ish here.

[veerus]

veerus, is Rally the lynch?

I would be happy with him being the lynch. The only thing that he has done in this game is criticize my NL idea without really providing much content on the rest of the game discussion.

To add to the FA discussion - as much as tajo's easy target theory makes sense, I'm not sure that his vote on PP is telling on its own here. Plus his early posts before that vote seem pretty townish to me.

[veerus]

I find it interesting that Rally and Shotty are pushing me for more or less lack of scum hunting when many others in the game could also be placed in that category. I don't see them pushing that on malthusis or BM, both of whom have barely done anything today. In addition, Rally and Shotty have attacked me for my NL idea in an attempt for an easy lynch for proposing an idea that was not entirely sound but hardly scummy. Those seem as pretty shaky reasons to me, but then again, I'm biased.

In addition to these two (especially Rally as Shotty's been relatively active in the other discussions) my other suspect is Kise. I'm having a hard time putting my finger on it exactly but his posts strike me as very scummy and very unlike how PP was (outside of his crazy idea).

[veerus]

veerus, could you say a word about your apparent change of opinion about fallen being votable by you if we got closer to a deadline.

There was no change. If we are pushing up right against the deadline and FA is the primary suspect, then I'll vote. But Kise's posts have been quite puzzling to me and I wanted to voice the suspicions I had.

I guess you realize that your suspects being Rally and Shotty looks like OMGUS.

Yes, I do. However that is partially due to the fact that since they're the ones directly accusing me (which often requires my response), I've read through their posts more thoroughly. And upon re-reading their posts, I've noticed that Rally is being hypocritical with his accusations and Shotty's case is too weak and circumstantial.

[veerus]

As promised, deadline vote.

unvote; vote: fallen angel

[veerus]

I think he went with a safe option. I think his most logic reasoning would be to :

a)Infect someone more experienced than him.

b)Infect someone that wouldnt be targeted for vaccination.

I know there are some that fit this group. I dont think its basically day 1 again since there are some people less likely to be infected.

I agree with this. I originally thought that you would be infected but then I remembered about scientists which would make you the #1 vaccination target. I think we're likely looking for someone who seemed town-ish D1.

What does it mean that there was likely no guard kill? I can think of 2 scenarios:
1) guard got lucky and killed another infected, meaning mod's post is a bit misleading
2) we have no guard.. I'm inclined to believe that this is the case due to the phrasing of the mod post.

[veerus]

Malthusis was mainly a non-factor in D1 so it'll be hard to link him to anyone in D2. We have to start anew. The only difference is that a townie from yesterday is now scum. As I mentioned in my earlier post, we're looking for someone who looked town-ish in D1. I'd like to expand on that and mention that it would also likely be someone who wasn't on many people's radar. In addition, I'm inclined to agree with BM's hypothesis of malt likely picking someone who's experienced. So, here're my unfounded list of likely scum targets: charter or kelly chan. Both seem to have kind of faded compared to their posting in D1 (especially charter) and could conceivably be discussing strategy in the scum thread. (assuming that we started with 3.. a likely scenario despite what BM says).

[veerus]

BM, your quote tag is messed up and it looks like you unvoted & voted for me.

KC, I meant that Kise's playstyle was very different from how PP was playing and it is my belief that such a difference likely implies a scum replacement since everyone has their own idea of how to play scum best while there's usually only one way to play townie.

[veerus]

I understand where you're coming from with the original scum theory, but what makes you so sure he didn't get infected? Yesterday he was fairly active and came up with a plan that he thought was helpful to town and commented on most everything. Today he's done nada. Thoughts?

Yesterday I was active for a while due to my plan, which today is completely invalid. And I haven't come up with another "clever" plan to tackle day 2. In a game like this with cults who could always communicate, sometimes it's better to observe. I've already said who I think was likely infected by malthusis. I am also starting to think that The Replacement might've been infected. Mokina was pretty townish in D1, but Replacement briefly waddled back and forth on BM before not saying much else. In one of his posts he also said that he'd been playing for several months, implying experience. If malthusis had an idea of who that person is, him infecting The Replacement would also fit with the "infect an experienced player" theory.

I am also starting to think that charter is likely town. He's mentioned numerous completely valid reasons for why I, and my actions, are pro-town. Few too many if he was scum.

[veerus]

You realize I'm quashing the arguments of the only person who is voicing suspicion/voting veerus, he's not even doing it (though I can't imagine why).

Quite frankly, you're beating me to it and phrasing things better than I probably would have.

[veerus]

I think 358 is a very potent reason to think there are 2 scum left. I dont see Malthusis using a deadline extension request to wifom the number of scum.

Why would he then immediatelly suicide infect after dropping that bomb? Not to wifom this to death, but it's quite plausible that he could've made that comment to make town believe there are three scum. Or because it's a number that makes sense (to me anyway). Assuming 1 scientist, 1 guard and 1 immune test subject against 2 scum seems very stacked for town.

[veerus]

I'm around.. waiting for the activity to pick up. You make a very good case for the replacement being the third original scum and I would tend to agree with it. Also, as I've stated, KC is a likely malthusis infection due to how townie he was in D1, his experience and how the content has significantly faded in D2 compared to D1.

[veerus]

Your reasoning for The Replacement is compelling and very spot on while my reasoning is largely circumstancial. I'd prefer his lynch with BM-guard shooting KC.

[veerus]

RV, are you saying that I'm supposed to keep my read despite the fact that the role is now played by a different player in a different day (with possibly a different allignment)? That's ridiculous. That's even not considering the fact that charter's points make a lot of sense.

Give up your tunnel vision already and try to look for other scum. Who do you think is scum besides me?

[veerus]

I think at this point the question we should answer first is do we try to lynch someone who we think is the original scum scum, or someone who was infected by malt?

My vote would be to go after the original scum since we have more evidence and our vote won't be as circumstancial. Charter makes a good case for the original victim being Mokina/Replacement and I agree with him.

unvote;vote: The Replacement

[veerus]

Anti-prod. Sorry, I have not had much time for analysis of my own, but looking over the case on shotty versus the case on mokina/replacement, it seems to me that shotty's posting really deteriorated in D2 implying infection while mokina/replacement's posts (as originally pointed out by charter) seem to imply original scum. Both cases are strong and when the replacement gets replaced, we should hopefully have sufficient information to determine which is more likely.

unvote

[veerus]

Basically, you're going to need to post something original instead of following me.

But you make so much sense..... I'll try to read through in the next couple days.

[veerus]

FYI, going on a surprise vacation trip over the weekend that I just found out about late last night. Therefore, V/LA until monday.

[veerus]

I was going to re-read, but now I won't need to just yet as this is ridiculous.

unvote; vote: Battle Mage

[veerus]

LAL is a major part of it. Plus he's lurked hardcore this entire game and it was established at the start that BM-lurker = scum. He's been around long enough for me to trust that meta.

Tubby also confuses me. Shotty summarized that well. He's just all over the board. Confused town or panicky scum?

[veerus]

If he's scum, he's obviously gonna defend me. And if he's town, he's doing a hella lot better than most people.

Really? So if he's scum he'll defend you and if he's town, he'll defend you?

[veerus]

seriously? you think BM is trying to get back at you from a year ago?

why don't we lynch tubby and see which way BM goes during the night? there's enough evidence to make a case for KKN/tubby being scum, especially given tubby's play since he replaced and if BM survives the night, we lynch him tomorrow

[veerus]

Are you confident on this wagon?

Kelly Chen, animorpherv1, tubby216??

Im not.

I'm conflicted. On one hand, there's a pretty good case on Shotty and his claim and the choice of targets seems forced. On the other hand, I kind of agree with tajo - this is quite a speed lynch forming here from players with little credibility. animorph replaced the replacement who was a decent candidate to get lynched earlier. tubby was all over the place after he replaced in in D2.

I'm kind of leaning towards scum though and will probably hammer in a few days.

[veerus]

well, i'd be ok with a KC or tubby lynch today... i think its pretty obvious that either charter or tajo got infected last night.. personally my money would be on charter (he's been more active and his reads have been spot on). if we lynch kc or tubby, it'll give us more time to determine who got infected between tajo/charter.

[veerus]

What are the odds of malthusis going after tajo? Since Shotty is the scientist and he didn't protect tajo......

[veerus]

well, i'd be ok with a KC or tubby lynch today... i think its pretty obvious that either charter or tajo got infected last night.. personally my money would be on charter (he's been more active and his reads have been spot on). if we lynch kc or tubby, it'll give us more time to determine who got infected between tajo/charter.

I shouldn't argue for my own lynch, but someone else will point this out, but why would you lynch someone besides who you think got infected? I think it's unlikely any original scums are left since ani died. And you can't let someone you think is infected alive until night.

Hm, i probably shouldn't post late at night. I didn't realize this at the time, but you're right, all 3 original scum have been lynched or suicided already. The idea behind my post was to give us more time to figure out who was infected last night by attempting to lynch one of our earlier suspects.

I reskimmed a few people and I am going to completely flip-flop.

unvote, vote: Shotty

Much better bet I think.

Here's the breakdown I came up with:
Maybe original: charter, mokina/rplcmt, shotty, veerus, kise?
Maybe recruited: charter, pop, rally, shotty
Believe to be neither atm: me, bm, kid

This was the pebble that started the avalanche. Charter had been pretty townie up to that point and was leading a very strong case on mokina/replacement/aminoph and for you to put him in both original and recruited categories looks really bad (especially in hindsight).

vote: KC

[veerus]

hm i thought i was pretty clear..

we've had 2 suicides, malt and mokina/et al. Given how tajo was the obvious choice D1, i feel it's pretty likely that malt would've gone for someone else.. as i (and BM) mentioned early in D2, KC was likely the one who malt would've picked

fast forward to last night's suicide.. the two obvious choices are tajo and charter.. to me, charter is the more likely target since he's been significantly more active and spot on with several of his reads however tajo is a great choice as well.

the idea behind my vote on KC is that i feel that that was malt's infection choice - a theory given strength by KC's counter wagon on Shotty to save replacement. Assuming this is correct, we can then evaluate today's play from tajo and charter to determine who's our last infected for tomorrow...... savvy?

[veerus]

Night 1 actions

Rally Vincent (scientist) - Vaccinate Battle Mage
charter (scientist) - Vaccinate tajo
Shotty to the Body (scientist) - Vaccinate KKN
Malthusis (infected) - Infect Kelly Chen

Kelly Chen (technician) is infected!

Night 2 actions

Rally Vincent (scientist) - Vaccinate populartajo (fails, already vaccinated)

charter (scientist) - Vaccinate Shotty
Shotty to the Body (scientist) - Vaccinate Kelly Chen
Kelly Chen (infected) - Infect Shotty (blocked by vaccination on Kelly)

Kelly survives due to being vaccinated.

Night 3 actions

Rally Vincent (scientist) - Vaccinate charter
charter (scientist) - Vaccinate Kelly Chen (fails, already vaccinated)
animorpherv1 (infected) - Infect charter (vaccinated!!!)

animorpherv1 dies, but fails to infect because his target was vaccinated.

I thought vaccinations only worked for one night?

[veerus]

err, duh. i knew that

good call on protecting charter, RV.. though i do find it a bit odd that no one vaccinated him on N2.. luckily that worked out