Mini 740 - Communiqu├® Mafia 2: Game Over and the Winner is..

[Budja]

vote:houseofcards

[Budja]

roffman made a good point there, I don't think he deserves a FoS.

Your vote did not appear to be random.

[Budja]

Alright stop this already, you attached some serious reasoning to a vote which makes it non-random.
Upon being questioned, you claimed the vote really was random and FoS the questioners .

Being overdefensive to an innocent question is the scumtell here IMO. Roffman and Ectomancer have really done nothing to deserve your suspicion.

Oh and BTW, latching onto such WEAK justification for a vote this early in the game is definitely a scum tell.

This is anything but scummy, this is called scum-hunting. Do you really expect strong justification for a vote to occur early in the game?

[Budja]

I agree with Juls here, the town having the power to communicate seems more valuable than taking the chance to stop a single mafia daytalk. I don't think it is worth it.

I have to say that Reecer looks anti-town from his posts. But I have played with him before and I think his attitude comes from playing on another forum which quick-lynched every day. Post some actual content Reecer .

Alright, hohum is a good lynch...

OK, stop here. hohum did something scummy but I don't think we should just agree to lynch him.
I don't like this, quick lynching is clearly anti-town in a non-reveal game.

Unvote, vote: Ectomancer

[Budja]

Heres an idea.

If it was only a one-shot investigation, the sender comes forward. We then lynch both hohum and the sender. One will be scum.

It isn't a particularly nice plan for the innocent one but it is a way to get a guaranteed scum kill in a no-reveal game which sounds very good to me.

What do you think?

[Budja]

Yes but if the message was genuine the sender should come forward, that was my point. I doubt it too but you never know.

[Budja]

Looks fine to me.

[Budja]

From the queue.

My game should be starting soon, so here's some quick info:

Presenting...Communiqué Mafia 2 (Shanba Approved™)!
Back-up Mod: Lord Gurgi

This game will be no-reveal

, so please do not sign up if you are not interested in this type of game.

Day 1 deadline=3 weeks, All other days are 2 weeks with a one week extension request available at any time. Nights are 4 days.

I highly recommend that you read MeMe's Communiqué Mafia if you decide to /in.

I will accept players at my own discretion, as the game may be too complex for newer players. In addition, I recommend that you have completed at least one game.

Link the the previous game is here.
I suggest you take note of the roles here in it although is quite probably a bit different.

I think that Juls' stepping forward was unfortunate. If you were honest, The mafia know you are a power role now which is not good.
But really you had no choice. Sending the PM was not anti-town and Ecto's plan screwed you up.

So I don't think Juls is scummy. Our communiques are our weapon and I also think Juls is right that this plan should not continue past today. I think players can put their messages to better use and scum would get little to no advantage out of it.
After all in a no-reveal game, these messages may end up being crucial to the town.

[Budja]

Yes, sounds good to me.

[Budja]

Ecto, thats ridiculous. That action was hardly scummy. Why would someone need a excuse to use their own message before you had even mention your plan?

[Budja]

I see suspicious as clearly implying scummyness, not necessarily much, but some none the less.

[Budja]

Casey's password was right.

Also, I don't think Ecto was scummy in this case.

[Budja]

Password: dolphinboy

@hohum, why the self-vote, it is pointless and helps nothing?

[Budja]

*sigh*

Reecer, just read the whole damn thread. It is only 7 pages, shouldn't take long.

[Budja]

unvote, vote Reecer6

From what I interpret from the thread, Reecer is the only one not at least partially confirmed.
Prove to us that you have a communique and send it.

[Budja]

Now please send your message Reecer.

[Budja]

Stop the personal attacks, both of you .

Hurry up Reecer!

[Budja]

The town will not blindly follow anyone. Not everyone agreed with the plan from the start.

The reason everyone (except you), likes the plan now is that it has a great chance of hitting scum. It is clearly a logical move to make.

[Budja]

Well no , but we might have.

We also have three theories to look at, the two Ecto stated and that roffman could have lied.

(And no, I don't like the pre-emptive defence either.)

[Budja]

I am not willing to declare hohum either scummy or townie. However I see no reason to lynch him.

Not much point keeping my vote on Reecer now he has sent his communique.

unvote
vote: roffman

I'd say their is enough of a chance that roffman lied to justify a vote IMO.

[Budja]

Ooh. If this is the right answer, then we have some info to go on. There were two or three proposed chain orders, so it might be good to see who was fine with what order. I'll take a look at this, probably tomorrow, unless someone beats me to it.

I don't think you will find much. Their was very little talk over the order.

At this time, though, my vote stands. Hohum has been evading questioning and posting scummy replies, even to the point of voting himself in a defeatist "You got me" manner.

I still don't really see the case on hohum. I thought we were going to lynch him

if

we found the PM sender. Now I am not happy with a hohum lynch.

[Budja]

Then replace out. Don't stay unless you are actually willing to participate.

[Budja]

Also, how do you plan to confirm alignment. Scum get power roles occasionally too. As you pointed out, your "packages" could potentially contain bad things, instead of good things.

If Juls is telling the truth about the role then her alignment would moist likely be town. It doesn't sound like a role for scum to me.

@Juls
I suggest you act as a "vig".

Target the scummier players and you have a 1/3 chance of killing them. If scum get the cop/doc powers it won't help them very much.

Also after you have either
1.) used up the bomb or
2.) used up the cop/doc powers
you can then target townie/scummy players accordingly without taking a risk.

I also think Juls should be protected if a doc power exists.

We will find out more about Juls tomorrow.

[Budja]

I still believe the roffman is the best lynch.
The chance that the mafia who sent the message had a double communique is IMO about half the chance of roffman lying.

You say 33% chance of a vig... and we don't even know if she has vig powers?

I was assuming Juls was right in her guess of what the packages did.

I think that there is nothing wrong with looking at the previous game but to make assumptions is dangerous.

I dont like your reasoning re. roffman and hohum.

I think that:
- if roffman lied (scum), then hohum (unknown, leaning scum a little)
- if roffman told the truth (town), then hohum (very prob town)
That is how I work it out. I could reasonably believe the roffman bussed hohum.

there (almost) definitely

exists

a game mechanic by which Roffman could have received that 2nd communique

Correction:

existed

last game not exists. I suspect the power of a double communique is quite possible but it outweighed by the chance of scum being together in the loop or the chance of roffman lying.

Anyhow, at this point I want to ask one last time (and hopefully several of you will back this request), if you had the one shot investigation and we need to lynch Hohum, please step forward. I just realized why you might not want to do it, which is we would want to lynch you due to the no reveal. All I can say to that is I will not push for your lynch until an investigator type has had opportunity to look at you and get a message out to whomever they trust. Even should you get lynched, a for certain 1 scum for 1 town is a good deal.

I thought we had gone over this already . Still in the tiny, tiny chance it is true I agree with you.

[Budja]

Now, should we get through both of those, with nobody stepping forward, we can almost be certain (90-95% if you want a number) that we have confirmed both Roffman and Hohum as town.

I disagree with this. 90% is a ridiculous exaggeration. I stress again, We do not know if a second communique exists.

You are still taking this assumption as fact. Now if anyone, anyone at all, has a one-shot day ability they have used, it would be good to reveal it to the town now. It can't hurt.
I don't think making such strong assumptions as you currently are Ectomancter, is helping us.

Juls, I realize you don't like me controlling things, but realize that I don't currently trust anyone else to do it. If we can clear Roffman and/or Hohum, I will be more than willing to let someone else have the reigns. I would also like to point out that I have certainly not been controlling every aspect of this game. I yielded verification order to Casey and open debate. I'm also unable to control anything where that control is not given. I can't make you do things you don't want.

Also Juls, you may want to send your package where you want, but you have little choice in the matter if town decides where to send it. You'll do it or be lynched.

Please also note Ecto that you are not in charge of the town.

You have your say and that is all, we (hopefully) do not mindlessly follow your ideas.

You have no more say than anyone else and your attempts to control the town are irritating.
hohum has already pointed this out and I agree with what he says.

I would not have followed the first plan. I followed the modified plan as it had a clear objective.
I will follow your ideas if they are sensible and I agree with them.

[Budja]

Ok, please stop exaggerating my views.

I will post more about this later but for now I want to make this clear.

I am certainly not insisting the a 2nd communique does not exist. I don't know where that came from. I am simply arguing against your assumption that it most likely exists.

Also I think I said I have no problem following you if I agree with you. I already have. But I don't like your assumption that you are controlling us.

[Budja]

Thank you Casey.

I was going to explain myself more clearly but you did it perfectly .

[Budja]

A few thoughts..

I like don's idea of no-lynch a bit but it is risky.
Our lynch would be unknown, but their is a chance of PR's able to determine alignment after death as in the last game.
I don't really want to follow this speculation too far as it is almost identical to the thoughts Ecto had which I disagreed with and suffers the same flaws.

So if I assume such an ability doesn't exist (a pessimistic approach), no lynch would be a good move.

So my position on this is generally the same as Ecto's. It is worth considering.

Considering all the uncertainty over roffman, we could do a test. We could see if anyone gets a second communique tonight or tomorrow. If not, then lynch him.
Its not conclusive but the result would swing the probabilities a lot IMO.
Thoughts on this?

one note on casey: in 16 +pages of reading this thread, casey is the one and only player to mention the words: "serial killer"

Interesting, could you point out the exact place.

[Budja]

I don't think we can rule anyone out as scum. But, as I believe Casey was doing, we can narrow down the search for one particular scum (roffman or communique sender).

About Caseys 10 options.

99% chance one is correct. Narrowing it down, not so easy.

I ask again, universal question, what do you think of my idea re. roffman in my last post.

If we have confirm/deny option 9, we will gain a lot more information.

Also, roffman sending a communique to himself seems very unlikely to me.


@Reecer, I said it before and I say it again. Contribute if you are staying. Pointing out incredibly obvious points and making extremely wishy-washy statements (ie. X is scum but they might not be!) isn't really helpful.
Because of your meta, you are virtually impossible to read.


@don, the sk thing is a bit weird but I like and accept Casey's explanation here.

[Budja]

Considering all the uncertainty over roffman, we could do a test. We could see if anyone gets a second communique tonight or tomorrow. If not, then lynch him.
Its not conclusive but the result would swing the probabilities a lot IMO.
Thoughts on this?

Meh...I think this leaves too much open to chance and not knowing enough about the dynamic of the game we could lynch on a very weak reason. I still believe roffman may be lying but I don't think this test would add to the argument enough to do it.

That doesn't make sense to me.

"Roffman is lying", "Their are two communiques" and "Scum were back to back" are our options.

If we eliminate (or at least greatly reduce the possibility) the second option , then the chance Roffman is lieing greatly increases.
If the reverse happens and multiple communiques occur then the chance Roffman is lying decreases greatly.

Not too much is left open to chance. We came close to lynching roffman with the information we have now earlier. What harm is there is gaining more information.

[Budja]

I am definitely not suggesting we ignore roffman today.

It's just a idea to help reduce all of the uncertainty. Basically the plan is if someone has 2 communiques tonight/tomorrow, then send them both.

I think more people need to speak up and share their views. Only half the town is really talking, the rest are following/lurking.

[Budja]

I understand your objection hohum, what I don't understand is the strength of your objection.

Gain from lynch:
- Remove greatest suspect from game
- Chance of discovering alignment as in original game (Very unreliable)

Gain from no-lynch:
- No risk taken by lynching

The next day we have a likely informed lynch tomorrow (possible plan re. roffman, power roles, communiques, whatever).

Lynching day 1 is really a risk taking thing. Take the chance of lynching mafia for the larger chance of lynching town.
The big difference is we don't get to see the result.

Actually another thought.

-Push greatest suspect to L-1.
-Claim
-Lynch

Then we have a greater knowledge of who we lynched .

Personally I find it hard to decide .

[Budja]

It is probably a bad idea to keep Reecer around if he isn't going to improve but I would prefer a replacement to a policy lynch.

[Budja]

Alright, here's my comment on your case hohum.

Ecto likes to talk about how he believes he is helping the town, and how he is such a strong leader. I would submit to the rest of the group that this sort of diluted self-aggrandizing attitude is very harmful to the town in a no reveal game.

Its annoying anyway but I don't think this has been particularly harmful.

Further, his attitude at the beginning of the game sucked, hard. He did several things that I do not approve of:

First, he jumped all over me for a joke vote.

Vote: Casey

nobody is quick-lynching. With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Last I checked he was at L-4.

This doesn't seem like a joke vote to me. I didn't like your first vote here either. What Ecto did to catch my suspicions here is he suggested you would be worth lynching for this post alone.

Fourth, he stalls (see previous point) and waffles. For example I have gone on his radar from being confirmed scum, to being "nearly" confirmed town, back to leaning scum as of the last time he gave an opinion on my game play.

...

Seventh, he's been attacking people that I'm getting mostly town reads from. Juls for instance. Even after the discussion ensued about how she could verify her claim he was still advocating her lynch -- granted no longer in such an immediate fashion. This shows that he really doesn't seem to care who gets lynched and why.

Agreed on these two points. Especially the seventh. I never understood the severity of Ecto's attack on Juls, nor his accusation that her action was anti-town.

Also, I'm still vehemently opposed to a no-lynch. And I'm not ignoring the dynamics of the game any more than you're ignoring the hard math behind why in every single MS game to date regardless of mechanics a no lynch on D1 has or would have harmed the town (even if marginally) more than it would have helped the town. A D1 no lynch in ANY situation flies in the face of years of experience and general accepted practice on this site.

Anyone pushing for a D1 no-lynch should be lynched on policy.

This is a unique game. The results of lynches are not shown and this ups the risk of lynching. Policy lynching for this is definantly unnecessary here IMO.

Basically, I agree with about a third of what you say.

[Budja]

@Casey, sorry but a lot of what you posted seems fairly trivial to me. I would seriously doubt Reecer is involved in such a plan.

[Budja]

Pretty much agree with don here, it is reaching.

[Budja]

I would prefer it if Juls directs her own communique.

As I have said before, I am not for any more communique-ordering plans unless their is more of a motive behind it than just silencing scum.

[Budja]

I strongly disagree with Casey too. 1-for-1 means that one player is definitely scum and I certainly don't see that here.

[Budja]

Sent: Tue Feb 10, 2009 @ 9:18 am AEST
Received: Wed Feb 11, 2009 @ 7:15 am AEST

... no idea how this info is going to help.

[Budja]

Also, I have my online status hidden to stop this kind of speculation about me as others may also.

[Budja]

Please Ecto , it is a universal mafia rule and its not like you were modkilled or anything.

[Budja]

@don_johnson, who do you think is scummy right now?

@Reecer, who do you think is acting scummy? Also what do you think of a no-lynch today? ... well it would be great to hear your opinion on anything in the game right now for more than one sentence.

@Juls, I don't mind your plan but I don't think you will get much info out of it .

@ mod, could we have a prod on Braeden.

[Budja]

Indeed, names by themselves aren't much. Even if your suspicions have already being stated in the thread, I'd like a little explanation.

[Budja]

The big problem is that few people are scumhunting or even showing who they suspect. I think that we have over-focused/discussed on the special mechanics of the game.

I don't like a no-lynch at the moment. I would much prefer a lynch of roffman or Reecer at this point.

[Budja]

Now's your chance to say something Reecer . I asked you some questions last page. Care to answer them.

[Budja]

True, a Reecer lynch > no lynch. Either Reecer improves or we definitely can't afford to keep him around for much longer.

I am with Juls on this.

[Budja]

Ah, lots of posts really quickly . Well, the game is stagnating so I will also vote Reecer if he fails to convince me otherwise. Cmon Reecer, get your act together.

[Budja]

unvote

, I will wait for a replacement before placing my vote.

You still have time to stop this, Reecer.

Town, please be smart with your night choices and your night communique's...also, analyze everything that is said and make sure scum is not taking you for a ride. I suggest putting a codeword somewhere in there in the event you need to verify yourself later. BE SMART!

Well said. Also if you get a one shot 2nd communique, say so.

[Budja]

In that case, I very strongly suggest we stop the Reecer wagon now.

[Budja]

Anyway hohum, any chance of seeing that post-by-post against Ectomancer.

Also I am not going to vote no lynch at this stage. Even if we don't hit scum, we at least remove a distraction.

I mean, our vote tomorrow will probably be more informed but the result of our lynch will probably still be uncertain. We really can't rely on power roles to save us.

[Budja]

Yeah, and that really helps how?

That happens anyway whether we lynch or not.

[Budja]

...

Oh, come on, that's a lame reason and you should know it. If it were true, no-lynch would be a viable strategy for normal games.

The only relevant difference that this game here is no-reveal so we don't get the result of our lynch. I was unsure at first, but now I believe that this is insufficient reason not to lynch today.

We have the chance to lynch

our

choice today. Whether that turns out to be scum or town, we have at least removed a distraction and we should think of it as such.

[Budja]

My point is we have to lynch sooner or later and while power-roles, and mafia kills I guess, will narrow down our search, we will most likely lynch a "non-confirmed" potential scum in the end.

You could use your case for day 1 for subsequent days, which makes it seem that you are relying on power roles (bad idea) and the knowledge gained from mafia kills (which are WIFOM really ).

[Budja]

I don't really see much on don. His push of no-lynch is not really scummy considering that I can see his point of view and seriously considered it as did many others. A no-lynch is probably not as bad here as it is in a normal game but it is still not a good move.

[Budja]

Alright then,

Vote roffman

. Don't just take the easy route, take the route that most helps the town. Vote for your biggest suspect.

[Budja]

Roffman is at L-2.

@don, didn't you say that hohum was only suspect if roffman was scum.

[Budja]

@roffman, first you said all their ability's are deflected to you, then you say messages.

I think it's getting to claim time. I'm a shielder. I target someone and all actions that target them target me instead.

The flavor is that i send them a message to activate it, then all their messages are sent to me.

Clarify please.

I am not really liking the claim.In a no-reveal closed game, I think scum would probably claim a power role and, as Juls says, it doesn't really fit the flavour. I am not unvoting.

@don, hohum is the closest thing to a confirmed townie that we have got unless roffman attempted to pull off a scum gambit. His attitude is not great but that is irrelevant to whether he is scum IMO.

hohum is partnered with roffman. scumhohum sent the communique to town roffman.

partnered? Anyway this looks very unlikely to me.

at this point i would ask that we actively dismantle the Roffman wagon and lynch hohum. his behavior is fucking ridiculous. and i am pretty sure that ridiculous isn't happy about it.

Why? Abandon a lynch of someone I believe is scum for what appears to be a policy lynch. Build a better case and I'll listen.

I am really not liking your current behaviour don. Why are you being so defensive, directly and indirectly, of roffman?

[Budja]

not really defending roffman, but i am willing to entertain other possibiities. we have no clarification on whether or not someone had two commuiques. scum could simply have lied.

It is just that you appear to be going out of your way to find other possibilities.

also, hohum is extremely far from being a "confirmed" townie.

He isn't confirmed but I'd say he is more likely to be town than anyone else except Juls.

to juls and budja: i am saying, nor did i say, that i think hohum/roffman to be scumbuddies. i stated that that could be one of the possibilities to explain the "rogue communique".

i am not voting roffman because hohum is being an ass

, and because if i were to have been voting roffman that would have ended the day and i was unsatisfied with today's proceedings. roffmans claim sounds like bullshit.

Don't think like that, a bad attitude does not equal scumminess.

Also, if you also believe roffman to be scum as you seem to be implying, then why didn't you vote him over hohum. As a supporter of no-lynch, I would have thought you would prefer to go for the obv scum.

budja: if you are town and you had information you could paste into the thread, and your honesty as to whether or not this information existed came into question, and there was no danger to you for posting said information, would you not post it?

Confusing question , I am guessing you are referring to hohum's analysis. I don't care if hohum has written it or not yet, that is irrelevent IMO. I would say there is no harm in posting it now.

[Budja]

@don, hohum has already posted an attack on Ecto, its not like he hasn't been scumhunting. To withhold his pbpa until the replacement arrives is no big deal. I don't see the great importance around it anyway.

don, don't be dramatic...it weakens any points you may have made. I don't think we give a pass to hohum completely but I do feel that of the three scenarios we have in front of us: 1) roffman lied, 2) someone has two communiques and 3) hohum really is scum...I believe that 1 or 2 are more likely.

Vote Roffman

I think enough discussion has been had on the topic. I still don't see anything that makes me believe this to be true.

QFT

[Budja]

I generally agree with Juls but why can't the person say the result from the package in-thread. I think that the whole town should know.

(On a side note, I was thinking and I suspect the bomb message you have may be a 1-shot vig. Just a guess but it might be very bad to send to scum so scratch my earlier vig idea .)

No extra communique for me.

@don, you have still failed to give satisfactory reasons why we should lynch hohum. Give us a proper case please.

Looking forward to your big post, hohum.

[Budja]

@Juls, OK, but if the information is beneficial to the town (eg. an investigation, especially a guilty), I would like it posted in-thread.

@don, how does it balance out the roffman lynch? It is not a 1-for-1 situation here. hohum is scum if the scum (either the message sender or roffman) made a gambit.

I am not really trying to defend hohum here but your attack just rings false to me. I am suspecting it was an attempt to derail the roffman wagon to be honest but your continued attack today has appeased that slightly.

Please post if you did/didn't have more that one communique last night (only if it is not part of a PR).

[Budja]

Here are our options-

1.) hohum is scum, roffman is scum
roffman lied about communique and did a gambit to "confirm" hohum. Possible as the plan was already mentioned as roff was pro-plan.

2.) hohum is town, roffman is scum
roffman lied about communique to incriminate hohum/ muddy waters.

3.) hohum is town, roffman is town
Scum sent roffman a message to incriminate hohum/ muddy waters.

4.) hohum is scum, roffman is town
The message was sent to roffman as a gambit to "confirm" hohum.

Looking at this, I guess you are right that the probability that 1 of them is scum is quite good.

However, Roffman's claim looked bad IMO and I am very sure he was scum. So while a lynch of hohum could balance the odds, I am not keen on a policy lynch which is really what it would be.

I still disagree with most of your case , but I see where you are coming from now. I'll have to think about this.

[Budja]

Your motive, Juls?

[Budja]

^^

Well Said.

[Budja]

@Phily, Juls is right. Tunnel Vision is definitely scummy. I have no strong reason to suspect either of don/hohum,

Give us some reasons ASAP.

Also, we have looked at CM#1. This game seems quite a bit different so far so we shouldn't rely on it too much.

@Rhinox. hohum ought to have some question for you soon.

[Budja]

Right, Phil.

So lets get this clear. You strongly state the one of don/hohum are scum. Juls questions you and you say you have "good reasons". I pressure you too and you state that actually hohum isn't that scummy after all.

I've not even voted for you so what makes you think I'm finding you to be the scum? Its still possible you're both town but I need to make sure of that first.

Oh, and look. Actually your not sure about don, he might even be town.

...

I won't overreact. I will

vote:PhilyEc

.
Now what do you have on don?

@hohum, even I am impatient now. Give us you case.

[Budja]

Listen people will jump on you for posting something a little suss, especially when your following posts look bad as well.

Your appeal that you are just "a replacement with an opinion" doesn't mean we can't attack your views.

Anyway, I will wait.

[Budja]

So Juls claims to have sent a package to Rhinox and Rhinox didn't receive it?

^ Can you confirm if this is indeed the case, rhinox.

[Budja]

the little quip about being roleblocked is nonsensical because juls has plainly stated that she "sent" her package.

Maybe the mod didn't tell Juls she was roleblocked. Maybe it works differently.
I think this is a bit silly, personally.
Although, I do agree with you that Casey has been fairly uncertain/lacking in conviction for most of the game.

I want to know any(if any) information Juls has re. her sent package. Do you have any idea what you sent.
Also on thinking, I find it pretty unlikely that Rhinox-scum would lie about a package. Fake a one-shot cop or something simular maybe but what could scum get out of denial. I suspect Juls or Rhinox was blocked/affected in some way by something.

@Phily, hohum, POST, especially you hohum.

@mod, we have heard next to nothing from Skitzer, prod?

[Budja]

(@Juls, Now I understand why, I think. Well played )

Thank you, Rhinox. Since the package didn't explicitly say it came from Juls, then I understand why you would not speak in thread at the start. If Juls accepts your explanation, so will I.

On a side note, I had always thought Juls knew what was in the three packages and just not which one she would send. On a quick reread (and Juls's post I just saw in preview), I see I was wrong and so I think you should ignore most of what I have said on Juls's power so far.

[Budja]

Interesting, you do realise we could use easily use codes to communicate between two people as much as they like providing they share the text of one communique.

Decoding messages is alright but something tells me you wouldn't like us to do this.

[Budja]

@casey, if you "feeling" on don is more than gut, I would like some evidence.
Why is Phily "town", gut?

@Phily, You have failed to back up your claim, Phily, and if you can't seem to find anything on don or hohum beyond gut.

Do you still believe in your initial claim?

[Budja]

^ me too, although I will prob post here anyway .

[Budja]

Most of day 1 is easy to read and you can just skim it. The big points are the com-burning plan, no-lynch discussion and roff lying.

Also, I did mean theory.

[Budja]

Also it was a theory you were pretty damn sure of. Now lets get this straight, have you changed your mind or just don't want to read the thread (or other)?

[Budja]

@Phily

I want a straight answer to a simple question here.
Is you suspicions of one of don/hohum mostly a gut-feeling?

[Budja]

Its seems we have completed the circle of questions .

Two people throwing accusations at each other it does not mean both are scum just as Juls argued at the very start of this.
Even though I think most of what you are saying is wrong, you seem to really believe what you are saying. I am leaning towards misguided townie on you now,

unvote

.

I am not certain of any one person at the moment but a few are interesting me, you for one , don, Rhinox/Ecto. I thought day 2 would be more active than this but very little seems to have been discovered from the night.
Day 1 is not just gunk, I gave you a short list of the most relevant discussions, I suggest you follow it up and don't get me to scum-hunt for you.

[Budja]

Your welcome . Seriously, what is the town meant to do, ignore a scummy, illogical attack.

[Budja]

I told you the relevant parts of day 1.

[Budja]

@Flameaxe, note post #764. I would like to hear your suspicions too.

[Budja]

@Flameaxe, sorry I didn't notice that.

I wish you would make it more clear and mention hohum by name. I am not so keen on ambiguity in suspect lists. Do have any suspicions on anyone else?

[Budja]

So many secrets and I know none of them .

Any of this info give us a confirmed innocent?

[Budja]

I believe Juls to be town as:
1. Her role is likely confirmed and
2. Her role is an unlikely one for scum to have.

I see no reason to call Ecto/Rhinox confirmed. I am not saying I suspect Rhinox , he comes off pro-town to me, but he is not confirmed.

I don't think a no-lynch is necessary. We still have stuff to go on.

^ This.

[Budja]

It was generally agreed yesterday that any protective roles should target Juls. I assume that scum were discouraged by this.

Juls has admitted that her role may not always be pro-town, maybe scum thought the package would do something bad, or maybe scum can't roleblock.

[Budja]

If something is odd, by all means bring it up.

You don't need "permission" unless it is obviously information that should not be shared by all.

[Budja]

I disagree.

Unless their is a good reason, i.e. you don't want to reveal your role in thread, I see no reason not to post info in thread.

All town and scum with info > 2-3 town and maybe scum with info.

Of course, this could also depends on the information but I believe most information would be more likely to help the town than help the scum.

Casey states she finds something unusual, I say she shares it.

[Budja]

...
..
.

vote: Skitzer

.

[Budja]

Why claim don?

[Budja]

Well Skitzer, you have barely posted. You have had few views and done no scum-hunting.
I have just chosen my best option for now. Give me a reason to change.

also, claims sometimes help breathe life into dying games.

^ true for some roles, but for a mason, I am not so sure. I believe this claim could do more harm than good.

Anyway I think/hope Juls is going to breathe life into this game very soon anyway...

[Budja]

@mod: note sig

[Budja]

@rhinox, you are right I did vote Skitzer mostly to jumpstart the game . Reason I chose Skitzer are above your post.
But I don't think that was scummy and it is consistent with my playstyle.

Re. Juls, I find it odd that everyone was willing to trust Juls until SC posted now we have quite a few changes of heart. I agree with Rhinox here.

[Budja]

I was not buddying, I was making valid points. Protecting you night 1 was logical sending your PM on day 1 was not anti-town, your attack on Phily was good and exactly what I would have said, hence I quoted you.

Also some of those "buddying examples" are different in context -

Budja wrote:
(@Juls, Now I understand why, I think. Well played )

You asked me to claim with my codeword "glass", I assumed this was to distract me from knowing it was really Rhinox who you were questioning.

Budja wrote:
If Juls accepts your explanation, so will I.

Since you were the only one who could confirm Rhinox's PM and had more info than me, you had more insight than me here. Since I believe you town, I was going with your judgment here.

All fairly logical really. Not really buddying at all.

Now you claim everyone has a PR? Well I don't and I see that could make me seem suss. But there are games out there with only 1-2 vanilla roles. I could find one if you like.

[Budja]

"Gut" doesn't count for much unless you can back it up.

I have mostly believed you were town since your claim for reasons I have already stated. After Rhinox received his package and that was confirmed, I considered you highly likely town.
Your word then carried more weight with me.

But I stress again that many of the thing you labeled as possible buddying were simply sensible choices. Your views just often paralleled my own in those cases.

[Budja]

Agreeing is not equal to buddying.

[Budja]

I am still not really happy with a no-lynch.

What worries me it that there is a general lack of enthusiasm for scum-hunting with most people focusing on set-up analysis. (This isn't a new thing )

If the town believe it will be beneficial and with actual purpose , I guess I might go along with it but definitely not if it is the lazy way out.

Oh...maybe I haven't read back far enough, but then shouldn't we have examined anything about BSG?

Don't just talk about it...

Most of what BSG said was a long time ago and was focused on the whole roff/hohum debate. I think she was the first to mention roff could have lied but she did oppose the roff wagon.

[Budja]

You most certainly cannot assume anything.

What if roff was town? What if roff bussed hohum? All are certainly possible, even if not likely.

Also I suggest you reread BSG yourself rather than rely on my quick analysis.

---

Actually something has come to my attention, my role-PM suggests anti-town forces rather than specifically mentioning scum. Interesting...

[Budja]

Rhinox makes a good case here. I really wouldn't be surprised if Flameaxe is scum. He is a dead weight and scummy, so:

vote: Flameaxe

Also don was quite happy to vote for Reecer yesterday, if you are indeed partners I find this quite suss.

FoS: Don

@Juls, why the unvote? Was you vote not serious?

[Budja]

If it was entirely policy, I would be against it.

I find it scummy that your action now is so different is a similar scenario to the reecer bandwagon.

Another thing, you say you have a "lovers" type role. This role generally means that is one partner dies, so does the other, correct?
If this is correct, it makes your reecer vote very suss indeed.

[Budja]

Where are you getting this lovers business?

the role seems alot more like a "lovers" role if any of you are familiar with it

[Budja]

... and trying to mischaracterize the conversation about this issue.

Poor communication on your part rather than any fault of mine.

I was thinking that you and Flameaxe could be pulling a scum gambit, claiming to be "lovers" would reduce the chance of flameaxe been lynched and would appear suss as you didn't say so earlier. I can still see this as a possibility you are now backtracking from.

how is this scenario at all similar?

Scenario 1: Reecer is useless and lurks, he is bandwagoned.

Scenario 2: Flameaxe is useless and lurks, he is bandwagoned. Also he doesn't like the codes and shows strong anti-town action by self-voting.

Big difference .

[Budja]

to say that both Hohum and BSG were against roffman.

3)

You say that because they teamed up against roffman

, it might have been a good idea for hohum to kill BSG because BSG agreed with hohum.

the bolded is the part i have a rpoblem with. it is a misrep of what was said. they didn't "team up". bsg was against the roffman lynch. just because they agreed you seem to make this giant leap to "teamed up".

Ugh. It means the same thing. If two people are on different teams, and they aim for a common goal, that's called teaming up. You think hohum's guilty, I think roffman was guilty. What's your problem, seriously?

hohum believed roffman was scum and wanted him lynched.
BSG didn't want a roffman lynch and was a lot more cautious in her attitude.

Their goals were not similar at all.

[Budja]

Reecer was never going to respond to any pressure, it was a wagon to lynch at least as strong as the wagon on flameaxe is now.

Unless it is specifically stated in your PM, an unconfirmed mason could be scum. Your general attitude and actions have shown that you are quite uncertain of Flameaxe's alignment.

[Budja]

YOU brought up the idea of a lover. YOU were the only one to make any mention of it. There is no fault of you for claiming something that was completely not true? It's his fault for bad communication when you were the one who decided reading comprehension is silly?

YOU are wrong .

From don's post 957:
... the role seems alot more like a "lovers" role if any of you are familiar with it ...

And an unconfirmed mason can be town, what's your point? You're getting the point where you are pushing the discussion into trying to guess how the mod created the setup. I don't like that, stop. This really isn't the greatest game in the world for setup-speculation.

I was simply answering an open question by don.

Budja: As I've asked in thread to other people, please outline why a self-vote is so scummy. "Because." is not an acceptable answer.

It is usually stupid to selfvote as either scum or town, as your lynch will harm your team either way. You are been anti-town here and I have never said otherwise.

[Budja]

my general attitude? i have clearly stated how i feel. why do you try to switch the focus from what i have said to what you think my attitude reveals. i.e. you are trying to make my lack of knowledge concerning flame's alignment suspicious, when in fact, my lack of knowledge of his alignment supports the claim of a mason who "doesn't know the alignment of his partner." you seem to be casting unfounded suspicions based on your own speculation and passing it off as truth.

Yes, I did make assumptions but I do believe them to be true. Everyone makes assumptions of how and why people behave in the game.

Your lack of knowledge is not suss, and I never said it was.

A) This doesn't answer the question. Try again.
B) I'm anti-town to you. Alright. Elaborate.

You have yet to show anything beyond what the other have provided (which really isn't anything beyond your contribution *cough* *cough*).

A. I never said you self-vote was scummy, I said it was anti-town. So I can't answer your question as it is stated.

B. No, you are moderately scummy to me. Your self vote was anti-town because voting for yourself when you know that you are town is clearly not in the towns best interest. Same argument if you are scum except I don't mind then.

I have added a little speculation and show concern over don's actions. I can't really add anything as there is nothing to add.

Re: The first part - I accept my fault there, but if he outright claimed mason why would you jump to something that isn't mason and speculate if it was true? I haven't heard of many roles that act like a lover, but are called masons, I don't know about you.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lovers

Ok, looking at the wiki it seems they are multiple definitions but I thought Lovers were a type of mason that die together.

[Budja]

Interesting, you do realise we could use easily use codes to communicate between two people as much as they like providing they share the text of one communique.

Decoding messages is alright but something tells me you wouldn't like us to do this.

I remember thinking to myself, Why would town try to argue to disallow using codex after the mod explained it was allowable? Budja, feel free to answer.

I didn't know what a codex was or what you were doing. I assumed you were just decoding a code in the communique.

In a game where we know so little already, I highly doubt that masons are not the same alignment. Thats not a certainty. I am definately concerned about Coug and Budja. Moreso Budja than anything as I was already suspicious of him. I'm actually willing to vote him.

Vote Budja but

please don't end this day

until I hear from PhilyEc.

Well if you thought that then you shouldn't have voted Flameaxe to start with. I normally wouldn't be keen on attacking a mason but with so many PR's, I'm not so sure.

Looking for a quick lynch here, Juls?

I must admit my vote on Flameaxe is also partly motivated by avoiding a no-lynch ... no-one made the same complaint about either the reecer or roffman wagons.

[Budja]

@mod, Juls is voting me not vice versa.

[Budja]

So where did all the Budja hate come from then?

[Budja]

Juls, I know why you are attacking me and I have already responded to your accusations. To make myself clear, I didn't mean "hate" as in dislike there.

I think scum tend to attack stronger and defend weaker.

Thats your view, This is entirely a null-tell. When I have been scum, I have usually attacked weakly.

..weak effort at defending..

I pointed out logical reasons where you were wrong and why your attacks on me were invalid or purely "gut-based". You're attack hasn't been particularly strong and I haven't needed to defend myself much at all.

I am more concerned as to why Phily and don also share this view when they have never called actually called me scummy before. I can perhaps see why don would think so after our exchange, but I would like an explanation from Phily.

A game like this isnt user friendly either. I say we do a lynch on the more useless people just because theyre more likely to take advantage of this lack of posting.

Anyways, if we're going to lynch someone I'm hung between DJ and Budja.

So do both don and I classify as "useless people"?

I don't think Flameaxe or Juls are the lynch today. Flameaxe, I'm getting a Leans Town read on, and Juls I think is probably townie.

So who do you want lynched then?

[Budja]

In other news, I still don't understand what Juls sees in Budja. He's been friendly. And Juls says he's "buddying" with her, which, as far as I can tell, is something I'm doing too, because I have complete confidence that Juls is town.

But a lynch is better than no lynch. As such, put me down for trusting Juls's instincts.

Vote Budja

No Casey, that is a crap reason for a vote. You say you don't suspect me, then don't vote me. Juls attack on me seems to be largely "gut-fuelled" and me "buddying" (which I have already explained I am not). Trust yourself, stop been a blind follower.

I'm feeling very sure about Juls, Casey, FlameAxe and Rhinox being town, you two just stand out as being far more likely to me.

Are you sure your not just following popular opinion here. This contains no actual reasoning at all.

I would like a vote on Flameaxe or Skitzer at the moment. I cannot defend myself from the process of elimination and other players relying on Juls "gut".

A no lynch is a viable solution in THIS game but not most. If you have strong suspicions you should go with them but if you don't then a no lynch is better because otherwise you lose a potential townie.

So then I assume your suspicions against me are strong then?

It is irritating how willing people are in this game to blindly rely on their "gut" over any logic.

[Budja]

I'm still trying to fathom a reason for a BSG NK. Between her and the person she replaced, they only produced a total of 9 posts. There's no hint of power role breadcrumbing, and no vendetta against a specific player. In fact, there are no votes or strong statements of suspicion against anyone. The only statement of scumminess came against Hohum, yet she was quite opposed to a Roffman lynch or a Hohum lynch on D1. Since she wasn't an overly active contributor or a strong voice, I don't see how opposition to the two major wagons at the end of D1 could threaten any mafia group.

It just seems kinda... random.

SK comes to mind, but that would mean that the Mafia kill was blocked. The Mafia could also have decided to play WIFOM games with us.

That is possible, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a doc-type role.
I wouldn't get too fixated on the reasons behind BSG's death, it seems like a fairly random kill to me. Scum don't choose there kills to help the town.

Why skitzer?

Why not?

Skitzer has largely posted wishy-washy uncertain posts when he has posted at all.
Also, Skitzer, was pushing suspicion onto Juls (i.e saying it would be a good fakeclaim) after Coug voted for her. A Juls lynch would be great for scum with all the info she knows, (in the highly-likely case Juls is town).

Actually, thats a better case than I thought .

[Budja]

unvote, vote nolynch

No point slowing the game down on a formality I guess.

[Budja]

Calling me scummy for speeding up the inevitable is silly. I am sorry Juls, but I didn't read the thread very thoroughly and assumed everyone wanted the day over rather than the opposite.

It was monday morning when i voted AEST but that didn't occur to me anyway.

[Budja]

Well I didn't hammer, so you can't complain.

Good luck Juls,

[Budja]

I didn't look at the votecount, so you can call me out for being slack.

[Budja]

I agree that it would be good to hear what happened with Juls.
I also strongly agree that no-lynch is no longer a viable option.

I'll think I'll have to do a quick reread.

[Budja]

Well I am inclined to believe Juls over Phily here.

Really wish we had trackers right now...Seems like we lost a cop early also.

No ones voicing any opinions on what roles "could" exist and no ones really concentrating on one person. Either cop got no guilties (shitty cop at this point) or more likely the case, hes/shes dead.

This just screams scumslip and backtrack to me.

Vote:Phily

Who knew that Rhinox was a cop? Was this information that only Juls had?
I find it unlikely that Rhinox would confide in Phily.
Could we clear this up as soon as possible.

[Budja]

Oh please Juls, at the very least answer the questions I put out. The answers are important here.

It seems pretty clear from what you are saying that one of you and Phily are scum. So I vote Phily. Not really oppotunistic, just plain logical. What do you think of the quotes of Phily's? Even without your post, Phily looks pretty bad here.

I am sick of your "gut" votes. You have illogically fixated on me as scum. I can't defend myself from gut-feeling.

[Budja]

@Juls, the way you present your case on Phily made him seem obv scum, from your perspective at least, and his actions certainly support this as I have pointed out. Is there some reason I am more suspicious than him?
Also, could you please answer the questions I presented before.

@Casey, what night 1 claim? I don't really see any buddying.

The no-reveal mechanic has had fairly limited impact so far. Roffman is the only potential scum, Rhinox and BSG are most likely townies. Please don't leave, we have had a lot of replacements already.

I want to know from Phily as quick as possible the contents of the package he recieved and whether or not he knew Rhinox was a cop.

[Budja]

Ok, so it sounds like you did receive Juls' package then.

Juls claims you are a Jailer, is this true?
Could you also answer the other questions directed at you Phily.

[Budja]

Yeah, we should let don, izzy and skitzer comment too .

Juls, you make a great case on Phily, but you end up voting him for being anti-town. Do you actually believe your own case?

[Budja]

Didn't you read the "lets all wait for everyone to post before hammering part" Izzy. .

@Coug, Juls vote is not scummy, just unusual. She seemed to vote for Phily for comparativly minor reasons compared to the case she had made earlier.
I was wondering how reliable Juls' information was and if she was unsure.

[Budja]

You do realise that Phily's comments make it reasonably likely the mafia have seen at least some of yesterday's communiques.

[Budja]

Why am I scum? Why Juls, other than this gut feeling you seem to have?

I got your package. It is a death-reveal. I target a dead player, I see their alignment.
You should have targeted someone you trust, I did take back my idea of using your package as a vig.

[Budja]

roffman, it is. He would be my choice too. I'll send it in now.

Well I am not offended, just irritated.
I would like a skitzer/looker lynch. I made a case day 2 against him (I'll try and find it) and he fits it with your list.

vote: looker

[Budja]

No, you could be a mafia postman. Your role is confirmed, your alignment is not.

I have results back. roffman was neutral alignment. SK or survivor, I think.

Can you please use your own heads here. Don't just blindly follow Juls.
Why is Looker town now? Gut again or do you have actual evidence? Is everyone else on your list really confirmed?

I pretty much know nothing and I can't defend myself from a case I can't see.

[Budja]

We rely on Juls too much .

Maybe it is time to share some information among the town.

[Budja]

1.) Everyone has buddied with you by now. I did agree with you most of the time but it was because you gave good logic and I defended you day 1 as I didn't believe sending a communique early was scummy. Ecto's plan wasn't really that good then.

2.) How can you really eliminate so many people? It sounds unlikely to me.

3.) Sensible sharing of information helps town more than scum. Do you really want us to all be sheep following your decisions?

[Budja]

Can't we talk today and not have a quick lynch .

[Budja]

Anyway, roffman was probably an SK, anyone want to comment on that?.

my case on Skitzer:

[quote=Budja]
Skitzer has largely posted wishy-washy uncertain posts when he has posted at all.
Also, Skitzer, was pushing suspicion onto Juls (i.e saying it would be a good fakeclaim) after Coug voted for her. A Juls lynch would be great for scum with all the info she knows, (in the highly-likely case Juls is town).[/quote]

Preview Edit:
Juls, you feel more comfortable with my lynch than you did with Phily's, he was obv scum ,no doubt about it. You have extreme tunnel-vision here and it isn't helping.

If the whole town follows Juls here with no independent thought, I will be disappointed.

[Budja]

Vanilla townie

[Budja]

My role was already known.

I told you my result was "neutral" which means survivor or SK to me.

[Budja]

^ Actually I am also no longer the only vanilla, that weakens your case on me a bit.

I would really, really like to hear something from Looker.

[Budja]

@Juls, I got your package at the

END

of the night just as day started so I couldn't affect anything during the night.

[Budja]

Well, thats it for me.

Good luck Town. I think you ought to kill Skitzer tommorow. From what I see, he is prob the last scum left.

[Budja]

Well done Casey!

I knew roffman was the SK day 1, thats why I pushed so hard for his lynch. I was sure he would target me.

I posted a general message to Casey day 1 in case it was intercepted.

I was hoping the two 'factions', Ecto vs Juls would form with Casey on Ecto's side and me on Juls'. I never thought you would get so much trust from the town Juls. Well played.
Although you would have had a much better chance of lynching me more easily if you have created more of a case on me. My attack on flameaxe was probably the worst thing I did .

[Budja]

Also feel free to post the quicktopic.

[Budja]

If I have saved my power to read all communiques to day 2, that would have been very bad for the town. My inteceptions didn't help me at all .

@Rhinox, your code was the only one with could be broken through your hints and plenty of messages. If it wasn't for Skitzer's name, I couldn't have cracked it.

[Budja]

I thought you had sent roffman the communique until I checked .