Mini 751: Suzumiya Haruhi Mafia (OVER)

[veerus]

So anyone want to provide the cliff's notes for the story in question? I tried skimming the stuff that Tar linked to but I couldn't really follow it.

oh and,

FOS: forbiddanlight

.. standard procedure, really.

[veerus]

We have time. No need to rush the lynch, especially since it seems like we all agree that lynching a self-admitted "good for town" is, well, good for town. I am kind of puzzled at the speed of the wagon on Seraphim though. Same reasons -- we have time, so why the rush? This goes for everyone on the train, except FL, who I suppose felt the need to back up her verbal agreement with the actual FOS.

[veerus]

Except that lynching him would bring twilight which lets mafia kill people. Assuming standard ratio of mafia to town, dropping the town to 10 on a "night 0" is not a good idea by any means.

[veerus]

I'm not sold on malt's scumminess yet... not all hammerers are scummy, but I'd like to know his reasons for wanting to hammer.

[veerus]

UnFoS FoS:Malthusis

Vote:Seraphim

Tar ignored my vote on Seraphim so I'm voting him now but I'm gonna FoS Malthusis because of the whole "It's not a hammer so I can FoS. Why are you so afraid to hammer?

You

do

realize that FOS's are votes today and votes are fos's, right?

[veerus]

@veerus: I practically saw 5 people before me vote Seraphim (most without any objections at all) so everyone made it seem like it was going to happen anyways. I waited to see if anyone had any objections (Percy did). If I really wanted to maliciously hammer him, why would I wait to do it?

Ok. In my opinion that's not scummy. If anything, it's a little.. um, lemming-ish.

[veerus]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester

We basically are saying if Seraphim is a jester, SCREW this, he can win, and then we'll play real mafia. I suppose perhaps given the MS III jesters, we could wait til D2, but still :S.

This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.

[veerus]

This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.

Here's the deal, such role speculation is somewhat scummy. To be fair, I can think of 4 characters off the top of my head who could fit that bill. If you just meant wondering if there is a character, not the name, then it's not so bad.

That's all I needed. If there is/are character(s) whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS. If there are, then Seraphim's claim and his subsequent lynch make sense.

Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.

Never said I wouldn't support the Seraphim lynch. I merely said I don't want it yet. I like discussion. L-2 is very easy to make L-0. L-1 just makes it easy for scum to end discussion.

Was this before or after your bandwagon vote on him?

[veerus]

Given FL's role name and name of the game, could this disappearance have been planned?

[veerus]

I'm confuzzled. Is seraphim lynched? If so, where is his death post thingy. Also, are we screwed cause suzumiya is dead already?

In Tar games, lynchee's alignment/role is revealed at the start of day 2 after roles are submitted and resolved.

[veerus]

What are the chances that Seraphim was scum? I'm starting to think it's quite possible. He must've known what would happen with his lynch and that it would leave the town in disarray.

[veerus]

FL's disappearance was likely scripted. It's way too unlikely for someone to use an instant-vig kill on the NAMESAKE character who then disappears without a trace which is also consistent with the name of the game.

Good thing the global roleblock is in effect at some point in the future.

I'm having problems with Seraphim's role. 1) his ability may be great for town in the future. But 2) the town ended day 1 super-fast based on his claim and got absolutely no information out of it. On top of that, we lost 2 townies overnight. How pro-town his ability could've been? It must be AWESOME to justify the chance of losing 2 townies. Tar MUST have thought of all this. And I just can't think of a pro-town ability that would be that GREAT to compensate for reducing town to 8 on D2 while not being game-breaking, especially in a mini.

So based on that line of reasoning, I'm inclined to think that there were at least one scum on the Seraphim bandwagon. With 3 of the bandwagoners out of the game, our search is down to 3 - afatchic, malt and budja. My money is on at least 1 of those 3 being scum. I'd like to see those 3 people give us an extensive post of what they think about who could be scum.

[veerus]

Veerus, ortolan attempted a hammer. Why are you not suspicious of him? Afatchic seems to have gone partially crazy yesterday, and I'm not really sure why he was talking about vig discussion...

Right, I forgot about that.. I was just looking at Tar's vote counts. Ortotan should answer my previous post as well.

[veerus]

i think i would be ok with lynching zwet because afatchic was fairly scummy early on and zwet's play isn't helping though it's somewhat consistent with his meta so we have to rely on the original player's actions to some degree

[veerus]

V/LA-ish for the next few days... I'm ok with a zwet lynch but I'd like to re-read the last few pages later

[veerus]

Or one of his infamous hints for the town like those in MS3.

This isn't mind screw though... it's a more straightforward game with a lot of power roles.

[veerus]

Veerus, outguessing the mod is not good. Why are you assuming that there aren't crazy freak mechanics? And it's not a misrep, T.

Because he said so?

[veerus]

Just because he always plays scummy in EVERY game, does not mean that he's scum in EVERY game. However considering his predecessor was pretty scummy, I'm not willing to take that chance in this particular game.

fos: zwet

[veerus]

Just because he always plays scummy in EVERY game, does not mean that he's scum in EVERY game. However considering his predecessor was pretty scummy, I'm not willing to take that chance in this particular game

This is extremely poor justification for hammering prior to the opportunity for a claim. Ironically one of the most risky things you could do, if you were town, although I highly doubt you are.

I've been saying that he's one of my top targets since the day started. Though I was pretty sure I was putting him at L-1... Either way, I'm ok with his lynch no matter who ended up hammering.

[veerus]

wow....... that's some crazy stuff... i'll have to review the thread and post later

[veerus]

whoops, sorry, got busy yesterday.. i'm not flaking, will try to post today for sure

[veerus]

heh sorry.. today maybe almost possibly.. i'm about to go on vacation in a few days so it's a little hectic.. i'll def post before i go otherwise you can lynch me for obvscummery

[veerus]

ok i've read stuff, will make a post now

[veerus]

Ok... let's start..

First, some facts:

1. Based on role information I have, every player has 2 "states" and people in opposite states have full protection from the other's abilities. This may explain why we had so many kills N1 and so few in N2. Which brings me to..

2. 7:2:2:1 setup is insane. That would mean that we're currently in a 2:2:1 with the 1 being a townie which is an unbelievable D3 scenario.

3. Ortolan killed FL.. that's obvious. The fact that she was Suzumiya Haruhi seems like a freaky coincidence at this point. However, since his kill is rapid, why was there no death D2? Probably because he targeted someone in a different state than he is (see #1).

Anyway, so let's recap what happened so far.

PJ calls Malt/Percy a scum team out of the blue, claims he has reason to believe why and never states what it is. On top of that, he claims he tried killing Percy last night which doesn't really tell me how that helped him decide that Percy is scum.

Then Budja claims cop also claiming a guilty on percy. There are several problems I have with this and what followed it:
- a simple cop claim is too simple for a game with 'complicated' roles where even a doctor role has a twist on it, unless he's a mafia cop
- this seems over-orchestrated by a scum team.. first PJ, then Budja, then PJ agreeing and FOS'ing Percy to start the day
- Budja, probably realizing that they may have overplayed their hand, unvotes
- all of these suspicions and hindsight conclusions are confirmed by....

Percy counterclaims Budja's target with a townie copier role. This claim makes more sense, especially after Budja's claim. In addition, the "Alpha Mafia" role, if true, supports PJ's sudden suggestion that there are two scum teams. Then, to further support the idea that Budja is lying and Percy isn't, Budja's response to Percy's claim is very fishy:

Wow, that is one nice fake-claim.

You are a "watcher/cop" type role then. Oh and look, you just happen have a guilty on me . How very... convenient.

You probably have a mafia safeclaim/falseclaim power similar to Ort. Tar made a nice one for you, but it is still a lie.

If Budja really DID investigate Percy and come up with a guilty result, why would he assume that Percy's claim means that, if anything, he's a "watcher"? Not to outguess the mod or anything, but a watcher mafia makes absolutely no sense to me. Which further makes me think that Budja got caught in a lie and is floundering for solutions to explain it. At which point...

PJ tries to come to the rescue, continuing with the idea that he tried killing Percy (which didn't suceed because of #1) but adding that he's a bulletproof jack of all trades. He also mentions that, all of a sudden, he thinks that Percy has an ability similar to Ortolan's (an odd thing to assume since he admitted to not doing any investigations/tracking/watching last night). This to me looks like scum whose plan backfired and they're now floundering helplessly.

In conclusion, Percy's analysis in 298 is dead on.

FOS: Budja

[veerus]

Uhh... Tar.. I FOS'd Budja....... and so did Percy....... I hope that's a mistake, otherwise....... I thought this wasn't mind screw.

Fixed.

Also, now that I think about it, every relevant action for today is now in... starting Day 4 now. - Tar

[veerus]

PJ isn't lying. If you recall, roffman was a global role blocker who obviously picked night 3 to use the global roleblock. Everyone failed his ability this past night.

With that said, the move for today is obvious.

vote: panzer

If this doesn't end the game, then we'll figure out our course of action later.

Yes malt, you should claim as your low inactivity is making me think you're some sort of an anti-town.

[veerus]

Percy, why didn't you wait for Malt to claim?

[veerus]

fyi, see sig

[veerus]

Due to me flying out tomorrow, I will

vote: Percy

for his quick hammer. The rest of you should probably discuss this a little more to avoid another quick day.

[veerus]

I'm back. I'll try to re-read today.

[veerus]

Why does everyone think I'm scum? Maybe it's because I'm jetlagged or I skimmed too quickly, but I haven't really seen a case on me.

Personally I think TOD is scum. The reason? His claim. We were warned before the game started that this game will have highly complicated roles with no vanillas. A "presumably" vanilla townie with no real abilities 5 days into the game seems extremely fishy to me. In addition, I have further proof -- see claim below.

Since we're in LYLO, I'll claim.

I am Kuyoh Suoh, the townie phaser. Apparently I'm a humanoid interface constructed by the Sky Canopy Domain with orders to preserve nonhostiles. As long as I'm in the game, players with phase counters have protection from players with no phase counters and vice versa. Each day, I can choose a player on whom I can place said phase counter. This ability resolves as a roleblock. I have targeted: afatchick on D1 (due to replacement, I'm not sure if this townie kidnapper used his ability, therefore there may be a phase counter floating around I'm not aware of), Panzerjager on D2, D3 was roleblocked by the global roleblock, then TOD right before I left (therefore it took effect this past twilight).

Working on the assumption that I'm the only one with ability to play with this phasing thing (since no one really reacted to the first time I mentioned it), I believe that there was no mafia kill yesterday because TOD was phased while everyone in the game was unphased therefore gaining protection from his kill.

Therefore,

vote: TOD

[veerus]

erm.. did I miss a day? Hmm... I need to label my PM's better. (sorry Tar.. I imagine it's twice as confusing for you!)

I did try to counter Malthusis D3, but was told that my action was roleblocked. I reviewed my PM's again and I tried to phase him on D4 (when did he say he had the counter? I must've missed it). Tar also implied that I would not be told if my counter would have no effect (as per malt's untargetable at night claim). Where did he claim that he had the counter?

TOD was phased D5 before I left.

It makes sense that TOD tried to kill you yesterday since you were the only truly confirmed town and failed due to phasing. At least that's my theory.. what's yours?

[veerus]

...when was malthusis confirmed town, veerus?

He wasn't.

[veerus]

@ToD: What you said at least clears up what happened to the mafia kills. I'm starting to think that veerus is probably last scum.

If on Day 3, there really were 4 scum out (which by all means there practically was) that means that only 1 person out of the group of 5 wasn't scum.

The group of 5 was: (for reference)

Panzer (scum)
Budja (scum)
Percy (scum)
Me
Veerus

Obviously I don't think I'm scum, and I'm starting to have a hunch veerus is the last scum after all. Therefore I will

Vote: Veerus

I did miss this at first.

Your theory has one, rather large, hole. TOD was also a non-dead player at the time meaning there were 6 players on that list with 2 not scum. You're a good enough player, I think, not to miss this which makes me think you're omitting this fact on purpose to convince the town to mislynch me for the lose.

Since the phase counter was placed on you and TOD, the lack of kills could be attributed to either one of you. Tar implied that I wouldn't get a message if my counter had no effect as you implied by your untargetable claim.

There's only one thing that doesn't make sense to me. If I countered Panzer, he should not have been able to jail TOD... I'm not sure what to think of it except to assume that TOD or Panzer started with a phase counter (2nd counter removes all counters) or I was blocked. Let's think on this:

1) I was blocked - this seems unlikely to me as Tar seems to have placed an emphasis on abilities affecting other active players and not being blocked.
2) Panzer started with a counter (or acquired one prior to the action in question) - this also seems unlikely as the lack of kill on day 4 seems to imply that he were unable to make the kills because he was the only one with a counter at the time (plus malt after D4).
3) TOD started with a counter (or acquired one prior to the action in question) - this seems the most plausible explanation. Which means my counter placed a 2nd counter on TOD thus removing all counters.

Assuming this line of thinking is plausible, malt is the only living player with a counter on him. Lack of a kill since D4 seems to support this theory especially when you consider that TOD wasn't around during twilight of Day 4.

I would like to see what DGB/Seraphim think as the confirmed townspeople. But I'll

unvote

for now.

[veerus]

That was addressed to Seraphim.

[veerus]

I'm leaning toward malthusis myself.

[veerus]

Isn't Malt gone at this point? Do we need a replacement?

Also, aren't we in LYLO? I don't know what the theory is for 3town v 1mafia, but does it make sense to no-lynch and see who dies (if anyone?)

[veerus]

Nod, I wasn't planning to. You're town and TOD already has a counter.

vote: malthusis

[veerus]

wee i felt useful in this game.. phasing out 2 scum (well, technically 1) and getting correct sucmmy reads on just about all others... gg all

[veerus]

It worked out with me staying alive the whole game that I was able to phase out most people at the end except for confirmed townies. And phasing malthusis wasn't luck. He was the only target that made sense at the time with Seraphim being confirmed, Percy being the obvious lynch the following day for the quick hammer and TOD not being back yet. After having wasted my initial phase out on someone who immediately got lynched, I wasn't about to waste another on Percy.